diff --git a/index.html b/index.html index d84f62b..d121d4a 100644 --- a/index.html +++ b/index.html @@ -377,7 +377,7 @@ footer{margin-top:34px;padding-top:22px;border-top:1px solid var(--border);color
  • Fetch — page through hundreds of live markets and tag each by category.
  • Score — rank every market 0–100 by conviction and estimate its edge vs. a fair-value model.
  • Suggest — surface the strongest picks per category with a plain-English rationale.
  • -
  • Compete — the strategy agents trade the same suggestions their own way, stop-loss weak positions, cash in half of 2x winners, exit stale or fading trades, then snapshot equity.
  • +
  • Compete — the strategy agents trade the same suggestions their own way, stop-loss weak positions, scale out through gain-stop tiers, exit stale or fading trades, then snapshot equity.
  • @@ -404,7 +404,11 @@ footer{margin-top:34px;padding-top:22px;border-top:1px solid var(--border);color const GAMMA = "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com"; const STARTING_BALANCE = 10000; const STOP_LOSS_PCT = 0.18; -const TAKE_PROFIT_MULT = 2; +const GAIN_STOP_TIERS = [ + {id:"75",gain:0.75,multiple:1.75,sellFrac:0.25,label:"+75%"}, + {id:"150",gain:1.50,multiple:2.50,sellFrac:0.25,label:"+150%"}, + {id:"300",gain:3.00,multiple:4.00,sellFrac:0.25,label:"+300%"}, +]; const EXIT_STALE_DAYS = 14; const EXIT_RESOLUTION_DAYS = 2; const AGENTS_KEY = "pma_agents_v2"; @@ -676,25 +680,44 @@ function shouldStopLoss(pos){ if(!pos.cost||pos.cost<=0)return false; return (pos.value||0)<=pos.cost*(1-STOP_LOSS_PCT); } -function gainStopTarget(pos){ +function doneGainStops(pos){ + const done=pos.gain_stops&&typeof pos.gain_stops==="object"?Object.assign({},pos.gain_stops):{}; + if(pos.took_profit_at&&!done["75"]&&!done["150"]){ + done["75"]=pos.took_profit_at; + done["150"]=pos.took_profit_at; + } + return done; +} +function gainStopTarget(pos,tier){ const entry=Number(pos.entry_price); - if(Number.isFinite(entry)&&entry>0)return +(entry*TAKE_PROFIT_MULT).toFixed(4); - if(pos.shares>0&&pos.cost>0)return +((pos.cost/pos.shares)*TAKE_PROFIT_MULT).toFixed(4); + if(Number.isFinite(entry)&&entry>0)return +(entry*tier.multiple).toFixed(4); + if(pos.shares>0&&pos.cost>0)return +((pos.cost/pos.shares)*tier.multiple).toFixed(4); return null; } -function shouldTakeProfit(pos){ - if(pos.took_profit_at||!pos.cost||pos.cost<=0)return false; - const target=gainStopTarget(pos); - if(target!=null&&target<=1)return (pos.current_price||0)>=target; - return (pos.value||0)>=pos.cost*TAKE_PROFIT_MULT; +function nextGainStop(pos){ + if(!pos.cost||pos.cost<=0)return null; + const done=doneGainStops(pos); + return GAIN_STOP_TIERS.find(t=>!done[t.id])||null; +} +function triggeredGainStops(pos){ + if(!pos.cost||pos.cost<=0)return []; + const done=doneGainStops(pos); + return GAIN_STOP_TIERS.filter(t=>{ + if(done[t.id])return false; + const target=gainStopTarget(pos,t); + return target!=null&&target<=1&&(pos.current_price||0)>=target; + }); } function gainStopLabel(pos){ - if(pos.took_profit_at)return "Gain stop cashed: sold half"; - const target=gainStopTarget(pos); - if(target==null)return "Gain stop: waiting for 2x"; - if(target>1)return `Gain stop: 2x unreachable from ${pct(pos.entry_price)} entry`; + const done=doneGainStops(pos),doneCount=GAIN_STOP_TIERS.filter(t=>done[t.id]).length; + const tier=nextGainStop(pos); + if(!tier)return "Gain stop: 75% sold, 25% left riding"; + const target=gainStopTarget(pos,tier); + const prefix=doneCount?`Gain stop: ${doneCount*25}% sold; next `:"Gain stop: "; + if(target==null)return `${prefix}waiting for ${tier.label}`; + if(target>1)return `${prefix}${tier.label} unreachable from ${pct(pos.entry_price)} entry`; const gap=Math.max(0,target-(pos.current_price||0)); - return `Gain stop: sell half at ${pct(target)}${gap>0?` (${(gap*100).toFixed(1)}c away)`:" — armed"}`; + return `${prefix}sell 25% at ${pct(target)} (${tier.label})${gap>0?` — ${(gap*100).toFixed(1)}c away`:" — armed"}`; } function stopOutPosition(p,pos){ const proceeds=+(pos.shares*pos.current_price).toFixed(2); @@ -714,20 +737,26 @@ function closePosition(p,pos,reason,action="CLOSE"){ p.history.push({date:logDay(),action,question:pos.question,side:pos.side, detail:`${reason} '${pos.question.slice(0,40)}' at ${pct(pos.current_price)} for ${fmtUSD(proceeds)} (P&L ${fmtUSD(pos.realized_pnl)})`}); } -function takeProfitPosition(p,pos){ - const soldShares=+(pos.shares/2).toFixed(2); +function takeProfitPosition(p,pos,tier){ + const legacyMultiplier=pos.took_profit_at&&!pos.original_shares?2:1; + const originalShares=+(pos.original_shares||pos.shares*legacyMultiplier).toFixed(2); + const originalCost=+(pos.original_cost||pos.cost*legacyMultiplier).toFixed(2); + pos.original_shares=originalShares; + pos.original_cost=originalCost; + const soldShares=+Math.min(pos.shares,originalShares*tier.sellFrac).toFixed(2); if(soldShares<=0)return; const proceeds=+(soldShares*pos.current_price).toFixed(2); - const realizedCost=+(pos.cost/2).toFixed(2); + const realizedCost=+Math.min(pos.cost,originalCost*tier.sellFrac).toFixed(2); const realizedPnl=+(proceeds-realizedCost).toFixed(2); p.cash=+(p.cash+proceeds).toFixed(2); pos.shares=+(pos.shares-soldShares).toFixed(2); pos.cost=+(pos.cost-realizedCost).toFixed(2); pos.value=+(pos.shares*pos.current_price).toFixed(2); pos.unrealized_pnl=+(pos.value-pos.cost).toFixed(2); - pos.took_profit_at=cycleIso(); + pos.gain_stops=doneGainStops(pos); + pos.gain_stops[tier.id]=cycleIso(); p.history.push({date:logDay(),action:"GAIN",question:pos.question,side:pos.side, - detail:`Gain stop sold half of '${pos.question.slice(0,40)}' at ${pct(pos.current_price)} for ${fmtUSD(proceeds)} (realized ${fmtUSD(realizedPnl)})`}); + detail:`Gain stop ${tier.label} sold 25% of '${pos.question.slice(0,40)}' at ${pct(pos.current_price)} for ${fmtUSD(proceeds)} (realized ${fmtUSD(realizedPnl)})`}); } function daysHeld(pos){ if(!pos.opened_at)return 0; @@ -757,7 +786,7 @@ function markToMarket(p,priceMap,cfg=null,{policyExits=false}={}){ pos.current_price=+price.toFixed(4);pos.value=+(pos.shares*price).toFixed(2); pos.unrealized_pnl=+(pos.value-pos.cost).toFixed(2); if(shouldStopLoss(pos)){stopOutPosition(p,pos);continue;} - if(shouldTakeProfit(pos))takeProfitPosition(p,pos); + for(const gainTier of triggeredGainStops(pos))takeProfitPosition(p,pos,gainTier); if(policyExits){ const reason=exitReason(pos,fresh,analyzeMarket(fresh),cfg); if(reason){closePosition(p,pos,reason,"EXIT");continue;} @@ -790,8 +819,8 @@ function openPositions(p,cfg,rankedSugs,focus,decision,avoidMarketIds){ p.positions.push({market_id:s.market_id,question:s.question,side:s.side,shares, token_id:(s.side==="YES"?s.clob_yes:s.clob_no)||null, entry_price:+entry.toFixed(4),current_price:+entry.toFixed(4),cost,value:cost, - unrealized_pnl:0,conviction:s.conviction,category:s.category,opened_at:cycleIso(),url:s.url||"", - gain_stop_target:gainStopTarget({entry_price:entry})}); + original_shares:shares,original_cost:cost,unrealized_pnl:0,conviction:s.conviction,category:s.category,opened_at:cycleIso(),url:s.url||"", + gain_stops:{}}); p.history.push({date:logDay(),action:"OPEN",question:s.question,side:s.side, detail:`${decision?decision.mode+" mode — ":""}Bought ${shares} ${s.side} '${s.question.slice(0,40)}' @ ${pct(entry)} for ${fmtUSD(cost)}`}); opened++;openedIds.push(s.market_id); @@ -857,7 +886,7 @@ async function runWhaleAgent(p,wallet,decision){ }else if(!held.has(pos.asset)){ closePosition(p,pos,"Copied trader exited"); }else{ - if(shouldTakeProfit(pos))takeProfitPosition(p,pos); + for(const gainTier of triggeredGainStops(pos))takeProfitPosition(p,pos,gainTier); keep.push(pos); } } @@ -874,8 +903,8 @@ async function runWhaleAgent(p,wallet,decision){ if(cost>p.cash)continue; p.cash=+(p.cash-cost).toFixed(2); p.positions.push({asset:t.asset,token_id:t.asset,market_id:t.conditionId,question:t.title,side:t.side,category:"Copy", - shares,entry_price:+entry.toFixed(4),current_price:+entry.toFixed(4),cost,value:cost,unrealized_pnl:0,conviction:null,opened_at:cycleIso(), - gain_stop_target:gainStopTarget({entry_price:entry})}); + shares,entry_price:+entry.toFixed(4),current_price:+entry.toFixed(4),cost,value:cost, + original_shares:shares,original_cost:cost,unrealized_pnl:0,conviction:null,opened_at:cycleIso(),gain_stops:{}}); p.history.push({date:logDay(),action:"OPEN",question:t.title,side:t.side, detail:`Copied trade — ${shares} ${t.side} '${t.title.slice(0,36)}' @ ${pct(entry)} for ${fmtUSD(cost)}`}); } @@ -906,8 +935,8 @@ function runCopycat(p,leader,priceMap){ if(cost>p.cash)continue; p.cash=+(p.cash-cost).toFixed(2); p.positions.push({market_id:lp.market_id,token_id:lp.token_id||null,question:lp.question,side:lp.side,category:lp.category, - shares,entry_price:+entry.toFixed(4),current_price:+entry.toFixed(4),cost,value:cost,unrealized_pnl:0,conviction:lp.conviction,opened_at:cycleIso(), - gain_stop_target:gainStopTarget({entry_price:entry})}); + shares,entry_price:+entry.toFixed(4),current_price:+entry.toFixed(4),cost,value:cost, + original_shares:shares,original_cost:cost,unrealized_pnl:0,conviction:lp.conviction,opened_at:cycleIso(),gain_stops:{}}); p.history.push({date:logDay(),action:"OPEN",question:lp.question,side:lp.side, detail:`Copied leader — ${shares} ${lp.side} '${lp.question.slice(0,36)}' @ ${pct(entry)}`}); } @@ -1177,7 +1206,7 @@ function renderAgentBrief(cfg,p,st){
    Style
    ${esc(risk)}
    Trade Rule
    ${esc(cadence)}
    Stop Loss
    ${Math.round(STOP_LOSS_PCT*100)}% drawdown
    -
    Gain Stop
    ${TAKE_PROFIT_MULT}x: sell half
    +
    Gain Stop
    Sell 25% at +75%, +150%, +300%
    Policy Exit
    ${esc(exitRule)}
    Best / Worst
    ${esc(bw.best)}
    ${esc(bw.worst)}
    `; }