Files
mt5-correlation/mt5_correlation/correlation.py
T

581 lines
30 KiB
Python

import math
import logging
import pandas as pd
from datetime import datetime, timedelta
import time
import sched
import threading
import pytz
from scipy.stats.stats import pearsonr
import pickle
import inspect
import sys
from mt5_correlation.mt5 import MT5
class Correlation:
"""
A class to maintain the state of the calculated correlation coefficients.
"""
# Connection to metatrader
__mt5 = None
# Minimum base coefficient for monitoring. Symbol pairs with a lower correlation
# coefficient than ths won't be monitored.
monitoring_threshold = 0.9
# Toggle on whether we are monitoring or not. Set through start_monitor and stop_monitor
__monitoring = False
__monitoring_params = {}
# First run of scheduler
__first_run = True
# The price data used to calculate the correlations
__price_data = None
# The shortest timeframe (which is the largest value) for calculate_from. This will be used when we update
# the coefficient_data dataframe. All calculations for all values specified in calculate_from will be stored in
# coefficient_history, however only the shortest timeframe will be updated in coefficient_data.
__shortest_timeframe = None
# Coefficient data and history. Will be created in init call to __reset_coefficient_data
coefficient_data = None
coefficient_history = None
# Stores tick data used to calculate coefficient during Monitor.
# Dict: {Symbol: [retrieved datetime, ticks dataframe]}
__monitor_tick_data = {}
def __init__(self):
# Logger
self.__log = logging.getLogger(__name__)
# Connection to metatrader
self.__mt5 = MT5()
# Create dataframe for coefficient data
self.__reset_coefficient_data()
# Create timer for continuous monitoring
self.__scheduler = sched.scheduler(time.time, time.sleep)
@property
def filtered_coefficient_data(self):
"""
:return: Coefficient data filtered so that all base coefficients >= monitoring_threshold
"""
if self.coefficient_data is not None:
return self.coefficient_data.loc[self.coefficient_data['Base Coefficient'] >= self.monitoring_threshold]
else:
return None
def load(self, filename):
"""
Loads calculated coefficients, price data used to calculate them and tick data used during monitoring.
coefficients
:param filename: The filename for the coefficient data to load.
:return:
"""
# Load data
with open(filename, 'rb') as file:
loaded_dict = pickle.load(file)
# Get data from loaded dict and save
self.coefficient_data = loaded_dict["coefficient_data"]
self.__price_data = loaded_dict["price_data"]
self.__monitor_tick_data = loaded_dict["monitor_tick_data"]
self.coefficient_history = loaded_dict["coefficient_history"]
def save(self, filename):
"""
Saves the calculated coefficients, the price data used to calculate and the tick data for monitoring to a file.
:param filename: The filename to save the data to.
:return:
"""
# Add data to dict then use pickle to save
save_dict = {"coefficient_data": self.coefficient_data, "price_data": self.__price_data,
"monitor_tick_data": self.__monitor_tick_data, "coefficient_history": self.coefficient_history}
with open(filename, 'wb') as file:
pickle.dump(save_dict, file, protocol=pickle.HIGHEST_PROTOCOL)
def calculate(self, date_from, date_to, timeframe, min_prices=100, max_set_size_diff_pct=90, overlap_pct=90,
max_p_value=0.05):
"""
Calculates correlation coefficient between all symbols in MetaTrader5 Market Watch. Updates coefficient data.
:param date_from: From date for price data from which to calculate correlation coefficients
:param date_to: To date for price data from which to calculate correlation coefficients
:param timeframe: Timeframe for price data from which to calculate correlation coefficients
:param min_prices: The minimum number of prices that should be used to calculate coefficient. If this threshold
is not met then returned coefficient will be None
:param max_set_size_diff_pct: Correlations will only be calculated if the sizes of the two price data sets are
within this pct of each other
:param overlap_pct:
:param max_p_value: The maximum p value for the correlation to be meaningful
:return:
"""
coefficient = None
# If we are monitoring, stop. We will need to restart later
was_monitoring = self.__monitoring
if self.__monitoring:
self.stop_monitor()
# Clear the existing correlations
self.__reset_coefficient_data()
# Get all visible symbols
symbols = self.__mt5.get_symbols()
# Get price data for selected symbols. 1 week of 15 min OHLC data for each symbol. Add to dict.
self.__price_data = {}
for symbol in symbols:
self.__price_data[symbol] = self.__mt5.get_prices(symbol=symbol, from_date=date_from, to_date=date_to,
timeframe=timeframe)
# Loop through all symbol pair combinations and calculate coefficient. Make sure you don't double count pairs
# eg. (USD/GBP AUD/USD vs AUD/USD USD/GBP). Use grid of all symbols with i and j axis. j starts at i + 1 to
# avoid duplicating. We will store all coefficients in a dataframe for export as CSV.
index = 0
# There will be (x^2 - x) / 2 pairs where x is number of symbols
num_pair_combinations = int((len(symbols) ** 2 - len(symbols)) / 2)
for i in range(0, len(symbols)):
symbol1 = symbols[i]
for j in range(i + 1, len(symbols)):
symbol2 = symbols[j]
index += 1
# Get price data for both symbols
symbol1_price_data = self.__price_data[symbol1]
symbol2_price_data = self.__price_data[symbol2]
# Get coefficient
if symbol1_price_data is not None and symbol2_price_data is not None:
coefficient = self.calculate_coefficient(symbol1_prices=symbol1_price_data,
symbol2_prices=symbol2_price_data,
min_prices=min_prices,
max_set_size_diff_pct=max_set_size_diff_pct,
overlap_pct=overlap_pct, max_p_value=max_p_value)
# Store if valid
if coefficient is not None:
self.coefficient_data = \
self.coefficient_data.append({'Symbol 1': symbol1, 'Symbol 2': symbol2,
'Base Coefficient': coefficient, 'UTC Date From': date_from,
'UTC Date To': date_to, 'Timeframe': timeframe},
ignore_index=True)
self.__log.debug(f"Pair {index} of {num_pair_combinations}: {symbol1}:{symbol2} has a "
f"coefficient of {coefficient}.")
else:
self.__log.debug(f"Coefficient for pair {index} of {num_pair_combinations}: {symbol1}:"
f"{symbol2} could no be calculated.")
# Sort, highest correlated first
self.coefficient_data = self.coefficient_data.sort_values('Base Coefficient', ascending=False)
# If we were monitoring, we stopped, so start again.
if was_monitoring:
self.start_monitor(interval=self.__monitoring_params['interval'],
calculate_from=self.__monitoring_params['calculate_from'],
min_prices=self.__monitoring_params['min_prices'],
max_set_size_diff_pct=self.__monitoring_params['max_set_size_diff_pct'],
overlap_pct=self.__monitoring_params['overlap_pct'],
max_p_value=self.__monitoring_params['max_p_value'])
def get_price_data(self, symbol):
"""
Returns the price data used to calculate the base coefficients for the specified symbol
:param symbol: Symbol to get price data for.
:return: price data
"""
price_data = None
if symbol in self.__price_data:
price_data = self.__price_data[symbol]
return price_data
def start_monitor(self, interval, calculate_from, min_prices=100, max_set_size_diff_pct=90,
overlap_pct=90, max_p_value=0.05, cache_time=10, autosave=False, filename='autosave.cpd'):
"""
Starts monitor to continuously update the coefficient for all symbol pairs in that meet the min_coefficient
threshold.
:param interval: How often to check in seconds
:param calculate_from: The number of minutes of tick data to use for calculation. This can be a single value or
a list. If a list, then calculations will be performed for every from date in list.
:param min_prices: The minimum number of prices that should be used to calculate coefficient. If this threshold
is not met then returned coefficient will be None
:param max_set_size_diff_pct: Correlations will only be calculated if the sizes of the two price data sets are
within this pct of each other
:param overlap_pct:
:param max_p_value: The maximum p value for the correlation to be meaningful
:param cache_time: Tick data is cached so that we can check coefficients for multiple symbol pairs and reuse
the tick data. Number of seconds to cache tick data for before it becomes stale.
:param autosave: Whether to autosave after every monitor run. If there is no filename specified then will
create one named autosave.cpd
:param filename: Filename for autosave. Default is autosave.cpd.
:return: correlation coefficient, or None if coefficient could not be calculated.
"""
if self.__monitoring:
self.__log.debug(f"Request to start monitor when monitor is already running. Monitor will be stopped and"
f"restarted with new parameters.")
self.stop_monitor()
self.__log.debug(f"Starting monitor.")
self.__monitoring = True
# Store the shortest timeframe (which is the largest value) for calculate_from. This will be used when we update
# the coefficient_data dataframe. All calculations for all values specified in calculate_from will be stored in
# coefficient_history, however only the shortest timeframe will be updated in coefficient_data.
self.__shortest_timeframe = min(calculate_from) if isinstance(calculate_from, list) else calculate_from
# Create thread to run monitoring This will call private __monitor method that will run the calculation and
# keep scheduling itself while self.monitoring is True. Store the params. We will need to use these if we have
# to stop and restart the monitor. Note, this happens during calculate
self.__monitoring_params = {'interval': interval, 'calculate_from': calculate_from,
'min_prices': min_prices,
'max_set_size_diff_pct': max_set_size_diff_pct, 'overlap_pct': overlap_pct,
'max_p_value': max_p_value, 'cache_time': cache_time, 'autosave': autosave,
'filename': filename}
thread = threading.Thread(target=self.__monitor, kwargs=self.__monitoring_params)
thread.start()
def stop_monitor(self):
"""
Stops monitoring symbol pairs for correlation.
:return:
"""
if self.__monitoring:
self.__log.debug(f"Stopping monitor.")
self.__monitoring = False
else:
self.__log.debug(f"Request to stop monitor when it is not running. No action taken.")
def calculate_coefficient(self, symbol1_prices, symbol2_prices, min_prices: int = 100,
max_set_size_diff_pct: int = 90, overlap_pct: int = 90,
max_p_value: float = 0.05):
"""
Calculates the correlation coefficient between two sets of price data. Uses close price.
:param symbol1_prices: Pandas dataframe containing prices for symbol 1
:param symbol2_prices: Pandas dataframe containing prices for symbol 2
:param min_prices: The minimum number of prices that should be used to calculate coefficient. If this threshold
is not met then returned coefficient will be None
:param max_set_size_diff_pct: Correlations will only be calculated if the sizes of the two price data sets are
within this pct of each other
:param overlap_pct:
:param max_p_value: The maximum p value for the correlation to be meaningful
:return: correlation coefficient, or None if coefficient could not be calculated.
:rtype: float or None
"""
assert symbol1_prices is not None and symbol2_prices is not None
# Calculate size of intersection and determine if prices for symbols have enough overlapping timestamps for
# correlation coefficient calculation to be meaningful. Is the smallest set at least max_set_size_diff_pct % of
# the size of the largest set and is the overlap set size at least overlap_pct % the size of the smallest set?
coefficient = None
intersect_dates = (set(symbol1_prices['time']) & set(symbol2_prices['time']))
len_smallest_set = int(min([len(symbol1_prices.index), len(symbol2_prices.index)]))
len_largest_set = int(max([len(symbol1_prices.index), len(symbol2_prices.index)]))
similar_size = len_largest_set * (max_set_size_diff_pct / 100) <= len_smallest_set
enough_overlap = len(intersect_dates) >= len_smallest_set * (overlap_pct / 100)
enough_prices = len_smallest_set >= min_prices
suitable = similar_size and enough_overlap and enough_prices
if suitable:
# Calculate coefficient on close prices
# First filter prices to only include those that intersect
symbol1_prices_filtered = symbol1_prices[symbol1_prices['time'].isin(intersect_dates)]
symbol2_prices_filtered = symbol2_prices[symbol2_prices['time'].isin(intersect_dates)]
# Calculate coefficient. Only use if p value is < 0.01 (highly likely that coefficient is valid and null
# hypothesis is false).
coefficient_with_p_value = pearsonr(symbol1_prices_filtered['close'], symbol2_prices_filtered['close'])
coefficient = None if coefficient_with_p_value[1] > max_p_value else coefficient_with_p_value[0]
# If NaN, change to None
if coefficient is not None and math.isnan(coefficient):
coefficient = None
self.__log.debug(f"Calculate coefficient returning {coefficient}. "
f"Symbol 1 Prices: {len(symbol1_prices)} Symbol 2 Prices: {len(symbol2_prices)} "
f"Overlap Prices: {len(intersect_dates)} Similar size: {similar_size} "
f"Enough overlap: {enough_overlap} Enough prices: {enough_prices} Suitable: {suitable}.")
return coefficient
def get_coefficient_history(self, symbol1, symbol2, timeframe=None):
"""
Returns the coefficient history for the specified symbol pair calculated during this instance.
Coefficient history does not persist between instances.
:param symbol1:
:param symbol2:
:param timeframe: Only return history for the specified timeframe. If None, this is ignored and all history
records are returned for the specified symbols
:return: dataframe containing history of coefficient data.
"""
history = self.coefficient_history[(self.coefficient_history['Symbol 1'] == symbol1) &
(self.coefficient_history['Symbol 2'] == symbol2)]
# If calculate from was specified, filter on it.
if timeframe is not None:
history = history[(history['Timeframe'] == timeframe)]
return history
def get_ticks(self, symbol, date_from=None, date_to=None, cache_time=0, cache_only=False):
"""
Returns the ticks for the specified symbol. Get's from cache if available and not older than cache_timeframe.
:param symbol: Name of symbol to get ticks for.
:param date_from: Date to get ticks from. Can only be None if getting from cache (cache_only=True)
:param date_to:Date to get ticks to. Can only be None if getting from cache (cache_only=True)
:param cache_time: Number of seconds before cached data is stale. If > than this number of seconds has elapsed,
get data from source and refresh cache.
:param cache_only: Only retrieve from cache. cache_time is ignored. Returns None if symbol is not available in
cache.
:return:
"""
timezone = pytz.timezone("Etc/UTC")
utc_now = datetime.now(tz=timezone)
ticks = None
# Cache only
if cache_only:
if symbol in self.__monitor_tick_data:
ticks = self.__monitor_tick_data[symbol][1]
# Check if we already have it and it is not stale
elif symbol in self.__monitor_tick_data and utc_now < \
self.__monitor_tick_data[symbol][0] + timedelta(seconds=cache_time):
# Cached ticks are not stale. Get them
ticks = self.__monitor_tick_data[symbol][1]
self.__log.debug(f"Ticks for {symbol} retrieved from cache.")
else:
# Data does not exist in cache or cached data is stale. Retrieve from source and cache.
ticks = self.__mt5.get_ticks(symbol=symbol, from_date=date_from, to_date=date_to)
self.__monitor_tick_data[symbol] = [utc_now, ticks]
self.__log.debug(f"Ticks for {symbol} retrieved from source and cached.")
return ticks
def __monitor(self, interval, calculate_from, min_prices=100, max_set_size_diff_pct=90,
overlap_pct=90, max_p_value=0.05, cache_time=10, autosave=False, filename='autosave.cpd'):
"""
The actual monitor method. Private. This should not be called outside of this class. Use start_monitoring and
stop_monitoring.
:param interval: How often to check in seconds
:param calculate_from: The number of minutes of tick data to use for calculation. This can be a single value or
a list. If a list, then calculations will be performed for every from date in list.
:param min_prices: The minimum number of prices that should be used to calculate coefficient. If this threshold
is not met then returned coefficient will be None
:param max_set_size_diff_pct: Correlations will only be calculated if the sizes of the two price data sets are
within this pct of each other
:param overlap_pct:
:param max_p_value: The maximum p value for the correlation to be meaningful
:param cache_time: Tick data is cached so that we can check coefficients for multiple symbol pairs and reuse
the tick data. Number of seconds to cache tick data for before it becomes stale.
:param autosave: Whether to autosave after every monitor run. If there is no filename specified then will
create one named autosave.cpd
:param filename: Filename for autosave. Default is autosave.cpd.
:return: correlation coefficient, or None if coefficient could not be calculated.
"""
self.__log.debug(f"In monitor event. Monitoring: {self.__monitoring}.")
# Only run if monitor is not stopped
if self.__monitoring:
# Update all coefficients
self.__update_all_coefficients(calculate_from=calculate_from,
min_prices=min_prices, max_set_size_diff_pct=max_set_size_diff_pct,
overlap_pct=overlap_pct, max_p_value=max_p_value, cache_time=cache_time)
# Autosave
if autosave:
self.save(filename=filename)
# Schedule the timer to run again
params = {'interval': interval, 'calculate_from': calculate_from,
'min_prices': min_prices, 'max_set_size_diff_pct': max_set_size_diff_pct,
'overlap_pct': overlap_pct, 'max_p_value': max_p_value, "cache_time": cache_time,
'autosave': autosave, 'filename': filename}
self.__scheduler.enter(delay=interval, priority=1, action=self.__monitor, kwargs=params)
# Log the stack. Debug stack overflow
self.__log.debug(f"Current stack size: {len(inspect.stack())} Recursion limit: {sys.getrecursionlimit()}")
# Run
if self.__first_run:
self.__first_run = False
self.__scheduler.run()
def __update_coefficients(self, symbol1, symbol2, calculate_from, min_prices=100,
max_set_size_diff_pct=90, overlap_pct=90, max_p_value=0.05, cache_time=10):
"""
Updates the long and short coefficients for the specified symbol pair
:param symbol1: Name of symbol to calculate coefficient for.
:param symbol2: Name of symbol to calculate coefficient for.
:param calculate_from: The number of minutes of tick data to use for calculation. This can be a single value or
a list. If a list, then calculations will be performed for every from date in list.
:param min_prices: The minimum number of prices that should be used to calculate coefficient. If this threshold
is not met then returned coefficient will be None
:param max_set_size_diff_pct: Correlations will only be calculated if the sizes of the two price data sets are
within this pct of each other
:param overlap_pct:
:param max_p_value: The maximum p value for the correlation to be meaningful
:param cache_time: Tick data is cached so that we can check coefficients for multiple symbol pairs and reuse
the tick data. Number of seconds to cache tick data for before it becomes stale.
:return: correlation coefficient, or None if coefficient could not be calculated.
"""
# Convert calculate from to list of one if only one value is provided
if not isinstance(calculate_from, list):
calculate_from = [calculate_from, ]
# Get dates
# From and to dates for calculations. From should be furthest away if list is provided in calculate_from
timezone = pytz.timezone("Etc/UTC")
date_to = datetime.now(tz=timezone)
date_from = date_to - timedelta(minutes=max(calculate_from))
# Get the tick data for the longest timeframe calculation. We will extract shorter timeframes from it if list
# was provided in calculate_from to avoid retrieving multiple times.
symbol1ticks = self.get_ticks(symbol=symbol1, date_from=date_from, date_to=date_to, cache_time=cache_time)
symbol2ticks = self.get_ticks(symbol=symbol2, date_from=date_from, date_to=date_to, cache_time=cache_time)
# Resample to 1 sec OHLC, this will help with coefficient calculation ensuring that we dont have more than
# one tick per second and ensuring that times can match. We will need to set the index to time for the
# resample then revert back to a 'time' column. We will then need to remove rows with nan in 'close' price
if symbol1ticks is not None and symbol2ticks is not None and len(symbol1ticks.index) > 0 and \
len(symbol2ticks.index) > 0:
try:
symbol1ticks = symbol1ticks.set_index('time')
symbol2ticks = symbol2ticks.set_index('time')
s1_prices = symbol1ticks['ask'].resample('1S').ohlc()
s2_prices = symbol2ticks['ask'].resample('1S').ohlc()
except RecursionError:
self.__log.warning(f"Coefficient could not be calculated for {symbol1}:{symbol2}. prices could not "
f"be resampled.")
else:
s1_prices.reset_index(inplace=True)
s2_prices.reset_index(inplace=True)
s1_prices = s1_prices[s1_prices['close'].notna()]
s2_prices = s2_prices[s2_prices['close'].notna()]
# Calculate for all timeframes
for from_mins in calculate_from:
# Get the from date as a datetime64
date_from_subset = pd.Timestamp(date_to - timedelta(minutes=from_mins)).to_datetime64()
# Get subset of the price data
s1_prices_subset = s1_prices[(s1_prices['time'] >= date_from_subset)]
s2_prices_subset = s2_prices[(s2_prices['time'] >= date_from_subset)]
# Calculate the coefficient
coefficient = \
self.calculate_coefficient(symbol1_prices=s1_prices_subset, symbol2_prices=s2_prices_subset,
min_prices=min_prices, max_set_size_diff_pct=max_set_size_diff_pct,
overlap_pct=overlap_pct, max_p_value=max_p_value)
self.__log.debug(f"Symbol pair {symbol1}:{symbol2} has a coefficient of {coefficient} for last "
f"{from_mins} minutes.")
# Update the coefficient data
if coefficient is not None:
self.__update_coefficient_data(symbol1=symbol1, symbol2=symbol2, coefficient=coefficient,
timeframe=from_mins, date_from=date_from_subset, date_to=date_to)
def __update_all_coefficients(self, calculate_from, min_prices=100, max_set_size_diff_pct=90,
overlap_pct=90, max_p_value=0.05, cache_time=10):
"""
Updates the coefficient for all symbol pairs in that meet the min_coefficient threshold. Symbol pairs that meet
the threshold can be accessed through the filtered_coefficient_data property.
:param calculate_from: The number of minutes of tick data to use for calculation. This can be a single value or
a list. If a list, then calculations will be performed for every from date in list.
:param min_prices: The minimum number of prices that should be used to calculate coefficient. If this threshold
is not met then returned coefficient will be None
:param max_set_size_diff_pct: Correlations will only be calculated if the sizes of the two price data sets are
within this pct of each other
:param overlap_pct:
:param max_p_value: The maximum p value for the correlation to be meaningful
:param cache_time: Tick data is cached so that we can check coefficients for multiple symbol pairs and reuse
the tick data. Number of seconds to cache tick data for before it becomes stale.
:return: correlation coefficient, or None if coefficient could not be calculated.
"""
# Update latest coefficient for every pair
for index, row in self.filtered_coefficient_data.iterrows():
symbol1 = row['Symbol 1']
symbol2 = row['Symbol 2']
self.__update_coefficients(symbol1=symbol1, symbol2=symbol2, calculate_from=calculate_from,
min_prices=min_prices, max_set_size_diff_pct=max_set_size_diff_pct,
overlap_pct=overlap_pct, max_p_value=max_p_value, cache_time=cache_time)
def __reset_coefficient_data(self):
"""
Clears coefficient data and history.
:return:
"""
# Create dataframes for coefficient data.
coefficient_data_columns = ['Symbol 1', 'Symbol 2', 'Base Coefficient', 'UTC Date From', 'UTC Date To',
'Timeframe', 'Last Check', 'Last Coefficient']
self.coefficient_data = pd.DataFrame(columns=coefficient_data_columns)
# Create dataframes for coefficient history.
coefficient_history_columns = ['Symbol 1', 'Symbol 2', 'Coefficient', 'Timeframe', 'Date From', 'Date To']
self.coefficient_history = pd.DataFrame(columns=coefficient_history_columns)
# Clear price data and tick data
self.__price_data = None
self.__monitor_tick_data = {}
def __update_coefficient_data(self, symbol1, symbol2, coefficient, timeframe, date_from, date_to):
"""
Updates the coefficient data with the latest coefficient and adds to coefficient history.
:param symbol1:
:param symbol2:
:param coefficient: The coefficient calculated
:param timeframe: The number of minutes of price data used to calculate the coefficient
:param date_from: The date from for which the coefficient was calculated
:param date_to: The date from for which the coefficient was calculated
:return:
"""
timezone = pytz.timezone("Etc/UTC")
now = datetime.now(tz=timezone)
# Update data if we have a coefficient and add to history
if coefficient is not None:
# The coefficient data table is only updated for the shortest calculation timeframe.
if timeframe == self.__shortest_timeframe:
self.coefficient_data.loc[(self.coefficient_data['Symbol 1'] == symbol1) &
(self.coefficient_data['Symbol 2'] == symbol2),
'Last Check'] = now
self.coefficient_data.loc[(self.coefficient_data['Symbol 1'] == symbol1) &
(self.coefficient_data['Symbol 2'] == symbol2),
'Last Coefficient'] = coefficient
# However the history data is always updated
row = pd.DataFrame(columns=self.coefficient_history.columns,
data=[[symbol1, symbol2, coefficient, timeframe, date_from, date_to]])
self.coefficient_history = self.coefficient_history.append(row)