From f4734f57c73cce0fa430b65ea21485862ec5b713 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Brent Neale Date: Tue, 17 Feb 2026 14:17:55 +1000 Subject: [PATCH] Optimize strategy to SMA 50/100 with RSI 80/20 filtering Added parameter sweep tool that tested 320 combinations across SMA periods, trade sizes, and RSI filters. Best result: SMA 50/100 on M15 with RSI 80/20 (Sharpe 5.69, 49% win rate). Updated backtester with RSI overbought/oversold signal filtering and config to match optimal parameters. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 --- config/system.yaml | 10 +- logs/backtest_summary_EUR_USD_M15.json | 124 +- logs/backtest_summary_EUR_USD_M5.json | 124 +- logs/backtest_trades_EUR_USD_M15.csv | 793 +++ logs/backtest_trades_EUR_USD_M5.csv | 2412 +++++++++- logs/param_sweep_results.json | 6082 ++++++++++++++++++++++++ src/backtester.py | 32 +- src/param_sweep.py | 308 ++ 8 files changed, 9739 insertions(+), 146 deletions(-) create mode 100644 logs/backtest_trades_EUR_USD_M15.csv create mode 100644 logs/param_sweep_results.json create mode 100644 src/param_sweep.py diff --git a/config/system.yaml b/config/system.yaml index 164d0cf..023e9a4 100644 --- a/config/system.yaml +++ b/config/system.yaml @@ -17,8 +17,8 @@ features: sma_windows: - 3 - 20 - - 21 - 50 + - 100 ema_windows: - 20 rsi_period: 14 @@ -36,14 +36,14 @@ ai: - gradient_boosting backtest_validation_window: 50 sanity_checks: - rsi_overbought: 90 - rsi_oversold: 10 + rsi_overbought: 80 + rsi_oversold: 20 volatility_multiplier: 3.0 strategy: rule: sma_cross params: - short: 21 - long: 50 + short: 50 + long: 100 trade_size_pct_of_equity: 0.025 max_drawdown_pct: 0.05 execution: diff --git a/logs/backtest_summary_EUR_USD_M15.json b/logs/backtest_summary_EUR_USD_M15.json index 69f226f..a969450 100644 --- a/logs/backtest_summary_EUR_USD_M15.json +++ b/logs/backtest_summary_EUR_USD_M15.json @@ -1,113 +1,113 @@ { "instrument": "EUR_USD", "granularity": "M15", - "run_time": "2026-02-17T03:21:00.971644+00:00", + "run_time": "2026-02-17T04:05:33.220977+00:00", "data_range": { - "start": "2025-02-17 15:30:00+00:00", - "end": "2026-02-17 03:15:00+00:00", - "bars": 24816 + "start": "2025-02-18 04:45:00+00:00", + "end": "2026-02-17 04:00:00+00:00", + "bars": 24766 }, "metrics": { "starting_equity": 100000.0, - "total_return_pct": 0.0729, - "max_drawdown_pct": 0.138, - "num_trades": 590, - "round_trips": 295, - "win_rate_pct": 33.22, - "sharpe_ratio": 1.965, - "final_equity": 100072.93 + "total_return_pct": 0.2026, + "max_drawdown_pct": 0.0716, + "num_trades": 792, + "round_trips": 396, + "win_rate_pct": 48.99, + "sharpe_ratio": 5.6852, + "final_equity": 100202.61 }, "monthly_pnl": [ { "month": "2025-02", "start_equity": 100000.0, - "end_equity": 99975.28, - "pnl": -24.72, - "pnl_pct": -0.0247 + "end_equity": 99991.06, + "pnl": -8.94, + "pnl_pct": -0.0089 }, { "month": "2025-03", - "start_equity": 99975.28, - "end_equity": 100010.04, - "pnl": 34.75, - "pnl_pct": 0.0348 + "start_equity": 99991.06, + "end_equity": 100028.15, + "pnl": 37.09, + "pnl_pct": 0.0371 }, { "month": "2025-04", - "start_equity": 100010.04, - "end_equity": 100114.13, - "pnl": 104.09, - "pnl_pct": 0.1041 + "start_equity": 100028.15, + "end_equity": 100119.79, + "pnl": 91.65, + "pnl_pct": 0.0916 }, { "month": "2025-05", - "start_equity": 100114.13, - "end_equity": 100147.54, - "pnl": 33.41, - "pnl_pct": 0.0334 + "start_equity": 100119.79, + "end_equity": 100111.46, + "pnl": -8.33, + "pnl_pct": -0.0083 }, { "month": "2025-06", - "start_equity": 100147.54, - "end_equity": 100141.15, - "pnl": -6.38, - "pnl_pct": -0.0064 + "start_equity": 100111.46, + "end_equity": 100172.69, + "pnl": 61.23, + "pnl_pct": 0.0612 }, { "month": "2025-07", - "start_equity": 100141.15, - "end_equity": 100108.29, - "pnl": -32.86, - "pnl_pct": -0.0328 + "start_equity": 100172.69, + "end_equity": 100116.29, + "pnl": -56.4, + "pnl_pct": -0.0563 }, { "month": "2025-08", - "start_equity": 100108.29, - "end_equity": 100121.7, - "pnl": 13.41, - "pnl_pct": 0.0134 + "start_equity": 100116.29, + "end_equity": 100118.32, + "pnl": 2.03, + "pnl_pct": 0.002 }, { "month": "2025-09", - "start_equity": 100121.7, - "end_equity": 100121.11, - "pnl": -0.59, - "pnl_pct": -0.0006 + "start_equity": 100118.32, + "end_equity": 100143.18, + "pnl": 24.85, + "pnl_pct": 0.0248 }, { "month": "2025-10", - "start_equity": 100121.11, - "end_equity": 100077.51, - "pnl": -43.6, - "pnl_pct": -0.0435 + "start_equity": 100143.18, + "end_equity": 100127.12, + "pnl": -16.06, + "pnl_pct": -0.016 }, { "month": "2025-11", - "start_equity": 100077.51, - "end_equity": 100068.99, - "pnl": -8.52, - "pnl_pct": -0.0085 + "start_equity": 100127.12, + "end_equity": 100144.22, + "pnl": 17.1, + "pnl_pct": 0.0171 }, { "month": "2025-12", - "start_equity": 100068.99, - "end_equity": 100072.84, - "pnl": 3.85, - "pnl_pct": 0.0039 + "start_equity": 100144.22, + "end_equity": 100163.99, + "pnl": 19.76, + "pnl_pct": 0.0197 }, { "month": "2026-01", - "start_equity": 100072.84, - "end_equity": 100084.84, - "pnl": 12.0, - "pnl_pct": 0.012 + "start_equity": 100163.99, + "end_equity": 100187.04, + "pnl": 23.05, + "pnl_pct": 0.023 }, { "month": "2026-02", - "start_equity": 100084.84, - "end_equity": 100072.93, - "pnl": -11.92, - "pnl_pct": -0.0119 + "start_equity": 100187.04, + "end_equity": 100202.61, + "pnl": 15.57, + "pnl_pct": 0.0155 } ] } \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/logs/backtest_summary_EUR_USD_M5.json b/logs/backtest_summary_EUR_USD_M5.json index 9940f55..2c7f399 100644 --- a/logs/backtest_summary_EUR_USD_M5.json +++ b/logs/backtest_summary_EUR_USD_M5.json @@ -1,113 +1,113 @@ { "instrument": "EUR_USD", "granularity": "M5", - "run_time": "2026-02-17T03:20:15.063316+00:00", + "run_time": "2026-02-17T04:04:59.620077+00:00", "data_range": { - "start": "2025-02-17 07:15:00+00:00", - "end": "2026-02-17 03:10:00+00:00", - "bars": 74536 + "start": "2025-02-17 12:10:00+00:00", + "end": "2026-02-17 03:55:00+00:00", + "bars": 74486 }, "metrics": { "starting_equity": 100000.0, - "total_return_pct": 0.0653, - "max_drawdown_pct": 0.1037, - "num_trades": 1684, - "round_trips": 842, - "win_rate_pct": 35.99, - "sharpe_ratio": 1.0001, - "final_equity": 100065.29 + "total_return_pct": 0.0779, + "max_drawdown_pct": 0.1162, + "num_trades": 2398, + "round_trips": 1199, + "win_rate_pct": 46.12, + "sharpe_ratio": 1.2429, + "final_equity": 100077.9 }, "monthly_pnl": [ { "month": "2025-02", "start_equity": 100000.0, - "end_equity": 99990.93, - "pnl": -9.07, - "pnl_pct": -0.0091 + "end_equity": 99985.78, + "pnl": -14.22, + "pnl_pct": -0.0142 }, { "month": "2025-03", - "start_equity": 99990.93, - "end_equity": 100043.93, - "pnl": 53.0, - "pnl_pct": 0.053 + "start_equity": 99985.78, + "end_equity": 100004.32, + "pnl": 18.54, + "pnl_pct": 0.0185 }, { "month": "2025-04", - "start_equity": 100043.93, - "end_equity": 100065.95, - "pnl": 22.02, - "pnl_pct": 0.022 + "start_equity": 100004.32, + "end_equity": 100113.96, + "pnl": 109.64, + "pnl_pct": 0.1096 }, { "month": "2025-05", - "start_equity": 100065.95, - "end_equity": 100122.9, - "pnl": 56.95, - "pnl_pct": 0.0569 + "start_equity": 100113.96, + "end_equity": 100119.43, + "pnl": 5.47, + "pnl_pct": 0.0055 }, { "month": "2025-06", - "start_equity": 100122.9, - "end_equity": 100129.99, - "pnl": 7.09, - "pnl_pct": 0.0071 + "start_equity": 100119.43, + "end_equity": 100120.13, + "pnl": 0.7, + "pnl_pct": 0.0007 }, { "month": "2025-07", - "start_equity": 100129.99, - "end_equity": 100070.84, - "pnl": -59.15, - "pnl_pct": -0.0591 + "start_equity": 100120.13, + "end_equity": 100102.3, + "pnl": -17.83, + "pnl_pct": -0.0178 }, { "month": "2025-08", - "start_equity": 100070.84, - "end_equity": 100136.88, - "pnl": 66.04, - "pnl_pct": 0.066 + "start_equity": 100102.3, + "end_equity": 100108.24, + "pnl": 5.94, + "pnl_pct": 0.0059 }, { "month": "2025-09", - "start_equity": 100136.88, - "end_equity": 100128.96, - "pnl": -7.92, - "pnl_pct": -0.0079 + "start_equity": 100108.24, + "end_equity": 100119.99, + "pnl": 11.75, + "pnl_pct": 0.0117 }, { "month": "2025-10", - "start_equity": 100128.96, - "end_equity": 100114.83, - "pnl": -14.13, - "pnl_pct": -0.0141 + "start_equity": 100119.99, + "end_equity": 100081.04, + "pnl": -38.95, + "pnl_pct": -0.0389 }, { "month": "2025-11", - "start_equity": 100114.83, - "end_equity": 100087.25, - "pnl": -27.58, - "pnl_pct": -0.0275 + "start_equity": 100081.04, + "end_equity": 100065.94, + "pnl": -15.09, + "pnl_pct": -0.0151 }, { "month": "2025-12", - "start_equity": 100087.25, - "end_equity": 100088.28, - "pnl": 1.03, - "pnl_pct": 0.001 + "start_equity": 100065.94, + "end_equity": 100074.04, + "pnl": 8.1, + "pnl_pct": 0.0081 }, { "month": "2026-01", - "start_equity": 100088.28, - "end_equity": 100092.01, - "pnl": 3.73, - "pnl_pct": 0.0037 + "start_equity": 100074.04, + "end_equity": 100101.75, + "pnl": 27.71, + "pnl_pct": 0.0277 }, { "month": "2026-02", - "start_equity": 100092.01, - "end_equity": 100065.29, - "pnl": -26.72, - "pnl_pct": -0.0267 + "start_equity": 100101.75, + "end_equity": 100077.9, + "pnl": -23.85, + "pnl_pct": -0.0238 } ] } \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/logs/backtest_trades_EUR_USD_M15.csv b/logs/backtest_trades_EUR_USD_M15.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..57e0e25 --- /dev/null +++ b/logs/backtest_trades_EUR_USD_M15.csv @@ -0,0 +1,793 @@ +time,instrument,granularity,side,price,position_size,equity,drawdown +2025-02-20 08:15:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,BUY,1.04395,2500.0,100000.0,0.0 +2025-02-21 06:45:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,FLAT,1.04887,0.0,100011.77,3.8e-05 +2025-02-21 07:00:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,BUY,1.04956,2500.29,100011.77,3.8e-05 +2025-02-21 13:45:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,FLAT,1.04752,0.0,100006.92,8.6e-05 +2025-02-24 04:15:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,BUY,1.05128,2500.17,100006.92,8.6e-05 +2025-02-24 09:15:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,FLAT,1.04747,0.0,99997.85,0.000177 +2025-02-24 09:30:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,BUY,1.04746,2499.95,99997.85,0.000177 +2025-02-24 10:15:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,FLAT,1.04701,0.0,99996.77,0.000188 +2025-02-24 10:45:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,BUY,1.04802,2499.92,99996.77,0.000188 +2025-02-24 17:00:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,FLAT,1.04756,0.0,99995.68,0.000198 +2025-02-25 11:30:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,BUY,1.04861,2499.89,99995.68,0.000198 +2025-02-25 13:30:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,FLAT,1.0508,0.0,100000.9,0.000146 +2025-02-25 13:45:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,BUY,1.05002,2500.02,100000.9,0.000146 +2025-02-26 03:15:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,FLAT,1.05032,0.0,100001.63,0.000139 +2025-02-26 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00:45:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,BUY,1.17168,2504.04,100161.7,0.000184 +2026-01-06 15:45:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,FLAT,1.16953,0.0,100157.11,0.00023 +2026-01-12 05:15:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,BUY,1.16658,2503.93,100157.11,0.00023 +2026-01-12 07:15:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,FLAT,1.16814,0.0,100160.46,0.000196 +2026-01-12 07:30:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,BUY,1.16774,2504.01,100160.46,0.000196 +2026-01-13 01:30:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,FLAT,1.16592,0.0,100156.56,0.000235 +2026-01-14 14:30:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,BUY,1.16591,2503.91,100156.56,0.000235 +2026-01-14 19:15:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,FLAT,1.16375,0.0,100151.92,0.000282 +2026-01-14 20:00:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,BUY,1.16424,2503.8,100151.92,0.000282 +2026-01-15 02:00:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,FLAT,1.16408,0.0,100151.58,0.000285 +2026-01-16 12:30:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,BUY,1.16175,2503.79,100151.58,0.000285 +2026-01-16 19:15:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,FLAT,1.15946,0.0,100146.65,0.000334 +2026-01-19 06:00:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,BUY,1.16288,2503.67,100146.65,0.000334 +2026-01-20 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23:15:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,BUY,1.17566,2504.17,100166.72,0.000134 +2026-01-23 13:30:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,FLAT,1.17418,0.0,100163.57,0.000165 +2026-01-23 13:45:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,BUY,1.17341,2504.09,100163.57,0.000165 +2026-01-23 14:00:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,FLAT,1.1739,0.0,100164.61,0.000155 +2026-01-23 18:45:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,BUY,1.17922,2504.12,100164.61,0.000155 +2026-01-23 21:30:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,FLAT,1.18263,0.0,100171.85,8.3e-05 +2026-01-25 23:15:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,BUY,1.18649,2504.3,100171.85,8.3e-05 +2026-01-26 13:00:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,FLAT,1.18396,0.0,100166.52,0.000136 +2026-01-26 13:15:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,BUY,1.18467,2504.16,100166.52,0.000136 +2026-01-26 15:45:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,FLAT,1.18954,0.0,100176.8,3.3e-05 +2026-01-26 16:00:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,BUY,1.18902,2504.42,100176.8,3.3e-05 +2026-01-27 12:00:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,FLAT,1.19066,0.0,100180.27,0.0 +2026-01-27 13:15:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,BUY,1.1923,2504.51,100180.27,0.0 +2026-01-27 13:30:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,FLAT,1.19309,0.0,100181.92,0.0 +2026-01-27 13:45:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,BUY,1.19234,2504.55,100181.92,0.0 +2026-01-27 14:30:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,FLAT,1.19448,0.0,100186.42,0.0 +2026-01-27 15:30:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,BUY,1.19508,2504.66,100186.42,0.0 +2026-01-27 20:45:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,FLAT,1.20295,0.0,100202.89,0.0 +2026-01-27 22:00:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,BUY,1.20373,2505.07,100202.89,0.0 +2026-01-27 22:45:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,FLAT,1.20428,0.0,100204.03,0.0 +2026-01-27 23:00:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,BUY,1.20304,2505.1,100204.03,0.0 +2026-01-28 01:00:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,FLAT,1.2009,0.0,100199.57,4.4e-05 +2026-01-28 01:15:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,BUY,1.20036,2504.99,100199.57,4.4e-05 +2026-01-28 01:45:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,FLAT,1.19929,0.0,100197.34,6.7e-05 +2026-01-28 02:30:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,BUY,1.19952,2504.93,100197.34,6.7e-05 +2026-01-28 14:00:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,FLAT,1.19639,0.0,100190.82,0.000132 +2026-01-29 07:30:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,BUY,1.19716,2504.77,100190.82,0.000132 +2026-01-29 11:30:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,FLAT,1.19486,0.0,100186.01,0.00018 +2026-01-29 11:45:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,BUY,1.1947,2504.65,100186.01,0.00018 +2026-01-29 18:15:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,FLAT,1.19518,0.0,100187.04,0.00017 +2026-02-03 12:15:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,BUY,1.17916,2504.68,100187.04,0.00017 +2026-02-03 20:45:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,FLAT,1.18212,0.0,100193.33,0.000107 +2026-02-03 22:30:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,BUY,1.18204,2504.83,100193.33,0.000107 +2026-02-04 11:15:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,FLAT,1.18085,0.0,100190.81,0.000132 +2026-02-04 11:30:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,BUY,1.18131,2504.77,100190.81,0.000132 +2026-02-04 17:00:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,FLAT,1.18108,0.0,100190.33,0.000137 +2026-02-06 13:00:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,BUY,1.17938,2504.76,100190.33,0.000137 +2026-02-06 14:15:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,FLAT,1.18126,0.0,100194.32,9.7e-05 +2026-02-06 15:00:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,BUY,1.1814,2504.86,100194.32,9.7e-05 +2026-02-09 06:15:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,FLAT,1.18479,0.0,100201.5,2.5e-05 +2026-02-09 07:45:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,BUY,1.18559,2505.04,100201.5,2.5e-05 +2026-02-09 13:15:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,FLAT,1.1896,0.0,100209.96,0.0 +2026-02-09 13:30:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,BUY,1.18932,2505.25,100209.96,0.0 +2026-02-09 13:45:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,FLAT,1.19037,0.0,100212.18,0.0 +2026-02-09 15:15:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,BUY,1.19099,2505.3,100212.18,0.0 +2026-02-09 19:45:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,FLAT,1.19204,0.0,100214.39,0.0 +2026-02-09 20:00:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,BUY,1.19184,2505.36,100214.39,0.0 +2026-02-10 00:00:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,FLAT,1.19025,0.0,100211.04,3.5e-05 +2026-02-10 00:15:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,BUY,1.19036,2505.28,100211.04,3.5e-05 +2026-02-10 01:15:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,FLAT,1.18976,0.0,100209.78,4.7e-05 +2026-02-10 01:30:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,BUY,1.19059,2505.24,100209.78,4.7e-05 +2026-02-10 12:45:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,FLAT,1.1893,0.0,100207.07,7.4e-05 +2026-02-11 08:45:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,BUY,1.19184,2505.18,100207.07,7.4e-05 +2026-02-11 13:30:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,FLAT,1.18666,0.0,100196.17,0.000183 +2026-02-11 15:00:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,BUY,1.18644,2504.9,100196.17,0.000183 +2026-02-11 17:30:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,FLAT,1.18878,0.0,100201.11,0.000134 +2026-02-12 14:00:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,BUY,1.18779,2505.03,100201.11,0.000134 +2026-02-12 15:15:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,FLAT,1.18849,0.0,100202.58,0.000119 +2026-02-12 18:00:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,BUY,1.18622,2505.06,100202.58,0.000119 +2026-02-12 22:45:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,FLAT,1.18722,0.0,100204.7,9.8e-05 +2026-02-13 20:45:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,BUY,1.18745,2505.12,100204.7,9.8e-05 +2026-02-16 09:30:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M15,FLAT,1.18646,0.0,100202.61,0.000119 diff --git a/logs/backtest_trades_EUR_USD_M5.csv b/logs/backtest_trades_EUR_USD_M5.csv index ff05c8b..25de632 100644 --- a/logs/backtest_trades_EUR_USD_M5.csv +++ b/logs/backtest_trades_EUR_USD_M5.csv @@ -1,15 +1,2399 @@ time,instrument,granularity,side,price,position_size,equity,drawdown -2026-02-13 16:20:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.18684,100.0,10000.0,0.0 -2026-02-13 18:15:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.18742,0.0,10000.05,7e-06 -2026-02-13 18:30:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.1878,100.0,10000.05,7e-06 -2026-02-13 19:00:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.18712,0.0,9999.99,1.2e-05 -2026-02-13 20:50:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.18708,100.0,9999.99,1.2e-05 -2026-02-13 21:40:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.18682,0.0,9999.97,1.5e-05 -2026-02-15 22:10:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.18719,100.0,9999.97,1.5e-05 -2026-02-15 22:55:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.18708,0.0,9999.96,1.6e-05 -2026-02-16 01:20:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.18645,100.0,9999.96,1.6e-05 -2026-02-16 01:40:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.1864,0.0,9999.96,1.6e-05 -2026-02-16 01:55:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.18654,100.0,9999.96,1.6e-05 -2026-02-16 02:15:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.18625,0.0,9999.93,1.8e-05 -2026-02-16 02:30:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.18654,100.0,9999.93,1.8e-05 -2026-02-16 04:20:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.18663,0.0,9999.94,1.8e-05 +2025-02-17 17:45:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.04814,2500.0,100000.0,0.0 +2025-02-18 00:55:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.04752,0.0,99998.52,2.5e-05 +2025-02-18 10:25:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.04605,2499.96,99998.52,2.5e-05 +2025-02-18 13:20:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.04513,0.0,99996.32,4.7e-05 +2025-02-19 00:30:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.04477,2499.91,99996.32,4.7e-05 +2025-02-19 06:10:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.04598,0.0,99999.22,1.8e-05 +2025-02-19 06:15:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.0459,2499.98,99999.22,1.8e-05 +2025-02-19 06:25:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.04608,0.0,99999.65,1.4e-05 +2025-02-19 06:35:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.04582,2499.99,99999.65,1.4e-05 +2025-02-19 09:40:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.04348,0.0,99994.05,7e-05 +2025-02-19 09:45:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.04368,2499.85,99994.05,7e-05 +2025-02-19 10:00:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.04268,0.0,99991.66,9.4e-05 +2025-02-19 22:00:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.04248,2499.79,99991.66,9.4e-05 +2025-02-20 08:05:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.04392,0.0,99995.11,5.9e-05 +2025-02-20 08:15:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.04382,2499.88,99995.11,5.9e-05 +2025-02-20 13:35:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.04527,0.0,99998.58,2.5e-05 +2025-02-20 13:40:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.04478,2499.96,99998.58,2.5e-05 +2025-02-20 17:30:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.04867,0.0,100007.88,4e-06 +2025-02-20 17:45:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.04898,2500.2,100007.88,4e-06 +2025-02-20 23:10:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.05045,0.0,100011.39,0.0 +2025-02-20 23:15:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.05032,2500.28,100011.39,0.0 +2025-02-21 00:30:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.04933,0.0,100009.03,2.6e-05 +2025-02-21 00:45:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.04912,2500.23,100009.03,2.6e-05 +2025-02-21 00:50:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.04895,0.0,100008.62,3e-05 +2025-02-21 01:10:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.04904,2500.22,100008.62,3e-05 +2025-02-21 01:50:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.04882,0.0,100008.1,3.5e-05 +2025-02-21 05:30:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.04964,2500.2,100008.1,3.5e-05 +2025-02-21 05:40:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.04945,0.0,100007.65,4e-05 +2025-02-21 05:55:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.0493,2500.19,100007.65,4e-05 +2025-02-21 06:00:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.0492,0.0,100007.41,4.2e-05 +2025-02-21 06:10:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.04932,2500.19,100007.41,4.2e-05 +2025-02-21 06:25:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.04902,0.0,100006.69,4.9e-05 +2025-02-21 06:30:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.04922,2500.17,100006.69,4.9e-05 +2025-02-21 08:15:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.04747,0.0,100002.52,9.1e-05 +2025-02-23 22:35:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.04712,2500.06,100002.52,9.1e-05 +2025-02-23 23:25:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.048,0.0,100004.62,7e-05 +2025-02-23 23:45:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.04778,2500.12,100004.62,7e-05 +2025-02-24 00:55:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.05044,0.0,100010.97,7e-06 +2025-02-24 01:25:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.05081,2500.27,100010.97,7e-06 +2025-02-24 01:40:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.05168,0.0,100013.04,0.0 +2025-02-24 02:10:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.05197,2500.33,100013.04,0.0 +2025-02-24 02:30:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.05221,0.0,100013.61,0.0 +2025-02-24 02:45:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.05248,2500.34,100013.61,0.0 +2025-02-24 08:05:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.04856,0.0,100004.28,0.0001 +2025-02-24 18:20:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.04841,2500.11,100004.28,0.0001 +2025-02-24 22:40:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.04685,0.0,100000.56,0.000137 +2025-02-24 22:45:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.04678,2500.01,100000.56,0.000137 +2025-02-24 22:55:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.04693,0.0,100000.92,0.000133 +2025-02-25 04:10:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.04752,2500.02,100000.92,0.000133 +2025-02-25 06:20:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.04792,0.0,100001.88,0.000124 +2025-02-25 06:25:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.04784,2500.05,100001.88,0.000124 +2025-02-25 09:55:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.04732,0.0,100000.64,0.000136 +2025-02-25 12:25:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.04964,2500.02,100000.64,0.000136 +2025-02-25 18:15:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.05046,0.0,100002.6,0.000116 +2025-02-25 18:25:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.05037,2500.07,100002.6,0.000116 +2025-02-25 18:40:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.05148,0.0,100005.24,9e-05 +2025-02-25 18:45:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.05117,2500.13,100005.24,9e-05 +2025-02-25 20:25:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.05166,0.0,100006.41,7.8e-05 +2025-02-25 20:30:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.05128,2500.16,100006.41,7.8e-05 +2025-02-25 23:20:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.05202,0.0,100008.17,6.1e-05 +2025-02-25 23:50:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.052,2500.2,100008.17,6.1e-05 +2025-02-26 00:00:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.05218,0.0,100008.6,5.7e-05 +2025-02-26 00:15:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.0524,2500.21,100008.6,5.7e-05 +2025-02-26 02:15:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.05125,0.0,100005.86,8.4e-05 +2025-02-26 02:45:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.05074,2500.15,100005.86,8.4e-05 +2025-02-26 02:50:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.0505,0.0,100005.29,9e-05 +2025-02-26 02:55:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.05065,2500.13,100005.29,9e-05 +2025-02-26 03:50:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.0504,0.0,100004.7,9.6e-05 +2025-02-26 11:05:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.04984,2500.12,100004.7,9.6e-05 +2025-02-26 12:35:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.04916,0.0,100003.08,0.000112 +2025-02-26 17:05:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.05174,2500.08,100003.08,0.000112 +2025-02-26 17:25:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.05232,0.0,100004.46,9.8e-05 +2025-02-26 17:30:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.05,2500.11,100004.46,9.8e-05 +2025-02-26 21:05:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.04854,0.0,100000.98,0.000133 +2025-02-27 09:20:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.04782,2500.02,100000.98,0.000133 +2025-02-27 13:45:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.04461,0.0,99993.32,0.000209 +2025-02-27 14:00:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.04334,2499.83,99993.32,0.000209 +2025-02-27 14:05:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.04332,0.0,99993.27,0.00021 +2025-02-28 08:50:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.03998,2499.83,99993.27,0.00021 +2025-02-28 10:15:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.0393,0.0,99991.64,0.000226 +2025-02-28 10:20:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.03941,2499.79,99991.64,0.000226 +2025-02-28 12:40:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.04058,0.0,99994.45,0.000198 +2025-02-28 12:45:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.04046,2499.86,99994.45,0.000198 +2025-02-28 13:00:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.04102,0.0,99995.8,0.000184 +2025-02-28 13:20:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.04135,2499.89,99995.8,0.000184 +2025-02-28 18:20:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.0366,0.0,99984.38,0.000299 +2025-02-28 18:25:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.03727,2499.61,99984.38,0.000299 +2025-02-28 18:30:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.03785,0.0,99985.78,0.000285 +2025-03-03 00:05:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.04108,2499.64,99985.78,0.000285 +2025-03-03 07:00:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.04074,0.0,99984.97,0.000293 +2025-03-03 11:05:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.04461,2499.62,99984.97,0.000293 +2025-03-03 21:25:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.04904,0.0,99995.56,0.000187 +2025-03-04 01:10:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.04874,2499.89,99995.56,0.000187 +2025-03-04 03:35:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.04772,0.0,99993.13,0.000211 +2025-03-04 08:10:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.04935,2499.83,99993.13,0.000211 +2025-03-04 09:05:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.0521,0.0,99999.67,0.000146 +2025-03-04 09:10:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.05154,2499.99,99999.67,0.000146 +2025-03-04 12:25:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.05494,0.0,100007.75,6.5e-05 +2025-03-04 12:35:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.05448,2500.19,100007.75,6.5e-05 +2025-03-04 15:15:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.05059,0.0,99998.52,0.000157 +2025-03-04 15:20:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.05089,2499.96,99998.52,0.000157 +2025-03-04 17:45:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,FLAT,1.05403,0.0,100005.98,8.3e-05 +2025-03-04 19:10:00+00:00,EUR_USD,M5,BUY,1.05878,2500.15,100005.98,8.3e-05 +2025-03-04 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"sma_long": 200, + "trade_size_pct": 0.05, + "rsi_overbought": 70, + "rsi_oversold": 30, + "starting_equity": 100000.0, + "final_equity": 100034.66, + "total_return_pct": 0.0347, + "max_drawdown_pct": 0.2459, + "num_trades": 4854, + "round_trips": 2427, + "win_rate_pct": 50.06, + "sharpe_ratio": 0.1388, + "stopped_out": false, + "instrument": "EUR_USD", + "granularity": "M5", + "rsi_label": "RSI 70/30" + }, + { + "sma_short": 10, + "sma_long": 30, + "trade_size_pct": 0.01, + "rsi_overbought": null, + "rsi_oversold": null, + "starting_equity": 100000.0, + "final_equity": 99996.91, + "total_return_pct": -0.0031, + "max_drawdown_pct": 0.0517, + "num_trades": 998, + "round_trips": 499, + "win_rate_pct": 34.27, + "sharpe_ratio": -0.095, + "stopped_out": false, + "instrument": "EUR_USD", + "granularity": "M15", + "rsi_label": "No RSI filter" + }, + { + "sma_short": 10, + "sma_long": 30, + "trade_size_pct": 0.025, + "rsi_overbought": null, + "rsi_oversold": null, + "starting_equity": 100000.0, + "final_equity": 99992.21, + "total_return_pct": -0.0078, + "max_drawdown_pct": 0.1291, + "num_trades": 998, + "round_trips": 499, + "win_rate_pct": 34.27, + "sharpe_ratio": -0.0951, + "stopped_out": false, + "instrument": "EUR_USD", + "granularity": "M15", + "rsi_label": "No RSI filter" + }, + { + "sma_short": 10, + "sma_long": 30, + "trade_size_pct": 0.05, + "rsi_overbought": null, + "rsi_oversold": null, + "starting_equity": 100000.0, + "final_equity": 99984.21, + "total_return_pct": -0.0158, + "max_drawdown_pct": 0.258, + "num_trades": 998, + "round_trips": 499, + "win_rate_pct": 34.27, + "sharpe_ratio": -0.0952, + "stopped_out": false, + "instrument": "EUR_USD", + "granularity": "M15", + "rsi_label": "No RSI filter" + }, + { + "sma_short": 10, + "sma_long": 30, + "trade_size_pct": 0.1, + "rsi_overbought": null, + "rsi_oversold": null, + "starting_equity": 100000.0, + "final_equity": 99967.57, + "total_return_pct": -0.0324, + "max_drawdown_pct": 0.5155, + "num_trades": 998, + "round_trips": 499, + "win_rate_pct": 34.27, + "sharpe_ratio": -0.0955, + "stopped_out": false, + "instrument": "EUR_USD", + "granularity": "M15", + "rsi_label": "No RSI filter" + }, + { + "sma_short": 10, + "sma_long": 50, + "trade_size_pct": 0.1, + "rsi_overbought": 70, + "rsi_oversold": 30, + "starting_equity": 100000.0, + "final_equity": 99960.94, + "total_return_pct": -0.0391, + "max_drawdown_pct": 0.4958, + "num_trades": 2086, + "round_trips": 1043, + "win_rate_pct": 53.12, + "sharpe_ratio": -0.1391, + "stopped_out": false, + "instrument": "EUR_USD", + "granularity": "M15", + "rsi_label": "RSI 70/30" + }, + { + "sma_short": 10, + "sma_long": 50, + "trade_size_pct": 0.01, + "rsi_overbought": 70, + "rsi_oversold": 30, + "starting_equity": 100000.0, + "final_equity": 99996.19, + "total_return_pct": -0.0038, + "max_drawdown_pct": 0.0497, + "num_trades": 2086, + "round_trips": 1043, + "win_rate_pct": 53.12, + "sharpe_ratio": -0.1392, + "stopped_out": false, + "instrument": "EUR_USD", + "granularity": "M15", + "rsi_label": "RSI 70/30" + }, + { + "sma_short": 10, + "sma_long": 50, + "trade_size_pct": 0.025, + "rsi_overbought": 70, + "rsi_oversold": 30, + "starting_equity": 100000.0, + "final_equity": 99990.43, + "total_return_pct": -0.0096, + "max_drawdown_pct": 0.1241, + "num_trades": 2086, + "round_trips": 1043, + "win_rate_pct": 53.12, + "sharpe_ratio": -0.1392, + "stopped_out": false, + "instrument": "EUR_USD", + "granularity": "M15", + "rsi_label": "RSI 70/30" + }, + { + "sma_short": 10, + "sma_long": 50, + "trade_size_pct": 0.05, + "rsi_overbought": 70, + "rsi_oversold": 30, + "starting_equity": 100000.0, + "final_equity": 99980.73, + "total_return_pct": -0.0193, + "max_drawdown_pct": 0.2481, + "num_trades": 2086, + "round_trips": 1043, + "win_rate_pct": 53.12, + "sharpe_ratio": -0.1392, + "stopped_out": false, + "instrument": "EUR_USD", + "granularity": "M15", + "rsi_label": "RSI 70/30" + }, + { + "sma_short": 20, + "sma_long": 50, + "trade_size_pct": 0.01, + "rsi_overbought": 70, + "rsi_oversold": 30, + "starting_equity": 100000.0, + "final_equity": 99988.57, + "total_return_pct": -0.0114, + "max_drawdown_pct": 0.0496, + "num_trades": 1972, + "round_trips": 986, + "win_rate_pct": 52.33, + "sharpe_ratio": -0.4132, + "stopped_out": false, + "instrument": "EUR_USD", + "granularity": "M15", + "rsi_label": "RSI 70/30" + }, + { + "sma_short": 20, + "sma_long": 50, + "trade_size_pct": 0.025, + "rsi_overbought": 70, + "rsi_oversold": 30, + "starting_equity": 100000.0, + "final_equity": 99971.39, + "total_return_pct": -0.0286, + "max_drawdown_pct": 0.124, + "num_trades": 1972, + "round_trips": 986, + "win_rate_pct": 52.33, + "sharpe_ratio": -0.4132, + "stopped_out": false, + "instrument": "EUR_USD", + "granularity": "M15", + "rsi_label": "RSI 70/30" + }, + { + "sma_short": 20, + "sma_long": 50, + "trade_size_pct": 0.05, + "rsi_overbought": 70, + "rsi_oversold": 30, + "starting_equity": 100000.0, + "final_equity": 99942.66, + "total_return_pct": -0.0573, + "max_drawdown_pct": 0.248, + "num_trades": 1972, + "round_trips": 986, + "win_rate_pct": 52.33, + "sharpe_ratio": -0.4132, + "stopped_out": false, + "instrument": "EUR_USD", + "granularity": "M15", + "rsi_label": "RSI 70/30" + }, + { + "sma_short": 20, + "sma_long": 50, + "trade_size_pct": 0.1, + "rsi_overbought": 70, + "rsi_oversold": 30, + "starting_equity": 100000.0, + "final_equity": 99884.79, + "total_return_pct": -0.1152, + "max_drawdown_pct": 0.4957, + "num_trades": 1972, + "round_trips": 986, + "win_rate_pct": 52.33, + "sharpe_ratio": -0.4132, + "stopped_out": false, + "instrument": "EUR_USD", + "granularity": "M15", + "rsi_label": "RSI 70/30" + }, + { + "sma_short": 10, + "sma_long": 30, + "trade_size_pct": 0.1, + "rsi_overbought": 70, + "rsi_oversold": 30, + "starting_equity": 100000.0, + "final_equity": 99858.33, + "total_return_pct": -0.1417, + "max_drawdown_pct": 0.4462, + "num_trades": 2366, + "round_trips": 1183, + "win_rate_pct": 53.51, + "sharpe_ratio": -0.5238, + "stopped_out": false, + "instrument": "EUR_USD", + "granularity": "M15", + "rsi_label": "RSI 70/30" + }, + { + "sma_short": 10, + "sma_long": 30, + "trade_size_pct": 0.01, + "rsi_overbought": 70, + "rsi_oversold": 30, + "starting_equity": 100000.0, + "final_equity": 99985.92, + "total_return_pct": -0.0141, + "max_drawdown_pct": 0.0447, + "num_trades": 2366, + "round_trips": 1183, + "win_rate_pct": 53.51, + "sharpe_ratio": -0.5239, + "stopped_out": false, + "instrument": "EUR_USD", + "granularity": "M15", + "rsi_label": "RSI 70/30" + }, + { + "sma_short": 10, + "sma_long": 30, + "trade_size_pct": 0.025, + "rsi_overbought": 70, + "rsi_oversold": 30, + "starting_equity": 100000.0, + "final_equity": 99964.76, + "total_return_pct": -0.0352, + "max_drawdown_pct": 0.1117, + "num_trades": 2366, + "round_trips": 1183, + "win_rate_pct": 53.51, + "sharpe_ratio": -0.5239, + "stopped_out": false, + "instrument": "EUR_USD", + "granularity": "M15", + "rsi_label": "RSI 70/30" + }, + { + "sma_short": 10, + "sma_long": 30, + "trade_size_pct": 0.05, + "rsi_overbought": 70, + "rsi_oversold": 30, + "starting_equity": 100000.0, + "final_equity": 99929.4, + "total_return_pct": -0.0706, + "max_drawdown_pct": 0.2233, + "num_trades": 2366, + "round_trips": 1183, + "win_rate_pct": 53.51, + "sharpe_ratio": -0.5239, + "stopped_out": false, + "instrument": "EUR_USD", + "granularity": "M15", + "rsi_label": "RSI 70/30" + }, + { + "sma_short": 21, + "sma_long": 50, + "trade_size_pct": 0.05, + "rsi_overbought": 70, + "rsi_oversold": 30, + "starting_equity": 100000.0, + "final_equity": 99911.3, + "total_return_pct": -0.0887, + "max_drawdown_pct": 0.301, + "num_trades": 1974, + "round_trips": 987, + "win_rate_pct": 51.87, + "sharpe_ratio": -0.6368, + "stopped_out": false, + "instrument": "EUR_USD", + "granularity": "M15", + "rsi_label": "RSI 70/30" + }, + { + "sma_short": 21, + "sma_long": 50, + "trade_size_pct": 0.1, + "rsi_overbought": 70, + "rsi_oversold": 30, + "starting_equity": 100000.0, + "final_equity": 99822.14, + "total_return_pct": -0.1779, + "max_drawdown_pct": 0.6015, + "num_trades": 1974, + "round_trips": 987, + "win_rate_pct": 51.87, + "sharpe_ratio": -0.6368, + "stopped_out": false, + "instrument": "EUR_USD", + "granularity": "M15", + "rsi_label": "RSI 70/30" + }, + { + "sma_short": 21, + "sma_long": 50, + "trade_size_pct": 0.01, + "rsi_overbought": 70, + "rsi_oversold": 30, + "starting_equity": 100000.0, + "final_equity": 99982.3, + "total_return_pct": -0.0177, + "max_drawdown_pct": 0.0602, + "num_trades": 1974, + "round_trips": 987, + "win_rate_pct": 51.87, + "sharpe_ratio": -0.6369, + "stopped_out": false, + "instrument": "EUR_USD", + "granularity": "M15", + "rsi_label": "RSI 70/30" + }, + { + "sma_short": 21, + "sma_long": 50, + "trade_size_pct": 0.025, + "rsi_overbought": 70, + "rsi_oversold": 30, + "starting_equity": 100000.0, + "final_equity": 99955.71, + "total_return_pct": -0.0443, + "max_drawdown_pct": 0.1506, + "num_trades": 1974, + "round_trips": 987, + "win_rate_pct": 51.87, + "sharpe_ratio": -0.6369, + "stopped_out": false, + "instrument": "EUR_USD", + "granularity": "M15", + "rsi_label": "RSI 70/30" + }, + { + "sma_short": 15, + "sma_long": 50, + "trade_size_pct": 0.01, + "rsi_overbought": 70, + "rsi_oversold": 30, + "starting_equity": 100000.0, + "final_equity": 99981.69, + "total_return_pct": -0.0183, + "max_drawdown_pct": 0.061, + "num_trades": 1934, + "round_trips": 967, + "win_rate_pct": 52.22, + "sharpe_ratio": -0.6651, + "stopped_out": false, + "instrument": "EUR_USD", + "granularity": "M15", + "rsi_label": "RSI 70/30" + }, + { + "sma_short": 15, + "sma_long": 50, + "trade_size_pct": 0.025, + "rsi_overbought": 70, + "rsi_oversold": 30, + "starting_equity": 100000.0, + "final_equity": 99954.19, + "total_return_pct": -0.0458, + "max_drawdown_pct": 0.1525, + "num_trades": 1934, + "round_trips": 967, + "win_rate_pct": 52.22, + "sharpe_ratio": -0.6651, + "stopped_out": false, + "instrument": "EUR_USD", + "granularity": "M15", + "rsi_label": "RSI 70/30" + }, + { + "sma_short": 15, + "sma_long": 50, + "trade_size_pct": 0.05, + "rsi_overbought": 70, + "rsi_oversold": 30, + "starting_equity": 100000.0, + "final_equity": 99908.25, + "total_return_pct": -0.0917, + "max_drawdown_pct": 0.3048, + "num_trades": 1934, + "round_trips": 967, + "win_rate_pct": 52.22, + "sharpe_ratio": -0.6651, + "stopped_out": false, + "instrument": "EUR_USD", + "granularity": "M15", + "rsi_label": "RSI 70/30" + }, + { + "sma_short": 15, + "sma_long": 50, + "trade_size_pct": 0.1, + "rsi_overbought": 70, + "rsi_oversold": 30, + "starting_equity": 100000.0, + "final_equity": 99816.04, + "total_return_pct": -0.184, + "max_drawdown_pct": 0.6089, + "num_trades": 1934, + "round_trips": 967, + "win_rate_pct": 52.22, + "sharpe_ratio": -0.6651, + "stopped_out": false, + "instrument": "EUR_USD", + "granularity": "M15", + "rsi_label": "RSI 70/30" + } +] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/src/backtester.py b/src/backtester.py index a3eb407..d600032 100644 --- a/src/backtester.py +++ b/src/backtester.py @@ -70,7 +70,7 @@ def fetch_candles_from_supabase(instrument, granularity, supabase_client, table) # Signal generation # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- -def generate_signals(df, strategy_cfg): +def generate_signals(df, strategy_cfg, ai_cfg=None): """ Generate trading signals based on strategy config. Currently supports 'sma_cross' rule only. @@ -78,7 +78,9 @@ def generate_signals(df, strategy_cfg): Signal logic (long-only / flat): sma_short > sma_long → signal = 1 (long) sma_short < sma_long → signal = 0 (flat) - Position changes only when signal changes. + + If ai_cfg is provided, applies RSI overbought/oversold filtering + to block entries at extreme levels. """ rule = strategy_cfg["rule"] if rule != "sma_cross": @@ -100,6 +102,26 @@ def generate_signals(df, strategy_cfg): # Signal: 1 when short SMA above long SMA, else 0 df["signal"] = np.where(df[sma_short_col] > df[sma_long_col], 1, 0) + # Apply RSI filter if configured + if ai_cfg: + sanity = ai_cfg.get("sanity_checks", {}) + rsi_ob = sanity.get("rsi_overbought") + rsi_os = sanity.get("rsi_oversold") + + # Find the RSI column + rsi_col = None + for col in df.columns: + if col.startswith("rsi_"): + rsi_col = col + break + + if rsi_col and (rsi_ob or rsi_os): + rsi_vals = df[rsi_col] + if rsi_ob is not None: + df.loc[(df["signal"] == 1) & (rsi_vals > rsi_ob), "signal"] = 0 + if rsi_os is not None: + df.loc[(df["signal"] == 1) & (rsi_vals < rsi_os), "signal"] = 0 + # Position changes only on crossover (detect changes) df["position"] = df["signal"] @@ -372,10 +394,14 @@ def main(): table = cfg.get("supabase", {}).get("table", "fx_candles") strategy_cfg = cfg["strategy"] + ai_cfg = cfg.get("ai", {}) instruments = cfg["brokers"][0]["instruments"] granularities = cfg["data"]["candle_granularities"] + rsi_ob = ai_cfg.get("sanity_checks", {}).get("rsi_overbought", "off") + rsi_os = ai_cfg.get("sanity_checks", {}).get("rsi_oversold", "off") print(f"Backtesting strategy: {strategy_cfg['rule']}") + print(f"RSI filter: overbought={rsi_ob}, oversold={rsi_os}") print(f"Instruments: {instruments}") print(f"Granularities: {granularities}\n") @@ -388,7 +414,7 @@ def main(): print(" Skipping — no data.\n") continue - df = generate_signals(df, strategy_cfg) + df = generate_signals(df, strategy_cfg, ai_cfg=ai_cfg) if df.empty: print(" Skipping — no valid rows after warmup.\n") continue diff --git a/src/param_sweep.py b/src/param_sweep.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6126765 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/param_sweep.py @@ -0,0 +1,308 @@ +# src/param_sweep.py +""" +Parameter sweep for fx-quant strategy optimization. +Tests combinations of SMA periods, trade sizes, and confidence thresholds +against historical data and ranks by Sharpe ratio. + +Usage: + python src/param_sweep.py +""" + +import os +import json +import math +import itertools +from pathlib import Path + +import pandas as pd +import numpy as np +from supabase import create_client + +from config_loader import load_config, get_project_root + + +cfg = load_config() + + +# --------------------------------------------------------------------------- +# Data fetching (reuse from backtester) +# --------------------------------------------------------------------------- + +def fetch_data(instrument, granularity, sb, table): + """Fetch all candles from Supabase for one instrument/granularity.""" + print(f" Fetching {instrument} / {granularity}...") + all_rows = [] + page_size = 1000 + offset = 0 + while True: + resp = ( + sb.table(table) + .select("*") + .eq("instrument", instrument) + .eq("granularity", granularity) + .order("time", desc=False) + .range(offset, offset + page_size - 1) + .execute() + ) + rows = resp.data or [] + all_rows.extend(rows) + if len(rows) < page_size: + break + offset += page_size + + if not all_rows: + return pd.DataFrame() + + df = pd.DataFrame(all_rows) + df["time"] = pd.to_datetime(df["time"]) + df = df.set_index("time").sort_index() + numeric_cols = [c for c in df.columns if c not in ("instrument", "granularity")] + for col in numeric_cols: + df[col] = pd.to_numeric(df[col], errors="coerce") + + print(f" Got {len(df)} rows.") + return df + + +# --------------------------------------------------------------------------- +# Fast backtest (no file I/O, just returns metrics) +# --------------------------------------------------------------------------- + +def fast_backtest(df, sma_short, sma_long, trade_size_pct, max_dd_pct=0.05, + starting_equity=100_000.0, rsi_period=14, + rsi_overbought=None, rsi_oversold=None): + """ + Run a quick backtest with given SMA params on raw close data. + Computes SMAs on-the-fly so we're not limited to pre-computed columns. + Optionally filters entries using RSI overbought/oversold thresholds. + Returns metrics dict or None if not enough data. + """ + # Compute SMAs from close price + df = df.copy() + df["sma_s"] = df["close"].rolling(sma_short).mean() + df["sma_l"] = df["close"].rolling(sma_long).mean() + + if "ret" not in df.columns: + df["ret"] = df["close"].pct_change() + + # Compute RSI if filtering is enabled + rsi_values = None + if rsi_overbought is not None or rsi_oversold is not None: + delta = df["close"].diff() + up = delta.clip(lower=0) + down = -1 * delta.clip(upper=0) + ma_up = up.rolling(rsi_period).mean() + ma_down = down.rolling(rsi_period).mean() + rs = ma_up / (ma_down.replace(0, np.nan)) + df["_rsi"] = 100 - (100 / (1 + rs)) + + df = df.dropna(subset=["sma_s", "sma_l", "ret"]) + if len(df) < 100: + return None + + # Generate signals + signals = np.where(df["sma_s"].values > df["sma_l"].values, 1, 0) + + # Apply RSI filter: block BUY when RSI is overbought, block when oversold + if rsi_overbought is not None or rsi_oversold is not None: + rsi_vals = df["_rsi"].values + for i in range(len(signals)): + if signals[i] == 1 and not np.isnan(rsi_vals[i]): + if rsi_overbought is not None and rsi_vals[i] > rsi_overbought: + signals[i] = 0 # Block buy — overbought + if rsi_oversold is not None and rsi_vals[i] < rsi_oversold: + signals[i] = 0 # Block buy — oversold + + closes = df["close"].values + rets = df["ret"].values + + equity = starting_equity + peak_equity = equity + position = 0 + position_size = 0.0 + stopped = False + + equity_curve = [] + wins = 0 + losses = 0 + buy_equity = None + num_trades = 0 + + for i in range(len(df)): + sig = signals[i] + + if stopped: + equity_curve.append(equity) + continue + + # P&L from existing position + if position == 1 and i > 0: + equity += position_size * rets[i] + + # Drawdown check + if equity > peak_equity: + peak_equity = equity + dd = (peak_equity - equity) / peak_equity if peak_equity > 0 else 0.0 + + if dd >= max_dd_pct: + stopped = True + if position == 1: + if equity > buy_equity: + wins += 1 + else: + losses += 1 + position = 0 + position_size = 0.0 + equity_curve.append(equity) + continue + + # Position changes + if sig != position: + if sig == 1 and position == 0: + position_size = equity * trade_size_pct + buy_equity = equity + num_trades += 1 + elif sig == 0 and position == 1: + num_trades += 1 + if equity > buy_equity: + wins += 1 + else: + losses += 1 + position_size = 0.0 + position = sig + + equity_curve.append(equity) + + # Metrics + final_equity = equity_curve[-1] if equity_curve else starting_equity + total_return_pct = ((final_equity - starting_equity) / starting_equity) * 100 + + eq_series = pd.Series(equity_curve, index=df.index) + peak = eq_series.cummax() + dd_series = (peak - eq_series) / peak + max_drawdown_pct = dd_series.max() * 100 + + round_trips = wins + losses + win_rate = (wins / round_trips * 100) if round_trips > 0 else 0.0 + + eq_returns = eq_series.pct_change().dropna() + sharpe = 0.0 + if len(eq_returns) > 1 and eq_returns.std() > 0: + # Annualize based on bars per year (approximate) + sharpe = (eq_returns.mean() / eq_returns.std()) * math.sqrt(252 * 24 * 12) + + return { + "sma_short": sma_short, + "sma_long": sma_long, + "trade_size_pct": trade_size_pct, + "rsi_overbought": rsi_overbought, + "rsi_oversold": rsi_oversold, + "starting_equity": starting_equity, + "final_equity": round(final_equity, 2), + "total_return_pct": round(total_return_pct, 4), + "max_drawdown_pct": round(max_drawdown_pct, 4), + "num_trades": num_trades, + "round_trips": round_trips, + "win_rate_pct": round(win_rate, 2), + "sharpe_ratio": round(sharpe, 4), + "stopped_out": stopped, + } + + +def main(): + # Supabase client + supabase_url = os.getenv("SUPABASE_URL") + supabase_key = os.getenv("SUPABASE_KEY") + sb = create_client(supabase_url, supabase_key) + table = cfg.get("supabase", {}).get("table", "fx_candles") + + instruments = cfg["brokers"][0]["instruments"] + granularities = cfg["data"]["candle_granularities"] + + # Parameter grid + sma_combos = [ + (5, 20), (10, 30), (10, 50), (15, 50), (20, 50), + (21, 50), (10, 100), (20, 100), (50, 100), (50, 200), + ] + trade_sizes = [0.01, 0.025, 0.05, 0.10] + rsi_filters = [ + (None, None, "No RSI filter"), + (70, 30, "RSI 70/30"), + (75, 25, "RSI 75/25"), + (80, 20, "RSI 80/20"), + ] + max_dd = 0.05 + + all_results = [] + + for instrument in instruments: + for granularity in granularities: + print(f"\n{'='*60}") + print(f"Sweeping {instrument} / {granularity}") + print(f"{'='*60}") + + df = fetch_data(instrument, granularity, sb, table) + if df.empty: + continue + + combos = list(itertools.product(sma_combos, trade_sizes, rsi_filters)) + total = len(combos) + + for idx, ((sma_s, sma_l), ts, (rsi_ob, rsi_os, rsi_label)) in enumerate(combos, 1): + result = fast_backtest(df, sma_s, sma_l, ts, max_dd, + rsi_overbought=rsi_ob, rsi_oversold=rsi_os) + if result is None: + continue + result["instrument"] = instrument + result["granularity"] = granularity + result["rsi_label"] = rsi_label + all_results.append(result) + + print(f" Tested {total} combinations.") + + # Sort by Sharpe ratio descending + all_results.sort(key=lambda x: x["sharpe_ratio"], reverse=True) + + # Save to JSON + root = get_project_root() + out_path = root / "logs" / "param_sweep_results.json" + with open(out_path, "w") as f: + json.dump(all_results, f, indent=2) + + # Print top 20 + print(f"\n{'='*60}") + print(f"TOP 20 RESULTS (by Sharpe ratio)") + print(f"{'='*60}") + print(f"{'Rank':<5} {'Inst':<8} {'Gran':<5} {'SMA':>7} {'Size':>6} {'RSI':<15} {'Return':>9} {'MaxDD':>8} {'WinR':>6} {'Sharpe':>8} {'Trades':>7} {'Final Eq':>12}") + print("-" * 115) + + for i, r in enumerate(all_results[:20], 1): + sma_label = f"{r['sma_short']}/{r['sma_long']}" + rsi_label = r.get("rsi_label", "None") + stop_flag = " *" if r["stopped_out"] else "" + print(f"{i:<5} {r['instrument']:<8} {r['granularity']:<5} {sma_label:>7} {r['trade_size_pct']:>6.1%} " + f"{rsi_label:<15} {r['total_return_pct']:>+8.3f}% {r['max_drawdown_pct']:>7.3f}% {r['win_rate_pct']:>5.1f}% " + f"{r['sharpe_ratio']:>8.2f} {r['round_trips']:>7} ${r['final_equity']:>11,.2f}{stop_flag}") + + # Focus comparison: SMA 50/100 on M15 across RSI filters + print(f"\n{'='*60}") + print(f"FOCUS: SMA 50/100 on M15 — RSI filter comparison (10% size)") + print(f"{'='*60}") + print(f"{'RSI Filter':<20} {'Return':>9} {'MaxDD':>8} {'WinR':>6} {'Sharpe':>8} {'Trades':>7} {'Final Eq':>12}") + print("-" * 80) + + focus = [r for r in all_results + if r["sma_short"] == 50 and r["sma_long"] == 100 + and r["granularity"] == "M15" and r["trade_size_pct"] == 0.10] + focus.sort(key=lambda x: x["sharpe_ratio"], reverse=True) + for r in focus: + rsi_label = r.get("rsi_label", "None") + print(f"{rsi_label:<20} {r['total_return_pct']:>+8.3f}% {r['max_drawdown_pct']:>7.3f}% {r['win_rate_pct']:>5.1f}% " + f"{r['sharpe_ratio']:>8.2f} {r['round_trips']:>7} ${r['final_equity']:>11,.2f}") + + print(f"\nFull results saved to: {out_path}") + print(f"Total combinations tested: {len(all_results)}") + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main()