diff --git a/.github/workflows/autonomous-cycle.yml b/.github/workflows/autonomous-cycle.yml index 4431beb..7d9636b 100644 --- a/.github/workflows/autonomous-cycle.yml +++ b/.github/workflows/autonomous-cycle.yml @@ -35,7 +35,7 @@ jobs: - run: node scripts/run-autonomous-cycle.mjs env: ARENA_URL: https://polymarket-site-eta.vercel.app - EXPECTED_BUILD: "127" + EXPECTED_BUILD: "128" RUNTIME_BRANCH: runtime-state RUNTIME_STATE_PATH: runtime/state.json GITHUB_TOKEN: ${{ secrets.GITHUB_TOKEN }} diff --git a/README.md b/README.md index b9178e1..256d6a2 100644 --- a/README.md +++ b/README.md @@ -23,7 +23,7 @@ Offline cycles can apply calibration already earned from live observations, but the evidence ledger is read-only: cached prices cannot grade pending signals, expire horizons, or create new observations. -Build 127 targets five-minute slots with a serialized, self-chained GitHub Actions runtime. +Build 128 targets five-minute slots with a serialized, self-chained GitHub Actions runtime. The mutable snapshot stays on the dedicated `runtime-state` branch, which is explicitly excluded from Vercel Git deployments through `git.deploymentEnabled`. This prevents high-frequency state commits from @@ -70,7 +70,7 @@ Polymarket event key. Related Ethereum or Bitcoin contracts cannot create several simultaneous copies of one move, and outcomes from the same underlying three-hour shock window count as one learner event. -Each Build 127 cycle also scans the 1,000 most-active Polymarket events for +Each Build 128 cycle also scans the 1,000 most-active Polymarket events for complete negative-risk bundles and logically nested threshold or deadline pairs, plus same-market YES/NO complements whose equal shares have a fixed $1 redemption value. Polymarket's documented complete-set merge converts equal @@ -131,7 +131,7 @@ The Suggestions view stores scan, depth, fee, actionable, and closest executable-margin counts so an empty lane is evidence rather than an ambiguous failure. -Build 127 retains the directional learner's exact-fee policy, which replaced the blanket half-cent cost with +Build 128 retains the directional learner's exact-fee policy, which replaced the blanket half-cent cost with the market's Gamma fee schedule at both the entry and future checkpoint, plus a separate half-cent round-trip slippage allowance. Fee-free markets pay only the slippage allowance; an unavailable fee schedule gets a conservative four-cent @@ -164,7 +164,7 @@ target fell to -44.14% in validation and remained negative in holdout, so it cannot authorize capital. The reproducible result is stored in `research/settlement-calibration-exact-fee-5000-audit.json`. -Build 127 retains Build 100's retirement of the old 3-6 day resolution-window +Build 128 retains Build 100's retirement of the old 3-6 day resolution-window capital permission. That audit clustered confidence by event but still averaged several correlated contracts inside each event, while production could choose only one. The corrected replay chooses the highest-volume eligible contract per event and @@ -284,7 +284,7 @@ evidence proves an edge. Run `npm run evaluate:sports-favorites` for the retired pregame favorite audit. Its 12-hour, 60%-75% cohort had positive point estimates but did not establish a -reliable confidence bound, so Build 127 no longer allocates capital to that rule. +reliable confidence bound, so Build 128 no longer allocates capital to that rule. Strategy 65 also tracks the exact-fee settlement calibration's three-day Sports NO cohort as a zero-capital forward lane. The corrected 5,000-market run @@ -344,14 +344,21 @@ passed the chronological path screen at 25% of the present reward estimate, but both did so without an adverse historical touch; this prioritizes shadow research and does not authorize capital. -Maker research version 3 lets all ten agents split distinct zero-capital shadow +Maker research version 4 lets all ten agents split distinct zero-capital shadow quote pairs selected by the shared reward-book audit. Token histories are fetched in batches, so the learner no longer silently ignores quotes after the first ten markets. A live cycle must still verify each touch from public CLOB price history or a current book cross. After the first one-sided touch, the shadow engine now buys the complement only when the current executable ask locks a positive margin after modeled cost; otherwise it grades an immediate executable exit. It no -longer waits with adverse one-sided shadow inventory. +longer waits with adverse one-sided shadow inventory. Build 128 records seven +reproducible setup cohorts for every completed observation: category, spread, +reward yield, quote-price balance, recent movement, paired locked margin, and +visible competition. Shadow selection adds a bounded novelty score so the ten +agents rotate toward under-sampled configurations instead of repeatedly measuring +one dominant setup. A mature losing cohort vetoes risk; promotion would require +every matching cohort to clear its independent-event confidence and locked-fill +requirements, as well as a separately approved chronological backtest. The August 21 expanded audit loaded both token histories for all 500 requested markets, formed 7,335 observations, and tested 6,048 wait and immediate-hedge diff --git a/index.html b/index.html index 1ede5f7..f72e360 100644 --- a/index.html +++ b/index.html @@ -341,7 +341,7 @@ footer{margin-top:34px;padding-top:22px;border-top:1px solid var(--border);color