#%% import pandas as pd import numpy as np from data_loader.load_data import load_only_returns from data_loader.collections import data_collections import vectorbt as vbt from vectorbt.portfolio.enums import SizeType, CallSeqType from utils.helpers import get_first_valid_return_index from alphalens.tears import (create_returns_tear_sheet, create_information_tear_sheet, create_turnover_tear_sheet, create_summary_tear_sheet, create_full_tear_sheet, create_event_returns_tear_sheet, create_event_study_tear_sheet) from alphalens.utils import get_clean_factor_and_forward_returns def fixed_weight(row: pd.Series, availability_row: pd.Series, allow_short: bool) -> pd.Series: no_of_assets_available = availability_row.sum() unit = 1 / no_of_assets_available if allow_short: def determine_pos(x): if x == 0.0 or np.isnan(x): return 0 elif x > 0.0: return 1 else: return -1 row = row.apply(determine_pos) else: row = row.apply(lambda x: 1 if x > 0.0 else 0) return row * unit def limit_weight(row: pd.Series) -> pd.Series: if row.sum() > 1: row = row / row.sum() elif row.sum() < 1: row = row * (1. / abs(row.sum())) return row def only_top_bottom_2(row: pd.Series) -> pd.Series: row = row.copy() row_sorted = row.sort_values() bottom = row_sorted.iloc[:2] top = row_sorted.iloc[-2:] middle = row_sorted.iloc[2:-2] for index, _ in middle.iteritems(): row[index] = 0. if bottom.sum() > 0: for index, _ in bottom.iteritems(): row[index] = 0. else: for index, _ in bottom.iteritems(): row[index] = -.025 if top.sum() < 0: for index, _ in top.iteritems(): row[index] = 0. else: for index, _ in top.iteritems(): row[index] = .025 return row def equal_weight(row: pd.Series, availability: pd.Series) -> pd.Series: no_of_assets_available = availability.sum() unit = 1 / no_of_assets_available for index, _ in predictions.iteritems(): row[index] = 0. if availability[index] == 0 else unit return row def create_naive_portfolio_weights(predictions: pd.DataFrame, availability: pd.DataFrame, allow_short: bool) -> pd.DataFrame: weights = predictions.copy() assert weights.shape[1] == availability.shape[1] for index, row in weights.iterrows(): # row = fixed_weight(row, availability.iloc[index], allow_short) # row = row / row.sum() # row = only_top_bottom_2(row) # row = equal_weight(row, availability.iloc[index]) row = limit_weight(row) weights.iloc[index] = row return weights predictions = pd.read_csv('output/predictions.csv', index_col=0) predictions.columns = ['_'.join(col.replace("model_", "").split("_")[:2]) for col in predictions.columns] first_index = get_first_valid_return_index(predictions[predictions.columns[0]]) predictions = predictions.iloc[first_index:] predictions.reset_index(drop=True, inplace=True) close = load_only_returns(data_collections['daily_crypto'], 'date', 'price') close = close.iloc[first_index:-1] close.columns = [col.replace("_returns", "") for col in close.columns] close = close[predictions.columns] close.reset_index(drop=True, inplace=True) # returns = load_only_returns(data_collections['daily_crypto'], 'date', 'returns') # returns = returns.iloc[first_index:-1] # returns.columns = [col.replace("_returns", "") for col in returns.columns] # returns = returns[predictions.columns] # returns.reset_index(drop=True, inplace=True) # predictions = predictions.reindex(close.index, method='ffill') availability = close.applymap(lambda x: 0 if x == 0.0 or x == 0 or np.isnan(x) else 1) weights = create_naive_portfolio_weights(predictions, availability, allow_short=True) # weights_long = pd.melt(weights,id_vars=['index']) # factor_data = get_clean_factor_and_forward_returns( # weights, # close, # groupby=factor_groups, # quantiles=4, # periods=(1, 3), # filter_zscore=None) # rebalance every n days # weights.iloc[np.arange(len(weights)) % 7 != 0] = np.nan # portfolio = vbt.Portfolio.from_orders( # close=close, # size=weights, # size_type=SizeType.TargetPercent, # cash_sharing=True, # call_seq=CallSeqType.Auto, # group_by=True, # freq='1D', # raise_reject=True, # fees=0.01, # seed=1, # init_cash=1e5, # ) # print(portfolio.stats()) # from pypfopt import risk_models # from pypfopt import expected_returns # from pypfopt import EfficientFrontier # mu = expected_returns.mean_historical_return(close) # S = risk_models.sample_cov(close) # ef = EfficientFrontier(mu, S) # raw_weights = ef.max_sharpe() # cleaned_weights = ef.clean_weights() # print(ef.portfolio_performance(verbose=True)) # %%