Grade signals beyond the active scan

This commit is contained in:
Theodore Song
2026-08-18 10:24:05 -04:00
parent aea8f5281d
commit 0db53c46f8
3 changed files with 62 additions and 14 deletions
+7 -2
View File
@@ -15,7 +15,7 @@ https://polymarket-site-eta.vercel.app/personal.html
The site fetches live Polymarket markets, generates agent suggestions, lets you
run frequent paper cycles, and syncs the shared arena state through Neon or
Vercel Blob. Build 42 also installs an offline app shell and caches timestamped
Vercel Blob. Build 43 also installs an offline app shell and caches timestamped
market snapshots. During an outage, cycles continue locally; cached entries are
allowed for 90 minutes, older snapshots become mark-only, and all cached data
expires after 24 hours.
@@ -82,7 +82,7 @@ feature views before repeatable positive evidence can increase size or repeatabl
negative evidence can block a new entry. Mixed evidence stays close to neutral
instead of being mistaken for an edge.
Build 42 enforces the documented offline boundary end to end. Cached snapshots
Build 43 enforces the documented offline boundary end to end. Cached snapshots
under 90 minutes old may continue paper execution. Older snapshots remain usable
for valuation and chart snapshots for up to 24 hours, but cannot trigger entries,
stop-losses, gain-stops, risk rebalances, settlements, or policy exits. Network
@@ -95,6 +95,11 @@ adaptive baselines, pending signal grades, and trade evidence remain in strategy
40 until the actual entry, sizing, or exit logic changes. Legacy build 40 and 41
records are migrated into the same strategy lineage without losing evidence.
Build 43 independently refreshes markets for matured pending signals that have
left the current top-500 activity scan. Unavailable markets remain queued for a
bounded retry window. This prevents activity-rank survivorship from deciding
which wins and losses reach the adaptive calibration ledger.
Run `npm run evaluate:settlements` to evaluate fixed decisions made 1, 3, 7,
14, 30, and 90 days before known binary settlements. The audit uses one
observation per resolved market and horizon, includes losing contracts at zero,