Scan live deadline dominance bundles

README.md

@@ -307,6 +307,17 @@ non-Yes/No labels, inadequate liquidity, and non-positive margins are rejected.
 An earlier parser had mistaken Over/Under labels for Yes/No; the label-aware
 scanner and live engine retain a regression test for that failure mode.
 
+Build 78 expands the same-event dominance audit to explicit calendar deadlines.
+For otherwise identical questions, buying NO on the earlier deadline and YES on
+the later deadline guarantees at least one winning contract whether the event
+happens early, happens between the dates, or never happens by the later date.
+The August 21 audit found 198 valid deadline pairs among the 500 most-active
+events and no pair with a positive executable margin after the half-cent-per-leg
+allowance. The live scanner still monitors them every cycle and can open both
+legs atomically when a positive gap appears. Mixed explicit/implicit years,
+invalid dates, changed wording, non-Yes/No labels, stale quotes, and
+non-positive margins are rejected.
+
 Build 77 separates the directional learner's evidence lineage from the global
 strategy release. Code-history verification found the same trend/reversal
 generator and 24-hour/72-hour grading policy in Strategy 51 through Strategy

index.html

@@ -341,7 +341,7 @@ footer{margin-top:34px;padding-top:22px;border-top:1px solid var(--border);color
   <nav class="topnav">
     <div class="brand">
       <div class="logo">🏆</div>
-      <div><div class="brand-name">Polymarket Arena</div><div class="brand-sub">10 agents · 5 core + 5 aggressive</div><div class="build-badge">Adaptive strategy 58 · signal policy 1 · build 77</div></div>
+      <div><div class="brand-name">Polymarket Arena</div><div class="brand-sub">10 agents · 5 core + 5 aggressive</div><div class="build-badge">Adaptive strategy 58 · signal policy 1 · build 78</div></div>
     </div>
     <div class="tabs" id="tabs">
       <button class="tab" data-tab="overview">Overview</button>
@@ -363,7 +363,7 @@ footer{margin-top:34px;padding-top:22px;border-top:1px solid var(--border);color
   <div class="personal-banner" id="personalBanner">
     <b>Personal research mode.</b> This copy is for your own analysis, paper tracking, and manual trade research only. It does not pool money, onboard investors, custody funds, bypass eligibility rules, or place orders without your manual approval.
   </div>
-  <div class="live-build-banner"><b>Build 77 active:</b> directional evidence now follows its own signal-policy version, so unrelated sports, maker, and bundle releases no longer erase compatible trend/reversal learning. Code-history verification found the same forward directional generator and 24h/72h grading policy in Strategy 51–58, so those outcomes can promote profitable cohorts or veto losing ones immediately; Strategy 50 and older remain historical. Returning to the app or reconnecting also triggers an immediate catch-up scan. Bundle entries still require current executable prices and a positive margin after costs. This remains paper trading; profits are not guaranteed.</div>
+  <div class="live-build-banner"><b>Build 78 active:</b> Value Hunter now checks same-event calendar deadlines as well as numeric thresholds and explicit negative-risk events. For identical questions with an earlier and later deadline, NO-earlier plus YES-later guarantees at least one payout; both live legs open only when current executable prices leave a positive margin after costs. The latest 500-event audit found 198 valid deadline pairs but none currently profitable, so the scanner waits instead of forcing a loss. Directional Strategy 51–58 evidence still survives unrelated releases. This remains paper trading; profits are not guaranteed.</div>
 
   <!-- ============ OVERVIEW ============ -->
   <section class="tabpanel" data-tab="overview">
@@ -745,7 +745,7 @@ footer{margin-top:34px;padding-top:22px;border-top:1px solid var(--border);color
   </section>
 
   <footer>
-    Build 77 · Adaptive strategy 58 · Signal policy 1 · Paper trading only · Live prices from Polymarket's public Gamma and CLOB APIs · Not financial advice ·
+    Build 78 · Adaptive strategy 58 · Signal policy 1 · Paper trading only · Live prices from Polymarket's public Gamma and CLOB APIs · Not financial advice ·
     <a class="market-link" href="https://github.com/theodore-song/polymarket-analyst" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Source on GitHub</a>
   </footer>
 </div>
@@ -774,7 +774,7 @@ const POLITICS_TREND_MIN_HOLD_HOURS = 72;
 const EXIT_CONFIRM_HOURS = 6;
 const AGENTS_KEY = "pma_agents_v2";
 const SUG_KEY = "pma_suggestions_v5";
-const BUILD_VERSION = 77;
+const BUILD_VERSION = 78;
 const SUGGESTION_ENGINE_VERSION = 58;
 const MAKER_STRATEGY_VERSION = 2;
 const PREVIOUS_STRATEGY_VERSION = 57;
@@ -1075,6 +1075,8 @@ const DOMINANCE_THRESHOLD_PATTERNS=Object.freeze([
   {direction:"above",regex:/(\b(?:above|over|at least|higher than|greater than)\s*(?:[$€£]\s*)?)([0-9]+(?:,[0-9]{3})*(?:\.[0-9]+)?)\s*(k|m|b|%|bps)?\b/i},
   {direction:"below",regex:/(\b(?:below|(?<!\/)under|at most|lower than|less than)\s*(?:[$€£]\s*)?)([0-9]+(?:,[0-9]{3})*(?:\.[0-9]+)?)\s*(k|m|b|%|bps)?\b/i},
 ]);
+const DOMINANCE_MONTHS=Object.freeze({january:1,february:2,march:3,april:4,may:5,june:6,july:7,august:8,september:9,october:10,november:11,december:12});
+const DOMINANCE_DEADLINE_PATTERN=/\b((?:on\s+or\s+)?(?:by|before)\s+(?:the\s+)?)(january|february|march|april|may|june|july|august|september|october|november|december)\s+(\d{1,2})(?:st|nd|rd|th)?(?:,?\s+(\d{4}))?\b/i;
 function parseDominanceThreshold(question){
   const text=String(question||"").trim();
   for(const pattern of DOMINANCE_THRESHOLD_PATTERNS){
@@ -1084,56 +1086,71 @@ function parseDominanceThreshold(question){
     if(!Number.isFinite(value))continue;
     const valueStart=match.index+match[1].length,valueEnd=valueStart+match[2].length;
     const stem=`${text.slice(0,valueStart)}{threshold}${text.slice(valueEnd)}`.toLowerCase().replace(/\s+/g," ").trim();
-    return {direction:pattern.direction,value,stem};
+    return {kind:"threshold",direction:pattern.direction,value,stem};
   }
   return null;
 }
+function parseDominanceDeadline(question){
+  const text=String(question||"").trim(),match=DOMINANCE_DEADLINE_PATTERN.exec(text);if(!match)return null;
+  const month=DOMINANCE_MONTHS[String(match[2]).toLowerCase()],day=Number(match[3]),year=match[4]?Number(match[4]):null;
+  if(!month||!Number.isInteger(day)||day<1||day>new Date(Date.UTC(year||2024,month,0)).getUTCDate())return null;
+  const dateStart=match.index+match[1].length,dateEnd=match.index+match[0].length;
+  const stem=`${text.slice(0,dateStart)}{deadline}${text.slice(dateEnd)}`.toLowerCase().replace(/\s+/g," ").trim();
+  return {kind:"deadline",direction:"deadline",value:year?year*10000+month*100+day:month*100+day,
+    yearMode:year?"explicit-year":"implicit-year",stem};
+}
 function dominanceBundleSuggestions(event){
   if(!event||event.closed||event.active===false)return [];
   const rawLegs=Array.isArray(event.markets)?event.markets:[],eventTags=Array.isArray(event.tags)?event.tags:[];
   const quotes=rawLegs.map(raw=>{
-    const threshold=parseDominanceThreshold(raw.question),outcomes=parseJsonField(raw.outcomes).map(outcome=>String(outcome||"").trim().toLowerCase());
+    const contract=parseDominanceThreshold(raw.question)||parseDominanceDeadline(raw.question);
+    const outcomes=parseJsonField(raw.outcomes).map(outcome=>String(outcome||"").trim().toLowerCase());
     const prices=parseJsonField(raw.outcomePrices).map(toNum),tokens=parseJsonField(raw.clobTokenIds).map(String);
     const yesBid=toNum(raw.bestBid,NaN),yesAsk=toNum(raw.bestAsk,NaN),liquidity=toNum(raw.liquidityNum||raw.liquidity);
-    if(!threshold||outcomes.length!==2||outcomes[0]!=="yes"||outcomes[1]!=="no"||prices.length!==2||tokens.length!==2
+    if(!contract||outcomes.length!==2||outcomes[0]!=="yes"||outcomes[1]!=="no"||prices.length!==2||tokens.length!==2
       ||!tokens[0]||!tokens[1]||!Number.isFinite(yesBid)||!Number.isFinite(yesAsk)||yesBid<0||yesAsk>1||yesAsk<yesBid
       ||liquidity<NEG_RISK_MIN_LIQUIDITY||raw.closed||raw.active===false||raw.acceptingOrders===false)return null;
-    return Object.assign({},threshold,{market_id:String(raw.id||""),question:String(raw.question||"").trim(),yes_bid:yesBid,yes_ask:yesAsk,
+    return Object.assign({},contract,{market_id:String(raw.id||""),question:String(raw.question||"").trim(),yes_bid:yesBid,yes_ask:yesAsk,
       yes_mid:prices[0],no_mid:prices[1],yes_token:tokens[0],no_token:tokens[1],liquidity,
       volume:toNum(raw.volumeNum||raw.volume),volume_24hr:toNum(raw.volume24hr),spread:toNum(raw.spread),
       url:event.slug?`https://polymarket.com/event/${event.slug}`:""});
   }).filter(Boolean);
   const grouped=new Map();
-  quotes.forEach(quote=>{const key=`${quote.direction}|${quote.stem}`,rows=grouped.get(key)||[];rows.push(quote);grouped.set(key,rows);});
+  quotes.forEach(quote=>{const key=`${quote.kind}|${quote.direction}|${quote.yearMode||""}|${quote.stem}`,rows=grouped.get(key)||[];rows.push(quote);grouped.set(key,rows);});
   const candidates=[];
   for(const rows of grouped.values()){
     if(rows.length<2||new Set(rows.map(row=>row.value)).size!==rows.length)continue;
     const ordered=[...rows].sort((a,b)=>a.value-b.value);
     for(let left=0;left<ordered.length-1;left++)for(let right=left+1;right<ordered.length;right++){
-      const lower=ordered[left],higher=ordered[right],superset=lower.direction==="above"?lower:higher,subset=lower.direction==="above"?higher:lower;
+      const lower=ordered[left],higher=ordered[right],deadline=lower.kind==="deadline";
-      const legs=[
+      const superset=deadline?null:(lower.direction==="above"?lower:higher),subset=deadline?null:(lower.direction==="above"?higher:lower);
-        {market_id:superset.market_id,question:superset.question,side:"YES",token_id:superset.yes_token,
+      const pair=deadline?[{quote:lower,side:"NO"},{quote:higher,side:"YES"}]:[{quote:superset,side:"YES"},{quote:subset,side:"NO"}];
-          entry_price:superset.yes_ask+SIGNAL_ROUND_TRIP_COST,current_price:superset.yes_mid,liquidity:superset.liquidity,url:superset.url},
+      const legs=pair.map(({quote,side})=>({market_id:quote.market_id,question:quote.question,side,
-        {market_id:subset.market_id,question:subset.question,side:"NO",token_id:subset.no_token,
+        token_id:side==="YES"?quote.yes_token:quote.no_token,
-          entry_price:1-subset.yes_bid+SIGNAL_ROUND_TRIP_COST,current_price:subset.no_mid,liquidity:subset.liquidity,url:subset.url},
+        entry_price:(side==="YES"?quote.yes_ask:1-quote.yes_bid)+SIGNAL_ROUND_TRIP_COST,
-      ].map(leg=>Object.assign({},leg,{entry_price:+leg.entry_price.toFixed(4),current_price:+Number(leg.current_price).toFixed(4)}));
+        current_price:side==="YES"?quote.yes_mid:quote.no_mid,liquidity:quote.liquidity,url:quote.url}))
+        .map(leg=>Object.assign({},leg,{entry_price:+leg.entry_price.toFixed(4),current_price:+Number(leg.current_price).toFixed(4)}));
       if(legs.some(leg=>!leg.market_id||!Number.isFinite(leg.entry_price)||!Number.isFinite(leg.current_price)||leg.entry_price<=0||leg.entry_price>=1))continue;
       const cost=legs.reduce((sum,leg)=>sum+leg.entry_price,0),payout=1,profit=payout-cost,netReturn=profit/cost;
       if(profit<NEG_RISK_MIN_NET_PROFIT||netReturn<NEG_RISK_MIN_NET_RETURN)continue;
-      const bundleId=`dominance:${event.id}:${superset.market_id}:${subset.market_id}`;
+      const bundleLogic=deadline?"deadline-dominance":"threshold-dominance",bundleId=`dominance:${event.id}:${legs[0].market_id}:${legs[1].market_id}`;
-      candidates.push({market_id:bundleId,bundle_id:bundleId,bundle_side:"MIXED",bundle_logic:"threshold-dominance",
+      const relation=deadline?`${lower.question} is the earlier deadline and ${higher.question} is the later deadline`
-        question:`Dominance pair: ${event.title||superset.stem.replace("{threshold}","___")}`,event:event.title||"",url:superset.url,
+        :`${superset.question} logically contains ${subset.question}`;
+      const strategy=deadline?"Buying NO on the earlier deadline and YES on the later deadline":"Buying YES on the superset and NO on the subset";
+      const quoteA=pair[0].quote,quoteB=pair[1].quote;
+      candidates.push({market_id:bundleId,bundle_id:bundleId,bundle_side:"MIXED",bundle_logic:bundleLogic,
+        question:`Dominance pair: ${event.title||(deadline?lower.stem.replace("{deadline}","___"):superset.stem.replace("{threshold}","___"))}`,event:event.title||"",url:legs[0].url,
         category:classifyCategory(eventTags),tags:eventTags.map(tag=>tag.label).filter(Boolean).slice(0,4),side:"MIXED",
         entry_price:+(cost/2).toFixed(4),yes_price:+(cost/2).toFixed(4),no_price:+(cost/2).toFixed(4),fair_value:+(payout/2).toFixed(4),
         edge:+netReturn.toFixed(4),net_edge:+netReturn.toFixed(4),friction:+(SIGNAL_ROUND_TRIP_COST*2).toFixed(4),chase_penalty:0,
         evidence_score:1,evidence_source_count:0,quality:"bundle-arb",conviction:+clamp(80+netReturn*1200,80,96).toFixed(1),
-        volume:superset.volume+subset.volume,volume_24hr:superset.volume_24hr+subset.volume_24hr,liquidity:Math.min(superset.liquidity,subset.liquidity),
+        volume:quoteA.volume+quoteB.volume,volume_24hr:quoteA.volume_24hr+quoteB.volume_24hr,liquidity:Math.min(quoteA.liquidity,quoteB.liquidity),
-        spread:Math.max(superset.spread,subset.spread),price_change_1h:0,price_change_1d:0,price_change_1w:0,momentum_strength:0,
+        spread:Math.max(quoteA.spread,quoteB.spread),price_change_1h:0,price_change_1d:0,price_change_1w:0,momentum_strength:0,
         signal_strength:1,signal_confidence:1,signal_type:"bundle-arb",trade_ready:true,entry_candidate:true,audited_observation_only:false,
         adaptive_promotion:false,watch_only:false,jump_risk:false,requires_live:true,days_to_resolution:daysUntil(event.endDate),
         bundle_cost_per_unit:+cost.toFixed(4),bundle_payout_per_unit:payout,bundle_net_profit_per_unit:+profit.toFixed(4),bundle_legs:legs,
-        drivers:["same-event nested thresholds","live executable ask pair","guaranteed minimum one-contract payout","positive margin after estimated costs"],
+        drivers:[deadline?"same-event nested deadlines":"same-event nested thresholds","live executable ask pair","guaranteed minimum one-contract payout","positive margin after estimated costs"],
-        rationale:`Threshold dominance: ${superset.question} logically contains ${subset.question}. Buying YES on the superset and NO on the subset costs ${cost.toFixed(3)} per pair against a guaranteed minimum payout of $1.00 when both use the same event terms. The modeled margin is ${profit.toFixed(3)} (${(netReturn*100).toFixed(2)}%) after 0.5c estimated cost per leg. Both live legs must open together and remain paired through settlement.`});
+        rationale:`${deadline?"Deadline":"Threshold"} dominance: ${relation}. ${strategy} costs ${cost.toFixed(3)} per pair against a guaranteed minimum payout of $1.00 when both use the same event terms. The modeled margin is ${profit.toFixed(3)} (${(netReturn*100).toFixed(2)}%) after 0.5c estimated cost per leg. Both live legs must open together and remain paired through settlement.`});
     }
   }
   return candidates.sort((a,b)=>b.net_edge-a.net_edge);
@@ -5242,6 +5259,7 @@ window.PMA_ENGINE_DIAGNOSTICS=Object.freeze({
   analyzeMarket,
   negativeRiskBundleSuggestion,
   parseDominanceThreshold,
+  parseDominanceDeadline,
   dominanceBundleSuggestions,
   buildAdaptiveProfile,
   historicalOpportunityPrior,
@@ -5275,7 +5293,7 @@ window.PMA_ENGINE_DIAGNOSTICS=Object.freeze({
     directionalSignalsRequirePromotion:true,directionalSignalPolicyVersion:DIRECTIONAL_SIGNAL_POLICY_VERSION,
     directionalSignalCompatibleStrategies:[DIRECTIONAL_SIGNAL_COMPATIBLE_STRATEGY_MIN,DIRECTIONAL_SIGNAL_COMPATIBLE_STRATEGY_MAX],
     focusAndReconnectCatchup:true,liveOnlyCompleteBundles:true,negativeRiskBundleSides:["YES","NO"],negativeRiskEventScanLimit:NEG_RISK_EVENT_SCAN_LIMIT,
-    dominanceBundleLogic:"same-event nested threshold YES/NO pairs with identical normalized terms",
+    dominanceBundleLogic:"same-event nested threshold or calendar-deadline YES/NO pairs with identical normalized terms",
     negativeRiskMinimumNetReturnPct:NEG_RISK_MIN_NET_RETURN*100,
     pairedMakerQuotes:"reward-book-audited-shadow-until-promoted",makerStrategyVersion:MAKER_STRATEGY_VERSION,
     makerShadowHorizonHours:MAKER_SHADOW_HORIZON_HOURS,makerLegacyQuoteExpiryHours:MAKER_QUOTE_EXPIRY_HOURS,makerMinimumLockMarginPct:MAKER_MIN_LOCK_MARGIN*100,
@@ -5623,6 +5641,24 @@ function runEngineSelfTest(){
     Object.assign({},dominanceEvent.markets[1],{id:"expensive-b",bestBid:0.50}),
   ]}).length===0;
   const nonBinaryDominanceRejected=dominanceBundleSuggestions({id:"dominance-labels",title:"Non-binary pair",markets:dominanceEvent.markets.map((row,index)=>Object.assign({},row,{id:`nonbinary-${index}`,outcomes:'["Over","Under"]'}))}).length===0;
+  const deadlineEvent={id:"deadline-test",title:"Acme launch deadline",slug:"acme-launch-deadline",tags:[{slug:"business",label:"Business"}],markets:[
+    {id:"deadline-early",question:"Will Acme launch by September 30, 2026?",outcomes:'["Yes","No"]',outcomePrices:'["0.595","0.405"]',clobTokenIds:'["deadline-early-yes","deadline-early-no"]',bestBid:0.60,bestAsk:0.61,liquidityNum:30000,volumeNum:100000,volume24hr:10000,spread:0.01,acceptingOrders:true},
+    {id:"deadline-late",question:"Will Acme launch by December 31, 2026?",outcomes:'["Yes","No"]',outcomePrices:'["0.545","0.455"]',clobTokenIds:'["deadline-late-yes","deadline-late-no"]',bestBid:0.54,bestAsk:0.55,liquidityNum:28000,volumeNum:100000,volume24hr:10000,spread:0.01,acceptingOrders:true},
+  ]};
+  const deadlineSuggestion=dominanceBundleSuggestions(deadlineEvent)[0];
+  const mismatchedDeadlineRejected=dominanceBundleSuggestions({id:"deadline-mismatch",title:"Mismatched deadline terms",markets:[
+    Object.assign({},deadlineEvent.markets[0],{id:"deadline-mismatch-a",question:"Will Acme launch by September 30, 2026?"}),
+    Object.assign({},deadlineEvent.markets[1],{id:"deadline-mismatch-b",question:"Will Beta launch by December 31, 2026?"}),
+  ]}).length===0;
+  const mixedDeadlineYearRejected=dominanceBundleSuggestions({id:"deadline-year-mismatch",title:"Mixed deadline years",markets:[
+    Object.assign({},deadlineEvent.markets[0],{id:"deadline-year-a",question:"Will Acme launch by September 30?"}),
+    Object.assign({},deadlineEvent.markets[1],{id:"deadline-year-b",question:"Will Acme launch by December 31, 2026?"}),
+  ]}).length===0;
+  const unprofitableDeadlineRejected=dominanceBundleSuggestions({id:"deadline-expensive",title:"Expensive deadline pair",markets:[
+    Object.assign({},deadlineEvent.markets[0],{id:"deadline-expensive-a",bestBid:0.50}),
+    Object.assign({},deadlineEvent.markets[1],{id:"deadline-expensive-b",bestAsk:0.50}),
+  ]}).length===0;
+  const invalidDeadlineRejected=parseDominanceDeadline("Will Acme launch by February 30, 2026?")===null;
   const dominanceBook=defaultPortfolio(),offlineDominanceSuggestion=prepareCycleSuggestions([dominanceSuggestion],"offline-cache",true)[0];
   openPositions(dominanceBook,AGENTS.find(a=>a.id==="value"),[dominanceSuggestion],"All",{
     minConv:0,maxNew:1,maxFrac:0.04,reserve:0.10,targetExposure:0.60,learning:buildAdaptiveProfile(dominanceBook),marketLearning:{samples:0,pending:0,buckets:{}},
@@ -5632,6 +5668,28 @@ function runEngineSelfTest(){
     "dominance-low":market({id:"dominance-low",yes_price:1,no_price:0,closed:true,accepting_orders:false}),
     "dominance-high":market({id:"dominance-high",yes_price:1,no_price:0,closed:true,accepting_orders:false}),
   },AGENTS.find(a=>a.id==="value"),{policyExits:true,executeTrades:true});
+  const deadlineBook=defaultPortfolio(),offlineDeadlineSuggestion=prepareCycleSuggestions([deadlineSuggestion],"offline-cache",true)[0];
+  openPositions(deadlineBook,AGENTS.find(a=>a.id==="value"),[deadlineSuggestion],"All",{
+    minConv:0,maxNew:1,maxFrac:0.04,reserve:0.10,targetExposure:0.60,learning:buildAdaptiveProfile(deadlineBook),marketLearning:{samples:0,pending:0,buckets:{}},
+  },new Set(),{});
+  const deadlineOpenedPositions=deadlineBook.positions.length,deadlineUnits=deadlineBook.positions[0]&&deadlineBook.positions[0].shares;
+  markToMarket(deadlineBook,{
+    "deadline-early":market({id:"deadline-early",yes_price:0,no_price:1,closed:true,accepting_orders:false}),
+    "deadline-late":market({id:"deadline-late",yes_price:0,no_price:1,closed:true,accepting_orders:false}),
+  },AGENTS.find(a=>a.id==="value"),{policyExits:true,executeTrades:true});
+  const settleDeadlineCase=(earlyYes,lateYes)=>{
+    const book=defaultPortfolio();
+    openPositions(book,AGENTS.find(a=>a.id==="value"),[deadlineSuggestion],"All",{
+      minConv:0,maxNew:1,maxFrac:0.04,reserve:0.10,targetExposure:0.60,learning:buildAdaptiveProfile(book),marketLearning:{samples:0,pending:0,buckets:{}},
+    },new Set(),{});
+    const units=book.positions[0]&&book.positions[0].shares;
+    markToMarket(book,{
+      "deadline-early":market({id:"deadline-early",yes_price:earlyYes,no_price:1-earlyYes,closed:true,accepting_orders:false}),
+      "deadline-late":market({id:"deadline-late",yes_price:lateYes,no_price:1-lateYes,closed:true,accepting_orders:false}),
+    },AGENTS.find(a=>a.id==="value"),{policyExits:true,executeTrades:true});
+    return {book,units};
+  };
+  const deadlineEarlyCase=settleDeadlineCase(1,1),deadlineBetweenCase=settleDeadlineCase(0,1);
   const bundleBook=defaultPortfolio();
   const offlineBundleSuggestion=prepareCycleSuggestions([bundleSuggestion],"offline-cache",true)[0];
   openPositions(bundleBook,AGENTS.find(a=>a.id==="value"),[bundleSuggestion],"All",{
@@ -5897,6 +5955,23 @@ function runEngineSelfTest(){
       rejectsMismatchedDominanceTerms:mismatchedDominanceRejected,
       rejectsUnprofitableDominancePair:unprofitableDominanceRejected,
       rejectsNonBinaryDominanceLabels:nonBinaryDominanceRejected,
+      identifiesDeadlineDominance:Boolean(deadlineSuggestion&&deadlineSuggestion.bundle_logic==="deadline-dominance"
+        &&deadlineSuggestion.bundle_cost_per_unit===0.96&&deadlineSuggestion.bundle_net_profit_per_unit===0.04
+        &&deadlineSuggestion.bundle_legs[0].market_id==="deadline-early"&&deadlineSuggestion.bundle_legs[0].side==="NO"
+        &&deadlineSuggestion.bundle_legs[1].market_id==="deadline-late"&&deadlineSuggestion.bundle_legs[1].side==="YES"),
+      rejectsMismatchedDeadlineTerms:mismatchedDeadlineRejected,
+      rejectsMixedExplicitAndImplicitDeadlineYears:mixedDeadlineYearRejected,
+      rejectsInvalidCalendarDeadline:invalidDeadlineRejected,
+      rejectsUnprofitableDeadlinePair:unprofitableDeadlineRejected,
+      deadlineRequiresLivePrices:Boolean(deadlineSuggestion&&deadlineSuggestion.requires_live),
+      staleDeadlineSnapshotCannotOpen:!offlineDeadlineSuggestion.trade_ready&&!offlineDeadlineSuggestion.entry_candidate&&offlineDeadlineSuggestion.watch_only,
+      opensDeadlineLegsAtomically:deadlineOpenedPositions===2&&deadlineUnits>0&&deadlineBook.closed.length===2,
+      deadlineWorstCaseSettlesProfitably:deadlineBook.positions.length===0&&deadlineBook.cash>STARTING_BALANCE
+        &&Math.abs(deadlineBook.cash-(STARTING_BALANCE+deadlineUnits*0.04))<=0.03,
+      deadlineEarlyOutcomePaysMinimum:deadlineEarlyCase.book.positions.length===0
+        &&Math.abs(deadlineEarlyCase.book.cash-(STARTING_BALANCE+deadlineEarlyCase.units*0.04))<=0.03,
+      deadlineBetweenDatesPaysBoth:deadlineBetweenCase.book.positions.length===0
+        &&Math.abs(deadlineBetweenCase.book.cash-(STARTING_BALANCE+deadlineBetweenCase.units*1.04))<=0.03,
       dominanceRequiresLivePrices:Boolean(dominanceSuggestion&&dominanceSuggestion.requires_live),
       staleDominanceSnapshotCannotOpen:!offlineDominanceSuggestion.trade_ready&&!offlineDominanceSuggestion.entry_candidate&&offlineDominanceSuggestion.watch_only,
       opensDominanceLegsAtomically:dominanceOpenedPositions===2&&dominanceUnits>0&&dominanceBook.closed.length===2,

scripts/evaluate-dominance.mjs

@@ -48,6 +48,9 @@ const THRESHOLD_PATTERNS = [
   { direction: "above", outcomeMode: "yes-no", regex: /(\b(?:above|over|at least|higher than|greater than)\s*(?:[$€£]\s*)?)([0-9]+(?:,[0-9]{3})*(?:\.[0-9]+)?)\s*(k|m|b|%|bps)?\b/i },
   { direction: "below", outcomeMode: "yes-no", regex: /(\b(?:below|(?<!\/)under|at most|lower than|less than)\s*(?:[$€£]\s*)?)([0-9]+(?:,[0-9]{3})*(?:\.[0-9]+)?)\s*(k|m|b|%|bps)?\b/i },
 ];
+const MONTHS = Object.freeze({ january: 1, february: 2, march: 3, april: 4, may: 5, june: 6,
+  july: 7, august: 8, september: 9, october: 10, november: 11, december: 12 });
+const DEADLINE_PATTERN = /\b((?:on\s+or\s+)?(?:by|before)\s+(?:the\s+)?)(january|february|march|april|may|june|july|august|september|october|november|december)\s+(\d{1,2})(?:st|nd|rd|th)?(?:,?\s+(\d{4}))?\b/i;
 
 function parseThreshold(question) {
   const text = String(question || "").trim();
@@ -66,6 +69,17 @@ function parseThreshold(question) {
   return null;
 }
 
+function parseDeadline(question) {
+  const text = String(question || "").trim(), match = DEADLINE_PATTERN.exec(text);
+  if (!match) return null;
+  const month = MONTHS[String(match[2]).toLowerCase()], day = Number(match[3]), year = match[4] ? Number(match[4]) : null;
+  if (!month || !Number.isInteger(day) || day < 1 || day > new Date(Date.UTC(year || 2024, month, 0)).getUTCDate()) return null;
+  const dateStart = match.index + match[1].length, dateEnd = match.index + match[0].length;
+  const stem = `${text.slice(0, dateStart)}{deadline}${text.slice(dateEnd)}`.toLowerCase().replace(/\s+/g, " ").trim();
+  return { direction: "deadline", value: year ? year * 10000 + month * 100 + day : month * 100 + day,
+    yearMode: year ? "explicit-year" : "implicit-year", stem };
+}
+
 function quoteMarket(raw, event) {
   const threshold = parseThreshold(raw.question);
   const tokens = parseJson(raw.clobTokenIds).map(String), prices = parseJson(raw.outcomePrices).map(number);
@@ -111,16 +125,60 @@ function evaluateEvent(event) {
   return candidates;
 }
 
+function evaluateDeadlineEvent(event) {
+  const quotes = (Array.isArray(event.markets) ? event.markets : []).map((raw) => {
+    const deadline = parseDeadline(raw.question), tokens = parseJson(raw.clobTokenIds).map(String);
+    const prices = parseJson(raw.outcomePrices).map(number), outcomes = parseJson(raw.outcomes).map((outcome) => String(outcome).trim().toLowerCase());
+    const bid = number(raw.bestBid), ask = number(raw.bestAsk), liquidity = number(raw.liquidityNum || raw.liquidity) || 0;
+    if (!deadline || tokens.length !== 2 || prices.length !== 2 || outcomes[0] !== "yes" || outcomes[1] !== "no" || !tokens[0] || !tokens[1]
+      || bid == null || ask == null || bid < 0 || ask > 1 || ask < bid || liquidity < MIN_LIQUIDITY
+      || raw.closed || raw.active === false || raw.acceptingOrders === false) return null;
+    return { ...deadline, marketId: String(raw.id || ""), question: raw.question || "", yesBid: bid, yesAsk: ask,
+      yesMid: prices[0], noMid: prices[1], yesToken: tokens[0], noToken: tokens[1], liquidity,
+      url: event.slug ? `https://polymarket.com/event/${event.slug}` : "" };
+  }).filter(Boolean);
+  const groups = new Map();
+  for (const quote of quotes) {
+    const key = `${quote.yearMode}|${quote.stem}`, group = groups.get(key) || [];
+    group.push(quote); groups.set(key, group);
+  }
+  const candidates = [];
+  for (const group of groups.values()) {
+    if (group.length < 2 || new Set(group.map((quote) => quote.value)).size !== group.length) continue;
+    const ordered = [...group].sort((a, b) => a.value - b.value);
+    for (let left = 0; left < ordered.length - 1; left++) {
+      for (let right = left + 1; right < ordered.length; right++) {
+        const earlier = ordered[left], later = ordered[right];
+        const noEntry = 1 - earlier.yesBid + COST_CENTS / 100, yesEntry = later.yesAsk + COST_CENTS / 100;
+        const cost = noEntry + yesEntry, profit = 1 - cost, netReturn = cost > 0 ? profit / cost : 0;
+        candidates.push({ eventId: String(event.id || ""), title: event.title || "", direction: "deadline",
+          earlierDeadline: earlier.value, laterDeadline: later.value, cost, payout: 1, profit, netReturn,
+          minimumLiquidity: Math.min(earlier.liquidity, later.liquidity), url: earlier.url,
+          legs: [{ marketId: earlier.marketId, question: earlier.question, side: "NO", entry: noEntry },
+            { marketId: later.marketId, question: later.question, side: "YES", entry: yesEntry }] });
+      }
+    }
+  }
+  return candidates;
+}
+
 const events = await fetchEvents(EVENT_LIMIT);
-const candidates = events.flatMap(evaluateEvent).sort((a, b) => b.netReturn - a.netReturn);
+const thresholdCandidates = events.flatMap(evaluateEvent), deadlineCandidates = events.flatMap(evaluateDeadlineEvent);
+const candidates = [...thresholdCandidates, ...deadlineCandidates].sort((a, b) => b.netReturn - a.netReturn);
 const actionable = candidates.filter((candidate) => candidate.profit >= MIN_NET_PROFIT && candidate.netReturn >= MIN_NET_RETURN);
+const actionableThresholds = actionable.filter((candidate) => candidate.direction !== "deadline");
+const actionableDeadlines = actionable.filter((candidate) => candidate.direction === "deadline");
 const compact = (candidate) => ({ eventId: candidate.eventId, title: candidate.title, direction: candidate.direction,
   supersetThreshold: candidate.supersetThreshold, subsetThreshold: candidate.subsetThreshold,
+  earlierDeadline: candidate.earlierDeadline, laterDeadline: candidate.laterDeadline,
   cost: +candidate.cost.toFixed(4), payout: candidate.payout, profit: +candidate.profit.toFixed(4),
   netReturn: +candidate.netReturn.toFixed(4), minimumLiquidity: +candidate.minimumLiquidity.toFixed(2),
   url: candidate.url, legs: candidate.legs.map((leg) => ({ ...leg, entry: +leg.entry.toFixed(4) })) });
 
 console.log(JSON.stringify({ generatedAt: new Date().toISOString(), requestedEvents: EVENT_LIMIT, fetchedEvents: events.length,
-  eligibleDominancePairs: candidates.length, actionablePairs: actionable.length, estimatedCostCentsPerLeg: COST_CENTS,
+  eligibleDominancePairs: candidates.length, thresholdPairs: thresholdCandidates.length, deadlinePairs: deadlineCandidates.length,
+  actionablePairs: actionable.length, actionableThresholdPairs: actionableThresholds.length, actionableDeadlinePairs: actionableDeadlines.length,
+  estimatedCostCentsPerLeg: COST_CENTS,
   minimumLiquidityPerLeg: MIN_LIQUIDITY, minimumNetProfitPerPair: MIN_NET_PROFIT, minimumNetReturn: MIN_NET_RETURN,
-  actionable: actionable.slice(0, 50).map(compact), bestObserved: candidates.slice(0, 20).map(compact) }, null, 2));
+  actionable: actionable.slice(0, 50).map(compact), bestObserved: candidates.slice(0, 20).map(compact),
+  bestDeadlineObserved: deadlineCandidates.sort((a, b) => b.netReturn - a.netReturn).slice(0, 20).map(compact) }, null, 2));

sw.js

@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
-const CACHE_NAME = "polymarket-arena-build-77";
+const CACHE_NAME = "polymarket-arena-build-78";
 const APP_SHELL = ["/", "/index.html", "/personal.html", "/cycle-worker.js"];
 
 self.addEventListener("install", event => {