diff --git a/skills/gmgn-holder-analysis/SKILL.md b/skills/gmgn-holder-analysis/SKILL.md index a7f1745..1948327 100644 --- a/skills/gmgn-holder-analysis/SKILL.md +++ b/skills/gmgn-holder-analysis/SKILL.md @@ -27,727 +27,33 @@ python3 ~/.claude/skills/gmgn-holder-analysis/analyze.py After the script finishes, paste the complete stdout verbatim into your reply — every line, every section, nothing omitted or summarized. Do NOT add any introduction, commentary, or summary before or after the output block. - - - ## Field Reference +All holding percentages the script prints are **share of tradeable float** (`1 - burn - DEX`), not +share of total supply. `amount_percentage` from the API is share of total supply; the script +re-bases it. Because only the top 100 holders are fetched, a float percentage is a floor **when +those 100 wallets do not cover the whole float**; the footer reports the actual coverage and states +which case applies — floors when coverage <99.5%, complete values when the top 100 cover all of it. + +When burn + DEX leave less than 2% of supply tradeable (typically a launchpad token before +migration), the float denominator degenerates: every `/ float_share` inflates dust wallets to +double digits or 100%. The script detects this, prints a banner with absolute token/USD figures +instead, and sets the rating to ⚪ Cannot Assess. + +The same suppression applies when `token holders` returns an empty list (token has no active +holders left, or upstream stopped indexing it). Every percentage would render 0.00% and every +threshold would pass, so the report would otherwise read "✅ Normal — no obvious dump risk". The +script prints a no-data banner instead, replaces each "none found 🟢" line with ⚪, and rates +⚪ Cannot Assess. "No data" is never reported as "no risk". + +In both cases **no float percentage is printed at all** — every one renders as `n/a` (`无法评估`) +and every percentage flag renders ⚪. Printing the number with a caveat was not enough: a +divide-by-zero float puts `hold 100.00%` and `hold 0.00%` in the same report, and a reader +skimming past the banner reads `Rat Trader 1 hold 100.00%` as a finding. Wallet counts, token +amounts, USD values, and market caps still print — they do not pass through `float_share`. +Percentages on a **total-supply** basis also still print (`burn`, `DEX`, float share itself, and +the chip-quality buckets), because those denominators are unaffected. + ### Holder object key fields | Field | Type | Meaning | @@ -760,17 +66,23 @@ PYEOF | `unrealized_pnl` | float | Unrealized PnL ratio (0.5 = +50%) | | `unrealized_profit` | float | Unrealized PnL in USD | | `realized_profit` | float | Realized PnL in USD | +| `profit` | float | Total PnL in USD (realized + unrealized). Also a valid `--order-by` field. | | `buy_tx_count_cur` | int | Buy transactions since token creation | | `sell_tx_count_cur` | int | Sell transactions since token creation | -| `sell_amount_percentage` | float | Fraction of total buys that have been sold | +| `sell_amount_percentage` | float | Fraction of total buys that have been sold. Drives the accumulating/distributing verdict. | +| `sell_volume_cur` | float | USD volume sold since token creation | +| `sell_amount_cur` | float | Token amount sold since token creation | +| `history_transfer_out_amount` | float | Token amount transferred out (not sold) | +| `history_transfer_out_income` | float | USD value of transferred-out tokens | +| `token_transfer_out` | object | `{address}` — recipient of a transfer-out. Used to detect dev sock puppets when the recipient is itself in the top 100. | +| `name` | string | Wallet display name if known | | `start_holding_at` | int | Unix timestamp of first buy | | `addr_type` | int | 0=normal wallet, 1=burn/dead, 2=DEX/pool | | `maker_token_tags` | list | `bundler`, `rat_trader`, `sniper`, `whale`, `top_holder`, `transfer_in`, `dev_team`, `creator` | -| `tags` | list | `smart_degen`, `pump_smart`, `renowned`, `fresh_wallet`, `wash_trader`, `fomo`, `kol` | -| `native_balance` | string | Raw native token balance (SOL: lamports /1e9; EVM: wei /1e18) | -| `native_transfer` | object | `{from_address, amount, timestamp}` — how wallet was funded | +| `tags` | list | `smart_degen`, `pump_smart`, `renowned`, `fresh_wallet`, `wash_trader`, `kol` | +| `native_balance` | string | Raw native token balance. May be a **decimal string** — parse with `float`, not `int`. Denominator is known only for `sol` (1e9) and `bsc`/`eth`/`base` (1e18). | +| `native_transfer` | object | `{from_address, amount, timestamp}` — how wallet was funded. Drives 关联资金. | | `twitter_name` | string | Twitter handle if known | -| `exchange` | string | DEX name for pool wallets | ### Created-tokens response fields @@ -779,22 +91,65 @@ PYEOF | `inner_count` | Unmigrated token count | | `open_count` | Migrated token count | | `tokens[].market_cap` | Current market cap in USD | +| `tokens[].symbol` | Token symbol | | `tokens[].is_open` | true = migrated | | `creator_ath_info.ath_mc` | All-time high MC across all created tokens | | `creator_ath_info.ath_token` | Token address of the ATH token | | `creator_ath_info.token_symbol` | Symbol of the ATH token | +| `creator_ath_info.token_name` | Name of the ATH token | ## Rating Standard +All thresholds below are **share of tradeable float**, matching the script. They are not +comparable to GMGN's own UI, which reports share of total supply — on a token whose LP holds 56% +of supply, the same wallet reads 2.4× higher here. + Entry timing pressure (批次浮盈/出货) does **NOT** affect the overall rating — it only affects section display. | Rating (ZH) | Rating (EN) | Emoji | Condition | |-------------|-------------|-------|-----------| -| 不建议买 | Not Recommended | 🔴 | Any: rat traders >10% / largest wallet >15% / dev sock puppet | -| 谨慎参与 | Caution | ⚠️ | ≥2 of: Dev still holding / airdrop >15% / risk wallets >30% / linked >10% | +| 无法评估 | Cannot Assess | ⚪ | Tradeable float <2% of supply, **or** upstream returned zero holders (all percentage rules suppressed; dev sock puppet still escalates to 🔴) | +| 不建议买 | Not Recommended | 🔴 | Any: rat traders >5% / largest wallet >10% / dev sock puppet | +| 谨慎参与 | Caution | ⚠️ | ≥2 of: Dev still holding >1% / airdrop >20% / risk wallets >35% / linked >15% | | 可轻仓 | Light Position | 🟡 | Exactly 1 of above warns | | 正常参与 | Normal | ✅ | None of the above | +### Per-metric flag thresholds + +| Metric | 🔴 | 🟡 | 🟢 | +|--------|----|----|----| +| Top10 concentration | >60% | >40% | ≤40% | +| Top20 concentration | >75% | >55% | ≤55% | +| Airdropped chips (never bought) | >25% | >10% | ≤10% | +| Risk wallets | >35% | >15% | ≤15% | +| Linked funding | >25% | >10% | ≤10% | +| Zero-balance wallets | — | >10% | ≤10% | + +Diamond hands invert (more is better) and use their own emoji set: ✅ >60% / 🟡 >35% / ⚠️ ≤35%. +Diamond hands require `buy_tx_count_cur > 0` — a wallet that never bought has no cost to hold +through, so zero-cost airdrop recipients are reported separately as "空降未动 / Idle airdrop" +rather than being credited as diamond hands. + +Linked funding is escalated to at least 🟡 whenever any group was funded within 60s, regardless of +size — scripted batch funding is a structural signal, not a magnitude one. + +### Chip quality (footer) + +Three mutually exclusive buckets over the chips held by observed wallets (denominator is +`normal_pct`, i.e. total-supply basis, not float): **bought in with no risk tag** / **zero-cost +airdrop** / **risk-tagged**. They are reported separately rather than collapsed into one +"healthy chips" number, because a risk tag means a proven-bad address while zero-cost airdrop only +means unknown provenance. + +Headline flag, first match wins: 🔴 risk-tagged >30% · 🟢 clean ≥50% · 🟡 clean ≥30% · 🟡 when +zero-cost airdrop accounts for ≥80% of the non-clean remainder · 🔴 otherwise. So an +airdrop-distributed token reads 🟡 with its composition spelled out, not "healthy chips 0.0% 🔴". + +The composition is total-supply based, so it survives a degenerate float and its three percentages +still print — but the headline flag is neutralized to ⚪ (and the chips' share of supply appended) +whenever the rating is ⚪ Cannot Assess, since a 🔴/🟢 verdict over dust-level chips would +contradict the rating above it. + ## Supported Chains `sol`, `bsc`, `base`, `eth`, `robinhood`, `arc`, `stable` @@ -802,7 +157,19 @@ Entry timing pressure (批次浮盈/出货) does **NOT** affect the overall rati ## Notes - `balance >= 1` threshold avoids dust false positives when identifying dev holdings -- SOL `native_balance` is in lamports (÷1e9); EVM `native_balance` is in wei (÷1e18) +- SOL `native_balance` is in lamports (÷1e9); `bsc`/`eth`/`base` are in wei (÷1e18). Decimals for + `arc`/`stable`/`robinhood` are unconfirmed, so the buying-power section reports "not assessed" + on those chains rather than printing a converted figure that would be wrong. +- Holder buying power needs a live native-token price, fetched with `token info` on the wrapped + native address (`So111…1112` / WBNB / WETH / Base WETH). When that call fails, the section falls + back to native units and prints no USD figure. - `total_supply` is estimated as the median of `balance / amount_percentage` across normal wallets - `cur_price` is estimated as the median of `usd_value / balance` across normal wallets +- Entry MC = `total_supply * avg_cost`, shown alongside unrealized PnL for every Top5 wallet - Top5 displays Twitter name when available; else `first4...last4` format +- Risk-wallet subtotals are per-category and can exceed the deduped total; the script prints how + many wallets carry more than one risk tag when that happens. +- `creator_ath_info.ath_mc` can lag behind the token's current MC after a fast pump (upstream + `ath_price` has been seen equal to `price_24h`). The script cannot recompute it, so when the + reported ATH sits more than 5% below the current MC it prints a staleness warning next to the + figure instead of presenting it as the dev's peak. diff --git a/skills/gmgn-holder-analysis/analyze.py b/skills/gmgn-holder-analysis/analyze.py index cb176e6..254ebbf 100644 --- a/skills/gmgn-holder-analysis/analyze.py +++ b/skills/gmgn-holder-analysis/analyze.py @@ -21,9 +21,20 @@ if CHAIN == 'auto' or (TOKEN_ADDR.startswith('0x') and CHAIN not in KNOWN_CHAINS break else: CHAIN = 'eth' # fallback -WINDOW = 1800 +WINDOW = 300 # 同步注资滑窗(秒)—— 文档要求"极短时间",取 5 分钟 +TIGHT = 60 # 秒级同步注资,基本可判定为脚本批量打款 now_ts = int(time.time()) +# 原生代币的包装地址,用于查询实时价格来估算持仓者购买力。 +# 未列出的链(arc / stable / robinhood)拿不到价格,购买力改用原生单位展示。 +WNATIVE = { + 'sol': 'So11111111111111111111111111111111111111112', + 'bsc': '0xbb4CdB9CBd36B01bD1cBaEBF2De08d9173bc095c', + 'eth': '0xC02aaA39b223FE8D0A0e5C4F27eAD9083C756Cc2', + 'base': '0x4200000000000000000000000000000000000006', +} +NATIVE_SYM = {'sol': 'SOL', 'bsc': 'BNB', 'eth': 'ETH', 'base': 'ETH'} + ZH = (LANG == 'zh') def _(zh, en): return zh if ZH else en @@ -34,9 +45,12 @@ def run_cli(args, timeout=30): raise RuntimeError(r.stderr) return json.loads(r.stdout) -with ThreadPoolExecutor(max_workers=3) as ex: +with ThreadPoolExecutor(max_workers=4) as ex: f_holders = ex.submit(run_cli, ['token', 'holders', '--chain', CHAIN, '--address', TOKEN_ADDR, '--limit', '100']) f_devs = ex.submit(run_cli, ['token', 'holders', '--chain', CHAIN, '--address', TOKEN_ADDR, '--tag', 'dev', '--limit', '20']) + # 原生代币价格与 holders 无依赖,和上面两个请求并发,不额外增加耗时 + f_price = (ex.submit(run_cli, ['token', 'info', '--chain', CHAIN, '--address', WNATIVE[CHAIN]]) + if CHAIN in WNATIVE else None) # dev 结果一到,立即发起 created-tokens,不等 holders devs = f_devs.result()['list'] @@ -50,11 +64,26 @@ with ThreadPoolExecutor(max_workers=3) as ex: holders = f_holders.result()['list'] created_data = f_created.result() if f_created else None + # 价格取不到就降级为 None —— 宁可只显示原生数量,也不编造美元金额 + NATIVE_PRICE = None + if f_price: + try: + NATIVE_PRICE = float(((f_price.result() or {}).get('price') or {}).get('price') or 0) or None + except Exception: + NATIVE_PRICE = None + normal = [h for h in holders if h.get('addr_type', 0) == 0] burn = [h for h in holders if h.get('addr_type', 0) == 1] dex = [h for h in holders if h.get('addr_type', 0) == 2] def pct(v): return v * 100 +def pct_s(v): + """退化流通盘只有 0.0035% 这种量级,固定两位小数会打成 "0.00%",读起来就是真零 —— + 而"零"和"极小但非零"在这里是两个不同结论。低于 0.01% 时切成有效数字。""" + p = pct(v) + if p <= 0: return "0%" + if p < 0.01: return f"{p:.2g}%" + return f"{p:.2f}%" def usd(v): if v is None: return "$0" if abs(v) >= 1_000_000: return f"${v/1_000_000:.2f}M" @@ -72,6 +101,11 @@ def age_label(entry_ts): else: return f"{hours}h ago" if days == 0 else f"{days}d ago" def addr_short(addr): return f"{addr[:4]}...{addr[-4:]}" +def price_str(v): + # meme 币均价常在 1e-8 量级,固定 4 位小数会全部显示成 $0.0000 + if not v or v <= 0: return "$0" + if v >= 0.01: return f"${v:.4f}" + return "$" + f"{v:.12f}".rstrip('0') supply_list = [h['balance']/h['amount_percentage'] for h in normal if h.get('amount_percentage',0)>0 and h.get('balance',0)>0] @@ -83,8 +117,52 @@ cur_mc = total_supply * cur_price burn_pct = sum(h['amount_percentage'] for h in burn) dex_pct = sum(h['amount_percentage'] for h in dex) -top10 = sum(h['amount_percentage'] for h in holders[:10]) -top20 = sum(h['amount_percentage'] for h in holders[:20]) + +# ── 流通盘基准 ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── +# 下方所有"持仓占比"都除以 float_share,即以可流通盘为分母而非总供应。 +# 理由:报告要回答的是"能砸盘的筹码占多少",锁在 DEX 池和销毁地址里的份额 +# 砸不动,把它们算进分母会把真实抛压系统性稀释(LP 占 56% 时会低估 2.3 倍)。 +# burn_pct / dex_pct 本身保持总供应基准 —— 它们定义了流通盘,再用流通盘做分母会循环。 +float_raw = 1.0 - burn_pct - dex_pct +float_share = max(float_raw, 1e-9) + +# ── 流通盘退化保护 ────────────────────────────────────────────────────── +# DEX 池(或销毁地址)吃掉几乎全部供应时 float_share 趋零,于是每个 `/ float_share` +# 都把尘埃钱包放大成两位数甚至 100%:实测过一个未迁移的盘,LP 占 99.9%,一个只握着 +# 约 $2 代币的钱包被判成"最大单钱包持仓 100%,筹码极度集中",评级直接给到 🔴 不建议买。 +# 那个 100% 是除零噪声,不是集中度。这类币的正确结论是"此刻无法评估筹码结构"。 +# 阈值取 2%:低于这个比例,Top100 里任何一个尘埃钱包都能占到"流通盘"的两位数百分比。 +FLOAT_MIN = 0.02 +float_degenerate = float_raw < FLOAT_MIN + +# ── 空持仓表保护 ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────── +# 上游 token holders 会返回 {"list":[]}(币彻底凉了、或索引里已经没有这个盘)。 +# 此时每个占比都是 0,dangers/warns 一条都不触发,级联会一路落到"🟢 集中度正常, +# 没发现明显砸盘风险"和"✅ 正常参与"—— 对一份零数据的报告给出正面结论, +# 比不给结论危险得多。"没有数据"必须显式说出来。 +no_holders = len(normal) == 0 +unassessable = float_degenerate or no_holders + +# 无法评估时百分比一律不上色 —— "0.00% 🔴" 或 "0.0% 🟢" 读起来像结论,其实只是除零/空集 +def pf(f): return "⚪" if unassessable else f + +# 无法评估时干脆不打印这个占比数字。分母趋零时同一份报告里会同时出现 "hold 100.00%" +# 和 "hold 0.00%",两个都是除零产物而不是持仓事实。顶部横幅只解释了一次,读者扫到 +# "KOL 1 hold 0.00%" 仍然会读成"KOL 没拿货"。钱包个数不经过 float_share,照常打印。 +def fpct(v, dec=2): return _("无法评估", "n/a") if unassessable else f"{pct(v):.{dec}f}%" + +# ── 流通盘换算只走这两个函数 ───────────────────────────────────────────── +# 不要再手写 `/ float_share`。漏掉一次除法就退回总供应基准,数字看上去仍然合理、 +# 也不会报错 —— 正是本次迁移要修掉的那类 bug。集中成两个函数后,漏除法就是漏调用, +# 一眼能看出来。 +# fs 故意用下标 h['amount_percentage'] 取字段:字段缺失时直接 KeyError 而不是静默算 0。 +def fs(ws): return sum(h['amount_percentage'] for h in ws) / float_share # 一组钱包的合计占比 +def f1(v): return v / float_share # 单个已取出的占比值 + +# 集中度只数钱包地址(addr_type==0),排除 DEX 池和销毁地址。 +# holders 按 amount_percentage 降序返回,normal 保持该顺序。 +top10 = fs(normal[:10]) +top20 = fs(normal[:20]) airdrop = [h for h in normal if h.get('buy_tx_count_cur', 0)==0 and h.get('balance', 0)>0] bundlers = [h for h in normal if 'bundler' in (h.get('maker_token_tags') or [])] @@ -92,53 +170,156 @@ rats = [h for h in normal if 'rat_trader' in (h.get('maker_token_tags') or snipers = [h for h in normal if 'sniper' in (h.get('maker_token_tags') or [])] fresh = [h for h in normal if 'fresh_wallet' in (h.get('tags') or [])] wash = [h for h in normal if 'wash_trader' in (h.get('tags') or [])] -risk_all = set(h['address'] for g in [bundlers, rats, snipers, fresh, wash] for h in g) -risk_pct = sum(h['amount_percentage'] for h in normal if h['address'] in risk_all) -airdrop_pct = sum(h['amount_percentage'] for h in airdrop) -rats_pct = sum(h['amount_percentage'] for h in rats) +# ── 风险标签的唯一定义处 ──────────────────────────────────────────────── +# 去重合计(risk_all)、重叠计数(risk_tag_hits)、§1 的分类明细渲染,三处都从这里派生。 +# 之前这五类各自写成三份字面量列表:加第六类标签要改三个地方,漏掉 risk_all 会让 +# "合计"少算而明细照常打印,输出自相矛盾且不报错。列表顺序即输出顺序。 +RISK_GROUPS = [ + (_("老鼠仓", "Rat Trader"), rats, "🚨"), + (_("捆绑交易", "Bundler"), bundlers, "⚠️"), + (_("狙击者", "Sniper"), snipers, "⚠️"), + (_("新钱包", "Fresh"), fresh, ""), + (_("刷量", "Wash"), wash, ""), +] +risk_all = set(h['address'] for _lb, g, _fl in RISK_GROUPS for h in g) +risk_pct = fs(h for h in normal if h['address'] in risk_all) +# 分类明细各自求和会重复计算带多标签的钱包,总数是去重的 —— 输出时要说明差额来源 +risk_tag_hits = sum(len(g) for _lb, g, _fl in RISK_GROUPS) +risk_overlap = risk_tag_hits - len(risk_all) +# 这两个只在 §1 小结的级联里用到,但属于计算而非渲染,放在同类指标旁边 +bundler_pct_val = fs(bundlers) +sniper_pct_val = fs(snipers) -normal_pct = sum(h['amount_percentage'] for h in normal) -all_bad = set(h['address'] for h in airdrop) | risk_all -bad_pct = sum(h['amount_percentage'] for h in normal if h['address'] in all_bad) -healthy_pct = max(normal_pct - bad_pct, 0) -healthy_ratio = (healthy_pct / normal_pct) if normal_pct > 0 else 0 +airdrop_pct = fs(airdrop) +rats_pct = fs(rats) + +# ── 筹码质量分解 ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────── +# 三个桶都保持总供应基准,分母是观测到的钱包筹码(normal_pct):这是"看得见的筹码里 +# 有多少是干净的"这一质量比值,分母就该是观测到的钱包总量。Top100 之外的长尾干净与否 +# 无从得知,换成流通盘做分母会让分散型代币凭空显示成健康度下降。 +# +# 旧版把"空降"和"风险标签"并成一个 all_bad 再取补集,压成单个 healthy_ratio。后果是 +# 任何空投分发的币都塌成"健康筹码 0.0% 🔴"—— 和同一段里"钻石手持仓 80% ✅、Top10 12%" +# 直接打架,而且抹掉了结构:读者看不出这 0% 是因为有老鼠仓,还是仅仅因为筹码是转账来的。 +# 拆开的依据是两者性质不同:风险标签是"这个地址有前科"(已证实的坏),零成本空降是 +# "不知道这批筹码怎么来的"(来源未知)。未知不该和已证实的坏共用一个 🔴。 +risk_chip_pct = sum(h['amount_percentage'] for h in normal if h['address'] in risk_all) +airdrop_only = [h for h in airdrop if h['address'] not in risk_all] # 与风险标签去重,避免重复计 +airdrop_only_pct = sum(h['amount_percentage'] for h in airdrop_only) +normal_pct = sum(h['amount_percentage'] for h in normal) +clean_pct = max(normal_pct - risk_chip_pct - airdrop_only_pct, 0) +clean_ratio = (clean_pct / normal_pct) if normal_pct > 0 else 0 +risk_ratio = (risk_chip_pct / normal_pct) if normal_pct > 0 else 0 +airdrop_ratio = (airdrop_only_pct / normal_pct) if normal_pct > 0 else 0 +# 🔴 只留给"有前科的地址占了大头"这种确定的坏。缺口主要来自零成本空降时给 🟡: +# 那是来源不透明的风险提示,不是"筹码已证实劣质"的结论。 +if risk_ratio > 0.30: qf = "🔴" +elif clean_ratio >= 0.50: qf = "🟢" +elif clean_ratio >= 0.30: qf = "🟡" +elif airdrop_ratio >= (1 - clean_ratio) * 0.8: qf = "🟡" # 缺口几乎全是空降 +else: qf = "🔴" +# Top100 覆盖了多少流通盘 —— 未覆盖的部分意味着所有流通盘占比都是下限 +coverage = min(f1(normal_pct), 1.0) + +# ── 关联资金 ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── +# 文档要的是"团伙作案"。只看"共用同一个转入地址"会把交易所热钱包判成团伙 —— +# 一个 CEX 热钱包给 30 个互不相关的散户打款,特征和 30 个小号一模一样。 +# 硬编码 CEX 地址名单在 skill 里无法维护,改用 payload 里已有的一致性信号: +# 同一批小号通常在很短时间内、以几乎相同的金额被打款。 +nonwallet_addrs = set(h['address'] for h in burn) | set(h['address'] for h in dex) + +def _tr(h, k, d=0): return (h.get('native_transfer') or {}).get(k, d) + +def coherent(ws): + """时间集中 或 金额高度一致 —— 任一成立即判为强关联""" + ts = [t for t in (_tr(w, 'timestamp', 0) for w in ws) if t] + am = [float(_tr(w, 'amount', 0) or 0) for w in ws] + tight = bool(ts) and (max(ts) - min(ts)) <= 6 * 3600 + mean = (sum(am) / len(am)) if am else 0 + uniform = mean > 0 and (max(am) - min(am)) / mean <= 0.15 + return tight or uniform from_map = defaultdict(list) for h in normal: - fa = (h.get('native_transfer') or {}).get('from_address', '') - if fa: from_map[fa].append(h) -same_src_groups = sorted([(fa, ws) for fa, ws in from_map.items() if len(ws)>=2], key=lambda x: -len(x[1])) -same_src_wallets = sum(len(ws) for __,ws in same_src_groups) -same_src_pct = sum(h['amount_percentage'] for __,ws in same_src_groups for h in ws) + fa = _tr(h, 'from_address', '') + if fa and fa not in nonwallet_addrs: + from_map[fa].append(h) +# ≥3 个钱包才成组:2 个钱包共用转入地址的证据太弱,噪声远大于信号 +_cand = [(fa, ws) for fa, ws in from_map.items() if len(ws) >= 3] +same_src_groups = sorted([(fa, ws) for fa, ws in _cand if coherent(ws)], key=lambda x: -len(x[1])) +weak_src_groups = sorted([(fa, ws) for fa, ws in _cand if not coherent(ws)], key=lambda x: -len(x[1])) +# 丢弃项命名为 _src(来源地址)而不是 __ —— 单下划线 `_` 是本文件的 i18n 函数, +# `__` 看起来像与它相关的东西,容易误读 +same_src_wallets = sum(len(ws) for _src, ws in same_src_groups) +weak_src_wallets = sum(len(ws) for _src, ws in weak_src_groups) +same_src_pct = fs(h for _src, ws in same_src_groups for h in ws) +weak_src_pct = fs(h for _src, ws in weak_src_groups for h in ws) -funded = [((h.get('native_transfer') or {}).get('timestamp',0), h) - for h in normal if (h.get('native_transfer') or {}).get('timestamp',0)] -bucket = defaultdict(list) +# 同步注资改用滑动窗口。原先的固定分桶 (ts//WINDOW)*WINDOW 漏掉跨桶边界的相邻注资: +# 两笔相隔 60 秒但落在不同桶里就检测不到。 +# key 必须显式取 p[0]:默认的元组比较在 timestamp 相同时会继续比较第二项, +# 也就是拿两个 dict 相比 → TypeError,整个脚本崩掉、一行输出都没有。 +# 而"同一秒被批量注资"正是本段要找的信号,时间戳撞车是常态而非边缘情况。 +funded = sorted(((_tr(h, 'timestamp', 0), h) for h in normal if _tr(h, 'timestamp', 0)), + key=lambda p: p[0]) +win_groups = [] +_cur = [] for ts, h in funded: - bucket[(ts//WINDOW)*WINDOW].append(h) -win_groups = sorted([(k,v) for k,v in bucket.items() if len(v)>=2], key=lambda x: -len(x[1])) -win_pct = sum(h['amount_percentage'] for __,v in win_groups for h in v) + if _cur and ts - _cur[-1][0] > WINDOW: + if len(_cur) >= 2: win_groups.append([x[1] for x in _cur]) + _cur = [] + _cur.append((ts, h)) +if len(_cur) >= 2: win_groups.append([x[1] for x in _cur]) +win_groups.sort(key=lambda v: -len(v)) +win_pct = fs(h for v in win_groups for h in v) + +def _span(v): + ts = [t for t in (_tr(h, 'timestamp', 0) for h in v) if t] + return (max(ts) - min(ts)) if ts else 0 +tight_groups = [v for v in win_groups if _span(v) <= TIGHT] +tight_wallets = sum(len(v) for v in tight_groups) related = set() -for __,ws in same_src_groups: +for _src, ws in same_src_groups: for h in ws: related.add(h['address']) -for __,v in win_groups: +for v in win_groups: for h in v: related.add(h['address']) -related_pct = sum(h['amount_percentage'] for h in normal if h['address'] in related) +related_pct = fs(h for h in normal if h['address'] in related) related_usd = sum(h.get('usd_value',0) for h in normal if h['address'] in related) smart = [h for h in normal if any(t in (h.get('tags') or []) for t in ['smart_degen','pump_smart'])] kol = [h for h in normal if 'kol' in (h.get('tags') or []) or 'renowned' in (h.get('tags') or [])] whales = [h for h in normal if 'whale' in (h.get('maker_token_tags') or [])] -diamond = [h for h in normal if h.get('sell_tx_count_cur',0)==0 and h.get('balance',0)>0] partial = [h for h in normal if 0<(h.get('sell_amount_percentage') or 0)<0.5] heavy_sell = [h for h in normal if (h.get('sell_amount_percentage') or 0)>=0.5] -smart_pct = sum(h['amount_percentage'] for h in smart) -kol_pct = sum(h['amount_percentage'] for h in kol) -whale_pct = sum(h['amount_percentage'] for h in whales) -diamond_pct = sum(h['amount_percentage'] for h in diamond) +# ── 钻石手必须自己买过 ────────────────────────────────────────────────── +# 旧定义只要 sell_tx==0 且 balance>0,于是零成本空降钱包全被算进钻石手:空投分发的币 +# 会同时打印"空降筹码 79% 🔴"和"钻石手持仓 80% ✅ 筹码稳定",同一批钱包被数了两次、 +# 结论还相反。"钻石手"的含义是扛住了浮亏没卖 —— 没花钱买入的地址无所谓扛, +# 它不卖可能只是私钥在分发方手里。所以要求 buy_tx>0。 +# 空降且未动的那批不丢弃,单独列成 idle_airdrop:它们仍是随时可能出货的零成本筹码。 +diamond = [h for h in normal if (h.get('buy_tx_count_cur') or 0)>0 + and (h.get('sell_tx_count_cur') or 0)==0 + and (h.get('balance') or 0)>0] +idle_airdrop = [h for h in normal if (h.get('buy_tx_count_cur') or 0)==0 + and (h.get('sell_tx_count_cur') or 0)==0 + and (h.get('balance') or 0)>0] + +smart_pct = fs(smart) +kol_pct = fs(kol) +whale_pct = fs(whales) +diamond_pct = fs(diamond) +idle_airdrop_pct = fs(idle_airdrop) + +# §4 小结的判据。原先夹在 §4 的两条 print 之间 —— 本文件的约定是"计算全在渲染之前", +# 放回这里让那条边界重新成立 +sig_count = len(smart) + len(kol) + len(whales) +kol_selling = [h for h in kol if (h.get('sell_tx_count_cur') or 0) > 0] +kol_holding = [h for h in kol if (h.get('sell_tx_count_cur') or 0) == 0 and (h.get('balance') or 0) >= 1] +smart_selling = [h for h in smart if (h.get('sell_tx_count_cur') or 0) > 0] +smart_holding = [h for h in smart if (h.get('sell_tx_count_cur') or 0) == 0 and (h.get('balance') or 0) >= 1] top100_map = {h['address']: h for h in holders} creator = next((d for d in devs if 'creator' in (d.get('maker_token_tags') or [])), None) @@ -154,21 +335,47 @@ avg_hold_days = (sum(durations)/len(durations)/86400) if durations else 0 profit_w = [h for h in normal if (h.get('profit') or 0)>0] loss_w = [h for h in normal if (h.get('profit') or 0)<0] -trapped = [h for h in normal if (h.get('unrealized_pnl') or 0)<-0.2 and h.get('balance',0)>0] +# 文档问"持有者大部分盈利还是亏损",钱包个数是字面答案;但抛压看的是筹码权重 —— +# 3 个握着 40% 流通盘的盈利钱包,威胁远大于 60 个尘埃钱包。两者都给出。 +profit_pct = fs(profit_w) +loss_pct = fs(loss_w) +trapped = [h for h in normal if (h.get('unrealized_pnl') or 0)<-0.2 and h.get('balance',0)>0] +trapped_pct = fs(trapped) -NATIVE_PRICE = 160 if CHAIN == 'sol' else (700 if CHAIN == 'bsc' else 2500) -NATIVE_DENOM = 1e9 if CHAIN == 'sol' else 1e18 -def native_usd(h): return int(h.get('native_balance') or 0)/NATIVE_DENOM*NATIVE_PRICE -zero_wallets = [h for h in normal if native_usd(h)==0] -low_wallets = [h for h in normal if 0 < native_usd(h) <= 200] -mid_wallets = [h for h in normal if 200 < native_usd(h) <= 1200] -high_wallets = [h for h in normal if native_usd(h) > 1200] -zero_pct_val = sum(h['amount_percentage'] for h in zero_wallets) -low_pct_val = sum(h['amount_percentage'] for h in low_wallets) -mid_pct_val = sum(h['amount_percentage'] for h in mid_wallets) -high_pct_val = sum(h['amount_percentage'] for h in high_wallets) +# 只列已确认精度的链。arc / stable / robinhood 的原生精度未确认,套 1e18 会把余额 +# 算成 0.000,读起来像"这些钱包没有 gas"—— 错的数字比没有数字更危险。 +NATIVE_DENOM = {'sol': 1e9, 'bsc': 1e18, 'eth': 1e18, 'base': 1e18}.get(CHAIN) +NSYM = NATIVE_SYM.get(CHAIN, 'NATIVE') +HAS_NATIVE = NATIVE_DENOM is not None +HAS_PRICE = HAS_NATIVE and NATIVE_PRICE is not None +def native_amt(h): + if not HAS_NATIVE: return 0.0 + try: return float(h.get('native_balance') or 0) / NATIVE_DENOM + except (TypeError, ValueError): return 0.0 +def native_usd(h): return native_amt(h) * NATIVE_PRICE if HAS_PRICE else 0.0 +def fmt_native(v): return f"{v:.3f} {NSYM}" + +if not HAS_NATIVE: + # 精度未知,native_balance 无法换算 —— 一个钱包都不归档,整节改为"无法评估" + zero_wallets, low_wallets, mid_wallets, high_wallets = [], [], [], [] +elif HAS_PRICE: + zero_wallets = [h for h in normal if native_amt(h) <= 0] + low_wallets = [h for h in normal if 0 < native_usd(h) <= 200] + mid_wallets = [h for h in normal if 200 < native_usd(h) <= 1200] + high_wallets = [h for h in normal if native_usd(h) > 1200] +else: + # 拿不到原生代币价格就不虚构美元档位,只分"零余额 / 有余额" + zero_wallets = [h for h in normal if native_amt(h) <= 0] + low_wallets, mid_wallets = [], [] + high_wallets = [h for h in normal if native_amt(h) > 0] +zero_pct_val = fs(zero_wallets) +low_pct_val = fs(low_wallets) +mid_pct_val = fs(mid_wallets) +high_pct_val = fs(high_wallets) high_total = sum(native_usd(h) for h in high_wallets) -total_buying_power = sum(native_usd(h) for h in normal) +high_native = sum(native_amt(h) for h in high_wallets) +total_buying_power = sum(native_usd(h) for h in normal) +total_buying_power_native = sum(native_amt(h) for h in normal) ROLE_MAP = { 'rat_trader': _('老鼠仓', 'Rat Trader'), @@ -199,6 +406,14 @@ def holding_status(h): if sp > 0: return _("少量出货", "Light Selling") return _("持仓未动", "Holding") +# §5 要数"这批钱包里有几个在出货"。原先的写法是把 holding_status(h) 的返回值 +# 和两条本地化文案做字符串比对 —— 那是给人看的显示文本:改一个 emoji 或改一个词, +# 这里就会静默返回空列表,sell_ratio 变 0,每个批次都被降级成 🟢,而且不报任何错。 +# 改成直接复用 holding_status 的同一组阈值:余额>0 且已卖出量≥30%, +# 等价于原来的 {🔴 大量出货, 🟡 出货中} 两个分支。 +def is_distributing(h): + return (h.get('balance', 0) or 0) > 0 and (h.get('sell_amount_percentage', 0) or 0) >= 0.3 + def wallet_behavior(h): buy_tx = h.get('buy_tx_count_cur', 0) or 0 sell_tx = h.get('sell_tx_count_cur', 0) or 0 @@ -208,29 +423,45 @@ def wallet_behavior(h): return "" def trend_str(wlist): - buying = [h for h in wlist if (h.get('buy_tx_count_cur') or 0)>0 and (h.get('sell_tx_count_cur') or 0)==0] - selling = [h for h in wlist if (h.get('sell_tx_count_cur') or 0)>0 and (h.get('buy_tx_count_cur') or 0)==0] - both = [h for h in wlist if (h.get('buy_tx_count_cur') or 0)>0 and (h.get('sell_tx_count_cur') or 0)>0] - holding = [h for h in wlist if (h.get('buy_tx_count_cur') or 0)==0 and (h.get('sell_tx_count_cur') or 0)==0] + """文档问的是"持续加仓中还是出货中"。按累计买卖笔数分桶会把绝大多数活跃钱包 + 归进"买卖都有",两个分支都答不上。改用 sell_amount_percentage(已卖出量占已买入量 + 的比例)判净方向 —— 和 holding_status 用的是同一个字段。""" + cleared, dumping, trimming, adding, holding, idle = [], [], [], [], [], [] + for h in wlist: + sp = h.get('sell_amount_percentage') or 0 + buy = h.get('buy_tx_count_cur') or 0 + sell = h.get('sell_tx_count_cur') or 0 + if buy == 0 and sell == 0: idle.append(h) # 转账获得,链上无交易 + elif sp >= 0.8: cleared.append(h) + elif sp >= 0.3: dumping.append(h) + elif sp > 0: trimming.append(h) + elif buy >= 2: adding.append(h) # 多次买入且未卖出 + else: holding.append(h) parts = [] - if buying: parts.append(f"📈 {_('买入中', 'Buying')} {len(buying)}") - if selling: parts.append(f"📉 {_('卖出中', 'Selling')} {len(selling)}") - if both: parts.append(f"🔄 {_('买卖都有', 'Both')} {len(both)}") - if holding: parts.append(f"🤝 {_('未动', 'Holding')} {len(holding)}") + if adding: parts.append(f"📈 {_('加仓中', 'Accumulating')} {len(adding)}") + if holding: parts.append(f"🤝 {_('持仓未动', 'Holding')} {len(holding)}") + if trimming: parts.append(f"🟡 {_('少量减持', 'Trimming')} {len(trimming)}") + if dumping: parts.append(f"📉 {_('出货中', 'Distributing')} {len(dumping)}") + if cleared: parts.append(f"🔴 {_('清仓中', 'Exiting')} {len(cleared)}") + if idle: parts.append(f"⚪ {_('无交易', 'Idle')} {len(idle)}") return " ".join(parts) if parts else "—" -def is_active(h): return (h.get('buy_tx_count_cur') or 0)+(h.get('sell_tx_count_cur') or 0)>0 def is_selling(h): return (h.get('sell_tx_count_cur') or 0)>0 and (h.get('balance') or 0)>=1 def is_buying_only(h): return (h.get('buy_tx_count_cur') or 0)>0 and (h.get('sell_tx_count_cur') or 0)==0 -biggest = max(normal, key=lambda h: h['amount_percentage']) if normal else None +biggest = max(normal, key=lambda h: h['amount_percentage']) if normal else None +biggest_pct = f1(biggest['amount_percentage']) if biggest else 0 +# 以下所有阈值都已按流通盘基准重新校准(旧值是总供应基准,直接沿用会让每条都亮红) +# 流通盘退化时这些阈值判的全是除零噪声(详见 float_degenerate),一条都不能计入评级 —— +# 不依赖百分比的判据(Dev 马甲)不受影响,照常检查。 dangers = [] -if rats and rats_pct > 0.1: - dangers.append(_( f"老鼠仓持仓 {pct(rats_pct):.1f}%,出货即砸盘", - f"Rat traders hold {pct(rats_pct):.1f}% — instant dump risk")) -if biggest and biggest['amount_percentage'] > 0.15: - dangers.append(_( f"最大单钱包持仓 {pct(biggest['amount_percentage']):.1f}%,筹码极度集中", - f"Largest wallet holds {pct(biggest['amount_percentage']):.1f}% — extreme concentration")) +if not float_degenerate: + if rats and rats_pct > 0.05: + dangers.append(_( f"老鼠仓持仓 {pct(rats_pct):.1f}%,出货即砸盘", + f"Rat traders hold {pct(rats_pct):.1f}% — instant dump risk")) + if biggest_pct > 0.10: + dangers.append(_( f"最大单钱包持仓 {pct(biggest_pct):.1f}%,筹码极度集中", + f"Largest wallet holds {pct(biggest_pct):.1f}% — extreme concentration")) if creator: to_out = creator.get('token_transfer_out') or {} if (to_out.get('address') or '') in top100_map: @@ -238,22 +469,36 @@ if creator: "Dev transferred chips to internal wallet — covert control")) warns = [] -if dev_holding: - hold_pct_val = sum(d.get('amount_percentage',0) for d in dev_holding) - if hold_pct_val > 0.01: - warns.append(_( f"Dev 仍持仓 {pct(hold_pct_val):.2f}%", - f"Dev still holds {pct(hold_pct_val):.2f}%")) -if airdrop_pct > 0.15: - warns.append(_( f"空降筹码 {pct(airdrop_pct):.1f}%,来源不透明", - f"Airdrop supply {pct(airdrop_pct):.1f}% — opaque origin")) -if risk_pct > 0.3: - warns.append(_( f"风险钱包持仓 {pct(risk_pct):.1f}%,筹码质量差", - f"Risk wallets hold {pct(risk_pct):.1f}% — low chip quality")) -if related_pct > 0.1: - warns.append(_( f"关联钱包 {len(related)} 个持仓 {pct(related_pct):.1f}%", - f"Linked wallets ({len(related)}) hold {pct(related_pct):.1f}%")) +if no_holders: + warns.append(_( "上游未返回任何持仓地址,筹码结构无法评估(本报告所有占比均为空集,不是 0%)", + "Upstream returned no holder addresses — chip structure not assessable (every percentage here is an empty set, not a real 0%)")) +elif float_degenerate: + # 唯一还成立的结论就是"这盘子还没放开,没法评"。给出的是绝对值而不是百分比。 + warns.append(_( f"流通盘仅占总供应 {pct_s(float_raw)}(DEX {pct(dex_pct):.1f}% + 销毁 {pct(burn_pct):.1f}%),筹码结构无法评估", + f"Float is only {pct_s(float_raw)} of supply (DEX {pct(dex_pct):.1f}% + burn {pct(burn_pct):.1f}%) — chip structure not assessable")) +else: + if dev_holding: + # dev 来自另一个 endpoint,字段可能缺失,所以先用 .get 求和再交给 f1 换算, + # 不走 fs(fs 用下标取字段) + hold_pct_val = f1(sum(d.get('amount_percentage',0) for d in dev_holding)) + if hold_pct_val > 0.01: + warns.append(_( f"Dev 仍持仓 {pct(hold_pct_val):.2f}%", + f"Dev still holds {pct(hold_pct_val):.2f}%")) + if airdrop_pct > 0.2: + warns.append(_( f"空降筹码 {pct(airdrop_pct):.1f}%,来源不透明", + f"Airdrop supply {pct(airdrop_pct):.1f}% — opaque origin")) + if risk_pct > 0.35: + warns.append(_( f"风险钱包持仓 {pct(risk_pct):.1f}%,筹码质量差", + f"Risk wallets hold {pct(risk_pct):.1f}% — low chip quality")) + if related_pct > 0.15: + warns.append(_( f"关联钱包 {len(related)} 个持仓 {pct(related_pct):.1f}%", + f"Linked wallets ({len(related)}) hold {pct(related_pct):.1f}%")) -if dangers: +if unassessable and not dangers: + # Dev 马甲那条(唯一不依赖百分比的 danger)若成立就照常给 🔴;否则不下结论。 + # 退化 / 空数据时"没发现问题"和"评级正常"是两件事,不能让它落到 ✅ 正常参与。 + rating_em, rating_text = "⚪", _("无法评估", "Cannot Assess") +elif dangers: rating_em, rating_text = "🔴", _("不建议买", "Not Recommended") elif len(warns) >= 2: rating_em, rating_text = "⚠️", _("谨慎参与", "Caution") @@ -272,9 +517,10 @@ if whales: goods.append(_( f"鲸鱼 {len(buying_w)} 个持续买入,尚未出货", f"{len(buying_w)} whale(s) still accumulating, not sold")) if kol: - goods.append(_( f"KOL {len(kol)} 个在场({pct(kol_pct):.2f}%)", - f"{len(kol)} KOL(s) holding ({pct(kol_pct):.2f}%)")) -if diamond_pct > 0.4: + # 钱包个数是实打实的;退化时占比是噪声,就只报个数 + goods.append(_( f"KOL {len(kol)} 个在场" + ("" if float_degenerate else f"({pct(kol_pct):.2f}%)"), + f"{len(kol)} KOL(s) holding" + ("" if float_degenerate else f" ({pct(kol_pct):.2f}%)"))) +if diamond_pct > 0.5 and not float_degenerate: goods.append(_( f"钻石手持仓 {pct(diamond_pct):.1f}%,筹码稳定", f"Diamond hands hold {pct(diamond_pct):.1f}% — stable chips")) @@ -283,7 +529,7 @@ if rats: exit_signals.append(_("老鼠仓钱包出现卖出操作", "Rat trader wallets start selling")) if dev_holding: exit_signals.append(_("Dev 钱包开始出货", "Dev wallets start dumping")) -if airdrop_pct>0.15: +if airdrop_pct>0.2: exit_signals.append(_("空降大户出现集中卖出", "Airdrop whales start concentrated selling")) if not exit_signals: exit_signals = [_("Top5 大户出现集中出货", "Top 5 holders start concentrated selling"), @@ -301,6 +547,12 @@ def top5_pressure(h): if buy0 and not roles: roles.append(_('空降', 'Airdrop')) role_str = "["+"·".join(roles)+"] " if roles else "" display_id = (h.get('twitter_name') or '') or addr_short(h['address']) + # 建仓MC = 总供应 × 建仓均价。文档把它和浮盈并列为抛压信号,所以四个有成本的分支 + # 都要给 —— 只报"均价 $0.0000"读不出这是多大的盘子进的。 + entry_mc = total_supply * avg_cost + cost_str = (f"{_('建仓MC', 'Entry MC')} {usd(entry_mc)}" + f"({_('均价', 'avg')} {price_str(avg_cost)})" if ZH else + f"Entry MC {usd(entry_mc)} (avg {price_str(avg_cost)})") if buy0 or avg_cost==0: cost_str = _("零成本(转账获得)", "Zero cost (received via transfer)") pnl_str = "—" @@ -308,23 +560,19 @@ def top5_pressure(h): note = _("零成本,随时可出货", "Zero cost — can dump anytime") elif up_pnl>1.0: mult = up_pnl+1 - cost_str = f"{_('均价', 'avg')} ${avg_cost:.4f}" pnl_str = f"+{up_pnl*100:.0f}% ({mult:.1f}x) {usd(up_usd)}" lv = "⚠️ " + _("高", "High") - note = _(f"建仓MC {usd(total_supply*avg_cost)} → 现 {usd(cur_mc)},浮盈 {mult:.1f}x 压力强", - f"Entry MC {usd(total_supply*avg_cost)} → now {usd(cur_mc)}, {mult:.1f}x gain — strong pressure") + note = _(f"现 MC {usd(cur_mc)},浮盈 {mult:.1f}x,获利了结压力强", + f"Now MC {usd(cur_mc)}, {mult:.1f}x gain — strong take-profit pressure") elif up_pnl>0.1: - cost_str = f"{_('均价', 'avg')} ${avg_cost:.4f}" pnl_str = f"+{up_pnl*100:.0f}% {usd(up_usd)}" lv = "🟡 " + _("中", "Med") note = _("小幅浮盈,出货意愿一般", "Moderate gain — mild sell pressure") elif up_pnl>=-0.1: - cost_str = f"{_('均价', 'avg')} ${avg_cost:.4f}" pnl_str = f"{up_pnl*100:+.0f}% {usd(up_usd)}" if abs(up_usd)>=1 else _("接近成本", "Near cost") lv = "🟢 " + _("低", "Low") note = _("接近成本,短期抛压有限", "Near break-even — limited short-term pressure") else: - cost_str = f"{_('均价', 'avg')} ${avg_cost:.4f}" pnl_str = f"{up_pnl*100:.0f}% {usd(up_usd)}" lv = "🟢 " + _("低", "Low") note = _("套牢中,短期不易割肉", "Underwater — unlikely to sell soon") @@ -340,55 +588,89 @@ print(f"│{(' MC '+usd(cur_mc)):^56}│") print(f"└{'─'*56}┘") print() +if no_holders: + # 空数据也必须在所有 0.00% 之前说清楚,否则整份报告读起来像"干净得没有任何风险" + print(f" ⚠️ {_('上游未返回任何持仓地址 —— 筹码结构无法评估', 'Upstream returned no holder addresses — chip structure not assessable')}") + print(_( " 下方所有占比与计数都是空集的渲染结果,不是“该项为 0”;评级已置为“无法评估”。", + " Every percentage and count below renders an empty set, not a measured zero. Rating is set to “Cannot Assess”.")) + print(_( " 常见原因:代币已无活跃持仓、或上游索引里已不再收录该盘。可稍后重试确认。", + " Usual causes: the token has no active holders left, or upstream no longer indexes it. Retry later to confirm.")) + print() + +if float_degenerate: + # 退化时这行必须在所有百分比之前出现,否则读者会先把 100% 当成集中度结论。 + # 同时给出绝对值(代币数 + 美元),这是此刻唯一有意义的量级。 + _fl_tok = total_supply * max(float_raw, 0) + _fl_usd = _fl_tok * cur_price + _fl_usd_s = "<$1" if 0 < _fl_usd < 1 else usd(_fl_usd) + print(f" ⚠️ {_('流通盘退化 —— 筹码结构此刻无法评估', 'Degenerate float — chip structure not assessable right now')}") + print(_( f" DEX 池 {pct(dex_pct):.1f}% + 销毁 {pct(burn_pct):.1f}% 占掉几乎全部供应,可流通部分只剩 {pct_s(float_raw)}", + f" DEX {pct(dex_pct):.1f}% + burn {pct(burn_pct):.1f}% hold nearly all supply; only {pct_s(float_raw)} is tradeable")) + print(_( f" (通常是还没迁移的 launchpad 盘)实际可流通约 {fmt_amt(_fl_tok)} 个代币 ≈ {_fl_usd_s}", + f" (typically a launchpad token pre-migration) tradeable ≈ {fmt_amt(_fl_tok)} tokens ≈ {_fl_usd_s}")) + print(_( " 下方“占流通盘”的百分比分母趋零,会把尘埃钱包放大成两位数甚至 100%,", + " Float percentages below divide by a near-zero denominator, inflating dust wallets to double digits or 100%,")) + print(_( " 不能当作集中度结论;评级已置为“无法评估”,颜色标记一律显示 ⚪。", + " so they are not concentration findings. Rating is set to “Cannot Assess” and flags show ⚪.")) + print() + sec1 = _("🚨 砸盘风险", "🚨 Dump Risk") print(f"━━ {sec1} {'━'*(54-len(sec1))}") print() -c10f = "🔴" if top10>0.5 else ("🟡" if top10>0.3 else "🟢") -c20f = "🔴" if top20>0.6 else ("🟡" if top20>0.4 else "🟢") -print(f" {_('集中度', 'Concentration')} Top10 {pct(top10):.1f}% {c10f} Top20 {pct(top20):.1f}% {c20f}") +c10f = pf("🔴" if top10>0.6 else ("🟡" if top10>0.4 else "🟢")) +c20f = pf("🔴" if top20>0.75 else ("🟡" if top20>0.55 else "🟢")) +print(f" {_('集中度(占流通盘,已剔除 LP 与销毁)', 'Concentration (of tradeable float, LP + burn excluded)')}") +print(f" Top10 {fpct(top10, 1)} {c10f} Top20 {fpct(top20, 1)} {c20f}") print() if burn: print(f" 🔥 {_('销毁地址', 'Burn addr')} {pct(burn_pct):.2f}% ✅ {_('永久锁仓,无法流通', 'Permanently locked, non-circulating')}") print() -airf = "🔴" if airdrop_pct>0.2 else ("🟡" if airdrop_pct>0.1 else "🟢") -print(f" {_('空降筹码(从未买入、靠转账获得)', 'Airdrop (never bought, received via transfer)')} {len(airdrop)} {_('个钱包', 'wallets')} {_('持仓', 'hold')} {pct(airdrop_pct):.2f}% {airf}") +airf = pf("🔴" if airdrop_pct>0.25 else ("🟡" if airdrop_pct>0.1 else "🟢")) +print(f" {_('空降筹码(从未买入、靠转账获得)', 'Airdrop (never bought, received via transfer)')} {len(airdrop)} {_('个钱包', 'wallets')} {_('持仓', 'hold')} {fpct(airdrop_pct)} {airf}") print() -riskf = "🔴" if risk_pct>0.3 else ("🟡" if risk_pct>0.1 else "🟢") -print(f" {_('风险钱包', 'Risk wallets')} {_('合计', 'total')} {len(risk_all)} {_('个', '')} {_('持仓', 'hold')} {pct(risk_pct):.2f}% {riskf}") -risk_labels = [ - (_("老鼠仓", "Rat Trader"), rats, "🚨"), - (_("捆绑交易", "Bundler"), bundlers, "⚠️"), - (_("狙击者", "Sniper"), snipers, "⚠️"), - (_("新钱包", "Fresh"), fresh, ""), - (_("刷量", "Wash"), wash, ""), -] -for label, group, flag in risk_labels: +riskf = pf("🔴" if risk_pct>0.35 else ("🟡" if risk_pct>0.15 else "🟢")) +print(f" {_('风险钱包', 'Risk wallets')} {_('合计', 'total')} {len(risk_all)} {_('个', '')} {_('持仓', 'hold')} {fpct(risk_pct)} {riskf}") +for label, group, flag in RISK_GROUPS: if group: - gp = pct(sum(h['amount_percentage'] for h in group)) - print(f" · {label:10s} {len(group):2d} {_('个', '')} {_('持仓', 'hold')} {gp:.2f}% {flag}") -if not any([rats,bundlers,snipers,fresh,wash]): - print(f" · {_('未发现风险标签钱包', 'No risk-tagged wallets found')} 🟢") + gp = fpct(fs(group)) + print(f" · {label:10s} {len(group):2d} {_('个', '')} {_('持仓', 'hold')} {gp} {flag}") +if not any(g for _lb, g, _fl in RISK_GROUPS): + # 空持仓表时"未发现"只是没数据可查,不能打成 🟢 + if no_holders: + print(f" · {_('没有钱包可供检查', 'No wallets available to check')} ⚪") + else: + print(f" · {_('未发现风险标签钱包', 'No risk-tagged wallets found')} 🟢") +if risk_overlap > 0: + # 分类明细相加会大于"合计" —— 说明差额来自多标签钱包,而不是算错了 + print(f" · {_(f'合计已去重({risk_overlap} 个钱包带多个风险标签)', f'Total is deduped ({risk_overlap} wallet(s) carry multiple risk tags)')}") print() -bundler_pct_val = sum(h['amount_percentage'] for h in bundlers) -sniper_pct_val = sum(h['amount_percentage'] for h in snipers) -if dangers: +if no_holders: + # 级联最后一档是"🟢 没发现明显砸盘风险"。空持仓表会一路落到那里, + # 把"没有数据"渲染成"没有风险" —— 必须在入口就拦掉。 + sdp_summary = _( "⚪ 没有任何持仓数据,砸盘风险无法判断(不是“无风险”)", + "⚪ No holder data at all — dump risk cannot be judged (this is not \"no risk\")") +elif float_degenerate: + # 这段级联里每一条判据都是流通盘占比,退化时全是噪声 —— 只能重复"没法评" + sdp_summary = _( f"⚪ 流通盘只剩 {pct_s(float_raw)},上面的占比都是除零放大的结果,砸盘风险无法判断", + f"⚪ Only {pct_s(float_raw)} of supply is tradeable — the percentages above are divide-by-zero artifacts; dump risk cannot be judged") +elif dangers: sdp_summary = f"🔴 {dangers[0]}" -elif rats_pct > 0.05: +elif rats_pct > 0.03: sdp_summary = _( f"🔴 老鼠仓持仓 {pct(rats_pct):.1f}%,零成本拿的,随时可以无损砸盘", f"🔴 Rat traders hold {pct(rats_pct):.1f}% at zero cost — can dump with no loss anytime") -elif top10 > 0.4: +elif top10 > 0.5: sdp_summary = _( f"🟡 Top10 持仓 {pct(top10):.1f}%,筹码过于集中,大户一旦出货冲击很大", f"🟡 Top10 hold {pct(top10):.1f}% — highly concentrated, big impact if they sell") -elif bundler_pct_val > 0.2: +elif bundler_pct_val > 0.3: sdp_summary = _( f"🟡 捆绑钱包持仓 {pct(bundler_pct_val):.1f}%,这批是开盘机器人扫货,出货时可能集中砸盘", f"🟡 Bundlers hold {pct(bundler_pct_val):.1f}% — bot-swept at open, may dump together") -elif airdrop_pct > 0.15: +elif airdrop_pct > 0.2: sdp_summary = _( f"🟡 空降筹码 {pct(airdrop_pct):.1f}%,这些人零成本拿到币,随时可能出货", f"🟡 Airdrop supply {pct(airdrop_pct):.1f}% at zero cost — may sell anytime") -elif sniper_pct_val > 0.1: +elif sniper_pct_val > 0.15: sdp_summary = _( f"🟡 狙击者持仓 {pct(sniper_pct_val):.1f}%,开盘低价进的,浮盈高、随时可套现", f"🟡 Snipers hold {pct(sniper_pct_val):.1f}% at launch price — high unrealized gain, may cash out") -elif risk_pct > 0.1: +elif risk_pct > 0.15: sdp_summary = _( f"🟡 风险钱包合计持仓 {pct(risk_pct):.1f}%,需要留意动向", f"🟡 Risk wallets total {pct(risk_pct):.1f}% — watch their moves") elif burn_pct > 0.1: @@ -404,9 +686,9 @@ print(f" {_('浮盈越高 / 建仓MC越低 → 获利了结压力越强', 'High print() for i, h in enumerate(top5_holders, 1): role_str, display_id, cost_str, pnl_str, lv, note, beh_str, st = top5_pressure(h) - hp = pct(h['amount_percentage']) + hp = fpct(f1(h['amount_percentage'])) print(f" {i}. {role_str}{display_id}") - print(f" {_('持仓', 'hold')} {hp:.2f}% {cost_str} {_('盈亏', 'pnl')} {pnl_str}") + print(f" {_('持仓', 'hold')} {hp} {cost_str} {_('盈亏', 'pnl')} {pnl_str}") print(f" {_('抛压', 'pressure')} {lv} — {note}") print(f" {_('状态', 'status')} {st}{beh_str}") print() @@ -414,8 +696,13 @@ for i, h in enumerate(top5_holders, 1): sec2 = _("👨‍💻 Dev 钱包", "👨‍💻 Dev Wallets") print(f"━━ {sec2} {'━'*(54-len(sec2))}") print() -dev_status = (_("✅ 全部余额归零", "✅ All cleared") if not dev_holding - else _(f"⚠️ 仍有 {len(dev_holding)} 个持仓中", f"⚠️ {len(dev_holding)} still holding")) +# 一个 dev 都没查到 ≠ dev 已清仓 —— 前者是查不到,后者是查到了且为零 +if not devs: + dev_status = _("— 未查到 dev 钱包", "— no dev wallets found") +elif not dev_holding: + dev_status = _("✅ 全部余额归零", "✅ All cleared") +else: + dev_status = _(f"⚠️ 仍有 {len(dev_holding)} 个持仓中", f"⚠️ {len(dev_holding)} still holding") if sub_devs: print(f" {_('共', 'Total')} {len(devs)} {_('个钱包(1 主号 + ', 'wallets (1 main + ')}{len(sub_devs)}{_(' 小号)', ' sub)')} {dev_status}") else: @@ -427,9 +714,9 @@ if creator: tf_out = creator.get('history_transfer_out_amount') or 0 tf_val = creator.get('history_transfer_out_income') or 0 sell_amt = creator.get('sell_amount_cur') or 0 - hold_pct_c = creator.get('amount_percentage') or 0 + hold_pct_c = f1(creator.get('amount_percentage') or 0) c_status = (_("余额归零", "Balance zero") if (creator.get('balance') or 0)<1 - else _(f"⚠️ 持仓 {pct(hold_pct_c):.2f}%", f"⚠️ Holding {pct(hold_pct_c):.2f}%")) + else _(f"⚠️ 持仓 {fpct(hold_pct_c)}", f"⚠️ Holding {fpct(hold_pct_c)}")) print(f" {_('主号 (Creator)', 'Main (Creator)')} {addr_short(creator['address'])}") parts = [c_status] if sell_amt>0: @@ -451,7 +738,7 @@ if creator: target = top100_map[to_addr] t_mtags = [t for t in (target.get('maker_token_tags') or []) if t not in ('top_holder','transfer_in')] print(f"\n ⚠️ {_('转出筹码仍在 Top100(换马甲继续持有):', 'Transferred chips still in Top100 (sock puppet):')}") - print(f" {addr_short(to_addr)} {_('持仓', 'hold')} {pct(target.get('amount_percentage',0)):.2f}% {_('标签', 'tags')}: {' '.join(t_mtags) or _('无','none')}") + print(f" {addr_short(to_addr)} {_('持仓', 'hold')} {fpct(f1(target.get('amount_percentage') or 0))} {_('标签', 'tags')}: {' '.join(t_mtags) or _('无','none')}") elif (creator.get('balance') or 0)<1 and tf_out==0: print(f" ✅ {_('已完全卖出,无异常转账记录', 'Fully sold, no abnormal transfers')}") print() @@ -483,9 +770,19 @@ if creator: print(f" {i}. {t.get('symbol','?')} {usd(float(t.get('market_cap') or 0))} [{mig_label}]") ath_info = created_data.get('creator_ath_info') or {} if ath_info and ath_info.get('ath_mc'): - is_curr = ath_info.get('ath_token','').lower()==TOKEN_ADDR.lower() + ath_mc = float(ath_info.get('ath_mc') or 0) + is_curr = ath_info.get('ath_token','').lower()==TOKEN_ADDR.lower() curr_label = _('(本币)', ' (this token)') if is_curr else '' - print(f" {_('历史最高市值', 'All-time high MC')}: {ath_info.get('token_name','')}({ath_info.get('token_symbol','?')}){curr_label} ATH {usd(float(ath_info.get('ath_mc') or 0))}") + # 历史最高市值低于当前市值在数学上不可能(本币此刻的市值本身就是它的历史候选), + # 说明上游 ath 字段还没跟上这轮拉升 —— 实测 token info 的 ath_price 等于 + # price_24h,一个 24 小时涨了上百倍的币,ATH 就会停在一天前的价位。 + # 照原样打印会被当成真实峰值,进而拿去算"距离 ATH 还有多少空间"。留 5% 容差, + # 因为 cur_mc 自己是 median(usd_value/balance) × median(supply) 的估算值。 + stale_ath = ath_mc > 0 and cur_mc > 0 and ath_mc < cur_mc * 0.95 + ath_note = "" if not stale_ath else _( + f" ⚠️ 低于当前市值 {usd(cur_mc)},上游 ATH 数据滞后,不可作为峰值参考", + f" ⚠️ below current MC {usd(cur_mc)} — upstream ATH is stale, not a usable peak") + print(f" {_('历史最高市值', 'All-time high MC')}: {ath_info.get('token_name','')}({ath_info.get('token_symbol','?')}){curr_label} ATH {usd(ath_mc)}{ath_note}") print() sec3 = _("🔗 关联资金", "🔗 Related Funds") @@ -494,51 +791,68 @@ print() print(f" {_('多个钱包来自同一资金来源地址,或在极短时间内同步注资', 'Multiple wallets from same funding source or funded in tight time windows')}") print() if related: - relf = "🔴" if related_pct>0.15 else ("🟡" if related_pct>0.05 else "🟢") - print(f" {_('涉及', 'Involves')} {len(related)} {_('个钱包', 'wallets')} {_('持仓', 'hold')} {pct(related_pct):.2f}% {usd(related_usd)} {relf}") + relf = pf("🔴" if related_pct>0.25 else ("🟡" if related_pct>0.1 else "🟢")) + # 秒级批量注资本身就是异常信号,不该因为占比小而在标题上显示为绿。判据是钱包数与 + # 时间跨度,不含流通盘占比,所以流通盘退化时(relf 为 ⚪)这条升级依然有效。 + if tight_groups and relf in ("🟢", "⚪"): relf = "🟡" + print(f" {_('涉及', 'Involves')} {len(related)} {_('个钱包', 'wallets')} {_('持仓', 'hold')} {fpct(related_pct)} {usd(related_usd)} {relf}") print() - print(f" ├─ {_('同一资金来源地址', 'Same funding source')} {len(same_src_groups)} {_('组', 'groups')} / {same_src_wallets} {_('个钱包', 'wallets')} {_('持仓', 'hold')} {pct(same_src_pct):.2f}%") + print(f" ├─ {_('强关联(同一来源 + 时间集中或金额一致)', 'Strong (same source + tight timing or uniform amounts)')} {len(same_src_groups)} {_('组', 'groups')} / {same_src_wallets} {_('个钱包', 'wallets')} {_('持仓', 'hold')} {fpct(same_src_pct)}") if same_src_groups: fa, ws = same_src_groups[0] - native_in = sum(float((w.get('native_transfer') or {}).get('amount',0) or 0) for w in ws) - native_sym = 'SOL' if CHAIN=='sol' else ('BNB' if CHAIN=='bsc' else 'ETH') - print(f" │ {_('最大组', 'Largest group')}: {len(ws)} {_('个钱包', 'wallets')} {_('同一地址先后转入启动资金', 'funded sequentially from same addr')} {native_in:.4f} {native_sym}") + native_in = sum(float(_tr(w, 'amount', 0) or 0) for w in ws) + print(f" │ {_('最大组', 'Largest group')}: {len(ws)} {_('个钱包', 'wallets')} {_('来源', 'from')} {addr_short(fa)} {_('合计注资', 'total funded')} {native_in:.4f} {NSYM}") + if weak_src_groups: + # 只共用转入地址、时间金额都不一致 —— 交易所热钱包和团伙长得一样,不能混进合计 + print(f" ├─ {_('弱关联(仅共用转入地址,可能是交易所热钱包)', 'Weak (shared source only, may be a CEX hot wallet)')} {len(weak_src_groups)} {_('组', 'groups')} / {weak_src_wallets} {_('个钱包', 'wallets')} {_('持仓', 'hold')} {fpct(weak_src_pct)} {_('不计入上方合计', 'excluded from total above')}") print(f" │") if win_groups: - win_total = sum(len(v) for __,v in win_groups) - if win_total>=3: - k,v = win_groups[0] - print(f" └─ {_('同期注资(30min内集中入场)', 'Coordinated funding (within 30min)')} {win_total} {_('个钱包', 'wallets')} {_('持仓', 'hold')} {pct(win_pct):.2f}% ⚠️") - print(f" {_('最大批次', 'Largest batch')}: {len(v)} {_('个钱包', 'wallets')} {_('合计持仓', 'total hold')} {pct(sum(h['amount_percentage'] for h in v)):.3f}%") + win_total = sum(len(v) for v in win_groups) + if tight_groups: + print(f" └─ {_(f'同步注资({WINDOW//60}min 内集中入场)', f'Coordinated funding (within {WINDOW//60}min)')} {win_total} {_('个钱包', 'wallets')} {_('持仓', 'hold')} {fpct(win_pct)} 🔴") + print(f" 🔴 {_(f'其中 {tight_wallets} 个钱包在 {TIGHT} 秒内被同步注资,基本可判定脚本批量打款', f'{tight_wallets} wallet(s) funded within {TIGHT}s — almost certainly scripted batch funding')}") + elif win_total>=3: + print(f" └─ {_(f'同步注资({WINDOW//60}min 内集中入场)', f'Coordinated funding (within {WINDOW//60}min)')} {win_total} {_('个钱包', 'wallets')} {_('持仓', 'hold')} {fpct(win_pct)} ⚠️") else: - print(f" └─ {_('同期注资(30min内集中入场)', 'Coordinated funding (within 30min)')} {win_total} {_('个钱包', 'wallets')} {_('持仓', 'hold')} {pct(win_pct):.2f}%") + print(f" └─ {_(f'同步注资({WINDOW//60}min 内集中入场)', f'Coordinated funding (within {WINDOW//60}min)')} {win_total} {_('个钱包', 'wallets')} {_('持仓', 'hold')} {fpct(win_pct)}") + # 只有一个批次时,明细就是上面那行,不重复打印 + if len(win_groups) > 1: + v = win_groups[0] + print(f" {_('最大批次', 'Largest batch')}: {len(v)} {_('个钱包', 'wallets')} {_('合计持仓', 'total hold')} {fpct(fs(v), 3)} {_('时间跨度', 'span')} {_span(v)}s") + else: + print(f" {_('时间跨度', 'Span')} {_span(win_groups[0])}s") else: - print(f" └─ {_('未发现同期集中注资', 'No coordinated funding detected')}") + print(f" └─ {_('未发现同步集中注资', 'No coordinated funding detected')}") else: - print(f" {_('未发现明显关联资金', 'No significant linked funds detected')} 🟢") + if no_holders: + print(f" {_('没有钱包可供检查资金来源', 'No wallets available to trace funding')} ⚪") + else: + print(f" {_('未发现明显关联资金', 'No significant linked funds detected')} 🟢") + if weak_src_groups: + print(f" ({_(f'{weak_src_wallets} 个钱包共用转入地址,但时间和金额都不一致,判为交易所出金而非团伙', f'{weak_src_wallets} wallets share a funding address but differ in timing and amount — read as CEX withdrawals, not a gang')})") print() sec4 = _("🧠 优质信号", "🧠 Quality Signals") print(f"━━ {sec4} {'━'*(54-len(sec4))}") print() -print(f" {_('聪明钱', 'Smart Money')} {len(smart):2d} {_('持仓', 'hold')} {pct(smart_pct):.2f}% {'✅' if smart else '—'}") +# ✅/— 只表示"这类钱包在不在场",是个数派生的、不经过 float_share,退化时依然成立, +# 所以不走 pf();被中和掉的只是占比数字本身。 +print(f" {_('聪明钱', 'Smart Money')} {len(smart):2d} {_('持仓', 'hold')} {fpct(smart_pct)} {'✅' if smart else '—'}") if smart: print(f" {_('近期动向', 'Recent')}: {trend_str(smart)}") -print(f" KOL {len(kol):2d} {_('持仓', 'hold')} {pct(kol_pct):.2f}% {'✅' if kol else '—'}") +print(f" KOL {len(kol):2d} {_('持仓', 'hold')} {fpct(kol_pct)} {'✅' if kol else '—'}") if kol: for h in kol: name = h.get('twitter_name') or h.get('name') or addr_short(h['address']) - print(f" · {name} {_('持仓', 'hold')} {pct(h['amount_percentage']):.2f}% {holding_status(h)} {_('买/卖', 'buy/sell')}: {h.get('buy_tx_count_cur',0)}/{h.get('sell_tx_count_cur',0)}") -print(f" {_('鲸鱼', 'Whale')} {len(whales):2d} {_('持仓', 'hold')} {pct(whale_pct):.2f}% {'✅' if whales else '—'}") + print(f" · {name} {_('持仓', 'hold')} {fpct(f1(h['amount_percentage']))} {holding_status(h)} {_('买/卖', 'buy/sell')}: {h.get('buy_tx_count_cur',0)}/{h.get('sell_tx_count_cur',0)}") +print(f" {_('鲸鱼', 'Whale')} {len(whales):2d} {_('持仓', 'hold')} {fpct(whale_pct)} {'✅' if whales else '—'}") if whales: print(f" {_('近期动向', 'Recent')}: {trend_str(whales)}") print() -df = "✅" if diamond_pct>0.5 else ("🟡" if diamond_pct>0.3 else "⚠️") -print(f" {_('钻石手(从未卖出)', 'Diamond hands (never sold)')} {len(diamond):2d} {_('持仓', 'hold')} {pct(diamond_pct):.1f}% {df}") +df = pf("✅" if diamond_pct>0.6 else ("🟡" if diamond_pct>0.35 else "⚠️")) +print(f" {_('钻石手(买入过且从未卖出)', 'Diamond hands (bought & never sold)')} {len(diamond):2d} {_('持仓', 'hold')} {fpct(diamond_pct, 1)} {df}") +if idle_airdrop: + # 单独一行,避免读者把这批零成本筹码当成"扛住了没卖"的钻石手 + print(f" {_('空降未动(从未买入也未卖出)', 'Idle airdrop (never bought, never sold)')} {len(idle_airdrop):2d} {_('持仓', 'hold')} {fpct(idle_airdrop_pct, 1)} {_('零成本,不计入钻石手', 'zero cost — not counted as diamond hands')}") print(f" {_('部分卖出(<50%)', 'Partial sell (<50%)')} {len(partial):2d} {_('大量卖出(≥50%)', 'Heavy sell (≥50%)')} {len(heavy_sell):2d}") -sig_count = len(smart) + len(kol) + len(whales) -kol_selling = [h for h in kol if (h.get('sell_tx_count_cur') or 0) > 0] -kol_holding = [h for h in kol if (h.get('sell_tx_count_cur') or 0) == 0 and (h.get('balance') or 0) >= 1] -smart_selling = [h for h in smart if (h.get('sell_tx_count_cur') or 0) > 0] -smart_holding = [h for h in smart if (h.get('sell_tx_count_cur') or 0) == 0 and (h.get('balance') or 0) >= 1] if sig_count == 0: sig_summary = _("🟡 没有聪明钱和KOL,这个币没什么外部背书", "🟡 No smart money or KOL — no external endorsement") @@ -576,10 +890,9 @@ sig_clusters = sorted([(age,ws) for age,ws in time_clusters.items() if len(ws)>= for rank, (age, ws) in enumerate(sig_clusters, 1): entry_ts = token_launch + age*86400 label = age_label(entry_ts) - total_hp = sum(h['amount_percentage'] for h in ws) + total_hp = fs(ws) costed = [h for h in ws if (h.get('avg_cost') or 0)>0] - selling_out = [h for h in ws if holding_status(h) in ( - _('🔴 大量出货','🔴 Heavy Selling'), _('🟡 出货中','🟡 Selling'))] + selling_out = [h for h in ws if is_distributing(h)] still_hold = [h for h in ws if (h.get('balance') or 0)>=1] if costed: avg_entry = sum(total_supply*h['avg_cost'] for h in costed)/len(costed) @@ -611,7 +924,9 @@ for rank, (age, ws) in enumerate(sig_clusters, 1): holding_cnt = len([h for h in ws if is_buying_only(h)]) sell_str = f" 🚨 {_('出货中','selling')} {selling_cnt}" if selling_cnt else "" hold_str = f" 📈 {_('加仓中','accumulating')} {holding_cnt}" if holding_cnt else "" - print(f" {batch_label}{rank}{_('(', '(')}{label}{_(')', ')')} {len(ws)} {_('个钱包', 'wallets')} {_('持仓', 'hold')} {pct(total_hp):.2f}% {risk_flag}{sell_str}{hold_str}") + # 批次占比同样以流通盘为分母 —— 退化时会把一个尘埃批次打成 "hold 100.00% 🟢", + # 一行之内同时给出"全部筹码"和"没风险"两个错误结论。数字和旗标都要中和。 + print(f" {batch_label}{rank}{_('(', '(')}{label}{_(')', ')')} {len(ws)} {_('个钱包', 'wallets')} {_('持仓', 'hold')} {fpct(total_hp)} {pf(risk_flag)}{sell_str}{hold_str}") print(f" {mc_str}") print(f" ➤ {conclusion}") print() @@ -619,23 +934,39 @@ for rank, (age, ws) in enumerate(sig_clusters, 1): sec6 = _("💰 持仓者购买力", "💰 Holder Buying Power") print(f"━━ {sec6} {'━'*(54-len(sec6))}") print() -print(f" {_('衡量现有持仓者还有多少子弹可以加仓', 'How much ammo holders have left to add')} {_('合计可用余额', 'Total balance')} {usd(total_buying_power)}") -print() +if not HAS_NATIVE: + print(f" {_('衡量现有持仓者还有多少子弹可以加仓', 'How much ammo holders have left to add')}") + print() + print(f" ⚠️ {_(f'{CHAIN} 链的原生代币精度未确认,native_balance 无法换算 —— 本节不做评估', f'Native decimals unconfirmed for {CHAIN}; native_balance cannot be converted — section not assessed')}") + print() +else: + if HAS_PRICE: + bp_str = _(f"{usd(total_buying_power)}({fmt_native(total_buying_power_native)} @ {price_str(NATIVE_PRICE)})", + f"{usd(total_buying_power)} ({fmt_native(total_buying_power_native)} @ {price_str(NATIVE_PRICE)})") + else: + bp_str = fmt_native(total_buying_power_native) + print(f" {_('衡量现有持仓者还有多少子弹可以加仓', 'How much ammo holders have left to add')} {_('合计可用余额', 'Total balance')} {bp_str}") + print() if zero_wallets: - print(f" ⚫ {_('零余额', 'Zero balance')} {len(zero_wallets):3d} {_('个钱包', 'wallets')} {_('持仓', 'hold')} {pct(zero_pct_val):.2f}% $0 → {_('无加仓能力,可能是分仓小号', 'No buying power, likely sub-wallets')}") -if low_wallets: - low_total = sum(native_usd(h) for h in low_wallets) - print(f" 🟡 {_('低(<$200)', 'Low (<$200)')} {len(low_wallets):3d} {_('个钱包', 'wallets')} {_('持仓', 'hold')} {pct(low_pct_val):.2f}% {usd(low_total)}") -if mid_wallets: - mid_total = sum(native_usd(h) for h in mid_wallets) - print(f" 🟠 {_('中($200~$1200)', 'Mid ($200~$1200)')} {len(mid_wallets):3d} {_('个钱包', 'wallets')} {_('持仓', 'hold')} {pct(mid_pct_val):.2f}% {usd(mid_total)}") -if high_wallets: - print(f" 🔴 {_('高($1200+)', 'High ($1200+)')} {len(high_wallets):3d} {_('个钱包', 'wallets')} {_('持仓', 'hold')} {pct(high_pct_val):.2f}% {usd(high_total)} → {_('可随时加仓', 'can add anytime')}") + print(f" ⚫ {_('零余额', 'Zero balance')} {len(zero_wallets):3d} {_('个钱包', 'wallets')} {_('持仓', 'hold')} {fpct(zero_pct_val)} — → {_('无加仓能力,可能是分仓小号', 'No buying power, likely sub-wallets')}") +if HAS_PRICE: + if low_wallets: + low_total = sum(native_usd(h) for h in low_wallets) + print(f" 🟡 {_('低(<$200)', 'Low (<$200)')} {len(low_wallets):3d} {_('个钱包', 'wallets')} {_('持仓', 'hold')} {fpct(low_pct_val)} {usd(low_total)}") + if mid_wallets: + mid_total = sum(native_usd(h) for h in mid_wallets) + print(f" 🟠 {_('中($200~$1200)', 'Mid ($200~$1200)')} {len(mid_wallets):3d} {_('个钱包', 'wallets')} {_('持仓', 'hold')} {fpct(mid_pct_val)} {usd(mid_total)}") + if high_wallets: + print(f" 🔴 {_('高($1200+)', 'High ($1200+)')} {len(high_wallets):3d} {_('个钱包', 'wallets')} {_('持仓', 'hold')} {fpct(high_pct_val)} {usd(high_total)} → {_('可随时加仓', 'can add anytime')}") +elif high_wallets: + # 拿不到原生代币价格,只按原生数量分档,不编造美元金额 + print(f" 🟢 {_('有余额', 'Has balance')} {len(high_wallets):3d} {_('个钱包', 'wallets')} {_('持仓', 'hold')} {fpct(high_pct_val)} {fmt_native(high_native)}") + print(f" ({_(f'{CHAIN} 链拿不到 {NSYM} 价格,仅显示原生数量', f'No {NSYM} price for {CHAIN}, native amount only')})") print() -if high_wallets: - print(f" ➤ {_('高余额钱包', 'High-balance wallets')} {len(high_wallets)} {_('个持仓', 'holding')} {pct(high_pct_val):.1f}%{_(',', ', ')}{_('合计', 'total')} {usd(high_total)} {_('可随时加仓', 'ready to add')}") -if zero_wallets and zero_pct_val > 0.05: - print(f" ➤ {len(zero_wallets)} {_('个钱包零余额(持仓 ', 'wallets with zero balance (hold ')}{pct(zero_pct_val):.1f}%{_(')', ')')}, {_('无加仓能力,可能是分仓小号', 'no buying power, likely sub-wallets')}") +if high_wallets and HAS_PRICE: + print(f" ➤ {_('高余额钱包', 'High-balance wallets')} {len(high_wallets)} {_('个持仓', 'holding')} {fpct(high_pct_val, 1)}{_(',', ', ')}{_('合计', 'total')} {usd(high_total)} {_('可随时加仓', 'ready to add')}") +if zero_wallets and zero_pct_val > 0.1: + print(f" ➤ {len(zero_wallets)} {_('个钱包零余额(持仓 ', 'wallets with zero balance (hold ')}{fpct(zero_pct_val, 1)}{_(')', ')')}, {_('无加仓能力,可能是分仓小号', 'no buying power, likely sub-wallets')}") print() sec7 = _("📊 筹码结构", "📊 Chip Structure") @@ -643,9 +974,11 @@ print(f"━━ {sec7} {'━'*(54-len(sec7))}") print() total_n = len(normal) if total_n > 0: - print(f" {_('盈利', 'Profit')} {len(profit_w)} ({len(profit_w)/total_n*100:.0f}%) {_('亏损', 'Loss')} {len(loss_w)} ({len(loss_w)/total_n*100:.0f}%) {_('持平', 'Break-even')} {total_n-len(profit_w)-len(loss_w)}") + # 钱包个数答"多数人赚没赚",流通盘占比答"赚钱的筹码有多重" —— 抛压看后者 + print(f" {_('盈利', 'Profit')} {len(profit_w)} ({len(profit_w)/total_n*100:.0f}% {_('钱包', 'wallets')} / {fpct(profit_pct, 1)} {_('流通盘', 'float')})") + print(f" {_('亏损', 'Loss')} {len(loss_w)} ({len(loss_w)/total_n*100:.0f}% {_('钱包', 'wallets')} / {fpct(loss_pct, 1)} {_('流通盘', 'float')}) {_('持平', 'Break-even')} {total_n-len(profit_w)-len(loss_w)}") tf_flag = "⚠️" if len(trapped)>30 else "" -print(f" {_('套牢盘(浮亏>20%)', 'Underwater (>20% loss)')} {len(trapped)} {_('持仓', 'hold')} {pct(sum(h['amount_percentage'] for h in trapped)):.2f}% {tf_flag}") +print(f" {_('套牢盘(浮亏>20%)', 'Underwater (>20% loss)')} {len(trapped)} {_('持仓', 'hold')} {fpct(trapped_pct)} {tf_flag}") print(f" {_('平均持仓时长', 'Avg hold duration')} {avg_hold_days:.1f} {_('天', 'days')}") print() @@ -663,8 +996,58 @@ if warns: if goods: print(f" {_('积极因素', 'Positives')}:") for g in goods: print(f" · {g}") -hf = "🔴" if healthy_ratio<0.3 else ("🟡" if healthy_ratio<0.5 else "🟢") -print(f"\n {_('健康筹码', 'Healthy chips')} {pct(healthy_ratio):.1f}% {hf} DEX {pct(dex_pct):.1f}% {_('不纳入评估', 'excluded from eval')}") +# 三个桶互斥、相加为 100%,读者能看出缺口是"有前科"还是"来源未知"造成的 +if no_holders: + # 三个桶全是 0.0% 时打印它们,等于宣称"筹码里既没有风险标签也没有空降" + print(f"\n {_('筹码质量', 'Chip quality')} ⚪ " + f"{_('没有观测到任何钱包,无法计算', 'no wallets observed — cannot compute')}") +else: + # 三个桶的分母是 normal_pct(总供应基准),不受流通盘退化影响,所以构成照常打印; + # 但退化盘里被观测到的筹码本身只有尘埃级,对着尘埃下 🔴/🟢 的结论没有意义 —— + # 评级已经是"无法评估",这里再亮一个红灯只会自相矛盾。故只中和旗标,并注明筹码体量。 + _qf_disp = pf(qf) + _qf_note = "" if not float_degenerate else _( + f",仅占总供应 {pct_s(normal_pct)}", f", only {pct_s(normal_pct)} of supply") + print(f"\n {_('筹码质量', 'Chip quality')} {_qf_disp} " + f"({_('占观测到的钱包筹码', 'share of observed wallet chips')}{_qf_note})") + print(f" {_('自己买入且无风险标签', 'Bought in, no risk tag')} {pct(clean_ratio):.1f}%" + f" {_('零成本空降', 'Zero-cost airdrop')} {pct(airdrop_ratio):.1f}%" + f" {_('风险标签', 'Risk-tagged')} {pct(risk_ratio):.1f}%") + if clean_ratio < 0.5 and airdrop_ratio > risk_ratio: + print(_( " (缺口主要来自零成本空降:来源未知,不等于已证实的坏筹码)", + " (Shortfall is mostly zero-cost airdrop — unknown provenance, not proven-bad chips)")) +# 退化时 .1f 会把 0.0035% 打成 0.0%,和"未发现 LP"的 0 混成一个数 +_fs_disp = pct_s(float_raw) if float_degenerate else f"{pct(float_share):.1f}%" +# coverage = normal_pct / float_share,退化时它同样是除零结果(恒等于 100%),不能报 +_cov_disp = "" if unassessable else _(f" Top100 覆盖流通盘 {pct(coverage):.0f}%", + f" Top100 covers {pct(coverage):.0f}% of float") +if burn_pct + dex_pct > 0.001: + print(_( f" 流通盘 {_fs_disp}(销毁 {pct(burn_pct):.1f}% + DEX {pct(dex_pct):.1f}% 已剔除,不纳入评估){_cov_disp}", + f" Float {_fs_disp} (burn {pct(burn_pct):.1f}% + DEX {pct(dex_pct):.1f}% excluded){_cov_disp}")) +else: + # 没有销毁也没有 LP 行,就别写"已剔除 0.0%" + print(_( f" 流通盘 100%(未发现销毁地址与 DEX 池){_cov_disp}", + f" Float 100% (no burn address or DEX pool found){_cov_disp}")) +# 这条脚注必须跟着实际覆盖率走。原先无条件打印,于是在 Top100 覆盖 100% 流通盘的币上, +# 它和上一行的"Top100 覆盖流通盘 100%"当场自相矛盾 —— 一行说覆盖满了,下一行说没覆盖满。 +if no_holders: + # coverage = 0 会让下面那条打成"Top100 覆盖 0%,所以是下限"—— 下限的说法预设了有数据 + print(_( " 以上占比没有任何持仓数据支撑,既不是下限也不是完整值,请勿据此比较", + " The percentages above rest on no holder data at all — they are neither floors nor complete values; do not compare on them")) +elif float_degenerate: + # 退化时 coverage 本身也是 f1() 的产物,同样是噪声,两种说法都不能给 + print(_( " 以上持仓占比的分母(流通盘)趋零,数值不可用于横向比较,请以本节顶部的绝对值为准", + " The float denominator above is near zero, so these percentages are not comparable — use the absolute figures at the top of this section")) +elif coverage < 0.995: + print(_( f" 以上持仓占比均以流通盘为分母;Top100 只覆盖其中 {pct(coverage):.0f}%,未覆盖的部分意味着这些占比是下限", + f" Percentages above are share of tradeable float; Top100 covers {pct(coverage):.0f}% of it, so they are floors")) +else: + print(_( " 以上持仓占比均以流通盘为分母;Top100 已覆盖全部流通盘,占比即完整值而非下限", + " Percentages above are share of tradeable float; Top100 covers all of it, so they are complete values, not floors")) +if coverage < 0.5 and not unassessable: + # 覆盖率低时,"占比小"只说明 Top100 之外还有很多筹码,不能读成利好 + print(_( f" ⚠️ Top100 只覆盖了流通盘的 {pct(coverage):.0f}%,占比偏低的指标属于未知而非利好", + f" ⚠️ Top100 covers only {pct(coverage):.0f}% of float — low percentages mean unknown, not good")) print() print(f" {_('关注以下信号,出现则考虑离场:', 'Watch for these exit signals:')}") for sig in exit_signals: