"""Diagnose the IS sizing mismatch: Python avg net/trade = $0.38 vs MT5 $2.97. If gross P/L scales proportionally to MT5 (factor ~1/7.8) and trade count matches, it's pure sizing. If PF also shifts, the BE/trailing logic differs. """ from __future__ import annotations import json import sys from pathlib import Path PROJECT = Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent sys.path.insert(0, str(PROJECT)) import pandas as pd from shared.core.engine import SizingInputs from shared.core.metrics import compute_metrics from shared.data.loaders import load_bars from strategies.gold_scalper_pro.instruments import XAUUSD_REAL from strategies.gold_scalper_pro.scalper_engine import ( ScalperEngine, engine_kwargs_from_params, ) from strategies.gold_scalper_pro.search_space import FROZEN_BASELINE, SEARCH_SPACE from strategies.gold_scalper_pro.signals import build_signals import optuna from shared.optimizer.selector import select_diverse_topn IS_START = pd.Timestamp("2025-01-01 00:00:00") IS_END = pd.Timestamp("2026-01-01 00:00:00") def main() -> int: db = PROJECT / "studies" / "optuna" / "gold_scalper_pro_is2025.db" study = optuna.load_study( study_name="gold_scalper_pro_is2025", storage=f"sqlite:///{db}", ) finalists = select_diverse_topn(study, n=3, ranges=SEARCH_SPACE) t = finalists[0] merged = {**FROZEN_BASELINE, **t.params} print(f"finalist #1 (trial #{t.number})") print(f" InpRiskPercent = {merged['InpRiskPercent']}") print(f" InpAtrSLMult = {merged['InpAtrSLMult']}") print(f" InpAtrTPMult = {merged['InpAtrTPMult']}") m5 = load_bars(PROJECT / "data" / "XAUUSD_M5_2024-06-26_2026-06-26.parquet") m1 = load_bars(PROJECT / "data" / "XAUUSD_M1_2024-06-26_2026-06-26.parquet") is_bars = m5[(m5["timestamp"] >= IS_START) & (m5["timestamp"] < IS_END)].reset_index(drop=True) is_m1 = m1[(m1["timestamp"] >= IS_START) & (m1["timestamp"] < IS_END)].reset_index(drop=True) print(f" IS bars: {len(is_bars):,} IS M1: {len(is_m1):,}") pack = build_signals(merged, is_bars, XAUUSD_REAL) engine = ScalperEngine() result = engine.run( is_bars, pack.signals_long, pack.signals_short, pack.sl_prices, pack.tp_prices, XAUUSD_REAL, SizingInputs(), 1000.0, m1_bars=is_m1, **engine_kwargs_from_params(merged), ) m = compute_metrics(result, periods_per_year=252 * 24 * 12) gross_profit = sum(t.pnl for t in result.trades if t.pnl > 0) gross_loss = sum(t.pnl for t in result.trades if t.pnl < 0) print(f"\nPython IS:") print(f" trades = {m.total_trades}") print(f" gross profit = {gross_profit:.2f}") print(f" gross loss = {gross_loss:.2f}") print(f" net = {gross_profit + gross_loss:.2f}") print(f" PF = {gross_profit / -gross_loss:.4f}" if gross_loss < 0 else " PF = inf") print(f" avg net/trade = {(gross_profit + gross_loss) / m.total_trades:.4f}") # Sample first 5 trades — check lot sizes & prices. print(f"\nFirst 5 trades:") print(f" {'time':<21} {'dir':<5} {'entry':>10} {'exit':>10} {'lots':>8} {'pnl':>9} {'reason'}") for t in result.trades[:5]: d = "LONG" if t.direction.name == "LONG" else "SHRT" print(f" {str(t.entry_time):<21} {d:<5} {t.entry_price:>10.2f} " f"{t.exit_price:>10.2f} {t.lots:>8.4f} {t.pnl:>9.4f} {t.exit_reason}") # Distribution of lots. import numpy as np lots_arr = np.array([t.lots for t in result.trades]) print(f"\n lots: min={lots_arr.min():.4f} max={lots_arr.max():.4f} " f"mean={lots_arr.mean():.4f} median={np.median(lots_arr):.4f}") print(f" lots unique count: {len(np.unique(lots_arr))}") print(f" lots histogram (top 5):") vals, counts = np.unique(lots_arr, return_counts=True) for v, c in sorted(zip(vals, counts), key=lambda x: -x[1])[:5]: print(f" {v:.4f} ×{c}") # MT5 comparison. print(f"\nMT5 IS (from report):") print(f" gross profit = 23416.75") print(f" gross loss = -16429.41") print(f" net = 6987.34") print(f" PF = 1.43") print(f" trades = 2348") print(f" avg net/trade = {6987.34/2348:.4f}") # Scaling check: if Python lots were 7.8x larger, would P/L match? py_gross = gross_profit mt5_gross = 23416.75 print(f"\n scaling factor (MT5 gross profit / Python gross profit): " f"{mt5_gross/py_gross:.2f}x") return 0 if __name__ == "__main__": raise SystemExit(main())