# src/backtester.py """ Backtesting engine for fx-quant. Reads features from Supabase, simulates the SMA cross strategy, and produces P&L, drawdown, and trade log outputs. """ import os import json import math from pathlib import Path import pandas as pd import numpy as np from supabase import create_client from config_loader import load_config, get_project_root # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Data fetching # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- def fetch_candles_from_supabase(instrument, granularity, supabase_client, table): """ Query Supabase fx_candles table filtered by instrument + granularity. Returns a pandas DataFrame indexed by time, sorted ascending. Drops rows where sma columns are NaN (warmup period). """ print(f"Fetching {instrument} / {granularity} from Supabase...") # Supabase JS-style pagination: fetch in pages of 1000 all_rows = [] page_size = 1000 offset = 0 while True: resp = ( supabase_client.table(table) .select("*") .eq("instrument", instrument) .eq("granularity", granularity) .order("time", desc=False) .range(offset, offset + page_size - 1) .execute() ) rows = resp.data or [] all_rows.extend(rows) if len(rows) < page_size: break offset += page_size if not all_rows: print(f" No data found for {instrument} / {granularity}.") return pd.DataFrame() df = pd.DataFrame(all_rows) df["time"] = pd.to_datetime(df["time"]) df = df.set_index("time").sort_index() # Convert numeric columns from possible string types numeric_cols = [c for c in df.columns if c not in ("instrument", "granularity")] for col in numeric_cols: df[col] = pd.to_numeric(df[col], errors="coerce") print(f" Fetched {len(df)} rows.") return df # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Signal generation # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- def generate_signals(df, strategy_cfg, ai_cfg=None): """ Generate trading signals based on strategy config. Currently supports 'sma_cross' rule only. Signal logic (long-only / flat): sma_short > sma_long → signal = 1 (long) sma_short < sma_long → signal = 0 (flat) If ai_cfg is provided, applies RSI overbought/oversold filtering to block entries at extreme levels. """ rule = strategy_cfg["rule"] if rule != "sma_cross": raise ValueError(f"Unsupported strategy rule: {rule}") short_w = strategy_cfg["params"]["short"] long_w = strategy_cfg["params"]["long"] sma_short_col = f"sma_{short_w}" sma_long_col = f"sma_{long_w}" # Drop rows where indicator columns are NaN (warmup) required_cols = [sma_short_col, sma_long_col, "close", "ret"] for col in required_cols: if col not in df.columns: raise KeyError(f"Missing required column: {col}") df = df.dropna(subset=[sma_short_col, sma_long_col, "ret"]).copy() # Signal: 1 when short SMA above long SMA, else 0 df["signal"] = np.where(df[sma_short_col] > df[sma_long_col], 1, 0) # Apply RSI filter if configured if ai_cfg: sanity = ai_cfg.get("sanity_checks", {}) rsi_ob = sanity.get("rsi_overbought") rsi_os = sanity.get("rsi_oversold") # Find the RSI column rsi_col = None for col in df.columns: if col.startswith("rsi_"): rsi_col = col break if rsi_col and (rsi_ob or rsi_os): rsi_vals = df[rsi_col] if rsi_ob is not None: df.loc[(df["signal"] == 1) & (rsi_vals > rsi_ob), "signal"] = 0 if rsi_os is not None: df.loc[(df["signal"] == 1) & (rsi_vals < rsi_os), "signal"] = 0 # Position changes only on crossover (detect changes) df["position"] = df["signal"] return df # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Backtest engine # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- def run_backtest(df, strategy_cfg): """ Walk through bars, track position, equity, trades. Returns dict with equity_curve (Series), trades (list of dicts), metrics (dict). """ trade_size_pct = strategy_cfg.get("trade_size_pct_of_equity", 0.01) max_dd_pct = strategy_cfg.get("max_drawdown_pct", 0.05) starting_equity = cfg_equity if (cfg_equity := strategy_cfg.get("starting_equity")) else 100_000.0 equity = starting_equity peak_equity = equity position = 0 # 0 = flat, 1 = long position_size = 0.0 stopped = False equity_curve = [] trades = [] times = df.index.tolist() signals = df["signal"].values closes = df["close"].values rets = df["ret"].values for i in range(len(df)): bar_time = times[i] sig = signals[i] price = closes[i] bar_ret = rets[i] # Check max drawdown stop if stopped: equity_curve.append(equity) continue # P&L from existing position if position == 1 and i > 0: pnl = position_size * bar_ret equity += pnl # Update peak and drawdown if equity > peak_equity: peak_equity = equity drawdown = (peak_equity - equity) / peak_equity if peak_equity > 0 else 0.0 # Max drawdown breached — stop trading if drawdown >= max_dd_pct: if position == 1: trades.append({ "time": bar_time, "side": "FLAT", "price": price, "position_size": 0.0, "equity": round(equity, 2), "drawdown": round(drawdown, 6), }) stopped = True position = 0 position_size = 0.0 equity_curve.append(equity) print(f" Max drawdown {max_dd_pct:.1%} breached at {bar_time}. Stopping.") continue # Position change if sig != position: if sig == 1 and position == 0: # Enter long position_size = equity * trade_size_pct trades.append({ "time": bar_time, "side": "BUY", "price": price, "position_size": round(position_size, 2), "equity": round(equity, 2), "drawdown": round(drawdown, 6), }) elif sig == 0 and position == 1: # Exit long trades.append({ "time": bar_time, "side": "FLAT", "price": price, "position_size": 0.0, "equity": round(equity, 2), "drawdown": round(drawdown, 6), }) position_size = 0.0 position = sig equity_curve.append(equity) equity_series = pd.Series(equity_curve, index=df.index, name="equity") metrics = compute_metrics(equity_series, trades, starting_equity) return { "equity_curve": equity_series, "trades": trades, "metrics": metrics, } # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Metrics # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- def compute_metrics(equity_curve, trades, starting_equity=100_000.0): """ Compute summary metrics from equity curve and trade list. """ final_equity = equity_curve.iloc[-1] if len(equity_curve) > 0 else starting_equity total_return_pct = ((final_equity - starting_equity) / starting_equity) * 100 # Max drawdown from equity curve peak = equity_curve.cummax() dd = (peak - equity_curve) / peak max_drawdown_pct = dd.max() * 100 if len(dd) > 0 else 0.0 # Trade stats num_trades = len(trades) # Count winning round-trips (BUY followed by FLAT with higher equity) wins = 0 buy_equity = None for t in trades: if t["side"] == "BUY": buy_equity = t["equity"] elif t["side"] == "FLAT" and buy_equity is not None: if t["equity"] > buy_equity: wins += 1 buy_equity = None round_trips = sum(1 for t in trades if t["side"] == "FLAT") win_rate = (wins / round_trips * 100) if round_trips > 0 else 0.0 # Sharpe ratio (annualized, from per-bar returns of the equity curve) eq_returns = equity_curve.pct_change().dropna() sharpe = 0.0 if len(eq_returns) > 1 and eq_returns.std() > 0: sharpe = (eq_returns.mean() / eq_returns.std()) * math.sqrt(252 * 24 * 60) # per-minute approx return { "starting_equity": round(starting_equity, 2), "total_return_pct": round(total_return_pct, 4), "max_drawdown_pct": round(max_drawdown_pct, 4), "num_trades": num_trades, "round_trips": round_trips, "win_rate_pct": round(win_rate, 2), "sharpe_ratio": round(sharpe, 4), "final_equity": round(final_equity, 2), } # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Results output # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- def compute_monthly_pnl(equity_curve, starting_equity=100_000.0): """ Compute P&L for each calendar month from the equity curve. Returns list of dicts with month, start_equity, end_equity, pnl, pnl_pct. """ monthly = [] # Group by year-month grouped = equity_curve.groupby(equity_curve.index.to_period("M")) prev_end = starting_equity for period, group in grouped: end_eq = group.iloc[-1] pnl = end_eq - prev_end pnl_pct = (pnl / prev_end * 100) if prev_end != 0 else 0.0 monthly.append({ "month": str(period), "start_equity": round(prev_end, 2), "end_equity": round(end_eq, 2), "pnl": round(pnl, 2), "pnl_pct": round(pnl_pct, 4), }) prev_end = end_eq return monthly def save_results(instrument, granularity, results, metrics): """ Save trade log CSV, monthly P&L, and a JSON summary for the dashboard. """ root = get_project_root() logs_dir = root / "logs" logs_dir.mkdir(exist_ok=True) trades = results["trades"] equity_curve = results["equity_curve"] # Trade log CSV if trades: trade_df = pd.DataFrame(trades) trade_df["instrument"] = instrument trade_df["granularity"] = granularity cols = ["time", "instrument", "granularity", "side", "price", "position_size", "equity", "drawdown"] trade_df = trade_df[cols] csv_path = logs_dir / f"backtest_trades_{instrument}_{granularity}.csv" trade_df.to_csv(csv_path, index=False) print(f" Trade log saved: {csv_path}") else: print(" No trades to log.") # Monthly P&L starting_equity = metrics.get("starting_equity", 100_000.0) monthly = compute_monthly_pnl(equity_curve, starting_equity) # Save JSON summary for dashboard summary = { "instrument": instrument, "granularity": granularity, "run_time": pd.Timestamp.now(tz="UTC").isoformat(), "data_range": { "start": str(equity_curve.index[0]) if len(equity_curve) > 0 else "", "end": str(equity_curve.index[-1]) if len(equity_curve) > 0 else "", "bars": len(equity_curve), }, "metrics": metrics, "monthly_pnl": monthly, } json_path = logs_dir / f"backtest_summary_{instrument}_{granularity}.json" with open(json_path, "w") as f: json.dump(summary, f, indent=2, default=str) print(f" Summary saved: {json_path}") # Console summary print(f"\n --- {instrument} / {granularity} Summary ---") print(f" Total return: {metrics['total_return_pct']:.4f}%") print(f" Max drawdown: {metrics['max_drawdown_pct']:.4f}%") print(f" Trades: {metrics['num_trades']} (round-trips: {metrics['round_trips']})") print(f" Win rate: {metrics['win_rate_pct']:.2f}%") print(f" Sharpe ratio: {metrics['sharpe_ratio']:.4f}") print(f" Final equity: ${metrics['final_equity']:,.2f}") # Monthly P&L table print(f"\n Monthly P&L:") print(f" {'Month':<10} {'Start':>12} {'End':>12} {'P&L':>10} {'%':>8}") print(f" {'-'*54}") for m in monthly: sign = "+" if m["pnl"] >= 0 else "" print(f" {m['month']:<10} ${m['start_equity']:>11,.2f} ${m['end_equity']:>11,.2f} {sign}${m['pnl']:>8,.2f} {sign}{m['pnl_pct']:.2f}%") print() # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Main # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- def main(): cfg = load_config() # Supabase client supabase_url = os.getenv("SUPABASE_URL") supabase_key = os.getenv("SUPABASE_KEY") if not supabase_url or not supabase_key: raise SystemExit("Missing SUPABASE_URL or SUPABASE_KEY in config/.env") sb = create_client(supabase_url, supabase_key) table = cfg.get("supabase", {}).get("table", "fx_candles") strategy_cfg = cfg["strategy"] ai_cfg = cfg.get("ai", {}) instruments = cfg["brokers"][0]["instruments"] granularities = cfg["data"]["candle_granularities"] rsi_ob = ai_cfg.get("sanity_checks", {}).get("rsi_overbought", "off") rsi_os = ai_cfg.get("sanity_checks", {}).get("rsi_oversold", "off") print(f"Backtesting strategy: {strategy_cfg['rule']}") print(f"RSI filter: overbought={rsi_ob}, oversold={rsi_os}") print(f"Instruments: {instruments}") print(f"Granularities: {granularities}\n") for instrument in instruments: for granularity in granularities: print(f"=== {instrument} / {granularity} ===") df = fetch_candles_from_supabase(instrument, granularity, sb, table) if df.empty: print(" Skipping — no data.\n") continue df = generate_signals(df, strategy_cfg, ai_cfg=ai_cfg) if df.empty: print(" Skipping — no valid rows after warmup.\n") continue results = run_backtest(df, strategy_cfg) save_results(instrument, granularity, results, results["metrics"]) print("Backtesting complete.") if __name__ == "__main__": main()