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Recycle verified bundle profits early
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@@ -23,7 +23,7 @@ Offline cycles can apply calibration already earned from live observations, but
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the evidence ledger is read-only: cached prices cannot grade pending signals,
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expire horizons, or create new observations.
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Build 122 targets five-minute slots with a serialized, self-chained GitHub Actions runtime.
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Build 123 targets five-minute slots with a serialized, self-chained GitHub Actions runtime.
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It continues from the previous agent snapshot and runs the next due paper cycle
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even when no browser is open. After each successful cycle, one repo-scoped
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workflow dispatch waits for the next five-minute boundary; one concurrency group
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@@ -63,7 +63,7 @@ Polymarket event key. Related Ethereum or Bitcoin contracts cannot create
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several simultaneous copies of one move, and outcomes from the same underlying
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three-hour shock window count as one learner event.
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Each Build 122 cycle also scans the 1,000 most-active Polymarket events for
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Each Build 123 cycle also scans the 1,000 most-active Polymarket events for
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complete negative-risk bundles and logically nested threshold or deadline
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pairs, plus same-market YES/NO complements whose equal shares have a fixed
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$1 redemption value. Polymarket's documented complete-set merge converts equal
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@@ -80,18 +80,22 @@ the best structure from each independent event checked before alternates from ev
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already represented. They are repriced
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from batched CLOB asks from the equal-unit size needed for at least a $50
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paper order up to a $400 verified-notional ceiling. The scanner applies each market's Gamma fee schedule at every
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consumed ask level and checks the CLOB fee-rate endpoint for a matching enabled
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or fee-free state. Any opened position is capped to the exact equal-unit size
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consumed ask level and checks the exact CLOB condition metadata for a matching
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fee curve or fee-free state. Any opened position is capped to the exact equal-unit size
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of the largest fill that stays profitable and passes this depth test; portfolio
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cash, reserve, and 4% limits can reduce it further. Strategy 64 ranks verified
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structures by net return per expected locked day before raw edge, and caps active
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cost from one underlying event at 12% of Value Hunter equity. This prevents
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several related threshold pairs from monopolizing the non-directional book while
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preserving every already-open complete bundle until settlement. New bundles must
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several related threshold pairs from monopolizing the non-directional book. New bundles must
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also clear a 0.02% daily locked-capital return floor, approximately 7.3% annualized,
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so a tiny spread cannot immobilize capital for months. Existing paper bundles are
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never retroactively enlarged against depth their original simulated fill would
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already have consumed. A bundle can enter Value Discipline only when that fee check
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already have consumed. Each live cycle also prices an atomic exit across every bid
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level needed to sell every leg of each intact bundle. It verifies every condition's
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exact fee schedule again and exits only when net proceeds realize at least 85% of
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the remaining guaranteed settlement profit. Missing depth, mismatched fees, or a
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smaller profit capture leave the guarantee intact; cached offline cycles cannot
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execute this recycling path. A bundle can enter Value Discipline only when that fee check
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passes and the resulting worst-case payout clears both the three-tenths-cent
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profit floor and the 0.15% return floor. Top-of-book gaps, missing books,
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incomplete fee schedules, and unavailable fee verification remain audit-only.
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@@ -99,7 +103,7 @@ The Suggestions view stores scan, depth, fee, actionable, and closest
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executable-margin counts so an empty lane is evidence rather than an ambiguous
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failure.
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Build 122 retains the directional learner's exact-fee policy, which replaced the blanket half-cent cost with
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Build 123 retains the directional learner's exact-fee policy, which replaced the blanket half-cent cost with
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the market's Gamma fee schedule at both the entry and future checkpoint, plus a
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separate half-cent round-trip slippage allowance. Fee-free markets pay only the
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slippage allowance; an unavailable fee schedule gets a conservative four-cent
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@@ -124,7 +128,7 @@ Every probation position exits at the matching six-hour executable bid and keeps
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the 18% stop policy active. Normal directional sizing remains locked until the
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same cohort independently passes both the 24-hour and 72-hour promotion gates.
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Build 122 retains Build 100's retirement of the old 3-6 day resolution-window
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Build 123 retains Build 100's retirement of the old 3-6 day resolution-window
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capital permission. That audit clustered confidence by event but still averaged
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several correlated contracts inside each event, while production could choose
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only one. The corrected replay chooses the highest-volume eligible contract per event and
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@@ -244,7 +248,7 @@ evidence proves an edge.
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Run `npm run evaluate:sports-favorites` for the retired pregame favorite audit.
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Its 12-hour, 60%-75% cohort had positive point estimates but did not establish a
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reliable confidence bound, so Build 122 no longer allocates capital to that rule.
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reliable confidence bound, so Build 123 no longer allocates capital to that rule.
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Strategy 64 also tracks the exact-fee settlement calibration's three-day Sports
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NO cohort as a zero-capital forward lane. The corrected 5,000-market run
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