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Brent Neale 8df1bac3a4 Add 2025 forward validation: only S3 survives out of 4 strategies
Downloaded 2025 data (Oct 2024-Dec 2025) for GBP_JPY H1, GBP_AUD H1,
GBP_USD M15+H1 via Dukascopy. Ran all 4 Phase 2 passing strategies on
2025 data. Results: S7_Tight PF=0.52 FAIL, S9_Filtered PF=0.74 FAIL,
S3 PF=1.05 PASS (+52p), S8_OB PF=0.84 FAIL. Portfolio PF=0.83 (-373p).
Only S3 (Key Level Breakout) maintained edge into 2025.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-02-21 12:00:22 +10:00

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{
"S7_Tight": {
"pair": "GBP_JPY",
"timeframe": "H1",
"metrics_2025": {
"trades": 18,
"wr": 55.6,
"pf": 0.52,
"sharpe": -4.36,
"pnl_pips": -293.6,
"max_dd_pips": -450.7,
"expectancy": -16.31
}
},
"S9_Filtered": {
"pair": "GBP_AUD",
"timeframe": "H1",
"metrics_2025": {
"trades": 18,
"wr": 55.6,
"pf": 0.74,
"sharpe": -2.08,
"pnl_pips": -112.2,
"max_dd_pips": -199.7,
"expectancy": -6.23
}
},
"S3": {
"pair": "GBP_JPY",
"timeframe": "H1",
"metrics_2025": {
"trades": 35,
"wr": 42.9,
"pf": 1.05,
"sharpe": 0.36,
"pnl_pips": 52.2,
"max_dd_pips": -498.4,
"expectancy": 1.49
}
},
"S8_OB": {
"pair": "GBP_USD",
"timeframe": "M15",
"metrics_2025": {
"trades": 19,
"wr": 31.6,
"pf": 0.84,
"sharpe": -1.17,
"pnl_pips": -19.9,
"max_dd_pips": -103.9,
"expectancy": -1.04
}
},
"_portfolio": {
"metrics_2025": {
"trades": 90,
"wr": 45.6,
"pf": 0.83,
"sharpe": -1.23,
"pnl_pips": -373.4,
"max_dd_pips": -518.1,
"expectancy": -4.15
}
}
}