feat: retail sales MoM (TE scraping), smart cache, IL weekly delta arrows, OIS phase labels

- Retail Sales: switch from FRED OECD series (4-6w lag) to Trading Economics real-time scraping for all 8 currencies; label changed to "Retail Sales MoM" - Cache TTL: 24h → 1h base + 15min hot when ForexFactory detects recent high-impact event - Rate probability trend arrows: server-side IL weekly delta (current vs previous Dellamotta article) with per-metric thresholds (prob ≥3%/10%, bps ≥10/25) and colour coding (sky=dovish, amber=hawkish) - Cycle phase: replaced FRED trend heuristic with OIS-based logic using peakMeeting.probMovePct, probIsCut, and yearEndBps; dynamic descriptions include real market numbers - investinglive.ts: find both current + previous article to compute week-over-week delta server-side Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-27 20:37:45 +00:00 · 2026-06-08 19:41:50 +02:00
parent 1a2ea02b22
commit f82afe9d5b
5 changed files with 351 additions and 118 deletions
@@ -9,7 +9,7 @@ import { fetchTECoreInflation, fetchTEMoMInflation, fetchTEInflationYoY, fetchTE
 import { fetchTEInflationForecasts } from "@/lib/tradingeconomics";

 const FRED_BASE = "https://api.stlouisfed.org/fred/series/observations";
-const REVALIDATE = 86400; // cache 24h
+const REVALIDATE = 3600; // cache 1h (les données FRED sont disponibles ~1h après publication)

 // ── FRED ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

@@ -428,6 +428,49 @@ async function scrapeTeGdp(country: string): Promise<{ value: number | null; pre
  } catch { return empty; }
 }

+// ── Trading Economics — Retail Sales MoM (country-list, toutes devises en une requête) ─────
+// Parse le tableau https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/retail-sales-mom
+// Valeurs positives : <td data-heatmap-value="N">0.5</td>
+// Valeurs négatives : <td data-heatmap-value="N"><span class='te-value-negative'>-0.4</span></td>
+
+let _teRetailMoMCache: { data: Map<string, { value: number; prev: number | null }>; ts: number } | null = null;
+
+async function fetchTeRetailSalesMoM(): Promise<Map<string, { value: number; prev: number | null }>> {
+  if (_teRetailMoMCache && Date.now() - _teRetailMoMCache.ts < 3_600_000) {
+    return _teRetailMoMCache.data;
+  }
+  const result = new Map<string, { value: number; prev: number | null }>();
+  const slugToCurrency: Record<string, string> = {
+    "united-states": "USD", "euro-area": "EUR", "united-kingdom": "GBP",
+    "japan": "JPY", "switzerland": "CHF", "canada": "CAD",
+    "australia": "AUD", "new-zealand": "NZD",
+  };
+  try {
+    const res = await fetch("https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/retail-sales-mom", {
+      next: { revalidate: 3600 },
+      headers: {
+        "User-Agent":      "Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 10.0; Win64; x64) AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko) Chrome/124.0.0.0 Safari/537.36",
+        "Accept":          "text/html,application/xhtml+xml,application/xml;q=0.9,*/*;q=0.8",
+        "Accept-Language": "en-US,en;q=0.5",
+      },
+    });
+    if (!res.ok) return result;
+    const html = await res.text();
+    // Regex robuste : capture slug + valeur courante + valeur précédente
+    // Gère les valeurs négatives wrappées dans <span class='te-value-negative'>
+    const re = /<a href='\/([^']+)\/retail-sales'>\s*[^<]+\s*<\/a><\/td>\s*<td[^>]*>(?:<span[^>]*>)?([-\d.]+)(?:<\/span>)?<\/td>\s*<td>(?:<span[^>]*>)?([-\d.]+)(?:<\/span>)?<\/td>/g;
+    let m: RegExpExecArray | null;
+    while ((m = re.exec(html)) !== null) {
+      const currency = slugToCurrency[m[1]];
+      if (currency) {
+        result.set(currency, { value: parseFloat(m[2]), prev: parseFloat(m[3]) });
+      }
+    }
+  } catch { /* retourner map vide si TE indisponible */ }
+  _teRetailMoMCache = { data: result, ts: Date.now() };
+  return result;
+}
+
 // ── Trading Economics — Balance commerciale (niveau, normalisé en Milliards devise locale)
 // Format meta TE :
 //   "X recorded a trade deficit/surplus of Y.YY EUR/USD/etc. Billion/Million in Month of Year"
@@ -618,14 +661,39 @@ function parseTeF(s: string | null | undefined): number | null {

 const _cache = new Map<string, { data: unknown; ts: number }>();

+// TTL adaptatif : 15 min si un event à fort/moyen impact vient d'être publié dans les 2h
+// pour cette devise, sinon 1h.
+async function getSmartTtl(currency: string): Promise<number> {
+  const BASE_TTL  = 3_600_000;  // 1h par défaut
+  const HOT_TTL   = 900_000;    // 15min après publication récente
+  const WINDOW_MS = 7_200_000;  // fenêtre de 2h
+  try {
+    const events = await fetchFFThisWeek();
+    const now    = Date.now();
+    const hasRecent = events.some(e => {
+      const t = new Date(e.date).getTime();
+      return (
+        e.country === currency &&
+        e.actual  !== ""       &&  // données publiées (actual rempli)
+        (e.impact === "High" || e.impact === "Medium") &&
+        t <= now               &&  // passé (pas futur)
+        now - t < WINDOW_MS        // dans les 2h
+      );
+    });
+    return hasRecent ? HOT_TTL : BASE_TTL;
+  } catch { return BASE_TTL; }
+}
+
 export async function GET(req: NextRequest) {
  const currency = (new URL(req.url).searchParams.get("currency") ?? "").toUpperCase() as Currency;
  const series   = FRED_SERIES[currency];
  if (!series) return NextResponse.json({ error: "Unknown currency" }, { status: 400 });

+  // TTL smart : 15 min si publication récente, sinon 1h
+  const ttl        = await getSmartTtl(currency);
  const cached     = _cache.get(currency);
  const staleCache = cached ?? null;
-  if (cached && Date.now() - cached.ts < 86_400_000) return NextResponse.json(cached.data);
+  if (cached && Date.now() - cached.ts < ttl) return NextResponse.json(cached.data);

  const key = process.env.FRED_API_KEY;
  if (!key) return NextResponse.json({ error: "FRED_API_KEY missing" }, { status: 500 });
@@ -956,6 +1024,22 @@ export async function GET(req: NextRequest) {
    indicators.cpiMoM = toIndicatorPct(_cpiCoreObs);
  }

+  // ── Retail Sales MoM : override depuis Trading Economics (plus à jour que FRED OCDE) ────────
+  {
+    const teRS = await fetchTeRetailSalesMoM();
+    const rs   = teRS.get(currency);
+    if (rs !== undefined) {
+      const surprise = rs.prev !== null ? parseFloat((rs.value - rs.prev).toFixed(2)) : null;
+      indicators.retailSales = {
+        value:       rs.value,
+        prev:        rs.prev,
+        surprise,
+        trend:       surprise !== null ? (surprise > 0 ? "up" : surprise < 0 ? "down" : "flat") : null,
+        lastUpdated: today,
+      };
+    }
+  }
+
  // ── PMI (Mfg + Services + Composite) + consensus FF ──────────────────────────
  const toDateObj = new Date();
  toDateObj.setDate(toDateObj.getDate() + 21);
@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 "use client";

-import { useEffect, useState, useCallback } from "react";
+import { useEffect, useState, useCallback, useMemo } from "react";
 import { motion, AnimatePresence } from "framer-motion";
 import {
  TrendingUp, TrendingDown, Minus, Loader2, Database,
@@ -15,7 +15,7 @@ import { CURRENCY_META, COUNTRY_PROFILES } from "@/lib/constants";
 import { biasLabel, calcMacroScore } from "@/lib/scoring";
 import { saveCache, loadCache, formatCacheDate } from "@/lib/localCache";
 import type { Currency, BiasPhase, RateExpectation } from "@/lib/types";
-import type { CBRatePath } from "@/lib/rateprobability";
+import type { CBRatePath, ILWeeklyDelta } from "@/lib/rateprobability";
 import type { SentimentEntry, CotEntry } from "@/lib/types";
 import NarrativeButton from "./NarrativeButton";

@@ -76,6 +76,48 @@ function phaseLabel(p: BiasPhase) {
  return "Transition";
 }

+// ─── Phase depuis OIS (source primaire) ──────────────────────────────────────
+// Ordre de priorité :
+//  1. Resserrement actif   : proba de hausse >60% ET bps annuels >+15
+//  2. Assouplissement actif: proba de coupe  >60% OU bps annuels <−40
+//  3. Pause dovish         : bps annuels ≤ −15 (coupes attendues, pas imminentes)
+//  4. Pause hawkish        : bps annuels ≥ +20 OU biais sans coupe modérément pricé
+//  5. Transition           : anticipations neutres (fin de cycle, CB en attente)
+function computePhaseFromOIS(ratePath: CBRatePath | null): BiasPhase | null {
+  if (!ratePath?.peakMeeting) return null;
+  const yearEndBps = ratePath.yearEndImplied !== null
+    ? Math.round((ratePath.yearEndImplied - ratePath.currentRate) * 100)
+    : 0;
+  const { probMovePct, probIsCut } = ratePath.peakMeeting;
+  if (!probIsCut && probMovePct > 60 && yearEndBps >= 15) return "tightening";
+  if (probIsCut && (probMovePct > 60 || yearEndBps <= -40))  return "easing";
+  if (yearEndBps <= -15)                                      return "dovish_pause";
+  if (yearEndBps >= 20 || (!probIsCut && probMovePct > 40 && yearEndBps > 5)) return "hawkish_pause";
+  return "transition";
+}
+
+// ─── Description contextuelle de la phase (avec vrais chiffres OIS) ──────────
+function phaseDescription(phase: BiasPhase, ratePath: CBRatePath | null): string {
+  const yearEndBps = (ratePath?.yearEndImplied != null && ratePath?.currentRate != null)
+    ? Math.round((ratePath.yearEndImplied - ratePath.currentRate) * 100)
+    : null;
+  const peak   = ratePath?.peakMeeting;
+  const bpsStr = yearEndBps !== null ? `${yearEndBps > 0 ? "+" : ""}${yearEndBps}bps fin d'an` : "";
+  const probStr = peak ? `${peak.probMovePct.toFixed(0)}% de ${peak.probIsCut ? "coupe" : "hausse"} (${peak.label})` : "";
+  switch (phase) {
+    case "tightening":
+      return `Cycle de resserrement actif — ${probStr}${bpsStr ? ` · ${bpsStr}` : ""}. Surveiller : inflation, emploi solide, PMI > 50.`;
+    case "easing":
+      return `Cycle d'assouplissement — ${probStr}${bpsStr ? ` · ${bpsStr}` : ""}. Surveiller : désinflation, ralentissement emploi, PMI < 50.`;
+    case "dovish_pause":
+      return `Pause dovish${bpsStr ? ` — ${bpsStr} anticipés` : ""}. Prochaine réunion stable mais coupes attendues plus tard. Surveiller : timing désinflation.`;
+    case "hawkish_pause":
+      return `Pause hawkish${bpsStr ? ` — ${bpsStr} anticipés` : ""}. CB en attente. Surveiller : regain d'inflation ou fort ralentissement.`;
+    case "transition":
+      return `Anticipations neutres${bpsStr ? ` (${bpsStr})` : ""}. CB données-dépendantes — tous les indicateurs comptent.`;
+  }
+}
+
 function scoreDir(score: number): SignalDir {
  if (score >= 3) return "bullish";
  if (score <= -3) return "bearish";
@@ -165,6 +207,29 @@ function trendDir(t: "up"|"down"|"flat"|null): SignalDir {
  return "neutral";
 }

+// ─── RpArrow : flèche de tendance pour probabilités de taux (delta IL hebdo) ──
+// delta         = valeur_actuelle - valeur_précédent_article
+// isBearishIfUp = true si une hausse du delta est baissière pour la devise
+
+function RpArrow({
+  delta, isBearishIfPositive, suffix, strongT, modT,
+}: {
+  delta: number; isBearishIfPositive: boolean; suffix: string; strongT: number; modT: number;
+}) {
+  const abs = Math.abs(delta);
+  if (abs < modT) return null;
+  const strong = abs >= strongT;
+  const up     = delta > 0;
+  const bearish = isBearishIfPositive ? up : !up;
+  const color   = bearish ? "text-sky-400" : "text-amber-400";
+  const arrow   = strong ? (up ? "↑↑" : "↓↓") : (up ? "↑" : "↓");
+  return (
+    <span className={`font-bold ${color}`}>
+      {arrow}{up ? "+" : ""}{Math.abs(Math.round(abs * 10) / 10)}{suffix}
+    </span>
+  );
+}
+
 // ─── Sous-composants ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

 function MacroBlock({ title, children }: { title: string; children: React.ReactNode }) {
@@ -260,7 +325,15 @@ export default function CurrencyCard({

  // ── State ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
  const [data, setData]           = useState<MacroData | null>(null);
-  const [phase, setPhase]         = useState<BiasPhase>("hawkish_pause");
+  // Phase dérivée des probabilités OIS (source primaire) ou du trend FRED (fallback)
+  const phase = useMemo<BiasPhase>(() => {
+    const oisPhase = computePhaseFromOIS(ratePath);
+    if (oisPhase) return oisPhase;
+    const rateInd = data?.indicators?.policyRate;
+    if (rateInd?.trend === "up")   return "tightening";
+    if (rateInd?.trend === "down") return "easing";
+    return "hawkish_pause";
+  }, [ratePath, data]);
  const [loading, setLoading]     = useState(true);
  const [rateExp, setRateExp]     = useState<RateExpectation | null>(null);
  const [fromCache, setFromCache] = useState(false);
@@ -293,21 +366,12 @@ export default function CurrencyCard({
      setFromCache(false);
      setCacheAge(null);
      saveCache(cacheKey, merged);
-
-      const rateInd = merged.indicators.policyRate;
-      if (rateInd?.trend === "up")        setPhase("tightening");
-      else if (rateInd?.trend === "down") setPhase("easing");
-      else                                setPhase("hawkish_pause");
    } catch {
      const cached = loadCache<MacroData>(cacheKey);
      if (cached) {
        setData(cached.data);
        setFromCache(true);
        setCacheAge(formatCacheDate(cached.savedAt));
-        const rateInd = cached.data.indicators.policyRate;
-        if (rateInd?.trend === "up")        setPhase("tightening");
-        else if (rateInd?.trend === "down") setPhase("easing");
-        else                                setPhase("hawkish_pause");
      }
    } finally {
      setLoading(false);
@@ -505,7 +569,7 @@ export default function CurrencyCard({
    { label: "PMI Mfg",        value: inds?.pmiMfg?.value      != null ? `${inds.pmiMfg.value.toFixed(1)}`       : "", sig: inds?.pmiMfg?.value      != null ? (inds.pmiMfg.value > 50 ? 1 : -1)      : 0 },
    { label: "PMI Services",   value: inds?.pmiServices?.value  != null ? `${inds.pmiServices.value.toFixed(1)}`  : "", sig: inds?.pmiServices?.value  != null ? (inds.pmiServices.value > 50 ? 1 : -1)  : 0 },
    { label: "PIB QoQ",        value: inds?.gdp?.value         != null ? `${inds.gdp.value > 0 ? "+" : ""}${inds.gdp.value.toFixed(2)}%`         : "", sig: (() => { const s = inds?.gdp?.surprise;         return s == null ? 0 : s > 0.3 ? 1 : s < -0.3 ? -1 : 0; })() },
-    { label: "Retail Sales",   value: inds?.retailSales?.value  != null ? `${inds.retailSales.value > 0 ? "+" : ""}${inds.retailSales.value.toFixed(2)}%` : "", sig: (() => { const s = inds?.retailSales?.surprise;  return s == null ? 0 : s > 0.3 ? 1 : s < -0.3 ? -1 : 0; })() },
+    { label: "Retail Sales MoM", value: inds?.retailSales?.value  != null ? `${inds.retailSales.value > 0 ? "+" : ""}${inds.retailSales.value.toFixed(2)}%` : "", sig: (() => { const s = inds?.retailSales?.surprise;  return s == null ? 0 : s > 0.3 ? 1 : s < -0.3 ? -1 : 0; })() },
    { label: "Chômage",        value: inds?.unemployment?.value != null ? `${inds.unemployment.value.toFixed(2)}%` : "", sig: (() => { const s = inds?.unemployment?.surprise; return s == null ? 0 : s < -0.3 ? 1 : s > 0.3 ? -1 : 0; })() },
    { label: "Emploi",         value: inds?.employment?.value  != null ? `${inds.employment.value > 0 ? "+" : ""}${inds.employment.value.toFixed(1)}k` : "", sig: (() => { const s = inds?.employment?.surprise;  return s == null ? 0 : s > 10 ? 1 : s < -10 ? -1 : 0; })() },
  ].filter(c => c.value !== "");
@@ -641,23 +705,49 @@ export default function CurrencyCard({
                      </LineChart>
                    </ResponsiveContainer>
                    {ratePath.peakMeeting && (
-                      <div className="flex items-center justify-between mt-1 text-[10px]">
-                        <span className="text-slate-600">
-                          Pic : <span className="text-slate-400">{ratePath.peakMeeting.label}</span>
-                        </span>
-                        <span className={ratePath.peakMeeting.probIsCut ? "text-sky-400 font-bold" : "text-red-400 font-bold"}>
-                          {ratePath.peakMeeting.probMovePct.toFixed(0)}% {ratePath.peakMeeting.probIsCut ? "Cut" : "Hike"}
-                        </span>
-                        {ratePath.yearEndImplied !== null && (() => {
-                          const bps = Math.round((ratePath.yearEndImplied! - ratePath.currentRate) * 100);
-                          const cls = bps < 0 ? "text-sky-400 font-bold" : bps > 0 ? "text-red-400 font-bold" : "text-slate-500";
-                          return (
-                            <span className={cls} title={`Taux actuel: ${ratePath.currentRate.toFixed(2)}% → fin an: ${ratePath.yearEndImplied!.toFixed(2)}%`}>
-                              {bps > 0 ? "+" : ""}{bps}bps fin an
+                      <>
+                        <div className="flex items-center justify-between mt-1 text-[10px]">
+                          <span className="text-slate-600">
+                            Pic : <span className="text-slate-400">{ratePath.peakMeeting.label}</span>
+                          </span>
+                          <span className={ratePath.peakMeeting.probIsCut ? "text-sky-400 font-bold" : "text-red-400 font-bold"}>
+                            {ratePath.peakMeeting.probMovePct.toFixed(0)}% {ratePath.peakMeeting.probIsCut ? "Cut" : "Hike"}
+                          </span>
+                          {ratePath.yearEndImplied !== null && (() => {
+                            const bps = Math.round((ratePath.yearEndImplied! - ratePath.currentRate) * 100);
+                            const cls = bps < 0 ? "text-sky-400 font-bold" : bps > 0 ? "text-red-400 font-bold" : "text-slate-500";
+                            return (
+                              <span className={cls} title={`Taux actuel: ${ratePath.currentRate.toFixed(2)}% → fin an: ${ratePath.yearEndImplied!.toFixed(2)}%`}>
+                                {bps > 0 ? "+" : ""}{bps}bps fin an
+                              </span>
+                            );
+                          })()}
+                        </div>
+                        {/* ── Flèches de tendance vs article IL semaine précédente ── */}
+                        {ratePath.ilDelta && (Math.abs(ratePath.ilDelta.probDelta) >= 3 || Math.abs(ratePath.ilDelta.bpsDelta) >= 10) && (
+                          <div className="flex items-center gap-2 mt-0.5 text-[9px] text-slate-600">
+                            <span title={`vs article du ${ratePath.ilDelta.prevDate}`}>
+                              vs sem. préc. :
                            </span>
-                          );
-                        })()}
-                      </div>
+                            <RpArrow
+                              delta={ratePath.ilDelta.probDelta}
+                              isBearishIfPositive={ratePath.ilDelta.isCut}
+                              suffix="%"
+                              strongT={10}
+                              modT={3}
+                            />
+                            {ratePath.ilDelta.bpsDelta !== 0 && (
+                              <RpArrow
+                                delta={ratePath.ilDelta.bpsDelta}
+                                isBearishIfPositive={true}
+                                suffix="bps"
+                                strongT={25}
+                                modT={10}
+                              />
+                            )}
+                          </div>
+                        )}
+                      </>
                    )}
                  </div>
                )}
@@ -933,7 +1023,7 @@ export default function CurrencyCard({
                <MacroBlock title="Croissance">
                  <IRow label="PIB (QoQ%)"     ind={inds?.gdp          ?? null} unit="%" consensus={fc?.gdp ?? null} surpriseVsCons={fc?.gdpSurprise ?? null} />
                  <IRow label="PMI Composite"  ind={inds?.pmiComposite ?? null} consensus={fc?.pmiComposite ?? null} surpriseVsCons={fc?.pmiCompositeSurprise ?? null} />
-                  <IRow label="Retail Sales"   ind={inds?.retailSales  ?? null} unit="%" consensus={fc?.retailSales ?? null} surpriseVsCons={fc?.retailSalesSurprise ?? null} />
+                  <IRow label="Retail Sales MoM"   ind={inds?.retailSales  ?? null} unit="%" consensus={fc?.retailSales ?? null} surpriseVsCons={fc?.retailSalesSurprise ?? null} />
                </MacroBlock>

                {/* Emploi */}
@@ -1025,17 +1115,18 @@ export default function CurrencyCard({
            {/* ════ FOCUS DONNÉES ══════════════════════════════════════════════ */}
            {activeTab === "focus" && (
              <>
-                {/* Context phase */}
+                {/* Context phase — source : OIS / probabilités de taux (fallback : trend FRED) */}
                <div className={`rounded-xl border p-3 text-[11px] ${sigBg(trendDir(phase === "tightening" ? "up" : phase === "easing" ? "down" : null))}`}>
-                  <div className={`font-semibold mb-1 ${sigColor(trendDir(phase === "tightening" ? "up" : phase === "easing" ? "down" : null))}`}>
-                    Phase {phaseLabel(phase)}
+                  <div className="flex items-center justify-between mb-1">
+                    <span className={`font-semibold ${sigColor(trendDir(phase === "tightening" ? "up" : phase === "easing" ? "down" : null))}`}>
+                      Phase {phaseLabel(phase)}
+                    </span>
+                    <span className="text-[9px] text-slate-600 italic">
+                      {ratePath ? "Source : OIS / probabilités" : "Source : trend taux FRED"}
+                    </span>
                  </div>
                  <p className="text-slate-400 leading-relaxed">
-                    {phase === "tightening"    && "Surveiller les données soutenant une poursuite du resserrement : inflation, emploi solide, PMI expansionniste."}
-                    {phase === "easing"        && "Surveiller les données justifiant des baisses : désinflation, ralentissement du marché de l'emploi, PMI en contraction."}
-                    {phase === "hawkish_pause" && "Surveiller les données qui pourraient forcer la main : regain d'inflation ou au contraire fort ralentissement."}
-                    {phase === "dovish_pause"  && "Surveiller les signes de reprise permettant une normalisation de la politique monétaire."}
-                    {phase === "transition"    && "Phase de transition — tous les indicateurs sont importants pour déterminer la direction future."}
+                    {phaseDescription(phase, ratePath)}
                  </p>
                </div>

@@ -1047,7 +1138,7 @@ export default function CurrencyCard({
                        <FocusRow importance="critical"><IRow label="Variation emploi" ind={inds?.employment ?? null} unit="k" consensus={fc?.employment ?? null} /></FocusRow>
                        <FocusRow importance="high"><IRow label="PIB (QoQ%)" ind={inds?.gdp ?? null} unit="%" consensus={fc?.gdp ?? null} /></FocusRow>
                        <FocusRow importance="high"><IRow label="PMI Composite" ind={inds?.pmiComposite ?? null} consensus={fc?.pmiComposite ?? null} /></FocusRow>
-                        <FocusRow importance="medium"><IRow label="Retail Sales" ind={inds?.retailSales ?? null} unit="%" consensus={fc?.retailSales ?? null} /></FocusRow>
+                        <FocusRow importance="medium"><IRow label="Retail Sales MoM" ind={inds?.retailSales ?? null} unit="%" consensus={fc?.retailSales ?? null} /></FocusRow>
                      </>
                    : <>
                        <FocusRow importance="critical"><IRow label="CPI MoM" ind={inds?.cpiMoM ?? null} unit="%" consensus={fc?.cpiMoM ?? null} /></FocusRow>
@@ -1070,7 +1161,7 @@ export default function CurrencyCard({
                    : <>
                        <FocusRow importance="medium"><IRow label="Taux de chômage" ind={inds?.unemployment ?? null} unit="%" invertSurprise /></FocusRow>
                        <FocusRow importance="medium"><IRow label="PIB (QoQ%)" ind={inds?.gdp ?? null} unit="%" /></FocusRow>
-                        <FocusRow importance="medium"><IRow label="Retail Sales" ind={inds?.retailSales ?? null} unit="%" /></FocusRow>
+                        <FocusRow importance="medium"><IRow label="Retail Sales MoM" ind={inds?.retailSales ?? null} unit="%" /></FocusRow>
                      </>
                  }
                </MacroBlock>
@@ -36,28 +36,89 @@ export interface ILRateExpectation {

 export type ILExpectationsMap = Partial<Record<Currency, ILRateExpectation>>;

-// ── URL discovery ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-// Try the last 14 days to find the most recently published article.
+export interface ILExpectationsWithHistory {
+  current:  ILExpectationsMap;
+  prev:     ILExpectationsMap;
+  prevDate: string | null;
+}

-async function findLatestArticleUrl(): Promise<{ url: string; dateStr: string } | null> {
-  for (let daysAgo = 0; daysAgo <= 14; daysAgo++) {
-    const d = new Date(Date.now() - daysAgo * 86400000);
-    const yyyymmdd = d.toISOString().slice(0, 10).replace(/-/g, "");
-    const url = `https://investinglive.com/news/how-have-interest-rate-expectations-changed-after-this-weeks-event-${yyyymmdd}/`;
-    try {
-      const res = await fetch(url, {
-        method:  "HEAD",
-        headers: { "User-Agent": "Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 10.0; Win64; x64) AppleWebKit/537.36 Chrome/124.0.0.0 Safari/537.36" },
-        next:    { revalidate: 21600 }, // re-check every 6h
-      });
-      if (res.ok) return { url, dateStr: `${yyyymmdd.slice(0,4)}-${yyyymmdd.slice(4,6)}-${yyyymmdd.slice(6,8)}` };
-    } catch { /* try next day */ }
+// ── URL discovery ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+interface ArticleRef { url: string; dateStr: string; daysAgo: number; }
+
+async function tryUrl(daysAgo: number): Promise<ArticleRef | null> {
+  const d = new Date(Date.now() - daysAgo * 86_400_000);
+  const yyyymmdd = d.toISOString().slice(0, 10).replace(/-/g, "");
+  const dateStr  = `${yyyymmdd.slice(0,4)}-${yyyymmdd.slice(4,6)}-${yyyymmdd.slice(6,8)}`;
+  const url = `https://investinglive.com/news/how-have-interest-rate-expectations-changed-after-this-weeks-event-${yyyymmdd}/`;
+  try {
+    const res = await fetch(url, {
+      method:  "HEAD",
+      headers: { "User-Agent": "Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 10.0; Win64; x64) AppleWebKit/537.36 Chrome/124.0.0.0 Safari/537.36" },
+      next:    { revalidate: 21600 },
+    });
+    return res.ok ? { url, dateStr, daysAgo } : null;
+  } catch { return null; }
+}
+
+// Find current article (last 14 days) + previous article (14 days before current, up to 21 days)
+async function findArticleRefs(): Promise<{ current: ArticleRef | null; previous: ArticleRef | null }> {
+  let current: ArticleRef | null = null;
+
+  for (let d = 0; d <= 14; d++) {
+    const found = await tryUrl(d);
+    if (found) { current = found; break; }
+  }
+
+  if (!current) return { current: null, previous: null };
+
+  let previous: ArticleRef | null = null;
+  // Start the day after the current article and look up to 21 days further back
+  for (let d = current.daysAgo + 1; d <= current.daysAgo + 21; d++) {
+    const found = await tryUrl(d);
+    if (found) { previous = found; break; }
+  }
+
+  return { current, previous };
+}
+
+// ── Article fetch + parse ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+async function fetchAndParse(ref: ArticleRef): Promise<ILExpectationsMap> {
+  try {
+    const res = await fetch(ref.url, {
+      headers: {
+        "User-Agent":      "Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 10.0; Win64; x64) AppleWebKit/537.36 Chrome/124.0.0.0 Safari/537.36",
+        "Accept":          "text/html,application/xhtml+xml",
+        "Accept-Language": "en-US,en;q=0.9",
+      },
+      next: { revalidate: 21600 },
+    });
+    if (!res.ok) return {};
+
+    const html = await res.text();
+    const jsonLdMatch = html.match(/"articleBody"\s*:\s*"((?:[^"\\]|\\.)*)"/);
+    if (!jsonLdMatch) {
+      console.warn("[IL] articleBody not found:", ref.url);
+      return {};
+    }
+
+    const body = jsonLdMatch[1]
+      .replace(/\\n/g, "\n")
+      .replace(/\\"/g, '"')
+      .replace(/\\u003c/g, "<")
+      .replace(/\\u003e/g, ">");
+
+    const result = parseArticleBody(body, ref.dateStr);
+    console.log(`[IL] Parsed ${Object.keys(result).length} CBs from article dated ${ref.dateStr}`);
+    return result;
+  } catch (err) {
+    console.error("[IL] fetch error:", err);
+    return {};
  }
-  return null;
 }

 // ── Article parser ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-// The structured data JSON-LD "articleBody" contains the raw text we need.

 function parseArticleBody(text: string, publishedDate: string): ILExpectationsMap {
  const result: ILExpectationsMap = {};
@@ -65,10 +126,6 @@ function parseArticleBody(text: string, publishedDate: string): ILExpectationsMa
  // Matches: "RBNZ: 75 bps (79% probability of rate hike at the next meeting)"
  //          "Fed: 13 bps (99% probability of no change at the next meeting)"
  //          "ECB: 53 bps (99% probability of rate cut at the next meeting)"
-  // Note: bps value in the article is always unsigned — sign is inferred from direction.
-  //   rate hike  → positive bps (rate going up)
-  //   rate cut   → negative bps (rate going down)
-  //   no change  → keep unsigned (residual expectation for later meetings)
  const linePattern = /([A-Za-z]+)\s*:\s*(-?\d+)\s*bps\s*\(\s*(\d+)%\s*probability\s+of\s+(rate\s+(?:hike|cut)|no\s+change)\s+at\s+the\s+next\s+meeting\)/gi;

  let m: RegExpExecArray | null;
@@ -83,15 +140,13 @@ function parseArticleBody(text: string, publishedDate: string): ILExpectationsMa
    const nextMeetingIsHike     = !nextMeetingIsNoChange && direction.includes("hike");
    const nextMeetingIsCut      = !nextMeetingIsNoChange && direction.includes("cut");

-    // Apply sign: if direction is cut and value is positive, negate it
    let bpsYearEnd = parseInt(bpsStr);
    if (nextMeetingIsCut && bpsYearEnd > 0) bpsYearEnd = -bpsYearEnd;

-    // Probability of change = 100 - probNoChange  OR  directProb if it's a hike/cut
    const nextMeetingProbPct = nextMeetingIsNoChange ? 100 - probPct : probPct;

    result[ccy] = {
-      currency:              ccy,
+      currency: ccy,
      nextMeetingProbPct,
      nextMeetingIsHike,
      nextMeetingIsNoChange,
@@ -103,50 +158,31 @@ function parseArticleBody(text: string, publishedDate: string): ILExpectationsMa
  return result;
 }

-// ── Main fetch ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+// ── Exports ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

+/** Retourne uniquement l'article le plus récent (compatibilité descendante). */
 export async function fetchILExpectations(): Promise<ILExpectationsMap> {
-  try {
-    const found = await findLatestArticleUrl();
-    if (!found) {
-      console.warn("[IL] No recent rate-expectations article found (last 14 days)");
-      return {};
-    }
-
-    const res = await fetch(found.url, {
-      headers: {
-        "User-Agent":      "Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 10.0; Win64; x64) AppleWebKit/537.36 Chrome/124.0.0.0 Safari/537.36",
-        "Accept":          "text/html,application/xhtml+xml",
-        "Accept-Language": "en-US,en;q=0.9",
-      },
-      next: { revalidate: 21600 }, // cache 6h — new article only published after major events
-    });
-    if (!res.ok) {
-      console.warn("[IL] Fetch failed:", res.status);
-      return {};
-    }
-
-    const html = await res.text();
-
-    // Extract articleBody from JSON-LD structured data
-    const jsonLdMatch = html.match(/"articleBody"\s*:\s*"((?:[^"\\]|\\.)*)"/);
-    if (!jsonLdMatch) {
-      console.warn("[IL] articleBody not found in JSON-LD");
-      return {};
-    }
-
-    const articleBody = jsonLdMatch[1]
-      .replace(/\\n/g, "\n")
-      .replace(/\\"/g, '"')
-      .replace(/\\u003c/g, "<")
-      .replace(/\\u003e/g, ">");
-
-    const parsed = parseArticleBody(articleBody, found.dateStr);
-    const count = Object.keys(parsed).length;
-    console.log(`[IL] Parsed ${count} CBs from article dated ${found.dateStr}`);
-    return parsed;
-  } catch (err) {
-    console.error("[IL] error:", err);
+  const { current } = await findArticleRefs();
+  if (!current) {
+    console.warn("[IL] No recent rate-expectations article found (last 14 days)");
    return {};
  }
+  return fetchAndParse(current);
+}
+
+/** Retourne l'article courant ET l'article précédent pour calcul de delta semaine/semaine. */
+export async function fetchILExpectationsWithHistory(): Promise<ILExpectationsWithHistory> {
+  const { current, previous } = await findArticleRefs();
+
+  if (!current) {
+    console.warn("[IL] No recent rate-expectations article found (last 14 days)");
+    return { current: {}, prev: {}, prevDate: null };
+  }
+
+  const [currentData, prevData] = await Promise.all([
+    fetchAndParse(current),
+    previous ? fetchAndParse(previous) : Promise.resolve({} as ILExpectationsMap),
+  ]);
+
+  return { current: currentData, prev: prevData, prevDate: previous?.dateStr ?? null };
 }
@@ -3,7 +3,7 @@
 // Endpoint pattern: https://rateprobability.com/api/{cb}/latest

 import type { Currency } from "./types";
-import { fetchILExpectations } from "./investinglive";
+import { fetchILExpectationsWithHistory } from "./investinglive";
 import type { ILExpectationsMap } from "./investinglive";

 // ── Types publics ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
@@ -17,6 +17,13 @@ export interface RateProbMeeting {
  changeBps:   number;   // bps attendus à cette réunion (cumulatif)
 }

+export interface ILWeeklyDelta {
+  probDelta:  number;   // Δ nextMeetingProbPct (courant - semaine précédente)
+  bpsDelta:   number;   // Δ bpsYearEnd (courant - semaine précédente)
+  isCut:      boolean;  // contexte : le pic actuel est un cut
+  prevDate:   string;   // date de l'article de référence (semaine précédente)
+}
+
 export interface CBRatePath {
  currency:       Currency;
  asOf:           string;          // "2026-05-31"
@@ -24,6 +31,7 @@ export interface CBRatePath {
  meetings:       RateProbMeeting[];
  peakMeeting:    RateProbMeeting | null;  // réunion avec proba max de mouvement
  yearEndImplied: number | null;           // taux impliqué à la dernière réunion connue
+  ilDelta?:       ILWeeklyDelta;           // delta vs article IL semaine précédente
 }

 export type RateProbData = Partial<Record<Currency, CBRatePath>>;
@@ -193,11 +201,14 @@ function buildSNBPath(il: ILExpectationsMap, currentRate: number): CBRatePath |
 // ── Fetch toutes les CB en parallèle ──────────────────────────────────────────

 export async function fetchAllCBPaths(): Promise<RateProbData> {
-  // rateprobability.com (7 CBs) + InvestingLive (tous CBs + CHF) en parallèle
-  const [rpResults, ilData] = await Promise.all([
+  // rateprobability.com (7 CBs) + InvestingLive (article courant + précédent) en parallèle
+  const [rpResults, ilHistory] = await Promise.all([
    Promise.allSettled(CB_KEYS.map(([ccy, slug]) => fetchCBPath(ccy, slug))),
-    fetchILExpectations(),
+    fetchILExpectationsWithHistory(),
  ]);
+  const ilData    = ilHistory.current;
+  const ilPrev    = ilHistory.prev;
+  const prevDate  = ilHistory.prevDate;

  const data: RateProbData = {};

@@ -215,18 +226,29 @@ export async function fetchAllCBPaths(): Promise<RateProbData> {
  }

  // Enrichir yearEndImplied avec bpsYearEnd de IL (Giuseppe Dellamotta — source humaine)
-  // pour toutes les devises où IL a une donnée ET rateprobability.com a réussi.
-  // Règle : pour les hikes (bpsYearEnd > 0) et cuts (bpsYearEnd < 0), mettre à jour.
-  // Pour "no change" (bpsYearEnd proche de 0), garder la valeur rateprobability.com.
+  // + calculer ilDelta (Δ vs article semaine précédente) pour les flèches de tendance.
  for (const [ccyStr, ilEntry] of Object.entries(ilData)) {
    const ccy = ccyStr as keyof RateProbData;
    const path = data[ccy];
    if (!path) continue;
    if (typeof ilEntry.bpsYearEnd !== "number") continue;
-    if (ilEntry.nextMeetingIsNoChange && Math.abs(ilEntry.bpsYearEnd) < 10) continue; // garder RP si "no change" + bps résiduel faible
+    if (ilEntry.nextMeetingIsNoChange && Math.abs(ilEntry.bpsYearEnd) < 10) continue;

    const ilYearEnd = parseFloat((path.currentRate + ilEntry.bpsYearEnd / 100).toFixed(4));
-    data[ccy] = { ...path, yearEndImplied: ilYearEnd };
+
+    // Delta semaine/semaine depuis l'article précédent de Giuseppe
+    let ilDelta: import("./rateprobability").ILWeeklyDelta | undefined;
+    const prevEntry = ilPrev[ccy];
+    if (prevEntry && prevDate) {
+      ilDelta = {
+        probDelta: parseFloat((ilEntry.nextMeetingProbPct - prevEntry.nextMeetingProbPct).toFixed(1)),
+        bpsDelta:  ilEntry.bpsYearEnd - prevEntry.bpsYearEnd,
+        isCut:     !ilEntry.nextMeetingIsHike && !ilEntry.nextMeetingIsNoChange,
+        prevDate,
+      };
+    }
+
+    data[ccy] = { ...path, yearEndImplied: ilYearEnd, ...(ilDelta ? { ilDelta } : {}) };
  }

  return data;