Files
drift/training/meta_labeling.py
T
Mark Aron Szulyovszky b1c04afb13 refactor(Naming): use new convention, added Ensemble model parameter back, support multiple Meta-Labeling models (#132)
* refactor(Naming): use `primary_models` & `meta_labeling_models`

* refactor(Naming): using primary * meta_labeling across config and in pipeline

* feat(Pipeline): added back Ensemble models

* fix(Pipeline): compiler error

* fix(Config): typo

* chore(Pipeline): removed unused averaging step

* revert the changes in discretizing

* chore(Pipeline): remove sharpe improvement logging

* fix(Pipeline): ensemble predictions should be a pd.Series instead of a DataFrame

* fix(Pipeline): discard unnecessary ensemble_probabilities

* fix(Pipeline): fixes regarding various meta-labeling ensemble bugs

* fix(Reporting): use the new naming convention

* fix(Reporting): use the right variable

* feat(Sweep): new sweep for ensemble models

* fix(Sweep): config reference

* fix(Config): simplified dev config

* fix(Models): use the faster LR model

* fix(Models): use LGBM in the meta-labeling model for speed

* fix(Selection): always use the first model for feature selection, commented out caching from select_features() as it's close to redundant in terms of speed
2022-01-09 17:21:06 +01:00

72 lines
3.5 KiB
Python

from utils.evaluate import discretize_threeway_threshold, evaluate_predictions
from utils.helpers import random_string, equal_except_nan, drop_until_first_valid_index
from training.primary_model import train_primary_model
from feature_selection.feature_selection import select_features
import pandas as pd
from models.model_map import default_feature_selector_regression, default_feature_selector_classification
from models.base import Model
def train_meta_labeling_model(
target_asset: str,
X_pca: pd.DataFrame,
input_predictions: pd.Series,
y: pd.Series,
target_returns: pd.Series,
models: list[tuple[str, Model]],
data_config: dict,
model_config: dict,
training_config: dict,
model_suffix: str
) -> tuple[pd.Series, pd.Series, pd.DataFrame, dict]:
discretize = discretize_threeway_threshold(0.33)
discretized_predictions = input_predictions.apply(discretize)
meta_y: pd.Series = pd.concat([discretized_predictions, y], axis=1).apply(equal_except_nan, axis = 1)
print("Feature Selection started")
backup_model = default_feature_selector_regression if data_config['method'] == 'regression' else default_feature_selector_classification
meta_feature_selection_input_X, meta_feature_selection_input_y = drop_until_first_valid_index(X_pca, meta_y)
feature_selection_output = select_features(X = meta_feature_selection_input_X, y = meta_feature_selection_input_y, model = models[0][1], n_features_to_select = training_config['n_features_to_select'], backup_model = backup_model, scaling = training_config['scaler'])
meta_selected_features_X = X_pca[feature_selection_output.columns]
meta_X = pd.concat([meta_selected_features_X, input_predictions, discretized_predictions], axis = 1)
_, meta_preds, meta_probabilities, all_models_single_asset = train_primary_model(
ticker_to_predict = "prediction_correct",
original_X = meta_X,
X = meta_X,
y = meta_y,
target_returns = target_returns,
models = models,
method = 'classification',
expanding_window = training_config['expanding_window_meta_labeling'],
sliding_window_size = training_config['sliding_window_size_meta_labeling'],
retrain_every = training_config['retrain_every'],
scaler = training_config['scaler'],
no_of_classes = 'two',
level = 'meta_labeling',
print_results = False
)
if len(models) > 1:
meta_preds = meta_preds.mean(axis = 1)
bet_size = meta_probabilities[meta_probabilities.columns[1::2]].mean(axis = 1)
else:
bet_size = meta_probabilities.iloc[:,1]
avg_predictions_with_sizing = input_predictions * bet_size
avg_predictions_with_sizing.rename("model_" + target_asset + "_" + model_suffix, inplace=True)
meta_result = evaluate_predictions(
model_name = "Meta",
target_returns = target_returns,
y_pred = avg_predictions_with_sizing,
y_true = y,
method = 'classification',
no_of_classes = 'two',
print_results = True,
discretize=False
)
meta_result.rename("model_" + target_asset + "_" + model_suffix, inplace=True)
return meta_result, avg_predictions_with_sizing, meta_probabilities, all_models_single_asset