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fx-quant/results/phase1/S5_USD_JPY_report.json
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Brent NealeandClaude Opus 4.6 edbe359d1b Phase 1 complete: S3-S6 strategies, S4 variant analysis, learnings doc
- S3 Key Level Breakout: best performer (52-53% WR, PF ~1.0 on JPY crosses)
- S4 EMA Ribbon: tested 7 variants (D/E/F/F-v2/G/G-Minimal), exhausted
  - Only EUR_AUD S4-F marginally profitable (PF 1.06)
  - Detailed filter funnel analysis revealed contradictory filter stacking
- S5 Momentum Exhaustion: extended to 5 pairs, PF 0.43-0.77
- S6 EMA Bounce: 59-60% WR but PF 0.83-0.84, needs SL/TP restructuring
- Added STRATEGY_LEARNINGS.md with design principles and next steps
- Added M5 data downloader for 3-timeframe strategies
- Updated README with full strategy scorecard

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-02-18 20:42:16 +10:00

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JSON

{
"pair": "USD_JPY",
"strategy_id": 5,
"strategy_name": "S5_Momentum_Exhaustion",
"total_trades": 679,
"win_rate_pct": 49.63,
"avg_rr": 0.76,
"expectancy_pips": -2.05,
"sharpe_ratio": -2.84,
"max_drawdown_pct": -68.24,
"profit_factor": 0.67,
"total_pnl_pips": -1391.9,
"total_pnl_dollars": -65278.72,
"avg_win_pips": 12.01,
"avg_loss_pips": 15.9,
"max_consecutive_wins": 7,
"max_consecutive_losses": 7,
"avg_hold_time_minutes": 201.2,
"best_trade_pips": 68.1,
"worst_trade_pips": -51.88,
"best_trade_dollars": 1151.83,
"worst_trade_dollars": -1000.0,
"final_equity": 34721.28,
"starting_equity": 100000.0,
"session_breakdown": {
"LONDON": {
"trades": 451,
"win_rate": 50.554323725055426,
"total_pnl_pips": -695.5523597839677
},
"OVERLAP": {
"trades": 228,
"win_rate": 47.80701754385965,
"total_pnl_pips": -696.3500369065823
}
},
"exit_reasons": {
"SL": 342,
"TP1+SL": 159,
"TP1+TP2+SL": 102,
"TP3": 76
}
}