gmgn-skills/docs/workflow-risk-warning.md

Risk Warning — Structured Checklist Workflow

Use this workflow to assess whether a token currently held or being considered shows active risk signals: whale exit, liquidity drain, or developer dump.

Use this workflow when:

• "are any whales dumping this token?"
• "is the liquidity still healthy?"
• "are there any signs the developer is exiting?"
• "risk warning" / "is this project still safe to hold?"
• User wants to check if a held position is turning dangerous

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Step 1 — Token Security Snapshot

gmgn-cli token security --chain <chain> --address <token_address>

Immediate red flags (any one triggers danger):

Field	Danger Signal
is_honeypot	"yes" → sells are blocked, exit impossible (BSC/Base only)
rug_ratio	> 0.3 → high rug pull probability
top_10_holder_rate	> 0.5 → extreme concentration, whale exit risk
creator_token_status	creator_hold → dev still holds, dump risk active
renounced_mint (SOL)	false → dev can inflate supply at any time
renounced_freeze_account (SOL)	false → dev can freeze wallets
sell_tax	> 0.10 → exit penalty is severe
bundler_rate	> 0.3 → heavily bot-bundled at launch, artificial price support
rat_trader_amount_rate	> 0.3 → insider trading detected
is_wash_trading	true → volume is fake

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Step 2 — Liquidity Check

gmgn-cli token pool --chain <chain> --address <token_address>

Check for liquidity drain:

• Current liquidity (USD): < $10k = extreme exit slippage risk
• Liquidity vs earlier baseline: if you have a prior reading, compare. A drop of > 30% in a short period is a warning signal.
• Pool age (creation_timestamp): very new pools (< 1h) combined with other risk signals = high risk.
• DEX (exchange): verify it's a known DEX (Raydium, Uniswap, PancakeSwap). Unknown or single-sided pools are suspicious.

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Step 3 — Whale Holder Analysis

# Top holders by supply percentage
gmgn-cli token holders --chain <chain> --address <token_address> \
  --order-by amount_percentage --direction desc --limit 20

# Smart money holders — are they still in?
gmgn-cli token holders --chain <chain> --address <token_address> \
  --tag smart_degen --order-by amount_percentage --direction desc --limit 20

Warning signals:

• Concentration: top 1–3 wallets hold > 20% combined → single exit can crash price
• Smart money exodus: zero or declining smart_degen holders = conviction leaving
• Wallet tags: wallets tagged bundler or rat_trader in top holders = insider concentration risk

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Step 4 — Recent Trade Flow (Smart Money Direction)

gmgn-cli track smartmoney --chain <chain>

Filter results for the token address in question. Check:

• Are smart money wallets selling this token recently? (is_open_or_close = 1 on sell side for kol/smartmoney)
• Is price_change on recent smart money buys negative? (their entry is underwater — they may exit)
• Cluster of sells from multiple tracked wallets = strong exit signal

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Step 5 — Price and Volume Anomaly (K-line)

gmgn-cli market kline --chain <chain> --address <token_address> \
  --resolution 1h

Look for:

• Volume spike without price increase — selling pressure absorbing buy volume
• Price drop with volume spike — active dump in progress
• Volume collapse — liquidity evaporating, exit windows closing
• Consecutive red candles after ATH — distribution phase

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Risk Summary Output

After running all steps, output a structured risk verdict:

Risk Assessment: {TOKEN_SYMBOL} ({short_address})
Chain: {chain} | Checked: {timestamp}

─── Security ───────────────────────────────
Honeypot:            ✅ No / 🚫 YES — exit blocked
Rug ratio:           ✅ {X} / ⚠️ {X} / 🚫 {X} (> 0.3 danger)
Mint renounced:      ✅ Yes / 🚫 No
Dev holding:         ✅ Sold / 🚫 Still holding — dump risk

─── Liquidity ──────────────────────────────
Current liquidity:   ${X}  [✅ healthy / ⚠️ low / 🚫 critical]
Pool age:            {X} hours/days

─── Whale Concentration ────────────────────
Top 10 hold rate:    {X}%  [✅ < 20% / ⚠️ 20–50% / 🚫 > 50%]
Smart money holders: {N} wallets still in

─── Smart Money Flow ───────────────────────
Recent smart money: Buying ✅ / Mixed ⚠️ / Selling 🚫

─── Price Action ───────────────────────────
1h volume trend:     Normal / Spike (selling pressure) / Collapsing
Recent candles:      Accumulation / Distribution / Neutral

─── Overall Verdict ────────────────────────
🟢 No active risk signals — position appears stable
🟡 Watch closely — 1–2 warning signals present, monitor daily
🔴 HIGH RISK — multiple danger signals, consider exiting

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Related Workflows

• workflow-token-research.md — full pre-buy due diligence
• workflow-project-deep-report.md — comprehensive project analysis