Recycle verified bundle profits early

.github/workflows/release-build-123.yml

@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
-name: Release Build 122 after Vercel quota reset
+name: Release Build 123 after Vercel quota reset
 
 on:
   schedule:
@@ -9,7 +9,7 @@ permissions:
   contents: write
 
 concurrency:
-  group: release-build-122
+  group: release-build-123
   cancel-in-progress: false
 
 jobs:
@@ -25,36 +25,36 @@ jobs:
         env:
           ARENA_URL: https://polymarket-site-eta.vercel.app
         run: |
-          if curl --fail --silent --show-error "${ARENA_URL}/?build_122_preflight=${GITHUB_RUN_ID}" | grep -q 'const BUILD_VERSION = 122;'; then
+          if curl --fail --silent --show-error "${ARENA_URL}/?build_123_preflight=${GITHUB_RUN_ID}" | grep -q 'const BUILD_VERSION = 123;'; then
-            echo "Build 122 is already live."
+            echo "Build 123 is already live."
             exit 0
           fi
-          printf 'Build 122 deployment retry from run %s at %s\n' "$GITHUB_RUN_ID" "$(date -u +%FT%TZ)" > .build-122-release-trigger
+          printf 'Build 123 deployment retry from run %s at %s\n' "$GITHUB_RUN_ID" "$(date -u +%FT%TZ)" > .build-123-release-trigger
           git config user.name "github-actions[bot]"
           git config user.email "41898282+github-actions[bot]@users.noreply.github.com"
-          git add .build-122-release-trigger
+          git add .build-123-release-trigger
-          git commit -m "Retry Build 122 production deployment"
+          git commit -m "Retry Build 123 production deployment"
           git push origin HEAD:main
-      - name: Wait for Build 122 in production
+      - name: Wait for Build 123 in production
         env:
           ARENA_URL: https://polymarket-site-eta.vercel.app
         run: |
           for attempt in $(seq 1 40); do
-            if curl --fail --silent --show-error "${ARENA_URL}/?build_122_wait=${GITHUB_RUN_ID}-${attempt}" | grep -q 'const BUILD_VERSION = 122;'; then
+            if curl --fail --silent --show-error "${ARENA_URL}/?build_123_wait=${GITHUB_RUN_ID}-${attempt}" | grep -q 'const BUILD_VERSION = 123;'; then
-              echo "Build 122 is live."
+              echo "Build 123 is live."
               exit 0
             fi
             sleep 30
           done
-          echo "Build 122 did not become live; Build 118 remains the autonomous runtime target."
+          echo "Build 123 did not become live; Build 118 remains the autonomous runtime target."
           exit 1
-      - name: Activate the Build 122 autonomous runner
+      - name: Activate the Build 123 autonomous runner
         run: |
           git pull --ff-only origin main
-          perl -0pi -e 's/EXPECTED_BUILD: "118"/EXPECTED_BUILD: "122"/' .github/workflows/autonomous-cycle.yml
+          perl -0pi -e 's/EXPECTED_BUILD: "118"/EXPECTED_BUILD: "123"/' .github/workflows/autonomous-cycle.yml
-          perl -0pi -e 's/assert\.match\(workflow, \/EXPECTED_BUILD: "118"\/\);/assert.match(workflow, \/EXPECTED_BUILD: "122"\/);/' scripts/test-autonomous-runtime.mjs
+          perl -0pi -e 's/assert\.match\(workflow, \/EXPECTED_BUILD: "118"\/\);/assert.match(workflow, \/EXPECTED_BUILD: "123"\/);/' scripts/test-autonomous-runtime.mjs
-          rm -f .build-122-release-trigger
+          rm -f .build-123-release-trigger
-          git rm .github/workflows/release-build-122.yml
+          git rm .github/workflows/release-build-123.yml
           git add .github/workflows/autonomous-cycle.yml scripts/test-autonomous-runtime.mjs
-          git commit -m "Activate Build 122 autonomous cycles"
+          git commit -m "Activate Build 123 autonomous cycles"
           git push origin HEAD:main

README.md

@@ -23,7 +23,7 @@ Offline cycles can apply calibration already earned from live observations, but
 the evidence ledger is read-only: cached prices cannot grade pending signals,
 expire horizons, or create new observations.
 
-Build 122 targets five-minute slots with a serialized, self-chained GitHub Actions runtime.
+Build 123 targets five-minute slots with a serialized, self-chained GitHub Actions runtime.
 It continues from the previous agent snapshot and runs the next due paper cycle
 even when no browser is open. After each successful cycle, one repo-scoped
 workflow dispatch waits for the next five-minute boundary; one concurrency group
@@ -63,7 +63,7 @@ Polymarket event key. Related Ethereum or Bitcoin contracts cannot create
 several simultaneous copies of one move, and outcomes from the same underlying
 three-hour shock window count as one learner event.
 
-Each Build 122 cycle also scans the 1,000 most-active Polymarket events for
+Each Build 123 cycle also scans the 1,000 most-active Polymarket events for
 complete negative-risk bundles and logically nested threshold or deadline
 pairs, plus same-market YES/NO complements whose equal shares have a fixed
 $1 redemption value. Polymarket's documented complete-set merge converts equal
@@ -80,18 +80,22 @@ the best structure from each independent event checked before alternates from ev
 already represented. They are repriced
 from batched CLOB asks from the equal-unit size needed for at least a $50
 paper order up to a $400 verified-notional ceiling. The scanner applies each market's Gamma fee schedule at every
-consumed ask level and checks the CLOB fee-rate endpoint for a matching enabled
+consumed ask level and checks the exact CLOB condition metadata for a matching
-or fee-free state. Any opened position is capped to the exact equal-unit size
+fee curve or fee-free state. Any opened position is capped to the exact equal-unit size
 of the largest fill that stays profitable and passes this depth test; portfolio
 cash, reserve, and 4% limits can reduce it further. Strategy 64 ranks verified
 structures by net return per expected locked day before raw edge, and caps active
 cost from one underlying event at 12% of Value Hunter equity. This prevents
-several related threshold pairs from monopolizing the non-directional book while
+several related threshold pairs from monopolizing the non-directional book. New bundles must
-preserving every already-open complete bundle until settlement. New bundles must
 also clear a 0.02% daily locked-capital return floor, approximately 7.3% annualized,
 so a tiny spread cannot immobilize capital for months. Existing paper bundles are
 never retroactively enlarged against depth their original simulated fill would
-already have consumed. A bundle can enter Value Discipline only when that fee check
+already have consumed. Each live cycle also prices an atomic exit across every bid
+level needed to sell every leg of each intact bundle. It verifies every condition's
+exact fee schedule again and exits only when net proceeds realize at least 85% of
+the remaining guaranteed settlement profit. Missing depth, mismatched fees, or a
+smaller profit capture leave the guarantee intact; cached offline cycles cannot
+execute this recycling path. A bundle can enter Value Discipline only when that fee check
 passes and the resulting worst-case payout clears both the three-tenths-cent
 profit floor and the 0.15% return floor. Top-of-book gaps, missing books,
 incomplete fee schedules, and unavailable fee verification remain audit-only.
@@ -99,7 +103,7 @@ The Suggestions view stores scan, depth, fee, actionable, and closest
 executable-margin counts so an empty lane is evidence rather than an ambiguous
 failure.
 
-Build 122 retains the directional learner's exact-fee policy, which replaced the blanket half-cent cost with
+Build 123 retains the directional learner's exact-fee policy, which replaced the blanket half-cent cost with
 the market's Gamma fee schedule at both the entry and future checkpoint, plus a
 separate half-cent round-trip slippage allowance. Fee-free markets pay only the
 slippage allowance; an unavailable fee schedule gets a conservative four-cent
@@ -124,7 +128,7 @@ Every probation position exits at the matching six-hour executable bid and keeps
 the 18% stop policy active. Normal directional sizing remains locked until the
 same cohort independently passes both the 24-hour and 72-hour promotion gates.
 
-Build 122 retains Build 100's retirement of the old 3-6 day resolution-window
+Build 123 retains Build 100's retirement of the old 3-6 day resolution-window
 capital permission. That audit clustered confidence by event but still averaged
 several correlated contracts inside each event, while production could choose
 only one. The corrected replay chooses the highest-volume eligible contract per event and
@@ -244,7 +248,7 @@ evidence proves an edge.
 
 Run `npm run evaluate:sports-favorites` for the retired pregame favorite audit.
 Its 12-hour, 60%-75% cohort had positive point estimates but did not establish a
-reliable confidence bound, so Build 122 no longer allocates capital to that rule.
+reliable confidence bound, so Build 123 no longer allocates capital to that rule.
 
 Strategy 64 also tracks the exact-fee settlement calibration's three-day Sports
 NO cohort as a zero-capital forward lane. The corrected 5,000-market run

index.html

@@ -341,7 +341,7 @@ footer{margin-top:34px;padding-top:22px;border-top:1px solid var(--border);color
   <nav class="topnav">
     <div class="brand">
       <div class="logo">🏆</div>
-      <div><div class="brand-name">Polymarket Arena</div><div class="brand-sub">10 agents · 5 core + 5 aggressive</div><div class="build-badge">Adaptive strategy 64 · durable evidence · build 122</div></div>
+      <div><div class="brand-name">Polymarket Arena</div><div class="brand-sub">10 agents · 5 core + 5 aggressive</div><div class="build-badge">Adaptive strategy 64 · durable evidence · build 123</div></div>
     </div>
     <div class="tabs" id="tabs">
       <button class="tab" data-tab="overview">Overview</button>
@@ -363,7 +363,7 @@ footer{margin-top:34px;padding-top:22px;border-top:1px solid var(--border);color
   <div class="personal-banner" id="personalBanner">
     <b>Personal research mode.</b> This copy is for your own analysis, paper tracking, and manual trade research only. It does not pool money, onboard investors, custody funds, bypass eligibility rules, or place orders without your manual approval.
   </div>
-  <div class="live-build-banner"><b>Build 122 active:</b> Strategy 64 protects a dedicated evidence budget in every cloud snapshot, so pending observations and net-of-cost outcomes survive runner restarts instead of being displaced by repeated display text. Independently positive six-hour cohorts can enter bounded probation after at least 12 events and a lower confidence bound above 1%, using at most 0.5% per position and 1% per-agent total capital with a matching executable exit. Full directional sizing still requires positive 24-hour and 72-hour evidence, while one mature negative cohort can veto risk. Sports contest NO research is now zero-capital until its forward confidence gate passes. Depth-and-fee-verified complete bundles must return at least 0.02% per locked day, are ranked by that capital efficiency, and are capped at 12% of Value Hunter equity per underlying event. Phones and computers display the same read-only autonomous state. Profits are not guaranteed.</div>
+  <div class="live-build-banner"><b>Build 123 active:</b> Strategy 64 protects a dedicated evidence budget in every cloud snapshot, so pending observations and net-of-cost outcomes survive runner restarts instead of being displaced by repeated display text. Independently positive six-hour cohorts can enter bounded probation after at least 12 events and a lower confidence bound above 1%, using at most 0.5% per position and 1% per-agent total capital with a matching executable exit. Full directional sizing still requires positive 24-hour and 72-hour evidence, while one mature negative cohort can veto risk. Sports contest NO research is zero-capital until its forward confidence gate passes. Protected bundles require exact depth and fee checks on entry; when every live bid can realize at least 85% of remaining guaranteed profit, all legs exit atomically to book the gain and recycle capital. Phones and computers display the same read-only autonomous state. Profits are not guaranteed.</div>
 
   <!-- ============ OVERVIEW ============ -->
   <section class="tabpanel" data-tab="overview">
@@ -745,7 +745,7 @@ footer{margin-top:34px;padding-top:22px;border-top:1px solid var(--border);color
   </section>
 
   <footer>
-    Build 122 · Adaptive strategy 64 · Evidence-first bounded snapshots · Six-hour bounded probation with matched executable exits · Serialized self-chained five-minute slots with cron recovery · Oldest-first bounded learning transport · Restart-safe offline runtime · Exact-fee directional learning · Capital-efficient, event-capped verified bundles · Conservative intact-bundle accounting · Contest-deduplicated sports shadow research · Corrected one-decision-per-event settlement audit · Autonomous runtime 2 · Offline runtime 3 · Maker research 3 · Agent learning 3 · Paper trading only · Live prices from Polymarket's public Gamma and CLOB APIs · Not financial advice ·
+    Build 123 · Adaptive strategy 64 · Evidence-first bounded snapshots · Six-hour bounded probation with matched executable exits · Serialized self-chained five-minute slots with cron recovery · Oldest-first bounded learning transport · Restart-safe offline runtime · Exact-fee directional learning · Capital-efficient, event-capped verified bundles · Atomic verified bundle-profit recycling · Conservative intact-bundle accounting · Contest-deduplicated sports shadow research · Corrected one-decision-per-event settlement audit · Autonomous runtime 2 · Offline runtime 3 · Maker research 3 · Agent learning 3 · Paper trading only · Live prices from Polymarket's public Gamma and CLOB APIs · Not financial advice ·
     <a class="market-link" href="https://github.com/theodore-song/polymarket-analyst" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Source on GitHub</a>
   </footer>
 </div>
@@ -774,7 +774,7 @@ const POLITICS_TREND_MIN_HOLD_HOURS = 72;
 const EXIT_CONFIRM_HOURS = 6;
 const AGENTS_KEY = "pma_agents_v2";
 const SUG_KEY = "pma_suggestions_v5";
-const BUILD_VERSION = 122;
+const BUILD_VERSION = 123;
 const AGENT_LEARNING_VERSION = 3;
 const SUGGESTION_ENGINE_VERSION = 64;
 const MAKER_STRATEGY_VERSION = 3;
@@ -1317,6 +1317,47 @@ function bundleExecutableLeg(book,units,feeSchedule){
   const askPrice=cost/Number(units),feePerShare=feeConfigValid?fees/Number(units):SIGNAL_ROUND_TRIP_COST;
   return {ask_price:askPrice,fee_per_share:feePerShare,total_price:askPrice+feePerShare,fee_config_valid:feeConfigValid};
 }
+function bundleBookBidLevels(book){
+  return (book&&Array.isArray(book.bids)?book.bids:[]).map(row=>({price:Number(row.price),size:Number(row.size)}))
+    .filter(row=>Number.isFinite(row.price)&&row.price>0&&row.price<1&&Number.isFinite(row.size)&&row.size>0)
+    .sort((a,b)=>b.price-a.price);
+}
+function bundleExecutableSaleLeg(book,units,feeSchedule){
+  let remaining=Number(units),gross=0,fees=0,feeConfigValid=Boolean(feeSchedule);if(!(remaining>0))return null;
+  for(const level of bundleBookBidLevels(book)){
+    const filled=Math.min(remaining,level.size),fee=bundleFeePerShare(feeSchedule,level.price);
+    gross+=filled*level.price;if(Number.isFinite(fee))fees+=filled*fee;else feeConfigValid=false;
+    remaining-=filled;if(remaining<=1e-9)break;
+  }
+  if(remaining>1e-9)return null;
+  const bidPrice=gross/Number(units),feePerShare=feeConfigValid?fees/Number(units):SIGNAL_ROUND_TRIP_COST;
+  return {bid_price:bidPrice,fee_per_share:feePerShare,net_price:bidPrice-feePerShare,fee_config_valid:feeConfigValid};
+}
+function bundleExitQuote(group,books,priceMap,reportedFees){
+  if(!Array.isArray(group)||group.length<2)return {status:"incomplete-group",actionable:false,depth_verified:false,fees_verified:false,legs:[]};
+  const units=Math.min(...group.map(pos=>Number(pos.shares||0))),cost=group.reduce((sum,pos)=>sum+Number(pos.cost||0),0);
+  const payoutPerUnit=Math.min(...group.map(pos=>Number(pos.bundle_payout_per_unit||0))),settlementPayout=units*payoutPerUnit;
+  const settlementProfit=Math.max(0,settlementPayout-cost);
+  const legs=group.map(pos=>{
+    const fresh=priceMap&&priceMap[String(pos.market_id)],conditionId=String(pos.condition_id||fresh&&fresh.condition_id||"");
+    const feeSchedule=pos.fee_schedule||fresh&&fresh.fee_schedule||null,reported=reportedFees&&reportedFees.get(conditionId);
+    const feeVerified=Boolean(conditionId&&bundleFeeSchedulesMatch(feeSchedule,reported));
+    const executable=bundleExecutableSaleLeg(books&&books.get(String(pos.token_id||"")),units,feeSchedule);
+    return {position:pos,condition_id:conditionId,fee_schedule:feeSchedule,fee_verified:feeVerified,
+      depth_verified:Boolean(executable),bid_price:executable?+executable.bid_price.toFixed(6):null,
+      fee_per_share:executable?+executable.fee_per_share.toFixed(6):null,net_price:executable?+executable.net_price.toFixed(6):null,
+      net_proceeds:executable?+(units*executable.net_price).toFixed(2):null};
+  });
+  const depthVerified=units>0&&legs.every(leg=>leg.depth_verified),feesVerified=legs.every(leg=>leg.fee_verified&&leg.depth_verified&&leg.net_price>0);
+  const proceeds=depthVerified&&feesVerified?+legs.reduce((sum,leg)=>sum+Number(leg.net_proceeds||0),0).toFixed(2):0;
+  const realizedProfit=+(proceeds-cost).toFixed(2),requiredProfit=Math.max(BUNDLE_EXIT_MIN_REALIZED_PROFIT,settlementProfit*BUNDLE_EXIT_PROFIT_CAPTURE);
+  const captureRatio=settlementProfit>0?realizedProfit/settlementProfit:0;
+  const actionable=depthVerified&&feesVerified&&realizedProfit+0.005>=requiredProfit;
+  return {status:actionable?"capture-ready":(!depthVerified?"insufficient-bid-depth":(!feesVerified?"fee-verification-unavailable":"capture-below-threshold")),
+    actionable,depth_verified:depthVerified,fees_verified:feesVerified,units,cost:+cost.toFixed(2),settlement_payout:+settlementPayout.toFixed(2),
+    settlement_profit:+settlementProfit.toFixed(2),required_profit:+requiredProfit.toFixed(2),proceeds,realized_profit:realizedProfit,
+    capture_ratio:+captureRatio.toFixed(4),legs};
+}
 function bundleMinimumExecutionUnits(unitCost,baselineUnits=0){
   const cost=Number(unitCost),baseline=Math.max(0,Number(baselineUnits)||0);
   if(!(cost>0))return +Math.max(BUNDLE_MIN_UNITS,baseline).toFixed(2);
@@ -1558,6 +1599,8 @@ const BUNDLE_MIN_UNITS=5;
 const BUNDLE_MAX_VERIFIED_NOTIONAL=400;
 const BUNDLE_EVENT_CAP_PCT=0.12;
 const BUNDLE_MIN_DAILY_RETURN=0.0002;
+const BUNDLE_EXIT_PROFIT_CAPTURE=0.85;
+const BUNDLE_EXIT_MIN_REALIZED_PROFIT=0.01;
 const SPORTS_FAVORITE_MIN_ENTRY=0.03;
 const SPORTS_FAVORITE_MAX_ENTRY=0.97;
 const SPORTS_FAVORITE_TARGET_LEAD_HOURS=72;
@@ -2559,6 +2602,53 @@ function mergeCompleteBinaryBundle(p,bundleId){
     detail:`Merged equal YES/NO shares immediately for ${fmtUSD(proceeds)} collateral (realized ${fmtUSD(realized)} after exact modeled execution costs)`});
   return {units,proceeds,cost:totalCost,realized};
 }
+function closeCompleteBundleGroupAtVerifiedBids(p,group,quote){
+  if(!p||!quote||!quote.actionable||!Array.isArray(group)||group.length<2)return null;
+  const members=new Set(group),closedAt=cycleIso();p.cash=+(Number(p.cash||0)+Number(quote.proceeds||0)).toFixed(2);
+  quote.legs.forEach(leg=>{
+    const pos=leg.position,netProceeds=Number(leg.net_proceeds||0);
+    pos.exit_price=Number(leg.bid_price||0);pos.exit_fee=+(Number(leg.fee_per_share||0)*Number(quote.units||0)).toFixed(2);
+    pos.current_price=pos.exit_price;pos.value=+netProceeds.toFixed(2);pos.unrealized_pnl=0;pos.closed_at=closedAt;
+    pos.close_reason=`Verified bundle profit recycling at ${(quote.capture_ratio*100).toFixed(1)}% of settlement profit`;
+    pos.close_action="RECYCLE";pos.bundle_recycled_at=closedAt;
+    pos.realized_pnl=+(netProceeds-Number(pos.cost||0)+Number(pos.partial_realized_pnl||0)).toFixed(2);p.closed.push(pos);
+  });
+  p.positions=(p.positions||[]).filter(pos=>!members.has(pos));
+  p.history.push({date:logDay(),action:"RECYCLE",question:group[0].bundle_name||group[0].question,side:"MIXED",
+    detail:`Atomically sold every bundle leg into verified bid depth for ${fmtUSD(quote.proceeds)}, realizing ${fmtUSD(quote.realized_profit)} now (${(quote.capture_ratio*100).toFixed(1)}% of its remaining guaranteed settlement profit) and releasing the capital.`});
+  return {bundle_id:String(group[0].bundle_id||""),proceeds:quote.proceeds,realized_profit:quote.realized_profit,capture_ratio:quote.capture_ratio};
+}
+async function recycleVerifiedBundleCapital(st,priceMap,{execute=true}={}){
+  const records=[];
+  if(st&&st.agents)AGENTS.forEach(agent=>{
+    const portfolio=st.agents[agent.id];completeBundleGroups(portfolio).forEach(group=>records.push({agent_id:agent.id,portfolio,group}));
+  });
+  const base={status:execute?"ok":"disabled-offline",groups:records.length,depth_verified:0,fee_verified:0,capture_ready:0,exited:0,
+    capital_released:0,realized_profit:0,profit_capture_threshold:BUNDLE_EXIT_PROFIT_CAPTURE};
+  if(!execute||!records.length)return base;
+  const eligible=records.filter(({group})=>group.every(pos=>{
+    const fresh=priceMap&&priceMap[String(pos.market_id)];return pos.token_id&&fresh&&!marketIsSettled(fresh)&&!marketIsSuspended(fresh)
+      &&String(pos.condition_id||fresh.condition_id||"");
+  }));
+  if(!eligible.length)return Object.assign(base,{status:"no-live-eligible-groups"});
+  try{
+    const tokenIds=eligible.flatMap(({group})=>group.map(pos=>pos.token_id));
+    const conditionIds=eligible.flatMap(({group})=>group.map(pos=>String(pos.condition_id||priceMap[String(pos.market_id)]&&priceMap[String(pos.market_id)].condition_id||"")));
+    const [books,reportedFees]=await Promise.all([fetchBundleBooks(tokenIds),fetchBundleFeeSchedules(conditionIds)]);
+    for(const record of eligible){
+      const quote=bundleExitQuote(record.group,books,priceMap,reportedFees);
+      if(quote.depth_verified)base.depth_verified++;
+      if(quote.fees_verified)base.fee_verified++;
+      if(!quote.actionable)continue;
+      base.capture_ready++;
+      const closed=closeCompleteBundleGroupAtVerifiedBids(record.portfolio,record.group,quote);if(!closed)continue;
+      base.exited++;base.capital_released=+(base.capital_released+closed.proceeds).toFixed(2);
+      base.realized_profit=+(base.realized_profit+closed.realized_profit).toFixed(2);
+    }
+    return base;
+  }catch(error){return Object.assign(base,{status:"unavailable",error:String(error&&error.message||error)});}
+}
+function bundleRecyclingCanExecute(runMode,executeTrades){return runMode==="live"&&Boolean(executeTrades);}
 function completeBundleAccountingFloor(group){
   const cost=group.reduce((sum,pos)=>sum+Number(pos.cost||0),0);
   const payoutPerUnit=Math.min(...group.map(pos=>Number(pos.bundle_payout_per_unit||0)));
@@ -4217,7 +4307,7 @@ function openNegativeRiskBundle(p,cfg,s,stake,decision){
   const bundleSide=s.bundle_side||s.side||"NO";
   const openedAt=cycleIso(),positions=legs.map(leg=>{
     const entry=Number(leg.entry_price),current=Number(leg.current_price),cost=+(units*entry).toFixed(2),side=leg.side||bundleSide;
-    return {market_id:String(leg.market_id),question:leg.question,side,shares:units,token_id:leg.token_id||null,
+    return {market_id:String(leg.market_id),condition_id:leg.condition_id||null,question:leg.question,side,shares:units,token_id:leg.token_id||null,
       entry_price:+entry.toFixed(4),current_price:+current.toFixed(4),cost,value:+(units*current).toFixed(2),
       original_shares:units,original_cost:cost,unrealized_pnl:+(units*current-cost).toFixed(2),conviction:s.conviction,peer_conviction:s.conviction,
       category:s.category,opened_at:openedAt,url:leg.url||s.url||"",peer_note:"",entry_reason:s.rationale||"",net_edge:s.net_edge,evidence_score:1,evidence_source_count:0,
@@ -4225,7 +4315,7 @@ function openNegativeRiskBundle(p,cfg,s,stake,decision){
       momentum_strength:0,signal_strength:1,signal_confidence:1,signal_type:"bundle-arb",price_change_1d:0,price_change_1w:0,
       days_to_resolution:s.days_to_resolution,jump_risk:false,bundle_id:s.bundle_id,bundle_event_id:bundleEventKey(s),bundle_name:s.event||s.question,bundle_leg_count:legs.length,
       bundle_payout_per_unit:s.bundle_payout_per_unit,bundle_net_profit_per_unit:s.bundle_net_profit_per_unit,requires_complete_bundle:true,
-      bundle_logic:s.bundle_logic||null,bundle_immediate_merge:Boolean(s.bundle_immediate_merge),
+      bundle_logic:s.bundle_logic||null,bundle_immediate_merge:Boolean(s.bundle_immediate_merge),fee_schedule:leg.fee_schedule||null,
       learning_score:0,learning_confidence:0,market_learning_score:0,market_learning_confidence:0,learning_state:"priced-bundle",market_learning_state:"priced-bundle",
       historical_prior_score:0,historical_prior_confidence:0,historical_prior_features:[],historical_requires_promotion:false,
       learning_multiplier:1,learning_exploration:false,risk_budget_pct:+(tradeLossBudgetPct(cfg,s)*100).toFixed(2),
@@ -4676,6 +4766,8 @@ async function runDailyCycle(){
     AGENTS.forEach(agent=>{makerActivityByAgent[agent.id]=manageMakerQuotes(st.agents[agent.id],quoteMarketMap,
       {executeTrades:runMode==="live"&&executeTrades,touchHistory:makerTouchHistory});});
     const sharedMakerProfile=buildSharedMakerProfile(st);
+    if(runMode==="live"&&executeTrades)setStatus("checking protected bundle profit exits…",true);
+    const bundleRecycleActivity=await recycleVerifiedBundleCapital(st,priceMap,{execute:bundleRecyclingCanExecute(runMode,executeTrades)});
     for(const cfg of AGENTS){
       const p=st.agents[cfg.id];
       markToMarket(p,priceMap,cfg,{policyExits:executeTrades,executeTrades});
@@ -4752,6 +4844,14 @@ async function runDailyCycle(){
         }
       }
     }
+    const valueDecision=st.agents.value&&st.agents.value.lastDecision;
+    if(valueDecision){
+      st.agents.value.lastDecision=Object.assign({},valueDecision,{bundleRecycling:bundleRecycleActivity});
+      const recycleSummary=bundleRecycleActivity.status==="unavailable"
+        ?"Protected bundle exit verification was unavailable, so every guarantee stayed intact."
+        :`Protected bundle recycling checked ${bundleRecycleActivity.groups} complete group${bundleRecycleActivity.groups===1?"":"s"}; ${bundleRecycleActivity.depth_verified} had full bid depth, ${bundleRecycleActivity.fee_verified} passed exact fee verification, and ${bundleRecycleActivity.exited} atomically realized at least ${(BUNDLE_EXIT_PROFIT_CAPTURE*100).toFixed(0)}% of remaining settlement profit${bundleRecycleActivity.exited?`, releasing ${fmtUSD(bundleRecycleActivity.capital_released)} and realizing ${fmtUSD(bundleRecycleActivity.realized_profit)}`:""}.`;
+      st.agents.value.lastDecision.allocationStatus=`${st.agents.value.lastDecision.allocationStatus||""} ${recycleSummary}`.trim();
+    }
     const shockStage=stageShockFadeShadows(shockPortfolio,cycleSuggestions,{execute:runMode==="live"&&entriesAllowed,usedClaimKeys:claimedShockEvents});
     const shockProfile=sharedShockFadePilotProfile(st);
     [...SHOCK_FADE_ADOPTER_IDS].forEach(id=>{
@@ -6591,6 +6691,9 @@ window.PMA_ENGINE_DIAGNOSTICS=Object.freeze({
   tradeLossBudgetPct,
   boundedStakeForRisk,
   bundleMinimumExecutionUnits,
+  bundleExecutableSaleLeg,
+  bundleExitQuote,
+  recycleVerifiedBundleCapital,
   portfolioPositionValue,
   applyCompleteBundleAccountingMarks,
   sportsFavoritePilotSuggestion,
@@ -7301,6 +7404,25 @@ function runEngineSelfTest(){
   const depthLimitedBundleBooks=new Map((zeroFeeBundleSuggestion.bundle_legs||[]).map((leg,index)=>[String(leg.token_id),
     {min_order_size:"5",asks:[{price:String(scalableBundlePrices[index]),size:String(index===2?120:500)}]}]));
   const depthLimitedBundleQuote=maximizeBundleExecution(zeroFeeBundleSuggestion,depthLimitedBundleBooks,bundleMinimumExecutionUnits(0.95));
+  const recyclableBundleBook=defaultPortfolio();recyclableBundleBook.cash=9905;
+  recyclableBundleBook.positions=[
+    {market_id:"recycle-a",condition_id:"recycle-condition-a",question:"Recycle A",side:"YES",shares:100,token_id:"recycle-token-a",entry_price:0.475,current_price:0.49,cost:47.5,value:47.5,
+      bundle_id:"bundle:recycle:yes",bundle_name:"Recycle fixture",bundle_leg_count:2,bundle_payout_per_unit:1,bundle_net_profit_per_unit:0.05,requires_complete_bundle:true,fee_schedule:{rate:0,exponent:1,takerOnly:true}},
+    {market_id:"recycle-b",condition_id:"recycle-condition-b",question:"Recycle B",side:"YES",shares:100,token_id:"recycle-token-b",entry_price:0.475,current_price:0.49,cost:47.5,value:47.5,
+      bundle_id:"bundle:recycle:yes",bundle_name:"Recycle fixture",bundle_leg_count:2,bundle_payout_per_unit:1,bundle_net_profit_per_unit:0.05,requires_complete_bundle:true,fee_schedule:{rate:0,exponent:1,takerOnly:true}},
+  ];
+  const recyclableGroup=completeBundleGroups(recyclableBundleBook)[0],recyclePriceMap={
+    "recycle-a":{condition_id:"recycle-condition-a",fee_schedule:{rate:0,exponent:1,takerOnly:true},closed:false,accepting_orders:true},
+    "recycle-b":{condition_id:"recycle-condition-b",fee_schedule:{rate:0,exponent:1,takerOnly:true},closed:false,accepting_orders:true},
+  };
+  const recycleFees=new Map([["recycle-condition-a",{rate:0,exponent:1,takerOnly:true}],["recycle-condition-b",{rate:0,exponent:1,takerOnly:true}]]);
+  const recycleBooksAt=(price,size=200)=>new Map([["recycle-token-a",{bids:[{price:String(price),size:String(size)}]}],["recycle-token-b",{bids:[{price:String(price),size:String(size)}]}]]);
+  const belowCaptureBundleExit=bundleExitQuote(recyclableGroup,recycleBooksAt(0.495),recyclePriceMap,recycleFees);
+  const shallowBundleExit=bundleExitQuote(recyclableGroup,recycleBooksAt(0.4965,50),recyclePriceMap,recycleFees);
+  const mismatchedExitFees=new Map(recycleFees);mismatchedExitFees.set("recycle-condition-b",{rate:0.01,exponent:1,takerOnly:true});
+  const mismatchedFeeBundleExit=bundleExitQuote(recyclableGroup,recycleBooksAt(0.4965),recyclePriceMap,mismatchedExitFees);
+  const recyclableBundleExit=bundleExitQuote(recyclableGroup,recycleBooksAt(0.4965),recyclePriceMap,recycleFees);
+  const recycledBundleClose=closeCompleteBundleGroupAtVerifiedBids(recyclableBundleBook,recyclableGroup,recyclableBundleExit);
   const tinyReturnBundle=negativeRiskBundleSuggestion({id:"bundle-tiny",title:"Ten-way result",slug:"bundle-tiny",negRisk:true,enableNegRisk:true,markets:Array.from({length:10},(_,i)=>({
     id:`bundle-tiny-${i}`,question:`Outcome ${i+1}`,outcomes:'["Yes","No"]',outcomePrices:'["0.1055","0.8945"]',clobTokenIds:`["tiny-${i}-yes","tiny-${i}-no"]`,
     bestBid:0.1055,bestAsk:0.1065,liquidityNum:30000,volumeNum:100000,volume24hr:10000,acceptingOrders:true,
@@ -7902,6 +8024,14 @@ function runEngineSelfTest(){
       derivesLegacyBundleEventKey:bundleEventKey({bundle_id:"dominance:legacy-event:market-a:market-b"})==="legacy-event",
       capsUnderlyingEventExposure:eventCapBook.positions.length===2&&eventCapBook.lastDecision.rejectionCounts.bundle_event_cap===1,
       blocksLowReturnPerLockedDay:slowCapitalBook.positions.length===0&&slowCapitalBook.lastDecision.rejectionCounts.bundle_capital_efficiency===1,
+      consumesLiveBidDepthForExit:bundleExecutableSaleLeg({bids:[{price:"0.50",size:"30"},{price:"0.49",size:"20"}]},50,{rate:0,exponent:1,takerOnly:true}).bid_price===0.496,
+      holdsWhenOnlyEightyPercentProfitIsAvailable:!belowCaptureBundleExit.actionable&&belowCaptureBundleExit.status==="capture-below-threshold"
+        &&belowCaptureBundleExit.capture_ratio===0.8,
+      blocksBundleExitWithoutFullBidDepth:!shallowBundleExit.actionable&&!shallowBundleExit.depth_verified,
+      blocksBundleExitOnFeeMismatch:!mismatchedFeeBundleExit.actionable&&!mismatchedFeeBundleExit.fees_verified,
+      atomicallyRecyclesEightySixPercentProfit:Boolean(recycledBundleClose&&recyclableBundleExit.actionable&&recyclableBundleExit.capture_ratio===0.86
+        &&recyclableBundleBook.positions.length===0&&recyclableBundleBook.closed.length===2&&recyclableBundleBook.cash===10004.3
+        &&recycledBundleClose.realized_profit===4.3),
       usesMarketSpecificZeroFee:Boolean(zeroFeeBundleSuggestion&&zeroFeeBundleSuggestion.friction===0
         &&zeroFeeBundleSuggestion.bundle_cost_per_unit===0.95&&zeroFeeBundleSuggestion.bundle_net_profit_per_unit===0.05),
       appliesPublishedFeeCurve:bundleFeePerShare({rate:0.07,exponent:1,takerOnly:true},0.5)===0.0175,
@@ -7977,6 +8107,7 @@ function runEngineSelfTest(){
       yesBundle:{openedPositions:yesBundleOpenedPositions,closedPositions:yesBundleBook.closed.length,cash:yesBundleBook.cash,units:yesBundleUnits||0},
     },
     offline:{fresh:offlineCachePolicy(30*60000),staleEntry:offlineCachePolicy(3*3600000),expired:offlineCachePolicy(25*3600000),
+      bundleProfitRecyclingRequiresLive:!bundleRecyclingCanExecute("offline-cache",true)&&!bundleRecyclingCanExecute("live",false)&&bundleRecyclingCanExecute("live",true),
       cloudRestartReconstructsUsableCache:Boolean(runtimeFallbackCache&&runtimeFallbackCache.runtime_reconstructed
         &&offlineCachePolicy(runtimeFallbackCache.age_ms).entriesAllowed&&runtimeFallbackCache.suggestions.length===1),
       reconstructedCacheIncludesOpenPositions:Boolean(runtimeFallbackCache&&runtimeFallbackCache.price_map["offline-open-position"]

scripts/test-autonomous-runtime.mjs

@@ -13,8 +13,8 @@ const adaptiveAudit = JSON.parse(fs.readFileSync(new URL("../research/adaptive-s
 const sportsEvaluator = fs.readFileSync(new URL("./evaluate-sports-favorites.mjs", import.meta.url), "utf8");
 const build = Number(index.match(/const BUILD_VERSION = (\d+);/)?.[1]);
 
-assert.equal(build, 122);
+assert.equal(build, 123);
-assert.match(index, /Adaptive strategy 64 · durable evidence · build 122/);
+assert.match(index, /Adaptive strategy 64 · durable evidence · build 123/);
 assert.deepEqual([...ALLOWED_RUNTIME_KEYS].sort(), ["pma_agents_v2", "pma_suggestions_v5"]);
 assert.match(index, /function collectPublicRuntimeItems\(\)/);
 assert.match(index, /const PUBLIC_RUNTIME_KEYS=Object\.freeze\(\[AGENTS_KEY,SUG_KEY\]\)/);
@@ -101,6 +101,10 @@ assert.match(index, /function bundleVerificationShortlist\(candidates\)/);
 assert.match(index, /function prioritizeIndependentBundles\(candidates,limit=Infinity\)/);
 assert.match(index, /prioritizesIndependentEventsBeforeAlternates:/);
 assert.match(index, /function bundleEventExposure\(portfolio,eventKey\)/);
+assert.match(index, /function recycleVerifiedBundleCapital\(st,priceMap,\{execute=true\}=\{\}\)/);
+assert.match(index, /bundleProfitRecyclingRequiresLive:/);
+assert.match(index, /const BUNDLE_EXIT_PROFIT_CAPTURE=0\.85;/);
+assert.match(index, /atomicallyRecyclesEightySixPercentProfit:/);
 assert.match(index, /prioritizesReturnPerLockedDay:/);
 assert.match(index, /capsUnderlyingEventExposure:/);
 assert.match(index, /blocksLowReturnPerLockedDay:/);

sw.js

@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
-const CACHE_NAME = "polymarket-arena-build-122";
+const CACHE_NAME = "polymarket-arena-build-123";
 const APP_SHELL = ["/", "/index.html", "/personal.html", "/cycle-worker.js"];
 
 self.addEventListener("install", event => {