Support two-sided event bundle arbitrage

This commit is contained in:
Theodore Song
2026-08-19 08:16:34 -04:00
parent a5441e8659
commit 0dbc6bf650
4 changed files with 97 additions and 49 deletions
+12 -9
View File
@@ -15,12 +15,12 @@ https://polymarket-site-eta.vercel.app/personal.html
The site fetches live Polymarket markets, generates agent suggestions, lets you
run frequent paper cycles, and syncs the shared arena state through Neon or
Vercel Blob. Build 56 also installs an offline app shell and caches timestamped
Vercel Blob. Build 57 also installs an offline app shell and caches timestamped
market snapshots. During an outage, cycles continue locally; cached entries are
allowed for 90 minutes, older snapshots become mark-only, and all cached data
expires after 24 hours.
Build 56 ranks the competition by each agent's return since Strategy 50 began.
Build 57 ranks the competition by each agent's return since Strategy 50 began.
Historical replay equity remains visible for context, but it no longer makes an
agent look like the current leader when the live adaptive strategy is losing.
@@ -114,7 +114,7 @@ feature views before repeatable positive evidence can increase size or repeatabl
negative evidence can block a new entry. Mixed evidence stays close to neutral
instead of being mistaken for an edge.
Build 56 enforces the documented offline boundary end to end. Cached snapshots
Build 57 enforces the documented offline boundary end to end. Cached snapshots
under 90 minutes old may continue paper execution. Older snapshots remain usable
for valuation and chart snapshots for up to 24 hours, but cannot trigger entries,
stop-losses, gain-stops, risk rebalances, settlements, or policy exits. Network
@@ -127,7 +127,7 @@ adaptive baselines, pending signal grades, and trade evidence remain in one stra
lineage until the actual entry, sizing, or exit logic changes. Legacy build 40 and 41
records are migrated into the same strategy lineage without losing evidence.
Build 56 independently refreshes markets for matured pending signals that have
Build 57 independently refreshes markets for matured pending signals that have
left the current top-500 activity scan. Unavailable markets remain queued for a
bounded retry window. This prevents activity-rank survivorship from deciding
which wins and losses reach the adaptive calibration ledger.
@@ -156,11 +156,14 @@ liquid negative-risk events and zero positive worst-case bundle returns after
costs. Midpoint price sums sometimes looked attractive, but executable spreads
removed the apparent edge. The August 18 rerun found 35 eligible events and one
three-leg NO bundle with a 0.25%
modeled margin after estimated costs. Strategy 50 can paper-trade such a bundle
only from live executable prices, opens every leg together, and holds the hedge
intact until settlement. It also requires at least a 0.15% modeled net return so
large bundles cannot tie up capital for a negligible absolute edge. Cached bundle
prices are never allowed to open positions.
modeled margin after estimated costs. The corrected August 19 scan found 39
eligible events and no currently actionable bundle; its closest complete bundle
remained 0.37% negative after modeled costs. Strategy 50 can paper-trade either a
complete YES or complete NO bundle only from live executable prices, opens every
leg together, and holds
the hedge intact until settlement. It also requires at least a 0.15% modeled net
return so large bundles cannot tie up capital for a negligible absolute edge.
Cached bundle prices are never allowed to open positions.
The expanded event-clustered run loaded history for 498 of the 500 highest-volume
resolved markets with no fetch failures. No side, price band, category, trend,