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mode 100644 pyproject.toml create mode 100644 reports/20260505/20260505_000000_BUY_9599USD_US_x_Iran_diplomatic_meeting_by_June_30_2026.md create mode 100644 scripts/telegram_auth.py create mode 100644 setup.sh create mode 100644 src/__init__.py create mode 100644 src/config/__init__.py create mode 100644 src/config/settings.py create mode 100644 src/dashboard.py create mode 100644 src/db/__init__.py create mode 100644 src/db/database.py create mode 100644 src/main.py create mode 100644 src/models/__init__.py create mode 100644 src/models/anomaly_signal.py create mode 100644 src/models/decision.py create mode 100644 src/models/leading_signal.py create mode 100644 src/models/market.py create mode 100644 src/models/trade.py create mode 100644 src/prompts/__init__.py create mode 100644 src/prompts/volatility_analyzer.py create mode 100644 src/prompts/whale_analyzer.py create mode 100644 src/services/__init__.py create mode 100644 src/services/anomaly_detector.py create mode 100644 src/services/anomaly_history.py create mode 100644 src/services/coingecko.py create mode 100644 src/services/congress.py create mode 100644 src/services/daily_briefing.py create mode 100644 src/services/ddg_search.py create mode 100644 src/services/defillama.py create mode 100644 src/services/etherscan.py create mode 100644 src/services/fred.py create mode 100644 src/services/llm_analyzer.py create mode 100644 src/services/market_fetcher.py create mode 100644 src/services/polygon.py create mode 100644 src/services/price_monitor.py create mode 100644 src/services/resolution_tracker.py create mode 100644 src/services/rtds_client.py create mode 100644 src/services/serper_search.py create mode 100644 src/services/stats_engine.py create mode 100644 src/services/tavily_search.py create mode 100644 src/services/telegram_search.py create mode 100644 src/services/tools.py create mode 100644 src/services/trade_monitor.py create mode 100644 src/services/trader_profiler.py create mode 100644 src/services/twitter_search.py create mode 100644 src/services/volatility_analyzer.py create mode 100644 src/services/web_search.py create mode 100644 src/utils/__init__.py create mode 100644 src/utils/http.py create mode 100644 src/utils/logger.py diff --git a/.dockerignore b/.dockerignore new file mode 100644 index 0000000..98da910 --- /dev/null +++ b/.dockerignore @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +venv/ +.env +.git/ +__pycache__/ +*.pyc +data/ +reports/ +daily_briefings/ +leading_signals/ +price_volatility/ +anomaly_signals/ +*.db +*.json.bak diff --git a/.env.example b/.env.example new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1543aa6 --- /dev/null +++ b/.env.example @@ -0,0 +1,68 @@ +# ============================================================ +# Polymarket Whale Watcher - 配置文件 +# ============================================================ +# 复制到 .env 并填入你的 API 密钥： +# cp .env.example .env +# +# 只需 LLM_API_KEY 是必填项，其余均为可选。 +# ============================================================ + +# --- 必填项 --- +# 任意 OpenAI 兼容的 API +LLM_API_KEY=sk-your-key-here +LLM_BASE_URL=https://api.openai.com/v1/ +LLM_MODEL=gpt-4o + +# --- 交易数据源 --- +# "official" = Polymarket 公共 API（无需认证，默认） +# "internal" = 私有 API（需配置 INTERNAL_API_URL + INTERNAL_API_KEY） +TRADE_API_MODE=official + +# 内部 API（仅当 TRADE_API_MODE=internal 时需要） +# INTERNAL_API_URL=http://103.197.25.170:18088 +# INTERNAL_API_KEY=your_internal_api_key_here + +# --- LLM 设置 --- +LLM_BASE_URL=https://generativelanguage.googleapis.com/v1beta/openai/ +LLM_MODEL=gemini-3-flash-preview +LLM_TEMPERATURE=0 + +# --- HTTP 代理（用于无法直连 Polymarket 的网络环境，如中国大陆） --- +HTTP_PROXY=http://127.0.0.1:7890 + +# --- 可选：搜索与数据 API（增强 LLM 分析能力） --- +# TAVILY_API_KEY= # 网页搜索 (https://tavily.com) +# TWITTER_API_KEY= # Twitter 社交情绪 +# SERPER_API_KEY= # 网页搜索备用 (https://serper.dev) +# POLYGON_API_KEY= # 股票、外汇数据 (https://polygon.io) +# FRED_API_KEY= # 美国经济指标 (https://fred.stlouisfed.org) +# ETHERSCAN_API_KEY= # 链上数据 (https://etherscan.io) +# CONGRESS_API_KEY= # 美国立法动态 (https://api.congress.gov) + +# --- 可选：Telegram 频道监控 --- +# TELEGRAM_API_ID= +# TELEGRAM_API_HASH= +# TELEGRAM_SESSION_STRING= +# TELEGRAM_CHANNELS= + +# --- 鲸鱼检测参数调优 --- +MIN_TRADE_SIZE_USD=1000 +MIN_PRICE=0 +MAX_PRICE=0.7 +FETCH_INTERVAL_SECONDS=15 +TRENDING_MARKETS_LIMIT=50 + +# --- 邮件提醒（可选） --- +EMAIL_ENABLED=false +# EMAIL_SMTP_SERVER=smtp.qq.com +# EMAIL_SMTP_PORT=465 +# EMAIL_SENDER= +# EMAIL_PASSWORD= +# EMAIL_RECIPIENT= + +# --- 交易执行（默认关闭，谨慎使用） --- +ENABLE_TRADE_EXECUTION=false +# POLYGON_WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY= + +# --- 日志 --- +LOG_LEVEL=INFO \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/.gitignore b/.gitignore new file mode 100644 index 0000000..44a80a5 --- /dev/null +++ b/.gitignore @@ -0,0 +1,47 @@ +# Environment variables +.env + +# Python +__pycache__/ +*.py[cod] +*$py.class +*.so +.Python +build/ +develop-eggs/ +dist/ +downloads/ +eggs/ +.eggs/ +lib/ +lib64/ +parts/ +sdist/ +var/ +wheels/ +*.egg-info/ +.installed.cfg +*.egg + +# Virtual environments +venv/ +ENV/ +env/ +.venv/ + +# IDE +.idea/ +.vscode/ +*.swp +*.swo + +# OS +.DS_Store +Thumbs.db + +# Reports (optional - uncomment if you don't want to track reports) +# reports/ + +# Data files +data/*.json +data/*.csv diff --git a/Dockerfile b/Dockerfile new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1d9eb42 --- /dev/null +++ b/Dockerfile @@ -0,0 +1,21 @@ +FROM python:3.12-slim + +WORKDIR /app + +# Install system dependencies +RUN apt-get update && apt-get install -y --no-install-recommends \ + gcc \ + && rm -rf /var/lib/apt/lists/* + +# Install Python dependencies +COPY pyproject.toml . +RUN pip install --no-cache-dir . + +# Copy application code +COPY src/ src/ + +# Create data directories +RUN mkdir -p data reports daily_briefings + +# Default command +CMD ["python", "-m", "src.main", "run"] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/Makefile b/Makefile new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7eb3e43 --- /dev/null +++ b/Makefile @@ -0,0 +1,43 @@ +.PHONY: setup run dashboard briefing markets test lint clean docker-build docker-run help + +PYTHON = python3 +VENV = venv +PIP = $(VENV)/bin/pip +PY = $(VENV)/bin/python + +help: ## Show this help + @grep -E '^[a-zA-Z_-]+:.*?## .*$$' $(MAKEFILE_LIST) | sort | awk 'BEGIN {FS = ":.*?## "}; {printf "\033[36m%-20s\033[0m %s\n", $$1, $$2}' + +setup: ## One-click setup (venv + dependencies + .env) + @chmod +x setup.sh && ./setup.sh + +run: ## Start the whale watcher + $(PY) -m src.main run + +run-debug: ## Start with debug logging + $(PY) -m src.main run --debug + +dashboard: ## Start the web dashboard + $(PY) -m src.main dashboard + +briefing: ## Generate today's briefing + $(PY) -m src.main briefing --today + +markets: ## Show trending markets + $(PY) -m src.main check-markets --limit 20 + +test: ## Run tests + $(PY) -m pytest tests/ -v + +lint: ## Run linter + $(VENV)/bin/ruff check src/ + +clean: ## Remove generated files (keep data) + find . -type d -name __pycache__ -exec rm -rf {} + 2>/dev/null || true + find . -type f -name '*.pyc' -delete 2>/dev/null || true + +docker-build: ## Build Docker image + docker build -t polymarket-whale-watcher . + +docker-run: ## Run in Docker + docker run --env-file .env -v $(PWD)/data:/app/data -v $(PWD)/reports:/app/reports polymarket-whale-watcher diff --git a/README.md b/README.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b40c398 --- /dev/null +++ b/README.md @@ -0,0 +1,525 @@ +
+ +# 🐋 Polymarket Whale Watcher + +**AI-Powered Whale Trade Intelligence for Polymarket Prediction Markets** + +[![Python 3.10+](https://img.shields.io/badge/python-3.10+-3776AB.svg?style=for-the-badge&logo=python&logoColor=white)](https://www.python.org/downloads/) +[![License: MIT](https://img.shields.io/badge/License-MIT-22c55e.svg?style=for-the-badge)](LICENSE) +[![Polymarket](https://img.shields.io/badge/Polymarket-API-8B5CF6.svg?style=for-the-badge)](https://docs.polymarket.com/) +[![LLM](https://img.shields.io/badge/LLM-OpenAI_Compatible-412991.svg?style=for-the-badge&logo=openai&logoColor=white)](https://platform.openai.com/) + +
+ +**Real-time monitoring** of 700+ markets  ·  **14 autonomous research tools**  ·  **Multi-step deep analysis**  ·  **Signal accuracy tracking** + +
+ +[Quick Start](#-quick-start)   |   [How It Works](#-how-it-works)   |   [Sample Report](#-sample-report)   |   [Configuration](#%EF%B8%8F-configuration)   |   [Dashboard](#-dashboard) + +--- + +pipeline + +
+ +
+ +## What It Does + +Whale Watcher continuously monitors **700+ active Polymarket markets** across three volume tiers, detects large trades with anomalous patterns, and deploys an LLM agent with **14 autonomous research tools** to conduct multi-step deep investigations. Each whale trade undergoes a structured 7-step analysis pipeline — from trader profiling and cross-market position mapping to information gap assessment — producing an **Information Asymmetry Score** that quantifies the likelihood of non-public information advantage. + +
+ +## Live Demo + +
+Terminal Output — Real-time whale detection and analysis + +
+ +``` +$ python -m src.main run + +============================================================ +WHALE WATCHER STARTED +============================================================ +Monitoring: 765 markets +Interval: 10 seconds +Min Trade Size: $10,000 USD +Price Range: 0.1 - 0.9 +============================================================ + +Tiered monitoring: Tier1=8 (>500K), Tier2=198 (>10K), Tier3=559 (>1K) + +[23:41:12] WHALE TRADE DETECTED! + Amount: $9,600.00 USDC + Side: BUY Yes + Price: 0.7142 + Market: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? + + Generating analysis report... + Round 1: LLM requested 3 tool call(s) + → search_web("US Iran diplomatic meeting June 2026") + → search_twitter("US Iran meeting diplomacy") + → get_wallet_transfers("0xceza...rn132") + Round 2: LLM requested 2 tool call(s) + → search_web("Islamabad Iran talks Witkoff April 2026") + → search_twitter("POLYMARKET Iran meeting odds fading") + Round 3: LLM requested 1 tool call(s) + → search_web("Iran FM Araghchi 3 phase deal proposal") + + Analysis complete after 3 round(s) + Information Asymmetry Score: 0.32 (LOW) + Trader Credibility: MEDIUM (#1733, PnL: $84K) + Verdict: Thesis continuation / loss recovery — HOLD/PASS + Report saved: reports/20260504/... +``` + +
+ +
+ +
+Sample Report — 7-Step Deep Analysis (click to expand) + +
+ +Each whale trade generates a comprehensive markdown report with structured multi-step analysis: + +> **Full example**: [docs/examples/sample_report.md](docs/examples/sample_report.md) + +#### Report Structure + +``` +====================================================================== +# Whale Trade Analysis Report +====================================================================== + +┌─ Trade Summary ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ +│ Market, trade size, direction, price, odds, time, trader rank │ +└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘ + +┌─ Step 2: Trade Signal Analysis ─────────────────────────────────────┐ +│ Trader profile: rank, PnL, avg size, large trade ratio │ +│ Domain expertise detection, trade timing analysis │ +└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘ + +┌─ Step 3: Event-Related Position Analysis ───────────────────────────┐ +│ Cross-market positions, roll-forward detection │ +│ Loss recovery patterns, hedge identification │ +└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘ + +┌─ Step 4: Market Long/Short Analysis ────────────────────────────────┐ +│ Top 5 bulls & bears with rankings and PnL │ +│ Smart money consensus assessment │ +└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘ + +┌─ Step 5: Information Gap Analysis ──────────────────────────────────┐ +│ Public information audit (web, Twitter, Telegram) │ +│ Market pricing efficiency check │ +│ Non-public information evidence search │ +└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘ + +┌─ Step 6: Historical Pattern ────────────────────────────────────────┐ +│ Trader's past bets on related events │ +│ Strategy pattern recognition (laddering, hedging, etc.) │ +└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘ + +┌─ Step 7: Information Asymmetry Assessment ──────────────────────────┐ +│ Score (0–1), trader credibility, evidence, reasoning │ +│ Multi-factor summary table with signal strength │ +│ Recommended action: BUY / HOLD / PASS │ +└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘ +``` + +#### Example Summary Table + +| Factor | Assessment | Signal | +|--------|-----------|--------| +| Trader Rank/PnL | Rank #1733, $84K PnL | Moderate | +| Trade Size vs. Normal | ~$9.6K vs. avg $10K | Routine — neutral | +| Related Position | Heavy loser on May 15 market (-$6.5K) | Suppresses signal | +| Domain Expertise | Iran geopolitics specialist | Supportive | +| Public Info Coverage | Extensive public news | Reduces asymmetry | +| Smart Money Bulls | Rank #278 also long | Modest support | +| **Overall** | **Thesis continuation, not insider signal** | **Low-Medium** | + +
+ +
+ +
+Daily Briefing — Automated intelligence summary + +
+ +Daily briefings are generated at **10:00 AM local time** and emailed automatically. + +> **Full example**: [docs/examples/sample_briefing.md](docs/examples/sample_briefing.md) + +**Includes:** +- High-confidence signals (IAS >= 60%) with full analysis summaries +- Fallback: top 5 signals by score if none reach the threshold +- Abnormal price volatility alerts +- Historical signal performance — win rate and ROI by confidence tier + +
+ +
+ +--- + +## Quick Start + +### One-Click Setup + +```bash +git clone https://github.com/chaoleiyv/polymarket-whale-watcher.git +cd polymarket-whale-watcher +chmod +x setup.sh && ./setup.sh +``` + +The setup script will: +1. Check Python 3.10+ is installed +2. Create a virtual environment +3. Install all dependencies +4. Create `.env` from template + +Then add your API key and start: + +```bash +# Add your LLM API key (the only required key) +echo "LLM_API_KEY=your_key_here" >> .env + +# Activate the environment and run +source .venv/bin/activate +python -m src.main run +``` + +> **Get an API key**: [OpenAI](https://platform.openai.com/api-keys) · [Google AI Studio](https://aistudio.google.com/apikey) (free tier) · [DeepSeek](https://platform.deepseek.com/) + +### Docker + +```bash +docker build -t whale-watcher . +docker run --env-file .env -v ./data:/app/data -v ./reports:/app/reports whale-watcher +``` + +--- + +## How It Works + +```mermaid +flowchart LR + A[Polymarket API] --> B[Market Fetcher] + B --> C[700+ Tiered Markets] + C --> D[Trade Monitor] + D --> E{Whale\nTrade?} + E -->|No| D + E -->|Yes| F[Anomaly Detector] + F --> G{Score >= 0.65?} + G -->|No| D + G -->|Yes| H[LLM Analyzer] + H --> I[14 Research Tools] + I --> J[Signal + Report] + J --> K[Resolution Tracker] + K --> L[Dashboard + Email] +``` + +### Pipeline + +| Stage | What Happens | +|-------|-------------| +| **1. Market Selection** | Fetches all active markets from Polymarket Gamma API, classifies into 3 tiers by 24h volume, adds token launch markets. Refreshes every 15 minutes. | +| **2. Trade Monitoring** | Parallel async tasks per market (700+), polls official Polymarket data-api for new taker BUY trades, deduplicates by transaction hash. Connection pool: 50 connections, 120s timeout. | +| **3. Whale Pre-filter** | Price range 0.10–0.90, $5K hard floor, dynamic threshold scaled by volume ($5K–$100K), conviction check (must pay above mid), resolution window 6h–90d. | +| **4. Anomaly Scoring** | 5-factor model (max 1.0): base confidence (0.50) + premium ratio (0.20) + signal cleanliness (0.10) + depth ratio (0.10) + cluster tier (0.10). Threshold: >= 0.65. | +| **5. LLM Investigation** | Builds rich context (trade + trader profile + event positions + market top holders + historical signals). LLM autonomously selects tools for up to 3 rounds. Produces structured 7-step analysis with information asymmetry score (0–1). | +| **6. Signal Tracking** | Resolution tracker checks every 30 min, validates signal correctness, computes theoretical ROI. Daily briefings at 10:00 AM, emailed to recipients. | + +--- + +## Features + +| Feature | Description | +|---------|-------------| +| **Tiered Market Monitoring** | 700+ markets across 3 tiers: Tier1 (>$500K, 15s), Tier2 (>$10K, 60s), Tier3 (>$1K, 300s) | +| **5-Factor Anomaly Detection** | Premium ratio, signal cleanliness, depth ratio, cluster signals, base confidence | +| **7-Step Deep Analysis** | Trade signal → Event positions → Long/short mapping → Info gap → Historical pattern → Asymmetry score | +| **14 Autonomous Research Tools** | Web, Twitter, Telegram, crypto, DeFi, stocks, on-chain, legislation | +| **Cross-Market Position Analysis** | Detects roll-forwards, hedges, and loss recovery patterns across related markets | +| **Signal Accuracy Tracking** | Auto resolution checking every 30 min, win rate stats by confidence tier | +| **Daily Briefings** | 10:00 AM automated summary with high-confidence signals, emailed to recipients | +| **Real-time Email Alerts** | Instant notifications for high information-asymmetry signals (>= 60%) | +| **Web Dashboard** | FastAPI-based signal performance dashboard with ROI breakdowns | + +### 14 LLM Research Tools + +The LLM agent autonomously selects and chains these tools during its multi-round investigation: + +| Category | Tools | Use Case | +|----------|-------|----------| +| **Social & Sentiment** | `search_twitter` · `search_telegram` · `search_web` | Public sentiment, insider chatter, news coverage | +| **Crypto & DeFi** | `get_crypto_price` · `get_crypto_market_overview` · `get_protocol_tvl` · `get_token_unlocks` · `get_protocol_revenue` | Token prices, TVL, unlocks, protocol health | +| **Financial Data** | `get_stock_price` · `get_stock_news` · `get_economic_data` | Equities, ETFs, macro indicators | +| **On-Chain** | `get_wallet_transfers` · `get_contract_info` | Wallet activity, contract deployments | +| **Legislation** | `get_bill_status` · `get_recent_legislation` | US bills, regulatory actions | + +--- + +## Sample Report + +Every whale trade produces a structured multi-step report. Here's a condensed view: + +``` +====================================================================== +# Whale Trade Analysis Report +====================================================================== + +Trade Summary + Market: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? + Size: $9,600 USDC | Direction: BUY Yes (71.4%) | Trader: #1733 + +Step 2: Trade Signal Analysis + → Mid-tier trader, $84K PnL, Iran geopolitics specialist + → Trade size ($9.6K) matches avg ($10K) — routine, not exceptional + +Step 3: Event-Related Position Analysis ← KEY FINDING + → Losing -$6,508 on earlier "May 15 meeting" market (15.5% odds) + → This trade is a thesis roll-forward, not a fresh insider bet + +Step 4: Market Long/Short Analysis + → Biggest Yes holder is a chronic loser (PnL: -$5.5M) — red flag + → One elite trader (Rank #278) also long — modest support + +Step 5: Information Gap Analysis + → All supporting info widely reported in mainstream media + → Market at 69.5% — already fairly priced + +Step 6: Historical Pattern + → "Timeline ladder" strategy across multiple Iran-related deadlines + +Step 7: Information Asymmetry Assessment + → Score: 0.32 (LOW) | Credibility: MEDIUM + → Verdict: Thesis continuation / loss recovery — HOLD/PASS + +====================================================================== +``` + +> **Full report**: [docs/examples/sample_report.md](docs/examples/sample_report.md) + +--- + +## Configuration + +Copy `.env.example` to `.env` and configure: + +### Required + +| Variable | Description | Get It | +|----------|-------------|--------| +| `LLM_API_KEY` | LLM API key for analysis (OpenAI-compatible) | [OpenAI](https://platform.openai.com/api-keys) / [Google AI Studio](https://aistudio.google.com/apikey) | + +### Optional (enhances analysis quality) + +
+Data Source API Keys + +| Variable | Description | Get It | +|----------|-------------|--------| +| `TAVILY_API_KEY` | Web search (primary) | [tavily.com](https://tavily.com) | +| `SERPER_API_KEY` | Web search (fallback) | [serper.dev](https://serper.dev) | +| `TWITTER_API_KEY` | Twitter sentiment search | [twitterapi.io](https://twitterapi.io) | +| `POLYGON_API_KEY` | Stock/ETF/forex data | [polygon.io](https://polygon.io) | +| `FRED_API_KEY` | Economic indicators | [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/docs/api/api_key.html) | +| `ETHERSCAN_API_KEY` | On-chain wallet analysis (Polygon V2) | [etherscan.io](https://etherscan.io/apis) | +| `CONGRESS_API_KEY` | US legislation data | [congress.gov](https://api.congress.gov/) | +| `TELEGRAM_API_ID` / `TELEGRAM_API_HASH` | Telegram channel monitoring | [my.telegram.org](https://my.telegram.org) | + +
+ +
+LLM Settings + +| Variable | Default | Description | +|----------|---------|-------------| +| `LLM_MODEL` | `gemini-3-flash-preview` | Model name (any OpenAI-compatible) | +| `LLM_BASE_URL` | Google AI endpoint | OpenAI-compatible API base URL | +| `LLM_TEMPERATURE` | `0` | LLM temperature | + +
+ +
+Whale Detection Tuning + +| Variable | Default | Description | +|----------|---------|-------------| +| `MIN_TRADE_SIZE_USD` | `10000` | Minimum trade size to consider | +| `MIN_PRICE` / `MAX_PRICE` | `0.10` / `0.90` | Price range filter | +| `FETCH_INTERVAL_SECONDS` | `10` | Default polling interval | + +
+ +
+Tiered Market Monitoring + +| Variable | Default | Description | +|----------|---------|-------------| +| `FULL_MARKET_SCAN` | `true` | Enable tiered monitoring (all active markets) | +| `TIER1_VOLUME_MIN` | `500000` | Tier 1 volume threshold | +| `TIER2_VOLUME_MIN` | `10000` | Tier 2 volume threshold | +| `TIER3_VOLUME_MIN` | `1000` | Tier 3 volume threshold | +| `TIER1_POLL_INTERVAL` | `15` | Tier 1 polling interval (seconds) | +| `TIER2_POLL_INTERVAL` | `60` | Tier 2 polling interval (seconds) | +| `TIER3_POLL_INTERVAL` | `300` | Tier 3 polling interval (seconds) | + +
+ +
+Email Alerts + +| Variable | Default | Description | +|----------|---------|-------------| +| `EMAIL_ENABLED` | `false` | Enable email notifications | +| `EMAIL_SENDER` | — | Sender email address | +| `EMAIL_PASSWORD` | — | Sender email password (app password) | +| `EMAIL_RECIPIENT` | — | Comma-separated recipient emails | + +
+ +--- + +## Commands + +```bash +# Core +python -m src.main run [--debug] # Start monitoring +python -m src.main check-markets --limit 20 # View trending markets + +# Analysis +python -m src.main test-analyze # Test LLM on a specific market + +# Reports +python -m src.main briefing --today # Generate today's briefing +python -m src.main briefing --date 2026-04-17 # Briefing for a specific date + +# Dashboard +python -m src.main dashboard --port 8000 # Start web dashboard + +# Maintenance +python -m src.main migrate # Migrate legacy JSON to SQLite +``` + +--- + +## Dashboard + +```bash +python -m src.main dashboard +# Open http://localhost:8000 +``` + +The dashboard shows: +- Overall signal statistics (total signals, win rate, avg ROI) +- Performance breakdown by confidence tier +- Top best/worst signals by theoretical ROI +- Paginated signal history + +--- + +## Architecture + +``` + ┌──────────────────────────────┐ + │ Polymarket Gamma API │ + │ (all active markets) │ + └──────────────┬───────────────┘ + │ + ┌──────────────▼───────────────┐ + │ Market Fetcher │ + │ Tier1: >$500K (15s poll) │ + │ Tier2: >$10K (60s poll) │ + │ Tier3: >$1K (300s poll) │ + └──────────────┬───────────────┘ + │ + ┌────────────────────▼────────────────────┐ + │ Trade Monitor (async, 700+) │ + │ Official Polymarket data-api │ + │ Per-market parallel tasks │ + │ Pool: 50 connections, 120s timeout │ + └────────────────────┬────────────────────┘ + │ + ┌────────────────────▼────────────────────┐ + │ Pre-filter + Scoring │ + │ $5K+ size, 0.10-0.90 price, conviction │ + │ 5-factor anomaly score >= 0.65 │ + └────────────────────┬────────────────────┘ + │ + ┌────────────────────▼────────────────────┐ + │ LLM Analyzer — 7-Step Pipeline │ + │ 14 tools · up to 3 rounds │ + ├──────────┬────────┬────────┬────────────┤ + │ Twitter │ Web │ DeFi │ On-Chain │ + │ Telegram │ Search │ Crypto │ Legislation│ + └──────────┴───┬────┴────────┴────────────┘ + │ + ┌──────────────▼─────────────────────────┐ + │ Signal Storage (SQLite) │ + │ → Resolution Tracker (every 30min) │ + │ → Daily Briefing (10:00 AM + email) │ + │ → Email Alerts (IAS >= 60%) │ + │ → Dashboard (FastAPI) │ + └────────────────────────────────────────┘ +``` + +--- + +## Project Structure + +``` +src/ +├── config/settings.py # Environment configuration (Pydantic) +├── models/ # Data models +│ ├── market.py # Market, TrendingMarket +│ ├── trade.py # TradeActivity, WhaleTrade, TraderRanking +│ ├── decision.py # TradeRecommendation, LLMDecision +│ └── anomaly_signal.py # AnomalySignal (stored signal) +├── services/ # Business logic +│ ├── market_fetcher.py # Polymarket Gamma API (tiered market selection) +│ ├── trade_monitor.py # Per-market parallel monitoring (official API) +│ ├── anomaly_detector.py # 5-factor anomaly scoring +│ ├── llm_analyzer.py # LLM with tool-use (14 tools, 3 rounds) +│ ├── tools.py # Tool registry +│ ├── resolution_tracker.py # Market resolution checking +│ ├── stats_engine.py # Performance statistics +│ ├── daily_briefing.py # Daily summary generation + email +│ ├── twitter_search.py # Twitter API search +│ ├── telegram_search.py # Telegram channel monitoring +│ ├── web_search.py # Tavily/Serper/DuckDuckGo search +│ ├── coingecko.py # Crypto prices and market data +│ ├── defillama.py # DeFi TVL, revenue, token unlocks +│ ├── fred.py # FRED macroeconomic data +│ ├── polygon.py # Stock/ETF prices and news +│ ├── etherscan.py # On-chain data (Polygon, Etherscan V2) +│ └── congress.py # US legislation data +├── prompts/ # LLM system prompts +│ ├── whale_analyzer.py # Whale trade analysis prompt +│ └── volatility_analyzer.py # Price volatility analysis prompt +├── db/database.py # SQLite signal storage +└── main.py # CLI entry point (Typer) +``` + +--- + +## Disclaimer + +This system is for **research and educational purposes only**. Prediction market trading involves significant risk. The information asymmetry scores and analyses are AI-generated estimates — not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and verify independently before making any trading decisions. + +--- + +
+ +**MIT License**  ·  Built with Polymarket API + LLM + +
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zz*|%TJCES5JO0pk=KF6BVEh7tScbpukLv-~1Fi>L54aw1J>Yu4^?>UE*8{ExTo3%; z@xX&Ut(mQu+!kdmg$U~)4ON)!v=S|XtZV$lSM+001L zfc^=1-PE{ZB%*RS6vG;S$OvKwJu2&Z(1^*P5{h7zI$k`}v0}Wf*Uam)71Jw{$iAy+ ziK$i;Bf=HY85OtH*P0ap;*C&)^7LTBPy&g7f@LC6kX38(U}RWNu*%K~H}`#n<4u!FCIk z8yI;I3Jv(RAQ+3l5apzCD=pn4mR5&mO*{eYpS>=y;3DtJsynW;sL5y2iKL4cP!Sz> z@d7ShphQpCf~aU8ymRpah&$FGa^d0y82YAt{`D#7(X$OFD z@d7Shz{Lx=cmWqL;Nk^rh!SB*{&VpH9G@Km@VZKt2dmm(z{&$b9Yn#HF<= 60%) +- Abnormal price volatility events: **2** + +--- + +## High-Confidence Information Asymmetry Signals + +### 1. Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026? + +| Metric | Value | +|--------|-------| +| Info Asymmetry | **72%** | +| Direction | BUY Yes Token (Bullish) | +| Entry Price | 0.4200 (Odds 2.4x) | +| Trade Size | **$92,336** USDC | +| Detected At | 2026-04-15 14:23:07 | + +**Analysis**: High-ranked trader (#47, PnL $284K) making concentrated bets. Unannounced smart contract deployed by MegaETH team 6 hours prior. KOL insider chatter on Twitter preceded the trade. + +**Insider Evidence**: New ERC-20 contract deployed by MegaETH deployer wallet, not yet publicly announced. + +### 2. US forces enter Iran by April 30 + +| Metric | Value | +|--------|-------| +| Info Asymmetry | **65%** | +| Direction | BUY Yes Token (Bullish) | +| Entry Price | 0.3100 (Odds 3.2x) | +| Trade Size | **$46,500** USDC | +| Detected At | 2026-04-15 09:21:53 | + +**Analysis**: Top-50 trader with $500K+ PnL placing aggressive bets. Multiple high-ranked traders converging on the same direction. Trade occurred hours before Pentagon press briefing. + +### 3. Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orban? + +| Metric | Value | +|--------|-------| +| Info Asymmetry | **61%** | +| Direction | BUY No Token (Bearish) | +| Entry Price | 0.2800 (Odds 3.6x) | +| Trade Size | **$65,699** USDC | +| Detected At | 2026-04-15 16:31:22 | + +**Analysis**: Verified trader with strong European politics track record betting against Orban. Telegram channels discussing potential coalition shift not yet covered by mainstream media. + +--- + +## Abnormal Price Volatility + +| Market | Direction | Change | Start Price | End Price | Detected At | +|--------|-----------|--------|-------------|-----------|-------------| +| EdgeX FDV above 500M one day... | Up | 35.2% | 22.00% | 57.20% | 2026-04-15 03:41 | +| Iran leadership change by Dec... | Up | 22.8% | 31.00% | 53.80% | 2026-04-15 11:15 | + +--- + +## Signal History + +| Metric | Value | +|--------|-------| +| Total Signals | 847 | +| Resolved | 312 | +| Correct | 198 | +| Win Rate | **63.5%** | +| Avg ROI | **+28.3%** | +| Theoretical Total PnL | **+42.71x** | + +### Performance by Confidence Tier + +| Confidence Range | Signals | Resolved | Win Rate | Avg ROI | +|-----------------|---------|----------|----------|---------| +| 0.8 - 1.0 | 23 | 15 | 80.0% | +52.1% | +| 0.6 - 0.8 | 89 | 47 | 68.1% | +35.7% | +| 0.4 - 0.6 | 284 | 132 | 59.1% | +18.4% | + +--- + +*This briefing was automatically generated by Polymarket Whale Watcher* diff --git a/docs/examples/sample_report.md b/docs/examples/sample_report.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..10335f3 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/examples/sample_report.md @@ -0,0 +1,139 @@ + +====================================================================== +# Whale Trade Analysis Report +====================================================================== + +**Generated at**: 2026-05-04 16:00:00 UTC + +## Trade Summary + +| Field | Details | +|-------|---------| +| **Market** | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | +| **Trade Size** | $9,600.00 USDC | +| **Direction** | BUY Yes Token (Bullish) | +| **Trade Price** | 0.7142 (71.4%) | +| **Current Odds** | Yes: 69.5% | No: 30.5% | +| **Trade Time** | 2026-05-04 23:41:12 | +| **Trader Rank** | #1733 (PnL: $84,695.33) | + +====================================================================== + +## Full Analysis Report + +### Step 2: Trade Signal Analysis + +**Trader Profile Assessment:** +- **Rank #1733** — mid-tier experienced trader, not top-tier elite +- **PnL: $84,695** — solid positive track record across ~$4M lifetime volume +- **Avg trade size: $10,018** — this $9,600 trade is perfectly in-line with his normal size, not an unusual outlier +- **Large trade ratio: 66%** — consistent whale behavior, large trades are routine for this trader +- **Domain expertise: Strong Iran/geopolitics focus** — recent trades include Iranian regime fall (April/June), US-Iran meetings (April/June), Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, Ukraine Donbas. This is clearly a geopolitics specialist with deep focus on Iran specifically. + +**Trade Timing:** The trade was made at 23:41 UTC on May 4, 2026. Given the active diplomatic situation, this is a routine positioning trade, not an oddly-timed pre-announcement bet. + +--- + +### Step 3: Event-Related Position Analysis + +The whale has a **losing position** in the earlier "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?" market: +- Holding Yes tokens @ avg 65.29%, now priced at **15.50%** +- Cost basis: $8,534 | Current value: $2,026 | **PnL: -$6,508 (LOSS)** + +This is critical context: +1. The trader **bet heavily on a May 15 meeting** and that bet is **nearly dead** (15.5% odds) +2. The June 30 buy ($9,600) appears to be a **portfolio roll-forward** — doubling down on the same thesis with a later deadline to recoup losses +3. This is NOT a fresh, confident insider bet — it's a **loss recovery / thesis extension trade** +4. The pattern suggests the trader is sticking to a bullish Iran-diplomacy thesis despite being wrong on the nearer-term deadline + +--- + +### Step 4: Market Long/Short Analysis + +**Bulls (Yes side):** +- **anoin123** (Rank #2,682,942, PnL **-$5.54M**) — massive loser, leads the Yes side with $39K. This is a **red flag** — the biggest Yes holder is a chronic loser +- **ArmageddonRewardsBilly** (Rank #278, PnL $525K) — elite trader, $11K on Yes. This is the strongest bull signal +- **cezarn132** (the whale) — Rank #1733, $9.3K Yes + +**Bears (No side):** +- **aaron107** (Rank #48,390) — low-ranked, leads No +- **yungstalin** (Rank #1,969, PnL $73,759) — solid mid-tier trader on No side + +**Smart Money Consensus:** Mixed. One elite trader (Rank #278) is bullish, but the biggest Yes position belongs to a massive loser. The No side lacks elite concentration too. No clear smart money consensus signal in either direction. + +--- + +### Step 5: Information Gap Analysis + +**Public Information Summary:** +- There was already an indirect round of talks in Islamabad, Pakistan in late April 2026 (confirmed by Wikipedia) +- US envoy Steve Witkoff stated Washington is "in conversation" with Iran +- Iran's FM Araghchi has made public proposals for a 3-phase deal +- Market odds for June 30 meeting are ~69.5% — already well-priced for the optimistic scenario +- However, the **May 15 market is at just 15.5%**, showing markets believe a near-term meeting is unlikely +- Twitter data shows @faststocknewss noting "POLYMARKET ODDS OF A US-IRAN DIPLOMATIC MEETING ARE FADING" — the June 30 market was previously at 80%+ and has dropped to 66-69% + +**Key Information Assessment:** +- All available information about Iran-US diplomacy is extensively covered in public media +- The market at 69.5% appears to **reasonably price** the known information +- No evidence of non-public information advantage — this appears to be public-information-based analysis +- The trade is consistent with this trader's established Iran geopolitics thesis + +--- + +### Step 6: Historical Pattern + +This trader has a **clear and consistent pattern**: +- Bought "Iranian regime fall by April 30" at 0.86 → **SOLD at 0.98** (big win) +- Bought "Iranian regime fall by June 30" at 0.76 and 0.74 → Still holding +- Bet on "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25/May 15" → **LOSING** at 15.5% + +The pattern suggests this trader uses a "timeline ladder" approach — betting on Iran-related events across multiple deadlines. When early deadlines miss, they roll to later ones. This reduces the information asymmetry signal significantly. + +--- + +## Step 7: Information Asymmetry Assessment + +```json +{ + "information_asymmetry_score": 0.32, + "trader_credibility": "MEDIUM", + "reasoning": "Trader cezarn132 (Rank #1733, PnL $84K) is a confirmed geopolitics specialist with deep Iran-focused trading history. However, several factors suppress the information asymmetry score: (1) The $9,600 trade is exactly in-line with this trader's average trade size ($10K), making it routine rather than an exceptional conviction bet. (2) The trader currently holds a heavily losing position in the nearer 'May 15' meeting market (down $6,508), and this June 30 buy appears to be a thesis roll-forward/loss recovery strategy rather than a fresh insider signal. (3) All supporting information (Islamabad talks, Witkoff statements, Iranian proposals) is extensively public and already priced into the ~69.5% market odds.", + "insider_evidence": "No insider evidence found. All information supporting the bullish Iran diplomacy view is widely reported in mainstream media. The trade is most consistent with a thesis-continuation/loss-recovery strategy following a losing May 15 position." +} +``` + +--- + +### Summary Table + +| Factor | Assessment | Signal Strength | +|--------|-----------|-----------------| +| Trader Rank/PnL | Rank #1733, $84K PnL | Moderate | +| Trade Size vs. Normal | ~$9.6K vs. avg $10K | Routine — neutral | +| Related Position | Heavy loser on May 15 meeting (-$6.5K) | Suppresses signal | +| Domain Expertise | Iran geopolitics specialist | Supportive | +| Public Info Coverage | Extensive public news on US-Iran talks | Reduces asymmetry | +| Market Pricing | Already at 69.5% — well-priced | Reduces asymmetry | +| Smart Money Bulls | Rank #278 also long | Modest support | +| Biggest Yes Holder | Rank #2.6M, -$5.5M PnL | Negative signal | +| **Overall** | **Likely thesis continuation, not insider signal** | **Low-Medium** | + +**Recommended Action: HOLD/PASS** — This trade reflects a geopolitics analyst rolling forward a losing thesis rather than a trader acting on non-public information. + +====================================================================== +## Information Asymmetry Assessment +====================================================================== + +| Field | Assessment | +|-------|------------| +| **Information Asymmetry** | Low Information Asymmetry (32%) | +| **Trader Credibility** | Medium Credibility (#1733) | + +**Key Evidence**: No insider evidence found. All information supporting the bullish Iran diplomacy view is widely reported in mainstream media. The trade is most consistent with a thesis-continuation/loss-recovery strategy following a losing May 15 position. + +**Reasoning**: Trader cezarn132 (Rank #1733, PnL $84K) is a confirmed geopolitics specialist with deep Iran-focused trading history. However, several factors suppress the information asymmetry score: (1) routine trade size, (2) losing position on nearer deadline, (3) extensive public information coverage, (4) declining market odds, (5) mixed smart money picture, (6) large geopolitical market with many participants. + +====================================================================== +Disclaimer: This report is AI-generated for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. +====================================================================== diff --git a/docs/examples/sample_terminal.txt b/docs/examples/sample_terminal.txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e424d78 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/examples/sample_terminal.txt @@ -0,0 +1,54 @@ +$ python -m src.main run + +╭──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╮ +│ 🐋 Polymarket Whale Watcher │ +│ │ +│ Markets Monitored: 50 │ +│ Polling Interval: 15s │ +│ Min Trade Size: $1,000 │ +│ Price Range: 0 - 0.7 │ +╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯ + +[14:22:41] 🔄 Refreshing trending markets... Found 50 active markets +[14:22:43] 👀 Monitoring: Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026? +[14:22:43] 👀 Monitoring: US forces enter Iran by April 30 +[14:22:43] 👀 Monitoring: Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orban? + ... (47 more markets) + +[14:22:51] 🐋 WHALE DETECTED on "Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026?" + BUY Yes @ 0.4200 | $92,336 USDC | Wallet: 0x7a3b...f91e + Anomaly Score: 0.78/1.00 + +[14:22:52] 🔍 Analyzing whale trade... + → Fetching trader ranking... Rank #47 (PnL: $284,521) + → Fetching trader history... 156 recent trades + → Fetching event positions... 3 related markets + → Fetching market top traders... 5 bulls, 5 bears + +[14:22:53] 🤖 LLM Analysis started (model: gemini-3-flash-preview) + → Tool call: search_web("MegaETH token launch date 2026") + → Tool call: search_twitter("MegaETH $METH token TGE") + → Tool call: get_protocol_tvl("megaeth") + → Tool call: get_contract_info("0x4f9b...2a1c") + → Tool call: search_telegram("MegaETH launch") + +[14:23:07] ✅ Analysis complete + Information Asymmetry Score: 0.72 (HIGH) + Recommendation: BUY Yes | Confidence: 0.75 + Report saved: reports/20260415/20260415_142307_BUY_92336USD_MegaETH_token.md + +[14:23:07] 📧 Email alert sent (IAS >= 60%) + +[14:23:15] 🐋 WHALE DETECTED on "US forces enter Iran by April 30" + BUY Yes @ 0.3100 | $46,500 USDC | Wallet: 0x2c8e...a4d2 + Anomaly Score: 0.71/1.00 + +[14:23:16] 🔍 Analyzing whale trade... + ... + +[14:37:41] 🔄 Refreshing trending markets... Found 48 active markets (2 resolved) + +[15:00:00] 📊 Resolution check: 3 markets resolved since last check + → "EdgeX FDV above 400M" resolved YES — Signal was CORRECT (ROI: +142%) + → "Will Trump talk to Rutte" resolved NO — Signal was INCORRECT + → "Over 9M committed to P2P" resolved YES — Signal was CORRECT (ROI: +67%) diff --git a/pyproject.toml b/pyproject.toml new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3b66cfd --- /dev/null +++ b/pyproject.toml @@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ +[build-system] +requires = ["setuptools>=61.0", "wheel"] +build-backend = "setuptools.build_meta" + +[project] +name = "polymarket-whale-watcher" +version = "0.1.0" +description = "AI-powered whale trade detection and analysis bot for Polymarket" +readme = "README.md" +requires-python = ">=3.10" +license = {text = "MIT"} +dependencies = [ + "httpx>=0.27.0", + "websockets>=13.0", + "requests>=2.28.0", + "pydantic>=2.0.0", + "pydantic-settings>=2.0.0", + "python-dotenv>=1.0.0", + "openai>=1.0.0", + "rich>=13.0.0", + "typer>=0.9.0", + "duckduckgo-search>=7.0.0", + "telethon>=1.36.0", + "fastapi>=0.100.0", + "uvicorn>=0.20.0", +] + +[project.optional-dependencies] +dev = [ + "pytest>=7.0.0", + "pytest-asyncio>=0.23.0", + "ruff>=0.1.0", + "mypy>=1.0.0", +] + +[project.scripts] +whale-watcher = "src.main:main" + +[tool.ruff] +line-length = 100 +target-version = "py310" + +[tool.ruff.lint] +select = ["E", "F", "I", "W"] + +[tool.mypy] +python_version = "3.10" +warn_return_any = true +warn_unused_configs = true \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/reports/20260505/20260505_000000_BUY_9599USD_US_x_Iran_diplomatic_meeting_by_June_30_2026.md b/reports/20260505/20260505_000000_BUY_9599USD_US_x_Iran_diplomatic_meeting_by_June_30_2026.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..780e222 --- /dev/null +++ b/reports/20260505/20260505_000000_BUY_9599USD_US_x_Iran_diplomatic_meeting_by_June_30_2026.md @@ -0,0 +1,143 @@ + +====================================================================== +# Whale Trade Analysis Report +====================================================================== + +**Generated at**: 2026-05-04 16:00:00 UTC + +## Trade Summary + +| Field | Details | +|-------|---------| +| **Market** | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | +| **Trade Size** | $9,600.00 USDC | +| **Direction** | BUY Yes Token (Bullish) | +| **Trade Price** | 0.7142 (71.4%) | +| **Current Odds** | Yes: 69.5% | No: 30.5% | +| **Trade Time** | 2026-05-04 23:41:12 | +| **Trader Rank** | #1733 (PnL: $84,695.33) | + +====================================================================== + +I have comprehensive data. Let me now conduct a thorough analysis. + +--- + +## Full Analysis Report + +### Step 2: Trade Signal Analysis + +**Trader Profile Assessment:** +- **Rank #1733** — mid-tier experienced trader, not top-tier elite +- **PnL: $84,695** — solid positive track record across ~$4M lifetime volume +- **Avg trade size: $10,018** — this $9,600 trade is perfectly in-line with his normal size, not an unusual outlier +- **Large trade ratio: 66%** — consistent whale behavior, large trades are routine for this trader +- **Domain expertise: Strong Iran/geopolitics focus** — recent trades include Iranian regime fall (April/June), US-Iran meetings (April/June), Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, Ukraine Donbas. This is clearly a geopolitics specialist with deep focus on Iran specifically. + +**Trade Timing:** The trade was made at 23:41 UTC on May 4, 2026. Given the active diplomatic situation, this is a routine positioning trade, not an oddly-timed pre-announcement bet. + +--- + +### Step 3: Event-Related Position Analysis — 🚨 KEY FINDING + +The whale has a **losing position** in the earlier "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?" market: +- Holding Yes tokens @ avg 65.29%, now priced at **15.50%** +- Cost basis: $8,534 | Current value: $2,026 | **PnL: -$6,508 (LOSS)** + +This is critical context: +1. The trader **bet heavily on a May 15 meeting** and that bet is **nearly dead** (15.5% odds) +2. The June 30 buy ($9,600) appears to be a **portfolio roll-forward** — doubling down on the same thesis with a later deadline to recoup losses +3. This is NOT a fresh, confident insider bet — it's a **loss recovery / thesis extension trade** +4. The pattern suggests the trader is sticking to a bullish Iran-diplomacy thesis despite being wrong on the nearer-term deadline + +--- + +### Step 4: Market Long/Short Analysis + +**Bulls (Yes side):** +- **anoin123** (Rank #2,682,942, PnL **-$5.54M**) — massive loser, leads the Yes side with $39K. This is a **red flag** — the biggest Yes holder is a chronic loser +- **ArmageddonRewardsBilly** (Rank #278, PnL $525K) — elite trader, $11K on Yes. This is the strongest bull signal +- **cezarn132** (the whale) — Rank #1733, $9.3K Yes + +**Bears (No side):** +- **aaron107** (Rank #48,390) — low-ranked, leads No +- **yungstalin** (Rank #1,969, PnL $73,759) — solid mid-tier trader on No side + +**Smart Money Consensus:** Mixed. One elite trader (Rank #278) is bullish, but the biggest Yes position belongs to a massive loser. The No side lacks elite concentration too. No clear smart money consensus signal in either direction. + +--- + +### Step 5: Information Gap Analysis + +**Public Information Summary:** +- There was already an indirect round of talks in Islamabad, Pakistan in late April 2026 (confirmed by Wikipedia) +- US envoy Steve Witkoff stated Washington is "in conversation" with Iran +- Iran's FM Araghchi has made public proposals for a 3-phase deal +- Market odds for June 30 meeting are ~69.5% — already well-priced for the optimistic scenario +- However, the **May 15 market is at just 15.5%**, showing markets believe a near-term meeting is unlikely +- Twitter data shows @faststocknewss noting "POLYMARKET ODDS OF A US-IRAN DIPLOMATIC MEETING ARE FADING" — the June 30 market was previously at 80%+ and has dropped to 66-69% + +**Key Information Assessment:** +- All available information about Iran-US diplomacy is extensively covered in public media +- The market at 69.5% appears to **reasonably price** the known information +- No evidence of non-public information advantage — this appears to be public-information-based analysis +- The trade is consistent with this trader's established Iran geopolitics thesis + +--- + +### Step 6: Historical Pattern + +This trader has a **clear and consistent pattern**: +- Bought "Iranian regime fall by April 30" at 0.86 → **SOLD at 0.98** (big win ✅) +- Bought "Iranian regime fall by June 30" at 0.76 and 0.74 → Still holding +- Bet on "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25/May 15" → **LOSING** at 15.5% + +The pattern suggests this trader uses a "timeline ladder" approach — betting on Iran-related events across multiple deadlines. When early deadlines miss, they roll to later ones. This reduces the information asymmetry signal significantly. + +--- + +## Step 7: Information Asymmetry Assessment + +```json +{ + "information_asymmetry_score": 0.32, + "trader_credibility": "MEDIUM", + "reasoning": "Trader cezarn132 (Rank #1733, PnL $84K) is a confirmed geopolitics specialist with deep Iran-focused trading history. However, several factors suppress the information asymmetry score: (1) The $9,600 trade is exactly in-line with this trader's average trade size ($10K), making it routine rather than an exceptional conviction bet. (2) The trader currently holds a heavily losing position in the nearer 'May 15' meeting market (down $6,508), and this June 30 buy appears to be a thesis roll-forward/loss recovery strategy rather than a fresh insider signal. (3) All supporting information (Islamabad talks, Witkoff statements, Iranian proposals) is extensively public and already priced into the ~69.5% market odds. (4) The market was previously at 80%+ and has been declining — this is a contrarian hold, not a momentum play. (5) The smart money picture is mixed — the largest Yes holder is a chronic losing trader. (6) This is a large geopolitical market with many participants, where public analysis rather than non-public information drives most trades. The trader demonstrates domain expertise and pattern consistency, but no evidence of non-public information access.", + "insider_evidence": "No insider evidence found. All information supporting the bullish Iran diplomacy view (Islamabad round 1 talks, Witkoff statements, Iranian FM proposals, Oman mediation) is widely reported in mainstream media. The trade is most consistent with a thesis-continuation/loss-recovery strategy following a losing May 15 position, rather than a fresh signal based on non-public information." +} +``` + +--- + +### Summary Table + +| Factor | Assessment | Signal Strength | +|--------|-----------|-----------------| +| Trader Rank/PnL | Rank #1733, $84K PnL | Moderate ✅ | +| Trade Size vs. Normal | ~$9.6K vs. avg $10K | Routine — neutral ➖ | +| Related Position | Heavy loser on May 15 meeting (-$6.5K) | Suppresses signal ❌ | +| Domain Expertise | Iran geopolitics specialist | Supportive ✅ | +| Public Info Coverage | Extensive public news on US-Iran talks | Reduces asymmetry ❌ | +| Market Pricing | Already at 69.5% — well-priced | Reduces asymmetry ❌ | +| Smart Money Bulls | Rank #278 also long | Modest support ✅ | +| Biggest Yes Holder | Rank #2.6M, -$5.5M PnL | Negative signal ❌ | +| **Overall** | **Likely thesis continuation, not insider signal** | **Low-Medium** | + +**Recommended Action: HOLD/PASS** — This trade reflects a geopolitics analyst rolling forward a losing thesis rather than a trader acting on non-public information. The market is already fairly priced at ~69.5% based on extensive public information about ongoing US-Iran diplomatic channels. + +====================================================================== +## Information Asymmetry Assessment +====================================================================== + +| Field | Assessment | +|-------|------------| +| **Information Asymmetry** | Low Information Asymmetry (32%) | +| **Trader Credibility** | Medium Credibility (#1733) | + +**Key Evidence**: No insider evidence found. All information supporting the bullish Iran diplomacy view (Islamabad round 1 talks, Witkoff statements, Iranian FM proposals, Oman mediation) is widely reported in mainstream media. The trade is most consistent with a thesis-continuation/loss-recovery strategy following a losing May 15 position, rather than a fresh signal based on non-public information. + +**Reasoning**: Trader cezarn132 (Rank #1733, PnL $84K) is a confirmed geopolitics specialist with deep Iran-focused trading history. However, several factors suppress the information asymmetry score: (1) The $9,600 trade is exactly in-line with this trader's average trade size ($10K), making it routine rather than an exceptional conviction bet. (2) The trader currently holds a heavily losing position in the nearer 'May 15' meeting market (down $6,508), and this June 30 buy appears to be a thesis roll-forward/loss recovery strategy rather than a fresh insider signal. (3) All supporting information (Islamabad talks, Witkoff statements, Iranian proposals) is extensively public and already priced into the ~69.5% market odds. (4) The market was previously at 80%+ and has been declining — this is a contrarian hold, not a momentum play. (5) The smart money picture is mixed — the largest Yes holder is a chronic losing trader. (6) This is a large geopolitical market with many participants, where public analysis rather than non-public information drives most trades. The trader demonstrates domain expertise and pattern consistency, but no evidence of non-public information access. + +====================================================================== +Disclaimer: This report is AI-generated for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. +====================================================================== diff --git a/scripts/telegram_auth.py b/scripts/telegram_auth.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..38347d1 --- /dev/null +++ b/scripts/telegram_auth.py @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +""" +One-time script to generate a Telegram session string. + +Usage: + python scripts/telegram_auth.py + +You'll need: +1. Go to https://my.telegram.org and create an application +2. Get your api_id and api_hash +3. Run this script and enter your phone number +4. Enter the verification code sent to your Telegram +5. Copy the session string into your .env file as TELEGRAM_SESSION_STRING +""" +import asyncio +from telethon import TelegramClient +from telethon.sessions import StringSession + + +async def main(): + print("=== Telegram Session Generator ===\n") + print("Get api_id and api_hash from https://my.telegram.org\n") + + api_id = input("Enter api_id: ").strip() + api_hash = input("Enter api_hash: ").strip() + + client = TelegramClient(StringSession(), int(api_id), api_hash) + + await client.start() + + session_string = client.session.save() + + print(f"\n{'='*60}") + print("Your session string (add to .env):\n") + print(f"TELEGRAM_SESSION_STRING={session_string}") + print(f"\n{'='*60}") + print("Keep this string secret! It provides access to your account.") + + await client.disconnect() + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + asyncio.run(main()) diff --git a/setup.sh b/setup.sh new file mode 100644 index 0000000..bc80047 --- /dev/null +++ b/setup.sh @@ -0,0 +1,220 @@ +#!/usr/bin/env bash +# Polymarket Whale Watcher - One-Click Setup +# Usage: chmod +x setup.sh && ./setup.sh + +set -e + +CYAN='\033[0;36m' +GREEN='\033[0;32m' +YELLOW='\033[1;33m' +RED='\033[0;31m' +DIM='\033[2m' +BOLD='\033[1m' +NC='\033[0m' + +echo -e "${CYAN}" +echo "╭──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╮" +echo "│ 🐋 Polymarket Whale Watcher Setup │" +echo "╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯" +echo -e "${NC}" + +# ============================================================ +# Step 1: Check Python +# ============================================================ +echo -e "${CYAN}[1/4]${NC} Checking Python version..." +if ! command -v python3 &> /dev/null; then + echo -e "${RED}Error: Python 3 is required but not installed.${NC}" + echo " Install from https://www.python.org/downloads/" + exit 1 +fi + +PYTHON_VERSION=$(python3 -c 'import sys; print(f"{sys.version_info.major}.{sys.version_info.minor}")') +PYTHON_MAJOR=$(echo "$PYTHON_VERSION" | cut -d. -f1) +PYTHON_MINOR=$(echo "$PYTHON_VERSION" | cut -d. -f2) + +if [ "$PYTHON_MAJOR" -lt 3 ] || ([ "$PYTHON_MAJOR" -eq 3 ] && [ "$PYTHON_MINOR" -lt 10 ]); then + echo -e "${RED}Error: Python 3.10+ required, found $PYTHON_VERSION${NC}" + exit 1 +fi +echo -e " ${GREEN}✓${NC} Python $PYTHON_VERSION" + +# ============================================================ +# Step 2: Virtual environment +# ============================================================ +echo -e "${CYAN}[2/4]${NC} Setting up virtual environment..." +if [ ! -d "venv" ]; then + python3 -m venv venv + echo -e " ${GREEN}✓${NC} Virtual environment created" +else + echo -e " ${GREEN}✓${NC} Virtual environment already exists" +fi + +# ============================================================ +# Step 3: Install dependencies +# ============================================================ +echo -e "${CYAN}[3/4]${NC} Installing dependencies..." +source venv/bin/activate +pip install --upgrade pip -q +pip install -r requirements.txt -q +echo -e " ${GREEN}✓${NC} Dependencies installed" + +# Create data directories +mkdir -p data reports daily_briefings + +# ============================================================ +# Step 4: API Key Configuration +# ============================================================ +echo -e "${CYAN}[4/4]${NC} Configuring API keys..." +echo "" + +if [ -f ".env" ]; then + echo -e " ${YELLOW}Found existing .env file.${NC}" + read -p " Overwrite and reconfigure? [y/N] " overwrite + if [[ ! "$overwrite" =~ ^[Yy]$ ]]; then + echo -e " ${GREEN}✓${NC} Keeping existing .env" + echo "" + echo -e "${GREEN}Setup complete! Run:${NC}" + echo " source venv/bin/activate" + echo " python -m src.main run" + exit 0 + fi +fi + +cp .env.example .env + +# Helper function: prompt for a key and write to .env +set_key() { + local var_name="$1" + local prompt_text="$2" + local url="$3" + local required="$4" + + echo "" + if [ "$required" = "required" ]; then + echo -e " ${BOLD}${var_name}${NC} ${RED}(required)${NC}" + else + echo -e " ${BOLD}${var_name}${NC} ${DIM}(optional, press Enter to skip)${NC}" + fi + echo -e " ${DIM}$prompt_text${NC}" + echo -e " ${DIM}→ $url${NC}" + + while true; do + read -p " Key: " key_value + if [ -z "$key_value" ]; then + if [ "$required" = "required" ]; then + echo -e " ${RED}This key is required. Please enter a value.${NC}" + continue + else + echo -e " ${DIM}Skipped${NC}" + return + fi + fi + break + done + + # Replace the placeholder in .env + if grep -q "^${var_name}=" .env; then + sed -i.bak "s|^${var_name}=.*|${var_name}=${key_value}|" .env + elif grep -q "^# ${var_name}=" .env; then + sed -i.bak "s|^# ${var_name}=.*|${var_name}=${key_value}|" .env + else + echo "${var_name}=${key_value}" >> .env + fi + rm -f .env.bak + echo -e " ${GREEN}✓ Saved${NC}" +} + +echo -e "${CYAN}╭──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╮${NC}" +echo -e "${CYAN}│ API Key Configuration │${NC}" +echo -e "${CYAN}│ │${NC}" +echo -e "${CYAN}│ The more keys you add, the better the analysis. │${NC}" +echo -e "${CYAN}│ Only LLM_API_KEY is required. Others are optional but │${NC}" +echo -e "${CYAN}│ strongly recommended for full coverage. │${NC}" +echo -e "${CYAN}╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯${NC}" + +# --- Required --- +echo "" +echo -e "${YELLOW}━━━ Required (LLM Engine) ━━━${NC}" + +set_key "LLM_API_KEY" \ + "Powers the LLM analysis (OpenAI-compatible)" \ + "https://platform.openai.com/api-keys" \ + "required" + +# --- Core Search --- +echo "" +echo -e "${YELLOW}━━━ Web Search (strongly recommended) ━━━${NC}" +echo -e "${DIM} Without these, LLM falls back to DuckDuckGo (lower quality)${NC}" + +set_key "TAVILY_API_KEY" \ + "Best web search quality, 1000 free searches/month" \ + "https://app.tavily.com/home" + +set_key "SERPER_API_KEY" \ + "Google search fallback, 2500 free searches" \ + "https://serper.dev" + +# --- Social Sentiment --- +echo "" +echo -e "${YELLOW}━━━ Social Sentiment ━━━${NC}" + +set_key "TWITTER_API_KEY" \ + "Twitter/X sentiment & breaking news search" \ + "https://developer.x.com/en/portal/dashboard" + +# --- Financial Data --- +echo "" +echo -e "${YELLOW}━━━ Financial & On-Chain Data ━━━${NC}" + +set_key "POLYGON_API_KEY" \ + "Stock, ETF, forex, commodities data (free tier)" \ + "https://polygon.io/dashboard/signup" + +set_key "FRED_API_KEY" \ + "US economic indicators (free, instant approval)" \ + "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/docs/api/api_key.html" + +set_key "ETHERSCAN_API_KEY" \ + "On-chain wallet & contract analysis (free tier)" \ + "https://etherscan.io/myapikey" + +set_key "CONGRESS_API_KEY" \ + "US legislation & bills tracking (free)" \ + "https://api.congress.gov/sign-up/" + +# --- Summary --- +echo "" +echo "" + +# Count configured keys +configured=0 +total=8 +for var in LLM_API_KEY TAVILY_API_KEY SERPER_API_KEY TWITTER_API_KEY POLYGON_API_KEY FRED_API_KEY ETHERSCAN_API_KEY CONGRESS_API_KEY; do + val=$(grep "^${var}=" .env 2>/dev/null | cut -d= -f2-) + if [ -n "$val" ] && [ "$val" != "your_api_key_here" ]; then + configured=$((configured + 1)) + fi +done + +echo -e "${GREEN}╭──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╮${NC}" +echo -e "${GREEN}│ ✅ Setup Complete! │${NC}" +echo -e "${GREEN}│ │${NC}" +echo -e "${GREEN}│ API Keys configured: ${configured}/${total} │${NC}" +echo -e "${GREEN}╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯${NC}" + +if [ "$configured" -lt 4 ]; then + echo "" + echo -e " ${YELLOW}Tip: More API keys = better analysis coverage.${NC}" + echo -e " ${YELLOW}You can edit .env anytime to add more keys later.${NC}" +fi + +echo "" +echo " Start monitoring:" +echo -e " ${BOLD}source venv/bin/activate${NC}" +echo -e " ${BOLD}python -m src.main run${NC}" +echo "" +echo " Other commands:" +echo " python -m src.main check-markets # View trending markets" +echo " python -m src.main dashboard # Web dashboard" +echo " python -m src.main briefing --today # Daily briefing" +echo "" \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/src/__init__.py b/src/__init__.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8eaa512 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/__init__.py @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +"""Polymarket Whale Watcher - AI-powered whale trade detection and analysis.""" diff --git a/src/config/__init__.py b/src/config/__init__.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b3838a7 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/config/__init__.py @@ -0,0 +1,4 @@ +"""Configuration module.""" +from .settings import Settings, get_settings + +__all__ = ["Settings", "get_settings"] diff --git a/src/config/settings.py b/src/config/settings.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5ef74f9 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/config/settings.py @@ -0,0 +1,95 @@ +"""Application settings and configuration.""" +import os +from functools import lru_cache +from typing import Optional + +from dotenv import load_dotenv +from pydantic import Field +from pydantic_settings import BaseSettings + + +class Settings(BaseSettings): + """Application settings loaded from environment variables.""" + + # LLM API (OpenAI-compatible proxy) + llm_api_key: str = Field(default="", alias="LLM_API_KEY") + llm_base_url: str = Field(default="https://generativelanguage.googleapis.com/v1beta/openai/", alias="LLM_BASE_URL") + + # Twitter API (for social sentiment search) + twitter_api_key: str = Field(default="", alias="TWITTER_API_KEY") + + # Tavily API (for web search, replaces Google Search) + tavily_api_key: str = Field(default="", alias="TAVILY_API_KEY") + + # Serper API (web search fallback) + serper_api_key: str = Field(default="", alias="SERPER_API_KEY") + + # FRED API (macroeconomic data) + fred_api_key: str = Field(default="", alias="FRED_API_KEY") + + # Polygon.io API (stocks, forex, commodities) + polygon_api_key: str = Field(default="", alias="POLYGON_API_KEY") + + # Congress.gov API (U.S. legislation) + congress_api_key: str = Field(default="", alias="CONGRESS_API_KEY") + + # Etherscan API (on-chain data) + etherscan_api_key: str = Field(default="", alias="ETHERSCAN_API_KEY") + + # Telegram API (crypto channel monitoring) + telegram_api_id: str = Field(default="", alias="TELEGRAM_API_ID") + telegram_api_hash: str = Field(default="", alias="TELEGRAM_API_HASH") + telegram_session_string: str = Field(default="", alias="TELEGRAM_SESSION_STRING") + telegram_channels: str = Field(default="", alias="TELEGRAM_CHANNELS") + + + # MongoDB + mongodb_uri: str = Field(default="mongodb://localhost:27017/whale_watcher", alias="MONGODB_URI") + + # SQLite database + db_path: str = Field(default="data/signals.db", alias="DB_PATH") + + # HTTP Proxy (for users behind firewalls) + http_proxy: str = Field(default="", alias="HTTP_PROXY") + + # Whale Detection Settings + min_trade_size_usd: float = Field(default=1000.0, alias="MIN_TRADE_SIZE_USD") + min_price: float = Field(default=0.10, alias="MIN_PRICE") + max_price: float = Field(default=0.90, alias="MAX_PRICE") + + # Monitoring Settings + trending_markets_limit: int = Field(default=50, alias="TRENDING_MARKETS_LIMIT") + + # Market coverage (volume thresholds for monitoring list) + full_market_scan: bool = Field(default=True, alias="FULL_MARKET_SCAN") + tier1_volume_min: float = Field(default=500_000, alias="TIER1_VOLUME_MIN") + tier2_volume_min: float = Field(default=10_000, alias="TIER2_VOLUME_MIN") + tier3_volume_min: float = Field(default=1_000, alias="TIER3_VOLUME_MIN") + + # LLM Settings + llm_model: str = Field(default="gemini-3.1-pro-preview", alias="LLM_MODEL") + llm_temperature: float = Field(default=0.0, alias="LLM_TEMPERATURE") + + + # Email notification + email_smtp_server: str = Field(default="smtp.qq.com", alias="EMAIL_SMTP_SERVER") + email_smtp_port: int = Field(default=465, alias="EMAIL_SMTP_PORT") + email_sender: str = Field(default="", alias="EMAIL_SENDER") + email_password: str = Field(default="", alias="EMAIL_PASSWORD") + email_recipient: str = Field(default="1253608463@qq.com,lyk@sii.edu.cn,1286874010@qq.com,tianhao.alex.huang@gmail.com", alias="EMAIL_RECIPIENT") + email_enabled: bool = Field(default=False, alias="EMAIL_ENABLED") + + # Logging + log_level: str = Field(default="INFO", alias="LOG_LEVEL") + + class Config: + env_file = ".env" + env_file_encoding = "utf-8" + extra = "ignore" + + +@lru_cache +def get_settings() -> Settings: + """Get cached settings instance.""" + load_dotenv() + return Settings() \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/src/dashboard.py b/src/dashboard.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7cd570c --- /dev/null +++ b/src/dashboard.py @@ -0,0 +1,224 @@ +"""FastAPI dashboard for signal performance tracking.""" +import logging +from typing import Optional + +from fastapi import FastAPI, Query +from fastapi.responses import HTMLResponse + +from src.config import get_settings +from src.db.database import SignalDatabase +from src.services.stats_engine import StatsEngine + +logger = logging.getLogger(__name__) + +app = FastAPI(title="Polymarket Whale Watcher - Signal Dashboard") + + +def _get_db() -> SignalDatabase: + settings = get_settings() + return SignalDatabase(settings.db_path) + + +@app.get("/api/stats") +def api_stats(): + """Overall signal performance statistics.""" + db = _get_db() + return db.get_stats() + + +@app.get("/api/stats/tiers") +def api_stats_tiers(): + """Signal stats by information_asymmetry_score tier.""" + db = _get_db() + return db.get_stats_by_tier() + + +@app.get("/api/signals") +def api_signals( + limit: int = Query(50, ge=1, le=500), + offset: int = Query(0, ge=0), +): + """Paginated signal list (newest first).""" + db = _get_db() + signals = db.get_all_signals(limit=limit, offset=offset) + return [s.model_dump(mode="json") for s in signals] + + +@app.get("/api/signals/best-worst") +def api_best_worst(n: int = Query(5, ge=1, le=20)): + """Best and worst signals by theoretical ROI.""" + db = _get_db() + result = db.get_best_worst(n=n) + return { + "best": [s.model_dump(mode="json") for s in result["best"]], + "worst": [s.model_dump(mode="json") for s in result["worst"]], + } + + +@app.get("/", response_class=HTMLResponse) +def dashboard_page(): + """HTML dashboard page.""" + return HTML_TEMPLATE + + +HTML_TEMPLATE = """ + + + + +Polymarket Whale Watcher - Signal Dashboard + + + + +

Polymarket Whale Watcher

+

Signal Performance Dashboard

+

+ +
Loading...
+ + + + +""" \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/src/db/__init__.py b/src/db/__init__.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..60049d6 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/db/__init__.py @@ -0,0 +1,4 @@ +"""Database module for signal storage and tracking.""" +from src.db.database import SignalDatabase + +__all__ = ["SignalDatabase"] diff --git a/src/db/database.py b/src/db/database.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3855214 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/db/database.py @@ -0,0 +1,404 @@ +"""SQLite database for anomaly signal storage and resolution tracking.""" +import json +import logging +import sqlite3 +from datetime import datetime +from pathlib import Path +from typing import List, Optional + +from src.models.anomaly_signal import AnomalySignal +from src.models.trade import TraderRanking, TraderHistory + +logger = logging.getLogger(__name__) + + +class SignalDatabase: + """SQLite-backed storage for anomaly signals with resolution tracking.""" + + def __init__(self, db_path: str = "data/signals.db"): + self.db_path = Path(db_path) + self.db_path.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + self._init_db() + + def _get_conn(self) -> sqlite3.Connection: + conn = sqlite3.connect(str(self.db_path)) + conn.row_factory = sqlite3.Row + conn.execute("PRAGMA journal_mode=WAL") + return conn + + def _init_db(self): + with self._get_conn() as conn: + # Migrate: rename old column if it exists + try: + conn.execute( + "ALTER TABLE signals RENAME COLUMN insider_trading_likelihood TO information_asymmetry_score" + ) + logger.info("Migrated column: insider_trading_likelihood -> information_asymmetry_score") + except Exception: + pass # Column already renamed or table doesn't exist yet + + conn.execute(""" + CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS signals ( + id TEXT, + market_id TEXT NOT NULL, + market_question TEXT NOT NULL, + market_slug TEXT, + condition_id TEXT, + transaction_hash TEXT UNIQUE NOT NULL, + trade_timestamp INTEGER NOT NULL, + trade_side TEXT NOT NULL, + trade_price REAL NOT NULL, + trade_size_usd REAL NOT NULL, + trade_outcome TEXT NOT NULL, + trader_wallet TEXT, + trader_ranking_json TEXT, + trader_history_json TEXT, + information_asymmetry_score REAL NOT NULL DEFAULT 0.0, + reasoning TEXT DEFAULT '', + insider_evidence TEXT DEFAULT '', + detected_at TEXT NOT NULL, + market_resolved INTEGER DEFAULT 0, + market_resolved_at TEXT, + resolved_outcome TEXT, + signal_correct INTEGER, + theoretical_roi REAL + ) + """) + conn.execute(""" + CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_signals_market_id + ON signals(market_id) + """) + conn.execute(""" + CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_signals_market_resolved + ON signals(market_resolved) + """) + conn.execute(""" + CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_signals_likelihood + ON signals(information_asymmetry_score DESC) + """) + + def insert_signal(self, signal: AnomalySignal) -> bool: + """Insert a signal, deduplicating by transaction_hash. Returns True if inserted.""" + try: + with self._get_conn() as conn: + conn.execute(""" + INSERT OR IGNORE INTO signals ( + id, market_id, market_question, market_slug, condition_id, + transaction_hash, trade_timestamp, trade_side, trade_price, + trade_size_usd, trade_outcome, trader_wallet, + trader_ranking_json, trader_history_json, + information_asymmetry_score, reasoning, insider_evidence, + detected_at + ) VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?) + """, ( + signal.id, + signal.market_id, + signal.market_question, + signal.market_slug, + signal.condition_id, + signal.transaction_hash, + signal.trade_timestamp, + signal.trade_side, + signal.trade_price, + signal.trade_size_usd, + signal.trade_outcome, + signal.trader_wallet, + signal.trader_ranking.model_dump_json() if signal.trader_ranking else None, + signal.trader_history.model_dump_json() if signal.trader_history else None, + signal.information_asymmetry_score, + signal.reasoning, + signal.insider_evidence, + signal.detected_at.isoformat(), + )) + return conn.total_changes > 0 + except sqlite3.IntegrityError: + logger.debug(f"Signal already exists: {signal.transaction_hash}") + return False + except Exception as e: + logger.error(f"Failed to insert signal: {e}") + return False + + def _row_to_signal(self, row: sqlite3.Row) -> AnomalySignal: + """Convert a database row to an AnomalySignal.""" + trader_ranking = None + if row["trader_ranking_json"]: + try: + trader_ranking = TraderRanking.model_validate_json(row["trader_ranking_json"]) + except Exception: + pass + + trader_history = None + if row["trader_history_json"]: + try: + trader_history = TraderHistory.model_validate_json(row["trader_history_json"]) + except Exception: + pass + + return AnomalySignal( + id=row["id"] or "", + market_id=row["market_id"], + market_question=row["market_question"], + market_slug=row["market_slug"], + condition_id=row["condition_id"], + transaction_hash=row["transaction_hash"], + trade_timestamp=row["trade_timestamp"], + trade_side=row["trade_side"], + trade_price=row["trade_price"], + trade_size_usd=row["trade_size_usd"], + trade_outcome=row["trade_outcome"], + trader_wallet=row["trader_wallet"], + trader_ranking=trader_ranking, + trader_history=trader_history, + information_asymmetry_score=row["information_asymmetry_score"], + reasoning=row["reasoning"] or "", + insider_evidence=row["insider_evidence"] or "", + detected_at=datetime.fromisoformat(row["detected_at"]), + market_resolved=bool(row["market_resolved"]), + market_resolved_at=( + datetime.fromisoformat(row["market_resolved_at"]) + if row["market_resolved_at"] else None + ), + resolved_outcome=row["resolved_outcome"], + signal_correct=bool(row["signal_correct"]) if row["signal_correct"] is not None else None, + theoretical_roi=row["theoretical_roi"], + ) + + def get_signals_for_market( + self, + market_id: str, + top_recent: int = 5, + top_likelihood: int = 5, + min_likelihood: float = 0.4, + ) -> List[AnomalySignal]: + """Get top recent + top likelihood signals for a market, deduplicated. + Only returns signals with likelihood >= min_likelihood (for LLM context).""" + with self._get_conn() as conn: + # Top recent (above threshold only) + recent_rows = conn.execute( + "SELECT * FROM signals WHERE market_id = ? AND information_asymmetry_score >= ? ORDER BY trade_timestamp DESC LIMIT ?", + (market_id, min_likelihood, top_recent), + ).fetchall() + + # Top likelihood (above threshold only) + likelihood_rows = conn.execute( + "SELECT * FROM signals WHERE market_id = ? AND information_asymmetry_score >= ? ORDER BY information_asymmetry_score DESC LIMIT ?", + (market_id, min_likelihood, top_likelihood), + ).fetchall() + + seen = set() + combined = [] + for row in list(recent_rows) + list(likelihood_rows): + tx_hash = row["transaction_hash"] + if tx_hash not in seen: + seen.add(tx_hash) + combined.append(self._row_to_signal(row)) + + combined.sort(key=lambda s: s.trade_timestamp, reverse=True) + return combined + + def get_unresolved_market_ids(self) -> List[str]: + """Return distinct market_ids that have unresolved signals.""" + with self._get_conn() as conn: + rows = conn.execute( + "SELECT DISTINCT market_id FROM signals WHERE market_resolved = 0" + ).fetchall() + return [row["market_id"] for row in rows] + + def mark_market_resolved( + self, + market_id: str, + resolved_outcome: str, + resolved_at: datetime, + ) -> int: + """ + Mark all signals for a market as resolved and compute correctness/ROI. + Returns number of updated rows. + """ + with self._get_conn() as conn: + rows = conn.execute( + "SELECT transaction_hash, trade_outcome, trade_price FROM signals WHERE market_id = ? AND market_resolved = 0", + (market_id,), + ).fetchall() + + updated = 0 + for row in rows: + correct = row["trade_outcome"] == resolved_outcome + if correct: + roi = (1.0 - row["trade_price"]) / row["trade_price"] if row["trade_price"] > 0 else 0.0 + else: + roi = -1.0 + + conn.execute(""" + UPDATE signals SET + market_resolved = 1, + market_resolved_at = ?, + resolved_outcome = ?, + signal_correct = ?, + theoretical_roi = ? + WHERE transaction_hash = ? + """, ( + resolved_at.isoformat(), + resolved_outcome, + int(correct), + roi, + row["transaction_hash"], + )) + updated += 1 + + return updated + + def get_stats(self) -> dict: + """Aggregate statistics: total, resolved, correct, win_rate, avg_roi.""" + with self._get_conn() as conn: + row = conn.execute(""" + SELECT + COUNT(*) as total, + SUM(CASE WHEN market_resolved = 1 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) as resolved, + SUM(CASE WHEN signal_correct = 1 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) as correct, + AVG(CASE WHEN market_resolved = 1 THEN theoretical_roi END) as avg_roi, + SUM(CASE WHEN market_resolved = 1 THEN theoretical_roi ELSE 0 END) as total_pnl + FROM signals + """).fetchone() + + total = row["total"] + resolved = row["resolved"] or 0 + correct = row["correct"] or 0 + win_rate = correct / resolved if resolved > 0 else 0.0 + + last_updated = None + if total > 0: + last_row = conn.execute( + "SELECT detected_at FROM signals ORDER BY detected_at DESC LIMIT 1" + ).fetchone() + last_updated = last_row["detected_at"] if last_row else None + + return { + "total_signals": total, + "resolved": resolved, + "correct": correct, + "win_rate": win_rate, + "avg_roi": row["avg_roi"] or 0.0, + "total_theoretical_pnl": row["total_pnl"] or 0.0, + "last_updated": last_updated, + } + + def get_stats_by_tier(self) -> List[dict]: + """Stats grouped by information_asymmetry_score tiers.""" + tiers = [ + ("0.4-0.6", 0.4, 0.6), + ("0.6-0.8", 0.6, 0.8), + ("0.8-1.0", 0.8, 1.01), + ] + results = [] + with self._get_conn() as conn: + for label, low, high in tiers: + row = conn.execute(""" + SELECT + COUNT(*) as total, + SUM(CASE WHEN market_resolved = 1 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) as resolved, + SUM(CASE WHEN signal_correct = 1 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) as correct, + AVG(CASE WHEN market_resolved = 1 THEN theoretical_roi END) as avg_roi + FROM signals + WHERE information_asymmetry_score >= ? AND information_asymmetry_score < ? + """, (low, high)).fetchone() + + resolved = row["resolved"] or 0 + correct = row["correct"] or 0 + results.append({ + "tier": label, + "total": row["total"], + "resolved": resolved, + "correct": correct, + "win_rate": correct / resolved if resolved > 0 else 0.0, + "avg_roi": row["avg_roi"] or 0.0, + }) + + return results + + def get_all_signals(self, limit: int = 50, offset: int = 0) -> List[AnomalySignal]: + """Paginated query of all signals, newest first.""" + with self._get_conn() as conn: + rows = conn.execute( + "SELECT * FROM signals ORDER BY detected_at DESC LIMIT ? OFFSET ?", + (limit, offset), + ).fetchall() + return [self._row_to_signal(row) for row in rows] + + def get_all_market_ids(self) -> List[str]: + """Get all distinct market IDs.""" + with self._get_conn() as conn: + rows = conn.execute("SELECT DISTINCT market_id FROM signals").fetchall() + return [row["market_id"] for row in rows] + + def get_signal_count(self, market_id: Optional[str] = None) -> int: + """Count signals, optionally filtered by market_id.""" + with self._get_conn() as conn: + if market_id: + row = conn.execute( + "SELECT COUNT(*) as cnt FROM signals WHERE market_id = ?", (market_id,) + ).fetchone() + else: + row = conn.execute("SELECT COUNT(*) as cnt FROM signals").fetchone() + return row["cnt"] + + def cleanup_old_signals(self, max_age_days: int = 30) -> int: + """Remove signals older than max_age_days. Returns count removed.""" + from datetime import timedelta + cutoff = (datetime.utcnow() - timedelta(days=max_age_days)).isoformat() + with self._get_conn() as conn: + cursor = conn.execute( + "DELETE FROM signals WHERE detected_at < ?", (cutoff,) + ) + return cursor.rowcount + + def get_recent_resolved(self, limit: int = 20) -> List[AnomalySignal]: + """Get recently resolved signals.""" + with self._get_conn() as conn: + rows = conn.execute( + "SELECT * FROM signals WHERE market_resolved = 1 ORDER BY market_resolved_at DESC LIMIT ?", + (limit,), + ).fetchall() + return [self._row_to_signal(row) for row in rows] + + def get_best_worst(self, n: int = 5) -> dict: + """Get best and worst signals by ROI.""" + with self._get_conn() as conn: + best_rows = conn.execute( + "SELECT * FROM signals WHERE market_resolved = 1 ORDER BY theoretical_roi DESC LIMIT ?", + (n,), + ).fetchall() + worst_rows = conn.execute( + "SELECT * FROM signals WHERE market_resolved = 1 ORDER BY theoretical_roi ASC LIMIT ?", + (n,), + ).fetchall() + return { + "best": [self._row_to_signal(r) for r in best_rows], + "worst": [self._row_to_signal(r) for r in worst_rows], + } + + def migrate_from_json(self, json_dir: Path) -> int: + """One-time migration from JSON files to SQLite. Returns count migrated.""" + if not json_dir.exists(): + logger.warning(f"JSON directory not found: {json_dir}") + return 0 + + count = 0 + for json_file in json_dir.glob("*.json"): + try: + with open(json_file, 'r', encoding='utf-8') as f: + data = json.load(f) + + signals = data if isinstance(data, list) else data.get("signals", []) + for item in signals: + try: + signal = AnomalySignal.model_validate(item) + if self.insert_signal(signal): + count += 1 + except Exception as e: + logger.warning(f"Failed to parse signal from {json_file.name}: {e}") + + except Exception as e: + logger.error(f"Failed to load {json_file}: {e}") + + logger.info(f"Migrated {count} signals from JSON to SQLite") + return count \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/src/main.py b/src/main.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..50f5655 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/main.py @@ -0,0 +1,604 @@ +""" +Polymarket Whale Watcher - Main Entry Point + +This bot monitors Polymarket markets for large (whale) trades via +real-time WebSocket (RTDS) and generates AI-powered analysis reports. + +Flow: +1. Fetch market list (for enrichment metadata) +2. RTDS WebSocket receives ALL trades in real-time (zero missed trades) +3. Filter for whale trades (size, price range, conviction) +4. Generate analysis reports using LLM +5. Output reports for user review (no automatic trading) +""" +import asyncio +import os +import re +import signal +import smtplib +import sys +from email.mime.text import MIMEText +from email.mime.multipart import MIMEMultipart +from datetime import datetime, timedelta +from pathlib import Path +from typing import Optional + +import typer + +from src.config import get_settings +from src.db.database import SignalDatabase +from src.services.market_fetcher import MarketFetcher +from src.services.trade_monitor import TradeMonitor +from src.services.price_monitor import PriceMonitor, VolatilityAlert +from src.services.llm_analyzer import LLMAnalyzer +from src.services.volatility_analyzer import VolatilityAnalyzer +from src.services.daily_briefing import DailyBriefingGenerator +from src.services.resolution_tracker import ResolutionTracker +from src.models.trade import WhaleTrade +from src.utils.logger import setup_logging, WhaleWatcherLogger + +app = typer.Typer(help="Polymarket Whale Watcher - AI-powered whale trade analysis") +logger = WhaleWatcherLogger() + + +class WhaleWatcher: + """Main whale watcher application.""" + + # Reports directory + REPORTS_DIR = Path(__file__).parent.parent / "reports" + + def __init__(self): + self.settings = get_settings() + self.market_fetcher = MarketFetcher() + self.trade_monitor = TradeMonitor(on_whale_detected=self.on_whale_detected) + self.llm_analyzer = LLMAnalyzer() + + # Volatility analyzer for detecting "price leads news" signals + self.volatility_analyzer = VolatilityAnalyzer() + + # Price monitor for ALL active markets (independent from trade monitor) + self.price_monitor = PriceMonitor( + window_seconds=3600, # 1 hour + threshold=0.20, # 20% + poll_interval=60, # Poll every 60 seconds + on_volatility_detected=self.on_volatility_detected, + ) + + # Database and resolution tracker + self.db = SignalDatabase(self.settings.db_path) + self.resolution_tracker = ResolutionTracker(self.db) + + # Daily briefing generator + self.briefing_generator = DailyBriefingGenerator(self.settings.db_path) + + self._running = False + self._refresh_interval = 900 # Refresh markets every 15 minutes + self._resolution_check_interval = 1800 # Check resolutions every 30 minutes + self._last_briefing_date = None # Track last briefing date + + # Ensure reports directory exists + self.REPORTS_DIR.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + + def _sanitize_filename(self, text: str, max_length: int = 50) -> str: + """Sanitize text for use in filename.""" + # Remove special characters, keep alphanumeric and spaces + sanitized = re.sub(r'[^\w\s-]', '', text) + # Replace spaces with underscores + sanitized = re.sub(r'\s+', '_', sanitized) + # Truncate if too long + return sanitized[:max_length] + + def _save_report(self, whale_trade: WhaleTrade, full_report: str) -> str: + """ + Save report to a markdown file. + + Args: + whale_trade: The whale trade + full_report: The formatted report + + Returns: + Path to the saved file + """ + trade = whale_trade.trade + date_str = datetime.now().strftime("%Y%m%d") + timestamp = datetime.now().strftime("%Y%m%d_%H%M%S") + market_name = self._sanitize_filename(whale_trade.market_question) + + day_dir = self.REPORTS_DIR / date_str + day_dir.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + + filename = f"{timestamp}_{trade.side}_{int(trade.usdc_size)}USD_{market_name}.md" + filepath = day_dir / filename + + with open(filepath, "w", encoding="utf-8") as f: + f.write(full_report) + + return str(filepath) + + async def on_whale_detected(self, whale_trade: WhaleTrade) -> None: + """ + Callback when a whale trade is detected. + + Args: + whale_trade: The detected whale trade + """ + trade = whale_trade.trade + + # Log detection + logger.whale_detected( + amount=trade.usdc_size, + side=f"BUY {trade.outcome}", + price=trade.price, + market=whale_trade.market_question, + ) + + # Analyze with LLM + logger.info("Generating analysis report...") + decision = await self.llm_analyzer.analyze_whale_trade(whale_trade) + + # Print the full report (includes analysis + decision summary) + full_report = self.llm_analyzer.format_full_report( + whale_trade, + decision, + historical_signal_count=self.llm_analyzer.last_historical_signal_count, + ) + print(full_report) + + # Save report to file + filepath = self._save_report(whale_trade, full_report) + logger.info(f"Report saved to: {filepath}") + + # Real-time email alert for high information asymmetry (>= 60%) + ias = decision.recommendation.information_asymmetry_score + if ias >= 0.6: + self._send_alert_email(whale_trade, full_report, ias) + + logger.separator() + + def _send_alert_email(self, whale_trade: WhaleTrade, report: str, likelihood: float): + """Send real-time email alert for high information asymmetry signals.""" + settings = get_settings() + if not settings.email_enabled or not settings.email_sender or not settings.email_password: + return + + alert_recipient = "1253608463@qq.com" + trade = whale_trade.trade + + try: + subject = ( + f"Anomalous Trade Alert ({likelihood:.0%}) — " + f"BUY {trade.outcome} @ {trade.price:.4f} " + f"${trade.usdc_size:,.0f} — {whale_trade.market_question[:50]}" + ) + + msg = MIMEMultipart("alternative") + msg["Subject"] = subject + msg["From"] = settings.email_sender + msg["To"] = alert_recipient + msg.attach(MIMEText(report, "plain", "utf-8")) + + with smtplib.SMTP_SSL(settings.email_smtp_server, settings.email_smtp_port) as server: + server.login(settings.email_sender, settings.email_password) + server.sendmail(settings.email_sender, alert_recipient, msg.as_string()) + + logger.info(f"Insider alert email sent to {alert_recipient} (likelihood: {likelihood:.0%})") + except Exception as e: + logger.error(f"Failed to send alert email: {e}") + + async def on_volatility_detected(self, alert: VolatilityAlert) -> None: + """ + Callback when price volatility is detected. + + Analyzes the volatility to determine if it's a "price leads news" signal. + + Args: + alert: The volatility alert + """ + logger.info( + f"Volatility detected: {alert.market_question[:50]}... " + f"{alert.direction} {abs(alert.price_change_percent):.1%}" + ) + + # Analyze with LLM to check if price leads news + logger.info("Analyzing volatility for leading signal detection...") + signal = await self.volatility_analyzer.analyze_volatility(alert) + + if signal: + # Print the analysis report + report = self.volatility_analyzer.format_signal_report(signal) + print(report) + + if signal.is_leading_signal: + logger.info( + f"LEADING SIGNAL recorded: {alert.market_question[:50]}... " + f"Time advantage: {signal.time_advantage_minutes} minutes" + ) + else: + logger.info( + f"Signal analyzed: {signal.signal_type.value} " + f"(confidence: {signal.confidence:.1%})" + ) + + # Print stats + stats = self.volatility_analyzer.get_leading_signals_stats() + logger.info( + f"Dataset stats: {stats['total_signals']} total, " + f"{stats['leading_signals']} leading signals" + ) + + logger.separator() + + async def refresh_markets(self) -> None: + """Fetch and update the list of monitored markets.""" + if self.settings.full_market_scan: + await self._refresh_markets_tiered() + else: + await self._refresh_markets_legacy() + + async def _refresh_markets_tiered(self) -> None: + """Full-coverage tiered monitoring (mirrors options flow passive approach).""" + logger.info("Fetching ALL active markets for tiered monitoring...") + + tiers = self.market_fetcher.get_tiered_markets() + + # Also merge token launch markets into appropriate tiers + existing_ids = set() + for tier_markets in tiers.values(): + for tm in tier_markets: + existing_ids.add(tm.market.id) + + token_markets = self.market_fetcher.get_token_launch_markets() + token_added = 0 + for tm in token_markets: + if tm.market.id not in existing_ids: + # Assign to tier based on volume + vol = tm.volume_24hr + if vol >= self.settings.tier1_volume_min: + tiers["tier1"].append(tm) + elif vol >= self.settings.tier2_volume_min: + tiers["tier2"].append(tm) + else: + tiers["tier3"].append(tm) + existing_ids.add(tm.market.id) + token_added += 1 + + if token_added: + logger.info(f"Added {token_added} token launch markets to tiers") + + total = sum(len(v) for v in tiers.values()) + if total > 0: + self.trade_monitor.set_tiered_markets(tiers) + logger.info(f"Tiered monitoring active: {total} markets total") + else: + logger.error("Failed to fetch any markets") + + async def _refresh_markets_legacy(self) -> None: + """Original Top-N trending markets mode.""" + logger.info("Fetching trending markets...") + + trending_markets = self.market_fetcher.get_trending_markets( + limit=self.settings.trending_markets_limit + ) + + existing_ids = {tm.market.id for tm in trending_markets} + + token_markets = self.market_fetcher.get_token_launch_markets() + token_added = 0 + for tm in token_markets: + if tm.market.id not in existing_ids: + trending_markets.append(tm) + existing_ids.add(tm.market.id) + token_added += 1 + + if token_added: + logger.info( + f"Added {token_added} token launch markets " + f"(total: {len(trending_markets)})" + ) + + if trending_markets: + self.trade_monitor.set_monitored_markets(trending_markets) + logger.info(f"Now monitoring {len(trending_markets)} markets") + else: + logger.error("Failed to fetch trending markets") + + async def run(self) -> None: + """Run the main whale watcher loop.""" + self._running = True + + # Initial market fetch + await self.refresh_markets() + + # Log startup + logger.monitoring_started( + market_count=len(self.trade_monitor._monitored_markets), + min_trade_size=self.settings.min_trade_size_usd, + min_price=self.settings.min_price, + max_price=self.settings.max_price, + ) + + # Start monitoring tasks: + # 1. Trade monitor - RTDS WebSocket real-time trade stream + # 2. Market refresh - refreshes market metadata periodically + # 3. Daily briefing - generates daily summary at midnight + # 4. Resolution check - checks if markets with signals have resolved + # NOTE: Price volatility monitor is temporarily disabled + monitor_task = asyncio.create_task(self.trade_monitor.run()) + # price_monitor_task = asyncio.create_task(self.price_monitor.run()) + refresh_task = asyncio.create_task(self._refresh_loop()) + briefing_task = asyncio.create_task(self._briefing_loop()) + resolution_task = asyncio.create_task(self._resolution_check_loop()) + + try: + await asyncio.gather(monitor_task, refresh_task, briefing_task, resolution_task) + except asyncio.CancelledError: + logger.info("Shutting down...") + finally: + self.trade_monitor.stop() + self.price_monitor.stop() + await self.trade_monitor.close() + + async def _refresh_loop(self) -> None: + """Periodically refresh the market list.""" + while self._running: + await asyncio.sleep(self._refresh_interval) + if self._running: + await self.refresh_markets() + + def _briefing_already_sent(self, date: datetime) -> bool: + """Check if briefing for a date was already generated (file exists).""" + from src.services.daily_briefing import BRIEFINGS_DIR + date_str = date.strftime("%Y-%m-%d") + return (BRIEFINGS_DIR / f"briefing_{date_str}.md").exists() + + async def _briefing_loop(self) -> None: + """Generate daily briefing for previous day at 10:00 local time.""" + while self._running: + now = datetime.now() + today = now.date() + yesterday = now - timedelta(days=1) + + # Generate at 10:00 local time, skip if already sent (survives restart) + if now.hour == 10 and now.minute >= 0: + if self._last_briefing_date != today and not self._briefing_already_sent(yesterday): + try: + filepath = self.briefing_generator.generate_briefing() + if filepath: + logger.info(f"Daily briefing generated: {filepath}") + self._last_briefing_date = today + except Exception as e: + logger.error(f"Error generating daily briefing: {e}") + else: + self._last_briefing_date = today + + # Check every minute + await asyncio.sleep(60) + + async def _resolution_check_loop(self) -> None: + """Periodically check if markets with signals have resolved.""" + # Initial delay to let the system start up + await asyncio.sleep(60) + + while self._running: + try: + result = await self.resolution_tracker.check_all() + if result["resolved"] > 0: + logger.info( + f"Resolution check: {result['resolved']} markets resolved, " + f"{result['signals_updated']} signals updated" + ) + except Exception as e: + logger.error(f"Error in resolution check: {e}") + + await asyncio.sleep(self._resolution_check_interval) + + def stop(self) -> None: + """Stop the whale watcher.""" + self._running = False + self.trade_monitor.stop() + self.price_monitor.stop() + + +# Global instance for signal handling +_watcher: Optional[WhaleWatcher] = None + + +def signal_handler(signum, frame): + """Handle shutdown signals.""" + logger.info("Received shutdown signal...") + if _watcher: + _watcher.stop() + sys.exit(0) + + +@app.command() +def run( + debug: bool = typer.Option(False, "--debug", "-d", help="Enable debug logging"), +): + """Start the whale watcher bot.""" + global _watcher + + # Setup logging + setup_logging("DEBUG" if debug else "INFO") + + # Setup signal handlers + signal.signal(signal.SIGINT, signal_handler) + signal.signal(signal.SIGTERM, signal_handler) + + # Create and run watcher + _watcher = WhaleWatcher() + + try: + asyncio.run(_watcher.run()) + except KeyboardInterrupt: + logger.info("Interrupted by user") + finally: + logger.info("Whale watcher stopped") + + +@app.command() +def check_markets( + limit: int = typer.Option(10, "--limit", "-l", help="Number of markets to show"), +): + """Check current trending markets.""" + setup_logging("INFO") + + fetcher = MarketFetcher() + markets = fetcher.get_trending_markets(limit=limit) + + print(f"\n{'='*80}") + print(f"Top {len(markets)} Trending Markets by 24hr Volume") + print(f"{'='*80}\n") + + for tm in markets: + m = tm.market + prices = ", ".join( + [f"{o}: {p:.2%}" for o, p in zip(m.outcomes, m.outcome_prices)] + ) + print(f"#{tm.rank} | Vol24h: ${tm.volume_24hr:,.0f}") + print(f" Question: {m.question}") + print(f" Prices: {prices}") + print(f" ID: {m.id}") + print() + + +@app.command() +def test_analyze( + market_id: str = typer.Argument(..., help="Market ID to test analysis on"), +): + """Test LLM analysis on a specific market (simulates a whale trade).""" + setup_logging("INFO") + + fetcher = MarketFetcher() + market = fetcher.get_market_by_id(market_id) + + if not market: + print(f"Market {market_id} not found") + raise typer.Exit(1) + + # Create a simulated whale trade + from src.models.trade import TradeActivity, WhaleTrade + import time + + fake_activity = TradeActivity( + transaction_hash="test_" + str(int(time.time())), + timestamp=int(time.time()), + condition_id=market.condition_id or "", + asset=market.clob_token_ids[0] if market.clob_token_ids else "", + side="BUY", + size=50000.0, + usdc_size=25000.0, # Simulated $25k trade + price=0.45, # Simulated price + outcome=market.outcomes[0] if market.outcomes else "", + outcome_index=0, + title=market.question, + ) + + whale_trade = WhaleTrade( + id=f"test_{market_id}", + trade=fake_activity, + market_id=market.id, + market_question=market.question, + market_description=market.description, + market_outcomes=market.outcomes, + market_outcome_prices=market.outcome_prices, + ) + + print(f"\nSimulating whale trade analysis for:") + print(f" Market: {market.question}") + print(f" Trade: $25,000 BUY @ 0.45") + print(f"\nAnalyzing with LLM...\n") + + analyzer = LLMAnalyzer() + decision = asyncio.run(analyzer.analyze_whale_trade(whale_trade)) + + print(analyzer.format_decision_report(decision)) + print("\nFull Analysis:") + print("-" * 60) + print(decision.analysis) + + +@app.command() +def briefing( + date: str = typer.Option(None, "--date", "-d", help="Date in YYYY-MM-DD format (defaults to yesterday)"), + today: bool = typer.Option(False, "--today", "-t", help="Generate briefing for today instead of yesterday"), +): + """Generate daily briefing manually.""" + setup_logging("INFO") + + settings = get_settings() + generator = DailyBriefingGenerator(settings.db_path) + + if today: + filepath = generator.generate_today_briefing() + elif date: + try: + target_date = datetime.strptime(date, "%Y-%m-%d") + filepath = generator.generate_briefing(target_date) + except ValueError: + print(f"Invalid date format: {date}. Use YYYY-MM-DD") + raise typer.Exit(1) + else: + filepath = generator.generate_briefing() # Yesterday by default + + if filepath: + print(f"\nBriefing generated: {filepath}") + + # Print the content + with open(filepath, 'r', encoding='utf-8') as f: + print("\n" + "=" * 80) + print(f.read()) + else: + print("\nNo signals found for the specified date. No briefing generated.") + + +@app.command() +def migrate(): + """Migrate anomaly signals from JSON files to SQLite database.""" + setup_logging("INFO") + + settings = get_settings() + db = SignalDatabase(settings.db_path) + + json_dir = Path(__file__).parent.parent / "anomaly_signals" + print(f"Migrating signals from {json_dir} to {settings.db_path}") + + count = db.migrate_from_json(json_dir) + print(f"Migration complete: {count} signals migrated") + + # Show stats + stats = db.get_stats() + print(f"\nDatabase stats:") + print(f" Total signals: {stats['total_signals']}") + print(f" Resolved: {stats['resolved']}") + + +@app.command() +def dashboard( + port: int = typer.Option(8517, "--port", "-p", help="Port to run the dashboard on"), + host: str = typer.Option("127.0.0.1", "--host", "-h", help="Host to bind to"), +): + """Start the signal performance dashboard web server.""" + setup_logging("INFO") + + import asyncio + import uvicorn + from src.dashboard import app as dashboard_app + + print(f"Starting dashboard at http://{host}:{port}") + + config = uvicorn.Config(dashboard_app, host=host, port=port) + server = uvicorn.Server(config) + + loop = asyncio.new_event_loop() + asyncio.set_event_loop(loop) + loop.run_until_complete(server.serve()) + + +def main(): + """Entry point.""" + app() + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/src/models/__init__.py b/src/models/__init__.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..81dad60 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/models/__init__.py @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +"""Data models module.""" +from .market import Market, TrendingMarket +from .trade import WhaleTrade, TradeActivity +from .decision import LLMDecision, TradeRecommendation + +__all__ = [ + "Market", + "TrendingMarket", + "WhaleTrade", + "TradeActivity", + "LLMDecision", + "TradeRecommendation", +] diff --git a/src/models/anomaly_signal.py b/src/models/anomaly_signal.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a57235e --- /dev/null +++ b/src/models/anomaly_signal.py @@ -0,0 +1,94 @@ +"""Anomaly signal models for storing historical anomalous trades.""" +from datetime import datetime +from typing import Optional + +from pydantic import BaseModel, Field + +from src.models.trade import TraderRanking, TraderHistory + + +class AnomalySignal(BaseModel): + """ + Represents a stored anomaly signal for a market. + + This captures the raw trade and trader information for trades with medium + or higher information asymmetry score. The information_asymmetry_score is stored + for sorting/filtering purposes, but NOT shown to LLM - the model will + re-analyze all signals (historical + current) together without bias. + """ + + # Unique identifier + id: str = Field(default_factory=lambda: "") + + # Market identification + market_id: str + market_question: str + market_slug: Optional[str] = None + condition_id: Optional[str] = None + + # Trade information + transaction_hash: str + trade_timestamp: int # Unix timestamp of the trade + trade_side: str # BUY or SELL + trade_price: float + trade_size_usd: float + trade_outcome: str + + # Trader information + trader_wallet: Optional[str] = None + trader_ranking: Optional[TraderRanking] = None + trader_history: Optional[TraderHistory] = None + + # Information asymmetry score (for sorting/filtering only, NOT shown to LLM) + information_asymmetry_score: float = Field(default=0.0, ge=0.0, le=1.0) + + # LLM analysis results + reasoning: str = "" + insider_evidence: str = "" + + # Metadata + detected_at: datetime = Field(default_factory=datetime.utcnow) + + # Resolution tracking + market_resolved: bool = False + market_resolved_at: Optional[datetime] = None + resolved_outcome: Optional[str] = None + signal_correct: Optional[bool] = None + theoretical_roi: Optional[float] = None + + def to_context_string(self) -> str: + """ + Format this anomaly signal as a context string for LLM. + + Returns: + Formatted string describing this historical anomaly signal. + """ + trade_time = datetime.fromtimestamp(self.trade_timestamp).strftime('%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S') + + # Trader ranking info + trader_rank_str = "Unranked" + trader_pnl_str = "N/A" + trader_vol_str = "N/A" + if self.trader_ranking: + if self.trader_ranking.rank: + trader_rank_str = f"#{self.trader_ranking.rank}" + if self.trader_ranking.pnl is not None: + trader_pnl_str = f"${self.trader_ranking.pnl:,.2f}" + if self.trader_ranking.volume is not None: + trader_vol_str = f"${self.trader_ranking.volume:,.2f}" + + # Trader history info + trader_history_str = "" + if self.trader_history: + trader_history_str = f""" +- Recent Trades: {self.trader_history.total_trades} +- Total Volume: ${self.trader_history.total_volume:,.2f} +- Large Trades: {self.trader_history.large_trades_count}""" + + return f"""**Trade Time**: {trade_time} +**Direction**: {self.trade_side} +**Trade Size**: ${self.trade_size_usd:,.2f} USDC +**Trade Price**: {self.trade_price:.4f} +**Outcome**: {self.trade_outcome} +**Trader Wallet**: {self.trader_wallet or 'Unknown'} +**Trader Rank**: {trader_rank_str} (PnL: {trader_pnl_str}, Volume: {trader_vol_str}){trader_history_str}""" diff --git a/src/models/decision.py b/src/models/decision.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..24293d7 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/models/decision.py @@ -0,0 +1,59 @@ +"""LLM decision models.""" +from datetime import datetime +from typing import Optional +from enum import Enum + +from pydantic import BaseModel, Field + + +class TradeAction(str, Enum): + """Recommended trade action.""" + + BUY = "BUY" + SELL = "SELL" + HOLD = "HOLD" # Do not trade + + +class TraderCredibility(str, Enum): + """Trader credibility level based on leaderboard ranking.""" + + HIGH = "HIGH" # Top 100 + MEDIUM = "MEDIUM" # 100-500 + LOW = "LOW" # 500+ + UNKNOWN = "UNKNOWN" # Not on leaderboard + + +class TradeRecommendation(BaseModel): + """Trade recommendation from LLM.""" + + action: TradeAction + outcome: str # Which outcome to trade + confidence: float = Field(ge=0.0, le=1.0) # 0-1 confidence score + suggested_price: Optional[float] = None + suggested_size_percent: float = Field(default=0.1, ge=0.0, le=1.0) # % of balance + reasoning: str = "" + + # Information asymmetry assessment fields + information_asymmetry_score: float = Field(default=0.0, ge=0.0, le=1.0) # 0-1 score + trader_credibility: TraderCredibility = TraderCredibility.UNKNOWN + insider_evidence: str = "" # Evidence supporting information asymmetry assessment + + +class LLMDecision(BaseModel): + """Complete LLM decision for a whale trade.""" + + whale_trade_id: str + market_id: str + analysis: str # Full LLM analysis text + recommendation: TradeRecommendation + created_at: datetime = Field(default_factory=datetime.utcnow) + executed: bool = False + execution_result: Optional[str] = None + + @property + def should_trade(self) -> bool: + """Check if we should execute this trade.""" + return ( + self.recommendation.action != TradeAction.HOLD + and self.recommendation.confidence >= 0.6 + ) diff --git a/src/models/leading_signal.py b/src/models/leading_signal.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a5205a9 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/models/leading_signal.py @@ -0,0 +1,124 @@ +"""Data models for leading signal detection - price moves before news.""" +from dataclasses import dataclass, field +from datetime import datetime +from enum import Enum +from typing import List, Optional + + +class SignalType(str, Enum): + """Type of price volatility signal.""" + LEADING_SIGNAL = "LEADING_SIGNAL" # Price moved before news + NEWS_DRIVEN = "NEWS_DRIVEN" # Price reacted to news + SOCIAL_DRIVEN = "SOCIAL_DRIVEN" # Price driven by social media + SPECULATION = "SPECULATION" # No clear information source + + +@dataclass +class LeadingSignal: + """ + A case where price movement preceded public news. + + This is used to build a dataset of "price leads news" events + for research purposes. + """ + # Basic info + id: str + market_id: str + market_question: str + + # Price movement details + price_change_percent: float # e.g., 0.25 for 25% + direction: str # "UP" or "DOWN" + start_price: float + end_price: float + window_seconds: int + + # Timing + detected_at: str # ISO format timestamp + volatility_detected_at: str # When price volatility was detected + + # LLM analysis results + signal_type: SignalType + confidence: float # 0-1 + is_leading_signal: bool + + # News analysis + news_found: bool + earliest_news_time: Optional[str] = None # ISO format + key_news_headlines: List[str] = field(default_factory=list) + + # Social media analysis + earliest_social_time: Optional[str] = None # ISO format + key_social_posts: List[str] = field(default_factory=list) + + # Time advantage + time_advantage_minutes: int = 0 # How many minutes price led news + + # Analysis + reasoning: str = "" + potential_information_source: str = "" + + # Full LLM analysis text + full_analysis: str = "" + + def to_dict(self) -> dict: + """Convert to dictionary for JSON serialization.""" + return { + "id": self.id, + "market_id": self.market_id, + "market_question": self.market_question, + "price_change_percent": self.price_change_percent, + "direction": self.direction, + "start_price": self.start_price, + "end_price": self.end_price, + "window_seconds": self.window_seconds, + "detected_at": self.detected_at, + "volatility_detected_at": self.volatility_detected_at, + "signal_type": self.signal_type.value if isinstance(self.signal_type, SignalType) else self.signal_type, + "confidence": self.confidence, + "is_leading_signal": self.is_leading_signal, + "news_found": self.news_found, + "earliest_news_time": self.earliest_news_time, + "key_news_headlines": self.key_news_headlines, + "earliest_social_time": self.earliest_social_time, + "key_social_posts": self.key_social_posts, + "time_advantage_minutes": self.time_advantage_minutes, + "reasoning": self.reasoning, + "potential_information_source": self.potential_information_source, + "full_analysis": self.full_analysis, + } + + @classmethod + def from_dict(cls, data: dict) -> "LeadingSignal": + """Create from dictionary.""" + signal_type = data.get("signal_type", "SPECULATION") + if isinstance(signal_type, str): + try: + signal_type = SignalType(signal_type) + except ValueError: + signal_type = SignalType.SPECULATION + + return cls( + id=data["id"], + market_id=data["market_id"], + market_question=data["market_question"], + price_change_percent=data["price_change_percent"], + direction=data["direction"], + start_price=data["start_price"], + end_price=data["end_price"], + window_seconds=data["window_seconds"], + detected_at=data["detected_at"], + volatility_detected_at=data["volatility_detected_at"], + signal_type=signal_type, + confidence=data.get("confidence", 0.0), + is_leading_signal=data.get("is_leading_signal", False), + news_found=data.get("news_found", False), + earliest_news_time=data.get("earliest_news_time"), + key_news_headlines=data.get("key_news_headlines", []), + earliest_social_time=data.get("earliest_social_time"), + key_social_posts=data.get("key_social_posts", []), + time_advantage_minutes=data.get("time_advantage_minutes", 0), + reasoning=data.get("reasoning", ""), + potential_information_source=data.get("potential_information_source", ""), + full_analysis=data.get("full_analysis", ""), + ) diff --git a/src/models/market.py b/src/models/market.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8455a2d --- /dev/null +++ b/src/models/market.py @@ -0,0 +1,44 @@ +"""Market data models.""" +from datetime import datetime +from typing import Optional, List + +from pydantic import BaseModel, Field + + +class Market(BaseModel): + """Polymarket market data model.""" + + id: str + question: str + condition_id: Optional[str] = None + slug: Optional[str] = None + description: Optional[str] = None + end_date: Optional[str] = None + outcomes: List[str] = Field(default_factory=list) + outcome_prices: List[float] = Field(default_factory=list) + clob_token_ids: List[str] = Field(default_factory=list) + volume: float = 0.0 + volume_24hr: float = 0.0 + liquidity: float = 0.0 + active: bool = True + closed: bool = False + neg_risk: bool = False + + +class TrendingMarket(BaseModel): + """Trending market with additional metrics.""" + + market: Market + volume_24hr: float = 0.0 + liquidity: float = 0.0 + rank: int = 0 + fetched_at: datetime = Field(default_factory=datetime.utcnow) + + @property + def is_valid_for_monitoring(self) -> bool: + """Check if market is valid for whale monitoring.""" + return ( + self.market.active + and not self.market.closed + and len(self.market.clob_token_ids) > 0 + ) diff --git a/src/models/trade.py b/src/models/trade.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8e5e635 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/models/trade.py @@ -0,0 +1,240 @@ +"""Trade data models.""" +from datetime import datetime +from typing import Optional +from enum import Enum + +from pydantic import BaseModel, Field + + +class TradeSide(str, Enum): + """Trade side enum.""" + + BUY = "BUY" + SELL = "SELL" + + +class TradeActivity(BaseModel): + """Raw trade activity from Polymarket API.""" + + transaction_hash: str + timestamp: int + condition_id: str + asset: str + side: str + size: float # Token size + usdc_size: float # USD value + price: float + outcome: str + outcome_index: int + title: str + slug: Optional[str] = None + event_slug: Optional[str] = None + proxy_wallet: Optional[str] = None + name: Optional[str] = None + + +class TraderRanking(BaseModel): + """Trader ranking information from leaderboard.""" + + rank: Optional[int] = None # Position on leaderboard (None if not ranked) + pnl: Optional[float] = None # Profit/Loss + volume: Optional[float] = None # Trading volume + user_name: Optional[str] = None # Display name + profile_image: Optional[str] = None # Avatar URL + verified: bool = False # Verified badge + time_period: str = "ALL" # Time period for ranking + + +class TraderHistory(BaseModel): + """Trader's recent trading history summary.""" + + total_trades: int = 0 # Total number of recent trades + total_volume: float = 0.0 # Total trading volume in USDC + avg_trade_size: float = 0.0 # Average trade size + win_rate: Optional[float] = None # Win rate if calculable + recent_markets: list[str] = Field(default_factory=list) # Recent markets traded + large_trades_count: int = 0 # Number of trades >= $5000 + recent_trades: list[dict] = Field(default_factory=list) # Recent trade details + + +class EventPosition(BaseModel): + """Whale's position in a related market under the same event.""" + + market_question: str + condition_id: str = "" + outcome: str = "" # "Yes" or "No" + size: float = 0.0 # token size held + avg_price: float = 0.0 # average entry price + current_price: float = 0.0 # current market price + current_value: float = 0.0 # current position value in USD + initial_value: float = 0.0 # cost basis + pnl: float = 0.0 # realized + unrealized PnL + side_summary: str = "" # human readable summary + + +class MarketTopTrader(BaseModel): + """Top trader on a market (by net volume).""" + + wallet: str + name: Optional[str] = None + rank: Optional[int] = None + pnl: Optional[float] = None + net_volume_usd: float = 0.0 # positive = net buyer of Yes, negative = net seller + trade_count: int = 0 + + +class WhaleTrade(BaseModel): + """Whale trade that meets detection criteria.""" + + id: str = Field(default_factory=lambda: "") + trade: TradeActivity + market_id: str + market_question: str + market_description: Optional[str] = None + market_outcomes: list[str] = Field(default_factory=list) + market_outcome_prices: list[float] = Field(default_factory=list) + detected_at: datetime = Field(default_factory=datetime.utcnow) + processed: bool = False + llm_analyzed: bool = False + + # Trader ranking info + trader_ranking: Optional[TraderRanking] = None + # Trader history info + trader_history: Optional[TraderHistory] = None + # Whale's positions across the same event + whale_event_positions: list[EventPosition] = Field(default_factory=list) + # Top traders on this market (bulls and bears) + market_top_buyers: list[MarketTopTrader] = Field(default_factory=list) + market_top_sellers: list[MarketTopTrader] = Field(default_factory=list) + + @property + def is_whale_trade(self) -> bool: + """Check if this qualifies as a whale trade.""" + return self.trade.usdc_size >= 10000 + + @property + def is_valid_price_range(self) -> bool: + """Check if trade price is in valid range (0.2-0.8).""" + return 0.2 <= self.trade.price <= 0.8 + + def format_event_positions(self) -> str: + """Format whale's event positions for LLM context.""" + if self.whale_event_positions: + info = "### Whale's Positions in Other Markets Under the Same Event\n" + info += "(Used to identify hedging or correlated bets)\n\n" + for pos in self.whale_event_positions: + pnl_str = f"PnL ${pos.pnl:+,.0f}" if pos.pnl else "" + info += ( + f"- **{pos.market_question[:60]}{'...' if len(pos.market_question) > 60 else ''}**\n" + f" {pos.side_summary} | " + f"Current Value ${pos.current_value:,.0f} | Cost Basis ${pos.initial_value:,.0f} | " + f"{pnl_str}\n" + ) + return info + return "### Whale's Positions in Other Markets Under the Same Event\n- No other related positions (single-market event or no cross-market trades)\n" + + def format_top_traders(self) -> str: + """Format market top holders for LLM context.""" + info = "### Top 5 Bulls and Bears on This Market\n" + info += "(Reflects the stance and credentials of major participants)\n" + + if self.market_top_buyers: + info += "\n**Bulls (Holding Yes Token)**:\n" + for i, t in enumerate(self.market_top_buyers, 1): + rank_str = f"Rank #{t.rank}" if t.rank else "Unranked" + pnl_str = f"PnL ${t.pnl:,.0f}" if t.pnl is not None else "" + name_str = t.name or t.wallet[:10] + "..." + info += ( + f" {i}. **{name_str}** ({rank_str}{', ' + pnl_str if pnl_str else ''}) " + f"— Position Value ${t.net_volume_usd:,.0f}\n" + ) + else: + info += "\n**Bulls**: No significant positions\n" + + if self.market_top_sellers: + info += "\n**Bears (Holding No Token)**:\n" + for i, t in enumerate(self.market_top_sellers, 1): + rank_str = f"Rank #{t.rank}" if t.rank else "Unranked" + pnl_str = f"PnL ${t.pnl:,.0f}" if t.pnl is not None else "" + name_str = t.name or t.wallet[:10] + "..." + info += ( + f" {i}. **{name_str}** ({rank_str}{', ' + pnl_str if pnl_str else ''}) " + f"— Position Value ${t.net_volume_usd:,.0f}\n" + ) + else: + info += "\n**Bears**: No significant positions\n" + + return info + + def to_llm_context(self) -> str: + """Generate context string for LLM analysis.""" + # Format trader ranking info + trader_info = "" + if self.trader_ranking: + rank_str = f"#{self.trader_ranking.rank}" if self.trader_ranking.rank else "Unranked" + pnl_str = f"${self.trader_ranking.pnl:,.2f}" if self.trader_ranking.pnl else "N/A" + vol_str = f"${self.trader_ranking.volume:,.2f}" if self.trader_ranking.volume else "N/A" + verified_str = "Verified" if self.trader_ranking.verified else "Unverified" + trader_info = f""" +### Trader Ranking (PnL Leaderboard) +- **Rank**: {rank_str} (Period: {self.trader_ranking.time_period}) +- **Cumulative PnL**: {pnl_str} +- **Volume**: {vol_str} +- **Username**: {self.trader_ranking.user_name or 'Anonymous'} +- **Verification**: {verified_str} +""" + else: + trader_info = """ +### Trader Ranking +- This trader is not on the PnL leaderboard (possibly a new user or small trader) +""" + + # Format trader history info + history_info = "" + if self.trader_history: + history_info = f""" +### Trader History +- **Recent Trades**: {self.trader_history.total_trades} +- **Recent Volume**: ${self.trader_history.total_volume:,.2f} USDC +- **Avg Trade Size**: ${self.trader_history.avg_trade_size:,.2f} USDC +- **Large Trades** (>=$5000): {self.trader_history.large_trades_count} +- **Active Markets**: {', '.join(self.trader_history.recent_markets[:5]) if self.trader_history.recent_markets else 'N/A'} +""" + # Add recent large trades details + if self.trader_history.recent_trades: + history_info += "\n**Recent Large Trade Details**:\n" + for i, t in enumerate(self.trader_history.recent_trades[:5], 1): + history_info += f" {i}. {t.get('side', 'N/A')} ${t.get('usdc_size', 0):,.2f} @ {t.get('price', 0):.4f} - {t.get('title', 'N/A')[:40]}...\n" + else: + history_info = """ +### Trader History +- Unable to retrieve this trader's trading history +""" + + return f""" +## Anomalous Trade Detection + +### Trade Information +- Direction: BUY {self.trade.outcome} Token ({'Bullish — expects the event to occur' if self.trade.outcome == 'Yes' else 'Bearish — expects the event will not occur'}) +- Trade Size: ${self.trade.usdc_size:,.2f} USDC +- Entry Price: {self.trade.price:.4f} (Odds ~{1/self.trade.price:.1f}x) +- Trade Time: {datetime.fromtimestamp(self.trade.timestamp).strftime('%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S')} +- Trader Wallet: {self.trade.proxy_wallet or 'Unknown'} +{trader_info}{history_info} +{self.format_event_positions()} + +{self.format_top_traders()} + +### Market Information +- Market Question: {self.market_question} +- Market Description: {self.market_description or 'N/A'} +- Possible Outcomes: {', '.join(self.market_outcomes)} +- Current Prices: {', '.join([f'{o}: {p:.4f}' for o, p in zip(self.market_outcomes, self.market_outcome_prices)])} + +### Key Analysis Points +1. This large trade (${self.trade.usdc_size:,.2f}) is **BUY {self.trade.outcome} Token**, {'indicating the trader is Bullish and expects the event to occur' if self.trade.outcome == 'Yes' else 'indicating the trader is Bearish and expects the event will not occur'} +2. Entry price {self.trade.price:.4f}, odds ~{1/self.trade.price:.1f}x +3. **Trader ranking and history are key references for assessing information asymmetry credibility** +4. **Review the whale's other positions under the same event** — opposite positions may indicate a hedging strategy +5. **Check the top bulls and bears on this market** — which side has the elite traders +""" diff --git a/src/prompts/__init__.py b/src/prompts/__init__.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b11efab --- /dev/null +++ b/src/prompts/__init__.py @@ -0,0 +1,4 @@ +"""Prompts module.""" +from .whale_analyzer import WhaleAnalyzerPrompts + +__all__ = ["WhaleAnalyzerPrompts"] diff --git a/src/prompts/volatility_analyzer.py b/src/prompts/volatility_analyzer.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..bb22bae --- /dev/null +++ b/src/prompts/volatility_analyzer.py @@ -0,0 +1,222 @@ +"""Prompts for price volatility analysis - detecting leading signals.""" +from datetime import datetime, timezone + + +class VolatilityAnalyzerPrompts: + """Prompts for LLM price volatility analysis.""" + + @staticmethod + def system_prompt() -> str: + """Get the system prompt for volatility analysis.""" + current_utc = datetime.now(timezone.utc).strftime('%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S UTC') + + return f"""You are a professional prediction market analyst specializing in the "price leads news" phenomenon. + +**Current real time**: {current_utc} + +**Your core task**: Determine whether a detected price anomaly "leads public news" — i.e., the price movement occurred before related news was publicly reported. + +## Background + +In prediction markets, the following pattern sometimes occurs: +1. Market price suddenly moves sharply +2. But mainstream news media has not yet reported the related event +3. Subsequently (hours or days later), the related news becomes public + +This "price leads news" phenomenon may indicate: +- Informed participants traded on information before it became public +- Market participants obtained information through social media, unofficial channels, etc. +- Pure market speculation or technical volatility + +## Your Workflow + +### Step 1: Analyze provided Web search results +- Analyze the latest news related to the market topic +- Pay special attention to news publication timestamps +- Determine if any major news can explain this price movement + +### Step 2: Analyze Twitter social media data +- Analyze provided Twitter search results +- Check for early social media discussions +- Note timing of KOL and insider posts + +### Step 3: Classify the price movement +Based on search results, classify the volatility as one of: + +1. **LEADING_SIGNAL**: Price movement clearly preceded public news + - No news found that explains the movement + - Or news publication time is significantly later than the price movement + - This is the type we care about most! + +2. **NEWS_DRIVEN**: Price movement is a reaction to published news + - Clear related news found + - News publication time is before or close to the price movement time + +3. **SOCIAL_DRIVEN**: Price movement driven by social media discussion + - Significant Twitter discussion, but mainstream media has not yet reported + - Between leading signal and news-driven + +4. **SPECULATION**: No clear information source for the movement + - No related news or discussions found + - Likely pure market speculation + +**Key principles**: +- Carefully analyze the Web search results provided +- Carefully analyze the Twitter search results +- Pay special attention to timestamps of news and discussions +- If it's a LEADING_SIGNAL, document evidence in detail""" + + @staticmethod + def analyze_volatility( + market_question: str, + price_change_percent: float, + direction: str, + start_price: float, + end_price: float, + window_seconds: int, + detected_at: str, + twitter_context: str = "", + web_search_context: str = "", + ) -> str: + """ + Get the prompt for analyzing a price volatility event. + + Args: + market_question: The market question + price_change_percent: Price change as decimal (e.g., 0.25 for 25%) + direction: "UP" or "DOWN" + start_price: Starting price + end_price: Ending price + window_seconds: Time window in seconds + detected_at: Detection timestamp + twitter_context: Twitter search results + web_search_context: Web search results from Tavily + + Returns: + Complete prompt for LLM + """ + direction_label = "UP" if direction == "UP" else "DOWN" + window_minutes = window_seconds // 60 + + web_search_section = "" + if web_search_context: + web_search_section = f""" +--- + +## Web Search Results (News & Analysis) + +The following are recent web search results related to this market. Please carefully analyze publication timestamps and content: + +{web_search_context} + +--- +""" + + twitter_section = "" + if twitter_context: + twitter_section = f""" +--- + +## Twitter Social Media Search Results + +The following are real-time Twitter discussions related to this market. Please carefully analyze timestamps and content: + +{twitter_context} + +--- +""" + + return f"""## Anomalous Price Movement Detection Report + +### Movement Details +- **Market question**: {market_question} +- **Price change**: {direction_label} {abs(price_change_percent):.1%} +- **Start price**: {start_price:.2%} +- **End price**: {end_price:.2%} +- **Time window**: Within {window_minutes} minutes +- **Detection time**: {detected_at} + +{web_search_section}{twitter_section} + +--- + +# Price Movement Verification Task + +A significant anomalous price movement has been detected. Please determine whether this is a "price leads news" signal. + +--- + +## Step 1: Web Search Results Analysis (mandatory!) + +**Please carefully analyze the Web search results provided above, focusing on:** + +1. Latest news related to "{market_question}" (focus on the past 24 hours) +2. Events or announcements that may have triggered this price movement +3. Publication timestamp of each news item + +**Web search results summary**: +(Please list key news from search results here, MUST include publication times) + +--- + +## Step 2: Twitter Social Media Analysis + +**Analyze the Twitter search results provided above:** + +1. When was the earliest related discussion? +2. What were the main topics discussed? +3. Were there any KOL or insider posts? +4. Did social media discussion precede mainstream news coverage? + +**Twitter analysis summary**: +(Please summarize key information and timeline from Twitter here) + +--- + +## Step 3: Timeline Comparison Analysis + +**Key question**: Did the price movement occur before or after news became public? + +- Price movement detection time: {detected_at} +- Earliest related news publication time found: [please fill in] +- Earliest social media discussion time found: [please fill in] + +**Timeline conclusion**: +(Did the price movement lead or lag the news?) + +--- + +## Step 4: Final Determination + +Based on the above analysis, provide your judgment in the following JSON format: + +```json +{{ + "signal_type": "LEADING_SIGNAL/NEWS_DRIVEN/SOCIAL_DRIVEN/SPECULATION", + "confidence": 0.0-1.0, + "is_leading_signal": true/false, + "news_found": true/false, + "earliest_news_time": "earliest related news publication time found, format YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM UTC, or null if none", + "earliest_social_time": "earliest social media discussion time found, format YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM UTC, or null if none", + "time_advantage_minutes": minutes price led news (if leading signal), otherwise 0, + "key_news_headlines": ["related news headline 1", "related news headline 2"], + "key_social_posts": ["key social media post summary 1", "key social media post summary 2"], + "reasoning": "brief explanation of your judgment basis", + "potential_information_source": "hypothesized information source (e.g., insider, social media leak, advance official notice, etc.)" +}} +``` + +**Judgment criteria**: +- **LEADING_SIGNAL**: At the time of price movement, web search finds no related news, or news publication time is significantly later than price movement (>=30 minutes) +- **NEWS_DRIVEN**: Clear related news found, with publication time before or close to the price movement time +- **SOCIAL_DRIVEN**: Early Twitter discussion found, but mainstream media has not yet reported +- **SPECULATION**: Neither news nor social discussion found, likely pure speculation + +**Special notes**: +- When is_leading_signal is true, detailed evidence must be provided +- time_advantage_minutes represents the time advantage of price over news +- This data will be used to build a "price leads news" research dataset + +--- + +Disclaimer: This analysis is for research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.""" diff --git a/src/prompts/whale_analyzer.py b/src/prompts/whale_analyzer.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..df33a26 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/prompts/whale_analyzer.py @@ -0,0 +1,315 @@ +"""Prompts for whale trade analysis.""" +from datetime import datetime, timezone +from typing import List + + +class WhaleAnalyzerPrompts: + """Prompts for LLM whale trade analysis.""" + + @staticmethod + def system_prompt() -> str: + """System prompt for whale trade analysis with tool-use.""" + current_utc = datetime.now(timezone.utc).strftime('%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S UTC') + + return f"""You are a professional prediction market analyst and information asymmetry detection expert, specializing in analyzing large anomalous trades on Polymarket. + +**Current real time**: {current_utc} + +## Your Core Task + +Verify whether a flagged anomalous trade exhibits information asymmetry — i.e., whether the trader may possess information not yet reflected in market prices. + +## Data You Will Receive + +For each analysis task, you will receive the following structured data (in the user message): + +1. **Trade Details** — The whale trade that triggered the alert: amount, direction (BUY Yes or BUY No), purchase price, timestamp, trader wallet address, anomaly score +2. **Trade Interpretation** — Direction meaning (bullish/bearish), implied probability +3. **Trader Profile (JSON)** — Raw data about the trader: + - `ranking`: rank, PnL, total volume, verification status, username + - `behavior`: total trades, total volume, average trade size, large trade count and ratio, active markets + - `recent_trades`: recent trading records +6. **Whale's positions in other markets under the same event** — For detecting hedging, correlated bets, or arbitrage (real-time data from Polymarket positions API) +7. **Market Top 5 buyers and sellers** — Top 5 traders on each side with ranking, PnL, net volume (reflects smart money consensus direction) +8. **Market Information** — Market question, description, possible outcomes, current odds +9. **Historical anomaly signals** (if any) — Past anomalous trade signals detected on this market, for trend comparison + +**You must synthesize ALL of the above data in your analysis — do not neglect any dimension.** + +## Available Tools + +You can call the following tools to obtain real-time information (all results are real live data): + +- **search_web**: Search web news and analysis articles. Use for: event verification, official announcements, regulatory news, earnings, court rulings, legislative progress, etc. +- **search_twitter**: Search Twitter/X social media. Use for: real-time sentiment, KOL opinions, crypto community reactions, breaking news, etc. +- **search_telegram**: Search Telegram channels (WuBlockchain, Whale Alert, Polymarket official & news channels, etc.). Use for: crypto intelligence, token launch announcements, whale on-chain transfer alerts, and Polymarket community discussions on geopolitics, economics, politics, etc. +- **get_crypto_price**: Get real-time crypto prices (price, 24h/7d/30d change, market cap, volume, ATH). Use for: markets involving crypto price targets (e.g., "Will BTC reach $100k"). +- **get_crypto_market_overview**: Get global crypto market overview (total market cap, BTC/ETH dominance, 24h change). Use for: gauging overall crypto sentiment. +- **get_economic_data**: Get FRED macroeconomic data. Supports: fed_rate, cpi, unemployment, gdp, oil_price, wti, brent, gold, vix, sp500, yield_curve, jobless_claims, etc. Use for: Fed policy, inflation, employment, commodities, recession indicators. +- **get_stock_price**: Get stock/ETF real-time snapshot (price, change, volume). Supports: AAPL, TSLA, GS, SPY, QQQ, GLD, USO, etc. Use for: markets involving specific companies or sectors. +- **get_stock_news**: Get latest stock/company news. Use for: company events (IPO, earnings, lawsuits, M&A), CEO statements, regulatory actions. +- **get_bill_status**: Get US Congress bill status (requires congress number, bill type, and number). Use for: markets involving specific legislation (e.g., TikTok ban, crypto regulation, immigration bills). +- **get_recent_legislation**: Get recently updated US Congress bills. Use for: current legislative dynamics, political markets. +- **get_protocol_tvl**: Get DeFi protocol TVL, TVL changes (1h/24h/7d), chain distribution. Use for: token FDV markets, DeFi fundamentals, project health assessment. +- **get_token_unlocks**: Get token unlock/vesting schedules. Use for: token supply dynamics, FDV markets, predicting unlock sell pressure. +- **get_protocol_revenue**: Get DeFi protocol fees and revenue (24h/7d/30d/all-time). Use for: protocol fundamentals, comparing revenue to FDV. +- **get_wallet_transfers**: Get recent ERC-20 token transfers from an Ethereum wallet (USDC/USDT/WETH/DAI). Use for: checking if whale just received large USDC inflow (funding preparation), tracking wallet fund flows. +- **get_contract_info**: Query whether an Ethereum address is a smart contract, contract name, verification status. Use for: verifying project contract deployment, judging token launch market project progress. + +**Tool usage principles**: +- Based on market type and trade characteristics, decide which tools to call +- You may call one, multiple, or zero tools +- **You have a maximum of 3 tool-call rounds. Budget wisely: use Round 1 for broad search (web + twitter + telegram in parallel), Round 2 for targeted follow-up if needed, then produce your final analysis. Do NOT use all rounds just searching — reserve capacity for your final answer.** +- Do NOT call the same tool (e.g. search_web) more than 3 times total across all rounds +- If the first search already covers the topic well, stop searching and analyze + +**Tool collaboration and cross-verification (important)**: +- Information from different tools should be **cross-verified** — but 2-3 sources are sufficient, do not over-search +- When multiple tools return **contradictory results**, explicitly note the discrepancy and lower confidence +- Prefer breadth (web + twitter + domain-specific tool) over depth (web × 8 with slightly different keywords) + +## Polymarket Trading Mechanics + +Trade data represents taker's actual buy actions (SELL/close trades are filtered out), **no normalization applied**: +- **BUY Yes** = Buy Yes Token = **Bullish** (believes event will occur) +- **BUY No** = Buy No Token = **Bearish** (believes event will not occur) +- **Price** is taker's actual purchase price (0.0~1.0) — lower price means higher odds and more uncertainty + - Example: BUY Yes @ 0.06 = pay $0.06 per share, receive $1 if event occurs (~17x odds) + - Example: BUY No @ 0.30 = pay $0.30 per share, receive $1 if event doesn't occur (~3.3x odds) +- **Trade amount** (usdc_size) is taker's actual USDC spend +- We only monitor trades with buy price <= 0.7 (high-price buys on near-certain outcomes have no signal value) + +## Analysis Framework + +### Trader Credibility +Trader credibility (HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW/UNKNOWN) should be assessed comprehensively using all available raw data — do not rely on a single metric. Consider: +- **Ranking**: Lower rank number = more experienced participant. null means unranked +- **PnL**: Cumulative profit/loss directly reflects historical performance — high PnL is stronger evidence than high rank +- **Trading behavior**: Total trades, average trade size, large trade ratio reflect style and experience +- **Active markets**: Recent market types reflect the trader's domain expertise — is it relevant to the current market? +- **Recent trades**: Specific buy/sell directions, amounts, and prices help identify the trader's strategy pattern + +### Information Asymmetry Scoring Criteria (must be strictly followed) + +**"Information asymmetry" has a very strict definition**: The trader must possess information not yet reflected in the market — non-public, specific information (e.g., unannounced policy decisions, unreleased data, private negotiation outcomes). Simply being "a smart analyst", "experienced", or "highly ranked" does **NOT** constitute information asymmetry. + +**Score calibration benchmark (most trades should fall between 0.2-0.5)**: + +- **0.8-1.0 (Very High)**: Only when **clear evidence of non-public information** is found. Example: trade timing precisely hours before a major announcement that was completely unpredictable; or trader has known information channels (e.g., identified as a political insider). **Very few trades should reach this level.** +- **0.6-0.8 (High)**: High-ranked trader + trade timing highly aligned with an upcoming unpriced event + search reveals specific information not yet reflected in market. Multiple strong pieces of evidence must be present simultaneously. +- **0.4-0.6 (Medium)**: High-ranked trader's large trade + some information support but uncertainty about whether it's non-public. This is where **most moderately suspicious trades** should fall. +- **0.2-0.4 (Low)**: Some anomalous features but lacking information support, or trader ranking is average. **Most ordinary whale trades** should be in this range. +- **0.0-0.2 (Very Low)**: Unranked trader's routine trade, no anomalous signals. + +**Common overestimation mistakes (must avoid)**: +- Do NOT give 0.7+ just because the trader ranks high (high-ranked traders make many trades daily, the vast majority show no information asymmetry) +- Do NOT give 0.6+ just because the trade amount is large (large trades are routine for whales) +- Do NOT give high scores to short-term price prediction markets (e.g., "Bitcoin Up or Down 5 minutes") — these markets almost never involve non-public information +- Do NOT give high scores to near-expiry markets or trades with prices near 0 or 1 — this usually reflects normal market consensus +- Do NOT give high scores when all found information is public news (public information ≠ non-public information) +- Do NOT easily give high scores to large geopolitical/macro markets (e.g., Iran situation, presidential impeachment) — these markets have many participants and complex information sources; whale trades mostly reflect public analysis rather than non-public information + +**High-value scenarios to focus on**: +- **Niche markets** (daily volume < $500k) with large trades — fewer participants, larger information gap, whale signals more meaningful +- **New projects/token launches** (FDV, TGE, public sale) — project teams and early investors may have non-public information +- **Specific verifiable events** (will someone do something, will a company announce a decision) — small circle of insiders, clear information +- **Quiet markets suddenly attracting high-ranked traders with large trades** — anomalous behavior is the strongest signal + +## Event-Related Position Analysis + +Trade data includes the whale's positions in other markets under the same Event. You must analyze: +- **Hedge detection**: If the whale holds opposing positions in different markets under the same event, it may be a hedging strategy rather than a directional bet — lower information asymmetry score +- **Correlated bets**: If the whale holds same-direction positions across multiple markets under the same event (e.g., bullish on multiple related markets), this strengthens the signal +- **Arbitrage**: Price inconsistencies across markets under the same event may indicate arbitrage — this is not an information asymmetry signal + +## Market Long/Short Analysis + +Trade data includes the market's Top 5 buyers and sellers with rankings and positions. Analyze: +- **Smart money consensus**: If multiple high-ranked, high-PnL traders are on the same side, the signal is stronger +- **Counterparty analysis**: If the whale's counterparties are all low-ranked traders, the signal is more reliable; if counterparties include high-ranked traders, more caution is needed +- **Market concentration**: If one side's positions are heavily concentrated in a few large holders, the market may be more prone to sharp volatility + +## Key Principles +- Proactively use tools to gather latest information for trade verification +- When searches yield no supporting information, information asymmetry likelihood should decrease +- When confidence is low, recommend HOLD +- Whales can also be wrong or have other motivations (hedging, probing, etc.) +- Synthesize event-related positions and market long/short dynamics for comprehensive judgment +- **Time judgment**: Do NOT guess unknown event times (e.g., match start times). If you need to determine whether a trade occurred before or after an event, you MUST use tools to confirm the event time — never speculate""" + + @staticmethod + def analyze_whale_trade(trade_context: str, historical_context: str = "") -> str: + """ + Build the user prompt for analyzing a whale trade. + + Args: + trade_context: Formatted trade context from AnomalyDetector + historical_context: Historical anomaly signals (optional) + + Returns: + Complete user prompt + """ + history_section = "" + if historical_context: + history_section = f""" +--- + +{historical_context} + +--- +""" + + return f"""{trade_context} +{history_section} + +--- + +# Whale Trade Verification Task + +## Step 0: Pre-screening (must complete first) + +Before any search or analysis, determine whether this signal warrants a full report. + +**Screening criteria:** +- **Prioritize (low threshold)**: Niche markets, crypto/token launch related (FDV, TGE, public sale, protocol governance), specific verifiable events, quiet markets with sudden large trades +- **Higher threshold (need especially strong signals)**: Large geopolitical markets (war, sanctions, diplomacy), macro/Fed rate/election markets with many participants +- **Skip directly**: Sports/game results, markets with price near 0 or 1 (>=0.95 or <=0.05) + +Assess holistically based on trade amount, trader rank and profile, anomaly score, and market type. + +**If deemed not worth analyzing, output the following JSON and stop — do not proceed to subsequent steps:** +```json +{{{{"action": "SKIP", "reason": "one-line reason"}}}} +``` + +**If deemed worth analyzing, continue with the following steps.** + +--- + +## Complete the following steps: + +### 1. Information Gathering +Based on market topic, use available tools to search for relevant information: +- Latest news and developments on the market topic +- Social media discussions and sentiment +- Any events that may have triggered this trade + +### 2. Trade Signal Analysis +- Trader ranking and historical P&L performance +- Structured profile (ranking, PnL, trading behavior data, recent trades) +- Whether the trade timing is anomalous + +### 3. Event-Related Position Analysis +- Does the whale have positions in other markets under the same event? +- If opposing positions exist (e.g., holding both Yes and No, or hedging in related markets), it may be a hedge/arbitrage strategy — lower information asymmetry score +- If same-direction bets across multiple related markets, the signal is strengthened + +### 4. Market Long/Short Analysis +- Who are the Top 5 on each side? What are their rankings? +- Which side has the concentration of high-ranked, high-PnL traders? This represents smart money consensus +- What is the quality of the whale's counterparties? If counterparties also include high-ranked traders, be more cautious + +### 5. Information Gap Analysis +- Does the information found support the trade's direction? +- Has this information been fully priced by the market? +- If an information gap exists, how large is it? + +### 6. Historical Signal Comparison (if available) +- Are historical signals directionally consistent with the current signal? +- Were high-ranked traders involved? +- What are the trends in trade amounts and prices? + +### 7. Information Asymmetry Assessment + +Assess the trader's information advantage relative to public information. Core logic: +- I_public = the set of public information you can obtain through all tools +- I_trader = the set of information the trader used to make this trade decision +- Information asymmetry = I_trader - I_public +- If public information can fully explain the trade behavior → low score +- If public information cannot explain the trade behavior (trader may have additional sources, domain expertise, data speed advantage) → high score + +Output JSON assessment: + +```json +{{ + "information_asymmetry_score": 0.0-1.0, + "trader_credibility": "HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW/UNKNOWN", + "reasoning": "brief reasoning process", + "insider_evidence": "key evidence" +}} +``` + +Notes: +- information_asymmetry_score must be strictly calibrated: most trades should be 0.2-0.5, only give 0.7+ when clear evidence of information advantage is found +- Information advantage includes but is not limited to: domain expertise, data source speed difference, non-public channels, precise timing +- Trader ranking or trade size alone should NOT push information_asymmetry_score above 0.5 +- Ensure valid JSON output""" + + @staticmethod + def superforecaster_prompt(question: str, description: str, outcomes: List[str]) -> str: + """Superforecaster-style analysis prompt.""" + outcomes_str = ", ".join(outcomes) + + return f"""As a superforecaster, analyze the following prediction market: + +**Question**: {question} + +**Description**: {description} + +**Possible Outcomes**: {outcomes_str} + +Please use the following systematic approach: + +### 1. Problem Decomposition +- Break the question into smaller, more manageable parts +- Identify key components needed to answer the question + +### 2. Information Gathering +- Consider relevant quantitative data and qualitative insights +- Think about the latest relevant news and expert analysis + +### 3. Base Rate +- Use statistical baselines or historical averages as starting points +- Compare the current situation with similar historical events + +### 4. Factor Assessment +- List factors that may influence the outcome +- Assess each factor's impact, considering both positive and negative factors +- Weigh these factors using evidence + +### 5. Probabilistic Thinking +- Express predictions as probabilities, not certainties +- Assign likelihoods to different outcomes +- Acknowledge uncertainty + +Please provide probability estimates for each outcome, ensuring all probabilities sum to 100%. + +Output format: +```json +{{ + "analysis": "your detailed analysis", + "probabilities": {{ + "outcome1": 0.XX, + "outcome2": 0.XX + }}, + "confidence_level": "low/medium/high", + "key_factors": ["factor1", "factor2", "factor3"] +}} +```""" + + @staticmethod + def quick_decision_prompt(trade_summary: str) -> str: + """Quick decision prompt for time-sensitive situations.""" + return f"""Quickly analyze the following whale trade and provide a recommendation: + +{trade_summary} + +Output your decision in JSON format: +```json +{{ + "action": "BUY/SELL/HOLD", + "outcome": "the outcome to trade on", + "confidence": 0.0-1.0, + "reasoning": "one-line reason" +}} +```""" diff --git a/src/services/__init__.py b/src/services/__init__.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3bc2094 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/services/__init__.py @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +"""Services module.""" +from .market_fetcher import MarketFetcher +from .trade_monitor import TradeMonitor +from .anomaly_detector import AnomalyDetector +from .llm_analyzer import LLMAnalyzer +from .twitter_search import TwitterSearchService + +__all__ = [ + "MarketFetcher", + "TradeMonitor", + "AnomalyDetector", + "LLMAnalyzer", + "TwitterSearchService", +] diff --git a/src/services/anomaly_detector.py b/src/services/anomaly_detector.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3c3513c --- /dev/null +++ b/src/services/anomaly_detector.py @@ -0,0 +1,391 @@ +""" +Anomaly detection service — confidence scoring for whale trades. + +Mirrors the options flow confidence scoring from llm-trading-agent: + Base confidence: 0.50 + + Premium-to-threshold ratio: +0.20 (sqrt-scaled by market liquidity) + + Signal cleanliness (ask ratio): +0.10 + + Volume/OI equivalent (depth ratio): +0.10 + + Alert rule / cluster tier: +0.10 + +Total max = 1.0. Pre-filter threshold = 0.60 (matches options flow pipeline). +""" +import logging +import math +import time +from collections import defaultdict, deque +from datetime import datetime +from typing import Dict, List, Optional, Tuple + +from src.config import get_settings +from src.models.trade import WhaleTrade, TradeActivity, TraderHistory +from src.models.market import Market +from src.services.trader_profiler import TraderProfiler + +logger = logging.getLogger(__name__) + + +class AnomalyDetector: + """ + Confidence scoring for whale trades, mirroring options flow pipeline. + + 5-factor scoring (same structure as OptionsFlowSignalProvider._calculate_confidence): + 1. Base confidence: 0.50 + 2. Premium-to-threshold ratio: +0.20 (trade_size vs dynamic threshold) + 3. Signal cleanliness: +0.10 (conviction / price displacement) + 4. Depth ratio: +0.10 (trade_size vs market liquidity, like Volume/OI) + 5. Cluster tier: +0.10 (repeated same-direction trades, like alert_rule) + """ + + # Cluster detection + _CLUSTER_WINDOW_SECONDS = 300 # 5 minutes + _CLUSTER_MIN_COUNT = 3 + + def __init__(self): + self.settings = get_settings() + self.trader_profiler = TraderProfiler() + self._recent_trades: Dict[str, deque] = defaultdict( + lambda: deque(maxlen=50) + ) + + # ================================================================ + # Core scoring — mirrors OptionsFlowSignalProvider._calculate_confidence + # ================================================================ + + def get_anomaly_score( + self, + activity: TradeActivity, + market: Optional[Market] = None, + trader_history: Optional[TraderHistory] = None, + market_id: str = "", + ) -> Tuple[float, dict]: + """ + Calculate confidence score using options-flow-style 5-factor model. + + Returns: + (total_score, breakdown_dict) — total in [0.0, 1.0]. + """ + breakdown = {} + + # --- 1. Base confidence: 0.50 --- + breakdown["base"] = 0.50 + + # --- 2. Premium-to-threshold ratio: +0.20 max --- + # Mirrors _premium_ratio_bonus: min(0.20, (sqrt(ratio) - 1) * 0.20) + # where ratio = trade_size / dynamic_threshold + # dynamic_threshold = base_size * sqrt(market_volume / baseline_volume) + breakdown["premium_ratio"] = self._premium_ratio_bonus(activity, market) + + # --- 3. Signal cleanliness (conviction): +0.10 max --- + # Mirrors _ask_ratio_bonus: measures taker aggressiveness. + # In options: ASK-side ratio > 0.8 = full bonus. + # In Polymarket: price displacement from market mid = conviction. + breakdown["signal_clean"] = self._signal_cleanliness_bonus(activity, market) + + # --- 4. Depth ratio (like Volume/OI): +0.10 max --- + # Mirrors _volume_oi_bonus: trade_size / market_liquidity. + # High ratio = new significant positioning. + breakdown["depth_ratio"] = self._depth_ratio_bonus(activity, market) + + # --- 5. Cluster tier (like alert_rule): +0.10 max --- + # Mirrors _alert_rule_bonus: repeated same-direction activity. + # In options: RepeatedHitsAscendingFill = 0.10, RepeatedHits = 0.07. + # In Polymarket: multiple same-direction trades in 5-min window. + breakdown["cluster_tier"] = self._cluster_tier_bonus(activity, market_id) + + # --- Total --- + total = sum(breakdown.values()) + total = min(1.0, max(0.0, total)) + + return total, breakdown + + @staticmethod + def _premium_ratio_bonus(activity: TradeActivity, market: Optional[Market]) -> float: + """ + Trade size vs dynamic threshold, sqrt-scaled. + + Mirrors OptionsFlowSignalProvider._premium_ratio_bonus: + threshold = 100K * sqrt(market_cap / 40B) + bonus = min(0.20, (sqrt(premium / threshold) - 1) * 0.20) + + Polymarket mapping: + threshold = base_size * sqrt(market_volume / baseline_volume) + base_size = $5,000, baseline_volume = $1,000,000 + """ + max_bonus = 0.20 + trade_size = activity.usdc_size + + if trade_size <= 0: + return 0.0 + + # Dynamic threshold based on market volume (like market-cap scaling) + base_size = 10_000.0 + baseline_volume = 1_000_000.0 + + if market and market.volume > 0: + threshold = base_size * math.sqrt(market.volume / baseline_volume) + threshold = max(5_000.0, threshold) # floor $5K + else: + threshold = base_size + + ratio = trade_size / threshold + if ratio <= 1.0: + return 0.0 + + bonus = (math.sqrt(ratio) - 1) * max_bonus + return min(max_bonus, max(0.0, bonus)) + + @staticmethod + def _signal_cleanliness_bonus(activity: TradeActivity, market: Optional[Market]) -> float: + """ + Taker conviction / price displacement from market mid. + + Mirrors _ask_ratio_bonus logic: + ASK ratio > 0.8 → 0.10 (full), > 0.6 → 0.05 (half) + + Polymarket mapping: + A buyer paying significantly above market mid = aggressive taker (like ASK-side). + Displacement > 5% → 0.10, > 2% → 0.05. + """ + if not market or not market.outcome_prices: + return 0.0 + + # Get market mid price for the outcome the trader bought + if activity.outcome == "Yes": + market_mid = market.outcome_prices[0] + elif len(market.outcome_prices) > 1: + market_mid = market.outcome_prices[1] + else: + market_mid = 1.0 - market.outcome_prices[0] + + displacement = activity.price - market_mid + + if displacement > 0.05: + return 0.10 # strong conviction (like ASK ratio > 0.8) + if displacement > 0.02: + return 0.05 # moderate conviction (like ASK ratio > 0.6) + return 0.0 + + @staticmethod + def _depth_ratio_bonus(activity: TradeActivity, market: Optional[Market]) -> float: + """ + Trade size vs market liquidity (like Volume/OI). + + Mirrors _volume_oi_bonus: + V/OI > 3.0 → 0.10, > 1.5 → 0.07, > 1.0 → 0.03 + + Polymarket mapping: + depth_ratio = trade_size / market_liquidity + > 0.10 → 0.10, > 0.05 → 0.07, > 0.02 → 0.03 + """ + if not market or not market.liquidity or market.liquidity <= 0: + return 0.0 + + ratio = activity.usdc_size / market.liquidity + + if ratio > 0.10: + return 0.10 + if ratio > 0.05: + return 0.07 + if ratio > 0.02: + return 0.03 + return 0.0 + + def _cluster_tier_bonus(self, activity: TradeActivity, market_id: str = "") -> float: + """ + Cluster of same-direction trades in short window (like alert_rule tiers). + + Mirrors _alert_rule_bonus tier structure: + RepeatedHitsAscendingFill → 0.10 + RepeatedHits → 0.07 + SweepsFollowedByFloor → 0.05 + Single sweep → 0.03 + + Polymarket mapping: + 5+ same-direction trades in 5min → 0.10 + 3-4 trades → 0.07 + 2 trades with large volume → 0.03 + """ + key = market_id or activity.condition_id + recent = self._recent_trades.get(key) + if not recent: + return 0.0 + + now = activity.timestamp + cutoff = now - self._CLUSTER_WINDOW_SECONDS + + same_dir_count = 0 + same_dir_volume = 0.0 + for ts, side, size in recent: + if ts >= cutoff and side == activity.side: + same_dir_count += 1 + same_dir_volume += size + + if same_dir_count >= 5: + return 0.10 + if same_dir_count >= self._CLUSTER_MIN_COUNT: + return 0.07 + if same_dir_count >= 2 and same_dir_volume > 20_000: + return 0.03 + return 0.0 + + def record_trade(self, activity: TradeActivity, market_id: str): + """Record a trade for cluster detection. Call for every trade, not just whales.""" + self._recent_trades[market_id].append(( + activity.timestamp, + activity.side, + activity.usdc_size, + )) + + # ================================================================ + # Pre-filter (before LLM) + # ================================================================ + + def should_analyze( + self, + activity: TradeActivity, + market: Optional[Market] = None, + trader_history: Optional[TraderHistory] = None, + market_id: str = "", + min_score: float = 0.55, + ) -> Tuple[bool, float, dict]: + """ + Decide whether a whale trade warrants LLM analysis. + + Threshold 0.65: requires at least base (0.50) + one strong factor + to trigger LLM analysis. + """ + score, breakdown = self.get_anomaly_score( + activity, market, trader_history, market_id=market_id, + ) + return score >= min_score, score, breakdown + + # ================================================================ + # Legacy compatibility + # ================================================================ + + def is_anomalous_trade(self, activity: TradeActivity) -> bool: + """Check if a trade is anomalous based on size and price.""" + if activity.usdc_size < self.settings.min_trade_size_usd: + return False + if not (self.settings.min_price <= activity.price <= self.settings.max_price): + return False + return True + + def filter_whale_trades( + self, + trades: List[WhaleTrade], + min_score: float = 0.55, + ) -> List[WhaleTrade]: + """Filter whale trades by confidence score.""" + filtered = [] + for trade in trades: + score, _ = self.get_anomaly_score(trade.trade) + if score >= min_score: + filtered.append(trade) + return filtered + + # ================================================================ + # LLM context formatting + # ================================================================ + + def analyze_trade_context(self, whale_trade: WhaleTrade) -> dict: + """Analyze the context of a whale trade for LLM input.""" + trade = whale_trade.trade + + if trade.outcome == "Yes": + direction_meaning = f"Trader bought Yes Token @ {trade.price:.4f} — Bullish (believes event will occur)" + else: + direction_meaning = f"Trader bought No Token @ {trade.price:.4f} — Bearish (believes event will NOT occur)" + + implied_prob = trade.price + + market_state = "uncertain" + if whale_trade.market_outcome_prices: + max_price = max(whale_trade.market_outcome_prices) + if max_price > 0.7: + market_state = "leaning towards one outcome" + elif max_price < 0.6: + market_state = "highly uncertain" + + score, breakdown = self.get_anomaly_score(trade) + + return { + "trade_size_usd": trade.usdc_size, + "trade_side": trade.side, + "trade_price": trade.price, + "trade_outcome": trade.outcome, + "direction_meaning": direction_meaning, + "implied_probability": implied_prob, + "market_state": market_state, + "anomaly_score": score, + "anomaly_breakdown": breakdown, + "market_question": whale_trade.market_question, + "market_outcomes": whale_trade.market_outcomes, + "current_prices": whale_trade.market_outcome_prices, + } + + def format_for_llm(self, whale_trade: WhaleTrade) -> str: + """Format whale trade data for LLM analysis.""" + context = self.analyze_trade_context(whale_trade) + trade = whale_trade.trade + + prices_str = "" + for outcome, price in zip(context["market_outcomes"], context["current_prices"]): + prices_str += f" - {outcome}: {price:.2%}\n" + + trader_profile = self.trader_profiler.generate_profile( + wallet_address=trade.proxy_wallet or "Unknown", + ranking=whale_trade.trader_ranking, + history=whale_trade.trader_history, + ) + trader_profile_str = self.trader_profiler.format_profile_for_llm(trader_profile) + + bd = context["anomaly_breakdown"] + breakdown_str = ( + f" Base: {bd.get('base', 0):.2f} | " + f"Premium ratio: {bd.get('premium_ratio', 0):.2f} | " + f"Signal clean: {bd.get('signal_clean', 0):.2f} | " + f"Depth ratio: {bd.get('depth_ratio', 0):.2f} | " + f"Cluster tier: {bd.get('cluster_tier', 0):.2f}" + ) + + return f""" +## Whale Trade Anomaly Detection Report + +### Trade Details +- **Trade amount**: ${context['trade_size_usd']:,.2f} USDC +- **Trade direction**: BUY {context['trade_outcome']} Token ({'Bullish' if context['trade_outcome'] == 'Yes' else 'Bearish'}) +- **Buy price**: {context['trade_price']:.4f} (~{1/context['trade_price']:.1f}x odds) +- **Trade time**: {datetime.fromtimestamp(trade.timestamp).strftime('%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S UTC')} +- **Trader wallet**: {trade.proxy_wallet or 'Unknown'} + +### Confidence Score +- **Overall score**: {context['anomaly_score']:.2f}/1.00 +- **Score breakdown**: +{breakdown_str} + +### Trade Interpretation +- **Direction**: {context['direction_meaning']} +{trader_profile_str} + +### Market Information +- **Market question**: {context['market_question']} +- **Market description**: {whale_trade.market_description or 'N/A'} +- **Market state**: {context['market_state']} +- **Current odds**: +{prices_str} + +{whale_trade.format_event_positions()} + +{whale_trade.format_top_traders()} + +### Analysis Points +1. This is a ${context['trade_size_usd']:,.2f} large trade, direction: **BUY {context['trade_outcome']} Token** +2. {context['direction_meaning']} +3. **Focus on the Trader Profile JSON above — assess trader credibility from ranking, PnL, trading behavior, and recent trades** +4. **Analyze the whale's positions in other markets under the same event** — opposing positions may indicate hedging +5. **Reference the market's Top long/short holders** — which side has the concentration of high-ranked traders + +Please analyze the information asymmetry likelihood of this trade. +""" diff --git a/src/services/anomaly_history.py b/src/services/anomaly_history.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8d40ef2 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/services/anomaly_history.py @@ -0,0 +1,147 @@ +"""Anomaly history service - stores and retrieves historical anomaly signals via SQLite.""" +import logging +from typing import List, Optional + +from src.db.database import SignalDatabase +from src.models.anomaly_signal import AnomalySignal + +logger = logging.getLogger(__name__) + + +class AnomalyHistoryService: + """ + Service for storing and retrieving historical anomaly signals. + + Backend: SQLite via SignalDatabase. + All analyzed signals are stored for tracking accuracy. + Only signals with likelihood >= 0.4 are used as historical context for LLM. + """ + + # Minimum information asymmetry score to use as historical context for LLM + MIN_CONTEXT_LIKELIHOOD = 0.4 + + def __init__(self, db_path: str = "data/signals.db"): + """ + Initialize the anomaly history service. + + Args: + db_path: Path to the SQLite database file. + """ + self.db = SignalDatabase(db_path) + + def should_store_signal(self, insider_likelihood: float) -> bool: + """All analyzed signals should be stored for accuracy tracking.""" + return True + + def store_signal(self, signal: AnomalySignal) -> bool: + """ + Store an anomaly signal for accuracy tracking. + + All analyzed signals are stored regardless of likelihood. + """ + stored = self.db.insert_signal(signal) + if stored: + logger.info( + f"Stored signal for market {signal.market_id}: " + f"${signal.trade_size_usd:,.2f} {signal.trade_side} " + f"(IAS: {signal.information_asymmetry_score:.0%})" + ) + return stored + + def get_signals_for_market( + self, + market_id: str, + top_recent: int = 5, + top_likelihood: int = 5, + ) -> List[AnomalySignal]: + """ + Get historical anomaly signals for a market. + + Selects the most recent signals and highest insider likelihood signals, + then deduplicates and returns the combined list. + + Args: + market_id: The market ID + top_recent: Number of most recent signals to include + top_likelihood: Number of highest insider likelihood signals to include + + Returns: + List of AnomalySignal objects (deduplicated, sorted by trade timestamp newest first) + """ + return self.db.get_signals_for_market(market_id, top_recent, top_likelihood) + + def format_historical_signals_context( + self, + signals: List[AnomalySignal], + ) -> str: + """ + Format historical anomaly signals into a context string for LLM. + + Args: + signals: List of historical anomaly signals + + Returns: + Formatted string for LLM context + """ + if not signals: + return "" + + signal_count = len(signals) + + context = f""" +### Historical Anomaly Signals ({signal_count} total) + +**Important**: {signal_count} anomalous trades have been previously detected on this market. Please analyze these historical signals together with the current signal to provide a comprehensive information asymmetry assessment. + +""" + for i, signal in enumerate(signals, 1): + context += f""" +--- +#### Historical Signal {i} +{signal.to_context_string()} +--- +""" + + context += """ +**Comprehensive Analysis Points**: +1. Compare trade directions across all signals (historical + current) — is there a consistent trend? +2. Compare different traders' rankings and histories — where is the "smart money" flowing? +3. If multiple high-ranked traders point in the same direction, information asymmetry likelihood increases significantly +4. If signal directions conflict, analyze reasons (time changes, new information, differing judgments) +5. Consider time factor: more recent signals are more relevant +6. Observe trade amount trends: are amounts increasing? +""" + return context + + def get_all_market_ids(self) -> List[str]: + """ + Get all market IDs that have stored anomaly signals. + + Returns: + List of market IDs + """ + return self.db.get_all_market_ids() + + def get_signal_count(self, market_id: Optional[str] = None) -> int: + """ + Get the number of stored signals. + + Args: + market_id: Optional market ID to filter by + + Returns: + Number of stored signals + """ + return self.db.get_signal_count(market_id) + + def cleanup_old_signals(self, max_age_days: int = 30) -> int: + """ + Remove signals older than the specified number of days. + + Args: + max_age_days: Maximum age of signals to keep + + Returns: + Number of signals removed + """ + return self.db.cleanup_old_signals(max_age_days) diff --git a/src/services/coingecko.py b/src/services/coingecko.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..16795af --- /dev/null +++ b/src/services/coingecko.py @@ -0,0 +1,169 @@ +"""CoinGecko API service for cryptocurrency market data.""" +import logging +from typing import Optional + +import httpx +from src.utils.http import get_client + +logger = logging.getLogger(__name__) + +COINGECKO_API = "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3" + +# Common coin ID mapping (Polymarket markets often use ticker symbols) +TICKER_TO_ID = { + "BTC": "bitcoin", + "ETH": "ethereum", + "SOL": "solana", + "XRP": "ripple", + "DOGE": "dogecoin", + "ADA": "cardano", + "AVAX": "avalanche-2", + "DOT": "polkadot", + "MATIC": "matic-network", + "LINK": "chainlink", + "UNI": "uniswap", + "SHIB": "shiba-inu", + "LTC": "litecoin", + "BNB": "binancecoin", + "NEAR": "near", + "ARB": "arbitrum", + "OP": "optimism", + "APT": "aptos", + "SUI": "sui", + "PEPE": "pepe", +} + + +def _resolve_coin_id(query: str) -> str: + """Resolve a ticker or name to a CoinGecko coin ID.""" + q = query.strip().upper() + if q in TICKER_TO_ID: + return TICKER_TO_ID[q] + # Try lowercase as-is (CoinGecko IDs are lowercase) + return query.strip().lower() + + +class CoinGeckoService: + """ + CoinGecko API client for crypto market data. + + Free tier: 30 calls/min, no API key required. + """ + + def __init__(self): + self._client = get_client(timeout=15.0) + + def get_price(self, coin: str) -> str: + """ + Get current price, 24h change, market cap, and volume for a cryptocurrency. + + Args: + coin: Ticker symbol (BTC, ETH, SOL) or CoinGecko ID (bitcoin, ethereum) + + Returns: + Formatted price report string. + """ + coin_id = _resolve_coin_id(coin) + + try: + resp = self._client.get( + f"{COINGECKO_API}/coins/{coin_id}", + params={ + "localization": "false", + "tickers": "false", + "community_data": "false", + "developer_data": "false", + "sparkline": "false", + }, + ) + + if resp.status_code == 404: + return f"Coin '{coin}' (id: {coin_id}) not found on CoinGecko." + resp.raise_for_status() + data = resp.json() + + market = data.get("market_data", {}) + name = data.get("name", coin_id) + symbol = data.get("symbol", "").upper() + + price = market.get("current_price", {}).get("usd") + change_24h = market.get("price_change_percentage_24h") + change_7d = market.get("price_change_percentage_7d") + change_30d = market.get("price_change_percentage_30d") + high_24h = market.get("high_24h", {}).get("usd") + low_24h = market.get("low_24h", {}).get("usd") + market_cap = market.get("market_cap", {}).get("usd") + volume_24h = market.get("total_volume", {}).get("usd") + ath = market.get("ath", {}).get("usd") + ath_change = market.get("ath_change_percentage", {}).get("usd") + + lines = [ + f"--- {name} ({symbol}) Market Data ---", + f"Price: ${price:,.2f}" if price else "Price: N/A", + ] + + if high_24h and low_24h: + lines.append(f"24h Range: ${low_24h:,.2f} - ${high_24h:,.2f}") + + if change_24h is not None: + lines.append(f"24h Change: {change_24h:+.2f}%") + if change_7d is not None: + lines.append(f"7d Change: {change_7d:+.2f}%") + if change_30d is not None: + lines.append(f"30d Change: {change_30d:+.2f}%") + + if market_cap: + lines.append(f"Market Cap: ${market_cap:,.0f}") + if volume_24h: + lines.append(f"24h Volume: ${volume_24h:,.0f}") + + if ath and ath_change is not None: + lines.append(f"ATH: ${ath:,.2f} ({ath_change:+.1f}% from ATH)") + + lines.append("---") + return "\n".join(lines) + + except httpx.HTTPError as e: + msg = f"CoinGecko API error for '{coin}': {e}" + logger.error(msg) + return msg + except Exception as e: + msg = f"CoinGecko query failed for '{coin}': {e}" + logger.error(msg) + return msg + + def get_market_overview(self) -> str: + """ + Get global crypto market overview: total market cap, BTC dominance, etc. + + Returns: + Formatted global market overview string. + """ + try: + resp = self._client.get(f"{COINGECKO_API}/global") + resp.raise_for_status() + data = resp.json().get("data", {}) + + total_cap = data.get("total_market_cap", {}).get("usd", 0) + total_vol = data.get("total_volume", {}).get("usd", 0) + btc_dom = data.get("market_cap_percentage", {}).get("btc", 0) + eth_dom = data.get("market_cap_percentage", {}).get("eth", 0) + change_24h = data.get("market_cap_change_percentage_24h_usd", 0) + active_coins = data.get("active_cryptocurrencies", 0) + + lines = [ + "--- Global Crypto Market Overview ---", + f"Total Market Cap: ${total_cap:,.0f}", + f"24h Change: {change_24h:+.2f}%", + f"24h Volume: ${total_vol:,.0f}", + f"BTC Dominance: {btc_dom:.1f}%", + f"ETH Dominance: {eth_dom:.1f}%", + f"Active Coins: {active_coins:,}", + "---", + ] + return "\n".join(lines) + + except Exception as e: + msg = f"CoinGecko global query failed: {e}" + logger.error(msg) + return msg \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/src/services/congress.py b/src/services/congress.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..eccbeff --- /dev/null +++ b/src/services/congress.py @@ -0,0 +1,205 @@ +"""Congress.gov API service for U.S. legislative data.""" +import logging +from typing import Optional + +import httpx +from src.utils.http import get_client + +logger = logging.getLogger(__name__) + +CONGRESS_API = "https://api.congress.gov/v3" + + +class CongressService: + """ + Congress.gov API client for U.S. legislative data. + + Covers: bills, votes, members, committees, nominations. + """ + + def __init__(self, api_key: str): + self.api_key = api_key + self._client = get_client(timeout=15.0) + + def is_available(self) -> bool: + return bool(self.api_key and self.api_key.strip()) + + def _get(self, path: str, params: Optional[dict] = None) -> dict: + """Make authenticated GET request.""" + params = params or {} + params["api_key"] = self.api_key + params["format"] = "json" + resp = self._client.get(f"{CONGRESS_API}{path}", params=params) + resp.raise_for_status() + return resp.json() + + def search_bills(self, query: str, limit: int = 5) -> str: + """ + Search for bills by keyword. + + Args: + query: Search keywords (e.g. 'TikTok ban', 'crypto regulation', 'immigration') + limit: Number of results (1-10) + + Returns: + Formatted report of matching bills with status. + """ + limit = max(1, min(limit, 10)) + + try: + data = self._get("/bill", params={ + "limit": limit, + "sort": "updateDate+desc", + }) + + bills = data.get("bills", []) + if not bills: + return f"No bills found on Congress.gov." + + # Filter by query keyword in title (API doesn't support text search directly) + # So we fetch recent bills and note to user + lines = [f"--- Congress.gov: Recent Bills ---"] + lines.append(f"(Showing {len(bills)} most recently updated bills)") + lines.append("") + + for i, bill in enumerate(bills, 1): + bill_type = bill.get("type", "") + number = bill.get("number", "") + title = bill.get("title", "No title") + congress = bill.get("congress", "") + update_date = bill.get("updateDate", "")[:10] + latest_action = bill.get("latestAction", {}) + action_text = latest_action.get("text", "") + action_date = latest_action.get("actionDate", "") + + bill_id = f"{bill_type} {number}" if bill_type and number else "N/A" + + lines.append(f"{i}. **{bill_id}** (Congress {congress})") + lines.append(f" Title: {title[:150]}") + lines.append(f" Updated: {update_date}") + if action_text: + lines.append(f" Latest Action ({action_date}): {action_text[:150]}") + lines.append("") + + lines.append("---") + return "\n".join(lines) + + except Exception as e: + msg = f"Congress.gov search failed: {e}" + logger.error(msg) + return msg + + def get_bill_status(self, congress: int, bill_type: str, bill_number: int) -> str: + """ + Get detailed status of a specific bill. + + Args: + congress: Congress number (e.g. 119 for current) + bill_type: Bill type (hr, s, hjres, sjres) + bill_number: Bill number + + Returns: + Formatted bill status report. + """ + bt = bill_type.strip().lower() + + try: + data = self._get(f"/bill/{congress}/{bt}/{bill_number}") + bill = data.get("bill", {}) + + if not bill: + return f"Bill {bt.upper()} {bill_number} (Congress {congress}) not found." + + title = bill.get("title", "No title") + introduced = bill.get("introducedDate", "N/A") + sponsors = bill.get("sponsors", []) + sponsor_str = ", ".join( + f"{s.get('firstName', '')} {s.get('lastName', '')} ({s.get('party', '')}-{s.get('state', '')})" + for s in sponsors[:3] + ) if sponsors else "N/A" + + latest_action = bill.get("latestAction", {}) + action_text = latest_action.get("text", "N/A") + action_date = latest_action.get("actionDate", "") + + policy_area = bill.get("policyArea", {}).get("name", "N/A") + committees_count = bill.get("committees", {}).get("count", 0) + cosponsors_count = bill.get("cosponsors", {}).get("count", 0) + actions_count = bill.get("actions", {}).get("count", 0) + + # Determine bill progress + constitutional = bill.get("constitutionalAuthorityStatementText", "") + + lines = [ + f"--- Bill Status: {bt.upper()} {bill_number} (Congress {congress}) ---", + f"Title: {title}", + f"Introduced: {introduced}", + f"Sponsor: {sponsor_str}", + f"Cosponsors: {cosponsors_count}", + f"Policy Area: {policy_area}", + f"Committees Referred: {committees_count}", + f"Total Actions: {actions_count}", + f"", + f"Latest Action ({action_date}): {action_text}", + f"---", + ] + return "\n".join(lines) + + except httpx.HTTPStatusError as e: + if e.response.status_code == 404: + return f"Bill {bt.upper()} {bill_number} (Congress {congress}) not found." + return f"Congress.gov API error: HTTP {e.response.status_code}" + except Exception as e: + msg = f"Congress.gov bill query failed: {e}" + logger.error(msg) + return msg + + def get_recent_votes(self, chamber: str = "senate", limit: int = 5) -> str: + """ + Get recent roll call votes. + + Args: + chamber: 'senate' or 'house' + limit: Number of votes (1-10) + + Returns: + Formatted report of recent votes. + """ + chamber = chamber.strip().lower() + if chamber not in ("senate", "house"): + chamber = "senate" + limit = max(1, min(limit, 10)) + + try: + # Get current congress number (119th as of 2025-2026) + congress = 119 + + data = self._get(f"/bill", params={ + "limit": limit, + "sort": "updateDate+desc", + }) + + # Use the nominations endpoint for Senate votes + # or fall back to recent bill actions + lines = [f"--- Recent Congressional Activity ({chamber.title()}) ---"] + + bills = data.get("bills", []) + for i, bill in enumerate(bills[:limit], 1): + bill_type = bill.get("type", "") + number = bill.get("number", "") + title = bill.get("title", "")[:100] + latest = bill.get("latestAction", {}) + action = latest.get("text", "")[:120] + date = latest.get("actionDate", "") + + lines.append(f"{i}. {bill_type} {number}: {title}") + lines.append(f" {date}: {action}") + lines.append("") + + lines.append("---") + return "\n".join(lines) + + except Exception as e: + msg = f"Congress.gov votes query failed: {e}" + logger.error(msg) + return msg \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/src/services/daily_briefing.py b/src/services/daily_briefing.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..49a3b35 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/services/daily_briefing.py @@ -0,0 +1,390 @@ +"""Daily briefing service - generates daily summary of high-value signals.""" +import logging +import smtplib +from email.mime.text import MIMEText +from email.mime.multipart import MIMEMultipart +from datetime import datetime, timedelta +from pathlib import Path +from typing import List, Dict, Optional + +from src.config import get_settings +from src.db.database import SignalDatabase +from src.services.stats_engine import StatsEngine + +logger = logging.getLogger(__name__) + +# Directories +VOLATILITY_DIR = Path(__file__).parent.parent.parent / "price_volatility" +BRIEFINGS_DIR = Path(__file__).parent.parent.parent / "daily_briefings" + + +class DailyBriefingGenerator: + """ + Generates daily briefings summarizing high-value signals. + + Includes: + - Smart money signals with information asymmetry score >= 60% + - Price volatility alerts + - Historical signal performance stats + """ + + # Minimum information asymmetry score to include in briefing + MIN_IAS = 0.6 # 60% + + # Maximum signals to include when falling back to top-N + FALLBACK_TOP_N = 5 + + def __init__(self, db_path: str = "data/signals.db"): + """Initialize the briefing generator.""" + BRIEFINGS_DIR.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + self.db = SignalDatabase(db_path) + self.stats_engine = StatsEngine(self.db) + + def _get_date_range(self, date: datetime) -> tuple: + """ + Get start and end timestamps for a given date. + + Args: + date: The date to get range for + + Returns: + Tuple of (start_timestamp, end_timestamp) + """ + start = datetime(date.year, date.month, date.day, 0, 0, 0) + end = start + timedelta(days=1) + return int(start.timestamp()), int(end.timestamp()) + + def _load_insider_signals(self, date: datetime) -> tuple: + """ + Load smart money signals for a specific date from the database. + + First tries to find signals with likelihood >= 60%. + If none found, falls back to the top 5 by likelihood. + + Args: + date: The date to load signals for + + Returns: + Tuple of (signals list as dicts, is_fallback bool) + """ + date_str = date.strftime("%Y-%m-%d") + + # Query all signals detected on this date + all_signals = self.db.get_all_signals(limit=500, offset=0) + day_signals = [] + for signal in all_signals: + if signal.detected_at.strftime("%Y-%m-%d") == date_str: + day_signals.append(signal) + + if not day_signals: + return [], False + + # Sort by likelihood descending + day_signals.sort(key=lambda s: s.information_asymmetry_score, reverse=True) + + # Convert to dicts for backward compat with _format_briefing + def signal_to_dict(s): + return { + "market_id": s.market_id, + "market_question": s.market_question, + "transaction_hash": s.transaction_hash, + "trade_size_usd": s.trade_size_usd, + "trade_price": s.trade_price, + "trade_outcome": s.trade_outcome, + "information_asymmetry_score": s.information_asymmetry_score, + "reasoning": s.reasoning, + "insider_evidence": s.insider_evidence, + "detected_at": s.detected_at.isoformat(), + } + + # Filter high-likelihood signals + high_likelihood = [ + signal_to_dict(s) for s in day_signals + if s.information_asymmetry_score >= self.MIN_IAS + ] + + if high_likelihood: + return high_likelihood, False + + # Fallback: top N signals by likelihood + return [signal_to_dict(s) for s in day_signals[:self.FALLBACK_TOP_N]], True + + def _load_volatility_alerts(self, date: datetime) -> List[Dict]: + """ + Load price volatility alerts for a specific date. + + Args: + date: The date to load alerts for + + Returns: + List of volatility alerts + """ + import json + alerts_file = VOLATILITY_DIR / "volatility_alerts.json" + date_str = date.strftime("%Y-%m-%d") + + if not alerts_file.exists(): + return [] + + try: + with open(alerts_file, 'r', encoding='utf-8') as f: + all_alerts = json.load(f) + + # Filter alerts for the target date + day_alerts = [ + alert for alert in all_alerts + if alert.get("detected_at", "").startswith(date_str) + ] + + # Sort by price change magnitude descending + day_alerts.sort( + key=lambda x: abs(x.get("price_change_percent", 0)), + reverse=True + ) + + return day_alerts + + except Exception as e: + logger.error(f"Error loading volatility alerts: {e}") + return [] + + def _format_briefing( + self, + date: datetime, + insider_signals: List[Dict], + volatility_alerts: List[Dict], + is_fallback: bool = False, + ) -> str: + """ + Format the daily briefing as markdown. + + Args: + date: The date of the briefing + insider_signals: List of insider signals + volatility_alerts: List of price volatility alerts + is_fallback: True if signals are fallback (none >= 60%) + + Returns: + Formatted markdown briefing + """ + date_str = date.strftime("%Y-%m-%d") + + lines = [ + f"# Daily Signal Briefing - {date_str}", + "", + f"Generated at: {datetime.now().strftime('%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S')}", + "", + ] + + # Summary stats + if is_fallback: + summary_line = f"- No signals with confidence >= 60% today; showing the top **{len(insider_signals)}** by confidence" + else: + summary_line = f"- High-confidence information asymmetry signals: **{len(insider_signals)}** (confidence >= 60%)" + + lines.extend([ + "## Today's Overview", + "", + summary_line, + f"- Abnormal price volatility events: **{len(volatility_alerts)}**", + "", + ]) + + # Insider trading signals section + if is_fallback: + section_title = "## Today's Top Anomalous Trades by Confidence" + else: + section_title = "## High-Confidence Information Asymmetry Signals" + + lines.extend([ + "---", + "", + section_title, + "", + ]) + + if insider_signals: + for i, signal in enumerate(insider_signals, 1): + likelihood = signal.get("information_asymmetry_score", 0) + market_question = signal.get("market_question", "Unknown") + trade_size = signal.get("trade_size_usd", 0) + trade_price = signal.get("trade_price", 0) + trade_outcome = signal.get("trade_outcome", "Yes") + reasoning = signal.get("reasoning", "") + insider_evidence = signal.get("insider_evidence", "") + detected_at = signal.get("detected_at", "") + + # Odds calculation + odds_str = f"{1/trade_price:.1f}x" if trade_price > 0 else "N/A" + + lines.extend([ + f"### {i}. {market_question[:80]}{'...' if len(market_question) > 80 else ''}", + "", + f"| Metric | Value |", + f"|--------|-------|", + f"| Info Asymmetry | **{likelihood:.0%}** |", + f"| Direction | BUY {trade_outcome} Token ({'Bullish' if trade_outcome == 'Yes' else 'Bearish'}) |", + f"| Entry Price | {trade_price:.4f} (Odds {odds_str}) |", + f"| Trade Size | **${trade_size:,.0f}** USDC |", + f"| Detected At | {detected_at} |", + "", + ]) + + if reasoning: + lines.extend([ + f"**Analysis**: {reasoning}", + "", + ]) + + if insider_evidence: + lines.extend([ + f"**Insider Evidence**: {insider_evidence}", + "", + ]) + + lines.append("") + else: + lines.extend([ + "*No anomalous trade signals today*", + "", + ]) + + # Volatility alerts section + lines.extend([ + "---", + "", + "## Abnormal Price Volatility", + "", + ]) + + if volatility_alerts: + lines.extend([ + "| Market | Direction | Change | Start Price | End Price | Detected At |", + "|--------|-----------|--------|-------------|-----------|-------------|", + ]) + + for alert in volatility_alerts: + market_question = alert.get("market_question", "Unknown") + # Truncate long market questions + if len(market_question) > 40: + market_question = market_question[:37] + "..." + + direction = "Down" if alert.get("direction") == "DOWN" else "Up" + price_change = abs(alert.get("price_change_percent", 0)) + start_price = alert.get("start_price", 0) + end_price = alert.get("end_price", 0) + detected_at = alert.get("detected_at", "")[:16] # Trim to minute + + lines.append( + f"| {market_question} | {direction} | {price_change:.1%} | " + f"{start_price:.2%} | {end_price:.2%} | {detected_at} |" + ) + + lines.append("") + else: + lines.extend([ + "*No abnormal price volatility today*", + "", + ]) + + # Signal performance stats section + stats_summary = self.stats_engine.format_stats_summary() + if stats_summary: + lines.extend([ + "---", + "", + stats_summary, + ]) + + # Footer + lines.extend([ + "---", + "", + "*This briefing was automatically generated by Polymarket Whale Watcher*", + ]) + + return "\n".join(lines) + + def generate_briefing(self, date: Optional[datetime] = None) -> Optional[str]: + """ + Generate daily briefing for a specific date. + + Args: + date: The date to generate briefing for (defaults to yesterday) + + Returns: + Path to the saved briefing file, or None if no signals + """ + if date is None: + # Default to yesterday + date = datetime.now() - timedelta(days=1) + + date_str = date.strftime("%Y-%m-%d") + logger.info(f"Generating daily briefing for {date_str}") + + # Load signals + insider_signals, is_fallback = self._load_insider_signals(date) + volatility_alerts = self._load_volatility_alerts(date) + + # Check if there's anything to report + if not insider_signals and not volatility_alerts: + logger.info(f"No signals for {date_str}, skipping briefing") + return None + + # Generate briefing + briefing_content = self._format_briefing(date, insider_signals, volatility_alerts, is_fallback) + + # Save to file + filename = f"briefing_{date_str}.md" + filepath = BRIEFINGS_DIR / filename + + with open(filepath, 'w', encoding='utf-8') as f: + f.write(briefing_content) + + logger.info( + f"Daily briefing saved to {filepath} " + f"({len(insider_signals)} insider signals, {len(volatility_alerts)} volatility alerts)" + ) + + # Send email notification + self._send_email(date_str, briefing_content) + + return str(filepath) + + def _send_email(self, date_str: str, content: str) -> None: + """Send briefing via email if configured.""" + settings = get_settings() + if not settings.email_enabled: + return + if not settings.email_sender or not settings.email_password: + logger.warning("Email enabled but sender/password not configured, skipping") + return + + try: + recipients = [r.strip() for r in settings.email_recipient.split(",") if r.strip()] + + msg = MIMEMultipart("alternative") + msg["Subject"] = f"Polymarket Whale Daily Briefing - {date_str}" + msg["From"] = settings.email_sender + msg["To"] = ", ".join(recipients) + + # Markdown content as plain text + text_part = MIMEText(content, "plain", "utf-8") + msg.attach(text_part) + + with smtplib.SMTP_SSL(settings.email_smtp_server, settings.email_smtp_port) as server: + server.login(settings.email_sender, settings.email_password) + server.sendmail(settings.email_sender, recipients, msg.as_string()) + + logger.info(f"Daily briefing emailed to {', '.join(recipients)}") + except Exception as e: + logger.error(f"Failed to send briefing email: {e}") + + def generate_today_briefing(self) -> Optional[str]: + """ + Generate briefing for today (useful for testing or end-of-day summary). + + Returns: + Path to the saved briefing file, or None if no signals + """ + return self.generate_briefing(datetime.now()) diff --git a/src/services/ddg_search.py b/src/services/ddg_search.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4e4afdb --- /dev/null +++ b/src/services/ddg_search.py @@ -0,0 +1,62 @@ +"""DuckDuckGo web search service — free, no API key required.""" +import logging + +logger = logging.getLogger(__name__) + + +class DDGSearchService: + """Web search service using duckduckgo-search (no API key needed).""" + + def __init__(self): + self._available: bool | None = None + + def is_available(self) -> bool: + if self._available is None: + try: + from duckduckgo_search import DDGS # noqa: F401 + self._available = True + except ImportError: + logger.warning( + "duckduckgo-search not installed. " + "Install with: pip install duckduckgo-search" + ) + self._available = False + return self._available + + def search(self, query: str, max_results: int = 5) -> str: + if not self.is_available(): + return "Web search unavailable: duckduckgo-search package not installed." + + try: + from duckduckgo_search import DDGS + + with DDGS() as ddgs: + results = list(ddgs.text(query, max_results=max_results)) + + if not results: + return f"No web search results found for '{query}'." + + report = [f"--- Web Search Results for '{query}' ---"] + for idx, item in enumerate(results, 1): + title = item.get("title", "No title") + url = item.get("href", "") + body = item.get("body", "")[:300] + if len(item.get("body", "")) > 300: + body += "..." + report.append(f"{idx}. **{title}**") + report.append(f" Source: {url}") + report.append(f" {body}") + report.append("") + report.append("-------------------------------------------") + return "\n".join(report) + + except Exception as e: + logger.error(f"DuckDuckGo search failed: {e}") + return f"Web search failed: {str(e)}" + + def search_for_market(self, market_question: str, max_results: int = 5) -> str: + query = market_question[:200] + result = self.search(query, max_results=max_results) + if "No web search results" not in result and "Error" not in result and "unavailable" not in result: + return "## 🔍 Web Search Results (News & Analysis)\n" + result + return f"No relevant web results found for: {market_question[:50]}..." diff --git a/src/services/defillama.py b/src/services/defillama.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..53bfaff --- /dev/null +++ b/src/services/defillama.py @@ -0,0 +1,340 @@ +"""DeFiLlama API service for DeFi protocol data (TVL, revenue, token unlocks).""" +import logging +from typing import Optional + +import httpx +from src.utils.http import get_client + +logger = logging.getLogger(__name__) + +DEFILLAMA_API = "https://api.llama.fi" + + +def _fmt_usd(value) -> str: + """Format a dollar value with appropriate suffix.""" + if value is None: + return "N/A" + if isinstance(value, list): + return "N/A" + try: + value = float(value) + except (TypeError, ValueError): + return "N/A" + abs_val = abs(value) + if abs_val >= 1_000_000_000: + return f"${value / 1_000_000_000:,.2f}B" + if abs_val >= 1_000_000: + return f"${value / 1_000_000:,.2f}M" + if abs_val >= 1_000: + return f"${value / 1_000:,.2f}K" + return f"${value:,.2f}" + + +class DefiLlamaService: + """ + DeFiLlama API client for DeFi protocol analytics. + + Free API, no key required. Rate limits are generous. + """ + + def __init__(self): + self._client = get_client(timeout=20.0) + self._protocols_cache: Optional[list] = None + + @staticmethod + def is_available() -> bool: + """Always available - no API key needed.""" + return True + + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + # Internal helpers + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + + def _fetch_protocols_list(self) -> list: + """Fetch and cache the full protocols list for slug lookups.""" + if self._protocols_cache is not None: + return self._protocols_cache + try: + resp = self._client.get(f"{DEFILLAMA_API}/protocols") + resp.raise_for_status() + self._protocols_cache = resp.json() + return self._protocols_cache + except Exception as e: + logger.error(f"Failed to fetch DeFiLlama protocols list: {e}") + return [] + + def _resolve_slug(self, query: str) -> Optional[str]: + """ + Fuzzy-match a user query to a DeFiLlama protocol slug. + + Tries exact slug match, then name match, then substring match. + """ + q = query.strip().lower() + protocols = self._fetch_protocols_list() + + # 1) Exact slug match + for p in protocols: + if p.get("slug", "").lower() == q: + return p["slug"] + + # 2) Exact name match (case-insensitive) + for p in protocols: + if p.get("name", "").lower() == q: + return p["slug"] + + # 3) Substring match on slug or name – prefer shortest match (most specific) + candidates = [] + for p in protocols: + slug = p.get("slug", "").lower() + name = p.get("name", "").lower() + if q in slug or q in name: + candidates.append(p) + + if candidates: + # Sort by TVL descending so the most prominent protocol wins ties + candidates.sort(key=lambda p: p.get("tvl") or 0, reverse=True) + return candidates[0]["slug"] + + return None + + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + # Public methods – all return formatted strings + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + + def get_protocol_tvl(self, protocol: str) -> str: + """ + Get protocol TVL, TVL changes, and chain breakdown. + + Args: + protocol: Protocol name or slug (e.g., "aave", "Lido", "uniswap"). + + Returns: + Formatted TVL report string. + """ + slug = self._resolve_slug(protocol) + if slug is None: + return f"Protocol '{protocol}' not found on DeFiLlama." + + try: + resp = self._client.get(f"{DEFILLAMA_API}/protocol/{slug}") + if resp.status_code == 404: + return f"Protocol '{protocol}' (slug: {slug}) not found on DeFiLlama." + resp.raise_for_status() + data = resp.json() + + name = data.get("name", slug) + symbol = data.get("symbol", "") + category = data.get("category", "N/A") + # tvl field is a historical list; get current TVL from last entry or currentChainTvls + tvl_data = data.get("tvl") + if isinstance(tvl_data, list) and tvl_data: + tvl = tvl_data[-1].get("totalLiquidityUSD", 0) + elif isinstance(tvl_data, (int, float)): + tvl = tvl_data + else: + tvl = None + chain_tvls = data.get("chainTvls", {}) + + # TVL changes + change_1h = data.get("change_1h") + change_1d = data.get("change_1d") + change_7d = data.get("change_7d") + + lines = [ + f"--- {name} ({symbol}) TVL Report ---", + f"Category: {category}", + f"Total TVL: {_fmt_usd(tvl)}", + ] + + if change_1h is not None: + lines.append(f"1h Change: {change_1h:+.2f}%") + if change_1d is not None: + lines.append(f"24h Change: {change_1d:+.2f}%") + if change_7d is not None: + lines.append(f"7d Change: {change_7d:+.2f}%") + + # Chain breakdown – show top chains by TVL + if chain_tvls: + # chainTvls has sub-objects; the latest TVL per chain is the last entry + chain_summary = {} + for chain_name, chain_data in chain_tvls.items(): + # Skip aggregated keys like "staking", "borrowed", "pool2" + if "-" in chain_name or chain_name in ("staking", "borrowed", "pool2", "vesting"): + continue + if isinstance(chain_data, dict): + tvl_history = chain_data.get("tvl", []) + if tvl_history: + chain_summary[chain_name] = tvl_history[-1].get("totalLiquidityUSD", 0) + elif isinstance(chain_data, (int, float)): + chain_summary[chain_name] = chain_data + + if chain_summary: + sorted_chains = sorted(chain_summary.items(), key=lambda x: x[1], reverse=True) + lines.append("Chain Breakdown:") + for chain_name, chain_tvl in sorted_chains[:10]: + lines.append(f" {chain_name}: {_fmt_usd(chain_tvl)}") + + lines.append("---") + return "\n".join(lines) + + except httpx.HTTPError as e: + msg = f"DeFiLlama API error for '{protocol}': {e}" + logger.error(msg) + return msg + except Exception as e: + msg = f"DeFiLlama TVL query failed for '{protocol}': {e}" + logger.error(msg) + return msg + + def get_token_unlocks(self, protocol: str) -> str: + """ + Get token unlock/vesting schedule for a protocol. + + Args: + protocol: Protocol name or slug. + + Returns: + Formatted token unlock schedule string. + """ + slug = self._resolve_slug(protocol) + if slug is None: + return f"Protocol '{protocol}' not found on DeFiLlama." + + try: + resp = self._client.get(f"{DEFILLAMA_API}/api/emission/{slug}") + if resp.status_code == 404: + return f"No token unlock data for '{protocol}' on DeFiLlama." + resp.raise_for_status() + data = resp.json() + + name = data.get("name", slug) + token_price = data.get("tokenPrice", {}) + categories = data.get("categories", {}) + events = data.get("events", []) + + lines = [f"--- {name} Token Unlock Schedule ---"] + + # Token price info + if isinstance(token_price, dict): + price = token_price.get("price") + symbol = token_price.get("symbol", "") + if price: + lines.append(f"Token: {symbol.upper()} @ ${price:,.4f}") + + # Emission categories + if categories: + lines.append("Allocation Categories:") + for cat_name, cat_data in categories.items(): + if isinstance(cat_data, dict): + pct = cat_data.get("percentage") + if pct is not None: + lines.append(f" {cat_name}: {pct:.1f}%") + else: + lines.append(f" {cat_name}") + + # Upcoming events + if events: + lines.append("Upcoming Unlock Events:") + shown = 0 + for event in events[:10]: + desc = event.get("description", "Unlock") + date = event.get("date", "TBD") + amount = event.get("noOfTokens") + if amount: + lines.append(f" {date}: {desc} ({amount:,.0f} tokens)") + else: + lines.append(f" {date}: {desc}") + shown += 1 + if len(events) > 10: + lines.append(f" ... and {len(events) - 10} more events") + + if len(lines) == 1: + lines.append("No detailed unlock data available.") + + lines.append("---") + return "\n".join(lines) + + except httpx.HTTPError as e: + msg = f"DeFiLlama API error for '{protocol}' unlocks: {e}" + logger.error(msg) + return msg + except Exception as e: + msg = f"DeFiLlama unlock query failed for '{protocol}': {e}" + logger.error(msg) + return msg + + def get_protocol_revenue(self, protocol: str) -> str: + """ + Get protocol fees and revenue data. + + Args: + protocol: Protocol name or slug. + + Returns: + Formatted fees/revenue report string. + """ + slug = self._resolve_slug(protocol) + if slug is None: + return f"Protocol '{protocol}' not found on DeFiLlama." + + try: + resp = self._client.get(f"{DEFILLAMA_API}/summary/fees/{slug}") + if resp.status_code == 404: + return f"No fee/revenue data for '{protocol}' on DeFiLlama." + resp.raise_for_status() + data = resp.json() + + name = data.get("name", slug) + category = data.get("category", "N/A") + + total_24h = data.get("total24h") + total_7d = data.get("total7d") + total_30d = data.get("total30d") + total_all_time = data.get("totalAllTime") + revenue_24h = data.get("revenue24h") + revenue_7d = data.get("revenue7d") + revenue_30d = data.get("revenue30d") + + lines = [ + f"--- {name} Fees & Revenue ---", + f"Category: {category}", + ] + + # Fees + lines.append("Fees:") + if total_24h is not None: + lines.append(f" 24h Fees: {_fmt_usd(total_24h)}") + if total_7d is not None: + lines.append(f" 7d Fees: {_fmt_usd(total_7d)}") + if total_30d is not None: + lines.append(f" 30d Fees: {_fmt_usd(total_30d)}") + if total_all_time is not None: + lines.append(f" All-Time Fees: {_fmt_usd(total_all_time)}") + + # Revenue (protocol revenue, subset of fees) + has_revenue = any(v is not None for v in [revenue_24h, revenue_7d, revenue_30d]) + if has_revenue: + lines.append("Revenue (protocol share):") + if revenue_24h is not None: + lines.append(f" 24h Revenue: {_fmt_usd(revenue_24h)}") + if revenue_7d is not None: + lines.append(f" 7d Revenue: {_fmt_usd(revenue_7d)}") + if revenue_30d is not None: + lines.append(f" 30d Revenue: {_fmt_usd(revenue_30d)}") + + # Chain breakdown if available + chain_data = data.get("totalDataChartBreakdown") + if not chain_data and data.get("chains"): + lines.append(f"Available on chains: {', '.join(data['chains'][:15])}") + + lines.append("---") + return "\n".join(lines) + + except httpx.HTTPError as e: + msg = f"DeFiLlama API error for '{protocol}' revenue: {e}" + logger.error(msg) + return msg + except Exception as e: + msg = f"DeFiLlama revenue query failed for '{protocol}': {e}" + logger.error(msg) + return msg \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/src/services/etherscan.py b/src/services/etherscan.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..afb579d --- /dev/null +++ b/src/services/etherscan.py @@ -0,0 +1,319 @@ +"""Etherscan API service for Ethereum on-chain data (wallet balances, token transfers, contracts).""" +import logging +from datetime import datetime, timezone +from typing import Optional + +import httpx +from src.utils.http import get_client + +logger = logging.getLogger(__name__) + +ETHERSCAN_API_V2 = "https://api.etherscan.io/v2/api" + +# Default chain: Polygon (137) where Polymarket operates. +# Ethereum mainnet = 1, can be overridden per-call. +DEFAULT_CHAIN_ID = 137 + +# Well-known ERC-20 token contracts on Polygon +TOKEN_CONTRACTS = { + "USDC": "0x3c499c542cef5e3811e1192ce70d8cc03d5c3359", # USDC native on Polygon + "USDC.e": "0x2791bca1f2de4661ed88a30c99a7a9449aa84174", # USDC.e (bridged) on Polygon + "USDT": "0xc2132d05d31c914a87c6611c10748aeb04b58e8f", + "WETH": "0x7ceb23fd6bc0add59e62ac25578270cff1b9f619", + "DAI": "0x8f3cf7ad23cd3cadbd9735aff958023239c6a063", +} + +# Decimals per token (used for converting raw amounts) +TOKEN_DECIMALS = { + "USDC": 6, + "USDC.e": 6, + "USDT": 6, + "WETH": 18, + "DAI": 18, +} + + +def _format_amount(raw_value: str, decimals: int) -> float: + """Convert a raw token amount string to a human-readable float.""" + try: + return int(raw_value) / (10 ** decimals) + except (ValueError, TypeError): + return 0.0 + + +def _short_address(address: str) -> str: + """Shorten an Ethereum address for display.""" + if len(address) >= 10: + return f"{address[:6]}...{address[-4:]}" + return address + + +def _ts_to_str(timestamp: str) -> str: + """Convert a unix timestamp string to a readable UTC datetime.""" + try: + dt = datetime.fromtimestamp(int(timestamp), tz=timezone.utc) + return dt.strftime("%Y-%m-%d %H:%M UTC") + except (ValueError, TypeError): + return timestamp + + +class EtherscanService: + """ + Etherscan API client for Ethereum on-chain data. + + Note: Free tier is limited to 5 calls/sec. Add delays between rapid + successive calls if needed. + """ + + def __init__(self, api_key: str = ""): + self.api_key = api_key + self._client = get_client(timeout=20.0) + + def is_available(self) -> bool: + return bool(self.api_key and self.api_key.strip()) + + def _get(self, params: dict, chain_id: int = DEFAULT_CHAIN_ID) -> dict: + """Make authenticated GET request to Etherscan V2 API.""" + params["apikey"] = self.api_key + params["chainid"] = chain_id + resp = self._client.get(ETHERSCAN_API_V2, params=params) + resp.raise_for_status() + return resp.json() + + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + # 1. Token transfers + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + + def get_wallet_token_transfers(self, address: str, token: str = "USDC") -> str: + """ + Get recent ERC-20 token transfers for a wallet. + + Args: + address: Ethereum wallet address. + token: Token symbol to filter on (USDC, USDT, etc.). + Pass "ALL" to show all ERC-20 transfers. + + Returns: + Formatted transfer report string for LLM consumption. + """ + addr = address.strip().lower() + token_upper = token.strip().upper() + + try: + params = { + "module": "account", + "action": "tokentx", + "address": addr, + "sort": "desc", + "page": "1", + "offset": "20", + } + + data = self._get(params) + + if data.get("status") != "1" or not data.get("result"): + message = data.get("message", "No transfers found") + return f"No ERC-20 token transfers found for {_short_address(addr)}: {message}" + + transfers = data["result"] + + # Filter by token if not "ALL" + if token_upper != "ALL": + # For USDC, match both native and bridged (USDC.e) contracts + if token_upper == "USDC": + allowed = { + TOKEN_CONTRACTS.get("USDC", "").lower(), + TOKEN_CONTRACTS.get("USDC.e", "").lower(), + } + allowed.discard("") + transfers = [ + tx for tx in transfers + if tx.get("contractAddress", "").lower() in allowed + ] + else: + contract = TOKEN_CONTRACTS.get(token_upper, "").lower() + if contract: + transfers = [ + tx for tx in transfers + if tx.get("contractAddress", "").lower() == contract + ] + else: + # Try matching by symbol in the response + transfers = [ + tx for tx in transfers + if tx.get("tokenSymbol", "").upper() == token_upper + ] + + if not transfers: + return f"No {token_upper} transfers found for {_short_address(addr)} in the last 20 token transactions." + + lines = [f"--- Token Transfers for {_short_address(addr)} ({token_upper}) ---"] + + for tx in transfers: + tx_from = tx.get("from", "").lower() + tx_to = tx.get("to", "").lower() + symbol = tx.get("tokenSymbol", "???") + decimals = int(tx.get("tokenDecimal", TOKEN_DECIMALS.get(symbol.upper(), 18))) + raw_value = tx.get("value", "0") + amount = _format_amount(raw_value, decimals) + ts = _ts_to_str(tx.get("timeStamp", "")) + tx_hash = tx.get("hash", "") + + # Determine direction + if tx_from == addr: + direction = "OUT" + counterparty = _short_address(tx_to) + elif tx_to == addr: + direction = "IN" + counterparty = _short_address(tx_from) + else: + direction = "???" + counterparty = f"{_short_address(tx_from)} -> {_short_address(tx_to)}" + + # Flag large transfers + large_flag = "" + if symbol.upper() in ("USDC", "USDT", "DAI") and amount > 10_000: + large_flag = " [LARGE]" + elif symbol.upper() == "WETH" and amount > 5: + large_flag = " [LARGE]" + + lines.append( + f" {direction} {amount:,.2f} {symbol}{large_flag} | " + f"{'to' if direction == 'OUT' else 'from'}: {counterparty} | {ts}" + ) + + lines.append("---") + return "\n".join(lines) + + except httpx.HTTPError as e: + msg = f"Etherscan API error fetching token transfers for '{address}': {e}" + logger.error(msg) + return msg + except Exception as e: + msg = f"Etherscan token transfer query failed for '{address}': {e}" + logger.error(msg) + return msg + + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + # 2. Contract info + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + + def get_contract_info(self, address: str) -> str: + """ + Check if an address is a smart contract and retrieve basic contract metadata. + + Args: + address: Ethereum address to inspect. + + Returns: + Formatted contract info string for LLM consumption. + """ + addr = address.strip() + + try: + # First check if ABI is available (verified contract) + abi_data = self._get({ + "module": "contract", + "action": "getabi", + "address": addr, + }) + + is_verified = abi_data.get("status") == "1" + + # Get source code info (includes contract name, compiler, etc.) + source_data = self._get({ + "module": "contract", + "action": "getsourcecode", + "address": addr, + }) + + results = source_data.get("result", []) + + lines = [f"--- Contract Info for {_short_address(addr)} ---"] + + if not results or (isinstance(results, list) and len(results) == 0): + lines.append("No contract data returned. Address may be an EOA (externally owned account).") + lines.append("---") + return "\n".join(lines) + + info = results[0] if isinstance(results, list) else results + + contract_name = info.get("ContractName", "") + compiler = info.get("CompilerVersion", "") + optimization = info.get("OptimizationUsed", "") + proxy = info.get("Proxy", "0") + implementation = info.get("Implementation", "") + + if not contract_name: + lines.append("This address does not appear to be a verified contract.") + lines.append("It may be an EOA (regular wallet) or an unverified contract.") + else: + lines.append(f"Contract Name: {contract_name}") + lines.append(f"Verified: {'Yes' if is_verified else 'No'}") + if compiler: + lines.append(f"Compiler: {compiler}") + if optimization: + lines.append(f"Optimization: {'Yes' if optimization == '1' else 'No'}") + if proxy == "1": + lines.append(f"Proxy Contract: Yes") + if implementation: + lines.append(f"Implementation: {implementation}") + + lines.append("---") + return "\n".join(lines) + + except httpx.HTTPError as e: + msg = f"Etherscan API error fetching contract info for '{address}': {e}" + logger.error(msg) + return msg + except Exception as e: + msg = f"Etherscan contract query failed for '{address}': {e}" + logger.error(msg) + return msg + + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + # 3. ETH balance + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + + def get_wallet_eth_balance(self, address: str) -> str: + """ + Get ETH balance for a wallet address. + + Args: + address: Ethereum wallet address. + + Returns: + Formatted ETH balance string for LLM consumption. + """ + addr = address.strip() + + try: + data = self._get({ + "module": "account", + "action": "balance", + "address": addr, + "tag": "latest", + }) + + if data.get("status") != "1": + message = data.get("message", "Unknown error") + return f"Could not fetch ETH balance for {_short_address(addr)}: {message}" + + raw_balance = data.get("result", "0") + eth_balance = _format_amount(raw_balance, 18) + + lines = [ + f"--- ETH Balance for {_short_address(addr)} ---", + f"Balance: {eth_balance:,.6f} ETH", + "---", + ] + return "\n".join(lines) + + except httpx.HTTPError as e: + msg = f"Etherscan API error fetching ETH balance for '{address}': {e}" + logger.error(msg) + return msg + except Exception as e: + msg = f"Etherscan balance query failed for '{address}': {e}" + logger.error(msg) + return msg \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/src/services/fred.py b/src/services/fred.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4b8e16b --- /dev/null +++ b/src/services/fred.py @@ -0,0 +1,180 @@ +"""FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) API service for macroeconomic indicators.""" +import logging +from typing import Optional + +import httpx +from src.utils.http import get_client + +logger = logging.getLogger(__name__) + +FRED_API = "https://api.stlouisfed.org/fred" + +# Common series IDs for prediction market analysis +SERIES_MAP = { + # Interest rates + "fed_funds_rate": "FEDFUNDS", + "fed_rate": "FEDFUNDS", + "interest_rate": "FEDFUNDS", + "10y_treasury": "DGS10", + "2y_treasury": "DGS2", + "30y_mortgage": "MORTGAGE30US", + # Inflation + "cpi": "CPIAUCSL", + "core_cpi": "CPILFESL", + "pce": "PCEPI", + "core_pce": "PCEPILFE", + "inflation": "CPIAUCSL", + # Employment + "unemployment": "UNRATE", + "unemployment_rate": "UNRATE", + "nonfarm_payrolls": "PAYEMS", + "jobs": "PAYEMS", + "initial_claims": "ICSA", + "jobless_claims": "ICSA", + # GDP + "gdp": "GDP", + "real_gdp": "GDPC1", + "gdp_growth": "A191RL1Q225SBEA", + # Markets / Financial conditions + "sp500": "SP500", + "vix": "VIXCLS", + "yield_curve": "T10Y2Y", + "financial_stress": "STLFSI2", + # Dollar + "dollar_index": "DTWEXBGS", + "usd": "DTWEXBGS", + # Oil / Commodities + "oil_price": "DCOILWTICO", + "wti": "DCOILWTICO", + "crude_oil": "DCOILWTICO", + "brent": "DCOILBRENTEU", + "gas_price": "GASREGW", + "gold": "GOLDAMGBD228NLBM", +} + + +def _resolve_series_id(query: str) -> str: + """Resolve a common name to a FRED series ID.""" + q = query.strip().lower().replace(" ", "_") + if q in SERIES_MAP: + return SERIES_MAP[q] + # If already looks like a FRED series ID (uppercase), use as-is + return query.strip().upper() + + +class FREDService: + """ + FRED API client for macroeconomic data. + + Free, unlimited usage with API key. + """ + + def __init__(self, api_key: str): + self.api_key = api_key + self._client = get_client(timeout=15.0) + + def is_available(self) -> bool: + return bool(self.api_key and self.api_key.strip()) + + def get_series(self, query: str, num_observations: int = 10) -> str: + """ + Get recent observations for an economic data series. + + Args: + query: Common name (e.g. 'fed_rate', 'cpi', 'unemployment', 'oil_price') + or a FRED series ID (e.g. 'FEDFUNDS', 'UNRATE') + num_observations: Number of recent data points to return + + Returns: + Formatted report with series info and recent values. + """ + series_id = _resolve_series_id(query) + + try: + # Get series metadata + meta_resp = self._client.get( + f"{FRED_API}/series", + params={ + "series_id": series_id, + "api_key": self.api_key, + "file_type": "json", + }, + ) + + if meta_resp.status_code == 400: + return ( + f"Series '{query}' (id: {series_id}) not found on FRED. " + f"Common names: fed_rate, cpi, unemployment, gdp, oil_price, " + f"vix, yield_curve, gold, sp500, jobless_claims" + ) + meta_resp.raise_for_status() + meta = meta_resp.json().get("seriess", [{}])[0] + + title = meta.get("title", series_id) + frequency = meta.get("frequency", "") + units = meta.get("units", "") + last_updated = meta.get("last_updated", "") + + # Get recent observations + obs_resp = self._client.get( + f"{FRED_API}/series/observations", + params={ + "series_id": series_id, + "api_key": self.api_key, + "file_type": "json", + "sort_order": "desc", + "limit": num_observations, + }, + ) + obs_resp.raise_for_status() + observations = obs_resp.json().get("observations", []) + + lines = [ + f"--- FRED: {title} ({series_id}) ---", + f"Units: {units}", + f"Frequency: {frequency}", + f"Last Updated: {last_updated}", + "", + "Recent Data:", + ] + + for obs in reversed(observations): + date = obs.get("date", "") + value = obs.get("value", ".") + if value == ".": + lines.append(f" {date}: N/A") + else: + try: + v = float(value) + lines.append(f" {date}: {v:,.2f}") + except ValueError: + lines.append(f" {date}: {value}") + + # Add trend info if enough data + valid_vals = [] + for obs in observations: + v = obs.get("value", ".") + if v != ".": + try: + valid_vals.append(float(v)) + except ValueError: + pass + + if len(valid_vals) >= 2: + latest = valid_vals[0] + prev = valid_vals[1] + change = latest - prev + pct = (change / abs(prev) * 100) if prev != 0 else 0 + lines.append(f"\nLatest vs Previous: {change:+.2f} ({pct:+.2f}%)") + + lines.append("---") + return "\n".join(lines) + + except httpx.HTTPError as e: + msg = f"FRED API error for '{query}' ({series_id}): {e}" + logger.error(msg) + return msg + except Exception as e: + msg = f"FRED query failed for '{query}': {e}" + logger.error(msg) + return msg \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/src/services/llm_analyzer.py b/src/services/llm_analyzer.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..29ce58c --- /dev/null +++ b/src/services/llm_analyzer.py @@ -0,0 +1,466 @@ +""" +LLM analyzer service - analyzes whale trades using AI with tool-use. + +Architecture: +1. Build context (trade info + historical signals) +2. Send to LLM with tool schemas (search_twitter, search_web, etc.) +3. LLM decides which tools to call (if any) +4. Execute tool calls, return results to LLM +5. LLM produces final analysis + JSON decision + +The LLM controls which information sources to query based on the market type. +""" +import json +import logging +import re +from datetime import datetime +from typing import Optional + +from openai import OpenAI + +from src.config import get_settings +from src.models.trade import WhaleTrade +from src.models.decision import LLMDecision, TradeRecommendation, TradeAction, TraderCredibility +from src.models.anomaly_signal import AnomalySignal +from src.services.anomaly_detector import AnomalyDetector +from src.services.anomaly_history import AnomalyHistoryService +from src.services.tools import ToolRegistry +from src.prompts.whale_analyzer import WhaleAnalyzerPrompts + +logger = logging.getLogger(__name__) + +# Maximum tool-use rounds to prevent infinite loops +# 14 tools available; LLM can call multiple per round but may need +# several rounds for chain-of-investigation (search → discover → verify) +MAX_TOOL_ROUNDS = 3 + + +class LLMAnalyzer: + """Analyzes whale trades using LLM with function-calling tools.""" + + def __init__(self): + self.settings = get_settings() + + self.client = OpenAI( + base_url=self.settings.llm_base_url, + api_key=self.settings.llm_api_key, + ) + + self.anomaly_detector = AnomalyDetector() + self.prompts = WhaleAnalyzerPrompts() + self.anomaly_history = AnomalyHistoryService(self.settings.db_path) + + # Tool registry — LLM decides which tools to call + self.tool_registry = ToolRegistry( + twitter_api_key=self.settings.twitter_api_key, + tavily_api_key=self.settings.tavily_api_key, + fred_api_key=self.settings.fred_api_key, + polygon_api_key=self.settings.polygon_api_key, + congress_api_key=self.settings.congress_api_key, + etherscan_api_key=self.settings.etherscan_api_key, + serper_api_key=self.settings.serper_api_key, + telegram_api_id=self.settings.telegram_api_id, + telegram_api_hash=self.settings.telegram_api_hash, + telegram_session_string=self.settings.telegram_session_string, + telegram_channels=self.settings.telegram_channels, + ) + + self._last_historical_signal_count = 0 + + @property + def last_historical_signal_count(self) -> int: + return self._last_historical_signal_count + + # ================================================================ + # Response parsing + # ================================================================ + + # Fields that identify the final recommendation JSON (vs intermediate tool-call JSONs) + _RECOMMENDATION_FIELDS = {"information_asymmetry_score", "confidence", "trader_credibility"} + + def _extract_json_from_response(self, response: str) -> Optional[dict]: + """Extract the final recommendation JSON from LLM response text. + + When the response contains multiple JSON code blocks (e.g. an + intermediate ANALYZE decision followed by the real assessment), + prefer the block that contains recommendation-specific fields. + Falls back to the last parseable block. + """ + candidates: list[dict] = [] + for match in re.findall(r"```(?:json)?\s*([\s\S]*?)```", response): + try: + candidates.append(json.loads(match.strip())) + except json.JSONDecodeError: + continue + + if candidates: + # Prefer the block that looks like a final recommendation + for c in reversed(candidates): + if c.keys() & self._RECOMMENDATION_FIELDS: + return c + # No block has recommendation fields — return the last one + return candidates[-1] + + # Try raw JSON + try: + start = response.find("{") + end = response.rfind("}") + 1 + if start >= 0 and end > start: + return json.loads(response[start:end]) + except json.JSONDecodeError: + pass + + return None + + def _parse_recommendation(self, json_data: dict) -> TradeRecommendation: + """Parse JSON into TradeRecommendation.""" + action_str = json_data.get("action", "HOLD").upper() + try: + action = TradeAction(action_str) + except ValueError: + action = TradeAction.HOLD + + confidence = max(0.0, min(1.0, float(json_data.get("confidence", 0.0)))) + + suggested_price = json_data.get("suggested_price") + if suggested_price is not None: + suggested_price = float(suggested_price) + + suggested_size = max(0.0, min(1.0, float(json_data.get("suggested_size_percent", 0.1)))) + + insider_likelihood = max(0.0, min(1.0, float(json_data.get("information_asymmetry_score", 0.0)))) + + credibility_str = json_data.get("trader_credibility", "UNKNOWN").upper() + try: + trader_credibility = TraderCredibility(credibility_str) + except ValueError: + trader_credibility = TraderCredibility.UNKNOWN + + return TradeRecommendation( + action=action, + outcome=str(json_data.get("outcome", "")), + confidence=confidence, + suggested_price=suggested_price, + suggested_size_percent=suggested_size, + reasoning=str(json_data.get("reasoning", "")), + information_asymmetry_score=insider_likelihood, + trader_credibility=trader_credibility, + insider_evidence=str(json_data.get("insider_evidence", "")), + ) + + # ================================================================ + # Anomaly signal storage + # ================================================================ + + def _store_anomaly_signal_if_qualified( + self, + whale_trade: WhaleTrade, + decision: LLMDecision, + ) -> None: + """Store anomaly signal if information asymmetry score qualifies.""" + rec = decision.recommendation + + if not self.anomaly_history.should_store_signal(rec.information_asymmetry_score): + logger.debug( + f"Signal not stored: IAS {rec.information_asymmetry_score:.2f} " + f"below threshold" + ) + return + + signal = AnomalySignal( + id=whale_trade.id, + market_id=whale_trade.market_id, + market_question=whale_trade.market_question, + market_slug=whale_trade.trade.slug, + condition_id=whale_trade.trade.condition_id, + transaction_hash=whale_trade.trade.transaction_hash, + trade_timestamp=whale_trade.trade.timestamp, + trade_side=whale_trade.trade.side, + trade_price=whale_trade.trade.price, + trade_size_usd=whale_trade.trade.usdc_size, + trade_outcome=whale_trade.trade.outcome, + trader_wallet=whale_trade.trade.proxy_wallet, + trader_ranking=whale_trade.trader_ranking, + trader_history=whale_trade.trader_history, + information_asymmetry_score=rec.information_asymmetry_score, + reasoning=rec.reasoning, + insider_evidence=rec.insider_evidence, + detected_at=whale_trade.detected_at, + ) + + stored = self.anomaly_history.store_signal(signal) + if stored: + logger.info( + f"Stored anomaly signal: {whale_trade.market_question[:50]}... " + f"IAS={rec.information_asymmetry_score:.0%}" + ) + + # ================================================================ + # Tool-use loop + # ================================================================ + + def _execute_tool_calls(self, tool_calls) -> list[dict]: + """Execute tool calls from the LLM and return message dicts.""" + results = [] + for tc in tool_calls: + fn_name = tc.function.name + try: + fn_args = json.loads(tc.function.arguments) + except json.JSONDecodeError: + fn_args = {} + + logger.info(f"LLM requested tool: {fn_name}({fn_args})") + output = self.tool_registry.call(fn_name, **fn_args) + + results.append({ + "role": "tool", + "tool_call_id": tc.id, + "content": output, + }) + return results + + async def analyze_whale_trade(self, whale_trade: WhaleTrade) -> LLMDecision: + """ + Analyze a whale trade using LLM with tool-use. + + Flow: + 0. Pre-screening: lightweight check if signal is worth full analysis + 1. Build initial context (trade + historical signals) + 2. Send to LLM with available tool schemas + 3. If LLM requests tools → execute → return results → repeat (up to MAX_TOOL_ROUNDS) + 4. Parse final text response for JSON decision + """ + # Build context + trade_context = self.anomaly_detector.format_for_llm(whale_trade) + + historical_context = "" + historical_signals = self.anomaly_history.get_signals_for_market( + whale_trade.market_id, top_recent=5, top_likelihood=5, + ) + self._last_historical_signal_count = len(historical_signals) + if historical_signals: + historical_context = self.anomaly_history.format_historical_signals_context(historical_signals) + logger.info(f"Found {len(historical_signals)} historical anomaly signals for market") + + # Build initial messages + system_prompt = self.prompts.system_prompt() + user_prompt = self.prompts.analyze_whale_trade(trade_context, historical_context) + + messages = [ + {"role": "system", "content": system_prompt}, + {"role": "user", "content": user_prompt}, + ] + + # Tool schemas (empty list if no tools available) + tool_schemas = self.tool_registry.openai_tool_schemas() + + try: + analysis_text = "" + + # Tool-use loop + for round_idx in range(MAX_TOOL_ROUNDS + 1): + # Last round: no tools, force final answer + is_last_round = (round_idx == MAX_TOOL_ROUNDS) + if is_last_round: + messages.append({ + "role": "user", + "content": ( + "You have used all available tool rounds. " + "Based on all information gathered, provide your final " + "analysis and output the JSON assessment now." + ), + }) + + # Call LLM + call_kwargs = { + "model": self.settings.llm_model, + "messages": messages, + "max_tokens": 8192, + } + if tool_schemas and not is_last_round: + call_kwargs["tools"] = tool_schemas + call_kwargs["tool_choice"] = "auto" + + response = self.client.chat.completions.create(**call_kwargs) + msg = response.choices[0].message + + # If LLM wants to call tools + if msg.tool_calls: + logger.info( + f"Round {round_idx + 1}: LLM requested " + f"{len(msg.tool_calls)} tool call(s)" + ) + + # Append assistant message with tool calls + messages.append(msg.model_dump()) + + # Execute tools and append results + tool_results = self._execute_tool_calls(msg.tool_calls) + messages.extend(tool_results) + + continue # Next round — LLM processes tool results + + # No tool calls — final response + analysis_text = msg.content or "" + finish_reason = response.choices[0].finish_reason + logger.info( + f"Analysis complete after {round_idx + 1} round(s) " + f"({len(analysis_text)} chars, finish={finish_reason})" + ) + if len(analysis_text) < 200: + logger.warning(f"Suspiciously short response: {analysis_text[:200]}") + break + + # Parse JSON decision from final response + json_data = self._extract_json_from_response(analysis_text) + + if json_data: + # Check if LLM decided to skip (pre-screening in prompt) + if json_data.get("action") == "SKIP": + reason = json_data.get("reason", "not in scope") + logger.info( + f"⏭️ Pre-screening SKIP: {reason} " + f"(market: {whale_trade.market_question[:40]}...)" + ) + return LLMDecision( + whale_trade_id=whale_trade.id, + market_id=whale_trade.market_id, + analysis=f"Pre-screening: {reason}", + recommendation=TradeRecommendation( + action=TradeAction.HOLD, + outcome="", + confidence=0.0, + reasoning=f"Signal filtered: {reason}", + ), + ) + + recommendation = self._parse_recommendation(json_data) + else: + logger.warning("Could not parse LLM response as JSON, defaulting to HOLD") + recommendation = TradeRecommendation( + action=TradeAction.HOLD, + outcome="", + confidence=0.0, + reasoning="Failed to parse LLM response", + ) + + decision = LLMDecision( + whale_trade_id=whale_trade.id, + market_id=whale_trade.market_id, + analysis=analysis_text, + recommendation=recommendation, + ) + + self._store_anomaly_signal_if_qualified(whale_trade, decision) + return decision + + except Exception as e: + logger.error(f"Error in LLM analysis: {e}") + return LLMDecision( + whale_trade_id=whale_trade.id, + market_id=whale_trade.market_id, + analysis=f"Error during analysis: {str(e)}", + recommendation=TradeRecommendation( + action=TradeAction.HOLD, + outcome="", + confidence=0.0, + reasoning=f"Analysis failed: {str(e)}", + ), + ) + + # ================================================================ + # Report formatting (unchanged) + # ================================================================ + + def format_full_report( + self, + whale_trade: WhaleTrade, + decision: LLMDecision, + historical_signal_count: int = 0, + ) -> str: + """Format a complete analysis report.""" + trade = whale_trade.trade + rec = decision.recommendation + + prices_str = "" + if whale_trade.market_outcomes and whale_trade.market_outcome_prices: + prices_str = " | ".join([ + f"{o}: {p:.1%}" + for o, p in zip(whale_trade.market_outcomes, whale_trade.market_outcome_prices) + ]) + + action_indicator = { + TradeAction.BUY: "🟢 BUY", + TradeAction.SELL: "🔴 SELL", + TradeAction.HOLD: "⚪ HOLD", + } + + ias = rec.information_asymmetry_score + if ias >= 0.7: + insider_indicator = f"High Information Asymmetry ({ias:.0%})" + elif ias >= 0.4: + insider_indicator = f"Medium Information Asymmetry ({ias:.0%})" + else: + insider_indicator = f"Low Information Asymmetry ({ias:.0%})" + + rank_num = whale_trade.trader_ranking.rank if whale_trade.trader_ranking and whale_trade.trader_ranking.rank else None + credibility_indicators = { + TraderCredibility.HIGH: f"High Credibility (#{rank_num})" if rank_num else "High Credibility", + TraderCredibility.MEDIUM: f"Medium Credibility (#{rank_num})" if rank_num else "Medium Credibility", + TraderCredibility.LOW: f"Low Credibility (#{rank_num})" if rank_num else "Low Credibility", + TraderCredibility.UNKNOWN: "Unknown (Unranked)", + } + credibility_str = credibility_indicators.get(rec.trader_credibility, "Unknown") + + trader_ranking_str = "" + if whale_trade.trader_ranking: + tr = whale_trade.trader_ranking + rank_str = f"#{tr.rank}" if tr.rank else "Unranked" + pnl_str = f"${tr.pnl:,.2f}" if tr.pnl else "N/A" + trader_ranking_str = f"| **Trader Rank** | {rank_str} (PnL: {pnl_str}) |" + + historical_info = "" + if historical_signal_count > 0: + historical_info = f"\n**Historical Anomaly Signals Referenced**: {historical_signal_count} (analyzed together)" + + report = f""" +{'='*70} +# Whale Trade Analysis Report +{'='*70} + +**Generated at**: {datetime.utcnow().strftime('%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S')} UTC{historical_info} + +## Trade Summary + +| Field | Details | +|-------|---------| +| **Market** | {whale_trade.market_question} | +| **Trade Size** | ${trade.usdc_size:,.2f} USDC | +| **Direction** | BUY {trade.outcome} Token ({'Bullish' if trade.outcome == 'Yes' else 'Bearish'}) | +| **Trade Price** | {trade.price:.4f} ({trade.price:.1%}) | +| **Current Odds** | {prices_str} | +| **Trade Time** | {datetime.fromtimestamp(trade.timestamp).strftime('%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S') if trade.timestamp else 'N/A'} | +{trader_ranking_str} + +{'='*70} + +{decision.analysis} + +{'='*70} +## Information Asymmetry Assessment +{'='*70} + +| Field | Assessment | +|-------|------------| +| **Information Asymmetry** | {insider_indicator} | +| **Trader Credibility** | {credibility_str} | + +**Key Evidence**: {rec.insider_evidence or 'No clear evidence'} + +**Reasoning**: {rec.reasoning} + +{'='*70} +Disclaimer: This report is AI-generated for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. +{'='*70} +""" + return report \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/src/services/market_fetcher.py b/src/services/market_fetcher.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..9041fc9 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/services/market_fetcher.py @@ -0,0 +1,531 @@ +"""Market fetching service - fetches trending markets from Polymarket.""" +import json +import logging +from typing import List, Optional + +import httpx + +from src.config import get_settings +from src.models.market import Market, TrendingMarket +from src.utils.http import get_client + +logger = logging.getLogger(__name__) + + +class MarketFetcher: + """Fetches and manages trending markets from Polymarket Gamma API.""" + + # Short-term price prediction markets to filter out (no signal value) + # Matches patterns like "Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET" + SHORT_TERM_PRICE_KEYWORDS = [ + "up or down", # "Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:00AM" + "higher or lower", # price higher or lower + "above or below", # close above or below + "opens up or down", # "S&P 500 Opens Up or Down" + "green or red", # daily candle color + ] + + # Temperature/weather markets (no signal value) + WEATHER_KEYWORDS = [ + "highest temperature", + "lowest temperature", + "temperature in", + "weather", + "rainfall", + "°f on", + "°c on", + ] + + # Sports-related keywords to filter out + SPORTS_KEYWORDS = [ + "nba", "nfl", "mlb", "nhl", "mls", "ufc", "wwe", "pga", "atp", "wta", + "fifa", "uefa", "epl", "premier league", "la liga", "serie a", "bundesliga", + "champions league", "world cup", "olympics", "olympic", + "basketball", "football", "soccer", "baseball", "hockey", "tennis", + "golf", "boxing", "mma", "wrestling", "cricket", "rugby", "f1", "formula 1", + "nascar", "racing", "motorsport", + "game", "match", "vs", "versus", "playoff", "playoffs", "finals", + "championship", "tournament", "season", "super bowl", "world series", + "score", "points", "goals", "touchdowns", "wins", "win against", + "beat", "defeat", + "mvp", "rookie", "all-star", "draft", "trade", + "lakers", "celtics", "warriors", "bulls", "heat", "knicks", + "yankees", "dodgers", "red sox", "cubs", "mets", + "cowboys", "patriots", "chiefs", "eagles", "49ers", + "manchester", "barcelona", "real madrid", "liverpool", "chelsea", + ] + + def __init__(self): + self.settings = get_settings() + self.gamma_url = "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com" + self.markets_endpoint = f"{self.gamma_url}/markets" + self.events_endpoint = f"{self.gamma_url}/events" + self._client = get_client(timeout=30.0) + + def __del__(self): + """Cleanup HTTP client.""" + if hasattr(self, "_client"): + self._client.close() + + def _should_filter_market(self, market_data: dict) -> str: + """ + Check if a market should be filtered out. + + Returns: + Filter reason string if should be filtered, empty string if OK. + """ + question = (market_data.get("question") or "").lower() + description = (market_data.get("description") or "").lower() + slug = (market_data.get("slug") or "").lower() + text = f"{question} {description} {slug}" + + for keyword in self.SPORTS_KEYWORDS: + if keyword in text: + return "sports" + + for keyword in self.SHORT_TERM_PRICE_KEYWORDS: + if keyword in text: + return "short_term_price" + + for keyword in self.WEATHER_KEYWORDS: + if keyword in text: + return "weather" + + return "" + + def _is_sports_market(self, market_data: dict) -> bool: + """Legacy compatibility.""" + return bool(self._should_filter_market(market_data)) + + def _parse_market(self, data: dict) -> Optional[Market]: + """Parse raw market data into Market model.""" + try: + # Parse outcome prices (comes as stringified list) + outcome_prices = data.get("outcomePrices", []) + if isinstance(outcome_prices, str): + outcome_prices = json.loads(outcome_prices) + outcome_prices = [float(p) for p in outcome_prices] + + # Parse clob token IDs + clob_token_ids = data.get("clobTokenIds", []) + if isinstance(clob_token_ids, str): + clob_token_ids = json.loads(clob_token_ids) + + # Parse outcomes + outcomes = data.get("outcomes", []) + if isinstance(outcomes, str): + outcomes = json.loads(outcomes) + + return Market( + id=str(data.get("id", "")), + question=data.get("question", ""), + condition_id=data.get("conditionId"), + slug=data.get("slug"), + description=data.get("description"), + end_date=data.get("endDate"), + outcomes=outcomes, + outcome_prices=outcome_prices, + clob_token_ids=clob_token_ids, + volume=float(data.get("volume", 0) or 0), + volume_24hr=float(data.get("volume24hr", 0) or 0), + liquidity=float(data.get("liquidity", 0) or 0), + active=data.get("active", False), + closed=data.get("closed", False), + neg_risk=data.get("negRisk", False), + ) + except Exception as e: + logger.warning(f"Failed to parse market {data.get('id')}: {e}") + return None + + def get_trending_markets(self, limit: Optional[int] = None) -> List[TrendingMarket]: + """ + Fetch trending markets sorted by 24-hour volume. + + Filters out sports-related markets since they lack fundamental analysis value. + + Args: + limit: Maximum number of non-sports markets to return (defaults to settings) + + Returns: + List of TrendingMarket objects (excluding sports markets) + """ + limit = limit or self.settings.trending_markets_limit + trending_markets = [] + offset = 0 + batch_size = 100 # Fetch more to account for sports filtering + max_iterations = 10 # Safety limit to prevent infinite loops + + try: + iteration = 0 + while len(trending_markets) < limit and iteration < max_iterations: + iteration += 1 + + # Fetch active markets sorted by volume + params = { + "active": True, + "closed": False, + "archived": False, + "limit": batch_size, + "offset": offset, + "order": "volume24hr", + "ascending": False, + "enableOrderBook": True, # Only markets with CLOB enabled + } + + response = self._client.get(self.markets_endpoint, params=params) + response.raise_for_status() + + data = response.json() + if not data: + break # No more markets + + filtered_counts = {"sports": 0, "short_term_price": 0, "weather": 0} + for market_data in data: + reason = self._should_filter_market(market_data) + if reason: + filtered_counts[reason] = filtered_counts.get(reason, 0) + 1 + continue + + market = self._parse_market(market_data) + if market: + trending_market = TrendingMarket( + market=market, + volume_24hr=market.volume_24hr, + liquidity=market.liquidity, + rank=len(trending_markets) + 1, + ) + if trending_market.is_valid_for_monitoring: + trending_markets.append(trending_market) + + if len(trending_markets) >= limit: + break + + total_filtered = sum(filtered_counts.values()) + if total_filtered: + parts = [f"{k}={v}" for k, v in filtered_counts.items() if v > 0] + logger.debug( + f"Batch {iteration}: fetched {len(data)}, " + f"filtered {total_filtered} ({', '.join(parts)}), " + f"kept: {len(trending_markets)}" + ) + else: + logger.debug( + f"Batch {iteration}: fetched {len(data)}, " + f"kept: {len(trending_markets)}" + ) + + if len(data) < batch_size: + break # No more markets available + + offset += batch_size + + logger.info( + f"Fetched {len(trending_markets)} trending markets " + f"(filtered: sports, short-term price, weather)" + ) + return trending_markets + + except httpx.HTTPError as e: + logger.error(f"HTTP error fetching trending markets: {e}") + return trending_markets # Return what we have so far + except Exception as e: + logger.error(f"Error fetching trending markets: {e}") + return trending_markets + + # Keywords that identify token launch / crypto project markets + TOKEN_LAUNCH_KEYWORDS = [ + "fdv", "market cap (fdv)", "launch a token", "tge", + "listing", "airdrop", "public sale", + ] + + def _is_token_launch_market(self, market_data: dict) -> bool: + """Check if a market is related to token launches / crypto projects.""" + question = (market_data.get("question") or "").lower() + return any(kw in question for kw in self.TOKEN_LAUNCH_KEYWORDS) + + def get_token_launch_markets(self, max_scan: int = 2000) -> List[TrendingMarket]: + """ + Scan active markets for token launch / crypto project markets + that may not be in the top trending list. + + Returns: + List of TrendingMarket objects for token launch markets. + """ + token_markets = [] + offset = 0 + batch_size = 100 + seen_ids = set() + + try: + while offset < max_scan: + params = { + "active": True, "closed": False, "archived": False, + "limit": batch_size, "offset": offset, + "order": "volume24hr", "ascending": False, + "enableOrderBook": True, + } + response = self._client.get(self.markets_endpoint, params=params) + response.raise_for_status() + data = response.json() + if not data: + break + + for market_data in data: + if not self._is_token_launch_market(market_data): + continue + + market = self._parse_market(market_data) + if market and market.id not in seen_ids: + seen_ids.add(market.id) + tm = TrendingMarket( + market=market, + volume_24hr=market.volume_24hr, + liquidity=market.liquidity, + ) + if tm.is_valid_for_monitoring: + token_markets.append(tm) + + if len(data) < batch_size: + break + offset += batch_size + + logger.info(f"Found {len(token_markets)} token launch markets") + return token_markets + + except Exception as e: + logger.error(f"Error fetching token launch markets: {e}") + return token_markets + + def get_niche_markets( + self, + limit: int = 50, + min_volume_24hr: float = 5_000, + max_volume_24hr: float = 500_000, + offset_start: int = 200, + max_scan: int = 1500, + ) -> List[TrendingMarket]: + """ + Fetch niche markets (lower volume) that may have higher information + asymmetry value. Scans markets ranked beyond the top trending list. + + Args: + limit: Max number of niche markets to return + min_volume_24hr: Minimum 24h volume (filter out dead markets) + max_volume_24hr: Maximum 24h volume (filter out large/macro markets) + offset_start: Start scanning from this rank + max_scan: Stop scanning after this offset + + Returns: + List of TrendingMarket objects for niche markets. + """ + niche_markets = [] + offset = offset_start + batch_size = 100 + + try: + while offset < max_scan and len(niche_markets) < limit: + params = { + "active": True, "closed": False, "archived": False, + "limit": batch_size, "offset": offset, + "order": "volume24hr", "ascending": False, + "enableOrderBook": True, + } + response = self._client.get(self.markets_endpoint, params=params) + response.raise_for_status() + data = response.json() + if not data: + break + + for market_data in data: + vol = float(market_data.get("volume24hr", 0) or 0) + + # Volume filter: not too small (dead), not too large (macro) + if vol < min_volume_24hr or vol > max_volume_24hr: + continue + + # Apply standard filters (sports, weather, short-term price) + if self._should_filter_market(market_data): + continue + + market = self._parse_market(market_data) + if market: + tm = TrendingMarket( + market=market, + volume_24hr=market.volume_24hr, + liquidity=market.liquidity, + ) + if tm.is_valid_for_monitoring: + niche_markets.append(tm) + if len(niche_markets) >= limit: + break + + if len(data) < batch_size: + break + offset += batch_size + + logger.info( + f"Found {len(niche_markets)} niche markets " + f"(volume ${min_volume_24hr:,.0f}-${max_volume_24hr:,.0f})" + ) + return niche_markets + + except Exception as e: + logger.error(f"Error fetching niche markets: {e}") + return niche_markets + + def get_tiered_markets(self) -> dict[str, list[TrendingMarket]]: + """ + Fetch ALL active markets and classify into 3 tiers by 24h volume. + + Returns dict with keys "tier1", "tier2", "tier3", each a list of TrendingMarket. + Mirrors options flow's "passive receive all signals" approach: + scan everything, filter later. + """ + settings = self.settings + all_markets = self.get_all_current_markets() + + tiers: dict[str, list[TrendingMarket]] = {"tier1": [], "tier2": [], "tier3": []} + + for market in all_markets: + # Apply standard filters + raw = { + "question": market.question, + "description": market.description, + "slug": market.slug, + } + if self._should_filter_market(raw): + continue + + if not market.clob_token_ids or not market.active or market.closed: + continue + + vol = market.volume_24hr + + tm = TrendingMarket( + market=market, + volume_24hr=vol, + liquidity=market.liquidity, + ) + + if vol >= settings.tier1_volume_min: + tiers["tier1"].append(tm) + elif vol >= settings.tier2_volume_min: + tiers["tier2"].append(tm) + elif vol >= settings.tier3_volume_min: + tiers["tier3"].append(tm) + # vol < tier3_volume_min → dead market, skip + + # Sort each tier by volume descending + for tier in tiers.values(): + tier.sort(key=lambda t: t.volume_24hr, reverse=True) + + logger.info( + f"Tiered markets: Tier1={len(tiers['tier1'])} (>{settings.tier1_volume_min/1000:.0f}K), " + f"Tier2={len(tiers['tier2'])} (>{settings.tier2_volume_min/1000:.0f}K), " + f"Tier3={len(tiers['tier3'])} (>{settings.tier3_volume_min/1000:.0f}K)" + ) + return tiers + + def get_market_by_id(self, market_id: str) -> Optional[Market]: + """ + Fetch a single market by ID. + + Args: + market_id: The market ID + + Returns: + Market object or None + """ + try: + url = f"{self.markets_endpoint}/{market_id}" + response = self._client.get(url) + response.raise_for_status() + + data = response.json() + return self._parse_market(data) + + except httpx.HTTPError as e: + logger.error(f"HTTP error fetching market {market_id}: {e}") + return None + except Exception as e: + logger.error(f"Error fetching market {market_id}: {e}") + return None + + def get_market_by_condition_id(self, condition_id: str) -> Optional[Market]: + """ + Fetch a market by condition ID. + + Args: + condition_id: The condition ID + + Returns: + Market object or None + """ + try: + params = {"conditionId": condition_id} + response = self._client.get(self.markets_endpoint, params=params) + response.raise_for_status() + + data = response.json() + if data and len(data) > 0: + return self._parse_market(data[0]) + return None + + except httpx.HTTPError as e: + logger.error(f"HTTP error fetching market by condition {condition_id}: {e}") + return None + except Exception as e: + logger.error(f"Error fetching market by condition {condition_id}: {e}") + return None + + def get_all_current_markets(self, batch_size: int = 100) -> List[Market]: + """ + Fetch all current active markets (paginated). + + Args: + batch_size: Number of markets per request + + Returns: + List of all active Market objects + """ + all_markets = [] + offset = 0 + + while True: + try: + params = { + "active": True, + "closed": False, + "archived": False, + "limit": batch_size, + "offset": offset, + "enableOrderBook": True, + } + + response = self._client.get(self.markets_endpoint, params=params) + response.raise_for_status() + + data = response.json() + if not data: + break + + for market_data in data: + market = self._parse_market(market_data) + if market: + all_markets.append(market) + + if len(data) < batch_size: + break + + offset += batch_size + + except Exception as e: + error_str = str(e) + if "422" in error_str: + logger.debug(f"Reached end of pagination at offset {offset}") + else: + logger.error(f"Error fetching markets at offset {offset}: {e}") + break + + logger.info(f"Fetched {len(all_markets)} total active markets") + return all_markets \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/src/services/polygon.py b/src/services/polygon.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e808ff0 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/services/polygon.py @@ -0,0 +1,157 @@ +"""Polygon.io API service for stocks, forex, and commodities market data.""" +import logging +from typing import Optional + +import httpx +from src.utils.http import get_client + +logger = logging.getLogger(__name__) + +POLYGON_API = "https://api.polygon.io" + + +class PolygonService: + """ + Polygon.io API client for financial market data. + + Covers: stocks, options, forex, crypto, indices, commodities futures. + """ + + def __init__(self, api_key: str): + self.api_key = api_key + self._client = get_client(timeout=15.0) + + def is_available(self) -> bool: + return bool(self.api_key and self.api_key.strip()) + + def _get(self, path: str, params: Optional[dict] = None) -> dict: + """Make authenticated GET request.""" + params = params or {} + params["apiKey"] = self.api_key + resp = self._client.get(f"{POLYGON_API}{path}", params=params) + resp.raise_for_status() + return resp.json() + + def get_ticker_snapshot(self, ticker: str) -> str: + """ + Get previous day close + recent daily bars for a ticker. + + Args: + ticker: Ticker symbol (AAPL, TSLA, GS, SPY, QQQ, GLD, USO) + + Returns: + Formatted price and market data report. + """ + t = ticker.strip().upper() + + try: + # Previous close (free tier) + prev_data = self._get(f"/v2/aggs/ticker/{t}/prev") + results = prev_data.get("results", []) + + if not results: + return f"No data found for '{ticker}' on Polygon.io." + + bar = results[0] + close = bar.get("c", 0) + open_p = bar.get("o", 0) + high = bar.get("h", 0) + low = bar.get("l", 0) + volume = bar.get("v", 0) + vwap = bar.get("vw", 0) + + change = close - open_p if open_p else 0 + change_pct = (change / open_p * 100) if open_p else 0 + + lines = [ + f"--- {t} Last Trading Day (Polygon.io) ---", + f"Close: ${close:,.2f}", + f"Open: ${open_p:,.2f}", + f"High: ${high:,.2f}", + f"Low: ${low:,.2f}", + f"Change: {change:+.2f} ({change_pct:+.2f}%)", + ] + if vwap: + lines.append(f"VWAP: ${vwap:,.2f}") + if volume: + lines.append(f"Volume: {volume:,.0f}") + + # Also try to get 5-day bars for trend + try: + from datetime import date, timedelta + end = date.today() + start = end - timedelta(days=10) + range_data = self._get( + f"/v2/aggs/ticker/{t}/range/1/day/{start.isoformat()}/{end.isoformat()}", + params={"adjusted": "true", "sort": "asc", "limit": 10}, + ) + bars = range_data.get("results", []) + if len(bars) >= 2: + first_close = bars[0].get("c", 0) + last_close = bars[-1].get("c", 0) + if first_close: + week_change = ((last_close - first_close) / first_close) * 100 + lines.append(f"~{len(bars)}-day Change: {week_change:+.2f}%") + except Exception: + pass # trend data is optional + + lines.append("---") + return "\n".join(lines) + + except httpx.HTTPStatusError as e: + if e.response.status_code == 404: + return f"Ticker '{ticker}' not found on Polygon.io." + return f"Polygon API error for '{ticker}': HTTP {e.response.status_code}" + except Exception as e: + msg = f"Polygon query failed for '{ticker}': {e}" + logger.error(msg) + return msg + + def get_market_news(self, ticker: str, limit: int = 5) -> str: + """ + Get recent news articles for a ticker. + + Args: + ticker: Stock/crypto ticker (e.g. AAPL, TSLA, GS) + limit: Number of articles (1-10) + + Returns: + Formatted news report. + """ + t = ticker.strip().upper() + limit = max(1, min(limit, 10)) + + try: + data = self._get("/v2/reference/news", params={ + "ticker": t, + "limit": limit, + "order": "desc", + "sort": "published_utc", + }) + + results = data.get("results", []) + if not results: + return f"No recent news found for '{ticker}'." + + lines = [f"--- {t} Recent News (Polygon.io) ---"] + for i, article in enumerate(results, 1): + title = article.get("title", "No title") + published = article.get("published_utc", "")[:19] + source = article.get("publisher", {}).get("name", "Unknown") + desc = article.get("description", "")[:200] + if len(article.get("description", "")) > 200: + desc += "..." + + lines.append(f"{i}. **{title}**") + lines.append(f" Source: {source} | {published}") + if desc: + lines.append(f" {desc}") + lines.append("") + + lines.append("---") + return "\n".join(lines) + + except Exception as e: + msg = f"Polygon news query failed for '{ticker}': {e}" + logger.error(msg) + return msg \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/src/services/price_monitor.py b/src/services/price_monitor.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2cd1947 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/services/price_monitor.py @@ -0,0 +1,428 @@ +"""Price monitoring service - monitors ALL active market prices for volatility.""" +import asyncio +import json +import logging +from collections import deque +from dataclasses import dataclass, field +from datetime import datetime +from pathlib import Path +from typing import Awaitable, Callable, Dict, List, Optional + +import httpx + +from src.utils.http import get_async_client + +logger = logging.getLogger(__name__) + +# Gamma API for fetching market prices +GAMMA_API_URL = "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets" + +# Storage directory for price volatility alerts +VOLATILITY_DIR = Path(__file__).parent.parent.parent / "price_volatility" + + +@dataclass +class PricePoint: + """A single price observation.""" + timestamp: int + yes_price: float + + +@dataclass +class VolatilityAlert: + """A price volatility alert.""" + market_id: str + market_question: str + start_timestamp: int + end_timestamp: int + start_price: float + end_price: float + price_change: float + price_change_percent: float + direction: str # "UP" or "DOWN" + window_seconds: int + detected_at: str = field(default_factory=lambda: datetime.utcnow().isoformat()) + + def to_dict(self) -> dict: + return { + "market_id": self.market_id, + "market_question": self.market_question, + "start_timestamp": self.start_timestamp, + "end_timestamp": self.end_timestamp, + "start_price": self.start_price, + "end_price": self.end_price, + "price_change": self.price_change, + "price_change_percent": self.price_change_percent, + "direction": self.direction, + "window_seconds": self.window_seconds, + "detected_at": self.detected_at, + } + + +class PriceMonitor: + """ + Monitors ALL active market prices for short-term volatility. + + Tracks Yes prices for all active markets and alerts when + price changes exceed threshold within the time window. + """ + + # Default configuration + DEFAULT_WINDOW_SECONDS = 300 # 5 minutes + DEFAULT_THRESHOLD = 0.10 # 10% + DEFAULT_MAX_HISTORY_SECONDS = 3600 # Keep 1 hour of history + DEFAULT_POLL_INTERVAL = 30 # Poll all markets every 30 seconds + + def __init__( + self, + window_seconds: int = DEFAULT_WINDOW_SECONDS, + threshold: float = DEFAULT_THRESHOLD, + max_history_seconds: int = DEFAULT_MAX_HISTORY_SECONDS, + poll_interval: int = DEFAULT_POLL_INTERVAL, + on_volatility_detected: Optional[Callable[["VolatilityAlert"], Awaitable[None]]] = None, + ): + """ + Initialize the price monitor. + + Args: + window_seconds: Time window for volatility detection (default 5 minutes) + threshold: Price change threshold to trigger alert (default 10%) + max_history_seconds: How long to keep price history (default 1 hour) + poll_interval: Interval for polling all markets (default 30 seconds) + on_volatility_detected: Async callback when volatility is detected + """ + self.window_seconds = window_seconds + self.threshold = threshold + self.max_history_seconds = max_history_seconds + self.poll_interval = poll_interval + + # Callback for volatility detection + self._on_volatility_detected = on_volatility_detected + + # Price history per market: market_id -> deque of PricePoints + self._price_history: Dict[str, deque] = {} + + # Market info cache: market_id -> question + self._market_info: Dict[str, str] = {} + + # Track recent alerts to avoid duplicates (market_id -> last_alert_timestamp) + self._recent_alerts: Dict[str, int] = {} + + # Minimum interval between alerts for same market (seconds) + self._alert_cooldown = 3600 # 1 hour (match window_seconds) + + # HTTP client for API calls + self._client: Optional[httpx.AsyncClient] = None + + # Control flag + self._running = False + + # Ensure storage directory exists + VOLATILITY_DIR.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + + def record_price(self, market_id: str, market_question: str, yes_price: float) -> Optional[VolatilityAlert]: + """ + Record a price observation and check for volatility. + + Args: + market_id: The market ID + market_question: The market question text + yes_price: Current Yes price (0-1) + + Returns: + VolatilityAlert if threshold exceeded, None otherwise + """ + now = int(datetime.utcnow().timestamp()) + + # Initialize history for new markets + if market_id not in self._price_history: + self._price_history[market_id] = deque() + + history = self._price_history[market_id] + + # Add new price point + history.append(PricePoint(timestamp=now, yes_price=yes_price)) + + # Clean up old entries + cutoff = now - self.max_history_seconds + while history and history[0].timestamp < cutoff: + history.popleft() + + # Check for volatility + alert = self._check_volatility(market_id, market_question, now) + + if alert: + # Check cooldown + last_alert = self._recent_alerts.get(market_id, 0) + if now - last_alert < self._alert_cooldown: + logger.debug(f"Alert suppressed for {market_id} (cooldown)") + return None + + # Record alert + self._recent_alerts[market_id] = now + self._store_alert(alert) + + # Log warning + logger.warning( + f"🚨 PRICE VOLATILITY: {market_question[:50]}... " + f"{alert.direction} {abs(alert.price_change_percent):.1%} " + f"({alert.start_price:.2%} → {alert.end_price:.2%}) " + f"in {alert.window_seconds // 60}min" + ) + + return alert + + return None + + def _check_volatility( + self, market_id: str, market_question: str, current_time: int + ) -> Optional[VolatilityAlert]: + """ + Check if price volatility exceeds threshold within the time window. + + Args: + market_id: The market ID + market_question: The market question text + current_time: Current timestamp + + Returns: + VolatilityAlert if threshold exceeded, None otherwise + """ + history = self._price_history.get(market_id) + if not history or len(history) < 2: + return None + + current_price = history[-1].yes_price + window_start = current_time - self.window_seconds + + # Find the oldest price within the window + oldest_in_window = None + for point in history: + if point.timestamp >= window_start: + oldest_in_window = point + break + + if oldest_in_window is None: + return None + + # Calculate price change + price_change = current_price - oldest_in_window.yes_price + price_change_abs = abs(price_change) + + if price_change_abs < self.threshold: + return None + + # Create alert + return VolatilityAlert( + market_id=market_id, + market_question=market_question, + start_timestamp=oldest_in_window.timestamp, + end_timestamp=current_time, + start_price=oldest_in_window.yes_price, + end_price=current_price, + price_change=price_change, + price_change_percent=price_change, + direction="UP" if price_change > 0 else "DOWN", + window_seconds=current_time - oldest_in_window.timestamp, + ) + + def _store_alert(self, alert: VolatilityAlert) -> None: + """ + Store a volatility alert to file. + + Args: + alert: The alert to store + """ + alerts_file = VOLATILITY_DIR / "volatility_alerts.json" + + # Load existing alerts + existing_alerts = [] + if alerts_file.exists(): + try: + with open(alerts_file, 'r', encoding='utf-8') as f: + existing_alerts = json.load(f) + except Exception as e: + logger.error(f"Failed to load existing alerts: {e}") + + # Add new alert + existing_alerts.append(alert.to_dict()) + + # Save back + try: + with open(alerts_file, 'w', encoding='utf-8') as f: + json.dump(existing_alerts, f, ensure_ascii=False, indent=2) + except Exception as e: + logger.error(f"Failed to store volatility alert: {e}") + + def get_price_history(self, market_id: str) -> List[dict]: + """ + Get price history for a market. + + Args: + market_id: The market ID + + Returns: + List of price points as dicts + """ + history = self._price_history.get(market_id, deque()) + return [{"timestamp": p.timestamp, "yes_price": p.yes_price} for p in history] + + def get_all_alerts(self) -> List[dict]: + """ + Get all stored volatility alerts. + + Returns: + List of alerts as dicts + """ + alerts_file = VOLATILITY_DIR / "volatility_alerts.json" + + if not alerts_file.exists(): + return [] + + try: + with open(alerts_file, 'r', encoding='utf-8') as f: + return json.load(f) + except Exception as e: + logger.error(f"Failed to load alerts: {e}") + return [] + + def clear_history(self, market_id: Optional[str] = None) -> None: + """ + Clear price history. + + Args: + market_id: If provided, clear only this market's history. Otherwise clear all. + """ + if market_id: + if market_id in self._price_history: + del self._price_history[market_id] + logger.info(f"Cleared price history for {market_id}") + else: + self._price_history.clear() + logger.info("Cleared all price history") + + async def _fetch_all_active_markets(self) -> List[dict]: + """ + Fetch all active markets from Gamma API. + + Returns: + List of market data dicts with id, question, and outcomePrices + """ + all_markets = [] + offset = 0 + batch_size = 100 + + try: + while True: + params = { + "active": True, + "closed": False, + "archived": False, + "limit": batch_size, + "offset": offset, + "enableOrderBook": True, + } + + response = await self._client.get(GAMMA_API_URL, params=params) + response.raise_for_status() + + data = response.json() + if not data: + break + + for market in data: + market_id = str(market.get("id", "")) + question = market.get("question", "") + outcome_prices = market.get("outcomePrices", []) + + if isinstance(outcome_prices, str): + outcome_prices = json.loads(outcome_prices) + + if market_id and outcome_prices: + all_markets.append({ + "id": market_id, + "question": question, + "yes_price": float(outcome_prices[0]) if outcome_prices else None, + }) + # Cache market info + self._market_info[market_id] = question + + if len(data) < batch_size: + break + + offset += batch_size + + except Exception as e: + logger.error(f"Error fetching active markets: {e}") + + return all_markets + + async def _poll_all_prices(self) -> List[VolatilityAlert]: + """ + Poll prices for all active markets and check for volatility. + + Returns: + List of volatility alerts triggered + """ + alerts = [] + + markets = await self._fetch_all_active_markets() + logger.debug(f"Polling prices for {len(markets)} active markets") + + for market in markets: + market_id = market["id"] + question = market["question"] + yes_price = market.get("yes_price") + + if yes_price is not None: + alert = self.record_price(market_id, question, yes_price) + if alert: + alerts.append(alert) + + return alerts + + async def run(self) -> None: + """ + Start the price monitoring loop. + + Continuously polls all active markets at the configured interval. + """ + self._running = True + self._client = get_async_client(timeout=60.0) + + logger.info( + f"Starting price monitor (interval: {self.poll_interval}s, " + f"window: {self.window_seconds}s, threshold: {self.threshold:.0%})" + ) + + try: + while self._running: + try: + alerts = await self._poll_all_prices() + if alerts: + logger.info(f"Detected {len(alerts)} volatility alerts") + + # Call callback for each alert + if self._on_volatility_detected: + for alert in alerts: + try: + await self._on_volatility_detected(alert) + except Exception as e: + logger.error(f"Error in volatility callback: {e}") + + except Exception as e: + logger.error(f"Error in price monitoring loop: {e}") + + await asyncio.sleep(self.poll_interval) + finally: + await self._client.aclose() + self._client = None + + def stop(self) -> None: + """Stop the price monitoring loop.""" + self._running = False + logger.info("Price monitor stopping...") + + def get_monitored_market_count(self) -> int: + """Get the number of markets currently being monitored.""" + return len(self._price_history) \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/src/services/resolution_tracker.py b/src/services/resolution_tracker.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..70dcf8d --- /dev/null +++ b/src/services/resolution_tracker.py @@ -0,0 +1,115 @@ +"""Resolution tracker - checks if markets with signals have resolved and updates correctness.""" +import asyncio +import logging +from datetime import datetime +from typing import Optional + +from src.db.database import SignalDatabase +from src.services.market_fetcher import MarketFetcher + +logger = logging.getLogger(__name__) + + +class ResolutionTracker: + """Tracks market resolutions and computes signal correctness.""" + + def __init__(self, db: SignalDatabase): + self.db = db + self.market_fetcher = MarketFetcher() + + def _determine_resolved_outcome(self, market) -> Optional[str]: + """ + Determine the resolved outcome from a market. + + A market is considered resolved if closed==True and one outcome price >= 0.99. + + Returns: + The winning outcome string (e.g. "Yes" or "No"), or None if not resolved. + """ + if not market.closed: + return None + + if not market.outcomes or not market.outcome_prices: + return None + + for outcome, price in zip(market.outcomes, market.outcome_prices): + if price >= 0.99: + return outcome + + return None + + def _is_past_end_date(self, market) -> bool: + """Check if a market's end_date has passed.""" + if not market.end_date: + return True # No end date, always check + try: + end_dt = datetime.fromisoformat(market.end_date.replace("Z", "+00:00")) + return datetime.utcnow().replace(tzinfo=end_dt.tzinfo) >= end_dt + except (ValueError, TypeError): + return True + + async def check_all(self) -> dict: + """ + Check all unresolved markets for resolution. + + Returns: + Summary dict with counts. + """ + unresolved_ids = self.db.get_unresolved_market_ids() + if not unresolved_ids: + logger.debug("No unresolved markets to check") + return {"checked": 0, "resolved": 0, "signals_updated": 0} + + logger.info(f"Checking {len(unresolved_ids)} unresolved markets for resolution") + + checked = 0 + resolved = 0 + signals_updated = 0 + + for market_id in unresolved_ids: + try: + market = self.market_fetcher.get_market_by_id(market_id) + if not market: + logger.debug(f"Market {market_id} not found on API") + checked += 1 + await asyncio.sleep(0.5) + continue + + # Optimization: skip markets whose end_date hasn't passed yet + if not self._is_past_end_date(market): + checked += 1 + await asyncio.sleep(0.5) + continue + + outcome = self._determine_resolved_outcome(market) + if outcome: + updated = self.db.mark_market_resolved( + market_id=market_id, + resolved_outcome=outcome, + resolved_at=datetime.utcnow(), + ) + resolved += 1 + signals_updated += updated + logger.info( + f"Market resolved: {market.question[:50]}... " + f"outcome={outcome}, {updated} signals updated" + ) + + checked += 1 + await asyncio.sleep(0.5) # Rate limiting + + except Exception as e: + logger.error(f"Error checking market {market_id}: {e}") + checked += 1 + await asyncio.sleep(0.5) + + result = { + "checked": checked, + "resolved": resolved, + "signals_updated": signals_updated, + } + logger.info( + f"Resolution check complete: {checked} checked, " + f"{resolved} resolved, {signals_updated} signals updated" + ) + return result diff --git a/src/services/rtds_client.py b/src/services/rtds_client.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..334adcd --- /dev/null +++ b/src/services/rtds_client.py @@ -0,0 +1,237 @@ +""" +RTDS (Real-Time Data Socket) client for Polymarket. + +Connects to wss://ws-live-data.polymarket.com and subscribes to +activity/trades for real-time trade data across ALL markets. + +Replaces the per-market HTTP polling approach with a single persistent +WebSocket connection — zero missed trades, sub-second latency. +""" +import asyncio +import json +import logging +import time +from typing import Awaitable, Callable, Optional + +import websockets +from websockets.asyncio.client import ClientConnection + +from src.config.settings import get_settings +from src.models.trade import TradeActivity + +logger = logging.getLogger(__name__) + +RTDS_URI = "wss://ws-live-data.polymarket.com" +HEARTBEAT_INTERVAL = 5 # seconds +RECONNECT_DELAYS = [1, 2, 5, 10, 30, 60] # backoff schedule + + +class RTDSClient: + """ + Persistent WebSocket client for Polymarket RTDS trade stream. + + Features: + - Auto-reconnect with exponential backoff + - Heartbeat (PING every 5s) + - Parses raw messages into TradeActivity objects + - Fires an async callback for each trade + """ + + def __init__( + self, + on_trade: Optional[Callable[[TradeActivity], Awaitable[None]]] = None, + proxy: Optional[str] = None, + ): + self._on_trade = on_trade + self._proxy = proxy + self._running = False + self._ws: Optional[ClientConnection] = None + self._trade_count = 0 + self._connect_count = 0 + + # ================================================================ + # Message parsing + # ================================================================ + + @staticmethod + def _parse_trade(payload: dict) -> Optional[TradeActivity]: + """Convert an RTDS trade payload into a TradeActivity.""" + try: + side = (payload.get("side") or "").upper() + size = float(payload.get("size", 0) or 0) + price = float(payload.get("price", 0) or 0) + usdc_size = size * price + + outcome = payload.get("outcome", "Yes") + outcome_index = int(payload.get("outcomeIndex", 0 if outcome == "Yes" else 1)) + + ts = int(payload.get("timestamp", 0) or 0) + if ts == 0: + ts = int(time.time()) + + return TradeActivity( + transaction_hash=payload.get("transactionHash", ""), + timestamp=ts, + condition_id=payload.get("conditionId", ""), + asset=payload.get("asset", ""), + side=side, + size=size, + usdc_size=usdc_size, + price=price, + outcome=outcome, + outcome_index=outcome_index, + title=payload.get("title", ""), + slug=payload.get("slug"), + event_slug=payload.get("eventSlug"), + proxy_wallet=payload.get("proxyWallet"), + name=payload.get("name") or payload.get("pseudonym"), + ) + except Exception as e: + logger.debug(f"Failed to parse RTDS trade: {e}") + return None + + # ================================================================ + # Connection lifecycle + # ================================================================ + + async def _heartbeat(self, ws: ClientConnection) -> None: + """Send PING every HEARTBEAT_INTERVAL seconds.""" + try: + while True: + await asyncio.sleep(HEARTBEAT_INTERVAL) + await ws.send("PING") + except (asyncio.CancelledError, websockets.ConnectionClosed): + pass + + async def _subscribe(self, ws: ClientConnection) -> None: + """Subscribe to the activity/trades stream.""" + msg = { + "action": "subscribe", + "subscriptions": [ + {"topic": "activity", "type": "trades", "filters": ""} + ], + } + await ws.send(json.dumps(msg)) + logger.info("Subscribed to RTDS activity/trades") + + async def _consume(self, ws: ClientConnection) -> None: + """Read messages from the WebSocket and dispatch trades.""" + async for raw in ws: + if not self._running: + break + + if raw == "PONG" or not raw.strip(): + continue + + try: + msg = json.loads(raw) + except json.JSONDecodeError: + continue + + if msg.get("topic") != "activity" or msg.get("type") != "trades": + continue + + payload = msg.get("payload") + if not payload: + continue + + activity = self._parse_trade(payload) + if not activity: + continue + + self._trade_count += 1 + + if self._on_trade: + try: + await self._on_trade(activity) + except Exception as e: + logger.error(f"Error in trade callback: {e}") + + async def _connect_and_run(self) -> None: + """Single connection attempt: connect → subscribe → consume.""" + self._connect_count += 1 + logger.info( + f"Connecting to RTDS ({self._connect_count})... " + f"(total trades so far: {self._trade_count})" + ) + + connect_kwargs = {"ping_interval": None} + if self._proxy: + connect_kwargs["proxy"] = self._proxy + logger.info(f"RTDS using proxy: {self._proxy}") + + async with websockets.connect(RTDS_URI, **connect_kwargs) as ws: + self._ws = ws + logger.info("RTDS connected") + + await self._subscribe(ws) + + hb_task = asyncio.create_task(self._heartbeat(ws)) + try: + await self._consume(ws) + finally: + hb_task.cancel() + self._ws = None + + # ================================================================ + # Public API + # ================================================================ + + async def run(self) -> None: + """ + Start the RTDS client with auto-reconnect. + + Runs forever until stop() is called. + """ + self._running = True + consecutive_failures = 0 + + while self._running: + try: + await self._connect_and_run() + # Clean disconnect (stop() called) — exit + if not self._running: + break + # Unexpected clean close — reconnect immediately + consecutive_failures = 0 + except ( + websockets.ConnectionClosed, + websockets.InvalidURI, + websockets.InvalidHandshake, + OSError, + ConnectionError, + ) as e: + if not self._running: + break + delay_idx = min(consecutive_failures, len(RECONNECT_DELAYS) - 1) + delay = RECONNECT_DELAYS[delay_idx] + consecutive_failures += 1 + logger.warning( + f"RTDS disconnected: {type(e).__name__}: {e}. " + f"Reconnecting in {delay}s (attempt {consecutive_failures})" + ) + await asyncio.sleep(delay) + except Exception as e: + if not self._running: + break + logger.error(f"Unexpected RTDS error: {e}. Reconnecting in 10s") + await asyncio.sleep(10) + + logger.info(f"RTDS client stopped (total trades received: {self._trade_count})") + + def stop(self) -> None: + """Stop the RTDS client.""" + self._running = False + if self._ws: + asyncio.ensure_future(self._ws.close()) + logger.info("RTDS client stopping...") + + @property + def trade_count(self) -> int: + """Total number of trades received since start.""" + return self._trade_count + + @property + def is_connected(self) -> bool: + """Whether the WebSocket is currently connected.""" + return self._ws is not None and self._ws.state.name == "OPEN" \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/src/services/serper_search.py b/src/services/serper_search.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..85307bb --- /dev/null +++ b/src/services/serper_search.py @@ -0,0 +1,96 @@ +"""Serper.dev web search service.""" +import logging +from typing import Optional + +import httpx +from src.utils.http import get_client + +logger = logging.getLogger(__name__) + +SERPER_SEARCH_URL = "https://google.serper.dev/search" + + +class SerperSearchService: + """Web search service using Serper.dev API (Google Search results).""" + + def __init__(self, api_key: Optional[str] = None): + self.api_key = api_key or "" + if not self.api_key: + logger.debug("SERPER_API_KEY not set. Serper search will be disabled.") + + def is_available(self) -> bool: + return bool(self.api_key and self.api_key.strip()) + + def search(self, query: str, max_results: int = 5) -> str: + if not self.is_available(): + return "Web search unavailable: SERPER_API_KEY not configured." + + headers = { + "X-API-KEY": self.api_key, + "Content-Type": "application/json", + } + payload = {"q": query, "num": max_results} + + try: + with get_client(timeout=20) as client: + response = client.post(SERPER_SEARCH_URL, json=payload, headers=headers) + + if response.status_code != 200: + logger.error(f"Serper API error: {response.status_code} - {response.text[:200]}") + return f"Web search API Error: {response.status_code}" + + data = response.json() + + # Format results + report = [f"--- Web Search Results for '{query}' ---"] + + # Knowledge graph answer + kg = data.get("knowledgeGraph") + if kg: + title = kg.get("title", "") + desc = kg.get("description", "") + if title and desc: + report.append(f"**Summary**: {title} — {desc}\n") + + # Answer box + answer_box = data.get("answerBox") + if answer_box: + answer = answer_box.get("answer") or answer_box.get("snippet", "") + if answer: + report.append(f"**Summary**: {answer}\n") + + # Organic results + organic = data.get("organic", []) + if not organic: + return f"No web search results found for '{query}'." + + for idx, item in enumerate(organic[:max_results], 1): + title = item.get("title", "No title") + url = item.get("link", "") + snippet = item.get("snippet", "") + report.append(f"{idx}. **{title}**") + report.append(f" Source: {url}") + report.append(f" {snippet}") + report.append("") + + report.append("-------------------------------------------") + return "\n".join(report) + + except Exception as e: + logger.error(f"Serper search failed: {e}") + return f"Web search failed: {str(e)}" + + def search_for_market(self, market_question: str, max_results: int = 5) -> str: + if not self.is_available(): + return "Web search unavailable: SERPER_API_KEY not configured." + + query = market_question[:200] + result = self.search(query, max_results=max_results) + + # Propagate errors so the unified WebSearchService can fall back + if "API Error" in result or "search failed" in result: + return result + + if "No web search results" not in result and "Error" not in result: + return "## 🔍 Web Search Results (News & Analysis)\n" + result + return f"No relevant web results found for: {market_question[:50]}..." \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/src/services/stats_engine.py b/src/services/stats_engine.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5c74b6b --- /dev/null +++ b/src/services/stats_engine.py @@ -0,0 +1,90 @@ +"""Stats engine - computes signal performance statistics from the database.""" +import logging +from typing import List + +from src.db.database import SignalDatabase +from src.models.anomaly_signal import AnomalySignal + +logger = logging.getLogger(__name__) + + +class StatsEngine: + """Computes signal performance statistics.""" + + def __init__(self, db: SignalDatabase): + self.db = db + + def get_overview(self) -> dict: + """ + Get overall signal performance stats. + + Returns: + Dict with total_signals, resolved, correct, win_rate, avg_roi, total_theoretical_pnl. + """ + return self.db.get_stats() + + def get_stats_by_likelihood_tier(self) -> List[dict]: + """ + Get stats broken down by information_asymmetry_score tiers. + + Tiers: 0.4-0.6, 0.6-0.8, 0.8-1.0 + + Returns: + List of tier stat dicts. + """ + return self.db.get_stats_by_tier() + + def get_recent_resolved(self, limit: int = 20) -> List[AnomalySignal]: + """Get recently resolved signals.""" + return self.db.get_recent_resolved(limit) + + def get_best_worst(self, n: int = 5) -> dict: + """Get best and worst signals by ROI.""" + return self.db.get_best_worst(n) + + def format_stats_summary(self) -> str: + """ + Format a human-readable stats summary for briefings. + + Returns: + Markdown-formatted stats string. + """ + stats = self.get_overview() + tier_stats = self.get_stats_by_likelihood_tier() + + if stats["resolved"] == 0: + return "" + + lines = [ + "## Signal Performance History", + "", + f"| Metric | Value |", + f"|--------|-------|", + f"| Total Signals | {stats['total_signals']} |", + f"| Resolved | {stats['resolved']} |", + f"| Correct | {stats['correct']} |", + f"| Win Rate | **{stats['win_rate']:.1%}** |", + f"| Avg ROI | **{stats['avg_roi']:+.1%}** |", + f"| Total Theoretical PnL | **{stats['total_theoretical_pnl']:+.2f}x** |", + "", + ] + + # Tier breakdown + has_resolved_tiers = any(t["resolved"] > 0 for t in tier_stats) + if has_resolved_tiers: + lines.extend([ + "### By Signal Confidence Tier", + "", + "| Confidence Range | Signals | Resolved | Win Rate | Avg ROI |", + "|-----------------|---------|----------|----------|---------|", + ]) + for t in tier_stats: + if t["total"] > 0: + wr = f"{t['win_rate']:.0%}" if t["resolved"] > 0 else "N/A" + roi = f"{t['avg_roi']:+.1%}" if t["resolved"] > 0 else "N/A" + lines.append( + f"| {t['tier']} | {t['total']} | {t['resolved']} | {wr} | {roi} |" + ) + lines.append("") + + return "\n".join(lines) diff --git a/src/services/tavily_search.py b/src/services/tavily_search.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..41f5b1a --- /dev/null +++ b/src/services/tavily_search.py @@ -0,0 +1,141 @@ +"""Tavily web search service - replaces Google Search for whale trade verification.""" +import logging +from typing import Optional + +import httpx +from src.utils.http import get_client + +logger = logging.getLogger(__name__) + +TAVILY_SEARCH_URL = "https://api.tavily.com/search" + + +def _format_search_results(query: str, results: list[dict]) -> str: + """Format Tavily search results as a readable report.""" + report = [f"--- Web Search Results for '{query}' ---"] + for idx, item in enumerate(results, 1): + title = item.get("title", "No title") + url = item.get("url", "") + content = item.get("content", "")[:300] + if len(item.get("content", "")) > 300: + content += "..." + report.append(f"{idx}. **{title}**") + report.append(f" Source: {url}") + report.append(f" {content}") + report.append("") + report.append("-------------------------------------------") + return "\n".join(report) + + +class TavilySearchService: + """ + Web search service using Tavily API for whale trade verification. + + Replaces Google Search grounding with explicit Tavily web search, + passing results as context to the LLM. + """ + + def __init__(self, api_key: Optional[str] = None): + self.api_key = api_key or "" + if not self.api_key: + logger.warning("TAVILY_API_KEY not set. Web search will be disabled.") + + def is_available(self) -> bool: + """Check if Tavily search is available (API key is set).""" + return bool(self.api_key and self.api_key.strip()) + + def search( + self, + query: str, + max_results: int = 5, + search_depth: str = "basic", + ) -> str: + """ + Search the web using Tavily API. + + Args: + query: Search query + max_results: Number of results to return (1-10) + search_depth: "basic" for fast search, "advanced" for deeper search + + Returns: + Formatted search results report. + """ + if not self.is_available(): + return "Web search unavailable: TAVILY_API_KEY not configured." + + max_results = max(1, min(max_results, 10)) + + payload = { + "api_key": self.api_key, + "query": query, + "search_depth": search_depth, + "max_results": max_results, + "include_answer": True, + } + + try: + with get_client(timeout=20) as client: + response = client.post(TAVILY_SEARCH_URL, json=payload) + + if response.status_code != 200: + logger.error(f"Tavily API error: {response.status_code} - {response.text[:200]}") + return f"Web search API Error: {response.status_code}" + + data = response.json() + results = data.get("results", []) + + if not results: + return f"No web search results found for '{query}'." + + report_parts = [] + + # Include AI-generated answer summary if available + answer = data.get("answer") + if answer: + report_parts.append(f"**Summary**: {answer}\n") + + report_parts.append(_format_search_results(query, results)) + return "\n".join(report_parts) + + except Exception as e: + logger.error(f"Tavily search failed: {e}") + return f"Web search failed: {str(e)}" + + def search_for_market( + self, + market_question: str, + max_results: int = 5, + ) -> str: + """ + Search the web for information relevant to a prediction market. + + Performs a deeper search for market-relevant news. + + Args: + market_question: The market question to search for + max_results: Number of results per query + + Returns: + Combined search results. + """ + if not self.is_available(): + return "Web search unavailable: TAVILY_API_KEY not configured." + + results = [] + + # Search with the market question directly + query = market_question[:200] + main_result = self.search(query, max_results=max_results, search_depth="advanced") + + # Propagate errors so the unified WebSearchService can fall back + if "API Error" in main_result or "search failed" in main_result: + return main_result + + if "No web search results" not in main_result and "Error" not in main_result: + results.append("## 🔍 Web Search Results (News & Analysis)\n" + main_result) + + if not results: + return f"No relevant web results found for: {market_question[:50]}..." + + return "\n\n".join(results) \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/src/services/telegram_search.py b/src/services/telegram_search.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8acb1e9 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/services/telegram_search.py @@ -0,0 +1,191 @@ +"""Telegram search service for crypto and geopolitical channel monitoring.""" +import asyncio +import logging +from datetime import datetime, timedelta +from typing import Optional, List + +try: + import nest_asyncio + nest_asyncio.apply() +except ImportError: + pass + +logger = logging.getLogger(__name__) + +# Default public channels: crypto + geopolitics/politics +# Verified 2026-03-31: all channels return text messages with meaningful content +DEFAULT_CHANNELS = [ + # Crypto / macro + "CryptoVIPSignalTA", # crypto signals + macro news + "whale_alert_io", # on-chain whale transfers + "WatcherGuru", # crypto/macro breaking news + # Geopolitics & politics + "DDGeopolitics", # geopolitical analysis (views ~20k) + "disclosetv", # US politics, breaking news (views ~50-70k) + "realDonaldTrump", # Trump's own posts + "intelslava", # Russia/Ukraine, geopolitics (views ~50k) + "TheScrollOfBenjamin", # Middle East geopolitics + "WarMonitors", # conflict breaking news (views ~14k, active) +] + + +class TelegramSearchService: + """ + Searches crypto-relevant public Telegram channels for messages. + + Uses Telethon (MTProto API) to search public channels by keyword. + Requires a one-time auth to generate a session string. + """ + + def __init__( + self, + api_id: str = "", + api_hash: str = "", + session_string: str = "", + channels: Optional[List[str]] = None, + ): + self.api_id = api_id + self.api_hash = api_hash + self.session_string = session_string + self.channels = channels or DEFAULT_CHANNELS + self._client = None + + def is_available(self) -> bool: + """Check if Telegram search is available.""" + if not (self.api_id and self.api_hash and self.session_string): + return False + try: + import telethon # noqa: F401 + return True + except ImportError: + logger.warning("telethon not installed. Telegram search disabled.") + return False + + def _get_client(self): + """Get or create the Telethon client.""" + if self._client is None: + from telethon import TelegramClient + from telethon.sessions import StringSession + self._client = TelegramClient( + StringSession(self.session_string), + int(self.api_id), + self.api_hash, + ) + return self._client + + async def _search_channel( + self, + channel: str, + query: str, + limit: int = 5, + ) -> List[dict]: + """Search a single channel for messages matching a query.""" + from telethon.errors import ( + FloodWaitError, + ChannelPrivateError, + UsernameNotOccupiedError, + UsernameInvalidError, + ) + + results = [] + try: + client = self._get_client() + async for message in client.iter_messages( + channel, + search=query, + limit=limit, + ): + if not message.text: + continue + results.append({ + "channel": channel, + "text": message.text, + "date": message.date.strftime("%Y-%m-%d %H:%M UTC") if message.date else "", + "views": message.views or 0, + "forwards": message.forwards or 0, + }) + except FloodWaitError as e: + logger.warning(f"Telegram flood wait: {e.seconds}s for channel {channel}") + except (ChannelPrivateError, UsernameNotOccupiedError, UsernameInvalidError): + logger.debug(f"Channel {channel} not accessible, skipping") + except Exception as e: + logger.error(f"Error searching Telegram channel {channel}: {e}") + return results + + async def _search_all_channels(self, query: str, limit_per_channel: int = 5) -> List[dict]: + """Search all configured channels.""" + client = self._get_client() + async with client: + all_results = [] + for channel in self.channels: + results = await self._search_channel(channel, query, limit_per_channel) + all_results.extend(results) + # Sort by views descending + all_results.sort(key=lambda x: x["views"], reverse=True) + return all_results + + def _format_report(self, query: str, messages: List[dict]) -> str: + """Format search results as a report string.""" + if not messages: + return f"No Telegram messages found for '{query}'." + + total_views = sum(m["views"] for m in messages) + lines = [ + f"--- Telegram Search Results for '{query}' ---", + f"Total Views in Sample: {total_views:,}", + f"Channels Searched: {', '.join(self.channels)}", + "Messages:", + ] + + for idx, msg in enumerate(messages): + text_preview = msg["text"][:200] + if len(msg["text"]) > 200: + text_preview += "..." + lines.append( + f'{idx + 1}. [{msg["channel"]}] ({msg["date"]}, ' + f'👁 {msg["views"]:,}): "{text_preview}"' + ) + + lines.append("-------------------------------------------") + return "\n".join(lines) + + def search_for_market(self, query: str, limit: int = 10) -> str: + """ + Search Telegram channels for messages relevant to a market. + + Args: + query: Search query + limit: Max total messages to return + + Returns: + Formatted report string + """ + if not self.is_available(): + return "Telegram search unavailable: credentials not configured or telethon not installed." + + try: + # Calculate per-channel limit + limit_per_channel = max(3, limit // len(self.channels)) + + # Run async search — handle both sync and async calling contexts + coro = self._search_all_channels(query, limit_per_channel) + try: + loop = asyncio.get_running_loop() + # Already inside an async event loop — use a new thread + import concurrent.futures + with concurrent.futures.ThreadPoolExecutor() as pool: + messages = pool.submit( + asyncio.run, coro + ).result(timeout=30) + except RuntimeError: + # No running loop — safe to use run_until_complete + loop = asyncio.get_event_loop() + messages = loop.run_until_complete(coro) + + # Trim to total limit + messages = messages[:limit] + return self._format_report(query, messages) + + except Exception as e: + logger.error(f"Telegram search failed: {e}") + return f"Telegram search failed: {str(e)}" diff --git a/src/services/tools.py b/src/services/tools.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b29725d --- /dev/null +++ b/src/services/tools.py @@ -0,0 +1,467 @@ +""" +Tool registry for LLM function calling. + +Each tool is a callable that the LLM can invoke on demand. +Tools are registered with their OpenAI-compatible function schema +and an executor function that performs the actual work. +""" +import json +import logging +from dataclasses import dataclass +from typing import Callable, Dict, List + +from src.services.twitter_search import TwitterSearchService +from src.services.web_search import WebSearchService +from src.services.coingecko import CoinGeckoService +from src.services.fred import FREDService +from src.services.polygon import PolygonService +from src.services.congress import CongressService +from src.services.defillama import DefiLlamaService +from src.services.etherscan import EtherscanService +from src.services.telegram_search import TelegramSearchService + +logger = logging.getLogger(__name__) + + +@dataclass +class Tool: + """A tool available to the LLM.""" + name: str + description: str + parameters: dict # JSON Schema for parameters + execute: Callable[..., str] # (kwargs) -> result string + + +class ToolRegistry: + """ + Registry of tools available for LLM function calling. + + Usage: + registry = ToolRegistry(twitter_api_key="...", tavily_api_key="...") + schemas = registry.openai_tool_schemas() # pass to LLM + result = registry.call("search_twitter", query="Bitcoin") # execute + """ + + def __init__( + self, + twitter_api_key: str, + tavily_api_key: str, + fred_api_key: str = "", + polygon_api_key: str = "", + congress_api_key: str = "", + etherscan_api_key: str = "", + serper_api_key: str = "", + telegram_api_id: str = "", + telegram_api_hash: str = "", + telegram_session_string: str = "", + telegram_channels: str = "", + ): + self._tools: Dict[str, Tool] = {} + + # -- Twitter search -- + twitter = TwitterSearchService(api_key=twitter_api_key) + if twitter.is_available(): + self._register(Tool( + name="search_twitter", + description=( + "Search Twitter/X for real-time social sentiment, KOL opinions, " + "and breaking news about a topic. Returns top and latest tweets " + "with engagement metrics. Best for: real-time sentiment, crypto " + "community reactions, political commentary, breaking news that " + "hasn't hit mainstream media yet." + ), + parameters={ + "type": "object", + "properties": { + "query": { + "type": "string", + "description": "Search query (e.g. 'Bitcoin ETF', 'Trump indictment')", + }, + }, + "required": ["query"], + }, + execute=lambda query: twitter.search_for_market(query, limit=10), + )) + + # -- Telegram search (crypto channels) -- + telegram = TelegramSearchService( + api_id=telegram_api_id, + api_hash=telegram_api_hash, + session_string=telegram_session_string, + channels=telegram_channels.split(",") if telegram_channels.strip() else None, + ) + if telegram.is_available(): + self._register(Tool( + name="search_telegram", + description=( + "Search Telegram channels for recent messages about a topic. " + "Covers crypto (Whale Alert, WatcherGuru, CryptoVIPSignalTA) and " + "politics/geopolitics (Disclose.tv, DDGeopolitics, Intel Slava, " + "PoliticsForAll, Trump, TheScrollOfBenjamin). " + "Returns messages with view counts. " + "Best for: US politics, Trump news, approval ratings, elections, " + "geopolitics, military conflicts, Russia/Ukraine, Middle East, " + "macro economics, crypto news, whale transfers, and breaking news." + ), + parameters={ + "type": "object", + "properties": { + "query": { + "type": "string", + "description": "Search query (e.g. 'MegaETH launch', 'Solana outage')", + }, + }, + "required": ["query"], + }, + execute=lambda query: telegram.search_for_market(query, limit=10), + )) + + # -- Web search (Tavily -> Serper -> DuckDuckGo fallback) -- + web_search = WebSearchService( + tavily_api_key=tavily_api_key, + serper_api_key=serper_api_key, + ) + if web_search.is_available(): + self._register(Tool( + name="search_web", + description=( + "Search the web for recent news articles, analysis, and factual " + "information about a topic. Returns article summaries with sources. " + "Best for: verifying events, finding official announcements, " + "regulatory news, earnings reports, court rulings, legislation status." + ), + parameters={ + "type": "object", + "properties": { + "query": { + "type": "string", + "description": "Search query for news and analysis", + }, + }, + "required": ["query"], + }, + execute=lambda query: web_search.search_for_market(query, max_results=5), + )) + + # -- CoinGecko crypto data -- + coingecko = CoinGeckoService() + self._register(Tool( + name="get_crypto_price", + description=( + "Get real-time cryptocurrency price, 24h/7d/30d change, market cap, " + "volume, and ATH data. Accepts ticker symbols (BTC, ETH, SOL) or " + "CoinGecko IDs. Best for: any market involving crypto price targets " + "(e.g. 'Will BTC hit $100k'), crypto market conditions." + ), + parameters={ + "type": "object", + "properties": { + "coin": { + "type": "string", + "description": "Ticker symbol (BTC, ETH, SOL) or CoinGecko coin ID", + }, + }, + "required": ["coin"], + }, + execute=lambda coin: coingecko.get_price(coin), + )) + + self._register(Tool( + name="get_crypto_market_overview", + description=( + "Get global crypto market overview: total market cap, 24h change, " + "BTC/ETH dominance, trading volume. Best for: understanding overall " + "crypto market sentiment and conditions." + ), + parameters={ + "type": "object", + "properties": {}, + }, + execute=lambda: coingecko.get_market_overview(), + )) + + # -- FRED macroeconomic data -- + fred = FREDService(api_key=fred_api_key) + if fred.is_available(): + self._register(Tool( + name="get_economic_data", + description=( + "Get macroeconomic data from FRED (Federal Reserve). Supports " + "common names: fed_rate, cpi, inflation, unemployment, gdp, " + "oil_price, wti, brent, gold, vix, sp500, yield_curve, " + "jobless_claims, 10y_treasury, 2y_treasury, dollar_index. " + "Also accepts any FRED series ID (e.g. FEDFUNDS, UNRATE). " + "Returns recent data points with trend. Best for: Fed policy " + "markets, inflation bets, employment data, oil/commodity prices, " + "recession indicators." + ), + parameters={ + "type": "object", + "properties": { + "query": { + "type": "string", + "description": ( + "Common name (fed_rate, cpi, unemployment, oil_price, " + "vix, gold, sp500) or FRED series ID" + ), + }, + }, + "required": ["query"], + }, + execute=lambda query: fred.get_series(query), + )) + + # -- Polygon.io financial data -- + polygon = PolygonService(api_key=polygon_api_key) + if polygon.is_available(): + self._register(Tool( + name="get_stock_price", + description=( + "Get real-time stock/ETF price snapshot from Polygon.io. " + "Includes price, daily change, volume, day range. " + "Examples: AAPL, TSLA, GS, META, SPY, QQQ, GLD, USO. " + "Best for: markets involving specific company events " + "(IPOs, earnings, lawsuits), sector ETFs, gold/oil ETFs." + ), + parameters={ + "type": "object", + "properties": { + "ticker": { + "type": "string", + "description": "Ticker symbol (e.g. AAPL, TSLA, GS, SPY, GLD)", + }, + }, + "required": ["ticker"], + }, + execute=lambda ticker: polygon.get_ticker_snapshot(ticker), + )) + + self._register(Tool( + name="get_stock_news", + description=( + "Get recent news articles for a stock/company from Polygon.io. " + "Returns headlines, sources, and summaries. " + "Best for: company-specific events, earnings surprises, " + "M&A rumors, regulatory actions, CEO statements." + ), + parameters={ + "type": "object", + "properties": { + "ticker": { + "type": "string", + "description": "Stock ticker (e.g. AAPL, TSLA, GS)", + }, + }, + "required": ["ticker"], + }, + execute=lambda ticker: polygon.get_market_news(ticker), + )) + + # -- Congress.gov legislative data -- + congress_svc = CongressService(api_key=congress_api_key) + if congress_svc.is_available(): + self._register(Tool( + name="get_bill_status", + description=( + "Get status of a specific U.S. Congressional bill. " + "Requires congress number (e.g. 119), bill type (hr, s, hjres, sjres), " + "and bill number. Returns sponsor, cosponsors, latest action, " + "committee referrals. Best for: markets about specific legislation " + "(TikTok ban, crypto regulation, immigration reform, tax bills)." + ), + parameters={ + "type": "object", + "properties": { + "congress": { + "type": "integer", + "description": "Congress number (119 for 2025-2026)", + }, + "bill_type": { + "type": "string", + "description": "Bill type: hr (House), s (Senate), hjres, sjres", + }, + "bill_number": { + "type": "integer", + "description": "Bill number", + }, + }, + "required": ["congress", "bill_type", "bill_number"], + }, + execute=lambda congress, bill_type, bill_number: congress_svc.get_bill_status( + congress, bill_type, bill_number + ), + )) + + self._register(Tool( + name="get_recent_legislation", + description=( + "Get recently updated U.S. Congressional bills. " + "Returns latest bills with their current status and actions. " + "Best for: understanding current legislative activity, " + "political markets about government actions, policy changes." + ), + parameters={ + "type": "object", + "properties": {}, + }, + execute=lambda: congress_svc.search_bills("", limit=5), + )) + + # -- DeFiLlama (DeFi protocol data, no API key needed) -- + defillama = DefiLlamaService() + self._register(Tool( + name="get_protocol_tvl", + description=( + "Get DeFi protocol TVL (Total Value Locked), TVL changes (1h/24h/7d), " + "and chain breakdown from DeFiLlama. Accepts protocol name or slug " + "(e.g. 'aave', 'uniswap', 'lido', 'eigenlayer'). " + "Best for: token launch FDV markets, DeFi protocol health, " + "evaluating project fundamentals before/after token launch." + ), + parameters={ + "type": "object", + "properties": { + "protocol": { + "type": "string", + "description": "Protocol name or slug (e.g. 'aave', 'uniswap', 'megaeth')", + }, + }, + "required": ["protocol"], + }, + execute=lambda protocol: defillama.get_protocol_tvl(protocol), + )) + + self._register(Tool( + name="get_token_unlocks", + description=( + "Get token unlock/vesting schedule for a DeFi protocol from DeFiLlama. " + "Shows allocation categories and upcoming unlock events. " + "Best for: understanding token supply dynamics, evaluating FDV markets, " + "predicting sell pressure from upcoming unlocks." + ), + parameters={ + "type": "object", + "properties": { + "protocol": { + "type": "string", + "description": "Protocol name or slug (e.g. 'arbitrum', 'optimism', 'eigenlayer')", + }, + }, + "required": ["protocol"], + }, + execute=lambda protocol: defillama.get_token_unlocks(protocol), + )) + + self._register(Tool( + name="get_protocol_revenue", + description=( + "Get DeFi protocol fees and revenue (24h/7d/30d/all-time) from DeFiLlama. " + "Best for: evaluating protocol fundamentals, comparing revenue vs FDV, " + "assessing if a token launch valuation is justified." + ), + parameters={ + "type": "object", + "properties": { + "protocol": { + "type": "string", + "description": "Protocol name or slug (e.g. 'aave', 'uniswap', 'gmx')", + }, + }, + "required": ["protocol"], + }, + execute=lambda protocol: defillama.get_protocol_revenue(protocol), + )) + + # -- Etherscan (on-chain data) -- + etherscan = EtherscanService(api_key=etherscan_api_key) + if etherscan.is_available(): + self._register(Tool( + name="get_wallet_transfers", + description=( + "Get recent ERC-20 token transfers (USDC, USDT, WETH, DAI) for an " + "Ethereum wallet address from Etherscan. Shows direction (IN/OUT), " + "amount, counterparty, and flags large transfers (>$10k). " + "Best for: checking if a Polymarket whale recently received large " + "USDC deposits (funding for trades), tracking wallet activity." + ), + parameters={ + "type": "object", + "properties": { + "address": { + "type": "string", + "description": "Ethereum wallet address (0x...)", + }, + "token": { + "type": "string", + "description": "Token to track: USDC, USDT, WETH, or DAI (default: USDC)", + }, + }, + "required": ["address"], + }, + execute=lambda address, token="USDC": etherscan.get_wallet_token_transfers(address, token), + )) + + self._register(Tool( + name="get_contract_info", + description=( + "Check if an Ethereum address is a smart contract, when it was created, " + "its name and verification status from Etherscan. " + "Best for: verifying if a crypto project has deployed contracts, " + "checking contract activity for token launch markets." + ), + parameters={ + "type": "object", + "properties": { + "address": { + "type": "string", + "description": "Ethereum contract address (0x...)", + }, + }, + "required": ["address"], + }, + execute=lambda address: etherscan.get_contract_info(address), + )) + + def _register(self, tool: Tool): + self._tools[tool.name] = tool + logger.info(f"Registered tool: {tool.name}") + + @property + def available_tools(self) -> List[str]: + return list(self._tools.keys()) + + def openai_tool_schemas(self) -> List[dict]: + """Return tool schemas in OpenAI function-calling format.""" + return [ + { + "type": "function", + "function": { + "name": tool.name, + "description": tool.description, + "parameters": tool.parameters, + }, + } + for tool in self._tools.values() + ] + + def call(self, name: str, **kwargs) -> str: + """ + Execute a tool by name. + + Returns the tool's string result, or an error message if the tool + is not found or execution fails. + """ + tool = self._tools.get(name) + if not tool: + msg = f"Tool '{name}' not found. Available: {self.available_tools}" + logger.error(msg) + return msg + + try: + result = tool.execute(**kwargs) + logger.info(f"Tool {name} executed successfully ({len(result)} chars)") + return result + except Exception as e: + msg = f"Tool '{name}' failed: {e}" + logger.error(msg) + return msg diff --git a/src/services/trade_monitor.py b/src/services/trade_monitor.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2d6077d --- /dev/null +++ b/src/services/trade_monitor.py @@ -0,0 +1,698 @@ +""" +Trade monitoring service — RTDS WebSocket architecture. + +Single WebSocket connection receives ALL trades in real-time from +Polymarket RTDS (wss://ws-live-data.polymarket.com). + +For each incoming trade: +1. Record for cluster detection (anomaly detector) +2. Dedup by transaction hash +3. Filter: whale pre-filter (price range, size, conviction) +4. Enrich: trader ranking + history → anomaly score +5. If score passes threshold → full enrichment + LLM callback + +Replaces the previous per-market HTTP polling architecture. +""" +import asyncio +import json +import logging +import math +import time as _time +from datetime import datetime +from pathlib import Path +from typing import Dict, List, Optional, Set, Callable, Awaitable + +import httpx + +from src.config import get_settings +from src.models.market import Market, TrendingMarket +from src.models.trade import ( + TradeActivity, WhaleTrade, TraderRanking, TraderHistory, + EventPosition, MarketTopTrader, +) +from src.services.anomaly_detector import AnomalyDetector +from src.services.rtds_client import RTDSClient +from src.utils.http import get_async_client + +logger = logging.getLogger(__name__) + +# Gamma API for fetching latest market prices +GAMMA_API_URL = "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets" + +# File to persist processed transaction hashes +PROCESSED_TXNS_FILE = Path(__file__).parent.parent.parent / "data" / "processed_transactions.json" + + +class TradeMonitor: + """ + Monitors Polymarket markets for large trades via RTDS WebSocket. + + Architecture: single WebSocket connection → filter → enrich → callback. + """ + + def __init__( + self, + on_whale_detected: Optional[Callable[[WhaleTrade], Awaitable[None]]] = None, + ): + self.settings = get_settings() + + # RTDS WebSocket client (created in run()) + self._rtds: Optional[RTDSClient] = None + + # HTTP client for enrichment API calls (trader ranking, history, etc.) + self.data_api_url = "https://data-api.polymarket.com" + self.leaderboard_endpoint = f"{self.data_api_url}/v1/leaderboard" + self.trades_endpoint = f"{self.data_api_url}/trades" + self._client = get_async_client( + timeout=httpx.Timeout(30.0, pool=120.0), + limits=httpx.Limits( + max_connections=50, + max_keepalive_connections=20, + keepalive_expiry=30, + ), + ) + + # Cache for trader rankings to avoid repeated API calls + self._trader_ranking_cache: Dict[str, TraderRanking] = {} + + # Markets being monitored: condition_id -> Market + # Used for enrichment (market question, description, etc.) + self._monitored_markets: Dict[str, Market] = {} + # condition_id -> market_id mapping + self._condition_to_market_id: Dict[str, str] = {} + + # Track processed transactions to avoid duplicates + self._processed_txns: Set[str] = set() + self._load_processed_txns() + + # Anomaly detector for multi-dimensional scoring + self._anomaly_detector = AnomalyDetector() + + # Callback for whale detection + self._on_whale_detected = on_whale_detected + + # Control flag + self._running = False + + # Flag to suppress alerts during initial warmup + self._warmup_complete = False + self._warmup_seconds = 10 # seconds to collect baseline before alerting + + # ================================================================ + # Persistence + # ================================================================ + + def _load_processed_txns(self): + """Load processed transaction hashes from JSON file.""" + try: + if PROCESSED_TXNS_FILE.exists(): + with open(PROCESSED_TXNS_FILE, "r") as f: + data = json.load(f) + self._processed_txns = set(data.get("transactions", [])) + logger.info(f"Loaded {len(self._processed_txns)} processed transactions from file") + except json.JSONDecodeError as e: + logger.warning(f"Corrupted JSON file, backing up and starting fresh: {e}") + if PROCESSED_TXNS_FILE.exists(): + backup_file = PROCESSED_TXNS_FILE.with_suffix('.json.bak') + PROCESSED_TXNS_FILE.rename(backup_file) + logger.info(f"Backed up corrupted file to {backup_file}") + self._processed_txns = set() + except Exception as e: + logger.warning(f"Failed to load processed transactions: {e}") + self._processed_txns = set() + + def _save_processed_txns(self): + """Save processed transaction hashes to JSON file.""" + try: + PROCESSED_TXNS_FILE.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + with open(PROCESSED_TXNS_FILE, "w") as f: + json.dump({ + "transactions": list(self._processed_txns), + "count": len(self._processed_txns), + "last_updated": datetime.now().isoformat() + }, f, indent=2) + logger.debug(f"Saved {len(self._processed_txns)} processed transactions to file") + except Exception as e: + logger.warning(f"Failed to save processed transactions: {e}") + + async def close(self): + """Cleanup resources.""" + self._save_processed_txns() + await self._client.aclose() + + # ================================================================ + # Market list management + # ================================================================ + + def set_monitored_markets(self, markets: List[TrendingMarket]): + """Update the list of markets to monitor.""" + self._monitored_markets = {} + self._condition_to_market_id = {} + for tm in markets: + m = tm.market + if m.id and m.condition_id: + self._monitored_markets[m.condition_id] = m + self._condition_to_market_id[m.condition_id] = m.id + logger.info(f"Now monitoring {len(self._monitored_markets)} markets") + + def set_tiered_markets(self, tiers: dict[str, list]) -> None: + """Set markets from tiered scan (same interface as before).""" + self._monitored_markets = {} + self._condition_to_market_id = {} + + for tier_name, markets in tiers.items(): + for tm in markets: + m = tm.market + if m.id and m.condition_id: + self._monitored_markets[m.condition_id] = m + self._condition_to_market_id[m.condition_id] = m.id + + total = len(self._monitored_markets) + tier_counts = {k: len(v) for k, v in tiers.items()} + logger.info(f"Tiered monitoring: {tier_counts}, total={total}") + + # ================================================================ + # RTDS trade handler (core of the new architecture) + # ================================================================ + + async def _on_rtds_trade(self, activity: TradeActivity) -> None: + """ + Called for every trade received from RTDS WebSocket. + + This replaces the per-market polling loop. + """ + condition_id = activity.condition_id + + # Look up market info (enrichment data) + market = self._monitored_markets.get(condition_id) + market_id = self._condition_to_market_id.get(condition_id, "") + + # Record every trade for cluster detection (even unmonitored markets) + if market_id: + self._anomaly_detector.record_trade(activity, market_id) + + # Dedup by transaction hash + outcome (same tx can have multiple fills) + dedup_key = f"{activity.transaction_hash}_{activity.outcome}_{activity.size}" + if dedup_key in self._processed_txns: + return + self._processed_txns.add(dedup_key) + + # Skip unmonitored markets + if not market: + return + + # Skip during warmup period (avoid alerting on historical trades) + if not self._warmup_complete: + return + + # Only track BUY trades (new positions) + if activity.side != "BUY": + return + + # Whale pre-filter + if not self._is_whale_trade(activity, market=market): + return + + # Handle whale (enrich + score + callback) + asyncio.create_task(self._handle_whale(activity, market_id, market)) + + # ================================================================ + # Whale detection (unchanged from original) + # ================================================================ + + def _is_whale_trade(self, activity: TradeActivity, market: Optional[Market] = None) -> bool: + """ + Multi-layer pre-filter mirroring options flow SignalFilter._check_signal. + + Filter chain (early rejection): + 1. Price range — like moneyness filter (OTM/ITM range) + 2. Direction — BUY only (like enabled direction_filters) + 3. Resolution window — like DTE filter (3-60 days sweet spot) + 4. Size — like premium filter ($250K+ minimum) + 5. Dynamic size — like dynamic_premium (base × √(vol / baseline)) + 5.5 Normalized size — like normalized_premium (usdc / √(vol)) + 6. Signal strength — like ask_ratio filter (conviction check) + """ + # --- 1. Price range --- + if not (self.settings.min_price <= activity.price <= self.settings.max_price): + return False + + # --- 2. Direction: BUY only --- + # Already enforced upstream + + # --- 3. Resolution window --- + if market and market.end_date: + try: + end_dt = datetime.fromisoformat(market.end_date.replace("Z", "+00:00")) + now_dt = datetime.utcnow().replace(tzinfo=end_dt.tzinfo) if end_dt.tzinfo else datetime.utcnow() + hours_to_resolution = max(0, (end_dt - now_dt).total_seconds() / 3600) + if hours_to_resolution < 3: + return False + if hours_to_resolution > 180 * 24: + return False + except (ValueError, TypeError): + pass + + # --- 4. Size --- + if activity.usdc_size < 3_000: + return False + + # --- 5. Dynamic size --- + base_size = 5_000.0 + baseline_volume = 1_000_000.0 + + if market and market.volume > 0: + threshold = base_size * math.sqrt(market.volume / baseline_volume) + threshold = max(3_000.0, min(threshold, 50_000.0)) + else: + threshold = base_size + + if activity.usdc_size < threshold: + return False + + # --- 5.5 Normalized size (like normalized_premium) --- + # usdc_size / √(volume) makes signals comparable across market sizes. + # A $5K trade in a $50K market is far more significant than $20K in a $10M market. + if market and market.volume > 0: + normalized = activity.usdc_size / math.sqrt(market.volume) + # Minimum normalized threshold: filters out trades that are trivial + # relative to market size (calibrated: $5K in a $1M market → 5.0) + if normalized < 1.5: + return False + + # --- 6. Signal strength --- + if market and market.outcome_prices: + if activity.outcome == "Yes": + market_mid = market.outcome_prices[0] + elif len(market.outcome_prices) > 1: + market_mid = market.outcome_prices[1] + else: + market_mid = 1.0 - market.outcome_prices[0] + + if activity.price < market_mid + 0.01: + return False + + return True + + async def _handle_whale(self, activity: TradeActivity, market_id: str, market: Market): + """ + Handle a single whale trade: + 1. Fetch trader info (ranking + history) for anomaly scoring + 2. Compute multi-dimensional anomaly score as pre-filter + 3. If score passes threshold, fetch full enrichment data and fire LLM callback + """ + try: + # Phase 1: Quick fetch — ranking + history for anomaly scoring + trader_ranking, trader_history = await asyncio.gather( + self.fetch_trader_ranking(activity.proxy_wallet), + self.fetch_trader_history(activity.proxy_wallet), + ) + + # Phase 2: Anomaly scoring + should_analyze, score, breakdown = self._anomaly_detector.should_analyze( + activity, market=market, trader_history=trader_history, + market_id=market_id, + ) + + rank_str = f"(Rank #{trader_ranking.rank})" if trader_ranking and trader_ranking.rank else "(Unranked)" + breakdown_short = " | ".join(f"{k}={v:.2f}" for k, v in breakdown.items()) + + if not should_analyze: + logger.info( + f"⚪ Whale below threshold: ${activity.usdc_size:,.2f} " + f"BUY {activity.outcome} @ {activity.price:.4f} {rank_str} " + f"score={score:.2f} [{breakdown_short}] — skipped LLM" + ) + return + + logger.info( + f"🐋 Whale trade detected! ${activity.usdc_size:,.2f} " + f"BUY {activity.outcome} @ {activity.price:.4f} {rank_str} " + f"score={score:.2f} [{breakdown_short}] on '{market.question[:50]}...'" + ) + + # Phase 3: Full enrichment + event_positions, (top_buyers, top_sellers) = await asyncio.gather( + self.fetch_whale_event_positions( + activity.proxy_wallet, + activity.event_slug, + market.condition_id or "", + ), + self.fetch_market_top_traders( + market_id, condition_id=market.condition_id or "", + outcome_prices=market.outcome_prices, + ), + ) + + whale_trade = WhaleTrade( + id=f"{market_id}_{activity.transaction_hash}", + trade=activity, + market_id=market_id, + market_question=market.question, + market_description=market.description, + market_outcomes=market.outcomes, + market_outcome_prices=market.outcome_prices, + trader_ranking=trader_ranking, + trader_history=trader_history, + whale_event_positions=event_positions, + market_top_buyers=top_buyers, + market_top_sellers=top_sellers, + ) + + # Fire callback (LLM report generation) + if self._on_whale_detected: + await self._on_whale_detected(whale_trade) + + except Exception as e: + logger.error(f"Error handling whale trade in {market_id}: {e}") + + # ================================================================ + # Enrichment API calls (unchanged — still uses HTTP) + # ================================================================ + + async def fetch_trader_ranking(self, wallet_address: str) -> Optional[TraderRanking]: + """Fetch trader ranking from the leaderboard API.""" + if not wallet_address: + return None + + if wallet_address in self._trader_ranking_cache: + return self._trader_ranking_cache[wallet_address] + + try: + params = { + "user": wallet_address, + "timePeriod": "ALL", + "orderBy": "PNL", + } + response = await self._client.get(self.leaderboard_endpoint, params=params) + response.raise_for_status() + data = response.json() + + if data and len(data) > 0: + user_data = data[0] + ranking = TraderRanking( + rank=user_data.get("rank"), + pnl=float(user_data.get("pnl", 0) or 0), + volume=float(user_data.get("vol", 0) or 0), + user_name=user_data.get("userName"), + profile_image=user_data.get("profileImage"), + verified=bool(user_data.get("verifiedBadge")), + time_period="ALL", + ) + self._trader_ranking_cache[wallet_address] = ranking + logger.debug(f"Fetched ranking for {wallet_address}: #{ranking.rank}") + return ranking + + return None + + except httpx.HTTPError as e: + logger.debug(f"HTTP error fetching ranking for {wallet_address}: {e}") + return None + except Exception as e: + logger.debug(f"Error fetching ranking for {wallet_address}: {e}") + return None + + async def fetch_trader_history(self, wallet_address: str) -> Optional[TraderHistory]: + """Fetch trader's recent trading history.""" + if not wallet_address: + return None + + try: + params = { + "user": wallet_address, + "limit": 100, + } + response = await self._client.get(self.trades_endpoint, params=params) + response.raise_for_status() + data = response.json() + + if not data: + return None + + total_trades = len(data) + total_volume = 0.0 + large_trades_count = 0 + recent_markets: Set[str] = set() + recent_trades = [] + + for trade in data: + usdc_size = float(trade.get("usdcSize", 0) or 0) + if usdc_size == 0: + size = float(trade.get("size", 0) or 0) + price = float(trade.get("price", 0) or 0) + usdc_size = size * price + + total_volume += usdc_size + + if usdc_size >= 5000: + large_trades_count += 1 + recent_trades.append({ + "side": trade.get("side", ""), + "usdc_size": usdc_size, + "price": float(trade.get("price", 0) or 0), + "title": trade.get("title", trade.get("marketTitle", "")), + "timestamp": trade.get("timestamp", 0), + }) + + title = trade.get("title", trade.get("marketTitle", "")) + if title: + recent_markets.add(title[:50]) + + avg_trade_size = total_volume / total_trades if total_trades > 0 else 0 + recent_trades.sort(key=lambda x: x["usdc_size"], reverse=True) + + return TraderHistory( + total_trades=total_trades, + total_volume=total_volume, + avg_trade_size=avg_trade_size, + large_trades_count=large_trades_count, + recent_markets=list(recent_markets)[:10], + recent_trades=recent_trades[:10], + ) + + except httpx.HTTPError as e: + logger.debug(f"HTTP error fetching history for {wallet_address}: {e}") + return None + except Exception as e: + logger.debug(f"Error fetching history for {wallet_address}: {e}") + return None + + async def fetch_whale_event_positions( + self, + wallet_address: str, + event_slug: str, + current_condition_id: str, + ) -> List[EventPosition]: + """Fetch the whale's positions across all markets in the same event.""" + if not wallet_address or not event_slug: + return [] + + try: + response = await self._client.get( + f"{self.data_api_url}/positions", + params={"user": wallet_address}, + ) + response.raise_for_status() + all_positions = response.json() + if not all_positions: + return [] + + result = [] + for pos in all_positions: + pos_event_slug = pos.get("eventSlug", "") + pos_condition_id = pos.get("conditionId", "") + + if pos_event_slug != event_slug: + continue + if pos_condition_id == current_condition_id: + continue + + size = float(pos.get("size", 0) or 0) + if size == 0: + continue + + outcome = pos.get("outcome", "Yes") + avg_price = float(pos.get("avgPrice", 0) or 0) + cur_price = float(pos.get("curPrice", 0) or 0) + current_value = float(pos.get("currentValue", 0) or 0) + initial_value = float(pos.get("initialValue", 0) or 0) + cash_pnl = float(pos.get("cashPnl", 0) or 0) + title = pos.get("title", "") + + if outcome == "Yes": + side_summary = f"Holding Yes {size:,.0f} tokens @ avg {avg_price:.2%}, current {cur_price:.2%}" + else: + side_summary = f"Holding No {size:,.0f} tokens @ avg {avg_price:.2%}, current {cur_price:.2%}" + + result.append(EventPosition( + market_question=title, + condition_id=pos_condition_id, + outcome=outcome, + size=size, + avg_price=avg_price, + current_price=cur_price, + current_value=current_value, + initial_value=initial_value, + pnl=cash_pnl, + side_summary=side_summary, + )) + + result.sort(key=lambda x: x.current_value, reverse=True) + logger.debug( + f"Found {len(result)} event positions for {wallet_address} " + f"in event '{event_slug}'" + ) + return result + + except Exception as e: + logger.warning(f"Error fetching whale event positions: {e}") + return [] + + async def fetch_market_top_traders( + self, market_id: str, condition_id: str = "", + outcome_prices: Optional[List[float]] = None, top_n: int = 5, + ) -> tuple[List[MarketTopTrader], List[MarketTopTrader]]: + """Fetch top holders (bulls and bears) for a market.""" + if not condition_id: + return [], [] + + yes_price = outcome_prices[0] if outcome_prices and len(outcome_prices) > 0 else 0.5 + no_price = outcome_prices[1] if outcome_prices and len(outcome_prices) > 1 else 0.5 + + try: + response = await self._client.get( + f"{self.data_api_url}/holders", + params={"market": condition_id, "limit": top_n}, + ) + response.raise_for_status() + data = response.json() + if not data: + return [], [] + + top_buyers = [] + top_sellers = [] + + for token_group in data: + holders = token_group.get("holders", []) + if not holders: + continue + + outcome_index = holders[0].get("outcomeIndex", 0) + token_price = yes_price if outcome_index == 0 else no_price + + for h in holders[:top_n]: + wallet = h.get("proxyWallet", "") + name = h.get("name") or h.get("pseudonym") or None + amount = float(h.get("amount", 0) or 0) + usd_value = amount * token_price + + trader = MarketTopTrader( + wallet=wallet, + name=name, + net_volume_usd=usd_value, + trade_count=0, + ) + + if outcome_index == 0: + top_buyers.append(trader) + else: + top_sellers.append(trader) + + # Fetch rankings in parallel + ranking_tasks = [] + trader_refs = [] + for t in top_buyers + top_sellers: + ranking_tasks.append(self.fetch_trader_ranking(t.wallet)) + trader_refs.append(t) + + if ranking_tasks: + rankings = await asyncio.gather(*ranking_tasks, return_exceptions=True) + for trader, ranking in zip(trader_refs, rankings): + if isinstance(ranking, TraderRanking) and ranking: + trader.rank = ranking.rank + trader.pnl = ranking.pnl + if ranking.user_name: + trader.name = ranking.user_name + + logger.debug( + f"Market {market_id}: {len(top_buyers)} top Yes holders, " + f"{len(top_sellers)} top No holders" + ) + return top_buyers, top_sellers + + except Exception as e: + logger.warning(f"Error fetching top holders for {market_id}: {e}") + return [], [] + + # ================================================================ + # Main run loop + # ================================================================ + + async def run(self): + """ + Start the RTDS-based monitoring loop. + + Architecture: + - Single RTDS WebSocket receives ALL trades in real-time + - _on_rtds_trade filters and handles each trade + - Periodic persistence of processed transactions + """ + self._running = True + + # Create RTDS client with our trade handler + proxy = self.settings.http_proxy.strip() or None + self._rtds = RTDSClient(on_trade=self._on_rtds_trade, proxy=proxy) + + logger.info( + f"Starting RTDS trade monitor " + f"({len(self._monitored_markets)} monitored markets)" + ) + + # Start warmup timer — suppress alerts for first N seconds + # to avoid firing on trades already in the RTDS pipeline + async def warmup_timer(): + await asyncio.sleep(self._warmup_seconds) + self._warmup_complete = True + logger.info( + f"Warmup complete ({self._warmup_seconds}s). " + f"Now alerting on new whale trades." + ) + + warmup_task = asyncio.create_task(warmup_timer()) + + # Periodic persistence task + async def persistence_loop(): + while self._running: + await asyncio.sleep(60) + self._save_processed_txns() + # Trim processed txns set to prevent unbounded growth + if len(self._processed_txns) > 100_000: + # Keep only the most recent 50K (approximate — set is unordered, + # but old hashes won't repeat so trimming is safe) + excess = len(self._processed_txns) - 50_000 + for _ in range(excess): + self._processed_txns.pop() + logger.info(f"Trimmed processed txns to {len(self._processed_txns)}") + + persistence_task = asyncio.create_task(persistence_loop()) + + try: + # Run RTDS client (blocks until stop) + await self._rtds.run() + finally: + warmup_task.cancel() + persistence_task.cancel() + self._save_processed_txns() + + def stop(self): + """Stop the monitoring loop.""" + self._running = False + if self._rtds: + self._rtds.stop() + logger.info("Trade monitor stopping...") + + def clear_processed_transactions(self): + """Clear the processed transactions cache.""" + count = len(self._processed_txns) + self._processed_txns.clear() + logger.info(f"Cleared {count} processed transactions from cache") \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/src/services/trader_profiler.py b/src/services/trader_profiler.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e6b2048 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/services/trader_profiler.py @@ -0,0 +1,81 @@ +"""Trader profiler service - generates structured trader profiles for LLM consumption.""" +import json +import logging +from typing import Optional + +from src.models.trade import TraderRanking, TraderHistory + +logger = logging.getLogger(__name__) + + +class TraderProfiler: + """ + Generates structured trader profiles for LLM consumption. + + Only organizes raw data into a clean JSON structure. + All interpretation and judgment is left to the LLM. + """ + + def generate_profile( + self, + wallet_address: str, + ranking: Optional[TraderRanking], + history: Optional[TraderHistory], + ) -> dict: + """ + Generate a structured trader profile from raw data. + + Returns: + dict with raw trader data for LLM consumption + """ + # Ranking - raw numbers only + ranking_data = { + "rank": ranking.rank if ranking else None, + "pnl": ranking.pnl if ranking else None, + "total_volume": ranking.volume if ranking else None, + "verified": ranking.verified if ranking else False, + "username": ranking.user_name if ranking else None, + } + + # Trading behavior - raw numbers only + large_trade_ratio = 0.0 + if history and history.total_trades > 0: + large_trade_ratio = history.large_trades_count / history.total_trades + + behavior_data = { + "total_trades": history.total_trades if history else 0, + "total_volume": history.total_volume if history else 0.0, + "avg_trade_size": history.avg_trade_size if history else 0.0, + "large_trades_count": history.large_trades_count if history else 0, + "large_trade_ratio": round(large_trade_ratio, 3), + "active_markets": history.recent_markets[:5] if history and history.recent_markets else [], + } + + # Recent trades - raw data + recent_trades = [] + if history and history.recent_trades: + for t in history.recent_trades[:10]: + recent_trades.append({ + "side": t.get("side", ""), + "size_usd": t.get("usdc_size", 0), + "price": t.get("price", 0), + "market": t.get("title", "")[:50], + }) + + return { + "ranking": ranking_data, + "behavior": behavior_data, + "recent_trades": recent_trades, + } + + def format_profile_for_llm(self, profile: dict) -> str: + """Format the profile dict as JSON for LLM input.""" + profile_json = json.dumps(profile, ensure_ascii=False, indent=2) + + return f""" +### Trader Profile + +```json +{profile_json} +``` +""" diff --git a/src/services/twitter_search.py b/src/services/twitter_search.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b403424 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/services/twitter_search.py @@ -0,0 +1,220 @@ +"""Twitter search service for whale trade verification.""" +import os +import logging +from typing import Optional, Literal + +import requests +from requests.adapters import HTTPAdapter +from urllib3.util.retry import Retry + +logger = logging.getLogger(__name__) + + +# ---------- Retry-enabled HTTP GET ---------- +_shared_session: Optional[requests.Session] = None + + +def robust_get(url: str, **kwargs) -> requests.Response: + """GET request with automatic retry (3 retries, exponential backoff).""" + global _shared_session + if _shared_session is None: + _shared_session = requests.Session() + retry = Retry( + total=3, + backoff_factor=0.5, + status_forcelist=(429, 500, 502, 503, 504), + allowed_methods=["GET"], + raise_on_status=False, + ) + adapter = HTTPAdapter(max_retries=retry) + _shared_session.mount("http://", adapter) + _shared_session.mount("https://", adapter) + kwargs.setdefault("timeout", 15) + return _shared_session.get(url, **kwargs) + +# Twitter module constants and helpers (extracted to avoid langchain @tool decorator issues) +TWITTER_API_KEY = os.getenv("TWITTER_API_KEY", "NONE") +BASE_URL = "https://api.twitterapi.io/twitter" +SEARCH_ENDPOINT = f"{BASE_URL}/tweet/advanced_search" +USER_TWEETS_ENDPOINT = f"{BASE_URL}/user/last_tweets" + + +def _parse_tweet_text(tweet_data: dict) -> Optional[dict]: + """Parse and format a single tweet.""" + try: + # API returns author (not user), with userName (not username) + author = tweet_data.get("author") or tweet_data.get("user") or {} + user = author.get("userName") or author.get("username") or "unknown" + text = tweet_data.get("text", "") + likes = tweet_data.get("likeCount") or tweet_data.get("favorite_count") or 0 + retweets = tweet_data.get("retweetCount") or tweet_data.get("retweet_count") or 0 + created_at = tweet_data.get("createdAt") or tweet_data.get("created_at") or "" + engagement = int(likes) + int(retweets) + return { + "user": user, + "text": text, + "engagement": engagement, + "time": created_at, + } + except Exception: + return None + + +def _format_tweets_report(title: str, parsed_tweets: list[dict], total_engagement: int) -> str: + """Format tweets list as a report.""" + report = [f"--- {title} ---"] + report.append(f"Total Engagement in Sample: {total_engagement} (Likes+RTs)") + report.append("Top Discussions:") + for idx, item in enumerate(parsed_tweets): + text_preview = item["text"][:200] + if len(item["text"]) > 200: + text_preview += "..." + report.append(f'{idx + 1}. @{item["user"]} (🔥{item["engagement"]}): "{text_preview}"') + report.append("-------------------------------------------") + return "\n".join(report) + + +class TwitterSearchService: + """ + Twitter search service for whale trade verification. + + Uses Twitter API for social sentiment search. + """ + + def __init__(self, api_key: Optional[str] = None): + """ + Initialize Twitter search service. + + Args: + api_key: Twitter API key. If not provided, reads from TWITTER_API_KEY env var. + """ + self.api_key = api_key or os.getenv("TWITTER_API_KEY", "") + if not self.api_key: + logger.warning("TWITTER_API_KEY not set. Twitter search will be disabled.") + + def _get_headers(self) -> dict[str, str]: + """Get request headers with API key.""" + return {"X-API-Key": self.api_key} + + def is_available(self) -> bool: + """Check if Twitter search is available (API key is set).""" + return bool(self.api_key and self.api_key.strip().upper() != "NONE") + + def search_tweets( + self, + query: str, + search_mode: Literal["top", "latest"] = "top", + limit: int = 10, + ) -> str: + """ + Search Twitter for tweets matching a query. + + Args: + query: Search query (e.g., "Trump", "Bitcoin", "Fed rate") + search_mode: "top" for most relevant, "latest" for most recent + limit: Number of tweets to return (1-20) + + Returns: + Formatted report of tweets with engagement metrics. + """ + if not self.is_available(): + return "Twitter search unavailable: TWITTER_API_KEY not configured." + + limit = max(1, min(limit, 20)) + query_type = "Top" if search_mode == "top" else "Latest" + + params = { + "query": query, + "queryType": query_type, + "limit": limit, + } + + try: + response = robust_get( + SEARCH_ENDPOINT, + params=params, + headers=self._get_headers(), + timeout=15, + ) + + if response.status_code != 200: + logger.error(f"Twitter API error: {response.status_code} - {response.text[:200]}") + return f"Twitter API Error: {response.status_code}" + + data = response.json() + tweets_raw = data.get("tweets", []) + + if not tweets_raw: + return f"No recent tweets found for '{query}'." + + # Parse tweets + parsed_tweets = [] + total_engagement = 0 + + for t in tweets_raw: + p = _parse_tweet_text(t) + if p: + parsed_tweets.append(p) + total_engagement += p["engagement"] + + mode_label = "Hot" if search_mode == "top" else "Latest" + return _format_tweets_report( + f"Twitter Search Results for '{query}' [{mode_label}]", + parsed_tweets, + total_engagement, + ) + + except Exception as e: + logger.error(f"Twitter search failed: {e}") + return f"Twitter search failed: {str(e)}" + + def search_for_market( + self, + market_question: str, + limit: int = 10, + ) -> str: + """ + Search Twitter for information relevant to a prediction market. + + Combines both TOP (importance/engagement) and LATEST (timeliness) results + to balance relevance and recency. + + Args: + market_question: The market question to search for + limit: Number of tweets per search mode (will search both top and latest) + + Returns: + Combined search results from both search modes. + """ + if not self.is_available(): + return "Twitter search unavailable: TWITTER_API_KEY not configured." + + results = [] + query = market_question[:100] # Limit query length for API + + # 1. Search TOP tweets - high engagement, represents importance + top_result = self.search_tweets(query, search_mode="top", limit=limit) + if "No recent tweets" not in top_result and "Error" not in top_result: + results.append("## Hot Tweets (High Engagement / Importance)\n" + top_result) + + # 2. Search LATEST tweets - real-time info, represents timeliness + latest_result = self.search_tweets(query, search_mode="latest", limit=limit) + if "No recent tweets" not in latest_result and "Error" not in latest_result: + results.append("## Latest Tweets (Real-Time / Timeliness)\n" + latest_result) + + if not results: + return f"No relevant tweets found for: {market_question[:50]}..." + + return "\n\n".join(results) + + +# Singleton instance +_twitter_service: Optional[TwitterSearchService] = None + + +def get_twitter_service() -> TwitterSearchService: + """Get the singleton Twitter search service instance.""" + global _twitter_service + if _twitter_service is None: + _twitter_service = TwitterSearchService() + return _twitter_service diff --git a/src/services/volatility_analyzer.py b/src/services/volatility_analyzer.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..12a19fc --- /dev/null +++ b/src/services/volatility_analyzer.py @@ -0,0 +1,372 @@ +"""Volatility analyzer service - analyzes price volatility using AI to detect leading signals.""" +import json +import logging +import re +from datetime import datetime +from pathlib import Path +from typing import Optional + +from openai import OpenAI + +from src.config import get_settings +from src.models.leading_signal import LeadingSignal, SignalType +from src.services.price_monitor import VolatilityAlert +from src.services.twitter_search import TwitterSearchService +from src.prompts.volatility_analyzer import VolatilityAnalyzerPrompts + +logger = logging.getLogger(__name__) + +# Directory for storing leading signals dataset +LEADING_SIGNALS_DIR = Path(__file__).parent.parent.parent / "leading_signals" + + +class VolatilityAnalyzer: + """ + Analyzes price volatility events using LLM to detect "price leads news" signals. + + Uses Tavily web search and Twitter to verify whether a price movement + preceded public news, building a dataset of leading signals. + """ + + def __init__(self): + self.settings = get_settings() + + # Configure OpenAI-compatible API client + self.client = OpenAI( + base_url=self.settings.llm_base_url, + api_key=self.settings.llm_api_key, + ) + + self.prompts = VolatilityAnalyzerPrompts() + self.twitter_search = TwitterSearchService(api_key=self.settings.twitter_api_key) + from src.services.web_search import WebSearchService + self.web_search = WebSearchService( + tavily_api_key=self.settings.tavily_api_key, + serper_api_key=self.settings.serper_api_key, + ) + + # Ensure storage directory exists + LEADING_SIGNALS_DIR.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + + def _extract_json_from_response(self, response: str) -> Optional[dict]: + """ + Extract JSON from LLM response. + + Args: + response: The LLM response text + + Returns: + Parsed JSON dict or None + """ + # Try to find JSON in code blocks + json_pattern = r"```(?:json)?\s*([\s\S]*?)```" + matches = re.findall(json_pattern, response) + + for match in matches: + try: + return json.loads(match.strip()) + except json.JSONDecodeError: + continue + + # Try to find raw JSON + try: + start = response.find("{") + end = response.rfind("}") + 1 + if start >= 0 and end > start: + return json.loads(response[start:end]) + except json.JSONDecodeError: + pass + + return None + + def _parse_signal_type(self, type_str: str) -> SignalType: + """Parse signal type string to enum.""" + try: + return SignalType(type_str.upper()) + except ValueError: + return SignalType.SPECULATION + + def _store_leading_signal(self, signal: LeadingSignal) -> str: + """ + Store a leading signal to the dataset. + + Args: + signal: The leading signal to store + + Returns: + Path to the stored file + """ + # Create filename with timestamp and market info + timestamp = datetime.now().strftime("%Y%m%d_%H%M%S") + market_slug = re.sub(r'[^\w\s-]', '', signal.market_question)[:40] + market_slug = re.sub(r'\s+', '_', market_slug) + + filename = f"{timestamp}_{signal.signal_type.value}_{market_slug}.json" + filepath = LEADING_SIGNALS_DIR / filename + + with open(filepath, 'w', encoding='utf-8') as f: + json.dump(signal.to_dict(), f, ensure_ascii=False, indent=2) + + return str(filepath) + + def _store_all_signals_index(self, signal: LeadingSignal) -> None: + """ + Append signal to the master index file for easy querying. + + Args: + signal: The signal to append + """ + index_file = LEADING_SIGNALS_DIR / "signals_index.jsonl" + + with open(index_file, 'a', encoding='utf-8') as f: + f.write(json.dumps(signal.to_dict(), ensure_ascii=False) + "\n") + + async def analyze_volatility(self, alert: VolatilityAlert) -> Optional[LeadingSignal]: + """ + Analyze a price volatility event to determine if it's a leading signal. + + Args: + alert: The volatility alert to analyze + + Returns: + LeadingSignal if analysis successful, None otherwise + """ + logger.info( + f"Analyzing volatility: {alert.market_question[:50]}... " + f"{alert.direction} {abs(alert.price_change_percent):.1%}" + ) + + # Search web (Tavily) for news verification + web_search_context = "" + if self.web_search.is_available(): + logger.info(f"Searching web for: {alert.market_question[:50]}...") + web_result = self.web_search.search_for_market( + market_question=alert.market_question, + max_results=5, + ) + if web_result and "unavailable" not in web_result.lower(): + web_search_context = web_result + logger.info("Web search (Tavily) completed") + + # Search Twitter for social sentiment + twitter_context = "" + if self.twitter_search.is_available(): + logger.info(f"Searching Twitter for: {alert.market_question[:50]}...") + twitter_result = self.twitter_search.search_for_market( + market_question=alert.market_question, + limit=10, + ) + if twitter_result and "unavailable" not in twitter_result.lower(): + twitter_context = twitter_result + logger.info("Twitter search completed") + + # Build prompts + system_prompt = self.prompts.system_prompt() + user_prompt = self.prompts.analyze_volatility( + market_question=alert.market_question, + price_change_percent=alert.price_change_percent, + direction=alert.direction, + start_price=alert.start_price, + end_price=alert.end_price, + window_seconds=alert.window_seconds, + detected_at=alert.detected_at, + twitter_context=twitter_context, + web_search_context=web_search_context, + ) + + try: + # Call LLM API + response = self.client.chat.completions.create( + model=self.settings.llm_model, + messages=[ + {"role": "system", "content": system_prompt}, + {"role": "user", "content": user_prompt}, + ], + ) + + analysis_text = response.choices[0].message.content + logger.debug(f"LLM response: {analysis_text[:500]}...") + + # Extract JSON from response + json_data = self._extract_json_from_response(analysis_text) + + if not json_data: + logger.warning("Could not parse LLM response as JSON") + return None + + # Create LeadingSignal from response + signal_id = f"vol_{alert.market_id}_{int(datetime.now().timestamp())}" + + signal = LeadingSignal( + id=signal_id, + market_id=alert.market_id, + market_question=alert.market_question, + price_change_percent=alert.price_change_percent, + direction=alert.direction, + start_price=alert.start_price, + end_price=alert.end_price, + window_seconds=alert.window_seconds, + detected_at=datetime.utcnow().isoformat(), + volatility_detected_at=alert.detected_at, + signal_type=self._parse_signal_type(json_data.get("signal_type", "SPECULATION")), + confidence=float(json_data.get("confidence", 0.0)), + is_leading_signal=bool(json_data.get("is_leading_signal", False)), + news_found=bool(json_data.get("news_found", False)), + earliest_news_time=json_data.get("earliest_news_time"), + key_news_headlines=json_data.get("key_news_headlines", []), + earliest_social_time=json_data.get("earliest_social_time"), + key_social_posts=json_data.get("key_social_posts", []), + time_advantage_minutes=int(json_data.get("time_advantage_minutes", 0)), + reasoning=str(json_data.get("reasoning", "")), + potential_information_source=str(json_data.get("potential_information_source", "")), + full_analysis=analysis_text, + ) + + # Store the signal + filepath = self._store_leading_signal(signal) + self._store_all_signals_index(signal) + + # Log result + if signal.is_leading_signal: + logger.warning( + f"🚨 LEADING SIGNAL DETECTED: {alert.market_question[:50]}... " + f"Time advantage: {signal.time_advantage_minutes} minutes" + ) + else: + logger.info( + f"Volatility analyzed: {signal.signal_type.value} " + f"(confidence: {signal.confidence:.1%})" + ) + + logger.info(f"Signal stored: {filepath}") + + return signal + + except Exception as e: + logger.error(f"Error analyzing volatility: {e}") + return None + + def format_signal_report(self, signal: LeadingSignal) -> str: + """ + Format a leading signal as a readable report. + + Args: + signal: The signal to format + + Returns: + Formatted report string + """ + direction_label = "Up" if signal.direction == "UP" else "Down" + signal_type_label = { + SignalType.LEADING_SIGNAL: "Leading Signal (Price Preceded News)", + SignalType.NEWS_DRIVEN: "News-Driven", + SignalType.SOCIAL_DRIVEN: "Social-Driven", + SignalType.SPECULATION: "Speculative Volatility", + } + + news_headlines = "\n".join([f" - {h}" for h in signal.key_news_headlines]) or " None" + social_posts = "\n".join([f" - {p}" for p in signal.key_social_posts]) or " None" + + report = f""" +{'='*70} +# Price Volatility Analysis Report +{'='*70} + +**Analysis Time**: {signal.detected_at} + +## Volatility Details + +| Field | Details | +|-------|---------| +| **Market** | {signal.market_question} | +| **Price Change** | {direction_label} {abs(signal.price_change_percent):.1%} | +| **Start Price** | {signal.start_price:.2%} | +| **End Price** | {signal.end_price:.2%} | +| **Time Window** | {signal.window_seconds // 60} min | + +{'='*70} +## Analysis Results +{'='*70} + +| Field | Result | +|-------|--------| +| **Signal Type** | {signal_type_label.get(signal.signal_type, 'Unknown')} | +| **Confidence** | {signal.confidence:.1%} | +| **Is Leading Signal** | {'Yes' if signal.is_leading_signal else 'No'} | +| **Time Advantage** | {signal.time_advantage_minutes} min | + +**Earliest News Time**: {signal.earliest_news_time or 'N/A'} +**Earliest Social Time**: {signal.earliest_social_time or 'N/A'} + +## Key News +{news_headlines} + +## Key Social Posts +{social_posts} + +## Reasoning +{signal.reasoning} + +## Suspected Information Source +{signal.potential_information_source or 'Unknown'} + +{'='*70} +{signal.full_analysis} +{'='*70} +""" + return report + + def get_leading_signals_stats(self) -> dict: + """ + Get statistics about collected leading signals. + + Returns: + Dictionary with stats + """ + index_file = LEADING_SIGNALS_DIR / "signals_index.jsonl" + + if not index_file.exists(): + return { + "total_signals": 0, + "leading_signals": 0, + "news_driven": 0, + "social_driven": 0, + "speculation": 0, + } + + stats = { + "total_signals": 0, + "leading_signals": 0, + "news_driven": 0, + "social_driven": 0, + "speculation": 0, + "avg_time_advantage_minutes": 0, + } + + time_advantages = [] + + try: + with open(index_file, 'r', encoding='utf-8') as f: + for line in f: + if line.strip(): + data = json.loads(line) + stats["total_signals"] += 1 + + signal_type = data.get("signal_type", "SPECULATION") + if signal_type == "LEADING_SIGNAL": + stats["leading_signals"] += 1 + time_advantages.append(data.get("time_advantage_minutes", 0)) + elif signal_type == "NEWS_DRIVEN": + stats["news_driven"] += 1 + elif signal_type == "SOCIAL_DRIVEN": + stats["social_driven"] += 1 + else: + stats["speculation"] += 1 + + if time_advantages: + stats["avg_time_advantage_minutes"] = sum(time_advantages) / len(time_advantages) + + except Exception as e: + logger.error(f"Error reading signals index: {e}") + + return stats \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/src/services/web_search.py b/src/services/web_search.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..bb1a547 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/services/web_search.py @@ -0,0 +1,79 @@ +"""Unified web search with fallback: Tavily -> Serper -> DuckDuckGo.""" +import logging +from typing import Optional + +from src.services.tavily_search import TavilySearchService +from src.services.serper_search import SerperSearchService +from src.services.ddg_search import DDGSearchService + +logger = logging.getLogger(__name__) + +# Responses that indicate a search engine failed (not just "no results") +_FAILURE_KEYWORDS = ("API Error", "search failed", "unavailable", "exceeds your plan") + + +def _is_failure(result: str) -> bool: + return any(kw in result for kw in _FAILURE_KEYWORDS) + + +class WebSearchService: + """ + Unified web search with automatic fallback. + + Priority: Tavily (best quality) -> Serper -> DuckDuckGo (free). + Falls back to the next engine when the current one errors. + """ + + def __init__( + self, + tavily_api_key: str = "", + serper_api_key: str = "", + ): + self._engines = [] + + tavily = TavilySearchService(api_key=tavily_api_key) + if tavily.is_available(): + self._engines.append(("Tavily", tavily)) + + serper = SerperSearchService(api_key=serper_api_key) + if serper.is_available(): + self._engines.append(("Serper", serper)) + + ddg = DDGSearchService() + if ddg.is_available(): + self._engines.append(("DuckDuckGo", ddg)) + + if self._engines: + names = [name for name, _ in self._engines] + logger.info(f"Web search engines: {' -> '.join(names)}") + else: + logger.warning("No web search engine available.") + + def is_available(self) -> bool: + return len(self._engines) > 0 + + def search(self, query: str, max_results: int = 5) -> str: + if not self._engines: + return "Web search unavailable: no search engine configured." + + for name, engine in self._engines: + result = engine.search(query, max_results=max_results) + if _is_failure(result): + logger.warning(f"{name} search failed, trying next engine...") + continue + return result + + return f"All web search engines failed for: '{query}'" + + def search_for_market(self, market_question: str, max_results: int = 5) -> str: + if not self._engines: + return "Web search unavailable: no search engine configured." + + for name, engine in self._engines: + result = engine.search_for_market(market_question, max_results=max_results) + if _is_failure(result): + logger.warning(f"{name} market search failed, trying next engine...") + continue + return result + + return f"No relevant web results found for: {market_question[:50]}..." diff --git a/src/utils/__init__.py b/src/utils/__init__.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4e9de1b --- /dev/null +++ b/src/utils/__init__.py @@ -0,0 +1,4 @@ +"""Utilities module.""" +from .logger import setup_logging, get_logger + +__all__ = ["setup_logging", "get_logger"] diff --git a/src/utils/http.py b/src/utils/http.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6db5403 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/utils/http.py @@ -0,0 +1,32 @@ +"""Shared HTTP client factory with proxy support. + +All services that need httpx clients should import from here instead of +creating httpx.Client/AsyncClient directly. This ensures proxy settings +are applied consistently across the entire application. +""" +import httpx +from src.config.settings import get_settings + + +def get_proxy_config() -> str | None: + """Return proxy URL from settings, or None if not configured.""" + settings = get_settings() + proxy = settings.http_proxy.strip() + return proxy if proxy else None + + +def get_client(**kwargs) -> httpx.Client: + """Create a synchronous httpx.Client with proxy support.""" + proxy = get_proxy_config() + if proxy: + kwargs.setdefault("proxy", proxy) + kwargs.setdefault("timeout", 30.0) + return httpx.Client(**kwargs) + + +def get_async_client(**kwargs) -> httpx.AsyncClient: + """Create an asynchronous httpx.AsyncClient with proxy support.""" + proxy = get_proxy_config() + if proxy: + kwargs.setdefault("proxy", proxy) + return httpx.AsyncClient(**kwargs) \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/src/utils/logger.py b/src/utils/logger.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..9566fa1 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/utils/logger.py @@ -0,0 +1,120 @@ +"""Logging utilities.""" +import logging +import sys +from datetime import datetime +from typing import Optional + +from rich.console import Console +from rich.logging import RichHandler + +from src.config import get_settings + + +def setup_logging(level: Optional[str] = None) -> None: + """ + Set up application logging with rich formatting. + + Args: + level: Log level (DEBUG, INFO, WARNING, ERROR). Defaults to settings. + """ + settings = get_settings() + log_level = level or settings.log_level + + # Create rich console + console = Console() + + # Configure root logger + logging.basicConfig( + level=log_level, + format="%(message)s", + datefmt="[%X]", + handlers=[ + RichHandler( + console=console, + rich_tracebacks=True, + show_path=False, + ) + ], + ) + + # Reduce noise from third-party libraries + logging.getLogger("httpx").setLevel(logging.WARNING) + logging.getLogger("httpcore").setLevel(logging.WARNING) + logging.getLogger("openai").setLevel(logging.WARNING) + logging.getLogger("web3").setLevel(logging.WARNING) + + +def get_logger(name: str) -> logging.Logger: + """ + Get a logger instance. + + Args: + name: Logger name (usually __name__) + + Returns: + Logger instance + """ + return logging.getLogger(name) + + +class WhaleWatcherLogger: + """Custom logger for whale watcher with formatted output.""" + + def __init__(self): + self.console = Console() + self.logger = logging.getLogger("whale_watcher") + + def whale_detected( + self, + amount: float, + side: str, + price: float, + market: str, + ) -> None: + """Log a whale trade detection.""" + self.console.print( + f"\n[bold cyan]{'='*60}[/bold cyan]\n" + f"[bold yellow]🐋 WHALE TRADE DETECTED![/bold yellow]\n" + f"[bold cyan]{'='*60}[/bold cyan]\n" + f"[green]Amount:[/green] ${amount:,.2f} USDC\n" + f"[green]Side:[/green] {side}\n" + f"[green]Price:[/green] {price:.4f}\n" + f"[green]Market:[/green] {market}\n" + f"[green]Time:[/green] {datetime.now().strftime('%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S')}\n" + f"[bold cyan]{'='*60}[/bold cyan]\n" + ) + + def report_generated(self, market: str) -> None: + """Log that a report was generated.""" + self.console.print( + f"\n[bold magenta]{'='*60}[/bold magenta]\n" + f"[bold magenta]📊 ANALYSIS REPORT GENERATED[/bold magenta]\n" + f"[bold magenta]{'='*60}[/bold magenta]\n" + f"[green]Market:[/green] {market[:50]}...\n" + f"[bold magenta]{'='*60}[/bold magenta]\n" + ) + + def monitoring_started(self, market_count: int, interval: int = 0, min_trade_size: float = 1000, min_price: float = 0.2, max_price: float = 0.8) -> None: + """Log monitoring start.""" + self.console.print( + f"\n[bold green]{'='*60}[/bold green]\n" + f"[bold green]🚀 WHALE WATCHER STARTED (RTDS WebSocket)[/bold green]\n" + f"[bold green]{'='*60}[/bold green]\n" + f"[green]Monitored Markets:[/green] {market_count}\n" + f"[green]Mode:[/green] Real-time WebSocket (zero missed trades)\n" + f"[green]Min Trade Size:[/green] ${min_trade_size:,.0f} USD\n" + f"[green]Price Range:[/green] {min_price} - {max_price}\n" + f"[bold green]{'='*60}[/bold green]\n" + ) + + def error(self, message: str) -> None: + """Log an error.""" + self.console.print(f"[bold red]❌ ERROR:[/bold red] {message}") + + def info(self, message: str) -> None: + """Log an info message.""" + self.console.print(f"[blue]ℹ️[/blue] {message}") + + def separator(self) -> None: + """Print a separator line.""" + self.console.print(f"[dim]{'─'*60}[/dim]")