mirror of
https://github.com/caty21/forex-dashboard.git
synced 2026-07-27 20:37:45 +00:00
Capucine Gest
1043 lines
60 KiB
TypeScript
1043 lines
60 KiB
TypeScript
"use client";
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import { useEffect, useState, useCallback } from "react";
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import { motion, AnimatePresence } from "framer-motion";
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import {
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TrendingUp, TrendingDown, Minus, Loader2, Database,
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BarChart2, Activity, Target, Zap, Eye, Layers,
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ChevronRight, ArrowUpRight, ArrowDownRight, AlertTriangle,
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} from "lucide-react";
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import {
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AreaChart, Area, LineChart, Line, ResponsiveContainer,
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Tooltip, XAxis,
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} from "recharts";
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import { CURRENCY_META, COUNTRY_PROFILES } from "@/lib/constants";
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import { biasLabel, calcMacroScore } from "@/lib/scoring";
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import { saveCache, loadCache, formatCacheDate } from "@/lib/localCache";
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import type { Currency, BiasPhase, RateExpectation } from "@/lib/types";
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import type { CBRatePath } from "@/lib/rateprobability";
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import type { SentimentEntry, CotEntry } from "@/lib/types";
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import NarrativeButton from "./NarrativeButton";
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// ─── Types internes ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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interface Ind {
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value: number | null; prev: number | null; surprise: number | null;
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trend: "up"|"down"|"flat"|null; lastUpdated: string | null;
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consensus?: number | null;
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}
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interface MacroForecasts {
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cpi: number | null; cpiSurprise: number | null;
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cpiCore: number | null; cpiMoM: number | null;
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cpiCoreMoM: number | null; ppiMoM: number | null;
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unemployment: number | null; unemploymentSurprise: number | null;
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pmiMfg: number | null; pmiMfgSurprise: number | null;
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pmiSvc: number | null; pmiSvcSurprise: number | null;
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pmiComposite: number | null; pmiCompositeSurprise: number | null;
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retailSales: number | null; retailSalesSurprise: number | null;
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gdp: number | null; gdpSurprise: number | null;
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employment: number | null; employmentSurprise: number | null;
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}
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interface MacroData {
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currency: string;
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indicators: Record<string, Ind | null>;
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forecasts?: MacroForecasts | null;
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fetchedAt: string;
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}
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interface Props {
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currency: Currency;
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expectations: Record<string, unknown> | null;
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yields: { yields: Record<string, number | null>; spreads: Record<string, number | null> } | null;
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sentiment: SentimentEntry | null;
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cot: CotEntry | null;
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ratePath: CBRatePath | null;
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onDivergenceUpdate: (currency: Currency, score: number) => void;
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}
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type Tab = "overview" | "mispricing" | "focus";
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type SignalDir = "bullish" | "bearish" | "neutral" | "warning";
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// ─── Helpers de style ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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function phaseStyle(p: BiasPhase) {
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if (p === "tightening") return "bg-red-500/15 text-red-400 border-red-500/30";
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if (p === "easing") return "bg-sky-500/15 text-sky-400 border-sky-500/30";
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if (p === "hawkish_pause") return "bg-amber-500/15 text-amber-400 border-amber-500/30";
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if (p === "dovish_pause") return "bg-blue-500/15 text-blue-400 border-blue-500/30";
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return "bg-slate-500/15 text-slate-400 border-slate-500/30";
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}
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function phaseLabel(p: BiasPhase) {
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if (p === "tightening") return "Resserrement";
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if (p === "easing") return "Assouplissement";
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if (p === "hawkish_pause") return "Pause Hawkish";
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if (p === "dovish_pause") return "Pause Dovish";
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return "Transition";
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}
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function scoreDir(score: number): SignalDir {
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if (score >= 3) return "bullish";
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if (score <= -3) return "bearish";
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return "neutral";
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}
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function sigColor(d: SignalDir) {
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if (d === "bullish") return "text-emerald-400";
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if (d === "bearish") return "text-red-400";
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if (d === "warning") return "text-amber-400";
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return "text-slate-400";
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}
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function sigBg(d: SignalDir) {
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if (d === "bullish") return "bg-emerald-500/10 border-emerald-500/20";
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if (d === "bearish") return "bg-red-500/10 border-red-500/20";
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if (d === "warning") return "bg-amber-500/10 border-amber-500/20";
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return "bg-slate-500/10 border-slate-500/20";
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}
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function sigBar(d: SignalDir) {
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if (d === "bullish") return "bg-emerald-500";
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if (d === "bearish") return "bg-red-500";
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if (d === "warning") return "bg-amber-500";
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return "bg-slate-500";
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}
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function computeESI(inds: Record<string, Ind | null> | undefined): number | null {
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if (!inds) return null;
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const invertedKeys = new Set(["unemployment"]);
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const checkKeys = ["cpiYoY", "cpiCore", "pmiMfg", "pmiServices", "gdp", "retailSales", "cpiMoM", "ppiMoM", "employment"];
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const signs: number[] = [];
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for (const key of checkKeys) {
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const s = inds[key]?.surprise;
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if (s === null || s === undefined) continue;
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const sign = s > 0 ? 1 : s < 0 ? -1 : 0;
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signs.push(invertedKeys.has(key) ? -sign : sign);
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}
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if (signs.length === 0) return null;
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return Math.round(signs.reduce((a, v) => a + v, 0) / signs.length * 100);
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}
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function SurpriseIndexBadge({ value }: { value: number }) {
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const color = value > 20 ? "text-emerald-400" : value < -20 ? "text-red-400" : "text-slate-400";
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const bgBar = value > 20 ? "bg-emerald-500" : value < -20 ? "bg-red-500" : "bg-slate-500";
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return (
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<div className="flex items-center gap-1.5">
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<span className="text-[10px] text-slate-600">ESI</span>
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<div className="w-12 h-1 bg-slate-700 rounded-full overflow-hidden">
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<div className={`h-full ${bgBar} rounded-full`} style={{ width: `${Math.min(100, Math.abs(value))}%` }} />
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</div>
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<span className={`text-[10px] font-bold tabular-nums ${color}`}>{value > 0 ? "+" : ""}{value}</span>
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</div>
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);
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}
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function FocusRow({ importance, children }: { importance: "critical" | "high" | "medium"; children: React.ReactNode }) {
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const dot = importance === "critical" ? "bg-red-500" : importance === "high" ? "bg-amber-500" : "bg-slate-500";
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return (
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<div className="flex items-start gap-2">
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<span className={`w-1.5 h-1.5 rounded-full mt-[7px] shrink-0 ${dot}`} />
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<div className="flex-1 min-w-0">{children}</div>
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</div>
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);
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}
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// ─── Profils géopolitiques statiques ─────────────────────────────────────────
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const ENERGY_PROFILE: Record<string, {
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type: "export" | "import" | "neutre";
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desc: string;
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products: string[];
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}> = {
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USD: { type: "export", desc: "1er producteur mondial pétrole + gaz (EIA). Exportateur net depuis 2019.", products: ["Pétrole", "GNL", "Blé", "Soja", "Maïs"] },
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EUR: { type: "import", desc: "Import ~75% énergie (MENA, Russie réduit). Très sensible aux chocs pétrole.", products: ["Blé (FR, DE)", "Machines industrielles"] },
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GBP: { type: "neutre", desc: "Mer du Nord en déclin. Production ≈ consommation (~neutre).", products: ["Services financiers"] },
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JPY: { type: "import", desc: "Import ~90% énergie. 3ème importateur GNL mondial. Très sensible au Détroit d'Hormuz.", products: ["Électronique", "Voitures"] },
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CHF: { type: "import", desc: "Import ~75% énergie (gaz naturel Europe, pétrole OPEP).", products: [] },
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CAD: { type: "export", desc: "Pétrole sables bitumineux (Alberta). Export ~4 Mb/j.", products: ["Pétrole", "Gaz naturel", "Blé", "Potasse", "Bois d'œuvre"] },
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AUD: { type: "export", desc: "2ème exportateur GNL mondial. Export charbon thermique + métallurgique.", products: ["Minerai de fer", "GNL", "Charbon", "Or", "Blé", "Cuivre"] },
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NZD: { type: "import", desc: "Import pétrole. Renouvelables ~85% élec (hydro). Indépendant localement.", products: ["Lait / Produits laitiers", "Viande bovine", "Bois", "Laine"] },
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};
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function trendDir(t: "up"|"down"|"flat"|null): SignalDir {
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if (t === "up") return "bullish";
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if (t === "down") return "bearish";
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return "neutral";
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}
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// ─── Sous-composants ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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function MacroBlock({ title, children }: { title: string; children: React.ReactNode }) {
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return (
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<div className="bg-slate-800/40 rounded-xl border border-slate-700/30 p-3 space-y-1.5">
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<div className="text-[10px] text-slate-500 uppercase tracking-wider font-semibold mb-2">{title}</div>
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{children}
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</div>
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);
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}
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function IRow({
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label, ind, unit = "", consensus, surpriseVsCons, tooltip, info, invertSurprise = false,
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}: {
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label: string; ind: Ind | null; unit?: string;
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consensus?: number | null; surpriseVsCons?: number | null;
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tooltip?: string | null; info?: string | null; invertSurprise?: boolean;
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}) {
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const value = ind?.value ?? null;
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const prev = ind?.prev ?? null;
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const fmt = (v: number | null) => v !== null ? `${v.toFixed(2)}${unit}` : "—";
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const s = ind?.surprise ?? null;
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const effS = invertSurprise && s !== null ? -s : s;
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const valColor = effS === null ? "text-slate-200"
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: effS > 0 ? "text-emerald-400"
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: effS < 0 ? "text-red-400"
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: "text-slate-500";
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const effSurpr = invertSurprise && surpriseVsCons !== null ? -(surpriseVsCons ?? 0) : surpriseVsCons;
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const surpriseCls = effSurpr == null ? "" : effSurpr > 0 ? "text-emerald-500" : effSurpr < 0 ? "text-red-500" : "text-slate-500";
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const surpriseArr = effSurpr == null ? "" : effSurpr > 0 ? "▲" : effSurpr < 0 ? "▼" : "▬";
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return (
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<div className="space-y-0.5">
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<div className="flex items-center justify-between text-[12px]">
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<div className="flex items-center gap-1.5 min-w-0">
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<span className="text-slate-600 shrink-0">→</span>
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<span className="text-slate-400 truncate">{label}</span>
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{info && (
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<span className="relative group/info inline-flex shrink-0 cursor-help">
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<span className="inline-flex items-center justify-center w-3 h-3 rounded-full border border-slate-700 text-slate-500 text-[7px] font-bold leading-none">i</span>
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<span className="pointer-events-none absolute bottom-full left-0 mb-1.5 w-52 px-2 py-1.5 rounded-md bg-slate-950 text-slate-300 text-[10px] leading-snug opacity-0 group-hover/info:opacity-100 transition-opacity duration-150 z-50 shadow-lg whitespace-normal border border-slate-700">
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{info}
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</span>
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</span>
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)}
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</div>
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{tooltip ? (
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<span className="relative group/val cursor-default shrink-0">
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<span className={`font-semibold tabular-nums ${valColor}`}>{fmt(value)}</span>
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<span className="pointer-events-none absolute bottom-full right-0 mb-1.5 w-52 px-2 py-1.5 rounded-md bg-slate-950 text-slate-300 text-[10px] leading-snug opacity-0 group-hover/val:opacity-100 transition-opacity duration-150 z-50 shadow-lg whitespace-normal border border-slate-700">
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{tooltip}
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</span>
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</span>
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) : (
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<span className={`font-semibold tabular-nums shrink-0 ${valColor}`}>{fmt(value)}</span>
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)}
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</div>
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<div className="flex items-center justify-between pl-4 text-[10px] text-slate-600">
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<span>Préc. <span className="text-slate-500">{fmt(prev)}</span></span>
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{surpriseVsCons !== null && surpriseVsCons !== undefined ? (
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<span className={`font-medium ${surpriseCls}`}>
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Surpr. {surpriseArr}{(effSurpr ?? 0) > 0 ? "+" : ""}{(effSurpr ?? 0).toFixed(2)}{unit}
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</span>
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) : consensus !== null && consensus !== undefined ? (
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<span>Cons. <span className="text-blue-400 font-medium">{fmt(consensus)}</span></span>
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) : null}
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</div>
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</div>
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);
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}
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function SignalBar({ strength, direction }: { strength: number; direction: SignalDir }) {
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return (
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<div className="relative w-full h-1.5 bg-slate-700/50 rounded-full overflow-hidden">
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<motion.div
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className={`absolute left-0 top-0 h-full rounded-full ${sigBar(direction)}`}
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initial={{ width: 0 }}
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animate={{ width: `${strength}%` }}
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transition={{ duration: 0.5, ease: "easeOut" }}
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/>
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</div>
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);
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}
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// ─── Composant principal ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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export default function CurrencyCard({
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currency, expectations, yields, sentiment, cot, ratePath, onDivergenceUpdate
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}: Props) {
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const meta = CURRENCY_META[currency];
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// ── State ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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const [data, setData] = useState<MacroData | null>(null);
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const [phase, setPhase] = useState<BiasPhase>("hawkish_pause");
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const [loading, setLoading] = useState(true);
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const [rateExp, setRateExp] = useState<RateExpectation | null>(null);
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const [fromCache, setFromCache] = useState(false);
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const [cacheAge, setCacheAge] = useState<string | null>(null);
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const [activeTab, setActiveTab] = useState<Tab>("overview");
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const [inflFilter, setInflFilter] = useState<"all" | "mom" | "yoy">("mom");
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const [expandedSig, setExpandedSig] = useState<string | null>(null);
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const [divergenceOpen, setDivergenceOpen] = useState(false);
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// ── Data fetch ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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const load = useCallback(async () => {
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setLoading(true);
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const cacheKey = `macro_${currency}`;
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try {
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const res = await fetch(`/api/macro?currency=${currency}`);
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if (!res.ok) throw new Error(`HTTP ${res.status}`);
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const json: MacroData = await res.json();
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if ("error" in json) throw new Error(String((json as Record<string,unknown>).error));
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const prevCache = loadCache<MacroData>(cacheKey);
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const merged: MacroData = {
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...json,
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indicators: {
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...json.indicators,
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pmiMfg: json.indicators.pmiMfg ?? prevCache?.data.indicators.pmiMfg ?? null,
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pmiServices: json.indicators.pmiServices ?? prevCache?.data.indicators.pmiServices ?? null,
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},
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};
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setData(merged);
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setFromCache(false);
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setCacheAge(null);
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saveCache(cacheKey, merged);
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const rateInd = merged.indicators.policyRate;
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if (rateInd?.trend === "up") setPhase("tightening");
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else if (rateInd?.trend === "down") setPhase("easing");
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else setPhase("hawkish_pause");
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} catch {
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const cached = loadCache<MacroData>(cacheKey);
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if (cached) {
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setData(cached.data);
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setFromCache(true);
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setCacheAge(formatCacheDate(cached.savedAt));
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const rateInd = cached.data.indicators.policyRate;
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if (rateInd?.trend === "up") setPhase("tightening");
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else if (rateInd?.trend === "down") setPhase("easing");
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else setPhase("hawkish_pause");
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}
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} finally {
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setLoading(false);
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}
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}, [currency]);
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useEffect(() => { load(); }, [load]);
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useEffect(() => {
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if (!expectations) return;
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const all = [
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...((expectations.rate_hikes ?? []) as RateExpectation[]),
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...((expectations.rate_cuts ?? []) as RateExpectation[]),
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];
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const cbShort = meta.cbShort.toLowerCase();
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setRateExp(all.find((e) =>
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e.cb.toLowerCase().includes(cbShort) || e.cb.toLowerCase().includes(currency.toLowerCase())
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) ?? null);
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}, [expectations, currency, meta.cbShort]);
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// ── Computed values ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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const inds = data?.indicators;
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const fc = data?.forecasts ?? null;
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const forScoring = {
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policyRate: { value: inds?.policyRate?.value ?? null, prev: inds?.policyRate?.prev ?? null, consensus: null, surprise: inds?.policyRate?.surprise ?? null, trend: inds?.policyRate?.trend ?? null, lastUpdated: "" },
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cpiCore: { value: inds?.cpiCore?.value ?? null, prev: inds?.cpiCore?.prev ?? null, consensus: null, surprise: inds?.cpiCore?.surprise ?? null, trend: inds?.cpiCore?.trend ?? null, lastUpdated: "" },
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pmiMfg: { value: inds?.pmiMfg?.value ?? null, prev: inds?.pmiMfg?.prev ?? null, consensus: null, surprise: inds?.pmiMfg?.surprise ?? null, trend: inds?.pmiMfg?.trend ?? null, lastUpdated: "" },
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pmiServices: { value: inds?.pmiServices?.value ?? null, prev: inds?.pmiServices?.prev ?? null, consensus: null, surprise: inds?.pmiServices?.surprise ?? null, trend: inds?.pmiServices?.trend ?? null, lastUpdated: "" },
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gdp: { value: inds?.gdp?.value ?? null, prev: inds?.gdp?.prev ?? null, consensus: null, surprise: inds?.gdp?.surprise ?? null, trend: inds?.gdp?.trend ?? null, lastUpdated: "" },
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retailSales: { value: inds?.retailSales?.value ?? null, prev: inds?.retailSales?.prev ?? null, consensus: null, surprise: inds?.retailSales?.surprise ?? null, trend: inds?.retailSales?.trend ?? null, lastUpdated: "" },
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unemployment: { value: inds?.unemployment?.value ?? null, prev: inds?.unemployment?.prev ?? null, consensus: null, surprise: inds?.unemployment?.surprise ?? null, trend: inds?.unemployment?.trend ?? null, lastUpdated: "" },
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employment: { value: inds?.employment?.value ?? null, prev: inds?.employment?.prev ?? null, consensus: null, surprise: inds?.employment?.surprise ?? null, trend: inds?.employment?.trend ?? null, lastUpdated: "" },
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};
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const macroScore = calcMacroScore(forScoring, phase);
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const biasText = biasLabel(macroScore);
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const dir = scoreDir(macroScore);
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const yield10Y = yields?.yields[currency] ?? null;
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const spread10Y = yields?.spreads[currency] ?? null;
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const esi = computeESI(inds);
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const policyRateValue = inds?.policyRate?.value ?? null;
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const curveSpread = yield10Y !== null && policyRateValue !== null
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? Math.round((yield10Y - policyRateValue) * 100) : null;
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const curveInverted = curveSpread !== null && curveSpread < 0;
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const curveSig: SignalDir = curveSpread === null ? "neutral"
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: curveSpread < -50 ? "warning"
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: curveInverted ? "neutral"
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: "bullish";
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useEffect(() => { onDivergenceUpdate(currency, macroScore); }, [macroScore, currency, onDivergenceUpdate]);
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const rateConsensus = (() => {
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const rate = inds?.policyRate?.value ?? null;
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if (rate === null) return null;
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if (ratePath && ratePath.meetings.length > 0) {
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const next = ratePath.meetings[0];
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if (next.probMovePct > 50)
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return next.probIsCut
|
||
? parseFloat((rate - 0.25).toFixed(2))
|
||
: parseFloat((rate + 0.25).toFixed(2));
|
||
return parseFloat(rate.toFixed(2));
|
||
}
|
||
if (!rateExp) return null;
|
||
const desc = rateExp.prob_desc.toLowerCase();
|
||
if (desc.includes("no change")) return parseFloat(rate.toFixed(2));
|
||
if (rateExp.direction === "cut" && rateExp.prob_pct > 50) return parseFloat((rate - 0.25).toFixed(2));
|
||
if (rateExp.direction === "hike" && rateExp.prob_pct > 50) return parseFloat((rate + 0.25).toFixed(2));
|
||
return parseFloat(rate.toFixed(2));
|
||
})();
|
||
|
||
// ── Mispricing signals (computed from live data) ──────────────────────────────
|
||
const mispricingSignals: {
|
||
id: string; label: string; value: string; detail: string;
|
||
direction: SignalDir; strength: number; icon: React.ReactNode;
|
||
}[] = [];
|
||
|
||
// COT CFTC — Leveraged Money (hedge funds), source : CFTC FinFutWk.txt
|
||
// Logique : "follow smart money" — majorité long HF = bullish, majorité short = bearish
|
||
// ≠ Retail Myfxbook (contrarian) qui est géré séparément dans le signal "sentiment"
|
||
if (cot) {
|
||
const cotDir: SignalDir = cot.longPct > 60 ? "bullish" // HF majoritairement long = bullish
|
||
: cot.shortPct > 60 ? "bearish" // HF majoritairement short = bearish
|
||
: cot.net > 0 ? "bullish" : cot.net < 0 ? "bearish" : "neutral";
|
||
const imbalance = Math.abs(cot.longPct - cot.shortPct);
|
||
mispricingSignals.push({
|
||
id: "cot", label: "COT Hedge Funds (CFTC)",
|
||
direction: cotDir,
|
||
value: `${cot.longPct.toFixed(0)}% L / ${cot.shortPct.toFixed(0)}% S`,
|
||
detail: `Leveraged Money CFTC : ${cot.longPct.toFixed(0)}% long vs ${cot.shortPct.toFixed(0)}% short (imbalance ${imbalance.toFixed(0)}%, net ${cot.net > 0 ? "+" : ""}${(cot.net / 1000).toFixed(0)}k). ${cotDir === "bullish" ? "Hedge funds majoritairement longs → signal institutionnel haussier." : cotDir === "bearish" ? "Hedge funds majoritairement shorts → signal institutionnel baissier." : "Positioning institutionnel équilibré."}`,
|
||
strength: Math.min(100, imbalance * 2),
|
||
icon: <BarChart2 size={13} />,
|
||
});
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
// OIS / rate probability — avec drift bps fin d'an
|
||
if (ratePath && ratePath.meetings.length > 0) {
|
||
const peak = ratePath.peakMeeting;
|
||
const yearEndBps = ratePath.yearEndImplied !== null
|
||
? Math.round((ratePath.yearEndImplied - ratePath.currentRate) * 100) : null;
|
||
if (peak) {
|
||
const oisDir: SignalDir = peak.probIsCut ? "bearish" : "bullish";
|
||
const bpsLabel = yearEndBps !== null ? `${yearEndBps > 0 ? "+" : ""}${yearEndBps}bps fin an` : "";
|
||
mispricingSignals.push({
|
||
id: "ois", label: "OIS — Drift taux fin d'an",
|
||
direction: oisDir,
|
||
value: bpsLabel
|
||
? `${peak.probMovePct.toFixed(0)}% ${peak.probIsCut ? "Cut" : "Hike"} · ${bpsLabel}`
|
||
: `${peak.probMovePct.toFixed(0)}% ${peak.probIsCut ? "Cut" : "Hike"}`,
|
||
detail: `Pic OIS : ${peak.probMovePct.toFixed(0)}% de ${peak.probIsCut ? "baisse" : "hausse"} à la réunion ${peak.label}. Taux implicite fin d'an : ${ratePath.yearEndImplied?.toFixed(2) ?? "—"}% (${yearEndBps !== null ? (yearEndBps > 0 ? "+" : "") + yearEndBps + "bps vs taux actuel" : "—"}).`,
|
||
strength: peak.probMovePct,
|
||
icon: <Target size={13} />,
|
||
});
|
||
}
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
// Yield curve / spread
|
||
if (spread10Y !== null && currency !== "USD") {
|
||
const curveDir: SignalDir = spread10Y > 0 ? "bullish" : spread10Y < -150 ? "bearish" : "neutral";
|
||
mispricingSignals.push({
|
||
id: "yield", label: "Spread 10Y vs USD", direction: curveDir,
|
||
value: `${spread10Y > 0 ? "+" : ""}${spread10Y}bps`,
|
||
detail: `Différentiel de taux 10 ans vs US : ${spread10Y > 0 ? "+" : ""}${spread10Y}bps. ${Math.abs(spread10Y) > 100 ? "Écart important — potentiel de compression/expansion non pricé." : "Différentiel modéré."}`,
|
||
strength: Math.min(100, Math.abs(spread10Y) / 2),
|
||
icon: <Activity size={13} />,
|
||
});
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
// Inflation pressure
|
||
const cpiYoY = inds?.cpiYoY?.value ?? inds?.cpiCore?.value ?? null;
|
||
const policyRate = inds?.policyRate?.value ?? null;
|
||
if (cpiYoY !== null && policyRate !== null) {
|
||
const realRate = policyRate - cpiYoY;
|
||
const inflDir: SignalDir = realRate < 0 ? "bearish" : realRate > 1.5 ? "bullish" : "neutral";
|
||
mispricingSignals.push({
|
||
id: "inflation", label: "Taux Réel (Taux − Inflation)", direction: inflDir,
|
||
value: `${realRate > 0 ? "+" : ""}${realRate.toFixed(2)}%`,
|
||
detail: `Taux directeur ${policyRate.toFixed(2)}% − Inflation YoY ${cpiYoY.toFixed(2)}% = Taux réel ${realRate.toFixed(2)}%. ${realRate < 0 ? "Taux réel négatif → politique encore accommodante → bearish devise." : "Taux réel positif → politique restrictive → bullish devise."}`,
|
||
strength: Math.min(100, Math.abs(realRate) * 25),
|
||
icon: <Zap size={13} />,
|
||
});
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
// Sentiment retail — contrarian (majorité short = bullish, majorité long = bearish)
|
||
if (sentiment) {
|
||
const sentDir: SignalDir = sentiment.longPct < 30 ? "bullish"
|
||
: sentiment.longPct > 70 ? "bearish" : "neutral";
|
||
mispricingSignals.push({
|
||
id: "sentiment", label: "Sentiment Retail (Contrarian)", direction: sentDir,
|
||
value: `${sentiment.longPct.toFixed(0)}% Long`,
|
||
detail: `Retail ${sentiment.longPct.toFixed(0)}% long / ${sentiment.shortPct.toFixed(0)}% short. Signal contrarian : ${sentDir === "bullish" ? "majorité short → opportunité haussière" : sentDir === "bearish" ? "majorité long → opportunité baissière" : "sentiment équilibré — pas de signal contrarian fort"}.`,
|
||
strength: Math.abs(sentiment.longPct - 50) * 2,
|
||
icon: <Eye size={13} />,
|
||
});
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
const bullCount = mispricingSignals.filter(s => s.direction === "bullish").length;
|
||
const bearCount = mispricingSignals.filter(s => s.direction === "bearish").length;
|
||
const avgStr = mispricingSignals.length > 0
|
||
? Math.round(mispricingSignals.reduce((a, s) => a + s.strength, 0) / mispricingSignals.length) : 0;
|
||
const mispricDir: SignalDir = bullCount > bearCount ? "bullish" : bearCount > bullCount ? "bearish" : "neutral";
|
||
|
||
// Convergence : les deux s'alignent → fort signal
|
||
// Divergence : macro et signaux se contredisent → alerte
|
||
// Macro seul : signaux neutres mais macro directionnelle → signaler quand même
|
||
// Signaux seuls: macro neutre mais signaux directionnels → signaler quand même
|
||
const divergenceSignal: SignalDir =
|
||
mispricDir !== "neutral" && dir !== "neutral" && mispricDir === dir ? mispricDir :
|
||
mispricDir !== "neutral" && dir !== "neutral" && mispricDir !== dir ? "warning" :
|
||
dir !== "neutral" ? dir : // macro seule directionnelle (signaux neutres)
|
||
mispricDir !== "neutral" ? mispricDir : // signaux seuls (macro neutre)
|
||
"neutral";
|
||
|
||
const macroOnly = dir !== "neutral" && mispricDir === "neutral";
|
||
const signalsOnly = mispricDir !== "neutral" && dir === "neutral";
|
||
const bothAligned = mispricDir !== "neutral" && dir !== "neutral" && mispricDir === dir;
|
||
const bothOpposed = mispricDir !== "neutral" && dir !== "neutral" && mispricDir !== dir;
|
||
|
||
const divergenceType =
|
||
bothAligned && divergenceSignal === "bullish" ? "Convergence haussière multi-signal" :
|
||
bothAligned && divergenceSignal === "bearish" ? "Convergence baissière multi-signal" :
|
||
bothOpposed ? `Divergence: macro ${dir === "bullish" ? "↑" : "↓"} vs signaux ${mispricDir === "bullish" ? "↑" : "↓"}` :
|
||
macroOnly && dir === "bullish" ? `Macro haussière (score +${macroScore}), signaux neutres` :
|
||
macroOnly && dir === "bearish" ? `Macro baissière (score ${macroScore}), signaux neutres` :
|
||
signalsOnly && mispricDir === "bullish" ? `Signaux haussiers, macro neutre` :
|
||
signalsOnly && mispricDir === "bearish" ? `Signaux baissiers, macro neutre` :
|
||
"Pas de signal convergent";
|
||
|
||
// Détail des contributeurs macro (même logique que calcMacroScore)
|
||
const macroContributors: { label: string; value: string; sig: number }[] = [
|
||
{ label: "Taux directeur", value: inds?.policyRate?.value != null ? `${inds.policyRate.value.toFixed(2)}%` : "", sig: (() => { const s = inds?.policyRate?.surprise; return s == null ? 0 : s > 0.3 ? 1 : s < -0.3 ? -1 : 0; })() },
|
||
{ label: "Core CPI", value: inds?.cpiCore?.value != null ? `${inds.cpiCore.value.toFixed(2)}%` : "", sig: (() => { const s = inds?.cpiCore?.surprise; return s == null ? 0 : s > 0.3 ? 1 : s < -0.3 ? -1 : 0; })() },
|
||
{ label: "PMI Mfg", value: inds?.pmiMfg?.value != null ? `${inds.pmiMfg.value.toFixed(1)}` : "", sig: inds?.pmiMfg?.value != null ? (inds.pmiMfg.value > 50 ? 1 : -1) : 0 },
|
||
{ label: "PMI Services", value: inds?.pmiServices?.value != null ? `${inds.pmiServices.value.toFixed(1)}` : "", sig: inds?.pmiServices?.value != null ? (inds.pmiServices.value > 50 ? 1 : -1) : 0 },
|
||
{ label: "PIB QoQ", value: inds?.gdp?.value != null ? `${inds.gdp.value > 0 ? "+" : ""}${inds.gdp.value.toFixed(2)}%` : "", sig: (() => { const s = inds?.gdp?.surprise; return s == null ? 0 : s > 0.3 ? 1 : s < -0.3 ? -1 : 0; })() },
|
||
{ label: "Retail Sales", value: inds?.retailSales?.value != null ? `${inds.retailSales.value > 0 ? "+" : ""}${inds.retailSales.value.toFixed(2)}%` : "", sig: (() => { const s = inds?.retailSales?.surprise; return s == null ? 0 : s > 0.3 ? 1 : s < -0.3 ? -1 : 0; })() },
|
||
{ label: "Chômage", value: inds?.unemployment?.value != null ? `${inds.unemployment.value.toFixed(2)}%` : "", sig: (() => { const s = inds?.unemployment?.surprise; return s == null ? 0 : s < -0.3 ? 1 : s > 0.3 ? -1 : 0; })() },
|
||
{ label: "Emploi", value: inds?.employment?.value != null ? `${inds.employment.value > 0 ? "+" : ""}${inds.employment.value.toFixed(1)}k` : "", sig: (() => { const s = inds?.employment?.surprise; return s == null ? 0 : s > 10 ? 1 : s < -10 ? -1 : 0; })() },
|
||
].filter(c => c.value !== "");
|
||
|
||
// ── Tabs config ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||
const TABS: { id: Tab; label: string; icon: React.ReactNode }[] = [
|
||
{ id: "overview", label: "Aperçu", icon: <Layers size={10} /> },
|
||
{ id: "mispricing", label: "Signaux", icon: <Eye size={10} /> },
|
||
{ id: "focus", label: "Focus", icon: <Target size={10} /> },
|
||
];
|
||
|
||
// ── Render ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||
return (
|
||
<div className="bg-slate-900 border border-slate-800 rounded-2xl flex flex-col">
|
||
|
||
{/* ── Header ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── */}
|
||
<div className="px-4 pt-4 pb-3 border-b border-slate-800">
|
||
<div className="flex items-start justify-between mb-2">
|
||
<div className="flex items-center gap-2.5">
|
||
<span className="text-2xl leading-none">{meta.flag}</span>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<div className="flex items-center gap-2">
|
||
<span className="text-xl font-black text-white tracking-tight">{currency}</span>
|
||
{!loading && (
|
||
<span className={`text-sm font-bold ${sigColor(dir)}`}>{biasText}</span>
|
||
)}
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div className="text-[11px] text-slate-500">{meta.cbShort} · {meta.name}</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div className="text-right">
|
||
{loading
|
||
? <Loader2 size={16} className="animate-spin text-slate-600 mt-1" />
|
||
: <>
|
||
<div className={`text-2xl font-black tabular-nums ${sigColor(dir)}`}>
|
||
{macroScore > 0 ? "+" : ""}{macroScore}
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div className="text-[10px] text-slate-600">score</div>
|
||
</>
|
||
}
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
{/* Phase pill + mispricing + ESI + cache */}
|
||
<div className="flex items-center gap-2 flex-wrap">
|
||
<span className={`text-[10px] font-semibold px-2 py-0.5 rounded-full border ${phaseStyle(phase)}`}>
|
||
{phaseLabel(phase)}
|
||
</span>
|
||
{mispricingSignals.length > 0 && (
|
||
<span className={`text-[10px] font-semibold px-2 py-0.5 rounded-full border flex items-center gap-1 ${sigBg(mispricDir)}`}>
|
||
<span className={sigColor(mispricDir)}>
|
||
{mispricDir === "bullish" ? "▲" : mispricDir === "bearish" ? "▼" : "—"} {avgStr}
|
||
</span>
|
||
<span className="text-slate-600">signaux</span>
|
||
</span>
|
||
)}
|
||
{esi !== null && <SurpriseIndexBadge value={esi} />}
|
||
{fromCache && cacheAge && (
|
||
<span className="flex items-center gap-0.5 text-[9px] text-amber-500" title="Données depuis le cache local">
|
||
<Database size={9} /> cache {cacheAge}
|
||
</span>
|
||
)}
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
{/* ── Tab bar ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── */}
|
||
<div className="flex border-b border-slate-800 px-1 pt-1">
|
||
{TABS.map((t) => (
|
||
<button
|
||
key={t.id}
|
||
onClick={() => setActiveTab(t.id)}
|
||
className={`flex items-center gap-1.5 px-3 py-2 text-[11px] font-medium rounded-t-lg transition-all ${
|
||
activeTab === t.id
|
||
? "text-white bg-slate-800"
|
||
: "text-slate-500 hover:text-slate-300"
|
||
}`}
|
||
>
|
||
{t.icon}
|
||
{t.label}
|
||
{t.id === "mispricing" && mispricingSignals.length > 0 && (
|
||
<span className={`text-[9px] font-bold px-1 rounded ${
|
||
mispricDir === "bullish" ? "bg-emerald-500/20 text-emerald-400"
|
||
: mispricDir === "bearish" ? "bg-red-500/20 text-red-400"
|
||
: "bg-slate-700 text-slate-400"
|
||
}`}>
|
||
{bullCount > bearCount ? `${bullCount}↑` : bearCount > bullCount ? `${bearCount}↓` : "—"}
|
||
</span>
|
||
)}
|
||
</button>
|
||
))}
|
||
<div className="flex-1" />
|
||
<NarrativeButton currency={currency} phase={phase} macroScore={macroScore} />
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
{/* ── Tab content ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────── */}
|
||
<div className="flex-1 overflow-y-auto p-3">
|
||
<AnimatePresence mode="wait">
|
||
<motion.div
|
||
key={activeTab}
|
||
initial={{ opacity: 0, y: 5 }}
|
||
animate={{ opacity: 1, y: 0 }}
|
||
exit={{ opacity: 0, y: -5 }}
|
||
transition={{ duration: 0.12 }}
|
||
className="space-y-2"
|
||
>
|
||
|
||
{/* ════ APERÇU ════════════════════════════════════════════════════ */}
|
||
{activeTab === "overview" && (
|
||
<>
|
||
{/* OIS mini-chart */}
|
||
{ratePath && ratePath.meetings.length > 0 && (
|
||
<div className="bg-slate-800/40 rounded-xl border border-slate-700/30 p-3">
|
||
<div className="flex items-center justify-between mb-2">
|
||
<span className="text-[10px] text-slate-500 uppercase tracking-wider font-semibold">OIS · Probabilités de move</span>
|
||
<span className="text-[10px] text-slate-600">au {ratePath.asOf}</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<ResponsiveContainer width="100%" height={48}>
|
||
<LineChart
|
||
data={ratePath.meetings.map(m => ({
|
||
label: m.label,
|
||
prob: m.probMovePct,
|
||
}))}
|
||
margin={{ top: 2, right: 0, left: 0, bottom: 0 }}
|
||
>
|
||
<Line type="monotone" dataKey="prob" stroke="#f59e0b" strokeWidth={1.5} dot={{ r: 2, fill: "#f59e0b" }} />
|
||
<XAxis dataKey="label" tick={{ fontSize: 8, fill: "#64748b" }} axisLine={false} tickLine={false} />
|
||
<Tooltip
|
||
contentStyle={{ background: "#0f172a", border: "1px solid #334155", borderRadius: 6, fontSize: 10 }}
|
||
labelStyle={{ color: "#94a3b8" }}
|
||
itemStyle={{ color: "#f59e0b" }}
|
||
formatter={(v: number) => [`${v.toFixed(0)}%`, "Probabilité"]}
|
||
/>
|
||
</LineChart>
|
||
</ResponsiveContainer>
|
||
{ratePath.peakMeeting && (
|
||
<div className="flex items-center justify-between mt-1 text-[10px]">
|
||
<span className="text-slate-600">
|
||
Pic : <span className="text-slate-400">{ratePath.peakMeeting.label}</span>
|
||
</span>
|
||
<span className={ratePath.peakMeeting.probIsCut ? "text-sky-400 font-bold" : "text-red-400 font-bold"}>
|
||
{ratePath.peakMeeting.probMovePct.toFixed(0)}% {ratePath.peakMeeting.probIsCut ? "Cut" : "Hike"}
|
||
</span>
|
||
{ratePath.yearEndImplied !== null && (() => {
|
||
const bps = Math.round((ratePath.yearEndImplied! - ratePath.currentRate) * 100);
|
||
const cls = bps < 0 ? "text-sky-400 font-bold" : bps > 0 ? "text-red-400 font-bold" : "text-slate-500";
|
||
return (
|
||
<span className={cls} title={`Taux actuel: ${ratePath.currentRate.toFixed(2)}% → fin an: ${ratePath.yearEndImplied!.toFixed(2)}%`}>
|
||
{bps > 0 ? "+" : ""}{bps}bps fin an
|
||
</span>
|
||
);
|
||
})()}
|
||
</div>
|
||
)}
|
||
</div>
|
||
)}
|
||
|
||
{/* Divergence / convergence signal — expandable */}
|
||
{divergenceSignal !== "neutral" && (
|
||
<div className={`rounded-xl border overflow-hidden ${sigBg(divergenceSignal)}`}>
|
||
<button
|
||
className="w-full p-3 flex items-center justify-between text-left"
|
||
onClick={() => setDivergenceOpen(o => !o)}
|
||
>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<div className="text-[10px] text-slate-500 uppercase tracking-widest mb-0.5">Signal Convergence</div>
|
||
<div className={`text-[11px] font-semibold ${sigColor(divergenceSignal)}`}>{divergenceType}</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div className="flex items-center gap-2 shrink-0">
|
||
{divergenceSignal === "bullish" && <TrendingUp size={16} className="text-emerald-400" />}
|
||
{divergenceSignal === "bearish" && <TrendingDown size={16} className="text-red-400" />}
|
||
{divergenceSignal === "warning" && <AlertTriangle size={16} className="text-amber-400" />}
|
||
<ChevronRight size={12} className={`text-slate-600 transition-transform ${divergenceOpen ? "rotate-90" : ""}`} />
|
||
</div>
|
||
</button>
|
||
<AnimatePresence>
|
||
{divergenceOpen && (
|
||
<motion.div
|
||
initial={{ height: 0, opacity: 0 }}
|
||
animate={{ height: "auto", opacity: 1 }}
|
||
exit={{ height: 0, opacity: 0 }}
|
||
transition={{ duration: 0.2 }}
|
||
className="overflow-hidden"
|
||
>
|
||
<div className="px-3 pb-3 space-y-3 border-t border-slate-700/30">
|
||
{/* Macro indicators */}
|
||
<div className="pt-2">
|
||
<div className="text-[9px] text-slate-600 uppercase tracking-wider mb-1.5 flex items-center justify-between">
|
||
<span>Fondamentaux macro</span>
|
||
<span className={`font-bold text-[10px] ${sigColor(dir)}`}>score {macroScore > 0 ? "+" : ""}{macroScore}</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div className="space-y-1">
|
||
{macroContributors.map(c => (
|
||
<div key={c.label} className="flex items-center justify-between text-[11px]">
|
||
<div className="flex items-center gap-1.5">
|
||
<span className={c.sig > 0 ? "text-emerald-400" : c.sig < 0 ? "text-red-400" : "text-slate-600"}>
|
||
{c.sig > 0 ? "↑" : c.sig < 0 ? "↓" : "→"}
|
||
</span>
|
||
<span className="text-slate-400">{c.label}</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<span className={`font-semibold tabular-nums ${c.sig > 0 ? "text-emerald-400" : c.sig < 0 ? "text-red-400" : "text-slate-500"}`}>
|
||
{c.value}
|
||
</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
))}
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
{/* Market signals */}
|
||
{mispricingSignals.length > 0 && (
|
||
<div className="pt-2 border-t border-slate-700/30">
|
||
<div className="text-[9px] text-slate-600 uppercase tracking-wider mb-1.5 flex items-center justify-between">
|
||
<span>Signaux marché</span>
|
||
<span className={`font-bold text-[10px] ${sigColor(mispricDir)}`}>
|
||
{bullCount}↑ {bearCount}↓
|
||
</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div className="space-y-1">
|
||
{mispricingSignals.map(s => (
|
||
<div key={s.id} className="flex items-center justify-between text-[11px]">
|
||
<div className="flex items-center gap-1.5">
|
||
<span className={sigColor(s.direction)}>
|
||
{s.direction === "bullish" ? "↑" : s.direction === "bearish" ? "↓" : "→"}
|
||
</span>
|
||
<span className="text-slate-400 truncate max-w-[120px]">{s.label}</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<span className={`font-semibold tabular-nums shrink-0 ${sigColor(s.direction)}`}>
|
||
{s.value}
|
||
</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
))}
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
)}
|
||
</div>
|
||
</motion.div>
|
||
)}
|
||
</AnimatePresence>
|
||
</div>
|
||
)}
|
||
|
||
{/* Politique Monétaire */}
|
||
<MacroBlock title="Politique Monétaire">
|
||
<IRow
|
||
label="Taux directeur"
|
||
ind={inds?.policyRate ?? null}
|
||
unit="%" consensus={rateConsensus}
|
||
/>
|
||
<div className="flex items-center justify-between text-[12px]">
|
||
<div className="flex items-center gap-1.5">
|
||
<span className="text-slate-600">→</span>
|
||
<span className="text-slate-400">10Y Yield</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div className="flex items-center gap-2">
|
||
<span className="font-semibold text-slate-200 tabular-nums">
|
||
{yield10Y !== null ? `${yield10Y.toFixed(2)}%` : "—"}
|
||
</span>
|
||
{spread10Y !== null && (
|
||
<span className={`text-[10px] ${spread10Y > 0 ? "text-emerald-500" : "text-red-500"}`}>
|
||
({spread10Y > 0 ? "+" : ""}{spread10Y}bps vs US)
|
||
</span>
|
||
)}
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
{curveSpread !== null && (
|
||
<div className="flex items-center justify-between text-[12px]">
|
||
<div className="flex items-center gap-1.5">
|
||
<span className="text-slate-600">→</span>
|
||
<span className="text-slate-400">Courbe (10Y−CT)</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<span className={`font-semibold tabular-nums ${sigColor(curveSig)}`}>
|
||
{curveSpread > 0 ? "+" : ""}{curveSpread}bps{curveInverted ? " ⚠" : ""}
|
||
</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
)}
|
||
{(() => {
|
||
const cpiRef = inds?.cpiYoY?.value ?? inds?.cpiCore?.value ?? null;
|
||
if (policyRateValue === null || cpiRef === null) return null;
|
||
const realRate = parseFloat((policyRateValue - cpiRef).toFixed(2));
|
||
const rDir: SignalDir = realRate < 0 ? "bearish" : realRate > 1.5 ? "bullish" : "neutral";
|
||
return (
|
||
<div className="flex items-center justify-between text-[12px]">
|
||
<div className="flex items-center gap-1.5">
|
||
<span className="text-slate-600">→</span>
|
||
<span className="text-slate-400">Taux réel (CT−CPI)</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<span className={`font-semibold tabular-nums ${sigColor(rDir)}`}>
|
||
{realRate > 0 ? "+" : ""}{realRate}%
|
||
</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
);
|
||
})()}
|
||
</MacroBlock>
|
||
|
||
{/* Inflation avec filtre MoM/YoY */}
|
||
<div className="bg-slate-800/40 rounded-xl border border-slate-700/30 p-3 space-y-1.5">
|
||
<div className="flex items-center justify-between mb-2">
|
||
<span className="text-[10px] text-slate-500 uppercase tracking-wider font-semibold">Inflation</span>
|
||
<div className="flex gap-0.5">
|
||
{(["all", "mom", "yoy"] as const).map((v) => (
|
||
<button
|
||
key={v}
|
||
onClick={() => setInflFilter(v)}
|
||
className={`text-[8px] px-1.5 py-0.5 rounded font-semibold uppercase tracking-wide transition-colors ${
|
||
inflFilter === v
|
||
? "bg-slate-600 text-white"
|
||
: "text-slate-500 hover:text-slate-300"
|
||
}`}
|
||
>
|
||
{v === "all" ? "Tout" : v.toUpperCase()}
|
||
</button>
|
||
))}
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
{(inflFilter === "all" || inflFilter === "mom") && (
|
||
<>
|
||
<IRow label="PPI MoM" ind={inds?.ppiMoM ?? null} unit="%" consensus={fc?.ppiMoM ?? null} />
|
||
<IRow label="CPI MoM" ind={inds?.cpiMoM ?? null} unit="%" consensus={fc?.cpiMoM ?? null} info="Source : Inflation Rate MoM (TradingEconomics)" />
|
||
<IRow
|
||
label={(() => {
|
||
const isQoQ = (inds?.cpiCoreMoM as (Ind & { isQoQ?: boolean }) | null)?.isQoQ;
|
||
return isQoQ ? "Core CPI QoQ" : "Core CPI MoM";
|
||
})()}
|
||
ind={inds?.cpiCoreMoM ?? null}
|
||
unit="%" consensus={fc?.cpiCoreMoM ?? null}
|
||
info="=Core Inflation Rate MoM"
|
||
tooltip={(() => {
|
||
const raw = (inds?.cpiCoreMoM as (Ind & { _raw?: { last: number; prev: number; refMonth: string } }) | null)?._raw;
|
||
return raw ? `Index: last=${raw.last} prev=${raw.prev} ref=${raw.refMonth}` : null;
|
||
})()}
|
||
/>
|
||
</>
|
||
)}
|
||
|
||
{(inflFilter === "all" || inflFilter === "yoy") && (
|
||
<>
|
||
<IRow
|
||
label="Core CPI YoY"
|
||
ind={inds?.cpiCore ?? null}
|
||
unit="%" consensus={fc?.cpiCore ?? fc?.cpi ?? null}
|
||
surpriseVsCons={fc?.cpiSurprise ?? null}
|
||
info={(() => {
|
||
const fd = (inds?.cpiCore as (Ind & { _finalForecast?: number; _finalDelta?: number }) | null);
|
||
const base = "=Core Inflation Rate YoY";
|
||
if (fd?._finalForecast === undefined) return base;
|
||
const d = fd._finalDelta ?? 0;
|
||
return `${base} • Final prévu : ${fd._finalForecast?.toFixed(1)}% (${d > 0 ? "↑" : d < 0 ? "↓" : "="})`;
|
||
})()}
|
||
/>
|
||
<IRow
|
||
label="Inflation Rate YoY"
|
||
ind={inds?.cpiYoY ?? null}
|
||
unit="%" consensus={fc?.cpi ?? null}
|
||
info={(() => {
|
||
const fd = (inds?.cpiYoY as (Ind & { _finalForecast?: number; _finalDelta?: number }) | null);
|
||
const base = "=Inflation Rate YoY";
|
||
if (fd?._finalForecast === undefined) return base;
|
||
const d = fd._finalDelta ?? 0;
|
||
return `${base} • Final prévu : ${fd._finalForecast?.toFixed(1)}% (${d > 0 ? "↑" : d < 0 ? "↓" : "="})`;
|
||
})()}
|
||
/>
|
||
{inds?.commodityPricesYoY && (
|
||
<IRow label="Commodity Prices YoY" ind={inds.commodityPricesYoY} unit="%" info="AUD — RBA Commodity Price Index" />
|
||
)}
|
||
</>
|
||
)}
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
{/* Croissance */}
|
||
<MacroBlock title="Croissance">
|
||
<IRow label="PIB (QoQ%)" ind={inds?.gdp ?? null} unit="%" consensus={fc?.gdp ?? null} surpriseVsCons={fc?.gdpSurprise ?? null} />
|
||
<IRow label="PMI Composite" ind={inds?.pmiComposite ?? null} consensus={fc?.pmiComposite ?? null} surpriseVsCons={fc?.pmiCompositeSurprise ?? null} />
|
||
<IRow label="Retail Sales" ind={inds?.retailSales ?? null} unit="%" consensus={fc?.retailSales ?? null} surpriseVsCons={fc?.retailSalesSurprise ?? null} />
|
||
</MacroBlock>
|
||
|
||
{/* Emploi */}
|
||
<MacroBlock title="Emploi">
|
||
<IRow label="Variation emploi" ind={inds?.employment ?? null} unit="k" consensus={fc?.employment ?? null} surpriseVsCons={fc?.employmentSurprise ?? null} />
|
||
<IRow label="Taux de chômage" ind={inds?.unemployment ?? null} unit="%" invertSurprise consensus={fc?.unemployment ?? null} surpriseVsCons={fc?.unemploymentSurprise ?? null} />
|
||
</MacroBlock>
|
||
|
||
{/* PMI détail */}
|
||
<MacroBlock title="PMI Détail">
|
||
<IRow label="PMI Manufacturing" ind={inds?.pmiMfg ?? null} consensus={fc?.pmiMfg ?? null} surpriseVsCons={fc?.pmiMfgSurprise ?? null} />
|
||
<IRow label="PMI Services" ind={inds?.pmiServices ?? null} consensus={fc?.pmiSvc ?? null} surpriseVsCons={fc?.pmiSvcSurprise ?? null} />
|
||
</MacroBlock>
|
||
</>
|
||
)}
|
||
|
||
{/* ════ SIGNAUX / MISPRICING ════════════════════════════════════ */}
|
||
{activeTab === "mispricing" && (
|
||
<>
|
||
{/* Biais global */}
|
||
<div className={`rounded-xl border p-3 flex items-center justify-between ${sigBg(mispricDir)}`}>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<div className="text-[10px] text-slate-500 uppercase tracking-widest mb-0.5">Biais Signaux</div>
|
||
<div className={`text-sm font-bold ${sigColor(mispricDir)}`}>
|
||
{mispricDir === "bullish" ? `${currency} Haussier` : mispricDir === "bearish" ? `${currency} Baissier` : "Signal Mixte"}
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div className="text-right">
|
||
<div className="text-[10px] text-slate-500 mb-0.5">Force moy.</div>
|
||
<div className={`text-2xl font-black tabular-nums ${sigColor(mispricDir)}`}>{avgStr}</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
{/* Signal list */}
|
||
<div className="space-y-2">
|
||
{mispricingSignals.length === 0 && (
|
||
<div className="text-center text-slate-600 text-[11px] py-4">Données insuffisantes pour calculer les signaux</div>
|
||
)}
|
||
{mispricingSignals.map((sig) => (
|
||
<div key={sig.id}
|
||
className="rounded-xl border overflow-hidden bg-slate-800/30"
|
||
style={{
|
||
borderColor: sig.direction === "bullish" ? "rgba(16,185,129,0.15)"
|
||
: sig.direction === "bearish" ? "rgba(239,68,68,0.15)"
|
||
: "rgba(100,116,139,0.2)"
|
||
}}
|
||
>
|
||
<button
|
||
className="w-full px-3 py-2.5 flex items-center gap-3 text-left"
|
||
onClick={() => setExpandedSig(expandedSig === sig.id ? null : sig.id)}
|
||
>
|
||
<span className={`p-1.5 rounded-lg shrink-0 ${
|
||
sig.direction === "bullish" ? "bg-emerald-500/15 text-emerald-400"
|
||
: sig.direction === "bearish" ? "bg-red-500/15 text-red-400"
|
||
: "bg-amber-500/15 text-amber-400"
|
||
}`}>
|
||
{sig.icon}
|
||
</span>
|
||
<div className="flex-1 min-w-0">
|
||
<div className="flex items-center justify-between mb-1">
|
||
<span className="text-[11px] text-slate-300 font-medium">{sig.label}</span>
|
||
<span className={`text-[11px] font-bold tabular-nums ${sigColor(sig.direction)}`}>{sig.value}</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<SignalBar strength={sig.strength} direction={sig.direction} />
|
||
</div>
|
||
<ChevronRight size={12} className={`text-slate-600 shrink-0 transition-transform ${expandedSig === sig.id ? "rotate-90" : ""}`} />
|
||
</button>
|
||
<AnimatePresence>
|
||
{expandedSig === sig.id && (
|
||
<motion.div
|
||
initial={{ height: 0, opacity: 0 }}
|
||
animate={{ height: "auto", opacity: 1 }}
|
||
exit={{ height: 0, opacity: 0 }}
|
||
transition={{ duration: 0.2 }}
|
||
className="overflow-hidden"
|
||
>
|
||
<div className="px-3 pb-3 pt-1 border-t border-slate-700/40">
|
||
<p className="text-[11px] text-slate-400 leading-relaxed">{sig.detail}</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</motion.div>
|
||
)}
|
||
</AnimatePresence>
|
||
</div>
|
||
))}
|
||
</div>
|
||
</>
|
||
)}
|
||
|
||
{/* ════ FOCUS DONNÉES ══════════════════════════════════════════════ */}
|
||
{activeTab === "focus" && (
|
||
<>
|
||
{/* Context phase */}
|
||
<div className={`rounded-xl border p-3 text-[11px] ${sigBg(trendDir(phase === "tightening" ? "up" : phase === "easing" ? "down" : null))}`}>
|
||
<div className={`font-semibold mb-1 ${sigColor(trendDir(phase === "tightening" ? "up" : phase === "easing" ? "down" : null))}`}>
|
||
Phase {phaseLabel(phase)}
|
||
</div>
|
||
<p className="text-slate-400 leading-relaxed">
|
||
{phase === "tightening" && "Surveiller les données soutenant une poursuite du resserrement : inflation, emploi solide, PMI expansionniste."}
|
||
{phase === "easing" && "Surveiller les données justifiant des baisses : désinflation, ralentissement du marché de l'emploi, PMI en contraction."}
|
||
{phase === "hawkish_pause" && "Surveiller les données qui pourraient forcer la main : regain d'inflation ou au contraire fort ralentissement."}
|
||
{phase === "dovish_pause" && "Surveiller les signes de reprise permettant une normalisation de la politique monétaire."}
|
||
{phase === "transition" && "Phase de transition — tous les indicateurs sont importants pour déterminer la direction future."}
|
||
</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
{/* Données clés selon phase */}
|
||
<MacroBlock title={phase === "easing" || phase === "dovish_pause" ? "Données Assouplissement" : "Données Resserrement"}>
|
||
{(phase === "easing" || phase === "dovish_pause")
|
||
? <>
|
||
<FocusRow importance="critical"><IRow label="Taux de chômage" ind={inds?.unemployment ?? null} unit="%" invertSurprise consensus={fc?.unemployment ?? null} /></FocusRow>
|
||
<FocusRow importance="critical"><IRow label="Variation emploi" ind={inds?.employment ?? null} unit="k" consensus={fc?.employment ?? null} /></FocusRow>
|
||
<FocusRow importance="high"><IRow label="PIB (QoQ%)" ind={inds?.gdp ?? null} unit="%" consensus={fc?.gdp ?? null} /></FocusRow>
|
||
<FocusRow importance="high"><IRow label="PMI Composite" ind={inds?.pmiComposite ?? null} consensus={fc?.pmiComposite ?? null} /></FocusRow>
|
||
<FocusRow importance="medium"><IRow label="Retail Sales" ind={inds?.retailSales ?? null} unit="%" consensus={fc?.retailSales ?? null} /></FocusRow>
|
||
</>
|
||
: <>
|
||
<FocusRow importance="critical"><IRow label="CPI MoM" ind={inds?.cpiMoM ?? null} unit="%" consensus={fc?.cpiMoM ?? null} /></FocusRow>
|
||
<FocusRow importance="critical"><IRow label="Core CPI YoY" ind={inds?.cpiCore ?? null} unit="%" consensus={fc?.cpiCore ?? null} /></FocusRow>
|
||
<FocusRow importance="critical"><IRow label="Inflation Rate YoY" ind={inds?.cpiYoY ?? null} unit="%" consensus={fc?.cpi ?? null} /></FocusRow>
|
||
<FocusRow importance="high"><IRow label="PMI Services" ind={inds?.pmiServices ?? null} consensus={fc?.pmiSvc ?? null} /></FocusRow>
|
||
<FocusRow importance="high"><IRow label="Variation emploi" ind={inds?.employment ?? null} unit="k" consensus={fc?.employment ?? null} /></FocusRow>
|
||
</>
|
||
}
|
||
</MacroBlock>
|
||
|
||
{/* Autres indicateurs (référence) */}
|
||
<MacroBlock title="Référence (autres données)">
|
||
{(phase === "easing" || phase === "dovish_pause")
|
||
? <>
|
||
<FocusRow importance="medium"><IRow label="CPI MoM" ind={inds?.cpiMoM ?? null} unit="%" /></FocusRow>
|
||
<FocusRow importance="medium"><IRow label="Core CPI YoY" ind={inds?.cpiCore ?? null} unit="%" /></FocusRow>
|
||
<FocusRow importance="medium"><IRow label="PPI MoM" ind={inds?.ppiMoM ?? null} unit="%" /></FocusRow>
|
||
</>
|
||
: <>
|
||
<FocusRow importance="medium"><IRow label="Taux de chômage" ind={inds?.unemployment ?? null} unit="%" invertSurprise /></FocusRow>
|
||
<FocusRow importance="medium"><IRow label="PIB (QoQ%)" ind={inds?.gdp ?? null} unit="%" /></FocusRow>
|
||
<FocusRow importance="medium"><IRow label="Retail Sales" ind={inds?.retailSales ?? null} unit="%" /></FocusRow>
|
||
</>
|
||
}
|
||
</MacroBlock>
|
||
|
||
{/* Taux directeur */}
|
||
<MacroBlock title="Politique Monétaire">
|
||
<IRow label="Taux directeur" ind={inds?.policyRate ?? null} unit="%" consensus={rateConsensus} />
|
||
{yield10Y !== null && (
|
||
<div className="flex items-center justify-between text-[12px]">
|
||
<div className="flex items-center gap-1.5">
|
||
<span className="text-slate-600">→</span>
|
||
<span className="text-slate-400">10Y Yield</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<span className="font-semibold text-slate-200 tabular-nums">{yield10Y.toFixed(2)}%</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
)}
|
||
</MacroBlock>
|
||
</>
|
||
)}
|
||
|
||
</motion.div>
|
||
</AnimatePresence>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
);
|
||
}
|