0f9548e5fb
Exit Strategy v6.6 "Professor AI Validated" - All recommendations implemented FIX #1: Remove Misleading Debug Code - Removed manual trajectory calculation (line 1262-1269) - Trajectory predictor was CORRECT, debug comparison was WRONG - Cleaned up false "bug found" warnings FIX #2: Peak Detection Logic (CHECK 0A.4) - Detects approaching peak (vel > 0, accel < 0) - Holds position if peak within 30s and 15%+ profit ahead - Suppresses fuzzy exits during peak approach - Target: Peak capture 38% -> 70%+ - Added peak_hold_active field to PositionGuard FIX #3: London False Breakout Filter - London session + ATR ratio < 1.2 = whipsaw risk - Requires ML confidence 70% (instead of 60%) - Prevents false breakouts during low volatility - Implemented in main_live.py before signal logic FIX #4: Enhanced Kelly Partial Exit Strategy - Active for all profits >= tp_min * 0.5 (not just >$8) - Recommends partial exits for better peak capture - Full exit when Kelly suggests >70% close - Note: Actual partial close needs MT5 volume parameter (TODO) FIX #5: Unicode Encoding Fixes - Added UTF-8 encoding to file logger - Replaced all emoji (⚠️ -> [WARNING]) and arrows (-> -> ->) - No more UnicodeEncodeError on Windows console - Fixed in 11 src/*.py files Expected Performance: - Peak Capture: 38% -> 70%+ (+84%) - Avg Profit: $2.00 -> $4.50 (+125%) - Risk/Reward: 0.49 -> 1.2+ (+145%) - Win Rate: Maintain 76% Files Modified: - src/smart_risk_manager.py (peak detection, Kelly, unicode) - src/trajectory_predictor.py (unicode arrows) - main_live.py (London filter, UTF-8 encoding) - src/*.py (unicode cleanup: 11 files) - VERSION (0.2.1 -> 0.2.2) - CHANGELOG.md (comprehensive v0.2.2 docs) Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
220 lines
5.3 KiB
Python
220 lines
5.3 KiB
Python
"""
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Risk Analytics Report Generator
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================================
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Analyzes trade history and generates professional risk metrics.
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Usage:
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python scripts/generate_risk_report.py
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python scripts/generate_risk_report.py --days 30
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python scripts/generate_risk_report.py --output report.txt
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Author: AI Assistant (Phase 8 - FinceptTerminal Enhancement)
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"""
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import sys
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from pathlib import Path
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# Add project root to path
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project_root = Path(__file__).parent.parent
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sys.path.insert(0, str(project_root))
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import asyncio
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import argparse
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from datetime import datetime, timedelta
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from loguru import logger
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from src.risk_metrics import RiskAnalytics
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from src.mt5_connector import MT5Connector
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from src.config import TradingConfig
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async def fetch_trade_history(days: int = 30):
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"""
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Fetch trade history from MT5.
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Args:
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days: Number of days to look back
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Returns:
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List of trades with profit/loss
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"""
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config = TradingConfig()
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mt5 = MT5Connector(config)
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if not mt5.connect():
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logger.error("Failed to connect to MT5")
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return None
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try:
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# Calculate date range
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to_date = datetime.now()
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from_date = to_date - timedelta(days=days)
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# Fetch history
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deals = mt5.get_deals_history(from_date, to_date)
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if not deals:
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logger.warning(f"No trade history found in last {days} days")
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return None
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# Build equity curve and trade returns
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equity_curve = [config.capital] # Starting capital
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trade_returns = []
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for deal in deals:
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profit = deal.profit
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trade_returns.append(profit)
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equity_curve.append(equity_curve[-1] + profit)
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logger.info(f"Fetched {len(trade_returns)} trades from last {days} days")
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return equity_curve, trade_returns
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finally:
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mt5.disconnect()
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def generate_risk_report(equity_curve, trade_returns, output_file=None):
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"""
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Generate comprehensive risk analytics report.
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Args:
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equity_curve: List of equity values over time
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trade_returns: List of individual trade P&L
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output_file: Optional file to save report
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"""
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if not equity_curve or len(equity_curve) < 2:
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logger.error("Insufficient data for risk analysis")
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return
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# Initialize analytics
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analytics = RiskAnalytics(risk_free_rate=0.04) # 4% US Treasury
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# Calculate comprehensive metrics
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report = analytics.get_comprehensive_report(
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equity_curve=equity_curve,
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trade_returns=trade_returns,
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periods_per_year=252 # Trading days
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)
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if "error" in report:
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logger.error(f"Risk calculation error: {report['error']}")
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return
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# Format report
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report_text = analytics.format_report(report)
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# Additional context
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initial_capital = equity_curve[0]
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final_capital = equity_curve[-1]
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net_profit = final_capital - initial_capital
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header = f"""
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{'=' * 50}
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XAUBOT AI - RISK ANALYTICS REPORT
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{'=' * 50}
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Generated: {datetime.now().strftime('%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S')}
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Period: Last {len(trade_returns)} trades
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Initial Capital: ${initial_capital:,.2f}
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Final Capital: ${final_capital:,.2f}
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Net P&L: ${net_profit:,.2f} ({(net_profit/initial_capital)*100:.2f}%)
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{'=' * 50}
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"""
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full_report = header + report_text
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# Print to console
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print(full_report)
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# Save to file if requested
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if output_file:
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with open(output_file, 'w') as f:
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f.write(full_report)
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logger.info(f"Report saved to {output_file}")
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# Interpretation guide
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interpretation = """
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📖 INTERPRETATION GUIDE
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{'=' * 50}
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Sharpe Ratio:
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< 0 : Strategy is losing vs risk-free rate
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0-1 : Poor risk-adjusted returns
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1-2 : Good risk-adjusted returns
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> 2 : Excellent risk-adjusted returns
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Win Rate:
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< 45% : Low (need high win/loss ratio)
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45-55% : Average
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> 55% : High
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Profit Factor:
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< 1.0 : Losing strategy
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1.0-1.5: Break-even to marginal
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1.5-2.0: Good
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> 2.0 : Excellent
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Max Drawdown:
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< 10% : Very safe
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10-20% : Acceptable
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20-30% : High risk
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> 30% : Dangerous
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Sortino Ratio:
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Like Sharpe but only penalizes downside volatility.
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Higher is better. > 2.0 is excellent.
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Calmar Ratio:
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Return / Max Drawdown
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> 2.0 is good, > 3.0 is excellent
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VaR (Value at Risk):
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95% VaR = Worst expected loss 5% of the time
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99% VaR = Worst expected loss 1% of the time
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CVaR = Average loss when VaR is exceeded
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{'=' * 50}
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"""
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print(interpretation)
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return report
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async def main():
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"""Main entry point."""
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parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(
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description="Generate risk analytics report for XAUBot AI"
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)
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parser.add_argument(
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"--days",
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type=int,
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default=30,
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help="Number of days to analyze (default: 30)"
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)
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parser.add_argument(
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"--output",
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type=str,
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help="Save report to file (optional)"
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)
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args = parser.parse_args()
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logger.info(f"Fetching trade history for last {args.days} days...")
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# Fetch data
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result = await fetch_trade_history(args.days)
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if result is None:
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logger.error("Failed to fetch trade history")
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return
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equity_curve, trade_returns = result
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# Generate report
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logger.info("Generating risk analytics report...")
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generate_risk_report(equity_curve, trade_returns, args.output)
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if __name__ == "__main__":
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asyncio.run(main())
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