# signals

id: 1517835_0x66767a00d6d9af52be6c42733ff5fb4341a7955d7ec42362e8ba7486f2e320f6-1260
market_id: 1517835
market_question: Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
condition_id: 0xfa59099fbda1e0f0058ed3cbd57e939fe90ab6d9b57d53bd488bcadf75c191d4
transaction_hash: 0x66767a00d6d9af52be6c42733ff5fb4341a7955d7ec42362e8ba7486f2e320f6-1260
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xa42dcbd880f9b32ad8ea06ef78d3323295f12e9a
insider_evidence: 无。交易模式更符合对特朗普‘2-3周结束战斗’这一公开承诺的信任投票，尤其是在价格从 0.58 回落至 0.48 之后的操作。
detected_at: 2026-04-02T01:56:31.064501
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:06:04.812226
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":5733,"pnl":19709.410662665683,"volume":1068846.023297,"user_name":"0xA42dcbD880F9b32aD8EA06eF78d3323295f12E9A-1748116078263","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":162479.8721139999,"avg_trade_size":1624.798721139999,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?","Iran coup attempt by June 30?","Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?","Will Diplo run the 5k in under 22 minutes?","US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","US forces enter Iran by April 30?","Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February?","Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in February?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?","Trump announces end of military operations against"],"large_trades_count":5,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":10104.2576,"price":0.8237594070779217,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","timestamp":1774269075},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7942.65918,"price":0.7622294156598178,"title":"Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in February?","timestamp":1770326173},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":7436.60145,"price":0.7136648129132559,"title":"Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in February?","timestamp":1770331181},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6479.899998999999,"price":0.5393405154754847,"title":"Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?","timestamp":1773240935},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":5620.8317,"price":0.37472211333333333,"title":"Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?","timestamp":1773332493}]}

reasoning:
该交易发生在特朗普全国演说之后，属于对公开信息的后续解读。交易者虽然是该市场的活跃参与者，但其历史操作显示其存在止损和反复，不符合‘掌握绝对内幕’的特征。0.48 的价格低于昨日最高点，显示其在利用市场对伊朗强硬态度的恐惧进行逆向押注。


id: 1611267_0xdcbd58b69ced272837f65ca7591404a2b0dfd52073a6c597fe9d8acc36a2e25d-1130
market_id: 1611267
market_question: Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
condition_id: 0xa78ecba9c4273564cce4b810db46bb36cc35db9cd52fc4e067c77f85af1c1048
transaction_hash: 0xdcbd58b69ced272837f65ca7591404a2b0dfd52073a6c597fe9d8acc36a2e25d-1130
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x188e84eb9a9ecd72f90f55b9d9cc11a7de8770d8
insider_evidence: 交易发生在 i24 News 披露‘地面行动蓝图’的同日，且交易者通过卖出‘停火’头寸预判了局势的进一步升级，显示出其对军事动态的深度研判而非盲目跟风。
detected_at: 2026-04-02T02:43:53.333750
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:06:10.164188
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":4788,"pnl":23786.926225717052,"volume":329009.070769,"user_name":"fwfwefweg","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":126936.5250460624,"avg_trade_size":1269.3652504606239,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by March 31?","US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March","Valorant: REJECT vs Crest Gaming Zst (BO3) - VCL J","Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by Ma","Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?","California Baptist Lancers vs. Kansas Jayhawks: O/","US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","US forces enter Iran by March 31?","Alcaraz vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 21.5","US forces enter Iran by April 30?"],"large_trades_count":5,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":13660.546400000001,"price":0.46,"title":"Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?","timestamp":1775045789},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":9974.9801,"price":0.7574292836792836,"title":"Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?","timestamp":1775045821},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":5770.1616,"price":0.8153112579038468,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","timestamp":1774878885},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":5084.4203,"price":0.8902106459271503,"title":"US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?","timestamp":1774279815},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":5048.01741,"price":0.9967100409107782,"title":"Alcaraz vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 21.5","timestamp":1774063247}]}

reasoning:
该交易者是地缘政治市场的专业参与者，其交易逻辑（做空停火、做多夺岛）在战略上高度一致。交易时机精准捕捉到了五角大楼关于地面行动的媒体泄密。更重要的是，他在对抗一个历史表现极差（PnL -$4.6M）的对手盘，这增加了其信号的相对准确性。


id: 1466016_0x3bd3cb72b7971f24d1345efc7bed79589be6203bc92ff8d14fa96140e0b1dff3-748
market_id: 1466016
market_question: US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
condition_id: 0x80059ff4e694f878c0498f6f3a067ee7ca62dc2fc46251a4287b58355ce47bc5
transaction_hash: 0x3bd3cb72b7971f24d1345efc7bed79589be6203bc92ff8d14fa96140e0b1dff3-748
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0xe3e0c1acc254f1881b55e624704edd71ed46167e
insider_evidence: 该交易紧随排名 #60 的大户入场，且与其此前在类似市场的成功模式（看空短期和平协议）高度一致。
detected_at: 2026-04-02T03:04:01.771457
market_resolved_at: 2026-04-22T08:02:23.984962
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":9668,"pnl":11493.771141927184,"volume":304593.391362,"user_name":"fbmt21","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":35,"total_volume":109123.65949800004,"avg_trade_size":3117.818842800001,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?","Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?","Will Celta Vigo vs. Girona end in a draw?","US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?","South Korea First Lady Keon-hee arrested by August","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?","Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-12-28?","Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?"],"large_trades_count":7,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":21039.077520000003,"price":0.998,"title":"Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?","timestamp":1775077675},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":13965.67224,"price":0.9975480171428571,"title":"Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?","timestamp":1755317690},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10999.999999000001,"price":0.5635835675450825,"title":"Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?","timestamp":1774010129},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9999.999980999999,"price":0.9738524895869323,"title":"US government shutdown by October 1?","timestamp":1759282425},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":9956.09423,"price":0.9695772435869344,"title":"US government shutdown by October 1?","timestamp":1759282651},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":5708.1444,"price":0.994,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?","timestamp":1772731475},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5699.999999,"price":0.812617195580685,"title":"Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?","timestamp":1772731713}]}

reasoning:
交易者是一名长期跟踪美伊冲突的‘老手’，此前有多次在该领域成功获利的记录。虽然其买入逻辑主要基于对公开新闻（伊朗否认停火及双方极端条件）的快速反应，但其入场时机精准卡在市场信心从‘停火预期’转向‘冲突持续’的拐点。相比于内幕信息，这更像是一种基于专业垂直领域的‘数据处理速度优势’。


id: 567560_0x5d4dde67459c244a8e47a2f63aaab558a3c96c22aa79ec3376d7f38bb2dba583-4796
market_id: 567560
market_question: Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
condition_id: 0x5ec80dc407457301f282a2b44341947afc700dfaa7923d14c8894e04bc63b03f
transaction_hash: 0x5d4dde67459c244a8e47a2f63aaab558a3c96c22aa79ec3376d7f38bb2dba583-4796
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x44c1dfe43260c94ed4f1d00de2e1f80fb113ebc1
insider_evidence: 1. 排名#47的顶级胜率支持；2. 针对反对派领袖Magyar的俄罗斯背景黑料（性丑闻视频传闻）正在发酵，且交易者在传闻高潮期入场；3. 市场存在顶级交易者之间的直接对赌，信号强度高。
detected_at: 2026-04-02T04:26:11.191044
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:08.846246
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":47,"pnl":2003414.6920691524,"volume":201063113.38898396,"user_name":"aenews2","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-154436-a84dabd0-06ee-40d3-be95-e454283cdfc0.jpg","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":647427.6055300002,"avg_trade_size":6474.276055300002,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Trump say \"Third term\" in March?","Will Olivia Rodrigo announce a new album by March ","Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on Mar","Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Isr","Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after","Will Trump say \"Hormuz\" during Address to the Nati","Will Trump say \"Nancy\" or \"Pelosi\" this week? (Mar","Will \"Hoppers\" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 1","US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the "],"large_trades_count":21,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":154803.74130000002,"price":0.999,"title":"Netanyahu out by March 31?","timestamp":1775017861},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":104974.90793,"price":0.9917544525302775,"title":"Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 18, 2026?","timestamp":1773989131},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":72062.70576,"price":0.998,"title":"Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?","timestamp":1774331183},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":33511.793789999996,"price":0.993,"title":"Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?","timestamp":1774505045},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":26928.20566,"price":0.998,"title":"Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 18, 2026?","timestamp":1773995243},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":22126.77992,"price":0.997,"title":"Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?","timestamp":1774331147},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":21319.200050000003,"price":0.994263650651519,"title":"Will Trump say \"Third term\" in March?","timestamp":1775077249},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":17898.307,"price":0.27267735378617086,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","timestamp":1774584961},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":14054.9115,"price":0.994,"title":"Netanyahu out by March 31?","timestamp":1774777406},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":13264.260999999999,"price":0.95,"title":"Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?","timestamp":1774124521}]}

reasoning:
交易者为全站排名前50的顶级盈利者，在民调显示欧尔班落后20%的极端不利情况下，逆势重仓买入Yes。这反映了交易者可能掌握了关于匈牙利选举机制漏洞、近期针对反对派的特定抹黑行动效果、或潜在政府干预措施的非公开评估。该价格(0.36)极具风险补偿性，且交易时机精准处于大选冲刺阶段。


id: 665374_0x9a7dbad4cac4ad50e6e65a654666ddf52a72af9cba18860bf68cf417a5170183-2211
market_id: 665374
market_question: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
condition_id: 0x5db999fad322cea2914535aae5517060c3f80ad6d8c0231cde2124a434d16846
transaction_hash: 0x9a7dbad4cac4ad50e6e65a654666ddf52a72af9cba18860bf68cf417a5170183-2211
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0xa8948e141de09e8ed204681e4beb4d2473075324
insider_evidence: 无明确内幕证据。但该交易者在所有美伊相关市场的高频操作显示其拥有一套专门的军事政治评估模型，极大概率是基于逻辑分析而非内幕信息。
detected_at: 2026-04-02T06:25:18.058129
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":3350,"pnl":36048.37578602891,"volume":523390.18232499994,"user_name":"rkrnru","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":91,"total_volume":455426.004604,"avg_trade_size":5004.6813692747255,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Lee Jae-myung win 55-60% of the vote in the S","Will Lee Jae-myung win 50-55% of the vote in the S","Will the Democratic Party control the House after ","Will the Republican Party control the House after ","Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korea","Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president o","Will Lee Jun-seok win 3rd place in the South Korea","Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?","Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?","Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?"],"large_trades_count":30,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":31947.60078,"price":0.9851990337848423,"title":"Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%?","timestamp":1762329845},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":27883.79045,"price":0.995,"title":"Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?","timestamp":1773189103},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":27061.599994,"price":0.9656610521899157,"title":"Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?","timestamp":1772873567},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":20741.809996,"price":0.6396351772174235,"title":"Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%?","timestamp":1762310913},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":20741.80326,"price":0.998,"title":"Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?","timestamp":1762310875},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":15652.056199999999,"price":0.979,"title":"Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?","timestamp":1751159816},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":15646.019996999998,"price":0.9240085862131988,"title":"Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2025?","timestamp":1749234720},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":15362.225399999998,"price":0.9072487533042457,"title":"Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2025?","timestamp":1749368847},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":15028.54624,"price":0.9900084610104465,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?","timestamp":1751125344},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":15028.539998,"price":0.9399999999712281,"title":"Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?","timestamp":1751125412}]}

reasoning:
交易者在特朗普发表'2-3周猛烈打击'讲话后精准买入 No。这一决策显然是基于对'空袭(Strike) vs 入侵(Invasion)'定义的深度理解。特朗普的措辞强调'打击'和'完成'，暗示战争将停留在远程摧毁阶段。交易者利用了市场对地面入侵传闻（Good Friday 谣言）的恐惧情绪带来的溢价，与顶级鲸鱼（ImJustKen）站在同一阵营。


id: 1640919_0x0a1f9986a61a40465a7a88b28043519517d3f60afa904269b2b2dfd1b23d9612-1299
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0x0a1f9986a61a40465a7a88b28043519517d3f60afa904269b2b2dfd1b23d9612-1299
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xe1b4cba58a3076696c2fc34c0f6da01a76f5c074
insider_evidence: 无直接证据显示该特定账号拥有内部信息。其买入行为滞后于该市场真正的‘聪明钱’（排名 Top 200 的鲸鱼们早在 0.55 左右已重仓布局）。
detected_at: 2026-04-02T06:43:32.986076
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2456475,"pnl":-2845.62737877959,"volume":62016.30019200001,"user_name":"Devinequicest","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":10821.564171913067,"avg_trade_size":108.21564171913067,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET","Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET","Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET","Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET","Solana Up or Down - March 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET","Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET","Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET","Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET","Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET","Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET"],"large_trades_count":0,"recent_trades":[]}

reasoning:
该交易者历史表现极差且为散户行为模式。其交易规模虽大，但更像是基于公开的‘Operation Epic Fury’军事行动和特朗普讲话后的情绪化博弈。此时市场已将大部分战争升级预期定价（0.62），交易者并无明显的价格优势。


id: 1796475_0x75829864b97c4cd5b791e741ca610677fd737f200f41c8d4cf4d32a758f97d7a-1624
market_id: 1796475
market_question: Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?
condition_id: 0x00cf5f4a419743e3bbaea3d01537c895ecfd8edba5e539967fe662573de44f23
transaction_hash: 0x75829864b97c4cd5b791e741ca610677fd737f200f41c8d4cf4d32a758f97d7a-1624
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0xb4f2592e67c333e73c923547cfe05e768180e5fa
insider_evidence: 该交易者是 No 方第一大户，且近期频繁操作类似的高难度地缘政治市场。在 4 月 1 日伊朗进行大规模导弹袭击后，他选择在 4 月 2 日押注也门战场保持沉默，显示其对以色列军事优先级的深刻理解。
detected_at: 2026-04-02T08:04:30.511604
market_resolved_at: 2026-04-22T08:02:45.132677
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":3229,"pnl":37295.24401314108,"volume":534523.64279,"user_name":"M2sx92kljs42","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":97653.93642599991,"avg_trade_size":976.5393642599992,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?","Will Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia o","Prince Andrew charged by March 31?","Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?","France, UK, or Germany military action against Ira","Will Iran strike Dimona by April 30?","Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?","Will Iran strike Dimona by March 31?","US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","Will Israel annex any territory by June 30?"],"large_trades_count":3,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5586.999999,"price":0.83,"title":"US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?","timestamp":1775050193},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5043.999998,"price":0.7799999998917526,"title":"Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?","timestamp":1775057969},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5030.999999,"price":0.6590405333935742,"title":"US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?","timestamp":1775037417}]}

reasoning:
该交易者是地缘政治市场的资深玩家，拥有较高的历史胜率和 PnL。在市场普遍预期以色列会针对胡塞武装 3 月末的袭击进行报复时，他逆势重仓买入 No，成为最大空头。考虑到 Polymarket 严苛的‘拦截不计入’规则，他可能掌握了关于以色列防御成功率或内阁暂时搁置也门打击计划的非公开研判。


id: 665374_0x5d9560859aff559e3a5a9bbbbcf57c6729dc328a61070e08cd67d3f4b5d55e33-904
market_id: 665374
market_question: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
condition_id: 0x5db999fad322cea2914535aae5517060c3f80ad6d8c0231cde2124a434d16846
transaction_hash: 0x5d9560859aff559e3a5a9bbbbcf57c6729dc328a61070e08cd67d3f4b5d55e33-904
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x80a0da00fbdc8440b0ef601341f14c3e24795708
insider_evidence: 针对特定的‘Operation Epic Fury’行动节点，在海空打击已公开后，精准押注地面入侵（Invasion）这一尚未被市场定价的分支结果。
detected_at: 2026-04-02T08:24:39.597405
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":765,"pnl":173604.6714302789,"volume":4197467.832094999,"user_name":"de5nuts","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-580933-9eb9710d-f92e-4405-a610-22700678a943.jpg","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":232679.5346929999,"avg_trade_size":2326.795346929999,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March","US forces enter Iran by March 7?","US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by Mar","US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March","Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?","US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April","Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?","US forces enter Iran by March 31?","Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of Marc","Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?"],"large_trades_count":13,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":26808.68518,"price":0.998,"title":"Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?","timestamp":1773147389},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":12467.855679999999,"price":0.848,"title":"Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?","timestamp":1774208331},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9135.9727,"price":0.8330458969905032,"title":"US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?","timestamp":1774859702},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7456.770700000001,"price":0.9738107377133746,"title":"Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?","timestamp":1772817277},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":6750.0,"price":0.15,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774683209},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6660.0,"price":0.74,"title":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?","timestamp":1774093109},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":5920.6554,"price":0.69,"title":"Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?","timestamp":1772747745},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5860.69957,"price":0.9389137407882089,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774866108},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":5775.976199999999,"price":0.69,"title":"Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?","timestamp":1772747967},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5624.29348,"price":0.983,"title":"US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?","timestamp":1774791936}]}

reasoning:
交易者 de5nuts 是该领域的长期获利者且持仓逻辑严密。在白宫公开否认地面行动但军方部署显示‘已就绪’的矛盾时刻，其通过 $5,000 的买入行为对地面入侵做出了定向选择，具有显著的专业洞察力。然而，由于该市场涉及最高层政治决策，且顶级鲸鱼在反向对峙，不排除是基于专家分析而非单一内幕。


id: 567560_0xbbe27881e1bd6749c39f4054897ca157aafcae3e0b1e3b4440fc0eaab1a61c93-2258
market_id: 567560
market_question: Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
condition_id: 0x5ec80dc407457301f282a2b44341947afc700dfaa7923d14c8894e04bc63b03f
transaction_hash: 0xbbe27881e1bd6749c39f4054897ca157aafcae3e0b1e3b4440fc0eaab1a61c93-2258
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0xc58351a51d9a4db0ad7c39eb9d794ce3793dbd46
detected_at: 2026-04-02T08:30:50.818257
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:08.846246
resolved_outcome: No
trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":1,"total_volume":19.999997999999998,"avg_trade_size":19.999997999999998,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor "],"large_trades_count":0,"recent_trades":[]}

reasoning:
交易者在距离大选仅10天时，顶着匈牙利复杂的议会制和选区划分（杰利蝾螈）阻力，重仓押注执政16年的强人下台。虽然民调大幅转向是公开信息，但如此规模的‘No’押注暗示交易者相信民意已突破体制防线的‘临界点’。

insider_evidence:
交易时机紧随 Medián 发布的高可信度‘炸弹民调’（Tisza 党 55% vs Fidesz 35%）之后。此外，匈牙利政府近期因 Polymarket 出现欧尔班胜率崩盘而封锁该网站，反向证明了市场信号的杀伤力。


id: 567560_0x581ddd69e414a1813b1a95233793090afc4e9168f1807ae766a54b4129e56ff2-1477
market_id: 567560
market_question: Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
condition_id: 0x5ec80dc407457301f282a2b44341947afc700dfaa7923d14c8894e04bc63b03f
transaction_hash: 0x581ddd69e414a1813b1a95233793090afc4e9168f1807ae766a54b4129e56ff2-1477
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0xe5c215ac428d4143f9ebc817c9ac6e717a2e2ab0
insider_evidence: 无。交易发生在多份显示欧尔班支持率下滑的公开新闻发布之后。
detected_at: 2026-04-02T09:22:25.795439
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:08.846246
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2494384,"pnl":-148734.8190632916,"volume":6108645.238252,"user_name":"dwFqcd4Z","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":623482.1851200002,"avg_trade_size":6234.821851200001,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31?","Trump out as President before 2027?","Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?","US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?","Trump declares election interference national emer","Ukraine election called by March 31, 2026?","Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the","US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?","Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?"],"large_trades_count":39,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":53784.030999999995,"price":0.7,"title":"Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?","timestamp":1775068223},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":30013.098799999996,"price":0.82,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","timestamp":1772234609},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":24978.3495,"price":0.6883280047309832,"title":"Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?","timestamp":1775068215},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":21801.83094,"price":0.974,"title":"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?","timestamp":1772194277},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":21779.44713,"price":0.973,"title":"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?","timestamp":1772234701},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":19334.4744,"price":0.8390788499511772,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","timestamp":1772215639},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":18548.7288,"price":0.7571564886430989,"title":"Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay","timestamp":1770752559},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":18200.0,"price":0.91,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","timestamp":1772142930},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":17767.703,"price":0.85,"title":"Trump out as President before 2027?","timestamp":1770752325},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":17413.44,"price":0.88,"title":"US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?","timestamp":1772117400}]}

reasoning:
该交易者历史 PnL 严重亏损，且交易价格完全基于目前已公开的 Medián 和 Republikon 民调（显示 TISZA 领先）。他在多个匈牙利相关市场同步买入，属于典型的方向性博弈，无迹象表明其拥有非公开的政府内部数据。


id: 567560_0xb4de8c23879900e642873e29827593c7f3c23eb318298389c803dfa454fd09f0-1099
market_id: 567560
market_question: Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
condition_id: 0x5ec80dc407457301f282a2b44341947afc700dfaa7923d14c8894e04bc63b03f
transaction_hash: 0xb4de8c23879900e642873e29827593c7f3c23eb318298389c803dfa454fd09f0-1099
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0xe5c215ac428d4143f9ebc817c9ac6e717a2e2ab0
insider_evidence: 无。交易发生在多份公开民调显示欧尔班支持率大幅下滑之后，属于对公开信息的跟随。
detected_at: 2026-04-02T09:27:06.965170
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:08.846246
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2494384,"pnl":-148734.8190632916,"volume":6108645.238252,"user_name":"dwFqcd4Z","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":623482.1851200002,"avg_trade_size":6234.821851200001,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31?","Trump out as President before 2027?","Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?","US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?","Trump declares election interference national emer","Ukraine election called by March 31, 2026?","Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the","US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?","Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?"],"large_trades_count":39,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":53784.030999999995,"price":0.7,"title":"Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?","timestamp":1775068223},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":30013.098799999996,"price":0.82,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","timestamp":1772234609},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":24978.3495,"price":0.6883280047309832,"title":"Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?","timestamp":1775068215},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":21801.83094,"price":0.974,"title":"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?","timestamp":1772194277},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":21779.44713,"price":0.973,"title":"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?","timestamp":1772234701},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":19334.4744,"price":0.8390788499511772,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","timestamp":1772215639},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":18548.7288,"price":0.7571564886430989,"title":"Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay","timestamp":1770752559},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":18200.0,"price":0.91,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","timestamp":1772142930},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":17767.703,"price":0.85,"title":"Trump out as President before 2027?","timestamp":1770752325},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":17413.44,"price":0.88,"title":"US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?","timestamp":1772117400}]}

reasoning:
交易者虽投入金额较大，但其历史 PnL 巨亏 (-$148k)，且交易方向与当前压倒性的公开民调 (TISZA 领先 23%) 完全一致。此交易更像是情绪化的补仓行为，而非掌握了未公开的选举内幕。相反，排名 #47 的高盈利交易者正在反向买入 Yes，暗示选举可能存在公开民调未覆盖的制度性变数。


id: 1640919_0x44c066b0f6715f8aaed2075bc9edc9540c2a1d48cb9b87f3c3c6bd268ad33e4f-2074
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0x44c066b0f6715f8aaed2075bc9edc9540c2a1d48cb9b87f3c3c6bd268ad33e4f-2074
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x8ccedcdd40c9623a524c2e734879fc397b865c11
detected_at: 2026-04-02T09:33:18.335877
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":4062,"pnl":29075.48579496943,"volume":284665.50457399996,"user_name":"frostnovae","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":66,"total_volume":191430.01153500014,"avg_trade_size":2900.4547202272747,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?","North Korea x South Korea military clash by Decemb","Will Grok have a MacOS desktop app live by August ","Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California in 2025?","Netanyahu out by 2025?","Will Apple release a new product line in 2025?","Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?","Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by Ma","Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?"],"large_trades_count":12,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":19999.999997000003,"price":0.8389881421968733,"title":"Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?","timestamp":1775053385},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":12810.157019999999,"price":0.999,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1775004875},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10000.0,"price":0.2815909890883492,"title":"Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?","timestamp":1773633439},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9999.999999,"price":0.5094998404002958,"title":"Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?","timestamp":1773633419},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9999.999998000001,"price":0.8774606901493498,"title":"Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?","timestamp":1773633479},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9999.999998,"price":0.6667092630770715,"title":"Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?","timestamp":1775053361},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9999.999998,"price":0.73999999998964,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1773911395},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9999.999998,"price":0.6668885248737451,"title":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?","timestamp":1773633661},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9999.999998,"price":0.6670220267870451,"title":"Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?","timestamp":1773632291},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9999.999998,"price":0.77984958957363,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1772430171}]}

reasoning:
该交易者并非顶级排名，但其行为具有高度针对性，在3月底博弈失败后于4月2日显著加大仓位，与五角大楼部署地面部队的消息高度共振。更重要的是，该市场目前被多位百万级PnL的顶级交易者（聪明钱）联手控盘看多。考虑到军事行动的突发性和隐蔽性，这种规模的资金集体押注 60% 以上概率的“小概率动作”（地面入境在空袭背景下并非默认选项），具有显著的知情交易特征。

insider_evidence:
1. 过去24小时内出现至少 10 笔 $10k-$47k 的连续 Yes 买入；2. 顶级交易者 TheQuietRisk 和 SecondWindCapital 重仓押注；3. 交易时机位于特朗普模糊表态与五角大楼地面部署传闻的交汇点。


id: 1484894_0x0bc2c6aaf330fe63f053b79d616a61eb3231fff1077dadabe4494d7de8b0a4e5-3670
market_id: 1484894
market_question: US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
condition_id: 0xa9937410f8aae98cc6440a7480ad832be5a1a998afcf5a6e77c6f5aa4c0f259f
transaction_hash: 0x0bc2c6aaf330fe63f053b79d616a61eb3231fff1077dadabe4494d7de8b0a4e5-3670
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0x8ccedcdd40c9623a524c2e734879fc397b865c11
reasoning: 交易发生时，伊朗否认停火并重启导弹袭击的消息已公开。该交易者更像是一个敏锐的‘现实主义者’，利用特朗普虚假利好带来的赔率空间（当时 Yes 仍有约 50% 概率）进行反向押注。
insider_evidence: 该交易者的近期历史显示其在多空之间频繁切换，更符合宏观波段交易风格，而非掌握核心停火条件的内部知情人士。最大的支撑信号是 Top 93 鲸鱼也持有 No 仓位，暗示这是精英交易者的集体共识修正。
detected_at: 2026-04-02T09:39:49.767820
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:12.840796
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":4062,"pnl":29075.48579496943,"volume":284665.50457399996,"user_name":"frostnovae","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":69,"total_volume":236430.0115330002,"avg_trade_size":3426.521906275365,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?","North Korea x South Korea military clash by Decemb","Will Grok have a MacOS desktop app live by August ","Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California in 2025?","Netanyahu out by 2025?","Will Apple release a new product line in 2025?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?","Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?","Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by Ma"],"large_trades_count":15,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":29999.999997999996,"price":0.622044441403869,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775122379},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":19999.999997000003,"price":0.8389881421968733,"title":"Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?","timestamp":1775053385},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":12810.157019999999,"price":0.999,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1775004875},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10000.0,"price":0.7392256020438109,"title":"Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?","timestamp":1775122251},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10000.0,"price":0.2815909890883492,"title":"Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?","timestamp":1773633439},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9999.999999,"price":0.5094998404002958,"title":"Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?","timestamp":1773633419},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9999.999998000001,"price":0.8774606901493498,"title":"Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?","timestamp":1773633479},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9999.999998,"price":0.6667092630770715,"title":"Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?","timestamp":1775053361},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9999.999998,"price":0.73999999998964,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1773911395},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9999.999998,"price":0.6668885248737451,"title":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?","timestamp":1773633661}]}


id: 567688_0xabc2940f94854ab6e72b473aa3b64a3b667f1558b6fc32c702ebc1b9403e32b6-1158
market_id: 567688
market_question: Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
condition_id: 0xd1796c09d0d6f876f8580086ae9808ec991784e3a74b25a1830a25de71a78c96
transaction_hash: 0xabc2940f94854ab6e72b473aa3b64a3b667f1558b6fc32c702ebc1b9403e32b6-1158
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0x751674ebe931335ada5cdf902b2ac845fe768c8c
insider_evidence: 无。该笔交易完全可以由对以色列政治制度（预算案与大选关联）的公开分析来解释。
detected_at: 2026-04-02T09:48:23.299883
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2384030,"pnl":-1034.5608888872814,"volume":88305.55202900001,"user_name":"Tenteck","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-611537-e3adee85-ecd2-4af2-a9a6-e5e8ccbbdef2.jpg","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":44,"total_volume":82380.83659400002,"avg_trade_size":1872.2917407727277,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31?","Macron out by October 31, 2025?","Will 'Kingdom Come: Deliverance II' win Game of th","Will Apple acquire Mistral by December 31?","Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App St","Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?","Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30?","Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets from December 3","Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?","Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to "],"large_trades_count":7,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":6247.661349999999,"price":0.989,"title":"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?","timestamp":1772755533},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6247.66,"price":0.9802163392464389,"title":"Over $200M Hyperliquid buybacks in Q1?","timestamp":1772755597},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5685.439995000001,"price":0.9,"title":"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?","timestamp":1769967648},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5418.589970999999,"price":0.9530645259703302,"title":"Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in January?","timestamp":1767992652},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":5310.33103,"price":0.971,"title":"No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?","timestamp":1767992540},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5138.369839,"price":0.9969999999998059,"title":"Will 'Kingdom Come: Deliverance II' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards?","timestamp":1767456091},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5111.929998,"price":0.994854533524036,"title":"Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?","timestamp":1767295357}]}

reasoning:
该交易方向（No）与当日通过预算案、规避提前大选的重大公开政治新闻高度契合。交易者排名低且 PnL 为负，不具备内幕人士特征。其买入时机更像是对战时恐慌情绪的逆向交易。此外，市场顶级盈利交易者（gopfan2）也持有相同立场，表明这是一个基于共识逻辑的正常大额押注。


id: 1640919_0x12b4c0f0db88eefdb85ed95ccfa0d0643f0f0467c9f859e491f79231f69f3c17-2328
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0x12b4c0f0db88eefdb85ed95ccfa0d0643f0f0467c9f859e491f79231f69f3c17-2328
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xf90172978a803cceb5a2f6b96dd3e8a2c025d917
insider_evidence: 顶级鲸鱼群组（#59, #164, #167）集体异常持仓，且在特朗普发表‘极猛烈打击’言论的同时大量吃进 Yes Token。
detected_at: 2026-04-02T12:51:45.662553
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2327103,"pnl":-522.315842761536,"volume":5087.132411,"user_name":"Coldwind01","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":29,"total_volume":1564.4287060033994,"avg_trade_size":53.94581744839308,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $70-$75 in March?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?","US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?","Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-01?","Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at ","Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed ch","Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-22?","Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:45AM-12:50AM ","Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Leagu","Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-01?"],"large_trades_count":0,"recent_trades":[]}

reasoning:
当前交易者 Coldwind01 本身无历史信用，但其交易时机精确踩在多名顶级鲸鱼（PnL 达 70万+）密集建仓之后。历史信号显示，顶级交易者在 48 小时内将概率从 53% 推升至 61%，这与五角大楼部署地面部队抵达中东的新闻高度重合。交易者可能掌握了具体的越境时间表或地面行动开始的非公开前哨信号。


id: 1469737_0xbc585d8a02b8db739539fa19db447b61b573609913a60454b36144db0d3a19aa-2345
market_id: 1469737
market_question: Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
condition_id: 0x25fb28382075f418a944a781a9f8840e2f541152eea0d9798d1cabfa1466adbb
transaction_hash: 0xbc585d8a02b8db739539fa19db447b61b573609913a60454b36144db0d3a19aa-2345
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xa8948e141de09e8ed204681e4beb4d2473075324
insider_evidence: 该交易者近期在多个伊朗相关市场表现出‘低买高卖’的特质。本次交易发生在官方发布莫杰塔巴个人声明之后，买入金额与其近期成功获利的规模相称，显示出对‘辟谣’信息的高度转化信心。
detected_at: 2026-04-02T14:04:01.432631
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":3321,"pnl":36531.39159923045,"volume":546945.7411699999,"user_name":"rkrnru","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":96,"total_volume":482436.8566000002,"avg_trade_size":5025.383922916669,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?","Will Lee Jae-myung win 50-55% of the vote in the S","Will the Republican Party control the House after ","Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%?","Will the Democratic Party control the House after ","Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Electio","50% tariff goes into effect on EU by July 9?","Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral elect","Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?","Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2"],"large_trades_count":33,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":31947.60078,"price":0.9851990337848423,"title":"Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%?","timestamp":1762329845},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":27883.79045,"price":0.995,"title":"Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?","timestamp":1773189103},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":27061.599994,"price":0.9656610521899157,"title":"Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?","timestamp":1772873567},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":20741.809996,"price":0.6396351772174235,"title":"Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%?","timestamp":1762310913},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":20741.80326,"price":0.998,"title":"Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?","timestamp":1762310875},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":15652.056199999999,"price":0.979,"title":"Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?","timestamp":1751159816},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":15646.019996999998,"price":0.9240085862131988,"title":"Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2025?","timestamp":1749234720},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":15362.225399999998,"price":0.9072487533042457,"title":"Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2025?","timestamp":1749368847},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":15028.54624,"price":0.9900084610104465,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?","timestamp":1751125344},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":15028.539998,"price":0.9399999999712281,"title":"Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?","timestamp":1751125412}]}

reasoning:
交易者 rkrnru 是一名深耕伊朗地缘政治市场的专长型鲸鱼，拥有优秀的 PnL 记录。其在莫杰塔巴‘生死迷雾’尚未完全散去时买入 Yes，显然是在博弈官方辟谣的真实性。考虑到其在相关市场（如霍尔木兹海峡）的精准收割记录，其对伊朗政权内部稳定性的判断可能基于更深层的政治逻辑或更快速的数据源分析。


id: 1466016_0xcb00e103f2692b7c2aed7fb90ca3fefdcad9c09d581682e142eca1ef97cd1325-4229
market_id: 1466016
market_question: US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
condition_id: 0x80059ff4e694f878c0498f6f3a067ee7ca62dc2fc46251a4287b58355ce47bc5
transaction_hash: 0xcb00e103f2692b7c2aed7fb90ca3fefdcad9c09d581682e142eca1ef97cd1325-4229
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xf0d9af9effd0b4a039899901ba19a05ea1a3e4ee
insider_evidence: 无。交易行为完全可以用对公开新闻（特朗普言论、伊朗否认、Axios 报道）的滞后反应和抄底心理来解释。
detected_at: 2026-04-02T14:06:57.525213
market_resolved_at: 2026-04-22T08:02:23.984962
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2499309,"pnl":-628794.9863251274,"volume":15595643.799835,"user_name":"polywog","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":565916.61419,"avg_trade_size":5659.1661419,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["New \"Stranger Things\" episode released by January ","Will Benjamin Netanyahu be TIME's Person of the Ye","Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?","Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January ","Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME's Person of the Year for","Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after Dece","Will Charlie Kirk be TIME's Person of the Year for","Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday?","Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 20","Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?"],"large_trades_count":23,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":79919.99001000001,"price":0.999,"title":"Netanyahu out by March 31?","timestamp":1775089355},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":45678.0,"price":0.993,"title":"No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?","timestamp":1769525165},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":45140.1066,"price":0.94,"title":"Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?","timestamp":1764619186},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":39087.172399999996,"price":0.8086665450165448,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?","timestamp":1767920880},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":39055.79312,"price":0.976394828,"title":"Netanyahu out by March 31?","timestamp":1773945919},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":30048.9818,"price":0.997,"title":"New \"Stranger Things\" episode released by January 31? ","timestamp":1769525101},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":28500.0,"price":0.95,"title":"Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?","timestamp":1764686288},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":21865.3995,"price":0.8583529385439946,"title":"Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?","timestamp":1762266545},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":19640.0,"price":0.982,"title":"Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?","timestamp":1769753652},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":19352.626,"price":0.94,"title":"Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?","timestamp":1764689270}]}

reasoning:
交易者在价格因伊朗官方否认而暴跌后选择抄底。尽管其交易规模大，但其高达 62 万美元的历史亏损和极低的排名表明其并非掌握一手内幕的人士，更多是基于对特朗普外交策略和媒体传闻（Axios/Nawfal）的盲目信任或高风险投机。其入场价格（0.24）远低于此前入场的 Rank #47 和 #124，属于‘被套聪明钱’之后的跟随者。


id: 1640919_0x1574ba83313a2dc012130e91ab0d1ffb4a07260c616e2a85b6ba4ff4357f7af2-1680
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0x1574ba83313a2dc012130e91ab0d1ffb4a07260c616e2a85b6ba4ff4357f7af2-1680
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x8c8abe4b2a74a8b8c894b9acc88df3309c01e62a
detected_at: 2026-04-02T14:25:20.230417
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":12211,"pnl":9018.782456222221,"volume":555317.6400780001,"user_name":"jesus911","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":99793.23234800006,"avg_trade_size":997.9323234800006,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?","Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?","Will Iran strike Israel on March 9?","Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?","Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 10","Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 7, 2026?","Odds US strikes Iran by Feb 2 over 20% on Friday?","US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?","US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by ","Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related "],"large_trades_count":5,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":13621.249997,"price":0.7354822965199292,"title":"Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?","timestamp":1774824852},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":13589.880899999998,"price":0.9807083027535846,"title":"US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?","timestamp":1774824786},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8361.92999,"price":0.9559517140882478,"title":"Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?","timestamp":1773061505},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":6993.0,"price":0.999,"title":"Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?","timestamp":1773763989},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6992.999998,"price":0.7587846533291899,"title":"US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?","timestamp":1773764107}]}

reasoning:
交易者 jesus911 虽非顶级巨鲸，但其交易组合极度聚焦于伊朗冲突，且紧随顶级巨鲸（如 TheQuietRisk）的加仓步伐。目前的公开信息仅证实了部队部署，而 62% 的隐含概率说明市场正在定价某些尚未公开的‘先头部队’（特种部队）入镜的消息。社交媒体上关于‘多钱包协同注入 $200万’的传闻进一步暗示了可能存在的信息泄露。

insider_evidence:
该市场历史信号显示出极强的一致性（11笔全为看多），且价格在消息模糊期持续走高。第 82 空降师的指挥部级部署通常意味着地面行动已获得授权，交易者可能通过军事物流追踪或内部动员信号捕捉到了行动发起的提前量。


id: 665374_0xfa5417625205af743212b0b101f2ce3f55f7884ee48b7f1ef03018d6bd7a9560-994
market_id: 665374
market_question: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
condition_id: 0x5db999fad322cea2914535aae5517060c3f80ad6d8c0231cde2124a434d16846
transaction_hash: 0xfa5417625205af743212b0b101f2ce3f55f7884ee48b7f1ef03018d6bd7a9560-994
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x6087e2651febbab9589e490cb5947f6a1ca3900c
insider_evidence: 无。交易者资质极差，且与顶级聪明钱的共识背道而驰。其交易时间点位于重大公共演讲之后，无任何抢跑迹象。
detected_at: 2026-04-02T15:21:19.208667
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2498625,"pnl":-71682.9382544165,"volume":2335911.408186,"user_name":"sdffdsgdagsg","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":45649.580097,"avg_trade_size":456.49580097,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy ","Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at th","US x Cuba military clash in 2026?","Russian strike on Poland by June 30?","Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?","Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?","Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Ele","US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?","2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House","Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at "],"large_trades_count":0,"recent_trades":[]}

reasoning:
交易者 'sdffdsgdagsg' 是典型的散户鲸鱼，排名极低且历史亏损巨大。其交易行为模式显示出对地缘政治冲突的投机性偏好。该交易发生在特朗普公开讲话及战场新闻满天飞之后，属于随大流的追涨行为。更重要的是，Polymarket 排名最顶尖的两位玩家（#31 和 #124）正持有相反的 No 仓位，表明专业交易者认为目前的军事行动不符合'旨在建立领土控制'的结算标准。该笔交易大概率是对新闻的误读而非掌握内幕。


id: 1640919_0x02c5f1bcae15e5ca766591880c54a70b14a87972a18736f362b062dac02ce824-1101
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0x02c5f1bcae15e5ca766591880c54a70b14a87972a18736f362b062dac02ce824-1101
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35
detected_at: 2026-04-02T16:30:12.672379
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":75,"pnl":1309302.051492731,"volume":104980591.23248301,"user_name":"ScottyNooo","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-2861114-c1c15cef-e455-4932-9b26-66ad799b1a4a.webp","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":129430.42762999999,"avg_trade_size":1294.3042762999999,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor ","Trump announces end of military operations against","Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?","US forces enter Iran by December 31?","Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end ","Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April","Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?","Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","US forces enter Iran by April 30?"],"large_trades_count":6,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":17739.5465,"price":0.65,"title":"US forces enter Iran by December 31?","timestamp":1775087891},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":11250.096,"price":0.66,"title":"US forces enter Iran by December 31?","timestamp":1775087899},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7385.888,"price":0.85,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","timestamp":1775093443},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6466.0199999999995,"price":0.97,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?","timestamp":1775101199},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5443.9,"price":0.98,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?","timestamp":1775103521},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5385.17066,"price":0.9685349704682633,"title":"Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?","timestamp":1775101011}]}

reasoning:
交易者 ScottyNooo（排名 #75，PnL $1.3M+）是 Polymarket 的顶尖鲸鱼，其历史交易显示其深耕地缘政治领域。该笔交易发生在市场传出‘特朗普要求军方制定夺取伊朗铀库存的绝密高风险计划’（由 WSJ、WaPo 等主流媒体报道）之后。虽然该计划是公开信息，但包括 ScottyNooo 在内的多名 Top 100 交易者（如 #59、#164、#241、#415）在过去 48 小时内密集买入 Yes，这种‘聪明钱’的高度协同性暗示他们可能捕捉到了该军事行动已获授权或即将进入执行阶段的非公开风声，或者具备对美军部署动态（如 USS Tripoli 到达）的专业深度解读。

insider_evidence:
多个高排名、高盈利鲸鱼在 48 小时内密集买入 Yes。近期泄露的‘铀夺取任务’（Uranium Seizure Mission）提供了明确的触发事件，交易时机（4月3日凌晨）与该高风险计划在内阁讨论的时间窗重合。


id: 1484894_0xd1cbe9463899178c5fc645677037c16d7350fc69b1ca4db6765e0370e799f188-1540
market_id: 1484894
market_question: US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
condition_id: 0xa9937410f8aae98cc6440a7480ad832be5a1a998afcf5a6e77c6f5aa4c0f259f
transaction_hash: 0xd1cbe9463899178c5fc645677037c16d7350fc69b1ca4db6765e0370e799f188-1540
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0x52f9c45a6fa8182649067bef26209878b935e1c7
insider_evidence: 无。该笔交易更多体现了对地缘政治僵局的研判能力，而非由于非公开渠道。该交易者与市场排名前100的顶级空头（SwissMiss）站在同一阵线，强化了看空信号的可信度。
detected_at: 2026-04-02T17:09:09.006990
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:12.840796
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":8431,"pnl":13229.944746717822,"volume":718328.961514,"user_name":"Myway","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":135716.6684560001,"avg_trade_size":1357.166684560001,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?","Trump announces end of military operations against","US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?","US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?","Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?","US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?","US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","US forces enter Iran by April 30?"],"large_trades_count":2,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":6219.2624000000005,"price":0.5942439785053087,"title":"Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?","timestamp":1774871932},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5999.999999000001,"price":0.5728006782624481,"title":"Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?","timestamp":1774810718}]}

reasoning:
交易者并非由于掌握未公开外交内幕，而是通过对公开外交动态（伊朗拒绝15点协议、4月6日能源打击通牒）的敏锐分析，判定市场对特朗普的停火言论过度乐观。其交易时机精准捕捉了市场从'停火幻想'转向'现实对抗'的拐点。


id: 1484894_0x8c2066a87bc69519421f118810ddfd2f6d0214ec18fb11e2bb124df2f338703c-1422
market_id: 1484894
market_question: US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
condition_id: 0xa9937410f8aae98cc6440a7480ad832be5a1a998afcf5a6e77c6f5aa4c0f259f
transaction_hash: 0x8c2066a87bc69519421f118810ddfd2f6d0214ec18fb11e2bb124df2f338703c-1422
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0xdbade4c82fb72780a0db9a38f821d8671aba9c95
detected_at: 2026-04-02T19:39:27.073990
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:12.840796
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":85,"pnl":1146443.4235957256,"volume":79451679.536479,"user_name":"SwissMiss","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/swissmiss_8da75aa4-05e7-444a-b87a-da4d38d2bb08_1741939822531.jpg","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":749230.505576,"avg_trade_size":7492.30505576,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will there be no change in Fed interest rates afte","Will Clavicular be the top ranked Chad by March 31","Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?","Trump announces end of military operations against","US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?","US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April","Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack?","UFC 326: Rodolfo Bellato vs. Luke Fernandez (Light","US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?","Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?"],"large_trades_count":26,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":99800.0,"price":0.998,"title":"Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?","timestamp":1773587329},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":99800.0,"price":0.998,"title":"Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?","timestamp":1773556217},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":74925.0,"price":0.999,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1774935287},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":51000.00000000001,"price":0.68,"title":"UFC 326: Rodolfo Bellato vs. Luke Fernandez (Light Heavyweight, Early Prelims)","timestamp":1772922999},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":47760.0,"price":0.995,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1775031685},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":27467.469399999998,"price":0.98,"title":"Netanyahu out by March 31?","timestamp":1773587219},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":20240.25492,"price":0.8132728524181504,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1772554973},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":19500.0,"price":0.65,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","timestamp":1774778464},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":15182.27715,"price":0.995,"title":"Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?","timestamp":1774935223},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":14999.695921,"price":0.74998479605,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1773361063}]}

reasoning:
SwissMiss 作为排名前 100 且盈利超百万的顶级鲸鱼，其行为具有极强的风向标意义。本交易最核心的信号在于其‘策略反转’：从早前看好 4 月停火转向重仓押注 5 月亦无停火。虽然停火协议的僵局有公开新闻支持，但该交易者在特朗普释放乐观信号后，依然坚定选择对冲并反手看空，显示其对地缘政治底层逻辑（伊朗赔偿要求与海峡封锁的不可调和性）有超越普通散户的判断力。近期多笔高排名信号的一致转向，增强了该判断的可靠性。

insider_evidence:
该交易者此前在相关市场有准确的提前布局记录。此次在多方外交消息混杂（特朗普说近了，伊朗说没谈）的情况下，选择在 0.55 的赔率水平大规模增持 No，暗示其可能通过专业分析或非公开渠道确认了外交谈判已陷入实质性停滞。


id: 1640919_0xc54cb4f5acf70f62c509766b4a49937daf7ea97848d154534052216a922ad64f-1249
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0xc54cb4f5acf70f62c509766b4a49937daf7ea97848d154534052216a922ad64f-1249
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xc234e18cec7d611f8ea2ab68a0367f3c5cebacd1
detected_at: 2026-04-02T19:44:33.527282
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":2,"total_volume":23133.3076,"avg_trade_size":11566.6538,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US forces enter Iran by April 30?"],"large_trades_count":2,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":13611.4624,"price":0.64,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775158869},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9521.8452,"price":0.63,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775158649}]}

reasoning:
该笔交易发生在特朗普总统关于伊朗战争的黄金时段演讲（美东时间晚上9点，约 01:00 UTC）之后约2.5小时。交易者显然是在消化演讲信息后的反应性买入。虽然该交易者是无排名的新账号，但其买入方向与市场上多位顶级掠食者（#75, #164, #241）以及排名前60的聪明钱（#59 SecondWindCapital）完全一致。演讲中提到的'2-3周内结束战争'和'采取一切手段'的表态，极大地增强了市场对美军地面部队进入伊朗执行斩首或核设施夺取任务（如媒体传闻的夺取浓缩铀计划）的预期。这更像是一笔基于公开重磅新闻的高额赌注，而非领先于新闻的内幕交易。

insider_evidence:
交易时间点位于特朗普全国讲话之后，属于对公开政策转向的快速响应。尽管有媒体爆料五角大楼已向特朗普简报‘空投数千士兵进入伊朗境内’的风险计划，但这属于半公开的军事分析/泄露，交易者并无明显的时间差优势。


id: 1466016_0x064820c9e102ce2b848c214ef70b796af87a2ab6bc0e8986f320abd0c46200e7-1826
market_id: 1466016
market_question: US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
condition_id: 0x80059ff4e694f878c0498f6f3a067ee7ca62dc2fc46251a4287b58355ce47bc5
transaction_hash: 0x064820c9e102ce2b848c214ef70b796af87a2ab6bc0e8986f320abd0c46200e7-1826
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xf0d9af9effd0b4a039899901ba19a05ea1a3e4ee
insider_evidence: 无。交易时间晚于总统公开讲话，且交易者历史表现极差，排除了专业情报来源的可能性。
detected_at: 2026-04-02T19:58:00.935834
market_resolved_at: 2026-04-22T08:02:23.984962
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2499309,"pnl":-628794.9863251274,"volume":15595643.799835,"user_name":"polywog","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":585782.43982,"avg_trade_size":5857.824398199999,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Trump announces end of military operations against","New \"Stranger Things\" episode released by January ","Will Benjamin Netanyahu be TIME's Person of the Ye","Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?","Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January ","Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME's Person of the Year for","Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after Dece","Will Charlie Kirk be TIME's Person of the Year for","Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday?","Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 20"],"large_trades_count":24,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":79919.99001000001,"price":0.999,"title":"Netanyahu out by March 31?","timestamp":1775089355},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":45678.0,"price":0.993,"title":"No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?","timestamp":1769525165},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":45140.1066,"price":0.94,"title":"Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?","timestamp":1764619186},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":39087.172399999996,"price":0.8086665450165448,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?","timestamp":1767920880},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":39055.79312,"price":0.976394828,"title":"Netanyahu out by March 31?","timestamp":1773945919},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":30048.9818,"price":0.997,"title":"New \"Stranger Things\" episode released by January 31? ","timestamp":1769525101},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":28500.0,"price":0.95,"title":"Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?","timestamp":1764686288},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":21865.3995,"price":0.8583529385439946,"title":"Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?","timestamp":1762266545},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":19640.0,"price":0.982,"title":"Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?","timestamp":1769753652},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":19352.626,"price":0.94,"title":"Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?","timestamp":1764689270}]}

reasoning:
交易行为完全可以用对特朗普 4月2日全国讲话的公开解读来解释。交易者 PnL 极低（-$62.8万），显示其缺乏长期稳定的获利能力，更符合散户鲸鱼受情绪/新闻驱动的特征。市场聪明钱（高排名用户）多处于其对手方，进一步降低了其掌握内幕的可能性。


id: 1484894_0xe0a91929bbd11c9cda3cdfd1bf857fca4e061581f99ab0a74c147be33c5ca77e-1595
market_id: 1484894
market_question: US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
condition_id: 0xa9937410f8aae98cc6440a7480ad832be5a1a998afcf5a6e77c6f5aa4c0f259f
transaction_hash: 0xe0a91929bbd11c9cda3cdfd1bf857fca4e061581f99ab0a74c147be33c5ca77e-1595
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0x1c72797cd4b9b83f42e287144e334c4de347dfb6
insider_evidence: 与排名 #85 的顶级巨鲸 SwissMiss 几乎同步建仓看空，且建仓点均位于伊朗军方发表硬派声明之后、媒体广泛报道之前的时间窗口。
detected_at: 2026-04-02T20:04:58.076194
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:12.840796
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":374,"pnl":347114.75206660916,"volume":10512126.168444999,"user_name":"peasant","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-516166-864bff88-0fc2-4fae-b5ef-ddbbd92201c1.jpg","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":434637.79917899997,"avg_trade_size":4346.377991789999,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican preside","Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?","US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April","Will George Russell win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 ","Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hor","Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of Marc","Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026","Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February","US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end "],"large_trades_count":19,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":79819.29060000001,"price":0.996,"title":"Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?","timestamp":1773147981},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":39920.0,"price":0.998,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1772376183},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":22000.0,"price":0.88,"title":"Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?","timestamp":1772644149},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":19960.0,"price":0.998,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?","timestamp":1772374845},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":19920.0,"price":0.996,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","timestamp":1774979657},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":19619.86536,"price":0.996,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","timestamp":1774998173},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":17600.0,"price":0.88,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?","timestamp":1774199471},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":17089.4324,"price":0.5370407787444205,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","timestamp":1772822259},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":15800.0,"price":0.79,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1774407713},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":14796.4914,"price":0.73982457,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","timestamp":1772823199}]}

reasoning:
该交易者是地缘政治市场的资深获利者，排名 Top 400。其买入时机精准捕捉到了伊朗官方正式反驳停火传闻及阿联酋遭受导弹攻击后的局势拐点。虽然大部分信息为公开新闻，但该交易者在多个关联市场（3月、4月、5月停火）的统一布局展示了其对外交谈判周期和军事升级节奏的专业预判，优于普通散户。


id: 1640919_0x3da5e3d3e3e00156fcf221d567040192b1503b718a842981df503dcfcbf809bd-1386
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0x3da5e3d3e3e00156fcf221d567040192b1503b718a842981df503dcfcbf809bd-1386
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x202b55f1fce57d15463c7691a66a2f03f62c7ed7
detected_at: 2026-04-02T20:29:37.693989
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2376271,"pnl":-938.3554544556291,"volume":8837.092266,"user_name":"0x202B55F1fce57d15463c7691A66a2f03f62C7eD7-1768331577083","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":14,"total_volume":2879.9999850000004,"avg_trade_size":205.71428464285717,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Internet access restored in Iran by Friday?","Will Páfos FC win on 2026-01-21?","Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end","Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?","Iran strike on Qatar by January 31, 2026?","Chelsea FC vs. Páfos FC: O/U 2.5","Will anyone audibly fart during Trump's WEF 2026 s","US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?","US forces enter Iran by April 30?"],"large_trades_count":0,"recent_trades":[]}

reasoning:
该交易者为低排名、历史亏损且此前交易规模极小（均值 $200）的账号，突然进行的 $30,000 大额押注（为其历史总量的 3 倍以上）具有典型‘跟风’或‘获悉特定情报后的新开仓’特征。结合市场 Top 5 均由 TheQuietRisk 等顶级盈利者把守，以及 WSJ 报道 Trump 可能实施‘提取铀矿’的地面行动，信息优势正从高层向外围扩散。

insider_evidence:
1. 交易时间（4月3日）紧随 4月1日 Trump 关于‘2-3周内结束伊朗战事’的公开表态；2. 该市场已连续出现 11 笔异常信号，且方向全部高度一致指向 Yes；3. 市场定义的‘地面进入’（Terrestrial entry）与传闻中的特种部队提取铀矿任务高度契合。


id: 1640919_0x93f5481d5df6a3f7720e32bf89dcfee76a80d9008d216e93c8b2444c69fc8eae-1308
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0x93f5481d5df6a3f7720e32bf89dcfee76a80d9008d216e93c8b2444c69fc8eae-1308
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x616d9ddd0d11b3e3fbd4a617d1320814ac19bf7d
reasoning: 交易者表现出显著的‘追高建仓’行为，在 0.60 卖出后又在 0.68 大额买回，显示其对事件即刻发生的信心增强。虽然美军部署是公开新闻，但具体的‘越境’（Entry）时间节点具有极高的信息门槛。
insider_evidence: 该交易者与市场顶尖盈利鲸鱼（如 TheQuietRisk）步调一致。其在特朗普讲话及五角大楼作战计划流出后的加仓行为，极具针对性。
detected_at: 2026-04-02T21:31:57.191327
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":8294,"pnl":13485.854713417571,"volume":873925.554791,"user_name":"barfaroni","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":180747.52015710223,"avg_trade_size":1807.4752015710224,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils","Netanyahu out by June 30?","Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies","Utah State Aggies vs. Arizona Wildcats","Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats","Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers","Lakers vs. Pacers","US forces enter Iran by April 30?","Miami Hurricanes vs. Purdue Boilermakers","High Point Panthers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks"],"large_trades_count":8,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":22828.096400000002,"price":0.68,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775165379},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":20080.709995,"price":0.8479206150079966,"title":"Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?","timestamp":1773927069},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":16014.144,"price":0.6,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774969789},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":15700.192000000003,"price":0.4,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774973235},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8480.6875488,"price":0.96,"title":"Utah State Aggies vs. Arizona Wildcats","timestamp":1774227047},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7535.7534000000005,"price":0.14,"title":"Netanyahu out by June 30?","timestamp":1773669173},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":7227.22,"price":0.88,"title":"Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?","timestamp":1774031287},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":6439.1327,"price":0.91,"title":"Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?","timestamp":1774271829}]}


id: 1640919_0xdac67a3037730f1343b69d35bc5583a87f2a396df0b64d57d9e2fd88371e1a43-2547
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0xdac67a3037730f1343b69d35bc5583a87f2a396df0b64d57d9e2fd88371e1a43-2547
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0x38692cead875c0cd862052efbff8f6add7310e3c
insider_evidence: 该交易者在 Rank #75 大额买入推高 Yes 价格后的 6 分钟内迅速接盘被低估的 No，显示其正在监控大额订单流并对该消息面持坚决的反对态度。
detected_at: 2026-04-02T21:36:15.921807
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":1244,"pnl":102391.01709113206,"volume":1731635.9088390002,"user_name":"Water-Dunk","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-4928886-317f9bf4-e774-44e6-b902-4b4bce2e4e35.webp","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":321926.18206672586,"avg_trade_size":3219.2618206672587,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?","Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by A","Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?","Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026?","Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican president","US forces enter Iran by December 31?","Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026?","US forces enter Iran by March 31?","US forces enter Iran by April 30?","US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?"],"large_trades_count":18,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":21999.999995000002,"price":0.7346678174625807,"title":"US forces enter Iran by December 31?","timestamp":1773002925},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":19389.2369,"price":0.6047532827636971,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775119907},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":17810.77422,"price":0.9935544060353715,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1775039403},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":16802.1649,"price":0.8429316445433981,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774266101},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":16132.529993999999,"price":0.8999354496036374,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774798346},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":14526.767800000001,"price":0.7575533768949567,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","timestamp":1773002655},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":13895.551200000002,"price":0.92,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?","timestamp":1773002723},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9999.999999,"price":0.550849795467262,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774371423},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9999.999998000001,"price":0.9760534692382064,"title":"Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026?","timestamp":1772650391},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9999.999998,"price":0.9845423302869842,"title":"Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 7, 2026?","timestamp":1772650367}]}

reasoning:
交易者对该细分市场有极高专长，且敢于在顶级鲸鱼（Rank #75）重仓 Yes 的情况下反向做空。这种操作通常基于对特朗普言论中'任务完成'的字面解读或对地面行动风险的否定。虽然未发现明确的非公开文件泄露，但其精准的调仓行为显示了专业的数据处理和研判能力。


id: 1640919_0xf2a363f22f1c8c35c4a128cbe84fad431f2434a902de5bbf45f205c14e828b99-1565
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0xf2a363f22f1c8c35c4a128cbe84fad431f2434a902de5bbf45f205c14e828b99-1565
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x327ab305f73bd95467efbf2f57a2e1df919699bf
insider_evidence: 无明确内幕证据。虽然买入金额较大，但买入价格 0.68 已处于高位，且买入时间点并无突发的非公开利好。此外，5分钟前有排名千名的交易者反向押注，显示市场存在分歧而非单向内幕控制。
detected_at: 2026-04-02T21:41:29.692408
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2457967,"pnl":-2685.2415421994983,"volume":114275.461409,"user_name":"safebetter112","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":25,"total_volume":79691.407686,"avg_trade_size":3187.65630744,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the","Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-09?","Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-12-09?","Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at ","US forces enter Iran by April 30?","Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th ","Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Se"],"large_trades_count":3,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":29999.999999,"price":0.6999999999953334,"title":"Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?","timestamp":1761348470},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":14999.999998,"price":0.6999999999906666,"title":"Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?","timestamp":1761348444},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6398.259999000001,"price":0.6799999999914977,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775165519}]}

reasoning:
交易者 safebetter112 历史战绩不佳（PnL 为负），且排名极低，不具备典型的内幕人士特征。其交易行为属于在公开新闻（特朗普演讲、美军部署）已充分发酵后的‘追高’行为。虽然与市场顶尖大户方向一致，但这更可能是受公众情绪和新闻共识驱动的盲从大额押注。


id: 1640919_0xbf5f17510f3de928baf9c4a2af62556d50a92ac81197257c44f7e8fb5ac633ac-825
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0xbf5f17510f3de928baf9c4a2af62556d50a92ac81197257c44f7e8fb5ac633ac-825
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x327ab305f73bd95467efbf2f57a2e1df919699bf
insider_evidence: 无。该笔交易完全可以由公开的地面行动报道和前序鲸鱼的示范效应解释。交易者身份更符合具备一定资金量的普通博弈者。
detected_at: 2026-04-02T21:41:02.611903
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2457967,"pnl":-2685.2415421994983,"volume":114275.461409,"user_name":"safebetter112","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":25,"total_volume":79691.407686,"avg_trade_size":3187.65630744,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the","Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-09?","Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-12-09?","Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at ","US forces enter Iran by April 30?","Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th ","Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Se"],"large_trades_count":3,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":29999.999999,"price":0.6999999999953334,"title":"Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?","timestamp":1761348470},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":14999.999998,"price":0.6999999999906666,"title":"Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?","timestamp":1761348444},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6398.259999000001,"price":0.6799999999914977,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775165519}]}

reasoning:
交易者 safebetter112 历史盈亏为负且排名极低，其交易行为更像是追随市场热点而非掌握核心内幕。虽然该市场确实有顶级交易员（#75, #164）在早期埋伏，但该笔交易发生在相关计划被媒体广泛报道且价格已处于高位之后。此外，在该交易发生前几分钟有高排名交易员反向买入 No，显示市场在 70% 概率附近存在博弈。


id: 1608290_0xcfe3be42bab8528bec6367ca0990c81f2f05173e835fe28308f27726b1d82287-1963
market_id: 1608290
market_question: Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m?
condition_id: 0x0842399b1d5e90288b1bc17ce671e947dba095247347149f3c2749ef542556a6
transaction_hash: 0xcfe3be42bab8528bec6367ca0990c81f2f05173e835fe28308f27726b1d82287-1963
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x9e8631d78bcf5c6e5b76a0c55cbc6fa39830fce6
insider_evidence: 周三公开票房数据优于前作，为 $180M+ 的预测提供了强有力的逻辑支撑，无需内幕信息即可做出判断。
detected_at: 2026-04-02T21:46:13.126074
market_resolved_at: 2026-04-22T08:02:46.566381
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":130582,"pnl":233.2433048265844,"volume":5587.6145050000005,"user_name":"BePhong","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":13,"total_volume":9366.818117000032,"avg_trade_size":720.524470538464,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam?","Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET","Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at ","Nuggets vs. Thunder","Spread: Pistons (-6.5)","Will \"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie\" Opening Weeken"],"large_trades_count":0,"recent_trades":[]}

reasoning:
交易者账户历史表现平庸，无特定领域专长。其买入行为发生在首日票房利好（$34M）公开之后，且是在多位高排名顶级交易者（WordleAddict, New.Jeans）已经建立大额 Yes 头寸后跟随入场。这更像是一个基于公开超预期数据和聪明钱共识的理性押注，而非掌握了尚未公开的周四/周五核心数据。


id: 1608290_0x62c0d5b7af56f03b69ceda5b7d27745ae01d21a1f2bf26fd4dcf017ef8ba3056-3187
market_id: 1608290
market_question: Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m?
condition_id: 0x0842399b1d5e90288b1bc17ce671e947dba095247347149f3c2749ef542556a6
transaction_hash: 0x62c0d5b7af56f03b69ceda5b7d27745ae01d21a1f2bf26fd4dcf017ef8ba3056-3187
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x9e8631d78bcf5c6e5b76a0c55cbc6fa39830fce6
insider_evidence: 买入金额高于其历史均值，且买入区间与 Deadline 等权威媒体的最新预测（1.86亿）完全吻合。其对手方虽然有高排名鲸鱼，但看多方同样吸引了 Top 300 级别的聪明钱参与。
detected_at: 2026-04-02T21:50:13.647987
market_resolved_at: 2026-04-22T08:02:46.566381
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":130582,"pnl":233.2433048265844,"volume":5587.6145050000005,"user_name":"BePhong","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":13,"total_volume":9366.818117000032,"avg_trade_size":720.524470538464,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam?","Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET","Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at ","Nuggets vs. Thunder","Spread: Pistons (-6.5)","Will \"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie\" Opening Weeken"],"large_trades_count":0,"recent_trades":[]}

reasoning:
交易者在行业预测（1.86亿）发布后不久精准买入对应的 1.8-1.9亿区间，属于对公开数据反应敏锐的策略性买入。虽然交易者排名不高，但由于买入时机处于周四票房数据即将出炉的真空期，不排除其获取了早期的非正式票房快报。


id: 1640919_0xbe18dfff65dd13ae0fc57d3c5b26b1af1b61b3b46a4c8131ef919181486796eb-1049
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0xbe18dfff65dd13ae0fc57d3c5b26b1af1b61b3b46a4c8131ef919181486796eb-1049
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x33979d90e1e9a8d8c6e65f993855233d2368f5ab
insider_evidence: None. True smart money (top 100 ranks) entered this position 48-72 hours earlier at lower prices.
detected_at: 2026-04-03T00:33:56.843498
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2491063,"pnl":-10502.454632491366,"volume":203849.494101,"user_name":"degenchad","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":27,"total_volume":9249.219959000002,"avg_trade_size":342.56370218518526,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Pacers vs. Nets: O/U 214.5","Mavericks vs. Nets: O/U 225.5","Spread: Celtics (-7.5)","Spread: Magic (-11.5)","Spread: Pelicans (-6.5)","Spread: Pistons (-9.5)","US forces enter Iran by March 31?","US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","US forces enter Iran by April 30?","Spread: Trail Blazers (-7.5)"],"large_trades_count":0,"recent_trades":[]}

reasoning:
The trader's profile shows a history of unsuccessful sports betting with a negative PnL. This $16k trade is a massive deviation from their usual behavior but aligns perfectly with public reports of US troops positioning and Trump's 2-3 week timeline. The trade appears to be a momentum-chasing bet rather than informed insider activity.


id: 1640919_0x1fae238c06169ca48beff1665e7bb058afe5ffe00536100d0f395d79c38a98f5-1062
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0x1fae238c06169ca48beff1665e7bb058afe5ffe00536100d0f395d79c38a98f5-1062
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35
insider_evidence: 顶级鲸鱼在看似矛盾的市场（入侵 Yes vs 停火 Yes）中精准布局，暗示其掌握了冲突升级到停火的完整预期时间表。
detected_at: 2026-04-03T01:02:39.885146
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":75,"pnl":1309302.051492731,"volume":104980591.23248301,"user_name":"ScottyNooo","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-2861114-c1c15cef-e455-4932-9b26-66ad799b1a4a.webp","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":130865.82861999997,"avg_trade_size":1308.6582861999998,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by April 15?","Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor ","Trump announces end of military operations against","Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by December 31?","Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?","Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by June 30?","US forces enter Iran by December 31?","Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end ","Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?"],"large_trades_count":7,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":12588.408,"price":0.6,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775147335},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10665.6563,"price":0.67,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775177955},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7717.5835,"price":0.85,"title":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?","timestamp":1775150597},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7385.888,"price":0.85,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","timestamp":1775093443},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6466.0199999999995,"price":0.97,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?","timestamp":1775101199},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5443.9,"price":0.98,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?","timestamp":1775103521},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5385.17066,"price":0.9685349704682633,"title":"Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?","timestamp":1775101011}]}

reasoning:
全平台排名前 100 的三位顶级大户高度一致看多，且交易者 ScottyNooo 在价格上涨后继续追加，表现出极强的确定性。由于地面入侵的时间点对公众保密，大户的集群行为反映了其在军事情报分析上的优势。


id: 1484894_0x4a0eaafbc61b59aa28b799f036287c88cf55732f128549deade0a4e97487f4cb-2089
market_id: 1484894
market_question: US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
condition_id: 0xa9937410f8aae98cc6440a7480ad832be5a1a998afcf5a6e77c6f5aa4c0f259f
transaction_hash: 0x4a0eaafbc61b59aa28b799f036287c88cf55732f128549deade0a4e97487f4cb-2089
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0x71587aff3d063868a086574dcf9a86ab153a5439
detected_at: 2026-04-03T02:03:36.099382
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:12.840796
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":1451,"pnl":87920.83553027757,"volume":918977.0026489999,"user_name":"Radar","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":86,"total_volume":661154.13413,"avg_trade_size":7687.838768953488,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?","US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?","US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?","US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?","US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?","US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?"],"large_trades_count":32,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":62372.909999999996,"price":0.87,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","timestamp":1774325561},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":58302.8107,"price":0.998,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","timestamp":1775006093},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":48119.3784,"price":0.81,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","timestamp":1774401033},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":44651.3715,"price":0.81,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","timestamp":1775006843},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":29880.0,"price":0.996,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","timestamp":1774988515},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":22955.46156,"price":0.999,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","timestamp":1775013117},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":22603.149299999997,"price":0.83,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","timestamp":1774886591},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":21274.82325,"price":0.983,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?","timestamp":1775181535},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":19171.406,"price":0.7198676021380415,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","timestamp":1774886667},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":18985.7745,"price":0.77,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","timestamp":1774988537}]}

reasoning:
交易者 Radar (排名 #1451) 是该事件领域的专家，其历史记录显示在多个伊朗相关停火市场中获利颇丰（如以 0.99+ 的价格清掉 3 月 31 日的头寸）。该笔交易发生在特朗普宣称伊朗请求停火（导致赔率波动）后，伊朗官方明确否认并提出强硬条件的背景下。Radar 此前倾向于看多（Yes），此次转而看空（No）反映了其对最新外交僵局的快速反应。虽然相关否认声明已公开，但 Radar 作为前 5 大持仓者，其大额反向调仓与近期多个高排名交易者的看空趋势一致，显示了其对地缘政治动态的极高敏感度和专业研判。

insider_evidence:
交易者在 4 月 1-2 日的外交博弈节点（特朗普宣称停火 vs 伊朗严辞否认）后，迅速将策略从之前的看多转为看空。此外，社交媒体监测到有多个关联钱包在同一时间点大幅下注‘美军进入伊朗’（看空停火的极化情况），暗示部分专业交易者可能掌握了比普通新闻更深层的冲突升级信号。


id: 567561_0x2d6f4e9ce6794c5edcd8a06093a114ccec68d04b97d7801334258ec397e80733-1765
market_id: 567561
market_question: Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
condition_id: 0x1480b819d03d4b6388d70e848b0384adf38c38d955cb783cdbcf6d4a436dee14
transaction_hash: 0x2d6f4e9ce6794c5edcd8a06093a114ccec68d04b97d7801334258ec397e80733-1765
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xf5bcf155ece1d1b6ba008667e60e08bd8fe22c49
insider_evidence: 无明确内幕证据。交易发生在马扎尔民调稳步上升且选前最后一周动员开始的背景下，属于顺势交易。
detected_at: 2026-04-03T02:19:14.068956
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:09.723264
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":11033,"pnl":10074.05421208546,"volume":1401940.7793889998,"user_name":"kangkang123","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":34684.79153587013,"avg_trade_size":346.8479153587013,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET","Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET","Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET","S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 2?","Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET","Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET","Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET","Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET","Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET","Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET"],"large_trades_count":0,"recent_trades":[]}

reasoning:
交易者从高频宏观策略突然转入大额地缘政治押注，具有明显的行为异动。但考虑到当前匈牙利民调公开透明且马扎尔领先已成为市场主旋律，0.67 的价格已充分反映了公开信息。该交易更像是基于近期马扎尔强劲势头的‘追涨’行为，而非掌握了未公开的选举内幕。


id: 1608290_0x9f34041abb0d8505d5eda2410924a84d2648f04c18af5e09e71d58c9f8857062-1951
market_id: 1608290
market_question: Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m?
condition_id: 0x0842399b1d5e90288b1bc17ce671e947dba095247347149f3c2749ef542556a6
transaction_hash: 0x9f34041abb0d8505d5eda2410924a84d2648f04c18af5e09e71d58c9f8857062-1951
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x9aeb534c42b58b21673d5e03e9da14fbd15b2729
detected_at: 2026-04-03T02:28:33.912465
market_resolved_at: 2026-04-22T08:02:46.566381
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2152,"pnl":57819.91823186239,"volume":2758453.169056,"user_name":"The-Joker","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-3572848-dded4616-ff9c-4ef8-9173-c2fc79c907f2.webp","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":84123.89605,"avg_trade_size":841.2389605,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz betw","Will Trump nationalize elections?","Will Scream 7 have the best domestic opening weeke","Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31?","Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in ","Will 40-44 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz betw","Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by March 31, 2","Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz betw","CBB mindshare all time high by March 31?","Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?"],"large_trades_count":2,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":22432.68486,"price":0.999,"title":"Will Scream 7 have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?","timestamp":1774994291},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":11421.329889999999,"price":0.9848733386509151,"title":"Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?","timestamp":1774906231}]}

reasoning:
交易者 The-Joker 具有极高的 PnL 和娱乐市场交易经验，且与另一位前 300 名的顶级玩家 (WordleAddict) 站在同一阵营。交易发生时间精准处于周四票房数据出炉、大众媒体发布前的真空期，极有可能掌握了比公开预测更精准的内部追踪数据（Tracking data）。

insider_evidence:
该交易者买入的 180m-190m 区间正好覆盖了 Variety 的预测值（186m），但由于影院商普遍乐观预测 1.9m+，买入 0.43 的 Yes 实际上是在对抗『超预期』的市场情绪。顶级聪明钱在消息真空期密集买入该区间，暗示周四实际表现可能仅维持在预期内，而非爆发性增长。


id: 1484894_0x6638c7c90284a85b4628f2ab82ea578c43c664f92283e1213689c5a5be03b080-1417
market_id: 1484894
market_question: US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
condition_id: 0xa9937410f8aae98cc6440a7480ad832be5a1a998afcf5a6e77c6f5aa4c0f259f
transaction_hash: 0x6638c7c90284a85b4628f2ab82ea578c43c664f92283e1213689c5a5be03b080-1417
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0xd9adcbd32369f4335885d6b8ffafdd2522a3a55c
detected_at: 2026-04-03T02:30:06.412595
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:12.840796
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":3,"total_volume":5933.148752599999,"avg_trade_size":1977.7162508666663,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?","Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?"],"large_trades_count":1,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5900.0,"price":0.59,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?","timestamp":1775183367}]}

reasoning:
该笔交易属于典型的'聪明钱'聚集信号。虽然交易者本人是未上榜的新地址（仅3次交易），但其交易方向（BUY No）与该市场当前 Top 5 中的顶级交易者（如排名 #85 的 SwissMiss 和排名 #601 的 fastviking）高度一致。过去 24 小时内，该市场出现了多笔由高 PnL 交易者发起的大额 No 押注，形成明显的头寸集群。基本面上，虽然 Axios 报道了停火谈判，但伊朗外交部公开否认并提出高额赔偿要求，且纽约时报报道了德黑兰附近的桥梁遭袭，局势实质上在恶化。最关键的是，交易发生在特朗普总统即将发表关于伊朗的'重大更新'演讲前夕，聪明钱集体押注'无停火'显示出对演讲内容或谈判破裂的高度预判。

insider_evidence:
1. 顶级聪明钱同步操作：历史信号显示排名 #85 (PnL $1.1M) 和 #374 (PnL $347k) 的交易者在同一价位密集买入 No。2. 社交媒体监测到'内幕钱包群组'正在分散建仓看空停火。3. 交易时机精准：发生在重大政策演讲前 12 小时内，且与地缘政治冲突升级（桥梁遇袭）的时间线吻合。


id: 1608291_0xcdbcac1d7a837df5a8644577f5332627f0f033a3751e9213009a22454d284f0f-1547
market_id: 1608291
market_question: Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m?
condition_id: 0xc35f382694bc66e67f6e0f0a8b28c992756960fd8ef2cfc6568d04df528d6ef1
transaction_hash: 0xcdbcac1d7a837df5a8644577f5332627f0f033a3751e9213009a22454d284f0f-1547
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x415569616a331f4106dc3a12e921de43b30335ce
insider_evidence: 交易时机精准处于周四实际票房数据产出与媒体公开报道之间的空白期；交易金额显著超过其历史平均水平；押注方向与高排名盈利玩家一致。
detected_at: 2026-04-03T02:35:24.602787
market_resolved_at: 2026-04-22T08:02:47.356458
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2492625,"pnl":-11853.66208727929,"volume":121917.81957400001,"user_name":"bunnyhunter","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":42,"total_volume":13779.325270000001,"avg_trade_size":328.0791730952381,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will \"Project Hail Mary\" Opening Weekend Box Offic","Will \"Scream 7\" Opening Weekend Box Office be grea","Will Project Hail Mary be the March film with the ","Will A Minecraft Movie be the 2025 film with the h","US government shutdown Saturday?","Will \"Project Hail Mary\" 2nd Weekend Box Office be","Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?","Will \"Hoppers\" Opening Weekend Box Office be betwe","Will \"Melania\" Opening Weekend Box Office be betwe","Will Zootopia 2 be the 2025 film with the highest "],"large_trades_count":0,"recent_trades":[]}

reasoning:
交易者虽然排名和胜率较低，但其高度垂直于电影票房市场。交易发生于北美周四深夜，此时业内初步数据已出炉。考虑到该片周三表现强劲但行业预测谨慎，1.9亿-2亿是一个非常具体的区间押注，反映了交易者可能获取了优于普通散户的周四实时票房走势反馈。


id: 1731274_0xbfa2a6658337437e312fd76e4f7895b6e800861527fa6c16c5fdd02b697b40c8-3306
market_id: 1731274
market_question: Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?
condition_id: 0xc517b6dcbae1b769dcd81a56c5bdde73ee5bf9b91e60c6dc5ebb1e6f2445a6d6
transaction_hash: 0xbfa2a6658337437e312fd76e4f7895b6e800861527fa6c16c5fdd02b697b40c8-3306
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xeb6789ca6b1425ff908a69a2a5469c38532cd696
reasoning: 交易者是专注于新协议发行的垂直领域专家。该笔交易是在社交媒体出现‘KPI调整’传闻后精准买入，其作为Yes方第一大户，正利用市场对严格KPI指标的刻板印象（导致低价）进行博弈。
insider_evidence: 交易时机与KPI调整传闻吻合。尽管TVL等公开数据极差，但交易者敢于在0.15的极低概率下重仓，暗示其可能掌握了KPI降低或内部测试进度的第一手解读。
detected_at: 2026-04-03T02:58:22.638082
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":4721,"pnl":24346.51432666207,"volume":849949.1072490001,"user_name":"ExitLiquidty","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":47691.60460451647,"avg_trade_size":476.9160460451647,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?","P2P FDV above $150M one day after launch?","P2P FDV above $15M one day after launch?","EdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch?","P2P FDV above $10M one day after launch?","Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026?","MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after laun","EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?","MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after laun","P2P FDV above $5M one day after launch?"],"large_trades_count":0,"recent_trades":[]}


id: 1640919_0x60bc6d1096b2352992a745fdf7a47b1cc59439bf263ce5c41346e64ceaea3f54-1816
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0x60bc6d1096b2352992a745fdf7a47b1cc59439bf263ce5c41346e64ceaea3f54-1816
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x7f9e2d1df78614564a70becc7fa14aa9a6623a0e
detected_at: 2026-04-03T03:11:01.261139
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":503,"pnl":258821.9463028719,"volume":3129565.4718489996,"user_name":"nojnn","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":260792.50080946065,"avg_trade_size":2607.9250080946063,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June","Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June","Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?","Netanyahu out by June 30?","Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?","Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30?","Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?","Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?","U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?","Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel"],"large_trades_count":9,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":30450.56895,"price":0.999,"title":"Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?","timestamp":1774994401},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":10327.042619999998,"price":0.999,"title":"Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?","timestamp":1774982071},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10327.039998,"price":0.9199999999251673,"title":"Netanyahu out by June 30?","timestamp":1774982089},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9999.999999,"price":0.9,"title":"Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?","timestamp":1774995489},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":9990.0,"price":0.999,"title":"Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?","timestamp":1774981855},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9989.999998,"price":0.8639108395959507,"title":"Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?","timestamp":1774981879},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":7992.0,"price":0.999,"title":"Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?","timestamp":1774984007},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7914.569997999999,"price":0.9199999999023573,"title":"Netanyahu out by June 30?","timestamp":1774995541},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5399.999997,"price":0.7299999999864815,"title":"Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?","timestamp":1775063675}]}

reasoning:
交易者作为 Top 600 资深玩家，在重大基建（大桥）被毁、地面部队实际抵境但官方封锁消息的真空期重仓。社交媒体监测到多个新创建的高额钱包同步押注，暗示存在某种非公开的军事动态或协调行动。尽管地面战争是高门槛决策，但 '特种部队进入' 这一规则漏洞极易被知情者利用。

insider_evidence:
1. 排名 #59、#75、#164、#167、#503 的鲸鱼群在 72 小时内高度同步买入。 2. 社交媒体曝出总计超过 $2,000,000 的新钱包资金流向该特定结果。 3. 交易发生在美军地面战备力量（MEU）秘密抵达中东的媒体爆料窗口期。


id: 1640919_0x36dcc96702bd3a78df5f04afc282f0b9be1b9d15b70c7031d5a917fe157a653b-2788
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0x36dcc96702bd3a78df5f04afc282f0b9be1b9d15b70c7031d5a917fe157a653b-2788
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x4f5edf1bbc61e308072e9f3e6d5d91361bbb6171
detected_at: 2026-04-03T03:16:11.428394
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
reasoning:
该交易发生在 2026 年 4 月 3 日，此时正值公开报道称美军已向中东大规模增兵，且 i24 News 援引官员称下周（4 月初）将具备进行『重大地面行动』的足够兵力。社交媒体（如 @defense_civil25）在交易前几小时开始流传美军特种部队『已在伊朗境内』执行任务的非官方消息。虽然交易者为未上榜的新钱包，但其单笔买入金额巨大且使其迅速成为该市场第 4 大持仓者，与 TheQuietRisk (#167) 和 SecondWindCapital (#59) 等顶级盈利鲸鱼站在同一阵营。交易者买入时价格为 0.6779，略高于当时市场 0.66 左右的平均水平，显示出强烈的成交意愿，可能是在博弈特种部队行动即将获得官方证实或地面行动正式开启的消息。

insider_evidence:
1. 交易时机与『下周开启地面行动』及『特种部队已潜入』的非官方舆论高度重合。2. 尽管是未上榜地址，但其持仓规模（> $6.7万）与顶级聪明钱一致，且在多个历史异常信号（如历史信号 1、2）出现后跟进，具有明显的追随『内幕流』特征。3. 公开新闻虽提到冲突升级，但对于『美军是否已踏上伊朗领土』这一核心判定点尚无官方定论，大额押注 Yes 具有极高的信息博弈成分。


id: 1723674_0xe2487cdf3ccd82603705e8dd7814dc898e07041db1f992718481b22e2c482332-2665
market_id: 1723674
market_question: Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?
condition_id: 0xadead580ed2e2961c9a7a3cb9db78daf96faf94bdc00a82ec217cfd6bf341bf0
transaction_hash: 0xe2487cdf3ccd82603705e8dd7814dc898e07041db1f992718481b22e2c482332-2665
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0xaab9f5e600a5dd88fe3a6f93313b180f6220a08d
insider_evidence: 无明确内幕证据。交易时机在公开协议达成之后，价格仍有 0.57，说明市场仍在消化政治风险，属于典型的'聪明钱对政治确定性的重仓押注'。
detected_at: 2026-04-03T03:21:04.749237
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:06:12.328737
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":1348,"pnl":93799.35261561042,"volume":4578268.406242,"user_name":"DirkDiggler67","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-586164-fadd494b-0bc9-4483-a177-e53fb7ce6355.png","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":58858.53374000001,"avg_trade_size":588.5853374000002,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Bernie Sanders vote \"Yea\" on the Department o","Will Thom Tillis vote \"Yea\" on the Department of H","Trump cabinet member out by March 31, 2026?","Will \"Sinners\" win 3 or fewer awards at the Oscars","Will the DHS shutdown last 80 days or more?","Will Amy Klobuchar vote \"Yea\" on the Department of","Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?","Will Lisa Murkowski vote \"Yea\" on the Department o","Tulsi Gabbard out by March 31?","Will the DHS shutdown end between April 9-12, 2026"],"large_trades_count":3,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":6266.3238,"price":0.242,"title":"Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?","timestamp":1774834886},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5633.136060000001,"price":0.5729803576132939,"title":"Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?","timestamp":1775185217},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5055.83935,"price":0.8998605225265953,"title":"Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?","timestamp":1774663611}]}

reasoning:
交易者基于已公开的'4月1日政治协议'和'4月13日众议院投票安排'进行高胜率博弈。其 PnL 反映了其在政治预测方面的专长，但与 Rank #31 鲸鱼持相反头寸，说明这是一场基于公开逻辑的市场博弈而非内幕信息。交易金额虽大，但符合其近期'滚雪球'式获利的风格。


id: 1640919_0xb01157cc959a3b219d245f43490596dc0a4f38b2f8bb78686f163a3be1f01bc0-1345
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0xb01157cc959a3b219d245f43490596dc0a4f38b2f8bb78686f163a3be1f01bc0-1345
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x7f9e2d1df78614564a70becc7fa14aa9a6623a0e
insider_evidence: 15分钟内出现多笔总计 $61k 的协同买入；交易者从宏观地缘博弈转向具体军事事件博弈；顶级聪明钱 (Top 100) 压倒性看多。
detected_at: 2026-04-03T03:26:58.974058
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":503,"pnl":258821.9463028719,"volume":3129565.4718489996,"user_name":"nojnn","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":270811.45686696004,"avg_trade_size":2708.1145686696004,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June","Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June","Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?","Netanyahu out by June 30?","Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?","Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30?","Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?","Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?","U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?","Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel"],"large_trades_count":11,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":30450.56895,"price":0.999,"title":"Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?","timestamp":1774994401},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":14514.32404,"price":0.9676216026666666,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?","timestamp":1775185715},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":14514.319999,"price":0.6699999999879981,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775185763},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":10327.042619999998,"price":0.999,"title":"Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?","timestamp":1774982071},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10327.039998,"price":0.9199999999251673,"title":"Netanyahu out by June 30?","timestamp":1774982089},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9999.999999,"price":0.9,"title":"Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?","timestamp":1774995489},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":7992.0,"price":0.999,"title":"Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?","timestamp":1774984007},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7914.569997999999,"price":0.9199999999023573,"title":"Netanyahu out by June 30?","timestamp":1774995541},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":7736.0,"price":0.967,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?","timestamp":1775186233},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7730.9132,"price":0.68,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775186279}]}

reasoning:
该交易者 (nojnn) 具有极高的历史胜率，且与排名 #75 和 #59 的顶级鲸鱼在同一时间窗口密集买入。考虑到当前公开新闻主要集中在空袭，69% 的隐含概率暗示交易者掌握了有关‘美军特种部队已秘密渗透’或‘地面搜救任务已启动’的非公开军事动向。披萨指数的异常和顶级鲸鱼的步调一致是核心证据。


id: 1640919_0x083f3e93abdf8b7eac8e565645c7a650b0fc2b8e880af480346c394ca434a04b-2516
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0x083f3e93abdf8b7eac8e565645c7a650b0fc2b8e880af480346c394ca434a04b-2516
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x15692550650de5817af4202681a4e38dcf34bf0c
insider_evidence: 聚集性信号极强：Rank #75, #503, #531 在同一日上午密集加仓 Yes。公开新闻仅提到‘准备地面行动’，但如此密集的博弈暗示具体‘进入’动作可能已经发生或在 24 小时内不可避免。
detected_at: 2026-04-03T04:01:55.519587
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":531,"pnl":246372.86770481349,"volume":8469581.647665001,"user_name":"AWice","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ApeCityLargeSmall2_647740_1718828754960.png","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":1944331.4056690002,"avg_trade_size":19443.314056690004,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024","Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME's Person of the Year for","Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Ele","Will Josh Shapiro be the 2024 Democratic VP nomine","Trump wins every swing state?","Will Andy Beshear be the 2024 Democratic VP nomine","Will Roy Cooper be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?","Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau confirmed relationsh","Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Ele","Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake "],"large_trades_count":55,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":168810.0,"price":0.993,"title":"Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?","timestamp":1722640518},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":166538.154,"price":0.95,"title":"Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?","timestamp":1721737066},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":157904.07708000002,"price":0.996,"title":"Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?","timestamp":1721655911},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":137612.2531,"price":0.7440397267779033,"title":"Will Josh Shapiro be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?","timestamp":1722640540},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":129131.6991,"price":0.51,"title":"Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?","timestamp":1723052060},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":106062.95034,"price":0.526,"title":"Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?","timestamp":1728408619},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":104573.9783,"price":0.9859805843605499,"title":"Fed rate cut by September 18?","timestamp":1726293725},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":85144.20427999999,"price":0.613,"title":"Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?","timestamp":1730478622},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":63950.81304,"price":0.618,"title":"Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?","timestamp":1730812805},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":55804.140790000005,"price":0.4428101950037418,"title":"Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?","timestamp":1730635794}]}

reasoning:
交易者 AWice 排名 #531，且该市场在 3 小时内集结了包括 Rank #75 在内的四位顶尖鲸鱼集体做多。结合公开情报中‘美军支持库尔德武装跨境行动’的传闻，这些交易者极可能掌握了特种部队（SOF）越境的确切时间点或已下达的秘密作战指令。


id: 1541748_0xe16042379ecbd7dae057c216b0f759e90340478b7e3175e5ef2d7255f5fdfed6-2157
market_id: 1541748
market_question: MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?
condition_id: 0x742fec2bf8157b780b2cf6b188076b9bd830122e665c216bc0f1e2d77e21cd23
transaction_hash: 0xe16042379ecbd7dae057c216b0f759e90340478b7e3175e5ef2d7255f5fdfed6-2157
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xdec1e24b17803e3c75fad8b818e41a26e22fefe6
insider_evidence: 1. 交易金额较均值突增 700%；2. 在官方发布偏利空声明后逆势买入 Yes；3. 市场价格与公开消息面严重背离（消息延迟 vs 价格上涨）。
detected_at: 2026-04-03T05:41:13.937566
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:18.954667
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2477591,"pnl":-4798.8713799355055,"volume":85001.05683700001,"user_name":"Bakani-Manager","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":66,"total_volume":14374.722690104822,"avg_trade_size":217.79882863795183,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET","Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?","Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET","Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on Apri","Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET","EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?","Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET","Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET","Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?","MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after laun"],"large_trades_count":0,"recent_trades":[]}

reasoning:
虽然交易者排名和 PnL 极差，但其交易行为发生了剧烈的‘质变’：从短线随机赌博转向重仓长线确定性事件。尤其是在官方发布‘不急于发币’的烟雾弹时，该交易者与多名专业交易者（如 ExitLiquidty）选择同步做多 Yes，且价格从 0.46 持续推升至 0.67，暗示其掌握了关于项目‘增长 KPI’已达成或 TGE 时间表的非公开利好。这种‘散户变大户’的突变是典型的内幕消息泄露征兆。


id: 1640919_0xa5d4038acdb30d60aae1ab39fce1a3ec63919813c0631205d00ce0c69a67e553-1336
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0xa5d4038acdb30d60aae1ab39fce1a3ec63919813c0631205d00ce0c69a67e553-1336
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0x05e26c775ecfe91b897d47f134c1bf5900ca6e12
detected_at: 2026-04-03T07:58:36.665027
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":376,"pnl":347926.4031449883,"volume":7860234.413899,"user_name":"Llalalala","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":884676.376818,"avg_trade_size":8846.76376818,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Iran leadership change by March 31?","Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 9, 2026?","Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Ir","US forces enter Iran by December 31?","Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February","Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by Ma","US forces enter Iran by March 14?","Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31","US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?","Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by Ap"],"large_trades_count":42,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":149474.33156999998,"price":0.8833268834669897,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1772851335},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":134646.785822,"price":0.6668287399269629,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1772851523},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":36550.53683999999,"price":0.591,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1772307697},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":34042.080799999996,"price":0.91,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?","timestamp":1774417023},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":25006.2708,"price":0.87,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1775157627},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":24070.96073,"price":0.8346140083347116,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?","timestamp":1772274361},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":23962.0707,"price":0.87,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774419517},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":21878.9017,"price":0.7945112675197076,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774465795},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":21878.8986,"price":0.78,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1774494487},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":20930.211935,"price":0.6799991935999484,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1772871347}]}

reasoning:
交易者 Llalalala 是该领域的资深专家，其交易时间精准锁定在特朗普重大军事演讲前夕。在全市场鲸鱼（包括前 100 名多位鲸鱼）一致看多地面战争的情况下，该交易者选择在 0.34 的极佳赔率位置重仓反投 'No'，极大概率提前获悉了演讲中关于 '彻底放弃地面进攻计划' 或 '提前宣布胜利撤军' 的具体措辞。

insider_evidence:
1. 交易方向与此前 9 笔鲸鱼信号完全相反，显示出明显的信息修正行为；2. 交易发生于 4 月 3 日 15:56 UTC，即白宫内部最终确定晚间演讲稿的时间窗口；3. 0.34 的入场价具有极高的风险回报比，且该交易者 PnL 极高，属于典型的内幕信息套利风格。


id: 1608291_0xdb3591759af97b03ca5b2aa1cf9819f9c27d1797ebae0aa2c64c50b4f439e9a5-2882
market_id: 1608291
market_question: Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m?
condition_id: 0xc35f382694bc66e67f6e0f0a8b28c992756960fd8ef2cfc6568d04df528d6ef1
transaction_hash: 0xdb3591759af97b03ca5b2aa1cf9819f9c27d1797ebae0aa2c64c50b4f439e9a5-2882
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x4da76bbf120899fc10fa6e0aad4bffdd19a7355e
insider_evidence: 交易时间精准卡在美东周五早场数据产出点；交易者风格突变（从 0.99 策略转入 0.35 策略）；与历史信号相比呈现明显的阶梯式建仓特征。
detected_at: 2026-04-03T08:21:53.373227
market_resolved_at: 2026-04-22T08:02:47.356458
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2618,"pnl":46888.09374260079,"volume":3637525.9168490004,"user_name":"degensruletheworld","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-5102381-cc078acb-59eb-4cd3-96ed-e362a4332d03.jpeg","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":321251.32123,"avg_trade_size":3212.5132123,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?","Trump announces end of military operations against","Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?","France, UK, or Germany military action against Ira","Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale","Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?","Will \"Project Hail Mary\" Opening Weekend Box Offic","US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?","Will \"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie\" Opening Weeken"],"large_trades_count":16,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":29760.0,"price":0.992,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1774541737},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":22736.59065,"price":0.999,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1774953559},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":19840.0,"price":0.992,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1774541665},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":16871.27349,"price":0.953,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774906049},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":14910.0,"price":0.994,"title":"Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774541685},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":14909.970179999998,"price":0.994,"title":"Netanyahu out by March 31?","timestamp":1774541675},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9950.0,"price":0.995,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1774805052},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":8899.9822,"price":0.89,"title":"Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?","timestamp":1774645387},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8700.0,"price":0.87,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774785270},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8600.0,"price":0.86,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","timestamp":1774465007}]}

reasoning:
该交易发生在周五早场数据回传的关键节点。交易者从高胜率策略转入价值发现策略，且愿意支付 50% 的溢价（相对于数小时前的价格），显示其极大概率获取了领先于媒体报道的周五实时票房跟踪数据。其主要对手方是排名更高的巨鲸，说明这是一场基于数据的顶级信息对决，而非散户盲目跟风。


id: 1517835_0xca1e8583d1f0cbc745498acbebe1669430a41d6290fe30db0b9defdbe1202813-1925
market_id: 1517835
market_question: Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
condition_id: 0xfa59099fbda1e0f0058ed3cbd57e939fe90ab6d9b57d53bd488bcadf75c191d4
transaction_hash: 0xca1e8583d1f0cbc745498acbebe1669430a41d6290fe30db0b9defdbe1202813-1925
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0xdbade4c82fb72780a0db9a38f821d8671aba9c95
insider_evidence: 交易者在官方依然维持乐观预期时，通过大规模买入 No Token 纠正市场对 '2-3周内结束' 这一低概率事件的过度定价。考虑到其在伊朗相关市场的长期盈利记录，该操作具有极高的信息可靠性。
detected_at: 2026-04-03T09:37:01.358929
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:06:04.812226
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":85,"pnl":1146443.4235957256,"volume":79451679.536479,"user_name":"SwissMiss","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/swissmiss_8da75aa4-05e7-444a-b87a-da4d38d2bb08_1741939822531.jpg","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":738669.6115260001,"avg_trade_size":7386.696115260001,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will there be no change in Fed interest rates afte","Will Clavicular be the top ranked Chad by March 31","Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?","Trump announces end of military operations against","US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April","Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack?","UFC 326: Rodolfo Bellato vs. Luke Fernandez (Light","US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?","Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?","Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?"],"large_trades_count":26,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":99800.0,"price":0.998,"title":"Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?","timestamp":1773587329},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":99800.0,"price":0.998,"title":"Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?","timestamp":1773556217},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":74925.0,"price":0.999,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1774935287},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":51000.00000000001,"price":0.68,"title":"UFC 326: Rodolfo Bellato vs. Luke Fernandez (Light Heavyweight, Early Prelims)","timestamp":1772922999},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":47760.0,"price":0.995,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1775031685},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":27467.469399999998,"price":0.98,"title":"Netanyahu out by March 31?","timestamp":1773587219},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":19500.0,"price":0.65,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","timestamp":1774778464},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":15182.27715,"price":0.995,"title":"Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?","timestamp":1774935223},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":14999.695921,"price":0.74998479605,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1773361063},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":12098.3893,"price":0.42777322525612355,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?","timestamp":1774888159}]}

reasoning:
该交易者为排名 #85 的地缘政治专家，其交易方向（No）直接反驳了特朗普总统公开给出的 '2-3周结束行动' 的官方时间表。交易时机精准捕捉到了伊朗击落美军战机这一关键升级事件，以及伊朗外长对谈判的公开否认。这并非简单的内幕泄露，而是顶尖交易者利用地缘政治情报对政治虚假承诺进行的套利。


id: 1640919_0xeb7453413fad2de70d32f7584f16c08ba54fdbde07d5ef75f73bc998315de5c4-1306
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0xeb7453413fad2de70d32f7584f16c08ba54fdbde07d5ef75f73bc998315de5c4-1306
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xa022ba0a68e11a78348382ff168601012d4d77f8
detected_at: 2026-04-03T11:19:36.706531
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2496931,"pnl":-43687.02708693924,"volume":3311399.6697800006,"user_name":"yungstalin","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-6756952-77c4b700-1a4c-4d36-970a-91b881f9bb77.webp","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":631428.37772,"avg_trade_size":6314.2837772,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US forces enter Iran by December 31?","Trump announces end of military operations against","Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by Ma","Iran leadership change by December 31?","US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","Will 'Whatever's Clever!' - Charlie Puth debut wee","US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?","Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by Ap","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?"],"large_trades_count":35,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":48020.0,"price":0.98,"title":"Will 'Whatever's Clever!' - Charlie Puth debut week album sales be between 25k and 30k?","timestamp":1774524651},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":44590.0,"price":0.91,"title":"Will 'Whatever's Clever!' - Charlie Puth debut week album sales be between 25k and 30k?","timestamp":1774524671},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":27260.0,"price":0.94,"title":"Nara Smith confirmed pregnant in 2026?","timestamp":1774524477},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":24717.3322,"price":0.956,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774765104},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":22149.9908,"price":0.94,"title":"Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?","timestamp":1774556677},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":20590.0,"price":0.71,"title":"Nara Smith confirmed pregnant in 2026?","timestamp":1774524491},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":20125.95,"price":0.78,"title":"US forces enter Iran by December 31?","timestamp":1774813748},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":18962.0,"price":0.998,"title":"Will 'Whatever's Clever!' - Charlie Puth debut week album sales be between 20k and 25k?","timestamp":1774523741},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":18620.0,"price":0.98,"title":"Will 'Whatever's Clever!' - Charlie Puth debut week album sales be between 15k and 20k?","timestamp":1774523919},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":17841.0,"price":0.939,"title":"Will 'Whatever's Clever!' - Charlie Puth debut week album sales be between 20k and 25k?","timestamp":1774523757}]}

reasoning:
交易者 yungstalin 排名极低且历史 PnL 为负，不符合典型『知情人士』特征。交易价格 0.68 与当前公开市场情绪（赔率约 66%）高度吻合。该市场存在极强的聪明钱共识（#59 和 #167 交易者持有近百万美元 Yes 仓位），该鲸鱼更像是在大势明确后的追随者。

insider_evidence:
4月2日美军已打击伊朗卡拉季（Karaj）桥梁，公开报道显示第31陆战远征队已在区域待命。特朗普政府的『史诗愤怒行动』（Operation Epic Fury）已进入地面战预备阶段，信息差已大部分被公开新闻抹平。


id: 1640919_0x0502a628cd51c44afffe169e6e1baf2afc0ff2e99ea3f5e31cca9c8ce936c0a4-1813
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0x0502a628cd51c44afffe169e6e1baf2afc0ff2e99ea3f5e31cca9c8ce936c0a4-1813
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xa022ba0a68e11a78348382ff168601012d4d77f8
detected_at: 2026-04-03T11:24:05.319186
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2496931,"pnl":-43687.02708693924,"volume":3311399.6697800006,"user_name":"yungstalin","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-6756952-77c4b700-1a4c-4d36-970a-91b881f9bb77.webp","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":652966.06372,"avg_trade_size":6529.6606372,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US forces enter Iran by December 31?","Trump announces end of military operations against","Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by Ma","Iran leadership change by December 31?","US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","Will 'Whatever's Clever!' - Charlie Puth debut wee","US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?","Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by Ap","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?"],"large_trades_count":35,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":48020.0,"price":0.98,"title":"Will 'Whatever's Clever!' - Charlie Puth debut week album sales be between 25k and 30k?","timestamp":1774524651},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":44590.0,"price":0.91,"title":"Will 'Whatever's Clever!' - Charlie Puth debut week album sales be between 25k and 30k?","timestamp":1774524671},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":27525.686,"price":0.68,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775215153},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":27260.0,"price":0.94,"title":"Nara Smith confirmed pregnant in 2026?","timestamp":1774524477},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":24717.3322,"price":0.956,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774765104},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":22149.9908,"price":0.94,"title":"Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?","timestamp":1774556677},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":20590.0,"price":0.71,"title":"Nara Smith confirmed pregnant in 2026?","timestamp":1774524491},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":20125.95,"price":0.78,"title":"US forces enter Iran by December 31?","timestamp":1774813748},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":18962.0,"price":0.998,"title":"Will 'Whatever's Clever!' - Charlie Puth debut week album sales be between 20k and 25k?","timestamp":1774523741},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":18620.0,"price":0.98,"title":"Will 'Whatever's Clever!' - Charlie Puth debut week album sales be between 15k and 20k?","timestamp":1774523919}]}

reasoning:
交易者在社交媒体出现关键‘现场视频’和‘俘获传闻’的黄金窗口期重仓。虽然信息在小范围内公开，但尚未被主流媒体证实且未在 Polymarket 价格中完全体现（仍有 30% 空间）。交易者表现出对地缘政治动态极高的敏感度和极速反应能力，可能拥有监控特定前线频道的情报渠道。

insider_evidence:
在 19:19 连续两笔累计 $6.8 万美元的大额买入，精准契合了关于胡齐斯坦省美军直升机入境的非官方报道激增的时间点。且历史信号显示，多名高排名盈账户在同时间段密集入场，形成强烈的‘知情者集群’效应。


id: 665374_0x3044d791ed8a9b454f25e1fc74349b8429367cd20fc1dfdaabc880b70a5f5a4f-1612
market_id: 665374
market_question: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
condition_id: 0x5db999fad322cea2914535aae5517060c3f80ad6d8c0231cde2124a434d16846
transaction_hash: 0x3044d791ed8a9b454f25e1fc74349b8429367cd20fc1dfdaabc880b70a5f5a4f-1612
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xbc43a2f0deb85ba4ad316300762972089c911540
insider_evidence: 该钱包在 2024-2026 年间多次在美军事行动前数小时精准建仓，被 CNN 等机构标记为疑似关联情报系统的‘内幕钱包’。
detected_at: 2026-04-03T13:06:13.741893
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":1106,"pnl":114307.97831666145,"volume":1525248.3527499998,"user_name":"westminster","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":721337.9336569998,"avg_trade_size":7213.3793365699985,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?","US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?","US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?","US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?","Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15","Iran leadership change by March 31?","Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February","US forces enter Iran by March 31?","US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?"],"large_trades_count":38,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":94863.69546,"price":0.9486369546,"title":"Netanyahu out by March 31?","timestamp":1773528727},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":49950.0,"price":0.999,"title":"Netanyahu out by March 31?","timestamp":1775087845},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":47392.563220000004,"price":0.9478512644,"title":"Netanyahu out by March 31?","timestamp":1773532391},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":38811.57003,"price":0.9981213659796598,"title":"US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?","timestamp":1772265963},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":22254.43346,"price":0.9980734722763517,"title":"Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?","timestamp":1772266571},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":19063.1963,"price":0.953159815,"title":"Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?","timestamp":1772980047},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":18951.69998,"price":0.947584999,"title":"Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?","timestamp":1772291033},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":16016.632539999999,"price":0.998,"title":"Netanyahu out by March 31?","timestamp":1774920267},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":15294.03064,"price":0.998,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","timestamp":1772265727},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":14970.0,"price":0.998,"title":"US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?","timestamp":1772265747}]}

reasoning:
该交易者 (westminster) 已被多方媒体调查证实具备精准预测美军打击时机的能力，极具内幕嫌疑。其在 4 月 6 日霍尔木兹海峡最后通牒到期前 3 天重仓押注‘建立领土控制’，与可能的军事行动升级窗口高度吻合。


id: 1818148_0xc9a06b7570b3ce3d1a30935de11f0441d1b0530b94ad061746ae6441dbd8384e-1504
market_id: 1818148
market_question: Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch?
condition_id: 0x94e0f8ff4f0ff64a3f232c6325d69ed10efcad407779ae405e22cff71cc34393
transaction_hash: 0xc9a06b7570b3ce3d1a30935de11f0441d1b0530b94ad061746ae6441dbd8384e-1504
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0xfe6c976ef0805ff80fd0fad65115022404b969b7
detected_at: 2026-04-03T13:37:31.325856
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":4599,"pnl":25198.628843845283,"volume":378715.35936699994,"user_name":"porsche911fund","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":82,"total_volume":145399.71592200018,"avg_trade_size":1773.1672673414655,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch?","MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after laun","Over $1.6B committed to the Monad public sale?","USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?","Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?","Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?","Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? ","Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30? ","Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?","Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch"],"large_trades_count":7,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":19076.8688,"price":0.8963245039335747,"title":"Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?","timestamp":1761828295},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":18025.83448,"price":0.8934074036626769,"title":"Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?","timestamp":1765128377},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":11999.926599999999,"price":0.41814461132001046,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774978253},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":7332.7916,"price":0.73,"title":"Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?","timestamp":1770212636},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6449.999999,"price":0.5031444600819637,"title":"Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?","timestamp":1764947523},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":6329.230799999999,"price":0.6115334736907196,"title":"Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?","timestamp":1770552087},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6018.629999,"price":0.4671832991095341,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1774445439}]}

reasoning:
该交易者是 FDV 类市场的资深玩家。在 Genius 这种背景显赫的项目中，押注其 FDV 不足 $100M 属于极度异常的 Contravariant 策略。$100M 估值对于该量级的项目通常是'地板价'。由于交易发生在 TGE 前夕，且交易者是 No 方头号大户，这种逆势行为极大概率是基于对代币供应量统计方式或团队定价意向的内部了解。

insider_evidence:
交易者在 Top 5 看多方均为亏损或低排名账户的情况下，以最大空头身份入场，且时机精准卡在 Season 1 结束前一周。同时，公开市场（Aspecta）给出过 $30M 的低限估值，这种极端分歧是内幕或专业情报介入的典型特征。


id: 567560_0x30871164f6cbe13e03ed4b8a1b669472954cdff24f23de343a9d6845b348263c-1371
market_id: 567560
market_question: Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
condition_id: 0x5ec80dc407457301f282a2b44341947afc700dfaa7923d14c8894e04bc63b03f
transaction_hash: 0x30871164f6cbe13e03ed4b8a1b669472954cdff24f23de343a9d6845b348263c-1371
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xde92291f366730da5f019251cc31384d3bef5e10
insider_evidence: 无明确证据。交易金额虽然较大，但在该交易者的资金承受范围内；其政治市场经验不足，更偏向于高赔率博弈而非内幕驱动。
detected_at: 2026-04-03T13:40:16.015350
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:08.846246
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":16757,"pnl":6068.208380099815,"volume":3059230.205545,"user_name":"dumbgambler7","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-4044858-6be0da27-588e-4735-a0fd-f37a35ee5783.webp","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":287039.25565974944,"avg_trade_size":2870.3925565974946,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO3)","Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET","Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after Dece","Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in November?","Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET","Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET","Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET","Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET","Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025?","US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?"],"large_trades_count":15,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":28068.7855,"price":0.8276325500412065,"title":"Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 in November?","timestamp":1763122098},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":21302.3145,"price":0.6716078973768521,"title":"Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 in November?","timestamp":1763147868},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":21294.546000000002,"price":0.78,"title":"Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025?","timestamp":1765855997},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":16658.0497,"price":0.7981961195268529,"title":"Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 in November?","timestamp":1763121740},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":16083.774399999998,"price":0.5303387568189252,"title":"Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in November?","timestamp":1763451695},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":13496.5307,"price":0.1786680473975936,"title":"Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November?","timestamp":1763148568},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":13110.6438,"price":0.41,"title":"Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in November?","timestamp":1763058358},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":12627.710000000001,"price":0.2198187863384744,"title":"Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in November?","timestamp":1763042286},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":9790.25,"price":0.5,"title":"Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in November?","timestamp":1763454593},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7950.0,"price":0.53,"title":"Stars vs. Canadiens","timestamp":1763067246}]}

reasoning:
该交易者历史背景主要为加密货币波段交易，缺乏政治内幕证据。0.34 的买入价格处于近期低点，属于在民调利空消息密集释放后的反向博弈。虽然排名第 47 的顶尖交易者此前也买入 Yes，但该鲸鱼更像是在跟随赔率波动的超跌反弹策略。


id: 1517835_0x435fe48c3b747ec61ecabfaf09a2d4c40fa31d09777067e790f482ae1c3b94bc-1125
market_id: 1517835
market_question: Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
condition_id: 0xfa59099fbda1e0f0058ed3cbd57e939fe90ab6d9b57d53bd488bcadf75c191d4
transaction_hash: 0x435fe48c3b747ec61ecabfaf09a2d4c40fa31d09777067e790f482ae1c3b94bc-1125
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0x8dd4b4b5495fa2d468568110690e20023c03e792
detected_at: 2026-04-03T13:51:55.479643
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:06:04.812226
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":61732,"pnl":1130.1181217119406,"volume":37029.95495200001,"user_name":"0x8dd4B4B5495fa2D468568110690e20023C03e792-1773450492085","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":19,"total_volume":30569.969899999996,"avg_trade_size":1608.9457842105262,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?","Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?","Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?","Trump announces end of military operations against"],"large_trades_count":0,"recent_trades":[]}

reasoning:
该交易者虽非顶级排名，但其交易时机精准卡在'地面行动计划'流出和战机被击落的报道之后。这笔交易并非单纯的内幕交易，而是对军事泄密和突发战报的极速反应。由于其交易规模远超个人平均水平，且与顶级交易者 SwissMiss 步调一致，显示其极大概率掌握了五角大楼内部关于行动周期延长的准确评估（即 4 月底前不可能官方宣布结束）。

insider_evidence:
1. 特朗普 4 月 1 日的‘2-3周结束’承诺被 4 月 3 日五角大楼‘数周地面行动’的计划取代；2. 顶级交易者 SwissMiss 同向大额跟进；3. 战机损毁报告预示战争进入更深层次阶段，无法短期抽身。


id: 1484894_0xea8aa34314f792ef5562f2a6871db137db2f89fef11718753605e51de08e9d8d-2231
market_id: 1484894
market_question: US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
condition_id: 0xa9937410f8aae98cc6440a7480ad832be5a1a998afcf5a6e77c6f5aa4c0f259f
transaction_hash: 0xea8aa34314f792ef5562f2a6871db137db2f89fef11718753605e51de08e9d8d-2231
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0xcb8958d949be35a5727225f176c4b60ad97f8803
insider_evidence: 在特朗普 4月3日晚间关于伊朗局势的演讲开始前 3 小时，进行了一笔与近期公开强硬外交辞令一致、且与顶级聪明钱共识同步的大额反向重仓交易。
detected_at: 2026-04-03T13:53:41.104139
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:12.840796
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":10204,"pnl":10868.953517261192,"volume":523753.34352399997,"user_name":"4ndr3m4c13l","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-6443888-5fb27cc1-415f-42f6-a552-956944981b5a.webp","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":57,"total_volume":426404.9883484294,"avg_trade_size":7480.789269270691,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET","Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET","Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET","Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET","Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET","Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET","Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET","US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET","US forces enter Iran by March 31?"],"large_trades_count":18,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":73282.7251,"price":0.995,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1775056397},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":33633.3913,"price":0.4687465033963622,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775056423},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":31928.4469,"price":0.209506636755564,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775224187},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":31928.439999,"price":0.6379414702833099,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?","timestamp":1775224215},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":29039.109998000004,"price":0.8722570142185159,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774819878},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":29039.109199999995,"price":0.8633383081855545,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","timestamp":1774819866},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":21275.0149,"price":0.5,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775056423},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":18374.3238,"price":0.4823105296397618,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775056423},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":12514.29318,"price":0.999,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 14?","timestamp":1773555767},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":12514.289998,"price":0.6103682522131743,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1773555787}]}

reasoning:
交易时机极其敏感（总统重大战争演说前3小时）。虽然伊朗外长的强硬表态是公开信息，但交易者精准的资金腾挪和割肉离场后反向重仓的行为，显示其对即将到来的演说调性有较强的预判或掌握了非公开的政策风向。顶级鲸鱼 SwissMiss 的同步站队增加了信号的可信度。


id: 567561_0x7a20b8b6748cd8ffe0420b2ba99a98bce6b181c4af8c93fc4262821ace29e601-807
market_id: 567561
market_question: Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
condition_id: 0x1480b819d03d4b6388d70e848b0384adf38c38d955cb783cdbcf6d4a436dee14
transaction_hash: 0x7a20b8b6748cd8ffe0420b2ba99a98bce6b181c4af8c93fc4262821ace29e601-807
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xf5592765133941c40c77e52bc56bbe7ec167f462
reasoning: 该交易者具有典型的全领域大额赌性特征，历史 PnL 为负。其买入价格完全符合当时公开的独立民调和外部预测市场价格。近期多个大额信号连续看多，表明市场正在根据大选临近的公开舆论调整赔率，而非内幕驱动。
insider_evidence: 无。交易时机处于大选冲刺阶段，民调领先已是公开新闻。
detected_at: 2026-04-03T14:05:34.672789
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:09.723264
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2501786,"pnl":-37555.47101588228,"volume":2554828.966882,"user_name":"0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":378009.07711500005,"avg_trade_size":3780.0907711500004,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end","Lakers vs. Bulls","US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?","Will Germany join the Board of Peace?","Pelicans vs. Magic","Trail Blazers vs. Wizards","Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?","Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST","Will Brazil join the Board of Peace?","Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) "],"large_trades_count":25,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":20991.449999,"price":0.5894130396336921,"title":"Lakers vs. Cavaliers","timestamp":1769618760},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":20141.449999,"price":0.6899999999982871,"title":"Trail Blazers vs. Wizards","timestamp":1769541549},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":16750.0,"price":0.67,"title":"Thunder vs. Timberwolves","timestamp":1769727420},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":16100.7343,"price":0.3651528174223927,"title":"US government shutdown Saturday?","timestamp":1769697656},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":16007.589993,"price":0.8972734195940141,"title":"Lakers vs. Clippers","timestamp":1769141506},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":12544.989995,"price":0.97551449161522,"title":"Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B","timestamp":1774213315},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":11999.999998,"price":0.5698877273496328,"title":"US government shutdown Saturday?","timestamp":1769669182},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":10137.5036,"price":0.8600390251848182,"title":"Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?","timestamp":1769727140},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9999.999999,"price":0.42485439300597166,"title":"76ers vs. Hornets","timestamp":1769407264},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9999.999993,"price":0.9683468924096105,"title":"Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B","timestamp":1774213297}]}


id: 665374_0x854b7c8a990d763af1292f2b977806c1a5865c42bcd15fc87c0994f6677d8969-946
market_id: 665374
market_question: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
condition_id: 0x5db999fad322cea2914535aae5517060c3f80ad6d8c0231cde2124a434d16846
transaction_hash: 0x854b7c8a990d763af1292f2b977806c1a5865c42bcd15fc87c0994f6677d8969-946
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x6087e2651febbab9589e490cb5947f6a1ca3900c
insider_evidence: 无。交易时机完全匹配当日 viral 社交媒体动态和主流媒体头条。
detected_at: 2026-04-03T14:15:34.889513
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2498625,"pnl":-71682.9382544165,"volume":2335911.408186,"user_name":"sdffdsgdagsg","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":65833.637887,"avg_trade_size":658.3363788700001,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy ","Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at th","US x Cuba military clash in 2026?","Russian strike on Poland by June 30?","Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?","Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?","Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Ele","US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?","2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House","Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at "],"large_trades_count":2,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":13653.0933,"price":0.77,"title":"US forces enter Iran by December 31?","timestamp":1775214789},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5156.166400000001,"price":0.56,"title":"Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?","timestamp":1775143181}]}

reasoning:
该交易发生在 3500 名美军增援和特朗普考虑地面战的新闻公开传播数小时后。交易者历史记录极差（亏损 7 万美元），且正在对同一主题进行多市场盲目押注。市场顶尖 PnL 交易者（Rank #31, #124）目前全部站在对手方（No），暗示这笔交易更多是受新闻驱动的情绪化博弈，而非内幕驱动。


id: 1484894_0xa0178e720a6affc76775d8425d7a2a686b3a9db95f38382c20a215a5fb84d924-1753
market_id: 1484894
market_question: US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
condition_id: 0xa9937410f8aae98cc6440a7480ad832be5a1a998afcf5a6e77c6f5aa4c0f259f
transaction_hash: 0xa0178e720a6affc76775d8425d7a2a686b3a9db95f38382c20a215a5fb84d924-1753
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x44de2a52d8d2d3ddcf39d58e315a10df53ba9c08
insider_evidence: 无明确内幕证据。交易者在 4月30日和5月31日 两个相关市场间切换仓位，符合对冲和滚动头寸的行为特征。
detected_at: 2026-04-03T14:20:24.211542
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:12.840796
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":690,"pnl":194777.8272911647,"volume":1815926.5664949997,"user_name":"BlueHorseshoe86","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-4385332-c6464ffc-ad9a-4691-bcbb-0388b41f870b.jpeg","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":226122.64707,"avg_trade_size":2261.2264707,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Maduro out in 2025?","Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on Dece","Maduro out by March 31, 2026?","US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on Dece","Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025?","US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","Maduro out by February 28, 2026?","US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?","Maduro out by January 31, 2026?"],"large_trades_count":7,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":61577.33103,"price":0.999,"title":"Maduro out by March 31, 2026?","timestamp":1767438527},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":15595.895499999999,"price":0.29,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","timestamp":1774815984},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":11118.85002,"price":0.999,"title":"Maduro out by February 28, 2026?","timestamp":1767438393},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10440.0,"price":0.36,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","timestamp":1773844299},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5695.9644,"price":0.38,"title":"Maduro out by March 31, 2026?","timestamp":1766372124},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5550.0,"price":0.37,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","timestamp":1773849813},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":5401.2005,"price":0.30006669444444445,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","timestamp":1774806170}]}

reasoning:
交易者是一个经验丰富且刚获得巨额盈利的高排名玩家。虽然交易方向与今日美军战机被击落的利空新闻相反，但高度吻合特朗普昨日公布的'2-3周撤军'时间表。该交易更像是基于公开政治倾向的博弈，而非对秘密协议签署的提前获悉。


id: 1640919_0xb865984bf3144a6c3bdfedb4f9270c9f23342769911623e89a0117215c97e551-828
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0xb865984bf3144a6c3bdfedb4f9270c9f23342769911623e89a0117215c97e551-828
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0x471b9d2e47c2c578ff7dafe00b596876c00db18f
insider_evidence: 无。搜救行动已在主流媒体（Axios, CBS）公开报道，该交易者并无信息领先优势。
detected_at: 2026-04-03T16:35:17.581729
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2501157,"pnl":-25394.06078811561,"volume":2202125.3346669995,"user_name":"hedgetrimma","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":63848.150118999976,"avg_trade_size":638.4815011899998,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Trump out as President in 2025?","Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?","Will Arch Manning win the Heisman Trophy?","Will \"DtMF\" be played first at the Super Bowl half","Will Miami Florida win the 2026 College Football N","Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?","Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?","Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale?","Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale?","Monad market cap (FDV) >$5B one day after launch?"],"large_trades_count":2,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7900.0,"price":0.79,"title":"Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale?","timestamp":1763860381},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5073.3,"price":0.19996600424207936,"title":"Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale?","timestamp":1763851461}]}

reasoning:
交易者在公开新闻已经证实美军特种部队进入伊朗执行搜救的情况下逆势买入 No，这与市场当前的强预期完全背离。该交易者长期处于大幅亏损状态，本次大额下单更像是对技术性细节（如搜救是否算‘进入’）的盲目对赌，而非掌握内幕。


id: 1466016_0xea448e7a9d8a5614cd1911519a62da28ebe8edbbc56ca415608550d35026810b-770
market_id: 1466016
market_question: US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
condition_id: 0x80059ff4e694f878c0498f6f3a067ee7ca62dc2fc46251a4287b58355ce47bc5
transaction_hash: 0xea448e7a9d8a5614cd1911519a62da28ebe8edbbc56ca415608550d35026810b-770
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x7b02b2bac2a30ed5e40b7094e734f4c3dc2a4991
detected_at: 2026-04-03T17:09:01.887765
market_resolved_at: 2026-04-22T08:02:23.984962
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":286,"pnl":442381.3520882865,"volume":25985543.749464005,"user_name":"foodenjoyer","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-5560611-d85e5215-b379-4aef-a93c-e95b42d9dcbd.webp","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":942944.4281679379,"avg_trade_size":9429.44428167938,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will there be no change in Fed interest rates afte","Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?","Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps af","Will Solana reach $90 on March 11?","Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of Marc","Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February","US forces enter Iran by December 31?","Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed ch","Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?","Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March?"],"large_trades_count":35,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":266871.29772000003,"price":0.996,"title":"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?","timestamp":1772643837},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":54701.19648,"price":0.996,"title":"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?","timestamp":1772643845},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":54179.0784,"price":0.72,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1773698071},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":54147.6,"price":0.78,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1774560257},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":44872.250159999996,"price":0.996,"title":"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?","timestamp":1772643847},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":41830.237080000006,"price":0.996,"title":"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?","timestamp":1772643847},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":31684.103999999996,"price":0.72,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1773880747},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":19271.803839999997,"price":0.986,"title":"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?","timestamp":1772682399},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":19269.47071,"price":0.9447055428333022,"title":"Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?","timestamp":1772324539},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":19163.28848,"price":0.9804455390987895,"title":"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?","timestamp":1772804439}]}

reasoning:
交易者在美军战机被击落、局势极度紧张的利空时刻逆势抄底。考虑到该交易者（foodenjoyer）在地缘政治市场的成功历史，以及该市场看多方由多位 Top 100 顶级盈亏排名交易者组成的“聪明钱集群”，这极不可能是盲目投机。

insider_evidence:
该鲸鱼与排名 #47、#124 的顶级大户在极低概率（19%）下达成共识，且建仓时间精准卡在战机坠毁后的市场恐慌低点，暗示其可能获取了关于搜救进展或第三方（卡塔尔/中国/巴基斯坦）斡旋的初步积极信号。


id: 1469737_0xfa064be92961f92f327729e7b68d80cf40fe9b9d154b9033429f195287f03954-1491
market_id: 1469737
market_question: Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
condition_id: 0x25fb28382075f418a944a781a9f8840e2f541152eea0d9798d1cabfa1466adbb
transaction_hash: 0xfa064be92961f92f327729e7b68d80cf40fe9b9d154b9033429f195287f03954-1491
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xa8948e141de09e8ed204681e4beb4d2473075324
insider_evidence: 该交易者连续三天在大额舆情波动点进行同方向累仓（3月31日、4月2日、4月4日），表明其掌握了某种稳定的信息源或具有极强的判断一致性。
detected_at: 2026-04-03T17:21:18.985630
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":3321,"pnl":36531.39159923045,"volume":546945.7411699999,"user_name":"rkrnru","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":520757.5314890001,"avg_trade_size":5207.57531489,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?","Will Lee Jae-myung win 50-55% of the vote in the S","Will the Republican Party control the House after ","Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%?","Will the Democratic Party control the House after ","Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Electio","50% tariff goes into effect on EU by July 9?","Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral elect","Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?","Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2"],"large_trades_count":38,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":31947.60078,"price":0.9851990337848423,"title":"Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%?","timestamp":1762329845},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":27883.79045,"price":0.995,"title":"Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?","timestamp":1773189103},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":27061.599994,"price":0.9656610521899157,"title":"Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?","timestamp":1772873567},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":20741.809996,"price":0.6396351772174235,"title":"Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%?","timestamp":1762310913},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":20741.80326,"price":0.998,"title":"Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?","timestamp":1762310875},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":15652.056199999999,"price":0.979,"title":"Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?","timestamp":1751159816},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":15646.019996999998,"price":0.9240085862131988,"title":"Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2025?","timestamp":1749234720},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":15362.225399999998,"price":0.9072487533042457,"title":"Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2025?","timestamp":1749368847},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":15028.54624,"price":0.9900084610104465,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?","timestamp":1751125344},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":15028.539998,"price":0.9399999999712281,"title":"Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?","timestamp":1751125412}]}

reasoning:
交易者在西方媒体盛传莫杰塔巴‘昏迷/重伤’的负面舆论窗口期，精准逆势买入 Yes。这反映出其对伊朗官方健康声明的信任，或对‘元首’定义（只要未下台即算 Yes）的深刻理解。这更像是一位熟悉地缘政治模式的高手在利用市场恐慌进行套利，而非单纯的内幕消息。


id: 1640919_0x76d18627eafd8631f45fad9f65899b90c2a43290447927297045b15ce3d34d12-2118
market_id: 1640919
market_question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
condition_id: 0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246
transaction_hash: 0x76d18627eafd8631f45fad9f65899b90c2a43290447927297045b15ce3d34d12-2118
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0x7c4719cdf8b7e084b7dc7b42f63ee0c320a2882a
insider_evidence: 无。交易者历史记录显示其频繁参与高风险政治/地缘市场且表现不佳；交易方向与聪明钱（如 TheQuietRisk, SecondWindCapital）完全相反。
detected_at: 2026-04-03T17:37:28.467340
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:05:51.369832
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2479800,"pnl":-4507.528211360352,"volume":237700.227019,"user_name":"NJFgambler76","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-1443328-bd6031f9-2f62-42b7-8a45-3aa477d9384a.jpeg","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":76,"total_volume":76766.47897360794,"avg_trade_size":1010.085249652736,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?","US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?","US forces in Venezuela by October 31?","Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?","Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET","US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?","US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?","US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?","US strikes Iran by October 31?","US x Venezuela military engagement by December 23?"],"large_trades_count":7,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":13061.67348,"price":0.996,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1775024043},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7833.769994,"price":0.8794532500671124,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774830980},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7775.149998000001,"price":0.9949999999385736,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1774766622},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":7689.66352,"price":0.994,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1774830914},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":7684.0100600000005,"price":0.9443969288704369,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774766402},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6162.709995,"price":0.8699999999872946,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774558615},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5514.629956,"price":0.9838814787575728,"title":"US x Venezuela military engagement by December 23?","timestamp":1766356634}]}

reasoning:
该交易者 (NJFgambler76) 排名极低且累计盈亏为负 (-$4,500)，属于典型的零售型大户。其买入 'No' 的行为是在对抗市场主流共识（当前 Yes 赔率高达 86.5%）。虽然 $13k 的金额对其个人而言较大，但在该市场中，相比 Top 5 持仓者（多为排名靠前的聪明钱，持仓额达 $10w-$60w）而言规模较小。搜寻发现美军已在 3 月底抵达该地区并进行过打击，市场定价已充分反映了紧张局势，该交易者更像是在进行博彩式的反向押注，而非掌握内幕信息。


id: 1517835_0xe90cff6346392a0f46a30af54978f8f01d5e964c01b39d466428d964f77c03f6-2255
market_id: 1517835
market_question: Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
condition_id: 0xfa59099fbda1e0f0058ed3cbd57e939fe90ab6d9b57d53bd488bcadf75c191d4
transaction_hash: 0xe90cff6346392a0f46a30af54978f8f01d5e964c01b39d466428d964f77c03f6-2255
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0x96ce400bdae8cda16119ed695c22336774ff16ba
insider_evidence: 无。交易时机滞后于公开新闻，且交易者过往胜率极低。
detected_at: 2026-04-03T18:06:39.149654
market_resolved_at: 2026-05-04T14:06:04.812226
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2439394,"pnl":-1886.3196099756221,"volume":78903.38325700001,"user_name":"0x96CE400bDaE8Cda16119ED695C22336774FF16Ba-1774517049097","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":23,"total_volume":33658.702778,"avg_trade_size":1463.4218599130434,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Trump announces end of military operations against","Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of J","Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of A","Will Google have the best AI model at the end of A","Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?","US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","Will Google have the best AI model at the end of J","Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?","Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET"],"large_trades_count":3,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9999.999998000001,"price":0.9422972919224081,"title":"Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774694349},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9600.0,"price":0.96,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","timestamp":1774593431},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":6047.6163400000005,"price":0.9747585256486714,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","timestamp":1774693141}]}

reasoning:
该交易发生在重大地缘政治事件（F-15E战机被击落及搜救行动）完全公开之后。交易者排名极低且历史PnL为负，更像是一个在利空新闻刺激下进行追高操作的普通散户鲸鱼，而非掌握内幕信息的内部人士。买入价格 0.67 较之前已大幅溢价，反映出市场已消化了大部分负面消息。


id: 1484894_0x7ab82daf3e30a8a3b15212ce9e85ae3d30601cd75adcf72e4cfdcf82a18f41fc-1456
market_id: 1484894
market_question: US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
condition_id: 0xa9937410f8aae98cc6440a7480ad832be5a1a998afcf5a6e77c6f5aa4c0f259f
transaction_hash: 0x7ab82daf3e30a8a3b15212ce9e85ae3d30601cd75adcf72e4cfdcf82a18f41fc-1456
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x35bbbad2415fe5e39b12da9a316cdc80b022009b
insider_evidence: 无。交易时机处于利空消息释放后的价格低点，符合逆向交易风格；且其多空双向持仓证明其对结果并无确定性把握。
detected_at: 2026-04-03T18:23:44.246209
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:12.840796
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":883,"pnl":144595.8454838348,"volume":28086963.214578994,"user_name":"MisTKy","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-5070263-f290eb6b-11db-423d-b532-cd773195842b.jpg","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":400606.4748,"avg_trade_size":4006.0647480000002,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by April 15?","Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pak","Trump announces end of military operations against","Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?","US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?","Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April","US forces enter Iran by April 30?","Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?"],"large_trades_count":26,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":36272.60400000001,"price":0.93,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?","timestamp":1775092663},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":35600.0,"price":0.89,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775232713},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":31831.9848,"price":0.88,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775232369},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":14379.7668,"price":0.84,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775229747},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":14285.2448,"price":0.92,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?","timestamp":1775081643},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":13800.0,"price":0.92,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?","timestamp":1775078747},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":11483.1763,"price":0.19,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","timestamp":1775047601},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":11155.7952,"price":0.88,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775231825},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":10599.904709999999,"price":0.963,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?","timestamp":1775093347},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10410.48,"price":0.36,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","timestamp":1775047609}]}

reasoning:
交易者 MisTKy 是一名典型的高频大额波段交易员。其在 0.35 价格买入 Yes 属于针对近期军事冲突升级（F-15被击落、桥梁被炸）导致的赔率回升进行的逆势加仓。结合其同时持有大量 '美军入伊' 的 Yes 仓位，这更像是一组针对中东局势极端波动性的跨式套利/对冲，而非基于特定内幕消息的单向押注。


id: 1608291_0xe2d06945b44858e1c96106d23960dc2be7d8c1a3b21b378b7bcd02823a189b5d-1553
market_id: 1608291
market_question: Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m?
condition_id: 0xc35f382694bc66e67f6e0f0a8b28c992756960fd8ef2cfc6568d04df528d6ef1
transaction_hash: 0xe2d06945b44858e1c96106d23960dc2be7d8c1a3b21b378b7bcd02823a189b5d-1553
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xe2b1fc269d0c2e27da11fadd1d9596fe28227d2a
detected_at: 2026-04-03T18:39:03.019080
market_resolved_at: 2026-04-22T08:02:47.356458
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":711,"pnl":188279.28990139725,"volume":11009531.852243999,"user_name":"New.Jeans","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/a8f070eb41e2830665e63ccc0642cac6_New-Jeans_1688928761832.png","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":78107.266653,"avg_trade_size":781.07266653,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale ","Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic preside","Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing","Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and","Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top gross","Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Prim","Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral e","2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House","US forces enter Iran by December 31?","US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?"],"large_trades_count":0,"recent_trades":[]}

reasoning:
该交易者 (New.Jeans) 排名第 711 位，拥有超过 $18.8 万的盈亏记录和千万级别的交易量，属于典型的高阶交易者。交易发生在周五晚间/周六凌晨（UTC时间 4月4日），此时周五的北美票房初步数据通常已在业内小范围流传（如 Comscore 的实时追踪数据或各大院线的内部简报）。公开新闻（如 Variety）在周三开画后曾提到制片方保守估计 1.86 亿，但院线经理更看好 1.9 亿至 2 亿的区间。该鲸鱼选择在价格上涨趋势中（从历史信号的 0.23 涨至 0.39）重仓押注该特定区间，显示其对周五实际数据的强势信心，而非仅仅是技术性博弈。

insider_evidence:
交易时机精准捕捉了周五票房数据出炉前的窗口期。公开市场信息仅显示 1.9-2.0 亿是一个‘可能的预测’，但该交易者在已有两位鲸鱼先行买入且价格抬升后仍选择高位买入并成为该市场最大的多头（持有 $2,207 价值的 Yes Token），且未进行任何对冲，表现出极强的信息确定性。


id: 1484895_0xfee52592f0183d4019506161a19a849c307c9f2d7232f5849b146d79aadc536c-1436
market_id: 1484895
market_question: US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?
condition_id: 0x81b06cb917c9a2aabc67a7765bc3c640e88a699bbf451b29915049c0766cde04
transaction_hash: 0xfee52592f0183d4019506161a19a849c307c9f2d7232f5849b146d79aadc536c-1436
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0x9cf6ee7b9c39ee9d8c764431cb05cb8f4787b457
insider_evidence: 无。交易时间点精准吻合 Fars News 关于伊朗拒绝停火的报道发布后的 4-8 小时窗口。
detected_at: 2026-04-03T20:30:37.041529
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:10.412577
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2460655,"pnl":-2542.439577551906,"volume":165149.998862,"user_name":"WheelerDealer","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":55,"total_volume":112980.95662599996,"avg_trade_size":2054.1992113818173,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?","Trump cabinet member out by March 31, 2026?","Odds of Khamenei out in Jan over 20% on Friday?","US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","Spurs vs. Warriors","US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?","Will Israel strike Gaza on January 15, 2026?","US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?","US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?"],"large_trades_count":10,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":6197.0818,"price":0.91,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","timestamp":1775142631},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6197.079998,"price":0.7613419326803179,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","timestamp":1775142647},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6041.419998,"price":0.6626832937981435,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","timestamp":1774922235},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":6041.413479999999,"price":0.991,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","timestamp":1774922151},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":5652.292,"price":0.62,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","timestamp":1775029963},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5652.2899959999995,"price":0.8299999999985316,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","timestamp":1775029983},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":5327.5811,"price":0.8217745896202696,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","timestamp":1770865357},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5327.5799990000005,"price":0.6882056799885289,"title":"Spurs vs. Warriors","timestamp":1770865503},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5186.42,"price":0.8,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","timestamp":1770770713},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":5176.83518,"price":0.9647870728952734,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?","timestamp":1770770653}]}

reasoning:
该交易发生在伊斯兰堡谈判破裂和 48 小时停火提议被拒的消息公开后。交易者并不具备内幕，但利用了 Polymarket 赔率对地缘政治噩耗反应的滞后性。其低排名和负 PnL 表明这更多是一次基于公开新闻的‘梭哈’行为。


id: 1571566_0xc01e1ae7ba7443f38cb7055645060d12b822878cabc2587e49cbab517477d046-2838
market_id: 1571566
market_question: US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?
condition_id: 0x4ccff8c606ad71080c7611d28f1593a528a8ca6c11c1fb63bfa24a7eb2ad30d7
transaction_hash: 0xc01e1ae7ba7443f38cb7055645060d12b822878cabc2587e49cbab517477d046-2838
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xaf2383b66194112d57ac196b00ab25f78c17aa95
insider_evidence: 无。交易方向与实时公开负面新闻相反，且交易者过往记录显示其经常在极高溢价下进行高风险博弈。
detected_at: 2026-04-03T21:51:39.389487
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2504347,"pnl":-41230.49919415021,"volume":2002728.684436,"user_name":"random13782","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":57629.53203499996,"avg_trade_size":576.2953203499997,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?","Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?","Will Powell say \"Volatile\" during March press conf","Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of Marc","Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of Marc","Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?","Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?","Iran leadership change by March 13?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?","Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of Marc"],"large_trades_count":2,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":12544.53766,"price":0.9858639936940101,"title":"Netanyahu out by March 31?","timestamp":1773954653},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10612.213039999999,"price":0.998,"title":"Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?","timestamp":1773262647}]}

reasoning:
交易者历史盈亏表现极差且排名垫底，过往表现证明其缺乏市场洞察力。在公开新闻显示谈判僵局时逆势买入长线 Yes Token，更符合散户由于亏损产生的非理性博弈行为，而非掌握内幕。此外，市场顶级聪明钱（PnL > $1M）均处于空头阵营，进一步削弱了该笔交易的信号价值。


id: 1708086_0xaccd45a32e3cfbfc388b1660c9e5dd044c1ba91bf43aae1880675d8ccb97e6ee-864
market_id: 1708086
market_question: Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
condition_id: 0x6897736d782ce70f47126dfcec6669073f563d6e757e60bc61c0367370d6f73e
transaction_hash: 0xaccd45a32e3cfbfc388b1660c9e5dd044c1ba91bf43aae1880675d8ccb97e6ee-864
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x485a2e9ad89d9109bb4d37b925ba60f6350421cb
reasoning: 该交易者历史表现不佳（亏损 >$7k），其交易方向与社交媒体（Twitter/OSINT）上广泛流传的美军调动新闻完全一致，无明显领先于市场的预判。交易规模对于真正的内部消息而言较小。
insider_evidence: 无。交易模式高度吻合对公开地缘政治新闻的散户追涨行为。
detected_at: 2026-04-03T22:11:18.983166
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:18.079207
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2490462,"pnl":-7142.382199108502,"volume":80879.84050300001,"user_name":"0x485a2E9AD89D9109BB4d37b925bA60f6350421cB-1768423550172","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":21,"total_volume":14054.773262,"avg_trade_size":669.2749172380952,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-21?","Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by Ju","Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January ","Will Levante UD win on 2026-01-17?","Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?","Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026","Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (","Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026","Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 ("],"large_trades_count":0,"recent_trades":[]}


id: 665374_0x91dd796a9ce2b48df595553d3cfa9c16c4fc8c78365927e0f20aa66fa71acc09-1121
market_id: 665374
market_question: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
condition_id: 0x5db999fad322cea2914535aae5517060c3f80ad6d8c0231cde2124a434d16846
transaction_hash: 0x91dd796a9ce2b48df595553d3cfa9c16c4fc8c78365927e0f20aa66fa71acc09-1121
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x2120ea0323fcf5446233056467fdb852b4b12647
insider_evidence: 交易者在 4月4日凌晨的买入与 4月3日夜间美军特种部队地面营救任务的新闻发酵时间高度吻合，且与历史信号 #765 和 #1106 形成方向性共振。
detected_at: 2026-04-03T22:38:03.886470
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":6472,"pnl":17498.94032657728,"volume":435780.50025800004,"user_name":"0x2120ea0323FCF5446233056467FDB852B4b12647-1770197992573","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":99,"total_volume":207842.78854600003,"avg_trade_size":2099.4221065252527,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?","Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?","Trump announces end of military operations against","US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","US forces enter Iran by March 14?","US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April","US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March","US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?","US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?"],"large_trades_count":7,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":10978.123099999999,"price":0.78415165,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","timestamp":1774272253},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":9206.7757,"price":0.5023388324416106,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","timestamp":1774269933},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6587.584999999999,"price":0.5399659836065573,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","timestamp":1772847425},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5876.930700000001,"price":0.81,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","timestamp":1774269973},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":5429.779200000001,"price":0.64,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","timestamp":1774155541},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5428.508400000001,"price":0.37437988965517244,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","timestamp":1772334553},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":5320.0985,"price":0.7600129856957347,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","timestamp":1772984499}]}

reasoning:
该交易者并非单纯的投机者，而是深耕‘美伊局势’市场的专项交易者。其交易时机精准捕捉到了美军特种部队进入德黑兰营救飞行员后的外交强硬期（伊朗拒绝停火）。虽然信息源于公开报道，但交易者通过平掉‘停火’头寸并反手买入‘入侵’，展现了对冲突性质从‘空袭自卫’转向‘地面控制’（符合市场定义的入侵）的高度敏感性。


id: 665374_0x24448ae44e0377c3d230d4f533c21878831e63548c72e3c0f2b992a85805328d-1375
market_id: 665374
market_question: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
condition_id: 0x5db999fad322cea2914535aae5517060c3f80ad6d8c0231cde2124a434d16846
transaction_hash: 0x24448ae44e0377c3d230d4f533c21878831e63548c72e3c0f2b992a85805328d-1375
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x333db5f448b300101312ca9a78739b0561bb02e8
insider_evidence: 在 F-15 被击落消息传出后数小时内，连续出现三笔高排名大额 Yes 买单，表明知情人士或资深情报分析者正在押注美军后续的地面解救行动将触发‘入侵’判定条件。
detected_at: 2026-04-03T22:49:34.134984
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":53868,"pnl":1445.1570680478762,"volume":10704.787876,"user_name":"danwolenski","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":2,"total_volume":16378.318598000002,"avg_trade_size":8189.159299000001,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US forces enter Iran by April 30?"],"large_trades_count":2,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":9313.1586,"price":0.87,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775256061},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":7065.159998,"price":0.6599999999850534,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775163117}]}

reasoning:
交易者表现出极高的对军事新闻的反应速度和执行力。他在短期市场获利后精准切换至该市场，买入时机紧贴 F-15 被击落及飞行员被俘的消息确认期。虽然信息源于公开报道，但其对地面进攻节点（复活节）的预判与高排名聪明钱的方向一致。


id: 1517836_0x1d90af962870ff13a3aeb09d837908a9fe9d927d2931c13da3a50fd64ebc7a92-2044
market_id: 1517836
market_question: Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?
condition_id: 0xc84dfa2ab4a808d1b96a2cf439f8b88a1c5c37762253280deb7663a195d9b859
transaction_hash: 0x1d90af962870ff13a3aeb09d837908a9fe9d927d2931c13da3a50fd64ebc7a92-2044
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0x8ccedcdd40c9623a524c2e734879fc397b865c11
insider_evidence: 无明确的内幕消息证据。该交易更像是基于公开军事挫折（战机被击落）和对特朗普言论一贯夸张风格的深度解读，而非获取了秘密停火谈判的失败信息。但其持仓规模和一致性表明其具有极高的数据分析能力和行业专长。
detected_at: 2026-04-03T23:11:23.596208
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:27.262065
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":3424,"pnl":35223.258577311826,"volume":394244.93962200003,"user_name":"frostnovae","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":75,"total_volume":298330.62236199976,"avg_trade_size":3977.7416314933303,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["North Korea x South Korea military clash by Decemb","Trump announces end of military operations against","Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?","Will Elon Musk be the next CEO of X?","Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?","Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?","Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?","Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military stri","Will anyone say \"Meta AI\" during the Q2 2025 Meta ","Xi Jinping out in 2025?"],"large_trades_count":18,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":29999.999997999996,"price":0.622044441403869,"title":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","timestamp":1775122379},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":23525.61084,"price":0.999,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1775186229},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":20198.7845,"price":0.5330121829640111,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?","timestamp":1775122539},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":19999.999997000003,"price":0.8389881421968733,"title":"Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?","timestamp":1775053385},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":12810.157019999999,"price":0.999,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1775004875},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10000.0,"price":0.7392256020438109,"title":"Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?","timestamp":1775122251},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10000.0,"price":0.2815909890883492,"title":"Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?","timestamp":1773633439},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9999.999999,"price":0.5094998404002958,"title":"Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?","timestamp":1773633419},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9999.999998000001,"price":0.8774606901493498,"title":"Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?","timestamp":1773633479},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9999.999998,"price":0.6667092630770715,"title":"Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?","timestamp":1775053361}]}

reasoning:
交易者表现出极强的领域专业性，其持仓结构（同时押注地面入侵和否定快速结束）构成了一个完整的'战争升级'逻辑链。他选择在特朗普发表乐观言论、市场赔率极高（Yes 73%）时逆向加仓 No，显示其对战场实际进展（如 4 月 3 日战机被击落）和盟友间分歧的判断优于普通市场参与者。


id: 1811265_0x980a4af8a1532c923cb78542f4e3ed634a8634f99ee8e31e8307bd6e747c3a77-1284
market_id: 1811265
market_question: Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
condition_id: 0x0fcfcfc35d71424c0693c717d2e3bc9b8992910835d124d80cd2f01498f1d3dc
transaction_hash: 0x980a4af8a1532c923cb78542f4e3ed634a8634f99ee8e31e8307bd6e747c3a77-1284
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x8e371295d2cd12a6a55ba8d997fe1db3b5f4ff97
reasoning: 交易发生在一系列重磅解职新闻和政坛内讧流言广泛传播之后，价格已反映了相关风险。交易者历史记录为显著亏损，排名垫底，且其入场价格并无优势，更符合‘受情绪驱动的小散鲸鱼’特征。
insider_evidence: 无。交易行为完全符合对公开媒体（如 Fox News、NY Post）关于五角大楼内讧报道的反应模式。
detected_at: 2026-04-03T23:43:59.969695
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2473195,"pnl":-3446.204800480534,"volume":125405.47862200001,"user_name":"Argentflight","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":65871.841044,"avg_trade_size":658.71841044,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?","Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?","Odds of Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by ","Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31?","Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?","Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January ","Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?","France, UK, or Germany military action against Ira","Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28","Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by Februar"],"large_trades_count":0,"recent_trades":[]}


id: 1608291_0xdb8bb781665d1753a73d5fd8c2ee6df326d2f149fb72e76eeed4263be964bb86-1735
market_id: 1608291
market_question: Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m?
condition_id: 0xc35f382694bc66e67f6e0f0a8b28c992756960fd8ef2cfc6568d04df528d6ef1
transaction_hash: 0xdb8bb781665d1753a73d5fd8c2ee6df326d2f149fb72e76eeed4263be964bb86-1735
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x4da76bbf120899fc10fa6e0aad4bffdd19a7355e
detected_at: 2026-04-04T00:04:25.055384
market_resolved_at: 2026-04-22T08:02:47.356458
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2618,"pnl":46888.09374260079,"volume":3637525.9168490004,"user_name":"degensruletheworld","profile_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/profile-image-5102381-cc078acb-59eb-4cd3-96ed-e362a4332d03.jpeg","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":306929.73887205275,"avg_trade_size":3069.2973887205276,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?","Trump announces end of military operations against","Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?","US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","France, UK, or Germany military action against Ira","Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale","Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?","US forces enter Iran by December 31?","US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?"],"large_trades_count":16,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":29760.0,"price":0.992,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1774541737},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":22736.59065,"price":0.999,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1774953559},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":19840.0,"price":0.992,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1774541665},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":16871.27349,"price":0.953,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774906049},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":14910.0,"price":0.994,"title":"Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774541685},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":14909.970179999998,"price":0.994,"title":"Netanyahu out by March 31?","timestamp":1774541675},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9950.0,"price":0.995,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","timestamp":1774805052},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":8899.9822,"price":0.89,"title":"Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?","timestamp":1774645387},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8700.0,"price":0.87,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774785270},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8600.0,"price":0.86,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?","timestamp":1774465007}]}

reasoning:
该笔交易发生在 UTC 时间周六早晨 08:03，此时北美周五票房的初步统计数据（Friday Actuals/Late Estimates）通常已经开始在业内和核心影迷圈流传。公开媒体（如 Variety, THR）在周五晚间的预测为 1.86 亿（环球官方保守预测）对 1.9-2.0 亿（影院方乐观预测）。交易者在价格从 0.35 涨至 0.43 时选择加仓 BUY Yes，显然是基于周五强劲的表现判断最终数据将落在 1.9-2.0 亿这一特定区间，而非环球官方保守预测的区间。考虑到该交易者（degensruletheworld）具有较高的历史盈亏（$46k PnL）且在同一市场多次精准买入，存在利用数据差（快于大众媒体的票房实况更新）进行套利的嫌疑。但由于该信息属于‘快速反应的半公开数据’而非绝对意义上的‘内幕数据’，且看空方存在排名更高的大户（#282 Melody626），得分定为 0.58。

insider_evidence:
1. 交易时机（周六早 08:03）与周五票房实况出炉时间高度吻合；2. 交易者在价格上涨后（0.35 -> 0.43）选择加仓，表现出对特定区间（190m-200m）的高度信心；3. 市场‘聪明钱’共识正在向 Yes 集中，此前排名 #711 的大户也在相近价位重仓买入。


id: 665374_0x8fd46912806196ea5525dc0d05e2e09c61ea3d7f6263949651049f17eed464f7-2947
market_id: 665374
market_question: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
condition_id: 0x5db999fad322cea2914535aae5517060c3f80ad6d8c0231cde2124a434d16846
transaction_hash: 0x8fd46912806196ea5525dc0d05e2e09c61ea3d7f6263949651049f17eed464f7-2947
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: No
trader_wallet: 0x39fb70130977938f4f6d5cfe5e9fced522e332c7
reasoning: 交易者历史盈亏为负且排名极低，属于散户画像。虽然其在局势最紧张时刻逆势看空，但这更像是对'入侵'严格定义的法律解读博弈，而非掌握秘密停火协议。社交媒体上关于停火的传闻已半公开化，不存在显著信息差。
insider_evidence: 无。交易规模与地缘政治内幕的量级不符，且交易者过往行为表现为短线博彩风格。
detected_at: 2026-04-04T00:33:15.944537
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2494891,"pnl":-9473.719346470782,"volume":3328830.520226999,"user_name":"0x39fb70130977938f4f6D5cFE5e9fCED522e332c7-1773589836601","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":41364.94882667038,"avg_trade_size":413.64948826670377,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET","Solana Up or Down - April 1, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET","Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET","Solana Up or Down - April 1, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET","Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March?","Solana Up or Down - April 2, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET","Solana Up or Down - April 1, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET","Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET","US forces enter Iran by March 31?","US forces enter Iran by April 30?"],"large_trades_count":0,"recent_trades":[]}


id: 1608290_0x5ebf911a939f7cc8d1f278b1e0e3439d3546c094f13bc0649ba2695f26508fb5-1517
market_id: 1608290
market_question: Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m?
condition_id: 0x0842399b1d5e90288b1bc17ce671e947dba095247347149f3c2749ef542556a6
transaction_hash: 0x5ebf911a939f7cc8d1f278b1e0e3439d3546c094f13bc0649ba2695f26508fb5-1517
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x955c9661bf6e010beff0ba896a49f715a8c8990f
insider_evidence: 交易时间与周五票房实报流出时间高度重合；买入价格处于主流预测区间。
detected_at: 2026-04-04T01:42:46.042592
market_resolved_at: 2026-04-22T08:02:46.566381
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2499956,"pnl":-63745.25949842779,"volume":7771281.858974,"user_name":"0x955c9661bf6e010beff0ba896a49f715a8c8990f","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":242985.55933999992,"avg_trade_size":2429.855593399999,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will \"How to Make a Killing\" Opening Weekend Box O","Will \"The Strangers - Chapter 3\" Opening Weekend B","Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be less than $","Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?","Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February","Will \"Project Hail Mary\" Opening Weekend Box Offic","Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel","Will \"Solo Mio\" Opening Weekend Box Office be betw","Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?","Will a candidate win outright in the Texas GOP Sen"],"large_trades_count":12,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":33185.33977,"price":0.977768905646635,"title":"Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?","timestamp":1771051913},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":22582.15256,"price":0.968,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?","timestamp":1772307555},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":19334.1366,"price":0.9894741351118562,"title":"Will \"Reminders of Him\" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 19m?","timestamp":1773582885},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":14254.792809999999,"price":0.9791583450163173,"title":"Will the government shutdown last 2 days or more?","timestamp":1771051917},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":12001.521690000001,"price":0.9795737182678762,"title":"Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?","timestamp":1771051919},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":11352.5118,"price":0.9799319637462236,"title":"Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more?","timestamp":1771052083},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10928.73619,"price":0.9799210583653959,"title":"Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?","timestamp":1771051917},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":10215.880260000002,"price":0.9799292727565726,"title":"Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more?","timestamp":1771051921},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":8021.29548,"price":0.995985099886635,"title":"Will a candidate win outright in the Texas GOP Senate Primary?","timestamp":1773029607},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6860.47335,"price":0.9532513005563491,"title":"Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026?","timestamp":1774330859}]}

reasoning:
交易时机正值周五票房数据初步汇总期，交易者可能获取了早期的非正式数据。然而，考虑到该交易者历史上巨额的亏损记录和对公开预测（Variety $186M）的盲从倾向，其更像是在执行基于主流新闻的趋势交易，而非掌握未公开的精确数据。且对手方存在更高排名的盈利专家，抵消了该巨鲸的信号强度。


id: 1373744_0xfec0258ee2f4ee68f4cb852de91ad088e720134dc781ee710670f87affea2aa1-1818
market_id: 1373744
market_question: MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?
condition_id: 0xc0336e4897d2d044c0bcc234f72248ef7db97dca69f0caf1666a67ca55034b65
transaction_hash: 0xfec0258ee2f4ee68f4cb852de91ad088e720134dc781ee710670f87affea2aa1-1818
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xeb6789ca6b1425ff908a69a2a5469c38532cd696
detected_at: 2026-04-04T04:13:11.436864
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:28.789104
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":4721,"pnl":24346.51432666207,"volume":849949.1072490001,"user_name":"ExitLiquidty","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":51601.798244655,"avg_trade_size":516.01798244655,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?","P2P FDV above $150M one day after launch?","P2P FDV above $15M one day after launch?","P2P FDV above $10M one day after launch?","Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026?","MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after laun","MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after laun","P2P FDV above $5M one day after launch?","LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2","Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31?"],"large_trades_count":0,"recent_trades":[]}

reasoning:
交易者 ExitLiquidty 是该特定市场的 Top 1 庄家，其行为表现出极强的领域专长。在公开信息仅显示‘取决于里程碑’的情况下，该交易者在 4 月初以 55% 的概率（近 2 倍赔率）大额买入估值达标，明显是提前锁定了 TGE 时间表优于市场预期的情报。由于盘前 FDV ($1.3B+) 远高于市场门槛 ($800M)，这笔交易实质上是在赌‘我知道它肯定会在 6 月前发币’。

insider_evidence:
1. 身份唯一性：该交易者是该项目关联市场的核心流动性提供者和最大押注者。2. 跨市场同步：同时看多发币时间和发币估值。3. 估值套利：利用市场对‘发币时间’的恐惧，在估值几近确定的情况下（基于盘前数据）赚取时间溢价。


id: 665374_0x24a95257fcb436d3f66f5b2768dbfe2db46ea31b1ab14a15004ccbe4d08c0227-895
market_id: 665374
market_question: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
condition_id: 0x5db999fad322cea2914535aae5517060c3f80ad6d8c0231cde2124a434d16846
transaction_hash: 0x24a95257fcb436d3f66f5b2768dbfe2db46ea31b1ab14a15004ccbe4d08c0227-895
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0xe24f4d2cd4c533dda10eea5392bb791f3ffebae5
insider_evidence: 无明确内幕证据。虽然有历史顶级聪明钱在此前买入Yes，但本笔交易者tigerbearlion更可能是受推特关于‘4月5日入侵哈尔格岛’传闻影响的散户鲸鱼。
detected_at: 2026-04-04T04:29:13.537464
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2506602,"pnl":-64931.26795153956,"volume":2497692.62923,"user_name":"tigerbearlion","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":103934.77248399997,"avg_trade_size":1039.3477248399997,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Will Italy win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?","Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?","Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?","Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. South Korea","Fabric FDV above $500M one day after launch?","Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Electio","Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of Marc","Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February","Final Stage: Italy vs. Venezuela","Will Japan win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?"],"large_trades_count":3,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":9473.386297,"price":0.6799785457019738,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1772984551},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":9334.393258,"price":0.6700024158979262,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1772985291},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":5158.89088,"price":0.74029458579075,"title":"Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?","timestamp":1774428407}]}

reasoning:
该交易者历史表现极差（亏损6.4万美元），更像是一个追逐热点新闻的亏损鲸鱼。虽然交易时机精准处于F-15E被击落与地面入侵传闻之间，但相关信息在社交媒体上已广泛流传，且该交易者并无‘内幕交易者’常见的高胜率特征。


id: 1367007_0x9d261a9c48d8a13c81f520280ca28ddd614f47a192bf8d6a822d4fe96d003b05
market_id: 1367007
market_question: U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?
market_slug: us-anti-cartel-ground-operation-in-mexico-by-june-30
condition_id: 0xe43f857dfb0198020e4c4c05e1704ae961719d0f472bdd66b2661a0a0a519c36
transaction_hash: 0x9d261a9c48d8a13c81f520280ca28ddd614f47a192bf8d6a822d4fe96d003b05
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x87d2d8f4f382ce6e3a31017ad7e778a3dc63efb2
reasoning: Failed to parse LLM response
detected_at: 2026-04-28T08:21:43.600939
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:29.642259
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2470787,"pnl":-543.5665182308055,"volume":788927.081033,"user_name":"Skdel","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":70163.30242421631,"avg_trade_size":701.6330242421631,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET","Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET","Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET","Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-19?","Toronto Blue Jays vs. Arizona Diamondbacks","Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET","Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals","New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers","Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET","San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels"],"large_trades_count":2,"recent_trades":[{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":14807.87588896738,"price":0.9623506772230375,"title":"Madrid Open, Qualification: Elvina Kalieva vs Suzan Lamens","timestamp":1776684822},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6624.879999000001,"price":0.780048769525386,"title":"U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?","timestamp":1776777390}]}


id: 2088995_0x2bee25716d584ad79d9072f2c42299239d8a89e7f3aaee7d6c0a6159aba1d6eb
market_id: 2088995
market_question: Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale?
market_slug: over-20m-committed-to-the-printr-public-sale
condition_id: 0xcacdc005e7d722cd3adc3ae690f368f26c50fae9b50c7427e48db7e61f84219e
transaction_hash: 0x2bee25716d584ad79d9072f2c42299239d8a89e7f3aaee7d6c0a6159aba1d6eb
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x4cc25002e1b5d09c1dab0d26dbe2333648829271
detected_at: 2026-04-28T14:05:14.969929
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:30.517215
resolved_outcome: No
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":2650076,"pnl":-207876.07094411887,"volume":2379132.4843459995,"user_name":"morganfreeman228","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":318249.90249464224,"avg_trade_size":3182.4990249464227,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["Trump announces end of military operations against","US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?","Over $50M committed to the Ranger public sale?","Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31","USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?","Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale","Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th ","US forces enter Iran by March 31?","Over $70M committed to the Ranger public sale?"],"large_trades_count":13,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":40205.14461,"price":0.999,"title":"Over $200K committed to the Foresee public sale?","timestamp":1770627841},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":32616.544599999997,"price":0.97094548912021,"title":"Kodiak FDV above $50M one day after launch?","timestamp":1766616859},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":32455.01856,"price":0.996,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?","timestamp":1775611267},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":31349.719998000004,"price":0.9620799235308356,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?","timestamp":1775602647},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":30869.989955,"price":0.98,"title":"Kodiak FDV above $50M one day after launch?","timestamp":1766616965},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":11999.999973,"price":0.9718941275876778,"title":"Kodiak FDV above $50M one day after launch?","timestamp":1766616601},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":8457.398379999999,"price":0.8884549763531046,"title":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?","timestamp":1775602465},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6587.2864,"price":0.9297537043153262,"title":"Kodiak FDV above $50M one day after launch?","timestamp":1766616217},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":6233.7396,"price":0.8905342285714286,"title":"Kodiak FDV above $50M one day after launch?","timestamp":1766616187},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":5664.0,"price":0.96,"title":"Kodiak FDV above $50M one day after launch?","timestamp":1766616539}]}

reasoning:
The trader (morganfreeman228) is deeply negative PnL (-$207K) with a rank of ~2.65M, indicating a poor-performing speculative bettor despite high cumulative volume. The market is a real-time public sale commitment tracker (sale.printr.money) where commitment data is publicly visible to anyone — no insider information advantage is possible. The trade was placed 10 hours into the live sale window at a price (0.7962) nearly matching the market consensus (78.5% Yes), suggesting no meaningful mispricing was exploited. Public CT sentiment was already strongly bullish with multiple KOLs citing 10-20x oversubscription expectations, making this trade fully explainable by public information. The correlated $30M position adds directional conviction but is similarly small and consistent with a momentum-chasing pattern. Notably, the highest-quality traders in the market (tostitos #1,455, absol #4,147) are on the OPPOSING No side, which further undermines the whale's signal quality.

insider_evidence:
None identified. Sale commitment data is publicly viewable in real-time on the Sonar dashboard. CT community was publicly pricing 10-20x oversubscription before the trade. The trader has active history in similar token launch markets but poor historical performance (-$207K PnL) negates any implied domain expertise advantage.


id: 2109450_0xaf1b0294ff43cbf208e96a10384a2d1afb087c9807a63cb5b0556ac03249163d
market_id: 2109450
market_question: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
market_slug: us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-june-30-2026
condition_id: 0x6fa13f31cceaf10ed3190df6e2aca0a93ab0d6fb46fd279003f17d4cdccee164
transaction_hash: 0xaf1b0294ff43cbf208e96a10384a2d1afb087c9807a63cb5b0556ac03249163d
trade_side: BUY
trade_outcome: Yes
trader_wallet: 0x5f176a980de5b25f89f17473e5e8adef565c519e
detected_at: 2026-05-04T15:58:36.775934
market_resolved_at: 2026-07-12T00:24:31.365112
resolved_outcome: Yes
trader_ranking_json:
{"rank":1733,"pnl":84695.32519975695,"volume":3988933.468691,"user_name":"cezarn132","profile_image":"","verified":false,"time_period":"ALL"}

trader_history_json:
{"total_trades":100,"total_volume":1001831.6156149994,"avg_trade_size":10018.316156149995,"win_rate":null,"recent_markets":["US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?","Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-21?","Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-12-11?","Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas b","US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?","Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?","Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?","Will Kuopion PS win on 2026-02-19?","Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-01-28?","Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30?"],"large_trades_count":66,"recent_trades":[{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":94399.81605,"price":0.9769517189312706,"title":"Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?","timestamp":1773519513},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":49668.619999,"price":0.557399829964299,"title":"Will Netherlands win on 2025-11-14?","timestamp":1763148982},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":41685.40965,"price":0.9829109262969062,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?","timestamp":1776191796},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":25875.489998,"price":0.7599999999729783,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1774172665},{"side":"SELL","usdc_size":25853.865,"price":0.8110270961759437,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","timestamp":1774172631},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":24999.999998,"price":0.739999999979872,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1773519735},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":24999.999994,"price":0.85999999999656,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?","timestamp":1773519709},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":22980.829992,"price":0.8949277255965815,"title":"Will Liverpool reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?","timestamp":1776191892},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":22422.079997999997,"price":0.8222687902966309,"title":"Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?","timestamp":1773519761},{"side":"BUY","usdc_size":20825.209998,"price":0.7715048338163113,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","timestamp":1774267039}]}

reasoning:
Trader cezarn132 (Rank #1733, PnL $84K) is a confirmed geopolitics specialist with deep Iran-focused trading history. However, several factors suppress the information asymmetry score: (1) The $9,600 trade is exactly in-line with this trader's average trade size ($10K), making it routine rather than an exceptional conviction bet. (2) The trader currently holds a heavily losing position in the nearer 'May 15' meeting market (down $6,508), and this June 30 buy appears to be a thesis roll-forward/loss recovery strategy rather than a fresh insider signal. (3) All supporting information (Islamabad talks, Witkoff statements, Iranian proposals) is extensively public and already priced into the ~69.5% market odds. (4) The market was previously at 80%+ and has been declining — this is a contrarian hold, not a momentum play. (5) The smart money picture is mixed — the largest Yes holder is a chronic losing trader. (6) This is a large geopolitical market with many participants, where public analysis rather than non-public information drives most trades. The trader demonstrates domain expertise and pattern consistency, but no evidence of non-public information access.

insider_evidence:
No insider evidence found. All information supporting the bullish Iran diplomacy view (Islamabad round 1 talks, Witkoff statements, Iranian FM proposals, Oman mediation) is widely reported in mainstream media. The trade is most consistent with a thesis-continuation/loss-recovery strategy following a losing May 15 position, rather than a fresh signal based on non-public information.


