theodore-song
919 lines
56 KiB
HTML
919 lines
56 KiB
HTML
<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="en">
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<head>
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<meta charset="UTF-8" />
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0" />
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<title>Polymarket Analyst — 5 AI Agents Compete to Trade Prediction Markets</title>
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<meta name="description" content="Daily AI analysis of Polymarket with five competing autonomous paper-trading agents and a live leaderboard. Runs entirely in your browser." />
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<link rel="preconnect" href="https://fonts.googleapis.com">
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<link rel="preconnect" href="https://fonts.gstatic.com" crossorigin>
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<link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Inter:wght@400;500;600;700;800&family=Space+Grotesk:wght@500;600;700&display=swap" rel="stylesheet">
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<link rel="icon" href="data:image/svg+xml,<svg xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg' viewBox='0 0 100 100'><text y='.9em' font-size='90'>🏆</text></svg>">
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<style>
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:root{
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--bg:#070b14;--bg2:#0b1120;--panel:rgba(22,29,46,.66);--panel-solid:#161d2e;
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--panel-2:rgba(36,45,68,.6);--border:rgba(255,255,255,.09);--border-strong:rgba(255,255,255,.16);
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--text:#eef2f9;--muted:#94a1bb;--green:#34d399;--red:#fb7185;--yellow:#fbbf24;
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--accent:#7c8cff;--accent2:#a878ff;--cyan:#38d2e6;
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--shadow:0 18px 50px -20px rgba(0,0,0,.7);
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}
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*{box-sizing:border-box}
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html{scroll-behavior:smooth}
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body{margin:0;font-family:'Inter',-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,"Segoe UI",Roboto,sans-serif;
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background:var(--bg);color:var(--text);line-height:1.5;-webkit-font-smoothing:antialiased;
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min-height:100vh;overflow-x:hidden}
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h1,h2,h3,.brand-name{font-family:'Space Grotesk','Inter',sans-serif}
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/* ---------- layered background imagery ---------- */
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.bg{position:fixed;inset:0;z-index:-2;overflow:hidden;
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background:
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radial-gradient(1200px 700px at 80% -10%, rgba(124,140,255,.18), transparent 60%),
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radial-gradient(900px 600px at 5% 10%, rgba(168,120,255,.16), transparent 55%),
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radial-gradient(1000px 800px at 50% 110%, rgba(56,210,230,.12), transparent 60%),
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linear-gradient(180deg,#070b14,#0a1020 40%,#070b14)}
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.bg::before{content:"";position:absolute;inset:0;opacity:.5;
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background-image:url("data:image/svg+xml,%3Csvg xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg' width='44' height='44'%3E%3Cpath d='M44 0H0V44' fill='none' stroke='%23ffffff' stroke-opacity='0.035' stroke-width='1'/%3E%3C/svg%3E")}
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.bg .orb{position:absolute;border-radius:50%;filter:blur(70px);opacity:.55;animation:float 18s ease-in-out infinite}
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.orb.a{width:480px;height:480px;left:-120px;top:-80px;background:radial-gradient(circle,#5b6cff,transparent 70%)}
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.orb.b{width:520px;height:520px;right:-140px;top:140px;background:radial-gradient(circle,#a878ff,transparent 70%);animation-delay:-6s}
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.orb.c{width:440px;height:440px;left:35%;bottom:-180px;background:radial-gradient(circle,#21b6c9,transparent 70%);animation-delay:-12s}
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@keyframes float{0%,100%{transform:translate(0,0)}50%{transform:translate(40px,-30px)}}
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.bg .chartline{position:absolute;left:0;right:0;bottom:0;width:100%;height:240px;opacity:.5}
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/* ---------- app shell ---------- */
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.app{max-width:1240px;margin:0 auto;padding:0 22px 60px}
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.topnav{position:sticky;top:0;z-index:50;display:flex;align-items:center;gap:18px;flex-wrap:wrap;
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padding:14px 18px;margin:14px 0 8px;border:1px solid var(--border);border-radius:18px;
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background:rgba(10,15,28,.72);backdrop-filter:blur(16px);box-shadow:var(--shadow)}
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.brand{display:flex;align-items:center;gap:11px}
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.logo{width:40px;height:40px;border-radius:12px;display:grid;place-items:center;font-size:20px;
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background:linear-gradient(135deg,var(--accent),var(--accent2));box-shadow:0 6px 20px -6px var(--accent)}
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.brand-name{font-size:18px;font-weight:700;letter-spacing:-.2px;line-height:1}
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.brand-sub{font-size:11px;color:var(--muted);margin-top:2px}
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.tabs{display:flex;gap:4px;background:rgba(255,255,255,.04);padding:4px;border-radius:12px;border:1px solid var(--border)}
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.tab{appearance:none;border:0;background:transparent;color:var(--muted);font-family:inherit;
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font-size:13.5px;font-weight:600;padding:8px 14px;border-radius:9px;cursor:pointer;transition:.18s;white-space:nowrap}
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.tab:hover{color:var(--text)}
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.tab.active{color:#fff;background:linear-gradient(135deg,var(--accent),var(--accent2));box-shadow:0 6px 18px -8px var(--accent)}
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.nav-right{margin-left:auto;display:flex;align-items:center;gap:10px}
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.status{display:flex;align-items:center;gap:7px;font-size:12.5px;color:var(--muted);
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padding:6px 11px;border-radius:9px;background:rgba(255,255,255,.04);border:1px solid var(--border)}
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.dot{width:8px;height:8px;border-radius:50%;background:var(--muted)}
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.dot.live{background:var(--green);animation:pulse 1.6s infinite}
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@keyframes pulse{0%{box-shadow:0 0 0 0 rgba(52,211,153,.5)}70%{box-shadow:0 0 0 7px rgba(52,211,153,0)}100%{box-shadow:0 0 0 0 rgba(52,211,153,0)}}
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.btn{border:1px solid var(--border-strong);border-radius:10px;padding:9px 15px;font-size:13.5px;
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font-weight:600;font-family:inherit;cursor:pointer;background:rgba(255,255,255,.05);color:var(--text);transition:.16s}
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.btn:hover{border-color:var(--accent);transform:translateY(-1px)}
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.btn.primary{background:linear-gradient(135deg,var(--accent),var(--accent2));border-color:transparent;color:#fff;box-shadow:0 8px 22px -10px var(--accent)}
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.btn.primary:hover{filter:brightness(1.08)}
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.btn:disabled{opacity:.55;cursor:wait;transform:none}
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.btn.ghost{background:transparent}
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/* ---------- hero ---------- */
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.hero{position:relative;border:1px solid var(--border);border-radius:22px;padding:34px 32px;margin:14px 0 22px;
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overflow:hidden;background:linear-gradient(120deg,rgba(124,140,255,.16),rgba(168,120,255,.08) 50%,rgba(56,210,230,.10));box-shadow:var(--shadow)}
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.hero-art{position:absolute;right:-10px;top:-10px;bottom:-10px;width:46%;opacity:.85;pointer-events:none}
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.hero h1{margin:0 0 10px;font-size:34px;letter-spacing:-.8px;line-height:1.08;max-width:660px}
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.hero h1 .grad{background:linear-gradient(100deg,#a9b6ff,#d9b4ff 50%,#8fe8f3);-webkit-background-clip:text;background-clip:text;color:transparent}
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.hero p{margin:0;color:#c3cce0;font-size:15.5px;max-width:580px}
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.hero .badges{display:flex;gap:9px;flex-wrap:wrap;margin-top:18px}
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.hbadge{font-size:12px;font-weight:600;color:#dfe6f5;padding:6px 12px;border-radius:999px;background:rgba(255,255,255,.07);border:1px solid var(--border)}
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/* ---------- panels & cards ---------- */
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.tabpanel{display:none;animation:fade .35s ease}
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.tabpanel.active{display:block}
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@keyframes fade{from{opacity:0;transform:translateY(8px)}to{opacity:1;transform:none}}
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.grid2{display:grid;grid-template-columns:1.05fr .95fr;gap:20px}
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@media (max-width:920px){.grid2{grid-template-columns:1fr}}
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.card{background:var(--panel);border:1px solid var(--border);border-radius:18px;padding:20px 22px;
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margin-bottom:20px;backdrop-filter:blur(14px);box-shadow:var(--shadow)}
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.card.hoverable{transition:.2s}
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.card.hoverable:hover{border-color:var(--border-strong);transform:translateY(-2px)}
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.card-h{display:flex;align-items:center;justify-content:space-between;margin:0 0 16px}
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.card-h h3{margin:0;font-size:13px;color:var(--muted);text-transform:uppercase;letter-spacing:1px;font-weight:600}
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.section-title{display:flex;align-items:center;gap:11px;font-size:20px;margin:6px 0 16px;font-weight:700}
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.section-title::before{content:"";width:5px;height:22px;border-radius:3px;background:linear-gradient(var(--accent),var(--accent2))}
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.muted{color:var(--muted)}.small{font-size:12.5px}
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/* ---------- stat cards ---------- */
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.stats{display:grid;grid-template-columns:repeat(auto-fit,minmax(165px,1fr));gap:14px;margin-bottom:20px}
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.stat{position:relative;background:var(--panel);border:1px solid var(--border);border-radius:16px;padding:18px;overflow:hidden;backdrop-filter:blur(14px);transition:.2s}
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.stat:hover{transform:translateY(-2px);border-color:var(--border-strong)}
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.stat::after{content:"";position:absolute;left:0;top:0;height:3px;width:100%;background:linear-gradient(90deg,var(--accent),var(--accent2))}
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.stat .ic{font-size:18px;opacity:.9}
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.stat .label{color:var(--muted);font-size:11.5px;text-transform:uppercase;letter-spacing:.6px;margin-top:8px}
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.stat .value{font-size:25px;font-weight:700;margin-top:4px;font-family:'Space Grotesk',sans-serif;letter-spacing:-.5px}
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.pos-val{color:var(--green)}.neg-val{color:var(--red)}
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/* ---------- charts ---------- */
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#chart,#chart2{width:100%;height:240px;display:block}
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.legend{display:flex;flex-wrap:wrap;gap:8px 16px;margin-top:14px}
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.leg{display:flex;align-items:center;gap:7px;font-size:12.5px;color:#cdd6e8}
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.legdot{width:10px;height:10px;border-radius:3px;display:inline-block}
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/* ---------- leaderboard ---------- */
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.lb-grid{display:grid;grid-template-columns:repeat(auto-fit,minmax(225px,1fr));gap:16px;margin-bottom:20px}
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.lb-card{position:relative;background:var(--panel);border:1px solid var(--border);border-radius:18px;padding:18px;
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backdrop-filter:blur(14px);cursor:pointer;transition:.2s;overflow:hidden}
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.lb-card:hover{transform:translateY(-3px);border-color:var(--border-strong);box-shadow:var(--shadow)}
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.lb-top{display:flex;align-items:center;gap:10px;margin-bottom:14px}
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.medal{font-size:20px;min-width:26px}
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.lb-emoji{font-size:24px}
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.lb-name{font-weight:700;font-size:15px;font-family:'Space Grotesk'}
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.lb-blurb{font-size:11.5px;color:var(--muted);line-height:1.4;margin-top:2px}
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.lb-mid{display:flex;align-items:baseline;justify-content:space-between;margin-bottom:12px}
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.lb-eq{font-size:26px;font-weight:700;font-family:'Space Grotesk';letter-spacing:-.5px}
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.lb-ret{font-size:15px;font-weight:700;font-family:'Space Grotesk'}
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.lb-foot{display:flex;align-items:center;justify-content:space-between;gap:8px}
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.rankpill{position:absolute;top:14px;right:14px;font-size:11px;font-weight:700;padding:3px 9px;border-radius:999px;background:rgba(255,255,255,.07);border:1px solid var(--border);color:var(--muted)}
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/* ---------- segmented agent selector ---------- */
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.seg{display:flex;gap:6px;flex-wrap:wrap;margin-bottom:18px}
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.segbtn{display:flex;align-items:center;gap:7px;font-size:13px;font-weight:600;padding:8px 13px;border-radius:11px;cursor:pointer;
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background:rgba(255,255,255,.05);border:1px solid var(--border);color:var(--muted);transition:.16s;user-select:none}
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.segbtn:hover{color:var(--text);border-color:var(--border-strong)}
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.segbtn.active{color:#fff;border-color:transparent}
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/* ---------- suggestions ---------- */
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.filterbar{display:flex;gap:8px;flex-wrap:wrap;margin-bottom:8px}
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.chip{font-size:13px;font-weight:600;padding:7px 14px;border-radius:999px;cursor:pointer;background:rgba(255,255,255,.05);border:1px solid var(--border);color:var(--muted);transition:.16s;user-select:none}
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.chip:hover{border-color:var(--accent);color:var(--text)}
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.chip.active{background:linear-gradient(135deg,var(--accent),var(--accent2));border-color:transparent;color:#fff}
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.chip .ct{opacity:.75;font-size:11px;margin-left:5px}
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.sug-grid{display:grid;grid-template-columns:1fr 1fr;gap:16px}
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@media (max-width:760px){.sug-grid{grid-template-columns:1fr}}
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.sug{position:relative;background:var(--panel);border:1px solid var(--border);border-radius:16px;padding:18px;border-left:4px solid var(--accent);backdrop-filter:blur(14px);transition:.2s}
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.sug:hover{transform:translateY(-3px);border-color:var(--border-strong);box-shadow:var(--shadow)}
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.sug .q{font-weight:600;font-size:15px;line-height:1.35;margin-top:6px}
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.sug .event{color:var(--muted);font-size:12px;margin:3px 0 12px}
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.sug-row{display:flex;gap:12px;flex-wrap:wrap;align-items:center;margin-bottom:9px}
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.cat-badge{font-size:10px;font-weight:700;text-transform:uppercase;letter-spacing:.5px;padding:3px 9px;border-radius:7px}
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.pill{font-size:12px;font-weight:700;padding:4px 11px;border-radius:999px}
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.pill.YES{background:rgba(52,211,153,.16);color:var(--green)}
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.pill.NO{background:rgba(251,113,133,.16);color:var(--red)}
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.conv-bar{flex:1;min-width:90px;height:7px;background:rgba(255,255,255,.07);border-radius:999px;overflow:hidden}
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.conv-bar>span{display:block;height:100%;background:linear-gradient(90deg,var(--accent),var(--green))}
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.rationale{font-size:13px;color:#cdd6e8;margin:10px 0}
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.drivers{display:flex;gap:6px;flex-wrap:wrap}
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.driver{font-size:11px;background:rgba(255,255,255,.05);border:1px solid var(--border);padding:3px 9px;border-radius:7px;color:var(--muted)}
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.metrics{display:flex;gap:16px;font-size:12px;color:var(--muted);margin-top:12px;flex-wrap:wrap}
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.metrics b{color:var(--text)}
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a.market-link{color:var(--accent);text-decoration:none;font-size:12px;font-weight:600}
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a.market-link:hover{text-decoration:underline}
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/* ---------- positions / log ---------- */
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.pos{display:flex;justify-content:space-between;align-items:center;padding:13px 0;border-bottom:1px solid var(--border)}
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.pos:last-child{border-bottom:none}
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.pos .pq{font-size:13.5px;max-width:62%;font-weight:500}
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.pos .sub{color:var(--muted);font-size:11.5px;margin-top:3px}
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.right{text-align:right}
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.log-item{font-size:12.5px;padding:9px 0;border-bottom:1px solid var(--border);color:#cdd6e8}
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.log-item:last-child{border-bottom:none}
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.badge{font-weight:700;font-size:10px;padding:2px 7px;border-radius:5px;margin-right:7px}
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.badge.OPEN{background:rgba(124,140,255,.2);color:var(--accent)}
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.badge.CLOSE{background:rgba(251,191,36,.2);color:var(--yellow)}
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.log-date{color:var(--muted)}
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.empty{color:var(--muted);font-size:13.5px;padding:14px 0;text-align:center}
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/* ---------- about ---------- */
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.about-grid{display:grid;grid-template-columns:repeat(auto-fit,minmax(230px,1fr));gap:16px;margin-bottom:8px}
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.feature{background:var(--panel);border:1px solid var(--border);border-radius:16px;padding:20px;backdrop-filter:blur(14px)}
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.feature .fic{width:42px;height:42px;border-radius:12px;display:grid;place-items:center;font-size:20px;margin-bottom:12px;background:linear-gradient(135deg,rgba(124,140,255,.25),rgba(168,120,255,.18));border:1px solid var(--border)}
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.feature h4{margin:0 0 7px;font-size:15px}
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.feature p{margin:0;font-size:13px;color:var(--muted);line-height:1.55}
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||
.steps{counter-reset:s;list-style:none;padding:0;margin:0}
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||
.steps li{position:relative;padding:0 0 16px 44px;font-size:14px;color:#cdd6e8}
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||
.steps li::before{counter-increment:s;content:counter(s);position:absolute;left:0;top:-2px;width:30px;height:30px;border-radius:9px;display:grid;place-items:center;font-weight:700;font-size:13px;color:#fff;background:linear-gradient(135deg,var(--accent),var(--accent2))}
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||
.disclaimer{border:1px solid rgba(251,191,36,.3);background:rgba(251,191,36,.07);border-radius:14px;padding:16px 18px;font-size:13px;color:#e6dcc2;margin-top:8px}
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/* ---------- misc ---------- */
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||
.toast{position:fixed;bottom:24px;right:24px;z-index:100;background:rgba(18,24,40,.92);border:1px solid var(--accent);padding:13px 19px;border-radius:13px;font-size:14px;opacity:0;transform:translateY(12px);transition:.28s;pointer-events:none;max-width:360px;backdrop-filter:blur(12px);box-shadow:var(--shadow)}
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||
.toast.show{opacity:1;transform:translateY(0)}
|
||
footer{margin-top:34px;padding-top:22px;border-top:1px solid var(--border);color:var(--muted);font-size:12.5px;text-align:center}
|
||
::-webkit-scrollbar{width:11px;height:11px}
|
||
::-webkit-scrollbar-thumb{background:rgba(255,255,255,.12);border-radius:6px;border:3px solid transparent;background-clip:padding-box}
|
||
::-webkit-scrollbar-thumb:hover{background:rgba(255,255,255,.2);background-clip:padding-box}
|
||
</style>
|
||
</head>
|
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<body>
|
||
|
||
<div class="bg" aria-hidden="true">
|
||
<div class="orb a"></div><div class="orb b"></div><div class="orb c"></div>
|
||
<svg class="chartline" viewBox="0 0 1440 240" preserveAspectRatio="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg">
|
||
<defs><linearGradient id="cl" x1="0" y1="0" x2="0" y2="1">
|
||
<stop offset="0%" stop-color="#7c8cff" stop-opacity="0.28"/><stop offset="100%" stop-color="#7c8cff" stop-opacity="0"/>
|
||
</linearGradient></defs>
|
||
<path d="M0,170 C120,150 180,110 300,120 C420,130 470,70 600,90 C720,108 800,40 940,70 C1080,100 1160,150 1280,120 C1360,100 1410,130 1440,120 L1440,240 L0,240 Z" fill="url(#cl)"/>
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||
<path d="M0,170 C120,150 180,110 300,120 C420,130 470,70 600,90 C720,108 800,40 940,70 C1080,100 1160,150 1280,120 C1360,100 1410,130 1440,120" fill="none" stroke="#7c8cff" stroke-opacity="0.5" stroke-width="2"/>
|
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</svg>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="app">
|
||
<nav class="topnav">
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||
<div class="brand">
|
||
<div class="logo">🏆</div>
|
||
<div><div class="brand-name">Polymarket Arena</div><div class="brand-sub">10 agents · strategies, copycats & whales</div></div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="tabs" id="tabs">
|
||
<button class="tab" data-tab="overview">Overview</button>
|
||
<button class="tab" data-tab="leaderboard">Leaderboard</button>
|
||
<button class="tab" data-tab="suggestions">Suggestions</button>
|
||
<button class="tab" data-tab="portfolio">Portfolios</button>
|
||
<button class="tab" data-tab="about">About</button>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="nav-right">
|
||
<span class="status"><span class="dot" id="statusDot"></span><span id="statusText">idle</span></span>
|
||
<button id="runBtn" class="btn primary">Run cycle</button>
|
||
<button id="resetBtn" class="btn ghost">Reset</button>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</nav>
|
||
|
||
<!-- ============ OVERVIEW ============ -->
|
||
<section class="tabpanel" data-tab="overview">
|
||
<div class="hero">
|
||
<svg class="hero-art" viewBox="0 0 400 300" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" aria-hidden="true">
|
||
<defs><linearGradient id="ha" x1="0" y1="1" x2="1" y2="0"><stop offset="0" stop-color="#7c8cff" stop-opacity=".0"/><stop offset="1" stop-color="#a878ff" stop-opacity=".5"/></linearGradient></defs>
|
||
<g fill="none" stroke-width="2.5">
|
||
<path d="M20,250 L120,160 L200,200 L290,80 L380,40" stroke="#34d399"/>
|
||
<path d="M20,255 L120,210 L200,150 L290,170 L380,120" stroke="#fbbf24" opacity=".8"/>
|
||
<path d="M20,248 L120,230 L200,235 L290,210 L380,200" stroke="#fb7185" opacity=".7"/>
|
||
</g>
|
||
<g fill="#d9b4ff"><circle cx="380" cy="40" r="6"/></g>
|
||
</svg>
|
||
<h1>Ten AI agents race to <span class="grad">beat the market</span></h1>
|
||
<p>Five in-house strategies, a copycat that shadows the leader, and four agents that mirror the live positions of the top traders on Polymarket — all paper-trading for the top of the leaderboard.</p>
|
||
<div class="badges">
|
||
<span class="hbadge">🏆 10 competing agents</span>
|
||
<span class="hbadge">🐋 Copies real Polymarket whales</span>
|
||
<span class="hbadge">🐒 Copycat meta-agent</span>
|
||
<span class="hbadge">🔴 Live data</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="stats" id="stats"></div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="grid2">
|
||
<div class="card hoverable">
|
||
<div class="card-h"><h3>The Equity Race</h3><span class="small muted" id="lastRun"></span></div>
|
||
<svg id="chart" viewBox="0 0 600 240" preserveAspectRatio="none"></svg>
|
||
<div class="legend" id="comboLegend"></div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="card hoverable">
|
||
<div class="card-h"><h3>Top Picks Today</h3><span class="small muted">highest conviction</span></div>
|
||
<div id="topPicks"></div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- ============ LEADERBOARD ============ -->
|
||
<section class="tabpanel" data-tab="leaderboard">
|
||
<div class="section-title">🏆 Leaderboard <span class="small muted" id="lbSub" style="font-weight:400"></span></div>
|
||
<div class="lb-grid" id="leaderboard"></div>
|
||
<div class="card">
|
||
<div class="card-h"><h3>Equity Race — all agents</h3><span class="small muted">$10,000 start each</span></div>
|
||
<svg id="chart2" viewBox="0 0 600 240" preserveAspectRatio="none"></svg>
|
||
<div class="legend" id="comboLegend2"></div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- ============ SUGGESTIONS ============ -->
|
||
<section class="tabpanel" data-tab="suggestions">
|
||
<div class="section-title">💡 Daily Suggestions <span class="small muted" id="sugDate" style="font-weight:400"></span></div>
|
||
<div class="card">
|
||
<div class="filterbar" id="filterbar"></div>
|
||
<div class="small muted" id="focusNote" style="margin-top:6px"></div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="sug-grid" id="suggestions"></div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- ============ PORTFOLIOS ============ -->
|
||
<section class="tabpanel" data-tab="portfolio">
|
||
<div class="section-title">🤖 Agent Portfolios</div>
|
||
<div class="seg" id="agentSel"></div>
|
||
<div class="stats" id="statsPf"></div>
|
||
<div class="grid2">
|
||
<div class="card"><div class="card-h"><h3>Open Positions</h3></div><div id="positions"></div></div>
|
||
<div class="card"><div class="card-h"><h3>Activity Log</h3></div><div id="history"></div></div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- ============ ABOUT ============ -->
|
||
<section class="tabpanel" data-tab="about">
|
||
<div class="section-title">ℹ️ The competition</div>
|
||
<p class="muted" style="margin-top:-6px;max-width:820px">Every agent starts with <b>$10,000</b> in paper money. The five in-house strategies trade the same daily suggestions their own way; the <b>Copycat</b> shadows whichever strategy is winning; and the four <b>Whale Shadow</b> agents mirror the live positions of the highest-profit real traders on Polymarket (auto-discovered from its public leaderboard). All mark to market daily and climb — or sink — the board.</p>
|
||
<div class="about-grid" id="aboutAgents"></div>
|
||
<div class="card" style="margin-top:16px">
|
||
<div class="card-h"><h3>The daily cycle</h3></div>
|
||
<ol class="steps">
|
||
<li><b>Fetch</b> — page through hundreds of live markets and tag each by category.</li>
|
||
<li><b>Score</b> — rank every market 0–100 by conviction and estimate its edge vs. a fair-value model.</li>
|
||
<li><b>Suggest</b> — surface the strongest picks per category with a plain-English rationale.</li>
|
||
<li><b>Compete</b> — all five agents trade the same suggestions their own way, then snapshot equity for the leaderboard.</li>
|
||
</ol>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="disclaimer">⚠️ <b>Paper trading only — not financial advice.</b> Nothing here places real orders or moves money. The analysis is a transparent heuristic. All portfolios live in this browser's local storage (each device keeps its own).</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<footer>
|
||
Paper trading only · Live prices from Polymarket's public Gamma API · Not financial advice ·
|
||
<a class="market-link" href="https://github.com/theodore-song/polymarket-analyst" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Source on GitHub</a>
|
||
</footer>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<script>
|
||
"use strict";
|
||
/* ============================================================
|
||
Polymarket Arena — fully client-side.
|
||
Fetches live markets, scores them, and runs FIVE competing
|
||
paper-trading agents. State persists in localStorage.
|
||
============================================================ */
|
||
|
||
const GAMMA = "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com";
|
||
const STARTING_BALANCE = 10000;
|
||
const AGENTS_KEY = "pma_agents_v2";
|
||
const SUG_KEY = "pma_suggestions_v2";
|
||
const FOCUS_KEY = "pma_focus_v1";
|
||
const VIEW_KEY = "pma_view_v1";
|
||
const CATEGORIES = ["All","Politics","Sports","Crypto","Economy","Pop Culture","Other"];
|
||
const CAT_COLORS = {Politics:"#fb7185",Sports:"#34d399",Crypto:"#fbbf24",Economy:"#7c8cff",
|
||
"Pop Culture":"#c77dff",Other:"#94a1bb",All:"#7c8cff",Copy:"#22d3ee"};
|
||
const DATA_API = "https://data-api.polymarket.com";
|
||
const LB_API = "https://lb-api.polymarket.com";
|
||
const CLOB = "https://clob.polymarket.com";
|
||
const catColor = (c) => CAT_COLORS[c] || CAT_COLORS.Other;
|
||
const getFocus = () => localStorage.getItem(FOCUS_KEY) || "All";
|
||
const setFocus = (c) => localStorage.setItem(FOCUS_KEY, c);
|
||
|
||
/* ---------- the five competing agents ----------
|
||
Each shares the same daily suggestions but ranks/sizes them differently. */
|
||
const AGENTS = [
|
||
{id:"value", name:"Value Hunter", emoji:"🎯", color:"#7c8cff", kind:"strategy",
|
||
blurb:"Backs the biggest model edge — the most mispriced markets.",
|
||
rank:(s)=>[...s].sort((a,b)=>b.conviction-a.conviction),
|
||
maxNew:4, maxFrac:0.10, minConv:45, kelly:0.25},
|
||
{id:"momentum", name:"Momentum Chaser", emoji:"🚀", color:"#34d399", kind:"strategy",
|
||
blurb:"Follows the fresh money — favors 24h volume surges.",
|
||
rank:(s)=>[...s].sort((a,b)=>(b.volume_24hr*(b.conviction+20))-(a.volume_24hr*(a.conviction+20))),
|
||
maxNew:5, maxFrac:0.12, minConv:40, kelly:0.30},
|
||
{id:"favorite", name:"Favorite Backer", emoji:"🛡️", color:"#38d2e6", kind:"strategy",
|
||
blurb:"Low-variance grinder — backs strong favorites likely to hit.",
|
||
rank:(s)=>[...s].filter(x=>x.entry_price>=0.6).sort((a,b)=>b.entry_price-a.entry_price||b.conviction-a.conviction),
|
||
maxNew:4, maxFrac:0.14, minConv:38, kelly:0.40},
|
||
{id:"longshot", name:"Longshot Hunter", emoji:"🎰", color:"#fbbf24", kind:"strategy",
|
||
blurb:"High-variance contrarian — hunts cheap, underpriced longshots.",
|
||
rank:(s)=>[...s].filter(x=>x.entry_price<=0.4).sort((a,b)=>a.entry_price-b.entry_price||b.conviction-a.conviction),
|
||
maxNew:5, maxFrac:0.08, minConv:38, kelly:0.20},
|
||
{id:"diversifier", name:"The Diversifier", emoji:"🌐", color:"#c77dff", kind:"strategy",
|
||
blurb:"Spreads many small equal-weight bets across the whole board.",
|
||
rank:(s)=>[...s].sort((a,b)=>b.conviction-a.conviction),
|
||
maxNew:8, maxFrac:0.05, minConv:35, kelly:0.15, flat:true},
|
||
{id:"copycat", name:"The Copycat", emoji:"🐒", color:"#ec4899", kind:"copycat",
|
||
blurb:"Shadows whichever in-house strategy is currently winning."},
|
||
{id:"whale1", name:"Whale Shadow α", emoji:"🐋", color:"#2dd4bf", kind:"whale", slot:0,
|
||
blurb:"Mirrors the live positions of a top Polymarket trader."},
|
||
{id:"whale2", name:"Whale Shadow β", emoji:"🐳", color:"#fb923c", kind:"whale", slot:1,
|
||
blurb:"Mirrors the live positions of a top Polymarket trader."},
|
||
{id:"whale3", name:"Whale Shadow γ", emoji:"🦈", color:"#a3e635", kind:"whale", slot:2,
|
||
blurb:"Mirrors the live positions of a top Polymarket trader."},
|
||
{id:"whale4", name:"Whale Shadow δ", emoji:"🐡", color:"#60a5fa", kind:"whale", slot:3,
|
||
blurb:"Mirrors the live positions of a top Polymarket trader."},
|
||
];
|
||
const agentById = (id) => AGENTS.find(a=>a.id===id) || AGENTS[0];
|
||
|
||
/* ---------- small utils ---------- */
|
||
const $ = (id) => document.getElementById(id);
|
||
const fmtUSD = (n) => "$" + Number(n).toLocaleString("en-US",{minimumFractionDigits:2,maximumFractionDigits:2});
|
||
const fmtPct = (n) => (n>=0?"+":"") + Number(n).toFixed(2) + "%";
|
||
const signClass = (n) => (n>0?"pos-val":n<0?"neg-val":"");
|
||
const todayStr = () => new Date().toISOString().slice(0,10);
|
||
const nowIso = () => new Date().toISOString();
|
||
function toast(msg){
|
||
let t=document.querySelector(".toast");
|
||
if(!t){t=document.createElement("div");t.className="toast";document.body.appendChild(t);}
|
||
t.textContent=msg;t.classList.add("show");
|
||
clearTimeout(t._h);t._h=setTimeout(()=>t.classList.remove("show"),3600);
|
||
}
|
||
function setStatus(text,live){$("statusText").textContent=text;$("statusDot").classList.toggle("live",!!live);}
|
||
|
||
/* ---------- Polymarket client ---------- */
|
||
function parseJsonField(v){if(v==null)return [];if(Array.isArray(v))return v;try{return JSON.parse(v);}catch(e){return [];}}
|
||
function toNum(v,d=0){const n=Number(v);return Number.isFinite(n)?n:d;}
|
||
function daysUntil(iso){if(!iso)return null;const dt=new Date(iso);if(isNaN(dt))return null;return (dt-new Date())/86400000;}
|
||
const CATEGORY_RULES=[
|
||
["Politics",["politics","election","elections","us-politics","geopolitics","trump","world-leaders","government","congress","policy","biden","2026-election","democrats","republicans"]],
|
||
["Crypto",["crypto","bitcoin","ethereum","btc","eth","solana","memecoins","defi","stablecoin","xrp"]],
|
||
["Sports",["sports","soccer","football","nba","nfl","mlb","nhl","tennis","basketball","baseball","ufc","boxing","cricket","golf","f1","fifa-world-cup","games","tournament-futures","epl"]],
|
||
["Economy",["economy","business","fed","inflation","interest-rates","gdp","jobs","recession","stocks","earnings","financials","tariffs"]],
|
||
["Pop Culture",["pop-culture","entertainment","movies","music","tv","awards","celebrity","gaming","ai"]],
|
||
];
|
||
function classifyCategory(tags){
|
||
const slugs=tags.map(t=>(t.slug||t.label||"").toLowerCase());
|
||
for(const [cat,keys] of CATEGORY_RULES){if(slugs.some(s=>keys.includes(s)))return cat;}
|
||
return "Other";
|
||
}
|
||
function normalizeMarket(raw){
|
||
const outcomes=parseJsonField(raw.outcomes);
|
||
const prices=parseJsonField(raw.outcomePrices).map(p=>toNum(p));
|
||
if(outcomes.length!==2||prices.length!==2)return null;
|
||
if(raw.acceptingOrders===false||raw.closed)return null;
|
||
const yes=prices[0]; if(yes<=0||yes>=1)return null;
|
||
const events=raw.events||[]; const ev=events.length?events[0]:{};
|
||
const tags=Array.isArray(raw.tags)?raw.tags:[];
|
||
return {category:classifyCategory(tags),tags:tags.map(t=>t.label).filter(Boolean).slice(0,4),
|
||
id:String(raw.id),question:(raw.question||"").trim(),event:(ev.title||"").trim(),
|
||
yes_price:+yes.toFixed(4),no_price:+prices[1].toFixed(4),
|
||
volume:toNum(raw.volumeNum||raw.volume),volume_24hr:toNum(raw.volume24hr),volume_1wk:toNum(raw.volume1wk),
|
||
liquidity:toNum(raw.liquidityNum||raw.liquidity),end_date:raw.endDateIso||raw.endDate,
|
||
days_to_resolution:daysUntil(raw.endDate),image:raw.image||"",
|
||
url:ev.slug?`https://polymarket.com/event/${ev.slug}`:""};
|
||
}
|
||
async function fetchMarkets(pages=4,perPage=100){
|
||
const all=[];
|
||
for(let i=0;i<pages;i++){
|
||
const params=new URLSearchParams({closed:"false",active:"true",archived:"false",include_tag:"true",
|
||
limit:String(perPage),offset:String(i*perPage),order:"volume24hr",ascending:"false"});
|
||
const r=await fetch(`${GAMMA}/markets?${params}`);
|
||
if(!r.ok){if(i===0)throw new Error("Polymarket API "+r.status);break;}
|
||
const raw=await r.json(); if(!raw.length)break; all.push(...raw);
|
||
}
|
||
return all.map(normalizeMarket).filter(m=>m&&m.question);
|
||
}
|
||
async function fetchMarketPrice(id){
|
||
try{const r=await fetch(`${GAMMA}/markets/${id}`);if(!r.ok)return null;return normalizeMarket(await r.json());}
|
||
catch(e){return null;}
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
/* ---------- Analysis engine ---------- */
|
||
const W={LIQ:0.25,MOM:0.25,MIS:0.30,TIME:0.20};
|
||
const MIN_VOLUME=20000;
|
||
const clamp=(x,a,b)=>Math.max(a,Math.min(b,x));
|
||
function liquiditySignal(m){const vol=Math.min(1,Math.log10(m.volume+1)/6.0);const liq=Math.min(1,Math.log10(m.liquidity+1)/5.3);return 0.6*vol+0.4*liq;}
|
||
function momentumSignal(m){const da=m.volume_1wk?m.volume_1wk/7:0;if(da<=0)return m.volume_24hr>0?0.3:0;return clamp((m.volume_24hr/da-0.5)/2.0,0,1);}
|
||
function fairValue(m){const p=m.yes_price,mom=momentumSignal(m),liq=liquiditySignal(m);
|
||
if(p>0.92)return Math.min(0.995,p+0.04*liq*(1-p)*4);
|
||
if(p<0.08)return Math.max(0.005,p-0.20*p);
|
||
return clamp(p+(mom-0.5)*0.06,0.02,0.98);}
|
||
function timingSignal(d){if(d==null)return 0.4;if(d<1)return 0.1;if(d<=3)return 0.5;if(d<=90)return 1.0-(d-3)/87.0*0.4;return 0.35;}
|
||
function analyzeMarket(m){
|
||
if(m.volume<MIN_VOLUME)return null;
|
||
const p=m.yes_price,fair=fairValue(m),edgeYes=fair-p,edge=Math.abs(edgeYes);
|
||
const liq=liquiditySignal(m),mom=momentumSignal(m),timing=timingSignal(m.days_to_resolution);
|
||
const mis=Math.min(1,edge/0.10);
|
||
const conviction=+((W.LIQ*liq+W.MOM*mom+W.MIS*mis+W.TIME*timing)*100).toFixed(1);
|
||
let side,entry,rationale;
|
||
if(edgeYes>0.015){side="YES";entry=p;rationale=`Model fair value ${pct(fair)} vs market ${pct(p)} — YES looks underpriced by ~${(edgeYes*100).toFixed(1)}c.`;}
|
||
else if(edgeYes<-0.015){side="NO";entry=m.no_price;rationale=`Model fair value ${pct(fair)} vs market ${pct(p)} — YES looks overpriced, so NO at ${pct(m.no_price)} has the edge.`;}
|
||
else{side="HOLD";entry=p;rationale=`Price ${pct(p)} is close to model fair value ${pct(fair)}; no clear edge — watch only.`;}
|
||
const drivers=[];
|
||
if(liq>0.6)drivers.push("deep/liquid market");
|
||
if(mom>0.6)drivers.push("strong fresh volume (24h surge)");
|
||
if(timing>0.8)drivers.push("resolves in a good window");
|
||
if(mis>0.4)drivers.push("notable price/value gap");
|
||
if(!drivers.length)drivers.push("thin signal");
|
||
return {market_id:m.id,question:m.question,event:m.event,url:m.url,category:m.category,tags:m.tags,
|
||
yes_price:p,no_price:m.no_price,fair_value:+fair.toFixed(4),edge:+edgeYes.toFixed(4),
|
||
side,entry_price:+entry.toFixed(4),conviction,volume:m.volume,volume_24hr:m.volume_24hr,
|
||
days_to_resolution:m.days_to_resolution!=null?+m.days_to_resolution.toFixed(1):null,drivers,rationale};
|
||
}
|
||
const pct=(x)=>Math.round(x*100)+"%";
|
||
function generateSuggestions(markets,perCategory=12){
|
||
const actionable=markets.map(analyzeMarket).filter(Boolean).filter(a=>a.side!=="HOLD").sort((a,b)=>b.conviction-a.conviction);
|
||
const byCat={}; const out=[];
|
||
for(const a of actionable){const c=a.category||"Other";byCat[c]=(byCat[c]||0)+1;if(byCat[c]<=perCategory)out.push(a);}
|
||
return out.sort((a,b)=>b.conviction-a.conviction);
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
/* ---------- Multi-agent store ---------- */
|
||
function defaultPortfolio(){return {cash:STARTING_BALANCE,starting_balance:STARTING_BALANCE,positions:[],closed:[],history:[],snapshots:[]};}
|
||
function defaultState(){const agents={};AGENTS.forEach(a=>agents[a.id]=defaultPortfolio());return {date:null,last_run:null,agents,whales:{},copycatLeader:null};}
|
||
function loadState(){
|
||
let st; try{st=JSON.parse(localStorage.getItem(AGENTS_KEY));}catch(e){st=null;}
|
||
if(!st||!st.agents)st=defaultState();
|
||
AGENTS.forEach(a=>{if(!st.agents[a.id])st.agents[a.id]=defaultPortfolio();});
|
||
if(!st.whales)st.whales={};
|
||
return st;
|
||
}
|
||
function saveState(st){localStorage.setItem(AGENTS_KEY,JSON.stringify(st));}
|
||
function loadSuggestions(){try{const s=localStorage.getItem(SUG_KEY);return s?JSON.parse(s):{date:null,suggestions:[]};}catch(e){return {date:null,suggestions:[]};}}
|
||
function saveSuggestions(sugs){const p={date:todayStr(),generated_at:nowIso(),suggestions:sugs};localStorage.setItem(SUG_KEY,JSON.stringify(p));return p;}
|
||
|
||
/* ---------- Agent mechanics ---------- */
|
||
const equity=(p)=>p.cash+p.positions.reduce((s,x)=>s+x.shares*x.current_price,0);
|
||
const hasPosition=(p,id)=>p.positions.some(x=>x.market_id===id);
|
||
function markToMarket(p,priceMap){
|
||
const stillOpen=[];
|
||
for(const pos of p.positions){
|
||
const fresh=priceMap[pos.market_id];
|
||
if(fresh==null){
|
||
const proceeds=pos.shares*pos.current_price; p.cash+=proceeds;
|
||
pos.exit_price=pos.current_price;pos.closed_at=nowIso();
|
||
pos.realized_pnl=+(proceeds-pos.cost).toFixed(2);
|
||
p.closed.push(pos);
|
||
p.history.push({date:todayStr(),action:"CLOSE",question:pos.question,side:pos.side,
|
||
detail:`Settled '${pos.question.slice(0,40)}' for ${fmtUSD(proceeds)} (P&L ${fmtUSD(pos.realized_pnl)})`});
|
||
continue;
|
||
}
|
||
const price=pos.side==="YES"?fresh.yes_price:fresh.no_price;
|
||
pos.current_price=+price.toFixed(4);pos.value=+(pos.shares*price).toFixed(2);
|
||
pos.unrealized_pnl=+(pos.value-pos.cost).toFixed(2);stillOpen.push(pos);
|
||
}
|
||
p.positions=stillOpen;
|
||
}
|
||
function openPositions(p,cfg,rankedSugs,focus){
|
||
const cands=rankedSugs.filter(s=>(s.side==="YES"||s.side==="NO")&&s.conviction>=cfg.minConv
|
||
&&!hasPosition(p,s.market_id)&&(focus==="All"||!focus||s.category===focus));
|
||
let opened=0;
|
||
for(const s of cands){
|
||
if(opened>=cfg.maxNew)break;
|
||
const eq=equity(p),investable=p.cash-eq*0.05;
|
||
if(investable<=50)break;
|
||
let frac;
|
||
if(cfg.flat){frac=cfg.maxFrac;}
|
||
else{const base=(s.conviction/100)*Math.min(1,Math.abs(s.edge)/0.10);frac=Math.min(cfg.maxFrac,cfg.kelly*base);}
|
||
let stake=Math.min(eq*frac,investable);
|
||
if(stake<50)continue;
|
||
const entry=s.entry_price; if(entry<=0||entry>=1)continue;
|
||
const shares=+(stake/entry).toFixed(2),cost=+(shares*entry).toFixed(2);
|
||
if(cost>p.cash)continue;
|
||
p.cash=+(p.cash-cost).toFixed(2);
|
||
p.positions.push({market_id:s.market_id,question:s.question,side:s.side,shares,
|
||
entry_price:+entry.toFixed(4),current_price:+entry.toFixed(4),cost,value:cost,
|
||
unrealized_pnl:0,conviction:s.conviction,category:s.category,opened_at:nowIso(),url:s.url||""});
|
||
p.history.push({date:todayStr(),action:"OPEN",question:s.question,side:s.side,
|
||
detail:`Bought ${shares} ${s.side} '${s.question.slice(0,40)}' @ ${pct(entry)} for ${fmtUSD(cost)}`});
|
||
opened++;
|
||
}
|
||
}
|
||
function recordSnapshot(p){
|
||
const eq=equity(p);
|
||
const snap={date:todayStr(),timestamp:nowIso(),cash:+p.cash.toFixed(2),
|
||
equity:+eq.toFixed(2),pnl:+(eq-p.starting_balance).toFixed(2),
|
||
return_pct:+((eq/p.starting_balance-1)*100).toFixed(2),open_positions:p.positions.length};
|
||
p.snapshots=p.snapshots.filter(s=>s.date!==snap.date);
|
||
p.snapshots.push(snap);p.snapshots.sort((a,b)=>a.date<b.date?-1:1);
|
||
}
|
||
/* ---------- Copy-trading: Polymarket leaders ---------- */
|
||
const hasAsset=(p,a)=>p.positions.some(x=>x.asset===a);
|
||
async function fetchTokenPrice(asset){
|
||
try{const r=await fetch(`${CLOB}/midpoint?token_id=${asset}`);
|
||
if(r.ok){const d=await r.json();const m=parseFloat(d.mid);if(m>0&&m<1)return m;}}catch(e){}
|
||
return null;
|
||
}
|
||
async function fetchTraderPositions(wallet){
|
||
try{const r=await fetch(`${DATA_API}/positions?user=${wallet}&sizeThreshold=1&limit=80`);
|
||
if(!r.ok)return [];
|
||
const d=await r.json();
|
||
return d.filter(p=>(p.outcome==="Yes"||p.outcome==="No")&&p.curPrice>0.02&&p.curPrice<0.98&&!p.redeemable&&p.size*p.curPrice>=1)
|
||
.map(p=>({asset:String(p.asset),conditionId:p.conditionId,outcome:p.outcome,side:String(p.outcome).toUpperCase(),
|
||
curPrice:+p.curPrice,title:p.title||"market",value:p.size*p.curPrice}));
|
||
}catch(e){return [];}
|
||
}
|
||
function prettyName(n,w){
|
||
if(n&&!/^0x/i.test(n))return n; // real display name / pseudonym
|
||
return "0x"+String(w).slice(2,6)+"…"+String(w).slice(-4); // anonymous → short wallet
|
||
}
|
||
async function discoverWhales(){
|
||
const picked=[];
|
||
try{
|
||
const r=await fetch(`${LB_API}/profit?window=all&limit=40`);
|
||
const leaders=r.ok?await r.json():[];
|
||
for(const L of leaders){
|
||
if(picked.length>=4)break;
|
||
const tps=await fetchTraderPositions(L.proxyWallet);
|
||
if(tps.length>=1)picked.push({wallet:L.proxyWallet,
|
||
name:prettyName(L.name||L.pseudonym,L.proxyWallet),profit:Math.round(L.amount||0)});
|
||
}
|
||
}catch(e){}
|
||
return picked;
|
||
}
|
||
async function runWhaleAgent(p,wallet){
|
||
// mark existing copied positions to market via CLOB token price
|
||
for(const pos of p.positions){
|
||
const pr=await fetchTokenPrice(pos.asset);
|
||
if(pr!=null){pos.current_price=+pr.toFixed(4);pos.value=+(pos.shares*pr).toFixed(2);pos.unrealized_pnl=+(pos.value-pos.cost).toFixed(2);}
|
||
}
|
||
const tps=await fetchTraderPositions(wallet);
|
||
const held=new Set(tps.map(t=>t.asset));
|
||
const keep=[];
|
||
for(const pos of p.positions){
|
||
if(!held.has(pos.asset)){
|
||
const proceeds=pos.shares*pos.current_price;p.cash+=proceeds;
|
||
pos.exit_price=pos.current_price;pos.realized_pnl=+(proceeds-pos.cost).toFixed(2);p.closed.push(pos);
|
||
p.history.push({date:todayStr(),action:"CLOSE",question:pos.question,side:pos.side,
|
||
detail:`Trader exited '${pos.question.slice(0,36)}' — settled ${fmtUSD(proceeds)} (P&L ${fmtUSD(pos.realized_pnl)})`});
|
||
}else keep.push(pos);
|
||
}
|
||
p.positions=keep;
|
||
const targets=[...tps].sort((a,b)=>b.value-a.value).slice(0,12); // copy their biggest 12 bets
|
||
const book=targets.reduce((s,t)=>s+t.value,0)||1;
|
||
for(const t of targets){
|
||
if(hasAsset(p,t.asset))continue;
|
||
const eq=equity(p),investable=p.cash-eq*0.05; if(investable<=50)break;
|
||
const weight=t.value/book;
|
||
const stake=Math.min(eq*Math.min(0.34,weight),investable);
|
||
if(stake<40)continue;
|
||
const entry=t.curPrice; const shares=+(stake/entry).toFixed(2),cost=+(shares*entry).toFixed(2);
|
||
if(cost>p.cash)continue;
|
||
p.cash=+(p.cash-cost).toFixed(2);
|
||
p.positions.push({asset:t.asset,market_id:t.conditionId,question:t.title,side:t.side,category:"Copy",
|
||
shares,entry_price:+entry.toFixed(4),current_price:+entry.toFixed(4),cost,value:cost,unrealized_pnl:0,conviction:null});
|
||
p.history.push({date:todayStr(),action:"OPEN",question:t.title,side:t.side,
|
||
detail:`Copied trade — ${shares} ${t.side} '${t.title.slice(0,36)}' @ ${pct(entry)} for ${fmtUSD(cost)}`});
|
||
}
|
||
recordSnapshot(p);
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
/* ---------- Copycat: shadow the leading in-house strategy ---------- */
|
||
function runCopycat(p,leader,priceMap){
|
||
markToMarket(p,priceMap);
|
||
const held=new Set(leader.positions.map(x=>x.market_id));
|
||
const keep=[];
|
||
for(const pos of p.positions){
|
||
if(!held.has(pos.market_id)){
|
||
const proceeds=pos.shares*pos.current_price;p.cash+=proceeds;
|
||
pos.exit_price=pos.current_price;pos.realized_pnl=+(proceeds-pos.cost).toFixed(2);p.closed.push(pos);
|
||
p.history.push({date:todayStr(),action:"CLOSE",question:pos.question,side:pos.side,
|
||
detail:`Leader exited '${pos.question.slice(0,36)}' — settled ${fmtUSD(proceeds)}`});
|
||
}else keep.push(pos);
|
||
}
|
||
p.positions=keep;
|
||
const book=leader.positions.reduce((s,x)=>s+(x.value||x.cost),0)||1;
|
||
for(const lp of [...leader.positions].sort((a,b)=>(b.value||b.cost)-(a.value||a.cost))){
|
||
if(hasPosition(p,lp.market_id))continue;
|
||
const eq=equity(p),investable=p.cash-eq*0.05; if(investable<=50)break;
|
||
const weight=(lp.value||lp.cost)/book;
|
||
const stake=Math.min(eq*Math.min(0.2,weight),investable);
|
||
if(stake<50)continue;
|
||
const entry=lp.current_price; if(entry<=0||entry>=1)continue;
|
||
const shares=+(stake/entry).toFixed(2),cost=+(shares*entry).toFixed(2);
|
||
if(cost>p.cash)continue;
|
||
p.cash=+(p.cash-cost).toFixed(2);
|
||
p.positions.push({market_id:lp.market_id,question:lp.question,side:lp.side,category:lp.category,
|
||
shares,entry_price:+entry.toFixed(4),current_price:+entry.toFixed(4),cost,value:cost,unrealized_pnl:0,conviction:lp.conviction});
|
||
p.history.push({date:todayStr(),action:"OPEN",question:lp.question,side:lp.side,
|
||
detail:`Copied leader — ${shares} ${lp.side} '${lp.question.slice(0,36)}' @ ${pct(entry)}`});
|
||
}
|
||
recordSnapshot(p);
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
async function runDailyCycle(){
|
||
setStatus("fetching markets…",true);
|
||
const markets=await fetchMarkets(4,100);
|
||
setStatus("analyzing…",true);
|
||
const sugs=generateSuggestions(markets,12);
|
||
saveSuggestions(sugs);
|
||
const st=loadState();
|
||
const focus=getFocus();
|
||
// Price map for suggestion-market positions (strategy + copycat only).
|
||
const ids=new Set();
|
||
AGENTS.filter(a=>a.kind==="strategy"||a.kind==="copycat").forEach(a=>
|
||
(st.agents[a.id].positions||[]).forEach(pos=>{if(pos.market_id)ids.add(pos.market_id);}));
|
||
setStatus("marking positions…",true);
|
||
const priceMap={};
|
||
for(const id of ids){priceMap[id]=await fetchMarketPrice(id);}
|
||
// 1) in-house strategy agents
|
||
setStatus("strategy agents trading…",true);
|
||
for(const cfg of AGENTS.filter(a=>a.kind==="strategy")){
|
||
const p=st.agents[cfg.id];
|
||
markToMarket(p,priceMap);
|
||
openPositions(p,cfg,cfg.rank(sugs),focus);
|
||
recordSnapshot(p);
|
||
}
|
||
// 2) copycat shadows the leading strategy agent
|
||
const stratBoard=AGENTS.filter(a=>a.kind==="strategy")
|
||
.map(a=>({id:a.id,eq:equity(st.agents[a.id])})).sort((x,y)=>y.eq-x.eq);
|
||
st.copycatLeader=stratBoard[0].id;
|
||
runCopycat(st.agents["copycat"],st.agents[st.copycatLeader],priceMap);
|
||
// 3) whale-copy agents mirror top Polymarket traders
|
||
if(AGENTS.some(a=>a.kind==="whale"&&!st.whales[a.id])){
|
||
setStatus("finding top Polymarket traders…",true);
|
||
const picked=await discoverWhales();
|
||
AGENTS.filter(a=>a.kind==="whale").forEach(a=>{if(!st.whales[a.id]&&picked[a.slot])st.whales[a.id]=picked[a.slot];});
|
||
}
|
||
for(const a of AGENTS.filter(x=>x.kind==="whale")){
|
||
const wh=st.whales[a.id];
|
||
if(!wh){recordSnapshot(st.agents[a.id]);continue;}
|
||
setStatus(`copying ${wh.name}…`,true);
|
||
try{await runWhaleAgent(st.agents[a.id],wh.wallet);}
|
||
catch(e){recordSnapshot(st.agents[a.id]);}
|
||
}
|
||
st.date=todayStr();st.last_run=nowIso();
|
||
saveState(st);
|
||
setStatus("up to date",false);
|
||
return {suggestions:sugs.length};
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
/* ---------- Leaderboard helpers ---------- */
|
||
function board(){
|
||
const st=loadState();
|
||
return AGENTS.map(c=>{const p=st.agents[c.id]||defaultPortfolio();const eq=equity(p);
|
||
return {c,p,eq,pnl:eq-STARTING_BALANCE,ret:(eq/STARTING_BALANCE-1)*100};})
|
||
.sort((a,b)=>b.eq-a.eq);
|
||
}
|
||
const MEDALS=["🥇","🥈","🥉"];
|
||
|
||
/* ---------- Rendering ---------- */
|
||
function renderAll(){renderOverview();renderLeaderboard();renderSuggestions();renderPortfolioTab();renderAbout();}
|
||
|
||
function renderOverview(){
|
||
const b=board(); const lead=b[0];
|
||
const avgRet=b.reduce((s,r)=>s+r.ret,0)/b.length;
|
||
const sugCount=(loadSuggestions().suggestions||[]).length;
|
||
const stats=[
|
||
{ic:lead.c.emoji,label:"Leader",value:lead.c.name.split(" ")[0]},
|
||
{ic:"📈",label:"Leader return",value:fmtPct(lead.ret),cls:signClass(lead.pnl)},
|
||
{ic:"⚖️",label:"Avg return",value:fmtPct(avgRet),cls:signClass(avgRet)},
|
||
{ic:"💡",label:"Ideas today",value:sugCount},
|
||
{ic:"🏆",label:"Agents",value:AGENTS.length},
|
||
];
|
||
$("stats").innerHTML=stats.map(s=>`<div class="stat"><div class="ic">${s.ic}</div><div class="label">${s.label}</div><div class="value ${s.cls||""}">${s.value}</div></div>`).join("");
|
||
const st=loadState();
|
||
if(st.last_run)$("lastRun").textContent="updated "+new Date(st.last_run).toLocaleString();
|
||
drawCombo("chart","comboLegend");
|
||
renderTopPicks();
|
||
}
|
||
function renderTopPicks(){
|
||
const root=$("topPicks"); if(!root)return;
|
||
const top=((loadSuggestions().suggestions)||[]).slice(0,5);
|
||
if(!top.length){root.innerHTML=`<div class="empty">Run a cycle to see top picks.</div>`;return;}
|
||
root.innerHTML=top.map(s=>`<div class="pos"><div>
|
||
<div class="pq">${esc(s.question.slice(0,58))}${s.question.length>58?"…":""}</div>
|
||
<div class="sub"><span class="cat-badge" style="background:${catColor(s.category)}22;color:${catColor(s.category)}">${esc(s.category)}</span> BUY ${s.side} @ ${Math.round(s.entry_price*100)}¢</div>
|
||
</div><div class="right"><div style="font-family:'Space Grotesk';font-weight:700">${Math.round(s.conviction)}</div><div class="sub">conviction</div></div></div>`).join("");
|
||
}
|
||
function miniSpark(snaps,color){
|
||
if(!snaps||snaps.length<2)return `<svg width="120" height="34"></svg>`;
|
||
const pts=snaps.map(s=>s.equity),W=120,H=34,p=3;
|
||
const mn=Math.min(...pts),mx=Math.max(...pts),sp=(mx-mn)||1;
|
||
const x=i=>p+(i/(pts.length-1))*(W-2*p),y=v=>H-p-((v-mn)/sp)*(H-2*p);
|
||
const d=pts.map((v,i)=>`${i?"L":"M"}${x(i).toFixed(1)},${y(v).toFixed(1)}`).join(" ");
|
||
return `<svg width="${W}" height="${H}"><path d="${d}" fill="none" stroke="${color}" stroke-width="2"/></svg>`;
|
||
}
|
||
function agentBlurb(cfg,st){
|
||
if(cfg.kind==="whale"){const w=st.whales[cfg.id];return w?`🐋 Mirrors <b>${esc(w.name)}</b>${w.profit?` · $${(w.profit/1e6).toFixed(1)}M profit`:""}`:"Mirrors a top Polymarket trader (found on first run).";}
|
||
if(cfg.kind==="copycat"){const L=AGENTS.find(a=>a.id===st.copycatLeader);return `🐒 Copying <b>${L?esc(L.name):"the leader"}</b>`;}
|
||
return cfg.blurb;
|
||
}
|
||
function renderLeaderboard(){
|
||
const b=board(); const st=loadState();
|
||
$("lbSub").textContent="· "+b[0].c.name+" leads";
|
||
$("leaderboard").innerHTML=b.map((r,i)=>`
|
||
<div class="lb-card" data-agent="${r.c.id}" style="border-top:3px solid ${r.c.color}">
|
||
<span class="rankpill">#${i+1}</span>
|
||
<div class="lb-top"><span class="medal">${MEDALS[i]||""}</span><span class="lb-emoji">${r.c.emoji}</span>
|
||
<div><div class="lb-name">${r.c.name}</div><div class="lb-blurb">${agentBlurb(r.c,st)}</div></div></div>
|
||
<div class="lb-mid"><div class="lb-eq">${fmtUSD(r.eq)}</div><div class="lb-ret ${signClass(r.pnl)}">${fmtPct(r.ret)}</div></div>
|
||
<div class="lb-foot"><span class="muted small">${r.p.positions.length} open · ${r.p.closed.length} closed</span>${miniSpark(r.p.snapshots,r.c.color)}</div>
|
||
</div>`).join("");
|
||
document.querySelectorAll("#leaderboard .lb-card").forEach(el=>{
|
||
el.addEventListener("click",()=>{localStorage.setItem(VIEW_KEY,el.dataset.agent);renderPortfolioTab();showTab("portfolio");});
|
||
});
|
||
drawCombo("chart2","comboLegend2");
|
||
}
|
||
function drawCombo(svgId,legendId){
|
||
const st=loadState();
|
||
const series=AGENTS.map(c=>({c,snaps:(st.agents[c.id]&&st.agents[c.id].snapshots)||[]}));
|
||
const allDates=[...new Set(series.flatMap(s=>s.snaps.map(x=>x.date)))].sort();
|
||
const svg=$(svgId); if(!svg)return;
|
||
if(!allDates.length){svg.innerHTML="";if($(legendId))$(legendId).innerHTML=`<span class="muted small">No history yet — click "Run cycle".</span>`;return;}
|
||
const W=600,H=240,pad=10; const vals=[STARTING_BALANCE];
|
||
const lines=series.map(s=>{let last=STARTING_BALANCE;const pts=allDates.map(d=>{const snap=s.snaps.find(x=>x.date===d);if(snap)last=snap.equity;vals.push(last);return last;});return {c:s.c,pts};});
|
||
const min=Math.min(...vals)*0.999,max=Math.max(...vals)*1.001,span=(max-min)||1;
|
||
const x=i=>allDates.length===1?W/2:pad+(i/(allDates.length-1))*(W-2*pad);
|
||
const y=v=>H-pad-((v-min)/span)*(H-2*pad);
|
||
let inner="";
|
||
for(const ln of lines){
|
||
const d=ln.pts.map((v,i)=>`${i===0?"M":"L"}${x(i).toFixed(1)},${y(v).toFixed(1)}`).join(" ");
|
||
const dot=allDates.length===1?`<circle cx="${x(0).toFixed(1)}" cy="${y(ln.pts[0]).toFixed(1)}" r="4" fill="${ln.c.color}"/>`:"";
|
||
inner+=`<path d="${d}" fill="none" stroke="${ln.c.color}" stroke-width="2.4" opacity=".95"/>${dot}`;
|
||
}
|
||
svg.innerHTML=inner;
|
||
if($(legendId)){
|
||
$(legendId).innerHTML=board().map(r=>`<span class="leg"><span class="legdot" style="background:${r.c.color}"></span>${r.c.emoji} ${r.c.name} <b class="${signClass(r.pnl)}">${fmtPct(r.ret)}</b></span>`).join("");
|
||
}
|
||
}
|
||
function renderFilterBar(all){
|
||
const focus=getFocus();
|
||
const counts={};CATEGORIES.forEach(c=>counts[c]=0);
|
||
all.forEach(s=>{const c=counts[s.category]!==undefined?s.category:"Other";counts[c]++;});
|
||
counts["All"]=all.length;
|
||
$("filterbar").innerHTML=CATEGORIES.map(c=>{const n=counts[c]||0;const dim=(c!=="All"&&n===0)?"opacity:.4;":"";
|
||
return `<span class="chip ${c===focus?"active":""}" data-cat="${c}" style="${dim}">${c}<span class="ct">${n}</span></span>`;}).join("");
|
||
document.querySelectorAll("#filterbar .chip").forEach(el=>el.addEventListener("click",()=>{setFocus(el.dataset.cat);renderSuggestions();}));
|
||
}
|
||
function renderSuggestions(){
|
||
const data=loadSuggestions();
|
||
$("sugDate").textContent=data.date?`· ${data.date}`:"";
|
||
const all=data.suggestions||[];const root=$("suggestions");
|
||
renderFilterBar(all);
|
||
if(!all.length){root.innerHTML=`<div class="empty" style="grid-column:1/-1">No suggestions yet. Click "Run cycle".</div>`;$("focusNote").textContent="";return;}
|
||
const focus=getFocus();
|
||
const filtered=(focus==="All"?all:all.filter(s=>s.category===focus)).slice(0,12);
|
||
$("focusNote").textContent=focus==="All"
|
||
? "All five agents trade from this pool — each in its own style."
|
||
: `Filtered to ${focus} — agents will only open new ${focus} positions while this is selected.`;
|
||
if(!filtered.length){root.innerHTML=`<div class="empty" style="grid-column:1/-1">No ${esc(focus)} suggestions in today's batch.</div>`;return;}
|
||
root.innerHTML=filtered.map(s=>{
|
||
const col=catColor(s.category);
|
||
const drivers=s.drivers.map(d=>`<span class="driver">${d}</span>`).join("");
|
||
const days=s.days_to_resolution!=null?`${s.days_to_resolution}d`:"—";
|
||
return `<div class="sug" style="border-left-color:${col}">
|
||
<div class="sug-row" style="margin-bottom:2px"><span class="cat-badge" style="background:${col}22;color:${col}">${esc(s.category||"Other")}</span></div>
|
||
<div class="q">${esc(s.question)}</div>
|
||
<div class="event">${esc(s.event||"")}</div>
|
||
<div class="sug-row">
|
||
<span class="pill ${s.side}">BUY ${s.side}</span>
|
||
<span class="muted small">@ ${Math.round(s.entry_price*100)}¢</span>
|
||
<div class="conv-bar"><span style="width:${s.conviction}%"></span></div>
|
||
<span class="muted small">${Math.round(s.conviction)}</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="rationale">${esc(s.rationale)}</div>
|
||
<div class="drivers">${drivers}</div>
|
||
<div class="metrics">
|
||
<span>Vol <b>${fmtUSD(s.volume)}</b></span><span>24h <b>${fmtUSD(s.volume_24hr)}</b></span><span>Resolves <b>${days}</b></span>
|
||
${s.url?`<a class="market-link" href="${s.url}" target="_blank" rel="noopener">View ↗</a>`:""}
|
||
</div></div>`;
|
||
}).join("");
|
||
}
|
||
function renderPortfolioTab(){
|
||
const st=loadState();
|
||
let viewId=localStorage.getItem(VIEW_KEY); if(!AGENTS.some(a=>a.id===viewId))viewId="value";
|
||
$("agentSel").innerHTML=AGENTS.map(a=>{
|
||
const active=a.id===viewId;
|
||
const style=active?`background:linear-gradient(135deg,${a.color},${a.color});border-color:transparent`:"";
|
||
return `<span class="segbtn ${active?"active":""}" data-agent="${a.id}" style="${style}">${a.emoji} ${a.name}</span>`;}).join("");
|
||
document.querySelectorAll("#agentSel .segbtn").forEach(el=>el.addEventListener("click",()=>{localStorage.setItem(VIEW_KEY,el.dataset.agent);renderPortfolioTab();}));
|
||
const p=st.agents[viewId]||defaultPortfolio();const eq=equity(p),pnl=eq-p.starting_balance;
|
||
const stats=[
|
||
{ic:"💰",label:"Equity",value:fmtUSD(eq)},
|
||
{ic:"💵",label:"Cash",value:fmtUSD(p.cash)},
|
||
{ic:"📈",label:"P&L",value:fmtUSD(pnl),cls:signClass(pnl)},
|
||
{ic:"🎯",label:"Return",value:fmtPct((eq/p.starting_balance-1)*100),cls:signClass(pnl)},
|
||
{ic:"📂",label:"Open",value:p.positions.length},
|
||
];
|
||
$("statsPf").innerHTML=stats.map(s=>`<div class="stat"><div class="ic">${s.ic}</div><div class="label">${s.label}</div><div class="value ${s.cls||""}">${s.value}</div></div>`).join("");
|
||
renderPositions(p.positions);
|
||
renderHistory((p.history||[]).slice(-50).reverse());
|
||
}
|
||
function renderPositions(positions){
|
||
const root=$("positions");if(!root)return;
|
||
if(!positions.length){root.innerHTML=`<div class="empty">No open positions.</div>`;return;}
|
||
root.innerHTML=positions.map(p=>{const pnl=p.unrealized_pnl||0,col=catColor(p.category);
|
||
return `<div class="pos"><div>
|
||
<div class="pq">${esc(p.question)}</div>
|
||
<div class="sub">${p.category?`<span class="cat-badge" style="background:${col}22;color:${col}">${esc(p.category)}</span> `:""}${p.shares} ${p.side} @ ${Math.round(p.entry_price*100)}¢ → ${Math.round(p.current_price*100)}¢</div>
|
||
</div><div class="right"><div>${fmtUSD(p.value)}</div><div class="${signClass(pnl)}">${pnl>=0?"+":""}${fmtUSD(pnl)}</div></div></div>`;}).join("");
|
||
}
|
||
function renderHistory(history){
|
||
const root=$("history");if(!root)return;
|
||
if(!history.length){root.innerHTML=`<div class="empty">No activity yet.</div>`;return;}
|
||
root.innerHTML=history.map(h=>`<div class="log-item"><span class="badge ${h.action}">${h.action}</span><span class="log-date">${h.date}</span> — ${esc(h.detail)}</div>`).join("");
|
||
}
|
||
function renderAbout(){
|
||
const root=$("aboutAgents");if(!root)return;
|
||
const st=loadState();
|
||
root.innerHTML=AGENTS.map(a=>`<div class="feature" style="border-top:3px solid ${a.color}">
|
||
<div class="fic">${a.emoji}</div><h4>${a.name}</h4><p>${agentBlurb(a,st)}</p></div>`).join("");
|
||
}
|
||
function esc(s){return String(s).replace(/[&<>"]/g,c=>({"&":"&","<":"<",">":">",'"':"""}[c]));}
|
||
|
||
/* ---------- Tab routing ---------- */
|
||
const TABS=["overview","leaderboard","suggestions","portfolio","about"];
|
||
function showTab(name){
|
||
if(!TABS.includes(name))name="overview";
|
||
document.querySelectorAll(".tabpanel").forEach(p=>p.classList.toggle("active",p.dataset.tab===name));
|
||
document.querySelectorAll(".tab").forEach(t=>t.classList.toggle("active",t.dataset.tab===name));
|
||
if(location.hash.slice(1)!==name)history.replaceState(null,"","#"+name);
|
||
window.scrollTo({top:0,behavior:"smooth"});
|
||
}
|
||
document.querySelectorAll(".tab").forEach(t=>t.addEventListener("click",()=>showTab(t.dataset.tab)));
|
||
window.addEventListener("hashchange",()=>showTab(location.hash.slice(1)));
|
||
|
||
/* ---------- Wire up ---------- */
|
||
$("runBtn").addEventListener("click",async()=>{
|
||
const btn=$("runBtn");btn.disabled=true;btn.textContent="Running…";
|
||
try{const r=await runDailyCycle();const b=board();toast(`Cycle done · ${r.suggestions} ideas · ${b[0].c.emoji} ${b[0].c.name} leads`);renderAll();}
|
||
catch(e){toast("Run failed: "+e.message);setStatus("error",false);}
|
||
btn.disabled=false;btn.textContent="Run cycle";
|
||
});
|
||
$("resetBtn").addEventListener("click",()=>{
|
||
if(!confirm("Reset all five agents to their $10,000 starting balance?"))return;
|
||
saveState(defaultState());localStorage.removeItem(SUG_KEY);toast("All agents reset.");renderAll();
|
||
});
|
||
|
||
/* On load: route, render, auto-run once per day. */
|
||
(async function init(){
|
||
showTab(location.hash.slice(1)||"overview");
|
||
renderAll();
|
||
const sug=loadSuggestions();
|
||
if(sug.date!==todayStr()){
|
||
const btn=$("runBtn");btn.disabled=true;btn.textContent="Running…";
|
||
try{await runDailyCycle();renderAll();toast("Fresh daily competition ready.");}
|
||
catch(e){setStatus("error — click Run to retry",false);}
|
||
btn.disabled=false;btn.textContent="Run cycle";
|
||
}else{setStatus("up to date",false);}
|
||
})();
|
||
</script>
|
||
</body>
|
||
</html>
|