<b>Personal research mode.</b> This copy is for your own analysis, paper tracking, and manual trade research only. It does not pool money, onboard investors, custody funds, bypass eligibility rules, or place orders without your manual approval.
<b>Personal research mode.</b> This copy is for your own analysis, paper tracking, and manual trade research only. It does not pool money, onboard investors, custody funds, bypass eligibility rules, or place orders without your manual approval.
</div>
</div>
<divclass="live-build-banner"><b>Build 93 active:</b> The public paper agents run autonomously every 15 minutes while every user device is closed. Strategy 3's five aggressive adopters share one deduplicated forward-evidence ledger: a completed trade teaches every adopter while each portfolio's cash and P&L remain separate. Active shock positions are also clustered by underlying risk, so several Ethereum or Bitcoin contracts cannot turn one market move into repeated exposure or repeated evidence. Positive evidence can promote bounded size and losing evidence disables the lane for all adopters. Phones and computers display the same read-only autonomous cycle instead of simulating conflicting local copies. Profits are not guaranteed.</div>
<divclass="live-build-banner"><b>Build 94 active:</b> The public paper agents run autonomously every 15 minutes while every user device is closed. Strategy 4 keeps the audited 12-hour shock-fade rule but rejects path-dependent barriers, exact numeric ranges, and contracts without enough runway for the complete holding period. Its five aggressive adopters share one deduplicated forward-evidence ledger while keeping cash and P&L separate. Active shock positions are clustered by underlying risk, and invalid legacy shock positions are unwound at executable prices. Phones and computers display the same read-only autonomous cycle instead of simulating conflicting local copies. Profits are not guaranteed.</div>
drivers:["8%+ three-hour shock","accelerating final hour","8–92% opposite-side entry","12-hour executable exit","two-cent stress-tested"],
drivers:["8%+ three-hour shock","accelerating final hour","contract survives the full holding window","no path barrier or exact numeric range","8–92% opposite-side entry","12-hour executable exit","two-cent stress-tested"],
rationale:`Backtest-approved paper strategy: YES moved ${(move3*100).toFixed(2)} points in three hours and ${(move1*100).toFixed(2)} in the accelerating final hour versus ${(priorMove1*100).toFixed(2)} previously. The strategy fades that move with ${side} at modeled ${pct(execution.price)}, ${(execution.cost*100).toFixed(2)} cents above midpoint, and exits at an executable price after ${SHOCK_FADE_EXIT_HOURS} hours. The exact rule retained positive 90% lower bounds across the original four partitions at two-cent modeled cost and passed the event-disjoint holdout on the next 1,000 markets, although two independent chronological bounds crossed slightly below zero. Initial paper risk therefore remains limited to 1% of equity.`};
rationale:`Backtest-approved paper strategy: YES moved ${(move3*100).toFixed(2)} points in three hours and ${(move1*100).toFixed(2)} in the accelerating final hour versus ${(priorMove1*100).toFixed(2)} previously. The strategy fades that move with ${side} at modeled ${pct(execution.price)}, ${(execution.cost*100).toFixed(2)} cents above midpoint, and exits at an executable price after ${SHOCK_FADE_EXIT_HOURS} hours. The exact rule retained positive 90% lower bounds across the original four partitions at two-cent modeled cost and passed the event-disjoint holdout on the next 1,000 markets, although two independent chronological bounds crossed slightly below zero. Initial paper risk therefore remains limited to 1% of equity.`};
}
}
async function fetchShockFadeSuggestions(markets){
async function fetchShockFadeSuggestions(markets){
@@ -2498,7 +2507,7 @@ function currentShockClaimKeys(st){
adopter.lastDecision.allocationStatus=`${adopter.lastDecision.allocationStatus||""} Shared shock strategy 3: ${shockStage.active} zero-capital observation${shockStage.active===1?"":"s"} active, ${shockShadowActivity.completed} ${SHOCK_FADE_EXIT_HOURS}-hour outcome${shockShadowActivity.completed===1?"":"s"} graded this cycle, ${shockProfile.events}/${SHOCK_FADE_PROMOTION_EVENTS} deduplicated forward events complete across five adopters; current paper position cap ${(shockProfile.position_pct*100).toFixed(2)}% and losing evidence disables the lane for all five.`.trim();
adopter.lastDecision.allocationStatus=`${adopter.lastDecision.allocationStatus||""} Shared shock strategy ${SHOCK_FADE_STRATEGY_VERSION}: ${shockStage.active} zero-capital observation${shockStage.active===1?"":"s"} active, ${shockShadowActivity.completed} ${SHOCK_FADE_EXIT_HOURS}-hour outcome${shockShadowActivity.completed===1?"":"s"} graded this cycle, ${shockProfile.events}/${SHOCK_FADE_PROMOTION_EVENTS} deduplicated forward events complete across five adopters; current paper position cap ${(shockProfile.position_pct*100).toFixed(2)}% and losing evidence disables the lane for all five.`.trim();
const maker=d.makerQuotes!=null?` Maker research: ${d.makerShadowActive||0} zero-capital lock-or-exit observations active; ${d.makerFills||0} verified touches and ${d.makerShadowCompleted||0} outcomes completed this cycle.${makerStats?` Event-clustered ledger: ${makerStats.attempts} attempts / ${makerStats.events} events, ${makerStats.locked} locked pairs, ${makerStats.adverse} immediate adverse exits, ${makerStats.unfilled} unfilled, and ${fmtUSD(makerStats.shadow_pnl)} simulated shadow net.`:""} Capital is disabled because neither the 6,048-rule chronological maker audit nor the reward stress test produced a validated holdout winner. Hypothetical rewards are excluded.`:"";
const maker=d.makerQuotes!=null?` Maker research: ${d.makerShadowActive||0} zero-capital lock-or-exit observations active; ${d.makerFills||0} verified touches and ${d.makerShadowCompleted||0} outcomes completed this cycle.${makerStats?` Event-clustered ledger: ${makerStats.attempts} attempts / ${makerStats.events} events, ${makerStats.locked} locked pairs, ${makerStats.adverse} immediate adverse exits, ${makerStats.unfilled} unfilled, and ${fmtUSD(makerStats.shadow_pnl)} simulated shadow net.`:""} Capital is disabled because neither the 6,048-rule chronological maker audit nor the reward stress test produced a validated holdout winner. Hypothetical rewards are excluded.`:"";
const sportsPilot=d.sportsFavoritePilot?` Sports forward learner: ${d.sportsFavoritePilot.state}, ${d.sportsFavoritePilot.active_shadows||0} zero-capital observations active and ${d.sportsFavoritePilot.events} independent closed events, ${d.sportsFavoritePilot.events?`${(d.sportsFavoritePilot.mean*100).toFixed(2)}% mean with ${d.sportsFavoritePilot.lower>=0?"+":""}${(d.sportsFavoritePilot.lower*100).toFixed(2)}% to ${d.sportsFavoritePilot.upper>=0?"+":""}${(d.sportsFavoritePilot.upper*100).toFixed(2)}% 90% interval; `:""}${fmtUSD(d.sportsFavoritePilot.shadow_pnl_per_100||0)} simulated per-$100 net and ${fmtUSD(d.sportsFavoritePilot.pnl)} realized capital P&L. Position cap ${(d.sportsFavoritePilot.position_pct*100).toFixed(2)}%; capital remains zero until ${SPORTS_FAVORITE_PROMOTION_EVENTS} new independent events establish a positive lower bound.`:"";
const sportsPilot=d.sportsFavoritePilot?` Sports forward learner: ${d.sportsFavoritePilot.state}, ${d.sportsFavoritePilot.active_shadows||0} zero-capital observations active and ${d.sportsFavoritePilot.events} independent closed events, ${d.sportsFavoritePilot.events?`${(d.sportsFavoritePilot.mean*100).toFixed(2)}% mean with ${d.sportsFavoritePilot.lower>=0?"+":""}${(d.sportsFavoritePilot.lower*100).toFixed(2)}% to ${d.sportsFavoritePilot.upper>=0?"+":""}${(d.sportsFavoritePilot.upper*100).toFixed(2)}% 90% interval; `:""}${fmtUSD(d.sportsFavoritePilot.shadow_pnl_per_100||0)} simulated per-$100 net and ${fmtUSD(d.sportsFavoritePilot.pnl)} realized capital P&L. Position cap ${(d.sportsFavoritePilot.position_pct*100).toFixed(2)}%; capital remains zero until ${SPORTS_FAVORITE_PROMOTION_EVENTS} new independent events establish a positive lower bound.`:"";
const shockPilot=d.shockFadePilot?` Shared shock strategy 3: ${d.shockFadePilot.state}, ${d.shockFadePilot.active_shadows||0} ${SHOCK_FADE_EXIT_HOURS}-hour observations active and ${d.shockFadePilot.events}/${SHOCK_FADE_PROMOTION_EVENTS} deduplicated forward events complete across five adopters. Mean ${(d.shockFadePilot.mean*100).toFixed(2)}%; 90% interval ${(d.shockFadePilot.lower*100).toFixed(2)}% to ${(d.shockFadePilot.upper*100).toFixed(2)}%; ${d.shockFadePilot.expired_ungraded||0} missed windows were discarded. Position cap ${(d.shockFadePilot.position_pct*100).toFixed(2)}%, total cap ${SHOCK_FADE_TOTAL_CAPITAL_PCT*100}%; ${SHOCK_FADE_PROMOTION_EVENTS} positive events can raise size to ${SHOCK_FADE_PROMOTED_POSITION_PCT*100}%, while losing evidence disables the lane for all five.`:"";
const shockPilot=d.shockFadePilot?` Shared shock strategy ${SHOCK_FADE_STRATEGY_VERSION}: ${d.shockFadePilot.state}, ${d.shockFadePilot.active_shadows||0} ${SHOCK_FADE_EXIT_HOURS}-hour observations active and ${d.shockFadePilot.events}/${SHOCK_FADE_PROMOTION_EVENTS} deduplicated forward events complete across five adopters. Mean ${(d.shockFadePilot.mean*100).toFixed(2)}%; 90% interval ${(d.shockFadePilot.lower*100).toFixed(2)}% to ${(d.shockFadePilot.upper*100).toFixed(2)}%; ${d.shockFadePilot.expired_ungraded||0} missed windows were discarded. Position cap ${(d.shockFadePilot.position_pct*100).toFixed(2)}%, total cap ${SHOCK_FADE_TOTAL_CAPITAL_PCT*100}%; ${SHOCK_FADE_PROMOTION_EVENTS} positive events can raise size to ${SHOCK_FADE_PROMOTED_POSITION_PCT*100}%, while losing evidence disables the lane for all five.`:"";
return `${d.mode} mode: ${d.reason}${emotion} Limits now: ${d.maxNew} new trade${d.maxNew===1?"":"s"}, max ${(d.maxFrac*100).toFixed(1)}% per position${d.minConv?`, conviction ${d.minConv}+`:""}.${learning}${calibration}${maker}${sportsPilot}${shockPilot}${exposure}${allocation}${candidates}${blockers}`;
return `${d.mode} mode: ${d.reason}${emotion} Limits now: ${d.maxNew} new trade${d.maxNew===1?"":"s"}, max ${(d.maxFrac*100).toFixed(1)}% per position${d.minConv?`, conviction ${d.minConv}+`:""}.${learning}${calibration}${maker}${sportsPilot}${shockPilot}${exposure}${allocation}${candidates}${blockers}`;
historicalPrior:"No broad directional rule survived the 300-market 60/20/20 adaptive holdout at both 24h and 72h. Shock strategy 3 is narrower and more cost-tolerant: fade an accelerating 8% three-hour move and exit after 12 hours. Across 534,894 observations from the first 2,000 active markets, its two-cent-cost, live-matching winsorized 90% lower bounds were +4.01% train, +4.55% validation, +3.63% chronological holdout, and +1.08% event holdout across 417 partition-events. An exact-rule check on the next 1,000 markets kept positive means in all segments and a +0.37% event-holdout lower bound across 61 events, while train and chronological-holdout bounds were slightly inconclusive at -0.17% and -0.89%. The five aggressive agents adopt disjoint events at 1% initial size, share deduplicated forward evidence, increase only after positive shared evidence, and all disable the lane when that evidence turns negative. Resolved archive coverage remains unavailable. Favorite-priced trend remains hard-blocked. Maker capital remains disabled"}),
historicalPrior:"No broad directional rule survived the 300-market 60/20/20 adaptive holdout at both 24h and 72h. Shock strategy 4 preserves the narrower cost-stressed Strategy 3 rule: fade an accelerating 8% three-hour move and exit after 12 hours, but require the complete exit runway and reject path barriers and exact numeric ranges that can settle discontinuously. Across 534,894 observations from the first 2,000 active markets, the underlying rule's two-cent-cost, live-matching winsorized 90% lower bounds were +4.01% train, +4.55% validation, +3.63% chronological holdout, and +1.08% event holdout across 417 partition-events. An exact-rule check on the next 1,000 markets kept positive means in all segments and a +0.37% event-holdout lower bound across 61 events, while train and chronological-holdout bounds were slightly inconclusive at -0.17% and -0.89%. The five aggressive agents adopt disjoint risks at 1% initial size, share deduplicated forward evidence, increase only after positive shared evidence, and all disable the lane when that evidence turns negative. Resolved archive coverage remains unavailable. Favorite-priced trend remains hard-blocked. Maker capital remains disabled"}),
});
});
function runEngineSelfTest(){
function runEngineSelfTest(){
const market=(overrides={})=>Object.assign({
const market=(overrides={})=>Object.assign({
@@ -5825,6 +5842,14 @@ function runEngineSelfTest(){
const fixedDateShock=shockFadeSuggestion(market({id:"shock-fixed",event_id:"shock-fixed-event",question:"Will Ethereum be above $2,600 on September 1?",
Blocking a user prevents them from interacting with repositories, such as opening or commenting on pull requests or issues. Learn more about blocking a user.
Theodore Song