{
  "updated_at": "2026-07-08",
  "source": "https://www.atlantafed.org/cenfis/market-probability-tracker",
  "note": "Probabilités dérivées des options sur futures SOFR 3 mois (CME) — méthodologie Atlanta Fed, mise à jour quotidienne. Fourchettes exprimées en bps (350bps-375bps = 3.50%-3.75%). Alternative aux 30-day Fed Fund Futures (Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor).",
  "asOf": "2026-07-07",
  "windows": [
    {
      "windowStartIso": "2026-09-16",
      "anchorRange": "350bps - 375bps",
      "probCutPct": 1.11,
      "probHikePct": 72.36,
      "rate25": 373.91,
      "rateMean": 389.01,
      "rateMode": 377.79,
      "rate75": 402.99,
      "distribution": [
        {
          "rangeLabel": "350bps - 375bps",
          "probPct": 27.21
        },
        {
          "rangeLabel": "375bps - 400bps",
          "probPct": 45.73
        },
        {
          "rangeLabel": "400bps - 425bps",
          "probPct": 21.41
        },
        {
          "rangeLabel": "425bps - 450bps",
          "probPct": 5.65
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "windowStartIso": "2026-12-16",
      "anchorRange": "350bps - 375bps",
      "probCutPct": 6.94,
      "probHikePct": 74.76,
      "rate25": 374.76,
      "rateMean": 402.98,
      "rateMode": 380.27,
      "rate75": 430.76,
      "distribution": [
        {
          "rangeLabel": "325bps - 350bps",
          "probPct": 5.09
        },
        {
          "rangeLabel": "350bps - 375bps",
          "probPct": 19.04
        },
        {
          "rangeLabel": "375bps - 400bps",
          "probPct": 24.57
        },
        {
          "rangeLabel": "400bps - 425bps",
          "probPct": 22.23
        },
        {
          "rangeLabel": "425bps - 450bps",
          "probPct": 18.38
        },
        {
          "rangeLabel": "450bps - 475bps",
          "probPct": 7.52
        },
        {
          "rangeLabel": "475bps - 500bps",
          "probPct": 2.16
        },
        {
          "rangeLabel": "500bps - 525bps",
          "probPct": 1.01
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "windowStartIso": "2027-03-17",
      "anchorRange": "350bps - 375bps",
      "probCutPct": 12.73,
      "probHikePct": 74.32,
      "rate25": 373.96,
      "rateMean": 408.93,
      "rateMode": 397.83,
      "rate75": 447.02,
      "distribution": [
        {
          "rangeLabel": "225bps - 250bps",
          "probPct": 0.55
        },
        {
          "rangeLabel": "250bps - 275bps",
          "probPct": 0.81
        },
        {
          "rangeLabel": "275bps - 300bps",
          "probPct": 1.1
        },
        {
          "rangeLabel": "300bps - 325bps",
          "probPct": 2.25
        },
        {
          "rangeLabel": "325bps - 350bps",
          "probPct": 6.3
        },
        {
          "rangeLabel": "350bps - 375bps",
          "probPct": 13.56
        },
        {
          "rangeLabel": "375bps - 400bps",
          "probPct": 19.03
        },
        {
          "rangeLabel": "400bps - 425bps",
          "probPct": 18.87
        },
        {
          "rangeLabel": "425bps - 450bps",
          "probPct": 15.35
        },
        {
          "rangeLabel": "450bps - 475bps",
          "probPct": 10.6
        },
        {
          "rangeLabel": "475bps - 500bps",
          "probPct": 5.95
        },
        {
          "rangeLabel": "500bps - 525bps",
          "probPct": 2.97
        },
        {
          "rangeLabel": "525bps - 550bps",
          "probPct": 1.62
        },
        {
          "rangeLabel": "550bps - 575bps",
          "probPct": 1.04
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "windowStartIso": "2027-06-16",
      "anchorRange": "350bps - 375bps",
      "probCutPct": 19.16,
      "probHikePct": 69.12,
      "rate25": 363.67,
      "rateMean": 407,
      "rateMode": 400.61,
      "rate75": 452.48,
      "distribution": [
        {
          "rangeLabel": "150bps - 175bps",
          "probPct": 0.39
        },
        {
          "rangeLabel": "175bps - 200bps",
          "probPct": 0.42
        },
        {
          "rangeLabel": "200bps - 225bps",
          "probPct": 0.56
        },
        {
          "rangeLabel": "225bps - 250bps",
          "probPct": 0.88
        },
        {
          "rangeLabel": "250bps - 275bps",
          "probPct": 1.41
        },
        {
          "rangeLabel": "275bps - 300bps",
          "probPct": 2.31
        },
        {
          "rangeLabel": "300bps - 325bps",
          "probPct": 4.1
        },
        {
          "rangeLabel": "325bps - 350bps",
          "probPct": 7.54
        },
        {
          "rangeLabel": "350bps - 375bps",
          "probPct": 12.3
        },
        {
          "rangeLabel": "375bps - 400bps",
          "probPct": 16.01
        },
        {
          "rangeLabel": "400bps - 425bps",
          "probPct": 16.15
        },
        {
          "rangeLabel": "425bps - 450bps",
          "probPct": 13.07
        },
        {
          "rangeLabel": "450bps - 475bps",
          "probPct": 9.11
        },
        {
          "rangeLabel": "475bps - 500bps",
          "probPct": 5.9
        },
        {
          "rangeLabel": "500bps - 525bps",
          "probPct": 3.73
        },
        {
          "rangeLabel": "525bps - 550bps",
          "probPct": 2.41
        },
        {
          "rangeLabel": "550bps - 575bps",
          "probPct": 1.65
        },
        {
          "rangeLabel": "575bps - 600bps",
          "probPct": 1.19
        },
        {
          "rangeLabel": "600bps - 625bps",
          "probPct": 0.86
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "windowStartIso": "2027-09-15",
      "anchorRange": null,
      "probCutPct": null,
      "probHikePct": null,
      "rate25": 349.37,
      "rateMean": 401.41,
      "rateMode": 391.24,
      "rate75": 451.98,
      "distribution": []
    },
    {
      "windowStartIso": "2027-12-15",
      "anchorRange": null,
      "probCutPct": null,
      "probHikePct": null,
      "rate25": 336.41,
      "rateMean": 394.72,
      "rateMode": 386.96,
      "rate75": 448.58,
      "distribution": []
    },
    {
      "windowStartIso": "2028-03-15",
      "anchorRange": null,
      "probCutPct": null,
      "probHikePct": null,
      "rate25": 325.08,
      "rateMean": 390.04,
      "rateMode": 382.35,
      "rate75": 450.08,
      "distribution": []
    },
    {
      "windowStartIso": "2028-06-21",
      "anchorRange": null,
      "probCutPct": null,
      "probHikePct": null,
      "rate25": 315.28,
      "rateMean": 387.51,
      "rateMode": 382.48,
      "rate75": 451.82,
      "distribution": []
    },
    {
      "windowStartIso": "2028-09-20",
      "anchorRange": null,
      "probCutPct": null,
      "probHikePct": null,
      "rate25": 311.02,
      "rateMean": 386.52,
      "rateMode": 383.63,
      "rate75": 452.56,
      "distribution": []
    },
    {
      "windowStartIso": "2028-12-20",
      "anchorRange": null,
      "probCutPct": null,
      "probHikePct": null,
      "rate25": 307.04,
      "rateMean": 386.45,
      "rateMode": 376.34,
      "rate75": 454.85,
      "distribution": []
    },
    {
      "windowStartIso": "2029-03-21",
      "anchorRange": null,
      "probCutPct": null,
      "probHikePct": null,
      "rate25": 291.57,
      "rateMean": 386.97,
      "rateMode": 363.95,
      "rate75": 461.23,
      "distribution": []
    },
    {
      "windowStartIso": "2029-06-20",
      "anchorRange": null,
      "probCutPct": null,
      "probHikePct": null,
      "rate25": 268.96,
      "rateMean": 387,
      "rateMode": 354.61,
      "rate75": 506.12,
      "distribution": []
    }
  ]
}