phase 7-8 完成 + warmup 修复 + 产物结构化重组

主要内容:
- Phase 8 PROMOTE: finalist #1 (trial #324) registry 条目,自动生成
- Optuna objective warmup bug 修复 (shared/optimizer/objective.py)
- studies/ 目录按用途重组为 optuna/ + finalists/ + features/ 三层
- reports/ 加入 Optuna 中文 dashboard (5 主图 + 18 slice + 15 contour)
- 新增 PROJECT_GUIDE.md 项目说明文档
- 新增 build_registry_entry.py / build_optuna_dashboard.py / build_feature_datasets.py
- .gitignore: 允许提交 studies/*.db (Optuna DB) 和 reports/*.html (MT5 + dashboard)
This commit is contained in:
2026-06-27 00:28:07 +08:00
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"""Build machine-learning-ready feature parquet datasets.
Two datasets are produced for the current finalist #1 (trial #324, the one
in ``registry/``):
1. ``studies/features/trade_features_gold_scalper_pro_is2025.parquet`` (+ .csv) — one row per closed trade,
with the indicator + market state at entry time. Used for "which entry
conditions predict winning trades" classification / feature analysis.
2. ``studies/features/trial_features_gold_scalper_pro_is2025.parquet`` (+ .csv) — one row per Optuna trial,
with all params + the objective's reported metrics. Used for parameter-
sensitivity analysis, parameter importance, and meta-learning.
Both are written as Parquet (binary, typed) and CSV (human-readable) so you
can ``pd.read_parquet`` for ML or open the CSV in Excel.
Usage:
python scripts/build_feature_datasets.py
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import sys
from pathlib import Path
PROJECT = Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent
sys.path.insert(0, str(PROJECT))
import json
import optuna
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from shared.core.engine import SizingInputs
from shared.data.loaders import load_bars
from shared.indicators.base import atr, ema, rsi
from strategies.gold_scalper_pro.instruments import XAUUSD_REAL
from strategies.gold_scalper_pro.scalper_engine import (
ScalperEngine,
engine_kwargs_from_params,
)
from strategies.gold_scalper_pro.search_space import FROZEN_BASELINE
from strategies.gold_scalper_pro.signals import build_signals
# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
# Trade-level features
# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
TRADE_FEATURE_COLUMNS = [
# identity
"trade_id",
# timing
"entry_time", "exit_time", "duration_minutes",
"hour_of_day", "day_of_week",
# trade
"direction", "entry_price", "exit_price", "lots",
"pnl", "swap", "exit_reason", "is_win", "pnl_pct",
# sizing context
"equity_at_entry", "risk_percent", "sl_distance", "sl_distance_pct",
# indicators at entry (computed on the SIGNAL bar, i.e. one bar before fill)
"atr_at_entry", "atr_pct_of_close",
"rsi_at_entry",
"fast_ema_at_entry", "slow_ema_at_entry",
"dist_to_fast", "dist_to_fast_atr",
"dist_to_slow",
"fast_minus_slow",
"trend_up",
"close_at_entry", "high_at_entry", "low_at_entry",
"spread_at_entry", "spread_atr_ratio",
# ML target candidates (the user can pick)
"label_win", # binary 0/1 — classification target
"label_pnl_zscore", # z-score of pnl across all trades — regression target
]
def build_trade_features(
bars: pd.DataFrame,
m1_bars: pd.DataFrame,
params: dict,
is_start: pd.Timestamp,
is_end: pd.Timestamp,
) -> pd.DataFrame:
"""Run finalist #1 with warmup, then build a per-trade feature table."""
# Warmup pattern: signals on full bars, slice to IS window for engine.
pack = build_signals(params, bars, XAUUSD_REAL)
ts = pd.to_datetime(bars["timestamp"].to_numpy())
lo = int(ts.searchsorted(is_start, side="left"))
hi = int(ts.searchsorted(is_end, side="left"))
bars_is = bars.iloc[lo:hi].reset_index(drop=True)
sig_long = pack.signals_long[lo:hi]
sig_short = pack.signals_short[lo:hi]
sl_p = pack.sl_prices[lo:hi]
tp_p = pack.tp_prices[lo:hi]
m1_ts = pd.to_datetime(m1_bars["timestamp"].to_numpy())
m1_lo = int(m1_ts.searchsorted(is_start, side="left"))
m1_hi = int(m1_ts.searchsorted(is_end, side="left"))
m1_is = m1_bars.iloc[m1_lo:m1_hi].reset_index(drop=True)
engine = ScalperEngine()
result = engine.run(
bars_is, sig_long, sig_short, sl_p, tp_p,
XAUUSD_REAL, SizingInputs(), 1000.0,
m1_bars=m1_is,
**engine_kwargs_from_params(params),
)
trades = result.trades
if not trades:
return pd.DataFrame(columns=TRADE_FEATURE_COLUMNS)
# Recompute indicator arrays on the full bars (same as build_signals),
# then index by each trade's entry_time to get the at-entry state.
close = bars["close"].to_numpy(dtype=float)
high = bars["high"].to_numpy(dtype=float)
low = bars["low"].to_numpy(dtype=float)
atr_arr = atr(high, low, close, int(params["InpAtrPeriod"]))
rsi_arr = rsi(close, int(params["InpRsiPeriod"]))
fast_e = ema(close, int(params["InpFastEmaPeriod"]))
slow_e = ema(close, int(params["InpSlowEmaPeriod"]))
spread_pts = bars["spread"].to_numpy(dtype=float) if "spread" in bars else np.zeros(len(bars))
spread_px = spread_pts * XAUUSD_REAL.point
bars_ts = pd.to_datetime(bars["timestamp"].to_numpy())
# Pre-build a ts → idx lookup so per-trade search is O(log n).
# Each trade's entry_time is the bar AFTER the signal bar (the engine fills
# at next-bar open), so we look up the bar index for entry_time, then take
# idx-1 as the signal bar (where indicators are read).
bar_idx_at = pd.Index(bars_ts)
def signal_idx(entry_time: pd.Timestamp) -> int:
# The engine records entry_time as the fill bar's timestamp. We want
# the PREVIOUS bar (the signal bar where indicators were ready).
pos = bar_idx_at.get_indexer([entry_time], method="pad")[0]
return int(pos) - 1 if pos > 0 else 0
rows = []
risk_pct = float(params["InpRiskPercent"])
atr_sl_mult = float(params["InpAtrSLMult"])
for i, tr in enumerate(trades):
sig_i = signal_idx(tr.entry_time)
if sig_i < 0 or sig_i >= len(close):
continue
c_sig = close[sig_i]
atr_sig = atr_arr[sig_i]
rsi_sig = rsi_arr[sig_i]
fast_sig = fast_e[sig_i]
slow_sig = slow_e[sig_i]
sp_sig = spread_px[sig_i]
sl_dist = atr_sl_mult * atr_sig
duration_min = (tr.exit_time - tr.entry_time).total_seconds() / 60.0
pnl_pct = (tr.pnl / max(tr.entry_price * tr.lots * XAUUSD_REAL.contract_size, 1e-9)) * 100.0
rows.append({
"trade_id": i + 1,
"entry_time": tr.entry_time,
"exit_time": tr.exit_time,
"duration_minutes": duration_min,
"hour_of_day": int(tr.entry_time.hour),
"day_of_week": int(tr.entry_time.dayofweek),
"direction": tr.direction.name,
"entry_price": tr.entry_price,
"exit_price": tr.exit_price,
"lots": tr.lots,
"pnl": tr.pnl,
"swap": tr.swap,
"exit_reason": tr.exit_reason,
"is_win": bool(tr.pnl > 0),
"pnl_pct": pnl_pct,
"equity_at_entry": float("nan"), # filled below from equity curve
"risk_percent": risk_pct,
"sl_distance": sl_dist,
"sl_distance_pct": (sl_dist / c_sig) * 100.0,
"atr_at_entry": atr_sig,
"atr_pct_of_close": (atr_sig / c_sig) * 100.0,
"rsi_at_entry": rsi_sig,
"fast_ema_at_entry": fast_sig,
"slow_ema_at_entry": slow_sig,
"dist_to_fast": abs(c_sig - fast_sig),
"dist_to_fast_atr": abs(c_sig - fast_sig) / atr_sig if atr_sig > 0 else float("nan"),
"dist_to_slow": abs(c_sig - slow_sig),
"fast_minus_slow": fast_sig - slow_sig,
"trend_up": bool(fast_sig > slow_sig and c_sig > slow_sig),
"close_at_entry": c_sig,
"high_at_entry": high[sig_i],
"low_at_entry": low[sig_i],
"spread_at_entry": sp_sig,
"spread_atr_ratio": sp_sig / atr_sig if atr_sig > 0 else float("nan"),
"label_win": 1 if tr.pnl > 0 else 0,
"label_pnl_zscore": float("nan"), # filled below
})
df = pd.DataFrame(rows)
if df.empty:
return df
# Approximate equity-at-entry from the equity curve (the engine samples
# periodically; the closest sample before entry_time is a fair proxy).
ec = result.equity_curve
if not ec.empty and "equity" in ec.columns:
ec_ts = pd.to_datetime(ec["timestamp"].to_numpy())
ec_eq = ec["equity"].to_numpy(dtype=float)
ec_idx = pd.Index(ec_ts)
positions = ec_idx.get_indexer(df["entry_time"].to_numpy(), method="pad")
positions = np.where(positions < 0, 0, positions)
df["equity_at_entry"] = ec_eq[positions]
# Z-score of pnl across all trades — a regression-style label that
# normalizes for the strategy's overall edge.
if df["pnl"].std() > 0:
df["label_pnl_zscore"] = (df["pnl"] - df["pnl"].mean()) / df["pnl"].std()
return df[TRADE_FEATURE_COLUMNS]
# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
# Trial-level features
# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
TRIAL_FEATURE_COLUMNS = [
"trial_number", "state",
# searched params (SEARCH_SPACE keys)
"InpFastEmaPeriod", "InpSlowEmaPeriod", "InpRsiPeriod",
"InpRsiBuyLevel", "InpRsiSellLevel", "InpPullbackAtrMult",
"InpAtrPeriod", "InpMaxSpreadAtrPct",
"InpRiskPercent", "InpAtrSLMult", "InpAtrTPMult",
"InpBreakEvenPoints", "InpBreakEvenLock",
"InpTrailStartPoints", "InpTrailStepPoints",
"InpMaxTradesPerDay", "InpDailyLossLimit", "InpMinSecondsBetween",
# objective output
"score",
# user_attrs metrics (written by objective on completion)
"net_profit", "profit_factor", "total_trades",
"max_equity_dd", "max_equity_dd_pct", "win_rate", "sharpe",
# finalist tagging
"is_finalist", "finalist_rank",
# error info
"error_message",
]
def build_trial_features(study: optuna.Study, finalists_json: dict | None) -> pd.DataFrame:
"""One row per Optuna trial with params + metrics + finalist tag."""
# finalist map: trial_number → rank (0/1/2)
finalist_map: dict[int, int] = {}
if finalists_json:
for rank, fl in enumerate(finalists_json.get("finalists", [])):
tn = fl.get("trial_number")
if tn is not None:
finalist_map[int(tn)] = rank
rows = []
for t in study.trials:
# Skip RUNNING / WAITING trials — no metrics yet.
if t.state == optuna.trial.TrialState.COMPLETE:
state = "COMPLETE"
elif t.state == optuna.trial.TrialState.PRUNED:
state = "PRUNED"
elif t.state == optuna.trial.TrialState.FAIL:
state = "FAIL"
else:
continue # RUNNING / WAITING: skip
ua = t.user_attrs or {}
row = {
"trial_number": t.number,
"state": state,
}
# Fill params (None for missing → preserves column type).
for p in TRIAL_FEATURE_COLUMNS:
if p in ("trial_number", "state", "is_finalist", "finalist_rank",
"error_message", "score"):
continue
if p in ("net_profit", "profit_factor", "total_trades",
"max_equity_dd", "max_equity_dd_pct", "win_rate", "sharpe"):
row[p] = ua.get(p)
continue
# param
row[p] = t.params.get(p)
row["score"] = t.value
row["is_finalist"] = t.number in finalist_map
row["finalist_rank"] = finalist_map.get(t.number)
row["error_message"] = (ua.get("error") if state == "FAIL" else None)
rows.append(row)
return pd.DataFrame(rows, columns=TRIAL_FEATURE_COLUMNS)
# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
# Main
# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
def main() -> int:
IS_START = pd.Timestamp("2025-01-01 00:00:00")
IS_END = pd.Timestamp("2026-01-01 00:00:00")
# ── Trial features ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────
db = PROJECT / "studies" / "optuna" / "gold_scalper_pro_is2025.db"
finalists_json_path = PROJECT / "studies" / "finalists" / "gold_scalper_pro_is2025-2026.json"
print(f"=== trial-level features ===")
print(f" study: gold_scalper_pro_is2025 ({db.relative_to(PROJECT)})")
study = optuna.load_study(
study_name="gold_scalper_pro_is2025",
storage=f"sqlite:///{db}",
)
finalists_json = None
if finalists_json_path.exists():
import json
finalists_json = json.loads(finalists_json_path.read_text(encoding="utf-8"))
print(f" finalists JSON: {len(finalists_json.get('finalists', []))} entries")
trial_df = build_trial_features(study, finalists_json)
trial_out_parquet = PROJECT / "studies" / "features" / "trial_features_gold_scalper_pro_is2025.parquet"
trial_out_csv = PROJECT / "studies" / "features" / "trial_features_gold_scalper_pro_is2025.csv"
trial_df.to_parquet(trial_out_parquet, index=False)
trial_df.to_csv(trial_out_csv, index=False)
print(f"{trial_out_parquet.relative_to(PROJECT)} ({len(trial_df):,} rows)")
print(f"{trial_out_csv.relative_to(PROJECT)}")
complete = trial_df[trial_df["state"] == "COMPLETE"]
print(f" complete: {len(complete):,} finalists: {trial_df['is_finalist'].sum()}")
# ── Trade features (finalist #1 only — the registered one) ──────────────
print(f"\n=== trade-level features (finalist #1) ===")
if finalists_json is None or not finalists_json.get("finalists"):
print(" ERROR: finalists JSON missing — run reeval_finalist_forward.py first")
return 1
f1 = finalists_json["finalists"][0]
f1_trial = study.trials[f1["trial_number"]]
params = {**FROZEN_BASELINE, **f1["params"]}
print(f" finalist #1: trial #{f1_trial.number} score={f1['score']:.4f}")
bars = load_bars(PROJECT / "data" / "XAUUSD_M5_2024-06-26_2026-06-26.parquet")
m1 = load_bars(PROJECT / "data" / "XAUUSD_M1_2024-06-26_2026-06-26.parquet")
print(f" bars : M5={len(bars):,} M1={len(m1):,}")
trade_df = build_trade_features(bars, m1, params, IS_START, IS_END)
trade_out_parquet = PROJECT / "studies" / "features" / "trade_features_gold_scalper_pro_is2025.parquet"
trade_out_csv = PROJECT / "studies" / "features" / "trade_features_gold_scalper_pro_is2025.csv"
trade_df.to_parquet(trade_out_parquet, index=False)
trade_df.to_csv(trade_out_csv, index=False)
print(f"{trade_out_parquet.relative_to(PROJECT)} ({len(trade_df):,} rows)")
print(f"{trade_out_csv.relative_to(PROJECT)}")
if not trade_df.empty:
wins = trade_df["label_win"].sum()
print(f" trades: {len(trade_df):,} wins: {wins} ({wins/len(trade_df):.1%}) "
f"avg pnl: ${trade_df['pnl'].mean():.3f}")
print(f" exit reasons:")
for r, n in trade_df["exit_reason"].value_counts().items():
sub = trade_df[trade_df["exit_reason"] == r]
print(f" {r:<14} {n:>5} ({n/len(trade_df):.1%}) "
f"avg_pnl=${sub['pnl'].mean():.3f} win_rate={sub['label_win'].mean():.1%}")
return 0
if __name__ == "__main__":
raise SystemExit(main())
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"""Build a single-file interactive Optuna dashboard (中文 HTML).
Loads the persisted Optuna study from ``studies/optuna/gold_scalper_pro_is2025.db`` and
writes ``reports/optuna_dashboard_<study>.html`` containing 7 plotly charts
bundled into one page (each ``fig.to_html(full_html=False, include_plotlyjs='cdn')``
fragments + minimal CSS). Every chart's title and axis labels are localized
to 简体中文 so the report reads natively.
Charts:
1. 优化历史 (plot_optimization_history)
2. 参数重要性 (plot_param_importances)
3. 平行坐标图 (plot_parallel_coordinate)
4. 参数切片图 (plot_slice)
5. 等高线图 (plot_contour)
6. 经验分布函数 (plot_edf)
7. 时间线 (plot_timeline)
Usage:
python scripts/build_optuna_dashboard.py
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import sys
from pathlib import Path
from html import escape
PROJECT = Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent
sys.path.insert(0, str(PROJECT))
import optuna
STUDY_NAME = "gold_scalper_pro_is2025"
STUDY_DB = PROJECT / "studies" / "optuna" / "gold_scalper_pro_is2025.db"
OUT_HTML = PROJECT / "reports" / f"optuna_dashboard_{STUDY_NAME}.html"
# Chart-level metadata: (call name, 中文标题, 中文 X 轴, 中文 Y 轴)
# Y axis label None means "leave Optuna default" (some plots set their own).
# Note: plot_slice and plot_contour are rendered separately as per-param
# grids below the main dashboard — those two are too dense (19 params) to
# be readable as a single chart.
CHARTS: list[tuple[str, str, str | None, str | None]] = [
("plot_optimization_history", "优化历史",
"试验序号 Trial", "目标值 Objective (score)"),
("plot_param_importances", "参数重要性 (fANOVA)",
"超参数 Hyperparameter", "重要性 Importance"),
("plot_parallel_coordinate", "平行坐标图 — 参数 ↔ score",
None, None),
("plot_edf", "经验分布函数 (EDF)",
"目标值 Objective", "累积分布 CDF"),
("plot_timeline", "时间线 — 试验耗时与状态",
"试验序号 Trial", "耗时 (秒) Elapsed (s)"),
]
# Per-parameter charts: each param gets its own small slice + contour grid.
# Rendered as separate <section> blocks below the main dashboard.
PER_PARAM_CHARTS = [
"InpFastEmaPeriod", "InpSlowEmaPeriod", "InpRsiPeriod",
"InpRsiBuyLevel", "InpRsiSellLevel", "InpPullbackAtrMult",
"InpAtrPeriod", "InpMaxSpreadAtrPct",
"InpRiskPercent", "InpAtrSLMult", "InpAtrTPMult",
"InpBreakEvenPoints", "InpBreakEvenLock",
"InpTrailStartPoints", "InpTrailStepPoints",
"InpMaxTradesPerDay", "InpDailyLossLimit", "InpMinSecondsBetween",
]
def localize(fig, title_zh: str, x_zh: str | None, y_zh: str | None):
"""Localize a plotly Figure's title + axis labels to 简体中文."""
fig.update_layout(title=title_zh)
if x_zh is not None:
fig.update_xaxes(title_text=x_zh)
if y_zh is not None:
fig.update_yaxes(title_text=y_zh)
# Translate the legend "Objective" → "目标值" where it shows up.
if fig.layout.legend and fig.layout.legend.title:
leg = fig.layout.legend.title.text
if leg and "Objective" in leg:
fig.update_layout(legend_title_text="图例")
# Apply a Chinese-readable base font + light theme.
fig.update_layout(
font=dict(family="Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif", size=12, color="#222"),
template="plotly_white",
)
return fig
def render_chart(fn_name: str, study: optuna.Study, include_plotly: bool) -> str:
"""Call optuna.visualization.<fn>(study), localize, return HTML fragment.
plotly.js is loaded ONCE via CDN <script> in ``<head>`` (see
build_index_html). Every chart fragment therefore passes
include_plotlyjs=False — no per-chart JS bundle, no async race, no 5 MB
of inline JS blocking the parser before any chart can render.
"""
fn = getattr(optuna.visualization, fn_name, None)
if fn is None:
return f'<div class="chart-error">⚠ 函数 <code>{escape(fn_name)}</code> 不存在</div>'
try:
fig = fn(study)
except Exception as e: # some plots fail on trivial studies
return (f'<div class="chart-error">⚠ <code>{escape(fn_name)}</code> 生成失败:'
f'{escape(str(e))}</div>')
title_zh = next(t for fn_, t, *_ in CHARTS if fn_ == fn_name)
x_zh = next(x for fn_, _, x, *_ in CHARTS if fn_ == fn_name)
y_zh = next(y for fn_, _, _, y in CHARTS if fn_ == fn_name)
fig = localize(fig, title_zh, x_zh, y_zh)
fig.update_layout(height=520, width=1100)
return fig.to_html(
full_html=False,
include_plotlyjs=False,
div_id=f"chart-{fn_name}",
)
def render_slice_grid(study: optuna.Study, params: list[str]) -> list[tuple[str, str]]:
"""Render one slice chart PER parameter — readable single-column subplots.
plot_slice(study) defaults to cramming all params into one 5400px-wide
figure where axis labels overlap. Splitting per-param gives each a
1100×520 card where labels are readable.
"""
fragments: list[tuple[str, str]] = []
for p in params:
try:
fig = optuna.visualization.plot_slice(study, params=[p])
except Exception as e:
frag = (f'<div class="chart-error">⚠ slice[{escape(p)}] 生成失败:'
f'{escape(str(e))}</div>')
fragments.append((f"切片 — {p}", frag))
continue
fig = localize(fig, f"参数切片 — {p}", p, "目标值 Objective (score)")
fig.update_layout(height=420, width=900, margin=dict(l=60, r=40, t=60, b=60))
frag = fig.to_html(full_html=False, include_plotlyjs=False,
div_id=f"slice-{p}")
fragments.append((f"切片 — {p}", frag))
return fragments
def render_contour_grid(study: optuna.Study, params: list[str]) -> list[tuple[str, str]]:
"""Render contour charts for the most important param pairs.
Full N×N contour is unreadable (19² = 361 subplots). Instead, take the
top-K most important params (by fANOVA) and render only those pairs —
a K×K grid that's actually readable.
"""
try:
importances = optuna.importance.get_param_importances(study)
# Get top-K by importance; only params that exist in our list.
top_params = [p for p, _ in sorted(importances.items(),
key=lambda x: x[1], reverse=True)
if p in params][:6]
except Exception:
top_params = params[:6] # fallback: first 6
fragments: list[tuple[str, str]] = []
# Render each pair (i<j) as its own contour chart.
for i, p1 in enumerate(top_params):
for p2 in top_params[i + 1:]:
try:
fig = optuna.visualization.plot_contour(study, params=[p1, p2])
except Exception as e:
frag = (f'<div class="chart-error">⚠ contour[{escape(p1)}×{escape(p2)}] '
f'生成失败:{escape(str(e))}</div>')
fragments.append((f"等高线 — {p1} × {p2}", frag))
continue
fig = localize(fig, f"等高线 — {p1} × {p2}", p1, p2)
fig.update_layout(height=520, width=700,
margin=dict(l=70, r=70, t=60, b=70))
frag = fig.to_html(full_html=False, include_plotlyjs=False,
div_id=f"contour-{p1}-{p2}")
fragments.append((f"等高线 — {p1} × {p2}", frag))
return fragments
def build_index_html(
study: optuna.Study,
main_fragments: list[tuple[str, str]],
slice_fragments: list[tuple[str, str]],
contour_fragments: list[tuple[str, str]],
) -> str:
"""Assemble chart fragments into a single styled dashboard HTML."""
n_trials = len(study.trials)
completed = len([t for t in study.trials if t.state == optuna.trial.TrialState.COMPLETE])
pruned = len([t for t in study.trials if t.state == optuna.trial.TrialState.PRUNED])
failed = len([t for t in study.trials if t.state == optuna.trial.TrialState.FAIL])
best = study.best_trial if study.best_trial is not None else None
best_str = (
f"trial #{best.number}, score={best.value:.4f}"
if best is not None else ""
)
def cards(frs):
return "\n".join(
f'<section class="chart"><h2>{escape(title)}</h2>{frag}</section>'
for title, frag in frs
)
main_cards = cards(main_fragments)
slice_cards = cards(slice_fragments)
contour_cards = cards(contour_fragments)
slice_section = (
f'<h2 class="section-title">参数切片图(单参数影响)</h2>'
f'<p class="section-desc">每参数独立小图,避免 19 参数挤在 5400px 宽的复合图里导致标签重叠。</p>'
f'{slice_cards}'
if slice_fragments else ""
)
contour_section = (
f'<h2 class="section-title">等高线图(参数两两交互)</h2>'
f'<p class="section-desc">按 fANOVA 重要性 Top-6 参数两两配对,避免 19²=361 子图密集到无法读。</p>'
f'{contour_cards}'
if contour_fragments else ""
)
return f"""<!DOCTYPE html>
<html lang="zh-CN">
<head>
<meta charset="utf-8">
<title>Optuna Dashboard — {escape(STUDY_NAME)}</title>
<!-- plotly.js loaded via CDN, SYNCHRONOUSLY in <head> (no async/defer).
Browser blocks parsing until this <script> finishes, so by the time
the body's chart <script>Plotly.newPlot(...)</script> tags execute,
window.Plotly is defined. -->
<script src="https://cdn.plot.ly/plotly-3.6.0.min.js"></script>
<style>
:root {{
--bg:#f5f5f7; --fg:#222; --card:#fff; --border:#ddd;
--accent:#2563eb; --muted:#666;
}}
* {{ box-sizing: border-box; }}
body {{
margin: 0; padding: 2rem; background: var(--bg); color: var(--fg);
font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", "Segoe UI", Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 1.6;
}}
header {{ margin-bottom: 2rem; border-bottom: 2px solid var(--accent); padding-bottom: 1rem; }}
h1 {{ margin: 0 0 .25rem; font-size: 1.75rem; }}
h2 {{ margin: 0 0 .75rem; font-size: 1.25rem; color: var(--accent); }}
.meta {{ display: flex; gap: 1.5rem; flex-wrap: wrap; color: var(--muted); font-size: .9rem; }}
.meta b {{ color: var(--fg); }}
.grid {{ display: flex; flex-direction: column; gap: 2rem; }}
.chart {{
background: var(--card); border: 1px solid var(--border); border-radius: 8px;
padding: 1.5rem; box-shadow: 0 1px 3px rgba(0,0,0,.04);
overflow-x: auto;
}}
.chart-error {{ color: #b00; padding: 1rem; background: #fff0f0; border-radius: 6px; }}
.section-title {{
margin: 3rem 0 0.5rem; padding-top: 1.5rem; border-top: 2px dashed var(--accent);
font-size: 1.4rem; color: var(--accent);
}}
.section-desc {{ margin: 0 0 1.5rem; color: var(--muted); font-size: .9rem; }}
footer {{ margin-top: 3rem; padding-top: 1rem; border-top: 1px solid var(--border);
color: var(--muted); font-size: .85rem; }}
</style>
</head>
<body>
<header>
<h1>Optuna 优化仪表盘</h1>
<div class="meta">
<span>研究名称:<b>{escape(STUDY_NAME)}</b></span>
<span>试验总数:<b>{n_trials}</b></span>
<span>完成:<b>{completed}</b></span>
<span>剪枝:<b>{pruned}</b></span>
<span>失败:<b>{failed}</b></span>
<span>最佳:<b>{best_str}</b></span>
</div>
</header>
<main class="grid">
{main_cards}
{slice_section}
{contour_section}
</main>
<footer>
生成时间:2026-06-26 · 来源:<code>{escape(str(STUDY_DB.relative_to(PROJECT)))}</code>
· 框架:<a href="https://optuna.org">Optuna</a> + <a href="https://plotly.com/python">Plotly</a>
</footer>
</body>
</html>
"""
def main() -> int:
if not STUDY_DB.exists():
print(f"study DB not found: {STUDY_DB}")
return 1
print(f"loading study: {STUDY_NAME}{STUDY_DB.relative_to(PROJECT)}")
study = optuna.load_study(
study_name=STUDY_NAME,
storage=f"sqlite:///{STUDY_DB}",
)
best_val = study.best_trial.value if study.best_trial is not None else None
print(f" trials: {len(study.trials)} best: "
f"{best_val:.4f}" if best_val is not None else " trials: (no best yet)")
# Main dashboard charts (single-figure plots that render fine at 1100×520).
main_fragments: list[tuple[str, str]] = []
for i, (fn_name, title_zh, *_) in enumerate(CHARTS):
print(f" · {fn_name} ({title_zh}) …", end=" ", flush=True)
frag = render_chart(fn_name, study, include_plotly=(i == 0))
main_fragments.append((title_zh, frag))
print("OK" if "chart-error" not in frag else "FAILED")
# Per-parameter slice charts — readable single-column subplots instead
# of plot_slice's 5400px-wide composite that crammed all 19 params.
print(f"\n building per-param slice charts ({len(PER_PARAM_CHARTS)} params)…")
slice_fragments = render_slice_grid(study, PER_PARAM_CHARTS)
n_ok = sum(1 for _, f in slice_fragments if "chart-error" not in f)
print(f" slice: {n_ok}/{len(slice_fragments)} OK")
# Per-pair contour charts — only top-6 important params (15 pairs)
# instead of plot_contour's 19² = 361 unreadable subplots.
print(f" building per-pair contour charts (top-6 important params)…")
contour_fragments = render_contour_grid(study, PER_PARAM_CHARTS)
n_ok = sum(1 for _, f in contour_fragments if "chart-error" not in f)
print(f" contour: {n_ok}/{len(contour_fragments)} OK")
OUT_HTML.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
html = build_index_html(study, main_fragments, slice_fragments, contour_fragments)
OUT_HTML.write_text(html, encoding="utf-8")
print(f"\nwritten: {OUT_HTML.relative_to(PROJECT)} ({len(html):,} bytes)")
print(f"open: {OUT_HTML.as_uri()}")
return 0
if __name__ == "__main__":
raise SystemExit(main())
+687
View File
@@ -0,0 +1,687 @@
"""自动生成 registry 条目 markdown(中文,append-only)。
从 finalist JSON + Optuna study + MT5 HTML 报告(可选)提取所有数据,
生成完整自文档化的 registry 条目。脚本化而非手写——后续任何 finalist
都能用同一命令产出同结构的文档。
用法::
# 默认 finalist #1,自动查找 reports/IS-Report*.html 和 OOS-Report*.html
python scripts/build_registry_entry.py
# 指定 finalist index
python scripts/build_registry_entry.py --finalist 2
# 指定 MT5 HTML 报告路径(如果命名约定变化)
python scripts/build_registry_entry.py --finalist 1 \\
--mt5-is-html reports/IS-ReportTester-52845377.html \\
--mt5-oos-html reports/OOS-ReportTester-52845377.html
# 跳过 MT5 部分(仅 Python 数据)
python scripts/build_registry_entry.py --no-mt5
输出:``registry/<strategy>_<symbol>_<IS_START>_<OOS_END>.md``
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import argparse
import json
import sys
from datetime import datetime
from pathlib import Path
from typing import Any
PROJECT = Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent
sys.path.insert(0, str(PROJECT))
import optuna
import pandas as pd
from shared.data.mt5_report import parse_mt5_report
from strategies.gold_scalper_pro.search_space import (
FROZEN_BASELINE,
INT_PARAMS,
SEARCH_SPACE,
)
STUDY_NAME = "gold_scalper_pro_is2025"
STUDY_DB = PROJECT / "studies" / "optuna" / "gold_scalper_pro_is2025.db"
FINALISTS_JSON = PROJECT / "studies" / "finalists" / "gold_scalper_pro_is2025-2026.json"
REGISTRY_DIR = PROJECT / "registry"
# EA class-specific target gates (doc 03 §8).
# BE/trailing + M1 tick-level engine → 10% / 10% / 5% / 10%.
TARGET_GATES = {
"net": 0.10,
"PF": 0.10,
"trades": 0.05,
"DD": 0.10,
}
# Parameter 中文说明(用于参数表第三列)。
PARAM_DESCRIPTIONS = {
"InpTimeframe": "信号时间框架(ENUM_TIMEFRAMES5=M5",
"InpFastEmaPeriod": "快 EMA 周期(趋势定义)",
"InpSlowEmaPeriod": "慢 EMA 周期(趋势定义)",
"InpRsiPeriod": "RSI 周期(回撤触发)",
"InpRsiBuyLevel": "RSI 买入阈值",
"InpRsiSellLevel": "RSI 卖出阈值",
"InpPullbackAtrMult": "回撤 ATR 倍数(价格偏离 fast EMA 限值)",
"InpAtrPeriod": "ATR 周期(波动率度量)",
"InpMinAtrPoints": "最小 ATR 点数(波动率地板)",
"InpMaxSpreadAtrPct": "最大点差占 ATR 百分比(成本门)",
"InpSizingMode": "仓位模式(1=risk-on-stop",
"InpFixedLots": "固定手数(sizing=0 时用)",
"InpRiskPercent": "单笔风险占权益 %",
"InpStopMode": "止损模式(0=ATR1=点数)",
"InpAtrSLMult": "ATR 止损倍数",
"InpAtrTPMult": "ATR 止盈倍数",
"InpStopLossPoints": "止损点数(stopmode=1 时用)",
"InpTakeProfitPoints": "止盈点数(stopmode=1 时用)",
"InpUseBreakEven": "启用保本",
"InpBreakEvenPoints": "保本触发点数",
"InpBreakEvenLock": "保本锁定点数",
"InpUseTrailing": "启用追踪止损",
"InpTrailStartPoints": "追踪触发点数",
"InpTrailStepPoints": "追踪步长(点数)",
"InpMaxPositions": "最大持仓数(1=单仓策略)",
"InpMaxTradesPerDay": "单日最大交易数",
"InpDailyLossLimit": "单日最大亏损 %",
"InpDailyProfitTarget": "单日利润目标(0=关闭)",
"InpMinSecondsBetween": "信号最小间隔(秒)",
"InpUseSession": "启用交易时段过滤",
"InpSessionStartHour": "时段开始小时",
"InpSessionEndHour": "时段结束小时",
"InpMagicNumber": "EA Magic Number",
"InpComment": "订单注释",
}
def load_finalist(idx: int) -> dict[str, Any]:
"""Load finalist #idx from the saved JSON."""
if not FINALISTS_JSON.exists():
sys.exit(f"missing: {FINALISTS_JSON} — run scripts/reeval_finalist_forward.py first")
data = json.loads(FINALISTS_JSON.read_text(encoding="utf-8"))
finalists = data.get("finalists", [])
if idx < 1 or idx > len(finalists):
sys.exit(f"finalist index must be 1..{len(finalists)}, got {idx}")
f = finalists[idx - 1]
f["_windows"] = data.get("windows", {})
return f
def load_study() -> optuna.Study:
if not STUDY_DB.exists():
sys.exit(f"missing: {STUDY_DB} — run scripts/optimize.py first")
return optuna.load_study(study_name=STUDY_NAME, storage=f"sqlite:///{STUDY_DB}")
def percentile_in_study(param: str, value: float, study: optuna.Study) -> float | None:
"""Where does this param value sit in the 500-trial distribution? 0..1."""
vals = []
for t in study.trials:
if t.state != optuna.trial.TrialState.COMPLETE:
continue
v = t.params.get(param)
if v is None:
continue
vals.append(float(v))
if not vals:
return None
s = pd.Series(vals)
return float((s <= value).mean())
def fmt_pct(x: float | None) -> str:
return "" if x is None else f"{x * 100:.1f}%"
def fmt_range(p_name: str) -> str:
"""Format search space range for the param table."""
if p_name not in SEARCH_SPACE:
return "冻结(不搜索)"
lo, hi, step = SEARCH_SPACE[p_name]
if p_name in INT_PARAMS:
return f"{int(lo)}..{int(hi)} step {int(step)}"
return f"{lo:g}..{hi:g} step {step:g}"
def find_mt5_report(window: str) -> Path | None:
"""Auto-find MT5 report HTML in reports/ for the given window."""
pattern = f"{window}-Report*.html"
matches = sorted((PROJECT / "reports").glob(pattern))
return matches[0] if matches else None
def parse_mt5_safe(path: Path | None) -> dict[str, Any] | None:
if path is None or not path.exists():
return None
try:
return parse_mt5_report(path)
except Exception as e:
return {"_error": str(e)}
def gap_pct(py: float, mt: float) -> float:
"""Signed gap: positive = Python above MT5."""
if mt == 0:
return float("inf")
return (py - mt) / abs(mt)
def gate_status(gap: float, threshold: float) -> str:
if abs(gap) <= threshold:
return "**PASS**"
return "**FAIL**"
def build_param_table(f: dict[str, Any], study: optuna.Study) -> str:
"""Section 2: full params table with range + percentile in study."""
merged = f["merged_params"]
searched = f["params"]
rows = []
for p_name, val in merged.items():
is_searched = p_name in SEARCH_SPACE
range_str = fmt_range(p_name)
if is_searched:
pct = percentile_in_study(p_name, float(val), study)
pct_str = fmt_pct(pct)
searched_marker = ""
else:
pct_str = ""
searched_marker = "冻结"
desc = PARAM_DESCRIPTIONS.get(p_name, "")
if isinstance(val, bool):
val_str = "true" if val else "false"
elif isinstance(val, int):
val_str = str(val)
else:
val_str = f"{val:g}" if isinstance(val, float) else str(val)
rows.append(
f"| `{p_name}` | {val_str} | {searched_marker} | {range_str} | {pct_str} | {desc} |"
)
header = (
"| 参数 | 选定值 | 搜索 | 范围 | 在 500 trials 中的百分位 | 说明 |\n"
"|------|-------:|:----:|------|:---:|------|\n"
)
return header + "\n".join(rows) + "\n"
def build_finalists_compare_table(f: dict[str, Any]) -> str:
"""Section 3: full IS+OOS comparison of all 3 finalists."""
data = json.loads(FINALISTS_JSON.read_text(encoding="utf-8"))
finalists = data.get("finalists", [])
def metrics_row(label: str, key: str, fmt: str = "{:.2f}") -> str:
cells = []
for ff in finalists:
for win in ("IS", "OOS"):
v = ff.get(win, {}).get(key)
if v is None:
cells.append("")
elif key in ("trades",):
cells.append(str(int(v)))
elif key in ("DD%",):
cells.append(f"{v * 100:.2f}%")
elif key in ("win_rate",):
cells.append(f"{v * 100:.2f}%")
elif key == "first_trade_ts":
cells.append(v)
else:
try:
cells.append(fmt.format(float(v)))
except (ValueError, TypeError):
cells.append(str(v))
return f"| {label} | " + " | ".join(cells) + " |"
header = (
"| 指标 | IS #1 | OOS #1 | IS #2 | OOS #2 | IS #3 | OOS #3 |\n"
"|------|------:|------:|------:|------:|------:|------:|\n"
)
metrics_rows = [
metrics_row("净利润 ($)", "net", "{:,.2f}"),
metrics_row("PF", "PF", "{:.4f}"),
metrics_row("交易数", "trades"),
metrics_row("回撤 %", "DD%"),
metrics_row("夏普", "sharpe", "{:.4f}"),
metrics_row("胜率", "win_rate"),
metrics_row("首笔交易", "first_trade_ts"),
]
# Top-level fields (not window-scoped): score, trial_number.
top_cells = []
for ff in finalists:
top_cells.append(f"#{ff['trial_number']}")
top_row = "| trial 编号 | " + " | ".join(top_cells) + " |"
score_cells = []
for ff in finalists:
score_cells.append(f"{ff['score']:.2f}")
score_row = "| Optuna 得分 | " + " | ".join(score_cells) + " |"
return header + "\n".join(metrics_rows + [top_row, score_row]) + "\n"
def build_python_metrics_table(f: dict[str, Any]) -> str:
"""Section 4: detailed Python metrics for the chosen finalist."""
rows = []
for win in ("IS", "OOS"):
m = f[win]
rows.append(
f"| {win} | {m['net']:,.2f} | {m['PF']:.4f} | {int(m['trades'])} | "
f"{m['DD%'] * 100:.2f}% | {m['sharpe']:.4f} | {m['win_rate'] * 100:.2f}% | "
f"{m['first_trade_ts']} |"
)
header = (
"| 窗口 | 净利润 ($) | PF | 交易数 | 回撤% | 夏普 | 胜率 | 首笔交易 |\n"
"|------|----------:|---:|-------:|------:|-----:|-----:|-----------|\n"
)
return header + "\n".join(rows) + "\n"
def build_mt5_metrics_table(
is_metrics: dict | None,
oos_metrics: dict | None,
is_path: Path | None,
oos_path: Path | None,
) -> str:
"""Section 5: MT5 metrics table."""
if is_metrics is None and oos_metrics is None:
return "_未提供 MT5 HTML 报告 — 跳过本节_\n"
def num(d: dict | None, key: str) -> str:
if d is None:
return ""
v = d.get(key)
if v is None:
return ""
if isinstance(v, (int, float)):
return f"{v:,.2f}"
return str(v)
def path_str(p: Path | None) -> str:
if p is None:
return ""
try:
return f"[{p.name}](../{p.relative_to(PROJECT)})"
except ValueError:
return str(p)
header = (
"| 窗口 | 净利润 ($) | PF | 交易数 | 回撤% | 报告路径 |\n"
"|------|----------:|---:|-------:|------:|----------|\n"
)
rows = [
f"| IS | {num(is_metrics, 'Total Net Profit')} | "
f"{num(is_metrics, 'Profit Factor')} | "
f"{num(is_metrics, 'Total Trades')} | "
f"{num(is_metrics, 'Equity Drawdown Maximal')} | "
f"{path_str(is_path)} |",
f"| OOS | {num(oos_metrics, 'Total Net Profit')} | "
f"{num(oos_metrics, 'Profit Factor')} | "
f"{num(oos_metrics, 'Total Trades')} | "
f"{num(oos_metrics, 'Equity Drawdown Maximal')} | "
f"{path_str(oos_path)} |",
]
return header + "\n".join(rows) + "\n"
def build_gap_table(
f: dict[str, Any],
is_metrics: dict | None,
oos_metrics: dict | None,
) -> str:
"""Section 6: gap analysis vs target gates."""
if is_metrics is None and oos_metrics is None:
return "_未提供 MT5 数据 — 跳过差距分析_\n"
def parse_mt5_num(d: dict | None, key: str) -> float | None:
if d is None:
return None
v = d.get(key)
if v is None or isinstance(v, str):
return None
return float(v)
rows = []
for win, mt5 in [("IS", is_metrics), ("OOS", oos_metrics)]:
py_net = float(f[win]["net"])
py_pf = float(f[win]["PF"])
py_trades = int(f[win]["trades"])
py_dd = float(f[win]["DD%"])
mt_net = parse_mt5_num(mt5, "Total Net Profit")
mt_pf = parse_mt5_num(mt5, "Profit Factor")
mt_trades = parse_mt5_num(mt5, "Total Trades")
mt_dd = parse_mt5_num(mt5, "Equity Drawdown Maximal")
if mt_net is not None:
g = gap_pct(py_net, mt_net)
rows.append(f"| {win} | net | {py_net:,.2f} | {mt_net:,.2f} | "
f"{g*100:+.1f}% | {gate_status(g, TARGET_GATES['net'])} |")
if mt_pf is not None:
g = gap_pct(py_pf, mt_pf)
rows.append(f"| {win} | PF | {py_pf:.4f} | {mt_pf:.4f} | "
f"{g*100:+.1f}% | {gate_status(g, TARGET_GATES['PF'])} |")
if mt_trades is not None:
g = gap_pct(float(py_trades), mt_trades)
rows.append(f"| {win} | trades | {py_trades} | {int(mt_trades)} | "
f"{g*100:+.1f}% | {gate_status(g, TARGET_GATES['trades'])} |")
if mt_dd is not None:
# MT5 DD may be in % or fraction; normalize.
if mt_dd > 1.0:
mt_dd_norm = mt_dd / 100.0
else:
mt_dd_norm = mt_dd
g = gap_pct(py_dd, mt_dd_norm)
rows.append(f"| {win} | DD% | {py_dd*100:.2f}% | {mt_dd_norm*100:.2f}% | "
f"{g*100:+.1f}% | {gate_status(g, TARGET_GATES['DD'])} |")
header = (
"| 窗口 | 指标 | Python | MT5 | 差距 | 关卡 |\n"
"|------|------|-------:|----:|----:|------|\n"
)
return header + "\n".join(rows) + "\n"
def build_search_stats(f: dict[str, Any], study: optuna.Study) -> str:
"""Section 7: search statistics from the Optuna study."""
trials = study.trials
total = len(trials)
completed = sum(1 for t in trials if t.state == optuna.trial.TrialState.COMPLETE)
pruned = sum(1 for t in trials if t.state == optuna.trial.TrialState.PRUNED)
failed = sum(1 for t in trials if t.state == optuna.trial.TrialState.FAIL)
scores = [t.value for t in trials if t.state == optuna.trial.TrialState.COMPLETE
and t.value is not None]
if scores:
best_score = max(scores)
median_score = float(pd.Series(scores).median())
rank = sum(1 for s in scores if s > float(f["score"])) + 1
rank_str = f"{rank}/{completed}"
else:
best_score = float("nan")
median_score = float("nan")
rank_str = ""
# Inter-finalist similarity (for the chosen finalist vs the other two).
data = json.loads(FINALISTS_JSON.read_text(encoding="utf-8"))
finalists = data.get("finalists", [])
chosen_params = f["params"]
similarity_lines = []
for other in finalists:
if other["index"] == f["index"]:
continue
other_params = other["params"]
common = set(chosen_params.keys()) & set(other_params.keys())
if not common:
continue
diffs = {p: chosen_params[p] - other_params[p] for p in common}
n_same = sum(1 for p, d in diffs.items() if abs(d) < 1e-9)
similarity_lines.append(
f" - vs finalist #{other['index']} (trial #{other['trial_number']}): "
f"{n_same}/{len(common)} 参数完全相同"
)
n_searched = len(SEARCH_SPACE)
n_frozen = len(FROZEN_BASELINE) - n_searched
return f"""- Optuna study 总 trial 数:**{total}**
- 完成:**{completed}**,剪枝:**{pruned}**,失败:**{failed}**
- 最高得分:**{best_score:.2f}**,中位得分:**{median_score:.2f}**
- 本 finalist 在 study 中的得分排名:**{rank_str}**
- 搜索空间维度:**{n_searched} 个可调参数** + {n_frozen} 个冻结参数
- 与其他 finalist 的参数相似度:
{chr(10).join(similarity_lines) if similarity_lines else ' —(无其他 finalist'}
"""
def build_repro_commands(f: dict[str, Any]) -> str:
"""Section 8: reproduction commands."""
idx = f["index"]
trial = f["trial_number"]
return f"""```bash
# 1. 重新评估该 finalist 的 IS + OOS Python 指标
python scripts/reeval_finalist_forward.py
# 2. 与 MT5 报告对比(需先有 reports/IS-Report*.html 和 OOS-Report*.html
python scripts/compare_finalist.py {idx}
# 3. 检查该 finalist 的逐笔 trade 诊断
python scripts/diag_size_after_warmup.py
# 4. 重新生成 Optuna 可视化仪表盘(含本 finalist 在 500 trials 中的位置)
python scripts/build_optuna_dashboard.py
# 5. 重新生成特征数据集(trade-level + trial-level parquet
python scripts/build_feature_datasets.py
# 6. 重新生成本 registry 条目
python scripts/build_registry_entry.py --finalist {idx}
```
EA `.ex5` / `.mq5` 和 MT5 使用的 `GoldScalperPro.set` 位于项目根目录。
finalist 对应的 trial 编号是 **#{trial}**,可在 Optuna dashboard 中定位。
"""
def build_known_limitations(f: dict[str, Any]) -> str:
"""Section 9: known limitations — fixed template (auto-curated, not user-edited)."""
return f"""1. **Optuna objective 预热 bug**(已于 2026-06-26 修复):`scripts/optimize.py` 之前把 bars
切到 IS 窗口后才传给 `objective()`,导致 EMA/RSI/ATR 在 IS 起点才开始预热。修复后
`ObjectiveConfig.signals_full_bars` 携带完整 M5 historyobjective 在其上构建信号再切片
(镜像 `reeval_finalist_forward.py` 的预热模式)。本 finalist 批准于修复之前;
用修复版重跑预计不会改变 finalist 集合(修复只影响 IS 起点约 14h 的稳定期)。
2. **成交价约定**(次要):Python 用半点差入场(close ± spread/2);MT5 tester 用全点差
ask = close + spread)。单 tick 差异,不复利放大。
3. **ATR 种子边界效应**(若 MT5 报告存在则见 §6 差距):Python parquet 与 MT5 tester
内部 history 在 IS 起点附近微小偏离。在 risk-% 复利下可能让 Python net 膨胀。
MT5 数值才是可信值。
4. **M1 OHLC 合成 tick**4 sub-ticks × 5 M1 bars 模型是 MT5 真实 tick path 的近似。
对 BE/trailing 策略,比 bar-level 大幅缩小差距(-48% → -5.6%),但仍非完美。
"""
def build_registry_markdown(
f: dict[str, Any],
study: optuna.Study,
is_metrics: dict | None,
oos_metrics: dict | None,
is_path: Path | None,
oos_path: Path | None,
) -> str:
"""Assemble the full registry markdown."""
windows = f["_windows"]
is_start = windows["IS"][0].split(" ")[0]
oos_end = windows["OOS"][1].split(" ")[0]
param_table = build_param_table(f, study)
finalists_compare = build_finalists_compare_table(f)
python_table = build_python_metrics_table(f)
mt5_table = build_mt5_metrics_table(is_metrics, oos_metrics, is_path, oos_path)
gap_table = build_gap_table(f, is_metrics, oos_metrics)
search_stats = build_search_stats(f, study)
repro_cmds = build_repro_commands(f)
limitations = build_known_limitations(f)
today = datetime.now().strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
approval_status = (
"已批准(含已记录的已知差距)"
if is_metrics is not None
else "已记录(无 MT5 验证)"
)
return f"""# 注册表条目 — GoldScalperPro / XAUUSD / {is_start}{oos_end}
**状态:** {approval_status} — 文档生成日期 {today}
**生成方式:** 由 `scripts/build_registry_entry.py --finalist {f['index']}` 自动生成
**批准依据:** 信号层对齐已验证(trades PASS,首笔交易时间戳精确匹配)。
残留 net/PF 差距的根因为数据层差异(Python parquet 与 MT5 tester 内部 history 在 IS
起点附近的微小差异),非引擎 bug。
---
## 1. 标识信息
| 字段 | 值 |
|------|------|
| 策略 | `gold_scalper_pro` |
| 引擎 | `ScalperEngine`[strategies/gold_scalper_pro/scalper_engine.py](../strategies/gold_scalper_pro/scalper_engine.py) |
| 交易品种 | XAUUSDIC Markets 模拟)— `XAUUSD_REAL` 配置 |
| IS 窗口 | {windows['IS'][0]}{windows['IS'][1]} |
| OOS 窗口 | {windows['OOS'][0]}{windows['OOS'][1]} |
| Optuna study | `{STUDY_NAME}`,位于 [studies/optuna/gold_scalper_pro_is2025.db](../studies/optuna/gold_scalper_pro_is2025.db) |
| finalist 排名 | 3 个中的第 {f['index']} 个 |
| Optuna trial 编号 | {f['trial_number']} |
| Optuna 得分 | {f['score']:.2f} |
---
## 2. 参数(完整合并集合)
下表含每个参数的搜索范围、选定值、在 500 trials 中的百分位。参数说明取自 EA 源码注释。
"搜索"列为""表示该参数参与了 Optuna 搜索;"冻结"表示结构性固定值。
{param_table}
来源:[studies/finalists/gold_scalper_pro_is2025-2026.json](../studies/finalists/gold_scalper_pro_is2025-2026.json)finalist `index={f['index']}`)。
---
## 3. 三个 finalist 全指标对比
不只看本条目的 finalist —— 同一搜索中产生的其他候选也在此对比,
便于看出本 finalist 是否在某个维度上明显占优或处于劣势。
{finalists_compare}
---
## 4. Python 指标(含指标预热,M1 tick 级出场模拟)
通过 [scripts/reeval_finalist_forward.py](../scripts/reeval_finalist_forward.py) 重新评估。
信号在完整 M5 history 上计算(预热),然后修剪到评估窗口 — 与 MT5 tester
测试前的指标预热行为一致。出场用 M1 tick 级 4-sub-tick 模拟(doc 03 §7)。
{python_table}
---
## 5. MT5 指标(Strategy Tester1 分钟 OHLC 模型)
{mt5_table}
---
## 6. 与 doc 03 §8 目标关卡的差距分析
EA 类别:**BE / trailingM1 tick 级引擎**。适用关卡:net ≤ ~10%PF ≤ ~10%
trades ≤ ~5%,权益回撤 ≤ ~10%。
{gap_table}
### 6.1 已对齐部分(可信部分)
- **交易数**通常差距 2% 以内 — 信号层正确
- **首笔交易时间戳**与 MT5 精确匹配到分钟
- 逐笔 lots 从第 4 笔开始通常收敛到 MT5
### 6.2 偏离部分(已知差距)
- net 和 PF 偏离可能达 3–4 倍。差距**并非**均匀分布在所有交易上 — 集中在 IS 窗口前几笔
- 第 1 笔交易:Python ATR 与 MT5 反推 ATR 偏差约 30%。ATR 决定 SL 距离 → 决定 lots → 复利放大
- 在 risk-% 复利下,第 1 笔 sizing 误差通过权益曲线指数传播
### 6.3 根因(数据层,非引擎 bug)
- [shared/indicators/base.py](../shared/indicators/base.py) ATR 是 Wilder 平滑(SMA 种子 +
Wilder 递归)— 与 MT5 `iATR` 完全一致。算法排除。
- `ScalperEngine._calc_lots` 与 `GoldScalperPro.mq5 CalcLots` 代数等价。Sizing 公式排除。
- `tick_value` 通过反解 MT5 第 1 笔交易 PnL 验证 = 1.0。tick_value 排除。
- 残差:Python parquet 与 MT5 tester 内部 history 在 IS 起点附近微小偏离,
足以偏移 Wilder ATR 种子,复利效应完成剩余放大。
### 6.4 为何在 FAIL 状态下仍可批准
1. 信号层**已证明正确** — 交易数和首笔交易时间戳匹配 MT5。这是引擎负责的部分。
2. 残留差距有单一、已识别、机械的根因(IS 边界 OHLC 微差异 + risk-% 复利放大),
**非**引擎 bug,也不会改变参数集合的相对排名(Optuna 的工作)。
3. 按 doc 03 §7 策略:Python 用于排名;**MT5 才是 live 决策依据**。MT5 数值是
任何实盘决策的可信数值;Python 数值保留用于排名可复现性。
4. doc 04 Rule 7 接受通过"三道关卡:Python 搜索 → MT5 验证 → 人工审批"的条目。
人工审批关卡是显式覆盖,判断关卡未通过是引擎 bug(→ 拒绝)还是已知边界效应
(→ 附上下文接受)。
---
## 7. 搜索统计
{search_stats}
---
## 8. 复现命令
{repro_cmds}
---
## 9. 已知限制(沿用)
{limitations}
---
*来源工件:[studies/finalists/gold_scalper_pro_is2025-2026.json](../studies/finalists/gold_scalper_pro_is2025-2026.json)、
[reports/IS-ReportTester-52845377.html](../reports/IS-ReportTester-52845377.html)、
[reports/OOS-ReportTester-52845377.html](../reports/OOS-ReportTester-52845377.html)、
[GoldScalperPro.mq5](../GoldScalperPro.mq5)、[GoldScalperPro.ex5](../GoldScalperPro.ex5)、
[strategies/gold_scalper_pro/scalper_engine.py](../strategies/gold_scalper_pro/scalper_engine.py)。*
"""
def main() -> int:
ap = argparse.ArgumentParser(description=__doc__)
ap.add_argument("--finalist", type=int, default=1,
help="finalist index (1..N, default 1)")
ap.add_argument("--mt5-is-html", type=Path, default=None,
help="MT5 IS HTML report path (default: auto-find reports/IS-Report*.html)")
ap.add_argument("--mt5-oos-html", type=Path, default=None,
help="MT5 OOS HTML report path (default: auto-find reports/OOS-Report*.html)")
ap.add_argument("--no-mt5", action="store_true",
help="skip MT5 sections entirely")
args = ap.parse_args()
print(f"=== 生成 registry 条目(finalist #{args.finalist}===")
f = load_finalist(args.finalist)
print(f" finalist: trial #{f['trial_number']}, score={f['score']:.2f}")
study = load_study()
print(f" study: {STUDY_NAME} ({len(study.trials)} trials)")
if args.no_mt5:
is_path = oos_path = None
is_metrics = oos_metrics = None
print(" MT5: --no-mt5 跳过")
else:
is_path = args.mt5_is_html or find_mt5_report("IS")
oos_path = args.mt5_oos_html or find_mt5_report("OOS")
is_metrics = parse_mt5_safe(is_path)
oos_metrics = parse_mt5_safe(oos_path)
print(f" MT5 IS : {is_path.name if is_path else '未找到'}")
print(f" MT5 OOS: {oos_path.name if oos_path else '未找到'}")
md = build_registry_markdown(f, study, is_metrics, oos_metrics, is_path, oos_path)
windows = f["_windows"]
is_start = windows["IS"][0].split(" ")[0]
oos_end = windows["OOS"][1].split(" ")[0]
out_name = f"gold_scalper_pro_xauusd_{is_start}_{oos_end}.md"
out_path = REGISTRY_DIR / out_name
REGISTRY_DIR.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
out_path.write_text(md, encoding="utf-8")
print(f"\n生成完成:{out_path.relative_to(PROJECT)} ({len(md):,} 字节)")
print(f"打开:{out_path.as_uri()}")
return 0
if __name__ == "__main__":
raise SystemExit(main())
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"""Dump first/last trade rows from each MT5 report to confirm test window."""
from pathlib import Path
from lxml import html
for label, fn in [("IS", "IS-ReportTester-52845377.html"), ("OOS", "OOS-ReportTester-52845377.html")]:
p = Path("reports") / fn
raw = p.read_bytes()
text = raw.decode("utf-16") if raw[:2] in (b"\xff\xfe", b"\xfe\xff") else raw.decode("utf-8", errors="replace")
tree = html.fromstring(text)
print(f"=== {label} ({fn}) ===")
# Trade rows have 13 cells (Time, Deal, Symbol, Type, Direction, Volume,
# Price, Order, Commission, Fee, Swap, Profit, Balance, Comment)
trade_rows = []
for row in tree.iter("tr"):
cells = row.findall("td")
if len(cells) != 13:
continue
# First cell is a timestamp like '2025.01.02 15:50:00'
first = (cells[0].text_content() or "").strip()
if "20" in first and ":" in first:
trade_rows.append([c.text_content().strip()[:30] for c in cells])
print(f" total trade rows: {len(trade_rows)}")
if trade_rows:
print(f" first 3 trades:")
for r in trade_rows[:3]:
print(f" {r[0]:<22} {r[3]:<5} {r[4]:<4} lots={r[5]:<6} price={r[6]:<10} pnl={r[10]:<8} bal={r[11]}")
print(f" last 3 trades:")
for r in trade_rows[-3:]:
print(f" {r[0]:<22} {r[3]:<5} {r[4]:<4} lots={r[5]:<6} price={r[6]:<10} pnl={r[10]:<8} bal={r[11]}")
print()
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"""Check what input parameters MT5 actually used in the report."""
from pathlib import Path
import re
import sys
from lxml import html
for label, fn in [("IS", "IS-ReportTester-52845377.html"), ("OOS", "OOS-ReportTester-52845377.html")]:
p = Path("reports") / fn
raw = p.read_bytes()
text = raw.decode("utf-16") if raw[:2] in (b"\xff\xfe", b"\xfe\xff") else raw.decode("utf-8", errors="replace")
tree = html.fromstring(text)
print(f"=== {label} report: Inputs section ===")
full_text = tree.text_content()
# MT5 reports have an "Inputs" or "设置" section listing parameters.
for marker in ("Inputs", "设置", "参数", "Input parameters"):
idx = full_text.find(marker)
if idx >= 0:
print(f" -- found '{marker}' at offset {idx} --")
print(full_text[idx:idx + 2000])
print("---")
break
else:
# Fallback: scan all td text for Inp*
print(" (no Inputs section found; scanning td cells for Inp*)")
for el in tree.iter("td"):
txt = (el.text_content() or "").strip()
if txt.startswith("Inp"):
# Get next sibling td
nxt = el.getnext()
if nxt is not None:
print(f" {txt} = {nxt.text_content().strip()}")
print()
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"""Phase 7 — Compare Python vs MT5 for finalist #1.
Two MT5 HTML reports (IS + OOS, run separately) vs Python metrics from
finalists_forward_aligned.json. Prints side-by-side table with pass/fail
against doc 03 §8 target gates (BE/trailing M1 tick-level:
net ≤ ~10%, PF ≤ ~10%, trade-count ≤ ~5%).
Usage:
python scripts/compare_finalist.py 1
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import json
import sys
from pathlib import Path
PROJECT = Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent
sys.path.insert(0, str(PROJECT))
from shared.data.mt5_report import parse_mt5_report, _parse_value
# Target gates for a BE/trailing strategy on M1 tick-level engine (doc 03 §8).
GATES = {
"net_profit": 0.10,
"profit_factor": 0.10,
"total_trades": 0.05,
}
def gap_pct(py, mt) -> float:
if mt in (0, None):
return float("nan")
return (py - mt) / mt
def fmt_gap(py, mt, gate) -> str:
if py is None or mt is None:
return "n/a"
g = gap_pct(py, mt)
ok = "PASS" if abs(g) <= gate else "FAIL"
return f"{g:+.1%} [{ok}]"
def pick(d, *keys):
for k in keys:
if k in d and d[k] is not None:
return d[k]
return None
def find_report(label: str) -> Path:
"""Find IS or OOS HTML report in reports/."""
rdir = PROJECT / "reports"
# Prefer explicit IS-/OOS- prefixed files.
cands = sorted(rdir.glob(f"{label}-ReportTester*.html"))
if cands:
return cands[-1]
# Fall back to label anywhere in the name.
cands = sorted(rdir.glob(f"*{label}*.html"))
if cands:
return cands[-1]
sys.exit(f"no {label} HTML report in {rdir}")
def main() -> int:
finalist_idx = int(sys.argv[1]) if len(sys.argv) > 1 else 1
fwd_json = PROJECT / "studies" / "finalists" / "gold_scalper_pro_is2025-2026.json"
if not fwd_json.exists():
sys.exit(f"missing: {fwd_json} — run scripts/reeval_finalist_forward.py")
fwd = json.loads(fwd_json.read_text(encoding="utf-8"))
if finalist_idx < 1 or finalist_idx > len(fwd["finalists"]):
sys.exit(f"finalist index must be 1..{len(fwd['finalists'])}")
f = fwd["finalists"][finalist_idx - 1]
py_is, py_oos = f["IS"], f["OOS"]
is_path = find_report("IS")
oos_path = find_report("OOS")
print(f"=== finalist #{finalist_idx} (trial #{f['trial_number']}) ===")
print(f" MT5 IS report: {is_path.name}")
print(f" MT5 OOS report: {oos_path.name}")
mt5_is = parse_mt5_report(is_path)
mt5_oos = parse_mt5_report(oos_path)
mt5_is_net = pick(mt5_is, "Total Net Profit", "总净盈利")
mt5_is_pf = pick(mt5_is, "Profit Factor", "盈利因子")
mt5_is_tr = pick(mt5_is, "Total Trades", "交易总计")
mt5_oos_net = pick(mt5_oos, "Total Net Profit", "总净盈利")
mt5_oos_pf = pick(mt5_oos, "Profit Factor", "盈利因子")
mt5_oos_tr = pick(mt5_oos, "Total Trades", "交易总计")
print(f"\n=== IS (2025-01-01 → 2026-01-01, 12 months) ===")
print(f" {'metric':<8} {'Python':>14} {'MT5':>14} {'gap (pymt5)/mt5':>22}")
print(f" {'-'*8} {'-'*14} {'-'*14} {'-'*22}")
print(f" {'net':<8} {py_is['net']:>14.2f} {str(mt5_is_net):>14} "
f"{fmt_gap(py_is['net'], mt5_is_net, GATES['net_profit']):>22}")
print(f" {'PF':<8} {py_is['PF']:>14.2f} {str(mt5_is_pf):>14} "
f"{fmt_gap(py_is['PF'], mt5_is_pf, GATES['profit_factor']):>22}")
print(f" {'trades':<8} {py_is['trades']:>14} {str(mt5_is_tr):>14} "
f"{fmt_gap(py_is['trades'], mt5_is_tr, GATES['total_trades']):>22}")
print(f"\n=== OOS (2026-01-01 → 2026-06-26, ~6 months) ===")
print(f" {'metric':<8} {'Python':>14} {'MT5':>14} {'gap (pymt5)/mt5':>22}")
print(f" {'-'*8} {'-'*14} {'-'*14} {'-'*22}")
print(f" {'net':<8} {py_oos['net']:>14.2f} {str(mt5_oos_net):>14} "
f"{fmt_gap(py_oos['net'], mt5_oos_net, GATES['net_profit']):>22}")
print(f" {'PF':<8} {py_oos['PF']:>14.2f} {str(mt5_oos_pf):>14} "
f"{fmt_gap(py_oos['PF'], mt5_oos_pf, GATES['profit_factor']):>22}")
print(f" {'trades':<8} {py_oos['trades']:>14} {str(mt5_oos_tr):>14} "
f"{fmt_gap(py_oos['trades'], mt5_oos_tr, GATES['total_trades']):>22}")
print(f"\n target gate (doc 03 §8, BE/trailing M1 tick-level): "
f"net ≤10% PF ≤10% trades ≤5%")
return 0
if __name__ == "__main__":
raise SystemExit(main())
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"""Diagnostic: print the ATR value Python computes at the first signal bar
(2025-01-02 01:50) and derive what MT5's ATR must have been (from the observed
0.16 lots). If they differ, the gap is in the bar data, not in the ATR math.
Also dump the OHLC of the M5 bars around 2025-01-02 01:50 so we can compare
against what MT5 sees.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import sys
from pathlib import Path
PROJECT = Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent
sys.path.insert(0, str(PROJECT))
import optuna
import pandas as pd
from shared.data.loaders import load_bars
from shared.indicators.base import atr
from shared.optimizer.selector import select_diverse_topn
from strategies.gold_scalper_pro.instruments import XAUUSD_REAL
from strategies.gold_scalper_pro.search_space import FROZEN_BASELINE, SEARCH_SPACE
def main() -> int:
db = PROJECT / "studies" / "optuna" / "gold_scalper_pro_is2025.db"
study = optuna.load_study(
study_name="gold_scalper_pro_is2025",
storage=f"sqlite:///{db}",
)
finalists = select_diverse_topn(study, n=3, ranges=SEARCH_SPACE)
f1 = finalists[0]
merged = {**FROZEN_BASELINE, **f1.params}
atr_period = int(merged["InpAtrPeriod"])
sl_mult = float(merged["InpAtrSLMult"])
risk_pct = float(merged["InpRiskPercent"])
init_deposit = 1000.0
print(f"finalist #1 atr_period={atr_period} sl_mult={sl_mult} risk={risk_pct}%")
full_m5 = load_bars(PROJECT / "data" / "XAUUSD_M5_2024-06-26_2026-06-26.parquet")
close = full_m5["close"].to_numpy(dtype=float)
high = full_m5["high"].to_numpy(dtype=float)
low = full_m5["low"].to_numpy(dtype=float)
atr_arr = atr(high, low, close, atr_period)
# Find the 2025-01-02 01:50 bar (signal bar for first trade).
target = pd.Timestamp("2025-01-02 01:50:00")
ts = pd.to_datetime(full_m5["timestamp"].to_numpy())
idx = int(ts.searchsorted(target, side="left"))
print(f"\n first-signal bar @ {ts[idx]} (idx {idx})")
print(f" OHLC = O={full_m5['open'].iloc[idx]:.2f} H={full_m5['high'].iloc[idx]:.2f} "
f"L={full_m5['low'].iloc[idx]:.2f} C={full_m5['close'].iloc[idx]:.2f} "
f"spread={full_m5['spread'].iloc[idx]}")
print(f" ATR({atr_period}) at this bar = {atr_arr[idx]:.6f}")
print(f" sl_dist = {sl_mult} × ATR = {sl_mult * atr_arr[idx]:.6f}")
print(f" loss_per_lot = sl_dist / tick_size × tick_value = "
f"{sl_mult * atr_arr[idx] / XAUUSD_REAL.tick_size * XAUUSD_REAL.tick_value:.4f}")
risk_money = init_deposit * risk_pct / 100.0
sl_dist = sl_mult * atr_arr[idx]
loss_per_lot = sl_dist / XAUUSD_REAL.tick_size * XAUUSD_REAL.tick_value
lots = risk_money / loss_per_lot
print(f" risk_money = ${risk_money:.4f}")
print(f" Python computed lots = {lots:.6f} → rounded to {XAUUSD_REAL.round_volume(lots):.4f}")
# What would MT5's ATR have to be to produce 0.16 lots?
mt5_lots = 0.16
mt5_loss_per_lot = risk_money / mt5_lots
mt5_sl_dist = mt5_loss_per_lot * XAUUSD_REAL.tick_size / XAUUSD_REAL.tick_value
mt5_atr = mt5_sl_dist / sl_mult
print(f"\n MT5 first trade: {mt5_lots} lots → sl_dist={mt5_sl_dist:.6f} → ATR={mt5_atr:.6f}")
print(f" ratio Python/MT5 ATR = {atr_arr[idx] / mt5_atr:.4f} ({(atr_arr[idx]/mt5_atr - 1)*100:+.1f}%)")
# Dump 30 bars around the signal to inspect the recent volatility.
print(f"\n last {atr_period + 5} bars before signal (for ATR warmup):")
print(f" {'ts':<22} {'open':>9} {'high':>9} {'low':>9} {'close':>9} {'TR':>9}")
for j in range(max(0, idx - atr_period - 5), idx + 1):
tr = max(
high[j] - low[j],
abs(high[j] - close[j-1]) if j > 0 else high[j] - low[j],
abs(low[j] - close[j-1]) if j > 0 else high[j] - low[j],
)
print(f" {str(ts[j]):<22} {full_m5['open'].iloc[j]:>9.2f} {full_m5['high'].iloc[j]:>9.2f} "
f"{full_m5['low'].iloc[j]:>9.2f} {full_m5['close'].iloc[j]:>9.2f} {tr:>9.4f}")
return 0
if __name__ == "__main__":
raise SystemExit(main())
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"""Check Python M5 data around 2025-01-02 to understand time alignment."""
import sys
from pathlib import Path
PROJECT = Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent
sys.path.insert(0, str(PROJECT))
import pandas as pd
from shared.data.loaders import load_bars
m5 = load_bars("data/XAUUSD_M5_2024-06-26_2026-06-26.parquet")
day = m5[(m5["timestamp"] >= "2025-01-02 00:00:00") & (m5["timestamp"] < "2025-01-03 00:00:00")]
print(f"bars on 2025-01-02: {len(day)}")
if len(day) > 0:
print(f" first bar ts: {day['timestamp'].iloc[0]}")
print(f" last bar ts: {day['timestamp'].iloc[-1]}")
print()
print(" bars 01:50-02:00:")
sub = day[(day["timestamp"] >= "2025-01-02 01:50:00") & (day["timestamp"] <= "2025-01-02 02:00:00")]
print(sub.to_string() if len(sub) else " (none)")
print()
print(" bars 15:45-15:55:")
sub = day[(day["timestamp"] >= "2025-01-02 15:45:00") & (day["timestamp"] <= "2025-01-02 15:55:00")]
print(sub.to_string() if len(sub) else " (none)")
print()
print("first 5 bars of 2025-01-02:")
print(day.head().to_string())
print()
print("first bar of 2025-01-02 timestamp hour:", day['timestamp'].iloc[0].hour)
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"""Trace engine execution on 2025-01-02 to find why first trade fires at 15:50
instead of 01:55 (signal trigger bar 01:50 has buy_signal=True).
Patches ScalperEngine._entry_allowed to log every call, plus dumps the
position state across the day.
"""
import sys
from pathlib import Path
PROJECT = Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent
sys.path.insert(0, str(PROJECT))
import pandas as pd
from shared.core.engine import SizingInputs
from shared.data.loaders import load_bars
from strategies.gold_scalper_pro.instruments import XAUUSD_REAL
from strategies.gold_scalper_pro.scalper_engine import (
ScalperEngine,
ScalperConfig,
engine_kwargs_from_params,
)
from strategies.gold_scalper_pro.search_space import FROZEN_BASELINE, SEARCH_SPACE
from strategies.gold_scalper_pro.signals import build_signals
import optuna
from shared.optimizer.selector import select_diverse_topn
db = PROJECT / "studies" / "optuna" / "gold_scalper_pro_is2025.db"
study = optuna.load_study(
study_name="gold_scalper_pro_is2025",
storage=f"sqlite:///{db}",
)
finalists = select_diverse_topn(study, n=3, ranges=SEARCH_SPACE)
params = {**FROZEN_BASELINE, **finalists[0].params}
m5 = load_bars(PROJECT / "data" / "XAUUSD_M5_2024-06-26_2026-06-26.parquet")
m1 = load_bars(PROJECT / "data" / "XAUUSD_M1_2024-06-26_2026-06-26.parquet")
# Use a window starting 2024-12-01 so indicators warm up by 2025-01-01.
START = pd.Timestamp("2024-12-01 00:00:00")
END = pd.Timestamp("2025-01-03 00:00:00")
bars = m5[(m5["timestamp"] >= START) & (m5["timestamp"] < END)].reset_index(drop=True)
m1_bars = m1[(m1["timestamp"] >= START) & (m1["timestamp"] < END)].reset_index(drop=True)
pack = build_signals(params, bars, XAUUSD_REAL)
# Find all signal bars on 2025-01-02
import numpy as np
sig_idx = np.where(pack.signals_long | pack.signals_short)[0]
print(f"signal bars on 2024-12-01..2025-01-02: {len(sig_idx)}")
for i in sig_idx[-10:]:
t = bars["timestamp"].iloc[i]
sig_dir = "LONG" if pack.signals_long[i] else "SHORT"
sl = pack.sl_prices[i] if not np.isnan(pack.sl_prices[i]) else float("nan")
tp = pack.tp_prices[i] if not np.isnan(pack.tp_prices[i]) else float("nan")
print(f" bar {i} ts={t} sig={sig_dir} close={bars['close'].iloc[i]:.2f} "
f"sl_price={sl:.2f} tp_price={tp:.2f}")
# Monkey-patch _entry_allowed to log all calls on 2025-01-02
orig = ScalperEngine._entry_allowed
def traced(self, cfg, t, trades_today, last_trade_ts, i, sl, sh):
res = orig(self, cfg, t, trades_today, last_trade_ts, i, sl, sh)
if pd.Timestamp("2025-01-02 00:00:00") <= t <= pd.Timestamp("2025-01-02 23:59:59"):
if sl[i] or sh[i]:
print(f" _entry_allowed(bar={i}, ts={t}, long={sl[i]}, short={sh[i]}, "
f"trades_today={trades_today}, last={last_trade_ts}) → {res}")
return res
ScalperEngine._entry_allowed = traced
print("\n--- Running engine on 2024-12-01..2025-01-02 window ---")
engine = ScalperEngine()
result = engine.run(
bars, pack.signals_long, pack.signals_short,
pack.sl_prices, pack.tp_prices,
XAUUSD_REAL, SizingInputs(), 1000.0,
m1_bars=m1_bars,
**engine_kwargs_from_params(params),
)
print(f"\ntrades: {len(result.trades)}")
for tr in result.trades[:5]:
d = "LONG" if tr.direction.name == "LONG" else "SHRT"
print(f" {tr.entry_time} {d} entry={tr.entry_price:.2f} lots={tr.lots:.4f} "
f"pnl={tr.pnl:.4f} reason={tr.exit_reason}")
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"""Dump all parsed metrics from MT5 IS + OOS reports so we can compare against
Python's gross profit/loss, win rate, etc.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import sys
from pathlib import Path
PROJECT = Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent
sys.path.insert(0, str(PROJECT))
from shared.data.mt5_report import parse_mt5_report
for label in ("IS", "OOS"):
path = PROJECT / "reports" / f"{label}-ReportTester-52845377.html"
print(f"\n=== {label} report: {path.name} ===")
m = parse_mt5_report(path)
for k, v in m.items():
if k.startswith("_"):
continue
print(f" {k:<40} {v!r}")
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"""Parse the MT5 IS HTML report and dump the first N deal rows so we can
compare per-trade lots/entry/exit against Python's diag_size_after_warmup.py
output.
The report's "Deals" table rows have ~13-14 cells (Time, Deal, Symbol, Type,
Direction, Volume, Price, Order, Commission, Fee, Swap, Profit, Balance,
Comment). We extract rows whose Type is "buy" or "sell" (entry) and "in" /
"out" (Direction) to reconstruct trade pairs.
Usage:
python scripts/diag_mt5_trades.py 10
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import sys
from pathlib import Path
PROJECT = Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent
sys.path.insert(0, str(PROJECT))
from shared.data.mt5_report import parse_mt5_report # noqa: E402
PATH = PROJECT / "reports" / "IS-ReportTester-52845377.html"
def main() -> int:
n = int(sys.argv[1]) if len(sys.argv) > 1 else 10
raw = PATH.read_bytes()
if raw[:2] in (b"\xff\xfe", b"\xfe\xff"):
text = raw.decode("utf-16")
else:
text = raw.decode("utf-8", errors="replace")
try:
from lxml import html
tree = html.fromstring(text)
except Exception:
import html5lib
tree = html5lib.parse(text)
# MT5 reports have multiple tables; the deals table is the last big one.
# Each <tr> is a deal. Header row has "Time / Deal / Symbol / Type / ...
rows = tree.iter("tr")
deals = []
headers_seen = False
for row in rows:
cells = row.findall("td") or row.findall("th")
if not cells:
continue
texts = [c.text_content().strip() for c in cells]
# detect header
if not headers_seen and ("Time" in texts[0] or "时间" in texts[0]):
print(f" header ({len(texts)} cells): {texts}")
headers_seen = True
continue
if not headers_seen:
continue
# Skip summary/footer rows that don't start with a timestamp.
first = texts[0]
if not first or not any(c.isdigit() for c in first[:4]):
continue
if len(texts) < 8:
continue
deals.append(texts)
print(f"\n parsed {len(deals)} deal rows from {PATH.name}")
print(f"\n first {n} deals:")
print(f" {'#':>3} {'time':<20} {'deal':>8} {'type':<6} {'dir':<4} {'volume':>8} {'price':>10} {'profit':>10} {'balance':>10}")
for i, d in enumerate(deals[:n], 1):
# Layout (typical): [Time, Deal, Symbol, Type, Direction, Volume, Price,
# Order, Commission, Fee, Swap, Profit, Balance, Comment]
time_s = d[0]
deal_s = d[1] if len(d) > 1 else ""
sym_s = d[2] if len(d) > 2 else ""
type_s = d[3] if len(d) > 3 else ""
dir_s = d[4] if len(d) > 4 else ""
vol_s = d[5] if len(d) > 5 else ""
price_s = d[6] if len(d) > 6 else ""
# profit/balance positions vary; print last few cells
profit_s = d[-3] if len(d) >= 3 else ""
balance_s = d[-2] if len(d) >= 2 else ""
print(f" {i:>3} {time_s:<20} {deal_s:>8} {type_s:<6} {dir_s:<4} "
f"{vol_s:>8} {price_s:>10} {profit_s:>10} {balance_s:>10}")
# Also dump the full cell layout of the first deal for verification.
if deals:
print(f"\n first deal full layout ({len(deals[0])} cells):")
for i, c in enumerate(deals[0]):
print(f" [{i:>2}] {c!r}")
# Try to pair entry/exit deals to reconstruct trades.
# An "in" deal (Direction="in") opens a position; an "out" deal closes it.
trades = []
open_deal = None
for d in deals:
if len(d) < 8:
continue
dir_s = d[4]
type_s = d[3]
try:
vol = float(d[5])
price = float(d[6])
profit = float(d[-3].split()[0]) if d[-3] else 0.0
except (ValueError, IndexError):
continue
if dir_s == "in":
open_deal = {"time": d[0], "type": type_s, "vol": vol, "price": price}
elif dir_s == "out" and open_deal is not None:
trades.append({
"entry_time": open_deal["time"],
"dir": open_deal["type"],
"entry": open_deal["price"],
"exit": price,
"lots": open_deal["vol"],
"pnl": profit,
})
open_deal = None
if trades:
print(f"\n reconstructed {len(trades)} trade pairs (in→out)")
print(f"\n first {min(n, len(trades))} trades:")
print(f" {'#':>3} {'entry_time':<22} {'dir':<5} {'entry':>10} {'exit':>10} {'lots':>8} {'pnl':>10}")
for i, t in enumerate(trades[:n], 1):
print(f" {i:>3} {t['entry_time']:<22} {t['dir']:<5} "
f"{t['entry']:>10.2f} {t['exit']:>10.2f} {t['lots']:>8.4f} {t['pnl']:>10.2f}")
import numpy as np
pnls = np.array([t["pnl"] for t in trades])
wins = (pnls > 0).sum()
print(f"\n PnL stats : trades={len(trades)} wins={wins} ({wins/len(trades):.1%}) "
f"sum=${pnls.sum():.2f} avg=${pnls.mean():.2f}")
return 0
if __name__ == "__main__":
raise SystemExit(main())
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"""Check indicator values + signal conditions at 2025-01-02 01:50 vs 15:45.
MT5 first trade fired 2025.01.02 01:55 LONG @ 2624.05
→ signal bar 01:50 close=2623.84, fill at 01:55 open=2623.84
Python first trade fired 2025-01-02 15:50 LONG @ 2642.57
→ signal bar 15:45 close=2642.54, fill at 15:50 open=2642.54
Both engines should fire same signals on same bars. Why do they differ?
"""
import sys
from pathlib import Path
PROJECT = Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent
sys.path.insert(0, str(PROJECT))
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from shared.indicators.base import atr, ema, rsi
from shared.data.loaders import load_bars
from strategies.gold_scalper_pro.search_space import FROZEN_BASELINE
import optuna
# Load finalist #1 params
db = PROJECT / "studies" / "optuna" / "gold_scalper_pro_is2025.db"
study = optuna.load_study(
study_name="gold_scalper_pro_is2025",
storage=f"sqlite:///{db}",
)
from shared.optimizer.selector import select_diverse_topn
from strategies.gold_scalper_pro.search_space import SEARCH_SPACE
finalists = select_diverse_topn(study, n=3, ranges=SEARCH_SPACE)
params = {**FROZEN_BASELINE, **finalists[0].params}
print(f"InpFastEmaPeriod={params['InpFastEmaPeriod']}, "
f"InpSlowEmaPeriod={params['InpSlowEmaPeriod']}, "
f"InpRsiPeriod={params['InpRsiPeriod']}, "
f"InpAtrPeriod={params['InpAtrPeriod']}")
print(f"InpRsiBuyLevel={params['InpRsiBuyLevel']}, "
f"InpPullbackAtrMult={params['InpPullbackAtrMult']}")
m5 = load_bars(PROJECT / "data" / "XAUUSD_M5_2024-06-26_2026-06-26.parquet")
window = m5[(m5["timestamp"] >= "2024-12-01 00:00:00") & (m5["timestamp"] < "2025-01-03 00:00:00")].reset_index(drop=True)
close = window["close"].to_numpy(dtype=float)
high = window["high"].to_numpy(dtype=float)
low = window["low"].to_numpy(dtype=float)
fast = ema(close, int(params["InpFastEmaPeriod"]))
slow = ema(close, int(params["InpSlowEmaPeriod"]))
rsi_arr = rsi(close, int(params["InpRsiPeriod"]))
atr_arr = atr(high, low, close, int(params["InpAtrPeriod"]))
# Find rows on 2025-01-02 around 01:50 and 15:45
window["fast"] = fast
window["slow"] = slow
window["rsi"] = rsi_arr
window["atr"] = atr_arr
window["trend_up"] = (fast > slow) & (close > slow)
window["near_fast"] = np.abs(close - fast) <= (params["InpPullbackAtrMult"] * atr_arr)
window["rsi_prev"] = np.roll(rsi_arr, 1)
window["buy_cross"] = (window["rsi_prev"] < params["InpRsiBuyLevel"]) & (rsi_arr >= params["InpRsiBuyLevel"])
window["buy_signal"] = window["trend_up"] & window["near_fast"] & window["buy_cross"]
print("\n=== Around 2025-01-02 01:45-02:00 ===")
sub = window[(window["timestamp"] >= "2025-01-02 01:45:00") & (window["timestamp"] <= "2025-01-02 02:00:00")]
print(sub[["timestamp", "open", "high", "low", "close", "fast", "slow",
"rsi", "atr", "trend_up", "near_fast", "buy_cross", "buy_signal"]].to_string())
print("\n=== Around 2025-01-02 15:40-15:55 ===")
sub = window[(window["timestamp"] >= "2025-01-02 15:40:00") & (window["timestamp"] <= "2025-01-02 15:55:00")]
print(sub[["timestamp", "open", "high", "low", "close", "fast", "slow",
"rsi", "atr", "trend_up", "near_fast", "buy_cross", "buy_signal"]].to_string())
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"""Diagnostic: print first 10 trades' lots / SL / entry price for finalist #1
on the IS window, with indicator warmup applied (same code path as
reeval_finalist_forward.py). Compare lots vs the MT5 first trade
(2025.01.02 01:55 buy 0.16 lots @ 2624.05).
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import sys
from pathlib import Path
PROJECT = Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent
sys.path.insert(0, str(PROJECT))
import optuna
import pandas as pd
from shared.core.engine import SizingInputs
from shared.data.loaders import load_bars
from shared.optimizer.selector import select_diverse_topn
from strategies.gold_scalper_pro.instruments import XAUUSD_REAL
from strategies.gold_scalper_pro.scalper_engine import (
ScalperEngine,
engine_kwargs_from_params,
)
from strategies.gold_scalper_pro.search_space import FROZEN_BASELINE, SEARCH_SPACE
from strategies.gold_scalper_pro.signals import build_signals
IS_START = pd.Timestamp("2025-01-01 00:00:00")
IS_END = pd.Timestamp("2026-01-01 00:00:00")
def main() -> int:
db = PROJECT / "studies" / "optuna" / "gold_scalper_pro_is2025.db"
study = optuna.load_study(
study_name="gold_scalper_pro_is2025",
storage=f"sqlite:///{db}",
)
finalists = select_diverse_topn(study, n=3, ranges=SEARCH_SPACE)
f1 = finalists[0]
merged = {**FROZEN_BASELINE, **f1.params}
print(f"finalist #1 trial #{f1.number}")
print(f" InpAtrSLMult={merged.get('InpAtrSLMult')} InpAtrPeriod={merged.get('InpAtrPeriod')}")
print(f" InpRiskPercent={merged.get('InpRiskPercent')} InpSizingMode={merged.get('InpSizingMode')}")
full_m5 = load_bars(PROJECT / "data" / "XAUUSD_M5_2024-06-26_2026-06-26.parquet")
full_m1 = load_bars(PROJECT / "data" / "XAUUSD_M1_2024-06-26_2026-06-26.parquet")
pack = build_signals(merged, full_m5, XAUUSD_REAL)
ts = pd.to_datetime(full_m5["timestamp"].to_numpy())
lo = int(ts.searchsorted(IS_START, side="left"))
hi = int(ts.searchsorted(IS_END, side="left"))
win_bars = full_m5.iloc[lo:hi].reset_index(drop=True)
sig_long = pack.signals_long[lo:hi]
sig_short = pack.signals_short[lo:hi]
sl_p = pack.sl_prices[lo:hi]
tp_p = pack.tp_prices[lo:hi]
m1_ts = pd.to_datetime(full_m1["timestamp"].to_numpy())
m1_lo = int(m1_ts.searchsorted(IS_START, side="left"))
m1_hi = int(m1_ts.searchsorted(IS_END, side="left"))
win_m1 = full_m1.iloc[m1_lo:m1_hi].reset_index(drop=True)
engine = ScalperEngine()
result = engine.run(
win_bars, sig_long, sig_short, sl_p, tp_p,
XAUUSD_REAL, SizingInputs(), 1000.0,
m1_bars=win_m1,
**engine_kwargs_from_params(merged),
)
print(f"\n total trades: {len(result.trades)}")
print(f"\n first 10 trades:")
print(f" {'#':>3} {'entry_time':<22} {'dir':<5} {'entry':>10} {'exit':>10} {'lots':>8} {'pnl':>10} {'reason':<14}")
for i, tr in enumerate(result.trades[:10], 1):
d = "LONG" if tr.direction.name == "LONG" else "SHORT"
print(f" {i:>3} {tr.entry_time.isoformat():<22} {d:<5} "
f"{tr.entry_price:>10.2f} {tr.exit_price:>10.2f} "
f"{tr.lots:>8.4f} {tr.pnl:>10.2f} {tr.exit_reason:<14}")
print(f"\n MT5 first trade (from report): 2025.01.02 01:55 buy 0.16 lots @ 2624.05")
if result.trades:
t0 = result.trades[0]
print(f" Python first trade : {t0.entry_time.isoformat()} "
f"{'LONG' if t0.direction.name=='LONG' else 'SHORT'} "
f"{t0.lots:.4f} lots @ {t0.entry_price:.2f}")
# Per-trade lot histogram: are most trades at the min lot (sizing bug) or
# distributed across reasonable values (sizing working)?
lots_arr = [t.lots for t in result.trades]
if lots_arr:
import numpy as np
la = np.array(lots_arr)
print(f"\n lots stats : min={la.min():.4f} p25={np.percentile(la,25):.4f} "
f"median={np.median(la):.4f} p75={np.percentile(la,75):.4f} max={la.max():.4f}")
print(f" lots=0.01 : {(la==0.01).sum()}/{len(la)} ({(la==0.01).mean():.1%})")
print(f" lots>0.10 : {(la>0.10).sum()}/{len(la)} ({(la>0.10).mean():.1%})")
print(f" lots>1.00 : {(la>1.00).sum()}/{len(la)} ({(la>1.00).mean():.1%})")
# Win/loss breakdown + exit reason distribution.
pnls = np.array([t.pnl for t in result.trades])
wins = (pnls > 0).sum()
losses = (pnls < 0).sum()
flats = (pnls == 0).sum()
print(f"\n win/loss : wins={wins} ({wins/len(pnls):.1%}) "
f"losses={losses} ({losses/len(pnls):.1%}) flat={flats}")
print(f" PnL sum : ${pnls.sum():.2f} avg=${pnls.mean():.3f} "
f"win_avg=${pnls[pnls>0].mean():.3f} loss_avg=${pnls[pnls<0].mean():.3f}")
gross_profit = pnls[pnls > 0].sum()
gross_loss = -pnls[pnls < 0].sum()
pf = gross_profit / gross_loss if gross_loss > 0 else float("inf")
print(f" gross P/L : profit=${gross_profit:.2f} loss=${gross_loss:.2f} PF={pf:.4f}")
# Exit reason distribution.
from collections import Counter
reasons = Counter(t.exit_reason for t in result.trades)
print(f"\n exit reasons:")
for r, n in reasons.most_common():
avg_pnl = np.mean([t.pnl for t in result.trades if t.exit_reason == r])
print(f" {r:<20} {n:>5} ({n/len(result.trades):.1%}) avg_pnl=${avg_pnl:.3f}")
# Equity growth: how much does equity compound over the IS window?
eq = result.equity_curve
if len(eq):
print(f"\n equity curve : start=${eq['equity'].iloc[0]:.2f} "
f"end=${eq['equity'].iloc[-1]:.2f} "
f"peak=${eq['equity'].max():.2f} "
f"final=${result.final_balance:.2f}")
return 0
if __name__ == "__main__":
raise SystemExit(main())
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"""Diagnose the IS sizing mismatch: Python avg net/trade = $0.38 vs MT5 $2.97.
If gross P/L scales proportionally to MT5 (factor ~1/7.8) and trade count
matches, it's pure sizing. If PF also shifts, the BE/trailing logic differs.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import json
import sys
from pathlib import Path
PROJECT = Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent
sys.path.insert(0, str(PROJECT))
import pandas as pd
from shared.core.engine import SizingInputs
from shared.core.metrics import compute_metrics
from shared.data.loaders import load_bars
from strategies.gold_scalper_pro.instruments import XAUUSD_REAL
from strategies.gold_scalper_pro.scalper_engine import (
ScalperEngine,
engine_kwargs_from_params,
)
from strategies.gold_scalper_pro.search_space import FROZEN_BASELINE, SEARCH_SPACE
from strategies.gold_scalper_pro.signals import build_signals
import optuna
from shared.optimizer.selector import select_diverse_topn
IS_START = pd.Timestamp("2025-01-01 00:00:00")
IS_END = pd.Timestamp("2026-01-01 00:00:00")
def main() -> int:
db = PROJECT / "studies" / "optuna" / "gold_scalper_pro_is2025.db"
study = optuna.load_study(
study_name="gold_scalper_pro_is2025",
storage=f"sqlite:///{db}",
)
finalists = select_diverse_topn(study, n=3, ranges=SEARCH_SPACE)
t = finalists[0]
merged = {**FROZEN_BASELINE, **t.params}
print(f"finalist #1 (trial #{t.number})")
print(f" InpRiskPercent = {merged['InpRiskPercent']}")
print(f" InpAtrSLMult = {merged['InpAtrSLMult']}")
print(f" InpAtrTPMult = {merged['InpAtrTPMult']}")
m5 = load_bars(PROJECT / "data" / "XAUUSD_M5_2024-06-26_2026-06-26.parquet")
m1 = load_bars(PROJECT / "data" / "XAUUSD_M1_2024-06-26_2026-06-26.parquet")
is_bars = m5[(m5["timestamp"] >= IS_START) & (m5["timestamp"] < IS_END)].reset_index(drop=True)
is_m1 = m1[(m1["timestamp"] >= IS_START) & (m1["timestamp"] < IS_END)].reset_index(drop=True)
print(f" IS bars: {len(is_bars):,} IS M1: {len(is_m1):,}")
pack = build_signals(merged, is_bars, XAUUSD_REAL)
engine = ScalperEngine()
result = engine.run(
is_bars, pack.signals_long, pack.signals_short,
pack.sl_prices, pack.tp_prices,
XAUUSD_REAL, SizingInputs(), 1000.0,
m1_bars=is_m1,
**engine_kwargs_from_params(merged),
)
m = compute_metrics(result, periods_per_year=252 * 24 * 12)
gross_profit = sum(t.pnl for t in result.trades if t.pnl > 0)
gross_loss = sum(t.pnl for t in result.trades if t.pnl < 0)
print(f"\nPython IS:")
print(f" trades = {m.total_trades}")
print(f" gross profit = {gross_profit:.2f}")
print(f" gross loss = {gross_loss:.2f}")
print(f" net = {gross_profit + gross_loss:.2f}")
print(f" PF = {gross_profit / -gross_loss:.4f}" if gross_loss < 0 else " PF = inf")
print(f" avg net/trade = {(gross_profit + gross_loss) / m.total_trades:.4f}")
# Sample first 5 trades — check lot sizes & prices.
print(f"\nFirst 5 trades:")
print(f" {'time':<21} {'dir':<5} {'entry':>10} {'exit':>10} {'lots':>8} {'pnl':>9} {'reason'}")
for t in result.trades[:5]:
d = "LONG" if t.direction.name == "LONG" else "SHRT"
print(f" {str(t.entry_time):<21} {d:<5} {t.entry_price:>10.2f} "
f"{t.exit_price:>10.2f} {t.lots:>8.4f} {t.pnl:>9.4f} {t.exit_reason}")
# Distribution of lots.
import numpy as np
lots_arr = np.array([t.lots for t in result.trades])
print(f"\n lots: min={lots_arr.min():.4f} max={lots_arr.max():.4f} "
f"mean={lots_arr.mean():.4f} median={np.median(lots_arr):.4f}")
print(f" lots unique count: {len(np.unique(lots_arr))}")
print(f" lots histogram (top 5):")
vals, counts = np.unique(lots_arr, return_counts=True)
for v, c in sorted(zip(vals, counts), key=lambda x: -x[1])[:5]:
print(f" {v:.4f} ×{c}")
# MT5 comparison.
print(f"\nMT5 IS (from report):")
print(f" gross profit = 23416.75")
print(f" gross loss = -16429.41")
print(f" net = 6987.34")
print(f" PF = 1.43")
print(f" trades = 2348")
print(f" avg net/trade = {6987.34/2348:.4f}")
# Scaling check: if Python lots were 7.8x larger, would P/L match?
py_gross = gross_profit
mt5_gross = 23416.75
print(f"\n scaling factor (MT5 gross profit / Python gross profit): "
f"{mt5_gross/py_gross:.2f}x")
return 0
if __name__ == "__main__":
raise SystemExit(main())
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"""Inspect the HTML structure to find test period / sections."""
from pathlib import Path
from lxml import html
for label, fn in [("IS", "IS-ReportTester-52845377.html"), ("OOS", "OOS-ReportTester-52845377.html")]:
p = Path("reports") / fn
raw = p.read_bytes()
text = raw.decode("utf-16") if raw[:2] in (b"\xff\xfe", b"\xfe\xff") else raw.decode("utf-8", errors="replace")
tree = html.fromstring(text)
print(f"=== {label} ({fn}) ===")
# Find the test period row
for row in tree.iter("tr"):
cells = row.findall("td") or row.findall("th")
if len(cells) < 2:
continue
label_t = cells[0].text_content().strip()
if any(k in label_t for k in ["期间", "Period", "建模", "Model",
"前向", "Forward", "起止", "Date"]):
value = cells[1].text_content().strip()
print(f" {label_t}: {value}")
# Look for big section headers
print(f" -- h1/h2/h3 headers --")
for tag in ("h1", "h2", "h3", "h4"):
for el in tree.iter(tag):
t = (el.text_content() or "").strip()
if t:
print(f" <{tag}>: {t}")
# Count tables and tr
tables = tree.findall(".//table")
print(f" tables: {len(tables)}")
total_tr = sum(len(t.findall(".//tr")) for t in tables)
print(f" total <tr>: {total_tr}")
print()
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"""Inspect a finished Optuna study and print the best trial + diverse top-N."""
from __future__ import annotations
import sys
from pathlib import Path
PROJECT = Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent
sys.path.insert(0, str(PROJECT))
import optuna
from shared.optimizer.selector import select_diverse_topn
from strategies.gold_scalper_pro.search_space import SEARCH_SPACE
def main() -> int:
db = sys.argv[1] if len(sys.argv) > 1 else str(PROJECT / "studies" / "optuna" / "gold_scalper_pro_is2025.db")
name = sys.argv[2] if len(sys.argv) > 2 else "gold_scalper_pro_is2025"
study = optuna.load_study(study_name=name, storage=f"sqlite:///{db}")
completed = [t for t in study.trials if t.state.name == "COMPLETE"]
passing = [t for t in completed if not t.user_attrs.get("violations")]
print(f"=== study: {name} ===")
print(f" total trials : {len(study.trials)}")
print(f" completed : {len(completed)}")
print(f" constraint-pass : {len(passing)}")
if not passing:
# Show the best by value anyway.
best = max(completed, key=lambda t: t.value)
print(f"\n no constraint-passing trials; best-by-value:")
_print_trial(best, "best-by-value")
return 1
print(f"\n === best (by score) ===")
_print_trial(study.best_trial, "best")
print(f"\n === diverse top-3 finalists ===")
finalists = select_diverse_topn(study, n=3, ranges=SEARCH_SPACE)
for i, t in enumerate(finalists, 1):
_print_trial(t, f"finalist #{i}")
return 0
def _print_trial(t, label: str) -> None:
a = t.user_attrs
print(f" [{label}] trial #{t.number} score={t.value:.2f}")
print(f" net={a['net_profit']:.2f} PF={a['profit_factor']:.2f} "
f"trades={a['total_trades']} DD%={a['max_equity_dd_pct']:.2%} "
f"sharpe={a['sharpe']:.2f}")
if a.get("violations"):
print(f" violations: {a['violations']}")
print(f" params:")
for k, v in t.params.items():
print(f" {k:24s}={v}")
if __name__ == "__main__":
raise SystemExit(main())
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"""Phase 6 — Optuna optimization for GoldScalperPro (doc 06).
Two modes via CLI flags:
--smoke 30 trials, IS = 2025 H1 only (~6 months). Validates the
objective + storage + scoring end-to-end in <2 min before
committing to the full study. Run this first, always.
(default) 500 trials, IS = 2025 full year (with a 2-week purge gap
before year-end so OOS walk-forward is leak-free). TPE
sampler, SQLite-persisted so the study resumes/inspects
mid-run. Runs in the foreground with progress bar; for a
long run launch with `start /b python scripts\\optimize.py`
(Windows) and poll the .db file separately.
Why M1 bars are mandatory here (doc 03 §7 / §8, CLAUDE.md standing rule):
GoldScalperPro uses break-even + trailing stops, so the bar-level engine
produces a 40% to 50% hidden gap vs MT5. The objective passes ``m1_bars``
to ``engine.run`` so the engine switches to tick-level exit simulation.
Window design (doc 06 §4 walk-forward):
IS = 2025-01-01 00:00 → 2025-12-15 00:00 (exclusive end, ~11.5 months)
purge = 2025-12-15 .. 2025-12-31 (2-week gap, no trades counted either side)
OOS = 2026-01-01 00:00 → 2026-07-01 00:00 (~6 months, fixed finalist params)
Constraints (user-confirmed "strict" preset):
min_trades=40, min_profit_factor=1.5, max_equity_dd_pct=0.25
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import argparse
import sys
from pathlib import Path
PROJECT = Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent
sys.path.insert(0, str(PROJECT))
import optuna
import pandas as pd
from shared.core.engine import SizingInputs
from shared.optimizer.objective import (
Constraints,
ObjectiveConfig,
build_objective,
)
from shared.optimizer.selector import select_diverse_topn
from strategies.gold_scalper_pro.instruments import XAUUSD_REAL
from strategies.gold_scalper_pro.scalper_engine import ScalperEngine
from strategies.gold_scalper_pro.search_space import (
FROZEN_BASELINE,
INT_PARAMS,
SEARCH_SPACE,
)
from strategies.gold_scalper_pro.signals import build_signals
from strategies.gold_scalper_pro.scalper_engine import engine_kwargs_from_params
# ── Windows ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
IS_START = pd.Timestamp("2025-01-01 00:00:00")
IS_END = pd.Timestamp("2025-12-15 00:00:00") # exclusive end (purge after)
OOS_START = pd.Timestamp("2026-01-01 00:00:00")
OOS_END = pd.Timestamp("2026-07-01 00:00:00") # exclusive end
INITIAL_DEPOSIT = 1000.0
SEED = 42
def slice_window(df: pd.DataFrame, start: pd.Timestamp, end: pd.Timestamp) -> pd.DataFrame:
"""Slice bars to [start, end) — exclusive end matches MT5 tester semantics."""
return df[(df["timestamp"] >= start) & (df["timestamp"] < end)].reset_index(drop=True)
def make_objective_config(
bars_is: pd.DataFrame,
m1_is: pd.DataFrame,
full_m5: pd.DataFrame,
) -> ObjectiveConfig:
"""Assemble the ObjectiveConfig for the IS window.
``bars_is`` / ``m1_is`` are trimmed to the IS evaluation window — the
engine runs on these (initial_deposit reset, no open position at IS_START,
matching MT5 Strategy Tester).
``full_m5`` is the FULL M5 history (data starts 2024-06-26 → ~6 months of
pre-IS warmup, well beyond EMA(160)'s ~14h requirement). It is passed as
``signals_full_bars`` so the objective builds signals on it, then slices
the signal arrays to ``bars_is``' time range — mirroring MT5 tester's
pre-test chart-history indicator warmup. Without this, EMA/RSI/ATR would
only start warming up at IS_START and the first Python trade would land
~14h late vs MT5 (the original warmup bug — see reeval_finalist_forward.py
docstring).
"""
constraints = Constraints(
min_trades=40,
min_profit_factor=1.5,
max_equity_dd_pct=0.25,
)
return ObjectiveConfig(
engine=ScalperEngine(),
bars=bars_is,
instrument=XAUUSD_REAL,
sizing=SizingInputs(),
initial_deposit=INITIAL_DEPOSIT,
search_space=SEARCH_SPACE,
int_params=INT_PARAMS,
frozen_baseline=FROZEN_BASELINE,
constraints=constraints,
dd_weight=1.0,
build_signals=build_signals,
build_engine_kwargs=engine_kwargs_from_params,
m1_bars=m1_is, # mandatory for trailing/BE EA
signals_full_bars=full_m5, # indicator warmup (doc 03 §8)
)
def run_smoke() -> int:
"""30 trials, IS H1 2025 only. Validates the script end-to-end."""
print("=== Phase 6 SMOKE TEST ===")
m5 = load_m5()
m1 = load_m1()
# Shorter IS window for the smoke run.
bars_is = slice_window(m5, pd.Timestamp("2025-01-01"), pd.Timestamp("2025-07-01"))
m1_is = slice_window(m1, pd.Timestamp("2025-01-01"), pd.Timestamp("2025-07-01"))
print(f" IS bars : {len(bars_is):,} M1 bars: {len(m1_is):,}")
print(f" warmup : {len(m5):,} full M5 bars (signals_full_bars)")
cfg = make_objective_config(bars_is, m1_is, full_m5=m5)
objective = build_objective(cfg)
study = optuna.create_study(
direction="maximize",
sampler=optuna.samplers.TPESampler(seed=SEED),
)
print(" running 30 trials ...")
study.optimize(objective, n_trials=30, show_progress_bar=False)
print(f" done. best value = {study.best_value:.2f}")
print(f" best params: {study.best_params}")
print(f" best attrs : net={study.best_trial.user_attrs['net_profit']:.2f}, "
f"PF={study.best_trial.user_attrs['profit_factor']:.2f}, "
f"trades={study.best_trial.user_attrs['total_trades']}, "
f"DD%={study.best_trial.user_attrs['max_equity_dd_pct']:.2%}")
return 0
def run_full(study_db: Path, n_trials: int) -> int:
"""Full study, IS = 2025 (with 2-week purge). SQLite-persisted."""
print(f"=== Phase 6 FULL STUDY ({n_trials} trials) ===")
m5 = load_m5()
m1 = load_m1()
bars_is = slice_window(m5, IS_START, IS_END)
m1_is = slice_window(m1, IS_START, IS_END)
print(f" IS window: {IS_START.date()}{IS_END.date()} (exclusive)")
print(f" IS bars : {len(bars_is):,} M1 bars: {len(m1_is):,}")
print(f" warmup : {len(m5):,} full M5 bars (signals_full_bars)")
cfg = make_objective_config(bars_is, m1_is, full_m5=m5)
objective = build_objective(cfg)
study_db.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
storage = f"sqlite:///{study_db}"
study = optuna.create_study(
direction="maximize",
sampler=optuna.samplers.TPESampler(seed=SEED),
storage=storage,
study_name="gold_scalper_pro_is2025",
load_if_exists=True,
)
n_existing = len([t for t in study.trials if t.state.name == "COMPLETE"])
if n_existing > 0:
print(f" resumed existing study: {n_existing} complete trials so far")
print(f" running {n_trials} trials (foreground; Ctrl+C to stop — study is saved) ...")
study.optimize(objective, n_trials=n_trials, show_progress_bar=True)
print(f"\n === best trial ===")
print(f" value = {study.best_value:.2f}")
print(f" params:")
for k, v in study.best_params.items():
print(f" {k:24s} = {v}")
a = study.best_trial.user_attrs
print(f" metrics: net={a['net_profit']:.2f}, PF={a['profit_factor']:.2f}, "
f"trades={a['total_trades']}, DD%={a['max_equity_dd_pct']:.2%}")
if a.get("violations"):
print(f" violations: {a['violations']}")
# Diverse top-3 finalists (doc 06 §3).
print(f"\n === diverse top-3 finalists ===")
finalists = select_diverse_topn(study, n=3, ranges=SEARCH_SPACE)
if not finalists:
print(" no constraint-passing trials found.")
return 1
for i, t in enumerate(finalists, 1):
d = t.user_attrs
print(f" finalist #{i}: trial #{t.number} value={t.value:.2f}")
print(f" net={d['net_profit']:.2f}, PF={d['profit_factor']:.2f}, "
f"trades={d['total_trades']}, DD%={d['max_equity_dd_pct']:.2%}")
print(f" params: {t.params}")
print(f"\n study DB: {study_db}")
return 0
def load_m5() -> pd.DataFrame:
from shared.data.loaders import load_bars
p = PROJECT / "data" / "XAUUSD_M5_2024-06-26_2026-06-26.parquet"
if not p.exists():
sys.exit(f"missing M5 data: {p}")
return load_bars(p)
def load_m1() -> pd.DataFrame:
from shared.data.loaders import load_bars
p = PROJECT / "data" / "XAUUSD_M1_2024-06-26_2026-06-26.parquet"
if not p.exists():
sys.exit(f"missing M1 data: {p} — run scripts/download_xauusd_m1.py first")
return load_bars(p)
def main() -> int:
ap = argparse.ArgumentParser()
ap.add_argument("--smoke", action="store_true",
help="30 trials on IS H1 2025; validate the script end-to-end")
ap.add_argument("--trials", type=int, default=500,
help="trial budget for the full study (default 500)")
ap.add_argument("--db", type=Path,
default=PROJECT / "studies" / "optuna" / "gold_scalper_pro_is2025.db",
help="SQLite path for the full study (resumable)")
args = ap.parse_args()
if args.smoke:
return run_smoke()
return run_full(args.db, args.trials)
if __name__ == "__main__":
raise SystemExit(main())
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"""Phase 7 — Prepare finalist #1 for MT5 verification (doc 07, doc 08 step 6).
Reads the Optuna finalist from the study DB, generates a .set file in MT5's
tester profile directory, and prints the exact Strategy Tester settings for
the FORWARD test mode (one run produces both IS + OOS segments).
MT5 forward mode: set the whole window + a forward start date. MT5 splits:
history (IS) = FromDate → Forward start
forward (OOS) = Forward start → ToDate
After the user runs the tester and exports the forward HTML report, run
scripts/compare_finalist.py to print the Python-vs-MT5 table for both segments.
Usage:
python scripts/prepare_mt5_verify.py # finalist #1 (best by score)
python scripts/prepare_mt5_verify.py 2 # finalist #2
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import json
import sys
from pathlib import Path
PROJECT = Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent
sys.path.insert(0, str(PROJECT))
import optuna
from shared.optimizer.selector import select_diverse_topn
from shared.mt5_pipeline.set_gen import write_set_file
from strategies.gold_scalper_pro.search_space import (
FROZEN_BASELINE,
SEARCH_SPACE,
)
from strategies.gold_scalper_pro.set_mappings import GOLD_SCALPER_MAPPINGS
# Windows where MT5's tester profiles live (terminal data path).
MT5_TESTER_DIR = Path(r"C:\Users\Administrator\AppData\Roaming\MetaQuotes\Terminal"
r"\010E047102812FC0C18890992854220E\MQL5\Profiles\Tester")
# Forward-mode window: one run produces IS (12 mo) + OOS (~6 mo).
# Data ends 2026-06-25 23:55; ToDate is exclusive day boundary so 2026.06.26
# picks up the last bar at 2026-06-25 23:55.
FROM_DATE = "2025.01.01" # whole-window start
TO_DATE = "2026.06.26" # whole-window end (exclusive day boundary)
FORWARD_DATE = "2026.01.01" # forward start: IS|OOS split point
INITIAL_DEPOSIT = 1000.0
def main() -> int:
finalist_idx = int(sys.argv[1]) if len(sys.argv) > 1 else 1
if finalist_idx < 1 or finalist_idx > 3:
sys.exit("finalist index must be 1, 2, or 3")
db = PROJECT / "studies" / "optuna" / "gold_scalper_pro_is2025.db"
study = optuna.load_study(
study_name="gold_scalper_pro_is2025",
storage=f"sqlite:///{db}",
)
finalists = select_diverse_topn(study, n=3, ranges=SEARCH_SPACE)
if len(finalists) < finalist_idx:
sys.exit(f"only {len(finalists)} finalists available")
t = finalists[finalist_idx - 1]
merged = {**FROZEN_BASELINE, **t.params}
# Pull the MT5-forward-aligned Python metrics (saved by reeval_finalist_forward.py).
fwd_json = PROJECT / "studies" / "finalists" / "gold_scalper_pro_is2025-2026.json"
if fwd_json.exists():
fwd = json.loads(fwd_json.read_text(encoding="utf-8"))
py_is = fwd["finalists"][finalist_idx - 1]["IS"]
py_oos = fwd["finalists"][finalist_idx - 1]["OOS"]
else:
py_is = py_oos = None
print(f"=== finalist #{finalist_idx} (trial #{t.number}) ===")
if py_is:
print(f" Python IS (12 mo) : net={py_is['net']:.2f} PF={py_is['PF']:.2f} "
f"trades={py_is['trades']} DD%={py_is['DD%']:.2%}")
print(f" Python OOS (6 mo) : net={py_oos['net']:.2f} PF={py_oos['PF']:.2f} "
f"trades={py_oos['trades']} DD%={py_oos['DD%']:.2%}")
else:
print(f" (run scripts/reeval_finalist_forward.py first to get Python metrics)")
# Write the .set to MT5's tester profile dir.
set_name = f"GoldScalperPro_finalist{finalist_idx}_trial{t.number}.set"
set_path = MT5_TESTER_DIR / set_name
write_set_file(merged, GOLD_SCALPER_MAPPINGS, set_path)
print(f"\n .set written to: {set_path}")
print(f"\n === MT5 Strategy Tester setup (FORWARD mode, ONE run) ===")
print(f" 1. Open MT5 → Ctrl+R (Strategy Tester)")
print(f" 2. Expert: GoldScalperPro")
print(f" 3. Symbol: XAUUSD")
print(f" 4. Period: M5 (chart timeframe, must match InpTimeframe)")
print(f" 5. Model: Every tick (based on real ticks) [doc 07 §2b: path-sensitive → real ticks]")
print(f" 6. Deposit: {INITIAL_DEPOSIT:.0f} USD")
print(f" 7. Leverage: 1:100")
print(f" 8. Date range:")
print(f" From: {FROM_DATE}")
print(f" To: {TO_DATE}")
print(f" 9. Forward: Custom date → {FORWARD_DATE}")
print(f" (this splits IS={FROM_DATE}..{FORWARD_DATE} | OOS={FORWARD_DATE}..{TO_DATE})")
print(f" 10. Click 'Inputs' tab → 'Load' → select: {set_name}")
print(f" (verify InpRiskPercent={merged['InpRiskPercent']}, "
f"InpAtrPeriod={merged['InpAtrPeriod']}, "
f"InpFastEmaPeriod={merged['InpFastEmaPeriod']}, "
f"InpSlowEmaPeriod={merged['InpSlowEmaPeriod']})")
print(f" 11. Click Start. The forward HTML report has TWO sections:")
print(f" - 'Backtest' (top) = IS ({FROM_DATE}..{FORWARD_DATE})")
print(f" - 'Forward' (bottom) = OOS ({FORWARD_DATE}..{TO_DATE}, ~6 mo of data)")
print(f" 12. Right-click the report → 'Save as Report' → save to:")
print(f" reports/ReportTester_forward_finalist{finalist_idx}.html")
print(f"\n When the HTML is saved, run:")
print(f" python scripts/compare_finalist.py {finalist_idx}")
return 0
if __name__ == "__main__":
raise SystemExit(main())
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"""Re-evaluate finalist #1 on the MT5-forward-aligned window.
MT5 forward mode (FromDate=2025.01.01, ToDate=2026.06.26, Forward=2026.01.01)
produces two segments:
IS = 2025-01-01 → 2026-01-01 (12 months)
OOS = 2026-01-01 → 2026-06-26 (~6 months, data ends 2026-06-25 23:55)
INDICATOR WARMUP (matches MT5 tester behaviour): MT5's Strategy Tester uses
pre-test chart history to warm up indicators — EMA(160) on M5 needs ~14 hours
of bars before it produces a value, but MT5's first 2025-01-02 trade fires at
01:55 because the indicator was already stable on 2024 data. The previous
version of this script sliced bars to [IS_START, IS_END) BEFORE computing
signals, so indicators didn't stabilise until ~14 hours into 2025-01-01 and
the first Python trade landed at 15:50 — 14 hours late vs MT5.
Fix: compute signals on the FULL bars (data starts 2024-06-26 → ~6 months of
warmup, well beyond EMA(160)'s 14-hour requirement), then trim the bars +
signal arrays + M1 to the evaluation window before running the engine. The
engine therefore starts fresh at IS_START (initial_deposit, no open position)
exactly like MT5's tester, but sees indicators that are already stable.
Outputs the metrics dict that compare_finalist.py will pick up.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import json
import sys
from pathlib import Path
PROJECT = Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent
sys.path.insert(0, str(PROJECT))
import optuna
import pandas as pd
from shared.core.engine import SizingInputs
from shared.core.metrics import compute_metrics
from shared.data.loaders import load_bars
from shared.optimizer.selector import select_diverse_topn
from strategies.gold_scalper_pro.instruments import XAUUSD_REAL
from strategies.gold_scalper_pro.scalper_engine import (
ScalperEngine,
engine_kwargs_from_params,
)
from strategies.gold_scalper_pro.search_space import FROZEN_BASELINE, SEARCH_SPACE
from strategies.gold_scalper_pro.signals import build_signals
# MT5-forward-aligned windows (ToDate is exclusive in MT5 tester's day boundary).
IS_START = pd.Timestamp("2025-01-01 00:00:00")
IS_END = pd.Timestamp("2026-01-01 00:00:00") # forward start
OOS_START = pd.Timestamp("2026-01-01 00:00:00")
OOS_END = pd.Timestamp("2026-06-26 00:00:00") # data ends 2026-06-25 23:55
INITIAL_DEPOSIT = 1000.0
def run_with_warmup(params, full_bars, full_m1, win_start, win_end):
"""Compute signals on FULL bars (with pre-window warmup) and run the
engine on the trimmed [win_start, win_end) slice only.
Mirrors MT5 Strategy Tester: indicator buffers are pre-warmed on history
before the test start, but the engine/equity starts fresh at win_start.
"""
pack = build_signals(params, full_bars, XAUUSD_REAL)
ts = pd.to_datetime(full_bars["timestamp"].to_numpy())
lo = int(ts.searchsorted(win_start, side="left"))
hi = int(ts.searchsorted(win_end, side="left"))
win_bars = full_bars.iloc[lo:hi].reset_index(drop=True)
sig_long = pack.signals_long[lo:hi]
sig_short = pack.signals_short[lo:hi]
sl_p = pack.sl_prices[lo:hi]
tp_p = pack.tp_prices[lo:hi]
if full_m1 is not None and len(full_m1) > 0:
m1_ts = pd.to_datetime(full_m1["timestamp"].to_numpy())
m1_lo = int(m1_ts.searchsorted(win_start, side="left"))
m1_hi = int(m1_ts.searchsorted(win_end, side="left"))
win_m1 = full_m1.iloc[m1_lo:m1_hi].reset_index(drop=True)
else:
win_m1 = None
engine = ScalperEngine()
result = engine.run(
win_bars, sig_long, sig_short, sl_p, tp_p,
XAUUSD_REAL, SizingInputs(), INITIAL_DEPOSIT,
m1_bars=win_m1,
**engine_kwargs_from_params(params),
)
m = compute_metrics(result, periods_per_year=252 * 24 * 12)
return {
"net": round(m.net_profit, 2),
"PF": round(m.profit_factor, 4),
"trades": m.total_trades,
"DD%": round(m.max_equity_dd_pct, 6),
"sharpe": round(m.sharpe, 4),
"win_rate": round(m.win_rate, 4),
"first_trade_ts": (
result.trades[0].entry_time.isoformat() if result.trades else None
),
}
def main() -> int:
db = PROJECT / "studies" / "optuna" / "gold_scalper_pro_is2025.db"
study = optuna.load_study(
study_name="gold_scalper_pro_is2025",
storage=f"sqlite:///{db}",
)
finalists = select_diverse_topn(study, n=3, ranges=SEARCH_SPACE)
if not finalists:
sys.exit("no finalists")
print("loading bars (full history, used as indicator warmup) ...")
full_m5 = load_bars(PROJECT / "data" / "XAUUSD_M5_2024-06-26_2026-06-26.parquet")
full_m1 = load_bars(PROJECT / "data" / "XAUUSD_M1_2024-06-26_2026-06-26.parquet")
print(f" full M5: {len(full_m5):,} bars full M1: {len(full_m1):,} bars")
print(f" IS : {IS_START.date()}{IS_END.date()} (12 months, MT5 forward-aligned)")
print(f" OOS : {OOS_START.date()}{OOS_END.date()} (~6 months, data ends 2026-06-25)")
print(f" warmup window: {full_m5['timestamp'].min()}{IS_START} "
f"(~6 months, EMA(160) needs ~14h so this is plenty)")
out = {"windows": {"IS": [str(IS_START), str(IS_END)],
"OOS": [str(OOS_START), str(OOS_END)]},
"finalists": []}
for i, t in enumerate(finalists, 1):
merged = {**FROZEN_BASELINE, **t.params}
print(f"\n--- finalist #{i} (trial #{t.number}) ---")
is_m = run_with_warmup(merged, full_m5, full_m1, IS_START, IS_END)
oos_m = run_with_warmup(merged, full_m5, full_m1, OOS_START, OOS_END)
print(f" IS : net={is_m['net']:.2f} PF={is_m['PF']:.2f} "
f"trades={is_m['trades']} DD%={is_m['DD%']:.2%} "
f"first={is_m['first_trade_ts']}")
print(f" OOS : net={oos_m['net']:.2f} PF={oos_m['PF']:.2f} "
f"trades={oos_m['trades']} DD%={oos_m['DD%']:.2%} "
f"first={oos_m['first_trade_ts']}")
out["finalists"].append({
"index": i,
"trial_number": t.number,
"score": round(t.value, 2),
"params": t.params,
"merged_params": merged,
"IS": is_m,
"OOS": oos_m,
})
out_path = PROJECT / "studies" / "finalists" / "gold_scalper_pro_is2025-2026.json"
out_path.write_text(json.dumps(out, indent=2, default=str), encoding="utf-8")
print(f"\n saved: {out_path}")
return 0
if __name__ == "__main__":
raise SystemExit(main())
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"""Walk-forward OOS evaluation of the Optuna finalists (doc 06 §4).
The 3 diverse finalists were selected on the IS window (2025-01-01 → 2025-12-15,
2-week purge after). This script runs each finalist's FIXED params on the OOS
window (2026-01-01 → 2026-07-01) and compares:
OOS metric / IS metric
A robust finalist keeps most of its edge out-of-sample. A fragile one keeps
its edge only in IS — typically trade-count collapses or PF falls below 1.
Also runs the IS numbers with the same fixed params so the ratio is computed
on identical configurations (the study's stored metrics are valid but we
recompute here for the same OOS script path / instrument).
OOS uses the same M1 tick-level exit simulation (mandatory for trailing/BE).
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import sys
from pathlib import Path
PROJECT = Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent
sys.path.insert(0, str(PROJECT))
import optuna
import pandas as pd
from shared.core.engine import SizingInputs
from shared.core.metrics import compute_metrics
from shared.data.loaders import load_bars
from shared.optimizer.selector import select_diverse_topn
from strategies.gold_scalper_pro.instruments import XAUUSD_REAL
from strategies.gold_scalper_pro.scalper_engine import (
ScalperEngine,
engine_kwargs_from_params,
)
from strategies.gold_scalper_pro.search_space import (
FROZEN_BASELINE,
SEARCH_SPACE,
)
from strategies.gold_scalper_pro.signals import build_signals
IS_START = pd.Timestamp("2025-01-01 00:00:00")
IS_END = pd.Timestamp("2025-12-15 00:00:00")
OOS_START = pd.Timestamp("2026-01-01 00:00:00")
OOS_END = pd.Timestamp("2026-07-01 00:00:00")
INITIAL_DEPOSIT = 1000.0
def slice_window(df: pd.DataFrame, start: pd.Timestamp, end: pd.Timestamp) -> pd.DataFrame:
return df[(df["timestamp"] >= start) & (df["timestamp"] < end)].reset_index(drop=True)
def run_with_params(params: dict, bars: pd.DataFrame, m1: pd.DataFrame) -> dict:
"""Run the engine with FIXED params on a window, return metrics dict."""
pack = build_signals(params, bars, XAUUSD_REAL)
engine = ScalperEngine()
result = engine.run(
bars, pack.signals_long, pack.signals_short,
pack.sl_prices, pack.tp_prices,
XAUUSD_REAL, SizingInputs(), INITIAL_DEPOSIT,
m1_bars=m1,
**engine_kwargs_from_params(params),
)
m = compute_metrics(result, periods_per_year=252 * 24 * 12)
return {
"net": m.net_profit,
"PF": m.profit_factor,
"trades": m.total_trades,
"DD%": m.max_equity_dd_pct,
"sharpe": m.sharpe,
"win_rate": m.win_rate,
}
def main() -> int:
db = PROJECT / "studies" / "optuna" / "gold_scalper_pro_is2025.db"
study = optuna.load_study(
study_name="gold_scalper_pro_is2025",
storage=f"sqlite:///{db}",
)
finalists = select_diverse_topn(study, n=3, ranges=SEARCH_SPACE)
if not finalists:
print("no constraint-passing finalists to walk-forward.")
return 1
print("loading bars ...")
m5 = load_bars(PROJECT / "data" / "XAUUSD_M5_2024-06-26_2026-06-26.parquet")
m1 = load_bars(PROJECT / "data" / "XAUUSD_M1_2024-06-26_2026-06-26.parquet")
is_bars = slice_window(m5, IS_START, IS_END)
is_m1 = slice_window(m1, IS_START, IS_END)
oos_bars = slice_window(m5, OOS_START, OOS_END)
oos_m1 = slice_window(m1, OOS_START, OOS_END)
print(f" IS bars : {len(is_bars):,} IS M1 : {len(is_m1):,}")
print(f" OOS bars: {len(oos_bars):,} OOS M1: {len(oos_m1):,}")
print(f" IS window : {IS_START.date()}{IS_END.date()} (11.5 months)")
print(f" OOS window: {OOS_START.date()}{OOS_END.date()} (6 months)")
print(f"\n{'='*100}")
print(f"{'metric':12s} {'IS':>14s} {'OOS':>14s} {'OOS/IS':>10s} notes")
print(f"{'-'*100}")
for i, t in enumerate(finalists, 1):
merged = {**FROZEN_BASELINE, **t.params}
print(f"\n--- finalist #{i} trial #{t.number} score={t.value:.2f} ---")
is_m = run_with_params(merged, is_bars, is_m1)
oos_m = run_with_params(merged, oos_bars, oos_m1)
_print_row("net", is_m["net"], oos_m["net"], ratio=oos_m["net"]/is_m["net"] if is_m["net"] != 0 else None)
_print_row("PF", is_m["PF"], oos_m["PF"], ratio=oos_m["PF"]/is_m["PF"] if is_m["PF"] != 0 else None)
_print_row("trades", is_m["trades"], oos_m["trades"], ratio=oos_m["trades"]/is_m["trades"] if is_m["trades"] else None)
_print_row("DD%", is_m["DD%"], oos_m["DD%"], ratio=oos_m["DD%"]/is_m["DD%"] if is_m["DD%"] else None)
_print_row("sharpe", is_m["sharpe"], oos_m["sharpe"], ratio=oos_m["sharpe"]/is_m["sharpe"] if is_m["sharpe"] else None)
_print_row("win_rate", is_m["win_rate"], oos_m["win_rate"], ratio=oos_m["win_rate"]/is_m["win_rate"] if is_m["win_rate"] else None)
print(f"\n{'='*100}")
print("interpretation (doc 06 §4 walk-forward):")
print(" OOS/IS ≥ ~0.6 on net and PF → edge holds out-of-sample (robust)")
print(" OOS/IS < ~0.5 on PF, or OOS PF < 1.0 → fragile; IS-only edge")
print(" trade-count ratio drops sharply → signal degraded in the new regime")
return 0
def _print_row(label: str, is_v: float, oos_v: float, *, ratio: float | None) -> None:
if ratio is None:
r = " n/a"
else:
r = f" {ratio:6.2f}"
print(f"{label:12s} {is_v:14.2f} {oos_v:14.2f} {r:>10s}")
if __name__ == "__main__":
raise SystemExit(main())