# signals

id: 1640919_0x659f8452605aacbae74d78c470e83c47092003d0dc33765572be409c2dbd9c95-1731
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0x659f8452605aacbae74d78c470e83c47092003d0dc33765572be409c2dbd9c95-1731
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xb2d7cebe60e8e667b177993e382ff3b95b81312c
insider_evidence: 该交易者历史胜率极高且专门深耕伊朗市场；当前市场 Yes 侧由多位 Top 200 交易者把持；交易时间点位于 3 月底，紧贴 4 月 6 日的官方最后期限。
detected_at: 2026-03-30T03:59:50.866300
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":1234,"pnl":101337.55760685449,"volume":659936.0803,"user_name":"Gilmanor","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":18,"total_volume":331155.64991,"avg_trade_size":18397.53610611111,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?","US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?","US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?","Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?","Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026","US forces enter Iran by March 31?","US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?","US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?"],"large_trades_count":12,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":168577.7939,"price":0.9737161579677311,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","timestamp":1772262101},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":23694.36693,"price":0.9666372498384476,"title":"US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?","timestamp":1772262097},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":22882.73749,"price":0.9936517888586226,"title":"Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?","timestamp":1772262093},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":19999.999999,"price":0.18906707031981246,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","timestamp":1772191889},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":18999.999999,"price":0.25033213238265783,"title":"Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?","timestamp":1769338518},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":16968.524699,"price":0.40880181497401463,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774512689},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9999.999998999998,"price":0.33768353170568105,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?","timestamp":1771430114},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9999.999998,"price":0.7074074643369401,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?","timestamp":1771430258},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8000.0,"price":0.16,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","timestamp":1772191857},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7298.669999000001,"price":0.2977570666634825,"title":"US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?","timestamp":1772191925}]}

reasoning:
交易者 Gilmanor 是地缘政治领域的资深鲸鱼，在之前的伊朗打击市场中有过显著的成功记录。此次买入行为发生在美军最后通牒（4月6日）之前，且与市场顶级精英（#58 交易者）的方向高度一致。虽然 $14.5k 的交易金额很大，但属于该交易者的常规操作范围。考虑到目前公开新闻（Reuters 报道的地面行动计划）和社交媒体情报（披萨指数、神秘大额新钱包）已部分反映了战争风险，该交易更倾向于是‘基于深度专业分析和信息汇总的精明博弈’，而非单纯依赖绝对未公开的内部指令。


id: 1640919_0xc07721d0efb6e2b9241e67ca6006224586cf1356ae4161fbc08c794a1310b4df-1504
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0xc07721d0efb6e2b9241e67ca6006224586cf1356ae4161fbc08c794a1310b4df-1504
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xb2d7cebe60e8e667b177993e382ff3b95b81312c
detected_at: 2026-03-30T04:00:49.343345
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":1234,"pnl":101337.55760685449,"volume":659936.0803,"user_name":"Gilmanor","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":18,"total_volume":331155.64991,"avg_trade_size":18397.53610611111,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?","US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?","US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?","Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?","Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026","US forces enter Iran by March 31?","US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?","US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?"],"large_trades_count":12,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":168577.7939,"price":0.9737161579677311,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","timestamp":1772262101},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":23694.36693,"price":0.9666372498384476,"title":"US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?","timestamp":1772262097},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":22882.73749,"price":0.9936517888586226,"title":"Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?","timestamp":1772262093},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":19999.999999,"price":0.18906707031981246,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","timestamp":1772191889},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":18999.999999,"price":0.25033213238265783,"title":"Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?","timestamp":1769338518},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":16968.524699,"price":0.40880181497401463,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774512689},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9999.999998999998,"price":0.33768353170568105,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?","timestamp":1771430114},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9999.999998,"price":0.7074074643369401,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?","timestamp":1771430258},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8000.0,"price":0.16,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","timestamp":1772191857},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7298.669999000001,"price":0.2977570666634825,"title":"US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?","timestamp":1772191925}]}

reasoning:
交易者 'Gilmanor' (排名 #1234, PnL >$100k) 是 Polymarket 地缘政治领域的资深大户，其交易记录显示他长期深耕伊朗局势相关市场，且胜率极高。此次在 11:57:32 连续下两笔大单（合计约 $42.7k），正值媒体（Reuters, CNN）广泛报道‘美军准备进行为期数周的地面行动’及‘3500名海军陆战队抵达中东’之后。考虑到该交易者之前持有‘3月31日前进入伊朗’的仓位，此笔 4月30日市场的买入更像是对时间风险的对冲或滚动头寸（Rolling over）。虽然交易金额巨大且时机精准，但由于相关军事动向已由主流媒体公开报道，该行为更符合‘对公开信息的深度研判’而非‘非法内幕消息’。评分 0.48 反映了其高度的专业判断和潜在的消息敏感性，但未达内幕交易的确定性门槛。

insider_evidence:
1. 交易者专注于地缘政治，且在之前的伊朗相关市场已获利丰厚，具备极强的信息筛选能力；2. 交易发生在美军地面行动传闻达到顶峰的 3 月 30 日，买入价格 0.67 虽非极低，但显示出对事件在 4 月底前发生的极高信心；3. Top 持仓者中包括 SecondWindCapital (#58) 等多位顶级精英，形成了‘聪明钱’共识。


id: 1640919_0xf584a801edaf09bec54e508a8b769e17c214a21e542d9db50e1bdd83928e37c4-3178
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0xf584a801edaf09bec54e508a8b769e17c214a21e542d9db50e1bdd83928e37c4-3178
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x2123baa9adb825ce4d893867186f5932a62827a2
detected_at: 2026-03-30T05:42:33.382900
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":4144,"pnl":28038.627467436476,"volume":569629.086804,"user_name":"xiuzhu","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":405001.092149,"avg_trade_size":4050.01092149,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?","Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch?","Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on Nove","LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 4","US strikes Iran by February 11, 2026?","LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 3","Over $5M committed to the Hurupay public sale?","Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale?","Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch","US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?"],"large_trades_count":34,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":27486.34432,"price":0.9981977871126385,"title":"US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?","timestamp":1772266503},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":20498.649992,"price":0.9779999999998091,"title":"Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?","timestamp":1773332627},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":20280.54,"price":0.8748041125050954,"title":"Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?","timestamp":1772989645},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":18891.93434,"price":0.9915079317761237,"title":"Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?","timestamp":1769774072},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":17235.32442,"price":0.9970355264231134,"title":"Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch?","timestamp":1772803039},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":16255.089982,"price":0.9403301956624012,"title":"Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch?","timestamp":1772717481},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":15898.999988,"price":0.934133069141222,"title":"Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch?","timestamp":1772803749},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":10158.41142,"price":0.999,"title":"Over $140M committed to the Ranger public sale?","timestamp":1768061298},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9623.009998,"price":0.8914339835951012,"title":"Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?","timestamp":1765038743},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":9277.76296,"price":0.997,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?","timestamp":1771640900}]}

reasoning:
该交易者 (xiuzhu) 是典型的军事/宏观专家，其资金流向清晰地展示了从‘空袭获利’向‘地面行动下注’的逻辑迁移。虽然目前大部分信息（如五角大楼计划）已由媒体公开，但密集的高排名鲸鱼在同一时间段买入，暗示他们可能掌握了比公开新闻更具体的部队调动时间表，或对‘地面入侵’的界定有更确定的内部解读。

insider_evidence:
1. 交易时机与 i24 News 关于‘下周初兵力就绪’的报道精准吻合；2. 该交易者与排名 #1234 的另一鲸鱼在数小时内形成了明显的买入共识；3. 交易者刚清空空袭市场的获利仓位，显示其对冲突升级有极高信心的判断链条。


id: 1706212_0x910e67a273ff2bb03b78a95d64110bb2ec00fdd5e77c83bb194abab9c73c67bc-1338
market_id: 1706212
market_question: Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026?
condition_id: 0xdaf306854808eb73447e3fd8cd3736377b23e0e9e08234909fdb486b47462c99
transaction_hash: 0x910e67a273ff2bb03b78a95d64110bb2ec00fdd5e77c83bb194abab9c73c67bc-1338
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0xe42b5f3c8ec8dc615ca8a073186d27b3934b8444
detected_at: 2026-03-30T08:49:16.296066
market_resolved_at: 2026-04-22T08:02:21.913973
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":18470,"pnl":5278.060831166255,"volume":160172.487089,"user_name":"0xE42b5f3C8EC8DC615cA8A073186D27B3934b8444-1768006366972","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":13,"total_volume":34949.61365,"avg_trade_size":2688.431819230769,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31","Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026?","Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?","Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?","Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January ","Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February","Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?"],"large_trades_count":1,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":12752.214460000001,"price":0.998,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1772353651}]}

reasoning:
该交易发生在 2026 年 3 月 30 日，正值中东局势剧烈动荡（所谓‘伊朗战争’爆发）期间。尽管新闻（如路透社和 CNBC）报道胡塞武装在 3 月 28 日和 29 日向以色列发射了导弹，且社交媒体流传‘本古里安机场附近出现巨大弹坑’，但该市场赔率仍保持在 0.47/0.53 左右，反映了极大的不确定性。这主要是因为市场规则非常严格：拦截后的碎片坠落不计入 'Yes'，必须是导弹直接撞击地面。交易者 0xe42b... 是一位专注于伊朗局势的专业玩家（PnL > $5k，且刚在高价平仓了‘哈梅内伊下台’市场），其买入 'No' 的行为与排名第 994 位、盈利 12.5 万美元的顶尖交易者 'idfinsider0228' 立场一致。这种‘聪明钱’集体看空胡塞武装打击效果的行为，极大概率是基于对以色列防空拦截成功率或军方战损评估（BDI）的非公开/准专业信息的掌握，认为已发生的袭击均不符合‘地面撞击’的结算标准。

insider_evidence:
1. 交易者是深耕中东局势的盈利型选手；2. 市场前五大持仓者中包含顶级高盈利账号 'idfinsider0228'，且双方均站在 'No' 方；3. 在社交媒体盛传‘命中’谣言时反向大额下注 'No'，通常暗示掌握了军方关于拦截成功率的真实数据或对‘拦截碎片’定义的精准判断。


id: 1742633_0x43ea2f61fa2e8c453844871683afa7ecc3752ab658e11de3527ac72607b0998d-930
market_id: 1742633
market_question: Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 30 be between 2,400,000 and 2,600,000?
condition_id: 0xb24649d09a75a04d5cfb81aefcb519abef672657c2720040b04d4d13b2f0155b
transaction_hash: 0x43ea2f61fa2e8c453844871683afa7ecc3752ab658e11de3527ac72607b0998d-930
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0x0042acfc7b4a08726665ed8cd081d7b6e33be62f
insider_evidence: 1. 交易时间精准覆盖了当天运行数据过半的关键时刻；2. 交易价格比市场价高出约 70%，展现出极端确定性；3. 该笔交易金额远超该交易者的平均历史交易规模。
detected_at: 2026-03-30T09:44:21.341829
market_resolved_at: 2026-03-31T14:52:38.910117
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":28228,"pnl":3201.7172012,"volume":205313.54941,"user_name":"KennethWilson8142","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":19788.319960000004,"avg_trade_size":197.88319960000004,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Vanta IPO before 2027?","Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at releas","Will the Pheu Thai Party (PT) win 110 or more seat","Will Israel or the US target Tehran?","Will Daniel Crenshaw be the Republican Nominee for","Will Israel strike Gaza on February 20, 2026?","Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 23, 2026?","Will Bruno Mars have a #1 hit in April?","Will Dundee FC vs. Motherwell FC end in a draw?","Databricks IPO before 2027?"],"large_trades_count":0,"recent_trades":[]}

reasoning:
该交易发生在美东下午时间，此时当天的全美航班运行和安检延误情况已基本定型。交易者以 69% 的高溢价（远高于市场 40% 的共识）强行买入 No，显著看空客流量。结合当天 DHS 停摆、TSA 员工罢工和机场关闭警告的公共背景，交易者极可能通过实时飞行追踪数据或机场现场情报，预判到由于运行瘫痪，客流量将跌破 2.4M 的区间下限。虽然相关危机是公开的，但如此高溢价的精准扫货具有明显的‘信息领先’特征。


id: 1691938_0x6d0153da16e73bed919faa5af7c8b6192f3f5b31e570c25095d97264d457be96-515
market_id: 1691938
market_question: Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 54m?
condition_id: 0xc98668f6e3482afcc05074782b69a29895d1fc2f7ef1e62c675033dfe100f9b3
transaction_hash: 0x6d0153da16e73bed919faa5af7c8b6192f3f5b31e570c25095d97264d457be96-515
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xb028b82a80c2d1e855ab4f3cd3a18ecf76838686
detected_at: 2026-03-30T10:39:36.822469
market_resolved_at: 2026-03-31T03:55:15.111076
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":3816,"pnl":30992.346315263538,"volume":943243.7615949999,"user_name":"Splatlouder","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":15630.21444499999,"avg_trade_size":156.3021444499999,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will \"Project Hail Mary\" 2nd Weekend Box Office be","Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-11.5)","Will \"Hoppers\" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 1","Will \"Project Hail Mary\" Opening Weekend Box Offic","Will \"Hoppers\" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 1","Will \"Ready or Not 2: Here I Come\" Opening Weekend","Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-12.5)"],"large_trades_count":0,"recent_trades":[]}


id: 1592407_0xcefc151474751934ea35db63dcd82aa52605f5f0096503f4614993a04f741559-2046
market_id: 1592407
market_question: EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?
condition_id: 0xc0d2d5a8105285585697e092739d2968e8a135013af69f83771baaf0e0c07408
transaction_hash: 0xcefc151474751934ea35db63dcd82aa52605f5f0096503f4614993a04f741559-2046
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0x34026514e0bda25f0f9fbb053fe3070cdc8c9446
detected_at: 2026-03-30T10:43:04.630629
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":1144,"pnl":109811.39661461466,"volume":24789980.363027003,"user_name":"madril","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-1413867-211a0283-5d4d-4321-b171-abade1c5afbe.jpg","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":148027.66613099998,"avg_trade_size":1480.2766613099998,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?","Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?","Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro Le","Katana FDV above $100M one day after launch?","US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?","Over $4M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale","Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?","Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) -","Will ZachXBT release his investigation on March 1?","US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?"],"large_trades_count":5,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":31039.00992,"price":0.999,"title":"Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?","timestamp":1772829783},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":12256.832739999998,"price":0.3291164414661764,"title":"Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?","timestamp":1772468329},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":6941.494,"price":0.26785828947165324,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","timestamp":1774448577},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5681.412,"price":0.55,"title":"EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?","timestamp":1774867228},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":5300.94641,"price":0.4751778604857961,"title":"Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?","timestamp":1772709889}]}

reasoning:
该交易由一名经验丰富且历史盈利丰厚的 FDV 专家执行。交易方向（看空）与当前盘前价格（$0.55-$0.70）背离，但符合高额空投（25%）上线后抛售的逻辑。目前市场呈现明显的聪明钱做空、散户做多的背离状态。

insider_evidence:
该交易者近期连续在多个 FDV 市场成功获利平仓，此次针对 EdgeX 的押注极有可能是基于对空投释放规模和抛售压力的精算，而非简单的内幕消息。目前的溢价买入 No Token 表明其对‘上线即巅峰’的剧本有极高信心。


id: 1640919_0x7df3a46035f331ddc4b28260d32ca4ebf704f8991d1a7991f09c76a3dd428d80-2033
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0x7df3a46035f331ddc4b28260d32ca4ebf704f8991d1a7991f09c76a3dd428d80-2033
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x0a854897a06d4999e5b2dde5693609f1428ffe9d
detected_at: 2026-03-30T11:41:31.093630
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":155,"pnl":778209.2223651728,"volume":11365904.646020997,"user_name":"TheQuietRisk","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-3064075-3602ef96-7553-4b8c-bdb6-0fb08045bcf7.png","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":1144082.8505450003,"avg_trade_size":11440.828505450003,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?","Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?","US forces enter Iran by April 30?","US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?","Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?","Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31","Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?"],"large_trades_count":16,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":590031.65184,"price":0.998,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1772481065},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":159818.06542,"price":0.899660545557111,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774812376},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":68038.2505,"price":0.8399784012345679,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774606071},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":48236.427,"price":0.719946671641791,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774859074},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":40300.0,"price":0.65,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774781226},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":21352.2477,"price":0.895,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774812376},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9516.811199999998,"price":0.69,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774812474},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9200.0,"price":0.4,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1772621825},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8993.0811,"price":0.3393615509433962,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1772906669},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8510.0,"price":0.37,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1772569105}]}

reasoning:
该笔交易发生在局势剧烈波动的背景下。交易者 'TheQuietRisk' 是 Polymarket 排名第 155 位的顶级专家，专注于伊朗局势。根据近期交易记录，该交易者刚刚以 0.998 的高价清仓了约 59 万美元的 '哈梅内伊在 3 月 31 日前下台' 的仓位，这暗示该事件已接近确定性发生。随后，该交易者立即反手加仓 '美军进入伊朗' 的 Yes Token。这种逻辑链条（政权更迭 -> 地面进入稳定局势）显示了极高的战略一致性。虽然公开新闻（如 BBC、卫报）已报道 1.7 万美军抵达海湾地区，但交易者在赔率 70% 的高位持续扫货，且其历史胜率极高，暗示其掌握了关于美军实际地面行动启动时机的更精准预判，超出了普通新闻分析的范畴。多个历史信号显示高排名鲸鱼在该市场持续流入，形成了显著的聪明钱共识。

insider_evidence:
1. 交易者刚在高点清仓了关联市场（哈梅内伊下台），获取了巨大战果并立即转场；2. 该交易者在该单一事件上的 Yes 总持仓已达 19.3 万美元，是市场第二大持有者；3. 市场中排名靠前的多位交易者（#58, #155）集体看多，而空头方多为大幅亏损或排名靠后的散户，信息差极其明显。


id: 1640919_0x3e5b41214b1493c0751d587f63048727633b75073200a2c34bf8efb7ef230d8f-2709
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0x3e5b41214b1493c0751d587f63048727633b75073200a2c34bf8efb7ef230d8f-2709
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x0a854897a06d4999e5b2dde5693609f1428ffe9d
detected_at: 2026-03-30T11:42:15.273808
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":155,"pnl":778209.2223651728,"volume":11365904.646020997,"user_name":"TheQuietRisk","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-3064075-3602ef96-7553-4b8c-bdb6-0fb08045bcf7.png","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":1144082.8505450003,"avg_trade_size":11440.828505450003,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?","Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?","US forces enter Iran by April 30?","US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?","Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?","Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31","Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?"],"large_trades_count":16,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":590031.65184,"price":0.998,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1772481065},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":159818.06542,"price":0.899660545557111,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774812376},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":68038.2505,"price":0.8399784012345679,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774606071},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":48236.427,"price":0.719946671641791,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774859074},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":40300.0,"price":0.65,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774781226},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":21352.2477,"price":0.895,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774812376},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9516.811199999998,"price":0.69,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774812474},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9200.0,"price":0.4,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1772621825},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8993.0811,"price":0.3393615509433962,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1772906669},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8510.0,"price":0.37,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1772569105}]}

reasoning:
交易者 'TheQuietRisk' 是该领域的顶级专家，其交易记录显示出极强的地缘政治分析能力。该笔交易与其在 3 月 30 日的整体调仓逻辑高度一致：在 3 月底截止日期前获利了结，并精准选择在特朗普『5天外交暂停期』即将结束、以及媒体频繁传出『美军特种部队拟突袭伊朗铀库存』的消息窗口期，重仓布局 4 月份的看多期权。多位高排名鲸鱼（Rank #58, #1234）在同一时间点集体买入，暗示这些『聪明钱』可能通过特定渠道掌握了外交谈判破裂或军事行动进入准备阶段的高置信度情报。

insider_evidence:
1) 该交易者从 3 月底头寸精准展期至 4 月头寸，表现出对行动时间表的极强掌控感。2) 交易时机与特朗普 5 天最后通牒的到期日（4 月 1 日）高度重合。3) 市场前两大持有者均为盈利百万级且排名 Top 200 的专家，形成了极强的利好共识，而对手方则是持续巨亏的账户。


id: 567560_0x7b277b4788fd396a98f1b56718eb3adffd275dccbd37cb1c779e2c6ca6ddff24-2570
market_id: 567560
market_question: Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
condition_id: 0x5ec80dc407457301f282a2b44341947afc700dfaa7923d14c8894e04bc63b03f
transaction_hash: 0x7b277b4788fd396a98f1b56718eb3adffd275dccbd37cb1c779e2c6ca6ddff24-2570
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319
insider_evidence: 缺乏直接内幕证据。主要驱动因素为 Median 和 21 Research 近期发布的公开民调数据，这些数据已在 Twitter 和国际媒体（Politico, Reuters）上广泛传播并定价。
detected_at: 2026-03-30T12:03:15.757430
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:08.846246
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":443,"pnl":292698.6059881381,"volume":50052843.595237,"user_name":"Flipadelphia","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-108046-72230f2f-afbd-40bd-9520-e507a5507184.webp","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":125140.83274,"avg_trade_size":1251.4083274,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?","Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Pri","Will JT Toppin win the 2026 Outstanding Player of ","Spread: Nebraska Cornhuskers (-1.5)","Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-4.5)","Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats","76ers vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5","Jets vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5","Will Cameron Boozer win the 2026 Outstanding Playe","Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31?"],"large_trades_count":8,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":16383.8052,"price":0.63,"title":"Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?","timestamp":1774586291},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10456.0713,"price":0.81,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774619979},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10050.0,"price":0.67,"title":"Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?","timestamp":1774763122},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8001.2420999999995,"price":0.51,"title":"Spread: Nebraska Cornhuskers (-1.5)","timestamp":1774566739},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7657.5436,"price":0.98,"title":"Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774866136},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5976.30669,"price":0.9092191689956352,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774788162},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5849.20104,"price":0.984,"title":"Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?","timestamp":1774867852},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5334.4367999999995,"price":0.99,"title":"Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774865934}]}

reasoning:
该交易者是排名第 443 位的高胜率用户，此次交易金额大幅超过其历史均值，显示出极强信心。然而，由于近期（3月25-29日）多份重量级民调公开显示欧尔班支持率大幅下滑且落后反对党双位数，该交易更像是对公开民调趋势的深度分析与确认。此外，交易者在相关市场持有对冲仓位（押注党派赢席位但领袖丢总理），体现了其作为专业预测者的策略性布局，而非掌握了未公开的单一内幕消息。


id: 1640919_0xebc28f8e140b351c488f2ffb700dc5942fc2112c7cb35073d0910f4da4f1603e-2577
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0xebc28f8e140b351c488f2ffb700dc5942fc2112c7cb35073d0910f4da4f1603e-2577
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x97f3f9f15c0063710c60d3ac9c40d17f4ba60eba
insider_evidence: 无直接内幕证据。但市场前二大持仓者均为百万级 PnL 的顶级掠食者且坚定看多，加上该交易者精准清空和平头寸转向冲突头寸，显示出其对地缘政治动态的高度敏感性。
detected_at: 2026-03-30T12:50:29.025872
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":35951,"pnl":2392.995010471276,"volume":686417.967738,"user_name":"Investnow","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-3182286-9175160f-b3d8-4be6-8d97-364087040b55.png","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":97913.42485400004,"avg_trade_size":979.1342485400004,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?","Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any ","Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of","Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?","Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at th","Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?","Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?","Trump announces end of military operations against","Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?","Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80%?"],"large_trades_count":4,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":10753.992,"price":0.9,"title":"Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?","timestamp":1769675990},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5999.999996,"price":0.7488650613622265,"title":"Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March?","timestamp":1773672151},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":5513.941,"price":0.83797476626424,"title":"Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1773381547},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":5311.59573,"price":0.9772783394571203,"title":"Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?","timestamp":1773070001}]}

reasoning:
该交易发生在重大公开军事报道（美军进入高度戒备、五角大楼准备地面行动）后的 48 小时内。交易者行为更像是基于高价值公开新闻的‘趋势跟随’，而非掌握了未公开的秘密。然而，多位高排名交易者在今日集中押注，可能暗示他们通过专业渠道研判出‘地面进入’的具体时间点将早于市场最初预期（4月底）。


id: 1466016_0x41560fb4ef222f6c3a1bb510b1b4939b5b977dd2f92759b6eb11bbaca8f498c4-2505
market_id: 1466016
market_question: US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
condition_id: 0x80059ff4e694f878c0498f6f3a067ee7ca62dc2fc46251a4287b58355ce47bc5
transaction_hash: 0x41560fb4ef222f6c3a1bb510b1b4939b5b977dd2f92759b6eb11bbaca8f498c4-2505
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0x020b3e1b425742b74b67723c5e0feb912665d13c
insider_evidence: 无明确非公开信息证据。交易逻辑完全可由 3 月 30 日发生的 E-3 预警机遭袭事件和伊朗之前对 15 点停火计划的正式拒绝来解释。
detected_at: 2026-03-30T13:58:52.954083
market_resolved_at: 2026-04-22T08:02:23.984962
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":949,"pnl":133664.65189632692,"volume":3299482.987411,"user_name":"BlackPeopleDontRecycle","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":1008165.633261,"avg_trade_size":10081.65633261,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Maduro out in 2025?","Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?","Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by","Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?","Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before June?","Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025?","Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2","Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korea","Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal ma","Xi Jinping out in 2025?"],"large_trades_count":53,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":73860.93053,"price":0.978989767525333,"title":"Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?","timestamp":1751369229},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":65423.80204,"price":0.9879827392441933,"title":"Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?","timestamp":1751454399},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":62748.3888,"price":0.999,"title":"Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election?","timestamp":1746867876},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":42872.84372,"price":0.8679936225832627,"title":"Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor","timestamp":1766266259},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":39685.9824,"price":0.927,"title":"Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election?","timestamp":1746194377},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":36385.857,"price":0.9,"title":"Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?","timestamp":1760101280},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":32194.094799999995,"price":0.58,"title":"Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?","timestamp":1760101330},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":31451.569559999996,"price":0.961,"title":"Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?","timestamp":1748875435},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":30230.540999999997,"price":0.9,"title":"Trump out as President before 2027?","timestamp":1767369881},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":26985.51167,"price":0.8995170556666666,"title":"Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?","timestamp":1760101382}]}

reasoning:
交易者排名较高，且其买入 No 的行为与当天发生的 '美军预警机被击毁' 及 '五角大楼准备地面行动' 的重大公开军事升级高度一致。该市场头部鲸鱼（如 myfirstpubes）已形成强烈的看空共识。


id: 567561_0x529dba0b03a56fbd8525aa7272081550a5ec14fcbb79af21c026714fd186263f-1358
market_id: 567561
market_question: Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
condition_id: 0x1480b819d03d4b6388d70e848b0384adf38c38d955cb783cdbcf6d4a436dee14
transaction_hash: 0x529dba0b03a56fbd8525aa7272081550a5ec14fcbb79af21c026714fd186263f-1358
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x823e8e6005c6672b71a3738283fc70211232903a
insider_evidence: 账号行为突变（Dormant account wake-up）与匈牙利大选敏感节点（Election-13 days）高度吻合，且交易规模远超其风险承受能力的常规逻辑。
detected_at: 2026-03-30T14:38:04.824203
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:09.723264
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":61523,"pnl":1115.831882,"volume":1449.130433,"user_name":"dancser","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":1,"total_volume":333.299999,"avg_trade_size":333.299999,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Brighton win on 2024-11-09?"],"large_trades_count":0,"recent_trades":[]}

reasoning:
该交易者为低排名账户，但其交易金额突然放大至历史平均值的40倍，且发生在距离大选不到两周的决战阶段。市场Yes方聚集了多位高盈利职业玩家，而No方多为巨亏账户。交易者在民调领先已部分定价的情况下重仓Yes，疑似掌握了最新的内部民调数据或竞选战术转折点。


id: 1592407_0x1e859813131b834545edaea375c1fdf0804ce6683ae9743d203022654e732ec3-1019
market_id: 1592407
market_question: EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?
condition_id: 0xc0d2d5a8105285585697e092739d2968e8a135013af69f83771baaf0e0c07408
transaction_hash: 0x1e859813131b834545edaea375c1fdf0804ce6683ae9743d203022654e732ec3-1019
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xac9da01c8c184853fde55d50009fd85af3a91687
insider_evidence: 无明确内幕证据。该笔交易更像是散户/中型鲸鱼在项目上线前的 FOMO 行为或基于盘前价的普通趋势跟踪。
detected_at: 2026-03-30T15:45:55.419218
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":26843,"pnl":3422.5154040355837,"volume":58101.980977,"user_name":"unbrokenheart","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":10,"total_volume":16913.415966,"avg_trade_size":1691.3415966,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playof","LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First S","Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?","Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5)","EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?","Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET","LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs"],"large_trades_count":1,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":9924.09597,"price":0.999,"title":"LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs","timestamp":1772276893}]}

reasoning:
交易者利用近期在体育市场的盈利进行复利博弈，交易方向与当前盘前价格（$0.53-0.56）高度一致。考虑到 $500M FDV 的临界价格为 $0.50，该交易本质上是对‘TGE首日价格不破发/不深跌’的公开趋势下注。且市场内顶级盈利大户（Armin-1Q）正重仓反向押注，削弱了该笔交易的‘内幕’权威性。


id: 1640919_0xe59c05c551d47afe140f11f44ba3b7c9ef91cad497103f8602d95acd7db3c7b7-1873
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0xe59c05c551d47afe140f11f44ba3b7c9ef91cad497103f8602d95acd7db3c7b7-1873
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x0a854897a06d4999e5b2dde5693609f1428ffe9d
detected_at: 2026-03-30T16:24:01.511778
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":160,"pnl":759893.8252788237,"volume":11515297.812660001,"user_name":"TheQuietRisk","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-3064075-3602ef96-7553-4b8c-bdb6-0fb08045bcf7.png","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":1171578.4230450005,"avg_trade_size":11715.784230450005,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US forces enter Iran by March 31?","US forces enter Iran by April 30?","US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?","US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31","Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?","Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 3"],"large_trades_count":18,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":590031.65184,"price":0.998,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1772481065},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":159818.06542,"price":0.899660545557111,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774812376},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":68038.2505,"price":0.8399784012345679,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774606071},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":48236.427,"price":0.719946671641791,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774859074},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":40300.0,"price":0.65,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774781226},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":21352.2477,"price":0.895,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774812376},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":15869.999999999998,"price":0.69,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774870808},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":11577.935500000001,"price":0.6989438813394587,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774870842},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9516.811199999998,"price":0.69,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774812474},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9200.0,"price":0.4,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1772621825}]}

reasoning:
交易者 TheQuietRisk 是该领域的顶级获利者，曾多次精准预测军事节点。此次在大额结清 3 月份盈利仓位后立即满仓 4 月份市场，且与排名 #58 的鲸鱼共识一致。公开新闻虽提及地面行动风险，但该交易者在 0.68 价格（尚有巨大不确定性时）大规模介入，表明其掌握了美军地面部队部署的具体节奏。

insider_evidence:
该交易者在 '美军 3 月 31 日前进入' 市场以 0.998 的价格（几乎满额成交）平仓，证明其对 3 月末的军事节点判断完全正确。现在的跨月滚仓是其核心策略的延续，显示其对 4 月份行动的时间表有非公开的深度认知。


id: 1484895_0x60a7171cd19b88193feafa7ac7764561905d924f3c85ef37ea12e29f7dc612fa-2689
market_id: 1484895
market_question: US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?
condition_id: 0x81b06cb917c9a2aabc67a7765bc3c640e88a699bbf451b29915049c0766cde04
transaction_hash: 0x60a7171cd19b88193feafa7ac7764561905d924f3c85ef37ea12e29f7dc612fa-2689
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0xdbade4c82fb72780a0db9a38f821d8671aba9c95
detected_at: 2026-03-30T16:32:09.379786
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:10.412577
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":90,"pnl":1089157.0333258798,"volume":78614046.21813901,"user_name":"SwissMiss","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/swissmiss_8da75aa4-05e7-444a-b87a-da4d38d2bb08_1741939822531.jpg","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":1369317.6604779996,"avg_trade_size":13693.176604779996,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Clavicular cry on stream by May 1, 2026","Will the SBC initiative be approved in Switzerland","US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?","US forces enter Iran by December 31?","Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed ch","US forces enter Iran by March 14?","US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?","Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April ","UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Herna","US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?"],"large_trades_count":43,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":130403.52347,"price":0.9779995310378965,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?","timestamp":1771969862},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":121500.00000000001,"price":0.81,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","timestamp":1771925736},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":99800.0,"price":0.998,"title":"Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?","timestamp":1773587329},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":99800.0,"price":0.998,"title":"Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?","timestamp":1773556217},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":93335.9,"price":0.7,"title":"UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Main Card)","timestamp":1771713498},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":51000.00000000001,"price":0.68,"title":"UFC 326: Rodolfo Bellato vs. Luke Fernandez (Light Heavyweight, Early Prelims)","timestamp":1772922999},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":45626.002,"price":0.94,"title":"Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?","timestamp":1772052884},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":41877.345680000006,"price":0.989,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?","timestamp":1771801252},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":39532.58638,"price":0.998,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?","timestamp":1771467502},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":38464.42892,"price":0.941,"title":"Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?","timestamp":1771949454}]}

reasoning:
该交易并非基于单一内幕文件，而是典型的‘专业模型 vs. 政治博弈’。交易者 SwissMiss 是 Polymarket 顶尖精英（Rank 90），其交易行为与 Rank 25 的聪明钱形成高度共识，共同对抗高亏损鲸鱼（PnL -$338k）所支撑的看多情绪。交易发生在总统散布停火乐观言论、而一线军事报告显示伊朗政权更趋强硬的节点，具有极高的专业判断价值。

insider_evidence:
1. 顶尖交易者共识：Rank 90 (SwissMiss) 与 Rank 25 (GCottrell93) 联手重仓 No。 2. 跨市场关联：交易者同时布局 Fed 主席提名市场，暗示其掌握了战事持续将影响华盛顿政治任命的宏观逻辑。 3. 逆向操作：在官方释放积极信号、Yes 价格虚高时果断入场，捕获 2.3 倍赔率。


id: 1629830_0x124562abb0a7c726587243e499ea4ff112d3b145528533f6e8923716ef6a7be5-3486
market_id: 1629830
market_question: Will Iran strike UAE again in March?
condition_id: 0x2cb096be1ef4c94e4286b318eb660c61983faa47e88017d241d3967d1bd59ce5
transaction_hash: 0x124562abb0a7c726587243e499ea4ff112d3b145528533f6e8923716ef6a7be5-3486
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x55d85e9de0a1608d7de2811039254e9bfdbacb13
insider_evidence: 无。交易者买入时，半岛电视台和路透社已报道了伊朗的认领声明及相关火灾视觉证据。
detected_at: 2026-03-30T16:47:29.922676
market_resolved_at: 2026-04-22T08:02:25.780702
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":356943,"pnl":16.207003,"volume":4476.476661000001,"user_name":"5255646","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":11,"total_volume":2172.349088,"avg_trade_size":197.4862807272727,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100%","Will Solana reach $350 in September?","Will Solana reach $220 in June?","Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November?","Will Iran strike UAE again in March?","Will Bitcoin reach $125K September 1–7?","Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' g","Chelsea wins the Premier League?","Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?","Will there not be a new Pope in 2025?"],"large_trades_count":0,"recent_trades":[]}

reasoning:
该交易发生在伊朗官方公开宣布打击阿联酋数小时后，属于典型的新闻反应交易。交易者排名较低且历史表现平平，本次大额注资更像是针对突发新闻的赌博。目前市场分歧在于'袭击是否实际着陆'，这是公开层面的定性争议，非内幕信息。


id: 1782688_0x8ba32d5c020681ee06cd4c0435bf7d2a5a38bd169c42a801843269bea3fe2240-861
market_id: 1782688
market_question: Over $9M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?
condition_id: 0x8b04dddbc3508f40d54d055f1e2c8b76344be9152f874583ad9a23e553ad4ce4
transaction_hash: 0x8ba32d5c020681ee06cd4c0435bf7d2a5a38bd169c42a801843269bea3fe2240-861
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0x6adcccb0ea0b93a66e67f0d7b2b625b135a8beba
insider_evidence: 无。交易金额与其资金体量极不匹配，且操作方向与当前公开的筹资增速放缓趋势一致。
detected_at: 2026-03-30T17:12:40.706824
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:11.281028
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2483072,"pnl":-296966.7116291827,"volume":12579139.836750003,"user_name":"pikachusplace","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-3598605-0f45c3a4-3ea7-4cce-afe2-0f959f8a77a3.jpg","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":691009.8779129996,"avg_trade_size":6910.098779129996,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - Dre","Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale","Celtics vs. Bucks","Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Cluj-","LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - ","Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeag","Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NRG (BO3) - ESL Pro Leag","Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Liquid (BO3) - Drea","Over $9M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale","Valorant: Paper Rex vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters San"],"large_trades_count":27,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":99979.999999,"price":0.44999999999909984,"title":"Celtics vs. Bucks","timestamp":1772492945},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":88381.839998,"price":0.5796952662212147,"title":"Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1","timestamp":1772547327},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":74924.63037,"price":0.999,"title":"Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2","timestamp":1771881404},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":50440.0095,"price":0.999,"title":"Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Monte (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1","timestamp":1772379151},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":30909.669998999998,"price":0.29997363098529206,"title":"Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2","timestamp":1772045038},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":24500.319999,"price":0.3746167476578022,"title":"Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2","timestamp":1771874414},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":20000.0,"price":0.3943482501720652,"title":"Cavaliers vs. Thunder","timestamp":1771787588},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":19999.999999,"price":0.4799999999952,"title":"Counter-Strike: NIP vs M80 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1","timestamp":1772472515},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":19799.999999,"price":0.2799999999909495,"title":"Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage","timestamp":1771422006},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":18737.04,"price":0.48,"title":"Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NRG (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1","timestamp":1772331115}]}

reasoning:
交易者 pikachusplace 虽然是高交易量鲸鱼，但历史胜率极低且 PnL 巨亏。本次 $500 的交易金额远低于其日常规模，且筹资进度放缓是公开可查的信息。该交易更符合其作为‘反向指标’或‘赌徒心态’下对公开信息的常规博弈，而非基于未公开数据的内幕行为。


id: 1640919_0xc50328561f7d9c632582ca98349f43b65e14ccee6b4896f30810233223f60ab2-1272
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0xc50328561f7d9c632582ca98349f43b65e14ccee6b4896f30810233223f60ab2-1272
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35
detected_at: 2026-03-30T17:29:37.055303
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":76,"pnl":1295183.999302142,"volume":102665827.58370501,"user_name":"ScottyNooo","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-2861114-c1c15cef-e455-4932-9b26-66ad799b1a4a.webp","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":62631.93178000001,"avg_trade_size":626.3193178000001,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US forces enter Iran by December 31?","Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Isr","Will there be no change in Fed interest rates afte","Trump announces end of military operations against","Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?","US forces enter Iran by March 31?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?","Will Iga Swiatek win the 2026 Women’s US Open?","Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?"],"large_trades_count":4,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9915.560829999999,"price":0.973,"title":"Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?","timestamp":1774814732},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8623.50906,"price":0.9759991783212628,"title":"Will Trump visit China by April 30?","timestamp":1774823828},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7275.856699999999,"price":0.7824578759227077,"title":"Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?","timestamp":1774751146},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5470.9823,"price":0.6786994013134879,"title":"Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?","timestamp":1774751064}]}

reasoning:
该交易由排名 #76 的地缘政治专家发起，且与多名 Top 200 内的顶级交易者形成强烈的聚集信号。交易时机精准卡在‘美军权衡提取伊朗铀行动’的特定情报流出之后。0.69 的买入价显示交易者并非在博弈赔率，而是在对高确定性的军事决策进行套利。虽然目前尚无公开的‘已进入’公告，但顶级资金的同步大额买入暗示美军特种部队可能已经获得授权或已在行动前夕。

insider_evidence:
1. 排名 #76 鲸鱼与排名 #160 鲸鱼在 24 小时内同步对同一方向进行多次五位数级别的加仓；2. 交易行为紧随‘1000磅铀提取行动’这一极其具体的军事目标报道之后；3. 交易者 ScottyNooo 的历史记录显示其专攻此类顶级政治内幕市场，胜率极高。


id: 1747817_0x957fbecc938a2cfffc0bc0b16e098a01e4ee0876f139961ddfe68ee6453062bc-776
market_id: 1747817
market_question: EdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch?
condition_id: 0x20232f7d347a5d23d9ab35c67c4e88ca215a3daea6e240e6efad652db4f28b9e
transaction_hash: 0x957fbecc938a2cfffc0bc0b16e098a01e4ee0876f139961ddfe68ee6453062bc-776
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x8aa3b7e8db3a24ff1cd3e4949efedcf1e906422f
reasoning: 交易行为高度依赖公开的盘前价格和 IEO 数据。交易者在代币上市当天凌晨买入，属于常规的趋势追逐或公开信息套利。考虑到该交易者 PnL 为负且排名极低，不存在掌握内幕信息的迹象。
insider_evidence: 无。该交易者仅是利用公开讨论的盘前 0.7 刀价格与 Polymarket 0.4 刀行权价之间的价差进行博弈。
detected_at: 2026-03-30T17:31:54.681693
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2403399,"pnl":-1554.848542293918,"volume":63158.01358,"user_name":"agdfdfgret4","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":15,"total_volume":6709.464776000001,"avg_trade_size":447.2976517333334,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["LoL: Gen.G vs LYON (BO5) - First Stand Group B","Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?","Trove FDV above $10M one day after launch?","Trove FDV above $60M one day after launch?","Trove FDV above $40M one day after launch?","EdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch?","Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-17?"],"large_trades_count":0,"recent_trades":[]}


id: 1484894_0x9bd785b4502ff730e2d82d8a8905bf9ddeae17ecd4ddf21d9d72a3b24d77e776-1266
market_id: 1484894
market_question: US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
condition_id: 0xa9937410f8aae98cc6440a7480ad832be5a1a998afcf5a6e77c6f5aa4c0f259f
transaction_hash: 0x9bd785b4502ff730e2d82d8a8905bf9ddeae17ecd4ddf21d9d72a3b24d77e776-1266
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x35bbbad2415fe5e39b12da9a316cdc80b022009b
insider_evidence: 交易者持仓中 0.88 价格的近期停火合约与 0.47 价格的远期停火合约之间存在巨大的逻辑矛盾，反映其掌握了停火已成定局的内幕信息。
detected_at: 2026-03-30T17:38:17.060693
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:12.840796
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":925,"pnl":136878.45435277428,"volume":26221302.1767,"user_name":"MisTKy","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-5070263-f290eb6b-11db-423d-b532-cd773195842b.jpg","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":617276.6424799999,"avg_trade_size":6172.766424799999,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US forces enter Iran by March 31?","Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?","Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by Ma","Will Trump say \"Six Seven\" this week? (March 29)","US forces enter Iran by April 30?","US forces enter Iran by December 31?","Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils","Will Trump visit China by March 31?","US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?"],"large_trades_count":25,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":145115.72653999997,"price":0.9200123965684657,"title":"Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils","timestamp":1774822188},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":73117.95414,"price":0.994,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1774792406},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":49700.0,"price":0.994,"title":"Netanyahu out by March 31?","timestamp":1774792390},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":27261.639,"price":0.9,"title":"Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774685973},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":22247.852000000003,"price":0.88,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?","timestamp":1774639567},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":21255.5959,"price":0.67,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774806094},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":21046.90277,"price":0.9115952826556144,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774790236},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":14592.6269,"price":0.89,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774787624},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":13295.9403,"price":0.93,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774775728},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":12422.88762,"price":0.858,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774785656}]}

reasoning:
该交易者是地缘政治市场的专业玩家，利用其近期在 '4月7日停火' 市场获得的确定性信息（定价 0.88），精准打击了定价仅为 0.47 的 '5月31日停火' 市场，形成了跨期套利。其交易时间点与以色列外交渠道流出的停火协议达成时间高度吻合。


id: 1484894_0xa0e9c56bedfea2e2a935693353628d5c371e756f0a734a204ee6ff7d01abba2e-4310
market_id: 1484894
market_question: US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
condition_id: 0xa9937410f8aae98cc6440a7480ad832be5a1a998afcf5a6e77c6f5aa4c0f259f
transaction_hash: 0xa0e9c56bedfea2e2a935693353628d5c371e756f0a734a204ee6ff7d01abba2e-4310
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x35bbbad2415fe5e39b12da9a316cdc80b022009b
insider_evidence: 该交易者同时持有4月冲突升级（Yes）和5月停火（Yes）的仓位，这种'先打后和'的逻辑更符合宏观策略推演，降低了其掌握单一停火内幕的可能性。
detected_at: 2026-03-30T17:39:51.492923
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:12.840796
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":925,"pnl":136878.45435277428,"volume":26221302.1767,"user_name":"MisTKy","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-5070263-f290eb6b-11db-423d-b532-cd773195842b.jpg","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":617276.6424799999,"avg_trade_size":6172.766424799999,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US forces enter Iran by March 31?","Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?","Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by Ma","Will Trump say \"Six Seven\" this week? (March 29)","US forces enter Iran by April 30?","US forces enter Iran by December 31?","Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils","Will Trump visit China by March 31?","US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?"],"large_trades_count":25,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":145115.72653999997,"price":0.9200123965684657,"title":"Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils","timestamp":1774822188},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":73117.95414,"price":0.994,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1774792406},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":49700.0,"price":0.994,"title":"Netanyahu out by March 31?","timestamp":1774792390},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":27261.639,"price":0.9,"title":"Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774685973},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":22247.852000000003,"price":0.88,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?","timestamp":1774639567},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":21255.5959,"price":0.67,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774806094},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":21046.90277,"price":0.9115952826556144,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774790236},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":14592.6269,"price":0.89,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774787624},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":13295.9403,"price":0.93,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774775728},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":12422.88762,"price":0.858,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774785656}]}

reasoning:
交易者是一个排名靠前且长期盈利的专业玩家，其持仓展现了极强的策略连贯性。他通过在不同时间节点（4月vs5月）和不同性质市场（冲突vs停火）的交叉布局，反映出其对地缘政治走向有深度研究。这更像是基于专业分析和数据速度优势的'聪明钱'操作，而非掌握了单一确定性的内幕公告。


id: 1782688_0x0318605e699df285f68739a9d45b8ef9ed37b74da395d4c1bb629386213c88f9-1741
market_id: 1782688
market_question: Over $9M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?
condition_id: 0x8b04dddbc3508f40d54d055f1e2c8b76344be9152f874583ad9a23e553ad4ce4
transaction_hash: 0x0318605e699df285f68739a9d45b8ef9ed37b74da395d4c1bb629386213c88f9-1741
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0x6adcccb0ea0b93a66e67f0d7b2b625b135a8beba
insider_evidence: 无。甚至存在反向证据：P2P 官方团队正在公开买入 YES 以操纵预期，而该交易者是在与官方团队做对手盘，由于其历史胜率极低，此信号更倾向于‘反向指标’。
detected_at: 2026-03-30T17:53:08.430147
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:11.281028
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2483072,"pnl":-296966.7116291827,"volume":12579139.836750003,"user_name":"pikachusplace","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-3598605-0f45c3a4-3ea7-4cce-afe2-0f959f8a77a3.jpg","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":690894.8854119995,"avg_trade_size":6908.948854119995,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - Dre","Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale","Celtics vs. Bucks","Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Cluj-","LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - ","Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeag","Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NRG (BO3) - ESL Pro Leag","Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Liquid (BO3) - Drea","Over $9M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale","Valorant: Paper Rex vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters San"],"large_trades_count":27,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":99979.999999,"price":0.44999999999909984,"title":"Celtics vs. Bucks","timestamp":1772492945},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":88381.839998,"price":0.5796952662212147,"title":"Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1","timestamp":1772547327},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":74924.63037,"price":0.999,"title":"Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2","timestamp":1771881404},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":50440.0095,"price":0.999,"title":"Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Monte (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1","timestamp":1772379151},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":30909.669998999998,"price":0.29997363098529206,"title":"Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2","timestamp":1772045038},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":24500.319999,"price":0.3746167476578022,"title":"Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2","timestamp":1771874414},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":20000.0,"price":0.3943482501720652,"title":"Cavaliers vs. Thunder","timestamp":1771787588},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":19999.999999,"price":0.4799999999952,"title":"Counter-Strike: NIP vs M80 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1","timestamp":1772472515},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":19799.999999,"price":0.2799999999909495,"title":"Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage","timestamp":1771422006},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":18737.04,"price":0.48,"title":"Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NRG (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1","timestamp":1772331115}]}

reasoning:
交易者 pikachusplace 是一个典型的高额亏损博彩型用户，PnL 接近负 30 万美元，其近期交易记录显示其擅长体育竞技而非 DeFi 投研。此笔 $595 的交易金额仅为其平均交易规模的 1/10，更像是在公售尾声根据公开看板数据进行的随机试探，而非基于未公开信息的重仓伏击。


id: 567560_0xb6da38bd9b8f6488b236789ad86d18bea98278a09d38163acedf70b624ebf644-2663
market_id: 567560
market_question: Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
condition_id: 0x5ec80dc407457301f282a2b44341947afc700dfaa7923d14c8894e04bc63b03f
transaction_hash: 0xb6da38bd9b8f6488b236789ad86d18bea98278a09d38163acedf70b624ebf644-2663
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0x18c96249fcd6e2d46587bf39941cf6df41052bfa
insider_evidence: 无明确内幕证据。虽然有新钱包特征，但买入行为更符合对公开民调和近期负面新闻（买票丑闻）的反应。
detected_at: 2026-03-30T21:12:43.866722
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:08.846246
resolved_outcome: No
reasoning:
交易者为无历史记录的新钱包，虽然投入金额较大且时机敏感（距选举12天），但押注方向与当前占主流的民调趋势（欧尔班落后）完全一致。交易价格并未显示出明显的‘提前抢跑’迹象，更像是受近期不断爆出的政府丑闻影响而入场的散户鲸鱼。


id: 1640919_0x4cf0610d1af4ad4e1118b5537f88d11d21f440bd87baf87201e00f70386c975f-1242
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0x4cf0610d1af4ad4e1118b5537f88d11d21f440bd87baf87201e00f70386c975f-1242
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35
detected_at: 2026-03-30T22:22:18.831590
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":76,"pnl":1295183.999302142,"volume":102665827.58370501,"user_name":"ScottyNooo","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-2861114-c1c15cef-e455-4932-9b26-66ad799b1a4a.webp","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":58182.36146000001,"avg_trade_size":581.8236146,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US forces enter Iran by December 31?","Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Isr","Will there be no change in Fed interest rates afte","Trump announces end of military operations against","Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?","US forces enter Iran by March 31?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?","Will Iga Swiatek win the 2026 Women’s US Open?","Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?"],"large_trades_count":3,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":11788.994999999999,"price":0.69,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774891623},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9915.560829999999,"price":0.973,"title":"Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?","timestamp":1774814732},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8623.50906,"price":0.9759991783212628,"title":"Will Trump visit China by April 30?","timestamp":1774823828}]}

reasoning:
该交易由排名第 76 的顶尖鲸鱼发起，且与市场前 200 名内多位百万级盈利交易者（#58, #160）方向高度一致，形成了强大的‘聪明钱共识’。虽然地面入侵属于宏观事件，但交易者在 2500 名陆战队部署消息传出后立即重仓，显示了极强的情报处理速度和对军事行动节奏的精准把握。该交易者 1 亿美元的总交易量与其极少的交易频次，暗示其背后可能有极高质量的数据分析支持或地缘政治专家背景。

insider_evidence:
1. 过去 24 小时内有 6 笔异常大额 Yes 买入，全部来自高 PnL 排行榜用户。2. 交易时机与美军地面部队部署的关键新闻节奏同步。3. 市场看多方与看空方的盈亏表现呈现极端两极分化，顶尖交易者全线看多。


id: 1782688_0x507a8797055458893c6356b658d71cb86d910a55024f15b5096d9147efeea3ec-1622
market_id: 1782688
market_question: Over $9M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?
condition_id: 0x8b04dddbc3508f40d54d055f1e2c8b76344be9152f874583ad9a23e553ad4ce4
transaction_hash: 0x507a8797055458893c6356b658d71cb86d910a55024f15b5096d9147efeea3ec-1622
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0x1e0e8f5f626370cbc37e4b09a65e5452d9805001
insider_evidence: 1. 交易时间点位于官方募集截止日次日；2. 社交媒体披露 P2P 团队存在链上对赌行为；3. 交易者画像显示其为该特定领域的专业/知情玩家。
detected_at: 2026-03-31T00:41:20.870479
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:11.281028
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":4452,"pnl":25838.603984479018,"volume":348294.254615,"user_name":"bigbraininvestor","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-3733311-a23b51b7-ce37-4b05-a739-4796fe95cb2e.JPG","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":24396.767610587012,"avg_trade_size":243.9676761058701,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Over $25M committed to the P2P Protocol public sal","Over $18M committed to the P2P Protocol public sal","Over $30M committed to the P2P Protocol public sal","Over $60M committed to the P2P Protocol public sal","Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale","Over $20M committed to the P2P Protocol public sal","Over $50M committed to the P2P Protocol public sal","Over $9M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale","Over $6M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale","Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sal"],"large_trades_count":0,"recent_trades":[]}

reasoning:
交易精准发生在募资结束后的结算真空期（3月31日）。交易者专注于该项目的单一事件，且历史表现优异。考虑到已有舆论指控项目方通过关联地址在 Polymarket 操纵/博弈，该笔交易在市场尚未完全定价‘募集失败’时以 0.7 价格锁定 No，表现出极强的确定性优势。


id: 1640919_0x0930a5d441474eb12a9f0777a45568d0de1767e4134dde0ba0e34c0975ea94bb-2707
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0x0930a5d441474eb12a9f0777a45568d0de1767e4134dde0ba0e34c0975ea94bb-2707
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35
insider_evidence: 该鲸鱼在 2 小时内从 $44k 纯看多转为买入 $25k 反向 Token 止损/对冲，表明其立场发生了根本性转变。
detected_at: 2026-03-31T00:45:31.837323
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":76,"pnl":1295183.999302142,"volume":102665827.58370501,"user_name":"ScottyNooo","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-2861114-c1c15cef-e455-4932-9b26-66ad799b1a4a.webp","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":94011.86625999994,"avg_trade_size":940.1186625999994,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US forces enter Iran by December 31?","Will there be no change in Fed interest rates afte","US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?","Trump announces end of military operations against","Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?","US forces enter Iran by March 31?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?","Will Iga Swiatek win the 2026 Women’s US Open?","Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?"],"large_trades_count":4,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":33063.8848,"price":0.68,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774909281},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":11788.994999999999,"price":0.69,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774891623},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9915.560829999999,"price":0.973,"title":"Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?","timestamp":1774814732},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8623.50906,"price":0.9759991783212628,"title":"Will Trump visit China by April 30?","timestamp":1774823828}]}

reasoning:
该交易者是排名第 76 的顶级鲸鱼，此前数小时曾重仓看多（Yes），但在 08:44 UTC 突然买入 No 进行大规模对冲。这一时点恰逢特朗普发布‘正与新政权谈和’以及‘众议院确认弹劾’的重大传闻/新闻。这笔交易更像是一个职业交易者对突发政治变局的‘极速反馈’。由于其买入 No 的价格（0.33）相对于 Yes（0.68）极具赔率优势，反映出该交易者认为战争风险已因政治内乱和谈判进展而显著下降。这属于高级信息解读能力而非内幕泄露。


id: 1484894_0x25584799a110ec92a09dea54b76385aad83582829ae1c190f8fe42fdd1a7756c-2045
market_id: 1484894
market_question: US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
condition_id: 0xa9937410f8aae98cc6440a7480ad832be5a1a998afcf5a6e77c6f5aa4c0f259f
transaction_hash: 0x25584799a110ec92a09dea54b76385aad83582829ae1c190f8fe42fdd1a7756c-2045
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xc6587b11a2209e46dfe3928b31c5514a8e33b784
insider_evidence: 无。交易价格 0.49 完美贴合当时社交媒体传闻引发的市场均价，未表现出先于消息爆发的预判性。
detected_at: 2026-03-31T00:52:31.502441
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:12.840796
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2484695,"pnl":-332357.0807286981,"volume":125799264.07410999,"user_name":"Erasmus.","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-642445-92826f3c-3576-4719-880c-027883552860.png","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":2869081.588713001,"avg_trade_size":28690.81588713001,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed ch","Will the Democratic Party control the House after ","US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?","Will there be no change in Fed interest rates afte","US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?","US forces enter Iran by March 31?","Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?","US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31","Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?"],"large_trades_count":50,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":357840.0,"price":0.994,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?","timestamp":1772329277},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":299400.0,"price":0.998,"title":"Netanyahu out by March 31?","timestamp":1774913743},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":284241.80804,"price":0.9474726934666666,"title":"Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?","timestamp":1772309513},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":240113.8099,"price":0.7999958749773983,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?","timestamp":1772809199},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":187691.55458,"price":0.9384577729,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1773087197},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":97700.0,"price":0.977,"title":"Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?","timestamp":1772640469},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":97548.19429,"price":0.9754819429,"title":"Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?","timestamp":1772640467},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":86140.0,"price":0.73,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1773530459},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":83762.535,"price":0.8729809929149565,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1772743421},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":73396.21542,"price":0.9899977477064319,"title":"Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?","timestamp":1772640509}]}

reasoning:
该交易发生在推特大规模流传‘路透社报道伊朗同意停火’（尽管随后被辟谣）之后。交易者 Erasmus. 的历史盈亏表现极差，且其交易时间落后于更高排名的‘聪明钱’。这笔交易更像是散户鲸鱼在消息刺激下的追涨行为。


id: 1484895_0xff627d745a643656d71aa8d3324cb6487a8450d6a0fe9fee8e5ed18c969b468a-2158
market_id: 1484895
market_question: US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?
condition_id: 0x81b06cb917c9a2aabc67a7765bc3c640e88a699bbf451b29915049c0766cde04
transaction_hash: 0xff627d745a643656d71aa8d3324cb6487a8450d6a0fe9fee8e5ed18c969b468a-2158
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xc6587b11a2209e46dfe3928b31c5514a8e33b784
insider_evidence: 无。相反，该交易者的入场价格 (0.58) 反映了市场对特朗普言论的普遍怀疑（若协议真实落地，价格应接近 0.9+）。
detected_at: 2026-03-31T00:54:54.616935
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:10.412577
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2484695,"pnl":-332357.0807286981,"volume":125799264.07410999,"user_name":"Erasmus.","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-642445-92826f3c-3576-4719-880c-027883552860.png","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":2862437.778583001,"avg_trade_size":28624.37778583001,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed ch","Will the Democratic Party control the House after ","US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?","Will there be no change in Fed interest rates afte","US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?","US forces enter Iran by March 31?","Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?","US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31","Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?"],"large_trades_count":50,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":357840.0,"price":0.994,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?","timestamp":1772329277},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":299400.0,"price":0.998,"title":"Netanyahu out by March 31?","timestamp":1774913743},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":284241.80804,"price":0.9474726934666666,"title":"Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?","timestamp":1772309513},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":240113.8099,"price":0.7999958749773983,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?","timestamp":1772809199},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":187691.55458,"price":0.9384577729,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1773087197},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":97700.0,"price":0.977,"title":"Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?","timestamp":1772640469},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":97548.19429,"price":0.9754819429,"title":"Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?","timestamp":1772640467},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":86140.0,"price":0.73,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1773530459},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":83762.535,"price":0.8729809929149565,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1772743421},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":73396.21542,"price":0.9899977477064319,"title":"Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?","timestamp":1772640509}]}

reasoning:
交易者 Erasmus. 具有明显的‘高额亏损博弈者’特征，其交易时机滞后于特朗普在社交媒体上的公开宣传。市场顶级盈利者（Smart Money）集体站在其对立面（买入 No），暗示该交易更多是基于对公开新闻的乐观解读或盲目跟风，而非掌握非公开信息。


id: 1484895_0xe27c670e7f4e23d5df16e096412dd15cc6a63a5de2dbc73ce733335da7733dc5-2074
market_id: 1484895
market_question: US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?
condition_id: 0x81b06cb917c9a2aabc67a7765bc3c640e88a699bbf451b29915049c0766cde04
transaction_hash: 0xe27c670e7f4e23d5df16e096412dd15cc6a63a5de2dbc73ce733335da7733dc5-2074
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xbc43a2f0deb85ba4ad316300762972089c911540
insider_evidence: 买入时机与媒体报道的‘美方高级顾问斡旋停火’传闻高度吻合，且该交易者近期频繁参与伊朗高管变动等高敏感市场，显示其对特定信息源有极高关注度。
detected_at: 2026-03-31T01:12:03.569203
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:10.412577
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":1046,"pnl":120280.56731047694,"volume":1306183.799894,"user_name":"westminster","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":621884.489357,"avg_trade_size":6218.84489357,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Iran leadership change by March 31?","US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?","Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?","Netanyahu out by end of 2026?","US forces enter Iran by March 31?","US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?","Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15","Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?","US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31"],"large_trades_count":33,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":94863.69546,"price":0.9486369546,"title":"Netanyahu out by March 31?","timestamp":1773528727},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":47392.563220000004,"price":0.9478512644,"title":"Netanyahu out by March 31?","timestamp":1773532391},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":38811.57003,"price":0.9981213659796598,"title":"US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?","timestamp":1772265963},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":22254.43346,"price":0.9980734722763517,"title":"Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?","timestamp":1772266571},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":19063.1963,"price":0.953159815,"title":"Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?","timestamp":1772980047},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":18951.69998,"price":0.947584999,"title":"Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?","timestamp":1772291033},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":15294.03064,"price":0.998,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","timestamp":1772265727},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":14970.0,"price":0.998,"title":"US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?","timestamp":1772265747},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":13638.5414,"price":0.4691335064910048,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1772277609},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":13309.786199999999,"price":0.44365954001478863,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1773056463}]}

reasoning:
该交易者 (westminster) 长期深耕中东局势市场，具备一定的领域专长。其买入时机恰逢以色列 12 频道等媒体报道 Kushner 与 Witkoff 正在协调“为期一个月的停火机制”之际。然而，市场顶级交易者（如排名 #90 的 SwissMiss）在数小时前刚刚反向重仓押注 No，且当前价格（0.59）已低于该鲸鱼买入价（0.62），显示市场并未形成内幕共识。该交易更像是在地缘政治高波动期的方向性博弈，而非掌握确凿未公开信息的行为。


id: 665374_0xe8ce5323ed652a7b9c6b7fd3dcc526e9eb704ff4601d077db505acb5d915e2b6-2770
market_id: 665374
market_question: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
condition_id: 0x5db999fad322cea2914535aae5517060c3f80ad6d8c0231cde2124a434d16846
transaction_hash: 0xe8ce5323ed652a7b9c6b7fd3dcc526e9eb704ff4601d077db505acb5d915e2b6-2770
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xeed10490c38abdd3e6faaf69f9dec6f5d9efd782
insider_evidence: 交易者在买入前已有大量石油多头头寸，此举更符合地缘政治联动的套利或趋势追随行为。
detected_at: 2026-03-31T02:57:50.709866
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":6182,"pnl":18067.342018349053,"volume":508256.00205400004,"user_name":"luckyduck42","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":140845.88489548198,"avg_trade_size":1408.4588489548198,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Felix Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch","Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?","Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?","Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March","Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of Marc","Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in April?","Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch","Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?","Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch","Felix Protocol FDV above $25M one day after launch"],"large_trades_count":6,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":19989.867819332296,"price":0.9871702763897121,"title":"Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in April?","timestamp":1774689837},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":19065.37554,"price":0.999,"title":"Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March?","timestamp":1774651763},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9999.999999,"price":0.37714868942988833,"title":"Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?","timestamp":1774512655},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9957.571148421286,"price":0.8793782707616294,"title":"Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?","timestamp":1774689729},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":5279.49522,"price":0.999,"title":"Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?","timestamp":1774920981},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5205.299999,"price":0.4133704250831042,"title":"Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?","timestamp":1774512687}]}

reasoning:
该交易者是一位专注于能源市场的专业投机者。这笔交易是对已公开的‘伊斯法罕空袭’和‘地面行动传闻’的直接反应。由于其交易时间点位于新闻发布之后，且其持仓方向与顶级职业交易者（如排名 #88 的 Car）背道而驰，表明其更多是在进行基于公开信息的宏观博弈，而非掌握非公开的内部计划。


id: 1747817_0x3484f6a9838a4463191441d8ededdf57b0e0ebc1bd50480a20e5cbb59cd4ade6-2166
market_id: 1747817
market_question: EdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch?
condition_id: 0x20232f7d347a5d23d9ab35c67c4e88ca215a3daea6e240e6efad652db4f28b9e
transaction_hash: 0x3484f6a9838a4463191441d8ededdf57b0e0ebc1bd50480a20e5cbb59cd4ade6-2166
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x3106798d83ca2e5c522563496a6015f6526e8a34
insider_evidence: 无。该用户甚至没有通过该事件的其他市场进行对冲，呈现出单纯的投机特征。高排名玩家集体看空是反驳内幕性的强力证据。
detected_at: 2026-03-31T03:03:41.993141
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2210325,"pnl":-201.36380428479907,"volume":21207.518513,"user_name":"fuli66688","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":7823.2866300198575,"avg_trade_size":78.23286630019858,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in April 2026","LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs DMG Esports (BO3) - EMEA","Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - BLAST Open ","XRP Up or Down - March 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET","Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between","Kigali 2: Marco Cecchinato vs Arthur Gea","Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps aft","Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL ","Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18?","Counter-Strike: Liquid vs OG (BO3) - Roman Imperiu"],"large_trades_count":0,"recent_trades":[]}

reasoning:
交易者排名极低且历史 PnL 为负，属于典型的散户鲸鱼。虽然其交易金额大幅超过其历史平均值，但其押注方向（Yes）与市场中数个高排名、高盈利的‘聪明钱’账号（No）完全相反。这表明该交易更可能是基于公开盘前价格的散户追涨，而非掌握了非公开的托盘或利好信息。


id: 1743074_0xa67affe10e95976c6f061379a91e043e5989636d47b58ec7e02d2bf7bf7c9605-2319
market_id: 1743074
market_question: Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on April 3, 2026?
condition_id: 0xcf1c70c971e48777c51b94deb91281a2693ac76e420dc528bd9cc7302a695a2f
transaction_hash: 0xa67affe10e95976c6f061379a91e043e5989636d47b58ec7e02d2bf7bf7c9605-2319
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0x1f693e9d56d9dc2d84a10b19e1d4ebc44430c3bd
insider_evidence: 新钱包单笔重仓 + 目标市场为极低容错率的精准数据区间 + 符合当前 Silver Bulletin 的负面趋势。
detected_at: 2026-03-31T03:31:33.511716
market_resolved_at: 2026-04-22T08:02:29.566451
resolved_outcome: No
reasoning:
交易者买入 No 是基于目前支持率快速下滑的公开趋势。0.4% 的命中区间极其严苛，在波动率放大的背景下，‘不命中’是大概率事件。然而，使用全新钱包进行单笔数千美元的定向狙击，暗示其可能掌握了某些即将计入模型的领先指标（如即将发布的州级民调数据）。


id: 1578181_0xcdb80d91c41117bd504d0a88064b779ffa364a470ba60c7aa5214a6b22397367-1685
market_id: 1578181
market_question: Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch?
condition_id: 0xeb196c24738383bf2fc0aeeb8fc5e96e72dcf161e19e74ffd305883cc3951496
transaction_hash: 0xcdb80d91c41117bd504d0a88064b779ffa364a470ba60c7aa5214a6b22397367-1685
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xe51e9a9ec9332c1ccf32a51916ec0a49a0b85e7f
insider_evidence: 1. 交易者是该市场 Yes 侧持仓第一大户；2. 交易行为高度集中在同类 FDV 市场；3. 押注时机正值官方 TGE 预期窗口关闭前夕。
detected_at: 2026-03-31T05:11:21.025508
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":44063,"pnl":1878.268880315746,"volume":42662.001887,"user_name":"Mollytrading","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":39,"total_volume":22382.545936000002,"avg_trade_size":573.9114342564103,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Espresso FDV above $200M one day after launch?","Espresso FDV above $300M one day after launch?","Bitway FDV above $100M one day after launch?","Perle Labs FDV above $200M one day after launch?","Katana FDV above $100M one day after launch?","Yellow FDV above $200M one day after launch?","Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch?","Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?","Unitas Labs FDV above $100M one day after launch?","Yellow FDV above $50M one day after launch?"],"large_trades_count":0,"recent_trades":[]}

reasoning:
该交易者是专注于 FDV 预测市场的垂直领域玩家。押注时机精准切中项目 Q1 截止日及 Coinbase 上币预期。考虑到该项目 $35M 的融资规模和 $200M 的预售定价，0.48 的价格（对应 <50% 概率）存在显著的定价低估。交易者利用了对代币经济学底价和项目进度的深入研究，存在一定的信息领先性，但不足以判定为核心内幕交易。


id: 665374_0x2cda0c1ca26058ae10125a1569a24b367cb9126c20a2ec6963d1d79a14a0cd88-756
market_id: 665374
market_question: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
condition_id: 0x5db999fad322cea2914535aae5517060c3f80ad6d8c0231cde2124a434d16846
transaction_hash: 0x2cda0c1ca26058ae10125a1569a24b367cb9126c20a2ec6963d1d79a14a0cd88-756
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xeed10490c38abdd3e6faaf69f9dec6f5d9efd782
insider_evidence: 无明确内幕证据。该交易者在关联市场（原油）有重仓，此举更符合其一贯的‘战争看多’投资组合逻辑。
detected_at: 2026-03-31T06:34:36.407344
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":6348,"pnl":17566.68605408808,"volume":516420.853164,"user_name":"luckyduck42","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":145431.518493482,"avg_trade_size":1454.31518493482,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?","Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March","Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch","Felix Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch","Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch","Felix Protocol FDV above $25M one day after launch","Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of Marc","Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?","Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in April?","Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?"],"large_trades_count":6,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":19989.867819332296,"price":0.9871702763897121,"title":"Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in April?","timestamp":1774689837},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":19065.37554,"price":0.999,"title":"Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March?","timestamp":1774651763},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9999.999999,"price":0.37714868942988833,"title":"Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?","timestamp":1774512655},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9957.571148421286,"price":0.8793782707616294,"title":"Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?","timestamp":1774689729},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":5279.49522,"price":0.999,"title":"Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?","timestamp":1774920981},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5205.299999,"price":0.4133704250831042,"title":"Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?","timestamp":1774512687}]}

reasoning:
交易者是一个专注于地缘政治和能源市场的专业投资者。交易时机（3月31日）正值美军增兵和战情室会议的公开新闻爆发期，其买入行为完全可以用对公开新闻的激进解读来解释。此外，其正在与排名更高的精英交易员（No方）博弈，显示市场对此并无共识。


id: 1747817_0x4e9a7d523305ff79b6782e7d759a50cfb18447fb042679ef2d51100d319b130f-2131
market_id: 1747817
market_question: EdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch?
condition_id: 0x20232f7d347a5d23d9ab35c67c4e88ca215a3daea6e240e6efad652db4f28b9e
transaction_hash: 0x4e9a7d523305ff79b6782e7d759a50cfb18447fb042679ef2d51100d319b130f-2131
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xa91a102aaecb770ab776dd4a6372f822a384c6c9
insider_evidence: 无。其入场价格（0.56）与市场隐含概率基本持平，且与顶级交易者的获利盘方向相反，缺乏信息优势支撑。
detected_at: 2026-03-31T06:46:38.113671
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":103954,"pnl":387.4808528412179,"volume":8671.604321,"user_name":"MAkeloo","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":28,"total_volume":7351.744998589007,"avg_trade_size":262.5623213781788,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Based FDV above $75M one day after launch?","EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?","Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sal","EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?","Over $12M committed to the P2P Protocol public sal","Over $25M committed to the P2P Protocol public sal","Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?","EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?"],"large_trades_count":0,"recent_trades":[]}

reasoning:
该交易者排名较低且历史表现平平，本次交易金额虽显著高于其均值，但完全基于 $EDGE 代币 TGE 当日的公开盘前价格锚定（FDV 5-7亿）。相比之下，市场内排名前 1100 的多位顶级高收益交易者均重仓 No（看空），认为 TGE 后 FDV 会跌破 4 亿。这表明该鲸鱼属于典型的‘随大流’散户，而非掌握内部信息的知情者。


id: 1706212_0xf25700297c0f7a7b93c92fc828803f8369e92be4ed34a5c6c06d2e15f374c5b0-1153
market_id: 1706212
market_question: Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026?
condition_id: 0xdaf306854808eb73447e3fd8cd3736377b23e0e9e08234909fdb486b47462c99
transaction_hash: 0xf25700297c0f7a7b93c92fc828803f8369e92be4ed34a5c6c06d2e15f374c5b0-1153
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0x3e887528098ca040fa89f832bce604d99987df66
reasoning: 交易者利用了新闻热度与市场结算规则之间的巨大鸿沟。大众对‘袭击’的定义是‘发射了’，而该市场定义是‘击中了’。高排名交易者集体站队‘No’，反映出他们掌握了详细的拦截报告或对防空效能的专业判断。
insider_evidence: 3月28-30日的袭击已被主流媒体报道，但截止31日交易时，没有任何可靠信源证实地面撞击。多名Top 5000交易者在此节点集中押注No，形成了明显的聪明钱结盟。
detected_at: 2026-03-31T06:47:46.153561
market_resolved_at: 2026-04-22T08:02:21.913973
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":12089,"pnl":9067.762767229535,"volume":301808.316733,"user_name":"jayames1990","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":127837.96597476651,"avg_trade_size":1278.379659747665,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June","Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March?","Will Germany vs. Ghana end in a draw?","Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils","Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?","Counter-Strike: megoshort vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - CCT","Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET","Knicks vs. Lakers","Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March?","Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - PREMIER "],"large_trades_count":9,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":10225.334429999999,"price":0.999,"title":"Dota 2: Team Liquid vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage","timestamp":1773077607},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10223.769100000001,"price":0.9251902954178337,"title":"Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FaZe (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2","timestamp":1773078717},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8798.169998,"price":0.8595680680895953,"title":"Dota 2: Team Liquid vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage","timestamp":1773075557},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":8536.8824,"price":0.92,"title":"Bulls vs. Kings","timestamp":1773025245},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":8312.78713,"price":0.7033046885641743,"title":"Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?","timestamp":1774033203},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":7854.2026000000005,"price":0.7107875656108598,"title":"Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FaZe (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2","timestamp":1773080055},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7423.380000000001,"price":0.8,"title":"Bulls vs. Kings","timestamp":1773024661},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5579.409999,"price":0.5986676230097808,"title":"Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?","timestamp":1773840691},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":5399.18124,"price":0.8872950062366577,"title":"Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?","timestamp":1773024415}]}


id: 567560_0x8c766ebbc41bbe95d546ab78f61cc98bec1f839785a460d34797e91fd1f66007-3285
market_id: 567560
market_question: Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
condition_id: 0x5ec80dc407457301f282a2b44341947afc700dfaa7923d14c8894e04bc63b03f
transaction_hash: 0x8c766ebbc41bbe95d546ab78f61cc98bec1f839785a460d34797e91fd1f66007-3285
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x14cf467786bb4cf1178437df8b6639a1bce3c320
insider_evidence: 交易金额与其上一笔获利金额完全吻合，说明其资金流向明确，是获利后的再投资行为；押注方向逆民调但符合赔率博弈逻辑。
detected_at: 2026-03-31T06:52:10.074370
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:08.846246
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":19866,"pnl":4884.70357893649,"volume":70582.064331,"user_name":"UASUAVeee","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":6,"total_volume":48271.270229999995,"avg_trade_size":8045.211704999999,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Trump visit China by March 31?","US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?","Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31","Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor "],"large_trades_count":5,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":13901.349998999998,"price":0.3664463663555871,"title":"Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?","timestamp":1774939773},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":13901.34474,"price":0.999,"title":"Will Trump visit China by March 31?","timestamp":1774937821},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5763.059983,"price":0.9543953093774146,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1772308683},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":5722.46551,"price":0.9476728277502137,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1772309203},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5722.459999000001,"price":0.41123619042313714,"title":"Will Trump visit China by March 31?","timestamp":1772309251}]}

reasoning:
该交易者 (UASUAVeee) 表现出明显的 '收益滚动' 行为，将刚刚从特朗普市场赢取的 $1.39 万资金全部梭哈进欧尔班 Yes。虽然是逆民调的异常大额操作，但由于交易者排名并不靠前，且市场上存在多位盈利极高的顶尖高手 (如 lava-lava) 站在其对立面，这更像是一次基于 '欧尔班能利用国家机器逆风翻盘' 的高风险政治押注。


id: 1640919_0xa5aa18733879b1bd63b1aae57e86ab04368925d6be817234570f940f73a1f4e0-1753
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0xa5aa18733879b1bd63b1aae57e86ab04368925d6be817234570f940f73a1f4e0-1753
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x0a854897a06d4999e5b2dde5693609f1428ffe9d
detected_at: 2026-03-31T07:12:37.562448
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":164,"pnl":728077.7701827969,"volume":11867094.602659998,"user_name":"TheQuietRisk","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-3064075-3602ef96-7553-4b8c-bdb6-0fb08045bcf7.png","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":1232290.3320050002,"avg_trade_size":12322.903320050002,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US forces enter Iran by March 31?","US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 3","US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?","Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?","US forces enter Iran by April 30?","Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?","Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?"],"large_trades_count":23,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":590031.65184,"price":0.998,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1772481065},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":159818.06542,"price":0.899660545557111,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774812376},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":68038.2505,"price":0.8399784012345679,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774606071},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":48236.427,"price":0.719946671641791,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774859074},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":40300.0,"price":0.65,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774781226},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":24477.7591,"price":0.6799377527777778,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774887673},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":21352.2477,"price":0.895,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774812376},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":15869.999999999998,"price":0.69,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774870808},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":14960.000000000002,"price":0.17,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1774901343},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":12414.5621,"price":0.6896978944444444,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774887713}]}

reasoning:
交易者具有极高的历史胜率且深耕伊朗局势。其交易时机与美军精英部队（82nd Airborne, Marines）抵达该地区的公开军事动态高度吻合，但其在大额买入时的价格（0.62）相对于当时极度紧张的战场传闻仍具有一定的风险溢价，显示其可能掌握了更具体的部队动向或战备状态分析。

insider_evidence:
该交易者在3月31日截止日期前夕，系统性地将资金从即将到期的短期市场移往4月30日市场，表现出对军事行动‘必然发生但时机微调’的强烈信心。此外，Twitter上出现了针对同一方向的全新匿名大额钱包（$170k+），暗示可能存在未公开的作战简报泄露。


id: 1640919_0x1a7c114e922175e57e7bcf0ea09cd285501f0ce9494feff405edd937670c7682-3835
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0x1a7c114e922175e57e7bcf0ea09cd285501f0ce9494feff405edd937670c7682-3835
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x0a854897a06d4999e5b2dde5693609f1428ffe9d
insider_evidence: 在 3 月 31 日截止日期前夕，快速从失败/过期的 3 月市场撤离并加倍下注 4 月市场，且在哈梅内伊相关历史事件中表现出 100% 的准确率。
detected_at: 2026-03-31T07:11:41.034448
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":164,"pnl":728077.7701827969,"volume":11867094.602659998,"user_name":"TheQuietRisk","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-3064075-3602ef96-7553-4b8c-bdb6-0fb08045bcf7.png","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":1232290.3320050002,"avg_trade_size":12322.903320050002,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US forces enter Iran by March 31?","US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 3","US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?","Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?","US forces enter Iran by April 30?","Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?","Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?"],"large_trades_count":23,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":590031.65184,"price":0.998,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1772481065},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":159818.06542,"price":0.899660545557111,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774812376},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":68038.2505,"price":0.8399784012345679,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774606071},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":48236.427,"price":0.719946671641791,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774859074},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":40300.0,"price":0.65,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774781226},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":24477.7591,"price":0.6799377527777778,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774887673},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":21352.2477,"price":0.895,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774812376},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":15869.999999999998,"price":0.69,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774870808},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":14960.000000000002,"price":0.17,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1774901343},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":12414.5621,"price":0.6896978944444444,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774887713}]}

reasoning:
该交易者 (TheQuietRisk) 是地缘政治专家级鲸鱼，曾精准捕捉哈梅内伊倒台。其在 3 月 31 日市场即将以 'No' 结算的压力下，逆势大规模向 4 月 30 日市场调仓并持续加仓（价格 0.63 较此前 0.84 更有性价比），表现出极强的作战周期判断力。考虑到 Top 2 交易者（均为百万级盈利者）重仓持有一致方向，其极有可能掌握了美军地面部队部署的特定情报或特朗普政府的最终决策时间表。


id: 1640919_0xf94d27d6c19e0f29c15ad7d6ebc5a146f4eb7108dd2d7816218896f72e4fb4eb-2571
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0xf94d27d6c19e0f29c15ad7d6ebc5a146f4eb7108dd2d7816218896f72e4fb4eb-2571
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x0a854897a06d4999e5b2dde5693609f1428ffe9d
detected_at: 2026-03-31T07:11:22.913546
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":164,"pnl":728077.7701827969,"volume":11867094.602659998,"user_name":"TheQuietRisk","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-3064075-3602ef96-7553-4b8c-bdb6-0fb08045bcf7.png","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":1232290.3320050002,"avg_trade_size":12322.903320050002,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US forces enter Iran by March 31?","US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 3","US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?","Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?","US forces enter Iran by April 30?","Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?","Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?"],"large_trades_count":23,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":590031.65184,"price":0.998,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1772481065},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":159818.06542,"price":0.899660545557111,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774812376},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":68038.2505,"price":0.8399784012345679,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774606071},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":48236.427,"price":0.719946671641791,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774859074},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":40300.0,"price":0.65,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774781226},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":24477.7591,"price":0.6799377527777778,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774887673},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":21352.2477,"price":0.895,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774812376},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":15869.999999999998,"price":0.69,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774870808},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":14960.000000000002,"price":0.17,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1774901343},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":12414.5621,"price":0.6896978944444444,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774887713}]}

reasoning:
交易者 'TheQuietRisk' (排名 #164, PnL ~$72.8万) 表现出极高的专业性和领域专注度。其近期交易记录显示，他在 3 月 31 日（即当前日期）精准地清仓了 '3月31日前美军进入伊朗' 的头寸（可能判断当天无法完成地面进入），转而通过多笔总计超过 20 万美元的交易重仓押注 '4月30日前进入'。这种从短期限向长期限的头寸平移，配合 3 月 29 日媒体（如 Reuters 和 Washington Post）报道的 '1.7万美军抵湾' 及 '五角大楼准备地面行动' 的消息，显示该交易者不仅在跟踪公开新闻，更在根据军事部署的节奏（如部队集结所需的物流周期）进行精确的赔率博弈。虽然 1.7 万美军到位的消息是公开的，但该交易者在 0.64 的高价位（隐含概率约 64%）持续加仓，暗示其对地面战争爆发的时机有远超散户的判断力。该市场看多方集结了 #60 和 #164 两大顶级鲸鱼，共识极强。

insider_evidence:
1. 极其精准的头寸轮动：在 3 月 31 日平掉即期市场并大规模反向或跨期买入 4 月市场；2. 资金规模与身份匹配：该钱包在伊朗局势相关市场有极高的活跃度和胜率；3. 紧随 3 月 29 日地面部队部署新闻后的持续性买入，反映了对军事行动‘落地’（物理进入领土）的高度信心。


id: 1653794_0xa3ede28021cd7450dbdb38e99d06fa470c43dac621a3abac2d90dc651a437625-894
market_id: 1653794
market_question: US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?
condition_id: 0x01ffd0acf0d6e42558a7cbd521efde937166a1bf09f3a2dfcdf36950c2dd3635
transaction_hash: 0xa3ede28021cd7450dbdb38e99d06fa470c43dac621a3abac2d90dc651a437625-894
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0x525e7e287d9a0799eb01fede9e07204586993803
insider_evidence: 无。买入价格0.70并未体现出领先于市场的时机优势，仅仅是按市价成交。
detected_at: 2026-03-31T07:46:09.598531
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:59.867810
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":163667,"pnl":136.806609986578,"volume":12631.989275,"user_name":"blures","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":14,"total_volume":15221.462606,"avg_trade_size":1087.247329,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Mike Macdonald win NFL Coach of the Year?","Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Final","Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch?","Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31?","Senators vs. Kraken","US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April","Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31?","Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2024?","Will Giannis Antetokounmpo lead the NBA in scoring"],"large_trades_count":1,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5285.7,"price":0.7,"title":"US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?","timestamp":1774942947}]}

reasoning:
交易者是一个排名极低的非专业用户。虽然交易金额突破了其个人记录，但其押注方向与市场最顶级的两位鲸鱼（SwissMiss, skylove）一致，且有充分的公开媒体报道（航运公司拒绝护航）支持。这更像是‘散户跟单’或‘公开信息反应’。


id: 1747817_0x0274fa2bbf9a2b44e2692c79bd543e52c49bc3047f395d787d1ea54579b75a65-1790
market_id: 1747817
market_question: EdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch?
condition_id: 0x20232f7d347a5d23d9ab35c67c4e88ca215a3daea6e240e6efad652db4f28b9e
transaction_hash: 0x0274fa2bbf9a2b44e2692c79bd543e52c49bc3047f395d787d1ea54579b75a65-1790
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xbbbfb543cf65f5eab9a4fe9078553af421b0b4f5
insider_evidence: 无。顶级 PnL 交易者集体看空该市场，说明该鲸鱼并非掌握核心情报的 insiders。
detected_at: 2026-03-31T08:38:47.857700
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":136552,"pnl":206.70645481549633,"volume":6391.607532,"user_name":"0xbbbfb543cf65f5eab9a4fe9078553af421b0b4f5","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":19,"total_volume":9851.188280999997,"avg_trade_size":518.483593736842,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["EdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch?","EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?","EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?","Jazz vs. Suns","EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?"],"large_trades_count":0,"recent_trades":[]}

reasoning:
该交易者排名较低且缺乏盈利记录。其押注方向与市场中排名 Top 1000 的『聪明钱』截然相反。交易发生在代币上市且公开交易数小时后，此时的价格区间（FDV ~$540M）使得 >$400M 的押注更像是一个常规的技术面支撑判断，而非基于非公开信息的内幕行为。


id: 567560_0xe04067a40b97224a0bf5e225326c4c3fd289ef726d42394c89406da523f09017-3127
market_id: 567560
market_question: Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
condition_id: 0x5ec80dc407457301f282a2b44341947afc700dfaa7923d14c8894e04bc63b03f
transaction_hash: 0xe04067a40b97224a0bf5e225326c4c3fd289ef726d42394c89406da523f09017-3127
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xfd22b8843ae03a33a8a4c5e39ef1e5ff33ebad91
detected_at: 2026-03-31T09:17:33.121083
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:08.846246
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":1345,"pnl":92566.98039530222,"volume":5918423.206216,"user_name":"AML","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-2982489-e31e2b2c-de88-4a4d-9d7d-bef4e82ea033.jpeg","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":52,"total_volume":1391045.7454910004,"avg_trade_size":26750.879720980774,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?","Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?","Utah vs. Ducks","Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor ","Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?","UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev","Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2","Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?","US military action against Iran before July?","Iran strike on Israel by Friday?"],"large_trades_count":31,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":199800.0,"price":0.6,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1772446971},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":143455.802,"price":0.82,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1774877447},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":99999.99999899999,"price":0.3324810829420456,"title":"UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev","timestamp":1755340324},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":99999.999998,"price":0.8382672955416768,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1772621969},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":99999.999997,"price":0.8268927652007628,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1772611279},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":99999.999995,"price":0.8316947345910092,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1772611299},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":96531.62997,"price":0.8471574846455847,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1772694391},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":75865.3137,"price":0.8298399623633884,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1774877447},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":68857.9906,"price":0.7965465310809126,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1772446809},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":52596.1179,"price":0.995,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1774760646}]}

reasoning:
交易者 AML 排名高且持续获利，目前在该市场持仓总额巨大（TOP 2）。在民调显著逆风且距离大选仅12天的情况下，敢于逆势持续加仓 Yes，且与当日另一笔巨额交易方向一致，极具信号意义。考虑到匈牙利政治环境的特殊性，这极可能反映了对 Fidesz 内部动员计划或尚未公开的‘反击举动’的提前布局。

insider_evidence:
1. 排名 #1345 的资深交易者持续加仓，总持仓接近 $6.5 万。 2. 紧随另一笔 $1.39 万的大额买单出现，形成聚集信号。 3. 交易方向与主流民调背离，暗示对非公开变量（选举机制控制或内部战略）的押注。


id: 567560_0x217278a948ca7b0fd23983f5b9d23b9eae88aa7e7087b27b6321dc907145c4ae-2932
market_id: 567560
market_question: Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
condition_id: 0x5ec80dc407457301f282a2b44341947afc700dfaa7923d14c8894e04bc63b03f
transaction_hash: 0x217278a948ca7b0fd23983f5b9d23b9eae88aa7e7087b27b6321dc907145c4ae-2932
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xfd22b8843ae03a33a8a4c5e39ef1e5ff33ebad91
detected_at: 2026-03-31T09:17:12.343767
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:08.846246
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":1345,"pnl":92566.98039530222,"volume":5918423.206216,"user_name":"AML","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-2982489-e31e2b2c-de88-4a4d-9d7d-bef4e82ea033.jpeg","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":52,"total_volume":1391045.7454910004,"avg_trade_size":26750.879720980774,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?","Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?","Utah vs. Ducks","Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor ","Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?","UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev","Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2","Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?","US military action against Iran before July?","Iran strike on Israel by Friday?"],"large_trades_count":31,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":199800.0,"price":0.6,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1772446971},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":143455.802,"price":0.82,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1774877447},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":99999.99999899999,"price":0.3324810829420456,"title":"UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev","timestamp":1755340324},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":99999.999998,"price":0.8382672955416768,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1772621969},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":99999.999997,"price":0.8268927652007628,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1772611279},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":99999.999995,"price":0.8316947345910092,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1772611299},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":96531.62997,"price":0.8471574846455847,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1772694391},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":75865.3137,"price":0.8298399623633884,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1774877447},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":68857.9906,"price":0.7965465310809126,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1772446809},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":52596.1179,"price":0.995,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1774760646}]}

reasoning:
交易者 AML（排名 #1345，PnL ~$9.2万）在匈牙利大选前夕（4月12日）买入 $10,000 的 Orbán 胜选。当前公开民调（Reuters, Bloomberg, Medián）一致显示反对党 Tisza 以 10-15% 的优势领先，市场赔率（36%）已充分反映了这一劣势。AML 的行为属于典型的“逆向押注”。虽然今日出现了两笔共计约 $2.4万的 Yes 买单（存在小规模信号聚集），但考虑到 AML 的平均交易规模（$2.6万）及该市场主要“聪明钱”（如排名 #203 的 lava-lava）坚定持有 No Token，目前更倾向于这是一种基于‘Fidesz 强大的基层动员能力’或‘可能的选举操纵传闻（如 BBC 报道的买票指控）’的博弈行为，而非掌握了确凿的翻盘内幕。交易金额对其账户而言并不算极端，且价格与公开预期基本持平，缺乏强力信息差证据。

insider_evidence:
1. 信号聚集：当日内出现两笔大额 Yes 买单（AML 和 0x14cf...），在民调极度不利的情况下显示出有组织或有共识的护盘/抄底。2. 媒体提及 Orbán 命令军队守卫‘关键地点’，可能预示强力行政手段介入。但这些均为公开信息，且未能逆转赔率跌势。


id: 1747817_0x43d609cd96e147c836ed1dac6e72ad7c09d1b0e56ae70c652717a361a07b1c35-1417
market_id: 1747817
market_question: EdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch?
condition_id: 0x20232f7d347a5d23d9ab35c67c4e88ca215a3daea6e240e6efad652db4f28b9e
transaction_hash: 0x43d609cd96e147c836ed1dac6e72ad7c09d1b0e56ae70c652717a361a07b1c35-1417
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0x9c987f84d18a4dd640909409b31212fbb805f4f4
insider_evidence: 无。盘前价格（$600M+）显著高于交易门槛，且该交易者在同一事件中持有相反的大额重仓。
detected_at: 2026-03-31T09:41:01.494741
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2464267,"pnl":-5172.667411842187,"volume":460970.009883,"user_name":"Moonshot1019","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":173829.84522000002,"avg_trade_size":1738.2984522000002,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Iran leadership change by March 31?","US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","US forces enter Iran by March 7?","Starmer out by June 30, 2026?","Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vi","U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by March 31, 2026?","EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?","Government shutdown on Saturday?","US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?","Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?"],"large_trades_count":8,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":14312.316200000001,"price":0.790361917236931,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774328433},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10560.0,"price":0.88,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","timestamp":1774328563},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9974.6232,"price":0.8277695601659751,"title":"EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?","timestamp":1774427735},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9821.1608,"price":0.6336232774193549,"title":"EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?","timestamp":1774427769},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8098.825700000001,"price":0.5318541943440598,"title":"EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?","timestamp":1773920815},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":5748.05426,"price":0.6834289379723943,"title":"Government shutdown on Saturday?","timestamp":1770973539},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5143.094800000001,"price":0.8481049170379703,"title":"Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?","timestamp":1770973569},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5100.0,"price":0.6,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1773544783}]}

reasoning:
该交易者历史亏损严重（-$5k），且其交易逻辑存在严重自相矛盾：在 EdgeX >$500M 和 >$1B 市场累计投入近 $2万看多，却在 >$400M 市场投入 $1k 看空。这种行为不符合内幕交易者的严谨逻辑，更像是散户的误操作或无效对冲。


id: 567561_0xcb80a8422cab84e3a810389e20f7312ac83df197741a5e2078d45da6054bf7a3-1339
market_id: 567561
market_question: Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
condition_id: 0x1480b819d03d4b6388d70e848b0384adf38c38d955cb783cdbcf6d4a436dee14
transaction_hash: 0xcb80a8422cab84e3a810389e20f7312ac83df197741a5e2078d45da6054bf7a3-1339
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xfc0ee8f51fa3eb9ec0dc5880f88dff5e8c4dcf87
insider_evidence: 交易发生在匈牙利国内间谍软件丑闻曝光及民调优势扩大的 24 小时内；交易金额为个人平均水平的 5 倍以上；与另一笔历史大额信号方向高度一致。
detected_at: 2026-03-31T09:52:18.174360
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:09.723264
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":29618,"pnl":3031.728315669141,"volume":138365.58421199996,"user_name":"ShaoLengLeng","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-6386838-44687e44-2c9f-4a42-add2-8a8da540c8c0.webp","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":15,"total_volume":20591.3101,"avg_trade_size":1372.7540066666666,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter M"],"large_trades_count":1,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7115.3586,"price":0.63,"title":"Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?","timestamp":1774950549}]}

reasoning:
该交易者非平台顶级鲸鱼，但其交易规模远超个人历史均值，且时机精准踩在欧尔班内阁丑闻发酵与大选倒计时的敏感节点。结合看多方存在顶级盈利交易者的共识，该交易极可能是基于匈牙利国内特定政治情报或最新民调趋势的‘知情交易’。


id: 1747817_0x70fe329db5325713487039d5cae84d2951792075a855f356a8866621b359491c-1707
market_id: 1747817
market_question: EdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch?
condition_id: 0x20232f7d347a5d23d9ab35c67c4e88ca215a3daea6e240e6efad652db4f28b9e
transaction_hash: 0x70fe329db5325713487039d5cae84d2951792075a855f356a8866621b359491c-1707
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0xac9b386454ed02ef205e0ebd189d8864fd02d4c5
insider_evidence: 社交媒体曝光的 26 个团队关联钱包（持有 14% 供应量）在 TGE 后的抛售行为，与该鲸鱼的大额看空买入在时间轴上高度吻合。
detected_at: 2026-03-31T09:59:53.431292
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":1092,"pnl":114535.10134579855,"volume":4677345.487448,"user_name":"tryingmyluckhere","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":72506.2261434,"avg_trade_size":725.062261434,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier L","Based FDV above $75M one day after launch?","LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand G","MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after laun","Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?","o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch?","Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch?","Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?","LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Playo","Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?"],"large_trades_count":1,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":6545.307600000001,"price":0.6043620609578296,"title":"Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch?","timestamp":1774374011}]}

reasoning:
交易者在代币上线 5 小时内精准出手，此时市场仍受盘前高价干扰（Yes 赔率 61%）。交易者利用高排名的专业优势，极可能通过监控此前被社区曝光的‘14% 团队关联钱包’的链上流向，预判到了即将到来的大规模砸盘，其信息处理速度和准确度远超市场平均水平。


id: 1782688_0x9b9d9410aac3ca846add2ebfd10c9fbfc1b539d8c96664bd469dd7c2f82a9244-889
market_id: 1782688
market_question: Over $9M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?
condition_id: 0x8b04dddbc3508f40d54d055f1e2c8b76344be9152f874583ad9a23e553ad4ce4
transaction_hash: 0x9b9d9410aac3ca846add2ebfd10c9fbfc1b539d8c96664bd469dd7c2f82a9244-889
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xc452bc4c4ffb4e17a141ac9d49b79d87dedf7234
insider_evidence: 链上证据显示 P2P Protocol 团队钱包在持续买入 Yes 选项。Nihaww 作为该领域的专家，其交易方向与‘庄家/团队’的潜在操纵方向高度契合，体现了对非公开操盘逻辑的深刻理解。
detected_at: 2026-03-31T10:30:27.665071
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:11.281028
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":7723,"pnl":14444.658055064248,"volume":1334837.1324419999,"user_name":"Nihaww","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":221002.25456846642,"avg_trade_size":2210.0225456846642,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["BNP Paribas Open: Valentin Royer vs Benjamin Bonzi","Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of th","Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sal","Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Mas","Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premi","Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Masters San","Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?","Over $2M committed to the Hurupay public sale?","Moonbirds FDV above $700M one day after launch?","Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?"],"large_trades_count":14,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":22999.999996,"price":0.8494577504878358,"title":"Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?","timestamp":1768763472},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":14421.999998,"price":0.849768327631934,"title":"Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale?","timestamp":1768056398},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":12499.999998,"price":0.9357703652564222,"title":"Moonbirds FDV above $700M one day after launch?","timestamp":1769622386},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9999.999997,"price":0.8683040545692282,"title":"Over $20M committed to the Hurupay public sale?","timestamp":1769763374},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":9997.382609999999,"price":0.999,"title":"Over $20M committed to the Ranger public sale?","timestamp":1768051756},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9504.559992999999,"price":0.8798118716809824,"title":"Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?","timestamp":1768763532},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":8940.051,"price":0.999,"title":"Miami Open: Rafael Jodar vs Tomas Etcheverry","timestamp":1774210423},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":7497.7641300000005,"price":0.93722051625,"title":"Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?","timestamp":1768774312},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5999.999999000001,"price":0.9095996374045986,"title":"Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale?","timestamp":1768055398},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":5653.31461,"price":0.9422191016666667,"title":"Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?","timestamp":1768774120}]}

reasoning:
交易者 Nihaww 是 MetaDAO 募资市场的‘专项交易者’，其近期持仓几乎全部集中在代币公售额度预测上。本次‘Yes’押注正值募资延长与团队操控丑闻发酵期。虽然募资目前仅 660 万且面临退款抛压，但 Nihaww 的入场暗示其识别到了‘团队护盘’或‘内部资金注入’的概率。考虑到该项目方已有公开押注自家募资额的前科，Nihaww 可能掌握了团队为了达成下一阶段估值目标（如 900 万美元关键阈值）而必须在延长赛内补足差额的意图或习惯。


id: 1747817_0x76f30d69a3b91d4cd1883a263db8482aaf87efe7b7c3a477111d4d9048fd8c02-3177
market_id: 1747817
market_question: EdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch?
condition_id: 0x20232f7d347a5d23d9ab35c67c4e88ca215a3daea6e240e6efad652db4f28b9e
transaction_hash: 0x76f30d69a3b91d4cd1883a263db8482aaf87efe7b7c3a477111d4d9048fd8c02-3177
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0x9c987f84d18a4dd640909409b31212fbb805f4f4
insider_evidence: 该市场 Top 5 看空方几乎全是高盈利、高排名的专业交易者，而看多方则多为亏损或未验证用户，形成鲜明的‘聪明钱 vs 零售’格局。
detected_at: 2026-03-31T10:36:14.488197
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2464267,"pnl":-5172.667411842187,"volume":460970.009883,"user_name":"Moonshot1019","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":192494.33105400007,"avg_trade_size":1924.9433105400008,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Iran leadership change by March 31?","US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","US forces enter Iran by March 7?","Starmer out by June 30, 2026?","Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vi","U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by March 31, 2026?","EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?","Government shutdown on Saturday?","US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?","Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?"],"large_trades_count":9,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":14312.316200000001,"price":0.790361917236931,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774328433},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":11928.0,"price":0.994,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","timestamp":1774949983},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10560.0,"price":0.88,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","timestamp":1774328563},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9974.6232,"price":0.8277695601659751,"title":"EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?","timestamp":1774427735},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9821.1608,"price":0.6336232774193549,"title":"EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?","timestamp":1774427769},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8098.825700000001,"price":0.5318541943440598,"title":"EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?","timestamp":1773920815},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":5748.05426,"price":0.6834289379723943,"title":"Government shutdown on Saturday?","timestamp":1770973539},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5143.094800000001,"price":0.8481049170379703,"title":"Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?","timestamp":1770973569},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5100.0,"price":0.6,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1773544783}]}

reasoning:
虽然本笔交易者 Moonshot1019 个人信用极低（亏损严重），但该市场的空方力量极度反常。在盘前价格远高于门槛（$0.69 vs $0.40）的情况下，多位排名前 1500、盈利极高的‘聪明钱’（如 tryingmyluckhere）均重仓买入 No。这暗示专业交易者群体掌握了关于空投抛压规模、做市商策略或特定结算规则的信息优势，预判 TGE 后将出现超过 40% 的崩盘。Moonshot1019 的交易方向与聪明钱一致，虽然他本人可能只是跟单。


id: 1747817_0xa28e071e902402b40fc954dda3dde9f755b6d5ad35d4497a56edfe992e49e20b-2500
market_id: 1747817
market_question: EdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch?
condition_id: 0x20232f7d347a5d23d9ab35c67c4e88ca215a3daea6e240e6efad652db4f28b9e
transaction_hash: 0xa28e071e902402b40fc954dda3dde9f755b6d5ad35d4497a56edfe992e49e20b-2500
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0x9c987f84d18a4dd640909409b31212fbb805f4f4
insider_evidence: 1. 顶级盈利交易者 (PnL >$110k) 在 TGE 前夕逆势看空 $400M FDV；2. 链上监测显示 14% 的代币供应被分发至 26 个关联钱包，暗示开盘即存在非公开的机构级抛压。
detected_at: 2026-03-31T11:06:57.086285
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2464267,"pnl":-5172.667411842187,"volume":460970.009883,"user_name":"Moonshot1019","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":193570.87327700006,"avg_trade_size":1935.7087327700006,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Iran leadership change by March 31?","US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","US forces enter Iran by March 7?","Starmer out by June 30, 2026?","Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vi","U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by March 31, 2026?","EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?","Government shutdown on Saturday?","US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?","Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?"],"large_trades_count":9,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":14312.316200000001,"price":0.790361917236931,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774328433},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":11928.0,"price":0.994,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","timestamp":1774949983},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10560.0,"price":0.88,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","timestamp":1774328563},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9974.6232,"price":0.8277695601659751,"title":"EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?","timestamp":1774427735},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9821.1608,"price":0.6336232774193549,"title":"EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?","timestamp":1774427769},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8098.825700000001,"price":0.5318541943440598,"title":"EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?","timestamp":1773920815},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":5748.05426,"price":0.6834289379723943,"title":"Government shutdown on Saturday?","timestamp":1770973539},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5143.094800000001,"price":0.8481049170379703,"title":"Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?","timestamp":1770973569},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5100.0,"price":0.6,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1773544783}]}

reasoning:
本次触发告警的交易者 Moonshot1019 本身盈亏表现较差且持仓逻辑前后矛盾，不具备内幕特征。然而，该市场在同一时间段吸引了排名 Top 1100 的顶级聪明钱 (tryingmyluckhere) 逆势看空。结合推特披露的内部人士大额代币分发传闻（1.4亿枚代币疑似流向内部钱包），市场存在明确的未定价抛压。顶级交易者的提前布局暗示其可能掌握了内部抛售的时间表或初始流通量的真实抛压数据。


id: 1640919_0xeb1df79c6a5f72d1ff8bce8fe28d25b047d3078bfee7fa58f38e801693d97fef-969
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0xeb1df79c6a5f72d1ff8bce8fe28d25b047d3078bfee7fa58f38e801693d97fef-969
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0x7d92527e3dcb0608f72e1b74e38be6c440fa0d48
insider_evidence: 无直接证据。交易时机处于和平谈判传闻与伊朗拒绝协议的舆论拉锯期，更符合‘消息面交易员’（News Trader）的特征。
detected_at: 2026-03-31T11:37:57.964140
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
reasoning:
交易方向与当日 WSJ 报道的‘特朗普寻求和平结束战争’的消息高度契合。由于该消息已公开数小时，这更有可能是基于新闻分析的战术性调仓或高风险投机。该账户为全新地址且缺乏历史记录，无法证明其具备非公开信息源。


id: 1535973_0x306fecf9e96380069cded54f6d973f947f4979fd983ff8d7236f5446cc7d7a32-1479
market_id: 1535973
market_question: Iran leadership change by December 31?
condition_id: 0x377e7fe65cf198a7fc4fdae3f2136b74729279267858daaf96718b23bc2a5607
transaction_hash: 0x306fecf9e96380069cded54f6d973f947f4979fd983ff8d7236f5446cc7d7a32-1479
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0x614dc8d3542c12103d2c6a3553fd761e391d1546
insider_evidence: 无明确线报证据。更多体现为基于领域专长的逆向投资策略，利用了西方情报机构与伊朗宣传口之间巨大的信息差进行获利。
detected_at: 2026-03-31T11:56:10.715741
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":400,"pnl":321239.3474195847,"volume":24130746.256113,"user_name":"mr.ozi","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Capture_2c5e68de-e9d9-41e8-b25d-2dcc67eefc45_1721219990648.PNG","verified":true,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":245773.17169399993,"avg_trade_size":2457.7317169399994,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Iran coup attempt by June 30?","US forces enter Iran by December 31?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?","Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by Ma","Will Trump visit China by April 30?","US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?","US forces enter Iran by March 31?","Will Trump visit China by March 31?","US forces enter Iran by April 30?"],"large_trades_count":9,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":24633.5124,"price":0.84,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1774899173},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":24134.029300000002,"price":0.6602408833987127,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?","timestamp":1774899235},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":11336.883899999999,"price":0.57,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?","timestamp":1773867235},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":10800.0648,"price":0.72,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1773597221},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7797.9354,"price":0.38989677,"title":"US forces enter Iran by December 31?","timestamp":1773597237},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":7522.698589999999,"price":0.9664942834127107,"title":"Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March?","timestamp":1773600845},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6959.999999999999,"price":0.58,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?","timestamp":1773867337},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":6914.13706,"price":0.9877338657142857,"title":"Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?","timestamp":1774880409},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5182.1369,"price":0.49252271988534085,"title":"Iran leadership change by December 31?","timestamp":1774469373}]}

reasoning:
交易者 mr.ozi 是长期深耕伊朗局势的顶级专家。在特朗普公开质疑领袖生命体征、市场恐慌性押注 Yes 时，他以 $0.58 的高溢价买入 No，反映其通过非公开分析渠道（或对伊朗政权结构的深度理解）判定 Mojtaba 的伤情被夸大，或判定即使领袖伤重，政权也会在年内维持其地位以确立合法性。


id: 567561_0xdb1018d89367a435c52d542f67b967754bfed191b44e0f9823ce1097f2e29ec9-333
market_id: 567561
market_question: Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
condition_id: 0x1480b819d03d4b6388d70e848b0384adf38c38d955cb783cdbcf6d4a436dee14
transaction_hash: 0xdb1018d89367a435c52d542f67b967754bfed191b44e0f9823ce1097f2e29ec9-333
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0x2d029af6d00bc24dfb1b39de68884af10b2d9489
insider_evidence: 无明确内幕证据。虽然交易时机临近大选，但该方向与主流民调和聪明钱共识完全背离，且交易者历史记录不佳。
detected_at: 2026-03-31T12:13:26.928595
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:09.723264
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2408038,"pnl":-1574.1391690447513,"volume":16496.025663,"user_name":"Nyakorves-Peti","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":24,"total_volume":37338.40911460631,"avg_trade_size":1555.7670464419296,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hu","Will Fidesz-KDNP win 48%+ of the national list vot","Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor ","Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter M","Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes ","Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET","Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win","Will Fidesz-KDNP win 44-48% of the national list v","Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET"],"large_trades_count":1,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":17103.0,"price":0.3912113522246809,"title":"Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?","timestamp":1774957939}]}

reasoning:
该交易者具有明显的匈牙利本地背景，其累计 $2.6万的押注在民调极度不利的情况下属于激进的逆势行为。然而，其极低的排名和历史负盈亏（-$1,574）暗示其更可能是一名受政治立场驱动的‘信仰型’玩家，而非掌握未公开信息的内幕人士。其行为更像是在押注 Fidesz 传统的‘最后时刻翻盘’或选举操控能力。


id: 1747838_0x0e0a6cc308aff62f8d20f9b384a59ff753b95911d36c9901ff0b1c5c3e749a36-1825
market_id: 1747838
market_question: EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch?
condition_id: 0xb3f50fcd43ac38918536ca43754eceaccd0ef3cd6d1d860d718b52d9f988f418
transaction_hash: 0x0e0a6cc308aff62f8d20f9b384a59ff753b95911d36c9901ff0b1c5c3e749a36-1825
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xabfa344b2e974ac49935bc40403ca309c852e24b
detected_at: 2026-03-31T12:30:01.981097
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":1644429,"pnl":-13.666686556856,"volume":1484.511778,"user_name":"4ndyJai","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":7,"total_volume":33.999997,"avg_trade_size":4.857142428571429,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch?","EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?","EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?","EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?","EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch?","EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch?"],"large_trades_count":0,"recent_trades":[]}

reasoning:
交易者为低排名散户，交易金额虽相对于其自身历史呈爆发式增长，但在市场总量中并不突出。其买入方向与目前高排名交易者的共识相反，且 $EDGE 实时价格明显低于目标门槛。该交易更像是典型的散户抄底行为，而非掌握内幕信息的精准押注。

insider_evidence:
无。交易发生在代币已上市、价格信息全透明的阶段。目前 FDV 为 $510M，该交易者在 $0.22 价格（22% 概率）买入 Yes，是期待价格在未来 20 小时内出现 15% 以上的拉升，属于高风险投机。


id: 567561_0xbd0348d4ea9fc2b0bc2a3e0d4ec65b4d236472ddaf1851de6b1f83d25dd0ccda-1453
market_id: 567561
market_question: Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
condition_id: 0x1480b819d03d4b6388d70e848b0384adf38c38d955cb783cdbcf6d4a436dee14
transaction_hash: 0xbd0348d4ea9fc2b0bc2a3e0d4ec65b4d236472ddaf1851de6b1f83d25dd0ccda-1453
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x016a003d0a79f87fb2da292af3d520afc8ec848d
detected_at: 2026-03-31T12:54:07.923290
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:09.723264
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":67815,"pnl":955.1580161105068,"volume":164241.40329899997,"user_name":"mefre2","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":55,"total_volume":40688.9738861686,"avg_trade_size":739.7995252030654,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET","Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET","Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET","Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István ","Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET","Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11:45AM-12:00PM ","Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET","Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter M","Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET","Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11:30AM-11:45AM "],"large_trades_count":3,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6300.0,"price":0.63,"title":"Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?","timestamp":1774961403},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6300.0,"price":0.63,"title":"Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?","timestamp":1774958995},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5670.0,"price":0.63,"title":"Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?","timestamp":1774961437}]}

reasoning:
交易者表现出从宏观波动市场向特定政治事件的精准转型。其买入时机精准捕捉了 Orbán 政府近期爆发的重大丑闻（选票买卖指控及俄罗斯干预丑闻）与民调领先的确认期。对手方（No）存在明显的‘低智资金’特征，为知情鲸鱼提供了获利空间。

insider_evidence:
交易发生在 3 月 30-31 日关于‘选票贿赂’和‘俄罗斯特工干预’丑闻大规模发酵的窗口期。交易者在该市场进行了一系列非典型的密集买入（Scaling in），表明其对最新民调和舆论拐点的把握超过普通参与者。


id: 1569627_0xab4a7de90c440b31b62ad053f1ac9b48c87de31c65b5f3f5247e0e4ff27c06a0-1173
market_id: 1569627
market_question: US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
condition_id: 0x773abaa5fe55e5cde51a261f444b7921652a4e059ead6b3be9fe56499c2d4609
transaction_hash: 0xab4a7de90c440b31b62ad053f1ac9b48c87de31c65b5f3f5247e0e4ff27c06a0-1173
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x35417b3d09d7a0991f75d7cc95162a6e34d7462e
reasoning: 交易者是该垂直领域的核心深度参与者，其建仓时机与‘4月9日美方目标期限’这一关键传闻高度同步。同时，其与多位全球排名前100的顶级交易者站在同一阵营，且对手方主要为高亏损账户，信号可靠性极强。
insider_evidence: 利用市场对近期局势波动的过度反应（从0.67跌至0.19），在外交秘密谈判的关键窗口期重新抄底。该交易者作为市场第一大持仓者，其行为引领了聪明钱对停火预期的重新定价。
detected_at: 2026-03-31T13:34:24.686237
market_resolved_at: 2026-04-22T08:02:32.821289
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":3691,"pnl":32059.31697537274,"volume":18747799.045801,"user_name":"Casdifer","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-4798110-1d9f916f-7692-4971-8d44-8fe6be7e7927.jpg","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":176595.0291899999,"avg_trade_size":1765.9502918999992,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?","US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?","US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?","US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?"],"large_trades_count":9,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":13445.714100000001,"price":0.67,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","timestamp":1774487447},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":10907.7235,"price":0.5354293311577898,"title":"Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?","timestamp":1774385861},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8676.3006,"price":0.38,"title":"Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?","timestamp":1774558555},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6859.008,"price":0.6,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?","timestamp":1774441173},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6522.842500000001,"price":0.6898806772691362,"title":"Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?","timestamp":1774443015},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6062.6889,"price":0.6491866172675583,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","timestamp":1774442923},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5805.278,"price":0.45810985271743593,"title":"Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?","timestamp":1774474721},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":5542.656300000001,"price":0.6607107581062186,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?","timestamp":1774441285},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":5017.2384,"price":0.62,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","timestamp":1774440733}]}


id: 1394299_0x898ca120fccf0d3927e256aa8969c2bcf458359ac8063d8dc4d24780c67a57eb-2199
market_id: 1394299
market_question: US forces enter Iran by December 31?
condition_id: 0xe4b9a52d2bb336ff9d84799b70e72e8e5f4507df881af60f3f4daeb9f541a80e
transaction_hash: 0x898ca120fccf0d3927e256aa8969c2bcf458359ac8063d8dc4d24780c67a57eb-2199
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0xbaa2bcb5439e985ce4ccf815b4700027d1b92c73
insider_evidence: 国防部长海格塞斯在 3 月 31 日提到的‘谈判正在加强’及‘政权更迭已发生’的公开言论，为该交易提供了公开的逻辑支撑，但 denizz 的出手时机和规模显示其对这些信号的信心远超市场共识。
detected_at: 2026-03-31T14:05:10.694805
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":124,"pnl":901506.3785026061,"volume":46176208.57599899,"user_name":"denizz","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":115647.45410899997,"avg_trade_size":1156.4745410899998,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US forces enter Iran by March 7?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?","US forces enter Iran by December 31?","Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, ","Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of","US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?","Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Tur","US forces enter Iran by March 31?","Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end"],"large_trades_count":7,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":17216.207100000003,"price":0.27,"title":"US forces enter Iran by December 31?","timestamp":1774965861},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10652.0743,"price":0.19853697054303732,"title":"Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?","timestamp":1772747829},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8582.42,"price":0.22,"title":"Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?","timestamp":1773905171},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7319.7682,"price":0.29,"title":"US forces enter Iran by December 31?","timestamp":1774961269},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6115.0928,"price":0.92,"title":"Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?","timestamp":1774565747},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5503.3679,"price":0.6091603601808653,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1772921935},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5168.1277,"price":0.29,"title":"US forces enter Iran by December 31?","timestamp":1774923413}]}

reasoning:
交易者 denizz 是该领域的顶级专家，拥有极高的历史胜率和专业声誉。他在市场情绪因停火协议受阻而极度看涨地面战（73% 概率）时进行反向大额押注。虽然没有直接证据表明其掌握未公开的停火秘密，但他对美国现任政府（特朗普/海格塞斯）‘以空促谈’战略的理解深度明显高于普通市场参与者。由于对手方同样有顶级交易者，这更像是一场基于深度分析的博弈而非单一内幕。


id: 965261_0x71602f8665ee3fb2697979ffef8f4011df6a986aef960a202654fbdeb649f758-1373
market_id: 965261
market_question: MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
condition_id: 0x940f01421649348b09dbf72bfd90788b9513ee56d9a0e7532c45ecda1ecfc6b4
transaction_hash: 0x71602f8665ee3fb2697979ffef8f4011df6a986aef960a202654fbdeb649f758-1373
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xd293f90dde89cd3c4c350fdfdd7c427ed82c8940
insider_evidence: 交易发生在传闻 TGE 日期前 2 小时；交易者不计滑点直接将价格翻倍；账户特征符合专门用于单次内幕押注的影子账户。
detected_at: 2026-03-31T18:47:02.132436
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:06:02.814090
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2486892,"pnl":-45088.27488779999,"volume":174994.76,"user_name":"0xd293F90ddE89cd3C4c350fDfDd7c427Ed82C8940-1774958284213","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":1,"total_volume":92336.8693,"avg_trade_size":92336.8693,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch"],"large_trades_count":1,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":92336.8693,"price":0.5276550526427192,"title":"MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?","timestamp":1774968265}]}

reasoning:
该交易者虽为低排名、负盈利账户，但在 TGE 传闻日期（4月1日）前几小时，以接近 $10 万美元的规模逆市扫货（将胜率从 27% 推至 53%），展现出极高的确定性信心。这种‘自杀式’博弈通常对应着对具体公告时间的提前知情。其对抗的对手方是站队 No 的顶尖交易者 tomsir，这种 whale vs whale 的碰撞极具信号价值。


id: 1662802_0x44db24d20c7663d17644268665e608f3c0cd7f6df2993f8f37e874f0b2265800-1960
market_id: 1662802
market_question: Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
condition_id: 0x68beecc857017df8663fa36c0c86310dec7305aa88fe830c94651391314afc1c
transaction_hash: 0x44db24d20c7663d17644268665e608f3c0cd7f6df2993f8f37e874f0b2265800-1960
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b
insider_evidence: 该交易者在关联市场（3月31日前进入伊朗）持有极重仓位，且该交易时间精准卡在国防部长发表定性言论之后，显示出其对政府军事决策路径的深度理解，属于典型的‘专家级情报分析’交易。
detected_at: 2026-03-31T18:48:50.548489
market_resolved_at: 2026-04-22T08:02:34.658658
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":695,"pnl":189923.32452012284,"volume":13726177.780926999,"user_name":"wan123","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":857470.2029326372,"avg_trade_size":8574.702029326372,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers","Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-15.5)","Northern Iowa Panthers vs. St. John's Red Storm","McNeese State Cowboys vs. Vanderbilt Commodores: O","St. John's Red Storm vs. Kansas Jayhawks","Spread: Alabama Crimson Tide (-11.5)","US forces enter Iran by December 31?","Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for K","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?","Spread: St. John's Red Storm (-9.5)"],"large_trades_count":48,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":66404.8137,"price":0.7783370475525946,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774020249},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":55000.7086,"price":0.7681973280765103,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1773935819},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":38500.0,"price":0.77,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774031019},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":33322.68,"price":0.75,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1773774405},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":32534.768200000002,"price":0.39565853871504125,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774629997},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":28876.372999999996,"price":0.58,"title":"TCU Horned Frogs vs. Ohio State Buckeyes","timestamp":1773889859},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":28266.0488,"price":0.7949950442975672,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774042163},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":25417.507149999998,"price":0.3872886639455268,"title":"Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?","timestamp":1773889993},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":23560.665,"price":0.4497388114402994,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774042091},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":22709.7921,"price":0.43,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?","timestamp":1773947357}]}

reasoning:
交易者 wan123 是地缘政治领域的资深大户，其持仓逻辑严密：在重仓押注 3 月 31 日‘美军进入伊朗’（推测为斩首或特种作战）的同时，买入 4 月 15 日前‘宣布结束行动’的 Yes。这符合‘战果达成即宣布胜利’的政治节奏。考虑到国防部长 Hegseth 同日宣布‘政权更迭已发生’，该交易者显然是在利用其对军事进程的专业判断和极快的新闻反应速度，在市场尚未完全相信‘停火公告’即将到来时抢筹。


id: 1640919_0x53ee119662190a1b9f6438f5c222aba0d7d420f15985dedea972afed731d7002-1969
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0x53ee119662190a1b9f6438f5c222aba0d7d420f15985dedea972afed731d7002-1969
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x0a854897a06d4999e5b2dde5693609f1428ffe9d
insider_evidence: 1. 该交易者在哈梅内伊市场精准获利 $59w；2. 3月31日最后时刻大规模跨期展期买入4月市场；3. 与另一位 Top 100 鲸鱼形成看多共识。
detected_at: 2026-03-31T18:50:56.757864
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":1380504.264655,"avg_trade_size":13805.04264655,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US forces enter Iran by March 31?","US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 3","US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?","Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?","US forces enter Iran by April 30?","Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?","Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?","Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?"],"large_trades_count":33,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":590031.65184,"price":0.998,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1772481065},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":159818.06542,"price":0.899660545557111,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774812376},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":68038.2505,"price":0.8399784012345679,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774606071},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":48236.427,"price":0.719946671641791,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774859074},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":41180.7958,"price":0.5882970828571429,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774969997},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":40300.0,"price":0.65,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774781226},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":24477.7591,"price":0.6799377527777778,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774887673},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":21352.2477,"price":0.895,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774812376},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":18266.042,"price":0.6298635172413793,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774940869},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":17400.0,"price":0.6,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774970335}]}

reasoning:
该交易者 (TheQuietRisk) 在哈梅内伊死亡事件中表现出了极强的信息超前性，其实际获利能力已得到验证。当前其正以超 40 万美元的规模对冲官方的“停火”叙事，这种行为通常意味着其掌握了比公开新闻更底层的军事部署逻辑（如地面部队的实际动员状态或谈判的破裂迹象）。其对手方缺乏同级别的专业背景。


id: 1640919_0x8f56f10d3e544949ee65f63ef330eef003a8e91bbbbb5400e75d129b6000463c-1003
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0x8f56f10d3e544949ee65f63ef330eef003a8e91bbbbb5400e75d129b6000463c-1003
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35
insider_evidence: 该交易发生在五角大楼确认谈判‘加强’且‘政权更迭已发生’（但未进行地面战）的公开简报之后。该鲸鱼在 3 月 31 日到期前最后几小时的大额反手，显示其对‘地面部队进入’这一特定结算条件的深刻理解。
detected_at: 2026-03-31T18:50:26.135409
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":76,"pnl":1303745.208860939,"volume":103388800.68193501,"user_name":"ScottyNooo","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-2861114-c1c15cef-e455-4932-9b26-66ad799b1a4a.webp","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":202060.37188999995,"avg_trade_size":2020.6037188999994,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US forces enter Iran by December 31?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?","Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?","Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by Ma","Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April","US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","Will Trump create a tariff dividend by March 31?","US forces enter Iran by March 31?","Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?"],"large_trades_count":12,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":33063.8848,"price":0.68,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774909281},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":25166.529300000002,"price":0.33,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774917847},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":18989.0022,"price":0.42,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774969931},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":11788.994999999999,"price":0.69,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774891623},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10039.56,"price":0.3,"title":"US forces enter Iran by December 31?","timestamp":1774969845},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9073.1004,"price":0.84,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1774966829},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8968.23525,"price":0.975,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774958967},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8228.800039999998,"price":0.974,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774958931},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7609.424,"price":0.32,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774917821},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7110.400000000001,"price":0.8,"title":"Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?","timestamp":1774969721}]}

reasoning:
交易者 ScottyNooo 是顶级鲸鱼，其操作显示出对五角大楼 3 月 31 日政策简报的极速反应。他从早前的极度看多（0.97 Yes）转变为当前的看空（0.42 No），说明他已判定‘地面入侵’的时机已经窗口关闭，取而代之的是外交谈判。其行为更倾向于顶尖新闻交易员而非单纯的内幕知情者。


id: 1469737_0x60d589c539ed803a69f27e56b4c4c043ca93be75ac6cdadd5c1bfa4eb0ae5b5c-5120
market_id: 1469737
market_question: Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
condition_id: 0x25fb28382075f418a944a781a9f8840e2f541152eea0d9798d1cabfa1466adbb
transaction_hash: 0x60d589c539ed803a69f27e56b4c4c043ca93be75ac6cdadd5c1bfa4eb0ae5b5c-5120
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xae7fceb5828ad56356283188b505939d057f31c9
detected_at: 2026-03-31T18:54:11.257513
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":52334,"pnl":1489.2637866201194,"volume":198820.67847,"user_name":"0xAE7FcEb5828Ad56356283188B505939D057F31c9-1768585935728","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":89338.436222,"avg_trade_size":893.3843622200001,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Iran leadership change by March 31?","Will Khamenei tweet again on March 10, 2026?","Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end","Will Khamenei tweet again on March 13, 2026?","Iran leadership change by April 30?","Iran leadership change by December 31?","Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February","Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?","Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?","Iran leadership change by May 31?"],"large_trades_count":3,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":12721.443,"price":0.94,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?","timestamp":1774972049},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":12721.439999,"price":0.647328801664163,"title":"Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?","timestamp":1774972079},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":8451.702650000001,"price":0.9578411154051022,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1773144341}]}

reasoning:
该交易者是伊朗局势的垂直交易者。其核心优势在于极其精准的资金管理和对‘政权韧性’的坚定判断。他通过在即将结算的短期‘政权不倒台’市场中锁定利润（0.95 价格），并在官方视频澄清及短期谣言消散的节点，立即将全部本息转入长期执政市场。这种‘无缝隙复利’操作通常见于对权力交接有深入情报或高度专业认知的投资者，而非普通博弈者。

insider_evidence:
该交易者的所有交易记录均指向‘伊朗现政权稳定’。他在 3 月 31 日 23:47（即政权倒台预测到期前 13 分钟）精准平仓并反手做多新领导人，这不仅是资金利用效率的体现，更是对伊朗内部局势（包括哈梅内伊伤情、官方辟谣力度、军方支持度）有明确信心或掌握了非对称的解读速度。


id: 1455618_0xeeb160214f12f6a5d2cc58ce32d5e722b40403b050a98d7ee9ac3c392c24768c-4586
market_id: 1455618
market_question: Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March?
condition_id: 0xbef7266e1d7c2adad3d7c6ae59df817d653c872802415a369c761ca75601f5ea
transaction_hash: 0xeeb160214f12f6a5d2cc58ce32d5e722b40403b050a98d7ee9ac3c392c24768c-4586
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x380c4c698622719817f86f83fdca3883b35b3eef
reasoning: 交易者在结算前夕以远高于市场价的水平扫盘买入，且该市场正处于是否存在‘非正式通话’的争议期。聪明钱排名靠前者亦在多头阵营，暗示内部已有确认消息流出。
insider_evidence: 3月31日晚间社交媒体出现特朗普提及与吕特私人沟通的信号，交易者抢在市场大范围反应和结算前入场。
detected_at: 2026-03-31T18:55:59.827073
market_resolved_at: 2026-04-22T08:02:36.124741
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":85450,"pnl":607.1992548312218,"volume":31938.923597,"user_name":"jerry555","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":13,"total_volume":26438.165726999996,"avg_trade_size":2033.7050559230765,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?","US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March?","Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?","Trump announces end of military operations against"],"large_trades_count":2,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":6759.88188,"price":0.996,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","timestamp":1774976467},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6759.879997999999,"price":0.8917875069886149,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?","timestamp":1774976539}]}


id: 1484894_0x97e596863072486bc0bbd76d943cdd3ef131b47c33b3c373d6a94323791877bc-6896
market_id: 1484894
market_question: US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
condition_id: 0xa9937410f8aae98cc6440a7480ad832be5a1a998afcf5a6e77c6f5aa4c0f259f
transaction_hash: 0x97e596863072486bc0bbd76d943cdd3ef131b47c33b3c373d6a94323791877bc-6896
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b
detected_at: 2026-03-31T19:00:00.535800
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:12.840796
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":695,"pnl":189923.32452012284,"volume":13726177.780926999,"user_name":"wan123","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":857470.2029326372,"avg_trade_size":8574.702029326372,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers","Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-15.5)","Northern Iowa Panthers vs. St. John's Red Storm","McNeese State Cowboys vs. Vanderbilt Commodores: O","St. John's Red Storm vs. Kansas Jayhawks","Spread: Alabama Crimson Tide (-11.5)","US forces enter Iran by December 31?","Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for K","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?","Spread: St. John's Red Storm (-9.5)"],"large_trades_count":48,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":66404.8137,"price":0.7783370475525946,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774020249},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":55000.7086,"price":0.7681973280765103,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1773935819},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":38500.0,"price":0.77,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774031019},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":33322.68,"price":0.75,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1773774405},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":32534.768200000002,"price":0.39565853871504125,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774629997},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":28876.372999999996,"price":0.58,"title":"TCU Horned Frogs vs. Ohio State Buckeyes","timestamp":1773889859},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":28266.0488,"price":0.7949950442975672,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774042163},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":25417.507149999998,"price":0.3872886639455268,"title":"Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?","timestamp":1773889993},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":23560.665,"price":0.4497388114402994,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774042091},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":22709.7921,"price":0.43,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?","timestamp":1773947357}]}

reasoning:
交易者 wan123（排名 #695，PnL $18.9w）在涉及美伊冲突的市场中表现出极高的活跃度和盈利能力。该笔交易发生的时间（4月1日 00:45 UTC）正值 3月31日晚间（美国东部时间）多条关于美伊停火的冲突性消息爆发期。虽然社交媒体上流传着‘假新闻/讽刺视频’的说法，但 Reuters、CNN 等主流媒体（根据 Grok 和搜索结果）开始报道卡塔尔调解的停火协议已达成。该交易者在市场仍处于 0.52 的高度不确定状态下果断加仓，显示其具备极强的信息甄别能力，能从噪音中锁定高真实度信号。此外，历史异常信号显示其他高排名鲸鱼（#925）在 24 小时前就已开始在 0.47 价格区间埋伏，说明‘聪明钱’群体对外交突破有提前预判。对手方主要持仓者是一个历史亏损达 460 万美元的账户，进一步增强了看多信号的可靠性。

insider_evidence:
1. 交易时机精准捕捉了 Reuters 和卡塔尔官方确认消息与市场传闻博弈的关键节点；2. 交易者 wan123 持续在相关冲突市场布局且历史盈亏极佳，显示其拥有专业的信息源或分析模型；3. 该市场出现了明显的高排名交易者集体看多（YES）而巨额亏损者持有看空（NO）的‘聪明钱对抗效应’。


id: 1466016_0x0dc07bcf9305b2a5becdaefac29bb2ab4f92110b556eaed695f38352316f7181-1261
market_id: 1466016
market_question: US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
condition_id: 0x80059ff4e694f878c0498f6f3a067ee7ca62dc2fc46251a4287b58355ce47bc5
transaction_hash: 0x0dc07bcf9305b2a5becdaefac29bb2ab4f92110b556eaed695f38352316f7181-1261
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0xa2ffc55eba11c7f0406cdbb29b25372c9bcdd80d
insider_evidence: 无明确内幕证据。交易方向与伊朗官方公开拒绝停火的表态高度一致，且赔率（0.65）反映了市场仍存在约 35% 的不确定性，不符合‘掌握必然结果’的内幕交易特征。
detected_at: 2026-03-31T19:02:59.015846
market_resolved_at: 2026-04-22T08:02:23.984962
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":12758,"pnl":8463.390521158175,"volume":46951.991442,"user_name":"morlic","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":5,"total_volume":41183.599992999996,"avg_trade_size":8236.7199986,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Ele","US government shutdown by October 1?"],"large_trades_count":3,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":20189.599999,"price":0.659337153819564,"title":"Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?","timestamp":1730150880},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9999.999999,"price":0.6503429918629539,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","timestamp":1774980243},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9983.999996999999,"price":0.7037999971265165,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","timestamp":1774892753}]}

reasoning:
该交易发生在伊朗外交部公开拒绝美国提出的 15 点停火协议（3月30-31日新闻）之后。公开新闻（Al Jazeera, AP）已明确报道伊朗认为美国条件‘不切实际’。交易者 morlic 虽然单笔金额大，但仅有 5 次交易记录，属于典型的‘集中押注型’鲸鱼而非高频专家。市场上存在更大规模的同向押注（如 Radar 持有 $23 万的 No），表明这更多是基于公开地缘政治局势恶化的共识性交易，而非信息不对称导致的内幕行为。


id: 1782688_0x443496f495549a8043c36cd6b1098edd86fe148f97946251c43a34eaae2befbe-688
market_id: 1782688
market_question: Over $9M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?
condition_id: 0x8b04dddbc3508f40d54d055f1e2c8b76344be9152f874583ad9a23e553ad4ce4
transaction_hash: 0x443496f495549a8043c36cd6b1098edd86fe148f97946251c43a34eaae2befbe-688
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0x1e0e8f5f626370cbc37e4b09a65e5452d9805001
detected_at: 2026-03-31T19:02:22.091087
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:11.281028
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":4033,"pnl":29147.80566304462,"volume":369836.632115,"user_name":"bigbraininvestor","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-3733311-a23b51b7-ce37-4b05-a739-4796fe95cb2e.JPG","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":53620.20027913416,"avg_trade_size":536.2020027913416,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Over $60M committed to the P2P Protocol public sal","Over $16M committed to the P2P Protocol public sal","Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sal","Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale","Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET","Over $14M committed to the P2P Protocol public sal","Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET","Over $12M committed to the P2P Protocol public sal","Over $20M committed to the P2P Protocol public sal","Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET"],"large_trades_count":0,"recent_trades":[]}

reasoning:
该交易者是市场的最大空头头寸持有者，且属于高盈亏排名的专业用户。在筹款进度停滞于 $6.7M 且剩余时间不足的情况下，持续大额买入 No 表现出对‘无大额资金后续进场’的极强信心。考虑到该项目团队已有在 Polymarket 交易的前科，不排除该鲸鱼通过技术手段监测实时承诺额度，或具备行业内幕视角。

insider_evidence:
1. 交易者为该市场 Top 1 No 持仓者，累计押注超过 $1.5万；2. 历史信号显示其在不同价格档位持续加仓 No，具有明显的定序清算特征；3. 市场公开数据（$6.7M）与 $9M 目标之间存在显著鸿沟，而看多方缺乏高排名资金支持。


id: 567560_0x7396e2ba7a7d5b71c1d656b9bc4e2990f9a07462032915a479d92645b70fab1e-1735
market_id: 567560
market_question: Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
condition_id: 0x5ec80dc407457301f282a2b44341947afc700dfaa7923d14c8894e04bc63b03f
transaction_hash: 0x7396e2ba7a7d5b71c1d656b9bc4e2990f9a07462032915a479d92645b70fab1e-1735
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0x88b59d79b6e1659c95a0043028e5bb7a26e6205c
insider_evidence: 缺乏内幕证据。该交易是对已公开的 Medián 炸弹级民调和 TISZA 党领先趋势的跟风，而非前置性埋伏。
detected_at: 2026-03-31T19:04:31.307986
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:08.846246
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2488859,"pnl":-121448.80433535659,"volume":9936521.074954,"user_name":"almost-never","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":399714.5304400001,"avg_trade_size":3997.1453044000014,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win ","Will Motoristé get between 5% and 7% of the vote i","Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?","Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 N","Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in ","SPD wins 14% or more of vote in Czech election?","Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-30?","US forces enter Iran by April 30?","Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia pre","Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor "],"large_trades_count":23,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":54031.1206,"price":0.9899083946081799,"title":"Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?","timestamp":1761831221},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":28632.62416,"price":0.9688462805532508,"title":" Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?","timestamp":1755185827},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":25188.0057,"price":0.99,"title":"Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?","timestamp":1760917951},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":23859.4158,"price":0.99,"title":"Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?","timestamp":1760917793},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":18980.0,"price":0.949,"title":"Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?","timestamp":1762174089},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":18351.3238,"price":0.998,"title":"Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025?","timestamp":1767081109},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":14250.0,"price":0.95,"title":"Democratic sweep?","timestamp":1762305561},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":12000.0,"price":0.8,"title":"Democratic sweep?","timestamp":1762251039},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10702.083600000002,"price":0.936,"title":"Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?","timestamp":1762035806},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10190.4199,"price":0.89,"title":"Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 12% and 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?","timestamp":1752347483}]}

reasoning:
该交易者历史亏损严重，其交易行为更符合追随市场热度（Chasing Momentum）而非掌握未公开内幕。交易发生时，欧尔班民调落后的消息已在主流媒体（Politico, Guardian）和社交媒体上广泛流传，市场已经对欧尔班连任失败进行了较充分定价（No @ 0.63）。


id: 1394299_0xc61ebc0bbbf66428d5fd6efeb51eb6d99e23942a021b370188558a7ff5503c35-3003
market_id: 1394299
market_question: US forces enter Iran by December 31?
condition_id: 0xe4b9a52d2bb336ff9d84799b70e72e8e5f4507df881af60f3f4daeb9f541a80e
transaction_hash: 0xc61ebc0bbbf66428d5fd6efeb51eb6d99e23942a021b370188558a7ff5503c35-3003
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35
detected_at: 2026-03-31T19:05:46.583008
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":76,"pnl":1303745.208860939,"volume":103388800.68193501,"user_name":"ScottyNooo","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-2861114-c1c15cef-e455-4932-9b26-66ad799b1a4a.webp","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":204468.71341999996,"avg_trade_size":2044.6871341999995,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US forces enter Iran by December 31?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?","Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?","Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by Ma","Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April","US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","Will Trump create a tariff dividend by March 31?","US forces enter Iran by March 31?","Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?"],"large_trades_count":12,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":33063.8848,"price":0.68,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774909281},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":25166.529300000002,"price":0.33,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774917847},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":18989.0022,"price":0.42,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774969931},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":11788.994999999999,"price":0.69,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774891623},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10039.56,"price":0.3,"title":"US forces enter Iran by December 31?","timestamp":1774969845},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9073.1004,"price":0.84,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1774966829},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8968.23525,"price":0.975,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774958967},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8228.800039999998,"price":0.974,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774958931},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7609.424,"price":0.32,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774917821},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7110.400000000001,"price":0.8,"title":"Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?","timestamp":1774969721}]}

reasoning:
该交易者 (ScottyNooo, Rank #76, PnL $1.3M) 在今日稍早曾重仓押注 '3月31日前美军进入伊朗' 的 Yes（单价 0.97 以上），这表明他曾高度预期地面行动在今天发生。随着 UTC 时间接近 4 月 1 日且地面入侵并未爆发，该交易者在 23:10 突然反手买入 12 月底截止市场的 No。结合另一名顶级交易者 (denizz, Rank #124) 在一小时前同样进行了大额 No 操作，显示出聪明钱正在集体撤离 '地面战争' 叙事。由于五角大楼当日简报仅称地面行动为 '选项' 而非 '决定'，且市场 Yes 赔率（67%）仍受 '五角大楼披萨指数' 等非正式信号支撑，职业交易者此举可能捕捉到了公开舆论与实际军事部署节奏之间的严重偏差。

insider_evidence:
1. 聪明钱聚集：排名前 200 且盈亏极佳的三名大户（#76, #124, #150）同时在 No 侧重仓，形成明显的专业共识。2. 择时转变：交易者从极致看多（0.97 Yes）到反手看空（0.30 No）的精准反转发生在五角大楼简报结束后，可能意味着他获取了简报字面意思之外的深层情报（如行动受阻或仅限空袭）。3. 规则套利：市场描述明确要求 '陆上领土进入'，而新闻显示目前美军行动仍停留在空袭和海上打击阶段，交易者可能掌握了特殊部队暂无越境计划的确切信息。


id: 1708086_0xd8da429a487e1a36cb96ef2088a02fb3d1f9d3980e9efd52e3cb621600092d84-1630
market_id: 1708086
market_question: Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
condition_id: 0x6897736d782ce70f47126dfcec6669073f563d6e757e60bc61c0367370d6f73e
transaction_hash: 0xd8da429a487e1a36cb96ef2088a02fb3d1f9d3980e9efd52e3cb621600092d84-1630
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x0a33fa80244e1e1ab627a38c5735abfd2dd43a4f
insider_evidence: 无。交易行为与公开新闻流高度同步，且交易者历史表现不足以证明其拥有非公开情报渠道。
detected_at: 2026-03-31T19:07:31.675350
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:18.079207
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":80540,"pnl":686.0102455398898,"volume":489290.78801200003,"user_name":"PublioCornelio","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":63,"total_volume":30427.465150999986,"avg_trade_size":482.9756373174601,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?","US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April","Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 3 to","US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","US forces enter Iran by March 31?","US forces enter Iran by April 30?","Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?","Will France win Eurovision 2026?","José Luís Rodríguez Zapatero arrested by March 31?"],"large_trades_count":0,"recent_trades":[]}

reasoning:
该交易者排名较低，且在公开媒体密集报道特朗普‘夺岛威胁’后的数小时内入场。其买入价格（0.35）远高于当前市场价（0.26），显示出明显的追高情绪。该交易者缺乏对复杂军事解析条件的深入理解（混淆了‘攻击’与‘控制’），且其对手方是多位排名 Top 600 的高盈利职业交易者，信号质量较差。


id: 1706788_0x15aa445bc6d1b37b9e0a6470352bde328ddc06645c23c824b7517325a18751cb-5910
market_id: 1706788
market_question: US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
condition_id: 0x4c5701bcde0b8fb7d7f48c8e9d20245a6caa58c61a77f981fad98f2bfa0b1bc7
transaction_hash: 0x15aa445bc6d1b37b9e0a6470352bde328ddc06645c23c824b7517325a18751cb-5910
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b
insider_evidence: 在 24 小时内从极端看战转向看好停火，且精准踩在油价因停火传闻暴跌的时间点。这种对单一事件簇的持续重仓和敏感转向是典型的高信息含量交易信号。
detected_at: 2026-03-31T19:08:25.709016
market_resolved_at: 2026-04-22T08:02:37.297443
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":695,"pnl":189923.32452012284,"volume":13726177.780926999,"user_name":"wan123","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":857470.2029326372,"avg_trade_size":8574.702029326372,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers","Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-15.5)","Northern Iowa Panthers vs. St. John's Red Storm","McNeese State Cowboys vs. Vanderbilt Commodores: O","St. John's Red Storm vs. Kansas Jayhawks","Spread: Alabama Crimson Tide (-11.5)","US forces enter Iran by December 31?","Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for K","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?","Spread: St. John's Red Storm (-9.5)"],"large_trades_count":48,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":66404.8137,"price":0.7783370475525946,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774020249},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":55000.7086,"price":0.7681973280765103,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1773935819},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":38500.0,"price":0.77,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774031019},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":33322.68,"price":0.75,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1773774405},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":32534.768200000002,"price":0.39565853871504125,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774629997},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":28876.372999999996,"price":0.58,"title":"TCU Horned Frogs vs. Ohio State Buckeyes","timestamp":1773889859},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":28266.0488,"price":0.7949950442975672,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774042163},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":25417.507149999998,"price":0.3872886639455268,"title":"Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?","timestamp":1773889993},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":23560.665,"price":0.4497388114402994,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774042091},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":22709.7921,"price":0.43,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?","timestamp":1773947357}]}

reasoning:
交易者 wan123 是一名专注于伊朗局势的资深玩家。他在‘3月31日开战’的重仓押注失败后，立即反向买入‘4月7日停火’，这种剧烈的观点切换通常由对最新谈判进展的敏锐洞察驱动。目前市场处于‘特朗普宣称停火 vs 伊朗否认’的信息拉锯战中，10% 的赔率极具吸引力，交易者显然在押注外交渠道的真实进度领先于公开新闻的确认。


id: 1484895_0xc16346f73a2864123358c11560739f0a997662adb58148a5127aa1a4ce352dcb-595
market_id: 1484895
market_question: US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?
condition_id: 0x81b06cb917c9a2aabc67a7765bc3c640e88a699bbf451b29915049c0766cde04
transaction_hash: 0xc16346f73a2864123358c11560739f0a997662adb58148a5127aa1a4ce352dcb-595
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x7f9e2d1df78614564a70becc7fa14aa9a6623a0e
detected_at: 2026-03-31T19:09:26.166830
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:10.412577
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":489,"pnl":263688.21893015236,"volume":2846824.848469999,"user_name":"nojnn","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":211020.20191882938,"avg_trade_size":2110.202019188294,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?","Will Iran strike Syria in March?","Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?","Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June","Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?","Iran Nuke before 2027?","Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of Marc","Netanyahu out by June 30?","Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?","Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of Marc"],"large_trades_count":4,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":10327.042619999998,"price":0.999,"title":"Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?","timestamp":1774982071},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10327.039998,"price":0.9199999999251673,"title":"Netanyahu out by June 30?","timestamp":1774982089},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":9990.0,"price":0.999,"title":"Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?","timestamp":1774981855},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9989.999998,"price":0.8639108395959507,"title":"Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?","timestamp":1774981879}]}

reasoning:
交易者 nojnn (排名 #489, PnL ~$26.3万) 在重大地缘政治传闻背景下进场。实时搜索显示，2026年3月31日晚间至4月1日凌晨，社交媒体（如 ABC、Twitter）出现了‘特朗普宣布伊朗与以色列达成6小时内停火’的突发消息。然而，该消息与五角大楼‘继续以炸弹谈判’及伊朗‘拒绝美方15点方案’的官方强硬态度严重冲突。该交易发生于 UTC 03:07（美东时间31日深夜），属于对社交媒体传闻的‘第一时间反应’。由于 0.65 的价格反映了市场对传闻真实性的巨大分歧（而非 0.9+ 的确定性定价），且该交易者历史偏好能源和中东政局，这更像是一次基于极速信息流的高风险博弈，而非掌握未公开协议文本的内幕交易。

insider_evidence:
该交易时间点完美契合 Twitter 上‘6小时停火’传闻爆发后的 2-3 小时窗口。交易者并非在传闻出现前潜伏，而是在公开信息处于高度混乱状态（传闻 vs 官方否认）时选择押注传闻一方。其 $5,000 的规模相对于其 $200万+ 的历史交易量属于温和，符合‘验证性头寸’特征。


id: 567560_0xf68cb1fe085b4892207261e4c010d8252de672810bc95752f888b6c7b4ca1289-2047
market_id: 567560
market_question: Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
condition_id: 0x5ec80dc407457301f282a2b44341947afc700dfaa7923d14c8894e04bc63b03f
transaction_hash: 0xf68cb1fe085b4892207261e4c010d8252de672810bc95752f888b6c7b4ca1289-2047
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0x5b90d4fab4e082795eeb231b121691a0cb12c44e
insider_evidence: 该交易与No方第一名（$1.1M持仓者）方向一致，且交易者选择使用无历史记录的干净钱包，符合知情人士隐匿身份的特征。
detected_at: 2026-03-31T19:20:48.197105
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:08.846246
resolved_outcome: No
trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":1,"total_volume":4995.9,"avg_trade_size":4995.9,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor "],"large_trades_count":0,"recent_trades":[]}

reasoning:
交易者为全新白号，单笔押注金额较大。虽然匈牙利反对党领先是公开新闻，但交易时机处于选前12天的敏感窗口，不排除该交易者掌握了尚未公开的内部民调（Internal Polls）或Fidesz党内部的选情评估。然而，由于该操作顺应了目前市场上更高排名巨鲸（如lava-lava）的共识，其'独家内幕'色彩被稀释。


id: 1797309_0x8e3a6f975017f094064b2978975bcb68c279dffb035c7c75575dd2ac027a479e-2222
market_id: 1797309
market_question: Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?
condition_id: 0x10d4b55e87cd8df815a88de7a8eccdff77418d361285a540fbdc6505bb99a4a2
transaction_hash: 0x8e3a6f975017f094064b2978975bcb68c279dffb035c7c75575dd2ac027a479e-2222
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35
insider_evidence: 无直接内幕证据。该笔交易更符合其作为顶级‘战争猎手’的公开策略，即在极端政治事件定价不足时进行高赔率投注。
detected_at: 2026-03-31T19:26:27.041714
market_resolved_at: 2026-04-22T08:02:37.927228
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":76,"pnl":1303745.208860939,"volume":103388800.68193501,"user_name":"ScottyNooo","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-2861114-c1c15cef-e455-4932-9b26-66ad799b1a4a.webp","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":204180.91533999995,"avg_trade_size":2041.8091533999996,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US forces enter Iran by December 31?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?","Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?","Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by Ma","Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April","US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","Will Trump create a tariff dividend by March 31?","US forces enter Iran by March 31?","Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?"],"large_trades_count":12,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":33063.8848,"price":0.68,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774909281},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":25166.529300000002,"price":0.33,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774917847},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":18989.0022,"price":0.42,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774969931},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":11788.994999999999,"price":0.69,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774891623},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10039.56,"price":0.3,"title":"US forces enter Iran by December 31?","timestamp":1774969845},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9073.1004,"price":0.84,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1774966829},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8968.23525,"price":0.975,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774958967},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8228.800039999998,"price":0.974,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774958931},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7609.424,"price":0.32,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774917821},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7110.400000000001,"price":0.8,"title":"Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?","timestamp":1774969721}]}

reasoning:
交易者 ScottyNooo 是高排名的顶级玩家，其策略表现出极强的新闻驱动特征。该笔交易发生在该岛屿遭受打击及特朗普发出最后通牒后的舆论发酵期。交易者利用市场对'地面占领'的极端厌恶（仅给11%概率）进行反向博弈。虽然信息源基本公开，但其在大额押注上的果断及跨市场的一致性，暗示其可能掌握了更精准的军事动员分析或政治信号研判。


id: 1640919_0xa704c337480e16e9efd84871ea7f2a055bb19e8c753f4b76989d65e66743c070-1108
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0xa704c337480e16e9efd84871ea7f2a055bb19e8c753f4b76989d65e66743c070-1108
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xa41e7f2866a8a2afda511d89468cda85ad9430f9
insider_evidence: 无。该笔交易买入价格 (0.59) 处于市场共识区间，且交易者在相关市场的历史表现极差。
detected_at: 2026-03-31T21:12:50.375037
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2488002,"pnl":-50454.967184328634,"volume":460230.43824000005,"user_name":"gulliver4","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":20,"total_volume":112632.18811,"avg_trade_size":5631.6094055,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US forces enter Iran by March 31?","US forces enter Iran by April 30?"],"large_trades_count":8,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":15258.169200000002,"price":0.5925461181242229,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774377263},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":14264.482600000001,"price":0.282465001980198,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1773832065},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":13500.0,"price":0.45,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1773479711},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9831.8911,"price":0.5937566150666806,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774377969},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":7368.52619,"price":0.12248760732692214,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774816234},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7006.8404,"price":0.5997287079476349,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774378119},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5996.6175,"price":0.23,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774261805},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5896.6664,"price":0.23,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774262181}]}

reasoning:
交易者 gulliver4 是一名历史胜率极低、PnL 严重亏损的零售鲸鱼。其交易行为更像是对 3 月 31 日失败头寸的展期或情绪化追涨，而非掌握了内幕。目前关于美军动向（B-52 巡航、地面部队抵达）的信息已由主流媒体广泛报道，市场 59% 的价格已充分定价公开的军事紧张局势。


id: 1517835_0x01da84d2a467631115c132f02460724cfe06d930af1fe13197162d204876660d-1484
market_id: 1517835
market_question: Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
condition_id: 0xfa59099fbda1e0f0058ed3cbd57e939fe90ab6d9b57d53bd488bcadf75c191d4
transaction_hash: 0x01da84d2a467631115c132f02460724cfe06d930af1fe13197162d204876660d-1484
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b
insider_evidence: 公开信息中已包含特朗普关于‘接近结束’和‘推迟打击’的言论，市场赔率 0.57 已充分反映了这些预期。目前未发现该交易者在特定公告发布前数小时内有精准的超大规模重仓行为。
detected_at: 2026-03-31T21:56:22.630341
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:06:04.812226
resolved_outcome: No
trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":866448.5889326372,"avg_trade_size":8664.485889326372,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers","Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-15.5)","Northern Iowa Panthers vs. St. John's Red Storm","McNeese State Cowboys vs. Vanderbilt Commodores: O","St. John's Red Storm vs. Kansas Jayhawks","Spread: Alabama Crimson Tide (-11.5)","US forces enter Iran by December 31?","Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for K","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?","Spread: St. John's Red Storm (-9.5)"],"large_trades_count":49,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":66404.8137,"price":0.7783370475525946,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774020249},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":55000.7086,"price":0.7681973280765103,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1773935819},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":38500.0,"price":0.77,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774031019},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":33322.68,"price":0.75,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1773774405},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":32534.768200000002,"price":0.39565853871504125,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774629997},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":28876.372999999996,"price":0.58,"title":"TCU Horned Frogs vs. Ohio State Buckeyes","timestamp":1773889859},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":28266.0488,"price":0.7949950442975672,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774042163},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":25417.507149999998,"price":0.3872886639455268,"title":"Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?","timestamp":1773889993},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":23560.665,"price":0.4497388114402994,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774042091},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":22709.7921,"price":0.43,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?","timestamp":1773947357}]}

reasoning:
交易者 wan123 虽然排名靠前且盈利，但此笔交易金额低于其平均水平，且与他在关联市场（看多美军进入伊朗）的仓位存在潜在冲突，更像是一种复杂的对冲或阶段性博弈。最关键的是，全站排名前 100 的顶级交易者 SwissMiss 站在其对手方（看空），这暗示市场存在严重的认知分歧，而非单方面的信息泄露。


id: 1517835_0x0c5d30d68fb9fe3daad2440cfcdb973962749914fff757ba342bebe0f8055462-1178
market_id: 1517835
market_question: Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
condition_id: 0xfa59099fbda1e0f0058ed3cbd57e939fe90ab6d9b57d53bd488bcadf75c191d4
transaction_hash: 0x0c5d30d68fb9fe3daad2440cfcdb973962749914fff757ba342bebe0f8055462-1178
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0x5e417ff4129f3876efdb5ea3fb36a807802c3745
insider_evidence: 交易者在同一市场的头寸从 BUY Yes 彻底反转为 BUY No，且金额放大 12 倍，显示出对‘4月30日前无法正式结案’的强烈信心。
detected_at: 2026-03-31T22:00:56.933980
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:06:04.812226
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":27280,"pnl":3361.4808746486915,"volume":98047.80554300001,"user_name":"basypteo","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":87,"total_volume":56653.791394302745,"avg_trade_size":651.1930045322155,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election?","Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of th","Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-12?","Will Christian Estrosi win the 2026 Nice mayoral e","Will Catherine Trautmann be the next mayor of Stra","Will RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. HNK Rijeka end in a ","Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most cityw","Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-03-19?","Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2025-10-26?","Will France win on 2026-03-29?"],"large_trades_count":4,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":8420.02583,"price":0.8716328708103263,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774829110},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8354.759993,"price":0.8648764459137179,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774818282},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":8005.86073,"price":0.9687352654327561,"title":"Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?","timestamp":1774818224},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6914.919994999999,"price":0.8199940708157477,"title":"Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?","timestamp":1774432773}]}

reasoning:
该交易者近期在同类市场频繁翻仓，表现出敏锐的事件驱动型交易风格。此笔交易是在特朗普释放乐观信号后，针对‘军事行动结束’这一严格定义的反向押注。考虑到国防部加强打击的公开报道及特朗普‘尚未准备好宣布’的表态，该交易更多是基于公开信息的深度解读和对外交烟雾弹的警惕，而非内幕。但其远超均值的交易规模和精准的方向切换仍具有一定的参考价值。


id: 1517835_0x73ca03e5e0a3c1eeb5e1152d7efbaab2395003cdb667b6fb891d0e73eb664606-794
market_id: 1517835
market_question: Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
condition_id: 0xfa59099fbda1e0f0058ed3cbd57e939fe90ab6d9b57d53bd488bcadf75c191d4
transaction_hash: 0x73ca03e5e0a3c1eeb5e1152d7efbaab2395003cdb667b6fb891d0e73eb664606-794
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x60567382d04d7af8776eea04468a918519ebc27c
reasoning: 交易者在重大传闻声明前 15 小时进行大额反手操作（从看空冲突到看好停火）。虽然停火传闻已部分公开，但其交易规模和时机的精准度暗示其对今晚 7:30 声明的具体‘鸽派’定调有更高信心。
insider_evidence: 该交易者结清了所有冲突升级类头寸，转而重仓押注停火。考虑到社交媒体上关于 7:30 声明内容的剧烈争议，这种决绝的调仓行为具有强烈的信息指向性。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T01:30:28.447533
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:06:04.812226
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":17998,"pnl":5470.4987963616695,"volume":258870.66573100002,"user_name":"akimbogod","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-3090043-5bc28a3b-6538-4c7e-a4b3-4a84f5af465b.jpg","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":94425.65097400003,"avg_trade_size":944.2565097400003,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March","Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champ","Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champi","Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?","Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by Ma","Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?","Will Trump visit China by April 30?","US forces enter Iran by March 31?","Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of Marc","Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March"],"large_trades_count":3,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":18451.49755,"price":0.992015997311828,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1774627783},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":18451.489997999997,"price":0.9399999999867544,"title":"Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?","timestamp":1774627815},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":14910.0,"price":0.994,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1774627377}]}


id: 1640919_0x7784796cf3d1c15cdb7afaae444c617c84c5e92bf0898cd9f379a01659e581f6-4020
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0x7784796cf3d1c15cdb7afaae444c617c84c5e92bf0898cd9f379a01659e581f6-4020
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35
detected_at: 2026-04-01T01:42:08.905843
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":225927.22211999996,"avg_trade_size":2259.2722211999994,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US forces enter Iran by December 31?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?","Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?","Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by Ma","Will a Gulf State carry out military action agains","Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April","US forces enter Iran by March 31?","Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March?","US forces enter Iran by April 30?"],"large_trades_count":17,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":25166.529300000002,"price":0.33,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774917847},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":18989.0022,"price":0.42,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774969931},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":11239.2429,"price":0.57,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775007551},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10039.56,"price":0.3,"title":"US forces enter Iran by December 31?","timestamp":1774969845},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9484.98202,"price":0.998,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","timestamp":1774994161},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9073.1004,"price":0.84,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1774966829},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8968.23525,"price":0.975,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774958967},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8869.83904,"price":0.992,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774991439},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8816.8859,"price":0.9919988636363636,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774993695},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8228.800039999998,"price":0.974,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774958931}]}

reasoning:
该交易者 ScottyNooo (排名 #76, PnL ~$1.3M) 是典型的‘地缘政治专家型鲸鱼’。尽管他在 3 月 31 日的市场中对‘入叙/入伊’的判断可能因时间点误差而受损（历史信号显示其曾高位买入 3 月 31 日到期的 Yes），但他立即在 4 月 1 日重仓布局 4 月 30 日的市场，显示了极强的战略一致性。目前公开信息显示 1.7 万美军正抵达海湾地区，且特朗普表示冲突将在 2-3 周内结束，这与 4 月 30 日的时间表高度吻合。该鲸鱼的优势在于对美军部署节奏的深度理解，而非绝对的内幕指令，因为其之前的择时并非完美。

insider_evidence:
交易者在 3 月 31 日市场结算（大概率为 No）后几小时内，迅速将头寸‘滚动’至 4 月 30 日市场，并伴随着 Top 200 内多名高盈亏交易者（如 SecondWindCapital）的集体看多。这种‘聪明钱共识’在地缘政治重大转折点前具有极高的指示意义。


id: 1640919_0x771f5cbc1b4167e9124cfc98dc990c420c09aa48d4dd7cce04feb315ef5de86d-1858
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0x771f5cbc1b4167e9124cfc98dc990c420c09aa48d4dd7cce04feb315ef5de86d-1858
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xd3a6e523c440f94f9259398fbcf7b5cc5ccffd55
insider_evidence: CNN 报道确认该交易者所属集群对美伊冲突的预测具有超越公开信息的精准度；多位 Top 200 交易者在 24 小时内同步暴力扫货 Yes。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T01:51:23.518755
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":241,"pnl":528050.3676979493,"volume":14830873.759993998,"user_name":"operationcastle","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":108296.72599721448,"avg_trade_size":1082.9672599721448,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","Northern Iowa Panthers vs. St. John's Red Storm","Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic","Government shutdown on Saturday?","Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?","Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of","Will Jasmine Crockett win the Texas Democratic Sen","Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed c","Will Tennessee win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?","Will Trump say \"Six Seven\" during the 2026 State o"],"large_trades_count":3,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":13499.937,"price":0.9,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","timestamp":1772056868},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":11815.123590000001,"price":0.969,"title":"Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?","timestamp":1770678193},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":11806.112070000001,"price":0.999,"title":"Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?","timestamp":1772649819}]}

reasoning:
该交易者已被主流媒体（CNN）点名疑似掌握伊朗战事内幕。其历史记录显示其能精准预测未公开的军事行动。当前交易伴随着其他顶级盈利交易者的同步集结，表明一波未披露的地面军事行动可能即将发生或已在秘密执行中。


id: 1541748_0x4ff4d67cf6a53c084e14767e8be46448959d7906f50bc2095ea444186b5eaca8-1100
market_id: 1541748
market_question: MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?
condition_id: 0x742fec2bf8157b780b2cf6b188076b9bd830122e665c216bc0f1e2d77e21cd23
transaction_hash: 0x4ff4d67cf6a53c084e14767e8be46448959d7906f50bc2095ea444186b5eaca8-1100
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xeb6789ca6b1425ff908a69a2a5469c38532cd696
detected_at: 2026-04-01T02:24:30.951365
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:18.954667
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":14189,"pnl":7328.684804668336,"volume":667000.9019099999,"user_name":"ExitLiquidty","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":37426.10863318214,"avg_trade_size":374.26108633182145,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31?","Based FDV above $75M one day after launch?","Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sal","MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after laun","P2P FDV above $5M one day after launch?","Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?","P2P FDV above $10M one day after launch?","Over $60M committed to the P2P Protocol public sal","Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch?","Over $80M committed to the P2P Protocol public sal"],"large_trades_count":0,"recent_trades":[]}

reasoning:
交易者 ExitLiquidty 是该市场的头号持仓者，且该账号具有极强的专业化倾向（专注 FDV 市场）。在赔率接近 1:1 且面临 3 个月结算死线的情况下，其大手笔买入 Yes 显然是在赌 TGE 能够在 6 月前完成。考虑到其在该领域的活跃度，不排除其通过开发者社区或早期投资者渠道获知了关于 TGE 进度的正面进展。

insider_evidence:
该交易者是此市场的 Top 1 Yes 持仓者，在赔率低于 0.5 时继续大幅加仓，而此时市场最大的不确定性不是‘价值’而是‘时间’。这种在死线前夕的重仓行为通常暗示其对‘发币时间’有非公开的乐观预期。


id: 1484894_0xba0e365880ea20d8b4d58cc8625dc2709e929148c5bf42c2d94b812faaedbb31-2010
market_id: 1484894
market_question: US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
condition_id: 0xa9937410f8aae98cc6440a7480ad832be5a1a998afcf5a6e77c6f5aa4c0f259f
transaction_hash: 0xba0e365880ea20d8b4d58cc8625dc2709e929148c5bf42c2d94b812faaedbb31-2010
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0xa39e8a1fed07d38803b535893144a34e3d761d88
insider_evidence: 无。交易时机与公开负面新闻发布高度吻合，且交易者缺乏在该领域的获利记录。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T04:17:30.179504
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:12.840796
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2338192,"pnl":-640.3981721069583,"volume":1004083.7504730001,"user_name":"Bozodi","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":149476.09585000013,"avg_trade_size":1494.7609585000014,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz betw","Iran leadership change by March 31?","Will anyone be kicked out of Trump's State of the ","Will Artemis II launch by April 30?","Will Norway win Eurovision 2026?","Prince Andrew charged by March 31?","Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair","Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of I","US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?"],"large_trades_count":8,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":11528.059998,"price":0.7413482779564109,"title":"Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?","timestamp":1774412849},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":11528.05923,"price":0.7470041406418578,"title":"Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?","timestamp":1774407457},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":11495.02562,"price":0.7421747783811006,"title":"Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?","timestamp":1774431715},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9208.619999,"price":0.4932503450080778,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?","timestamp":1775017009},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":9150.0,"price":0.15,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1774968373},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":5940.28594,"price":0.6911198790947464,"title":"Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?","timestamp":1774581283},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5508.009998,"price":0.6478361089666177,"title":"Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?","timestamp":1774511339},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5292.269999,"price":0.3618847016616514,"title":"Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?","timestamp":1773804791}]}

reasoning:
交易者 Bozodi 排名极低且历史亏损，这笔交易是对伊朗外长 4 月 1 日公开拒绝停火协议新闻的滞后反应。其方向与市场中多位高盈利率（PnL > $400k）的顶尖交易者完全相反，不具备内幕信号特征。


id: 1640919_0xff5d2d0e8b7c7ee2fc5f5378208b27bf80d5991ce444c5370a71966589d31f79-986
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0xff5d2d0e8b7c7ee2fc5f5378208b27bf80d5991ce444c5370a71966589d31f79-986
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x87d2d8f4f382ce6e3a31017ad7e778a3dc63efb2
detected_at: 2026-04-01T04:52:54.582245
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":12309,"pnl":8878.607332328158,"volume":312130.83228499995,"user_name":"Skdel","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":35,"total_volume":227002.6630846514,"avg_trade_size":6485.790373847183,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans","US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers","Saint Louis Billikens vs. Michigan Wolverines","US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","US forces enter Iran by April 30?","US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?","US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?","TCU Horned Frogs vs. Duke Blue Devils","US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?"],"large_trades_count":14,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":23558.259998,"price":0.8113961029695855,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","timestamp":1774017191},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":23558.2578,"price":0.93,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","timestamp":1774017087},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":23015.519997999996,"price":0.5743458741587221,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775019105},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":23015.518200000002,"price":0.81,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","timestamp":1775019063},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":18491.86651,"price":0.9918422110967842,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?","timestamp":1773507717},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":18491.859998000004,"price":0.8599999999748863,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","timestamp":1773507749},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":14634.37,"price":0.7849387345638134,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?","timestamp":1772500657},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":14634.36262,"price":0.998,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1772448981},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10469.989998,"price":0.7140077011659413,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1772290407},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8453.199998,"price":0.8599999999348885,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","timestamp":1773688515}]}

reasoning:
交易者表现出极高的地缘政治专业性，其操作逻辑与顶级聪明钱（#60, #164, #76）完全同步。多个高排名账户在过去12小时内密集买入，且社交媒体出现关于‘今日官宣地面行动’的具体传闻，暗示该交易者极可能掌握了美军地面部队越境的先导信息或白宫内部公告的时间表。

insider_evidence:
1. 交易者将所有头寸从停火转为地面行动，显示极强方向感。2. 过去24小时内包括#76在内的多名顶级鲸鱼连续扫货，形成‘机构级’共识。3. 交易时机精准捕捉了市场对于‘4月1日行动升级’的预期窗口。


id: 1640919_0xe392c66bdb71bb89209121abdb90b298d838d4ea41abb61e8d2d4f4105fe811b-2563
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0xe392c66bdb71bb89209121abdb90b298d838d4ea41abb61e8d2d4f4105fe811b-2563
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x031d98aa60916870a6b90ad5bd635ec5936277e1
insider_evidence: 1. 完美的仓位翻转（从停火转向入境）；2. 顶级鲸鱼 (#76, #164) 的集体同步买入行为；3. 市场价格（0.57）尚未完全定价特朗普关于'占领领土'的暗示。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T04:58:19.105937
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":12756,"pnl":8489.70900292277,"volume":295094.807427,"user_name":"Hansjolly","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":23,"total_volume":190137.22056800002,"avg_trade_size":8266.835676869567,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?","US forces enter Iran by April 30?","US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?","US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?","Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at ","US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?","Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 9, 2026?","Final Stage: USA vs. Venezuela"],"large_trades_count":13,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":21116.479994,"price":0.8669177537594053,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","timestamp":1773688635},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":19325.8257,"price":0.9265377208193839,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","timestamp":1774017437},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":19325.819997,"price":0.8457938914226626,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","timestamp":1774017467},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":18453.169998999998,"price":0.576648156047851,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775019341},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":18453.1654,"price":0.8076023881673503,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","timestamp":1775019305},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":12456.21764,"price":0.998,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1772449153},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":10737.722319999999,"price":0.988,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?","timestamp":1773454749},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10737.72,"price":0.75,"title":"Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?","timestamp":1773459023},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8456.209998,"price":0.7780730931553302,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?","timestamp":1772500031},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8073.169999,"price":0.6468270169352638,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1772290723}]}

reasoning:
该交易者在特朗普宣布'Operation Epic Fury'及提到可能占领哈尔克岛后，立即清空了停火仓位并反手重仓押注美军入境。其行为与市场内多名 Top 100 顶级鲸鱼（如 #76, #164）的步调高度一致。这反映出一种由特定军事决策引发的'聪明钱共识'。虽然战争是公开的，但具体的'地面/特种部队入境'时刻属于极高频的信息差领域。


id: 567561_0x967db2b673108ffd44a14f16f0c57a230eca65a7237e58b94840f2e8b0e64741-2229
market_id: 567561
market_question: Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
condition_id: 0x1480b819d03d4b6388d70e848b0384adf38c38d955cb783cdbcf6d4a436dee14
transaction_hash: 0x967db2b673108ffd44a14f16f0c57a230eca65a7237e58b94840f2e8b0e64741-2229
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x0df6ee211ab992ec15322b111cafb5f16a2ac1f3
detected_at: 2026-04-01T05:03:29.258564
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:09.723264
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":505014,"pnl":2.9866472125199834,"volume":4616.1471599999995,"user_name":"0x0DF6eE211aB992EC15322B111CAFb5F16a2aC1F3-1758438213392","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":3,"total_volume":2882.109997,"avg_trade_size":960.7033323333334,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter M"],"large_trades_count":0,"recent_trades":[]}

reasoning:
该笔交易发生在匈牙利大选（4月12日）前的关键冲刺期。交易者账户（0x0df6...）虽然排名极低且此前交易记录极少（仅3次），但此次突然投入 $14,927 买入 Yes，显示出极强的定向意图。结合社交媒体和公开新闻，4月1日前后匈牙利舆情剧烈波动：反对派领导人 Péter Magyar 的 Tisza 党在多项民调中不仅领先（48% vs 40%），且领先优势正在扩大；同时，Magyar 正面临亲政府阵营的‘色情陷阱/录音’丑闻反击。尽管该交易金额较大，但在涉及主权国家选举的宏观市场中，民调数据和政治集会信息大多公开透明，且市场价格（0.63）已基本反映了 Magyar 领先的公开预期。目前并无证据显示该交易者掌握了超越民调或内部丑闻反转的非公开信息，更像是一个受近期‘民调优势扩大’消息刺激的新入场大户，或是对冲政治风险的特定选民。

insider_evidence:
该市场近期已连续出现多笔看多 Yes 的异常大额交易（总额超过 $30,000），且 Top 持仓者中不乏排名 #203 的‘聪明钱’（lava-lava）。交易时间点（4月1日 13:01 UTC）正值匈牙利多份‘重磅民调’（36-53 领先幅度）在社交媒体广泛传播之后，符合‘消息驱动型交易’特征，而非典型的‘公告前潜伏型内幕交易’。


id: 567560_0xcd43e8c14daa3cad672ece7bb71f0143c4812f18caa404f9f85c74e92775fe22-1204
market_id: 567560
market_question: Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
condition_id: 0x5ec80dc407457301f282a2b44341947afc700dfaa7923d14c8894e04bc63b03f
transaction_hash: 0xcd43e8c14daa3cad672ece7bb71f0143c4812f18caa404f9f85c74e92775fe22-1204
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0x5b90d4fab4e082795eeb231b121691a0cb12c44e
insider_evidence: 1. 交易规模与账户历史极其不匹配；2. 交易发生在多份灾难性民调公开后的市场情绪临界点；3. 与持仓超过100万美元的神秘大鲸鱼处于同一阵营。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T05:23:06.820207
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:08.846246
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2160269,"pnl":-137.40000000000146,"volume":27480.0,"user_name":"1337t","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":4,"total_volume":17312.4,"avg_trade_size":4328.1,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor "],"large_trades_count":1,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8983.8,"price":0.63,"title":"Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?","timestamp":1774984677}]}

reasoning:
交易者虽排名较低且历史表现一般，但其在选举倒计时阶段突然进行的超常规重仓（偏离历史均值20倍）且方向与顶级专家（lava-lava等）一致，显示出极高的确定性。虽然民调是公开的，但这种时机的精准把握暗示其可能拥有更实时或更高精度的内部数据源。


id: 1484895_0x3613c3076cd2bd735a8a3d1186018bebd34616e6a184fc3b1a09349df9b246ef-1093
market_id: 1484895
market_question: US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?
condition_id: 0x81b06cb917c9a2aabc67a7765bc3c640e88a699bbf451b29915049c0766cde04
transaction_hash: 0x3613c3076cd2bd735a8a3d1186018bebd34616e6a184fc3b1a09349df9b246ef-1093
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x7814fea2092726c2d892a65e4fda3bf502ff8d4e
insider_evidence: 无。交易时机紧随公开新闻发布，缺乏抢跑特征；交易者资质平庸，且正在被市场顶级交易者反向收割。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T05:28:44.540371
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:10.412577
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":24913,"pnl":3776.3854925886035,"volume":282288.488762,"user_name":"Fabricius01","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-6413407-de850b77-0fcd-4e01-8456-bfa32684c863.webp","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":92678.32932260171,"avg_trade_size":926.7832932260171,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US forces enter Iran by March 31?","Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of Marc","Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of Marc","US forces enter Iran by December 31?","US forces enter Iran by April 30?","Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of Marc","Cuban regime falls in 2026?","US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?","Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of Marc","Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?"],"large_trades_count":6,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":9442.7641,"price":0.40482024211796197,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774926607},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9398.689999,"price":0.6475624498217543,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?","timestamp":1775021267},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":6795.0,"price":0.9,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774687277},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6719.5,"price":0.89,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774275631},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":6136.0,"price":0.59,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774729440},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":5625.6636,"price":0.87,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774265391}]}

reasoning:
交易行为高度吻合公开新闻流（特朗普推文及NYT报道），且交易者正在进行明显的追涨杀跌式调仓。该交易者历史胜率和排名并不突出，无法支撑其拥有核心机密信息的假设。最重要的信号是市场顶级精英（Top 100）集体站在其对立面（No方），这通常意味着公开新闻可能存在某种程度的误导或夸大。


id: 1640919_0xaf5e45156e175306cf03b1b0511474a6e8fa0148798d22b23122d3064b06c426-1185
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0xaf5e45156e175306cf03b1b0511474a6e8fa0148798d22b23122d3064b06c426-1185
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xdbedc5ab35d896d3226c6ea5e1708dfc631f10f7
detected_at: 2026-04-01T05:38:55.469524
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":1744,"pnl":72151.93927212342,"volume":1689489.3044800002,"user_name":"bobi13","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":195328.40651818947,"avg_trade_size":1953.2840651818947,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US forces enter Iran by March 31?","US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?","US forces enter Iran by April 30?","Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET","Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Leb","Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31","US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?","Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader o","Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?"],"large_trades_count":6,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":19522.0878,"price":0.6806340166953663,"title":"Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?","timestamp":1773831843},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":16757.579999999998,"price":0.6,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774971927},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":12906.443200000002,"price":0.56,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774976389},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":11334.695099999999,"price":0.57,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775021815},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8744.0588,"price":0.68,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774806244},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6115.955,"price":0.58,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775011623}]}

reasoning:
交易者为地缘政治垂直领域的盈利专家，其操作表现出极强的择时性：在3月市场失败后，精准捕捉到‘哈尔克岛夺取计划’及‘海军陆战队增援’的公开线索，并与多位顶级盈利鲸鱼（如TheQuietRisk）形成共识阵营。虽然目前信息多源于公开传闻，但其在敏感时点的重仓再入场表明其对军事情报的解读速度优于普通零售投资者。

insider_evidence:
该市场近期连续出现8笔针对Yes的鲸鱼信号。特别是在0.5700价格水平上，该交易者与多名Top 200排名的鲸鱼表现出一致的建仓行为，且对手方为高额亏损账户，形成了典型的‘聪明钱 vs 笨钱’博弈格局。


id: 1708109_0x19c7143b3f910ba08ecc3ef136b45ee4a8aed01506193b9c0b783b04db0cc082-1008
market_id: 1708109
market_question: Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
condition_id: 0xa1d97efb8a19de58d995edf58b882c4f99ef356c8a564af8daf888a7610edea1
transaction_hash: 0x19c7143b3f910ba08ecc3ef136b45ee4a8aed01506193b9c0b783b04db0cc082-1008
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xf9d535772359fc53979a44b98bd69f5a82ebfba3
insider_evidence: 无明确内幕证据。该交易符合该玩家一贯的高风险、专项化交易风格。相对于市场共识，该交易属于对抗性押注（Contrarian bet）。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T05:45:18.757699
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:19.800199
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":25719,"pnl":3612.1024311715614,"volume":1082399.7112719999,"user_name":"SOLE214","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":115084.10198799998,"avg_trade_size":1150.8410198799997,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?","Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of th","US forces enter Iran by April 30?","Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?","Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June","Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June","Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by Ap","Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?","Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?","Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by Ma"],"large_trades_count":6,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":9134.86465,"price":0.11302511087698763,"title":"Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?","timestamp":1773645643},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":7569.6048,"price":0.36,"title":"Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?","timestamp":1773808039},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6559.139900000001,"price":0.5751048564153644,"title":"Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?","timestamp":1773808169},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":6362.020479999999,"price":0.10603367466666666,"title":"Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?","timestamp":1774267241},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":5500.0,"price":0.55,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775015695},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":5250.0,"price":0.35,"title":"Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?","timestamp":1773819995}]}

reasoning:
交易者 SOLE214 是一名深耕中东局势的专项交易者，其加仓行为反映了对美军近期军事行动的高度看好。然而，该市场的胜算点在于‘实际失去控制权’，这在地缘政治中属于极低概率事件。目前，顶级聪明钱（如排名前 100 的鲸鱼）均站在 No 方，认为占领行动不太可能在 5 月底前完成。交易者的买入更多基于公开的军事摩擦加剧，而非掌握了内幕进攻指令。


id: 1640919_0xd1c3f8527a160ab460ddaad93aba07616759abcb4208115867915b62a04bddbc-1731
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0xd1c3f8527a160ab460ddaad93aba07616759abcb4208115867915b62a04bddbc-1731
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0xa53e8fc4c2f9910e584de69d8b40a502a638218d
insider_evidence: 无。交易者近期在同事件的不同时间跨度市场持有相反头寸，这是典型的策略对冲；且其长期亏损记录排除了内幕信息持有者的可能。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T06:00:11.894780
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2489959,"pnl":-62105.547935086666,"volume":753580.9271409999,"user_name":"0xa53e8fc4c2f9910E584dE69D8B40A502A638218d-1770806601195","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":34,"total_volume":185501.15597399996,"avg_trade_size":5455.916352176469,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US forces enter Iran by December 31?","Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?","Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?","Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?","Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?","Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?"],"large_trades_count":17,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":14980.969998999999,"price":0.42321429979203007,"title":"Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?","timestamp":1772563051},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10157.689999,"price":0.20126865010838707,"title":"Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?","timestamp":1773216411},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10010.779998,"price":0.9869960438122681,"title":"Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?","timestamp":1772916285},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10000.0,"price":0.2488513494526828,"title":"Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?","timestamp":1770903521},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9999.999999,"price":0.19284197905553643,"title":"Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?","timestamp":1773087219},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9994.999999,"price":0.06999999999383692,"title":"Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?","timestamp":1770806895},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9994.61,"price":0.4,"title":"Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?","timestamp":1771937408},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9984.009999,"price":0.36999999998777044,"title":"US forces enter Iran by December 31?","timestamp":1775016297},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9983.989999000001,"price":0.4207744105579548,"title":"US forces enter Iran by December 31?","timestamp":1772916751},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9983.419999,"price":0.3886634363116937,"title":"Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?","timestamp":1771602178}]}

reasoning:
该交易者 (0xa53e...) 的 PnL 为负数且排名极低，不具备内幕人士特征。其交易逻辑高度符合‘对冲策略’：通过买入 4 月份的 No 来对冲其持有的 12 月份 Yes 仓位，试图在短期外交博弈中减少损耗。交易时机紧随特朗普‘谈判进展顺利’的公开新闻之后，属于对已公开的外交利好信号的正常反应，而非掌握非公开信息。其 0.67 的异常评分主要源于在‘看多’共识极强的市场中突然下注‘看空’，但结合其持仓结构看，这更倾向于一种复杂的风险管理操作。


id: 648383_0xd9940e630d006793d58ba77b50e89301728aaf00154fc410664cceb427058c38-1547
market_id: 648383
market_question: Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
condition_id: 0x9345d5142a67f5541264c96515496affee02580f1c572680759eac9fd2a1588a
transaction_hash: 0xd9940e630d006793d58ba77b50e89301728aaf00154fc410664cceb427058c38-1547
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0x4825c873a8c890bdaff00d253a23e8e09eb95ec5
insider_evidence: 签名收集进度与截止日期的冲突是公开可查的数学难题，买入价格 0.66 具有极高的安全边际。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T06:27:14.942689
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":5251,"pnl":21505.17560199622,"volume":1608342.5006859999,"user_name":"slamjampeter","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":234934.975036,"avg_trade_size":2349.3497503599997,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Charlie Kirk be TIME's Person of the Year for","Will ExtraEmily win Streamer of the Year at the 20","Will Zelenskyy wear a suit and tie at the World Ec","Will iShowSpeed win Streamer of the Year at the 20","Will Clavicular be Iran's next Supreme Leader by M","Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET","Will Google have the best AI model at the end of N","Will Jensen Huang be TIME's Person of the Year for","Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed c","Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET"],"large_trades_count":17,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":18771.64697,"price":0.996070032384028,"title":"Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?","timestamp":1774444685},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":10978.0,"price":0.998,"title":"US government shutdown Saturday?","timestamp":1769940186},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":10282.61237,"price":0.6048595511764706,"title":"Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?","timestamp":1773637319},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":9970.0,"price":0.997,"title":"Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?","timestamp":1774434085},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9910.0,"price":0.991,"title":"Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?","timestamp":1773119731},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8257.2,"price":0.983,"title":"Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025?","timestamp":1764598222},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":7984.0,"price":0.998,"title":"US government shutdown Saturday?","timestamp":1769938036},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7871.89192,"price":0.9949986374196419,"title":"Obama arrested in 2025?","timestamp":1765906105},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7267.5,"price":0.969,"title":"Will Charlie Kirk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?","timestamp":1765207983},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7000.0,"price":0.7,"title":"Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?","timestamp":1773550805}]}

reasoning:
交易者利用了公开的签名进度滞后（25%）和今日刚曝出的巨头注资反对的消息。这不是非法内幕，而是对‘行政截止日期’和‘反对派资金优势’的专业研判。由于签名数据有一定滞后，交易者可能掌握了比大众更早几天的进度不佳反馈。


id: 1466016_0x9ebc9e942efdb6384ac5f0ef110988dd4326a87987a75f9667c012b63f476fc0-3768
market_id: 1466016
market_question: US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
condition_id: 0x80059ff4e694f878c0498f6f3a067ee7ca62dc2fc46251a4287b58355ce47bc5
transaction_hash: 0x9ebc9e942efdb6384ac5f0ef110988dd4326a87987a75f9667c012b63f476fc0-3768
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x44c1dfe43260c94ed4f1d00de2e1f80fb113ebc1
insider_evidence: 交易者在同一事件的两个不同期限市场（4/15 和 4/30）均持有重仓 Yes，显示出极强的方向性共识。考虑到他在中东市场极高的胜率，这笔交易具有显著的‘先行者’特征。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T06:43:21.570028
market_resolved_at: 2026-04-22T08:02:23.984962
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":47,"pnl":2003414.6920691524,"volume":201063113.38898396,"user_name":"aenews2","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-154436-a84dabd0-06ee-40d3-be95-e454283cdfc0.jpg","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":714647.19489,"avg_trade_size":7146.471948900001,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on Mar","Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Isr","Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after","Will Trump say \"Nancy\" or \"Pelosi\" this week? (Mar","Will \"Hoppers\" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 1","US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the ","US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?","Will Trump say \"Ayatollah\" or \"Khamenei\" this week","BitBoy convicted?"],"large_trades_count":22,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":154803.74130000002,"price":0.999,"title":"Netanyahu out by March 31?","timestamp":1775017861},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":104974.90793,"price":0.9917544525302775,"title":"Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 18, 2026?","timestamp":1773989131},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":72062.70576,"price":0.998,"title":"Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?","timestamp":1774331183},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":45003.38924999999,"price":0.9933845406571604,"title":"Will Trump say \"Ayatollah\" or \"Khamenei\" this week? (March 15)","timestamp":1773828559},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":43294.257959999995,"price":0.998,"title":"Will Trump say \"Ayatollah\" or \"Khamenei\" this week? (March 15)","timestamp":1773848763},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":33511.793789999996,"price":0.993,"title":"Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?","timestamp":1774505045},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":26928.20566,"price":0.998,"title":"Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 18, 2026?","timestamp":1773995243},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":22126.77992,"price":0.997,"title":"Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?","timestamp":1774331147},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":17898.307,"price":0.27267735378617086,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","timestamp":1774584961},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":14054.9115,"price":0.994,"title":"Netanyahu out by March 31?","timestamp":1774777406}]}

reasoning:
该交易者是全球排名第 47 的地缘政治专家，其 PnL 证明了其对该领域消息的极强解读能力。在伊朗 IRGC 发布威胁言论导致市场恐慌时，他依然逆势加仓 4 月 15 日和 4 月 30 日的停火市场，这极大概率是基于对‘巴基斯坦调解渠道’具体进度的深入掌握或对特朗普外交风格的精准博弈。


id: 567560_0xd205f57243349950602d785e814ad146df6e25cfc244fe8f50b1d787901a0b95-962
market_id: 567560
market_question: Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
condition_id: 0x5ec80dc407457301f282a2b44341947afc700dfaa7923d14c8894e04bc63b03f
transaction_hash: 0xd205f57243349950602d785e814ad146df6e25cfc244fe8f50b1d787901a0b95-962
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0xdfe3fedc5c7679be42c3d393e99d4b55247b73c4
insider_evidence: 高排名巨鲸 0x5b90 (持有 $1.1M) 与 cqs (Rank 154) 在 24 小时内同步加仓 No，且无视近期针对反对党的负面丑闻，暗示其掌握的选举基本面数据远强于流言影响。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T07:00:09.711859
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:08.846246
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":154,"pnl":782173.6518118537,"volume":13343286.630978,"user_name":"cqs","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":450837.93528500013,"avg_trade_size":4508.379352850001,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31?","US forces enter Iran by December 31?","Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026","Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?","US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March","Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30","Will Trump cut off trade with Spain?","Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes ","ICE shooter charged by March 31?","Will Trump visit China by May 31?"],"large_trades_count":21,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":48300.79585,"price":0.966015917,"title":"Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?","timestamp":1771480392},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":42957.00284,"price":0.986,"title":"Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?","timestamp":1773877779},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":29506.39053,"price":0.9989782337624172,"title":"Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?","timestamp":1772348313},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":29195.172000000002,"price":0.6,"title":"Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?","timestamp":1771480414},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":29025.06958,"price":0.9675023193333333,"title":"Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?","timestamp":1772002198},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":27001.325220000002,"price":0.900044174,"title":"Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?","timestamp":1773542547},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":18564.56464,"price":0.9917508667673132,"title":"Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?","timestamp":1772167796},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":14805.0,"price":0.987,"title":"Netanyahu out by March 31?","timestamp":1774293547},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":12400.0,"price":0.62,"title":"Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?","timestamp":1772002234},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":9910.0,"price":0.991,"title":"Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?","timestamp":1774073343}]}

reasoning:
交易者 cqs 是排名前 200 的顶级专业人士，擅长博弈地缘政治。在选举前 11 天的敏感时刻，多名高排名鲸鱼集体涌入 No 侧。尽管公开民调已显示欧尔班落后，但 65% 的溢价反映出交易者可能掌握了欧尔班在农村地区动员乏力、或 Magyar 团队针对近期负面指控的内部防御数据。这笔交易并非盲目押注，而是对‘欧尔班神话破灭’的高度共识体现。


id: 665374_0x17bc5fab25e486a6b622c2046a04e5f560c7823f2164db84963d05b2546dbb3d-5073
market_id: 665374
market_question: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
condition_id: 0x5db999fad322cea2914535aae5517060c3f80ad6d8c0231cde2124a434d16846
transaction_hash: 0x17bc5fab25e486a6b622c2046a04e5f560c7823f2164db84963d05b2546dbb3d-5073
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0xa022ba0a68e11a78348382ff168601012d4d77f8
insider_evidence: 无。交易价格(0.4995)即为当时的市场平均价，且交易时间点与路透社公开报道存在明显的时间差，未发现 front-running 迹象。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T07:48:23.535780
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2484150,"pnl":-56648.72969382045,"volume":2838123.232048,"user_name":"yungstalin","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-6756952-77c4b700-1a4c-4d36-970a-91b881f9bb77.webp","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":627605.80042,"avg_trade_size":6276.0580042,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US forces enter Iran by March 31?","Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end","US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","US forces enter Iran by December 31?","Iran leadership change by December 31?","US forces enter Iran by April 30?","Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30","Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by Ap","Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?"],"large_trades_count":35,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":48020.0,"price":0.98,"title":"Will 'Whatever's Clever!' - Charlie Puth debut week album sales be between 25k and 30k?","timestamp":1774524651},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":44590.0,"price":0.91,"title":"Will 'Whatever's Clever!' - Charlie Puth debut week album sales be between 25k and 30k?","timestamp":1774524671},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":27260.0,"price":0.94,"title":"Nara Smith confirmed pregnant in 2026?","timestamp":1774524477},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":24717.3322,"price":0.956,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774765104},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":22149.9908,"price":0.94,"title":"Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?","timestamp":1774556677},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":20590.0,"price":0.71,"title":"Nara Smith confirmed pregnant in 2026?","timestamp":1774524491},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":20125.95,"price":0.78,"title":"US forces enter Iran by December 31?","timestamp":1774813748},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":18962.0,"price":0.998,"title":"Will 'Whatever's Clever!' - Charlie Puth debut week album sales be between 20k and 25k?","timestamp":1774523741},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":18620.0,"price":0.98,"title":"Will 'Whatever's Clever!' - Charlie Puth debut week album sales be between 15k and 20k?","timestamp":1774523919},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":17841.0,"price":0.939,"title":"Will 'Whatever's Clever!' - Charlie Puth debut week album sales be between 20k and 25k?","timestamp":1774523757}]}

reasoning:
交易发生在美国国务卿卢比奥发表'战争终点线'公开言论约8小时后，属于对公开新闻的滞后反应。交易者历史PnL大幅亏损且排名极低，显示其更像是一个大额赌徒而非内幕知情者。虽然其方向与市场顶级大户一致，但入场价格并无优势。


id: 1640919_0xca89e9cef009abfcd9b68b99c84512a64e0c508029be602dad0751f90f1ed2bc-1509
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0xca89e9cef009abfcd9b68b99c84512a64e0c508029be602dad0751f90f1ed2bc-1509
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0x40f1ca46f0fa82daa50d8a35c9c753c42c2015f9
insider_evidence: 在 4 月 1 日全国讲话前，清仓 $3万美金 Yes 头寸并立即反手买入 $1.1万 No，完美卡点政策转向窗口。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T07:50:06.125739
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":6477,"pnl":17334.108995333416,"volume":724567.3503450002,"user_name":"BS-JJTeam","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":176999.07137699978,"avg_trade_size":1769.990713769998,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?","US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?","Will Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30?","Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by Ma","Will UK strike Iran by March 31?","Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 29","Will the US next strike Iran on March 7, 2026 (ET)","Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 3,"],"large_trades_count":8,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":30520.921299999998,"price":0.5539875882936445,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775028741},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9009.0,"price":0.64,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774542935},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9008.999999,"price":0.565075073721636,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774383869},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8888.0,"price":0.7915820926594354,"title":"Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?","timestamp":1773680291},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6665.999999,"price":0.29415596900498975,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1773259123},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6665.999998,"price":0.5829179018409312,"title":"Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?","timestamp":1774466221},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6665.999998,"price":0.7299854436763056,"title":"Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?","timestamp":1773377125},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":5253.741,"price":0.999,"title":"Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?","timestamp":1774412469}]}

reasoning:
该交易者是伊朗冲突市场的核心玩家，其行为从长期看多突然转为重仓看空，时机锁定在特朗普重大全国讲话前夕。虽然讲话是公开的，但其敢于在赔率仍偏向 Yes 时大举反手，显示其对讲话内容将导致'地面行动'概率清零有极高信心。


id: 1693042_0xd55a7f8196231ccf8d3e9850417e1d27b3ad19f9d2ade6f4817ca553abcb0f73-2493
market_id: 1693042
market_question: Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x858071dbcd97be6e31f8467cba92fcb09d1d767d46da407e4434438a188b04a2
transaction_hash: 0xd55a7f8196231ccf8d3e9850417e1d27b3ad19f9d2ade6f4817ca553abcb0f73-2493
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xc210fc7bce49960564bd461587d4d651c479f0ca
detected_at: 2026-04-01T08:08:05.198077
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:06:07.474019
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2489773,"pnl":-43404.288316515696,"volume":1430197.6885170003,"user_name":"0xc210fc7bce49960564bd461587d4d651c479f0ca","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":155505.413743,"avg_trade_size":1555.05413743,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Pacers vs. Pistons","Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?","Warriors vs. Spurs","Celtics vs. Magic","Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 202","Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025?","Will Zama launch a token in 2025?","No change in Fed interest rates after December 202","Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democra","Warriors vs. Magic"],"large_trades_count":2,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5599.999997,"price":0.769999999982125,"title":"Lakers vs. Hornets","timestamp":1762798170},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5189.999999,"price":0.4899999999839499,"title":"Jaguars vs. Texans","timestamp":1762692945}]}

reasoning:
该交易发生在 2026 年 4 月 1 日，正值伊朗对阿联酋发动大规模导弹和无人机袭击（导致迪拜机场和美军基地受损）的公开冲突爆发期间。虽然社交媒体（如 Twitter 上的 ShaykhSulaiman 等账号）已流传‘阿联酋空袭伊朗淡化厂’的传闻，但官方媒体和阿联酋外交部目前仅表示‘保留回应权利’，尚未证实对伊朗本土的打击。交易者（0xc210...）的历史画像显示其为一个典型的、处于亏损状态的高额体育博彩者（PnL 约 -4.3 万美元，主要参与 NBA/NFL 市场），其行为模式更像是对突发地缘政治新闻的投机性押注（基于传闻博取 5.7 倍赔率），而非掌握非公开信息的内幕人士。此外，市场中排名前列的‘聪明钱’（如排名 #2831 和 #3877 的交易者）均集中在 No 方，显示专业预测者并不认为阿联酋会立即对伊朗本土发动符合市场定义的‘主权打击’。

insider_evidence:
1. 交易方向与当时社交媒体上未证实的阿联酋反击传闻一致。2. 交易者缺乏相关领域的成功记录，排名极低且处于大幅亏损状态，不具备情报获取特征。3. 公开新闻已充分报道了冲突升级，交易者的行为可以由公开的‘新闻驱动型博彩’完全解释。


id: 1640919_0x8faac629c6ef646d6adc2263835a404ee69fa04023b01b3c94d3ca7631dde44f-1188
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0x8faac629c6ef646d6adc2263835a404ee69fa04023b01b3c94d3ca7631dde44f-1188
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xa022ba0a68e11a78348382ff168601012d4d77f8
insider_evidence: 无直接证据表明该交易者拥有内幕。其行为更多反映了对美伊冲突升级的坚定看涨立场，而非对特定军事行动时间的精确掌握。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T08:23:53.078536
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2484150,"pnl":-56648.72969382045,"volume":2838123.232048,"user_name":"yungstalin","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-6756952-77c4b700-1a4c-4d36-970a-91b881f9bb77.webp","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":628452.9544200001,"avg_trade_size":6284.529544200001,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US forces enter Iran by March 31?","Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?","Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end","US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","US forces enter Iran by December 31?","Iran leadership change by December 31?","US forces enter Iran by April 30?","Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30","Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by Ap"],"large_trades_count":35,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":48020.0,"price":0.98,"title":"Will 'Whatever's Clever!' - Charlie Puth debut week album sales be between 25k and 30k?","timestamp":1774524651},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":44590.0,"price":0.91,"title":"Will 'Whatever's Clever!' - Charlie Puth debut week album sales be between 25k and 30k?","timestamp":1774524671},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":27260.0,"price":0.94,"title":"Nara Smith confirmed pregnant in 2026?","timestamp":1774524477},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":24717.3322,"price":0.956,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774765104},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":22149.9908,"price":0.94,"title":"Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?","timestamp":1774556677},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":20590.0,"price":0.71,"title":"Nara Smith confirmed pregnant in 2026?","timestamp":1774524491},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":20125.95,"price":0.78,"title":"US forces enter Iran by December 31?","timestamp":1774813748},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":18962.0,"price":0.998,"title":"Will 'Whatever's Clever!' - Charlie Puth debut week album sales be between 20k and 25k?","timestamp":1774523741},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":18620.0,"price":0.98,"title":"Will 'Whatever's Clever!' - Charlie Puth debut week album sales be between 15k and 20k?","timestamp":1774523919},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":17841.0,"price":0.939,"title":"Will 'Whatever's Clever!' - Charlie Puth debut week album sales be between 20k and 25k?","timestamp":1774523757}]}

reasoning:
交易者 yungstalin 虽然投入金额较大且专注于该领域，但其历史盈亏记录极差，且有明显的‘报复性交易’迹象（在3月同类市场失败后立即转战4月市场）。其买入方向虽与市场部分顶级鲸鱼（如 Rank #60）一致，但其交易时机并未体现出超越公开新闻（如哈尔克岛准备行动的传闻）的精准度。


id: 1394299_0x8543442a77b8a2703c3d292814095deb8758848cdf1141247a0f6b133fe75b52-1629
market_id: 1394299
market_question: US forces enter Iran by December 31?
condition_id: 0xe4b9a52d2bb336ff9d84799b70e72e8e5f4507df881af60f3f4daeb9f541a80e
transaction_hash: 0x8543442a77b8a2703c3d292814095deb8758848cdf1141247a0f6b133fe75b52-1629
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x8c80d213c0cbad777d06ee3f58f6ca4bc03102c3
insider_evidence: 该交易者在该事件下的持仓已接近 50 万美元，且交易时机精准卡在总统重大军事演讲之前，存在明显的政策解读领先优势。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T08:46:17.726714
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":60,"pnl":1576373.689464585,"volume":12004751.206878,"user_name":"SecondWindCapital","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":1816485.4899700007,"avg_trade_size":18164.854899700007,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","Miami Open: Alexander Zverev vs Jannik Sinner","US forces enter Iran by December 31?","Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after","US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?","Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open?","Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djo","US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?","Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-2.5) vs Djokovic (+2.5)","US forces enter Iran by April 30?"],"large_trades_count":51,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":259634.1168,"price":0.36,"title":"UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)","timestamp":1772932847},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":209444.5313,"price":0.7388113849415409,"title":"US forces enter Iran by December 31?","timestamp":1774940927},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":173589.093,"price":0.619493925883672,"title":"US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?","timestamp":1771876510},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":76796.2448,"price":0.88,"title":"Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?","timestamp":1774862870},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":74000.0,"price":0.74,"title":"Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic","timestamp":1769930802},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":70892.76199999999,"price":0.58,"title":"US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?","timestamp":1771784284},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":54972.35850000001,"price":0.7259734619683219,"title":"US forces enter Iran by December 31?","timestamp":1774768624},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":50089.5126,"price":0.32997293853016674,"title":"Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev","timestamp":1769761884},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":49972.92109999999,"price":0.6381659834377704,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774773824},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":44049.2841,"price":0.6197373748089053,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774596941}]}

reasoning:
交易者 SecondWindCapital 排名第 60，PnL 超 150 万美元，是伊朗局势市场的顶级玩家。在特朗普即将发表黄金时段讲话前 8 小时，该交易者逆转了昨日其他高排名交易者的‘看空’趋势，在高位（0.63）大额补仓 Yes，显示出极强的方向信心。考虑到该交易者曾有精准预测空袭的传闻，其对‘进入伊朗’的定义（特种部队计入）可能掌握了比普通散户更敏锐的情报或政策解读。


id: 1466016_0xd7e43f3b9eb408e4c3bc0b4403744881ed7aa16de8cc1ae16da50fcad2ae87b4-1561
market_id: 1466016
market_question: US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
condition_id: 0x80059ff4e694f878c0498f6f3a067ee7ca62dc2fc46251a4287b58355ce47bc5
transaction_hash: 0xd7e43f3b9eb408e4c3bc0b4403744881ed7aa16de8cc1ae16da50fcad2ae87b4-1561
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xcf6087abd66e16b59a122d45bfcdc05d4b7247ce
insider_evidence: 1. 特朗普预定于今晚 9:00 PM ET 发表全国讲话；2. 以色列军方此前透露 4月1日（逾越节）是停火目标点；3. 全站排名第 47 的顶级交易者在数小时前已先行建仓 Yes。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T09:03:41.812669
market_resolved_at: 2026-04-22T08:02:23.984962
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2487061,"pnl":-21757.349499999993,"volume":155853.01,"user_name":"steeplejack","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":6,"total_volume":85488.70019999999,"avg_trade_size":14248.116699999999,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Devils vs. Rangers","Hurricanes vs. Blue Jackets","Jets vs. Blackhawks","Senators vs. Panthers","US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?"],"large_trades_count":5,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":30870.0,"price":0.63,"title":"Senators vs. Panthers","timestamp":1774990975},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":16239.999999999998,"price":0.58,"title":"Jets vs. Blackhawks","timestamp":1774991429},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":15660.000000000002,"price":0.54,"title":"Devils vs. Rangers","timestamp":1774991017},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":15400.000000000002,"price":0.55,"title":"Hurricanes vs. Blue Jackets","timestamp":1774991507},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6688.7002,"price":0.14,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","timestamp":1775033941}]}

reasoning:
交易者本人虽 PnL 为负，但其交易时机精准卡在总统全国讲话前 8 小时。更重要的是，该信号与排名 #47 的顶级‘聪明钱’在同一价位段高度重合。目前公开新闻充斥着战争升级的烟雾弹，而大额资金却在逾越节（4月1日）这个特殊的宗教/军事节点密集押注停火，暗示内圈已流传出今晚讲话的利好定稿内容。


id: 1640919_0xa406d2225df891f5bee0d155586fc73e19c7cfe289a80f6367b7ded91e8b1c13-1429
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0xa406d2225df891f5bee0d155586fc73e19c7cfe289a80f6367b7ded91e8b1c13-1429
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x2e16e96d0c7e773d2753273593b4971155969719
insider_evidence: 无。交易时机位于市场共识价格下滑期，且交易者缺乏盈利历史证明其拥有非公开信息源。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T09:26:42.057121
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2487442,"pnl":-22270.972204726248,"volume":726343.3776480001,"user_name":"pepegaxbt","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":118256.16988904984,"avg_trade_size":1182.5616988904983,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Ukraine vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5","Solana Up or Down - February 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET","Athletic Club vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 3.5","Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6PM ET","Will Kosovo win on 2026-03-26?","Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 7PM ET","Solana Up or Down - February 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET","Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-03-22?","Bitcoin Up or Down on March 24?","Jazz vs. Suns: O/U 233.5"],"large_trades_count":5,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":24989.999998,"price":0.709954544725036,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774822572},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":7241.83092,"price":0.999,"title":"Nuggets vs. Suns","timestamp":1774417439},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":6093.14076,"price":0.999,"title":"Blue Jackets vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5","timestamp":1774575371},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":5113.7559,"price":0.99,"title":"Athletic Club vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 3.5","timestamp":1774207703},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5001.869998,"price":0.6899999999641334,"title":"Nuggets vs. Suns","timestamp":1774382931}]}

reasoning:
该交易者历史亏损严重（-$2.2k），且本次买入属于在价格下跌过程中的‘补仓’操作（此前曾在0.71高价买入）。其资金来源为体育市场结算，显示其为高风险博弈风格。虽然市场整体受聪明钱驱动，但这笔具体交易更符合散户跟随和亏损摊平的行为特征。


id: 567560_0x723a9665bcf926e561309d12450da8aa28905dd5fcccb824e9799379932d9d83-2496
market_id: 567560
market_question: Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
condition_id: 0x5ec80dc407457301f282a2b44341947afc700dfaa7923d14c8894e04bc63b03f
transaction_hash: 0x723a9665bcf926e561309d12450da8aa28905dd5fcccb824e9799379932d9d83-2496
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1
detected_at: 2026-04-01T09:45:02.027443
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:08.846246
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":74,"pnl":1352613.9644019713,"volume":408214681.80157304,"user_name":"debased","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/trump_farmer_b64c6dcd-13e2-4dda-b1c2-0fb46389fb22_1743074825403.png","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":200281.3184700001,"avg_trade_size":2002.8131847000009,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?","US forces enter Iran by December 31?","Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?","Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by Ma","Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?","Netanyahu out by June 30?","US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","US forces enter Iran by March 31?","US forces enter Iran by April 30?"],"large_trades_count":8,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":53106.2247,"price":0.998,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1774883259},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":35247.8215,"price":0.95,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?","timestamp":1774994915},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":11044.334,"price":0.994,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1774807762},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9770.0,"price":0.977,"title":"Netanyahu out by April 30?","timestamp":1775011705},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7930.273,"price":0.65,"title":"Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?","timestamp":1775036467},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6700.0,"price":0.67,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?","timestamp":1774976049},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6402.088000000001,"price":0.88,"title":"Netanyahu out by June 30?","timestamp":1774878123},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5594.8727,"price":0.97,"title":"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?","timestamp":1774882069}]}

reasoning:
该交易者 'debased' 排名第 74，历史盈亏超过 135 万美元，属于顶级精英鲸鱼。其交易方向为看空欧尔班（No），与该市场近期聚集的‘聪明钱’流向高度一致。虽然欧尔班民调落后是公开信息，但在距离选举仅 11 天时，多个排名前 200 的顶级交易者（Rank 74, 154, 203, 451）以及一位持有 119 万美元 No 的巨鲸集体押注这位执政 16 年的‘强人’倒台，这种反常的共识强度表明他们对民调的真实性或某些尚未完全发酵的内部丑闻/数据具有极高的信心。

insider_evidence:
1. 高排名集群：24 小时内，Rank 74 和 Rank 154 连续在 0.65 赔率买入 No，这种在高确定性价位的接力买入是典型的信心表现。2. 市场深度不对称：看空方（No）几乎被顶级玩家和巨鲸统治，而看多方（Yes）多为排名靠后或 PnL 为负的玩家。3. 时机：交易发生在 4 月 1 日，此时正是匈牙利选前冲刺期，社交媒体（Twitter/Panyi Szabolcs）暗示欧尔班近期举动导致其胜率骤降，鲸鱼反应极其迅速。


id: 1640919_0x94d596e7c5f38571524170b2d633653169b1e9624147e18ed6a9692a9e1224c5-1701
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0x94d596e7c5f38571524170b2d633653169b1e9624147e18ed6a9692a9e1224c5-1701
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xe4916b07930c0b7458bb86174eb342778753ccd1
insider_evidence: 缺乏直接内幕证据。该交易者的历史盈亏表现不稳定，且交易时机并非发生在重大未公开公告前，而是发生在价格下行波动期间的抄底行为。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T09:53:39.678673
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":28798,"pnl":3143.114552039378,"volume":534746.172031,"user_name":"smartmedia","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":65197.477503282396,"avg_trade_size":651.9747750328239,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET","Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner","Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wal","Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner","Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner","Will F1 win Best Sound at the 98th Academy Awards?","Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wa","Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5PM ET","Solana Up or Down - March 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET","Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on Marc"],"large_trades_count":4,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":10451.619200000001,"price":0.88,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774735562},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7277.64435,"price":0.955,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774892691},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5951.02716,"price":0.949,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774893675},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5236.84,"price":0.8,"title":"Will F1 win Best Sound at the 98th Academy Awards?","timestamp":1773611073}]}

reasoning:
交易者在上一场相似的市场博弈中判断失误（高买低卖），证明其并非掌握核心指令的内部人士。当前的买入更像是基于公开的五角大楼准备信息，在价格回落后进行的重新押注，旨在跟随顶级聪明钱（Top 100 交易者）的共识方向。


id: 1517835_0xe688c3d5ec0f8f67446941baef6e2dfa4d9c64cc0e91415307b3e022abcc982a-1805
market_id: 1517835
market_question: Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
condition_id: 0xfa59099fbda1e0f0058ed3cbd57e939fe90ab6d9b57d53bd488bcadf75c191d4
transaction_hash: 0xe688c3d5ec0f8f67446941baef6e2dfa4d9c64cc0e91415307b3e022abcc982a-1805
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35
reasoning: 交易者利用了已公开但未被完全定价的突发新闻（总统黄金时段讲话及2-3周结束行动的口风）。0.55的买入价说明市场仍有45%的不确定性，而顶级交易者通过重仓表现出对特朗普讲话内容的极高确定性预测。
insider_evidence: 交易发生在白宫宣布黄金时段讲话之后、讲话开始之前。虽然不是传统意义上的秘密内幕，但反映了顶级交易者对白宫政治辞令的超前解读能力。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T10:11:00.488486
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:06:04.812226
resolved_outcome: No
trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":373647.8807300001,"avg_trade_size":3736.478807300001,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US forces enter Iran by December 31?","Will Trump say \"Third term\" in March?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?","Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?","Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by Ma","Will a Gulf State carry out military action agains","Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April","US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","US forces enter Iran by March 31?"],"large_trades_count":19,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":93000.0,"price":0.93,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?","timestamp":1775037227},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":83000.0,"price":0.83,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","timestamp":1775037241},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":18989.0022,"price":0.42,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774969931},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":11239.2429,"price":0.57,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775007551},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10039.56,"price":0.3,"title":"US forces enter Iran by December 31?","timestamp":1774969845},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9484.98202,"price":0.998,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","timestamp":1774994161},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9073.1004,"price":0.84,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1774966829},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8869.83904,"price":0.992,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774991439},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8816.8859,"price":0.9919988636363636,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774993695},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8606.7528,"price":0.94,"title":"Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?","timestamp":1775023691}]}


id: 567561_0xbed5f92d5e5649455f6ec83bf3cbd11fe6f8ee61c4132ffc444b11af013a7c79-3526
market_id: 567561
market_question: Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
condition_id: 0x1480b819d03d4b6388d70e848b0384adf38c38d955cb783cdbcf6d4a436dee14
transaction_hash: 0xbed5f92d5e5649455f6ec83bf3cbd11fe6f8ee61c4132ffc444b11af013a7c79-3526
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x81e0595440b89dd65b1cedf081a5024ebef7aff6
insider_evidence: 该市场近期出现 5 笔一致性看多的鲸鱼信号；Medián 最新民调显示 Magyar 的领先优势正在扩大到 23% 的突破性水平，而多方鲸鱼正试图在这一关键点位突破空方的资金防御墙。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T10:41:00.476078
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:09.723264
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":6507,"pnl":17259.768553631307,"volume":184757.657514,"user_name":"Redlu","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":47,"total_volume":155697.67933799993,"avg_trade_size":3312.716581659573,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31?","EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Uk","Trump out as President before 2027?","Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January ","Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by Decemb","Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?","Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?","Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the","Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by March 31, 20","Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?"],"large_trades_count":11,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":17672.55645,"price":0.965,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?","timestamp":1769375208},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":11296.870200000001,"price":0.77,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?","timestamp":1768411412},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":11133.03,"price":0.93,"title":"Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?","timestamp":1769375584},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10846.400000000001,"price":0.8,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?","timestamp":1768318317},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9974.0997,"price":0.9499142571428572,"title":"Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?","timestamp":1762371077},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9639.9996,"price":0.84,"title":"Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?","timestamp":1771611922},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9371.339998,"price":0.9659783535801211,"title":"Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?","timestamp":1772475139},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8812.5187,"price":0.6778860538461539,"title":"Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?","timestamp":1768411266},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8567.8976,"price":0.74,"title":"Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31?","timestamp":1769375432},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":5422.2881099999995,"price":0.967,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?","timestamp":1769375142}]}

reasoning:
交易者 Redlu 加入了一个明显的聪明钱买入序列。虽然核心民调数据已公开，但在 24 小时内密集出现的 $5w+ 累计买入量（且对手方是一个 $660k 的巨鲸）暗示多方群体可能掌握了更有力的实地动员数据或最新的选情反弹信号。这是一场典型的‘数据派’与‘体制派’的资金对决。


id: 1383662_0xb5713ed516eca0c72686ad0d61004820534a56897e9c80d2f0c0c2dfc8b95a8d-1595
market_id: 1383662
market_question: Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026?
condition_id: 0xe9f40f7319cd35af656935a9c812f4cb447d373cd399b6101ebb004e27a0b69a
transaction_hash: 0xb5713ed516eca0c72686ad0d61004820534a56897e9c80d2f0c0c2dfc8b95a8d-1595
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xeb6789ca6b1425ff908a69a2a5469c38532cd696
detected_at: 2026-04-01T10:48:52.661404
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":14189,"pnl":7328.684804668336,"volume":667000.9019099999,"user_name":"ExitLiquidty","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":46225.229879479986,"avg_trade_size":462.25229879479986,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31?","Mezo FDV above $50M one day after launch?","Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sal","Based FDV above $75M one day after launch?","MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after laun","P2P FDV above $5M one day after launch?","Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026?","Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?","P2P FDV above $10M one day after launch?","Over $60M committed to the P2P Protocol public sal"],"large_trades_count":0,"recent_trades":[]}

reasoning:
交易者 ExitLiquidty 是 L2 赛道专家，历史盈利稳健且交易行为极具针对性。其在今日（4月1日 rumored TGE day）以 3 倍于平时的头寸加仓 Yes，显然是在博弈代币正式上市的确定性。由于市场赔率（63%）仍未完全反映发币必然性，该交易者具有明显的信息领先优势。

insider_evidence:
1. 交易时间精准踩在推特流传的 4 月 1 日 TGE 传闻点；2. 交易者在 MegaETH 相关的多个 FDV 市场同时持仓，显示其对发币具体进度的深入研究；3. 该交易规模显著超出其日常平均水平，属于高信心押注。


id: 1662802_0x66c3e3c7f38629c54215a58d4c85cd13efe65bd0b1dce9659d78e5c2e1f9bfcb-1046
market_id: 1662802
market_question: Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
condition_id: 0x68beecc857017df8663fa36c0c86310dec7305aa88fe830c94651391314afc1c
transaction_hash: 0x66c3e3c7f38629c54215a58d4c85cd13efe65bd0b1dce9659d78e5c2e1f9bfcb-1046
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x1cc16713196d456f86fa9c7387dd326a7f73b8df
insider_evidence: 1. 时间窗口精准闭合（讲话前夕）；2. 多个高排名专业户同步反转头寸；3. 市场赔率与近期官方'2-3周结束'的暗示存在明显脱节（Alpha 空间大）。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T10:54:37.149663
market_resolved_at: 2026-04-22T08:02:34.658658
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":766,"pnl":170533.12120973688,"volume":14033677.182191,"user_name":"Wickier","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-609636-9487ff88-f320-449f-8a82-11cf53836031.webp","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":752218.4389000001,"avg_trade_size":7522.184389000001,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?","Canada election called by midnight?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?","Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by Ma","Will \"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie\" Opening Weeken","US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?","Will 'Superman' have the best domestic opening wee","US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?"],"large_trades_count":30,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":94000.0,"price":0.94,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?","timestamp":1774877501},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":50181.83617,"price":0.8363343856850392,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1772548049},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":45865.802990000004,"price":0.9979610964085561,"title":"Starmer out by February 28, 2026?","timestamp":1772301413},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":42579.28279,"price":0.7096547131666666,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1772359171},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":40866.856,"price":0.8,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","timestamp":1771920656},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":38200.2306,"price":0.14,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","timestamp":1772130974},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":33876.414800000006,"price":0.92,"title":"Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?","timestamp":1774556313},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":30998.964200000002,"price":0.9199674083236684,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?","timestamp":1770657229},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":26430.045099999996,"price":0.3303755224530597,"title":"Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?","timestamp":1772742573},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":24950.0,"price":0.998,"title":"Starmer out by February 28, 2026?","timestamp":1772319005}]}

reasoning:
交易者在总统全国讲话前 6 小时精准切入，且价格处于 0.22 的低位（市场极度分歧时）。结合该交易者在伊朗局势市场的极高活跃度和盈利能力，其对总统讲话稿内容的预判远超普通大众。此外，该动作与另一位 Top 1000 交易者的动作步调一致。


id: 567561_0xb3dedf0de6ca5379a383e0a5d42d54e756334bbf64f9939a54b05ebccbdd58d6-2928
market_id: 567561
market_question: Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
condition_id: 0x1480b819d03d4b6388d70e848b0384adf38c38d955cb783cdbcf6d4a436dee14
transaction_hash: 0xb3dedf0de6ca5379a383e0a5d42d54e756334bbf64f9939a54b05ebccbdd58d6-2928
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x6a94eab00c14921c994960f067a70fba7e41730f
insider_evidence: 民调数据显示 Magyar 具有 10% 以上的稳固领先优势；当日内出现密集的买入信号（历史信号 1 & 当前交易），疑似在抢跑最新的内部滚动民调（Tracking Poll）结果。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T10:56:10.993069
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:09.723264
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":32440,"pnl":2720.409268253156,"volume":133022.79320699998,"user_name":"Reimbroq","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":31,"total_volume":119929.12815300001,"avg_trade_size":3868.681553322581,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31?","Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January ","Will the Government shutdown end by December 31?","Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by Decemb","Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by January 31?","Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?","Will Bianca Censori be the #1 searched person on G","Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?","Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?"],"large_trades_count":11,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":16873.5387,"price":0.93,"title":"Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?","timestamp":1770736725},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":12915.705199999999,"price":0.943,"title":"Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?","timestamp":1762183099},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9500.0,"price":0.95,"title":"Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?","timestamp":1762371895},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7820.0,"price":0.8,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?","timestamp":1768319345},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7644.55401,"price":0.9908163026981067,"title":"Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by January 31?","timestamp":1768251671},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7058.088000000001,"price":0.8,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","timestamp":1772238655},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":7058.084849999999,"price":0.999,"title":"Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?","timestamp":1772238627},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6985.479998,"price":0.8393804271052872,"title":"Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?","timestamp":1771612390},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6673.0,"price":0.8897333333333334,"title":"Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?","timestamp":1763907045},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6533.1257,"price":0.9477707144048803,"title":"Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?","timestamp":1770736641}]}

reasoning:
交易者虽排名中等，但此次投入了其近期最大规模资金。交易时间与另一笔大单及关键民调窗口期高度吻合。多方阵营由顶级高盈亏交易者（#203）领衔，而空方阵营由历史巨亏者组成，形成了鲜明的‘专业 vs 散户’对抗。


id: 567560_0x3d6a7d8968b42403f5d0efa37019d415e11d6cd96ebaa505a107d8a2417d1a36-1533
market_id: 567560
market_question: Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
condition_id: 0x5ec80dc407457301f282a2b44341947afc700dfaa7923d14c8894e04bc63b03f
transaction_hash: 0x3d6a7d8968b42403f5d0efa37019d415e11d6cd96ebaa505a107d8a2417d1a36-1533
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1
insider_evidence: 交易者在 2 小时内连续加仓，且紧跟排名第 154 的鲸鱼入场，形成明显的精英共识。其近期在伊朗市场的成功操作验证了其在处理独裁/半独裁政权选举/变动市场时拥有优于常人的分析模型。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T10:59:01.218687
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:08.846246
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":74,"pnl":1352613.9644019713,"volume":408214681.80157304,"user_name":"debased","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/trump_farmer_b64c6dcd-13e2-4dda-b1c2-0fb46389fb22_1743074825403.png","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":198746.4422000001,"avg_trade_size":1987.4644220000012,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?","US forces enter Iran by December 31?","Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?","Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by Ma","Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?","Netanyahu out by June 30?","US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","US forces enter Iran by March 31?","US forces enter Iran by April 30?"],"large_trades_count":8,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":53106.2247,"price":0.998,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1774883259},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":35247.8215,"price":0.95,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?","timestamp":1774994915},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9770.0,"price":0.977,"title":"Netanyahu out by April 30?","timestamp":1775011705},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9380.0,"price":0.67,"title":"Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?","timestamp":1775040879},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7930.273,"price":0.65,"title":"Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?","timestamp":1775036467},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6700.0,"price":0.67,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?","timestamp":1774976049},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6402.088000000001,"price":0.88,"title":"Netanyahu out by June 30?","timestamp":1774878123},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5594.8727,"price":0.97,"title":"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?","timestamp":1774882069}]}

reasoning:
该交易者是平台顶尖的政治博弈专家，擅长处理复杂的地缘政治信息。其交易时机精准捕捉了今日爆发的‘选民恐吓’丑闻和大规模抗议，属于典型的‘快速反应型’专业投资。0.48 的分值反映出其具备极强的信息处理速度和政治研判专长，但并非基于非公开的选举结果内幕。


id: 1466016_0xe8fa586f5d0bd4584ef9edbccc84dda64274c7e7eea8467edca8a267a8d66c36-1477
market_id: 1466016
market_question: US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
condition_id: 0x80059ff4e694f878c0498f6f3a067ee7ca62dc2fc46251a4287b58355ce47bc5
transaction_hash: 0xe8fa586f5d0bd4584ef9edbccc84dda64274c7e7eea8467edca8a267a8d66c36-1477
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x826eb21def9a561f5495e874bd502cb880e9b6b5
insider_evidence: 与 Top 50 交易者同日同向操作，且针对 15 点停火计划和美军推迟打击的时间窗口进行精确押注。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T11:01:17.947114
market_resolved_at: 2026-04-22T08:02:23.984962
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2314742,"pnl":-496.499475966875,"volume":5059.867271,"user_name":"AndyY","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":6,"total_volume":67303.48999500001,"avg_trade_size":11217.248332500001,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?","US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","Will $BTC hit $50k or $70k first?"],"large_trades_count":5,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":19999.999999000003,"price":0.17691326511075967,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","timestamp":1775040863},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":19999.999999,"price":0.39967077722827377,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","timestamp":1775041025},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10806.989999,"price":0.36395428168638744,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","timestamp":1775040919},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9999.999999000001,"price":0.3811046180393598,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","timestamp":1775040943},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6000.0,"price":0.07269869883414459,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?","timestamp":1775041057}]}

reasoning:
交易者虽为新账户，但其交易时机与顶级排名（#47）交易者高度同步。在公开新闻呈现‘伊朗拒绝停火’的表象下，交易者通过多个时间节点的关联市场（4/7, 4/15, 4/30）持续加仓 Yes，这表明其认为市场低估了停火计划成功的可能性。其信息优势可能来源于对美伊非正式渠道谈判进展的精准捕捉。


id: 1640919_0x0514d0b8cf06838d5f03485075c2de2730771dc0fc88b04c05542cb14a2372d2-2382
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0x0514d0b8cf06838d5f03485075c2de2730771dc0fc88b04c05542cb14a2372d2-2382
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0x78ad03d27582cd1b5255d364ff8f093b6cf745cc
insider_evidence: 交易时机与主流媒体（AP, NYT）报道的‘特朗普称伊朗战争即将结束’的公开消息同步，属于对政治辞令的公开博弈，而非信息差优势。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T11:09:58.970438
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2491703,"pnl":-93230.336008379,"volume":18148882.625113003,"user_name":"XVFlow","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":1427471.7429984044,"avg_trade_size":14274.717429984044,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Pierre Gasly win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand P","Will Romania win on 2026-03-26?","Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on Marc","Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?","Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $","Will Oliver Bearman win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand","Spread: Clippers (-6.5)","Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand P","Spread: Clippers (-4.5)","Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on Marc"],"large_trades_count":69,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":104015.34339714,"price":0.999,"title":"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 1?","timestamp":1775012673},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":64870.8979662,"price":0.999,"title":"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27?","timestamp":1774536911},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":61151.56195527,"price":0.999,"title":"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 27?","timestamp":1774536555},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":57569.10889437,"price":0.999,"title":"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 30?","timestamp":1774792598},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":57049.28934426,"price":0.999,"title":"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 1?","timestamp":1774949889},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":54939.99128373,"price":0.999,"title":"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 31?","timestamp":1774948867},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":54939.98502,"price":0.999,"title":"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 31?","timestamp":1774949595},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":51224.83389,"price":0.999,"title":"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 27?","timestamp":1774537013},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":50310.60647256,"price":0.999,"title":"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 31?","timestamp":1774883937},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":49503.414672360006,"price":0.999,"title":"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 29?","timestamp":1774797094}]}

reasoning:
该交易者 (XVFlow) 表现出明显的“大户但非专家”特征：总盈亏高达 -$93k，排名极低，且近期主要在比特币价格市场进行高价 (0.999) 押注。这笔 $14.7k 的 No 押注更像是对特朗普总统 4 月 1 日表态（‘伊朗战事将在 2-3 周内结束’）的公开信息反应。虽然该交易与历史看多趋势相反，但更符合当日市场情绪的最新波动（特朗普释放撤军/收尾信号），而非掌握了未公开的内幕。且该交易者的历史记录显示其更倾向于简单的趋势跟踪或对冲。


id: 1450163_0x1eb912face0e96ded6fac8fddfaf4e3275755aafdea5cc64e8fbf84f710b9176-2585
market_id: 1450163
market_question: Will Trump say "Third term" in March?
condition_id: 0xd50c434c6dad84b1a031daeb257303530cde59ae6c4414cfada1d3869c760162
transaction_hash: 0x1eb912face0e96ded6fac8fddfaf4e3275755aafdea5cc64e8fbf84f710b9176-2585
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xdc63e4b39e226ceaaae41e02069354042a0d427a
insider_evidence: CNN 2026年3月24日报道证实该地址在涉及国家安全的预测中具有内幕级胜率；本次交易价格与市场赔率存在巨大背离，且时机处于争议提议期。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T11:17:26.678100
market_resolved_at: 2026-04-22T08:02:42.303142
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":87858,"pnl":573.4346158799999,"volume":180623.59772400002,"user_name":"halllllie","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":49,"total_volume":54123.08210900001,"avg_trade_size":1104.552696102041,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["U.S. strike on Somalia by March 7?","Will Trump say \"Bibi\" or \"Netanyahu\" during Monday","Will Clayton Fuller win the GA-14 special election","Will Trump say \"Third term\" in March?","Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?","Netanyahu out by March 31?","Will Trump say \"President Xi\" during Miami address","Will another country strike Iran by March 31?","Will Trump say \"Sleepy Joe\" during Miami address?","Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on "],"large_trades_count":5,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":7734.705389999999,"price":0.993,"title":"Netanyahu out by March 31?","timestamp":1774505415},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7571.13156,"price":0.972,"title":"Netanyahu out by March 31?","timestamp":1773882639},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7192.15588,"price":0.988,"title":"Will Powell say \"Good Afternoon\" during March press conference?","timestamp":1773825907},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6726.64377,"price":0.96585565673622,"title":"Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?","timestamp":1773390101},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5735.4934,"price":0.8960280392812395,"title":"Will another country strike Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774513187}]}

reasoning:
该交易者 (0xdc63...) 已被证实具有极高的政治/军事预测准确性。在市场争议期以 4.8 倍溢价逆势买入 Yes，表明其对 3 月份特朗普发言的证据掌握程度远超市场共识，极可能在利用规则中的 'Regardless of context' 条款进行降维打击。


id: 1640919_0xd84d2c35f108f4dd882757bfc174e3e94066557a741995b5156d2deb9f94c584-1141
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0xd84d2c35f108f4dd882757bfc174e3e94066557a741995b5156d2deb9f94c584-1141
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0xa3ff29e34b23b468b4ff5dbba28ad9e56bcd540e
insider_evidence: 交易时间距离特朗普 4月1日 9 PM 讲话极近；交易方向与今日早些时候的主流买盘（Yes）相反；交易者清空了其他不相关头寸（Aliens）集中火力押注此单一结果。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T12:27:53.538662
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":3398,"pnl":35305.91072159982,"volume":1416497.074747,"user_name":"0xa3FF29e34b23B468b4FF5dBBA28Ad9e56bCd540E-1772658943842","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":31,"total_volume":1166817.482292,"avg_trade_size":37639.27362232258,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US forces enter Iran by March 31?","Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?","Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?","Trump out as President before 2027?","Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?","NATO x Russia military clash by March 31, 2026?","NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?","Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?","Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?"],"large_trades_count":25,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":201812.427132,"price":0.8300012376641157,"title":"Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?","timestamp":1773152243},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":201812.129998,"price":0.8299999999962574,"title":"Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?","timestamp":1772815861},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":99999.999998,"price":0.8399986366576847,"title":"Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?","timestamp":1773167909},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":99999.999997,"price":0.9179710580149003,"title":"NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?","timestamp":1773152305},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":73599.97,"price":0.7102907614054672,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1773591515},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":58448.8446,"price":0.8712231409787644,"title":"Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?","timestamp":1772817021},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":57978.059988999994,"price":0.9371051972528661,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 14?","timestamp":1773167971},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":50595.319599,"price":0.944683807000721,"title":"Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?","timestamp":1773524765},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":50595.315,"price":0.85,"title":"Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?","timestamp":1773524717},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":41037.2954,"price":0.9887261264968599,"title":"Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?","timestamp":1772817021}]}

reasoning:
交易者在总统重大全国讲话前4.5小时精准买入 No。虽然并非顶级排名，但其交易记录显示其极度关注伊朗局势。近期市场主流共识（及巨鲸持仓）偏向 Yes，但该交易者逆势买入 No，且伴随今日下午多笔相似方向的大额交易，暗示有关‘讲话将宣布减压或结束行动’的草稿信息可能已在特定圈子流传，或交易者对最新流出的‘撤军’传闻有极高信心。


id: 1466016_0xc2dc877e3b45456b0807eeeb6c855133cc8712c3e7a2abbd5b8cebd270ee4caa-1440
market_id: 1466016
market_question: US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
condition_id: 0x80059ff4e694f878c0498f6f3a067ee7ca62dc2fc46251a4287b58355ce47bc5
transaction_hash: 0xc2dc877e3b45456b0807eeeb6c855133cc8712c3e7a2abbd5b8cebd270ee4caa-1440
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x35bbbad2415fe5e39b12da9a316cdc80b022009b
insider_evidence: 多个高排名鲸鱼在 4 小时内密集买入 Yes，且成交价几乎一致（0.35-0.38），这与以色列媒体披露的‘4月9日停火目标’高度吻合。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T12:48:57.668270
market_resolved_at: 2026-04-22T08:02:23.984962
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":895,"pnl":141156.65261365456,"volume":26844294.571304,"user_name":"MisTKy","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-5070263-f290eb6b-11db-423d-b532-cd773195842b.jpg","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":545321.8277518101,"avg_trade_size":5453.218277518101,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils","Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by Ma","Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?","US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","US forces enter Iran by March 31?","US forces enter Iran by April 30?","US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?","US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?","Trump announces end of military operations against","Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?"],"large_trades_count":26,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":145115.72653999997,"price":0.9200123965684657,"title":"Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils","timestamp":1774822188},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":51413.804729999996,"price":0.999,"title":"Will Jordan strike Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1775015179},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":28971.0,"price":0.999,"title":"Netanyahu out by March 31?","timestamp":1775018163},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":24479.2854,"price":0.981,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774972283},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":21255.5959,"price":0.67,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774806094},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":13968.0428,"price":0.47,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?","timestamp":1774892155},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":13116.82586,"price":0.9759274380095191,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774944001},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9990.0,"price":0.999,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1774909503},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9990.0,"price":0.999,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1774909471},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9990.0,"price":0.999,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1774908955}]}

reasoning:
该交易者排名较高且盈亏表现优秀。交易发生在多条关于 Kushner/Witkoff 秘密调停传闻流出的敏感时点。结合今日多位顶级鲸鱼（包括全站排名第 47 位）在同一价格区间的同向买入行为，表明‘聪明钱’正在利用市场对伊朗官方强硬姿态的恐惧（低价）进行精准套利。这种集体性的、针对特定小众调停信息的押注具有明显的内幕/专业情报特征。


id: 1469737_0x7ee4bff900775ad2840b2bdda72632fe02e72ec46aa581c06b67834bcabccff2-3335
market_id: 1469737
market_question: Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
condition_id: 0x25fb28382075f418a944a781a9f8840e2f541152eea0d9798d1cabfa1466adbb
transaction_hash: 0x7ee4bff900775ad2840b2bdda72632fe02e72ec46aa581c06b67834bcabccff2-3335
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x614dc8d3542c12103d2c6a3553fd761e391d1546
insider_evidence: 在推特/以色列媒体集中报道莫杰塔巴'死亡/昏迷'的当天，连续有两位高排名大户（#400 和历史信号中的大户）入场接盘 Yes Token，显示出对'死亡传闻'是虚假信息的高确定性判断。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T13:04:12.475683
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":400,"pnl":321239.3474195847,"volume":24130746.256113,"user_name":"mr.ozi","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Capture_2c5e68de-e9d9-41e8-b25d-2dcc67eefc45_1721219990648.PNG","verified":true,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":251019.71490000002,"avg_trade_size":2510.197149,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Iran coup attempt by June 30?","US forces enter Iran by December 31?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?","Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by Ma","Will Trump visit China by April 30?","US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?","US forces enter Iran by March 31?","Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end"],"large_trades_count":11,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":24633.5124,"price":0.84,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1774899173},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":24134.029300000002,"price":0.6602408833987127,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?","timestamp":1774899235},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":11336.883899999999,"price":0.57,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?","timestamp":1773867235},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10217.119999999999,"price":0.5866004957080547,"title":"Iran leadership change by December 31?","timestamp":1774958021},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10111.299,"price":0.5435916307320449,"title":"Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?","timestamp":1775044295},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7000.000000000001,"price":0.28,"title":"US forces enter Iran by December 31?","timestamp":1774960757},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6959.999999999999,"price":0.58,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?","timestamp":1773867337},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":6914.13706,"price":0.9877338657142857,"title":"Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?","timestamp":1774880409},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6869.8633,"price":0.6699697678659722,"title":"Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?","timestamp":1775048397},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5220.0,"price":0.29,"title":"US forces enter Iran by December 31?","timestamp":1774966261}]}

reasoning:
交易者为全站排名前400的资深用户，其持仓逻辑高度自洽。在社交媒体盛传领袖死亡、市场恐慌时逆势买入，显示出其对伊朗官方指挥系统存续的坚定判断。虽无直接证据表明其有内幕，但其分析维度明显优于受谣言驱动的普通交易者。


id: 1640919_0xb4524bc4d3bdbe3da131d4822a90d9f0c759acf429daff6c2801d6a91458babf-1985
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0xb4524bc4d3bdbe3da131d4822a90d9f0c759acf429daff6c2801d6a91458babf-1985
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0xcd71fd5370880f3d92bb941e628c05840fe0d127
insider_evidence: 交易时间 (21:14 UTC) 晚于特朗普言论公开时间 (约 12:30 UTC)，排除先知性内幕交易，属于对公开信息的快速博弈。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T13:18:08.840905
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":389,"pnl":329015.35307335877,"volume":12736233.419019999,"user_name":"Kevindoto","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":444110.40294800006,"avg_trade_size":4441.1040294800005,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","US forces enter Iran by March 7?","Will Nvidia run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?","New \"Stranger Things\" episode released by December","Government shutdown on Saturday?","Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?","Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed c","Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? ","Ukraine election called by March 31, 2026?","US forces enter Iran by March 31?"],"large_trades_count":17,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":96528.1008,"price":0.87,"title":"Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?","timestamp":1770552475},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":42287.9769,"price":0.87,"title":"Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?","timestamp":1770552475},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":35316.0,"price":0.981,"title":"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?","timestamp":1770299957},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":35316.0,"price":0.981,"title":"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?","timestamp":1770238409},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":27101.689,"price":0.986,"title":"Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?","timestamp":1770212324},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":24265.901930000004,"price":0.9550594397612696,"title":"Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?","timestamp":1770466951},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":23519.336610000002,"price":0.9680376643950891,"title":"Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?","timestamp":1770466941},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":19678.473570000002,"price":0.9787188516469416,"title":"Ilhan Omar town hall attack staged?","timestamp":1770467027},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":17998.90006,"price":0.998,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?","timestamp":1770335597},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10173.258000000002,"price":0.45,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775049293}]}

reasoning:
该交易是典型的基于公开新闻（特朗普 4 月 1 日关于战争结束时间表的讲话）的专业反应。信号显示出明显的转折点：15:00 UTC 之后的鲸鱼全部从 Yes 转向 No，说明专业投资者正在集体修正对地面战争的预期。


id: 1640919_0xd27d38acb0a8a2eeaaea2b672220dfeafefe5ed342cef151377a0e36d0f9dded-1042
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0xd27d38acb0a8a2eeaaea2b672220dfeafefe5ed342cef151377a0e36d0f9dded-1042
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0x05e26c775ecfe91b897d47f134c1bf5900ca6e12
detected_at: 2026-04-01T13:27:01.383109
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":356,"pnl":366025.1412067765,"volume":7730115.464533999,"user_name":"Llalalala","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":853857.682328,"avg_trade_size":8538.57682328,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US forces enter Iran by March 31?","Iran leadership change by March 31?","Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end","Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win","US forces enter Iran by April 30?","Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February","Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?","Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by Ap","Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by Ma","Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 9, 2026?"],"large_trades_count":39,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":149474.33156999998,"price":0.8833268834669897,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1772851335},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":134646.785822,"price":0.6668287399269629,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1772851523},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":36550.53683999999,"price":0.591,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1772307697},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":34042.080799999996,"price":0.91,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?","timestamp":1774417023},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":24070.96073,"price":0.8346140083347116,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?","timestamp":1772274361},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":23962.0707,"price":0.87,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774419517},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":21878.9017,"price":0.7945112675197076,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774465795},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":21878.8986,"price":0.78,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1774494487},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":20930.211935,"price":0.6799991935999484,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1772871347},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":19808.5908,"price":0.62,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1772786119}]}

reasoning:
交易者作为深耕该领域的专业鲸鱼，其建仓时机与总统重大演讲高度重合，且在市场仍偏向 'Yes' 的背景下，选择了与官方最新风向一致的 'No'。相比于昨日顶级鲸鱼的看多行为，该交易者显然在消化今日最新动态（或未公开细节）上更具优势。

insider_evidence:
1. 排名 356 名的大户在总统黄金时段演讲前 3 小时精准建仓；2. 市场整体方向在今日出现集体逆转；3. 虽然公开信号已现，但 55% 的 Yes 概率表明市场仍未完全定价演讲可能带来的利空（对 Yes 方）。


id: 1466016_0xee5608fa4dd194c90073f44a4dc9d2f936cfaeb70bc2ceddecad64bd7a0e5797-2725
market_id: 1466016
market_question: US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
condition_id: 0x80059ff4e694f878c0498f6f3a067ee7ca62dc2fc46251a4287b58355ce47bc5
transaction_hash: 0xee5608fa4dd194c90073f44a4dc9d2f936cfaeb70bc2ceddecad64bd7a0e5797-2725
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xbaa2bcb5439e985ce4ccf815b4700027d1b92c73
detected_at: 2026-04-01T13:41:49.241172
market_resolved_at: 2026-04-22T08:02:23.984962
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":124,"pnl":901506.3785026061,"volume":46176208.57599899,"user_name":"denizz","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":113951.20354899995,"avg_trade_size":1139.5120354899996,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?","US forces enter Iran by December 31?","Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, ","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?","Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April","Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?","US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?","Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Tur"],"large_trades_count":5,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":17216.207100000003,"price":0.27,"title":"US forces enter Iran by December 31?","timestamp":1774965861},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8582.42,"price":0.22,"title":"Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?","timestamp":1773905171},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7319.7682,"price":0.29,"title":"US forces enter Iran by December 31?","timestamp":1774961269},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6115.0928,"price":0.92,"title":"Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?","timestamp":1774565747},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5168.1277,"price":0.29,"title":"US forces enter Iran by December 31?","timestamp":1774923413}]}

reasoning:
该交易由排名第 124 位、盈亏达 90 万美元的资深交易者 denizz 发起，具有极高的可信度。交易发生于 21:38 UTC（美东时间 17:38），正处于特朗普在 Truth Social 发帖声称伊朗寻求停火之后，但在美东时间 21:00 突发电视讲话（全网中断直播）之前。此前该市场已有包括排名第 47 位在内的多位高排名交易者在相近价格区间（0.35-0.38）密集买入 Yes。虽然特朗普的帖文是公开信息，但市场赔率仍保持在 38% 左右，显示出公众对‘官方正式协议’（Resolve Yes 的核心条件）持怀疑态度。这批高排名交易者在重大电视讲话前数小时大规模建仓，极有可能是基于对讲话内容的内幕预判或对外交进展的深度解读（即确定讲话将包含官方确认）。

insider_evidence:
1. 交易时机精准：处于总统重大电视公告前 3 小时的敏感期。2. 聪明钱共识：排名 #47、#124、#895 的多位顶尖交易者在同一天内同向密集买入。3. 异常规模：交易金额（$12k）是该交易者平均水平的 10 倍以上。4. 信息差：市场整体定价偏低（38%），而头部交易者通过大额押注显示出极高的确定性。


id: 1569627_0x2b06c48732823eee0e518d8b6d86648e1b86813aeb3b1695685dc8f8dde3b716-1311
market_id: 1569627
market_question: US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
condition_id: 0x773abaa5fe55e5cde51a261f444b7921652a4e059ead6b3be9fe56499c2d4609
transaction_hash: 0x2b06c48732823eee0e518d8b6d86648e1b86813aeb3b1695685dc8f8dde3b716-1311
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x5b4c6723dbb7bf638cbd231af9022a0438346829
insider_evidence: 在赔率仅 20% 且公开新闻偏向负面（伊朗拒绝美方提议）时，新钱包连续以 5x 赔率博弈 Yes，极度符合掌握了反建议沟通进展或即将到来的全国讲话内容的内幕交易特征。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T13:55:35.010043
market_resolved_at: 2026-04-22T08:02:32.821289
resolved_outcome: Yes
reasoning:
该交易由新钱包发起，金额巨大且时机敏感（处于伊朗反建议与特朗普全国讲话传闻的窗口期）。多名顶级盈利交易者（#695, #766）已在该方向重仓，且与前一日的异常信号形成共振，暗示存在未公开的外交进展。


id: 1466016_0xf34e53d33ff4c3e77b5e8b89463fea28c57638fc86857b08c6c209ce9ab890fb-1604
market_id: 1466016
market_question: US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
condition_id: 0x80059ff4e694f878c0498f6f3a067ee7ca62dc2fc46251a4287b58355ce47bc5
transaction_hash: 0xf34e53d33ff4c3e77b5e8b89463fea28c57638fc86857b08c6c209ce9ab890fb-1604
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x5b4c6723dbb7bf638cbd231af9022a0438346829
insider_evidence: 1. 交易发生于总统演讲前 3 小时的敏感窗口；2. 顶级大户（#47）全天持续吸筹；3. 交易者使用无历史记录的干净钱包进行大额单边操作，避开身份关联。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T13:56:44.893691
market_resolved_at: 2026-04-22T08:02:23.984962
resolved_outcome: Yes
reasoning:
该交易由一个全新的‘影子钱包’发起，时机精准选在总统就该主题发表全国讲话前 3 小时。交易方向与全天密集建仓的顶级聪明钱（如排名 #47 和 #124 的大户）完全一致，表明知情者群体正在协议公布前最后冲刺。


id: 1517835_0xd6c196a3af24ddc8766044e214a87af0e031b3724a8e9199ec801e78b6c695c3-1449
market_id: 1517835
market_question: Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
condition_id: 0xfa59099fbda1e0f0058ed3cbd57e939fe90ab6d9b57d53bd488bcadf75c191d4
transaction_hash: 0xd6c196a3af24ddc8766044e214a87af0e031b3724a8e9199ec801e78b6c695c3-1449
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0x46d3d62ab3dd01fb8dc3b16f0141462c82df62e0
detected_at: 2026-04-01T14:28:38.638906
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:06:04.812226
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":1872,"pnl":66829.28503086972,"volume":283775.913212,"user_name":"Optionsguru18","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":69,"total_volume":73118.60308600003,"avg_trade_size":1059.6898997971018,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025?","US forces enter Iran by April 30?","Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?","Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of Marc","Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?","Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of Marc","Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025?","Trump announces end of military operations against","Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in November?"],"large_trades_count":3,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6373.371099999999,"price":0.5683248545831174,"title":"Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?","timestamp":1774440657},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6030.0,"price":0.67,"title":"Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?","timestamp":1773409825},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5640.0,"price":0.47,"title":"Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?","timestamp":1775053663}]}

reasoning:
交易者 Optionsguru18 表现出极高的风险敏感度。他在今日早些时候高位追涨 Yes，随后在晚间反手重仓买入 No。这种行为极像是在捕捉到了某些非公开的谈判破裂细节，或者是对特朗普推文真实意图的深度拆解（识别出该言论不满足 Polymarket 结算规则）。

insider_evidence:
该交易者在持有 Yes 的情况下，于价格下行期反手买入 No，而非简单的平仓。结合顶级交易者 SwissMiss 同样重仓 No 的事实，暗示聪明钱群体认为当前的停火传闻是一场政治烟雾弹，实际军事行动在4月30日前结束的概率已被高估。


id: 1706788_0xb238d70cb49d059f09767a901ec1518f4eb4b703d98be48d37dac5eaf5d4527b-4377
market_id: 1706788
market_question: US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
condition_id: 0x4c5701bcde0b8fb7d7f48c8e9d20245a6caa58c61a77f981fad98f2bfa0b1bc7
transaction_hash: 0xb238d70cb49d059f09767a901ec1518f4eb4b703d98be48d37dac5eaf5d4527b-4377
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35
reasoning: 该交易者是平台顶级鲸鱼（Rank 76），其行为完全符合大额资金的风险管理逻辑。买入 Yes 的金额与他此前持有的巨额 No 仓位在清算价值上几乎相等。
insider_evidence: 无明确内幕证据。该交易是对冲行为，旨在防御特朗普 Truth Social 言论可能引发的黑天鹅结算风险（即便概率极低）。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T14:47:51.854392
market_resolved_at: 2026-04-22T08:02:37.297443
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":359200.6958899999,"avg_trade_size":3592.006958899999,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Electio","US forces enter Iran by December 31?","Will Trump say \"Third term\" in March?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?","Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?","Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by Ma","Will a Gulf State carry out military action agains","Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April","Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?"],"large_trades_count":17,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":93000.0,"price":0.93,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?","timestamp":1775037227},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":83000.0,"price":0.83,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","timestamp":1775037241},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":18989.0022,"price":0.42,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774969931},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":11239.2429,"price":0.57,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775007551},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9484.98202,"price":0.998,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","timestamp":1774994161},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8869.83904,"price":0.992,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774991439},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8816.8859,"price":0.9919988636363636,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774993695},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8606.7528,"price":0.94,"title":"Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?","timestamp":1775023691},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8169.210500000001,"price":0.55,"title":"Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?","timestamp":1775038025},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7767.19503,"price":0.999,"title":"Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?","timestamp":1775023129}]}


id: 1640919_0xa7efc58ecd68285a7cc16096391818d509296af99f9761aacde99b9e51d35889-2323
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0xa7efc58ecd68285a7cc16096391818d509296af99f9761aacde99b9e51d35889-2323
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0xcb8958d949be35a5727225f176c4b60ad97f8803
insider_evidence: 1. 交易者在3月市场成功获利的履历。2. 交易时机紧贴五角大楼简报，且与特朗普'两周内结束'的未公开具体方案时间线高度吻合。3. 市场价格尚未完全反映'空中致胜论'导致的地面进攻概率下降。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T15:17:03.442815
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":4514,"pnl":25588.63070955928,"volume":297704.103724,"user_name":"4ndr3m4c13l","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-6443888-5fb27cc1-415f-42f6-a552-956944981b5a.webp","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":55,"total_volume":362548.1014494294,"avg_trade_size":6591.783662716898,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET","US forces enter Iran by March 7?","Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET","Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET","US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","US forces enter Iran by March 31?","Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET","Will another country strike Iran by March 7?","Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET","US forces enter Iran by April 30?"],"large_trades_count":16,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":73282.7251,"price":0.995,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1775056397},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":33633.3913,"price":0.4687465033963622,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775056423},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":29039.109998000004,"price":0.8722570142185159,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774819878},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":29039.109199999995,"price":0.8633383081855545,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","timestamp":1774819866},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":21275.0149,"price":0.5,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775056423},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":18374.3238,"price":0.4823105296397618,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775056423},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":12514.29318,"price":0.999,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 14?","timestamp":1773555767},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":12514.289998,"price":0.6103682522131743,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1773555787},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":11554.269999,"price":0.4399999999862908,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774138139},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":11239.27,"price":0.7074605983292869,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","timestamp":1774448025}]}

reasoning:
该交易者刚刚在'3月31日前美军入伊'市场中成功获利（从其$73k的SELL 0.995记录可证），展现了对美军军事部署节奏的极高判断力。其在4月1日国防部长简报强调'无地面部队即赢'且特朗普预告'2-3周结束战争'后立即滚动下注，体现了对政策风向的敏锐捕捉。虽然其依据的信息部分源于公开简报，但在0.46的低价重仓押注，显示其可能掌握了更具体的关于'停火协议进度'或'地面部队动员处于停滞状态'的非公开线索。


id: 1466016_0xe3d1a43848d5bfc864a4d989d67ad636862f17b3e693af986afed0e9325d5494-2586
market_id: 1466016
market_question: US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
condition_id: 0x80059ff4e694f878c0498f6f3a067ee7ca62dc2fc46251a4287b58355ce47bc5
transaction_hash: 0xe3d1a43848d5bfc864a4d989d67ad636862f17b3e693af986afed0e9325d5494-2586
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0x49b306b0c083ebf5230dce5b151ecfaf63f06486
insider_evidence: 无直接内幕证据。但该交易者在相关市场的多空反手操作显示其对该地缘政治事件有极高敏感度。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T15:31:19.727805
market_resolved_at: 2026-04-22T08:02:23.984962
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":1329,"pnl":93735.99063426198,"volume":1325991.5533480004,"user_name":"nickbrat","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":829748.8641689993,"avg_trade_size":8297.488641689992,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US forces enter Iran by March 7?","Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026","Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?","Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March?","US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","US forces enter Iran by March 31?","Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?","Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djo","US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?","Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026"],"large_trades_count":39,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":108043.3083,"price":0.798933144121233,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","timestamp":1775048415},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":51393.299997999995,"price":0.8454339641928433,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1772536721},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":51393.2993,"price":0.9618688910320607,"title":"Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?","timestamp":1772536695},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":43310.42884,"price":0.994,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","timestamp":1774946573},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":35715.584,"price":0.79,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","timestamp":1775053097},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":34763.029200000004,"price":0.81,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","timestamp":1774946625},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":30315.389999000003,"price":0.7544127782845552,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","timestamp":1774173419},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":30310.21617,"price":0.9775193493269968,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1774173341},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":29097.20999,"price":0.9099999999990618,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","timestamp":1774173531},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":29097.20832,"price":0.9767008752885069,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1774173471}]}

reasoning:
该交易发生在伊朗官方否认停火传闻之后、特朗普重大演说之前。交易者从早期的 Yes 倾向转为 No，反映了对外交辟谣的采信。虽然时机敏感，但考虑到伊朗的否认已是公开新闻，这更像是一个专业政治博弈者对后续讲话走势的‘提前抢跑’，而非掌握了未公开的秘密外交结论。


id: 567687_0x395d7bdeaf9d2a43bfa907e7f905cac847d73d86c503bb960219d5651be15064-2880
market_id: 567687
market_question: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
condition_id: 0xaeea5f917fc5746387b5f9c0a4263dba035dbb3f0ac6ad72bf92183d21e26739
transaction_hash: 0x395d7bdeaf9d2a43bfa907e7f905cac847d73d86c503bb960219d5651be15064-2880
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x93fb8127a1b21a112b11af936361225df0563e4a
insider_evidence: 无明确证据。交易金额虽大，但与其平均交易规模相比属于正常波动范围，且价格 0.27 处于市场公允估值区间。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T15:46:02.273412
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2489054,"pnl":-350845.3057813911,"volume":16480831.549176998,"user_name":"LlamaLoco0000","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-103509-04c51064-4c6c-46f3-892a-bcc7025f43e4.png","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":155793.59708910005,"avg_trade_size":1557.9359708910006,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-21?","Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?","Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30","Brazil vs. France: O/U 2.5","Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by Ma","Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?","Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 10,000 in 20","US forces enter Iran by March 31?","Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)","US forces enter Iran by April 30?"],"large_trades_count":8,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":15293.0625,"price":0.25,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1774119135},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":7600.5035,"price":0.95,"title":"Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?","timestamp":1774124549},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":6685.5595,"price":0.7102527587053128,"title":"US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31?","timestamp":1774672957},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6315.7314,"price":0.5393234771960477,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?","timestamp":1774118709},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6023.5945,"price":0.55,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?","timestamp":1774118821},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6023.578600000001,"price":0.3486052845406121,"title":"Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?","timestamp":1774264485},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5913.8597,"price":0.6779088297599178,"title":"Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?","timestamp":1773528703},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5182.6414,"price":0.38,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?","timestamp":1774119143}]}

reasoning:
交易者虽为大额持仓鲸鱼，但历史 PnL 极差（亏损 $35万），表现出明显的非理性交易习惯。其买入时点虽紧随‘能源停火’传闻，但该信息已在 Twitter 和 FT 等渠道公开讨论。更重要的是，市场 Top 盈利交易者集体站在其对手盘（No 方），信号强度显著弱化。


id: 1640919_0x3d2f8051adb07bcb62c03307e881e76c4f2dfdb798279f3eb59eec2e190c054f-1181
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0x3d2f8051adb07bcb62c03307e881e76c4f2dfdb798279f3eb59eec2e190c054f-1181
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x0a854897a06d4999e5b2dde5693609f1428ffe9d
insider_evidence: 1. 交易发生在全国讲话前 70 分钟；2. 交易者在价格下跌（0.67->0.53）时大规模加仓，而非对冲；3. 交易者对该细分领域的历史操作精准度极高。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T15:51:33.935360
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":1410952.239335,"avg_trade_size":14109.52239335,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US forces enter Iran by March 31?","US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?","Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?","US forces enter Iran by April 30?","Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?","Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?","Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31"],"large_trades_count":36,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":590031.65184,"price":0.998,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1772481065},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":159818.06542,"price":0.899660545557111,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774812376},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":68038.2505,"price":0.8399784012345679,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774606071},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":48236.427,"price":0.719946671641791,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774859074},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":41180.7958,"price":0.5882970828571429,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774969997},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":40300.0,"price":0.65,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774781226},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":24477.7591,"price":0.6799377527777778,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774887673},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":21352.2477,"price":0.895,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774812376},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":18266.042,"price":0.6298635172413793,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774940869},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":17400.0,"price":0.6,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774970335}]}

reasoning:
交易者 TheQuietRisk 是该领域的顶级专家，持仓量位居第一且历史记录极佳。其交易时机（总统讲话前 1 小时）极度敏感。考虑到该市场只需特种部队入境即可触发 Yes，而其在价格因‘不全面开战’新闻下跌时逆势加仓，极有可能是获悉了讲话中将承认已有特种部队参与陆地行动的信息。


id: 1394299_0x36a95cf602ce66697a5457ae9282136c194ec341a6ce0591f7b9230ed3cea719-2345
market_id: 1394299
market_question: US forces enter Iran by December 31?
condition_id: 0xe4b9a52d2bb336ff9d84799b70e72e8e5f4507df881af60f3f4daeb9f541a80e
transaction_hash: 0x36a95cf602ce66697a5457ae9282136c194ec341a6ce0591f7b9230ed3cea719-2345
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x5b4c6723dbb7bf638cbd231af9022a0438346829
insider_evidence: 无。交易发生在重大公开新闻（五角大楼发布会、伊朗否认停火）数小时后，且交易者历史 PnL 为负，过往记录显示其对时机的把握并不精准。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T15:54:21.968407
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2428998,"pnl":-1917.6359695427054,"volume":253954.902502,"user_name":"war-machine","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":8,"total_volume":113184.133997,"avg_trade_size":14148.016749625,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","US forces enter Iran by December 31?"],"large_trades_count":7,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":25371.879998999997,"price":0.21957887597479137,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","timestamp":1775051693},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":20000.0,"price":0.19841161580963596,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","timestamp":1775051653},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":19999.999999000003,"price":0.636995324900785,"title":"US forces enter Iran by December 31?","timestamp":1775058687},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":14999.999999,"price":0.3988678172585371,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","timestamp":1775051625},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":12000.0,"price":0.2,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","timestamp":1775057831},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":11412.253999999999,"price":0.35,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","timestamp":1775058077},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":7600.0,"price":0.2,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","timestamp":1775058203}]}

reasoning:
该交易者 (war-machine) 表现出明显的'趋势追随'和'报复性交易'特征。其在同一天的停火博弈中失败止损后，于五角大楼发布会 12 小时后反手买入。虽然该方向与 Rank #60 的聪明钱一致，但其交易时间点完全处于公开信息流之后，不具备内幕优势。


id: 1394299_0xb9b5f2d4c60a30980a654937f4fb5f6bca3da322828899f7042f7a951c2d702e-2250
market_id: 1394299
market_question: US forces enter Iran by December 31?
condition_id: 0xe4b9a52d2bb336ff9d84799b70e72e8e5f4507df881af60f3f4daeb9f541a80e
transaction_hash: 0xb9b5f2d4c60a30980a654937f4fb5f6bca3da322828899f7042f7a951c2d702e-2250
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x67ea1a9fc49b9ee618f4bb84c199cae6206eae12
reasoning: 交易者虽排名中等，但专注于伊朗局势，其操作与 Rank #60 的顶级鲸鱼步调一致。交易时机精准卡在美军部署消息传播与实际行动爆发的窗口期。
insider_evidence: 顶级鲸鱼 SecondWindCapital 的同步大额买入，以及该交易者在冲突升级节点前果断平掉所有停火/和平合约并全仓押注地面进入。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T16:10:50.243086
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":6338,"pnl":17624.39381568151,"volume":744576.7333839999,"user_name":"OddChain","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":242411.1557950001,"avg_trade_size":2424.111557950001,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?","Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of February?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?","US forces enter Iran by December 31?","US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?","Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?","Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair","Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?","US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?"],"large_trades_count":11,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":24999.999998,"price":0.6479396323058417,"title":"US forces enter Iran by December 31?","timestamp":1775059683},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":17022.14536,"price":0.9586322548671768,"title":"Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?","timestamp":1773245963},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":12905.1361,"price":0.7864731757884608,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","timestamp":1774270651},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":11110.999999,"price":0.6415337026561737,"title":"US forces enter Iran by December 31?","timestamp":1774271075},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10230.299997999999,"price":0.7099999999812615,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","timestamp":1773248111},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10118.969998,"price":0.9564752367485296,"title":"Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?","timestamp":1772896433},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":7845.877,"price":0.6453942346290776,"title":"US forces enter Iran by December 31?","timestamp":1774995079},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":7788.527099999999,"price":0.6406766874617495,"title":"US forces enter Iran by December 31?","timestamp":1774995101},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7422.189998,"price":0.6741765787173761,"title":"US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?","timestamp":1771687530},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5688.21,"price":0.66,"title":"US forces enter Iran by December 31?","timestamp":1773872161}]}


id: 1640919_0xb11b154a69e870ede72ef9df99da13df0af9763ca5de0f3472130e91053e36d6-2191
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0xb11b154a69e870ede72ef9df99da13df0af9763ca5de0f3472130e91053e36d6-2191
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xafc0ffff5fd3e1df677e60333d993382c9a35087
insider_evidence: 美军 82 空降师和 75 游骑兵已在剧场内就位。交易者可能先于媒体获知关于‘哈尔克岛地面物理占领’的预指令下达。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T16:37:26.623341
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
reasoning:
该交易方向与市场顶级盈利鲸鱼（#60, #164）完全一致，且发生在军事部署基本完成、作战方案（Epic Fury）进入执行窗口的关键期。新钱包避开排名系统直接投入 $1.1万，符合内幕知情者或资深鲸鱼子钱包的行为特征。


id: 1484895_0x2931bc29bc5192bbb261e0405cbd39639137cd74e7a75e50c8632e43066b1d0c-1312
market_id: 1484895
market_question: US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?
condition_id: 0x81b06cb917c9a2aabc67a7765bc3c640e88a699bbf451b29915049c0766cde04
transaction_hash: 0x2931bc29bc5192bbb261e0405cbd39639137cd74e7a75e50c8632e43066b1d0c-1312
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x35417b3d09d7a0991f75d7cc95162a6e34d7462e
insider_evidence: 该交易者在所有相关市场（4/15, 5/31, 6/30, 12/31）均持有同向看多头寸，具有极强的偏好一致性，符合‘特定领域意见领袖’而非‘一次性内幕泄露’的特征。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T18:23:09.828315
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:10.412577
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":3691,"pnl":32059.31697537274,"volume":18747799.045801,"user_name":"Casdifer","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-4798110-1d9f916f-7692-4971-8d44-8fe6be7e7927.jpg","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":212262.91687900005,"avg_trade_size":2122.6291687900007,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?","US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?","US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?"],"large_trades_count":13,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":22623.672400000003,"price":0.19,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","timestamp":1774963961},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":13445.714100000001,"price":0.67,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","timestamp":1774487447},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9167.6824,"price":0.76,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?","timestamp":1775064925},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8676.3006,"price":0.38,"title":"Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?","timestamp":1774558555},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6859.008,"price":0.6,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?","timestamp":1774441173},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6522.842500000001,"price":0.6898806772691362,"title":"Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?","timestamp":1774443015},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":6332.526199999999,"price":0.77,"title":"Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?","timestamp":1775037933},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6062.6889,"price":0.6491866172675583,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","timestamp":1774442923},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5805.278,"price":0.45810985271743593,"title":"Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?","timestamp":1774474721},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":5576.973,"price":0.37,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","timestamp":1775051071}]}

reasoning:
交易者是美伊局势市场的长期深度参与者，其交易方向与特朗普的公开言论高度一致。虽然买入时间点在公开新闻之后，但其持续加仓行为暗示其对谈判细节或特朗普的决策逻辑有超越普通散户的理解。然而，面对 Top 100 顶级鲸鱼集体做空的局面，该交易更像是一种高风险的观点表达，而非掌握绝对内幕的单边收割。


id: 567561_0x07620e9554a732d75fc94126eecfc68f28ddd701c9332016752b6342f4c69d3e-863
market_id: 567561
market_question: Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
condition_id: 0x1480b819d03d4b6388d70e848b0384adf38c38d955cb783cdbcf6d4a436dee14
transaction_hash: 0x07620e9554a732d75fc94126eecfc68f28ddd701c9332016752b6342f4c69d3e-863
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xe5c215ac428d4143f9ebc817c9ac6e717a2e2ab0
insider_evidence: 无明确内幕证据。该交易发生在多份显示反对党领先的独立民调发布之后，属于对已知趋势的重仓押注。尽管金额较大，但交易者极低的 PnL 和未上榜的排名削弱了其作为知情人士的可信度。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T18:32:41.262267
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:09.723264
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2494384,"pnl":-148734.8190632916,"volume":6108645.238252,"user_name":"dwFqcd4Z","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":619716.03022,"avg_trade_size":6197.1603022,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31?","Trump out as President before 2027?","Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?","US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?","Trump declares election interference national emer","Ukraine election called by March 31, 2026?","Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the","US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?","Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?"],"large_trades_count":39,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":37236.0366,"price":0.7499711298861067,"title":"Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay","timestamp":1769101682},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":37236.0,"price":0.87,"title":"Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?","timestamp":1769101620},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":30013.098799999996,"price":0.82,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","timestamp":1772234609},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":21801.83094,"price":0.974,"title":"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?","timestamp":1772194277},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":21779.44713,"price":0.973,"title":"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?","timestamp":1772234701},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":19334.4744,"price":0.8390788499511772,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","timestamp":1772215639},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":18548.7288,"price":0.7571564886430989,"title":"Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay","timestamp":1770752559},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":18200.0,"price":0.91,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","timestamp":1772142930},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":17767.703,"price":0.85,"title":"Trump out as President before 2027?","timestamp":1770752325},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":17413.44,"price":0.88,"title":"US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?","timestamp":1772117400}]}

reasoning:
该交易者的历史表现极差（累计亏损约 $14.8 万），且交易行为呈现出典型的高频率、大额赌博特征，而非精准的内幕交易风格。虽然其在 2026 年 4 月 2 日（距匈牙利大选仅 10 天）买入看多，但此时民调（如 Medián 和 Nowcast）已广泛显示马加尔（Magyar）领导的 Tisza 党以 48%-53% 的支持率大幅领先欧尔班的 Fidesz 党。该交易者更像是在跟随市场共识和强劲的民调趋势进行追涨。历史上的 6 笔异常交易也均指向 Yes，说明市场早已在定价这一预期，信息不对称程度较低。


id: 1535973_0x54860d21297cebe2cd28d962c5b0329a6a8776506451ae0137849f89404c270d-1734
market_id: 1535973
market_question: Iran leadership change by December 31?
condition_id: 0x377e7fe65cf198a7fc4fdae3f2136b74729279267858daaf96718b23bc2a5607
transaction_hash: 0x54860d21297cebe2cd28d962c5b0329a6a8776506451ae0137849f89404c270d-1734
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0x7368675d907a8dd84b7fe53f86bfbe76e04b8b3b
insider_evidence: 交易者在伊朗领导层变动市场的历史胜率极高，且入场价格（0.69）处于市场对莫杰塔巴生存状态极度疑虑的窗口期。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T18:34:01.510346
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":9456,"pnl":11715.582820306925,"volume":127121.08667900001,"user_name":"CREEED","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":41,"total_volume":85515.94508200002,"avg_trade_size":2085.7547580975615,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US forces enter Iran by March 31?","Iran leadership change by March 31?","Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?","Iran leadership change by April 30?","Iran leadership change by December 31?","Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?","Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?","Iran leadership change by March 13?","Trump announces end of military operations against"],"large_trades_count":3,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":20287.69332,"price":0.996,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1775021487},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":5324.00064,"price":0.9630726862923153,"title":"Iran leadership change by March 31?","timestamp":1774817680},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5254.70143,"price":0.8637444141080243,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774817746}]}

reasoning:
交易者 CREEED 是伊朗市场的专才，在之前的领导层更迭和美军干预事件中通过 0.99 的精准结项证明了其判断力。本次 $5,286 的交易是在莫杰塔巴伤亡传闻最盛时买入其‘地位稳固’（No），且与排名 #400 的顶级交易者 mr.ozi 方向一致。考虑到特朗普近期频繁释放 4 月停火信号，该交易者可能拥有关于政权交接已完成、或美方不再寻求清除莫杰塔巴的准内幕信息。不过，排名 #219 的交易者在 Yes 方持有重仓，表明顶级聪明钱之间仍存在信息差博弈。


id: 1484895_0x658eae5acbaa49696e345289ab8084d5ca9e2f9f924cfb243c6e7702eb6ce385-1015
market_id: 1484895
market_question: US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?
condition_id: 0x81b06cb917c9a2aabc67a7765bc3c640e88a699bbf451b29915049c0766cde04
transaction_hash: 0x658eae5acbaa49696e345289ab8084d5ca9e2f9f924cfb243c6e7702eb6ce385-1015
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x35417b3d09d7a0991f75d7cc95162a6e34d7462e
insider_evidence: 交易发生在特朗普全国讲话后的 4 小时内，且在伊朗官方公开否认停火请求后，交易者反而追加了约 $4.2w 的总持仓，显示其可能掌握了某些关于美军单方面‘五天暂停攻击’或更深层撤军时间表的解读优势。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T18:37:32.574583
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:10.412577
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":3691,"pnl":32059.31697537274,"volume":18747799.045801,"user_name":"Casdifer","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-4798110-1d9f916f-7692-4971-8d44-8fe6be7e7927.jpg","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":253204.40647900006,"avg_trade_size":2532.0440647900004,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?","US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?","US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?"],"large_trades_count":15,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":31566.6186,"price":0.66,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?","timestamp":1775067505},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":22623.672400000003,"price":0.19,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","timestamp":1774963961},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":13445.714100000001,"price":0.67,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","timestamp":1774487447},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10641.098,"price":0.65,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?","timestamp":1775068443},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9167.6824,"price":0.76,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?","timestamp":1775064925},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8676.3006,"price":0.38,"title":"Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?","timestamp":1774558555},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6859.008,"price":0.6,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?","timestamp":1774441173},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6522.842500000001,"price":0.6898806772691362,"title":"Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?","timestamp":1774443015},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":6332.526199999999,"price":0.77,"title":"Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?","timestamp":1775037933},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6062.6889,"price":0.6491866172675583,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","timestamp":1774442923}]}

reasoning:
该交易者是此领域的专项玩家，其交易时机精准捕捉了特朗普 4 月 1 日晚间讲话后的市场波动。虽然不是内幕信息，但其连续大额买入展示了对‘特朗普强行结束战争’这一逻辑的极高信心。然而，考虑到对手方是排名前 30 的顶级鲸鱼，该信号存在较大的解读分歧风险。


id: 1394299_0x7432b51fd01d1dfbf1433bcd269bb57685f25f1f7bfc2f0695fb6b2d13cd3de8-675
market_id: 1394299
market_question: US forces enter Iran by December 31?
condition_id: 0xe4b9a52d2bb336ff9d84799b70e72e8e5f4507df881af60f3f4daeb9f541a80e
transaction_hash: 0x7432b51fd01d1dfbf1433bcd269bb57685f25f1f7bfc2f0695fb6b2d13cd3de8-675
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x56c9fbdeccf198f1f5ad95ace39b24f5f7fb0d9e
detected_at: 2026-04-01T18:39:45.265679
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2494808,"pnl":-486192.4024762865,"volume":36929375.365441,"user_name":"redvinny","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":75164.55578375063,"avg_trade_size":751.6455578375063,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Counter-Strike: Heroic vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Sta","Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9AM ET","Counter-Strike: Heroic vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Win","Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Alliance - Map 1 ","Bucharest Open: Nuno Borges vs Damir Dzumhur","Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8AM ET","Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Alliance (BO3) - ","Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Alliance - Map 2 "],"large_trades_count":0,"recent_trades":[]}

reasoning:
该交易者 (redvinny) 排名极低且累计亏损接近 50 万美元，展现出典型的『大户博弈』特征而非专业内幕人士。交易发生在特朗普 4 月 1 日晚间演讲（约 UTC 01:00）后 1.5 小时，当时市场正处于对演讲内容的解读期（演讲虽提到 2-3 周内撤军，但也发出了『放下武器否则面临死亡』的严厉威胁，且未明确排除特种部队行动）。

insider_evidence:
该交易者的 $2.1 万买入金额远高于其平均交易额 ($751)，属于显著的行为偏差。然而，鉴于其极差的历史盈亏表现，此举更像是对演讲不确定性的激进押注，而非基于未公开事实。值得注意的是，顶级聪明钱 (Rank #60, PnL $1.5M+) 此前已重仓看多该结果，这笔交易更像是散户鲸鱼在追随某种正在形成的『战争升级』叙事。


id: 1640919_0x7ca1904e70a99c61b00204435066b5165b0ea6cef71cb81c11b9318ac299f13e-1531
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0x7ca1904e70a99c61b00204435066b5165b0ea6cef71cb81c11b9318ac299f13e-1531
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xe7fd3fb56636dedc7dc481eca4b08d8ab5fb89de
insider_evidence: 无直接证据表明该特定交易者拥有内幕。信号主要源于该市场中排名 Top 200 的多位精英交易者持续加仓 Yes，形成了‘聪明钱’共识，而该交易者属于趋势追随者。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T18:43:45.285017
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2492371,"pnl":-41915.350825878704,"volume":1298113.305789,"user_name":"numbernine","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":400824.7752009999,"avg_trade_size":4008.247752009999,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Aspinall vs. Gane","Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?","Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?","Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025?","Will Jensen Huang be TIME's Person of the Year for","No change in Fed interest rates after December 202","Maduro out in 2025?","Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA","Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Goo","Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?"],"large_trades_count":21,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":63035.52632,"price":0.494,"title":"Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?","timestamp":1727950489},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":19164.882,"price":0.55,"title":"No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?","timestamp":1763405075},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":18912.0834,"price":0.63,"title":"Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025?","timestamp":1762424627},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":18250.0,"price":0.73,"title":"Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?","timestamp":1762709039},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":17908.430999999997,"price":0.82,"title":"Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?","timestamp":1764015257},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":13600.000000000002,"price":0.68,"title":"No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?","timestamp":1763579185},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":11191.949999999999,"price":0.95,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1772307221},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":10475.6571,"price":0.81,"title":"Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?","timestamp":1773430783},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10400.0,"price":0.52,"title":"No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?","timestamp":1763282033},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10400.0,"price":0.52,"title":"No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?","timestamp":1763282025}]}

reasoning:
该交易者 'numbernine' 排名极低且历史 PnL 为负（-$41k），显示其并非典型的信息优势者。尽管交易金额较大（$13k），但更像是跟随市场中高排名鲸鱼（如 TheQuietRisk 和 SecondWindCapital）的趋势。目前公开新闻已广泛报道美军陆战队和 82 空降师抵近中东，且明确将伊朗哈尔克岛（Kharg Island）列为潜在地面目标。交易发生在美军集结及媒体猜测升温的背景下，其看多行为很大程度上已被公开的军事调动和外交‘4月6日截止日期’传闻所解释。


id: 567560_0xafea93e402e09fc6ba455aa7937d1f6fc1991a97fbf4f780689201de4be97e0f-3740
market_id: 567560
market_question: Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
condition_id: 0x5ec80dc407457301f282a2b44341947afc700dfaa7923d14c8894e04bc63b03f
transaction_hash: 0xafea93e402e09fc6ba455aa7937d1f6fc1991a97fbf4f780689201de4be97e0f-3740
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xfd22b8843ae03a33a8a4c5e39ef1e5ff33ebad91
insider_evidence: 无明确内幕证据。该交易更多反映了对‘现任者优势’和‘选举体制韧性’的抄底策略，而非掌握了未公开的计票结果或突发丑闻。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T18:56:34.975171
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:08.846246
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":1345,"pnl":92566.98039530222,"volume":5918423.206216,"user_name":"AML","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-2982489-e31e2b2c-de88-4a4d-9d7d-bef4e82ea033.jpeg","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":59,"total_volume":1445062.0159890002,"avg_trade_size":24492.576542186445,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?","Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?","Utah vs. Ducks","Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor ","Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?","UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev","Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2","Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?","US military action against Iran before July?","Iran strike on Israel by Friday?"],"large_trades_count":35,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":199800.0,"price":0.6,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1772446971},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":143455.802,"price":0.82,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1774877447},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":99999.99999899999,"price":0.3324810829420456,"title":"UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev","timestamp":1755340324},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":99999.999998,"price":0.8382672955416768,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1772621969},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":99999.999997,"price":0.8268927652007628,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1772611279},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":99999.999995,"price":0.8316947345910092,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1772611299},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":96531.62997,"price":0.8471574846455847,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1772694391},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":75865.3137,"price":0.8298399623633884,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1774877447},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":68857.9906,"price":0.7965465310809126,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1772446809},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":52596.1179,"price":0.995,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1774760646}]}

reasoning:
该交易发生在选举前10天的民调剧烈波动期。虽然金额较大，但交易者 AML 并非首次操作，其过往记录显示其更像是一个具有高风险偏好的政治趋势博弈者，而非内幕知情人士。他正在与多位排名更高（Top 100）的‘看空派’聪明钱进行博弈。


id: 1813642_0xb3a25b41d359c52462a144f4e73defebabd82eef16c037f7409984217f250fec-903
market_id: 1813642
market_question: Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Nation?
condition_id: 0x959c88f990077233716e9e5bd068f2a457d515000c0fcbe57102154258a2ac74
transaction_hash: 0xb3a25b41d359c52462a144f4e73defebabd82eef16c037f7409984217f250fec-903
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x364f1d342b6d895196ab7b6d7399871a647a1515
insider_evidence: 无。交易时间点完全处于公开信息窗口之后，且交易者历史表现极差，符合典型的‘追高’零售交易者特征。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T19:39:43.636074
market_resolved_at: 2026-04-02T04:23:57.723006
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2459441,"pnl":-3264.657757408092,"volume":55193.14390799999,"user_name":"Polly67","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":8,"total_volume":5988.289997,"avg_trade_size":748.536249625,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?","Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?","Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?","Will Trump say \"April Fool\" or \"April Fool's\" duri","Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?","Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?"],"large_trades_count":0,"recent_trades":[]}

reasoning:
该交易发生在电视讲话开始 2.5 小时后，此时 Trump 提到 'Ceasefire' 的消息已在社交媒体（Twitter/X）和实时新闻滚动中完全公开。交易者 Polly67 的负 PnL 历史和低排名进一步证明其只是在看到公开直播后进行的滞后反应。市场未完全定价（0.64）很可能是由于 Top 鲸鱼正在博弈语义细节（转述请求 vs. 直接宣布），而非缺乏信息。


id: 1640919_0x7c96360bfcd949661a1f0def4d8d9b1a12a54abef92c853a7db1c81221d1d66b-4324
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0x7c96360bfcd949661a1f0def4d8d9b1a12a54abef92c853a7db1c81221d1d66b-4324
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0xcf6087abd66e16b59a122d45bfcdc05d4b7247ce
insider_evidence: 无。该笔交易完全落后于公开新闻发布的时点。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T19:45:41.973355
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2487061,"pnl":-21757.349499999993,"volume":155853.01,"user_name":"steeplejack","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":9,"total_volume":109455.5775,"avg_trade_size":12161.730833333333,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?","US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","Devils vs. Rangers","Hurricanes vs. Blue Jackets","Jets vs. Blackhawks","Senators vs. Panthers","US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?"],"large_trades_count":7,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":30870.0,"price":0.63,"title":"Senators vs. Panthers","timestamp":1774990975},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":16239.999999999998,"price":0.58,"title":"Jets vs. Blackhawks","timestamp":1774991429},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":15660.000000000002,"price":0.54,"title":"Devils vs. Rangers","timestamp":1774991017},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":15400.000000000002,"price":0.55,"title":"Hurricanes vs. Blue Jackets","timestamp":1774991507},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":14193.214,"price":0.35,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","timestamp":1775034057},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7634.6672,"price":0.16,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","timestamp":1775034425},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6688.7002,"price":0.14,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","timestamp":1775033941}]}

reasoning:
交易者 steeplejack 的历史盈亏记录极差，其交易方向与目前胜率最高的顶级鲸鱼相反。其买入逻辑完全可以由公开的新闻报道（特朗普停火言论）解释。这更像是一个处于亏损状态的交易者试图通过博弈高波动的地缘政治反转来‘回本’，而非掌握内幕信息。


id: 1813646_0xd0d1001588ffc9cfc0ce74c4d5d4cb98b4c6852c1c37aee3e50ee7c679692f60-410
market_id: 1813646
market_question: Will Trump say "Kharg" or "Island" during Address to the Nation?
condition_id: 0x2010c3c04e78d655317922635679c4dfbd5b7238c2b26382281a6a8ac96a6a03
transaction_hash: 0xd0d1001588ffc9cfc0ce74c4d5d4cb98b4c6852c1c37aee3e50ee7c679692f60-410
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0x510904c9a58f5c5ad799a1b44947077564175e9c
insider_evidence: 交易者 Logan. 在演讲结束 2 小时后精准介入，且对手方均为低质量散户，反映了其对规则理解和文本获取速度的优势。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T19:49:11.779962
market_resolved_at: 2026-04-02T04:23:58.602857
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":1088,"pnl":115114.91319202891,"volume":13412397.343998998,"user_name":"Logan.","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":53607.97896999999,"avg_trade_size":536.0797896999999,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presiden","US forces enter Iran by December 31?","Will Trump say \"Third term\" in March?","Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presi","Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presiden","Will Trump say \"Operation Epic Fury\" during Addres","Will Trump say \"Hormuz\" during Address to the Nati","Will Trump and Melania's remarks not air?","Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the","Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presid"],"large_trades_count":1,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7914.9125,"price":0.25,"title":"US forces enter Iran by December 31?","timestamp":1774918141}]}

reasoning:
交易者利用了严格的规则边界。虽然特朗普在社交媒体上提到了 Kharg Island 导致普通散户买入 Yes，但专业交易者通过核实正式演讲稿确认其并未在限定的‘全国讲话’中提及。交易发生于演讲结束后，是基于事实核实后的套利/收割行为。


id: 1640919_0x48c5ab11e11b8c9f78c8392bab3f2bee62a9cf40a558b5d4f5da163c37c8fe6a-920
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0x48c5ab11e11b8c9f78c8392bab3f2bee62a9cf40a558b5d4f5da163c37c8fe6a-920
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0xcf6087abd66e16b59a122d45bfcdc05d4b7247ce
insider_evidence: 无。交易时间点处于总统重要讲话后的黄金反应期，属于对公开政策信号的重仓跟进。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T19:52:37.168973
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2487061,"pnl":-21757.349499999993,"volume":155853.01,"user_name":"steeplejack","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":10,"total_volume":120287.27549999999,"avg_trade_size":12028.72755,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?","US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","Devils vs. Rangers","US forces enter Iran by April 30?","Hurricanes vs. Blue Jackets","Jets vs. Blackhawks","Senators vs. Panthers","US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?"],"large_trades_count":8,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":30870.0,"price":0.63,"title":"Senators vs. Panthers","timestamp":1774990975},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":16239.999999999998,"price":0.58,"title":"Jets vs. Blackhawks","timestamp":1774991429},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":15660.000000000002,"price":0.54,"title":"Devils vs. Rangers","timestamp":1774991017},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":15400.000000000002,"price":0.55,"title":"Hurricanes vs. Blue Jackets","timestamp":1774991507},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":14193.214,"price":0.35,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","timestamp":1775034057},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10831.698,"price":0.45,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775072663},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7634.6672,"price":0.16,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","timestamp":1775034425},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6688.7002,"price":0.14,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","timestamp":1775033941}]}

reasoning:
交易发生在总统公开讲话近 3 小时后，信息已完全公开化。交易者为长期亏损账户，排名极低，其交易行为属于对公开新闻的迟到反应或方向性博弈，而非利用非公开信息。该账户在相关市场均押注和平方向，符合其一致的交易逻辑，而非针对单一市场的定点打击。


id: 1813646_0xcbfa737750acaee69c858c3f0f7a7e3b9eabefd9369bf995429299e734772605-1099
market_id: 1813646
market_question: Will Trump say "Kharg" or "Island" during Address to the Nation?
condition_id: 0x2010c3c04e78d655317922635679c4dfbd5b7238c2b26382281a6a8ac96a6a03
transaction_hash: 0xcbfa737750acaee69c858c3f0f7a7e3b9eabefd9369bf995429299e734772605-1099
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xf6f458a357a58eec16d767b3a78decda8b373144
insider_evidence: 无。相反，该交易者的操作与‘聪明钱’（Logan.）完全相反，且发生在结果基本公开的后置时段。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T20:26:47.023239
market_resolved_at: 2026-04-02T04:23:58.602857
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2484759,"pnl":-10733.261035480133,"volume":224825.290332,"user_name":"Cookiebetts","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":18,"total_volume":44458.79366599999,"avg_trade_size":2469.932981444444,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US forces enter Iran by March 31?","US forces enter Iran by March 7?","US forces enter Iran by April 30?","US forces enter Iran by March 14?","Bucks vs. Suns","Suns vs. Raptors"],"large_trades_count":2,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9044.479999,"price":0.32818488595649287,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1773246885},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6099.999999,"price":0.5755649324791143,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774149607}]}

reasoning:
该交易发生在演讲结束 3.5 小时后。交易者 Cookiebetts 历史表现极差（亏损超1万美元），且其交易记录显示其具有明显的政治偏好偏见。相比之下，排名 1088 的顶级交易者在更早的时间点精准买入 NO。Cookiebetts 的买入行为更像是对过往新闻（3月30日言论）的误读或延迟反应，而非掌握了内幕信息。


id: 567560_0x95e3285e60ec0a2d569ef5babe8025b3e558961251e691f3497ab1f5ff59acca-1913
market_id: 567560
market_question: Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
condition_id: 0x5ec80dc407457301f282a2b44341947afc700dfaa7923d14c8894e04bc63b03f
transaction_hash: 0x95e3285e60ec0a2d569ef5babe8025b3e558961251e691f3497ab1f5ff59acca-1913
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xbe482cd6e5183be8767f03b48ebc3ff35769683f
insider_evidence: 该交易者是伊朗局势博弈专家，擅长捕捉由于市场恐慌导致的赔率错配。在 0.36 价格买入反映了其认为欧尔班的'实际胜率'（考虑制度护航后）应高于 36% 的民调中位值。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T20:40:43.563637
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:08.846246
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":3339,"pnl":35999.78780716545,"volume":503029.40391799994,"user_name":"0xBE482CD6e5183BE8767f03b48EBc3FF35769683f-1768081000582","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":24,"total_volume":361555.119025,"avg_trade_size":15064.796626041667,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US forces enter Iran by March 31?","US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?","US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","Iran leadership change by April 30?","US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?","Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January ","US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?","Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?"],"large_trades_count":22,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":61120.5688,"price":0.8661529618697846,"title":"Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?","timestamp":1769451925},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":39035.6006,"price":0.8576968200997888,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?","timestamp":1773700741},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":29999.999997,"price":0.7299999999973233,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1773700961},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":28730.5872,"price":0.7146199396527859,"title":"Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?","timestamp":1768082090},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":19927.3924,"price":0.6987539093085989,"title":"Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?","timestamp":1768082090},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":14993.989999000001,"price":0.25753144760246555,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?","timestamp":1768081810},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":11940.7428,"price":0.7628283455512433,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?","timestamp":1769948810},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":11883.498,"price":0.915318522580839,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?","timestamp":1769948818},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10964.399394,"price":0.8599999999952939,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?","timestamp":1773700741},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":10963.330680000001,"price":0.9655340951924669,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?","timestamp":1769948824}]}

reasoning:
交易者具备极强的地缘政治博弈画像，选择在顶级交易者大规模做空时逆势买入。其依据可能并非单一内幕，而是对匈牙利选举体制（非对称性选区、行政资源）优于民调数据的专业判断，或掌握了执政党在最后10天的反击战术动态。


id: 1808970_0xf9ef5d60b6930cc8db1adcdcb2b769ce13c8474d5d09b90dd97296d45164134b-2116
market_id: 1808970
market_question: US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
condition_id: 0xbcacd5a055f5a9ced6f69f122216c073dd6987d08253fc07bbcc168fa5b81d55
transaction_hash: 0xf9ef5d60b6930cc8db1adcdcb2b769ce13c8474d5d09b90dd97296d45164134b-2116
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xd10f60b88b8528db901b0fb7aecc07aa820cf12f
insider_evidence: 无。交易模式高度吻合对已公开地缘政治新闻的延迟反应。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T20:46:40.415628
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:22.926755
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2477315,"pnl":-6524.294668538293,"volume":585975.587072,"user_name":"Extravagance3","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":43922.254485,"avg_trade_size":439.22254484999996,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US forces enter Iran by March 31?","Iran leadership change by March 31?","Will Iran strike Lebanon in March?","Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?","US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","US forces enter Iran by April 30?","Will another country strike Iran by March 31?","Will Iran strike Turkey in March?","Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by Ap","Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by Ma"],"large_trades_count":0,"recent_trades":[]}

reasoning:
该交易发生在主流媒体（WSJ/WP）报道美国考虑夺取浓缩铀的计划之后，属于对公开新闻的反应性交易。交易者历史记录为亏损状态，且排名极低，未表现出任何信息优势或领域专长。其押注方向与市场公认的“聪明钱”完全相反。


id: 1640919_0xe0b9df711c52f8d04b63e348bdb1613bd8ed328405cc07e7a9d53a03e8c5f5b9-1515
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0xe0b9df711c52f8d04b63e348bdb1613bd8ed328405cc07e7a9d53a03e8c5f5b9-1515
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x1f21ccb1ef8876bacb1fe38754f24b3187b68dae
insider_evidence: 1. 交易时机恰逢 4月7日 潜在行动日期在社媒泄露的 12 小时内；2. 高排名大户 TheQuietRisk 在价格下跌中持续扫货，表现出非公开信息支撑的防御性买入特征。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T21:02:42.894192
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
reasoning:
该交易者 (0x1f21) 为未上榜的新钱包，但其 1.4 万美金的单笔投入在传闻爆发初期（4月7日入侵假说流传时）入场，时机敏感。更重要的是，该交易与顶级交易者 TheQuietRisk (#164) 的多轮大额增持方向一致。虽然 0x1f21 可能只是‘跟风鲸鱼’，但整个 Yes 方大户群体的行动表现出对特定‘地面行动泄密’的高度信任。


id: 567560_0x0c24bce1616549a9409cc9634ccb1afe244a53c7bcab72002b3d448ea2aaa27a-2615
market_id: 567560
market_question: Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
condition_id: 0x5ec80dc407457301f282a2b44341947afc700dfaa7923d14c8894e04bc63b03f
transaction_hash: 0x0c24bce1616549a9409cc9634ccb1afe244a53c7bcab72002b3d448ea2aaa27a-2615
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xbe482cd6e5183be8767f03b48ebc3ff35769683f
insider_evidence: 在 40 分钟内连续大额买入，且买入价格从 0.36 推升至 0.38，与市场顶级聪明钱（Smart Money）的方向完全背离。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T21:18:41.115097
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:08.846246
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":3339,"pnl":35999.78780716545,"volume":503029.40391799994,"user_name":"0xBE482CD6e5183BE8767f03b48EBc3FF35769683f-1768081000582","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":25,"total_volume":374982.819024,"avg_trade_size":14999.312760960001,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US forces enter Iran by March 31?","US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?","US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","Iran leadership change by April 30?","Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor ","US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?","Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January ","US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?","Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?"],"large_trades_count":23,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":61120.5688,"price":0.8661529618697846,"title":"Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?","timestamp":1769451925},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":39035.6006,"price":0.8576968200997888,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?","timestamp":1773700741},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":29999.999997,"price":0.7299999999973233,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1773700961},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":28730.5872,"price":0.7146199396527859,"title":"Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?","timestamp":1768082090},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":19927.3924,"price":0.6987539093085989,"title":"Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?","timestamp":1768082090},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":14993.989999000001,"price":0.25753144760246555,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?","timestamp":1768081810},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":13427.699998999999,"price":0.3599999999892759,"title":"Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?","timestamp":1775075971},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":11940.7428,"price":0.7628283455512433,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?","timestamp":1769948810},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":11883.498,"price":0.915318522580839,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?","timestamp":1769948818},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10964.399394,"price":0.8599999999952939,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?","timestamp":1773700741}]}

reasoning:
该交易者排名中等，PnL 稳健，具有明显的政治博弈偏好。在民调数据极大不利且顶级巨鲸（#74, #154）一致看空的情况下，该交易者连续两笔共计约 $2.4 万 USDC 逆市买入 Yes。虽然目前无证据表明其掌握了特定的选举干预内幕，但在大选前 10 天的敏感期，这种逆大势的激进补仓行为具有一定的信息不对称嫌疑，可能是基于对欧尔班执政韧性的深度领域专长或未公开的边际利好判断。


id: 1640919_0x1f42aaaea0a0b898014d959ef4f44a5e6c5075d5eb188a95633261d907e4245b-1878
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0x1f42aaaea0a0b898014d959ef4f44a5e6c5075d5eb188a95633261d907e4245b-1878
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0xbe482cd6e5183be8767f03b48ebc3ff35769683f
insider_evidence: 该交易者近期从‘看多战争’转向‘看多战争但不看多地面行动’，这种仓位微调与白宫内部关于‘只空袭、不占领’的辩论逻辑高度吻合。其交易时间点位于 Axios 报道美伊秘密接触后数小时。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T21:20:18.546237
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":3339,"pnl":35999.78780716545,"volume":503029.40391799994,"user_name":"0xBE482CD6e5183BE8767f03b48EBc3FF35769683f-1768081000582","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":25,"total_volume":374982.819024,"avg_trade_size":14999.312760960001,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US forces enter Iran by March 31?","US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?","US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","Iran leadership change by April 30?","Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor ","US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?","Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January ","US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?","Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?"],"large_trades_count":23,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":61120.5688,"price":0.8661529618697846,"title":"Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?","timestamp":1769451925},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":39035.6006,"price":0.8576968200997888,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?","timestamp":1773700741},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":29999.999997,"price":0.7299999999973233,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1773700961},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":28730.5872,"price":0.7146199396527859,"title":"Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?","timestamp":1768082090},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":19927.3924,"price":0.6987539093085989,"title":"Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?","timestamp":1768082090},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":14993.989999000001,"price":0.25753144760246555,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?","timestamp":1768081810},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":13427.699998999999,"price":0.3599999999892759,"title":"Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?","timestamp":1775075971},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":11940.7428,"price":0.7628283455512433,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?","timestamp":1769948810},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":11883.498,"price":0.915318522580839,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?","timestamp":1769948818},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10964.399394,"price":0.8599999999952939,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?","timestamp":1773700741}]}

reasoning:
交易者是一名长期追踪伊朗局势的垂直领域专业账户。这笔交易精准地发生在特朗普发出‘2-3周内撤军’言论后的窗口期。虽然撤军言论是公开的，但由于伊朗方面的否认，市场赔率极度动摇。该鲸鱼在混乱的舆论中选择了坚定押注‘无地面进入’，体现了对特朗普外交策略的深度解析和对五角大楼潜在冲突的预判。


id: 1706788_0xd8856a8dd86bd0be6b9df57941e3aa21d0ca600bdd18caec3c2a2666407687fb-1028
market_id: 1706788
market_question: US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
condition_id: 0x4c5701bcde0b8fb7d7f48c8e9d20245a6caa58c61a77f981fad98f2bfa0b1bc7
transaction_hash: 0xd8856a8dd86bd0be6b9df57941e3aa21d0ca600bdd18caec3c2a2666407687fb-1028
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x5eebc6775f2818ae0e0c054390d2eb92faa5bc1e
detected_at: 2026-04-01T21:46:47.934419
market_resolved_at: 2026-04-22T08:02:37.297443
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":1107304,"pnl":-0.9992445461129975,"volume":199.888887,"user_name":"0x5eeBc6775F2818Ae0e0C054390d2Eb92fAA5BC1e-1775072712458","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":1,"total_volume":17.989999,"avg_trade_size":17.989999,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?"],"large_trades_count":0,"recent_trades":[]}

reasoning:
该交易发生在 2026 年 4 月 2 日凌晨，交易者在赔率极高（10.4x）的情况下重仓押注 4 月 7 日前达成停火。尽管这笔交易金额巨大且紧随一名排名第 695 位的顶级交易者的看多行为之后，但该交易者本人是一个几乎没有历史记录的新账户（排名 1M+，此前仅有一笔 $17 的交易）。目前的公开信息显示，特朗普宣称伊朗寻求停火，且 Ynet 报道美国的目标是在 4 月 9 日结束战争。市场目前仍高度疑虑（Yes 仅占 8.5%），且 Polymarket 排名前 100 的多位顶级交易者（如 pako, SwissMiss）均重仓持有 No 仓位。这笔交易更像是一个基于公开外交传闻（如复活节和平目标）的高风险投机，而非确凿的内幕信息，因为真正的知情者通常会有更成熟的交易画像或在更早的时间点介入。

insider_evidence:
1. 特朗普在 4 月 1 日通过 Truth Social 公开声称伊朗寻求停火，信息已公开。2. 以色列媒体 Ynet 披露美国目标日期为 4 月 9 日，使得 4 月 7 日达成协议成为逻辑推论之一。3. 对手方包含多位排名 Top 100 的顶级盈亏交易者，形成了强大的共识对峙。


id: 1706788_0xf99bd15973d37df25154d8328d8cd3a8791327173625096badb940663eb3e40b-612
market_id: 1706788
market_question: US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
condition_id: 0x4c5701bcde0b8fb7d7f48c8e9d20245a6caa58c61a77f981fad98f2bfa0b1bc7
transaction_hash: 0xf99bd15973d37df25154d8328d8cd3a8791327173625096badb940663eb3e40b-612
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x4128be7113dbca57dd75e7cd2cd508dd9feddc3c
reasoning: 交易者在路透社传闻与伊朗官方否认的矛盾期精准买入极低价 Yes。其操作与 #695 顶级鲸鱼方向高度一致，且该交易者有该系列市场的成功盈利记录。
insider_evidence: 路透社关于伊朗‘已接受’协议的泄露消息是直接触发点。交易者押注市场对官方否认的过度反应（Overreaction），倾向于掌握了更确切的协议推进时间表。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T22:07:06.847678
market_resolved_at: 2026-04-22T08:02:37.297443
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":11058,"pnl":10021.27100399832,"volume":1723741.2173340004,"user_name":"0x4128Be7113DBca57DD75e7CD2cd508Dd9FEDdC3c-1767821982593","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":67903.36287999999,"avg_trade_size":679.0336287999999,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?","US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?","US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?","US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?","Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026","Will the US next strike Iran on February 15, 2026 ","US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?","US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?","US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?"],"large_trades_count":1,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":5469.481199999999,"price":0.29,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","timestamp":1772751445}]}


id: 1466016_0x7d36006f9392f077f651e9a6329fdf9af4d3f0d18e62986c60eb36e45ed1f6e3-668
market_id: 1466016
market_question: US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
condition_id: 0x80059ff4e694f878c0498f6f3a067ee7ca62dc2fc46251a4287b58355ce47bc5
transaction_hash: 0x7d36006f9392f077f651e9a6329fdf9af4d3f0d18e62986c60eb36e45ed1f6e3-668
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0x000d257d2dc7616feaef4ae0f14600fdf50a758e
insider_evidence: 交易者在多位顶级鲸鱼（#47, #124）重仓看多的压力下，选择在 0.62 价位大规模逆向建仓，这通常基于对伊朗内部立场或美方谈判底线的深入洞察。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T22:11:27.430046
market_resolved_at: 2026-04-22T08:02:23.984962
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":60,"pnl":1557531.0484081784,"volume":63740306.010227986,"user_name":"scottilicious","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-583-178de096-51b5-46b0-b1bf-83d0b80ad3d4.jpg","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":1222002.95869,"avg_trade_size":12220.0295869,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Iran leadership change by March 31?","Starmer out by June 30, 2026?","Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election?","Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of th","Will Sinners win Best Sound at the 98th Academy Aw","Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on Mar","Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by Ma","Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor electio","SAVE Act becomes law by April 30, 2026?","Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio Governor Re"],"large_trades_count":45,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":199959.98858,"price":0.998,"title":"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?","timestamp":1773853899},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":99969.99756999999,"price":0.997,"title":"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?","timestamp":1773856119},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":50323.4848,"price":0.86,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1774977519},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":43785.83284,"price":0.998,"title":"Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election?","timestamp":1773622807},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":39988.0366,"price":0.97,"title":"Netanyahu out by March 31?","timestamp":1773617523},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":39960.0,"price":0.999,"title":"Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?","timestamp":1774967681},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":39852.52268,"price":0.997,"title":"Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?","timestamp":1774625807},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":39520.0,"price":0.988,"title":"Netanyahu out by March 31?","timestamp":1774207345},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":36963.0,"price":0.999,"title":"Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774987163},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":34469.076420000005,"price":0.999,"title":"Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?","timestamp":1774247623}]}

reasoning:
该交易者是平台顶尖鲸鱼，其在特朗普释放利好后逆市买入 No，反映了对复杂外交谈判周期的理性判断。虽然伊朗的否认是公开信息，但顶级鲸鱼在此时点重仓，显示其认为市场仍过高估计了停火的可能性（当前 39.5% 的 Yes 概率被认为偏高）。


id: 1640919_0x9213377269204637839f9f5c35df24b1ec62dfde2d14deb4eb35eb67015d732a-1576
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0x9213377269204637839f9f5c35df24b1ec62dfde2d14deb4eb35eb67015d732a-1576
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0xf2938afd7a299b30b128af2da9f8aa549f7165ee
detected_at: 2026-04-01T22:15:27.424529
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":12023,"pnl":9194.16398232586,"volume":109328.085215,"user_name":"0xf2938afD7a299b30b128aF2da9F8AA549f7165Ee-1774799639099","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":3,"total_volume":258188.84383199998,"avg_trade_size":86062.947944,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US forces enter Iran by March 31?","US forces enter Iran by April 30?"],"large_trades_count":3,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":109109.42384,"price":0.998,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1775081215},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":99969.989993,"price":0.9144035569305292,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774800300},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":49109.429999,"price":0.46802218162990233,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775081481}]}

reasoning:
该交易者表现出极强的领域专注性和‘反共识’倾向。其账户历史仅包含 3 笔交易，全部集中在‘美军进入伊朗’这一极其敏感的地缘政治事件上。该鲸鱼在 3 月 31 日的市场中以 0.91 的高价买入（推测为 No），并在结算前以 0.998 的价格精准套现，几乎吃满了整个波段。当前市场赔率偏向 Yes（54%），主要受社交媒体和媒体关于‘五角大楼准备地面行动’及‘披萨指数异常’等传闻驱动，但官方（国防部长）明确否认了地面部队。该交易者在市场恐慌/看多情绪高涨时逆势买入 No，反映了其对‘非地面战’军事策略的坚定判断或掌握了相关的高层策略风向。

insider_evidence:
1. 极高的操作专注度：该账户只做这一个主题，且均为大额操作；2. 极其精准的胜率：在 3 月 31 日市场中实现了几乎满分的择时退出；3. 逆市场共识决策：在 Twitter 舆论极度看好地面行动（Yes 概率 54%）时，投入近 5 万美金押注 No，这通常是掌握了特定政策逻辑（如‘空袭代地面’）的聪明钱行为。


id: 1640919_0x568bcfe907a8ea1dbf1e96b2e13170e5ef5be12c5feb7e436ed23a6a12221c45-3250
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0x568bcfe907a8ea1dbf1e96b2e13170e5ef5be12c5feb7e436ed23a6a12221c45-3250
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xa7715a969f35fea826258fc7b7ce4c95fdf642d1
detected_at: 2026-04-01T23:02:56.692804
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":86395,"pnl":596.812805825189,"volume":138982.228995,"user_name":"VICTORMAX77","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":24,"total_volume":125518.76377070359,"avg_trade_size":5229.948490445983,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Artemis II launch by April 30?","US forces enter Iran by March 31?","Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET","US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","Netanyahu out by March 31?","US forces enter Iran by March 14?","Netanyahu out by June 30?","Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET"],"large_trades_count":10,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":13123.18406,"price":0.943,"title":"Netanyahu out by March 31?","timestamp":1773534231},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":13111.419996,"price":0.8611550158900927,"title":"Netanyahu out by June 30?","timestamp":1773534603},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":12881.589999,"price":0.9664246469267226,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 14?","timestamp":1773453867},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":12844.552599999999,"price":0.8436277189797562,"title":"Netanyahu out by June 30?","timestamp":1773536435},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":12785.24999,"price":0.918716516195293,"title":"Netanyahu out by March 31?","timestamp":1773473751},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":12785.2481,"price":0.9591974332869937,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 14?","timestamp":1773468319},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":10863.45975,"price":0.995,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1775018357},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":10290.639060000001,"price":0.999,"title":"Will Artemis II launch by April 30?","timestamp":1775082959},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10063.459971,"price":0.9769451720270707,"title":"Will Artemis II launch by April 30?","timestamp":1775082667},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9100.549998,"price":0.9254502351978809,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774849208}]}

reasoning:
虽然交易者 VICTORMAX77 本身排名不高，但该笔交易与市场顶级聪明钱（Top 100 交易者）的超大规模持仓方向高度一致。交易发生在空袭后的关键窗口期，且 WaPo 披露的‘夺取铀矿突击计划’为地面进入提供了明确的战略动机。市场价格 0.53 表明普通散户仍在犹豫，而大户正在密集收集 Yes Token，显示出明确的信息优势特征。

insider_evidence:
1. 排名 #60 和 #164 的巨鲸持有合计超过 $70万 的 Yes 仓位；2. 特朗普公开提到的 4-5 周窗口期与 4 月 30 日截止日期高度吻合；3. Twitter 链上侦探发现有超过 $200万 资金在同一时间点密集涌入 Yes。


id: 1640919_0xa0281688a35e67e78f6970023114778f6c0c5a9dd7a78fc1959fec9f888fb21f-1210
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0xa0281688a35e67e78f6970023114778f6c0c5a9dd7a78fc1959fec9f888fb21f-1210
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x2c3928af89565c352afe8e2a1b25deed77a056dc
detected_at: 2026-04-01T23:47:25.376778
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2942,"pnl":41229.41079839545,"volume":6549855.209150001,"user_name":"Dragontree","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-612552-94563c85-5a0d-4b3e-ae2a-12f69b0b78fb.jpg","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":157721.29544000002,"avg_trade_size":1577.2129544000002,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Trump say \"Crypto\" or \"Bitcoin\" this week? (M","US forces enter Iran by December 31?","Will Trump say \"Bibi\" or \"Netanyahu\" during Addres","Will Trump say \"Migrant Crime\" this week? (March 2","Will Trump say \"Oval Office\" during trophy present","Will Trump visit China by April 30?","US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","US forces enter Iran by March 31?","Will Trump say \"Oil\" or \"Gas\" during the FII PRIOR","Will the DHS shutdown end between March 20-23, 202"],"large_trades_count":10,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":16394.2058,"price":0.86,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774556285},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":15884.6482,"price":0.7999899375807688,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774555961},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":13601.38686,"price":0.986,"title":"Netanyahu out by March 31?","timestamp":1773954283},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10270.14,"price":0.9697960339943342,"title":"Will Trump say \"Crypto\" or \"Bitcoin\" during Address to the Nation?","timestamp":1775063795},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":8600.225079999998,"price":0.998,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1775087135},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":8600.0,"price":0.86,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?","timestamp":1773969267},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":8100.000000000001,"price":0.81,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774546841},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6700.08065,"price":0.9801988536200356,"title":"Will Trump say \"Crypto\" or \"Bitcoin\" during Address to the Nation?","timestamp":1775062563},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6691.1394,"price":0.66,"title":"US forces enter Iran by December 31?","timestamp":1774054935},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5286.93559,"price":0.9899386387850213,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774998605}]}

reasoning:
交易者 Dragontree 是一位专注于地缘政治（特别是美伊冲突和特朗普言论）的专业交易者，其历史 PnL 超过 $41,000。这笔买入发生在 2026 年 4 月 2 日 07:45 UTC，恰好在社交媒体和部分新闻源（如 Twitter 上的 @disclosetv 和 @War_Radar2）爆出美军启动 'Operation Epic Fury'（史诗愤怒行动）以及特种部队可能已进入伊朗境内的消息之后。尽管相关消息已在社交媒体流传，但该市场赔率仍处于 0.5 左右的犹豫阶段，说明主流媒体尚未形成‘共识报道’（满足结算条件的关键）。该交易者此时大额押注 Yes，反映了其对‘特种部队已实际越境（符合 terrestrial entry 条件）’这一非公开或未证实信息的极高确信度。此外，市场 Top 1 (Rank #164) 和 Top 2 (Rank #60) 的顶级鲸鱼均重仓持有多头，形成强烈的‘聪明钱共识集群’。

insider_evidence:
1. 交易时机精准捕捉到 'Operation Epic Fury' 行动开始后的混乱期。2. 该交易者是该垂直领域的专家，且在 3 月 31 日的相关市场中有成功获利记录。3. 与市场排名最靠前的多位顶级鲸鱼（PnL 均在 $70w 以上）方向高度一致，暗示了专业情报圈的共识。


id: 1813642_0x4c0b5845af602e8249a830f764080c607b4d99c846da5f3f29336da6e7403f33-5889
market_id: 1813642
market_question: Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Nation?
condition_id: 0x959c88f990077233716e9e5bd068f2a457d515000c0fcbe57102154258a2ac74
transaction_hash: 0x4c0b5845af602e8249a830f764080c607b4d99c846da5f3f29336da6e7403f33-5889
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x158d421f7be2793324b9d31aef7db000b77f9c64
reasoning: 该交易发生在演讲结束后近7小时，且交易者站在了多位顶级盈利专家的对立面。搜索结果显示演讲涉及相关话题但措辞可能不符合市场精准结算要求。交易者可能在博弈结算争议，而非掌握未公开的内幕信息。
insider_evidence: 无明确内幕证据。相反，顶级交易者集体持有的反向头寸显著削弱了该笔交易的信号可信度。
detected_at: 2026-04-01T23:50:50.710513
market_resolved_at: 2026-04-02T04:23:57.723006
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":27592,"pnl":3328.8677500218328,"volume":237121.767189,"user_name":"degenor","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":65305.98760359146,"avg_trade_size":653.0598760359146,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Italy vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 1.5","Will Kuwait strike Iran by March 31?","Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5","FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 4.5","Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?","Nets vs. Lakers: O/U 219.5","Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?","Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th ","Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple A","AEK vs. NK Celje: O/U 3.5"],"large_trades_count":1,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":7956.625410000001,"price":0.999,"title":"Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?","timestamp":1773627687}]}


id: 1640919_0xccad6ca3b094df5a09d80f7a634ea10a5e697ec74162aba7f3da2c50e85a0b3e-1232
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0xccad6ca3b094df5a09d80f7a634ea10a5e697ec74162aba7f3da2c50e85a0b3e-1232
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x74471a007ddcc488f6d57b5e86dfb35a8d48a16d
detected_at: 2026-04-02T00:01:13.023562
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2495051,"pnl":-74606.41729414219,"volume":13307137.979328,"user_name":"tetrose","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-2739522-d03810e0-d01b-4e53-bef5-827a096c0446.webp","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":148239.36615500005,"avg_trade_size":1482.3936615500006,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US forces enter Iran by March 7?","Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?","Will UK strike Iran by March 31?","France, UK, or Germany military action against Ira","US forces enter Iran by March 31?","Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31","Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of Marc","Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 7","Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of I","Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15"],"large_trades_count":5,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":9900.0066,"price":0.33,"title":"Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?","timestamp":1772743627},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":7055.063300000001,"price":0.3730569775305912,"title":"Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?","timestamp":1773227987},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6900.0,"price":0.23,"title":"Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?","timestamp":1772735663},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":6099.9878,"price":0.61,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1772729761},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6000.0,"price":0.6,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","timestamp":1773421211}]}

reasoning:
虽然该特定交易者 (tetrose) 历史战绩不佳，但该交易属于一个明显的‘资金聚集区间’。社交媒体监测到的 200 万美元新资金流入和 Axios 的特定报道吻合，表明存在关于美军‘决定性打击’计划的非公开或半公开信息正在通过特定渠道扩散。考虑到地面入侵的决策链极短且高度保密，这种规模的协同买入具有中等程度的内幕嫌疑。

insider_evidence:
1. 社交媒体披露多个新钱包在同一时间点累计投入 $2M 押注 Yes；2. Axios 提前披露了五角大楼关于地面部队的秘密计划；3. 该市场 Top 2 看多持仓者均为 Polymarket 全球排名前 200 的顶级盈亏用户。


id: 1394299_0x57b6fb92657a4af5774b4211c3e3c658de8871b9d6061b87f583fcd269fd628b-1848
market_id: 1394299
market_question: US forces enter Iran by December 31?
condition_id: 0xe4b9a52d2bb336ff9d84799b70e72e8e5f4507df881af60f3f4daeb9f541a80e
transaction_hash: 0x57b6fb92657a4af5774b4211c3e3c658de8871b9d6061b87f583fcd269fd628b-1848
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35
insider_evidence: 1. 交易者在 3 月 31 日至 4 月 2 日间的仓位反转。2. 与排名 #60 等其他头部交易者的动作同频。3. 交易时间点处于地面入侵传闻的白热化阶段。
detected_at: 2026-04-02T00:02:49.510093
trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":333606.98526000004,"avg_trade_size":3336.0698526000006,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Electio","US forces enter Iran by December 31?","Will Trump say \"Third term\" in March?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?","Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by Ma","Will a Gulf State carry out military action agains","Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April","Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?","US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","US forces enter Iran by March 31?"],"large_trades_count":15,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":93000.0,"price":0.93,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?","timestamp":1775037227},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":83000.0,"price":0.83,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","timestamp":1775037241},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":11499.9472,"price":0.08,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?","timestamp":1775054819},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":11239.2429,"price":0.57,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775007551},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9094.3028,"price":0.20999769088741044,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","timestamp":1775054837},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8606.7528,"price":0.94,"title":"Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?","timestamp":1775023691},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8291.70999,"price":0.999,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1775061183},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8169.210500000001,"price":0.55,"title":"Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?","timestamp":1775038025},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7767.19503,"price":0.999,"title":"Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?","timestamp":1775023129},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7412.57478,"price":0.989,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1775007699}]}

reasoning:
该交易者是排名第 76 的顶级鲸鱼，具有极高的盈利能力。最强的信号在于其 48 小时内的‘立场 180 度大转弯’——从买入 No 转向重仓买入 Yes。这种行为在顶级交易者中极少见，除非其确信之前的逻辑已被完全证伪。考虑到当时美军已集结并有 4 月 6 日截止日期的传闻，该鲸鱼可能捕捉到了军方行动即将获得最终授权的非公开信号。


id: 1394299_0x6615a8e2564d917a60d2464d663ea90ce3fe2ebda742e2245139406193b8acaa-1675
market_id: 1394299
market_question: US forces enter Iran by December 31?
condition_id: 0xe4b9a52d2bb336ff9d84799b70e72e8e5f4507df881af60f3f4daeb9f541a80e
transaction_hash: 0x6615a8e2564d917a60d2464d663ea90ce3fe2ebda742e2245139406193b8acaa-1675
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35
detected_at: 2026-04-02T00:02:25.627243
trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":333606.98526000004,"avg_trade_size":3336.0698526000006,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Electio","US forces enter Iran by December 31?","Will Trump say \"Third term\" in March?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?","Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by Ma","Will a Gulf State carry out military action agains","Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April","Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?","US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","US forces enter Iran by March 31?"],"large_trades_count":15,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":93000.0,"price":0.93,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?","timestamp":1775037227},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":83000.0,"price":0.83,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","timestamp":1775037241},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":11499.9472,"price":0.08,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?","timestamp":1775054819},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":11239.2429,"price":0.57,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775007551},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9094.3028,"price":0.20999769088741044,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","timestamp":1775054837},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8606.7528,"price":0.94,"title":"Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?","timestamp":1775023691},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8291.70999,"price":0.999,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1775061183},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8169.210500000001,"price":0.55,"title":"Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?","timestamp":1775038025},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7767.19503,"price":0.999,"title":"Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?","timestamp":1775023129},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7412.57478,"price":0.989,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1775007699}]}

reasoning:
交易者 ScottyNooo 是平台 Top 100 的专业地缘政治猎手，拥有极高的 PnL 记录。其在特朗普发表‘误导性’结束战争演讲后，果断从空方转为重仓多方，且与市场其他‘聪明钱’（如 SecondWindCapital）立场高度一致。这种在关键政策节点后的反直觉操作显示其对军事行动的具体落地（如特种部队抢夺核物质）有极强的信息把握。

insider_evidence:
1. 特朗普 4/1 讲话后，该市场不降反升至 0.66。 2. 交易者在 48 小时内完成从 No 到 Yes 的立场大逆转。 3. 多个高排名（#60, #76, #124）交易者在 24 小时内接连发出 BUY Yes 信号。


id: 1394299_0x0070fef43f436f89309f8f1a77a499766b15841818f86191bcfe1f3c4db90edc-4637
market_id: 1394299
market_question: US forces enter Iran by December 31?
condition_id: 0xe4b9a52d2bb336ff9d84799b70e72e8e5f4507df881af60f3f4daeb9f541a80e
transaction_hash: 0x0070fef43f436f89309f8f1a77a499766b15841818f86191bcfe1f3c4db90edc-4637
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x67ea1a9fc49b9ee618f4bb84c199cae6206eae12
insider_evidence: 该交易者在总统讲话前 1 小时内有精准的大额买入记录（历史信号 3），并在讲话后根据市场反应（及潜在的未公开军事动向）进行第二次加仓。多位 Top 100 盈利交易者在同一时段集体站队 Yes 方。
detected_at: 2026-04-02T00:49:31.405151
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":6338,"pnl":17624.39381568151,"volume":744576.7333839999,"user_name":"OddChain","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":242411.1557950001,"avg_trade_size":2424.111557950001,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?","Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of February?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?","US forces enter Iran by December 31?","US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?","Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?","Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair","Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?","US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?"],"large_trades_count":11,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":24999.999998,"price":0.6479396323058417,"title":"US forces enter Iran by December 31?","timestamp":1775059683},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":17022.14536,"price":0.9586322548671768,"title":"Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?","timestamp":1773245963},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":12905.1361,"price":0.7864731757884608,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","timestamp":1774270651},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":11110.999999,"price":0.6415337026561737,"title":"US forces enter Iran by December 31?","timestamp":1774271075},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10230.299997999999,"price":0.7099999999812615,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","timestamp":1773248111},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10118.969998,"price":0.9564752367485296,"title":"Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?","timestamp":1772896433},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":7845.877,"price":0.6453942346290776,"title":"US forces enter Iran by December 31?","timestamp":1774995079},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":7788.527099999999,"price":0.6406766874617495,"title":"US forces enter Iran by December 31?","timestamp":1774995101},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7422.189998,"price":0.6741765787173761,"title":"US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?","timestamp":1771687530},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5688.21,"price":0.66,"title":"US forces enter Iran by December 31?","timestamp":1773872161}]}

reasoning:
交易者 OddChain 准确把握了总统讲话前后的波动，且其加仓逻辑与 Top 60 交易者及媒体报道的『秘密特种部队行动计划』高度吻合。在地缘政治大市场中，这种跨时间点的分批入场通常预示着对特定军事行动（而非宏观态势）的把握。


id: 1816041_0x17c365320171b146a0dff26b4fe2014933d6da04380769973dab2e649ec6c151-810
market_id: 1816041
market_question: Will Trump say "Regime Change" during Address to the Nation?
condition_id: 0x7059202b56c33677ea2df71422506923685c3c5b60c931c8f5bff7460b8b48b4
transaction_hash: 0x17c365320171b146a0dff26b4fe2014933d6da04380769973dab2e649ec6c151-810
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xab811fc324bbf4ccf6ff88a1b1880abfb27f6e6d
reasoning: 交易发生在讲话结束 8 小时后，所有信息已公开。0.48 的价格反映了市场对规则解读的严重分歧。该交易者排名极低且持续亏损，其行为更像是对争议视频片段的个人解读，而非掌握了任何未公开证据。
insider_evidence: 无。搜索显示特朗普在讲话前的采访中使用了该词，但在正式讲话中可能仅使用了不符合规则的变体，导致市场陷入 50/50 的裁定争议。
detected_at: 2026-04-02T00:56:41.056444
market_resolved_at: 2026-04-02T03:53:32.965440
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2476068,"pnl":-5745.172721867655,"volume":204136.135884,"user_name":"0xab811fc324BBf4CCf6fF88a1b1880AbFB27F6E6d-1772896505162","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":32958.87347799999,"avg_trade_size":329.58873477999987,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US forces enter Iran by March 31?","Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?","Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March ","Will Trump say \"Crypto\" or \"Bitcoin\" this week? (M","Will Trump say \"Third term\" in March?","Will Trump say \"Regime Change\" during Address to t","Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Bei","Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel","Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by Mar","Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on Mar"],"large_trades_count":0,"recent_trades":[]}


id: 1813642_0xd5a46eecdd1175aecac9abd964fcac7ffa8d5189057fa6414b0e378be878007a-2345
market_id: 1813642
market_question: Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Nation?
condition_id: 0x959c88f990077233716e9e5bd068f2a457d515000c0fcbe57102154258a2ac74
transaction_hash: 0xd5a46eecdd1175aecac9abd964fcac7ffa8d5189057fa6414b0e378be878007a-2345
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x8f784e05d17bcec0dfdd4993fceef408ef935106
detected_at: 2026-04-02T01:01:08.056173
market_resolved_at: 2026-04-02T04:23:57.723006
resolved_outcome: No
reasoning:
交易发生在事件结束8小时后的高度争议期。市场概率55%反映了裁决的分歧。交易者虽为新地址，但在多名顶级高胜率大户集体看空（No）的情况下，逆势砸入大额资金买入Yes，极大概率是基于对讲话录音细节的精确捕捉或对Polymarket规则中‘包含复合词’条款的深刻理解。这属于‘解读优势型’准内幕交易。

insider_evidence:
特朗普在讲话中确实使用了 'ceasefire agreement'。市场规则第4段明确提到：'Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count'。大户可能在赌 'agreement' 并非复合词，但该交易者在深入分析规则后认为其符合标准，故在裁决前夕进行狙击。


id: 1640919_0x967714dae648c6104f983e29ef0b080c489334512de68ea9e848c08976657df8-768
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0x967714dae648c6104f983e29ef0b080c489334512de68ea9e848c08976657df8-768
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x3801583bca5ce62aa3ee3a2299acefd09190cbe8
detected_at: 2026-04-02T01:04:46.791527
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":3596,"pnl":33231.11842313942,"volume":311974.04921699996,"user_name":"Messiah07","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":70,"total_volume":176756.809306,"avg_trade_size":2525.0972758000003,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March","Next Thai Prime Minister Chosen by March 31?","US forces enter Iran by December 31?","Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?","Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,400 on the final tra","Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?","Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by Ma","US forces enter Iran by March 31?","Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?","T20 World Cup: India vs West Indies"],"large_trades_count":10,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":22686.6963,"price":0.89,"title":"Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?","timestamp":1773834177},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":21942.7572,"price":0.87,"title":"Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?","timestamp":1773546531},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":20039.36096,"price":0.998,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1775091529},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":11215.908000000001,"price":0.88,"title":"Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?","timestamp":1773912815},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":11215.8992,"price":0.88,"title":"Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?","timestamp":1773912445},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":11215.7971,"price":0.7499927847997999,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1773912833},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10800.307499999999,"price":0.75,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1773912615},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":8043.24765,"price":0.997,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?","timestamp":1772338213},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7066.483200000001,"price":0.56,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775091451},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":5393.2714,"price":0.9479758140352419,"title":"Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?","timestamp":1773330623}]}

reasoning:
交易者 Messiah07 并非普通散户，而是长期追踪美伊冲突核心细节（哈尔克岛、地面渗透）的专项鲸鱼。交易时机精准卡在美军 A-10 机群抵达和总统全国演说前夕，反映了其对军事部署节奏的深度掌握。同时，市场前两大赢家均为其同向队友，共识度极高。

insider_evidence:
该交易者与多名 Top 100 鲸鱼在价格回撤至 0.55-0.58 区间时同步大规模建仓，且 Twitter 已有针对‘大规模资金涌入该 outcome’的预警，暗示可能存在针对‘Epic Fury’行动地面阶段启动时间的内幕信息差。


id: 1640919_0x6549e9c8c76ab8a9de47276ccd677a69d93ab66261156ab9711734021c4c2658-2785
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0x6549e9c8c76ab8a9de47276ccd677a69d93ab66261156ab9711734021c4c2658-2785
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xdbedc5ab35d896d3226c6ea5e1708dfc631f10f7
detected_at: 2026-04-02T01:10:56.122571
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":1744,"pnl":72151.93927212342,"volume":1689489.3044800002,"user_name":"bobi13","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":253659.8017261895,"avg_trade_size":2536.598017261895,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US forces enter Iran by March 31?","US forces enter Iran by April 30?","Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET","Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Leb","Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader o","Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?"],"large_trades_count":10,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":19522.0878,"price":0.6806340166953663,"title":"Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?","timestamp":1773831843},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":16757.579999999998,"price":0.6,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774971927},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":16221.0683,"price":0.500012585801071,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775057167},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":12906.443200000002,"price":0.56,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774976389},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":11334.695099999999,"price":0.57,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775021815},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":11249.8724,"price":0.52,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775057067},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8744.0588,"price":0.68,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774806244},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6973.7618999999995,"price":0.57,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775040849},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6115.955,"price":0.58,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775011623},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5515.981199999999,"price":0.57,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775054923}]}

reasoning:
该交易发生在特朗普 4 月 1 日晚间讲话后的关键窗口期。虽然官方尚未确认美军越境，但多个媒体和情报账号在此时段密集释放‘地面行动开始’的信号。交易者 bobi13 的交易节奏与战场流传的突发消息高度同步，且其对手方资质较差，而其同盟（Yes 阵营）包含多位历史表现极佳的顶级鲸鱼，暗示这一群体可能通过专业情报渠道获取了地面部队的初步动向。

insider_evidence:
1. 交易时机处于特朗普军事政策转变的敏感窗口；2. 顶级鲸鱼 (#164) 的历史信号在同一方向产生聚集效应；3. 市场价格 0.61 反映了尚未定论的地面渗透，若特种部队确实已越境，该价格存在明显套利空间。


id: 1517835_0x116861cddc7ea3d1f91c1a2ece1e262845a7395146ecb3632d27f878b4e4d33b-3740
market_id: 1517835
market_question: Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
condition_id: 0xfa59099fbda1e0f0058ed3cbd57e939fe90ab6d9b57d53bd488bcadf75c191d4
transaction_hash: 0x116861cddc7ea3d1f91c1a2ece1e262845a7395146ecb3632d27f878b4e4d33b-3740
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xd4140031e313f8d850740a80d2ee6653c925a4db
insider_evidence: 1. 交易时间点位于重大政策演说后的信息真空期。2. 与市场顶级盈利大户同频操作。3. 该账户具有极高的地缘政治市场活跃度和正向盈亏比。
detected_at: 2026-04-02T01:14:40.802783
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:06:04.812226
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":5736,"pnl":19582.578737044772,"volume":2283022.5941820005,"user_name":"AishahSofey","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-6092245-b9eff6e2-4b91-47d9-8117-cd51d6a80fb8.jpg","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":62107.92730999999,"avg_trade_size":621.0792730999999,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Artemis II launch by April 30?","US forces enter Iran by December 31?","Will Trump say \"Nuclear\" during Address to the Nat","Will a Gulf State carry out military action agains","US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","US forces enter Iran by March 31?","Will Trump say \"Regime Change\" during Address to t","Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March?","US forces enter Iran by April 30?","US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?"],"large_trades_count":1,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7971.8148,"price":0.76,"title":"Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?","timestamp":1775059925}]}

reasoning:
交易者在总统全国讲话后的数小时内入场，时机极其精准。该市场赔率在此时处于分歧剧烈期（58%），但该交易者与多名顶级鲸鱼（如排名 #76 的 ScottyNooo）立场高度一致，且专门从事此类地缘政治市场的博弈。鉴于 4 月 30 日前宣布结束的门槛极高（需要正式官方公告），此类规模的买入极有可能基于对白宫后续行政令发布节奏的内部预期或专家级解读。


id: 1640919_0xac824b816fa9c225ad9a0137b4ce5360b81fa102d0f75a8402cb22ae1eab4e4f-622
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0xac824b816fa9c225ad9a0137b4ce5360b81fa102d0f75a8402cb22ae1eab4e4f-622
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x0af037c59ede5b3b2a6625f23923057d8296d425
detected_at: 2026-04-02T01:17:31.822646
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2161,"pnl":57705.886682529745,"volume":1655912.915186,"user_name":"Protruder","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-6350557-91417a03-e5f9-4341-968d-68d6f8869d76.webp","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":28,"total_volume":1116638.2081661222,"avg_trade_size":39879.936005932934,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Netanyahu out by March 31?","US forces enter Iran by April 30?","Will there be no change in Fed interest rates afte","Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?","Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed ch","Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed c","Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March?","Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3PM ET"],"large_trades_count":21,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":149658.61153,"price":0.9939697207022781,"title":"Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March?","timestamp":1774567247},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":146262.96063,"price":0.999,"title":"Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?","timestamp":1772642283},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":104886.67929,"price":0.9595137976213477,"title":"Netanyahu out by March 31?","timestamp":1773725681},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":104263.79446,"price":0.9736207902775185,"title":"Netanyahu out by March 31?","timestamp":1773894889},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":99743.27096000001,"price":0.9805589569019443,"title":"Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?","timestamp":1774557133},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":99500.0,"price":0.995,"title":"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?","timestamp":1773814071},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":74462.68954,"price":0.991,"title":"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?","timestamp":1773232987},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":51512.5464,"price":0.84,"title":"Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?","timestamp":1774064233},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":47733.4983,"price":0.87,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1775001625},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":47197.5475,"price":0.6499634927382774,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775092277}]}

reasoning:
该交易发生在市场极其敏感的节点，且伴随着 10 分钟内 12% 的赔率剧烈波动。顶级交易者（Rank #60, #164）与当前交易者形成了极强的看多合力。搜索结果显示美军正在寻找失踪铀元素，这为特种部队地面渗透提供了明确的战术理由。当前鲸鱼在 0.65 的高价强推，表明其掌握的信息远比'官方准备中'更具体，极有可能是获悉了美军特种部队已获准或已开始地面越境行动。

insider_evidence:
1. 过去 2 小时内密集出现的 11 笔同方向 BUY Yes 信号；2. 价格在 10 分钟内从 0.58 异常跳升至 0.65；3. 专业地缘政治交易者 Protruder 与顶级聪明钱 TheQuietRisk 同步站队；4. 市场规则对‘特种部队’的定义提供了信息差盈利空间。


id: 1640919_0xfbaa4ce312603bdb166b498b74e5d99534aaa73d0de73a7abc9f694712c8fbe2-1687
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0xfbaa4ce312603bdb166b498b74e5d99534aaa73d0de73a7abc9f694712c8fbe2-1687
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xb1fa1aa03ce4f1f4e259cda433e7fdaf80f91a14
detected_at: 2026-04-02T01:17:12.122806
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":1114,"pnl":112846.63614782154,"volume":6209314.050683001,"user_name":"anas10","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":258713.82655970924,"avg_trade_size":2587.1382655970924,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US forces enter Iran by March 31?","Netanyahu out by April 30?","Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of Marc","Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on March 24?","Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?","Netanyahu out by March 31?","US forces enter Iran by April 30?","Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of Marc","Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of Marc","Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on March 24?"],"large_trades_count":18,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":19388.268,"price":0.6,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775092061},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":14965.110100000002,"price":0.7408474014096047,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774813984},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":13481.392649999998,"price":0.954341639542473,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774905001},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10950.806009999998,"price":0.9557703780120915,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774905035},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":10077.928100000001,"price":0.17,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774604943},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9999.999998000001,"price":0.9538891683394118,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774903749},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9999.999998,"price":0.9507129521210457,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774902065},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":9236.892,"price":0.42,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774990159},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8600.0,"price":0.43,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774988369},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8600.0,"price":0.43,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774983227}]}

reasoning:
交易者 anas10 是该领域的垂类专家（PnL > $112k），展现了极其精准的‘低买高卖’节奏。此次在 0.59 价位大规模回补，正好发生在特朗普发布‘撤军暗示’导致赔率波动的间隙。其交易逻辑显然避开了公开新闻的情绪干扰，转而锚定此前参议员布卢门撒尔（Blumenthal）泄露的‘秘密简报’内容——即美军已处于不可逆转的地面部署路径上。该交易者对军事行动定义（特种部队计入）的理解极深，且与市场排名前 100 的‘聪明钱’（如 Rank #60, #164）立场高度一致。

insider_evidence:
该交易发生在特朗普 4 月 1 日‘撤军演说’引起市场震荡、NO 赔率回升之后。anas10 在此时果断买入 YES，显示其掌握了足以推翻总统公开表态的‘内部现实’（可能是关于‘Epic Fury’行动中特种部队已实质性越境的非公开确认）。搜索结果显示，4 月 2 日凌晨已出现小众媒体报道地面行动开始，而主流分辨率来源尚未确认，这笔交易精准捕捉了这一信息真空期。


id: 1466016_0xe4afc2c678c08f93f3174b746effe5341ab963725b45f9225717118d532ba3e3-3406
market_id: 1466016
market_question: US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
condition_id: 0x80059ff4e694f878c0498f6f3a067ee7ca62dc2fc46251a4287b58355ce47bc5
transaction_hash: 0xe4afc2c678c08f93f3174b746effe5341ab963725b45f9225717118d532ba3e3-3406
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0x94885a3566cd74f28e0346f22a4bf002046ad531
insider_evidence: 无。交易时机与伊朗官方反驳特朗普言论的公开时间窗口吻合。
detected_at: 2026-04-02T01:22:42.536881
market_resolved_at: 2026-04-22T08:02:23.984962
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2599,"pnl":46539.531543361765,"volume":6381255.753106,"user_name":"Kotan.io","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-5735602-84bb02cd-3002-407d-9e50-8d061e3f3e6e.webp","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":407663.9256886033,"avg_trade_size":4076.6392568860333,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Iran leadership change by March 31?","US forces enter Iran by December 31?","US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March","Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by Ma","US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","US forces enter Iran by March 31?","US forces enter Iran by April 30?","Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps af","Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by Ap","Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps aft"],"large_trades_count":28,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":26250.0,"price":0.75,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1773884353},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":20290.8212,"price":0.94,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","timestamp":1773884277},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":19020.0939,"price":0.985,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","timestamp":1774885945},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":16588.3185,"price":0.633144344062382,"title":"US forces enter Iran by December 31?","timestamp":1775068225},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":15639.2801,"price":0.781964005,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1773958763},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":15417.2934,"price":0.73,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1773776635},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":14568.007300000001,"price":0.77,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1773958819},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":13350.0,"price":0.89,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","timestamp":1773670461},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":12121.294600000001,"price":0.6060726089439162,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","timestamp":1775065913},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10862.3437,"price":0.6386852566684404,"title":"US forces enter Iran by December 31?","timestamp":1773420315}]}

reasoning:
交易发生于伊朗多次公开否认停火且战事出现新的升级点（如袭击巴林设施）之后。价格 0.63 表明交易者并未获得显著的价格优势，而是跟随排名前 60 的聪明钱进行趋势交易。其对伊朗市场的长期关注显示了其领域专业性而非内幕信息。


id: 1640919_0xb3fd398b78e074db6fa0f50424bfa1bae33d01afdfc53973f4cb9a362f853ed2-4985
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0xb3fd398b78e074db6fa0f50424bfa1bae33d01afdfc53973f4cb9a362f853ed2-4985
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xb6f52629dce679bcfceef5ffc036cbbd88f9c8ce
insider_evidence: 社交媒体提及五角大楼内部人士在同步 Polymarket 交易；交易时间点精准处于演说后、最后通牒到期前的黎明观察期；体育博弈者突然重仓参与地缘政治。
detected_at: 2026-04-02T01:24:36.660573
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":8586,"pnl":12980.731028999999,"volume":124473.215473,"user_name":"dont-follow-me","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":19,"total_volume":18478.861560119054,"avg_trade_size":972.5716610588976,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Alicante: Edas Butvilas vs Pol Martin Tiffon","Split: Frederico Ferreira Silva vs Daniel Michalsk","Split: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Alexander Vasilev","Sao Paulo: Tomas Barrios vs Thiago Monteiro","BC Dubai vs. Panathinaikos","Bucharest Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Pedro Martinez","Split: Dimitar Kuzmanov vs Nerman Fatic","Naples: Geoffrey Blancaneaux vs Vitaliy Sachko","US Men's Clay Court Championships: Roman Andres Bu"],"large_trades_count":1,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8503.0278,"price":0.4997856271692524,"title":"Split: Frederico Ferreira Silva vs Daniel Michalski","timestamp":1774292881}]}

reasoning:
交易者从体育市场跨行业进入地缘政治市场，且与 4 名中高排名交易者在极短时间内形成买入合力。这种集体行动通常意味着某个封闭的社交圈或私下情报渠道（如 Pentagon 泄露传闻）在特朗普演说后的 Iranian 黎明时分达成了一致。公开新闻虽有冲突，但确切的‘地面进入’时机属于核心军事机密。


id: 1517835_0xc839ab9e5ac70a10bd8b08a63405eb0cb8353746be079cc6f09604c316e35202-2069
market_id: 1517835
market_question: Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
condition_id: 0xfa59099fbda1e0f0058ed3cbd57e939fe90ab6d9b57d53bd488bcadf75c191d4
transaction_hash: 0xc839ab9e5ac70a10bd8b08a63405eb0cb8353746be079cc6f09604c316e35202-2069
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0x8bdbcbbd479206ee1a7bcc90f6febbe10b95b627
insider_evidence: 该交易者以极简的交易记录（仅2笔）进行高额押注，且方向与特朗普目前的公开宣传相反，利用了'撤军时间表不等于正式结束公告'的规则博弈。
detected_at: 2026-04-02T01:28:27.708757
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:06:04.812226
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":33714,"pnl":2599.481890065,"volume":15449.927792,"user_name":"alikmetalikk","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":2,"total_volume":9991.989998000001,"avg_trade_size":4995.9949990000005,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","Trump announces end of military operations against"],"large_trades_count":0,"recent_trades":[]}

reasoning:
交易者 alikmetalikk 在特朗普发表利好言论（Yes 方向）后，精准选择在市场情绪稍显过热时逆势重仓押注 No。考虑到该市场严格的结算条件（要求确认'已结束'而非仅仅是'计划结束'），这种博弈具有较强的专业逻辑。虽然是新账号，但其单一重仓的风格显示了其背后的决策具有极强的目的性，可能捕捉到了军方实际部署（增兵）与特朗普公开言论之间的矛盾。然而，由于对手方（Yes）同样存在顶级聪明钱（#76），目前更倾向于这是一个高水平的观点分歧而非单一内幕。


id: 1640919_0x6de0bca41265eb93fa3426e7bc64e0b794c66106b119fe01005fa9b15121cb1a-1692
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0x6de0bca41265eb93fa3426e7bc64e0b794c66106b119fe01005fa9b15121cb1a-1692
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x5188fa0e8a77e87bc6a58e6781fdfc4e165cc804
detected_at: 2026-04-02T01:31:29.316078
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":415,"pnl":313557.4403898099,"volume":22824264.496591996,"user_name":"AllByMyseIf","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-3063734-5d789c1c-92ea-4bf2-a4f6-9ecc42977b56.png","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":225270.97795,"avg_trade_size":2252.7097795,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with \"Taiwan\" befo","Will Trump talk to MrBeast in March?","US forces enter Iran by December 31?","Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration befo","Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C ","Will Trump say \"Egg\" this week? (March 29)","US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30?","US forces enter Iran by March 31?","US forces enter Iran by April 30?"],"large_trades_count":11,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":30840.568099999997,"price":0.47,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775059963},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":19357.4858,"price":0.41,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774967313},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":19007.4303,"price":0.18348973708669647,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","timestamp":1774390149},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":16048.601400000001,"price":0.53,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775093117},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":14800.0,"price":0.37,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774519927},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":11445.7016,"price":0.46,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775060001},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":9177.658599999999,"price":0.22,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","timestamp":1774384375},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7200.0,"price":0.36,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774538993},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6367.653600000001,"price":0.44,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775072589},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5800.0,"price":0.29,"title":"US forces enter Iran by December 31?","timestamp":1774548883}]}

reasoning:
该交易者 (AllByMyseIf) 排名第 415，PnL 超过 31 万美元，是一位经验丰富的高级玩家。尽管其近期在该市场的操作表现出频繁的波段交易（买入后再卖出），但当前的 $16,048 买入行为是紧随一个极强的‘鲸鱼集群信号’出现的。在过去一小时内（09:02-09:25），该市场爆发了 6 笔总额超过 13 万美元的 BUY Yes 交易，其中包含排名更高的顶级交易者。这种集群性的‘聪明钱’涌入，通常预示着有未完全定价的消息流出或对即将到来的 4 月 6 日通牒截止日期的极度看涨预期。公开新闻显示美军地面部队已抵达中东，且五角大楼正在准备地面突袭。交易者在 0.53 的价位（低于前一小时的 0.60-0.65）买入，显示其利用了价格回调进行大规模补仓，具有明显的信息优势预期。

insider_evidence:
1. 集群信号：该交易是过去 1 小时内第 6 笔异常大额买单，且多笔历史信号来自 Top 200 交易者；2. 时间点：距离川普设定的 4 月 6 日伊朗‘最后通牒’仅剩 4 天，地面部队已集结完毕；3. 社交媒体监测到有历史战绩极佳的‘内幕钱包’在数小时前押注 80 万美元看多地面行动，可能引发了后续专业交易者的跟风。


id: 1640919_0xa0854a6b0a77fd20bb6124bdf46d14eb5e977dfdeaf202a8acf22a5770c1396a-2636
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0xa0854a6b0a77fd20bb6124bdf46d14eb5e977dfdeaf202a8acf22a5770c1396a-2636
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x1686b3e512052ba1ff70f8b48bbe0547be52c3f9
detected_at: 2026-04-02T01:36:19.171924
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":5224,"pnl":21674.890878602113,"volume":202388.145648,"user_name":"contrarycap","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":8,"total_volume":70507.029396,"avg_trade_size":8813.3786745,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier Leagu","Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: ","Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?"],"large_trades_count":4,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":24818.961896,"price":0.2813634374278771,"title":"Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?","timestamp":1773158513},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":14633.699998999999,"price":0.37064636708067245,"title":"Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?","timestamp":1758294012},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9999.999999,"price":0.3031933685430727,"title":"Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?","timestamp":1773167821},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":9575.0154,"price":0.999,"title":"Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score","timestamp":1773180841}]}

reasoning:
该交易者虽非地缘政治核心圈，但其在特朗普讲话后精准捕捉到了82空降师部署这一关键信号。更重要的是，该市场呈现极强的“聪明钱”共识，多位排名Top 200且盈利百万级的交易者在同一方向重仓。该交易属于典型的高胜率共识跟随行为。

insider_evidence:
历史信号显示 #164 (TheQuietRisk) 等顶级专家在48小时内持续在0.58-0.65区间扫货。虽然特朗普公开声称战争将结束，但实际军事部署（3-4万地面部队）指向了明确的地面越境意图，这种‘嘴上撤退，脚下冲锋’的动态为知情者提供了巨大的赔率空间。


id: 567560_0xd52c4331d4ee47e0cfefce145752f676f36cc90fc2cabdedbe5bf10ffd2fd5db-3135
market_id: 567560
market_question: Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
condition_id: 0x5ec80dc407457301f282a2b44341947afc700dfaa7923d14c8894e04bc63b03f
transaction_hash: 0xd52c4331d4ee47e0cfefce145752f676f36cc90fc2cabdedbe5bf10ffd2fd5db-3135
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0x35417b3d09d7a0991f75d7cc95162a6e34d7462e
insider_evidence: 该市场近期出现了多笔顶级鲸鱼（排名 Top 100 以内）的一致看空性重仓，总金额超过 10 万美金，暗示可能存在未完全公开的内部民调或体制内倒戈的可靠情报。
detected_at: 2026-04-02T01:43:23.518289
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:08.846246
resolved_outcome: No
trader_history_json:
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reasoning:
交易者 Casdifer 是该领域的老手。虽然该交易发生在公开民调 Magyar 领先的大背景下，但其买入时机精准卡在匈牙利政府因赔率不利而‘禁言’Polymarket 的舆论发酵期。这表明交易者可能具备极强的数据分析能力或获取了匈牙利国内最新的选情动态（Local Alpha）。


