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caty21
2673686743
- fetch-rate-data.mjs: CME FedWatch (USD), Investing.com rate monitors (all CBs), InvestingLive (fallback) — plus aucune dépendance à rateprobability.com - lib/rateprobability.ts: suppression des appels live rateprobability.com, source unique = cache GitHub Actions (data/rate-probabilities.json) - Logs détaillés pour debugger le premier run GitHub Actions Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
457 lines
18 KiB
JavaScript
457 lines
18 KiB
JavaScript
// Sources (in priority order):
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// 1. CME FedWatch API — USD seul, JSON officieux, fiable
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// 2. Investing.com monitors — toutes CBs, HTML scraped (Cloudflare possible)
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// 3. InvestingLive fallback — articles Giuseppe Dellamotta, hebdo, toutes CBs
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import { writeFileSync, mkdirSync, readFileSync } from "fs";
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// ── Helpers ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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const MONTHS = { Jan:"01",Feb:"02",Mar:"03",Apr:"04",May:"05",Jun:"06",
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Jul:"07",Aug:"08",Sep:"09",Oct:"10",Nov:"11",Dec:"12" };
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function normalizeDate(raw) {
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if (!raw) return null;
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if (/^\d{8}$/.test(raw))
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return `${raw.slice(0,4)}-${raw.slice(4,6)}-${raw.slice(6,8)}`;
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if (/^\d{4}-\d{2}-\d{2}$/.test(raw)) return raw;
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const m = raw.match(/([A-Z][a-z]{2})\s+(\d{1,2}),?\s+(\d{4})/);
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if (m) return `${m[3]}-${MONTHS[m[1]]??'01'}-${m[2].padStart(2,'0')}`;
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return null;
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}
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const CHROME_HEADERS = {
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"User-Agent": "Mozilla/5.0 (Macintosh; Intel Mac OS X 10_15_7) AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko) Chrome/125.0.0.0 Safari/537.36",
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"Accept": "text/html,application/xhtml+xml,application/xml;q=0.9,image/avif,image/webp,*/*;q=0.8",
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"Accept-Language": "en-US,en;q=0.9",
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"Cache-Control": "no-cache",
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"Pragma": "no-cache",
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"Sec-Fetch-Dest": "document",
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"Sec-Fetch-Mode": "navigate",
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"Sec-Fetch-Site": "none",
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"Sec-Fetch-User": "?1",
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"Upgrade-Insecure-Requests": "1",
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};
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// ── 1. CME FedWatch (USD) ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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async function fetchCMEFedWatch() {
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const year = new Date().getFullYear();
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const candidates = [
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// API officieuse FedWatch — essai sur SR3 (SOFR) et ZQ (30-day FF)
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`https://www.cmegroup.com/CmeWS/mvc/MeetingCalendar/V1/getMeetingCalendarByYear.json?marketCode=SR3&year=${year}`,
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`https://www.cmegroup.com/CmeWS/mvc/MeetingCalendar/V1/getMeetingCalendarByYear.json?marketCode=FF&year=${year}`,
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`https://www.cmegroup.com/CmeWS/mvc/MeetingCalendar/V1/getMeetingCalendarByYear.json?marketCode=ZQ&year=${year}`,
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];
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for (const url of candidates) {
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try {
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const res = await fetch(url, {
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headers: {
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...CHROME_HEADERS,
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"Accept": "application/json, text/plain, */*",
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"Referer": "https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html",
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"Origin": "https://www.cmegroup.com",
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"Sec-Fetch-Dest": "empty",
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"Sec-Fetch-Mode": "cors",
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"Sec-Fetch-Site": "same-origin",
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}
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});
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console.log(`[CME] ${url.split('?')[1]} → ${res.status}`);
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if (!res.ok) continue;
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const body = await res.json();
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console.log(`[CME] keys: ${Object.keys(body).join(", ")}`);
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console.log(`[CME] preview: ${JSON.stringify(body).slice(0, 600)}`);
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const parsed = parseCMEBody(body);
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if (parsed) { console.log(`[CME] ✓ ${parsed.today.rows.length} meetings`); return parsed; }
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} catch (e) {
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console.error(`[CME] error: ${e.message}`);
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}
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}
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return null;
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}
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function parseCMEBody(body) {
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// Format A : { meetings: [{ date|meetingDate, currentProbs:{minus25,unch,plus25,...}, impliedRate }] }
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const arr = body.meetings ?? body.data ?? (Array.isArray(body) ? body : null);
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if (!arr?.length) return null;
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const nowIso = new Date().toISOString().slice(0,10);
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let currentRate = null;
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const rows = [];
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for (const m of arr) {
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const dateIso = normalizeDate(
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m.date ?? m.meetingDate ?? m.meetDate ?? m.meeting_date ?? ""
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);
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if (!dateIso || dateIso < nowIso) continue;
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const probs = m.currentProbs ?? m.probs ?? m.probabilities ?? m.probability ?? {};
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const probCut = parseFloat(probs.minus25 ?? probs.cut25 ?? probs["-25"] ?? probs.minus50 ?? 0)
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+ parseFloat(probs.minus50 ?? probs.cut50 ?? probs["-50"] ?? 0);
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const probHike = parseFloat(probs.plus25 ?? probs.hike25 ?? probs["+25"] ?? probs.plus50 ?? 0)
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+ parseFloat(probs.plus50 ?? probs.hike50 ?? probs["+50"] ?? 0);
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const probHold = parseFloat(probs.unch ?? probs.hold ?? probs.unchanged ?? 0);
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const probIsCut = probCut >= probHike;
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const probMovePct = probIsCut ? probCut : probHike;
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const impliedRate = parseFloat(
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m.impliedRate ?? m.implied_rate ?? m.rate ?? m.impliedFedFunds ?? 0
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);
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if (currentRate === null)
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currentRate = parseFloat(m.priorRate ?? m.currentRate ?? m.prior_rate ?? impliedRate ?? 0);
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const changeBps = (impliedRate - (currentRate ?? 0)) * 100;
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const dateLabel = new Date(dateIso + "T12:00:00Z")
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.toLocaleDateString("en-US", { month:"short", day:"numeric" });
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rows.push({
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meeting: dateLabel,
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meeting_iso: dateIso,
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implied_rate_post_meeting: impliedRate,
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prob_move_pct: probMovePct,
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prob_is_cut: probIsCut,
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change_bps: changeBps,
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num_moves: changeBps / 25,
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});
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}
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if (!rows.length) return null;
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return { today: { midpoint: currentRate ?? 0, rows } };
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}
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// ── 2. Investing.com Rate Monitors (all CBs) ──────────────────────────────────
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const IC_SLUGS = {
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USD: "fed-rate-monitor",
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EUR: "ecb-rate-monitor",
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GBP: "boe-rate-monitor",
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JPY: "boj-rate-monitor",
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CAD: "boc-rate-monitor",
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AUD: "rba-rate-monitor",
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NZD: "rbnz-rate-monitor",
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CHF: "snb-rate-monitor",
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};
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// Taux directeurs actuels — fallback si non trouvés dans le HTML
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const FALLBACK_RATES = {
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USD: 4.33, EUR: 2.40, GBP: 4.25, JPY: 0.50,
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CAD: 2.75, AUD: 4.10, NZD: 3.25, CHF: 0.00,
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};
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async function fetchInvestingCom(ccy) {
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const slug = IC_SLUGS[ccy];
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const url = `https://www.investing.com/central-banks/${slug}`;
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try {
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const res = await fetch(url, {
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headers: { ...CHROME_HEADERS, "Referer": "https://www.investing.com/central-banks/" }
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});
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console.log(`[IC/${ccy}] ${res.status}`);
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if (!res.ok) return null;
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const html = await res.text();
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console.log(`[IC/${ccy}] html ${html.length} chars`);
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if (/just a moment|cf-browser-verification|enable javascript/i.test(html)) {
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console.error(`[IC/${ccy}] Cloudflare challenge`);
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return null;
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}
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return parseInvestingComHtml(ccy, html);
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} catch (e) {
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console.error(`[IC/${ccy}] error: ${e.message}`);
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return null;
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}
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}
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function parseInvestingComHtml(ccy, html) {
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// ── Attempt A: __NEXT_DATA__ (Next.js SSR) ────────────────────────────────
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const ndMatch = html.match(/<script id="__NEXT_DATA__"[^>]*>([\s\S]*?)<\/script>/);
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if (ndMatch) {
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try {
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const nd = JSON.parse(ndMatch[1]);
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console.log(`[IC/${ccy}] __NEXT_DATA__ found`);
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const result = parseNextData(ccy, nd);
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if (result) return result;
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} catch (e) { console.error(`[IC/${ccy}] nextData parse: ${e.message}`); }
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}
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// ── Attempt B: JSON-LD / embedded JSON with "meetingDate" or "probability" ─
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const scripts = [...html.matchAll(/<script[^>]*>([\s\S]*?)<\/script>/g)];
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for (const [, content] of scripts) {
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if (!content.includes("meetingDate") && !content.includes("probability")) continue;
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try {
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const json = JSON.parse(content.trim());
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console.log(`[IC/${ccy}] embedded JSON found`);
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const result = parseJsonData(ccy, json);
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if (result) return result;
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} catch {}
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}
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// ── Attempt C: HTML table ──────────────────────────────────────────────────
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return parseRateMonitorTable(ccy, html);
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}
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function parseNextData(ccy, nd) {
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const pageProps = nd?.props?.pageProps ?? nd?.props ?? {};
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console.log(`[IC/${ccy}] pageProps keys: ${Object.keys(pageProps).slice(0,10).join(", ")}`);
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// Navigate common paths where rate monitor data lives
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const candidates = [
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pageProps?.rateMonitorData,
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pageProps?.data?.rateMonitor,
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pageProps?.initialData,
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pageProps?.dehydratedState?.queries?.[0]?.state?.data,
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];
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for (const c of candidates) {
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if (!c) continue;
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const result = parseJsonData(ccy, c);
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if (result) return result;
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}
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// Log for debugging first run
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console.log(`[IC/${ccy}] nextData pageProps preview: ${JSON.stringify(pageProps).slice(0, 400)}`);
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return null;
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}
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function parseJsonData(ccy, json) {
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// Try to find meetings array in various shapes
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const meetings = json?.meetings ?? json?.data?.meetings ?? json?.rows ?? json?.items ?? null;
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if (!Array.isArray(meetings) || !meetings.length) return null;
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const nowIso = new Date().toISOString().slice(0,10);
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const rows = [];
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let currentRate = FALLBACK_RATES[ccy] ?? 0;
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for (const m of meetings) {
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const dateIso = normalizeDate(
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m.meetingDate ?? m.date ?? m.meeting_date ?? m.dateIso ?? ""
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);
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if (!dateIso || dateIso < nowIso) continue;
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// Probabilities can be in many shapes
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const probCut = parseFloat(m.probCut ?? m.cut ?? m.decrease ?? m.minus25 ?? 0)
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+ parseFloat(m.probCut50 ?? m.minus50 ?? 0);
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const probHike = parseFloat(m.probHike ?? m.hike ?? m.increase ?? m.plus25 ?? 0)
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+ parseFloat(m.probHike50 ?? m.plus50 ?? 0);
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const probHold = parseFloat(m.probHold ?? m.hold ?? m.unchanged ?? 0);
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const probIsCut = probCut >= probHike;
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const probMovePct = Math.max(probCut, probHike, 0);
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const impliedRate = parseFloat(
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m.impliedRate ?? m.implied_rate ?? m.rate ?? currentRate
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);
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const changeBps = (impliedRate - currentRate) * 100;
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const dateLabel = new Date(dateIso + "T12:00:00Z")
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.toLocaleDateString("en-US", { month:"short", day:"numeric" });
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rows.push({
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meeting: dateLabel, meeting_iso: dateIso,
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implied_rate_post_meeting: impliedRate,
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prob_move_pct: probMovePct, prob_is_cut: probIsCut,
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change_bps: changeBps, num_moves: changeBps / 25,
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});
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}
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if (!rows.length) return null;
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return { today: { midpoint: currentRate, rows } };
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}
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function parseRateMonitorTable(ccy, html) {
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// Find all <table> blocks
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const tables = [...html.matchAll(/<table[\s\S]*?<\/table>/gi)];
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console.log(`[IC/${ccy}] ${tables.length} tables found`);
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for (const [table] of tables) {
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// Extract header row to detect probability columns
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const headers = [...table.matchAll(/<th[^>]*>([\s\S]*?)<\/th>/gi)]
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.map(m => m[1].replace(/<[^>]+>/g,"").trim().toLowerCase());
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const hasProbCols = headers.some(h => /cut|hike|unch|hold|basis|bps|prob|\-\d|\+\d/.test(h));
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const hasDate = headers.some(h => /meeting|date|month/.test(h));
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if (!hasProbCols || !hasDate) continue;
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console.log(`[IC/${ccy}] table headers: ${headers.join(" | ")}`);
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const dateIdx = headers.findIndex(h => /meeting|date|month/.test(h));
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const cutCols = headers.reduce((acc,h,i) => /cut|\-25|\-50|decr/.test(h) ? [...acc,i] : acc, []);
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const hikeCols = headers.reduce((acc,h,i) => /hike|\+25|\+50|incr/.test(h) ? [...acc,i] : acc, []);
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const holdCols = headers.reduce((acc,h,i) => /unch|hold|no.?change/.test(h) ? [...acc,i] : acc, []);
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const rateIdx = headers.findIndex(h => /implied|rate/.test(h));
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const rows2 = [];
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const nowIso = new Date().toISOString().slice(0,10);
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const trs = [...table.matchAll(/<tr[\s\S]*?<\/tr>/gi)].slice(1); // skip header
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for (const [tr] of trs) {
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const cells = [...tr.matchAll(/<td[^>]*>([\s\S]*?)<\/td>/gi)]
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.map(m => m[1].replace(/<[^>]+>/g,"").trim());
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if (cells.length < 2) continue;
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const dateIso = normalizeDate(cells[dateIdx] ?? "");
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if (!dateIso || dateIso < nowIso) continue;
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const pct = s => parseFloat((s ?? "0").replace(/[^0-9.]/g,"")) || 0;
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const probCut = cutCols.reduce((s,i) => s + pct(cells[i]), 0);
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const probHike = hikeCols.reduce((s,i) => s + pct(cells[i]), 0);
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const probIsCut = probCut >= probHike;
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const probMovePct = Math.max(probCut, probHike);
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const impliedRate = rateIdx >= 0 ? pct(cells[rateIdx]) : FALLBACK_RATES[ccy] ?? 0;
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const changeBps = (impliedRate - (FALLBACK_RATES[ccy] ?? 0)) * 100;
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const dateLabel = new Date(dateIso + "T12:00:00Z")
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.toLocaleDateString("en-US", { month:"short", day:"numeric" });
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rows2.push({
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meeting: dateLabel, meeting_iso: dateIso,
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implied_rate_post_meeting: impliedRate,
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prob_move_pct: probMovePct, prob_is_cut: probIsCut,
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change_bps: changeBps, num_moves: changeBps / 25,
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});
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}
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if (rows2.length) {
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console.log(`[IC/${ccy}] ✓ table parsed: ${rows2.length} rows`);
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return { today: { midpoint: FALLBACK_RATES[ccy] ?? 0, rows: rows2 } };
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}
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}
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console.warn(`[IC/${ccy}] no parseable table found`);
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return null;
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}
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// ── 3. InvestingLive fallback (Giuseppe Dellamotta, hebdomadaire) ─────────────
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const IL_CB_MAP = {
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fed: "USD", fomc: "USD",
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ecb: "EUR",
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boe: "GBP",
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boj: "JPY",
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boc: "CAD",
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rba: "AUD",
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rbnz: "NZD",
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snb: "CHF",
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};
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async function fetchInvestingLive() {
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for (let daysAgo = 0; daysAgo <= 14; daysAgo++) {
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const d = new Date(Date.now() - daysAgo * 86_400_000);
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const yyyymmdd = d.toISOString().slice(0,10).replace(/-/g,"");
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const url = `https://investinglive.com/news/how-have-interest-rate-expectations-changed-after-this-weeks-event-${yyyymmdd}/`;
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try {
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const res = await fetch(url, { headers: { "User-Agent": CHROME_HEADERS["User-Agent"] } });
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if (!res.ok) continue;
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const html = await res.text();
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console.log(`[IL] found article ${yyyymmdd}`);
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return { data: parseILArticle(html), date: d.toISOString().slice(0,10) };
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} catch {}
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}
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return { data: {}, date: null };
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}
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function parseILArticle(html) {
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const results = {};
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// Extract articleBody from JSON-LD
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const jldMatch = html.match(/"articleBody"\s*:\s*"([\s\S]*?)(?<!\\)"/);
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const text = jldMatch
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? jldMatch[1].replace(/\\n/g," ").replace(/\\"/g,'"')
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: html.replace(/<[^>]+>/g," ");
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// Pattern: "CB: XX bps (YY% probability of rate hike/cut/no change)"
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const re = /\b(fed|fomc|ecb|boe|boj|boc|rba|rbnz|snb)\b[\s\S]{0,150}?(\d+)\s*bps?[\s\S]{0,80}?(\d+)%\s*probability\s*of\s*(rate\s*)?(hike|cut|no.?change)/gi;
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for (const m of text.matchAll(re)) {
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const ccy = IL_CB_MAP[m[1].toLowerCase()];
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if (!ccy || results[ccy]) continue;
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const bps = parseInt(m[2]);
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const probPct = parseInt(m[3]);
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const isHike = /hike/i.test(m[5]);
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const isNoChg = /no.?change/i.test(m[5]);
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results[ccy] = { bpsYearEnd: isHike ? bps : -bps, probMovePct: isNoChg ? 0 : probPct, isCut: !isHike && !isNoChg };
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}
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console.log(`[IL] parsed: ${Object.keys(results).join(", ")}`);
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return results;
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}
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function buildILFallback(ccy, il) {
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const nowIso = new Date().toISOString().slice(0,10);
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const yearEnd = `${new Date().getFullYear()}-12-31`;
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const rate = FALLBACK_RATES[ccy] ?? 0;
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return {
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today: {
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midpoint: rate,
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rows: [{
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meeting: "Dec",
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meeting_iso: yearEnd,
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implied_rate_post_meeting: rate + il.bpsYearEnd / 100,
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prob_move_pct: il.probMovePct ?? 50,
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prob_is_cut: il.isCut,
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change_bps: il.bpsYearEnd,
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num_moves: Math.abs(il.bpsYearEnd) / 25,
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}]
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}
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};
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}
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// ── Main ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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const CCYS = ["USD","EUR","GBP","JPY","CAD","AUD","NZD","CHF"];
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const results = {};
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// 1 — CME FedWatch → USD
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console.log("\n=== CME FedWatch ===");
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const cmeData = await fetchCMEFedWatch();
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if (cmeData) { results["USD"] = cmeData; console.log("[CME] USD ✓"); }
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// 2 — Investing.com → all CBs (USD as backup if CME failed)
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console.log("\n=== Investing.com Rate Monitors ===");
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for (const ccy of CCYS) {
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if (results[ccy]) { console.log(`[IC/${ccy}] skipped (CME)`); continue; }
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const data = await fetchInvestingCom(ccy);
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if (data) results[ccy] = data;
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await new Promise(r => setTimeout(r, 600));
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}
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// 3 — InvestingLive → fallback for any missing CB
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const missing = CCYS.filter(c => !results[c]);
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if (missing.length) {
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console.log(`\n=== InvestingLive fallback (missing: ${missing.join(", ")}) ===`);
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const { data: ilData } = await fetchInvestingLive();
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for (const ccy of missing) {
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if (ilData[ccy]) {
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results[ccy] = buildILFallback(ccy, ilData[ccy]);
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console.log(`[IL] ${ccy} ✓ (${ilData[ccy].bpsYearEnd}bps year-end)`);
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}
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}
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}
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// ── Previous week rotation ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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let previousWeek = null, previousWeekFetchedAt = null;
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try {
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const existing = JSON.parse(readFileSync("data/rate-probabilities.json","utf8"));
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const ageMs = Date.now() - new Date(existing.fetchedAt).getTime();
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const day = 86400000;
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if (ageMs >= 5*day && ageMs <= 9*day) {
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previousWeek = existing.data; previousWeekFetchedAt = existing.fetchedAt;
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console.log(`\nRotated ${(ageMs/day).toFixed(1)}d-old data → previousWeek`);
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} else if (existing.previousWeek) {
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const prevAge = Date.now() - new Date(existing.previousWeekFetchedAt).getTime();
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if (prevAge < 11*day) { previousWeek = existing.previousWeek; previousWeekFetchedAt = existing.previousWeekFetchedAt; }
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}
|
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} catch {}
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|
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mkdirSync("data", { recursive: true });
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|
writeFileSync("data/rate-probabilities.json", JSON.stringify({
|
|
data: results,
|
|
fetchedAt: new Date().toISOString(),
|
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...(previousWeek ? { previousWeek, previousWeekFetchedAt } : {}),
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}, null, 2));
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|
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const saved = CCYS.filter(c => results[c]);
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const failed = CCYS.filter(c => !results[c]);
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console.log(`\n✓ Saved : ${saved.join(", ")}`);
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if (failed.length) console.log(`✗ Failed : ${failed.join(", ")}`);
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