mirror of
https://github.com/theodore-song/polymarket-analyst.git
synced 2026-07-28 08:27:45 +00:00
Add peer-aware emotional agent behavior
This commit is contained in:
Theodore Song
+65
-11
@@ -726,7 +726,7 @@ footer{margin-top:34px;padding-top:22px;border-top:1px solid var(--border);color
|
||||
</section>
|
||||
|
||||
<footer>
|
||||
Build growth-tune+mobile-sync · Paper trading only · Live prices from Polymarket's public Gamma API · Not financial advice ·
|
||||
Build peer-emotion-agents · Paper trading only · Live prices from Polymarket's public Gamma API · Not financial advice ·
|
||||
<a class="market-link" href="https://github.com/theodore-song/polymarket-analyst" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Source on GitHub</a>
|
||||
</footer>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
@@ -1143,9 +1143,19 @@ function recentReturnDelta(p){
|
||||
if(snaps.length<2)return 0;
|
||||
return (snaps[snaps.length-1].return_pct||0)-(snaps[0].return_pct||0);
|
||||
}
|
||||
function emotionalState(ret,trail,trend,rank){
|
||||
if(ret<-18)return {mood:"alarmed",urgency:0.95,label:"Crisis pressure"};
|
||||
if(ret<-8&&trail>10)return {mood:"frustrated",urgency:0.82,label:"Comeback urgency"};
|
||||
if(trail>14)return {mood:"impatient",urgency:0.78,label:"Leaderboard envy"};
|
||||
if(trend>2)return {mood:"confident",urgency:0.62,label:"Hot hand"};
|
||||
if(rank===1)return {mood:"protective",urgency:0.38,label:"Defending lead"};
|
||||
if(ret<0)return {mood:"restless",urgency:0.58,label:"Need progress"};
|
||||
return {mood:"focused",urgency:0.50,label:"Focused"};
|
||||
}
|
||||
function adaptiveDecision(cfg,p,rank,total,leaderEq){
|
||||
const eq=equity(p),ret=(eq/p.starting_balance-1)*100,trail=((leaderEq||eq)-eq)/p.starting_balance*100;
|
||||
const trend=recentReturnDelta(p);
|
||||
const emo=emotionalState(ret,trail,trend,rank);
|
||||
let minConv=cfg.minConv??0,maxNew=cfg.maxNew??12,maxFrac=cfg.maxFrac??0.34,reserve=0.07,mode="Balanced",reason="following its base strategy while keeping enough cash for better entries.";
|
||||
if(rank===1){
|
||||
mode="Defend";minConv+=3;maxNew=Math.max(2,maxNew-1);maxFrac*=0.88;reserve=0.10;
|
||||
@@ -1165,9 +1175,19 @@ function adaptiveDecision(cfg,p,rank,total,leaderEq){
|
||||
mode="Crisis Guard";minConv+=12;maxNew=1;maxFrac=Math.min(maxFrac*0.45,0.035);reserve=0.20;
|
||||
reason="down more than 18%, so it stops chasing, keeps more cash, and only allows one high-conviction recovery trade.";
|
||||
}
|
||||
if(emo.mood==="impatient"||emo.mood==="frustrated"){
|
||||
minConv-=2;maxNew+=1;maxFrac*=1.08;reserve=Math.max(0.04,reserve-0.015);
|
||||
reason+=` Emotion layer: ${emo.label.toLowerCase()} makes it seek extra upside, but only inside the caps.`;
|
||||
}else if(emo.mood==="confident"){
|
||||
maxNew+=1;maxFrac*=1.05;
|
||||
reason+=` Emotion layer: confidence lets it press winners a little harder.`;
|
||||
}else if(emo.mood==="alarmed"){
|
||||
maxNew=1;maxFrac=Math.min(maxFrac,0.035);reserve=Math.max(reserve,0.20);
|
||||
reason+=` Emotion layer: alarm keeps it from revenge trading.`;
|
||||
}
|
||||
if((p.cash/Math.max(eq,1))<0.12){maxNew=Math.max(1,Math.min(maxNew,2));reason+=" Cash is tight, so new entries are rationed.";}
|
||||
const maxCap=cfg.kind==="whale"?0.34:0.12;
|
||||
return {mode,reason,minConv:Math.max(0,Math.round(minConv)),maxNew:Math.max(1,Math.round(maxNew)),maxFrac:+Math.min(maxCap,Math.max(0.01,maxFrac)).toFixed(3),reserve};
|
||||
return {mode,reason,emotion:emo.mood,urgency:+emo.urgency.toFixed(2),minConv:Math.max(0,Math.round(minConv)),maxNew:Math.max(1,Math.round(maxNew)),maxFrac:+Math.min(maxCap,Math.max(0.01,maxFrac)).toFixed(3),reserve};
|
||||
}
|
||||
const stopKey=(posOrId)=>typeof posOrId==="string"?posOrId:String(posOrId.asset||posOrId.market_id||"");
|
||||
const hasStoppedToday=(p,posOrId)=>p.stopped&&p.stopped[stopKey(posOrId)]===logDay();
|
||||
@@ -1343,12 +1363,41 @@ function markToMarket(p,priceMap,cfg=null,{policyExits=false}={}){
|
||||
}
|
||||
p.positions=stillOpen;
|
||||
}
|
||||
function openPositions(p,cfg,rankedSugs,focus,decision,avoidMarketIds){
|
||||
function peerMarketStats(st,selfId){
|
||||
const stats={};
|
||||
AGENTS.forEach(a=>{
|
||||
if(a.id===selfId)return;
|
||||
const p=st.agents&&st.agents[a.id]; if(!p)return;
|
||||
const ret=(equity(p)/Math.max(p.starting_balance||STARTING_BALANCE,1)-1)*100;
|
||||
(p.positions||[]).forEach(pos=>{
|
||||
const id=pos.market_id||pos.asset; if(!id)return;
|
||||
const key=`${id}:${pos.side}`;
|
||||
const opp=`${id}:${pos.side==="YES"?"NO":"YES"}`;
|
||||
if(!stats[key])stats[key]={same:0,samePnl:0,bestRet:-Infinity,names:[]};
|
||||
stats[key].same++;stats[key].samePnl+=Number(pos.unrealized_pnl||0);stats[key].bestRet=Math.max(stats[key].bestRet,ret);stats[key].names.push(a.name);
|
||||
if(!stats[opp])stats[opp]={same:0,samePnl:0,bestRet:-Infinity,names:[]};
|
||||
stats[opp].opposite=(stats[opp].opposite||0)+1;
|
||||
stats[opp].oppositePnl=(stats[opp].oppositePnl||0)+Number(pos.unrealized_pnl||0);
|
||||
});
|
||||
});
|
||||
return stats;
|
||||
}
|
||||
function peerAdjustedSuggestion(s,peer){
|
||||
const m=(peer&&peer[`${s.market_id}:${s.side}`])||{};
|
||||
let boost=0,peerNote="";
|
||||
if(m.same&&m.samePnl>50){boost+=Math.min(8,2+m.same*1.5);peerNote=`peer confirmation from ${m.names.slice(0,3).join(", ")}`;}
|
||||
if(m.same&&m.samePnl< -50){boost-=Math.min(10,3+m.same*2);peerNote=`peer warning: same-side holders are losing`;}
|
||||
if(m.opposite&&m.oppositePnl>50){boost-=Math.min(12,4+m.opposite*2);peerNote=`peer warning: opposite-side holders are winning`;}
|
||||
if(m.bestRet>8&&m.same){boost+=3;peerNote=peerNote||`leaderboard winner also owns this side`;}
|
||||
return Object.assign({},s,{peer_boost:boost,peer_note:peerNote,peer_conviction:+(Number(s.conviction||0)+boost).toFixed(1)});
|
||||
}
|
||||
function openPositions(p,cfg,rankedSugs,focus,decision,avoidMarketIds,peerStats=null){
|
||||
const d=decision||{minConv:cfg.minConv,maxNew:cfg.maxNew,maxFrac:cfg.maxFrac,reserve:0.05};
|
||||
p.lastDecision=decision||null;
|
||||
if((p.positions||[]).length>=MAX_STRATEGY_POSITIONS)return [];
|
||||
const cands=rankedSugs.filter(s=>(s.side==="YES"||s.side==="NO")&&s.conviction>=d.minConv
|
||||
&&Math.abs(s.edge)>=MIN_ENTRY_EDGE&&!hasPosition(p,s.market_id)&&!hasStoppedToday(p,s.market_id)&&(focus==="All"||!focus||s.category===focus));
|
||||
const cands=rankedSugs.map(s=>peerAdjustedSuggestion(s,peerStats)).filter(s=>(s.side==="YES"||s.side==="NO")&&s.peer_conviction>=d.minConv
|
||||
&&Math.abs(s.edge)>=MIN_ENTRY_EDGE&&!hasPosition(p,s.market_id)&&!hasStoppedToday(p,s.market_id)&&(focus==="All"||!focus||s.category===focus))
|
||||
.sort((a,b)=>(b.peer_conviction-a.peer_conviction)||((b.peer_boost||0)-(a.peer_boost||0)));
|
||||
const avoid=avoidMarketIds||new Set();
|
||||
const ordered=cands.filter(s=>!avoid.has(s.market_id)).concat(cands.filter(s=>avoid.has(s.market_id)));
|
||||
let opened=0,openedIds=[];
|
||||
@@ -1359,7 +1408,9 @@ function openPositions(p,cfg,rankedSugs,focus,decision,avoidMarketIds){
|
||||
if(investable<=50)break;
|
||||
let frac;
|
||||
if(cfg.flat){frac=d.maxFrac;}
|
||||
else{const base=(s.conviction/100)*Math.min(1,Math.abs(s.edge)/EDGE_SCALE);frac=Math.min(d.maxFrac,cfg.kelly*base);}
|
||||
else{const base=(s.peer_conviction/100)*Math.min(1,Math.abs(s.edge)/EDGE_SCALE);frac=Math.min(d.maxFrac,cfg.kelly*base);}
|
||||
if(s.peer_boost<0)frac*=0.82;
|
||||
if(s.peer_boost>0&&decision&&decision.urgency>0.65)frac*=1.08;
|
||||
let stake=Math.min(eq*frac,investable);
|
||||
if(stake<50)continue;
|
||||
const entry=s.entry_price; if(entry<=0||entry>=1)continue;
|
||||
@@ -1369,10 +1420,11 @@ function openPositions(p,cfg,rankedSugs,focus,decision,avoidMarketIds){
|
||||
p.positions.push({market_id:s.market_id,question:s.question,side:s.side,shares,
|
||||
token_id:(s.side==="YES"?s.clob_yes:s.clob_no)||null,
|
||||
entry_price:+entry.toFixed(4),current_price:+entry.toFixed(4),cost,value:cost,
|
||||
original_shares:shares,original_cost:cost,unrealized_pnl:0,conviction:s.conviction,category:s.category,opened_at:cycleIso(),url:s.url||"",
|
||||
original_shares:shares,original_cost:cost,unrealized_pnl:0,conviction:s.peer_conviction,category:s.category,opened_at:cycleIso(),url:s.url||"",
|
||||
peer_note:s.peer_note||"",
|
||||
gain_stops:{},stop_losses:{}});
|
||||
p.history.push({date:logDay(),action:"OPEN",question:s.question,side:s.side,
|
||||
detail:`${decision?decision.mode+" mode — ":""}Bought ${shares} ${s.side} '${s.question.slice(0,40)}' @ ${pct(entry)} for ${fmtUSD(cost)}`});
|
||||
detail:`${decision?decision.mode+" mode — ":""}Bought ${shares} ${s.side} '${s.question.slice(0,40)}' @ ${pct(entry)} for ${fmtUSD(cost)}${s.peer_note?` (${s.peer_note})`:""}`});
|
||||
opened++;openedIds.push(s.market_id);
|
||||
}
|
||||
return openedIds;
|
||||
@@ -1660,7 +1712,7 @@ async function backtestWeek(st){
|
||||
for(const cfg of AGENTS.filter(a=>a.kind==="strategy")){
|
||||
const p=st.agents[cfg.id];
|
||||
markToMarket(p,priceMap,cfg,{policyExits:true});
|
||||
openPositions(p,cfg,cfg.rank(sugs),focus,null,claimedMarkets).forEach(id=>claimedMarkets.add(id));
|
||||
openPositions(p,cfg,cfg.rank(sugs),focus,null,claimedMarkets,peerMarketStats(st,cfg.id)).forEach(id=>claimedMarkets.add(id));
|
||||
recordSnapshot(p);
|
||||
}
|
||||
const copyPick=chooseCopycatLeader(st);
|
||||
@@ -1713,7 +1765,7 @@ async function runDailyCycle(){
|
||||
markToMarket(p,priceMap,cfg,{policyExits:true});
|
||||
const rank=preBoard.findIndex(x=>x.id===cfg.id)+1||preBoard.length;
|
||||
const decision=adaptiveDecision(cfg,p,rank,preBoard.length,leaderEq);
|
||||
openPositions(p,cfg,cfg.rank(sugs),focus,decision,claimedMarkets).forEach(id=>claimedMarkets.add(id));
|
||||
openPositions(p,cfg,cfg.rank(sugs),focus,decision,claimedMarkets,peerMarketStats(st,cfg.id)).forEach(id=>claimedMarkets.add(id));
|
||||
recordSnapshot(p);
|
||||
}
|
||||
// 2) copycat shadows the in-house agent with the strongest MACD/momentum score
|
||||
@@ -1809,7 +1861,8 @@ function bestAndWorst(p){
|
||||
function decisionSummary(p){
|
||||
const d=p.lastDecision;
|
||||
if(!d)return "No live adaptation yet; this agent is still using its base rulebook.";
|
||||
return `${d.mode} mode: ${d.reason} Limits now: ${d.maxNew} new trade${d.maxNew===1?"":"s"}, max ${(d.maxFrac*100).toFixed(1)}% per position${d.minConv?`, conviction ${d.minConv}+`:""}.`;
|
||||
const emotion=d.emotion?` Emotion: ${d.emotion}${d.urgency!=null?` (${Math.round(d.urgency*100)}% urgency)`:""}.`:"";
|
||||
return `${d.mode} mode: ${d.reason}${emotion} Limits now: ${d.maxNew} new trade${d.maxNew===1?"":"s"}, max ${(d.maxFrac*100).toFixed(1)}% per position${d.minConv?`, conviction ${d.minConv}+`:""}.`;
|
||||
}
|
||||
function renderAgentBrief(cfg,p,st){
|
||||
const root=$("agentBrief"); if(!root)return;
|
||||
@@ -2468,6 +2521,7 @@ function renderPositions(positions){
|
||||
return `<div class="pos"><div>
|
||||
<div class="pq">${title}</div>
|
||||
<div class="sub">${p.category?`<span class="cat-badge" style="background:${col}22;color:${col}">${esc(p.category)}</span> `:""}${p.shares} ${p.side} @ ${Math.round(p.entry_price*100)}¢ → ${Math.round(p.current_price*100)}¢</div>
|
||||
${p.peer_note?`<div class="sub">Peer read: ${esc(p.peer_note)}</div>`:""}
|
||||
<div class="sub">${esc(stopLossLabel(p))}</div>
|
||||
<div class="sub">${esc(gainStopLabel(p))}</div>
|
||||
<div class="sub"><a class="market-link" href="${esc(positionUrl(p))}" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Open exact market</a></div>
|
||||
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user