Protect adaptive evidence in runtime snapshots

This commit is contained in:
Theodore Song
2026-08-22 04:42:05 -04:00
parent ffd3acb7d9
commit 4d4a4b6d4d
6 changed files with 104 additions and 44 deletions
+14 -9
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@@ -20,7 +20,7 @@ market snapshots. During an outage, cycles continue locally; cached entries are
allowed for 90 minutes, older snapshots become mark-only, and all cached data
expires after 24 hours.
Build 119 targets five-minute slots with a serialized, self-chained GitHub Actions runtime.
Build 120 targets five-minute slots with a serialized, self-chained GitHub Actions runtime.
It continues from the previous agent snapshot and runs the next due paper cycle
even when no browser is open. After each successful cycle, one repo-scoped
workflow dispatch waits for the next five-minute boundary; one concurrency group
@@ -32,10 +32,15 @@ contains only `pma_agents_v2` and `pma_suggestions_v5`, with suggestions capped
300 to keep cross-device loads small. The API preserves oldest-first pending
observations plus fee schedules, agent promotion scopes, and verified bundle
capacity from the bounded runtime instead of applying its older lossy compactor.
Public maker outcomes retain only calibration fields and action logs are bounded
to 80 entries per agent. If the 875 KB transport budget is reached, up to 96 of
the newest completed directional outcomes are reserved before the oldest
still-pending observations consume the remaining evidence space.
Public maker outcomes retain only calibration fields, action logs are bounded
to 48 entries per agent, and chart snapshots are evenly sampled once their
96-point public limit is reached so older dates remain represented. Repetitive
watch-only explanations are normalized without changing signal fields. If the
875 KB transport budget is reached, the compactor first protects 75 KB for
learning, reserves up to 144 of the newest completed directional outcomes, and
then gives the remaining evidence space to the oldest still-pending
observations. Only after display history reaches its documented floor can the
public suggestion list fall from 300 to its 240-item emergency floor.
Paper accounts, passwords, email settings,
investment allocations, chat history, wallet information, and live-money
settings are explicitly excluded. While that fallback is active, ordinary
@@ -55,7 +60,7 @@ Polymarket event key. Related Ethereum or Bitcoin contracts cannot create
several simultaneous copies of one move, and outcomes from the same underlying
three-hour shock window count as one learner event.
Each Build 119 cycle also scans the 1,000 most-active Polymarket events for
Each Build 120 cycle also scans the 1,000 most-active Polymarket events for
complete negative-risk bundles and logically nested threshold or deadline
pairs. Gamma's market-specific fee flag replaces the old blanket 0.5-cent fee
reserve for markets declared fee-free. The closest 60 structures are then
@@ -74,7 +79,7 @@ The Suggestions view stores scan, depth, fee, actionable, and closest
executable-margin counts so an empty lane is evidence rather than an ambiguous
failure.
Build 119 retains the directional learner's exact-fee policy, which replaced the blanket half-cent cost with
Build 120 retains the directional learner's exact-fee policy, which replaced the blanket half-cent cost with
the market's Gamma fee schedule at both the entry and future checkpoint, plus a
separate half-cent round-trip slippage allowance. Fee-free markets pay only the
slippage allowance; an unavailable fee schedule gets a conservative four-cent
@@ -95,7 +100,7 @@ Every probation position exits at the matching six-hour executable bid and keeps
the 18% stop policy active. Normal directional sizing remains locked until the
same cohort independently passes both the 24-hour and 72-hour promotion gates.
Build 119 retains Build 100's retirement of the old 3-6 day resolution-window
Build 120 retains Build 100's retirement of the old 3-6 day resolution-window
capital permission. That audit clustered confidence by event but still averaged
several correlated contracts inside each event, while production could choose
only one. The corrected replay chooses the highest-volume eligible contract per event and
@@ -215,7 +220,7 @@ evidence proves an edge.
Run `npm run evaluate:sports-favorites` for the retired pregame favorite audit.
Its 12-hour, 60%-75% cohort had positive point estimates but did not establish a
reliable confidence bound, so Build 119 no longer allocates capital to that rule.
reliable confidence bound, so Build 120 no longer allocates capital to that rule.
Strategy 63 also uses the exact-fee settlement calibration's three-day Sports
NO cohort as a bounded paper exploration lane. The corrected 5,000-market run