mirror of
https://github.com/caty21/forex-dashboard.git
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caty21
bcc30ed5ba
When sync is active, clicking any tab/indicator on any card propagates to all other cards (overview/mispricing/focus + ois/cot/sent + mon/infl/cro/empl). Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
1774 lines
102 KiB
TypeScript
1774 lines
102 KiB
TypeScript
"use client";
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import { useEffect, useRef, useState, useCallback, useMemo } from "react";
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import { motion, AnimatePresence } from "framer-motion";
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import {
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TrendingUp, TrendingDown, Minus, Loader2, Database,
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BarChart2, Activity, Target, Zap, Eye, Layers,
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ChevronRight, ArrowUpRight, ArrowDownRight, AlertTriangle, Info,
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} from "lucide-react";
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import {
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AreaChart, Area, LineChart, Line, BarChart, Bar, Cell,
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ResponsiveContainer, Tooltip, XAxis, YAxis, ReferenceLine,
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} from "recharts";
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import { CURRENCY_META, COUNTRY_PROFILES } from "@/lib/constants";
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import { biasLabel, calcMacroScore } from "@/lib/scoring";
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import { saveCache, loadCache, formatCacheDate } from "@/lib/localCache";
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import type { Currency, BiasPhase, RateExpectation, MacroSection } from "@/lib/types";
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import type { CBRatePath, ILWeeklyDelta } from "@/lib/rateprobability";
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import type { SentimentEntry, CotEntry } from "@/lib/types";
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import type { CalendarEvent } from "@/app/api/calendar/route";
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import NarrativeButton from "./NarrativeButton";
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// ─── Types internes ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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interface Ind {
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value: number | null; prev: number | null; surprise: number | null;
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trend: "up"|"down"|"flat"|null; lastUpdated: string | null;
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consensus?: number | null;
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}
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interface MacroForecasts {
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cpi: number | null; cpiSurprise: number | null;
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cpiCore: number | null; cpiMoM: number | null;
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cpiCoreMoM: number | null; ppiMoM: number | null;
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unemployment: number | null; unemploymentSurprise: number | null;
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pmiMfg: number | null; pmiMfgSurprise: number | null;
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pmiSvc: number | null; pmiSvcSurprise: number | null;
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pmiComposite: number | null; pmiCompositeSurprise: number | null;
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retailSales: number | null; retailSalesSurprise: number | null;
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gdp: number | null; gdpSurprise: number | null;
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employment: number | null; employmentSurprise: number | null;
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}
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interface MacroData {
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currency: string;
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indicators: Record<string, Ind | null>;
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forecasts?: MacroForecasts | null;
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fetchedAt: string;
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}
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interface Props {
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currency: Currency;
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expectations: Record<string, unknown> | null;
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yields: { yields: Record<string, number | null>; spreads: Record<string, number | null> } | null;
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sentiment: SentimentEntry | null;
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cot: CotEntry | null;
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ratePath: CBRatePath | null;
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onDivergenceUpdate: (currency: Currency, score: number) => void;
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calEvents?: CalendarEvent[];
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macroSection?: MacroSection;
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syncMacroSlide?: "mon" | "infl" | "cro" | "empl";
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onMacroSlideChange?: (id: "mon" | "infl" | "cro" | "empl") => void;
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syncCardTab?: "overview" | "mispricing" | "focus";
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onCardTabChange?: (id: "overview" | "mispricing" | "focus") => void;
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syncSignauxSlide?: "ois" | "cot" | "sent";
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onSignauxSlideChange?: (id: "ois" | "cot" | "sent") => void;
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}
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type Tab = "overview" | "mispricing" | "focus";
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type SignalDir = "bullish" | "bearish" | "neutral" | "warning";
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type SliderBlock = "news" | "ois" | "cot" | "signal";
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// ─── Helpers de style ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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function phaseStyle(p: BiasPhase) {
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if (p === "tightening") return "bg-red-500/15 text-red-400 border-red-500/30";
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if (p === "easing") return "bg-sky-500/15 text-sky-400 border-sky-500/30";
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if (p === "hawkish_pause") return "bg-amber-500/15 text-amber-400 border-amber-500/30";
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if (p === "dovish_pause") return "bg-blue-500/15 text-blue-400 border-blue-500/30";
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return "bg-slate-500/15 text-slate-400 border-slate-500/30";
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}
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function phaseLabel(p: BiasPhase) {
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if (p === "tightening") return "Resserrement";
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if (p === "easing") return "Assouplissement";
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if (p === "hawkish_pause") return "Pause Hawkish";
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if (p === "dovish_pause") return "Pause Dovish";
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return "Transition";
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}
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// ─── Phase depuis OIS (source primaire) ──────────────────────────────────────
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// Ordre de priorité :
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// 1. Resserrement actif : proba de hausse >60% ET bps annuels >+15
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// 2. Assouplissement actif: proba de coupe >60% OU bps annuels <−40
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// 3. Pause dovish : bps annuels ≤ −15 (coupes attendues, pas imminentes)
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// 4. Pause hawkish : bps annuels ≥ +20 OU biais sans coupe modérément pricé
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// 5. Transition : anticipations neutres (fin de cycle, CB en attente)
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function computePhaseFromOIS(ratePath: CBRatePath | null): BiasPhase | null {
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if (!ratePath?.peakMeeting) return null;
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const yearEndBps = ratePath.yearEndImplied !== null
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? Math.round((ratePath.yearEndImplied - ratePath.currentRate) * 100)
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: 0;
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const { probMovePct, probIsCut } = ratePath.peakMeeting;
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if (!probIsCut && probMovePct > 60 && yearEndBps >= 15) return "tightening";
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if (probIsCut && (probMovePct > 60 || yearEndBps <= -40)) return "easing";
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if (yearEndBps <= -15) return "dovish_pause";
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if (yearEndBps >= 20 || (!probIsCut && probMovePct > 40 && yearEndBps > 5)) return "hawkish_pause";
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return "transition";
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}
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// ─── Description contextuelle de la phase (avec vrais chiffres OIS) ──────────
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function phaseDescription(phase: BiasPhase, ratePath: CBRatePath | null): string {
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const yearEndBps = (ratePath?.yearEndImplied != null && ratePath?.currentRate != null)
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? Math.round((ratePath.yearEndImplied - ratePath.currentRate) * 100)
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: null;
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const peak = ratePath?.peakMeeting;
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const bpsStr = yearEndBps !== null ? `${yearEndBps > 0 ? "+" : ""}${yearEndBps}bps fin d'an` : "";
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const probStr = peak ? `${peak.probMovePct.toFixed(0)}% de ${peak.probIsCut ? "coupe" : "hausse"} (${peak.label})` : "";
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switch (phase) {
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case "tightening":
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return `Cycle de resserrement actif — ${probStr}${bpsStr ? ` · ${bpsStr}` : ""}. Surveiller : inflation, emploi solide, PMI > 50.`;
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case "easing":
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return `Cycle d'assouplissement — ${probStr}${bpsStr ? ` · ${bpsStr}` : ""}. Surveiller : désinflation, ralentissement emploi, PMI < 50.`;
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case "dovish_pause":
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return `Pause dovish${bpsStr ? ` — ${bpsStr} anticipés` : ""}. Prochaine réunion stable mais coupes attendues plus tard. Surveiller : timing désinflation.`;
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case "hawkish_pause":
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return `Pause hawkish${bpsStr ? ` — ${bpsStr} anticipés` : ""}. CB en attente. Surveiller : regain d'inflation ou fort ralentissement.`;
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case "transition":
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return `Anticipations neutres${bpsStr ? ` (${bpsStr})` : ""}. CB données-dépendantes — tous les indicateurs comptent.`;
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}
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}
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function scoreDir(score: number): SignalDir {
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if (score >= 3) return "bullish";
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if (score <= -3) return "bearish";
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return "neutral";
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}
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function sigColor(d: SignalDir) {
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if (d === "bullish") return "text-emerald-400";
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if (d === "bearish") return "text-red-400";
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if (d === "warning") return "text-amber-400";
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return "text-slate-400";
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}
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function sigBg(d: SignalDir) {
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if (d === "bullish") return "bg-emerald-500/10 border-emerald-500/20";
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if (d === "bearish") return "bg-red-500/10 border-red-500/20";
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if (d === "warning") return "bg-amber-500/10 border-amber-500/20";
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return "bg-slate-500/10 border-slate-500/20";
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}
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function sigBar(d: SignalDir) {
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if (d === "bullish") return "bg-emerald-500";
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if (d === "bearish") return "bg-red-500";
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if (d === "warning") return "bg-amber-500";
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return "bg-slate-500";
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}
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function computeESI(inds: Record<string, Ind | null> | undefined): number | null {
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if (!inds) return null;
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const invertedKeys = new Set(["unemployment"]);
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const checkKeys = ["cpiYoY", "cpiCore", "pmiMfg", "pmiServices", "gdp", "retailSales", "cpiMoM", "ppiMoM", "employment"];
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const signs: number[] = [];
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for (const key of checkKeys) {
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const s = inds[key]?.surprise;
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if (s === null || s === undefined) continue;
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const sign = s > 0 ? 1 : s < 0 ? -1 : 0;
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signs.push(invertedKeys.has(key) ? -sign : sign);
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}
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if (signs.length === 0) return null;
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return Math.round(signs.reduce((a, v) => a + v, 0) / signs.length * 100);
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}
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function SurpriseIndexBadge({ value }: { value: number }) {
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const color = value > 20 ? "text-emerald-400" : value < -20 ? "text-red-400" : "text-slate-400";
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const bgBar = value > 20 ? "bg-emerald-500" : value < -20 ? "bg-red-500" : "bg-slate-500";
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return (
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<div className="flex items-center gap-1.5">
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<span className="text-[10px] text-slate-600" title={"ESI — Economic Surprise Index\n\nCalcul : 9 indicateurs (CPI YoY, Core CPI, CPI MoM, PPI MoM, PMI Mfg, PMI Svc, GDP, Retail Sales, Employment). Pour chacun : actual > forecast → +1 ; actual < forecast → −1 ; égal → 0. Le chômage est inversé (hausse = mauvaise nouvelle → −1). Résultat = moyenne des signes × 100.\n\nPlage : −100 à +100. Seuils : > +20 vert (majorité de beats) ; < −20 rouge (majorité de misses).\n\nLimites : non pondéré (un petit beat = un gros beat), non daté (une donnée vieille compte autant qu'une récente)."}>ESI</span>
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<div className="w-12 h-1 bg-slate-700 rounded-full overflow-hidden">
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<div className={`h-full ${bgBar} rounded-full`} style={{ width: `${Math.min(100, Math.abs(value))}%` }} />
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</div>
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<span className={`text-[10px] font-bold tabular-nums ${color}`}>{value > 0 ? "+" : ""}{value}</span>
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</div>
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);
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}
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function FocusRow({ importance, children }: { importance: "critical" | "high" | "medium"; children: React.ReactNode }) {
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const dot = importance === "critical" ? "bg-red-500" : importance === "high" ? "bg-amber-500" : "bg-slate-500";
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return (
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<div className="flex items-start gap-2">
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<span className={`w-1.5 h-1.5 rounded-full mt-[7px] shrink-0 ${dot}`} />
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<div className="flex-1 min-w-0">{children}</div>
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</div>
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);
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}
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// ─── Profils géopolitiques statiques ─────────────────────────────────────────
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const ENERGY_PROFILE: Record<string, {
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type: "export" | "import" | "neutre";
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desc: string;
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products: string[];
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}> = {
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USD: { type: "export", desc: "1er producteur mondial pétrole + gaz (EIA). Exportateur net depuis 2019.", products: ["Pétrole", "GNL", "Blé", "Soja", "Maïs"] },
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EUR: { type: "import", desc: "Import ~75% énergie (MENA, Russie réduit). Très sensible aux chocs pétrole.", products: ["Blé (FR, DE)", "Machines industrielles"] },
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GBP: { type: "neutre", desc: "Mer du Nord en déclin. Production ≈ consommation (~neutre).", products: ["Services financiers"] },
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JPY: { type: "import", desc: "Import ~90% énergie. 3ème importateur GNL mondial. Très sensible au Détroit d'Hormuz.", products: ["Électronique", "Voitures"] },
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CHF: { type: "import", desc: "Import ~75% énergie (gaz naturel Europe, pétrole OPEP).", products: [] },
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CAD: { type: "export", desc: "Pétrole sables bitumineux (Alberta). Export ~4 Mb/j.", products: ["Pétrole", "Gaz naturel", "Blé", "Potasse", "Bois d'œuvre"] },
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AUD: { type: "export", desc: "2ème exportateur GNL mondial. Export charbon thermique + métallurgique.", products: ["Minerai de fer", "GNL", "Charbon", "Or", "Blé", "Cuivre"] },
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NZD: { type: "import", desc: "Import pétrole. Renouvelables ~85% élec (hydro). Indépendant localement.", products: ["Lait / Produits laitiers", "Viande bovine", "Bois", "Laine"] },
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};
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function trendDir(t: "up"|"down"|"flat"|null): SignalDir {
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if (t === "up") return "bullish";
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if (t === "down") return "bearish";
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return "neutral";
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}
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// ─── RpArrow : flèche de tendance pour probabilités de taux (delta IL hebdo) ──
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// delta = valeur_actuelle - valeur_précédent_article
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// isBearishIfUp = true si une hausse du delta est baissière pour la devise
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function RpArrow({
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delta, isBearishIfPositive, suffix, strongT, modT,
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}: {
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delta: number; isBearishIfPositive: boolean; suffix: string; strongT: number; modT: number;
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}) {
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const abs = Math.abs(delta);
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if (abs < modT) return null;
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const strong = abs >= strongT;
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const up = delta > 0;
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const bearish = isBearishIfPositive ? up : !up;
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const color = bearish ? "text-sky-400" : "text-amber-400";
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const arrow = strong ? (up ? "↑↑" : "↓↓") : (up ? "↑" : "↓");
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return (
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<span className={`font-bold ${color}`}>
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{arrow}{up ? "+" : ""}{Math.abs(Math.round(abs * 10) / 10)}{suffix}
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</span>
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);
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}
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// ─── Sous-composants ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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function MacroBlock({ title, children, action }: { title: string; children: React.ReactNode; action?: React.ReactNode }) {
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return (
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<div className="bg-slate-800/40 rounded-xl border border-slate-700/30 p-3 space-y-1.5">
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<div className="flex items-center justify-between mb-2">
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<div className="text-[10px] text-slate-500 uppercase tracking-wider font-semibold">{title}</div>
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{action}
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</div>
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{children}
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</div>
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);
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}
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function IRow({
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label, ind, unit = "", consensus, surpriseVsCons, tooltip, info, invertSurprise = false, isNew = false,
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}: {
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label: string; ind: Ind | null; unit?: string;
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consensus?: number | null; surpriseVsCons?: number | null;
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tooltip?: string | null; info?: string | null; invertSurprise?: boolean; isNew?: boolean;
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}) {
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const value = ind?.value ?? null;
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const prev = ind?.prev ?? null;
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const fmt = (v: number | null) => v !== null ? `${v.toFixed(2)}${unit}` : "—";
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const s = ind?.surprise ?? null;
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const effS = invertSurprise && s !== null ? -s : s;
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const valColor = effS === null ? "text-slate-200"
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: effS > 0 ? "text-emerald-400"
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: effS < 0 ? "text-red-400"
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: "text-slate-500";
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const effSurpr = invertSurprise && surpriseVsCons !== null ? -(surpriseVsCons ?? 0) : surpriseVsCons;
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const surpriseCls = effSurpr == null ? "" : effSurpr > 0 ? "text-emerald-500" : effSurpr < 0 ? "text-red-500" : "text-slate-500";
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const surpriseArr = effSurpr == null ? "" : effSurpr > 0 ? "▲" : effSurpr < 0 ? "▼" : "▬";
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return (
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<div className="space-y-0.5">
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<div className="flex items-center justify-between text-[12px]">
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<div className="flex items-center gap-1.5 min-w-0">
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<span className="text-slate-600 shrink-0">→</span>
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<span className="text-slate-400 truncate">{label}</span>
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{isNew && (
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<span className="text-[7px] font-bold px-1 py-px rounded bg-amber-500/20 text-amber-400 border border-amber-500/30 shrink-0 animate-pulse">NEW</span>
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)}
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{info && (
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<span className="relative group/info inline-flex shrink-0 cursor-help">
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<span className="inline-flex items-center justify-center w-3 h-3 rounded-full border border-slate-700 text-slate-500 text-[7px] font-bold leading-none">i</span>
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<span className="pointer-events-none absolute bottom-full left-0 mb-1.5 w-52 px-2 py-1.5 rounded-md bg-slate-950 text-slate-300 text-[10px] leading-snug opacity-0 group-hover/info:opacity-100 transition-opacity duration-150 z-50 shadow-lg whitespace-normal border border-slate-700">
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{info}
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</span>
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</span>
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)}
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</div>
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{tooltip ? (
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<span className="relative group/val cursor-default shrink-0">
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<span className={`font-semibold tabular-nums ${valColor}`}>{fmt(value)}</span>
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<span className="pointer-events-none absolute bottom-full right-0 mb-1.5 w-52 px-2 py-1.5 rounded-md bg-slate-950 text-slate-300 text-[10px] leading-snug opacity-0 group-hover/val:opacity-100 transition-opacity duration-150 z-50 shadow-lg whitespace-normal border border-slate-700">
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{tooltip}
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</span>
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</span>
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) : (
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<span className={`font-semibold tabular-nums shrink-0 ${valColor}`}>{fmt(value)}</span>
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)}
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</div>
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<div className="flex items-center justify-between pl-4 text-[10px] text-slate-600">
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<span>Préc. <span className="text-slate-500">{fmt(prev)}</span></span>
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{surpriseVsCons !== null && surpriseVsCons !== undefined ? (
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<span className={`font-medium ${surpriseCls}`}>
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Surpr. {surpriseArr}{(effSurpr ?? 0) > 0 ? "+" : ""}{(effSurpr ?? 0).toFixed(2)}{unit}
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</span>
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) : consensus !== null && consensus !== undefined ? (
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<span>Cons. <span className="text-blue-400 font-medium">{fmt(consensus)}</span></span>
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) : null}
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</div>
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</div>
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);
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}
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function SignalBar({ strength, direction }: { strength: number; direction: SignalDir }) {
|
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return (
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<div className="relative w-full h-1.5 bg-slate-700/50 rounded-full overflow-hidden">
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<motion.div
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className={`absolute left-0 top-0 h-full rounded-full ${sigBar(direction)}`}
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initial={{ width: 0 }}
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animate={{ width: `${strength}%` }}
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transition={{ duration: 0.5, ease: "easeOut" }}
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/>
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</div>
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);
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}
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// ─── OIS Enhanced Block ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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// Bloc OIS enrichi : summary (Current Rate → Expected, Next Meeting, Most Likely/Alt)
|
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// + 3 onglets graphiques : Rate Curve / Implied Points / Scénarios
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function OISEnhancedBlock({ ratePath }: { ratePath: CBRatePath }) {
|
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const [chartTab, setChartTab] = useState<"curve" | "implied" | "scenarios">("curve");
|
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const { currentRate, meetings, yearEndImplied, ilDelta, ilCurrent } = ratePath;
|
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if (!meetings.length) return null;
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const m0 = meetings[0];
|
||
const bpsYE = yearEndImplied !== null ? Math.round((yearEndImplied - currentRate) * 100) : null;
|
||
const bpsCls = bpsYE === null ? "text-slate-400" : bpsYE < 0 ? "text-sky-400" : bpsYE > 0 ? "text-red-400" : "text-slate-400";
|
||
|
||
// Expected move at next meeting
|
||
const isMoveExpected = m0.probMovePct >= 50;
|
||
const moveLabel = isMoveExpected ? (m0.probIsCut ? "Cut" : "Hike") : "Hold";
|
||
const moveCls = isMoveExpected ? (m0.probIsCut ? "text-sky-400" : "text-red-400") : "text-slate-400";
|
||
const moveIcon = isMoveExpected ? (m0.probIsCut ? "↓" : "↑") : "=";
|
||
|
||
// Probability-weighted expected bps at next meeting
|
||
const expectedBps = Math.round((m0.probMovePct / 100) * (m0.impliedRate - currentRate) * 10000) / 100;
|
||
|
||
// Most Likely / Alternative scenarios at next meeting
|
||
const mlIsMove = m0.probMovePct >= 50;
|
||
const mlRate = mlIsMove ? m0.impliedRate : currentRate;
|
||
const mlProb = mlIsMove ? m0.probMovePct : 100 - m0.probMovePct;
|
||
const altRate = mlIsMove ? currentRate : m0.impliedRate;
|
||
const altProb = mlIsMove ? 100 - m0.probMovePct : m0.probMovePct;
|
||
const altIsMove = !mlIsMove;
|
||
|
||
// Chart data (limit to 10 meetings)
|
||
const chartMeetings = meetings.slice(0, 10);
|
||
|
||
const rateCurveData = chartMeetings.map(m => ({
|
||
label: m.label,
|
||
current: +m.impliedRate.toFixed(3),
|
||
...(ilDelta ? { weekAgo: +(m.impliedRate + ilDelta.bpsDelta / 100).toFixed(3) } : {}),
|
||
}));
|
||
|
||
const impliedPtsData = chartMeetings.map(m => ({
|
||
label: m.label,
|
||
bps: +m.changeBps.toFixed(1),
|
||
}));
|
||
|
||
const scenariosData = meetings.slice(0, 8).map(m => ({
|
||
label: m.label,
|
||
dateIso: m.dateIso,
|
||
rate: +m.impliedRate.toFixed(3),
|
||
prob: m.probMovePct,
|
||
isCut: m.probIsCut,
|
||
}));
|
||
|
||
// Y-axis domain for Rate Curve
|
||
const allRates = rateCurveData.flatMap(d => [d.current, d.weekAgo].filter((v): v is number => v !== undefined));
|
||
allRates.push(currentRate);
|
||
const minR = Math.min(...allRates);
|
||
const maxR = Math.max(...allRates);
|
||
const yMargin = Math.max(0.05, (maxR - minR) * 0.25);
|
||
|
||
return (
|
||
<div className="rounded-xl border border-slate-700/30 overflow-hidden">
|
||
|
||
{/* ── Summary header ────────────────────────────────────────────────── */}
|
||
<div className="bg-slate-800/40 px-3 pt-2.5 pb-2">
|
||
{/* Title */}
|
||
<div className="flex items-center justify-between mb-2">
|
||
<div className="flex items-center gap-2">
|
||
<span className="text-[10px] text-slate-400 uppercase tracking-wider font-bold">OIS · Futures</span>
|
||
<span className="text-[8px] font-bold px-1.5 py-0.5 rounded bg-emerald-500/15 text-emerald-400 border border-emerald-500/25">LIVE</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<span className="text-[9px] text-slate-600">au {ratePath.asOf}</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
{/* 3-column rates */}
|
||
<div className="grid grid-cols-3 gap-1 mb-2">
|
||
<div>
|
||
<div className="text-[8px] text-slate-600">Current Rate</div>
|
||
<div className="text-[15px] font-bold text-slate-200 tabular-nums">{currentRate.toFixed(2)}%</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<div className="text-[8px] text-slate-600">Expected</div>
|
||
<div className={`text-[15px] font-bold tabular-nums ${bpsCls}`}>{yearEndImplied?.toFixed(2) ?? "—"}%</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div className="text-right">
|
||
<div className="text-[8px] text-slate-600">Next Meeting</div>
|
||
<div className="text-[11px] font-semibold text-slate-300">{m0.label}</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
{/* Expected Move + Change bps + Δ fin an */}
|
||
<div className="flex items-center gap-3 mb-2">
|
||
<div>
|
||
<div className="text-[8px] text-slate-600">Expected Move</div>
|
||
<div className={`flex items-center gap-0.5 text-[12px] font-bold ${moveCls}`}>
|
||
<span>{moveIcon}</span><span>{moveLabel}</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<div className="text-[8px] text-slate-600">Change (bps)</div>
|
||
<div className={`text-[12px] font-bold tabular-nums ${bpsCls}`}>
|
||
{expectedBps > 0 ? "+" : ""}{expectedBps.toFixed(2)}
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
{bpsYE !== null && (
|
||
<div className="ml-auto text-right">
|
||
<div className="text-[8px] text-slate-600">Δ fin an</div>
|
||
<div className={`text-[18px] font-black tabular-nums ${bpsCls}`}>
|
||
{bpsYE > 0 ? "+" : ""}{bpsYE}<span className="text-[9px] ml-0.5">bps</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
)}
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
{/* Most Likely / Alternative probability bars */}
|
||
<div className="space-y-1">
|
||
<div className="flex items-center gap-1.5">
|
||
<span className="text-[8px] text-slate-600 w-14 shrink-0">Most Likely</span>
|
||
<span className={`text-[9px] font-bold w-3 text-center shrink-0 ${mlIsMove ? moveCls : "text-slate-400"}`}>{mlIsMove ? moveIcon : "="}</span>
|
||
<span className="text-[9px] font-bold text-slate-200 tabular-nums w-10 shrink-0">{mlRate.toFixed(2)}%</span>
|
||
<div className="flex-1 bg-slate-700/40 rounded-full h-1.5 overflow-hidden">
|
||
<div
|
||
className={`h-full rounded-full ${mlIsMove ? (m0.probIsCut ? "bg-sky-500" : "bg-red-500") : "bg-amber-500/70"}`}
|
||
style={{ width: `${mlProb}%` }}
|
||
/>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<span className="text-[8px] font-semibold text-slate-400 w-7 text-right shrink-0">{Math.round(mlProb)}%</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div className="flex items-center gap-1.5">
|
||
<span className="text-[8px] text-slate-600 w-14 shrink-0">Alternative</span>
|
||
<span className={`text-[9px] font-bold w-3 text-center shrink-0 ${altIsMove ? moveCls : "text-slate-500"}`}>{altIsMove ? moveIcon : "="}</span>
|
||
<span className="text-[9px] font-bold text-slate-500 tabular-nums w-10 shrink-0">{altRate.toFixed(2)}%</span>
|
||
<div className="flex-1 bg-slate-700/40 rounded-full h-1.5 overflow-hidden">
|
||
<div
|
||
className={`h-full rounded-full ${altIsMove ? (m0.probIsCut ? "bg-sky-400/40" : "bg-red-400/40") : "bg-slate-500/40"}`}
|
||
style={{ width: `${altProb}%` }}
|
||
/>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<span className="text-[8px] font-semibold text-slate-600 w-7 text-right shrink-0">{Math.round(altProb)}%</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
{/* ── Chart section ─────────────────────────────────────────────────── */}
|
||
<div className="border-t border-slate-700/40 px-3 pt-2 pb-2">
|
||
{/* Tab buttons */}
|
||
<div className="flex gap-1 mb-2">
|
||
{([ { id: "curve" as const, label: "Rate Curve" }, { id: "implied" as const, label: "Implied Pts" }, { id: "scenarios" as const, label: "Scénarios" } ]).map(t => (
|
||
<button
|
||
key={t.id}
|
||
onClick={() => setChartTab(t.id)}
|
||
className={`text-[9px] font-semibold px-2 py-0.5 rounded-full border transition-all ${
|
||
chartTab === t.id
|
||
? "bg-slate-700 border-slate-500 text-white"
|
||
: "border-slate-700/60 text-slate-500 hover:text-slate-300"
|
||
}`}
|
||
>
|
||
{t.label}
|
||
</button>
|
||
))}
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
{/* Chart 1 — Implied Interest Rate Curve */}
|
||
{chartTab === "curve" && (
|
||
<div>
|
||
<div className="text-[8px] text-slate-600 mb-1">
|
||
Courbe de taux implicite{ilDelta ? " · blanc = actuel · bleu = sem. préc. (approx)" : ""}
|
||
</div>
|
||
<ResponsiveContainer width="100%" height={120}>
|
||
<LineChart data={rateCurveData} margin={{ top: 5, right: 5, left: -15, bottom: 0 }}>
|
||
<XAxis dataKey="label" tick={{ fontSize: 7, fill: "#64748b" }} axisLine={false} tickLine={false} interval="preserveStartEnd" />
|
||
<YAxis tick={{ fontSize: 7, fill: "#64748b" }} axisLine={false} tickLine={false} width={32}
|
||
domain={[minR - yMargin, maxR + yMargin]}
|
||
tickFormatter={(v: number) => v.toFixed(2)} />
|
||
<Tooltip
|
||
contentStyle={{ background: "#0f172a", border: "1px solid #334155", borderRadius: 6, fontSize: 9 }}
|
||
formatter={(v: number, name: string) => [`${v.toFixed(3)}%`, name === "current" ? "Actuel" : "Sem. préc."]}
|
||
/>
|
||
<Line type="monotone" dataKey="current" stroke="#e2e8f0" strokeWidth={1.5} dot={{ r: 2, fill: "#e2e8f0" }} name="current" />
|
||
{ilDelta && (
|
||
<Line type="monotone" dataKey="weekAgo" stroke="#38bdf8" strokeWidth={1.5} dot={{ r: 2, fill: "#38bdf8" }} strokeDasharray="4 2" name="weekAgo" />
|
||
)}
|
||
</LineChart>
|
||
</ResponsiveContainer>
|
||
</div>
|
||
)}
|
||
|
||
{/* Chart 2 — Implied Points (bps cumulatifs par réunion) */}
|
||
{chartTab === "implied" && (
|
||
<div>
|
||
<div className="text-[8px] text-slate-600 mb-1">Implied Points (bps par réunion)</div>
|
||
<ResponsiveContainer width="100%" height={120}>
|
||
<BarChart data={impliedPtsData} margin={{ top: 5, right: 5, left: -15, bottom: 0 }}>
|
||
<XAxis dataKey="label" tick={{ fontSize: 7, fill: "#64748b" }} axisLine={false} tickLine={false} interval="preserveStartEnd" />
|
||
<YAxis tick={{ fontSize: 7, fill: "#64748b" }} axisLine={false} tickLine={false} width={36}
|
||
tickFormatter={(v: number) => `${v}bps`} />
|
||
<ReferenceLine y={0} stroke="#334155" strokeWidth={0.5} />
|
||
<Tooltip
|
||
contentStyle={{ background: "#0f172a", border: "1px solid #334155", borderRadius: 6, fontSize: 9 }}
|
||
formatter={(v: number) => [`${v > 0 ? "+" : ""}${v.toFixed(1)}bps`, "Implied"]}
|
||
/>
|
||
<Bar dataKey="bps" radius={[2, 2, 0, 0]}>
|
||
{impliedPtsData.map((entry, i) => (
|
||
<Cell key={i} fill={entry.bps < 0 ? "#f472b6" : entry.bps > 0 ? "#4ade80" : "#475569"} fillOpacity={0.8} />
|
||
))}
|
||
</Bar>
|
||
</BarChart>
|
||
</ResponsiveContainer>
|
||
</div>
|
||
)}
|
||
|
||
{/* Chart 3 — Scénarios : taux implicite par réunion (barres horizontales) */}
|
||
{chartTab === "scenarios" && (
|
||
<div>
|
||
<div className="text-[8px] text-slate-600 mb-1.5">Taux implicite par réunion</div>
|
||
<div className="space-y-1">
|
||
{(() => {
|
||
const maxR2 = Math.max(...scenariosData.map(d => d.rate), currentRate);
|
||
const minR2 = Math.min(...scenariosData.map(d => d.rate), currentRate) - 0.05;
|
||
const range = maxR2 - minR2 || 0.25;
|
||
return scenariosData.map(d => {
|
||
const barW = Math.max(5, Math.min(100, ((d.rate - minR2) / range) * 100));
|
||
const isDown = d.rate < currentRate - 0.001;
|
||
const isUp = d.rate > currentRate + 0.001;
|
||
const barCl = isDown ? "bg-sky-500/70" : isUp ? "bg-red-500/70" : "bg-amber-500/60";
|
||
const isPeak = ratePath.peakMeeting?.dateIso === d.dateIso;
|
||
return (
|
||
<div key={d.label} className="flex items-center gap-1.5">
|
||
<span className={`text-[8px] w-9 shrink-0 ${isPeak ? "text-amber-300 font-bold" : "text-slate-600"}`}>
|
||
{d.label}{isPeak ? "●" : ""}
|
||
</span>
|
||
<div className="flex-1 bg-slate-700/30 rounded-full h-2.5 overflow-hidden">
|
||
<div className={`h-full ${barCl} rounded-full`} style={{ width: `${barW}%` }} />
|
||
</div>
|
||
<span className="text-[8px] font-mono text-slate-300 w-10 text-right shrink-0">{d.rate.toFixed(2)}%</span>
|
||
<span className="text-[7px] text-slate-600 w-6 text-right shrink-0">{d.prob.toFixed(0)}%</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
);
|
||
});
|
||
})()}
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
)}
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
{/* ── IL footer (analyste InvestingLive) ────────────────────────────── */}
|
||
{ilCurrent && (
|
||
<div className="border-t border-slate-700/40 bg-slate-900/30 px-3 py-1.5 flex items-center justify-between gap-2">
|
||
<span className="text-[9px] text-slate-600 italic shrink-0">
|
||
Analyste · {ilCurrent.articleDate} ·{" "}
|
||
<span className={ilCurrent.isCut ? "text-sky-400" : ilCurrent.isNoChange ? "text-slate-400" : "text-red-400"}>
|
||
{ilCurrent.isNoChange ? "Hold" : `${ilCurrent.isCut ? "" : "+"}${ilCurrent.bpsYearEnd}bps`}
|
||
</span>
|
||
</span>
|
||
{ratePath.ilDelta && (Math.abs(ratePath.ilDelta.probDelta) >= 3 || Math.abs(ratePath.ilDelta.bpsDelta) >= 5) && (
|
||
<span className="text-[9px] text-slate-500 flex items-center gap-1 shrink-0">
|
||
Δsem:
|
||
<RpArrow delta={ratePath.ilDelta.probDelta} isBearishIfPositive={ratePath.ilDelta.isCut} suffix="%" strongT={10} modT={3} />
|
||
<RpArrow delta={ratePath.ilDelta.bpsDelta} isBearishIfPositive={true} suffix="bps" strongT={25} modT={5} />
|
||
</span>
|
||
)}
|
||
</div>
|
||
)}
|
||
</div>
|
||
);
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
// ─── Composant principal ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||
|
||
export default function CurrencyCard({
|
||
currency, expectations, yields, sentiment, cot, ratePath, onDivergenceUpdate,
|
||
calEvents, macroSection, syncMacroSlide, onMacroSlideChange,
|
||
syncCardTab, onCardTabChange, syncSignauxSlide, onSignauxSlideChange,
|
||
}: Props) {
|
||
const meta = CURRENCY_META[currency];
|
||
|
||
// ── State ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||
const [data, setData] = useState<MacroData | null>(null);
|
||
// Phase dérivée des probabilités OIS (source primaire) ou du trend FRED (fallback)
|
||
const phase = useMemo<BiasPhase>(() => {
|
||
const oisPhase = computePhaseFromOIS(ratePath);
|
||
if (oisPhase) return oisPhase;
|
||
const rateInd = data?.indicators?.policyRate;
|
||
if (rateInd?.trend === "up") return "tightening";
|
||
if (rateInd?.trend === "down") return "easing";
|
||
return "hawkish_pause";
|
||
}, [ratePath, data]);
|
||
const [loading, setLoading] = useState(true);
|
||
const [rateExp, setRateExp] = useState<RateExpectation | null>(null);
|
||
const [fromCache, setFromCache] = useState(false);
|
||
const [cacheAge, setCacheAge] = useState<string | null>(null);
|
||
const [activeTab, setActiveTab] = useState<Tab>("overview");
|
||
const [inflFilter, setInflFilter] = useState<"all" | "mom" | "yoy">("mom");
|
||
const [expandedSig, setExpandedSig] = useState<string | null>(null);
|
||
const [divergenceOpen, setDivergenceOpen] = useState(false);
|
||
const [showCotInfo, setShowCotInfo] = useState(false);
|
||
const [showAllMeetings, setShowAllMeetings] = useState(false);
|
||
const [showYield10Y, setShowYield10Y] = useState(false);
|
||
const [showRecentNews, setShowRecentNews] = useState(false);
|
||
const [showUpcoming, setShowUpcoming] = useState(false);
|
||
const [sliderBlock, setSliderBlock] = useState<SliderBlock>("ois");
|
||
const [sliderDir, setSliderDir] = useState<1|-1>(1);
|
||
type MacroSlide = "mon" | "infl" | "cro" | "empl";
|
||
type SignauxSlide = "ois" | "cot" | "sent";
|
||
const [macroSlide, setMacroSlide] = useState<MacroSlide>("mon");
|
||
const [macroSlideDir, setMacroSlideDir] = useState<1|-1>(1);
|
||
const prevSyncMacroRef = useRef<MacroSlide>(syncMacroSlide ?? "mon");
|
||
const [signauxSlide, setSignauxSlide] = useState<SignauxSlide>("ois");
|
||
const [signauxSlideDir, setSignauxSlideDir] = useState<1|-1>(1);
|
||
const prevSyncCardTabRef = useRef<Tab>(syncCardTab ?? "overview");
|
||
const prevSyncSignauxSlideRef = useRef<SignauxSlide>(syncSignauxSlide ?? "ois");
|
||
|
||
// ── Data fetch ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||
const load = useCallback(async () => {
|
||
setLoading(true);
|
||
const cacheKey = `macro_${currency}`;
|
||
try {
|
||
const res = await fetch(`/api/macro?currency=${currency}`);
|
||
if (!res.ok) throw new Error(`HTTP ${res.status}`);
|
||
const json: MacroData = await res.json();
|
||
if ("error" in json) throw new Error(String((json as Record<string,unknown>).error));
|
||
|
||
const prevCache = loadCache<MacroData>(cacheKey);
|
||
const merged: MacroData = {
|
||
...json,
|
||
indicators: {
|
||
...json.indicators,
|
||
pmiMfg: json.indicators.pmiMfg ?? prevCache?.data.indicators.pmiMfg ?? null,
|
||
pmiServices: json.indicators.pmiServices ?? prevCache?.data.indicators.pmiServices ?? null,
|
||
},
|
||
};
|
||
setData(merged);
|
||
setFromCache(false);
|
||
setCacheAge(null);
|
||
saveCache(cacheKey, merged);
|
||
} catch {
|
||
const cached = loadCache<MacroData>(cacheKey);
|
||
if (cached) {
|
||
setData(cached.data);
|
||
setFromCache(true);
|
||
setCacheAge(formatCacheDate(cached.savedAt));
|
||
}
|
||
} finally {
|
||
setLoading(false);
|
||
}
|
||
}, [currency]);
|
||
|
||
useEffect(() => { load(); }, [load]);
|
||
|
||
useEffect(() => {
|
||
if (!expectations) return;
|
||
const all = [
|
||
...((expectations.rate_hikes ?? []) as RateExpectation[]),
|
||
...((expectations.rate_cuts ?? []) as RateExpectation[]),
|
||
];
|
||
const cbShort = meta.cbShort.toLowerCase();
|
||
setRateExp(all.find((e) =>
|
||
e.cb.toLowerCase().includes(cbShort) || e.cb.toLowerCase().includes(currency.toLowerCase())
|
||
) ?? null);
|
||
}, [expectations, currency, meta.cbShort]);
|
||
|
||
// ── Computed values ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||
const inds = data?.indicators;
|
||
const fc = data?.forecasts ?? null;
|
||
|
||
const forScoring = {
|
||
policyRate: { value: inds?.policyRate?.value ?? null, prev: inds?.policyRate?.prev ?? null, consensus: null, surprise: inds?.policyRate?.surprise ?? null, trend: inds?.policyRate?.trend ?? null, lastUpdated: "" },
|
||
cpiCore: { value: inds?.cpiCore?.value ?? null, prev: inds?.cpiCore?.prev ?? null, consensus: null, surprise: inds?.cpiCore?.surprise ?? null, trend: inds?.cpiCore?.trend ?? null, lastUpdated: "" },
|
||
pmiMfg: { value: inds?.pmiMfg?.value ?? null, prev: inds?.pmiMfg?.prev ?? null, consensus: null, surprise: inds?.pmiMfg?.surprise ?? null, trend: inds?.pmiMfg?.trend ?? null, lastUpdated: "" },
|
||
pmiServices: { value: inds?.pmiServices?.value ?? null, prev: inds?.pmiServices?.prev ?? null, consensus: null, surprise: inds?.pmiServices?.surprise ?? null, trend: inds?.pmiServices?.trend ?? null, lastUpdated: "" },
|
||
gdp: { value: inds?.gdp?.value ?? null, prev: inds?.gdp?.prev ?? null, consensus: null, surprise: inds?.gdp?.surprise ?? null, trend: inds?.gdp?.trend ?? null, lastUpdated: "" },
|
||
retailSales: { value: inds?.retailSales?.value ?? null, prev: inds?.retailSales?.prev ?? null, consensus: null, surprise: inds?.retailSales?.surprise ?? null, trend: inds?.retailSales?.trend ?? null, lastUpdated: "" },
|
||
unemployment: { value: inds?.unemployment?.value ?? null, prev: inds?.unemployment?.prev ?? null, consensus: null, surprise: inds?.unemployment?.surprise ?? null, trend: inds?.unemployment?.trend ?? null, lastUpdated: "" },
|
||
employment: { value: inds?.employment?.value ?? null, prev: inds?.employment?.prev ?? null, consensus: null, surprise: inds?.employment?.surprise ?? null, trend: inds?.employment?.trend ?? null, lastUpdated: "" },
|
||
};
|
||
|
||
const macroScore = calcMacroScore(forScoring, phase);
|
||
const biasText = biasLabel(macroScore);
|
||
const dir = scoreDir(macroScore);
|
||
const yield10Y = yields?.yields[currency] ?? null;
|
||
const spread10Y = yields?.spreads[currency] ?? null;
|
||
|
||
const esi = computeESI(inds);
|
||
const policyRateValue = inds?.policyRate?.value ?? null;
|
||
const curveSpread = yield10Y !== null && policyRateValue !== null
|
||
? Math.round((yield10Y - policyRateValue) * 100) : null;
|
||
const curveInverted = curveSpread !== null && curveSpread < 0;
|
||
const curveSig: SignalDir = curveSpread === null ? "neutral"
|
||
: curveSpread < -50 ? "warning"
|
||
: curveInverted ? "neutral"
|
||
: "bullish";
|
||
|
||
useEffect(() => { onDivergenceUpdate(currency, macroScore); }, [macroScore, currency, onDivergenceUpdate]);
|
||
|
||
const rateConsensus = (() => {
|
||
const rate = inds?.policyRate?.value ?? null;
|
||
if (rate === null) return null;
|
||
if (ratePath && ratePath.meetings.length > 0) {
|
||
const next = ratePath.meetings[0];
|
||
if (next.probMovePct > 50)
|
||
return next.probIsCut
|
||
? parseFloat((rate - 0.25).toFixed(2))
|
||
: parseFloat((rate + 0.25).toFixed(2));
|
||
return parseFloat(rate.toFixed(2));
|
||
}
|
||
if (!rateExp) return null;
|
||
const desc = rateExp.prob_desc.toLowerCase();
|
||
if (desc.includes("no change")) return parseFloat(rate.toFixed(2));
|
||
if (rateExp.direction === "cut" && rateExp.prob_pct > 50) return parseFloat((rate - 0.25).toFixed(2));
|
||
if (rateExp.direction === "hike" && rateExp.prob_pct > 50) return parseFloat((rate + 0.25).toFixed(2));
|
||
return parseFloat(rate.toFixed(2));
|
||
})();
|
||
|
||
// ── Mispricing signals (computed from live data) ──────────────────────────────
|
||
const mispricingSignals: {
|
||
id: string; label: string; value: string; detail: string;
|
||
direction: SignalDir; strength: number; icon: React.ReactNode;
|
||
}[] = [];
|
||
|
||
// COT CFTC — Analyse flux AM (hedging) vs HF (spéculation) + momentum hebdomadaire
|
||
// Logique : qui domine le flux ET dans quelle direction évolue chaque groupe
|
||
if (cot) {
|
||
const hfIsShort = cot.net < 0;
|
||
const amDominates = Math.abs(cot.amNet) > Math.abs(cot.net);
|
||
const hfLongsGrowing = cot.longsDelta !== null && cot.longsDelta > 0;
|
||
const hfShortsReducing= cot.shortsDelta !== null && cot.shortsDelta < 0;
|
||
const hfShortsGrowing = cot.shortsDelta !== null && cot.shortsDelta > 0;
|
||
const hfLongsReducing = cot.longsDelta !== null && cot.longsDelta < 0;
|
||
// Direction du signal = momentum, pas position absolue
|
||
let cotDir: SignalDir;
|
||
if (amDominates) {
|
||
cotDir = cot.amNet > 0 ? "bullish" : "bearish";
|
||
} else if (hfIsShort) {
|
||
cotDir = (hfLongsGrowing || hfShortsReducing) ? "neutral" : "bearish";
|
||
} else {
|
||
cotDir = (hfShortsGrowing || hfLongsReducing) ? "neutral" : "bullish";
|
||
}
|
||
// Tendance HF en mots
|
||
let hfTrend = "";
|
||
if (hfIsShort) {
|
||
if (hfLongsGrowing && hfShortsReducing) hfTrend = "retournement en cours (L↑ S↓)";
|
||
else if (hfLongsGrowing) hfTrend = "accumulation de longs (L↑)";
|
||
else if (hfShortsReducing) hfTrend = "couverture de shorts (S↓)";
|
||
else hfTrend = "shorts stables";
|
||
} else {
|
||
if (hfShortsGrowing && hfLongsReducing) hfTrend = "retournement baissier (S↑ L↓)";
|
||
else if (hfShortsGrowing) hfTrend = "ajout de shorts (S↑)";
|
||
else if (hfLongsReducing) hfTrend = "réduction de longs (L↓)";
|
||
else hfTrend = "longs stables";
|
||
}
|
||
const hfImbalance = Math.abs(cot.longPct - cot.shortPct);
|
||
const momentumBoost = cot.netDelta !== null ? Math.min(30, Math.abs(cot.netDelta) / 500) : 0;
|
||
mispricingSignals.push({
|
||
id: "cot", label: "COT CFTC — Flux & Momentum",
|
||
direction: cotDir,
|
||
value: amDominates
|
||
? `AM ${cot.amNet > 0 ? "+" : ""}${(cot.amNet/1000).toFixed(0)}k domine`
|
||
: `HF ${cot.net > 0 ? "+" : ""}${(cot.net/1000).toFixed(0)}k domine`,
|
||
detail: `AM (hedging) : net ${cot.amNet > 0 ? "+" : ""}${(cot.amNet/1000).toFixed(0)}k${cot.amNetDelta !== null ? ` Δ${cot.amNetDelta > 0 ? "+" : ""}${(cot.amNetDelta/1000).toFixed(0)}k` : ""}. HF (spécu) : net ${cot.net > 0 ? "+" : ""}${(cot.net/1000).toFixed(0)}k — ${hfTrend}. Flux dominant : ${amDominates ? "AM (institutionnel)" : "HF (spéculatif)"}.`,
|
||
strength: Math.min(100, hfImbalance * 1.5 + momentumBoost),
|
||
icon: <BarChart2 size={13} />,
|
||
});
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
// OIS / rate probability — avec drift bps fin d'an
|
||
if (ratePath && ratePath.meetings.length > 0) {
|
||
const peak = ratePath.peakMeeting;
|
||
const yearEndBps = ratePath.yearEndImplied !== null
|
||
? Math.round((ratePath.yearEndImplied - ratePath.currentRate) * 100) : null;
|
||
if (peak) {
|
||
const oisDir: SignalDir = peak.probIsCut ? "bearish" : "bullish";
|
||
const bpsLabel = yearEndBps !== null ? `${yearEndBps > 0 ? "+" : ""}${yearEndBps}bps fin an` : "";
|
||
mispricingSignals.push({
|
||
id: "ois", label: "OIS — Drift taux fin d'an",
|
||
direction: oisDir,
|
||
value: bpsLabel
|
||
? `${peak.probMovePct.toFixed(0)}% ${peak.probIsCut ? "Cut" : "Hike"} · ${bpsLabel}`
|
||
: `${peak.probMovePct.toFixed(0)}% ${peak.probIsCut ? "Cut" : "Hike"}`,
|
||
detail: `Pic OIS : ${peak.probMovePct.toFixed(0)}% de ${peak.probIsCut ? "baisse" : "hausse"} à la réunion ${peak.label}. Taux implicite fin d'an : ${ratePath.yearEndImplied?.toFixed(2) ?? "—"}% (${yearEndBps !== null ? (yearEndBps > 0 ? "+" : "") + yearEndBps + "bps vs taux actuel" : "—"}).`,
|
||
strength: peak.probMovePct,
|
||
icon: <Target size={13} />,
|
||
});
|
||
}
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
// Yield curve / spread
|
||
if (spread10Y !== null && currency !== "USD") {
|
||
const curveDir: SignalDir = spread10Y > 0 ? "bullish" : spread10Y < -150 ? "bearish" : "neutral";
|
||
mispricingSignals.push({
|
||
id: "yield", label: "Spread 10Y vs USD", direction: curveDir,
|
||
value: `${spread10Y > 0 ? "+" : ""}${spread10Y}bps`,
|
||
detail: `Différentiel de taux 10 ans vs US : ${spread10Y > 0 ? "+" : ""}${spread10Y}bps. ${Math.abs(spread10Y) > 100 ? "Écart important — potentiel de compression/expansion non pricé." : "Différentiel modéré."}`,
|
||
strength: Math.min(100, Math.abs(spread10Y) / 2),
|
||
icon: <Activity size={13} />,
|
||
});
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
// Taux réel = Taux directeur − CPI YoY headline (= Inflation Rate YoY TE)
|
||
// Pas de fallback sur Core CPI : Core < Headline → gonflerait artificiellement le taux réel
|
||
const cpiHeadlineForReal = inds?.cpiYoY?.value ?? null;
|
||
const policyRate = inds?.policyRate?.value ?? null;
|
||
if (cpiHeadlineForReal !== null && policyRate !== null) {
|
||
const realRate = policyRate - cpiHeadlineForReal;
|
||
const inflDir: SignalDir = realRate < 0 ? "bearish" : realRate > 1.5 ? "bullish" : "neutral";
|
||
mispricingSignals.push({
|
||
id: "inflation", label: "Taux Réel (CT − CPI YoY)", direction: inflDir,
|
||
value: `${realRate > 0 ? "+" : ""}${realRate.toFixed(2)}%`,
|
||
detail: `Taux directeur ${policyRate.toFixed(2)}% − CPI YoY ${cpiHeadlineForReal.toFixed(2)}% = Taux réel ${realRate.toFixed(2)}%. ${realRate < 0 ? "Taux réel négatif → politique encore accommodante → bearish devise." : realRate > 1.5 ? "Taux réel élevé → politique très restrictive → bullish devise." : "Taux réel faiblement positif → neutre."}`,
|
||
strength: Math.min(100, Math.abs(realRate) * 25),
|
||
icon: <Zap size={13} />,
|
||
});
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
// Sentiment retail — contrarian (majorité short = bullish, majorité long = bearish)
|
||
if (sentiment) {
|
||
const sentDir: SignalDir = sentiment.longPct < 30 ? "bullish"
|
||
: sentiment.longPct > 70 ? "bearish" : "neutral";
|
||
mispricingSignals.push({
|
||
id: "sentiment", label: "Sentiment Retail (Contrarian)", direction: sentDir,
|
||
value: `${sentiment.longPct.toFixed(0)}% Long`,
|
||
detail: `Retail ${sentiment.longPct.toFixed(0)}% long / ${sentiment.shortPct.toFixed(0)}% short. Signal contrarian : ${sentDir === "bullish" ? "majorité short → opportunité haussière" : sentDir === "bearish" ? "majorité long → opportunité baissière" : "sentiment équilibré — pas de signal contrarian fort"}.`,
|
||
strength: Math.abs(sentiment.longPct - 50) * 2,
|
||
icon: <Eye size={13} />,
|
||
});
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
const bullCount = mispricingSignals.filter(s => s.direction === "bullish").length;
|
||
const bearCount = mispricingSignals.filter(s => s.direction === "bearish").length;
|
||
const avgStr = mispricingSignals.length > 0
|
||
? Math.round(mispricingSignals.reduce((a, s) => a + s.strength, 0) / mispricingSignals.length) : 0;
|
||
const mispricDir: SignalDir = bullCount > bearCount ? "bullish" : bearCount > bullCount ? "bearish" : "neutral";
|
||
|
||
// Convergence : les deux s'alignent → fort signal
|
||
// Divergence : macro et signaux se contredisent → alerte
|
||
// Macro seul : signaux neutres mais macro directionnelle → signaler quand même
|
||
// Signaux seuls: macro neutre mais signaux directionnels → signaler quand même
|
||
const divergenceSignal: SignalDir =
|
||
mispricDir !== "neutral" && dir !== "neutral" && mispricDir === dir ? mispricDir :
|
||
mispricDir !== "neutral" && dir !== "neutral" && mispricDir !== dir ? "warning" :
|
||
dir !== "neutral" ? dir : // macro seule directionnelle (signaux neutres)
|
||
mispricDir !== "neutral" ? mispricDir : // signaux seuls (macro neutre)
|
||
"neutral";
|
||
|
||
const macroOnly = dir !== "neutral" && mispricDir === "neutral";
|
||
const signalsOnly = mispricDir !== "neutral" && dir === "neutral";
|
||
const bothAligned = mispricDir !== "neutral" && dir !== "neutral" && mispricDir === dir;
|
||
const bothOpposed = mispricDir !== "neutral" && dir !== "neutral" && mispricDir !== dir;
|
||
|
||
const divergenceType =
|
||
bothAligned && divergenceSignal === "bullish" ? "Convergence haussière multi-signal" :
|
||
bothAligned && divergenceSignal === "bearish" ? "Convergence baissière multi-signal" :
|
||
bothOpposed ? `Divergence: macro ${dir === "bullish" ? "↑" : "↓"} vs signaux ${mispricDir === "bullish" ? "↑" : "↓"}` :
|
||
macroOnly && dir === "bullish" ? `Macro haussière (score +${macroScore}), signaux neutres` :
|
||
macroOnly && dir === "bearish" ? `Macro baissière (score ${macroScore}), signaux neutres` :
|
||
signalsOnly && mispricDir === "bullish" ? `Signaux haussiers, macro neutre` :
|
||
signalsOnly && mispricDir === "bearish" ? `Signaux baissiers, macro neutre` :
|
||
"Pas de signal convergent";
|
||
|
||
// Détail des contributeurs macro (même logique que calcMacroScore)
|
||
const macroContributors: { label: string; value: string; sig: number }[] = [
|
||
{ label: "Taux directeur", value: inds?.policyRate?.value != null ? `${inds.policyRate.value.toFixed(2)}%` : "", sig: (() => { const s = inds?.policyRate?.surprise; return s == null ? 0 : s > 0.3 ? 1 : s < -0.3 ? -1 : 0; })() },
|
||
{ label: "Core CPI", value: inds?.cpiCore?.value != null ? `${inds.cpiCore.value.toFixed(2)}%` : "", sig: (() => { const s = inds?.cpiCore?.surprise; return s == null ? 0 : s > 0.3 ? 1 : s < -0.3 ? -1 : 0; })() },
|
||
{ label: "PMI Mfg", value: inds?.pmiMfg?.value != null ? `${inds.pmiMfg.value.toFixed(1)}` : "", sig: inds?.pmiMfg?.value != null ? (inds.pmiMfg.value > 50 ? 1 : -1) : 0 },
|
||
{ label: "PMI Services", value: inds?.pmiServices?.value != null ? `${inds.pmiServices.value.toFixed(1)}` : "", sig: inds?.pmiServices?.value != null ? (inds.pmiServices.value > 50 ? 1 : -1) : 0 },
|
||
{ label: "PIB QoQ", value: inds?.gdp?.value != null ? `${inds.gdp.value > 0 ? "+" : ""}${inds.gdp.value.toFixed(2)}%` : "", sig: (() => { const s = inds?.gdp?.surprise; return s == null ? 0 : s > 0.3 ? 1 : s < -0.3 ? -1 : 0; })() },
|
||
{ label: "Retail Sales MoM", value: inds?.retailSales?.value != null ? `${inds.retailSales.value > 0 ? "+" : ""}${inds.retailSales.value.toFixed(2)}%` : "", sig: (() => { const s = inds?.retailSales?.surprise; return s == null ? 0 : s > 0.3 ? 1 : s < -0.3 ? -1 : 0; })() },
|
||
{ label: "Chômage", value: inds?.unemployment?.value != null ? `${inds.unemployment.value.toFixed(2)}%` : "", sig: (() => { const s = inds?.unemployment?.surprise; return s == null ? 0 : s < -0.3 ? 1 : s > 0.3 ? -1 : 0; })() },
|
||
{ label: "Emploi", value: inds?.employment?.value != null ? `${inds.employment.value > 0 ? "+" : ""}${inds.employment.value.toFixed(1)}k` : "", sig: (() => { const s = inds?.employment?.surprise; return s == null ? 0 : s > 10 ? 1 : s < -10 ? -1 : 0; })() },
|
||
].filter(c => c.value !== "");
|
||
|
||
const goToSlide = useCallback((id: SliderBlock) => {
|
||
const order: SliderBlock[] = ["news", "ois", "cot", "signal"];
|
||
setSliderBlock(prev => {
|
||
setSliderDir(order.indexOf(id) >= order.indexOf(prev) ? 1 : -1);
|
||
return id;
|
||
});
|
||
}, []);
|
||
|
||
const goToMacroSlide = useCallback((id: "mon"|"infl"|"cro"|"empl") => {
|
||
const order = ["mon", "infl", "cro", "empl"] as const;
|
||
setMacroSlide(prev => {
|
||
setMacroSlideDir(order.indexOf(id) >= order.indexOf(prev) ? 1 : -1);
|
||
return id;
|
||
});
|
||
onMacroSlideChange?.(id);
|
||
}, [onMacroSlideChange]);
|
||
|
||
// Sync depuis une autre carte : calculer la direction par rapport à la valeur précédente
|
||
useEffect(() => {
|
||
if (syncMacroSlide === undefined) return;
|
||
const order = ["mon", "infl", "cro", "empl"] as const;
|
||
const prev = prevSyncMacroRef.current;
|
||
if (syncMacroSlide !== prev) {
|
||
setMacroSlideDir(order.indexOf(syncMacroSlide) >= order.indexOf(prev) ? 1 : -1);
|
||
setMacroSlide(syncMacroSlide);
|
||
prevSyncMacroRef.current = syncMacroSlide;
|
||
}
|
||
}, [syncMacroSlide]);
|
||
|
||
// Sync tab principal depuis une autre carte
|
||
useEffect(() => {
|
||
if (syncCardTab === undefined) return;
|
||
const prev = prevSyncCardTabRef.current;
|
||
if (syncCardTab !== prev) {
|
||
setActiveTab(syncCardTab);
|
||
prevSyncCardTabRef.current = syncCardTab;
|
||
}
|
||
}, [syncCardTab]);
|
||
|
||
// Sync sous-slide Signaux depuis une autre carte
|
||
useEffect(() => {
|
||
if (syncSignauxSlide === undefined) return;
|
||
const order: SignauxSlide[] = ["ois", "cot", "sent"];
|
||
const prev = prevSyncSignauxSlideRef.current;
|
||
if (syncSignauxSlide !== prev) {
|
||
setSignauxSlideDir(order.indexOf(syncSignauxSlide) >= order.indexOf(prev) ? 1 : -1);
|
||
setSignauxSlide(syncSignauxSlide);
|
||
prevSyncSignauxSlideRef.current = syncSignauxSlide;
|
||
}
|
||
}, [syncSignauxSlide]);
|
||
|
||
const goToSignauxSlide = useCallback((id: SignauxSlide) => {
|
||
const order: SignauxSlide[] = ["ois", "cot", "sent"];
|
||
setSignauxSlide(prev => {
|
||
setSignauxSlideDir(order.indexOf(id) >= order.indexOf(prev) ? 1 : -1);
|
||
return id;
|
||
});
|
||
onSignauxSlideChange?.(id);
|
||
}, [onSignauxSlideChange]);
|
||
|
||
// ── Recent published events for this currency (last 72h, non-low impact) ─────
|
||
const recentEvents = useMemo(() => {
|
||
if (!calEvents?.length) return [];
|
||
const cutoff = Date.now() - 72 * 3600 * 1000;
|
||
return calEvents
|
||
.filter(e =>
|
||
e.currency === currency &&
|
||
e.isPublished &&
|
||
e.actual !== null &&
|
||
e.impact !== "low" &&
|
||
new Date(e.date).getTime() >= cutoff
|
||
)
|
||
.sort((a, b) => new Date(b.date).getTime() - new Date(a.date).getTime())
|
||
.slice(0, 3);
|
||
}, [calEvents, currency]);
|
||
|
||
// ── Upcoming events for this currency (next 3 days, not yet published) ────────
|
||
const upcomingEvents = useMemo(() => {
|
||
if (!calEvents?.length) return [];
|
||
const now = Date.now();
|
||
const horizon = now + 3 * 24 * 3600 * 1000;
|
||
return calEvents
|
||
.filter(e =>
|
||
e.currency === currency &&
|
||
!e.isPublished &&
|
||
e.impact !== "low" &&
|
||
new Date(e.date).getTime() >= now &&
|
||
new Date(e.date).getTime() <= horizon
|
||
)
|
||
.sort((a, b) => new Date(a.date).getTime() - new Date(b.date).getTime());
|
||
}, [calEvents, currency]);
|
||
|
||
// ── Categories with a real publication in the last 7 days for this currency
|
||
// Uses the calendar event date (not lastUpdated scraping timestamp).
|
||
const recentCalCategories = useMemo(() => {
|
||
if (!calEvents?.length) return new Set<string>();
|
||
const cutoff = Date.now() - 7 * 24 * 3600 * 1000;
|
||
const cats = new Set<string>();
|
||
for (const e of calEvents) {
|
||
if (
|
||
e.currency === currency &&
|
||
e.isPublished &&
|
||
e.actual !== null && e.actual !== "" &&
|
||
new Date(e.date).getTime() >= cutoff
|
||
) {
|
||
cats.add(e.category);
|
||
}
|
||
}
|
||
return cats;
|
||
}, [calEvents, currency]);
|
||
|
||
// Maps indicator key → EventCategory (matches calendar route types)
|
||
const IND_CAT: Record<string, string> = {
|
||
cpiYoY: "inflation", cpiCore: "inflation", cpiMoM: "inflation",
|
||
cpiCoreMoM: "inflation", ppiMoM: "inflation",
|
||
pmiMfg: "pmi", pmiServices: "pmi", pmiComposite: "pmi",
|
||
unemployment: "employment", employment: "employment",
|
||
gdp: "gdp",
|
||
retailSales: "retail_sales",
|
||
policyRate: "policy_rate",
|
||
};
|
||
const indIsNew = (key: string) => recentCalCategories.has(IND_CAT[key] ?? "__none__");
|
||
|
||
// ── 5-dimension signal summary (header dots) ──────────────────────────────────
|
||
const oisSignalDir: SignalDir = (() => {
|
||
if (!ratePath?.peakMeeting) return "neutral";
|
||
return ratePath.peakMeeting.probIsCut ? "bearish" : "bullish";
|
||
})();
|
||
const cotSignalDir = (mispricingSignals.find(s => s.id === "cot")?.direction ?? "neutral") as SignalDir;
|
||
const sentSignalDir = (mispricingSignals.find(s => s.id === "sentiment")?.direction ?? "neutral") as SignalDir;
|
||
const realRateDir: SignalDir = (() => {
|
||
const cpiH = inds?.cpiYoY?.value ?? null;
|
||
if (policyRateValue === null || cpiH === null) return "neutral";
|
||
const rr = policyRateValue - cpiH;
|
||
return rr < 0 ? "bearish" : rr > 1.5 ? "bullish" : "neutral";
|
||
})();
|
||
const signalSummary: { key: string; abbr: string; dir: SignalDir }[] = [
|
||
{ key: "ois", abbr: "OIS", dir: oisSignalDir },
|
||
{ key: "mac", abbr: "Fonda.", dir },
|
||
{ key: "cot", abbr: "COT", dir: cotSignalDir },
|
||
{ key: "sent", abbr: "Sent", dir: sentSignalDir },
|
||
{ key: "real", abbr: "Réel", dir: realRateDir },
|
||
];
|
||
|
||
// Auto-select first available slider block when data changes
|
||
useEffect(() => {
|
||
const available: SliderBlock[] = [];
|
||
if (recentEvents.length > 0) available.push("news");
|
||
if (ratePath && ratePath.meetings.length > 0) available.push("ois");
|
||
if (cot) available.push("cot");
|
||
if (divergenceSignal !== "neutral") available.push("signal");
|
||
if (!available.length) return;
|
||
setSliderBlock(prev => available.includes(prev) ? prev : available[0]);
|
||
}, [recentEvents.length, ratePath, cot, divergenceSignal]);
|
||
|
||
// ── macroSection filtering helpers ───────────────────────────────────────────
|
||
const ms = macroSection ?? "all";
|
||
const showInflation = ms === "all" || ms === "inflation";
|
||
const showPmi = ms === "all" || ms === "pmi";
|
||
const showEmployment = ms === "all" || ms === "employment";
|
||
const showGdp = ms === "all" || ms === "gdp" || ms === "pmi";
|
||
|
||
// ── Tabs config ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||
const TABS: { id: Tab; label: string; icon: React.ReactNode }[] = [
|
||
{ id: "overview", label: "Aperçu", icon: <Layers size={10} /> },
|
||
{ id: "mispricing", label: "Signaux", icon: <Eye size={10} /> },
|
||
{ id: "focus", label: "Focus", icon: <Target size={10} /> },
|
||
];
|
||
|
||
// ── Render ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||
return (
|
||
<div className="bg-slate-900 border border-slate-800 rounded-2xl flex flex-col overflow-hidden">
|
||
|
||
{/* ── Header ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── */}
|
||
<div className="px-4 pt-4 pb-3 border-b border-slate-800">
|
||
<div className="flex items-start justify-between mb-2">
|
||
<div className="flex items-center gap-2.5">
|
||
<span className="text-2xl leading-none">{meta.flag}</span>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<div className="flex items-center gap-2">
|
||
<span className="text-xl font-black text-white tracking-tight">{currency}</span>
|
||
{!loading && (
|
||
<span className={`text-sm font-bold ${sigColor(dir)}`}>{biasText}</span>
|
||
)}
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div className="text-[11px] text-slate-500">{meta.cbShort} · {meta.name}</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
{loading && <Loader2 size={16} className="animate-spin text-slate-600 mt-1" />}
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
{/* Phase pill + mispricing + ESI + cache */}
|
||
<div className="flex items-center gap-2 flex-wrap">
|
||
<span className={`text-[10px] font-semibold px-2 py-0.5 rounded-full border ${phaseStyle(phase)}`}>
|
||
{phaseLabel(phase)}
|
||
</span>
|
||
{esi !== null && <SurpriseIndexBadge value={esi} />}
|
||
{fromCache && cacheAge && (
|
||
<span className="flex items-center gap-0.5 text-[9px] text-amber-500" title="Données depuis le cache local">
|
||
<Database size={9} /> cache {cacheAge}
|
||
</span>
|
||
)}
|
||
</div>
|
||
{/* 5-dimension signal summary */}
|
||
{!loading && (
|
||
<div className="flex items-center gap-3 mt-2 pt-2 border-t border-slate-800">
|
||
{signalSummary.map(s => (
|
||
<div key={s.key} className="flex flex-col items-center gap-0.5" title={`${s.abbr} : ${s.dir}`}>
|
||
<div className={`w-2 h-2 rounded-full ${
|
||
s.dir === "bullish" ? "bg-emerald-500"
|
||
: s.dir === "bearish" ? "bg-red-500"
|
||
: s.dir === "warning" ? "bg-amber-500"
|
||
: "bg-slate-700"
|
||
}`} />
|
||
<span className="text-[7px] text-slate-600 leading-none">{s.abbr}</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
))}
|
||
<div className="ml-auto flex items-center gap-1">
|
||
{recentEvents.length > 0 && (
|
||
<button
|
||
onClick={() => { setShowRecentNews(v => !v); setShowUpcoming(false); }}
|
||
className={`text-[8px] font-semibold flex items-center gap-0.5 px-1.5 py-0.5 rounded-full border transition-all ${
|
||
showRecentNews
|
||
? "bg-amber-500/20 border-amber-500/40 text-amber-300"
|
||
: "bg-amber-500/10 border-amber-500/20 text-amber-400 hover:bg-amber-500/20 animate-pulse"
|
||
}`}
|
||
>
|
||
<span className="w-1 h-1 rounded-full bg-current" />
|
||
{recentEvents.length} publiée{recentEvents.length > 1 ? "s" : ""}
|
||
</button>
|
||
)}
|
||
{upcomingEvents.length > 0 && (
|
||
<button
|
||
onClick={() => { setShowUpcoming(v => !v); setShowRecentNews(false); }}
|
||
className={`text-[8px] font-semibold flex items-center gap-0.5 px-1.5 py-0.5 rounded-full border transition-all ${
|
||
showUpcoming
|
||
? "bg-sky-500/20 border-sky-500/40 text-sky-300"
|
||
: "bg-sky-500/10 border-sky-500/20 text-sky-400 hover:bg-sky-500/20"
|
||
}`}
|
||
>
|
||
<span className="w-1 h-1 rounded-full bg-current" />
|
||
{upcomingEvents.length} à venir
|
||
</button>
|
||
)}
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
)}
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
{/* ── News flash panel ────────────────────────────────────────────────── */}
|
||
<AnimatePresence>
|
||
{showRecentNews && recentEvents.length > 0 && (
|
||
<motion.div
|
||
initial={{ height: 0, opacity: 0 }}
|
||
animate={{ height: "auto", opacity: 1 }}
|
||
exit={{ height: 0, opacity: 0 }}
|
||
transition={{ type: "spring", stiffness: 320, damping: 28 }}
|
||
className="overflow-hidden"
|
||
>
|
||
<div className="bg-gradient-to-b from-amber-500/10 to-amber-500/5 border-b border-amber-500/20 px-3 py-2.5">
|
||
<div className="flex items-center gap-1.5 mb-2">
|
||
<span className="w-1.5 h-1.5 rounded-full bg-amber-400 animate-pulse shrink-0" />
|
||
<span className="text-[9px] font-bold text-amber-400/80 uppercase tracking-widest">Données publiées récemment</span>
|
||
<button onClick={() => setShowRecentNews(false)} className="ml-auto text-amber-500/40 hover:text-amber-400 transition-colors text-[11px] leading-none">✕</button>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div className="space-y-1">
|
||
{recentEvents.map(e => {
|
||
const aNum = e.actual ? parseFloat(e.actual) : null;
|
||
const fNum = e.forecast ? parseFloat(e.forecast) : null;
|
||
const surp = aNum !== null && fNum !== null && !isNaN(aNum) && !isNaN(fNum) ? aNum - fNum : null;
|
||
const isBeat = surp !== null && surp > 0;
|
||
const isMiss = surp !== null && surp < 0;
|
||
return (
|
||
<div key={e.id} className="flex items-center gap-2">
|
||
<span className={`w-1 h-1 rounded-full shrink-0 ${e.impact === "high" ? "bg-red-500" : "bg-amber-500"}`} />
|
||
<span className="text-[10px] text-slate-300 flex-1 truncate">{e.title}</span>
|
||
<span className="flex items-center gap-1 shrink-0">
|
||
{e.actual && <span className={`text-[10px] font-bold tabular-nums ${isBeat ? "text-emerald-400" : isMiss ? "text-red-400" : "text-slate-300"}`}>A: {e.actual}</span>}
|
||
{e.forecast && <span className="text-[9px] text-slate-600">F: {e.forecast}</span>}
|
||
{isBeat && <span className="text-[8px] font-black text-emerald-400 bg-emerald-500/15 px-1 rounded">↑</span>}
|
||
{isMiss && <span className="text-[8px] font-black text-red-400 bg-red-500/15 px-1 rounded">↓</span>}
|
||
</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
);
|
||
})}
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</motion.div>
|
||
)}
|
||
</AnimatePresence>
|
||
|
||
{/* ── Upcoming events panel ───────────────────────────────────────────── */}
|
||
<AnimatePresence>
|
||
{showUpcoming && upcomingEvents.length > 0 && (
|
||
<motion.div
|
||
initial={{ height: 0, opacity: 0 }}
|
||
animate={{ height: "auto", opacity: 1 }}
|
||
exit={{ height: 0, opacity: 0 }}
|
||
transition={{ type: "spring", stiffness: 320, damping: 28 }}
|
||
className="overflow-hidden"
|
||
>
|
||
<div className="bg-gradient-to-b from-sky-500/10 to-sky-500/5 border-b border-sky-500/20 px-3 py-2.5">
|
||
<div className="flex items-center gap-1.5 mb-2">
|
||
<span className="w-1.5 h-1.5 rounded-full bg-sky-400 shrink-0" />
|
||
<span className="text-[9px] font-bold text-sky-400/80 uppercase tracking-widest">À venir — 3 prochains jours</span>
|
||
<button onClick={() => setShowUpcoming(false)} className="ml-auto text-sky-500/40 hover:text-sky-400 transition-colors text-[11px] leading-none">✕</button>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div className="space-y-1.5">
|
||
{upcomingEvents.map(e => {
|
||
const fNum = e.forecast ? parseFloat(e.forecast) : null;
|
||
const pNum = e.previous ? parseFloat(e.previous) : null;
|
||
const diff = fNum !== null && pNum !== null && !isNaN(fNum) && !isNaN(pNum) ? fNum - pNum : null;
|
||
const isUp = diff !== null && diff > 0;
|
||
const isDown = diff !== null && diff < 0;
|
||
const eventDate = new Date(e.date);
|
||
const dayLabel = eventDate.toLocaleDateString("fr-FR", { weekday: "short", day: "numeric", month: "short" });
|
||
const timeLabel = eventDate.toLocaleTimeString("fr-FR", { hour: "2-digit", minute: "2-digit" });
|
||
return (
|
||
<div key={e.id} className="flex items-start gap-2">
|
||
<span className={`w-1 h-1 rounded-full shrink-0 mt-[5px] ${e.impact === "high" ? "bg-red-500" : "bg-amber-500"}`} />
|
||
<div className="flex-1 min-w-0">
|
||
<div className="flex items-center gap-1 flex-wrap">
|
||
<span className="text-[10px] text-slate-300 truncate">{e.title}</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div className="flex items-center gap-2 mt-0.5 flex-wrap">
|
||
<span className="text-[9px] text-slate-500">{dayLabel} {timeLabel}</span>
|
||
{e.forecast && (
|
||
<span className="text-[9px] text-sky-400 font-semibold">
|
||
F: {e.forecast}
|
||
</span>
|
||
)}
|
||
{e.previous && (
|
||
<span className="text-[9px] text-slate-500">
|
||
Préc: {e.previous}
|
||
</span>
|
||
)}
|
||
{diff !== null && (
|
||
<span className={`text-[8px] font-black px-1 rounded ${
|
||
isUp ? "text-emerald-400 bg-emerald-500/15"
|
||
: isDown ? "text-red-400 bg-red-500/15"
|
||
: "text-slate-400 bg-slate-700"
|
||
}`}>
|
||
{isUp ? "↑" : isDown ? "↓" : "="}{" "}
|
||
{diff > 0 ? "+" : ""}{diff.toFixed(2).replace(/\.?0+$/, "")}
|
||
</span>
|
||
)}
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
);
|
||
})}
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</motion.div>
|
||
)}
|
||
</AnimatePresence>
|
||
|
||
{/* ── Tab bar ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── */}
|
||
<div className="flex border-b border-slate-800 px-1 pt-1">
|
||
{TABS.map((t) => (
|
||
<button
|
||
key={t.id}
|
||
onClick={() => { setActiveTab(t.id); onCardTabChange?.(t.id); }}
|
||
className={`flex items-center gap-1.5 px-3 py-2 text-[11px] font-medium rounded-t-lg transition-all ${
|
||
activeTab === t.id
|
||
? "text-white bg-slate-800"
|
||
: "text-slate-500 hover:text-slate-300"
|
||
}`}
|
||
>
|
||
{t.icon}
|
||
{t.label}
|
||
{t.id === "mispricing" && mispricingSignals.length > 0 && (
|
||
<span className={`text-[9px] font-bold px-1 rounded ${
|
||
mispricDir === "bullish" ? "bg-emerald-500/20 text-emerald-400"
|
||
: mispricDir === "bearish" ? "bg-red-500/20 text-red-400"
|
||
: "bg-slate-700 text-slate-400"
|
||
}`}>
|
||
{bullCount > bearCount ? `${bullCount}↑` : bearCount > bullCount ? `${bearCount}↓` : "—"}
|
||
</span>
|
||
)}
|
||
</button>
|
||
))}
|
||
<div className="flex-1" />
|
||
<NarrativeButton currency={currency} phase={phase} macroScore={macroScore} />
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
{/* ── Tab content ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────── */}
|
||
<div className="flex-1 overflow-y-auto overflow-x-hidden p-3">
|
||
<AnimatePresence mode="wait">
|
||
<motion.div
|
||
key={activeTab}
|
||
initial={{ opacity: 0, y: 5 }}
|
||
animate={{ opacity: 1, y: 0 }}
|
||
exit={{ opacity: 0, y: -5 }}
|
||
transition={{ duration: 0.12 }}
|
||
className="space-y-2"
|
||
>
|
||
|
||
{/* ════ APERÇU ════════════════════════════════════════════════════ */}
|
||
{activeTab === "overview" && (
|
||
<>
|
||
|
||
{/* ── Divergence macro / marché ───────────────────────────── */}
|
||
{(dir !== "neutral" || mispricDir !== "neutral") && (
|
||
<div className={`rounded-xl border px-3 py-2 flex items-center gap-3 ${
|
||
bothOpposed
|
||
? "bg-amber-500/8 border-amber-500/25"
|
||
: bothAligned
|
||
? `${sigBg(divergenceSignal)}`
|
||
: "bg-slate-800/40 border-slate-700/30"
|
||
}`}>
|
||
{/* Macro */}
|
||
<div className="flex flex-col items-center gap-0.5">
|
||
<span className="text-[7px] text-slate-600 uppercase tracking-wider">Fond.</span>
|
||
<span className={`text-[18px] font-black leading-none ${sigColor(dir)}`}>
|
||
{dir === "bullish" ? "↑" : dir === "bearish" ? "↓" : "—"}
|
||
</span>
|
||
<span className={`text-[9px] font-bold tabular-nums ${sigColor(dir)}`}>
|
||
{macroScore > 0 ? "+" : ""}{macroScore}
|
||
</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
{/* Verdict central */}
|
||
<div className="flex-1 text-center">
|
||
<div className={`text-[10px] font-bold ${bothOpposed ? "text-amber-400" : sigColor(divergenceSignal)}`}>
|
||
{bothOpposed ? "⚠ Divergence" : bothAligned ? (divergenceSignal === "bullish" ? "✓ Convergence ↑" : "✓ Convergence ↓") : dir !== "neutral" ? "Macro seule" : "Signaux seuls"}
|
||
</div>
|
||
{bothOpposed && (
|
||
<div className="text-[8px] text-slate-600 mt-0.5">
|
||
Fond. {dir === "bullish" ? "haussier" : "baissier"} · Marché {mispricDir === "bullish" ? "haussier" : "baissier"}
|
||
</div>
|
||
)}
|
||
</div>
|
||
{/* Marché / Signaux */}
|
||
<div className="flex flex-col items-center gap-0.5">
|
||
<span className="text-[7px] text-slate-600 uppercase tracking-wider">Marché</span>
|
||
<span className={`text-[18px] font-black leading-none ${sigColor(mispricDir)}`}>
|
||
{mispricDir === "bullish" ? "↑" : mispricDir === "bearish" ? "↓" : "—"}
|
||
</span>
|
||
<span className={`text-[9px] text-slate-600`}>OIS/COT/Sent</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
)}
|
||
|
||
{/* ── Slider macro : Mon. / Infl. / Cro. / Empl. ───────────── */}
|
||
{(() => {
|
||
const macroTabs: { id: "mon"|"infl"|"cro"|"empl"; label: string }[] = [
|
||
{ id: "mon", label: "Mon." },
|
||
{ id: "infl", label: "Infl." },
|
||
{ id: "cro", label: "Cro." },
|
||
{ id: "empl", label: "Empl." },
|
||
];
|
||
return (
|
||
<div className="space-y-1.5">
|
||
{/* Micro-buttons */}
|
||
<div className="flex gap-1">
|
||
{macroTabs.map(t => (
|
||
<button
|
||
key={t.id}
|
||
onClick={() => goToMacroSlide(t.id)}
|
||
className={`text-[9px] font-semibold px-2.5 py-0.5 rounded-full border transition-all ${
|
||
macroSlide === t.id
|
||
? "bg-slate-700 border-slate-500 text-white"
|
||
: "bg-transparent border-slate-700/60 text-slate-500 hover:text-slate-300 hover:border-slate-500"
|
||
}`}
|
||
>
|
||
{t.label}
|
||
</button>
|
||
))}
|
||
</div>
|
||
{/* Fixed-height sliding container */}
|
||
<div className="relative h-[260px] overflow-hidden rounded-xl">
|
||
<AnimatePresence mode="wait" custom={macroSlideDir}>
|
||
<motion.div
|
||
key={macroSlide}
|
||
custom={macroSlideDir}
|
||
variants={{
|
||
enter: (d: number) => ({ x: d > 0 ? "100%" : "-100%", opacity: 0 }),
|
||
center: { x: "0%", opacity: 1 },
|
||
exit: (d: number) => ({ x: d > 0 ? "-100%" : "100%", opacity: 0 }),
|
||
}}
|
||
initial="enter"
|
||
animate="center"
|
||
exit="exit"
|
||
transition={{ type: "tween", duration: 0.22, ease: "easeInOut" }}
|
||
className="absolute inset-0 overflow-hidden"
|
||
>
|
||
|
||
{/* MON. — Politique Monétaire */}
|
||
{macroSlide === "mon" && (
|
||
<MacroBlock title="Politique Monétaire">
|
||
<IRow label="Taux directeur" ind={inds?.policyRate ?? null} unit="%" consensus={rateConsensus} isNew={indIsNew("policyRate")} />
|
||
{(() => {
|
||
const cpiH = inds?.cpiYoY?.value ?? null;
|
||
if (policyRateValue === null || cpiH === null) return null;
|
||
const rr = parseFloat((policyRateValue - cpiH).toFixed(2));
|
||
const rDir: SignalDir = rr < 0 ? "bearish" : rr > 1.5 ? "bullish" : "neutral";
|
||
return (
|
||
<div className="flex items-center justify-between text-[12px]">
|
||
<div className="flex items-center gap-1.5"><span className="text-slate-600">→</span><span className="text-slate-400">Taux réel (CT−CPI)</span></div>
|
||
<span className={`font-semibold tabular-nums ${sigColor(rDir)}`} title={`${policyRateValue.toFixed(2)}% − CPI YoY ${cpiH.toFixed(2)}%`}>{rr > 0 ? "+" : ""}{rr}%</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
);
|
||
})()}
|
||
{curveSpread !== null && (
|
||
<div className="flex items-center justify-between text-[12px]">
|
||
<div className="flex items-center gap-1.5"><span className="text-slate-600">→</span><span className="text-slate-400">Courbe (10Y−CT)</span></div>
|
||
<span className={`font-semibold tabular-nums ${sigColor(curveSig)}`}>{curveSpread > 0 ? "+" : ""}{curveSpread}bps{curveInverted ? " ⚠" : ""}</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
)}
|
||
{yield10Y !== null && (
|
||
<div className="flex items-center justify-between text-[12px]">
|
||
<div className="flex items-center gap-1.5"><span className="text-slate-600">→</span><span className="text-slate-400">10Y Yield</span></div>
|
||
<div className="flex items-center gap-1.5">
|
||
<span className="font-semibold text-slate-200 tabular-nums">{yield10Y.toFixed(2)}%</span>
|
||
{spread10Y !== null && <span className={`text-[10px] ${spread10Y > 0 ? "text-emerald-500" : "text-red-500"}`}>({spread10Y > 0 ? "+" : ""}{spread10Y}bps)</span>}
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
)}
|
||
</MacroBlock>
|
||
)}
|
||
|
||
{/* INFL. — Inflation */}
|
||
{macroSlide === "infl" && (
|
||
<MacroBlock title="Inflation">
|
||
<IRow label="CPI MoM" ind={inds?.cpiMoM ?? null} unit="%" consensus={fc?.cpiMoM ?? null} isNew={indIsNew("cpiMoM")} />
|
||
<IRow label="PPI MoM" ind={inds?.ppiMoM ?? null} unit="%" consensus={fc?.ppiMoM ?? null} isNew={indIsNew("ppiMoM")} />
|
||
<IRow label="Core CPI YoY" ind={inds?.cpiCore ?? null} unit="%" consensus={fc?.cpiCore ?? fc?.cpi ?? null} surpriseVsCons={fc?.cpiSurprise ?? null} isNew={indIsNew("cpiCore")} />
|
||
<IRow label="Inflation Rate YoY" ind={inds?.cpiYoY ?? null} unit="%" consensus={fc?.cpi ?? null} isNew={indIsNew("cpiYoY")} />
|
||
</MacroBlock>
|
||
)}
|
||
|
||
{/* CRO. — Croissance */}
|
||
{macroSlide === "cro" && (
|
||
<MacroBlock title="Croissance">
|
||
<IRow label="PIB (QoQ%)" ind={inds?.gdp ?? null} unit="%" consensus={fc?.gdp ?? null} surpriseVsCons={fc?.gdpSurprise ?? null} isNew={indIsNew("gdp")} />
|
||
<IRow label="PMI Composite" ind={inds?.pmiComposite ?? null} consensus={fc?.pmiComposite ?? null} surpriseVsCons={fc?.pmiCompositeSurprise ?? null} isNew={indIsNew("pmiComposite")} />
|
||
<IRow label="Retail Sales MoM" ind={inds?.retailSales ?? null} unit="%" consensus={fc?.retailSales ?? null} surpriseVsCons={fc?.retailSalesSurprise ?? null} isNew={indIsNew("retailSales")} />
|
||
<IRow label="PMI Manufacturing" ind={inds?.pmiMfg ?? null} consensus={fc?.pmiMfg ?? null} surpriseVsCons={fc?.pmiMfgSurprise ?? null} isNew={indIsNew("pmiMfg")} />
|
||
<IRow label="PMI Services" ind={inds?.pmiServices ?? null} consensus={fc?.pmiSvc ?? null} surpriseVsCons={fc?.pmiSvcSurprise ?? null} isNew={indIsNew("pmiServices")} />
|
||
</MacroBlock>
|
||
)}
|
||
|
||
{/* EMPL. — Emploi */}
|
||
{macroSlide === "empl" && (
|
||
<MacroBlock title="Emploi">
|
||
<IRow label="Variation emploi" ind={inds?.employment ?? null} unit="k" consensus={fc?.employment ?? null} surpriseVsCons={fc?.employmentSurprise ?? null} isNew={indIsNew("employment")} />
|
||
<IRow label="Taux de chômage" ind={inds?.unemployment ?? null} unit="%" invertSurprise consensus={fc?.unemployment ?? null} surpriseVsCons={fc?.unemploymentSurprise ?? null} isNew={indIsNew("unemployment")} />
|
||
</MacroBlock>
|
||
)}
|
||
|
||
</motion.div>
|
||
</AnimatePresence>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
);
|
||
})()}
|
||
</>
|
||
)}
|
||
|
||
{/* ════ SIGNAUX / MISPRICING ════════════════════════════════════ */}
|
||
{activeTab === "mispricing" && (
|
||
<>
|
||
{/* ── Slider : OIS / COT / Sentiment ──────────────────────── */}
|
||
{(() => {
|
||
const sigTabs: { id: SignauxSlide; label: string }[] = [];
|
||
if (ratePath && ratePath.meetings.length > 0) sigTabs.push({ id: "ois", label: "OIS" });
|
||
if (cot) sigTabs.push({ id: "cot", label: "COT" });
|
||
if (sentiment) sigTabs.push({ id: "sent", label: "Sentiment" });
|
||
if (!sigTabs.length) return <div className="text-center text-slate-600 text-[11px] py-4">Données insuffisantes</div>;
|
||
return (
|
||
<div className="space-y-1.5">
|
||
{sigTabs.length > 1 && (
|
||
<div className="flex gap-1">
|
||
{sigTabs.map(t => (
|
||
<button key={t.id} onClick={() => goToSignauxSlide(t.id)} className={`text-[9px] font-semibold px-2.5 py-0.5 rounded-full border transition-all ${signauxSlide === t.id ? "bg-slate-700 border-slate-500 text-white" : "bg-transparent border-slate-700/60 text-slate-500 hover:text-slate-300 hover:border-slate-500"}`}>{t.label}</button>
|
||
))}
|
||
</div>
|
||
)}
|
||
<div className={`relative ${signauxSlide === "ois" && ratePath && ratePath.meetings.length > 0 ? "h-[460px]" : "h-[310px]"} overflow-hidden rounded-xl transition-all duration-300`}>
|
||
<AnimatePresence mode="wait" custom={signauxSlideDir}>
|
||
<motion.div
|
||
key={signauxSlide}
|
||
custom={signauxSlideDir}
|
||
variants={{
|
||
enter: (d: number) => ({ x: d > 0 ? "100%" : "-100%", opacity: 0 }),
|
||
center: { x: "0%", opacity: 1 },
|
||
exit: (d: number) => ({ x: d > 0 ? "-100%" : "100%", opacity: 0 }),
|
||
}}
|
||
initial="enter"
|
||
animate="center"
|
||
exit="exit"
|
||
transition={{ type: "tween", duration: 0.22, ease: "easeInOut" }}
|
||
className="absolute inset-0 overflow-hidden"
|
||
>
|
||
|
||
{/* OIS — nouveau bloc enrichi */}
|
||
{signauxSlide === "ois" && ratePath && ratePath.meetings.length > 0 && (
|
||
<OISEnhancedBlock ratePath={ratePath} />
|
||
)}
|
||
|
||
{/* COT */}
|
||
{signauxSlide === "cot" && cot && (() => {
|
||
const hfIsShort = cot.net < 0;
|
||
const amDominates = Math.abs(cot.amNet) > Math.abs(cot.net);
|
||
const hfLongsGrowing = cot.longsDelta !== null && cot.longsDelta > 0;
|
||
const hfShortsReducing= cot.shortsDelta !== null && cot.shortsDelta < 0;
|
||
const hfShortsGrowing = cot.shortsDelta !== null && cot.shortsDelta > 0;
|
||
const hfLongsReducing = cot.longsDelta !== null && cot.longsDelta < 0;
|
||
|
||
let hfTrend = "";
|
||
if (hfIsShort) {
|
||
if (hfLongsGrowing && hfShortsReducing) hfTrend = "retournement en cours (L↑ S↓)";
|
||
else if (hfLongsGrowing) hfTrend = "accumulation de longs (L↑)";
|
||
else if (hfShortsReducing) hfTrend = "couverture de shorts (S↓)";
|
||
else hfTrend = "exposition baissière stable";
|
||
} else {
|
||
if (hfShortsGrowing && hfLongsReducing) hfTrend = "retournement baissier (S↑ L↓)";
|
||
else if (hfShortsGrowing) hfTrend = "ajout de shorts (S↑)";
|
||
else if (hfLongsReducing) hfTrend = "réduction de longs (L↓)";
|
||
else hfTrend = "exposition haussière stable";
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
// Poids relatif AM vs HF (barre de dominance)
|
||
const totalAbs = Math.abs(cot.amNet) + Math.abs(cot.net);
|
||
const amPct = totalAbs > 0 ? Math.round(Math.abs(cot.amNet) / totalAbs * 100) : 50;
|
||
const hfPct = 100 - amPct;
|
||
const dFmt = (v: number) => `${v > 0 ? "+" : ""}${(v / 1000).toFixed(1)}k`;
|
||
|
||
return (
|
||
<div className="rounded-xl border border-slate-700/40 bg-slate-800/20 p-3 space-y-2">
|
||
{/* ① Header */}
|
||
<div className="flex items-center justify-between">
|
||
<div className="flex items-center gap-1.5 text-[9px] text-slate-600 uppercase tracking-widest">
|
||
<BarChart2 size={9} />
|
||
COT CFTC · {cot.weekDate}
|
||
<button
|
||
onClick={() => setShowCotInfo(v => !v)}
|
||
className="ml-0.5 text-slate-500 hover:text-slate-300 transition-colors"
|
||
title="Comprendre ces données"
|
||
>
|
||
<Info size={10} />
|
||
</button>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<span className="text-[9px] text-slate-600">{cot.prevWeekDate ? `vs ${cot.prevWeekDate}` : ""}</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
{/* ⓘ Tooltip explicatif */}
|
||
{showCotInfo && (
|
||
<div className="bg-slate-900 border border-slate-700/60 rounded-lg px-2.5 py-2 text-[9px] text-slate-400 space-y-1 leading-relaxed">
|
||
<p><span className="text-indigo-400 font-bold">AM (Asset Managers)</span> — fonds pension, souverains, assurances. Prennent des positions pour <em>couvrir</em> des expositions réelles (hedging). Leur flux pilote la devise à moyen terme.</p>
|
||
<p><span className="text-amber-400 font-bold">HF (Hedge Funds / CTAs)</span> — spéculation directionnelle à court terme. Réactifs aux catalyseurs macro. Retournements rapides possibles.</p>
|
||
<p className="pt-0.5 border-t border-slate-700/40"><span className="text-slate-300 font-semibold">Lire :</span> Net = longs − shorts · <span className="text-emerald-400">Δ sem</span> = variation vs semaine précédente · <span className="text-slate-300">L%</span> = part de longs dans le total. Un HF net short avec des longs qui augmentent (Δ L↑) signale un potentiel retournement haussier.</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
)}
|
||
|
||
{/* ② Signal de synthèse — lecture immédiate en premier */}
|
||
{(() => {
|
||
const hfSignalColor =
|
||
(hfLongsGrowing && hfIsShort) || (hfShortsReducing && hfIsShort)
|
||
? "text-emerald-400 border-emerald-500/20 bg-emerald-500/5"
|
||
: (hfShortsGrowing && !hfIsShort) || (hfLongsReducing && !hfIsShort)
|
||
? "text-red-400 border-red-500/20 bg-red-500/5"
|
||
: "text-slate-300 border-slate-600/30 bg-slate-800/30";
|
||
return (
|
||
<div className={`rounded-lg border px-3 py-2 ${hfSignalColor}`}>
|
||
<div className="text-[11px] font-bold leading-snug">
|
||
→ HF {hfIsShort ? "net short" : "net long"} — {hfTrend}
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div className="text-[9px] mt-0.5 opacity-70">
|
||
{amDominates
|
||
? `AM domine le flux · ${cot.amNet > 0 ? "hedge haussier" : "hedge baissier"} (${dFmt(cot.amNet)})`
|
||
: `HF domine le flux · net ${dFmt(cot.net)}`
|
||
}
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
);
|
||
})()}
|
||
|
||
{/* ③ Flux hebdomadaire HF — ΔL/ΔS en priorité */}
|
||
<div className="bg-slate-900/40 rounded-lg px-3 py-2 space-y-1.5">
|
||
<div className="text-[8px] text-slate-600 uppercase tracking-wider text-center">Mouvement HF · semaine</div>
|
||
<div className="flex justify-center items-stretch gap-8">
|
||
<div className="space-y-0.5 text-center">
|
||
<div className="text-[8px] text-slate-600">Δ Longs</div>
|
||
<div className={`text-[13px] font-black tabular-nums leading-none ${
|
||
cot.longsDelta === null ? "text-slate-600"
|
||
: cot.longsDelta > 0 ? "text-emerald-400" : "text-red-400"
|
||
}`}>
|
||
{cot.longsDelta !== null
|
||
? `${cot.longsDelta > 0 ? "+" : ""}${(cot.longsDelta/1000).toFixed(1)}k${cot.longsDelta > 0 ? "↑" : "↓"}`
|
||
: "—"
|
||
}
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div className="text-[9px] text-slate-600">{(cot.hfLongs/1000).toFixed(1)}k acc.</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div className="w-px bg-slate-700/50" />
|
||
<div className="space-y-0.5 text-center">
|
||
<div className="text-[8px] text-slate-600">Δ Shorts</div>
|
||
<div className={`text-[13px] font-black tabular-nums leading-none ${
|
||
cot.shortsDelta === null ? "text-slate-600"
|
||
: cot.shortsDelta > 0 ? "text-red-400" : "text-emerald-400"
|
||
}`}>
|
||
{cot.shortsDelta !== null
|
||
? `${cot.shortsDelta > 0 ? "+" : ""}${(cot.shortsDelta/1000).toFixed(1)}k${cot.shortsDelta > 0 ? "↑" : "↓"}`
|
||
: "—"
|
||
}
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div className="text-[9px] text-slate-600">{(cot.hfShorts/1000).toFixed(1)}k acc.</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
{/* ④ Dominance AM vs HF — poids + direction explicite */}
|
||
<div className="space-y-1.5">
|
||
{/* Barre de poids */}
|
||
<div className="flex rounded-full overflow-hidden h-1.5">
|
||
<div className="bg-indigo-500/70 transition-all" style={{ width: `${amPct}%` }} />
|
||
<div className="bg-amber-500/60 transition-all" style={{ width: `${hfPct}%` }} />
|
||
</div>
|
||
{/* AM */}
|
||
<div className="flex items-center justify-between text-[9px]">
|
||
<span className="text-indigo-400 font-semibold">AM · {amPct}% du flux</span>
|
||
<span className="flex items-center gap-1.5">
|
||
<span className={`font-bold px-1 rounded text-[8px] ${cot.amNet > 0 ? "bg-emerald-500/15 text-emerald-400" : "bg-red-500/15 text-red-400"}`}>
|
||
{cot.amNet > 0 ? "LONG" : "SHORT"}
|
||
</span>
|
||
<span className={`tabular-nums ${cot.amNet > 0 ? "text-emerald-400" : "text-red-400"}`}>
|
||
{dFmt(cot.amNet)}
|
||
</span>
|
||
{cot.amNetDelta !== null && (
|
||
<span className="text-slate-600">Δ{dFmt(cot.amNetDelta)}{cot.amNetDelta > 0 ? "↑" : "↓"}</span>
|
||
)}
|
||
</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
{/* HF */}
|
||
<div className="flex items-center justify-between text-[9px]">
|
||
<span className="text-amber-400 font-semibold">HF · {hfPct}% du flux</span>
|
||
<span className="flex items-center gap-1.5">
|
||
<span className={`font-bold px-1 rounded text-[8px] ${cot.net > 0 ? "bg-emerald-500/15 text-emerald-400" : "bg-red-500/15 text-red-400"}`}>
|
||
{cot.net > 0 ? "LONG" : "SHORT"}
|
||
</span>
|
||
<span className={`tabular-nums ${cot.net > 0 ? "text-emerald-400" : "text-red-400"}`}>
|
||
{dFmt(cot.net)}
|
||
</span>
|
||
{cot.netDelta !== null && (
|
||
<span className="text-slate-600">Δ{dFmt(cot.netDelta)}{cot.netDelta > 0 ? "↑" : "↓"}</span>
|
||
)}
|
||
</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
);
|
||
})()}
|
||
|
||
{/* Sentiment */}
|
||
{signauxSlide === "sent" && sentiment && (() => {
|
||
const sentDir = sentiment.longPct < 30 ? "bullish" : sentiment.longPct > 70 ? "bearish" : "neutral";
|
||
const sentCls = sentDir === "bullish" ? "text-emerald-400" : sentDir === "bearish" ? "text-red-400" : "text-slate-400";
|
||
const sentBg = sentDir === "bullish" ? "border-emerald-500/20 bg-emerald-500/5" : sentDir === "bearish" ? "border-red-500/20 bg-red-500/5" : "border-slate-700/40 bg-slate-800/20";
|
||
return (
|
||
<div className="rounded-xl border border-slate-700/40 bg-slate-800/20 p-3 h-full space-y-3">
|
||
<div className="flex items-center gap-1.5 text-[9px] text-slate-600 uppercase tracking-widest">
|
||
<Activity size={9} />
|
||
Sentiment Retail (DXM) · {sentiment.pair}
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div className="flex items-center gap-4">
|
||
<div className="text-center shrink-0">
|
||
<div className="text-[9px] text-slate-600 mb-0.5">Long</div>
|
||
<div className="text-[26px] font-black tabular-nums text-emerald-400 leading-none">{sentiment.longPct.toFixed(0)}%</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div className="flex-1 space-y-1">
|
||
<div className="flex rounded-full overflow-hidden h-2.5">
|
||
<div className="bg-emerald-500/70 transition-all" style={{ width: `${sentiment.longPct}%` }} />
|
||
<div className="bg-red-500/60 transition-all" style={{ width: `${sentiment.shortPct}%` }} />
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div className="flex justify-between text-[8px] text-slate-600"><span>Long</span><span>Short</span></div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div className="text-center shrink-0">
|
||
<div className="text-[9px] text-slate-600 mb-0.5">Short</div>
|
||
<div className="text-[26px] font-black tabular-nums text-red-400 leading-none">{sentiment.shortPct.toFixed(0)}%</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div className={`rounded-lg border px-3 py-2 ${sentBg}`}>
|
||
<div className={`text-[11px] font-bold ${sentCls}`}>
|
||
{sentDir === "bullish"
|
||
? `Signal contrarian HAUSSIER — majorité short (${sentiment.shortPct.toFixed(0)}%)`
|
||
: sentDir === "bearish"
|
||
? `Signal contrarian BAISSIER — majorité long (${sentiment.longPct.toFixed(0)}%)`
|
||
: "Sentiment équilibré — pas de signal contrarian"}
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div className="text-[9px] text-slate-500 mt-0.5">
|
||
{sentDir === "bullish" ? "Retail survendu → opportunité d'achat"
|
||
: sentDir === "bearish" ? "Retail suracheté → opportunité de vente"
|
||
: "Attendre un déséquilibre >70/30"}
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
);
|
||
})()}
|
||
|
||
</motion.div>
|
||
</AnimatePresence>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
);
|
||
})()}
|
||
</>
|
||
)}
|
||
|
||
{/* ════ FOCUS DONNÉES ══════════════════════════════════════════════ */}
|
||
{activeTab === "focus" && (
|
||
<>
|
||
{/* Context phase — source : OIS / probabilités de taux (fallback : trend FRED) */}
|
||
<div className={`rounded-xl border p-3 text-[11px] ${sigBg(trendDir(phase === "tightening" ? "up" : phase === "easing" ? "down" : null))}`}>
|
||
<div className="flex items-center justify-between mb-1">
|
||
<span className={`font-semibold ${sigColor(trendDir(phase === "tightening" ? "up" : phase === "easing" ? "down" : null))}`}>
|
||
Phase {phaseLabel(phase)}
|
||
</span>
|
||
<span className="text-[9px] text-slate-600 italic">
|
||
{ratePath ? "Source : OIS / probabilités" : "Source : trend taux FRED"}
|
||
</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<p className="text-slate-400 leading-relaxed">
|
||
{phaseDescription(phase, ratePath)}
|
||
</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
{/* Données clés selon phase */}
|
||
<MacroBlock title={phase === "easing" || phase === "dovish_pause" ? "Données Assouplissement" : "Données Resserrement"}>
|
||
{(phase === "easing" || phase === "dovish_pause")
|
||
? <>
|
||
<FocusRow importance="critical"><IRow label="Taux de chômage" ind={inds?.unemployment ?? null} unit="%" invertSurprise consensus={fc?.unemployment ?? null} /></FocusRow>
|
||
<FocusRow importance="critical"><IRow label="Variation emploi" ind={inds?.employment ?? null} unit="k" consensus={fc?.employment ?? null} /></FocusRow>
|
||
<FocusRow importance="high"><IRow label="PIB (QoQ%)" ind={inds?.gdp ?? null} unit="%" consensus={fc?.gdp ?? null} /></FocusRow>
|
||
<FocusRow importance="high"><IRow label="PMI Composite" ind={inds?.pmiComposite ?? null} consensus={fc?.pmiComposite ?? null} /></FocusRow>
|
||
<FocusRow importance="medium"><IRow label="Retail Sales MoM" ind={inds?.retailSales ?? null} unit="%" consensus={fc?.retailSales ?? null} /></FocusRow>
|
||
</>
|
||
: <>
|
||
<FocusRow importance="critical"><IRow label="CPI MoM" ind={inds?.cpiMoM ?? null} unit="%" consensus={fc?.cpiMoM ?? null} /></FocusRow>
|
||
<FocusRow importance="critical"><IRow label="Core CPI YoY" ind={inds?.cpiCore ?? null} unit="%" consensus={fc?.cpiCore ?? null} /></FocusRow>
|
||
<FocusRow importance="critical"><IRow label="Inflation Rate YoY" ind={inds?.cpiYoY ?? null} unit="%" consensus={fc?.cpi ?? null} /></FocusRow>
|
||
<FocusRow importance="high"><IRow label="PMI Services" ind={inds?.pmiServices ?? null} consensus={fc?.pmiSvc ?? null} /></FocusRow>
|
||
<FocusRow importance="high"><IRow label="Variation emploi" ind={inds?.employment ?? null} unit="k" consensus={fc?.employment ?? null} /></FocusRow>
|
||
</>
|
||
}
|
||
</MacroBlock>
|
||
|
||
{/* Taux directeur */}
|
||
<MacroBlock title="Politique Monétaire">
|
||
<IRow label="Taux directeur" ind={inds?.policyRate ?? null} unit="%" consensus={rateConsensus} />
|
||
{yield10Y !== null && (
|
||
<div className="flex items-center justify-between text-[12px]">
|
||
<div className="flex items-center gap-1.5">
|
||
<span className="text-slate-600">→</span>
|
||
<span className="text-slate-400">10Y Yield</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<span className="font-semibold text-slate-200 tabular-nums">{yield10Y.toFixed(2)}%</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
)}
|
||
</MacroBlock>
|
||
</>
|
||
)}
|
||
|
||
</motion.div>
|
||
</AnimatePresence>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
);
|
||
}
|