初步完成项目，可以监控给出入场信号

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+# Polymarket Copy Trader (Project B)
+
+**Quantitative copy-trading bot for Polymarket** — follows the top 1% of profitable wallets using Bayesian credibility updates + Kelly position sizing + Favorite-Longshot bias correction.
+
+## What's Different from Project A (Whale Watcher)
+
+| Aspect | Project A (whale-watcher) | Project B (copy-trader) |
+|---|---|---|
+| Goal | Detect "insider" trades via LLM | Mirror statistically profitable wallets |
+| LLM cost | $0.5-2 per signal | $0 (all math, no LLM) |
+| Win rate evidence | 63.5% on 250 signals | Expected ≥55% from top-1% PnL data |
+| Latency | Asynchronous | Real-time WebSocket |
+
+## Phase Plan
+
+- ✅ **Phase 0** (current): foundation, pool builder, Telegram notifier
+- ⏳ **Phase 1**: User WebSocket subscriber (one per wallet, get every trade in real-time)
+- ⏳ **Phase 2**: Signal aggregator (Softmax + Bayesian update + Kelly sizer)
+- ⏳ **Phase 3**: CLOB trader (optional, off by default — manual first)
+- ⏳ **Phase 4**: Dashboard (FastAPI for P&L tracking)
+
+## Architecture (target)
+
+```
+Data API ──┐
+           ├─→ Wallet Pool Builder ──→ SQLite (top 100 wallets)
+           │
+           └─→ Health score = f(PnL, trades, category diversity)
+                    ↓
+           User WebSocket (User channel) per wallet
+                    ↓
+           On each trade → check eligibility (size, price)
+                    ↓
+           Bayesian credibility update
+                    ↓
+           Softmax aggregation across wallets
+                    ↓
+           Kelly sizing + Favorite-Longshot correction
+                    ↓
+           Telegram notification + optional CLOB execution
+```
+
+## Running
+
+```bash
+# Local
+python -m src.main run
+
+# Docker (cloud)
+docker compose build --no-cache && docker compose up -d
+```
+
+## Configuration
+
+Copy `.env.example` to `.env` and fill in:
+- Polymarket Gamma + Data API (no auth needed for reads)
+- Telegram bot token + chat ID for notifications
+- CLOB credentials (only if enabling live execution)
+- Wallet pool criteria (PnL minimum, trade count, etc.)
+
+## Why this will (probably) make money
+
+- Polymarket data: **top 1% users capture 84% of all profits**
+- Their edge = identifying mispriced contracts, NOT insider info
+- Following their trades = systematic exposure to that edge
+- Bayesian updating = self-correcting when a wallet's skill degrades
+- Favorite-Longshot correction = avoid 70.8% user loss pattern
+
+## Disclaimer
+
+Backtesting not yet performed. Start with `ENABLE_EXECUTION=false` and observe signals via Telegram for 2-4 weeks before any live trading.