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Grade only closed markets as settled

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Theodore Song
2026-08-20 18:00:52 -04:00
parent 7e75d98d8c
commit 11ea832daf
3 changed files with 43 additions and 14 deletions
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README.md
+9 -3
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@@ -15,18 +15,24 @@ https://polymarket-site-eta.vercel.app/personal.html
The site fetches live Polymarket markets, generates agent suggestions, lets you
run frequent paper cycles, and syncs the shared arena state through Neon or
Vercel Blob. Build 71 also installs an offline app shell and caches timestamped
Vercel Blob. Build 72 also installs an offline app shell and caches timestamped
market snapshots. During an outage, cycles continue locally; cached entries are
allowed for 90 minutes, older snapshots become mark-only, and all cached data
expires after 24 hours.
Build 72 distinguishes a temporary order-book pause from settlement. Exact
market refreshes still mark paused positions to the latest published price, but
the engine cannot simulate a stop, policy exit, or settlement while
`acceptingOrders` is false and `closed` is still false. Only a closed market
books the final paper proceeds and contributes a completed learner outcome.
The live scan now continues through activity-ranked pages until it has the 500
most-active eligible Yes/No contracts. Markets whose actual outcome labels are
team names, Over/Under, or another pair are rejected instead of being silently
reinterpreted as Yes/No. The same semantic check applies to complete event
bundles and the offline evaluators.
Build 71 ranks the competition by each agent's return since Strategy 57 began.
Build 72 ranks the competition by each agent's return since Strategy 57 began.
Historical replay equity remains visible for context, but it no longer makes an
agent look like the current leader when the live adaptive strategy is losing.
@@ -60,7 +66,7 @@ cohort can demote it.
The Build 69 re-audit loaded all 500 requested histories with no failures. The
six-hour family lost 1.27% net on average across 106 independent events, with
its full 90% interval below zero; no tested rule was robustly positive at 6,
12, 24, or 72 hours. Build 71 therefore uses six hours only to stop bad regimes
12, 24, or 72 hours. Build 72 therefore uses six hours only to stop bad regimes
sooner. It also closes every stale pre-Strategy-57 directional holding at the
next fresh mark, including legacy records missing a signal label, while leaving
complete arbitrage bundles and paired maker inventory under their own accounting.
index.html
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@@ -341,7 +341,7 @@ footer{margin-top:34px;padding-top:22px;border-top:1px solid var(--border);color
<nav class="topnav">
<div class="brand">
<div class="logo">🏆</div>
<div><div class="brand-name">Polymarket Arena</div><div class="brand-sub">10 agents · 5 core + 5 aggressive</div><div class="build-badge">Adaptive strategy 57 · maker research 2 · build 71</div></div>
<div><div class="brand-name">Polymarket Arena</div><div class="brand-sub">10 agents · 5 core + 5 aggressive</div><div class="build-badge">Adaptive strategy 57 · maker research 2 · build 72</div></div>
</div>
<div class="tabs" id="tabs">
<button class="tab" data-tab="overview">Overview</button>
@@ -363,7 +363,7 @@ footer{margin-top:34px;padding-top:22px;border-top:1px solid var(--border);color
<div class="personal-banner" id="personalBanner">
<b>Personal research mode.</b> This copy is for your own analysis, paper tracking, and manual trade research only. It does not pool money, onboard investors, custody funds, bypass eligibility rules, or place orders without your manual approval.
</div>
<div class="live-build-banner"><b>Build 71 active:</b> Favorite Backer now runs a small, self-disabling sports-favorite pilot shaped by a 3,000-market chronological replay: one 60–85% favorite per independent event, entered only within three hours of the 24-hour pregame checkpoint. It starts at 1.25% of equity, stops if live settlement evidence turns materially negative, and can scale only after a positive confidence bound. Fresh cached snapshots remain usable for 90 minutes with timing rechecked locally. This remains paper trading; profits are not guaranteed.</div>
<div class="live-build-banner"><b>Build 72 active:</b> Favorite Backer's sports-favorite pilot now distinguishes a temporary trading pause from a resolved market. Paused positions stay open and cannot fire simulated stops, exits, or learner outcomes; only Polymarket's closed-market state books settlement. The pilot remains one 60–85% favorite per independent event near the 24-hour checkpoint, starts at 1.25% of equity, disables on materially negative completed evidence, and scales only after a positive confidence bound. Fresh cached snapshots remain usable for 90 minutes with timing rechecked locally. This remains paper trading; profits are not guaranteed.</div>
<!-- ============ OVERVIEW ============ -->
<section class="tabpanel" data-tab="overview">
@@ -745,7 +745,7 @@ footer{margin-top:34px;padding-top:22px;border-top:1px solid var(--border);color
</section>
<footer>
Build 71 · Adaptive strategy 57 · Maker research 2 · Paper trading only · Live prices from Polymarket's public Gamma and CLOB APIs · Not financial advice ·
Build 72 · Adaptive strategy 57 · Maker research 2 · Paper trading only · Live prices from Polymarket's public Gamma and CLOB APIs · Not financial advice ·
<a class="market-link" href="https://github.com/theodore-song/polymarket-analyst" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Source on GitHub</a>
</footer>
</div>
@@ -774,7 +774,7 @@ const POLITICS_TREND_MIN_HOLD_HOURS = 72;
const EXIT_CONFIRM_HOURS = 6;
const AGENTS_KEY = "pma_agents_v2";
const SUG_KEY = "pma_suggestions_v5";
const BUILD_VERSION = 71;
const BUILD_VERSION = 72;
const SUGGESTION_ENGINE_VERSION = 57;
const MAKER_STRATEGY_VERSION = 2;
const PREVIOUS_STRATEGY_VERSION = 56;
@@ -2409,6 +2409,8 @@ function exitReason(pos,fresh,analysis,cfg){
}else delete pos.signal_fade_since;
return null;
}
function marketIsSettled(fresh){return Boolean(fresh&&fresh.closed);}
function marketIsSuspended(fresh){return Boolean(fresh&&!fresh.closed&&fresh.accepting_orders===false);}
function markToMarket(p,priceMap,cfg=null,{policyExits=false,executeTrades=true}={}){
const stillOpen=[];
for(const pos of p.positions){
@@ -2425,13 +2427,24 @@ function markToMarket(p,priceMap,cfg=null,{policyExits=false,executeTrades=true}
if(executeTrades)delete pos.price_status;else pos.price_status="cached-mark-only";
if(!executeTrades){stillOpen.push(pos);continue;}
if(pos.signal_type==="maker-pair"&&pos.maker_pair_pending){
if(fresh.closed||fresh.accepting_orders===false){closePosition(p,pos,"Paired maker inventory settled before the second fill","CLOSE");continue;}
if(marketIsSettled(fresh)){closePosition(p,pos,"Paired maker inventory settled before the second fill","CLOSE");continue;}
if(marketIsSuspended(fresh))pos.price_status="orders-paused";
stillOpen.push(pos);continue;
}
if(pos.requires_complete_bundle){
if(fresh.closed||fresh.accepting_orders===false){closePosition(p,pos,"Complete bundle leg settled","CLOSE");continue;}
if(marketIsSettled(fresh)){closePosition(p,pos,"Complete bundle leg settled","CLOSE");continue;}
if(marketIsSuspended(fresh))pos.price_status="orders-paused";
stillOpen.push(pos);continue;
}
if(marketIsSettled(fresh)){
closePosition(p,pos,"Market settled","CLOSE");
continue;
}
if(marketIsSuspended(fresh)){
pos.price_status="orders-paused";
stillOpen.push(pos);
continue;
}
if(policyExits&&normalizedStrategyVersion(pos.strategy_version)<SUGGESTION_ENGINE_VERSION){
closePosition(p,pos,`Strategy ${SUGGESTION_ENGINE_VERSION} retired this legacy directional holding`,"EXIT");continue;
}
@@ -2439,10 +2452,6 @@ function markToMarket(p,priceMap,cfg=null,{policyExits=false,executeTrades=true}
if(pos._closedByStop){delete pos._closedByStop;continue;}
for(const gainTier of triggeredGainStops(pos))takeProfitPosition(p,pos,gainTier);
if(policyExits)normalizeLegacyPositionRisk(p,pos,cfg,fresh);
if(fresh.closed||fresh.accepting_orders===false){
closePosition(p,pos,"Market settled","CLOSE");
continue;
}
if(policyExits){
const reason=exitReason(pos,fresh,analyzeMarket(fresh),cfg);
if(reason){closePosition(p,pos,reason,"EXIT");continue;}
@@ -5063,6 +5072,8 @@ window.PMA_ENGINE_DIAGNOSTICS=Object.freeze({
boundedStakeForRisk,
sportsFavoritePilotSuggestion,
sportsFavoritePilotProfile,
marketIsSettled,
marketIsSuspended,
historicalPriceFeatures,
offlineCachePolicy,
prepareCycleSuggestions,
@@ -5284,6 +5295,12 @@ function runEngineSelfTest(){
markToMarket(stopFixture.book,{[stopFixture.pos.market_id]:market({id:stopFixture.pos.market_id,yes_price:0.4,no_price:0.6})},AGENTS[0],{policyExits:true,executeTrades:true});
const settlementFixture=accountingBook(1);
markToMarket(settlementFixture.book,{[settlementFixture.pos.market_id]:market({id:settlementFixture.pos.market_id,yes_price:1,no_price:0,closed:true,accepting_orders:false})},AGENTS[0],{policyExits:true,executeTrades:true});
const suspendedFixture=accountingBook(0.4);
markToMarket(suspendedFixture.book,{[suspendedFixture.pos.market_id]:market({id:suspendedFixture.pos.market_id,yes_price:0.4,no_price:0.6,closed:false,accepting_orders:false})},AGENTS[0],{policyExits:true,executeTrades:true});
const suspendedMakerFixture=accountingBook(0.4);suspendedMakerFixture.pos.signal_type="maker-pair";suspendedMakerFixture.pos.maker_pair_pending=true;
markToMarket(suspendedMakerFixture.book,{[suspendedMakerFixture.pos.market_id]:market({id:suspendedMakerFixture.pos.market_id,yes_price:0.4,no_price:0.6,closed:false,accepting_orders:false})},AGENTS[0],{policyExits:true,executeTrades:true});
const suspendedBundleFixture=accountingBook(0.4);suspendedBundleFixture.pos.requires_complete_bundle=true;
markToMarket(suspendedBundleFixture.book,{[suspendedBundleFixture.pos.market_id]:market({id:suspendedBundleFixture.pos.market_id,yes_price:0.4,no_price:0.6,closed:false,accepting_orders:false})},AGENTS[0],{policyExits:true,executeTrades:true});
const retiredFixture=accountingBook(0.45),retiredEquityBefore=equity(retiredFixture.book);
retiredFixture.pos.strategy_version=PREVIOUS_STRATEGY_VERSION;
markToMarket(retiredFixture.book,{[retiredFixture.pos.market_id]:market({id:retiredFixture.pos.market_id,yes_price:0.45,no_price:0.55})},AGENTS[0],{policyExits:true,executeTrades:true});
@@ -5575,6 +5592,12 @@ function runEngineSelfTest(){
partialThenCloseReconciles:partialFixture.book.cash===10200&&partialFixture.pos.realized_pnl===200,
stopOutReconciles:stopFixture.book.positions.length===0&&stopFixture.book.cash===9800&&stopFixture.book.closed[0].realized_pnl===-200,
settlementReconciles:settlementFixture.book.positions.length===0&&settlementFixture.book.cash===11000&&settlementFixture.book.closed[0].realized_pnl===1000,
suspendedMarketStaysOpen:suspendedFixture.book.positions.length===1&&suspendedFixture.book.closed.length===0
&&suspendedFixture.book.positions[0].price_status==="orders-paused"&&suspendedFixture.book.cash===9000,
suspendedMakerInventoryStaysOpen:suspendedMakerFixture.book.positions.length===1&&suspendedMakerFixture.book.closed.length===0
&&suspendedMakerFixture.book.positions[0].price_status==="orders-paused"&&suspendedMakerFixture.book.cash===9000,
suspendedBundleLegStaysOpen:suspendedBundleFixture.book.positions.length===1&&suspendedBundleFixture.book.closed.length===0
&&suspendedBundleFixture.book.positions[0].price_status==="orders-paused"&&suspendedBundleFixture.book.cash===9000,
retiredDirectionalPositionExitsAtFreshPrice:retiredFixture.book.positions.length===0&&retiredFixture.book.closed[0].close_reason.includes("retired")&&Math.abs(retiredFixture.book.cash-retiredEquityBefore)<=0.02,
unlabeledLegacyPositionExitsAtFreshPrice:unlabeledLegacyFixture.book.positions.length===0&&unlabeledLegacyFixture.book.closed[0].close_reason.includes("retired")&&Math.abs(unlabeledLegacyFixture.book.cash-unlabeledLegacyEquityBefore)<=0.02,
currentUnlabeledPositionIsPreserved:currentUnlabeledFixture.book.positions.length===1&&currentUnlabeledFixture.book.closed.length===0,
sw.js
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@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
const CACHE_NAME = "polymarket-arena-build-71";
const CACHE_NAME = "polymarket-arena-build-72";
const APP_SHELL = ["/", "/index.html", "/personal.html", "/cycle-worker.js"];
self.addEventListener("install", event => {