fix(v0.2.5): monotonic loss ratchet + golden session + never-profitable grace

- Fix #3: Grace period capped at 2min for trades that NEVER saw profit
- Fix #4: effective_max_loss and max_atr_loss can only tighten (monotonic)
- Golden Session: loss_mult*0.70, profit_mult*0.85, grace*0.60
- market_context now includes is_golden, session_name, session_volatility
- Enhanced dynamic log with [GOLDEN] tag, ratchet values, ever_profitable

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
GifariKemal
2026-02-11 20:30:50 +07:00
co-authored by Claude Opus 4.6
parent 7b751e4c41
commit cd9f58fe82
4 changed files with 94 additions and 4 deletions
+38
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@@ -9,6 +9,44 @@ and this project adheres to [Semantic Versioning](https://semver.org/spec/v2.0.0
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## [0.2.5] - 2026-02-11
### Fixed (Professor AI Analysis: Golden Session + Loss Protection)
**Problem:** v0.2.4 caused -$17.52 loss in 8 minutes during Golden Session (London-NY Overlap).
Two trades (#162324181: -$8.20, #162333556: -$9.32) both with SMC 63% (FVG only), ML HOLD 50%.
#### Root Cause Analysis
1. **Grace period too long for never-profitable trades** — 5 min grace given to trade that NEVER saw profit
2. **Max loss WIDENED during trade** — Dynamic multiplier changed from "declining"→"stalling", widening stop from $7.9→$8.8
3. **Golden Session (20:00-00:00 WIB) has extreme volatility** — No special handling despite ATR 1.20x+
#### Fix #3: Grace Period for Never-Profitable Trades
- Added `ever_profitable` field to PositionGuard (true once profit > $0.50)
- Trades that were NEVER profitable: grace capped at **2 minutes max** (was 5-8 min)
- Trades that were once profitable: normal grace (regime-based)
#### Fix #4: Monotonic Max Loss Ratchet
- Added `tightest_max_loss` and `tightest_atr_loss` fields to PositionGuard
- `effective_max_loss` can only TIGHTEN (shrink), never widen back
- `max_atr_loss` can only TIGHTEN, never widen back
- Prevents: trade state changing from "declining"→"stalling" widening the stop
#### Golden Session Special Handling
- `market_context` now includes `is_golden`, `session_name`, `session_volatility`
- During Golden Session (London-NY Overlap):
- `loss_mult *= 0.70` — 30% tighter max loss tolerance
- `profit_mult *= 0.85` — Take profit slightly sooner (fast reversals)
- Grace period reduced by 40% (`grace *= 0.60`)
- Combined with Fix #3: never-profitable trade in Golden = 2 min max grace
- Enhanced dynamic log shows: `[GOLDEN]` tag, ratchet values, ever_profitable status
#### Expected Impact
- **Trade #162324181 scenario:** Grace 5m → 1.2m (golden×never-profitable), max_loss $8.8 → stays at $7.9
- **Trade #162333556 scenario:** Grace 5m → 1.2m, tighter stop = earlier exit = smaller loss
- **Net reduction:** -$17.52 → estimated -$8 to -$12 (30-55% improvement)
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## [0.2.4] - 2026-02-11
### Fixed (CRITICAL: Restore TRUE SMC-Only Logic)