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Support two-sided event bundle arbitrage
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@@ -15,12 +15,12 @@ https://polymarket-site-eta.vercel.app/personal.html
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The site fetches live Polymarket markets, generates agent suggestions, lets you
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run frequent paper cycles, and syncs the shared arena state through Neon or
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Vercel Blob. Build 56 also installs an offline app shell and caches timestamped
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Vercel Blob. Build 57 also installs an offline app shell and caches timestamped
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market snapshots. During an outage, cycles continue locally; cached entries are
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allowed for 90 minutes, older snapshots become mark-only, and all cached data
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expires after 24 hours.
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Build 56 ranks the competition by each agent's return since Strategy 50 began.
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Build 57 ranks the competition by each agent's return since Strategy 50 began.
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Historical replay equity remains visible for context, but it no longer makes an
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agent look like the current leader when the live adaptive strategy is losing.
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@@ -114,7 +114,7 @@ feature views before repeatable positive evidence can increase size or repeatabl
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negative evidence can block a new entry. Mixed evidence stays close to neutral
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instead of being mistaken for an edge.
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Build 56 enforces the documented offline boundary end to end. Cached snapshots
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Build 57 enforces the documented offline boundary end to end. Cached snapshots
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under 90 minutes old may continue paper execution. Older snapshots remain usable
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for valuation and chart snapshots for up to 24 hours, but cannot trigger entries,
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stop-losses, gain-stops, risk rebalances, settlements, or policy exits. Network
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@@ -127,7 +127,7 @@ adaptive baselines, pending signal grades, and trade evidence remain in one stra
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lineage until the actual entry, sizing, or exit logic changes. Legacy build 40 and 41
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records are migrated into the same strategy lineage without losing evidence.
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Build 56 independently refreshes markets for matured pending signals that have
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Build 57 independently refreshes markets for matured pending signals that have
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left the current top-500 activity scan. Unavailable markets remain queued for a
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bounded retry window. This prevents activity-rank survivorship from deciding
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which wins and losses reach the adaptive calibration ledger.
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@@ -156,11 +156,14 @@ liquid negative-risk events and zero positive worst-case bundle returns after
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costs. Midpoint price sums sometimes looked attractive, but executable spreads
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removed the apparent edge. The August 18 rerun found 35 eligible events and one
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three-leg NO bundle with a 0.25%
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modeled margin after estimated costs. Strategy 50 can paper-trade such a bundle
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only from live executable prices, opens every leg together, and holds the hedge
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intact until settlement. It also requires at least a 0.15% modeled net return so
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large bundles cannot tie up capital for a negligible absolute edge. Cached bundle
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prices are never allowed to open positions.
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modeled margin after estimated costs. The corrected August 19 scan found 39
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eligible events and no currently actionable bundle; its closest complete bundle
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remained 0.37% negative after modeled costs. Strategy 50 can paper-trade either a
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complete YES or complete NO bundle only from live executable prices, opens every
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leg together, and holds
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the hedge intact until settlement. It also requires at least a 0.15% modeled net
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return so large bundles cannot tie up capital for a negligible absolute edge.
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Cached bundle prices are never allowed to open positions.
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The expanded event-clustered run loaded history for 498 of the 500 highest-volume
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resolved markets with no fetch failures. No side, price band, category, trend,
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