polymarket-5min-15min-1hour-arbitrage-trading-bot/btc-binary-VWAP-Momentum-bot/docs

BTC 15-Minute Polymarket Bot — Full Beginner Guide

Suite: PolyBullLabs — polymakret-5min-15min-1hour-arbitrage-bot · Telegram: @terauss · Parent overview: ../README.md

This document walks you from zero to running, explains the trading strategy with numbers, and lists every important parameter with examples.
Shorter references: CONFIG.md (parameter list), PROJECT_LOGIC.md (implementation detail).

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Table of contents

1. What you are trading
2. Trading strategy (logic + formulas)
3. Prerequisites checklist
4. Environment setup — Windows
5. Environment setup — Linux / macOS
6. Get the project and install dependencies
7. Configure .env (secrets)
8. Configure config.json (strategy and execution)
9. Run the bot
10. Optional: Telegram
11. Optional: P&L chart
12. Logs and files
13. Troubleshooting
14. Risk summary

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1. What you are trading

1.1 The market

Polymarket lists 15-minute BTC markets (slug pattern like btc-updown-15m-<timestamp>). Each market has two outcome tokens:

Token	Pays if
UP	BTC finishes the window above the reference (market rules on Polymarket define the exact oracle)
DOWN	BTC finishes below

In practice the bot reads live token prices from Polymarket (not a manual prediction). It buys the favorite — whichever side has the higher last traded price.

1.2 Payout math (simplified)

If you buy N contracts at price P (in dollars per contract, 0–1):

• Cost ≈ N × P
• If your side wins, each contract is worth $1 → payout N × $1
• Profit before fees ≈ N × (1 − P) on a win; on a loss you lose the cost.

Example (numbers only):

• Buy 6 UP @ $0.82 → cost 6 × 0.82 = $4.92
• If UP wins → value 6 × $1 = $6.00 → gross profit $6.00 − $4.92 = $1.08

The bot does not guarantee profit; it automates entries when its rules are satisfied.

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2. Trading strategy (logic + formulas)

2.1 Favorite

The bot compares UP and DOWN last_price (from the market WebSocket). The favorite is the side with the higher price. All deviation and momentum calculations below use the favorite’s trade history and price.

2.2 VWAP (volume-weighted average price)

Over the last vwap_window_sec seconds (e.g. 30), take all trades on that token, then:

[ \text{VWAP} = \frac{\sum (\text{price} \times \text{size})}{\sum \text{size}} ]

Example

Time	Price	Size
T1	0.78	10
T2	0.79	5

[ \text{VWAP} = \frac{0.78 \times 10 + 0.79 \times 5}{10 + 5} = \frac{11.75}{15} \approx 0.7833 ]

2.3 Deviation (%)

Compare last traded price to VWAP:

[ \text{Deviation (%)} = \frac{\text{last_price} - \text{VWAP}}{\text{VWAP}} \times 100 ]

Example

• Last price 0.82, VWAP 0.78
• Deviation = ((0.82 - 0.78) / 0.78 × 100 ≈ 5.13%)

The bot requires deviation strictly greater than min_deviation_pct and strictly less than max_deviation_pct (see §8.1).

2.4 Momentum (%)

Momentum uses a lookback of momentum_window_sec (e.g. 60). The code takes trades whose timestamps fall in a small band around “now − 60s”, averages their prices, then compares current last price to that average:

[ \text{Momentum (%)} = \frac{\text{last_price} - \text{avg_price_ago}}{\text{avg_price_ago}} \times 100 ]

If there are no trades in that window, momentum is missing (None) and the signal cannot fire.

Important: In code, momentum must be > 5% (not configurable in config.json today). So momentum_window_sec changes how momentum is measured, not the 5% threshold.

Example

• Average price ~60s ago: 0.77
• Current last price: 0.82
• Momentum = ((0.82 - 0.77) / 0.77 × 100 ≈ 6.5%) → passes the > 5% rule

2.5 Time window for entries (15 minutes = 900 seconds)

Each market lasts 900 seconds from start to end.

• min_elapsed_sec — do not enter until at least this many seconds after the market started.
  Elapsed = 900 − time_left (seconds).

• no_entry_before_end_sec — do not enter if time_left ≤ this value (too close to expiry).

Worked example (matches CONFIG.md):

• min_elapsed_sec = 530 → need elapsed ≥ 530
• no_entry_before_end_sec = 335 → need time_left > 335 → elapsed < 565

So entries are only possible when 530 ≤ elapsed < 565 → about 35 seconds per market (if all other filters pass).

Variable	Value
min_elapsed_sec	530
no_entry_before_end_sec	335
Allowed elapsed	530 … 564
Allowed time_left	336 … 370

If you widen the window (e.g. lower min_elapsed_sec or raise no_entry_before_end_sec), you get more opportunities and usually more risk.

2.6 Win rate table (data/win_rate.csv)

Rows are price bands (e.g. 0.75-0.79), columns are minutes (min_0 … min_14). The dashboard uses this to display a historical win rate for the current favorite price and time bin. It does not by itself block a trade in the main signal logic (the hard filters are price, time, deviation, momentum).

2.7 Entry checklist (all must pass)

#	Rule	Typical config
1	Favorite price in [min_price, max_price]	e.g. 0.75–0.88
2	elapsed_sec ≥ min_elapsed_sec	e.g. ≥ 530
3	min_deviation_pct < deviation < max_deviation_pct	e.g. 3% < dev < 100%
4	Momentum not None and > 5%	fixed in code
5	time_left > no_entry_before_end_sec	e.g. > 335

2.8 After a buy

1. FAK order: buy up to your size; unfilled part is cancelled.
2. Optional hedge (if enabled): GTD limit on the opposite token at hedge_price (often 0.02).
3. Near market end, the bot closes the internal position for P&L tracking using last prices.
4. Auto-redeem (if enabled) periodically redeems winning positions on Polygon.

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3. Prerequisites checklist

Item	Why
Python 3.11+ (3.12 is fine)	Runs the bot
pip / venv	Install packages in isolation
Polymarket account + USDC on Polygon	Trading collateral
Small amount of POL (MATIC)	Gas for on-chain redemptions (if you use auto-redeem)
CLOB API credentials	key, secret, passphrase from Polymarket
Wallet private key (0x…)	Signs orders and redeem txs; never share

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4. Environment setup — Windows

4.1 Install Python

1. Download the installer from https://www.python.org/downloads/ (Windows 64-bit).
2. Run it. Enable “Add Python to PATH” (important).
3. Close and reopen PowerShell or Command Prompt.

4.2 Verify

python --version
pip --version

You should see Python 3.11+ and pip. If python is not found, try py (Windows launcher):

py --version

4.3 Git Bash / sudo / apt

This project is not installed with sudo apt on Windows. Use Python for Windows or WSL (Ubuntu) if you want Linux-style commands.

4.4 Execution policy (PowerShell venv)

If activation fails with “running scripts is disabled”:

Set-ExecutionPolicy -ExecutionPolicy RemoteSigned -Scope CurrentUser

Then try .\venv\Scripts\Activate.ps1 again.

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5. Environment setup — Linux / macOS

5.1 Linux (Debian/Ubuntu example)

sudo apt update
sudo apt install -y python3 python3-pip python3-venv git
python3 --version

5.2 macOS

Install Python 3 from python.org or brew install python. Then:

python3 --version

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6. Get the project and install dependencies

6.1 Go to the project folder

If you already have the folder (btc-binary-VWAP-Momentum-bot), cd into it:

cd "path/to/polymakret-5min-15min-1hour-arbitrage-bot/btc-binary-VWAP-Momentum-bot"

If you clone from git:

git clone https://github.com/PolyBullLabs/polymakret-5min-15min-1hour-arbitrage-bot.git
cd polymakret-5min-15min-1hour-arbitrage-bot/btc-binary-VWAP-Momentum-bot

6.2 Create and activate a virtual environment

Windows (PowerShell)

python -m venv venv
.\venv\Scripts\Activate.ps1

Linux / macOS

python3 -m venv venv
source venv/bin/activate

Your prompt should show (venv).

6.3 Install Python packages

pip install --upgrade pip
pip install -r requirements.txt

Wait until it finishes without errors.

6.4 Quick sanity check

python -c "import rich, aiohttp, websockets; print('OK')"

If you see OK, dependencies are installed.

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7. Configure .env (secrets)

7.1 Create .env from the example

Windows

copy .env.example .env

Linux / macOS

cp .env.example .env

7.2 Fill each variable

Variable	Required	Example / notes
PRIVATE_KEY	Yes	0x + 64 hex chars. Never commit or share.
SIGNATURE_TYPE	Yes	0 = EOA (normal wallet). 1 or 2 = proxy / magic — see Polymarket docs.
FUNDER_ADDRESS	If proxy	Your Polymarket proxy wallet address when SIGNATURE_TYPE is 1 or 2.
POLY_API_KEY	Yes	From CLOB API.
POLY_API_SECRET	Yes	From CLOB API.
POLY_API_PASSPHRASE	Yes	From CLOB API.
RPC_URL	Optional	Default https://polygon-rpc.com, Alchemy/Infura recommended for production.
CHAIN_ID	Optional	137 for Polygon mainnet.
CLOB_HOST	Optional	Usually https://clob.polymarket.com.
TELEGRAM_BOT_TOKEN	Optional	From @BotFather.
TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID	Optional	Your numeric chat id (e.g. from @userinfobot).

7.3 Where to get API keys

• Log in to Polymarket, open the CLOB API / developer settings, and create API credentials (key, secret, passphrase).
• Official URL referenced in the repo: https://clob.polymarket.com

7.4 Example .env shape (fake values)

PRIVATE_KEY=0xaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
SIGNATURE_TYPE=0
FUNDER_ADDRESS=

POLY_API_KEY=xxxxxxxx-xxxx-xxxx-xxxx-xxxxxxxxxxxx
POLY_API_SECRET=your_secret_here
POLY_API_PASSPHRASE=your_passphrase_here

RPC_URL=https://polygon-rpc.com
CHAIN_ID=137
CLOB_HOST=https://clob.polymarket.com

TELEGRAM_BOT_TOKEN=
TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID=

Save the file. Confirm .env is gitignored (do not commit).

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8. Configure config.json (strategy and execution)

Edit config.json in the project root. Below: what each block does, recommended ranges, and numeric examples.

8.1 strategy block

Parameter	Meaning	Example
min_price	Minimum favorite token price to allow entry	0.75 — ignore favorites below $0.75
max_price	Maximum favorite token price	0.88 — do not buy above $0.88
min_elapsed_sec	Seconds after market open before entry	530 — wait ~8.8 min
min_deviation_pct	Deviation must be > this	3 — need more than 3% above VWAP
max_deviation_pct	Deviation must be < this	100 — effectively no upper cap
no_entry_before_end_sec	Stop entering if time_left ≤ this	335 — no new entries in last ~5.6 min
momentum_window_sec	Seconds of history for momentum	60 — compare to ~1 minute ago
vwap_window_sec	Seconds of trades for VWAP	30 — short-term average
win_rate_csv	Path to CSV for dashboard win rate	"data/win_rate.csv"

Deviation example

• VWAP (30s) = 0.78, last = 0.80 → deviation ≈ 2.56% → fails if min_deviation_pct is 3
• Last = 0.81 → deviation ≈ 3.85% → passes if min_deviation_pct is 3

8.2 entry block

Parameter	Meaning	Example
bet_amount_usd	Target spend per entry (subject to sizing rules)	5 → roughly $5 notional
price_offset	Added to price when placing FAK (more aggressive fill)	0.02 → pay up to +$0.02 vs reference
order_type	Entry type	"FAK" (fill and kill)
max_retries	Retries if order does not complete as expected	3
retry_delay_ms	Pause between retries	300
fill_timeout_ms	Used in executor / fill logic	1000
min_contracts	Polymarket minimum is often 5	5
min_order_usd	Minimum order size in USD	1
max_entry_price	Hard cap on execution price	0.88 — should align with strategy.max_price
ws_recovery_timeout_sec	After HTTP timeout, how long to watch User WS for fills	10

Sizing example

• bet_amount_usd = 5, best ask ≈ 0.80 → rough contracts = floor(5 / 0.80) = 6 (subject to mins and API).

8.3 hedge block

Parameter	Meaning	Example
enabled	true / false	false for beginners
hedge_price	Limit price for opposite token	0.02
order_type	Usually "GTD"	passive limit
max_retries	Placement retries	3
retry_delay_ms	Delay between retries	1000

Hedge intuition (not financial advice)
After a long on UP, a cheap limit order on DOWN can act as a partial hedge if the market moves so that DOWN trades near your limit. Costs and risks are real; start with enabled: false until you understand fills.

8.4 redeem block

Parameter	Meaning	Example
enabled	Run periodic on-chain redemption	true
interval_seconds	Seconds between scans	180
auto_confirm	Confirm in code path	true

Note: On Windows, some Unix-only locking in redeem may fail; Linux or WSL is safer for production.

8.5 telegram block

Parameter	Meaning
enabled	true to send Telegram messages
chart_every_n_trades	Intended for periodic equity charts (see TelegramNotifier.send_equity_chart); may not be wired in main.py in all versions — check the code if you rely on auto-charts

Tokens and chat id still come from .env.

8.6 logging block in config.json

The repo may include a logging section for documentation. Current main.py sets logging in code (e.g. logs/bot.log, INFO level). Do not assume config.json logging keys change behavior unless you wire them in code.

8.7 Preset ideas (copy-paste starting points)

Conservative (fewer trades, tighter band)

"strategy": {
  "min_price": 0.80,
  "max_price": 0.85,
  "min_elapsed_sec": 600,
  "min_deviation_pct": 5,
  "max_deviation_pct": 100,
  "no_entry_before_end_sec": 300,
  "momentum_window_sec": 60,
  "vwap_window_sec": 30,
  "win_rate_csv": "data/win_rate.csv"
},
"entry": { "bet_amount_usd": 2 },
"hedge": { "enabled": false }

Aggressive (more trades — higher risk)

"strategy": {
  "min_price": 0.70,
  "max_price": 0.90,
  "min_elapsed_sec": 400,
  "min_deviation_pct": 0,
  "max_deviation_pct": 100,
  "no_entry_before_end_sec": 120,
  "momentum_window_sec": 60,
  "vwap_window_sec": 30,
  "win_rate_csv": "data/win_rate.csv"
},
"entry": { "bet_amount_usd": 5 },
"hedge": { "enabled": false }

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9. Run the bot

1. Activate venv (see §6.2).
2. Ensure .env and config.json are saved.
3. From the project root (folder containing main.py):

python main.py

9.1 What you should see

• Startup messages (config summary, CLOB init).
• A live Rich dashboard: timer, UP/DOWN token panels, indicators, Strategy line, P&L.
• When a BUY UP / BUY DOWN signal is valid, the bot fires an entry (real money if your keys are live).

9.2 Stop the bot

Press Ctrl+C in the terminal. On Windows, Unix signal handlers may be limited; Ctrl+C still stops the process.

9.3 First-time recommendation

• Set bet_amount_usd small.
• Set hedge.enabled to false until you understand behavior.
• Watch logs/ while the market runs.

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10. Optional: Telegram

1. @BotFather → /newbot → copy token → TELEGRAM_BOT_TOKEN in .env.
2. @userinfobot → /start → copy Id → TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID.
3. Open your bot in Telegram and tap Start (required).
4. In config.json, set "telegram": { "enabled": true, ... }.

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11. Optional: P&L chart

After you have trades in logs/trading_log.json:

python chart_pnl.py

Output image: logs/pnl_chart.png (see chart_pnl.py).

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12. Logs and files

File / folder	Content
logs/bot.log	General bot log
logs/orders.log	Order execution detail
logs/hedges.log	Hedge-related logs
logs/signals.log	Signal snapshots
logs/trading_log.json	Persisted trades + stats
logs/pnl_chart.png	Generated by chart_pnl.py

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13. Troubleshooting

Problem	What to try
python not found (Windows)	Reinstall Python with Add to PATH, or use py -m venv venv
NotImplementedError on add_signal_handler	Already fixed on Windows in main.py — use latest code
Config errors on startup	Read the printed message; usually missing PRIVATE_KEY or API fields
python works but imports fail	Activate venv and run pip install -r requirements.txt again
No trades for a long time	Strategy window is narrow (see §2.5); or market never satisfies all filters
Redeem errors on Windows	Prefer WSL or Linux for auto-redeem; or disable redeem.enabled and redeem manually on Polymarket
Telegram not sending	Bot token + chat id + user pressed Start on bot; enabled: true

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14. Risk summary

• Real money — you can lose your stake.
• No strategy edge is guaranteed — this bot automates rules.
• Fees, slippage, and failed orders happen.
• Protect your private key — treat .env like a password.

For multi-asset late-entry trading, see Meridian (up-down-spread-bot) in the same repository. For PTB / oracle-diff rules and a web dashboard, see 5min-15min-PTB-bot. Extended quant offerings (Kelly, Monte Carlo, advanced TA, sizing systems) are described in the repository root README — contact @terauss.

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For a single-page parameter list, see CONFIG.md. For internals, see PROJECT_LOGIC.md.