"""Walk-Forward Optimization -- find robust parameters across time (Pro). Demonstrates: - run_walk_forward() with anchored method - param() for sweep-able parameters - Walk-forward fold results inspection Usage: python examples/07_walk_forward.py """ import os import time import manifoldbt as mbt from manifoldbt.indicators import close, ema from manifoldbt.helpers import time_range, Slippage, Interval # -- Strategy with tunable parameters ---------------------------------------- # The sweep engine substitutes each grid value into the param() references at # runtime. The period MUST be param("..."): a hardcoded int compiles every # combo to the same strategy, so the sweep becomes a silent no-op. fast = ema(close, mbt.param("fast", default=12)) slow = ema(close, mbt.param("slow", default=26)) signal = mbt.when(fast > slow, 1.0, mbt.when(fast < slow, -1.0, 0.0)) strategy = ( mbt.Strategy.create("wfo_ema") .signal("fast", fast) .signal("slow", slow) .size(signal * 0.25) .describe("EMA crossover with walk-forward parameter optimization") ) # -- Config ------------------------------------------------------------------- start, end = time_range("2021-01-01", "2025-01-01") config = mbt.BacktestConfig( universe={"binance": ["BTC-USDT:perp"]}, time_range_start=start, time_range_end=end, bar_interval=Interval.hours(12), initial_capital=10_000, execution=mbt.ExecutionConfig( allow_short=True, max_position_pct=0.5, ), fees=mbt.FeeConfig.binance_perps(), slippage=Slippage.fixed_bps(2), warmup_bars=60, ) # -- Run ---------------------------------------------------------------------- if __name__ == "__main__": root = os.path.join(os.path.dirname(__file__), "..") data_root = os.path.abspath(os.path.join(root, "data")) store = mbt.DataStore( data_root=data_root, metadata_db=os.path.abspath(os.path.join(root, "metadata", "metadata.sqlite")), arrow_dir=os.path.join(data_root, "mega"), ) wf_config = { "method": "Anchored", "n_splits": 5, "train_ratio": 0.7, "optimize_metric": "sharpe", "param_grid": { "fast": [5, 8, 12, 16, 20], "slow": [25, 35, 50], }, "max_parallelism": 0, } print("Running walk-forward optimization (Pro)...\n") t0 = time.perf_counter() result = mbt.run_walk_forward(strategy, wf_config, config, store) elapsed = time.perf_counter() - t0 folds = result.get("folds", []) metric = wf_config["optimize_metric"] def unwrap(params): # best_params values are ScalarValue dicts, e.g. {"Int64": 20} -> 20 return {k: (next(iter(v.values())) if isinstance(v, dict) else v) for k, v in params.items()} for i, fold in enumerate(folds): is_m = fold["is_metrics"][metric] oos_m = fold["oos_metrics"][metric] params = unwrap(fold["best_params"]) print(f" Fold {i+1}: IS {metric}={is_m:+.3f} OOS {metric}={oos_m:+.3f} params={params}") print(f"\n{len(folds)} folds in {elapsed:.2f}s") if folds: mbt.plot.walk_forward({"optimize_metric": metric, "folds": folds})