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feat: banques centrales (vote+dot plot+previsions), calendrier elargi, fix InvestingLive, M3 auto
Central bank governance (nouvel onglet Banques centrales) : - lib/centralBankGovernance.ts + app/api/central-bank-sources : scraping live du vote de la derniere reunion, dot plot Fed (SEP), et desormais les previsions macro (PIB + inflation) publiees par chaque BC elle-meme (Fed SEP, Eurosystem staff projections, BoJ Outlook Report PDF, SNB conditional forecast, BoC MPR, RBA SMP). GBP/NZD laisses honnetement vides quand aucune source chiffree fiable n'est accessible (RBNZ bloque par Cloudflare). - components/CentralBankSourcesTab.tsx : nouvel onglet avec cards par banque. Taux directeurs + Money Supply M3 : - data/rate_decisions.json corrige (JPY, EUR, NZD etc. etaient perimes d'1-2 decisions) et desormais auto-maintenu : .github/workflows/update-rate-decisions.yml (horaire) detecte les changements de taux via Trading Economics et fait glisser current -> prev sans perte de donnee. - data/money-supply-m3.json (nouveau) + .github/workflows/fetch-money-supply.yml (hebdo) : M3 par devise (proxy M2 pour l'USD, la Fed ne publiant plus M3 depuis 2006), affiche dans CurrencyCard. Calendrier economique elargi : - lib/calendar-countries.ts, lib/calendar-taxonomy.ts, lib/fxstreetCalendar.ts : couverture pays elargie + classification des evenements + source FXStreet. Fix InvestingLive : - lib/investinglive.ts : l'ancienne API WordPress (wp-json) renvoyait 404 depuis leur migration Nuxt.js -> reecrit vers api.investinglive.com/api/homepage/articles, + fix crash silencieux (Tldr pas toujours un tableau). Divers : - .vercel/ ajoute au .gitignore (ne doit jamais etre commite, cf. son propre README). - scripts/ (lancement PWA, push env Vercel), captures d'ecran, cache InvestingLive. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
caty21
co-authored by
Claude Sonnet 5
Claude Sonnet 5
parent
82a732fbdf
commit
0657b50c07
+90
-99
@@ -99,15 +99,21 @@ const MEETING_TITLES: Partial<Record<Currency, string>> = {
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// ── Extraction des champs (nommage hétérogène selon les CB) ───────────────────
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// .github/scripts/fetch-rate-data.mjs écrit toujours "midpoint", quelle que soit
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// la devise (CME/Investing.com/InvestingLive écrivent tous le même schéma). Les
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// noms par devise ci-dessous ("current_target", "cash_rate_target"…) datent de
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// l'ancienne source rateprobability.com (remplacée par le commit 2673686) et ne
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// sont plus jamais écrits par le pipeline actuel — d'où le "0.00%" affiché pour
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// toute devise autre que USD/NZD (les deux seules à retomber sur "midpoint").
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function getCurrentRate(ccy: Currency, today: Record<string, unknown>): number {
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if (typeof today["midpoint"] === "number") return today["midpoint"] as number;
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switch (ccy) {
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case "USD": return (today["midpoint"] as number) ?? 0;
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case "EUR": return (today["ecb_main_refinancing"] as number) ?? (today["ecb_deposit_facility"] as number) ?? 0;
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case "GBP": return (today["current_target"] as number) ?? 0;
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case "JPY": return (today["current_target"] as number) ?? 0;
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case "CAD": return (today["Overnight Rate Target"] as number) ?? 0;
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case "AUD": return (today["cash_rate_target"] as number) ?? 0;
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case "NZD": return (today["Official Cash Rate (OCR)"] as number) ?? (today["current_target"] as number) ?? (today["midpoint"] as number) ?? 0;
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case "NZD": return (today["Official Cash Rate (OCR)"] as number) ?? (today["current_target"] as number) ?? 0;
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default: return 0;
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}
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}
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@@ -118,56 +124,79 @@ function getAsOf(today: Record<string, unknown>): string {
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}
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// ── SNB meeting dates (published par la SNB, trimestrielles) ─────────────────
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// Mise à jour annuelle : mars, juin, septembre, décembre
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// ── Calendriers officiels par banque centrale ─────────────────────────────────
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// Utilisés pour les CB sans page Investing.com dédiée (ou dont le fallback IL
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// n'a qu'un seul point "year-end") : on construit une vraie courbe multi-réunions
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// à partir des dates réelles + de l'estimation InvestingLive (proba/direction).
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// Sources officielles, à mettre à jour quand chaque banque publie son calendrier
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// suivant (généralement 1x/an) :
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// SNB : snb.ch/en/the-snb/mandates-goals/monetary-policy/decisions
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// RBNZ : rbnz.govt.nz
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// ECB : ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc (jour 2 = décision + conf. presse)
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// BoE : bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates
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// BoJ : boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu (2027 pas encore publié à l'écriture de ceci)
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// BoC : bankofcanada.ca (annonce annuelle du calendrier, pas encore publié pour 2027)
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// RBA : rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html (jour 2 = décision)
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const SNB_MEETINGS: string[] = [
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// 2026
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"2026-06-19",
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"2026-09-25",
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"2026-12-11",
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// 2027
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"2027-03-18",
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"2027-06-17",
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"2027-09-23",
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"2027-12-09",
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"2026-06-19", "2026-09-25", "2026-12-11",
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"2027-03-18", "2027-06-17", "2027-09-23", "2027-12-09",
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];
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// ── RBNZ meeting dates (7 par an) ─────────────────────────────────────────────
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// Source officielle : rbnz.govt.nz — mise à jour annuelle
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const RBNZ_MEETINGS: string[] = [
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// 2026
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"2026-07-09",
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"2026-08-19",
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"2026-10-14",
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"2026-11-25",
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// 2027
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"2027-02-24",
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"2027-04-09",
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"2027-05-26",
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"2027-07-14",
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"2027-08-18",
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"2027-10-13",
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"2027-11-24",
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"2026-07-09", "2026-08-19", "2026-10-14", "2026-11-25",
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"2027-02-24", "2027-04-09", "2027-05-26", "2027-07-14",
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"2027-08-18", "2027-10-13", "2027-11-24",
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];
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// Construit un CBRatePath NZD depuis InvestingLive + calendrier RBNZ officiel
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function buildRBNZPath(il: ILExpectationsMap, currentRate: number): CBRatePath | null {
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const nzdData = il["NZD"];
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if (!nzdData) return null;
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const ECB_MEETINGS: string[] = [
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"2026-07-23", "2026-09-10", "2026-10-29", "2026-12-17",
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"2027-02-04", "2027-03-18", "2027-04-29", "2027-06-10",
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"2027-07-22", "2027-09-09", "2027-10-28", "2027-12-16",
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];
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const BOE_MEETINGS: string[] = [
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"2026-07-30", "2026-09-17", "2026-11-05", "2026-12-17",
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"2027-02-04", "2027-03-18", "2027-04-29", "2027-06-17",
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"2027-07-29", "2027-09-16", "2027-11-04", "2027-12-16",
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];
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const BOJ_MEETINGS: string[] = [
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"2026-07-31", "2026-09-18", "2026-10-30", "2026-12-18",
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];
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const BOC_MEETINGS: string[] = [
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"2026-07-15", "2026-09-02", "2026-10-28", "2026-12-09",
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];
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const RBA_MEETINGS: string[] = [
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"2026-08-11", "2026-09-29", "2026-11-03", "2026-12-08",
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"2027-02-09", "2027-03-23", "2027-05-04", "2027-06-22",
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"2027-08-10", "2027-09-28", "2027-11-02", "2027-12-14",
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];
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// Construit un CBRatePath depuis un calendrier officiel + l'estimation InvestingLive
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// (proba/direction de la prochaine réunion, biais year-end pour les suivantes).
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function buildOfficialCalendarPath(
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currency: Currency,
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officialMeetings: string[],
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il: ILExpectationsMap,
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currentRate: number,
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): CBRatePath | null {
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const ilData = il[currency];
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if (!ilData) return null;
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const nowIso = new Date().toISOString().slice(0, 10);
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const upcomingMeetings = RBNZ_MEETINGS.filter(d => d >= nowIso);
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const upcomingMeetings = officialMeetings.filter(d => d >= nowIso);
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if (upcomingMeetings.length === 0) return null;
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const yearEndIsCut = nzdData.bpsYearEnd < 0;
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const yearEndIsCut = ilData.bpsYearEnd < 0;
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const meetings: RateProbMeeting[] = upcomingMeetings.map((dateIso, i) => {
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const isNext = i === 0;
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const probMovePct = isNext ? nzdData.nextMeetingProbPct : 0;
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const probMovePct = isNext ? ilData.nextMeetingProbPct : 0;
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const probIsCut = isNext
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? (nzdData.nextMeetingIsNoChange ? yearEndIsCut : !nzdData.nextMeetingIsHike)
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? (ilData.nextMeetingIsNoChange ? yearEndIsCut : !ilData.nextMeetingIsHike)
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: yearEndIsCut;
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const changeBps = isNext ? (probMovePct > 50 ? (probIsCut ? -25 : 25) : 0) : 0;
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const impliedRate = isNext && probMovePct > 50
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@@ -182,56 +211,8 @@ function buildRBNZPath(il: ILExpectationsMap, currentRate: number): CBRatePath |
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);
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return {
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currency: "NZD",
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asOf: nzdData.publishedDate,
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currentRate,
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meetings,
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peakMeeting: peakMeeting.probMovePct > 0 ? peakMeeting : null,
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yearEndImplied: meetings.at(-1)?.impliedRate ?? null,
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};
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}
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// Construit un CBRatePath CHF depuis les données InvestingLive (probabilités OIS-équivalent)
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function buildSNBPath(il: ILExpectationsMap, currentRate: number): CBRatePath | null {
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const chfData = il["CHF"];
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if (!chfData) return null;
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const nowIso = new Date().toISOString().slice(0, 10);
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const upcomingMeetings = SNB_MEETINGS.filter(d => d >= nowIso);
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if (upcomingMeetings.length === 0) return null;
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// Direction par défaut : bpsYearEnd > 0 = hausse, < 0 = baisse
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const yearEndIsHike = chfData.bpsYearEnd >= 0;
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const meetings: RateProbMeeting[] = upcomingMeetings.map((dateIso, i) => {
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const isNext = i === 0;
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const probMovePct = isNext ? chfData.nextMeetingProbPct : 0;
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// Si "no change" à la prochaine réunion, la direction vient du biais year-end
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const probIsCut = isNext
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? (chfData.nextMeetingIsNoChange ? !yearEndIsHike : !chfData.nextMeetingIsHike)
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: !yearEndIsHike;
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const changeBps = isNext ? (probIsCut ? -chfData.bpsYearEnd : chfData.bpsYearEnd) : 0;
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const impliedRate = isNext && probMovePct > 50
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? currentRate + (probIsCut ? -0.25 : 0.25)
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: currentRate;
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return {
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label: dateIso.slice(0, 7), // "2026-06"
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dateIso,
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impliedRate,
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probMovePct,
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probIsCut,
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changeBps,
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};
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});
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const peakMeeting = meetings.reduce((best, m) =>
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m.probMovePct > best.probMovePct ? m : best, meetings[0]
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);
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return {
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currency: "CHF",
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asOf: chfData.publishedDate,
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currency,
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asOf: ilData.publishedDate,
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currentRate,
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meetings,
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peakMeeting: peakMeeting.probMovePct > 0 ? peakMeeting : null,
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@@ -362,18 +343,28 @@ export async function fetchAllCBPaths(): Promise<RateProbData> {
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}
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}
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// CHF/SNB : Investing.com n'a pas de page SNB → InvestingLive seule source.
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if (!data["CHF"] && ilData["CHF"]) {
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const snbPath = buildSNBPath(ilData, 0.00);
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if (snbPath) data["CHF"] = snbPath;
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}
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// NZD/RBNZ : Investing.com n'a pas de page RBNZ → InvestingLive + calendrier RBNZ.
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// Si les données JSON ont ≤ 1 réunion (buildILFallback n'en met qu'une) → reconstruire.
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if ((!data["NZD"] || data["NZD"].meetings.length <= 1) && ilData["NZD"]) {
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const rate = data["NZD"]?.currentRate || 2.25; // RBNZ OCR juin 2026
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const rbnzPath = buildRBNZPath(ilData, rate);
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if (rbnzPath) data["NZD"] = rbnzPath;
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// Investing.com n'a de Rate Monitor que pour la Fed (USD) — toutes les autres
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// devises retombent sur le fallback InvestingLive, qui n'a qu'un seul point
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// "year-end" (buildILFallback dans fetch-rate-data.mjs). On reconstruit ici une
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// vraie courbe multi-réunions à partir du calendrier officiel de chaque CB +
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// de l'estimation InvestingLive (proba/direction), comme déjà fait pour NZD/CHF.
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const OFFICIAL_CALENDARS: Partial<Record<Currency, { meetings: string[]; fallbackRate: number }>> = {
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CHF: { meetings: SNB_MEETINGS, fallbackRate: 0.00 },
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NZD: { meetings: RBNZ_MEETINGS, fallbackRate: 2.25 },
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EUR: { meetings: ECB_MEETINGS, fallbackRate: 2.15 },
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GBP: { meetings: BOE_MEETINGS, fallbackRate: 3.75 },
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JPY: { meetings: BOJ_MEETINGS, fallbackRate: 0.75 },
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CAD: { meetings: BOC_MEETINGS, fallbackRate: 2.25 },
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AUD: { meetings: RBA_MEETINGS, fallbackRate: 4.35 },
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};
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for (const [ccyStr, cal] of Object.entries(OFFICIAL_CALENDARS)) {
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const ccy = ccyStr as Currency;
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if (!cal) continue;
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// Reconstruit si aucune donnée, ou si le fallback IL n'a mis qu'un seul point.
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if ((data[ccy] && data[ccy]!.meetings.length > 1) || !ilData[ccy]) continue;
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const rate = data[ccy]?.currentRate || cal.fallbackRate;
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const path = buildOfficialCalendarPath(ccy, cal.meetings, ilData, rate);
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if (path) data[ccy] = path;
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}
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// Enrichissement IL : fusion proba première réunion + deltas hebdo
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