- XGBoost ML model with 37 features for market direction prediction - Smart Money Concepts (SMC): Order Blocks, FVG, BOS, CHoCH - HMM market regime detection (trending/ranging/volatile) - ATR-based stop loss with 1.5 ATR minimum distance - Broker-level SL protection with fallback - Time-based exit (max 6 hours per trade) - Session-aware trading optimized for London/NY overlap - Auto-retraining based on market conditions - Telegram notifications and web dashboard - Backtest results: 63.9% win rate, 2.64 profit factor, 4.83 Sharpe Backtest period: Jan 2025 - Feb 2026, 654 trades, $4,189 net P/L Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Arsitektur AI — Smart Trading Bot
Dokumentasi lengkap semua komponen AI dan sistem pendukung.
Daftar Komponen
Inti AI & Analisis
| # | Komponen | File Source | Fungsi |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HMM Regime Detector | src/regime_detector.py |
Deteksi kondisi pasar (radar cuaca) |
| 2 | XGBoost Signal Predictor | src/ml_model.py |
Prediksi arah harga (navigator AI) |
| 3 | SMC Analyzer | src/smc_polars.py |
Analisis struktur pasar institusi (peta jalan) |
| 4 | Feature Engineering | src/feature_eng.py |
Pengolahan data mentah ke fitur ML (alat ukur) |
Proteksi & Manajemen Risiko
| # | Komponen | File Source | Fungsi |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Risk Management | src/smart_risk_manager.py |
Perlindungan modal (sabuk pengaman) |
| 6 | Session Filter | src/session_filter.py |
Pengaturan waktu trading (jadwal kerja) |
| 7 | Stop Loss (S/L) | Multi-file | Proteksi 4 lapis dari kerugian |
| 8 | Take Profit (T/P) | Multi-file | Pengambilan profit cerdas 6 layer |
Proses Trading
| # | Komponen | File Source | Fungsi |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Entry Trade | main_live.py |
Proses masuk posisi (11 filter) |
| 10 | Exit Trade | main_live.py |
Proses keluar posisi (10 kondisi) |
Pendukung
| # | Komponen | File Source | Fungsi |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | News Agent | src/news_agent.py |
Monitoring berita ekonomi |
| 12 | Telegram Notifications | src/telegram_notifier.py |
Notifikasi real-time ke Telegram |
Training & Validasi
| # | Komponen | File Source | Fungsi |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Auto Trainer | src/auto_trainer.py |
Retraining model otomatis (pelatih malam) |
| 14 | Backtest | backtests/backtest_live_sync.py |
Simulasi trading 100% sync dengan live |
| 15 | Dynamic Confidence | src/dynamic_confidence.py |
Penyesuaian threshold otomatis (termometer) |
Pipeline Lengkap
Raw OHLCV dari MT5
|
v
[Feature Engineering] -> 40+ fitur numerik (RSI, ATR, MACD, BB, EMA, ...)
|
v
[SMC Analyzer] -> Swing, FVG, OB, BOS, CHoCH, Liquidity
| + Signal (entry, SL ATR-based, TP ATR-capped)
|
+---+---+
| |
v v
[HMM] [XGBoost]
Regime Signal
| |
+---+---+
|
v
[Signal Combination] -> SMC + ML harus setuju
|
v
[News Agent] -> Monitor berita (tidak blocking)
|
v
[Session Filter] -> Cek waktu boleh trading?
|
v
[ENTRY TRADE] -> 11 filter harus PASS:
| Session, Risk Mode, SMC Signal, ML Confirm,
| ML Agree, Quality, Confirmation 2x, Pullback,
| Cooldown, Position Limit, Lot Size
|
v
[Risk Management] -> Hitung lot aman, apply multiplier
|
v
[Execute Order] -> Kirim ke MT5 dengan broker SL & TP
|
v
[Telegram] -> Notifikasi trade open
|
v
[EXIT MONITORING] -> Setiap 1 detik, 10 kondisi exit:
| Smart TP, Early Exit, Golden Hold, ML Reversal,
| Max Loss, Stall, Daily Limit, Weekend, Time-based, Hold
|
v
[Close Position] -> Record result, update risk, notify
Ringkasan Peran Setiap Komponen
| Komponen | Pertanyaan yang Dijawab |
|---|---|
| Feature Engineering | "Data mentah ini berarti apa?" |
| SMC Analyzer | "Dimana institusi besar trading? Entry/SL/TP dimana?" |
| HMM | "Kondisi pasar bagaimana sekarang?" |
| XGBoost | "Harga akan naik atau turun?" |
| Session Filter | "Sekarang waktu yang tepat untuk trading?" |
| News Agent | "Ada berita high-impact yang perlu diperhatikan?" |
| Risk Management | "Berapa besar boleh trading? Sudah aman?" |
| Stop Loss | "Bagaimana melindungi dari kerugian?" |
| Take Profit | "Kapan mengambil profit?" |
| Entry Trade | "Apakah semua syarat terpenuhi untuk masuk?" |
| Exit Trade | "Apakah sudah waktunya keluar?" |
| Telegram | "Apa yang sedang terjadi?" |
| Auto Trainer | "Apakah model AI masih akurat? Perlu dilatih ulang?" |
| Backtest | "Apakah strategi ini profitable di data historis?" |
| Dynamic Confidence | "Seberapa selektif bot harus trading saat ini?" |