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XauBot/src/smc_polars.py
T
GifariKemal 214b64945d feat: apply #28B smart breakeven + #31B H1 EMA20 filter, add backtests #26-#32
Live trading optimizations (cumulative: $2,807 net, 81.8% WR, Sharpe 3.97):
- #28B: Smart breakeven locks profit at entry + 0.5x ATR instead of fixed $2
- #31B: H1 Price vs EMA20 filter — BUY only when H1 bullish, SELL only when bearish

Backtests #26-#32 (7 scripts testing sell improvement, regime-aware entry,
confluence scoring, dynamic RR, multi-TF H1, and ML exit optimizer).
Winners: #28B (+$229), #31B (+$343). Failed: #26, #27, #29, #30, #32.

Also includes: web dashboard redesign, Docker setup, startup scripts.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-02-08 10:33:24 +07:00

1004 lines
38 KiB
Python

"""
Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Implementation - Pure Polars
========================================================
Native implementation of SMC concepts using Polars expressions.
NO PANDAS. NO smartmoneyconcepts library.
Implements:
- Fair Value Gaps (FVG)
- Swing Points (Fractal High/Low)
- Order Blocks
- Break of Structure (BOS)
- Change of Character (CHoCH)
- Liquidity Zones
"""
import polars as pl
import numpy as np
from typing import Tuple, Optional, Dict
from dataclasses import dataclass
from loguru import logger
@dataclass
class SMCSignal:
"""SMC trading signal."""
signal_type: str # "BUY" or "SELL"
entry_price: float
stop_loss: float
take_profit: float
confidence: float
reason: str
@property
def risk_reward(self) -> float:
"""Calculate risk/reward ratio."""
risk = abs(self.entry_price - self.stop_loss)
reward = abs(self.take_profit - self.entry_price)
return reward / risk if risk > 0 else 0
class SMCAnalyzer:
"""
Smart Money Concepts Analyzer using Pure Polars.
All calculations are vectorized using Polars expressions.
No loops, no Pandas, maximum performance.
"""
def __init__(
self,
swing_length: int = 5,
fvg_min_gap_pips: float = 2.0,
ob_lookback: int = 10,
):
"""
Initialize SMC Analyzer.
Args:
swing_length: Number of bars for swing detection
fvg_min_gap_pips: Minimum FVG gap size in pips
ob_lookback: Order block lookback period
"""
self.swing_length = swing_length
self.fvg_min_gap_pips = fvg_min_gap_pips
self.ob_lookback = ob_lookback
# Confidence weights based on backtested reliability
# These are calibrated from historical performance
self.confidence_weights = {
"base": 0.40, # Base confidence (minimum)
"structure_aligned": 0.15, # Market structure matches signal
"bos_choch": 0.12, # Break of Structure / Change of Character
"fvg": 0.08, # Fair Value Gap present
"ob": 0.10, # Order Block present
"trend_strength": 0.10, # Strong trend (multiple BOS)
"fresh_level": 0.05, # First touch of key level
}
def calculate_confidence(
self,
signal_type: str,
market_structure: int,
has_break: bool,
has_fvg: bool,
has_ob: bool,
df: Optional[pl.DataFrame] = None,
) -> float:
"""
Calculate calibrated confidence score for a signal.
Based on backtested reliability of each component:
- Market structure alignment: +15%
- BOS/CHoCH confirmation: +12%
- FVG present: +8%
- Order Block present: +10%
- Trend strength: +10%
- Fresh level (first touch): +5%
Returns:
Confidence between 0.40 and 0.85
"""
conf = self.confidence_weights["base"]
# Structure alignment (strongest signal)
structure_aligned = (
(signal_type == "BUY" and market_structure == 1) or
(signal_type == "SELL" and market_structure == -1)
)
if structure_aligned:
conf += self.confidence_weights["structure_aligned"]
# BOS/CHoCH confirmation
if has_break:
conf += self.confidence_weights["bos_choch"]
# FVG present
if has_fvg:
conf += self.confidence_weights["fvg"]
# Order Block present
if has_ob:
conf += self.confidence_weights["ob"]
# Trend strength (check for multiple BOS in same direction)
if df is not None and "bos" in df.columns:
recent_bos = df.tail(20)["bos"].to_list()
if signal_type == "BUY":
bos_count = sum(1 for b in recent_bos if b == 1)
else:
bos_count = sum(1 for b in recent_bos if b == -1)
if bos_count >= 2:
conf += self.confidence_weights["trend_strength"]
# Cap confidence at 0.85 (never 100% certain)
return min(conf, 0.85)
def _calculate_dynamic_rr(
self,
market_structure: int,
has_bullish_break: bool,
has_bearish_break: bool,
has_fvg: bool,
has_ob: bool,
df: Optional[pl.DataFrame] = None,
) -> float:
"""
Calculate dynamic Risk:Reward ratio based on market conditions.
Returns RR between 1.5 and 2.0:
- 2.0: Strong trend, high confidence -> let profits run
- 1.5: Ranging/uncertain -> take profit earlier (higher hit rate)
Factors considered:
1. Market structure strength (trending vs ranging)
2. Number of confirmations (BOS, FVG, OB)
3. Trend strength (multiple BOS in same direction)
4. Volatility (high vol = lower RR for faster exit)
"""
# Start with base RR
rr = 1.5 # Conservative base
# === Factor 1: Market Structure ===
# Strong trend = higher RR
if market_structure != 0: # Trending (bullish or bearish)
rr += 0.15
# === Factor 2: Structure Break Confirmation ===
if has_bullish_break or has_bearish_break:
rr += 0.10 # BOS/CHoCH adds confidence
# === Factor 3: Entry Zone Confirmation ===
if has_fvg:
rr += 0.05 # FVG present
if has_ob:
rr += 0.05 # Order Block present
# === Factor 4: Trend Strength (multiple BOS) ===
if df is not None and "bos" in df.columns:
recent_bos = df.tail(20)["bos"].to_list()
bos_count = sum(1 for b in recent_bos if b != 0)
if bos_count >= 3: # Strong trend with multiple breaks
rr += 0.10
elif bos_count >= 2:
rr += 0.05
# === Factor 5: Volatility Adjustment ===
# High volatility = reduce RR (take profit faster)
if df is not None and "atr" in df.columns:
atr = df.tail(1)["atr"].item()
if atr is not None:
# Typical XAUUSD ATR is ~$10-15
if atr > 18: # High volatility
rr -= 0.15 # Take profit faster
elif atr > 15: # Above average volatility
rr -= 0.05
# === Factor 6: Check for ranging market (low BOS count) ===
if df is not None and "bos" in df.columns:
recent_bos = df.tail(30)["bos"].to_list()
bos_count = sum(1 for b in recent_bos if b != 0)
if bos_count == 0: # No structure breaks = ranging
rr = 1.5 # Use minimum RR in ranging market
# Clamp RR between 1.5 and 2.0
rr = max(1.5, min(2.0, rr))
logger.debug(f"Dynamic RR: {rr:.2f} (struct={market_structure}, break={has_bullish_break or has_bearish_break}, fvg={has_fvg}, ob={has_ob})")
return rr
def calculate_all(self, df: pl.DataFrame) -> pl.DataFrame:
"""
Calculate all SMC indicators.
Args:
df: Polars DataFrame with OHLCV data
Returns:
DataFrame with all SMC columns added
"""
df = self.calculate_swing_points(df)
df = self.calculate_fvg(df)
df = self.calculate_order_blocks(df)
df = self.calculate_bos_choch(df)
return df
def calculate_fvg(self, df: pl.DataFrame) -> pl.DataFrame:
"""
Calculate Fair Value Gaps (FVG) using Polars expressions.
Bullish FVG: Current Low > Previous-2 High (gap up)
Bearish FVG: Current High < Previous-2 Low (gap down)
This is a vectorized implementation - no loops.
Args:
df: DataFrame with OHLCV data
Returns:
DataFrame with FVG columns:
- is_fvg_bull: Boolean for bullish FVG
- is_fvg_bear: Boolean for bearish FVG
- fvg_top: Top of FVG zone
- fvg_bottom: Bottom of FVG zone
- fvg_mid: Midpoint of FVG (50% retracement target)
"""
# Get shifted values using Polars expressions
# FIX: NO LOOKAHEAD - detect FVG on the THIRD candle (after it's confirmed)
# We only use PAST data (shift positive values)
df = df.with_columns([
# Previous candle values (t-1)
pl.col("high").shift(1).alias("_prev_high"),
pl.col("low").shift(1).alias("_prev_low"),
# Candle before previous (t-2) - this is the FIRST candle of FVG pattern
pl.col("high").shift(2).alias("_prev2_high"),
pl.col("low").shift(2).alias("_prev2_low"),
# Current candle is the THIRD candle - NO shift(-1) needed!
])
# Calculate FVG conditions - detected on THIRD candle (current)
# Bullish FVG: First candle high < Third candle low (gap up)
# Bearish FVG: First candle low > Third candle high (gap down)
# NO LOOKAHEAD: we detect AFTER the pattern is complete
df = df.with_columns([
# Bullish FVG: gap between candle 1's high and current candle's low
(pl.col("_prev2_high") < pl.col("low")).alias("is_fvg_bull"),
# Bearish FVG: gap between candle 1's low and current candle's high
(pl.col("_prev2_low") > pl.col("high")).alias("is_fvg_bear"),
])
# Calculate FVG zones using CURRENT candle (no lookahead)
df = df.with_columns([
# Bullish FVG zone: from prev2_high (bottom) to current_low (top)
pl.when(pl.col("is_fvg_bull"))
.then(pl.col("low")) # Current candle low is FVG top
.when(pl.col("is_fvg_bear"))
.then(pl.col("_prev2_low")) # First candle low is FVG top for bearish
.otherwise(None)
.alias("fvg_top"),
pl.when(pl.col("is_fvg_bull"))
.then(pl.col("_prev2_high")) # First candle high is FVG bottom for bullish
.when(pl.col("is_fvg_bear"))
.then(pl.col("high")) # Current candle high is FVG bottom
.otherwise(None)
.alias("fvg_bottom"),
])
# Calculate FVG midpoint (50% retracement)
df = df.with_columns([
((pl.col("fvg_top") + pl.col("fvg_bottom")) / 2).alias("fvg_mid"),
])
# Combined FVG signal: 1 for bullish, -1 for bearish, 0 for none
df = df.with_columns([
pl.when(pl.col("is_fvg_bull"))
.then(1)
.when(pl.col("is_fvg_bear"))
.then(-1)
.otherwise(0)
.alias("fvg_signal"),
])
# Drop temporary columns (no _next columns since we removed lookahead)
df = df.drop([
"_prev_high", "_prev_low", "_prev2_high", "_prev2_low"
])
logger.debug(f"FVG calculation complete. Bullish: {df['is_fvg_bull'].sum()}, Bearish: {df['is_fvg_bear'].sum()}")
return df
def calculate_swing_points(self, df: pl.DataFrame) -> pl.DataFrame:
"""
Calculate Swing Points (Fractal Highs/Lows) using rolling windows.
A Swing High is when the current high is the highest in the window.
A Swing Low is when the current low is the lowest in the window.
Uses centered rolling window for look-ahead detection.
Args:
df: DataFrame with OHLCV data
Returns:
DataFrame with swing point columns:
- swing_high: 1 if swing high, 0 otherwise
- swing_low: -1 if swing low, 0 otherwise
- swing_high_level: Price level of swing high
- swing_low_level: Price level of swing low
"""
window_size = 2 * self.swing_length + 1
# Calculate rolling max/min WITHOUT LOOKAHEAD
# FIX: We detect swing points AFTER they're confirmed (swing_length bars later)
# This means swing detection is delayed but NO FUTURE DATA is used
#
# Strategy: A swing high at bar [i] is confirmed at bar [i + swing_length]
# when we can verify bar [i] was the highest in window
# We use shift(swing_length) to look back at the confirmed swing point
df = df.with_columns([
# Look at past window_size bars only
pl.col("high")
.rolling_max(window_size=window_size, center=False)
.alias("_roll_max"),
pl.col("low")
.rolling_min(window_size=window_size, center=False)
.alias("_roll_min"),
# Get the high/low from swing_length bars ago (the "center" point)
pl.col("high").shift(self.swing_length).alias("_center_high"),
pl.col("low").shift(self.swing_length).alias("_center_low"),
])
# Detect swing points: the CENTER point equals rolling extreme
# This detects swing points swing_length bars LATE (after confirmation)
# NO LOOKAHEAD: we only confirm after seeing bars on both sides
df = df.with_columns([
# Swing High: center high equals rolling max (confirmed swing high)
pl.when(pl.col("_center_high") == pl.col("_roll_max"))
.then(1)
.otherwise(0)
.alias("swing_high"),
# Swing Low: center low equals rolling min (confirmed swing low)
pl.when(pl.col("_center_low") == pl.col("_roll_min"))
.then(-1)
.otherwise(0)
.alias("swing_low"),
])
# Store swing levels (use center values, not current values)
df = df.with_columns([
pl.when(pl.col("swing_high") == 1)
.then(pl.col("_center_high"))
.otherwise(None)
.alias("swing_high_level"),
pl.when(pl.col("swing_low") == -1)
.then(pl.col("_center_low"))
.otherwise(None)
.alias("swing_low_level"),
])
# Forward fill last swing levels for reference
df = df.with_columns([
pl.col("swing_high_level")
.forward_fill()
.alias("last_swing_high"),
pl.col("swing_low_level")
.forward_fill()
.alias("last_swing_low"),
])
# Drop temporary columns
df = df.drop(["_roll_max", "_roll_min", "_center_high", "_center_low"])
swing_highs = (df["swing_high"] == 1).sum()
swing_lows = (df["swing_low"] == -1).sum()
logger.debug(f"Swing points: {swing_highs} highs, {swing_lows} lows")
return df
def calculate_order_blocks(self, df: pl.DataFrame) -> pl.DataFrame:
"""
Calculate Order Blocks using vectorized Polars operations.
Bullish Order Block: Last bearish candle before a bullish impulse
that creates a swing low and breaks structure.
Bearish Order Block: Last bullish candle before a bearish impulse
that creates a swing high and breaks structure.
This implementation uses numpy for the complex lookback logic,
then converts back to Polars for performance.
Args:
df: DataFrame with OHLCV and swing point data
Returns:
DataFrame with Order Block columns:
- ob: 1 for bullish OB, -1 for bearish OB, 0 for none
- ob_top: Top of order block zone
- ob_bottom: Bottom of order block zone
- ob_mitigated: True if OB has been mitigated
"""
# Ensure swing points are calculated
if "swing_high" not in df.columns:
df = self.calculate_swing_points(df)
# Extract numpy arrays for complex logic
opens = df["open"].to_numpy()
highs = df["high"].to_numpy()
lows = df["low"].to_numpy()
closes = df["close"].to_numpy()
swing_highs = df["swing_high"].to_numpy()
swing_lows = df["swing_low"].to_numpy()
n = len(df)
ob = np.zeros(n, dtype=np.int8)
ob_top = np.full(n, np.nan)
ob_bottom = np.full(n, np.nan)
for i in range(self.ob_lookback, n):
# Check for swing low -> Bullish Order Block
# FIX: NO LOOKAHEAD - validate OB at CURRENT bar, not future bar
if swing_lows[i] == -1:
# Look for last bearish candle before swing low
for j in range(i - 1, max(0, i - self.ob_lookback), -1):
if closes[j] < opens[j]: # Bearish candle
# FIX: Validate OB using CURRENT bar (closes[i]) not future bar
# OB is valid if current close is above OB high (structure broken)
if closes[i] > highs[j]:
ob[j] = 1 # Bullish OB
ob_top[j] = highs[j]
ob_bottom[j] = lows[j]
break
# Check for swing high -> Bearish Order Block
if swing_highs[i] == 1:
# Look for last bullish candle before swing high
for j in range(i - 1, max(0, i - self.ob_lookback), -1):
if closes[j] > opens[j]: # Bullish candle
# FIX: Validate OB using CURRENT bar (closes[i]) not future bar
# OB is valid if current close is below OB low (structure broken)
if closes[i] < lows[j]:
ob[j] = -1 # Bearish OB
ob_top[j] = highs[j]
ob_bottom[j] = lows[j]
break
# Add to DataFrame
df = df.with_columns([
pl.Series("ob", ob),
pl.Series("ob_top", ob_top),
pl.Series("ob_bottom", ob_bottom),
])
# Calculate OB mitigation (price has revisited the OB zone)
df = df.with_columns([
# Forward fill OB zones for mitigation checking
pl.col("ob_top").forward_fill().alias("_ob_top_ff"),
pl.col("ob_bottom").forward_fill().alias("_ob_bottom_ff"),
pl.col("ob").forward_fill().alias("_ob_ff"),
])
# Check if current price has entered OB zone (mitigation)
df = df.with_columns([
pl.when(
(pl.col("_ob_ff") == 1) &
(pl.col("low") <= pl.col("_ob_top_ff")) &
(pl.col("high") >= pl.col("_ob_bottom_ff"))
)
.then(True)
.when(
(pl.col("_ob_ff") == -1) &
(pl.col("high") >= pl.col("_ob_bottom_ff")) &
(pl.col("low") <= pl.col("_ob_top_ff"))
)
.then(True)
.otherwise(False)
.alias("ob_mitigated"),
])
# Drop temporary columns
df = df.drop(["_ob_top_ff", "_ob_bottom_ff", "_ob_ff"])
bullish_obs = (df["ob"] == 1).sum()
bearish_obs = (df["ob"] == -1).sum()
logger.debug(f"Order Blocks: {bullish_obs} bullish, {bearish_obs} bearish")
return df
def calculate_bos_choch(self, df: pl.DataFrame) -> pl.DataFrame:
"""
Calculate Break of Structure (BOS) and Change of Character (CHoCH).
BOS: Structure break in the direction of the trend (continuation)
CHoCH: Structure break against the trend (reversal signal)
Uses numpy for stateful trend tracking, then converts to Polars.
Args:
df: DataFrame with OHLCV and swing point data
Returns:
DataFrame with BOS/CHoCH columns:
- bos: 1 for bullish BOS, -1 for bearish BOS
- choch: 1 for bullish CHoCH, -1 for bearish CHoCH
- market_structure: Current market structure (1=bullish, -1=bearish)
"""
# Ensure swing points are calculated
if "swing_high" not in df.columns:
df = self.calculate_swing_points(df)
# Extract arrays
highs = df["high"].to_numpy()
lows = df["low"].to_numpy()
closes = df["close"].to_numpy()
swing_highs = df["swing_high"].to_numpy()
swing_lows = df["swing_low"].to_numpy()
swing_high_levels = df["swing_high_level"].to_numpy() if "swing_high_level" in df.columns else np.full(len(df), np.nan)
swing_low_levels = df["swing_low_level"].to_numpy() if "swing_low_level" in df.columns else np.full(len(df), np.nan)
n = len(df)
bos = np.zeros(n, dtype=np.int8)
choch = np.zeros(n, dtype=np.int8)
market_structure = np.zeros(n, dtype=np.int8)
# Track last significant swing levels
last_swing_high = np.nan
last_swing_low = np.nan
trend = 0 # 0=neutral, 1=bullish, -1=bearish
for i in range(self.swing_length, n):
# Update last swing levels
if swing_highs[i] == 1 and not np.isnan(swing_high_levels[i]):
last_swing_high = swing_high_levels[i]
if swing_lows[i] == -1 and not np.isnan(swing_low_levels[i]):
last_swing_low = swing_low_levels[i]
market_structure[i] = trend
# Check for break of swing high (bullish break)
if not np.isnan(last_swing_high):
if closes[i] > last_swing_high:
if trend == 1: # Continuing bullish trend
bos[i] = 1 # Bullish BOS
elif trend == -1: # Was bearish, now breaking up
choch[i] = 1 # Bullish CHoCH (reversal)
trend = 1
last_swing_high = np.nan # Reset after break
# Check for break of swing low (bearish break)
if not np.isnan(last_swing_low):
if closes[i] < last_swing_low:
if trend == -1: # Continuing bearish trend
bos[i] = -1 # Bearish BOS
elif trend == 1: # Was bullish, now breaking down
choch[i] = -1 # Bearish CHoCH (reversal)
trend = -1
last_swing_low = np.nan # Reset after break
market_structure[i] = trend
# Add to DataFrame
df = df.with_columns([
pl.Series("bos", bos),
pl.Series("choch", choch),
pl.Series("market_structure", market_structure),
])
bullish_bos = (df["bos"] == 1).sum()
bearish_bos = (df["bos"] == -1).sum()
bullish_choch = (df["choch"] == 1).sum()
bearish_choch = (df["choch"] == -1).sum()
logger.debug(f"BOS: {bullish_bos} bullish, {bearish_bos} bearish")
logger.debug(f"CHoCH: {bullish_choch} bullish, {bearish_choch} bearish")
return df
def calculate_liquidity_zones(self, df: pl.DataFrame) -> pl.DataFrame:
"""
Calculate Liquidity Zones (Equal Highs/Lows and BSL/SSL).
OPTIMIZED: Uses native Polars expressions instead of rolling_map for better performance.
Buy Side Liquidity (BSL): Clusters of equal highs (stop losses of shorts)
Sell Side Liquidity (SSL): Clusters of equal lows (stop losses of longs)
Args:
df: DataFrame with OHLCV data
Returns:
DataFrame with liquidity columns:
- bsl_level: Buy side liquidity level
- ssl_level: Sell side liquidity level
- liquidity_sweep: True when liquidity is swept
"""
window_size = 20
# OPTIMIZED: Use rolling_std to detect price clusters
# Low standard deviation = prices are similar (potential liquidity zone)
# This is much faster than rolling_map with lambda
df = df.with_columns([
# Rolling std of highs - low std means similar prices (cluster)
pl.col("high")
.rolling_std(window_size=window_size)
.alias("_high_std"),
# Rolling std of lows
pl.col("low")
.rolling_std(window_size=window_size)
.alias("_low_std"),
# Rolling mean for reference
pl.col("high")
.rolling_mean(window_size=window_size)
.alias("_high_mean"),
pl.col("low")
.rolling_mean(window_size=window_size)
.alias("_low_mean"),
])
# Calculate coefficient of variation (std/mean) - lower = more clustered
# Threshold: if CV < 0.001 (0.1%), prices are very similar
cv_threshold = 0.001
df = df.with_columns([
# High cluster detection
pl.when(
(pl.col("_high_std") / pl.col("_high_mean")) < cv_threshold
)
.then(pl.col("high"))
.otherwise(None)
.alias("bsl_level"),
# Low cluster detection
pl.when(
(pl.col("_low_std") / pl.col("_low_mean")) < cv_threshold
)
.then(pl.col("low"))
.otherwise(None)
.alias("ssl_level"),
])
# Forward fill liquidity levels
df = df.with_columns([
pl.col("bsl_level").forward_fill().alias("_bsl_ff"),
pl.col("ssl_level").forward_fill().alias("_ssl_ff"),
])
# Detect liquidity sweeps
df = df.with_columns([
# BSL sweep: high goes above BSL then closes below
pl.when(
(pl.col("high") > pl.col("_bsl_ff").shift(1)) &
(pl.col("close") < pl.col("_bsl_ff").shift(1))
)
.then(pl.lit("BSL"))
.when(
(pl.col("low") < pl.col("_ssl_ff").shift(1)) &
(pl.col("close") > pl.col("_ssl_ff").shift(1))
)
.then(pl.lit("SSL"))
.otherwise(None)
.alias("liquidity_sweep"),
])
# Drop temporary columns
df = df.drop(["_high_std", "_low_std", "_high_mean", "_low_mean", "_bsl_ff", "_ssl_ff"])
return df
def generate_signal(self, df: pl.DataFrame) -> Optional[SMCSignal]:
"""
Generate trading signal based on SMC analysis.
Signal Logic (RELAXED for active trading):
1. Check market structure (BOS/CHoCH) - extended lookback
2. Find valid FVG OR Order Block in recent candles
3. Generate signal based on best available setup
Args:
df: DataFrame with all SMC indicators
Returns:
SMCSignal if valid setup found, None otherwise
"""
# Get latest row
if len(df) < 10:
return None
latest = df.tail(1)
current_close = latest["close"].item()
current_high = latest["high"].item()
current_low = latest["low"].item()
market_structure = latest["market_structure"].item() if "market_structure" in df.columns else 0
# Check for recent BOS/CHoCH (extended to 10 candles)
recent_df = df.tail(10)
recent_bos = recent_df["bos"].to_list() if "bos" in df.columns else []
recent_choch = recent_df["choch"].to_list() if "choch" in df.columns else []
# Check for FVG in recent candles (not just current)
recent_fvg_bull = recent_df["is_fvg_bull"].to_list() if "is_fvg_bull" in df.columns else []
recent_fvg_bear = recent_df["is_fvg_bear"].to_list() if "is_fvg_bear" in df.columns else []
# Get FVG zones from recent candles
fvg_bottoms = recent_df["fvg_bottom"].to_list() if "fvg_bottom" in df.columns else []
fvg_tops = recent_df["fvg_top"].to_list() if "fvg_top" in df.columns else []
# Check for Order Block in recent candles
recent_obs = recent_df["ob"].to_list() if "ob" in df.columns else []
ob_tops = recent_df["ob_top"].to_list() if "ob_top" in df.columns else []
ob_bottoms = recent_df["ob_bottom"].to_list() if "ob_bottom" in df.columns else []
# Get swing levels for SL
last_swing_high = latest["last_swing_high"].item() if "last_swing_high" in df.columns else None
last_swing_low = latest["last_swing_low"].item() if "last_swing_low" in df.columns else None
signal = None
# Determine if there's a recent bullish/bearish setup
has_bullish_break = 1 in recent_bos or 1 in recent_choch
has_bearish_break = -1 in recent_bos or -1 in recent_choch
has_bullish_fvg = any(recent_fvg_bull)
has_bearish_fvg = any(recent_fvg_bear)
has_bullish_ob = 1 in recent_obs
has_bearish_ob = -1 in recent_obs
# Get valid FVG/OB zone for entry
def get_valid_bullish_zone():
# Find most recent bullish FVG or OB
for i in range(len(recent_fvg_bull) - 1, -1, -1):
if recent_fvg_bull[i] and fvg_bottoms[i] is not None:
return fvg_bottoms[i], "FVG"
for i in range(len(recent_obs) - 1, -1, -1):
if recent_obs[i] == 1 and ob_bottoms[i] is not None:
return ob_bottoms[i], "OB"
return None, None
def get_valid_bearish_zone():
# Find most recent bearish FVG or OB
for i in range(len(recent_fvg_bear) - 1, -1, -1):
if recent_fvg_bear[i] and fvg_tops[i] is not None:
return fvg_tops[i], "FVG"
for i in range(len(recent_obs) - 1, -1, -1):
if recent_obs[i] == -1 and ob_tops[i] is not None:
return ob_tops[i], "OB"
return None, None
# Get ATR for dynamic SL/TP calculation
# FIX: Realistic ATR fallback for XAUUSD (~$12-15 typical)
if "atr" in df.columns:
atr = latest["atr"].item()
if atr is None or atr <= 0 or atr > current_close * 0.05: # Sanity check
atr = 12.0 # Default realistic ATR for XAUUSD
else:
atr = 12.0 # Default realistic ATR for XAUUSD
# SL: 1.5-2 ATR distance (protects against noise)
min_sl_distance = 1.5 * atr
# === FIXED RR RATIO 1:1.5 ===
# Based on backtest analysis: RR 1:2 only hits TP 14% of the time
# RR 1:1.5 is more realistic for higher hit rate
min_rr_ratio = 1.5
# BULLISH SIGNAL CONDITIONS
# Need: bullish structure OR recent bullish break, AND (FVG OR OB)
if ((market_structure == 1 or has_bullish_break) and
(has_bullish_fvg or has_bullish_ob)):
entry_zone, zone_type = get_valid_bullish_zone()
# FIX: ALWAYS use current_close as entry (no stale prices)
# FVG/OB zone is just for confirmation, not entry price
entry = current_close
# SL below swing low or ATR-based (use the FURTHER one to prevent whipsaw)
swing_sl = last_swing_low if last_swing_low and last_swing_low < entry else None
atr_sl = entry - min_sl_distance
if swing_sl:
# Use the further SL (more protection)
sl = min(swing_sl, atr_sl)
else:
sl = atr_sl
# Ensure SL is at least min_sl_distance away
if entry - sl < min_sl_distance:
sl = entry - min_sl_distance
# FIXED TP at RR 1:1.5
risk = entry - sl
tp = entry + (risk * min_rr_ratio)
# VALIDATE RR before creating signal
actual_rr = (tp - entry) / risk if risk > 0 else 0
if actual_rr < min_rr_ratio:
logger.debug(f"Skipping BUY signal: RR {actual_rr:.2f} < {min_rr_ratio}")
signal = None
else:
# Calibrated confidence calculation
conf = self.calculate_confidence(
signal_type="BUY",
market_structure=market_structure,
has_break=has_bullish_break,
has_fvg=has_bullish_fvg,
has_ob=has_bullish_ob,
df=df,
)
reason_parts = []
if has_bullish_break:
reason_parts.append("BOS/CHoCH")
if zone_type == "FVG":
reason_parts.append("FVG")
if zone_type == "OB":
reason_parts.append("OB")
signal = SMCSignal(
signal_type="BUY",
entry_price=entry,
stop_loss=sl,
take_profit=tp,
confidence=conf,
reason="Bullish " + " + ".join(reason_parts),
)
# BEARISH SIGNAL CONDITIONS
elif ((market_structure == -1 or has_bearish_break) and
(has_bearish_fvg or has_bearish_ob)):
entry_zone, zone_type = get_valid_bearish_zone()
# FIX: ALWAYS use current_close as entry (no stale prices)
entry = current_close
# SL above swing high or ATR-based (use the FURTHER one to prevent whipsaw)
swing_sl = last_swing_high if last_swing_high and last_swing_high > entry else None
atr_sl = entry + min_sl_distance
if swing_sl:
# Use the further SL (more protection)
sl = max(swing_sl, atr_sl)
else:
sl = atr_sl
# Ensure SL is at least min_sl_distance away
if sl - entry < min_sl_distance:
sl = entry + min_sl_distance
# FIXED TP at RR 1:1.5
risk = sl - entry
tp = entry - (risk * min_rr_ratio)
# VALIDATE RR before creating signal
actual_rr = (entry - tp) / risk if risk > 0 else 0
if actual_rr < min_rr_ratio:
logger.debug(f"Skipping SELL signal: RR {actual_rr:.2f} < {min_rr_ratio}")
signal = None
else:
# Calibrated confidence calculation
conf = self.calculate_confidence(
signal_type="SELL",
market_structure=market_structure,
has_break=has_bearish_break,
has_fvg=has_bearish_fvg,
has_ob=has_bearish_ob,
df=df,
)
reason_parts = []
if has_bearish_break:
reason_parts.append("BOS/CHoCH")
if zone_type == "FVG":
reason_parts.append("FVG")
if zone_type == "OB":
reason_parts.append("OB")
signal = SMCSignal(
signal_type="SELL",
entry_price=entry,
stop_loss=sl,
take_profit=tp,
confidence=min(conf, 0.85),
reason="Bearish " + " + ".join(reason_parts),
)
if signal:
logger.info(f"SMC Signal: {signal.signal_type} @ {signal.entry_price:.5f}, "
f"SL: {signal.stop_loss:.5f}, TP: {signal.take_profit:.5f}, "
f"RR: {signal.risk_reward:.2f}, Confidence: {signal.confidence:.2f}")
return signal
def calculate_smc_summary(df: pl.DataFrame) -> Dict:
"""
Calculate summary statistics for SMC analysis.
Args:
df: DataFrame with SMC indicators
Returns:
Dictionary with summary statistics
"""
summary = {
"total_bars": len(df),
"swing_highs": (df["swing_high"] == 1).sum() if "swing_high" in df.columns else 0,
"swing_lows": (df["swing_low"] == -1).sum() if "swing_low" in df.columns else 0,
"bullish_fvg": df["is_fvg_bull"].sum() if "is_fvg_bull" in df.columns else 0,
"bearish_fvg": df["is_fvg_bear"].sum() if "is_fvg_bear" in df.columns else 0,
"bullish_ob": (df["ob"] == 1).sum() if "ob" in df.columns else 0,
"bearish_ob": (df["ob"] == -1).sum() if "ob" in df.columns else 0,
"bullish_bos": (df["bos"] == 1).sum() if "bos" in df.columns else 0,
"bearish_bos": (df["bos"] == -1).sum() if "bos" in df.columns else 0,
"bullish_choch": (df["choch"] == 1).sum() if "choch" in df.columns else 0,
"bearish_choch": (df["choch"] == -1).sum() if "choch" in df.columns else 0,
}
# Current market structure
if "market_structure" in df.columns:
current_structure = df["market_structure"].tail(1).item()
summary["current_structure"] = "BULLISH" if current_structure == 1 else "BEARISH" if current_structure == -1 else "NEUTRAL"
return summary
if __name__ == "__main__":
# Test SMC analyzer with synthetic data
import numpy as np
from datetime import datetime, timedelta
# Create synthetic OHLCV data
np.random.seed(42)
n = 500
base_price = 2000.0
returns = np.random.randn(n) * 0.002
prices = base_price * np.exp(np.cumsum(returns))
df = pl.DataFrame({
"time": [datetime.now() - timedelta(minutes=15*i) for i in range(n-1, -1, -1)],
"open": prices,
"high": prices * (1 + np.abs(np.random.randn(n)) * 0.001),
"low": prices * (1 - np.abs(np.random.randn(n)) * 0.001),
"close": prices * (1 + np.random.randn(n) * 0.0005),
"volume": np.random.randint(1000, 10000, n),
})
# Initialize analyzer
analyzer = SMCAnalyzer(swing_length=5)
# Calculate all SMC indicators
df = analyzer.calculate_all(df)
# Print summary
summary = calculate_smc_summary(df)
print("\n=== SMC Analysis Summary ===")
for key, value in summary.items():
print(f"{key}: {value}")
# Generate signal
signal = analyzer.generate_signal(df)
if signal:
print(f"\n=== Trading Signal ===")
print(f"Type: {signal.signal_type}")
print(f"Entry: {signal.entry_price:.2f}")
print(f"SL: {signal.stop_loss:.2f}")
print(f"TP: {signal.take_profit:.2f}")
print(f"R:R: {signal.risk_reward:.2f}")
print(f"Confidence: {signal.confidence:.2%}")
print(f"Reason: {signal.reason}")
else:
print("\nNo valid signal")
# Show columns
print(f"\n=== DataFrame Columns ===")
print(df.columns)