""" Backtest #15 — SMC + RTM Compression Filter ================================================================== Base: SMC-Only v4 (#1 Baseline) Added: RTM Compression detection as entry filter Compression = price ranges narrowing + more base candles → zone approach is validated When price compresses into OB/FVG zone, the zone is more likely to hold. Usage: python backtests/backtest_15_compression.py """ import polars as pl import pandas as pd import numpy as np from datetime import datetime, timedelta, date from typing import Dict, List, Tuple, Optional from dataclasses import dataclass, field from enum import Enum import sys import os from zoneinfo import ZoneInfo from openpyxl import Workbook from openpyxl.styles import Font, Alignment, PatternFill, Border, Side from openpyxl.chart import LineChart, Reference from openpyxl.utils import get_column_letter sys.path.insert(0, os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)))) from src.mt5_connector import MT5Connector from src.smc_polars import SMCAnalyzer, SMCSignal from src.feature_eng import FeatureEngineer from src.regime_detector import MarketRegimeDetector, MarketRegime from src.ml_model import TradingModel from src.config import get_config from src.dynamic_confidence import DynamicConfidenceManager, create_dynamic_confidence, MarketQuality from loguru import logger logger.remove() logger.add(sys.stderr, level="WARNING") WIB = ZoneInfo("Asia/Jakarta") # ─── Enums & Dataclasses ────────────────────────────────────── class TradeResult(Enum): WIN = "WIN" LOSS = "LOSS" BREAKEVEN = "BREAKEVEN" class ExitReason(Enum): TAKE_PROFIT = "take_profit" SMART_TP = "smart_tp" PEAK_PROTECT = "peak_protect" EARLY_EXIT = "early_exit" EARLY_CUT = "early_cut" MAX_LOSS = "max_loss" STALL = "stall" TREND_REVERSAL = "trend_reversal" TIMEOUT = "timeout" WEEKEND_CLOSE = "weekend_close" TRAILING_SL = "trailing_sl" BREAKEVEN_EXIT = "breakeven_exit" DAILY_LIMIT = "daily_limit" REGIME_DANGER = "regime_danger" MARKET_SIGNAL = "market_signal" class TradingMode(Enum): NORMAL = "normal" RECOVERY = "recovery" PROTECTED = "protected" STOPPED = "stopped" @dataclass class SimulatedTrade: ticket: int entry_time: datetime exit_time: datetime direction: str entry_price: float exit_price: float stop_loss: float take_profit: float lot_size: float profit_usd: float profit_pips: float result: TradeResult exit_reason: ExitReason smc_confidence: float regime: str session: str signal_reason: str has_bos: bool = False has_choch: bool = False has_fvg: bool = False has_ob: bool = False atr_at_entry: float = 0.0 rr_ratio: float = 0.0 trading_mode: str = "normal" compression_score: float = 0.0 @dataclass class BacktestStats: total_trades: int = 0 wins: int = 0 losses: int = 0 total_profit: float = 0.0 total_loss: float = 0.0 max_drawdown: float = 0.0 max_drawdown_usd: float = 0.0 win_rate: float = 0.0 profit_factor: float = 0.0 avg_win: float = 0.0 avg_loss: float = 0.0 avg_trade: float = 0.0 expectancy: float = 0.0 sharpe_ratio: float = 0.0 trades: List[SimulatedTrade] = field(default_factory=list) equity_curve: List[float] = field(default_factory=list) avoided_signals: int = 0 daily_limit_stops: int = 0 recovery_mode_trades: int = 0 # Compression filter stats compression_blocked: int = 0 compression_passed: int = 0 avg_compression_score: float = 0.0 # ─── SMC + Compression Backtest ────────────────────────── class CompressionBacktest: """SMC-Only v4 + RTM Compression entry filter.""" def __init__( self, capital: float = 5000.0, max_daily_loss_percent: float = 5.0, max_loss_per_trade_percent: float = 1.0, base_lot_size: float = 0.01, max_lot_size: float = 0.02, recovery_lot_size: float = 0.01, trend_reversal_threshold: float = 0.75, max_concurrent_positions: int = 2, breakeven_pips: float = 30.0, trail_start_pips: float = 50.0, trail_step_pips: float = 30.0, min_profit_to_protect: float = 5.0, max_drawdown_from_peak: float = 50.0, trade_cooldown_bars: int = 10, trend_reversal_mult: float = 0.6, # ═══ Compression filter params ═══ compression_lookback: int = 8, compression_min_score: float = 40.0, ): self.capital = capital self.max_daily_loss_usd = capital * (max_daily_loss_percent / 100) self.max_loss_per_trade = capital * (max_loss_per_trade_percent / 100) self.base_lot_size = base_lot_size self.max_lot_size = max_lot_size self.recovery_lot_size = recovery_lot_size self.trend_reversal_threshold = trend_reversal_threshold self.max_concurrent_positions = max_concurrent_positions self.breakeven_pips = breakeven_pips self.trail_start_pips = trail_start_pips self.trail_step_pips = trail_step_pips self.min_profit_to_protect = min_profit_to_protect self.max_drawdown_from_peak = max_drawdown_from_peak self.trade_cooldown_bars = trade_cooldown_bars self.trend_reversal_mult = trend_reversal_mult self.compression_lookback = compression_lookback self.compression_min_score = compression_min_score config = get_config() self.smc = SMCAnalyzer( swing_length=config.smc.swing_length, ob_lookback=config.smc.ob_lookback, ) self.features = FeatureEngineer() self.dynamic_confidence = create_dynamic_confidence() self.ml_model = TradingModel(model_path="models/xgboost_model.pkl") try: self.ml_model.load() print(" ML model loaded (for exit evaluation)") except Exception: print(" [WARN] ML model not loaded — exit ML checks disabled") self.regime_detector = MarketRegimeDetector(model_path="models/hmm_regime.pkl") try: self.regime_detector.load() except Exception: print(" [WARN] HMM model not loaded") self._ticket_counter = 2000000 # ═══ RTM COMPRESSION DETECTION ═══ def _detect_compression(self, df_slice: pl.DataFrame, lookback: int = None) -> Tuple[bool, float]: """ Detect RTM Compression: price ranges narrowing + base candles increasing. Compression scoring (0-100): - Range narrowing (recent vs older): up to 40 points - Base candle ratio (body < 50% of range): up to 30 points - ATR declining: up to 30 points Returns: (is_compressed, score) """ if lookback is None: lookback = self.compression_lookback n = len(df_slice) if n < lookback + 5: return False, 0.0 highs = df_slice["high"].to_list() lows = df_slice["low"].to_list() opens = df_slice["open"].to_list() closes = df_slice["close"].to_list() half = lookback // 2 # 1. Range narrowing: compare recent half vs older half recent_ranges = [] older_ranges = [] for j in range(half): recent_ranges.append(highs[n - 1 - j] - lows[n - 1 - j]) older_ranges.append(highs[n - 1 - half - j] - lows[n - 1 - half - j]) avg_recent = sum(recent_ranges) / len(recent_ranges) if recent_ranges else 1 avg_older = sum(older_ranges) / len(older_ranges) if older_ranges else 1 if avg_older <= 0: return False, 0.0 range_ratio = avg_recent / avg_older # < 1.0 = narrowing # 2. Base candle count in lookback window base_count = 0 for j in range(lookback): idx = n - 1 - j if idx < 0: continue body = abs(closes[idx] - opens[idx]) candle_range = highs[idx] - lows[idx] if candle_range > 0 and body / candle_range < 0.50: base_count += 1 base_ratio = base_count / lookback # 3. ATR declining atr_score = 0.0 if "atr" in df_slice.columns: atr_list = df_slice["atr"].to_list() current_atr = atr_list[-1] older_idx = max(0, n - lookback - 1) older_atr = atr_list[older_idx] if current_atr and older_atr and older_atr > 0: atr_ratio = current_atr / older_atr if atr_ratio < 0.80: atr_score = 30 elif atr_ratio < 0.90: atr_score = 20 elif atr_ratio < 0.95: atr_score = 10 # Score calculation score = 0.0 # Range narrowing score (max 40) if range_ratio < 0.60: score += 40 elif range_ratio < 0.70: score += 30 elif range_ratio < 0.80: score += 20 elif range_ratio < 0.90: score += 10 # Base candle score (max 30) if base_ratio >= 0.625: # 5/8 score += 30 elif base_ratio >= 0.50: # 4/8 score += 20 elif base_ratio >= 0.375: # 3/8 score += 10 # ATR score (max 30) score += atr_score is_compressed = score >= self.compression_min_score return is_compressed, score # ── Session filter (synced) ── def _get_session_from_time(self, dt: datetime) -> Tuple[str, bool, float]: if dt.tzinfo is None: dt = dt.replace(tzinfo=ZoneInfo("UTC")) wib_time = dt.astimezone(WIB) hour = wib_time.hour if 6 <= hour < 15: return "Sydney-Tokyo", True, 0.5 elif 15 <= hour < 16: return "Tokyo-London Overlap", True, 0.75 elif 16 <= hour < 19: return "London Early", True, 0.8 elif 19 <= hour < 24: return "London-NY Overlap (Golden)", True, 1.0 elif 0 <= hour < 4: return "NY Session", True, 0.9 else: return "Off Hours", False, 0.0 def _hours_to_golden(self, dt: datetime) -> float: if dt.tzinfo is None: dt = dt.replace(tzinfo=ZoneInfo("UTC")) wib = dt.astimezone(WIB) if 19 <= wib.hour < 24: return 0 target = wib.replace(hour=19, minute=0, second=0, microsecond=0) if wib.hour >= 19: target += timedelta(days=1) return max(0, (target - wib).total_seconds() / 3600) def _is_near_weekend_close(self, dt: datetime) -> bool: if dt.tzinfo is None: dt = dt.replace(tzinfo=ZoneInfo("UTC")) wib = dt.astimezone(WIB) if wib.weekday() == 5 and wib.hour >= 4 and wib.minute >= 30: return True return False # ── Lot sizing (synced) ── def _calculate_lot_size(self, confidence, regime, trading_mode, session_mult): if trading_mode == TradingMode.STOPPED: return 0 lot = self.base_lot_size if trading_mode in (TradingMode.RECOVERY, TradingMode.PROTECTED): lot = self.recovery_lot_size else: if confidence >= 0.65: lot = self.max_lot_size elif confidence >= 0.55: lot = self.base_lot_size else: lot = self.recovery_lot_size if regime.lower() in ["high_volatility", "crisis"]: lot = self.recovery_lot_size lot = max(0.01, lot * session_mult) return round(lot, 2) # ── Full exit simulation (all 3 systems — same as baseline) ── def _simulate_trade_exit( self, df, entry_idx, direction, entry_price, take_profit, stop_loss, lot_size, daily_loss_so_far, feature_cols, max_bars=100, ) -> Tuple[float, float, ExitReason, int, float]: pip_value = 10 highs = df["high"].to_list() lows = df["low"].to_list() closes = df["close"].to_list() times = df["time"].to_list() atr = 12.0 if "atr" in df.columns: atr_list = df["atr"].to_list() if entry_idx < len(atr_list) and atr_list[entry_idx] is not None: atr = atr_list[entry_idx] reversal_momentum_threshold = atr * self.trend_reversal_mult min_loss_for_reversal_exit = atr * 0.8 profit_history = [] price_history = [] peak_profit = 0.0 stall_count = 0 reversal_warnings = 0 current_sl = stop_loss breakeven_moved = False if direction == "BUY": target_tp_profit = (take_profit - entry_price) / 0.1 * pip_value * lot_size else: target_tp_profit = (entry_price - take_profit) / 0.1 * pip_value * lot_size cached_ml_signal = "" cached_ml_confidence = 0.5 for i in range(entry_idx + 1, min(entry_idx + max_bars, len(df))): high = highs[i] low = lows[i] close = closes[i] current_time = times[i] if direction == "BUY": current_pips = (close - entry_price) / 0.1 pip_profit_from_entry = (close - entry_price) / 0.1 else: current_pips = (entry_price - close) / 0.1 pip_profit_from_entry = (entry_price - close) / 0.1 current_profit = current_pips * pip_value * lot_size profit_history.append(current_profit) price_history.append(close) if current_profit > peak_profit: peak_profit = current_profit bars_since_entry = i - entry_idx if bars_since_entry % 4 == 0 and self.ml_model.fitted: try: df_slice = df.head(i + 1) ml_pred = self.ml_model.predict(df_slice, feature_cols) cached_ml_signal = ml_pred.signal cached_ml_confidence = ml_pred.confidence except Exception: pass momentum = 0.0 if len(profit_history) >= 3: recent = profit_history[-5:] if len(profit_history) >= 5 else profit_history profit_change = recent[-1] - recent[0] momentum = max(-100, min(100, (profit_change / 10) * 50)) profit_growing = momentum > 0 # A) SmartPositionManager if direction == "BUY" and high >= take_profit: pips = (take_profit - entry_price) / 0.1 profit = pips * pip_value * lot_size return profit, pips, ExitReason.TAKE_PROFIT, i, take_profit elif direction == "SELL" and low <= take_profit: pips = (entry_price - take_profit) / 0.1 profit = pips * pip_value * lot_size return profit, pips, ExitReason.TAKE_PROFIT, i, take_profit if breakeven_moved and current_sl > 0: if direction == "BUY" and low <= current_sl: pips = (current_sl - entry_price) / 0.1 profit = pips * pip_value * lot_size reason = ExitReason.TRAILING_SL if pip_profit_from_entry >= self.trail_start_pips else ExitReason.BREAKEVEN_EXIT return profit, pips, reason, i, current_sl elif direction == "SELL" and high >= current_sl: pips = (entry_price - current_sl) / 0.1 profit = pips * pip_value * lot_size reason = ExitReason.TRAILING_SL if pip_profit_from_entry >= self.trail_start_pips else ExitReason.BREAKEVEN_EXIT return profit, pips, reason, i, current_sl if pip_profit_from_entry >= self.breakeven_pips and not breakeven_moved: if direction == "BUY": current_sl = entry_price + 2 else: current_sl = entry_price - 2 breakeven_moved = True if pip_profit_from_entry >= self.trail_start_pips: trail_distance = self.trail_step_pips * 0.1 if direction == "BUY": new_trail_sl = close - trail_distance if new_trail_sl > current_sl: current_sl = new_trail_sl else: new_trail_sl = close + trail_distance if current_sl == 0 or new_trail_sl < current_sl: current_sl = new_trail_sl if peak_profit > self.min_profit_to_protect: drawdown_pct = ((peak_profit - current_profit) / peak_profit) * 100 if peak_profit > 0 else 0 if drawdown_pct > self.max_drawdown_from_peak: return current_profit, current_pips, ExitReason.PEAK_PROTECT, i, close if bars_since_entry % 5 == 0 and bars_since_entry >= 5: if i >= 20: ma_fast = np.mean(closes[i-4:i+1]) ma_slow = np.mean(closes[i-19:i+1]) trend = "NEUTRAL" if ma_fast > ma_slow * 1.001: trend = "BULLISH" elif ma_fast < ma_slow * 0.999: trend = "BEARISH" roc = (closes[i] / closes[max(0,i-4)] - 1) * 100 mom_dir = "BULLISH" if roc > 0.3 else ("BEARISH" if roc < -0.3 else "NEUTRAL") rsi_val = None if "rsi" in df.columns: rsi_list = df["rsi"].to_list() if i < len(rsi_list): rsi_val = rsi_list[i] urgency = 0 should_exit = False if cached_ml_confidence > 0.75: if direction == "BUY" and cached_ml_signal == "SELL": should_exit = True urgency += 2 elif direction == "SELL" and cached_ml_signal == "BUY": should_exit = True urgency += 2 if rsi_val: if rsi_val > 75 and direction == "BUY": should_exit = True urgency += 2 elif rsi_val < 25 and direction == "SELL": should_exit = True urgency += 2 if direction == "BUY" and trend == "BEARISH" and mom_dir == "BEARISH": should_exit = True urgency += 3 elif direction == "SELL" and trend == "BULLISH" and mom_dir == "BULLISH": should_exit = True urgency += 3 if should_exit and current_profit > self.min_profit_to_protect / 2: return current_profit, current_pips, ExitReason.MARKET_SIGNAL, i, close if urgency >= 7 and current_profit > 0: return current_profit, current_pips, ExitReason.MARKET_SIGNAL, i, close if self._is_near_weekend_close(current_time): if current_profit > 0: return current_profit, current_pips, ExitReason.WEEKEND_CLOSE, i, close elif current_profit > -10: return current_profit, current_pips, ExitReason.WEEKEND_CLOSE, i, close # B) SmartRiskManager if current_profit >= 15: if current_profit >= 40: return current_profit, current_pips, ExitReason.SMART_TP, i, close if current_profit >= 25 and momentum < -30: return current_profit, current_pips, ExitReason.SMART_TP, i, close if peak_profit > 30 and current_profit < peak_profit * 0.6: return current_profit, current_pips, ExitReason.PEAK_PROTECT, i, close if current_profit >= 20: progress = (current_profit / target_tp_profit) * 100 if target_tp_profit > 0 else 0 progress_score = min(40, max(0, progress * 0.4)) momentum_score = ((momentum + 100) / 200) * 30 time_penalty = min(10, bars_since_entry / 4 * 2) tp_probability = progress_score + momentum_score + 10 - time_penalty if tp_probability < 25: return current_profit, current_pips, ExitReason.SMART_TP, i, close if 5 <= current_profit < 15: if momentum < -50 and cached_ml_confidence >= 0.65: is_reversal = ( (direction == "BUY" and cached_ml_signal == "SELL") or (direction == "SELL" and cached_ml_signal == "BUY") ) if is_reversal: return current_profit, current_pips, ExitReason.EARLY_EXIT, i, close if current_profit < 0: loss_percent_of_max = abs(current_profit) / self.max_loss_per_trade * 100 if momentum < -30 and loss_percent_of_max >= 30: return current_profit, current_pips, ExitReason.EARLY_CUT, i, close is_ml_reversal = False if direction == "BUY" and cached_ml_signal == "SELL" and cached_ml_confidence >= self.trend_reversal_threshold: is_ml_reversal = True reversal_warnings += 1 elif direction == "SELL" and cached_ml_signal == "BUY" and cached_ml_confidence >= self.trend_reversal_threshold: is_ml_reversal = True reversal_warnings += 1 loss_moderate = abs(current_profit) > (self.max_loss_per_trade * 0.4) if is_ml_reversal and current_profit < -8 and loss_moderate: return current_profit, current_pips, ExitReason.TREND_REVERSAL, i, close if reversal_warnings >= 3 and current_profit < -10: return current_profit, current_pips, ExitReason.TREND_REVERSAL, i, close if current_profit <= -(self.max_loss_per_trade * 0.50): htg = self._hours_to_golden(current_time) if htg <= 1 and htg > 0 and momentum > -40: pass else: return current_profit, current_pips, ExitReason.MAX_LOSS, i, close if len(profit_history) >= 10: recent_range = max(profit_history[-10:]) - min(profit_history[-10:]) if recent_range < 3 and current_profit < -15: stall_count += 1 if stall_count >= 5: return current_profit, current_pips, ExitReason.STALL, i, close potential_daily_loss = daily_loss_so_far + abs(min(0, current_profit)) if potential_daily_loss >= self.max_daily_loss_usd: return current_profit, current_pips, ExitReason.DAILY_LIMIT, i, close # C) Time-based exit ml_agrees = ( (direction == "BUY" and cached_ml_signal == "BUY") or (direction == "SELL" and cached_ml_signal == "SELL") ) if bars_since_entry >= 16: if current_profit < 5 and not profit_growing: if current_profit >= 0: return current_profit, current_pips, ExitReason.TIMEOUT, i, close elif current_profit > -15: return current_profit, current_pips, ExitReason.TIMEOUT, i, close if bars_since_entry >= 24: if current_profit < 10 or not profit_growing: return current_profit, current_pips, ExitReason.TIMEOUT, i, close if bars_since_entry >= 32: return current_profit, current_pips, ExitReason.TIMEOUT, i, close if bars_since_entry > 10: recent_closes = closes[i-5:i+1] mom = recent_closes[-1] - recent_closes[0] if direction == "BUY" and mom < -reversal_momentum_threshold: if current_profit < -min_loss_for_reversal_exit: return current_profit, current_pips, ExitReason.TREND_REVERSAL, i, close elif direction == "SELL" and mom > reversal_momentum_threshold: if current_profit < -min_loss_for_reversal_exit: return current_profit, current_pips, ExitReason.TREND_REVERSAL, i, close final_idx = min(entry_idx + max_bars - 1, len(df) - 1) final_price = closes[final_idx] if direction == "BUY": pips = (final_price - entry_price) / 0.1 else: pips = (entry_price - final_price) / 0.1 profit = pips * pip_value * lot_size return profit, pips, ExitReason.TIMEOUT, final_idx, final_price # ── Main backtest run ── def run(self, df, start_date=None, end_date=None, initial_capital=5000.0): stats = BacktestStats() capital = initial_capital peak_capital = initial_capital stats.equity_curve.append(capital) daily_loss = 0.0 daily_profit = 0.0 daily_trades = 0 consecutive_losses = 0 trading_mode = TradingMode.NORMAL current_date = None feature_cols = [] if self.ml_model.fitted and self.ml_model.feature_names: feature_cols = [f for f in self.ml_model.feature_names if f in df.columns] times = df["time"].to_list() start_idx = next((i for i, t in enumerate(times) if t >= start_date), 100) if start_date else 100 end_idx = next((i for i, t in enumerate(times) if t > end_date), len(df) - 100) if end_date else len(df) - 100 last_trade_idx = -self.trade_cooldown_bars * 2 compression_scores = [] print(f"\n Running SMC + Compression Filter backtest...") print(f" Compression: lookback={self.compression_lookback}, min_score={self.compression_min_score}") print(f" Date range: {times[start_idx]} to {times[end_idx - 1]}") print(f" Total bars: {end_idx - start_idx}") for i in range(start_idx, end_idx): if i - last_trade_idx < self.trade_cooldown_bars: continue current_time = times[i] trade_date = current_time.date() if hasattr(current_time, 'date') else current_time if current_date is None or trade_date != current_date: daily_loss = 0.0 daily_profit = 0.0 daily_trades = 0 current_date = trade_date if consecutive_losses < 2: trading_mode = TradingMode.NORMAL if trading_mode == TradingMode.STOPPED: continue session_name, can_trade, lot_mult = self._get_session_from_time(current_time) if not can_trade: continue if hasattr(current_time, 'weekday') and current_time.weekday() >= 5: continue df_slice = df.head(i + 1) regime = "normal" try: if self.regime_detector.fitted: regime_state = self.regime_detector.get_current_state(df_slice) if regime_state: regime = regime_state.regime.value if regime_state.regime == MarketRegime.CRISIS: continue if regime_state.recommendation == "SLEEP": continue except Exception: pass # Dynamic confidence AVOID try: ml_signal = "" ml_confidence = 0.5 if self.ml_model.fitted and feature_cols: ml_pred = self.ml_model.predict(df_slice, feature_cols) ml_signal = ml_pred.signal ml_confidence = ml_pred.confidence market_analysis = self.dynamic_confidence.analyze_market( session=session_name, regime=regime, volatility="medium", trend_direction=regime, has_smc_signal=True, ml_signal=ml_signal, ml_confidence=ml_confidence, ) if market_analysis.quality == MarketQuality.AVOID: stats.avoided_signals += 1 continue except Exception: pass # SMC Signal try: smc_signal = self.smc.generate_signal(df_slice) except Exception: continue if smc_signal is None: continue # ═══ COMPRESSION FILTER (RTM) ═══ is_compressed, comp_score = self._detect_compression(df_slice) compression_scores.append(comp_score) if not is_compressed: stats.compression_blocked += 1 continue stats.compression_passed += 1 # SMC details recent_df = df_slice.tail(10) recent_bos = recent_df["bos"].to_list() if "bos" in df_slice.columns else [] recent_choch = recent_df["choch"].to_list() if "choch" in df_slice.columns else [] recent_fvg_bull = recent_df["is_fvg_bull"].to_list() if "is_fvg_bull" in df_slice.columns else [] recent_fvg_bear = recent_df["is_fvg_bear"].to_list() if "is_fvg_bear" in df_slice.columns else [] recent_obs = recent_df["ob"].to_list() if "ob" in df_slice.columns else [] has_bos = 1 in recent_bos or -1 in recent_bos has_choch = 1 in recent_choch or -1 in recent_choch has_fvg = any(recent_fvg_bull) or any(recent_fvg_bear) has_ob = 1 in recent_obs or -1 in recent_obs atr_at_entry = 12.0 if "atr" in df_slice.columns: atr_val = df_slice.tail(1)["atr"].item() if atr_val is not None and atr_val > 0: atr_at_entry = atr_val confidence = smc_signal.confidence ml_agrees = ( (smc_signal.signal_type == "BUY" and ml_signal == "BUY") or (smc_signal.signal_type == "SELL" and ml_signal == "SELL") ) if ml_agrees: confidence = (smc_signal.confidence + ml_confidence) / 2 if regime == "high_volatility": confidence *= 0.9 lot_size = self._calculate_lot_size(confidence, regime, trading_mode, lot_mult) if lot_size <= 0: continue if trading_mode == TradingMode.RECOVERY: stats.recovery_mode_trades += 1 entry_price = smc_signal.entry_price take_profit_price = smc_signal.take_profit stop_loss_price = smc_signal.stop_loss risk = abs(entry_price - stop_loss_price) rr = abs(take_profit_price - entry_price) / risk if risk > 0 else 0 profit, pips, exit_reason, exit_idx, exit_price = self._simulate_trade_exit( df=df, entry_idx=i, direction=smc_signal.signal_type, entry_price=entry_price, take_profit=take_profit_price, stop_loss=stop_loss_price, lot_size=lot_size, daily_loss_so_far=daily_loss, feature_cols=feature_cols, ) self._ticket_counter += 1 result = TradeResult.WIN if profit > 0 else (TradeResult.LOSS if profit < 0 else TradeResult.BREAKEVEN) trade = SimulatedTrade( ticket=self._ticket_counter, entry_time=current_time, exit_time=times[exit_idx] if exit_idx < len(times) else times[-1], direction=smc_signal.signal_type, entry_price=entry_price, exit_price=exit_price, stop_loss=stop_loss_price, take_profit=take_profit_price, lot_size=lot_size, profit_usd=profit, profit_pips=pips, result=result, exit_reason=exit_reason, smc_confidence=confidence, regime=regime, session=session_name, signal_reason=smc_signal.reason, has_bos=has_bos, has_choch=has_choch, has_fvg=has_fvg, has_ob=has_ob, atr_at_entry=atr_at_entry, rr_ratio=rr, trading_mode=trading_mode.value, compression_score=comp_score, ) stats.trades.append(trade) stats.total_trades += 1 daily_trades += 1 capital += profit if profit > 0: stats.wins += 1 stats.total_profit += profit daily_profit += profit consecutive_losses = 0 if trading_mode == TradingMode.RECOVERY: trading_mode = TradingMode.NORMAL else: stats.losses += 1 stats.total_loss += abs(profit) daily_loss += abs(profit) consecutive_losses += 1 if daily_loss >= self.max_daily_loss_usd: trading_mode = TradingMode.STOPPED stats.daily_limit_stops += 1 elif consecutive_losses >= 3 or daily_loss >= self.max_daily_loss_usd * 0.6: trading_mode = TradingMode.PROTECTED elif consecutive_losses >= 2: trading_mode = TradingMode.RECOVERY if capital > peak_capital: peak_capital = capital drawdown_pct = (peak_capital - capital) / peak_capital * 100 drawdown_usd = peak_capital - capital if drawdown_pct > stats.max_drawdown: stats.max_drawdown = drawdown_pct stats.max_drawdown_usd = drawdown_usd stats.equity_curve.append(capital) last_trade_idx = exit_idx if stats.total_trades % 100 == 0: print(f" {stats.total_trades} trades processed...") # Final statistics if stats.total_trades > 0: stats.win_rate = stats.wins / stats.total_trades * 100 stats.avg_win = stats.total_profit / stats.wins if stats.wins > 0 else 0 stats.avg_loss = stats.total_loss / stats.losses if stats.losses > 0 else 0 stats.avg_trade = (stats.total_profit - stats.total_loss) / stats.total_trades stats.profit_factor = stats.total_profit / stats.total_loss if stats.total_loss > 0 else float("inf") win_prob = stats.wins / stats.total_trades loss_prob = stats.losses / stats.total_trades stats.expectancy = (win_prob * stats.avg_win) - (loss_prob * stats.avg_loss) returns = [t.profit_usd for t in stats.trades] if len(returns) > 1: avg_return = np.mean(returns) std_return = np.std(returns) stats.sharpe_ratio = (avg_return / std_return) * np.sqrt(252) if std_return > 0 else 0 if compression_scores: stats.avg_compression_score = sum(compression_scores) / len(compression_scores) return stats # ─── XLSX Report ─────────────────────────────────────────────── def generate_xlsx_report(stats, filepath, start_date, end_date): wb = Workbook() header_font = Font(name="Calibri", bold=True, size=12, color="FFFFFF") header_fill = PatternFill(start_color="1F4E79", end_color="1F4E79", fill_type="solid") subheader_font = Font(name="Calibri", bold=True, size=10) subheader_fill = PatternFill(start_color="D6E4F0", end_color="D6E4F0", fill_type="solid") win_fill = PatternFill(start_color="C6EFCE", end_color="C6EFCE", fill_type="solid") loss_fill = PatternFill(start_color="FFC7CE", end_color="FFC7CE", fill_type="solid") border = Border(left=Side(style="thin"), right=Side(style="thin"), top=Side(style="thin"), bottom=Side(style="thin")) net_pnl = stats.total_profit - stats.total_loss ws = wb.active ws.title = "Summary" ws.merge_cells("A1:F1") ws["A1"] = "XAUBot AI — #15 SMC + Compression Filter Report" ws["A1"].font = Font(name="Calibri", bold=True, size=16, color="1F4E79") ws["A2"] = f"Period: {start_date.strftime('%Y-%m-%d')} to {end_date.strftime('%Y-%m-%d')}" ws["A3"] = f"Generated: {datetime.now().strftime('%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S')}" summary_data = [ ("Performance Metrics", "", True), ("Total Trades", stats.total_trades, False), ("Wins", stats.wins, False), ("Losses", stats.losses, False), ("Win Rate", f"{stats.win_rate:.1f}%", False), ("Compression Blocked", stats.compression_blocked, False), ("Compression Passed", stats.compression_passed, False), ("Avg Compression Score", f"{stats.avg_compression_score:.1f}", False), ("Avoided (AVOID)", stats.avoided_signals, False), ("Recovery Trades", stats.recovery_mode_trades, False), ("", "", False), ("Profit - Loss", "", True), ("Total Profit", f"${stats.total_profit:,.2f}", False), ("Total Loss", f"${stats.total_loss:,.2f}", False), ("Net PnL", f"${net_pnl:,.2f}", False), ("Profit Factor", f"{stats.profit_factor:.2f}", False), ("", "", False), ("Risk Metrics", "", True), ("Max Drawdown", f"{stats.max_drawdown:.1f}%", False), ("Max Drawdown ($)", f"${stats.max_drawdown_usd:,.2f}", False), ("Avg Win", f"${stats.avg_win:,.2f}", False), ("Avg Loss", f"${stats.avg_loss:,.2f}", False), ("Expectancy", f"${stats.expectancy:,.2f}", False), ("Sharpe Ratio", f"{stats.sharpe_ratio:.2f}", False), ] row = 5 for label, value, is_header in summary_data: ws.cell(row=row, column=1, value=label) ws.cell(row=row, column=2, value=value) if is_header: ws.cell(row=row, column=1).font = subheader_font ws.cell(row=row, column=1).fill = subheader_fill ws.cell(row=row, column=2).fill = subheader_fill row += 1 ws.column_dimensions["A"].width = 26 ws.column_dimensions["B"].width = 18 # Exit reasons exit_counts = {} for t in stats.trades: r = t.exit_reason.value exit_counts[r] = exit_counts.get(r, 0) + 1 ws.cell(row=5, column=4, value="Exit Reasons").font = subheader_font ws.cell(row=5, column=4).fill = subheader_fill row = 6 for reason, count in sorted(exit_counts.items(), key=lambda x: -x[1]): pct = count / stats.total_trades * 100 if stats.total_trades > 0 else 0 ws.cell(row=row, column=4, value=reason) ws.cell(row=row, column=5, value=count) ws.cell(row=row, column=6, value=f"{pct:.1f}%") row += 1 # Trade Log sheet ws2 = wb.create_sheet("Trade Log") headers = [ "Ticket", "Entry Time", "Exit Time", "Dir", "Entry", "Exit", "SL", "TP", "Lot", "Profit ($)", "Pips", "Result", "Exit Reason", "Comp Score", "Regime", "Session", "Signal", "BOS", "CHoCH", "FVG", "OB", "ATR", "RR", "Mode", ] for col, h in enumerate(headers, 1): cell = ws2.cell(row=1, column=col, value=h) cell.font = header_font cell.fill = header_fill cell.alignment = Alignment(horizontal="center") for ri, t in enumerate(stats.trades, 2): vals = [ t.ticket, t.entry_time.strftime("%Y-%m-%d %H:%M"), t.exit_time.strftime("%Y-%m-%d %H:%M"), t.direction, t.entry_price, t.exit_price, t.stop_loss, t.take_profit, t.lot_size, round(t.profit_usd, 2), round(t.profit_pips, 1), t.result.value, t.exit_reason.value, round(t.compression_score, 1), t.regime, t.session, t.signal_reason, "Y" if t.has_bos else "", "Y" if t.has_choch else "", "Y" if t.has_fvg else "", "Y" if t.has_ob else "", round(t.atr_at_entry, 2), round(t.rr_ratio, 2), t.trading_mode, ] for ci, v in enumerate(vals, 1): cell = ws2.cell(row=ri, column=ci, value=v) cell.border = border if ci == 10 and isinstance(v, (int, float)): cell.fill = win_fill if v > 0 else (loss_fill if v < 0 else PatternFill()) for col in range(1, len(headers) + 1): ws2.column_dimensions[get_column_letter(col)].width = max(11, len(headers[col-1]) + 3) # Equity Curve sheet ws3 = wb.create_sheet("Equity Curve") for c, h in enumerate(["Trade #", "Equity", "Drawdown ($)"], 1): ws3.cell(row=1, column=c, value=h).font = header_font ws3.cell(row=1, column=c).fill = header_fill peak = stats.equity_curve[0] if stats.equity_curve else 5000 for idx, eq in enumerate(stats.equity_curve): if eq > peak: peak = eq ws3.cell(row=idx+2, column=1, value=idx) ws3.cell(row=idx+2, column=2, value=round(eq, 2)) ws3.cell(row=idx+2, column=3, value=round(peak - eq, 2)) if len(stats.equity_curve) > 1: chart = LineChart() chart.title = "Equity Curve" chart.style = 10 chart.y_axis.title = "Equity ($)" chart.width = 30 chart.height = 15 data = Reference(ws3, min_col=2, min_row=1, max_row=len(stats.equity_curve)+1) chart.add_data(data, titles_from_data=True) chart.series[0].graphicalProperties.line.width = 20000 ws3.add_chart(chart, "E2") wb.save(filepath) print(f"\n Report saved: {filepath}") # ─── Main ────────────────────────────────────────────────────── def main(): print("=" * 70) print("XAUBOT AI — #15 SMC + RTM Compression Filter") print("Base: SMC-Only v4 | Added: RTM Compression entry filter") print("=" * 70) config = get_config() mt5 = MT5Connector( login=config.mt5_login, password=config.mt5_password, server=config.mt5_server, path=config.mt5_path, ) mt5.connect() print(f"\nConnected to MT5") print("Fetching XAUUSD M15 historical data...") df = mt5.get_market_data(symbol="XAUUSD", timeframe="M15", count=50000) if len(df) == 0: print("ERROR: No data received") mt5.disconnect() return print(f" Received {len(df)} bars") times = df["time"].to_list() print(f" Data range: {times[0]} to {times[-1]}") end_date = datetime.now() start_date = datetime(2025, 8, 1) data_start = times[0] if hasattr(data_start, 'replace') and data_start.tzinfo: start_date = start_date.replace(tzinfo=data_start.tzinfo) end_date = end_date.replace(tzinfo=data_start.tzinfo) if data_start > start_date: start_date = data_start + timedelta(days=5) print(f"\n Backtest period: {start_date.strftime('%Y-%m-%d')} to {end_date.strftime('%Y-%m-%d')}") print("\nCalculating indicators...") features = FeatureEngineer() smc = SMCAnalyzer(swing_length=config.smc.swing_length, ob_lookback=config.smc.ob_lookback) df = features.calculate_all(df, include_ml_features=True) df = smc.calculate_all(df) regime_detector = MarketRegimeDetector(model_path="models/hmm_regime.pkl") try: regime_detector.load() df = regime_detector.predict(df) print(" HMM regime loaded") except Exception: print(" [WARN] HMM not available") print(" Indicators calculated") backtest = CompressionBacktest( capital=5000.0, max_daily_loss_percent=5.0, max_loss_per_trade_percent=1.0, base_lot_size=0.01, max_lot_size=0.02, recovery_lot_size=0.01, breakeven_pips=30.0, trail_start_pips=50.0, trail_step_pips=30.0, min_profit_to_protect=5.0, max_drawdown_from_peak=50.0, trade_cooldown_bars=10, trend_reversal_mult=0.6, # Compression params compression_lookback=8, compression_min_score=40.0, ) stats = backtest.run(df=df, start_date=start_date, end_date=end_date, initial_capital=5000.0) net_pnl = stats.total_profit - stats.total_loss total_signals = stats.compression_passed + stats.compression_blocked print("\n" + "=" * 70) print("#15 SMC + COMPRESSION FILTER — RESULTS") print("=" * 70) print(f"\n Compression Filter:") print(f" Total SMC signals: {total_signals}") print(f" Blocked (no comp): {stats.compression_blocked}") print(f" Passed (compressed):{stats.compression_passed}") filter_rate = stats.compression_blocked / total_signals * 100 if total_signals > 0 else 0 print(f" Filter rate: {filter_rate:.1f}%") print(f" Avg comp score: {stats.avg_compression_score:.1f}") print(f"\n Performance:") print(f" Total Trades: {stats.total_trades}") print(f" Wins: {stats.wins}") print(f" Losses: {stats.losses}") print(f" Win Rate: {stats.win_rate:.1f}%") print(f"\n Profit/Loss:") print(f" Total Profit: ${stats.total_profit:,.2f}") print(f" Total Loss: ${stats.total_loss:,.2f}") print(f" Net PnL: ${net_pnl:,.2f}") print(f" Profit Factor: {stats.profit_factor:.2f}") print(f"\n Risk Metrics:") print(f" Max Drawdown: {stats.max_drawdown:.1f}% (${stats.max_drawdown_usd:,.2f})") print(f" Avg Win: ${stats.avg_win:,.2f}") print(f" Avg Loss: ${stats.avg_loss:,.2f}") print(f" Expectancy: ${stats.expectancy:,.2f}") print(f" Sharpe Ratio: {stats.sharpe_ratio:.2f}") print(f"\n Sync Metrics:") print(f" Avoided (AVOID): {stats.avoided_signals}") print(f" Recovery Trades: {stats.recovery_mode_trades}") print(f" Daily Limit Stops:{stats.daily_limit_stops}") print(f"\n vs BASELINE (#1): ${net_pnl - 1449.86:+,.2f}") print(f"\n Exit Reasons:") exit_counts = {} for t in stats.trades: r = t.exit_reason.value exit_counts[r] = exit_counts.get(r, 0) + 1 for reason, count in sorted(exit_counts.items(), key=lambda x: -x[1]): pct = count / stats.total_trades * 100 if stats.total_trades > 0 else 0 print(f" {reason:20s}: {count} ({pct:.1f}%)") print(f"\n Direction:") for d in ["BUY", "SELL"]: dt = [t for t in stats.trades if t.direction == d] dw = sum(1 for t in dt if t.result == TradeResult.WIN) dp = sum(t.profit_usd for t in dt) dwr = dw / len(dt) * 100 if dt else 0 print(f" {d}: {len(dt)} trades, {dwr:.1f}% WR, ${dp:,.2f}") timestamp = datetime.now().strftime("%Y%m%d_%H%M%S") output_dir = os.path.join(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)), "15_compression_results") os.makedirs(output_dir, exist_ok=True) log_path = os.path.join(output_dir, f"compression_{timestamp}.log") xlsx_path = os.path.join(output_dir, f"compression_{timestamp}.xlsx") # Simple log lines = [] lines.append("=" * 80) lines.append("#15 SMC + RTM Compression Filter — Backtest Log") lines.append("=" * 80) lines.append(f"Period: {start_date.strftime('%Y-%m-%d')} to {end_date.strftime('%Y-%m-%d')}") lines.append(f"Compression: lookback=8, min_score=40") lines.append(f"") lines.append(f"Compression Filter: {stats.compression_blocked} blocked, {stats.compression_passed} passed ({filter_rate:.1f}% filtered)") lines.append(f"Avg Compression Score: {stats.avg_compression_score:.1f}") lines.append(f"") lines.append(f"Trades: {stats.total_trades} | WR: {stats.win_rate:.1f}% | Net: ${net_pnl:,.2f}") lines.append(f"PF: {stats.profit_factor:.2f} | DD: {stats.max_drawdown:.1f}% | Sharpe: {stats.sharpe_ratio:.2f}") lines.append(f"Avg Win: ${stats.avg_win:,.2f} | Avg Loss: ${stats.avg_loss:,.2f}") lines.append(f"vs Baseline: ${net_pnl - 1449.86:+,.2f}") lines.append("") lines.append("--- TRADE LOG ---") lines.append(f"{'#':>4} {'Entry Time':>16} {'Dir':>4} {'Entry':>10} {'Exit':>10} {'P/L($)':>8} {'Result':>6} {'Exit Reason':>18} {'CmpScore':>8}") lines.append("-" * 110) for idx, t in enumerate(stats.trades, 1): lines.append( f"{idx:4d} {t.entry_time.strftime('%Y-%m-%d %H:%M'):>16} {t.direction:>4} " f"{t.entry_price:>10.2f} {t.exit_price:>10.2f} {t.profit_usd:>8.2f} " f"{t.result.value:>6} {t.exit_reason.value:>18} {t.compression_score:>8.1f}" ) with open(log_path, "w", encoding="utf-8") as f: f.write("\n".join(lines)) print(f" Log saved: {log_path}") generate_xlsx_report(stats, xlsx_path, start_date, end_date) mt5.disconnect() print("\n" + "=" * 70) print(f"Output: {output_dir}") print("=" * 70) print("Backtest complete!") if __name__ == "__main__": main()