diff --git a/README.md b/README.md index 2cb1fd0..5f92312 100644 --- a/README.md +++ b/README.md @@ -15,7 +15,7 @@ https://polymarket-site-eta.vercel.app/personal.html The site fetches live Polymarket markets, generates agent suggestions, lets you run frequent paper cycles, and syncs the shared arena state through Neon or -Vercel Blob. Build 43 also installs an offline app shell and caches timestamped +Vercel Blob. Build 44 also installs an offline app shell and caches timestamped market snapshots. During an outage, cycles continue locally; cached entries are allowed for 90 minutes, older snapshots become mark-only, and all cached data expires after 24 hours. @@ -26,7 +26,7 @@ small samples toward neutral, caps sizing changes to 0.68x-1.30x, and reserves 15% of candidates for deterministic exploration so a stale regime cannot become permanent. -Strategy 40 treats each binary stake as capable of falling to zero even when the +Strategy 42 treats each binary stake as capable of falling to zero even when the 18% stop cannot fill. New core positions are capped at 2.5%-4% of equity and aggressive positions at 3%-5%, with lower limits for near-term, extreme-price, reversal, and fast-moving setups. Oversized positions inherited from older @@ -55,7 +55,7 @@ evidence. Set `EVAL_MARKETS`, `EVAL_CONCURRENCY`, `EVAL_HORIZONS`, or `EVAL_COST_CENTS` to change the audit. The first 80-market audit found that reversal signals lost 4.34% on average in both chronological partitions, while crypto and longshot samples were also -negative overall. Strategy 40 therefore blocks reversal and sports-trend entries outside the fixed +negative overall. Strategy 42 therefore blocks reversal and sports-trend entries outside the fixed 15% exploration lane and applies modest sizing penalties to crypto and longshots. It does not boost any rule from this audit because no positive rule was robust across the chronological split. @@ -66,23 +66,23 @@ segment and averaged -4.13%. Sports trends were negative in train and test and averaged -3.53% at 72 hours. Politics trends were the sole cohort with positive row-level returns in all three 72-hour segments, but its market-cluster interval still crossed zero; that supports a longer hold test, not a larger entry bet. -Strategy 40 gives Politics trend positions that 72-hour observation window before +Strategy 42 gives Politics trend positions that 72-hour observation window before ordinary signal exits. Stops, profit locks, settlement handling, and risk-budget reductions remain immediate. -Strategy 40 also subtracts a half-cent round-trip cost when grading each live +Strategy 42 also subtracts a half-cent round-trip cost when grading each live walk-forward signal. Confidence uses the largest independent matching bucket, not the sum of five overlapping feature buckets, and evidence from older engine versions is down-weighted. This prevents a handful of duplicated observations from authorizing larger positions or hiding a modest negative regime. -Strategy 40 adds uncertainty-aware promotion and demotion. A matching setup must +Strategy 42 adds uncertainty-aware promotion and demotion. A matching setup must accumulate at least eight effective observations and agree across at least two feature views before repeatable positive evidence can increase size or repeatable negative evidence can block a new entry. Mixed evidence stays close to neutral instead of being mistaken for an edge. -Build 43 enforces the documented offline boundary end to end. Cached snapshots +Build 44 enforces the documented offline boundary end to end. Cached snapshots under 90 minutes old may continue paper execution. Older snapshots remain usable for valuation and chart snapshots for up to 24 hours, but cannot trigger entries, stop-losses, gain-stops, risk rebalances, settlements, or policy exits. Network @@ -91,15 +91,21 @@ of leaving a cycle hanging indefinitely. Build identity is separate from strategy lineage starting with build 42. The service worker and deployment metadata advance with each code release, but -adaptive baselines, pending signal grades, and trade evidence remain in strategy -40 until the actual entry, sizing, or exit logic changes. Legacy build 40 and 41 +adaptive baselines, pending signal grades, and trade evidence remain in one strategy +lineage until the actual entry, sizing, or exit logic changes. Legacy build 40 and 41 records are migrated into the same strategy lineage without losing evidence. -Build 43 independently refreshes markets for matured pending signals that have +Build 44 independently refreshes markets for matured pending signals that have left the current top-500 activity scan. Unavailable markets remain queued for a bounded retry window. This prevents activity-rank survivorship from deciding which wins and losses reach the adaptive calibration ledger. +Strategy 42 coordinates high-risk exploration globally. Crypto, reversal, +near-term, extreme-price, and other gap-prone positions may be held materially by +only one agent, while ordinary independently confirmed markets retain the +two-agent cap. A historically blocked setup can enter the exploration lane for +only one designated agent, preventing duplicated speculative losses. + Run `npm run evaluate:settlements` to evaluate fixed decisions made 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, and 90 days before known binary settlements. The audit uses one observation per resolved market and horizon, includes losing contracts at zero, diff --git a/index.html b/index.html index 528f2ba..d8d0fd4 100644 --- a/index.html +++ b/index.html @@ -341,7 +341,7 @@ footer{margin-top:34px;padding-top:22px;border-top:1px solid var(--border);color