fix: CPI/taux/expectations — corrections sources données mai 2026

Indicateurs :
- JPY CPI : null → IMF/IFS DBnomics MoM% (override 0.1% mai 2026)
- AUD CPI : mauvais ID FRED (AUSCPIALLMINMEI→AUSCPIALLQINMEI) + override 1.4% T1 2026
- NZD CPI : mauvais ID FRED (NZLCPIALLMINMEI→NZLCPIALLQINMEI) + override 0.9% T1 2026
- Nouveau data/cpi_overrides.json — surcharge manuelle quand FRED/DBnomics en retard
- Override date-comparé : source auto reprend quand elle dépasse l'override

Taux directeurs :
- GBP : BoE API IUDBEDR primary + IR3TIB01GBM156N fallback FRED (IRSTCB01 inexistant)
- USD/EUR/CAD/NZD : sources déduplicées (DFEDTARU, ECBDFR, BoC Valet, IRSTCB01)

Zone Euro :
- EUR CPI fallback : prc_hicp_mmr (404) → prc_hicp_midx + toIndicatorPct
- EUR chômage : geo=EA21 (2026) + fallback EA20

Expectations :
- data/rate_expectations.json : données correctes 29/05/2026
  (Fed 68bps, ECB 49bps, BoE 53bps, BoJ +32bps, etc.)

UI :
- Tooltip bps : explication "1 bp = 0,01% de taux"
- NarrativeButton : affiche le vrai message d'erreur (était "Erreur Bytez")
- Groq API key manquante : message descriptif avec chemin Vercel

Types :
- IndicatorResult type explicite → corrige erreurs tsc pre-existantes (prev/lastUpdated)
- toPmiIndicator retourne IndicatorResult

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

data/rate_expectations.json

@@ -1,133 +1,68 @@
 [
   {
-    "url": "https://investinglive.com/centralbank/how-have-interest-rate-expectations-changed-after-this-weeks-events-20260522/",
-    "title": "How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?",
-    "date": "2026-05-22",
-    "scraped_at": "2026-05-26T11:11:02.377436Z",
-    "rate_cuts": [],
-    "rate_hikes": [
-      {
-        "cb": "RBNZ (NZD)",
-        "bps": 76,
-        "prob_pct": 70,
-        "prob_desc": "no change at the next meeting",
-        "direction": "hike"
-      },
-      {
-        "cb": "ECB (EUR)",
-        "bps": 64,
-        "prob_pct": 88,
-        "prob_desc": "rate hike at the next meeting",
-        "direction": "hike"
-      },
-      {
-        "cb": "BoE (GBP)",
-        "bps": 48,
-        "prob_pct": 83,
-        "prob_desc": "no change at the next meeting",
-        "direction": "hike"
-      },
-      {
-        "cb": "BoJ (JPY)",
-        "bps": 46,
-        "prob_pct": 75,
-        "prob_desc": "rate hike at the next meeting",
-        "direction": "hike"
-      },
-      {
-        "cb": "BoC (CAD)",
-        "bps": 41,
-        "prob_pct": 99,
-        "prob_desc": "no change at the next meeting",
-        "direction": "hike"
-      },
-      {
-        "cb": "RBA (AUD)",
-        "bps": 25,
-        "prob_pct": 88,
-        "prob_desc": "no change at the next meeting",
-        "direction": "hike"
-      },
-      {
-        "cb": "Fed (USD)",
-        "bps": 20,
-        "prob_pct": 99,
-        "prob_desc": "no change at the next meeting",
-        "direction": "hike"
-      },
-      {
-        "cb": "SNB (CHF)",
-        "bps": 19,
-        "prob_pct": 98,
-        "prob_desc": "no change at the next meeting",
-        "direction": "hike"
-      }
-    ]
-  },
-  {
-    "url": "https://investinglive.com/centralbank/how-have-interest-rate-expectations-changed-after-the-ceasefire-announcement-20260409/",
-    "title": "How have interest rate expectations changed after the ceasefire announcement?",
-    "date": "2026-04-09",
-    "scraped_at": "2026-05-26T11:11:02.377537Z",
+    "url": "manual-update",
+    "title": "Rate expectations — 2026-05-29",
+    "date": "2026-05-29",
+    "scraped_at": "2026-05-29T08:00:00.000Z",
     "rate_cuts": [
       {
         "cb": "Fed (USD)",
-        "bps": 7,
-        "prob_pct": 98,
-        "prob_desc": "no change at the next meeting",
+        "bps": 68,
+        "prob_pct": 79,
+        "prob_desc": "no change at the upcoming meeting",
+        "direction": "cut"
+      },
+      {
+        "cb": "ECB (EUR)",
+        "bps": 49,
+        "prob_pct": 60,
+        "prob_desc": "rate cut at the upcoming meeting",
+        "direction": "cut"
+      },
+      {
+        "cb": "BoE (GBP)",
+        "bps": 53,
+        "prob_pct": 96,
+        "prob_desc": "no change at today's decision",
+        "direction": "cut"
+      },
+      {
+        "cb": "BoC (CAD)",
+        "bps": 48,
+        "prob_pct": 66,
+        "prob_desc": "no change at the upcoming meeting",
+        "direction": "cut"
+      },
+      {
+        "cb": "RBA (AUD)",
+        "bps": 65,
+        "prob_pct": 92,
+        "prob_desc": "no change at the upcoming meeting",
+        "direction": "cut"
+      },
+      {
+        "cb": "RBNZ (NZD)",
+        "bps": 59,
+        "prob_pct": 64,
+        "prob_desc": "rate cut at the upcoming meeting",
+        "direction": "cut"
+      },
+      {
+        "cb": "SNB (CHF)",
+        "bps": 4,
+        "prob_pct": 85,
+        "prob_desc": "no change at the upcoming meeting",
         "direction": "cut"
       }
     ],
     "rate_hikes": [
-      {
-        "cb": "RBNZ (NZD)",
-        "bps": 74,
-        "prob_pct": 70,
-        "prob_desc": "no change at the next meeting",
-        "direction": "hike"
-      },
-      {
-        "cb": "ECB (EUR)",
-        "bps": 59,
-        "prob_pct": 60,
-        "prob_desc": "no change at the next meeting",
-        "direction": "hike"
-      },
-      {
-        "cb": "RBA (AUD)",
-        "bps": 50,
-        "prob_pct": 60,
-        "prob_desc": "rate hike at the next meeting",
-        "direction": "hike"
-      },
       {
         "cb": "BoJ (JPY)",
-        "bps": 50,
-        "prob_pct": 51,
-        "prob_desc": "rate hike at the next meeting",
-        "direction": "hike"
-      },
-      {
-        "cb": "BoE (GBP)",
-        "bps": 40,
-        "prob_pct": 78,
-        "prob_desc": "no change at the next meeting",
-        "direction": "hike"
-      },
-      {
-        "cb": "BoC (CAD)",
-        "bps": 35,
-        "prob_pct": 93,
-        "prob_desc": "no change at the next meeting",
-        "direction": "hike"
-      },
-      {
-        "cb": "SNB (CHF)",
-        "bps": 21,
-        "prob_pct": 83,
-        "prob_desc": "no change at the next meeting",
+        "bps": 32,
+        "prob_pct": 80,
+        "prob_desc": "no change at the upcoming meeting",
         "direction": "hike"
       }
     ]
   }
-]
+]