feat(Data): added various data loading config options, walk forward method draft (#9)

* feat(Eval): added format_data_for_backtest()

* feat(Data): added many configurable parameters to load_files to reduce boilerplate and prepare for HPO

* feat(Core): added walk forward method of training/testing

* fix(Model): remove the unnecessary softmax activation from the keras models

* feat(Core): added walk_forward_train_test()
This commit is contained in:
Mark Aron Szulyovszky
2021-12-01 09:28:24 +01:00
committed by GitHub
parent d4676e099b
commit 7aedb91069
8 changed files with 678 additions and 75 deletions
+12 -1
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@@ -1,6 +1,8 @@
from math import sqrt
from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_error, mean_absolute_error, accuracy_score
from sklearn.metrics import confusion_matrix
import pandas as pd
def print_regression_metrics(y_true, y_pred):
rmse = sqrt(mean_squared_error(y_true, y_pred))
print("RMSE: %.2f" % rmse)
@@ -10,4 +12,13 @@ def print_regression_metrics(y_true, y_pred):
def print_classification_metrics(y_true, y_pred):
print("Accuracy: %.2f" % accuracy_score(y_true, y_pred))
print("Confusion Matrix: \n", confusion_matrix(y_true, y_pred))
print("Confusion Matrix: \n", confusion_matrix(y_true, y_pred))
def format_data_for_backtest(aggregated_data: pd.DataFrame, returns_col: str, only_test_data: pd.DataFrame, preds) -> pd.DataFrame:
backtest_data = aggregated_data.iloc[-only_test_data.shape[0]:].copy()[returns_col]
assert backtest_data.shape[0] == only_test_data.shape[0]
backtest_data = backtest_data.reset_index(drop=True)
return pd.concat([backtest_data, pd.Series(preds)], axis='columns')
# def backtest()
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@@ -0,0 +1,200 @@
import numpy as np
from numpy.lib.stride_tricks import as_strided
from numpy.core.numeric import normalize_axis_tuple
def sliding_window_and_flatten(x: np.array, window_size: int) -> np.array:
n_features = x.shape[1]
x = np.squeeze(__numpy_sliding_window_view(x, (window_size, n_features)), axis = 1)
return x.reshape(x.shape[0], -1)
def __numpy_sliding_window_view(x, window_shape, axis=None, *,
subok=False, writeable=False):
"""
Create a sliding window view into the array with the given window shape.
Also known as rolling or moving window, the window slides across all
dimensions of the array and extracts subsets of the array at all window
positions.
.. versionadded:: 1.20.0
Parameters
----------
x : array_like
Array to create the sliding window view from.
window_shape : int or tuple of int
Size of window over each axis that takes part in the sliding window.
If `axis` is not present, must have same length as the number of input
array dimensions. Single integers `i` are treated as if they were the
tuple `(i,)`.
axis : int or tuple of int, optional
Axis or axes along which the sliding window is applied.
By default, the sliding window is applied to all axes and
`window_shape[i]` will refer to axis `i` of `x`.
If `axis` is given as a `tuple of int`, `window_shape[i]` will refer to
the axis `axis[i]` of `x`.
Single integers `i` are treated as if they were the tuple `(i,)`.
subok : bool, optional
If True, sub-classes will be passed-through, otherwise the returned
array will be forced to be a base-class array (default).
writeable : bool, optional
When true, allow writing to the returned view. The default is false,
as this should be used with caution: the returned view contains the
same memory location multiple times, so writing to one location will
cause others to change.
Returns
-------
view : ndarray
Sliding window view of the array. The sliding window dimensions are
inserted at the end, and the original dimensions are trimmed as
required by the size of the sliding window.
That is, ``view.shape = x_shape_trimmed + window_shape``, where
``x_shape_trimmed`` is ``x.shape`` with every entry reduced by one less
than the corresponding window size.
See Also
--------
lib.stride_tricks.as_strided: A lower-level and less safe routine for
creating arbitrary views from custom shape and strides.
broadcast_to: broadcast an array to a given shape.
Notes
-----
For many applications using a sliding window view can be convenient, but
potentially very slow. Often specialized solutions exist, for example:
- `scipy.signal.fftconvolve`
- filtering functions in `scipy.ndimage`
- moving window functions provided by
`bottleneck <https://github.com/pydata/bottleneck>`_.
As a rough estimate, a sliding window approach with an input size of `N`
and a window size of `W` will scale as `O(N*W)` where frequently a special
algorithm can achieve `O(N)`. That means that the sliding window variant
for a window size of 100 can be a 100 times slower than a more specialized
version.
Nevertheless, for small window sizes, when no custom algorithm exists, or
as a prototyping and developing tool, this function can be a good solution.
Examples
--------
>>> x = np.arange(6)
>>> x.shape
(6,)
>>> v = sliding_window_view(x, 3)
>>> v.shape
(4, 3)
>>> v
array([[0, 1, 2],
[1, 2, 3],
[2, 3, 4],
[3, 4, 5]])
This also works in more dimensions, e.g.
>>> i, j = np.ogrid[:3, :4]
>>> x = 10*i + j
>>> x.shape
(3, 4)
>>> x
array([[ 0, 1, 2, 3],
[10, 11, 12, 13],
[20, 21, 22, 23]])
>>> shape = (2,2)
>>> v = sliding_window_view(x, shape)
>>> v.shape
(2, 3, 2, 2)
>>> v
array([[[[ 0, 1],
[10, 11]],
[[ 1, 2],
[11, 12]],
[[ 2, 3],
[12, 13]]],
[[[10, 11],
[20, 21]],
[[11, 12],
[21, 22]],
[[12, 13],
[22, 23]]]])
The axis can be specified explicitly:
>>> v = sliding_window_view(x, 3, 0)
>>> v.shape
(1, 4, 3)
>>> v
array([[[ 0, 10, 20],
[ 1, 11, 21],
[ 2, 12, 22],
[ 3, 13, 23]]])
The same axis can be used several times. In that case, every use reduces
the corresponding original dimension:
>>> v = sliding_window_view(x, (2, 3), (1, 1))
>>> v.shape
(3, 1, 2, 3)
>>> v
array([[[[ 0, 1, 2],
[ 1, 2, 3]]],
[[[10, 11, 12],
[11, 12, 13]]],
[[[20, 21, 22],
[21, 22, 23]]]])
Combining with stepped slicing (`::step`), this can be used to take sliding
views which skip elements:
>>> x = np.arange(7)
>>> sliding_window_view(x, 5)[:, ::2]
array([[0, 2, 4],
[1, 3, 5],
[2, 4, 6]])
or views which move by multiple elements
>>> x = np.arange(7)
>>> sliding_window_view(x, 3)[::2, :]
array([[0, 1, 2],
[2, 3, 4],
[4, 5, 6]])
A common application of `sliding_window_view` is the calculation of running
statistics. The simplest example is the
`moving average <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving_average>`_:
>>> x = np.arange(6)
>>> x.shape
(6,)
>>> v = sliding_window_view(x, 3)
>>> v.shape
(4, 3)
>>> v
array([[0, 1, 2],
[1, 2, 3],
[2, 3, 4],
[3, 4, 5]])
>>> moving_average = v.mean(axis=-1)
>>> moving_average
array([1., 2., 3., 4.])
Note that a sliding window approach is often **not** optimal (see Notes).
"""
window_shape = (tuple(window_shape)
if np.iterable(window_shape)
else (window_shape,))
# first convert input to array, possibly keeping subclass
x = np.array(x, copy=False, subok=subok)
window_shape_array = np.array(window_shape)
if np.any(window_shape_array < 0):
raise ValueError('`window_shape` cannot contain negative values')
if axis is None:
axis = tuple(range(x.ndim))
if len(window_shape) != len(axis):
raise ValueError(f'Since axis is `None`, must provide '
f'window_shape for all dimensions of `x`; '
f'got {len(window_shape)} window_shape elements '
f'and `x.ndim` is {x.ndim}.')
else:
axis = normalize_axis_tuple(axis, x.ndim, allow_duplicate=True)
if len(window_shape) != len(axis):
raise ValueError(f'Must provide matching length window_shape and '
f'axis; got {len(window_shape)} window_shape '
f'elements and {len(axis)} axes elements.')
out_strides = x.strides + tuple(x.strides[ax] for ax in axis)
# note: same axis can be windowed repeatedly
x_shape_trimmed = list(x.shape)
for ax, dim in zip(axis, window_shape):
if x_shape_trimmed[ax] < dim:
raise ValueError(
'window shape cannot be larger than input array shape')
x_shape_trimmed[ax] -= dim - 1
out_shape = tuple(x_shape_trimmed) + window_shape
return as_strided(x, strides=out_strides, shape=out_shape,
subok=subok, writeable=writeable)