 Brent Neale
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8df1bac3a4
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Add 2025 forward validation: only S3 survives out of 4 strategies
Downloaded 2025 data (Oct 2024-Dec 2025) for GBP_JPY H1, GBP_AUD H1,
GBP_USD M15+H1 via Dukascopy. Ran all 4 Phase 2 passing strategies on
2025 data. Results: S7_Tight PF=0.52 FAIL, S9_Filtered PF=0.74 FAIL,
S3 PF=1.05 PASS (+52p), S8_OB PF=0.84 FAIL. Portfolio PF=0.83 (-373p).
Only S3 (Key Level Breakout) maintained edge into 2025.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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2026-02-21 12:00:22 +10:00 |
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Brent Neale
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dce54845c2
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Phase 1: Event-driven backtester, 5 strategies, and baseline results
- Built event-driven backtesting engine with spread/slippage modeling,
3-TP partial closes, trailing stops, and rich trade logging (20+ features)
- Implemented 5 strategy signal generators (MA Breakout, VWAP Reversal,
Key Level Breakout, EMA Ribbon Scalp, Momentum Exhaustion)
- Full indicator library (EMA, SMA, RSI, ATR, MACD, ADX, Stochastic,
Session VWAP bands, swing points, key levels, RSI divergence)
- Data pipeline: Dukascopy download, validation, 70/30 train/test split
- Baseline results: all 5 strategies generate 200+ trades on training data
(Jan 2021 - Aug 2023), best profit factors 0.82-0.96 on select pairs
- Trade logs and reports saved for Phase 3 ML feature engineering
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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2026-02-18 06:04:40 +10:00 |
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