From 53141d9071ff38b723ee665c8fcf5bb7d8f6592c Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Theodore Song Date: Sun, 23 Aug 2026 07:58:25 -0400 Subject: [PATCH] Expand executable protected opportunity search --- .github/workflows/autonomous-cycle.yml | 2 +- .../workflows/release-protected-routing.yml | 18 ++++++++--------- README.md | 18 ++++++++--------- index.html | 20 +++++++++---------- scripts/test-autonomous-runtime.mjs | 16 +++++++-------- sw.js | 2 +- 6 files changed, 38 insertions(+), 38 deletions(-) diff --git a/.github/workflows/autonomous-cycle.yml b/.github/workflows/autonomous-cycle.yml index 7b3ac36..4431beb 100644 --- a/.github/workflows/autonomous-cycle.yml +++ b/.github/workflows/autonomous-cycle.yml @@ -35,7 +35,7 @@ jobs: - run: node scripts/run-autonomous-cycle.mjs env: ARENA_URL: https://polymarket-site-eta.vercel.app - EXPECTED_BUILD: "126" + EXPECTED_BUILD: "127" RUNTIME_BRANCH: runtime-state RUNTIME_STATE_PATH: runtime/state.json GITHUB_TOKEN: ${{ secrets.GITHUB_TOKEN }} diff --git a/.github/workflows/release-protected-routing.yml b/.github/workflows/release-protected-routing.yml index d5bf75d..2a7eb65 100644 --- a/.github/workflows/release-protected-routing.yml +++ b/.github/workflows/release-protected-routing.yml @@ -1,4 +1,4 @@ -name: Release duration-aware protected returns after Vercel quota reset +name: Release expanded executable search after Vercel quota reset on: schedule: @@ -26,23 +26,23 @@ jobs: env: ARENA_URL: https://polymarket-site-eta.vercel.app run: | - if curl --fail --silent --show-error "${ARENA_URL}/?duration_preflight=${GITHUB_RUN_ID}" | grep -q 'bundleMinimumDailyReturn'; then - echo "Duration-aware protected returns are already live." + if curl --fail --silent --show-error "${ARENA_URL}/?search_preflight=${GITHUB_RUN_ID}" | grep -q 'BUNDLE_DEPTH_CANDIDATE_LIMIT=200'; then + echo "Expanded executable search is already live." exit 0 fi - printf 'Duration-aware protected return deployment retry from run %s at %s\n' "$GITHUB_RUN_ID" "$(date -u +%FT%TZ)" > .duration-aware-release-trigger + printf 'Expanded executable search deployment retry from run %s at %s\n' "$GITHUB_RUN_ID" "$(date -u +%FT%TZ)" > .expanded-search-release-trigger git config user.name "github-actions[bot]" git config user.email "41898282+github-actions[bot]@users.noreply.github.com" - git add .duration-aware-release-trigger - git commit -m "Retry duration-aware protected returns deployment" + git add .expanded-search-release-trigger + git commit -m "Retry expanded executable search deployment" git push origin HEAD:main - - name: Verify the exact sizing revision in production + - name: Verify the expanded search revision in production env: ARENA_URL: https://polymarket-site-eta.vercel.app run: | for attempt in $(seq 1 40); do - if curl --fail --silent --show-error "${ARENA_URL}/?duration_wait=${GITHUB_RUN_ID}-${attempt}" | grep -q 'bundleMinimumDailyReturn'; then - echo "Duration-aware protected returns are live." + if curl --fail --silent --show-error "${ARENA_URL}/?search_wait=${GITHUB_RUN_ID}-${attempt}" | grep -q 'BUNDLE_DEPTH_CANDIDATE_LIMIT=200'; then + echo "Expanded executable search is live." exit 0 fi sleep 30 diff --git a/README.md b/README.md index de98483..b9178e1 100644 --- a/README.md +++ b/README.md @@ -23,7 +23,7 @@ Offline cycles can apply calibration already earned from live observations, but the evidence ledger is read-only: cached prices cannot grade pending signals, expire horizons, or create new observations. -Build 126 targets five-minute slots with a serialized, self-chained GitHub Actions runtime. +Build 127 targets five-minute slots with a serialized, self-chained GitHub Actions runtime. The mutable snapshot stays on the dedicated `runtime-state` branch, which is explicitly excluded from Vercel Git deployments through `git.deploymentEnabled`. This prevents high-frequency state commits from @@ -70,7 +70,7 @@ Polymarket event key. Related Ethereum or Bitcoin contracts cannot create several simultaneous copies of one move, and outcomes from the same underlying three-hour shock window count as one learner event. -Each Build 126 cycle also scans the 1,000 most-active Polymarket events for +Each Build 127 cycle also scans the 1,000 most-active Polymarket events for complete negative-risk bundles and logically nested threshold or deadline pairs, plus same-market YES/NO complements whose equal shares have a fixed $1 redemption value. Polymarket's documented complete-set merge converts equal @@ -78,7 +78,7 @@ YES and NO amounts directly back into collateral, so a verified binary complemen is merged and realized in the same paper cycle instead of waiting for resolution. The official negative-risk adapter also converts a complete set of NO tokens into `n - 1` units of collateral, less the event's `negRiskFeeBips`. Strategy 65 treats -that as a separate immediate path. The scanner reserves 20 of its 80 depth checks +that as a separate immediate path. The scanner reserves 40 of its 200 depth checks for complete-NO candidates, then reads `getFeeBips` and `getQuestionCount` from the official Polygon adapter for only those candidates. Every leg must expose one consistent `negRiskMarketID`, the event leg count must equal the on-chain question @@ -95,9 +95,9 @@ Gasless CTF operations include merge transactions; see [Positions & Tokens](https://docs.polymarket.com/concepts/positions-tokens) and [Gasless Transactions](https://docs.polymarket.com/trading/gasless). Gamma's market-specific fee flag replaces the old blanket 0.5-cent fee -reserve for markets declared fee-free. The scanner keeps the existing 60 -independent-first general structure checks and reserves 20 additional checks for -same-market complements. Structures are ranked by locked-capital efficiency, with +reserve for markets declared fee-free. The scanner uses 120 independent-first +general structure checks and reserves 40 additional checks for same-market +complements. Structures are ranked by locked-capital efficiency, with the best structure from each independent event checked before alternates from events already represented. They are repriced from batched CLOB asks from the equal-unit size needed for at least a $50 @@ -131,7 +131,7 @@ The Suggestions view stores scan, depth, fee, actionable, and closest executable-margin counts so an empty lane is evidence rather than an ambiguous failure. -Build 126 retains the directional learner's exact-fee policy, which replaced the blanket half-cent cost with +Build 127 retains the directional learner's exact-fee policy, which replaced the blanket half-cent cost with the market's Gamma fee schedule at both the entry and future checkpoint, plus a separate half-cent round-trip slippage allowance. Fee-free markets pay only the slippage allowance; an unavailable fee schedule gets a conservative four-cent @@ -164,7 +164,7 @@ target fell to -44.14% in validation and remained negative in holdout, so it cannot authorize capital. The reproducible result is stored in `research/settlement-calibration-exact-fee-5000-audit.json`. -Build 126 retains Build 100's retirement of the old 3-6 day resolution-window +Build 127 retains Build 100's retirement of the old 3-6 day resolution-window capital permission. That audit clustered confidence by event but still averaged several correlated contracts inside each event, while production could choose only one. The corrected replay chooses the highest-volume eligible contract per event and @@ -284,7 +284,7 @@ evidence proves an edge. Run `npm run evaluate:sports-favorites` for the retired pregame favorite audit. Its 12-hour, 60%-75% cohort had positive point estimates but did not establish a -reliable confidence bound, so Build 126 no longer allocates capital to that rule. +reliable confidence bound, so Build 127 no longer allocates capital to that rule. Strategy 65 also tracks the exact-fee settlement calibration's three-day Sports NO cohort as a zero-capital forward lane. The corrected 5,000-market run diff --git a/index.html b/index.html index f92b38d..1ede5f7 100644 --- a/index.html +++ b/index.html @@ -341,7 +341,7 @@ footer{margin-top:34px;padding-top:22px;border-top:1px solid var(--border);color