from typing import Literal, Callable from sklearn.metrics import accuracy_score, f1_score, precision_score, recall_score from quantstats.stats import skew, sortino from utils.metrics import probabilistic_sharpe_ratio, sharpe_ratio from utils.helpers import get_first_valid_return_index import pandas as pd import numpy as np from data_loader.types import ForwardReturnSeries, ySeries from training.types import Stats, WeightsSeries def backtest(returns: pd.Series, signal: pd.Series, transaction_cost = 0.002) -> pd.Series: delta_pos = signal.diff(1).abs().fillna(0.) costs = transaction_cost * delta_pos return (signal * returns) - costs def __preprocess(forward_returns: ForwardReturnSeries, y_pred: pd.Series, y_true: pd.Series, no_of_classes: Literal['two', 'three-balanced', 'three-imbalanced'], discretize: bool) -> pd.DataFrame: y_pred.name = 'y_pred' forward_returns.name = 'forward_returns' df = pd.concat([y_pred, forward_returns],axis=1).dropna() discretize_func = get_discretize_function(no_of_classes) # make sure that we evaluate binary/three-way predictions even if the model is a regression df['sign_pred'] = df.y_pred.apply(discretize_func) if discretize else df.y_pred df['sign_true'] = y_true df['result'] = backtest(df.forward_returns, df.sign_pred) return df def evaluate_predictions( forward_returns: ForwardReturnSeries, y_pred: WeightsSeries, y_true: ySeries, no_of_classes: Literal['two', 'three-balanced', 'three-imbalanced'], print_results: bool, discretize: bool = False, ) -> Stats: # ignore the predictions until we see a non-zero returns (and definitely skip the first sliding_window_size) evaluate_from = max(get_first_valid_return_index(forward_returns), get_first_valid_return_index(y_pred)) forward_returns = pd.Series(forward_returns[evaluate_from:]) y_pred = pd.Series(y_pred[evaluate_from:]) df = __preprocess(forward_returns, y_pred, y_true, no_of_classes, discretize) scorecard = dict() def count_non_zero(series: pd.Series) -> int: return len(series[series != 0]) no_of_samples = count_non_zero(df.y_pred) scorecard['no_of_samples'] = no_of_samples sharpe = sharpe_ratio(df.result) scorecard['sharpe'] = sharpe benchmark_sharpe = sharpe_ratio(df.forward_returns) scorecard['benchmark_sharpe'] = benchmark_sharpe scorecard['prob_sharpe'] = probabilistic_sharpe_ratio(sharpe, benchmark_sharpe, no_of_samples) scorecard['sortino'] = sortino(df.result) scorecard['skew'] = skew(df.result) labels = [1, -1] if no_of_classes == 'two' else [1, -1, 0] avg_type = 'weighted' if no_of_classes == 'two' else 'macro' if discretize == True: scorecard['accuracy'] = accuracy_score(df.sign_true, df.sign_pred) * 100 scorecard['recall'] = recall_score(df.sign_true, df.sign_pred, labels = labels, average=avg_type) scorecard['precision'] = precision_score(df.sign_true, df.sign_pred, labels = labels, average=avg_type) scorecard['f1_score'] = f1_score(df.sign_true, df.sign_pred, labels = labels, average=avg_type) scorecard['edge'] = df.result.mean() scorecard['noise'] = df.y_pred.diff().abs().mean() scorecard['edge_to_noise'] = scorecard['edge'] / (scorecard['noise'] + 0.00001) if discretize == True: for index, row in df.sign_true.value_counts().iteritems(): scorecard['sign_true_ratio_' + str(index)] = row / len(df.sign_true) for index, row in df.sign_pred.value_counts().iteritems(): scorecard['sign_pred_ratio_' + str(index)] = row / len(df.sign_pred) scorecard = {k: round(float(v), 3) for k, v in scorecard.items()} if print_results: print(scorecard) return scorecard def __discretize_binary(x): return 1 if x > 0 else -1 def __discretize_threeway(x): return 0 if x == 0 else 1 if x > 0 else -1 def discretize_threeway_threshold(threshold: float) -> Callable: def discretize(current_value): lower_threshold = -threshold upper_threshold = threshold if np.isnan(current_value): return np.nan elif current_value <= lower_threshold: return -1 elif current_value > lower_threshold and current_value < upper_threshold: return 0 else: return 1 return discretize def get_discretize_function(no_of_classes: Literal['two', 'three-balanced', 'three-imbalanced']) -> Callable: return __discretize_binary if no_of_classes == 'two' else __discretize_threeway