#%% Import all the stuff, load data, define constants from sklearn.utils import shuffle from load_data import load_files, create_target_cum_forward_returns import pandas as pd from tensorflow import keras from utils.normalize import normalize import tensorflow as tf from utils.visualize import visualize_loss from sklearn.preprocessing import MinMaxScaler from utils.evaluate import print_regression_metrics import numpy as np from utils.rolling import rolling_window data = load_files('data/', add_features=True, log_returns=False) data.reset_index(drop=True, inplace=True) data = data[[column for column in data.columns if not column.endswith('volume')]] data = data[["BTC_returns", "BTC_mom_10", "BTC_mom_20", "BTC_mom_30", "BTC_mom_60", "BTC_vol_10", "BTC_vol_20", "BTC_vol_60", "day_month", "day_week", "month"]] target_col = 'target' data = create_target_cum_forward_returns(data, 'BTC_returns', 10) learning_rate = 0.002 batch_size = 64 epochs = 100 split_fraction = 0.715 train_split = int(split_fraction * int(data.shape[0])) past = 10 future = 1 start = past + future end = start + train_split #%% split data into training - validation sets train_data = data.loc[0 : train_split - 1] val_data = data.loc[train_split:] #%% create features and target for training set & keras dataset feature_scaler = MinMaxScaler(feature_range= (-1, 1)) target_scaler = MinMaxScaler(feature_range= (-1, 1)) x_train = feature_scaler.fit_transform(train_data.drop(target_col, axis=1).values) # you get the mean and std y_train = target_scaler.fit_transform(data.iloc[start:end][target_col].values.reshape(-1, 1)) dataset_train = keras.preprocessing.timeseries_dataset_from_array( x_train, y_train, sequence_length=past, batch_size=batch_size, ) #%% create features and target for validation set & keras dataset x_end = len(val_data) - past - future label_start = train_split + past + future x_val = feature_scaler.transform(val_data.drop(target_col, axis=1).iloc[:x_end].values) # you use the training data's mean and std y_val = target_scaler.transform(data.iloc[label_start:][target_col].values.reshape(-1, 1)) dataset_val = keras.utils.timeseries_dataset_from_array( x_val, y_val, sequence_length=past, batch_size=batch_size, shuffle=False, ) #%% for batch in dataset_train.take(10): batch_inputs, batch_targets = batch print("Input shape:", batch_inputs.shape) print("Target shape:", batch_targets.shape) # print(batch_inputs) # print(batch_targets) # %% model = keras.Sequential() model.add(keras.layers.LSTM(units = 10, return_sequences = True, activation = 'sigmoid', input_shape=(batch_inputs.shape[1], batch_inputs.shape[2]))) model.add(keras.layers.Dropout(0.4)) model.add(keras.layers.Dense(units = 64, activation = 'sigmoid')) model.add(keras.layers.Dropout(0.4)) model.add(keras.layers.Dense(units = 32, activation = 'sigmoid')) model.add(keras.layers.Dropout(0.4)) model.add(keras.layers.Dense(units = 1)) optimizer = keras.optimizers.Adam(learning_rate=learning_rate) model.compile(optimizer=optimizer, loss="mean_squared_error") model.summary() # %% path_checkpoint = "model_checkpoint.h5" history = model.fit( dataset_train, epochs=epochs, validation_data=dataset_val, ) #%% pred = model.predict(rolling_window(x_val, 11)) pred = pred.reshape(pred.shape[0], 1) pred = target_scaler.inverse_transform(pred) print_regression_metrics(y_val, pred) #%% visualize_loss(history, "Training and Validation Loss")