#%% import pandas as pd import numpy as np from data_loader.load_data import load_only_returns from data_loader.collections import data_collections from utils.helpers import get_first_valid_return_index from alphalens.tears import (create_returns_tear_sheet, create_information_tear_sheet, create_turnover_tear_sheet, create_summary_tear_sheet, create_full_tear_sheet, create_event_returns_tear_sheet, create_event_study_tear_sheet) import alphalens import pyfolio from alphalens.utils import get_clean_factor_and_forward_returns def fixed_weight(row: pd.Series, availability_row: pd.Series, allow_short: bool) -> pd.Series: no_of_assets_available = availability_row.sum() unit = 1 / no_of_assets_available if allow_short: def determine_pos(x): if x == 0.0 or np.isnan(x): return 0 elif x > 0.0: return 1 else: return -1 row = row.apply(determine_pos) else: row = row.apply(lambda x: 1 if x > 0.0 else 0) return row * unit def limit_weight(row: pd.Series) -> pd.Series: if row.sum() > 1: row = row / row.sum() elif row.sum() < -1: row = row * (1. / abs(row.sum())) return row def only_top_bottom_2(row: pd.Series) -> pd.Series: row = row.copy() row_sorted = row.sort_values() bottom = row_sorted.iloc[:2] top = row_sorted.iloc[-2:] middle = row_sorted.iloc[2:-2] for index, _ in middle.iteritems(): row[index] = 0. if bottom.sum() > 0: for index, _ in bottom.iteritems(): row[index] = 0. else: for index, _ in bottom.iteritems(): row[index] = -.025 if top.sum() < 0: for index, _ in top.iteritems(): row[index] = 0. else: for index, _ in top.iteritems(): row[index] = .025 return row def equal_weight(row: pd.Series, availability: pd.Series) -> pd.Series: no_of_assets_available = availability.sum() unit = 1 / no_of_assets_available for index, _ in predictions.iteritems(): row[index] = 0. if availability[index] == 0 else unit return row def create_naive_portfolio_weights(predictions: pd.DataFrame, availability: pd.DataFrame, allow_short: bool) -> pd.DataFrame: weights = predictions.copy() assert weights.shape[1] == availability.shape[1] for index, row in weights.iterrows(): # row = fixed_weight(row, availability.iloc[index], allow_short) # row = row / row.sum() # row = only_top_bottom_2(row) # row = equal_weight(row, availability.iloc[index]) # row = limit_weight(row) weights.iloc[index] = row return weights predictions = pd.read_csv('output/predictions.csv', index_col=0) predictions.columns = ['_'.join(col.replace("model_", "").split("_")[:2]) for col in predictions.columns] first_index = get_first_valid_return_index(predictions[predictions.columns[0]]) predictions = predictions.iloc[first_index:] predictions.reset_index(drop=True, inplace=True) close = load_only_returns(data_collections['daily_crypto'], 'date', 'price') close = close.iloc[first_index:-1] close.columns = [col.replace("_returns", "") for col in close.columns] close = close[predictions.columns] availability = close.applymap(lambda x: 0 if x == 0.0 or x == 0 or np.isnan(x) else 1) weights = create_naive_portfolio_weights(predictions, availability, allow_short=True) weights.index = close.index weights_long = pd.melt(weights.reset_index(), id_vars=['time'], value_vars=weights.columns).set_index(['time', 'variable']) close_long = pd.melt(close.reset_index(), id_vars=['time'], value_vars=close.columns).set_index(['time', 'variable']) #%% factor_data = get_clean_factor_and_forward_returns( weights_long, close, # groupby=weights.columns.to_list(), quantiles=4, periods=(1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 10), filter_zscore=None) #%% factor_data.head(10) #%% create_full_tear_sheet(factor_data, long_short=True) from matplotlib.backends.backend_pdf import PdfPages mean_return_by_q_daily, std_err = alphalens.performance.mean_return_by_quantile(factor_data, by_date=True) mean_return_by_q, std_err_by_q = alphalens.performance.mean_return_by_quantile(factor_data, by_group=False) plot1 = alphalens.plotting.plot_quantile_returns_bar(mean_return_by_q) plot2 = alphalens.plotting.plot_quantile_returns_violin(mean_return_by_q_daily) plot3 = alphalens.plotting.plot_cumulative_returns_by_quantile(mean_return_by_q_daily, period='D') full_tear = create_full_tear_sheet(factor_data, long_short=True) avg_returns = create_event_returns_tear_sheet(factor_data, close, avgretplot=(1, 3, 5), long_short=True) with PdfPages('output/factors.pdf') as pdf: pdf.savefig(plot1.figure) pdf.savefig(plot2.figure) pdf.savefig(plot3.figure) # create_event_returns_tear_sheet(factor_data, close, avgretplot=(1, 3, 5), long_short=True) #%% pf_returns, pf_positions, pf_benchmark = alphalens.performance.create_pyfolio_input(factor_data, period='1D', capital=100000, long_short=True, equal_weight=True, quantiles=[1,4], groups=None, benchmark_period='1D') pyfolio.tears.create_full_tear_sheet(pf_returns, positions=pf_positions, benchmark_rets=pf_benchmark) # rebalance every n days # weights.iloc[np.arange(len(weights)) % 7 != 0] = np.nan # from pypfopt import risk_models # from pypfopt import expected_returns # from pypfopt import EfficientFrontier # mu = expected_returns.mean_historical_return(close) # S = risk_models.sample_cov(close) # ef = EfficientFrontier(mu, S) # raw_weights = ef.max_sharpe() # cleaned_weights = ef.clean_weights() # print(ef.portfolio_performance(verbose=True))