Share one-hour maker research across agents

This commit is contained in:
Theodore Song
2026-08-19 16:12:23 -04:00
parent b8415dc750
commit 846b3fd5ba
4 changed files with 273 additions and 49 deletions
+16 -7
View File
@@ -15,7 +15,7 @@ https://polymarket-site-eta.vercel.app/personal.html
The site fetches live Polymarket markets, generates agent suggestions, lets you
run frequent paper cycles, and syncs the shared arena state through Neon or
Vercel Blob. Build 67 also installs an offline app shell and caches timestamped
Vercel Blob. Build 68 also installs an offline app shell and caches timestamped
market snapshots. During an outage, cycles continue locally; cached entries are
allowed for 90 minutes, older snapshots become mark-only, and all cached data
expires after 24 hours.
@@ -26,7 +26,7 @@ team names, Over/Under, or another pair are rejected instead of being silently
reinterpreted as Yes/No. The same semantic check applies to complete event
bundles and the offline evaluators.
Build 67 ranks the competition by each agent's return since Strategy 56 began.
Build 68 ranks the competition by each agent's return since Strategy 56 began.
Historical replay equity remains visible for context, but it no longer makes an
agent look like the current leader when the live adaptive strategy is losing.
@@ -119,15 +119,24 @@ produced adverse one-leg inventory. Wider quotes traded less but remained
negative. Strategy 56 therefore does not risk paper capital on an unproven
maker rule.
Value Hunter now tracks up to six zero-capital shadow quote pairs selected by
the shared reward-book audit. A later live
Run `npm run evaluate:reward-maker` to stress current reward-qualified books
against 30 days of token history. The August 19 comparison found zero passing
candidates at a three-hour exit window. At one hour, 2 of 24 current candidates
passed the chronological path screen at 25% of the present reward estimate, but
both did so without an adverse historical touch; this prioritizes shadow
research and does not authorize capital.
Maker research version 2 lets all ten agents split distinct zero-capital shadow
quote pairs selected by the shared reward-book audit. Token histories are fetched
in batches, so the learner no longer silently ignores quotes after the first ten
markets. A later live
cycle must still verify each touch from public CLOB price history or a current
book cross. A three-hour executable exit grades one-sided touches after a
book cross. A one-hour executable exit grades one-sided touches after a
conservative half-cent cost, while paired touches and unfilled attempts are also
retained. Results are clustered by Polymarket event. Capital exposure can only
retained in one shared cross-agent ledger and clustered by Polymarket event. Capital exposure can only
resume after at least 20 current-strategy event clusters in the matching
category, spread, and estimated reward-yield cohorts have positive 90% confidence
bounds and at least three completed pairs, with any mature losing cohort acting as a veto. There is
bounds and at least three distinct-event completed pairs, with any mature losing cohort acting as a veto. There is
no capital-backed exploration lane. Existing paper inventory from prior builds
is still reconciled honestly. The engine does not credit hypothetical rewards.
See Polymarket's official [fees](https://docs.polymarket.com/trading/fees),