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XauBot/backtests/backtest_17_liquidity_sweep.py
GifariKemal e8355b3f62 feat: add 5 dashboard features — dark mode, trade history, backtests, model insights, alerts
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- main_live.py: write model_metrics.json on startup and retrain

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-02-09 05:46:54 +07:00

1495 lines
61 KiB
Python

"""
Backtest #17 — Liquidity Sweep Filter
======================================
Base: SMC-Only v4 (Backtest #1)
Added: Liquidity Sweep as entry filter/enhancer
RTM Theory:
- BSL sweep (buyside liquidity taken) → smart money selling → confirms SELL
- SSL sweep (sellside liquidity taken) → smart money buying → confirms BUY
- Trade only when SMC signal aligns with recent sweep direction
Liquidity Zone Detection:
- Uses rolling std/mean (CV) to find equal-high / equal-low clusters
- BSL: cluster of equal highs (stop losses of shorts)
- SSL: cluster of equal lows (stop losses of longs)
- Sweep: price pierces through level but closes back (rejection)
Modes:
A) FILTER: Only trade when matching sweep detected within lookback
B) BOOST: Trade normally, but allow wider tolerance & lower CV when sweep matches
Usage:
python backtests/backtest_17_liquidity_sweep.py
"""
import polars as pl
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
from datetime import datetime, timedelta, date
from typing import Dict, List, Tuple, Optional
from dataclasses import dataclass, field
from enum import Enum
import sys
import os
from zoneinfo import ZoneInfo
from openpyxl import Workbook
from openpyxl.styles import Font, Alignment, PatternFill, Border, Side
from openpyxl.chart import LineChart, Reference
from openpyxl.utils import get_column_letter
sys.path.insert(0, os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))))
from src.mt5_connector import MT5Connector
from src.smc_polars import SMCAnalyzer, SMCSignal
from src.feature_eng import FeatureEngineer
from src.regime_detector import MarketRegimeDetector, MarketRegime
from src.ml_model import TradingModel
from src.config import get_config
from src.dynamic_confidence import DynamicConfidenceManager, create_dynamic_confidence, MarketQuality
from loguru import logger
logger.remove()
logger.add(sys.stderr, level="WARNING")
WIB = ZoneInfo("Asia/Jakarta")
# ─── Enums & Dataclasses ──────────────────────────────────────
class TradeResult(Enum):
WIN = "WIN"
LOSS = "LOSS"
BREAKEVEN = "BREAKEVEN"
class ExitReason(Enum):
TAKE_PROFIT = "take_profit"
SMART_TP = "smart_tp"
PEAK_PROTECT = "peak_protect"
EARLY_EXIT = "early_exit"
EARLY_CUT = "early_cut"
MAX_LOSS = "max_loss"
STALL = "stall"
TREND_REVERSAL = "trend_reversal"
TIMEOUT = "timeout"
WEEKEND_CLOSE = "weekend_close"
TRAILING_SL = "trailing_sl"
BREAKEVEN_EXIT = "breakeven_exit"
DAILY_LIMIT = "daily_limit"
REGIME_DANGER = "regime_danger"
MARKET_SIGNAL = "market_signal"
class TradingMode(Enum):
NORMAL = "normal"
RECOVERY = "recovery"
PROTECTED = "protected"
STOPPED = "stopped"
@dataclass
class SimulatedTrade:
ticket: int
entry_time: datetime
exit_time: datetime
direction: str
entry_price: float
exit_price: float
stop_loss: float
take_profit: float
lot_size: float
profit_usd: float
profit_pips: float
result: TradeResult
exit_reason: ExitReason
smc_confidence: float
regime: str
session: str
signal_reason: str
has_bos: bool = False
has_choch: bool = False
has_fvg: bool = False
has_ob: bool = False
atr_at_entry: float = 0.0
rr_ratio: float = 0.0
trading_mode: str = "normal"
sweep_type: str = "" # "BSL", "SSL", or ""
entry_source: str = "SMC" # "SMC" (normal) or "SWEEP+SMC" (sweep confirmed)
@dataclass
class BacktestStats:
total_trades: int = 0
wins: int = 0
losses: int = 0
total_profit: float = 0.0
total_loss: float = 0.0
max_drawdown: float = 0.0
max_drawdown_usd: float = 0.0
win_rate: float = 0.0
profit_factor: float = 0.0
avg_win: float = 0.0
avg_loss: float = 0.0
avg_trade: float = 0.0
expectancy: float = 0.0
sharpe_ratio: float = 0.0
trades: List[SimulatedTrade] = field(default_factory=list)
equity_curve: List[float] = field(default_factory=list)
avoided_signals: int = 0
daily_limit_stops: int = 0
recovery_mode_trades: int = 0
# Liquidity sweep stats
sweep_confirmed_trades: int = 0
sweep_blocked_trades: int = 0
bsl_sweeps_detected: int = 0
ssl_sweeps_detected: int = 0
# ─── Liquidity Sweep Calculator ───────────────────────────────
def calculate_liquidity_zones_multi(
df: pl.DataFrame,
cv_thresholds: List[float] = [0.001, 0.002, 0.003],
window_size: int = 20,
) -> pl.DataFrame:
"""
Calculate liquidity zones with multiple CV thresholds.
Returns columns:
- bsl_level, ssl_level: Using tightest threshold (0.001)
- liquidity_sweep: "BSL" or "SSL" using tightest
- liq_sweep_relaxed: "BSL" or "SSL" using most relaxed threshold
- For each threshold: bsl_{t}, ssl_{t}, sweep_{t}
"""
# Rolling stats
df = df.with_columns([
pl.col("high").rolling_std(window_size=window_size).alias("_high_std"),
pl.col("low").rolling_std(window_size=window_size).alias("_low_std"),
pl.col("high").rolling_mean(window_size=window_size).alias("_high_mean"),
pl.col("low").rolling_mean(window_size=window_size).alias("_low_mean"),
])
sweep_cols = []
for cv_t in cv_thresholds:
suffix = f"_{int(cv_t * 10000)}" # e.g., _10, _20, _30
# Detect clusters at this threshold
df = df.with_columns([
pl.when(
(pl.col("_high_std") / pl.col("_high_mean")) < cv_t
).then(pl.col("high")).otherwise(None).alias(f"bsl{suffix}"),
pl.when(
(pl.col("_low_std") / pl.col("_low_mean")) < cv_t
).then(pl.col("low")).otherwise(None).alias(f"ssl{suffix}"),
])
# Forward fill
df = df.with_columns([
pl.col(f"bsl{suffix}").forward_fill().alias(f"_bsl_ff{suffix}"),
pl.col(f"ssl{suffix}").forward_fill().alias(f"_ssl_ff{suffix}"),
])
# Detect sweeps
df = df.with_columns([
pl.when(
(pl.col("high") > pl.col(f"_bsl_ff{suffix}").shift(1)) &
(pl.col("close") < pl.col(f"_bsl_ff{suffix}").shift(1))
).then(pl.lit("BSL"))
.when(
(pl.col("low") < pl.col(f"_ssl_ff{suffix}").shift(1)) &
(pl.col("close") > pl.col(f"_ssl_ff{suffix}").shift(1))
).then(pl.lit("SSL"))
.otherwise(None)
.alias(f"sweep{suffix}"),
])
sweep_cols.append(f"sweep{suffix}")
# Cleanup per-threshold temp cols
df = df.drop([f"_bsl_ff{suffix}", f"_ssl_ff{suffix}"])
# Primary sweep = tightest threshold
primary_suffix = f"_{int(cv_thresholds[0] * 10000)}"
relaxed_suffix = f"_{int(cv_thresholds[-1] * 10000)}"
df = df.with_columns([
pl.col(f"sweep{primary_suffix}").alias("liquidity_sweep"),
pl.col(f"sweep{relaxed_suffix}").alias("liq_sweep_relaxed"),
])
# Cleanup
df = df.drop(["_high_std", "_low_std", "_high_mean", "_low_mean"])
return df
# ─── Liquidity Sweep Backtest ─────────────────────────────────
class LiquiditySweepBacktest:
"""SMC-Only + Liquidity Sweep filter."""
def __init__(
self,
capital: float = 5000.0,
max_daily_loss_percent: float = 5.0,
max_loss_per_trade_percent: float = 1.0,
base_lot_size: float = 0.01,
max_lot_size: float = 0.02,
recovery_lot_size: float = 0.01,
trend_reversal_threshold: float = 0.75,
max_concurrent_positions: int = 2,
breakeven_pips: float = 30.0,
trail_start_pips: float = 50.0,
trail_step_pips: float = 30.0,
min_profit_to_protect: float = 5.0,
max_drawdown_from_peak: float = 50.0,
trade_cooldown_bars: int = 10,
trend_reversal_mult: float = 0.6,
# Liquidity Sweep params
sweep_lookback: int = 15, # How many bars back to check for sweep
sweep_mode: str = "filter", # "filter" = block without sweep, "boost" = enhance
use_relaxed_cv: bool = True, # Use relaxed CV (0.003) instead of tight (0.001)
):
self.capital = capital
self.max_daily_loss_usd = capital * (max_daily_loss_percent / 100)
self.max_loss_per_trade = capital * (max_loss_per_trade_percent / 100)
self.base_lot_size = base_lot_size
self.max_lot_size = max_lot_size
self.recovery_lot_size = recovery_lot_size
self.trend_reversal_threshold = trend_reversal_threshold
self.max_concurrent_positions = max_concurrent_positions
self.breakeven_pips = breakeven_pips
self.trail_start_pips = trail_start_pips
self.trail_step_pips = trail_step_pips
self.min_profit_to_protect = min_profit_to_protect
self.max_drawdown_from_peak = max_drawdown_from_peak
self.trade_cooldown_bars = trade_cooldown_bars
self.trend_reversal_mult = trend_reversal_mult
# Sweep params
self.sweep_lookback = sweep_lookback
self.sweep_mode = sweep_mode
self.use_relaxed_cv = use_relaxed_cv
config = get_config()
self.smc = SMCAnalyzer(
swing_length=config.smc.swing_length,
ob_lookback=config.smc.ob_lookback,
)
self.features = FeatureEngineer()
self.dynamic_confidence = create_dynamic_confidence()
self.ml_model = TradingModel(model_path="models/xgboost_model.pkl")
try:
self.ml_model.load()
print(" ML model loaded (for exit evaluation)")
except Exception:
print(" [WARN] ML model not loaded — exit ML checks disabled")
self.regime_detector = MarketRegimeDetector(model_path="models/hmm_regime.pkl")
try:
self.regime_detector.load()
except Exception:
print(" [WARN] HMM model not loaded")
self._ticket_counter = 2170000
# ── Session filter (synced) ──
def _get_session_from_time(self, dt: datetime) -> Tuple[str, bool, float]:
if dt.tzinfo is None:
dt = dt.replace(tzinfo=ZoneInfo("UTC"))
wib_time = dt.astimezone(WIB)
hour = wib_time.hour
if 6 <= hour < 15:
return "Sydney-Tokyo", True, 0.5
elif 15 <= hour < 16:
return "Tokyo-London Overlap", True, 0.75
elif 16 <= hour < 19:
return "London Early", True, 0.8
elif 19 <= hour < 24:
return "London-NY Overlap (Golden)", True, 1.0
elif 0 <= hour < 4:
return "NY Session", True, 0.9
else:
return "Off Hours", False, 0.0
def _is_near_weekend_close(self, dt: datetime) -> bool:
if dt.tzinfo is None:
dt = dt.replace(tzinfo=ZoneInfo("UTC"))
wib = dt.astimezone(WIB)
if wib.weekday() == 5 and wib.hour >= 4 and wib.minute >= 30:
return True
return False
# ── Lot sizing (synced) ──
def _calculate_lot_size(self, confidence, regime, trading_mode, session_mult):
if trading_mode == TradingMode.STOPPED:
return 0
lot = self.base_lot_size
if trading_mode in (TradingMode.RECOVERY, TradingMode.PROTECTED):
lot = self.recovery_lot_size
else:
if confidence >= 0.65:
lot = self.max_lot_size
elif confidence >= 0.55:
lot = self.base_lot_size
else:
lot = self.recovery_lot_size
if regime.lower() in ["high_volatility", "crisis"]:
lot = self.recovery_lot_size
lot = max(0.01, lot * session_mult)
return round(lot, 2)
# ── Check for recent liquidity sweep ──
def _check_recent_sweep(
self,
df: pl.DataFrame,
current_idx: int,
direction: str,
) -> Tuple[bool, str]:
"""
Check if there's a recent liquidity sweep that confirms the trade direction.
BSL sweep → confirms SELL (buyside stops hunted → smart money selling)
SSL sweep → confirms BUY (sellside stops hunted → smart money buying)
Returns: (sweep_found, sweep_type)
"""
sweep_col = "liq_sweep_relaxed" if self.use_relaxed_cv else "liquidity_sweep"
if sweep_col not in df.columns:
return False, ""
start_idx = max(0, current_idx - self.sweep_lookback)
sweeps = df[sweep_col].to_list()
for j in range(start_idx, current_idx):
sweep_val = sweeps[j]
if sweep_val is None:
continue
# BSL sweep → SELL confirmation
if direction == "SELL" and sweep_val == "BSL":
return True, "BSL"
# SSL sweep → BUY confirmation
if direction == "BUY" and sweep_val == "SSL":
return True, "SSL"
return False, ""
def _hours_to_golden(self, dt: datetime) -> float:
"""Hours until golden time (19:00 WIB). Returns 0 if already in golden."""
if dt.tzinfo is None:
dt = dt.replace(tzinfo=ZoneInfo("UTC"))
wib = dt.astimezone(WIB)
if 19 <= wib.hour < 24:
return 0
target = wib.replace(hour=19, minute=0, second=0, microsecond=0)
if wib.hour >= 19:
target += timedelta(days=1)
return max(0, (target - wib).total_seconds() / 3600)
# ── Full exit simulation (all 3 systems — synced with #1) ──
def _simulate_trade_exit(
self,
df: pl.DataFrame,
entry_idx: int,
direction: str,
entry_price: float,
take_profit: float,
stop_loss: float,
lot_size: float,
daily_loss_so_far: float,
feature_cols: list,
max_bars: int = 100,
) -> Tuple[float, float, ExitReason, int, float]:
"""
Simulate trade exit with ALL 3 exit systems synced with main_live.py:
A) SmartPositionManager (breakeven, trailing, peak protect, market signal)
B) SmartRiskManager (smart TP, early cut, stall, daily limit, reversal)
C) Time/Trend exit (4h/6h/8h timeout, ATR momentum)
"""
pip_value = 10 # XAUUSD: 1 pip = $10 per lot
highs = df["high"].to_list()
lows = df["low"].to_list()
closes = df["close"].to_list()
times = df["time"].to_list()
# ATR at entry
atr = 12.0
if "atr" in df.columns:
atr_list = df["atr"].to_list()
if entry_idx < len(atr_list) and atr_list[entry_idx] is not None:
atr = atr_list[entry_idx]
reversal_momentum_threshold = atr * self.trend_reversal_mult
min_loss_for_reversal_exit = atr * 0.8
# ── State tracking (simulating SmartRiskManager PositionGuard) ──
profit_history = []
price_history = []
peak_profit = 0.0
stall_count = 0
reversal_warnings = 0
# SmartPositionManager state
current_sl = stop_loss # broker SL (mutable via trailing)
breakeven_moved = False
# Target TP profit for probability estimation
if direction == "BUY":
target_tp_profit = (take_profit - entry_price) / 0.1 * pip_value * lot_size
else:
target_tp_profit = (entry_price - take_profit) / 0.1 * pip_value * lot_size
# ML prediction cache (evaluate every 4 bars like live)
cached_ml_signal = ""
cached_ml_confidence = 0.5
for i in range(entry_idx + 1, min(entry_idx + max_bars, len(df))):
high = highs[i]
low = lows[i]
close = closes[i]
current_time = times[i]
# Current P/L
if direction == "BUY":
current_pips = (close - entry_price) / 0.1
pip_profit_from_entry = (close - entry_price) / 0.1
else:
current_pips = (entry_price - close) / 0.1
pip_profit_from_entry = (entry_price - close) / 0.1
current_profit = current_pips * pip_value * lot_size
# Track history
profit_history.append(current_profit)
price_history.append(close)
if current_profit > peak_profit:
peak_profit = current_profit
bars_since_entry = i - entry_idx
# ── ML prediction (every 4 bars, synced with live) ──
if bars_since_entry % 4 == 0 and self.ml_model.fitted:
try:
df_slice = df.head(i + 1)
ml_pred = self.ml_model.predict(df_slice, feature_cols)
cached_ml_signal = ml_pred.signal
cached_ml_confidence = ml_pred.confidence
except Exception:
pass
# ── Momentum calculation (synced with PositionGuard.calculate_momentum) ──
momentum = 0.0
if len(profit_history) >= 3:
recent = profit_history[-5:] if len(profit_history) >= 5 else profit_history
profit_change = recent[-1] - recent[0]
momentum = max(-100, min(100, (profit_change / 10) * 50))
profit_growing = momentum > 0
# ════════════════════════════════════════════════
# A) SmartPositionManager checks (every bar)
# ════════════════════════════════════════════════
# A.0 TP hit by price action (high/low)
if direction == "BUY" and high >= take_profit:
pips = (take_profit - entry_price) / 0.1
profit = pips * pip_value * lot_size
return profit, pips, ExitReason.TAKE_PROFIT, i, take_profit
elif direction == "SELL" and low <= take_profit:
pips = (entry_price - take_profit) / 0.1
profit = pips * pip_value * lot_size
return profit, pips, ExitReason.TAKE_PROFIT, i, take_profit
# A.0b Trailing SL hit check
if breakeven_moved and current_sl > 0:
if direction == "BUY" and low <= current_sl:
pips = (current_sl - entry_price) / 0.1
profit = pips * pip_value * lot_size
reason = ExitReason.TRAILING_SL if pip_profit_from_entry >= self.trail_start_pips else ExitReason.BREAKEVEN_EXIT
return profit, pips, reason, i, current_sl
elif direction == "SELL" and high >= current_sl:
pips = (entry_price - current_sl) / 0.1
profit = pips * pip_value * lot_size
reason = ExitReason.TRAILING_SL if pip_profit_from_entry >= self.trail_start_pips else ExitReason.BREAKEVEN_EXIT
return profit, pips, reason, i, current_sl
# A.1 Breakeven move (after 30 pips / $3 profit)
if pip_profit_from_entry >= self.breakeven_pips and not breakeven_moved:
if direction == "BUY":
current_sl = entry_price + 2 # 2 points buffer
else:
current_sl = entry_price - 2
breakeven_moved = True
# A.2 Trailing SL (after 50 pips / $5 profit)
if pip_profit_from_entry >= self.trail_start_pips:
trail_distance = self.trail_step_pips * 0.1
if direction == "BUY":
new_trail_sl = close - trail_distance
if new_trail_sl > current_sl:
current_sl = new_trail_sl
else:
new_trail_sl = close + trail_distance
if current_sl == 0 or new_trail_sl < current_sl:
current_sl = new_trail_sl
# A.3 Peak profit drawdown protection (50% drawdown from peak for $5+ profit)
if peak_profit > self.min_profit_to_protect:
drawdown_pct = ((peak_profit - current_profit) / peak_profit) * 100 if peak_profit > 0 else 0
if drawdown_pct > self.max_drawdown_from_peak:
return current_profit, current_pips, ExitReason.PEAK_PROTECT, i, close
# A.4 Market analysis: trend + momentum + RSI (synced with position_manager)
if bars_since_entry % 5 == 0 and bars_since_entry >= 5:
# Trend analysis (5-bar vs 20-bar MA)
if i >= 20:
ma_fast = np.mean(closes[i-4:i+1])
ma_slow = np.mean(closes[i-19:i+1])
trend = "NEUTRAL"
if ma_fast > ma_slow * 1.001:
trend = "BULLISH"
elif ma_fast < ma_slow * 0.999:
trend = "BEARISH"
# ROC momentum
roc = (closes[i] / closes[max(0,i-4)] - 1) * 100
mom_dir = "BULLISH" if roc > 0.3 else ("BEARISH" if roc < -0.3 else "NEUTRAL")
# RSI check
rsi_val = None
if "rsi" in df.columns:
rsi_list = df["rsi"].to_list()
if i < len(rsi_list):
rsi_val = rsi_list[i]
urgency = 0
should_exit = False
# Strong ML opposite signal
if cached_ml_confidence > 0.75:
if direction == "BUY" and cached_ml_signal == "SELL":
should_exit = True
urgency += 2
elif direction == "SELL" and cached_ml_signal == "BUY":
should_exit = True
urgency += 2
# RSI extremes
if rsi_val:
if rsi_val > 75 and direction == "BUY":
should_exit = True
urgency += 2
elif rsi_val < 25 and direction == "SELL":
should_exit = True
urgency += 2
# Trend + momentum reversal
if direction == "BUY" and trend == "BEARISH" and mom_dir == "BEARISH":
should_exit = True
urgency += 3
elif direction == "SELL" and trend == "BULLISH" and mom_dir == "BULLISH":
should_exit = True
urgency += 3
# Close on strong opposite signal with profit (synced)
if should_exit and current_profit > self.min_profit_to_protect / 2:
return current_profit, current_pips, ExitReason.MARKET_SIGNAL, i, close
# High urgency with any profit
if urgency >= 7 and current_profit > 0:
return current_profit, current_pips, ExitReason.MARKET_SIGNAL, i, close
# A.5 Weekend close check
if self._is_near_weekend_close(current_time):
if current_profit > 0:
return current_profit, current_pips, ExitReason.WEEKEND_CLOSE, i, close
elif current_profit > -10:
return current_profit, current_pips, ExitReason.WEEKEND_CLOSE, i, close
# ════════════════════════════════════════════════
# B) SmartRiskManager checks
# ════════════════════════════════════════════════
# B.1 Smart TP ($15+ with momentum analysis — synced evaluate_position CHECK 1)
if current_profit >= 15:
# Hard TP at $40
if current_profit >= 40:
return current_profit, current_pips, ExitReason.SMART_TP, i, close
# Momentum-based TP: profit $25+ but momentum dropping
if current_profit >= 25 and momentum < -30:
return current_profit, current_pips, ExitReason.SMART_TP, i, close
# Peak protection: profit turun ke 60% dari peak
if peak_profit > 30 and current_profit < peak_profit * 0.6:
return current_profit, current_pips, ExitReason.PEAK_PROTECT, i, close
# Low TP probability: profit $20+ tapi kemungkinan TP rendah
if current_profit >= 20:
# Simplified TP probability (synced with PositionGuard.get_tp_probability)
progress = (current_profit / target_tp_profit) * 100 if target_tp_profit > 0 else 0
progress_score = min(40, max(0, progress * 0.4))
momentum_score = ((momentum + 100) / 200) * 30
time_penalty = min(10, bars_since_entry / 4 * 2) # 2 points per hour
tp_probability = progress_score + momentum_score + 10 - time_penalty
if tp_probability < 25:
return current_profit, current_pips, ExitReason.SMART_TP, i, close
# B.2 Smart Early Exit ($5-15 profit + reversal, synced CHECK 2)
if 5 <= current_profit < 15:
if momentum < -50 and cached_ml_confidence >= 0.65:
is_reversal = (
(direction == "BUY" and cached_ml_signal == "SELL") or
(direction == "SELL" and cached_ml_signal == "BUY")
)
if is_reversal:
return current_profit, current_pips, ExitReason.EARLY_EXIT, i, close
# B.3 Early cut: loss significant + momentum negative (synced CHECK 3)
if current_profit < 0:
loss_percent_of_max = abs(current_profit) / self.max_loss_per_trade * 100
if momentum < -30 and loss_percent_of_max >= 30:
return current_profit, current_pips, ExitReason.EARLY_CUT, i, close
# B.4 Trend Reversal: ML 75%+ opposite (synced CHECK 4)
is_ml_reversal = False
if direction == "BUY" and cached_ml_signal == "SELL" and cached_ml_confidence >= self.trend_reversal_threshold:
is_ml_reversal = True
reversal_warnings += 1
elif direction == "SELL" and cached_ml_signal == "BUY" and cached_ml_confidence >= self.trend_reversal_threshold:
is_ml_reversal = True
reversal_warnings += 1
loss_moderate = abs(current_profit) > (self.max_loss_per_trade * 0.4)
if is_ml_reversal and current_profit < -8 and loss_moderate:
return current_profit, current_pips, ExitReason.TREND_REVERSAL, i, close
if reversal_warnings >= 3 and current_profit < -10:
return current_profit, current_pips, ExitReason.TREND_REVERSAL, i, close
# B.5 Max loss per trade — 50% of max (synced CHECK 5)
if current_profit <= -(self.max_loss_per_trade * 0.50):
# Last chance hold if golden time very close (synced)
htg = self._hours_to_golden(current_time)
if htg <= 1 and htg > 0 and momentum > -40:
pass # Hold — last chance for recovery
else:
return current_profit, current_pips, ExitReason.MAX_LOSS, i, close
# B.6 Stall detection (synced CHECK 5b)
if len(profit_history) >= 10:
recent_range = max(profit_history[-10:]) - min(profit_history[-10:])
if recent_range < 3 and current_profit < -15:
stall_count += 1
if stall_count >= 5:
return current_profit, current_pips, ExitReason.STALL, i, close
# B.7 Daily loss limit (synced CHECK 6)
potential_daily_loss = daily_loss_so_far + abs(min(0, current_profit))
if potential_daily_loss >= self.max_daily_loss_usd:
return current_profit, current_pips, ExitReason.DAILY_LIMIT, i, close
# ════════════════════════════════════════════════
# C) Time-based exit (synced CHECK 8)
# ════════════════════════════════════════════════
# Check ML agreement for timeout decision
ml_agrees = (
(direction == "BUY" and cached_ml_signal == "BUY") or
(direction == "SELL" and cached_ml_signal == "SELL")
)
# 4+ hours: exit if stuck (synced)
if bars_since_entry >= 16:
if current_profit < 5 and not profit_growing:
if current_profit >= 0:
return current_profit, current_pips, ExitReason.TIMEOUT, i, close
elif current_profit > -15:
return current_profit, current_pips, ExitReason.TIMEOUT, i, close
# 6+ hours: exit unless significantly profitable AND growing (synced)
if bars_since_entry >= 24:
if current_profit < 10 or not profit_growing:
return current_profit, current_pips, ExitReason.TIMEOUT, i, close
# 8+ hours: hard max (synced)
if bars_since_entry >= 32:
return current_profit, current_pips, ExitReason.TIMEOUT, i, close
# C.2 ATR trend reversal (synced with original backtest)
if bars_since_entry > 10:
recent_closes = closes[i-5:i+1]
mom = recent_closes[-1] - recent_closes[0]
if direction == "BUY" and mom < -reversal_momentum_threshold:
if current_profit < -min_loss_for_reversal_exit:
return current_profit, current_pips, ExitReason.TREND_REVERSAL, i, close
elif direction == "SELL" and mom > reversal_momentum_threshold:
if current_profit < -min_loss_for_reversal_exit:
return current_profit, current_pips, ExitReason.TREND_REVERSAL, i, close
# End of data — close at last price
final_idx = min(entry_idx + max_bars - 1, len(df) - 1)
final_price = closes[final_idx]
if direction == "BUY":
pips = (final_price - entry_price) / 0.1
else:
pips = (entry_price - final_price) / 0.1
profit = pips * pip_value * lot_size
return profit, pips, ExitReason.TIMEOUT, final_idx, final_price
# ── Main run ──
def run(
self,
df: pl.DataFrame,
start_date: Optional[datetime] = None,
end_date: Optional[datetime] = None,
initial_capital: float = 5000.0,
) -> BacktestStats:
stats = BacktestStats()
capital = initial_capital
peak_capital = initial_capital
stats.equity_curve.append(capital)
daily_loss = 0.0
daily_profit = 0.0
daily_trades = 0
consecutive_losses = 0
trading_mode = TradingMode.NORMAL
current_date = None
feature_cols = []
if self.ml_model.fitted and self.ml_model.feature_names:
feature_cols = [f for f in self.ml_model.feature_names if f in df.columns]
# Pre-extract sweep data for fast lookup
sweep_col = "liq_sweep_relaxed" if self.use_relaxed_cv else "liquidity_sweep"
has_sweep_data = sweep_col in df.columns
if has_sweep_data:
sweep_list = df[sweep_col].to_list()
else:
sweep_list = [None] * len(df)
times = df["time"].to_list()
start_idx = next((i for i, t in enumerate(times) if t >= start_date), 100) if start_date else 100
end_idx = next((i for i, t in enumerate(times) if t > end_date), len(df) - 100) if end_date else len(df) - 100
last_trade_idx = -self.trade_cooldown_bars * 2
# Count total sweeps in range for stats
for i in range(start_idx, end_idx):
sv = sweep_list[i]
if sv == "BSL":
stats.bsl_sweeps_detected += 1
elif sv == "SSL":
stats.ssl_sweeps_detected += 1
mode_label = "FILTER" if self.sweep_mode == "filter" else "BOOST"
cv_label = "relaxed (CV<0.003)" if self.use_relaxed_cv else "tight (CV<0.001)"
print(f"\n Running SMC + Liquidity Sweep ({mode_label}) backtest...")
print(f" Sweep detection: {cv_label}")
print(f" Sweep lookback: {self.sweep_lookback} bars")
print(f" BSL sweeps in range: {stats.bsl_sweeps_detected}")
print(f" SSL sweeps in range: {stats.ssl_sweeps_detected}")
print(f" Date range: {times[start_idx]} to {times[end_idx - 1]}")
print(f" Total bars: {end_idx - start_idx}")
for i in range(start_idx, end_idx):
if i - last_trade_idx < self.trade_cooldown_bars:
continue
current_time = times[i]
# Daily reset
trade_date = current_time.date() if hasattr(current_time, 'date') else current_time
if current_date is None or trade_date != current_date:
daily_loss = 0.0
daily_profit = 0.0
daily_trades = 0
current_date = trade_date
if consecutive_losses < 2:
trading_mode = TradingMode.NORMAL
if trading_mode == TradingMode.STOPPED:
continue
session_name, can_trade, lot_mult = self._get_session_from_time(current_time)
if not can_trade:
continue
if hasattr(current_time, 'weekday') and current_time.weekday() >= 5:
continue
df_slice = df.head(i + 1)
# Regime check
regime = "normal"
try:
if self.regime_detector.fitted:
regime_state = self.regime_detector.get_current_state(df_slice)
if regime_state:
regime = regime_state.regime.value
if regime_state.regime == MarketRegime.CRISIS:
continue
if regime_state.recommendation == "SLEEP":
continue
except Exception:
pass
# Dynamic confidence AVOID filter
try:
ml_signal = ""
ml_confidence = 0.5
if self.ml_model.fitted and feature_cols:
ml_pred = self.ml_model.predict(df_slice, feature_cols)
ml_signal = ml_pred.signal
ml_confidence = ml_pred.confidence
market_analysis = self.dynamic_confidence.analyze_market(
session=session_name,
regime=regime,
volatility="medium",
trend_direction=regime,
has_smc_signal=True,
ml_signal=ml_signal,
ml_confidence=ml_confidence,
)
if market_analysis.quality == MarketQuality.AVOID:
stats.avoided_signals += 1
continue
except Exception:
pass
# SMC signal
try:
smc_signal = self.smc.generate_signal(df_slice)
except Exception:
continue
if smc_signal is None:
continue
# ═══ LIQUIDITY SWEEP CHECK ═══
sweep_found = False
sweep_type = ""
# Check for recent sweep within lookback window
check_start = max(0, i - self.sweep_lookback)
for j in range(check_start, i):
sv = sweep_list[j]
if sv is None:
continue
# BSL sweep → SELL confirmation
if smc_signal.signal_type == "SELL" and sv == "BSL":
sweep_found = True
sweep_type = "BSL"
break
# SSL sweep → BUY confirmation
if smc_signal.signal_type == "BUY" and sv == "SSL":
sweep_found = True
sweep_type = "SSL"
break
# Apply sweep mode
if self.sweep_mode == "filter" and not sweep_found:
stats.sweep_blocked_trades += 1
continue
if sweep_found:
stats.sweep_confirmed_trades += 1
# SMC details
recent_df = df_slice.tail(10)
recent_bos = recent_df["bos"].to_list() if "bos" in df_slice.columns else []
recent_choch = recent_df["choch"].to_list() if "choch" in df_slice.columns else []
recent_fvg_bull = recent_df["is_fvg_bull"].to_list() if "is_fvg_bull" in df_slice.columns else []
recent_fvg_bear = recent_df["is_fvg_bear"].to_list() if "is_fvg_bear" in df_slice.columns else []
recent_obs = recent_df["ob"].to_list() if "ob" in df_slice.columns else []
has_bos = 1 in recent_bos or -1 in recent_bos
has_choch = 1 in recent_choch or -1 in recent_choch
has_fvg = any(recent_fvg_bull) or any(recent_fvg_bear)
has_ob = 1 in recent_obs or -1 in recent_obs
atr_at_entry = 12.0
if "atr" in df_slice.columns:
atr_val = df_slice.tail(1)["atr"].item()
if atr_val is not None and atr_val > 0:
atr_at_entry = atr_val
# Confidence
confidence = smc_signal.confidence
ml_agrees = (
(smc_signal.signal_type == "BUY" and ml_signal == "BUY") or
(smc_signal.signal_type == "SELL" and ml_signal == "SELL")
)
if ml_agrees:
confidence = (smc_signal.confidence + ml_confidence) / 2
if regime == "high_volatility":
confidence *= 0.9
# Lot size
lot_size = self._calculate_lot_size(confidence, regime, trading_mode, lot_mult)
if lot_size <= 0:
continue
if trading_mode == TradingMode.RECOVERY:
stats.recovery_mode_trades += 1
# Execute trade
entry_price = smc_signal.entry_price
take_profit_price = smc_signal.take_profit
stop_loss_price = smc_signal.stop_loss
risk = abs(entry_price - stop_loss_price)
rr = abs(take_profit_price - entry_price) / risk if risk > 0 else 0
profit, pips, exit_reason, exit_idx, exit_price = self._simulate_trade_exit(
df=df,
entry_idx=i,
direction=smc_signal.signal_type,
entry_price=entry_price,
take_profit=take_profit_price,
stop_loss=stop_loss_price,
lot_size=lot_size,
daily_loss_so_far=daily_loss,
feature_cols=feature_cols,
)
self._ticket_counter += 1
result = TradeResult.WIN if profit > 0 else (TradeResult.LOSS if profit < 0 else TradeResult.BREAKEVEN)
trade = SimulatedTrade(
ticket=self._ticket_counter,
entry_time=current_time,
exit_time=times[exit_idx] if exit_idx < len(times) else times[-1],
direction=smc_signal.signal_type,
entry_price=entry_price,
exit_price=exit_price,
stop_loss=stop_loss_price,
take_profit=take_profit_price,
lot_size=lot_size,
profit_usd=profit,
profit_pips=pips,
result=result,
exit_reason=exit_reason,
smc_confidence=confidence,
regime=regime,
session=session_name,
signal_reason=smc_signal.reason,
has_bos=has_bos,
has_choch=has_choch,
has_fvg=has_fvg,
has_ob=has_ob,
atr_at_entry=atr_at_entry,
rr_ratio=rr,
trading_mode=trading_mode.value,
sweep_type=sweep_type,
entry_source="SWEEP+SMC" if sweep_found else "SMC",
)
stats.trades.append(trade)
# Update state
stats.total_trades += 1
daily_trades += 1
capital += profit
if profit > 0:
stats.wins += 1
stats.total_profit += profit
daily_profit += profit
consecutive_losses = 0
if trading_mode == TradingMode.RECOVERY:
trading_mode = TradingMode.NORMAL
else:
stats.losses += 1
stats.total_loss += abs(profit)
daily_loss += abs(profit)
consecutive_losses += 1
if daily_loss >= self.max_daily_loss_usd:
trading_mode = TradingMode.STOPPED
stats.daily_limit_stops += 1
elif consecutive_losses >= 3 or daily_loss >= self.max_daily_loss_usd * 0.6:
trading_mode = TradingMode.PROTECTED
elif consecutive_losses >= 2:
trading_mode = TradingMode.RECOVERY
if capital > peak_capital:
peak_capital = capital
drawdown_pct = (peak_capital - capital) / peak_capital * 100
drawdown_usd = peak_capital - capital
if drawdown_pct > stats.max_drawdown:
stats.max_drawdown = drawdown_pct
stats.max_drawdown_usd = drawdown_usd
stats.equity_curve.append(capital)
last_trade_idx = exit_idx
if stats.total_trades % 100 == 0:
print(f" {stats.total_trades} trades processed...")
# Final statistics
if stats.total_trades > 0:
stats.win_rate = stats.wins / stats.total_trades * 100
stats.avg_win = stats.total_profit / stats.wins if stats.wins > 0 else 0
stats.avg_loss = stats.total_loss / stats.losses if stats.losses > 0 else 0
stats.avg_trade = (stats.total_profit - stats.total_loss) / stats.total_trades
stats.profit_factor = stats.total_profit / stats.total_loss if stats.total_loss > 0 else float("inf")
win_prob = stats.wins / stats.total_trades
loss_prob = stats.losses / stats.total_trades
stats.expectancy = (win_prob * stats.avg_win) - (loss_prob * stats.avg_loss)
returns = [t.profit_usd for t in stats.trades]
if len(returns) > 1:
avg_return = np.mean(returns)
std_return = np.std(returns)
stats.sharpe_ratio = (avg_return / std_return) * np.sqrt(252) if std_return > 0 else 0
return stats
# ─── XLSX Report ───────────────────────────────────────────────
def generate_xlsx_report(stats: BacktestStats, filepath: str, start_date, end_date, sweep_mode, use_relaxed, lookback):
wb = Workbook()
header_font = Font(name="Calibri", bold=True, size=12, color="FFFFFF")
header_fill = PatternFill(start_color="1F4E79", end_color="1F4E79", fill_type="solid")
subheader_font = Font(name="Calibri", bold=True, size=10)
subheader_fill = PatternFill(start_color="D6E4F0", end_color="D6E4F0", fill_type="solid")
win_fill = PatternFill(start_color="C6EFCE", end_color="C6EFCE", fill_type="solid")
loss_fill = PatternFill(start_color="FFC7CE", end_color="FFC7CE", fill_type="solid")
border = Border(left=Side(style="thin"), right=Side(style="thin"), top=Side(style="thin"), bottom=Side(style="thin"))
net_pnl = stats.total_profit - stats.total_loss
ws = wb.active
ws.title = "Summary"
ws.sheet_properties.tabColor = "1F4E79"
ws.merge_cells("A1:F1")
ws["A1"] = "XAUBot AI — #17 Liquidity Sweep Backtest"
ws["A1"].font = Font(name="Calibri", bold=True, size=16, color="1F4E79")
ws["A2"] = f"Period: {start_date.strftime('%Y-%m-%d')} to {end_date.strftime('%Y-%m-%d')}"
ws["A3"] = f"Mode: {sweep_mode.upper()} | CV: {'relaxed' if use_relaxed else 'tight'} | Lookback: {lookback}"
summary_data = [
("Performance Metrics", "", True),
("Total Trades", stats.total_trades, False),
("Wins", stats.wins, False),
("Losses", stats.losses, False),
("Win Rate", f"{stats.win_rate:.1f}%", False),
("Avoided (AVOID)", stats.avoided_signals, False),
("", "", False),
("Profit - Loss", "", True),
("Total Profit", f"${stats.total_profit:,.2f}", False),
("Total Loss", f"${stats.total_loss:,.2f}", False),
("Net PnL", f"${net_pnl:,.2f}", False),
("Profit Factor", f"{stats.profit_factor:.2f}", False),
("", "", False),
("Risk Metrics", "", True),
("Max Drawdown", f"{stats.max_drawdown:.1f}%", False),
("Max Drawdown ($)", f"${stats.max_drawdown_usd:,.2f}", False),
("Avg Win", f"${stats.avg_win:,.2f}", False),
("Avg Loss", f"${stats.avg_loss:,.2f}", False),
("Expectancy", f"${stats.expectancy:,.2f}", False),
("Sharpe Ratio", f"{stats.sharpe_ratio:.2f}", False),
("", "", False),
("Sweep Stats", "", True),
("BSL Sweeps Detected", stats.bsl_sweeps_detected, False),
("SSL Sweeps Detected", stats.ssl_sweeps_detected, False),
("Sweep-Confirmed Trades", stats.sweep_confirmed_trades, False),
("Sweep-Blocked Trades", stats.sweep_blocked_trades, False),
]
row = 5
for label, value, is_header in summary_data:
ws.cell(row=row, column=1, value=label)
ws.cell(row=row, column=2, value=value)
if is_header:
ws.cell(row=row, column=1).font = subheader_font
ws.cell(row=row, column=1).fill = subheader_fill
ws.cell(row=row, column=2).fill = subheader_fill
if label == "Net PnL":
ws.cell(row=row, column=2).font = Font(bold=True, color="006100" if net_pnl > 0 else "9C0006")
row += 1
ws.column_dimensions["A"].width = 24
ws.column_dimensions["B"].width = 18
# Exit Reason Breakdown
exit_counts = {}
for t in stats.trades:
reason = t.exit_reason.value
exit_counts[reason] = exit_counts.get(reason, 0) + 1
ws.cell(row=5, column=4, value="Exit Reasons")
ws.cell(row=5, column=4).font = subheader_font
ws.cell(row=5, column=4).fill = subheader_fill
ws.cell(row=5, column=5).fill = subheader_fill
ws.cell(row=5, column=6).fill = subheader_fill
row = 6
for reason, count in sorted(exit_counts.items(), key=lambda x: -x[1]):
pct = count / stats.total_trades * 100 if stats.total_trades > 0 else 0
ws.cell(row=row, column=4, value=reason)
ws.cell(row=row, column=5, value=count)
ws.cell(row=row, column=6, value=f"{pct:.1f}%")
row += 1
# Sweep-confirmed vs normal performance
row += 1
ws.cell(row=row, column=4, value="Sweep Analysis")
ws.cell(row=row, column=4).font = subheader_font
ws.cell(row=row, column=4).fill = subheader_fill
for c in range(5, 8):
ws.cell(row=row, column=c).fill = subheader_fill
row += 1
for lbl, col in [("Source", 4), ("Trades", 5), ("WR", 6), ("Net PnL", 7)]:
ws.cell(row=row, column=col, value=lbl).font = Font(bold=True)
row += 1
for source in ["SWEEP+SMC", "SMC"]:
st = [t for t in stats.trades if t.entry_source == source]
sw = sum(1 for t in st if t.result == TradeResult.WIN)
sp = sum(t.profit_usd for t in st)
swr = sw / len(st) * 100 if st else 0
ws.cell(row=row, column=4, value=source)
ws.cell(row=row, column=5, value=len(st))
ws.cell(row=row, column=6, value=f"{swr:.1f}%")
ws.cell(row=row, column=7, value=f"${sp:,.2f}")
row += 1
# Trade Log sheet
ws2 = wb.create_sheet("Trade Log")
headers = [
"Ticket", "Entry Time", "Exit Time", "Dir", "Entry", "Exit", "SL", "TP",
"Lot", "Profit ($)", "Pips", "Result", "Exit Reason", "Conf",
"Regime", "Session", "Signal", "Sweep", "Source", "BOS", "CHoCH", "FVG", "OB",
]
for col, h in enumerate(headers, 1):
cell = ws2.cell(row=1, column=col, value=h)
cell.font = header_font
cell.fill = header_fill
for ri, t in enumerate(stats.trades, 2):
vals = [
t.ticket, t.entry_time.strftime("%Y-%m-%d %H:%M"), t.exit_time.strftime("%Y-%m-%d %H:%M"),
t.direction, t.entry_price, t.exit_price, t.stop_loss, t.take_profit,
t.lot_size, round(t.profit_usd, 2), round(t.profit_pips, 1), t.result.value,
t.exit_reason.value, round(t.smc_confidence, 2), t.regime, t.session, t.signal_reason,
t.sweep_type, t.entry_source,
"Y" if t.has_bos else "", "Y" if t.has_choch else "", "Y" if t.has_fvg else "", "Y" if t.has_ob else "",
]
for ci, v in enumerate(vals, 1):
cell = ws2.cell(row=ri, column=ci, value=v)
cell.border = border
if ci == 10 and isinstance(v, (int, float)):
cell.fill = win_fill if v > 0 else (loss_fill if v < 0 else PatternFill())
for col in range(1, len(headers) + 1):
ws2.column_dimensions[get_column_letter(col)].width = max(11, len(headers[col - 1]) + 3)
# Equity Curve sheet
ws3 = wb.create_sheet("Equity Curve")
for c, h in enumerate(["Trade #", "Equity", "Drawdown ($)"], 1):
ws3.cell(row=1, column=c, value=h).font = header_font
ws3.cell(row=1, column=c).fill = header_fill
peak = stats.equity_curve[0] if stats.equity_curve else 5000
for idx, eq in enumerate(stats.equity_curve):
if eq > peak:
peak = eq
ws3.cell(row=idx + 2, column=1, value=idx)
ws3.cell(row=idx + 2, column=2, value=round(eq, 2))
ws3.cell(row=idx + 2, column=3, value=round(peak - eq, 2))
if len(stats.equity_curve) > 1:
chart = LineChart()
chart.title = "Equity Curve"
chart.style = 10
chart.y_axis.title = "Equity ($)"
chart.width = 30
chart.height = 15
data = Reference(ws3, min_col=2, min_row=1, max_row=len(stats.equity_curve) + 1)
chart.add_data(data, titles_from_data=True)
chart.series[0].graphicalProperties.line.width = 20000
ws3.add_chart(chart, "E2")
wb.save(filepath)
print(f"\n Report saved: {filepath}")
def generate_log(stats: BacktestStats, filepath: str, start_date, end_date, sweep_mode, use_relaxed, lookback):
net_pnl = stats.total_profit - stats.total_loss
lines = []
lines.append("=" * 80)
lines.append("XAUBOT AI — #17 Liquidity Sweep Backtest")
lines.append(f"Mode: {sweep_mode.upper()} | CV: {'relaxed (0.003)' if use_relaxed else 'tight (0.001)'} | Lookback: {lookback}")
lines.append("=" * 80)
lines.append(f"Generated: {datetime.now().strftime('%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S')}")
lines.append(f"Period: {start_date.strftime('%Y-%m-%d')} to {end_date.strftime('%Y-%m-%d')}")
lines.append("")
lines.append("--- SWEEP STATS ---")
lines.append(f" BSL Sweeps Detected: {stats.bsl_sweeps_detected}")
lines.append(f" SSL Sweeps Detected: {stats.ssl_sweeps_detected}")
lines.append(f" Sweep-Confirmed Trades: {stats.sweep_confirmed_trades}")
lines.append(f" Sweep-Blocked Trades: {stats.sweep_blocked_trades}")
lines.append("")
lines.append("--- PERFORMANCE ---")
lines.append(f" Total Trades: {stats.total_trades}")
lines.append(f" Wins: {stats.wins}")
lines.append(f" Losses: {stats.losses}")
lines.append(f" Win Rate: {stats.win_rate:.1f}%")
lines.append(f" Net PnL: ${net_pnl:,.2f}")
lines.append(f" Profit Factor: {stats.profit_factor:.2f}")
lines.append(f" Max Drawdown: {stats.max_drawdown:.1f}% (${stats.max_drawdown_usd:,.2f})")
lines.append(f" Avg Win: ${stats.avg_win:,.2f}")
lines.append(f" Avg Loss: ${stats.avg_loss:,.2f}")
lines.append(f" Expectancy: ${stats.expectancy:,.2f}")
lines.append(f" Sharpe Ratio: {stats.sharpe_ratio:.2f}")
lines.append("")
# Sweep-confirmed vs normal breakdown
lines.append("--- ENTRY SOURCE BREAKDOWN ---")
for source in ["SWEEP+SMC", "SMC"]:
st = [t for t in stats.trades if t.entry_source == source]
sw = sum(1 for t in st if t.result == TradeResult.WIN)
sp = sum(t.profit_usd for t in st)
swr = sw / len(st) * 100 if st else 0
lines.append(f" {source:12s}: {len(st):3d} trades, {swr:5.1f}% WR, ${sp:>8,.2f}")
lines.append("")
lines.append("--- EXIT REASONS ---")
exit_counts = {}
for t in stats.trades:
r = t.exit_reason.value
exit_counts[r] = exit_counts.get(r, 0) + 1
for reason, count in sorted(exit_counts.items(), key=lambda x: -x[1]):
pct = count / stats.total_trades * 100 if stats.total_trades > 0 else 0
lines.append(f" {reason:20s}: {count:4d} ({pct:5.1f}%)")
lines.append("")
lines.append("--- DIRECTION ---")
for d in ["BUY", "SELL"]:
dt = [t for t in stats.trades if t.direction == d]
dw = sum(1 for t in dt if t.result == TradeResult.WIN)
dp = sum(t.profit_usd for t in dt)
dwr = dw / len(dt) * 100 if dt else 0
lines.append(f" {d}: {len(dt)} trades, {dwr:.1f}% WR, ${dp:,.2f}")
lines.append("")
lines.append("--- TRADE LOG ---")
lines.append(f"{'#':>4} {'Entry Time':>16} {'Dir':>4} {'Entry':>10} {'Exit':>10} {'P/L($)':>8} {'Result':>6} {'Exit Reason':>18} {'Sweep':>5} {'Source':>10}")
lines.append("-" * 120)
for idx, t in enumerate(stats.trades, 1):
lines.append(
f"{idx:4d} {t.entry_time.strftime('%Y-%m-%d %H:%M'):>16} {t.direction:>4} "
f"{t.entry_price:>10.2f} {t.exit_price:>10.2f} {t.profit_usd:>8.2f} "
f"{t.result.value:>6} {t.exit_reason.value:>18} {t.sweep_type:>5} {t.entry_source:>10}"
)
lines.append("\n" + "=" * 80)
with open(filepath, "w", encoding="utf-8") as f:
f.write("\n".join(lines))
print(f" Log saved: {filepath}")
# ─── Main ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────
def main():
BASELINE_NET = 1449.86 # Backtest #1 baseline
print("=" * 70)
print("XAUBOT AI — #17 Liquidity Sweep Filter")
print("Base: SMC-Only v4 | Added: Liquidity Sweep entry filter")
print("=" * 70)
config = get_config()
mt5 = MT5Connector(
login=config.mt5_login,
password=config.mt5_password,
server=config.mt5_server,
path=config.mt5_path,
)
mt5.connect()
print(f"\nConnected to MT5")
print("Fetching XAUUSD M15 historical data...")
df = mt5.get_market_data(symbol="XAUUSD", timeframe="M15", count=50000)
if len(df) == 0:
print("ERROR: No data received")
mt5.disconnect()
return
print(f" Received {len(df)} bars")
times = df["time"].to_list()
print(f" Data range: {times[0]} to {times[-1]}")
end_date = datetime.now()
start_date = datetime(2025, 8, 1)
data_start = times[0]
if hasattr(data_start, 'replace') and data_start.tzinfo:
start_date = start_date.replace(tzinfo=data_start.tzinfo)
end_date = end_date.replace(tzinfo=data_start.tzinfo)
if data_start > start_date:
start_date = data_start + timedelta(days=5)
print(f"\n Backtest period: {start_date.strftime('%Y-%m-%d')} to {end_date.strftime('%Y-%m-%d')}")
print("\nCalculating indicators...")
features = FeatureEngineer()
smc = SMCAnalyzer(swing_length=config.smc.swing_length, ob_lookback=config.smc.ob_lookback)
df = features.calculate_all(df, include_ml_features=True)
df = smc.calculate_all(df)
# Calculate liquidity zones with multiple CV thresholds
print(" Calculating liquidity zones (multi-CV)...")
df = calculate_liquidity_zones_multi(
df,
cv_thresholds=[0.001, 0.002, 0.003],
window_size=20,
)
# Count sweeps at each threshold for diagnostics
for cv_t in [0.001, 0.002, 0.003]:
suffix = f"_{int(cv_t * 10000)}"
col = f"sweep{suffix}"
if col in df.columns:
bsl_count = (df[col] == "BSL").sum()
ssl_count = (df[col] == "SSL").sum()
print(f" CV={cv_t}: BSL={bsl_count}, SSL={ssl_count} sweeps")
regime_detector = MarketRegimeDetector(model_path="models/hmm_regime.pkl")
try:
regime_detector.load()
df = regime_detector.predict(df)
print(" HMM regime loaded")
except Exception:
print(" [WARN] HMM not available")
print(" Indicators calculated")
# ═══ Run both modes: FILTER with relaxed CV, then BOOST ═══
results = {}
for mode, use_relaxed, lookback in [
("filter", True, 15), # Relaxed CV + filter mode
("filter", True, 30), # Wider lookback
("filter", False, 15), # Tight CV + filter mode
]:
label = f"{mode}_{'relaxed' if use_relaxed else 'tight'}_lb{lookback}"
print(f"\n{'='*60}")
print(f" Config: {label}")
bt = LiquiditySweepBacktest(
capital=5000.0,
max_daily_loss_percent=5.0,
max_loss_per_trade_percent=1.0,
base_lot_size=0.01,
max_lot_size=0.02,
recovery_lot_size=0.01,
breakeven_pips=30.0,
trail_start_pips=50.0,
trail_step_pips=30.0,
min_profit_to_protect=5.0,
max_drawdown_from_peak=50.0,
trade_cooldown_bars=10,
trend_reversal_mult=0.6,
sweep_lookback=lookback,
sweep_mode=mode,
use_relaxed_cv=use_relaxed,
)
stats = bt.run(df=df, start_date=start_date, end_date=end_date, initial_capital=5000.0)
net_pnl = stats.total_profit - stats.total_loss
results[label] = (stats, net_pnl, mode, use_relaxed, lookback)
print(f"\n [{label}] Results:")
print(f" Trades: {stats.total_trades} | WR: {stats.win_rate:.1f}%")
print(f" Net PnL: ${net_pnl:,.2f} | PF: {stats.profit_factor:.2f}")
print(f" Max DD: {stats.max_drawdown:.1f}% | Sharpe: {stats.sharpe_ratio:.2f}")
print(f" Sweep confirmed: {stats.sweep_confirmed_trades} | Blocked: {stats.sweep_blocked_trades}")
print(f" vs BASELINE: ${net_pnl - BASELINE_NET:+,.2f}")
# ═══ Print comparison table ═══
print("\n" + "=" * 70)
print("#17 LIQUIDITY SWEEP — ALL CONFIGURATIONS")
print("=" * 70)
print(f"\n {'Config':<35} {'Trades':>6} {'WR':>6} {'Net PnL':>10} {'DD':>6} {'Sharpe':>7} {'PF':>5} {'vs Base':>10}")
print(" " + "-" * 95)
print(f" {'BASELINE (#1 SMC-Only)':<35} {'686':>6} {'72.2%':>6} {'$1,449.86':>10} {'5.4%':>6} {'1.98':>7} {'1.52':>5} {'—':>10}")
best_label = None
best_pnl = -float("inf")
for label, (stats, net_pnl, mode, use_relaxed, lookback) in results.items():
diff = net_pnl - BASELINE_NET
print(f" {label:<35} {stats.total_trades:>6} {stats.win_rate:>5.1f}% ${net_pnl:>9,.2f} {stats.max_drawdown:>5.1f}% {stats.sharpe_ratio:>7.2f} {stats.profit_factor:>5.2f} ${diff:>+9,.2f}")
if net_pnl > best_pnl:
best_pnl = net_pnl
best_label = label
# ═══ Save best config ═══
if best_label and best_label in results:
best_stats, best_net, best_mode, best_relaxed, best_lb = results[best_label]
print(f"\n Best config: {best_label}")
# Direction breakdown
print(f"\n Direction:")
for d in ["BUY", "SELL"]:
dt = [t for t in best_stats.trades if t.direction == d]
dw = sum(1 for t in dt if t.result == TradeResult.WIN)
dp = sum(t.profit_usd for t in dt)
dwr = dw / len(dt) * 100 if dt else 0
print(f" {d}: {len(dt)} trades, {dwr:.1f}% WR, ${dp:,.2f}")
# Exit reasons
print(f"\n Exit Reasons:")
exit_counts = {}
for t in best_stats.trades:
r = t.exit_reason.value
exit_counts[r] = exit_counts.get(r, 0) + 1
for reason, count in sorted(exit_counts.items(), key=lambda x: -x[1]):
pct = count / best_stats.total_trades * 100 if best_stats.total_trades > 0 else 0
print(f" {reason:20s}: {count} ({pct:.1f}%)")
# Save reports
timestamp = datetime.now().strftime("%Y%m%d_%H%M%S")
output_dir = os.path.join(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)), "17_liquidity_sweep_results")
os.makedirs(output_dir, exist_ok=True)
log_path = os.path.join(output_dir, f"liq_sweep_{timestamp}.log")
xlsx_path = os.path.join(output_dir, f"liq_sweep_{timestamp}.xlsx")
generate_log(best_stats, log_path, start_date, end_date, best_mode, best_relaxed, best_lb)
generate_xlsx_report(best_stats, xlsx_path, start_date, end_date, best_mode, best_relaxed, best_lb)
print("\n" + "=" * 70)
print(f"Output: {output_dir}")
print(f" Log: {os.path.basename(log_path)}")
print(f" Report: {os.path.basename(xlsx_path)}")
print("=" * 70)
mt5.disconnect()
print("Backtest complete!")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()