fix: restore TRUE SMC-only logic (v0.2.4)

CRITICAL FIX: v0.2.3 was still blocking SMC signals!

Problem:
- v0.2.3 had 3-tier logic that BLOCKS SMC 60-75% if ML disagrees
- Signal BUY 63% + ML HOLD 50% was BLOCKED (wrong!)
- Original v4 intention: SMC-only, ML for boost only

Root Cause:
- v0.2.3 logic still required ML agreement for medium tier
- This contradicts "SMC patokan utama, ML pendukung"

Solution v0.2.4:
- Single threshold: SMC >= 55% executes ALWAYS
- ML role: OPTIONAL boost (average) or ignored
- SELL filter: Only exception (requires ML >= 75%)
- No more tiers, no more ML blocking

Impact:
- SMC BUY 63% + ML HOLD → Now EXECUTES (was blocked)
- True SMC-only mode restored
- ML is reference/boost only

Files:
- main_live.py: Logic v6 (SMC-only)
- VERSION: 0.2.3 → 0.2.4
- CHANGELOG.md: Full documentation

User feedback: "Perasaan tadi sebelum perbaikan, kita
mengabaikan ML dan fokus SMC saja" - NOW CORRECT!

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

CHANGELOG.md

@@ -9,6 +9,87 @@ and this project adheres to [Semantic Versioning](https://semver.org/spec/v2.0.0
 
 ---
 
+## [0.2.4] - 2026-02-11
+
+### Fixed (CRITICAL: Restore TRUE SMC-Only Logic)
+**User Discovery:** v0.2.3 logic was WRONG - still blocking SMC signals based on ML!
+
+#### Problem Identified
+- **User:** "Perasaan tadi sebelum perbaikan, kita mengabaikan ML dan fokus SMC saja"
+- **Investigation:** v0.2.3 still had 3-tier logic that BLOCKS SMC 60-75% if ML disagrees
+- **Original v4:** ML filters DISABLED - SMC signal = immediate trade (except SELL filter)
+- **v0.2.3 mistake:** Added medium tier that requires ML agreement (WRONG!)
+
+#### Root Cause Analysis
+```python
+# ORIGINAL v4 (CORRECT - SMC-Only):
+if smc_signal:
+    if ml_agrees:
+        confidence = avg(smc, ml)  # Boost
+    else:
+        confidence = smc  # Use SMC as-is
+    execute()  # ALWAYS execute
+
+# v0.2.3 (WRONG - Still blocking):
+if smc >= 75%:
+    execute()
+elif smc 60-75%:
+    if ml_agrees:  # ← WRONG! This blocks trades!
+        execute()
+    else:
+        skip()  # ← Blocked signal 63% wrongly!
+```
+
+#### Example Impact
+- **Signal:** SMC BUY 63%, ML HOLD 50%
+- **v0.2.3 behavior:** ❌ BLOCKED (medium tier needs ML confirm)
+- **Should be:** ✅ EXECUTE (SMC-only mode)
+
+#### Solution Implemented
+
+**Logic v6 - TRUE SMC-Only:**
+```python
+if smc_signal and smc_conf >= 0.55:
+    # SELL filter (only exception)
+    if signal == "SELL":
+        if ml_signal != "SELL" or ml_conf < 0.75:
+            skip()  # SELL safety filter
+
+    # For all other signals: ML is OPTIONAL boost
+    if ml_agrees:
+        confidence = avg(smc, ml)  # Boost
+    else:
+        confidence = smc  # Use SMC as-is (ML IGNORED)
+
+    execute()  # ALWAYS execute if SMC >= 55%
+```
+
+**Key Changes:**
+- ❌ Removed: 3-tier logic (HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW)
+- ✅ Added: Single threshold (>= 55%)
+- ✅ ML role: OPTIONAL boost only (not blocker)
+- ✅ SELL filter: Only exception (requires ML >= 75%)
+
+**Expected Behavior:**
+| SMC | ML | v0.2.3 (Wrong) | v0.2.4 (Correct) |
+|-----|-----|----------------|------------------|
+| BUY 63% | HOLD 50% | ❌ BLOCKED | ✅ EXECUTE (conf 63%) |
+| BUY 75% | HOLD 50% | ✅ EXECUTE (conf 71%) | ✅ EXECUTE (conf 75%) |
+| BUY 80% | BUY 70% | ✅ EXECUTE (conf 75%) | ✅ EXECUTE (conf 75%) |
+| SELL 75% | HOLD 50% | ✅ EXECUTE | ❌ BLOCKED (safety) |
+
+**Files Modified:**
+- `main_live.py` - Signal logic v6 (line 1940-2010)
+- `VERSION` - Updated to 0.2.4
+- `CHANGELOG.md` - This entry
+
+**User Feedback Integration:**
+- ✅ "Mengabaikan ML" - ML truly ignored (except SELL safety)
+- ✅ "Fokus SMC saja" - SMC >= 55% executes always
+- ✅ Original v4 intention restored
+
+---
+
 ## [0.2.3] - 2026-02-11
 
 ### Fixed (SMC Primary Strategy Restoration)

VERSION

@@ -1 +1 @@
-0.2.3
+0.2.4

data/bot.lock

@@ -1 +1 @@
-14108
+604

data/risk_state.txt

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 date:2026-02-11
-daily_loss:6.68
+daily_loss:6.9799999999999995
 daily_profit:37.12000000000001
-consecutive_losses:0
+consecutive_losses:1
-total_loss:0
+total_loss:0.3
-saved_at:2026-02-11T18:23:41.105395+07:00
+saved_at:2026-02-11T19:27:05.033750+07:00

main_live.py

@@ -1938,17 +1938,24 @@ class TradingBot:
                 )
 
         # ============================================================
-        # SIGNAL LOGIC v5 - SMC PRIMARY, ML SECONDARY
+        # SIGNAL LOGIC v6 - SMC-ONLY (TRUE SMC MASTER)
         # ============================================================
-        # Philosophy: SMC is the CORE strategy, ML is support/filter
+        # Philosophy: SMC is MASTER, ML is OPTIONAL boost/reference only
-        # - SMC confidence >= 75% -> EXECUTE (high conviction)
+        # - SMC signal exists (>= 55% conf) -> EXECUTE
-        # - SMC confidence 60-75% -> Require ML agreement to boost
+        # - ML agrees -> Boost confidence (average)
-        # - SMC confidence < 60% -> Skip (SMC not confident)
+        # - ML disagrees -> Use SMC confidence (ML IGNORED)
+        # - Exception: SELL requires ML >= 75% (safety filter)
         # ============================================================
         golden_marker = "[GOLDEN] " if is_golden_time else ""
         if smc_signal is not None:
             smc_conf = smc_signal.confidence
 
+            # Skip if SMC confidence too low (< 55%)
+            if smc_conf < 0.55:
+                if self._loop_count % 120 == 0:
+                    logger.info(f"[SMC LOW] {smc_signal.signal_type} confidence {smc_conf:.0%} < 55% -> Skip")
+                return None
+
             # Check ML agreement
             ml_agrees = (
                 (smc_signal.signal_type == "BUY" and ml_prediction.signal == "BUY") or
@@ -1956,75 +1963,51 @@ class TradingBot:
             )
 
             # ============================================================
-            # SMC HIGH CONFIDENCE (>= 75%) - EXECUTE DIRECTLY
+            # SELL-SPECIFIC SAFETY FILTER
             # ============================================================
-            if smc_conf >= 0.75:
+            # SELL signals require ML >= 75% (historically poor win rate)
-                # SMC is very confident -> Execute regardless of ML
+            if smc_signal.signal_type == "SELL":
-                if ml_agrees:
+                if ml_prediction.signal != "SELL" or ml_prediction.confidence < 0.75:
-                    combined_confidence = (smc_conf + ml_prediction.confidence) / 2
-                    reason_suffix = f" | ML BOOST: {ml_prediction.signal} ({ml_prediction.confidence:.0%})"
-                else:
-                    combined_confidence = smc_conf * 0.95  # Minor penalty for ML disagree
-                    reason_suffix = f" | ML disagree: {ml_prediction.signal} ({ml_prediction.confidence:.0%})"
-
-                # Apply London penalty if applicable
-                combined_confidence *= london_penalty
-
-                logger.info(
-                    f"{golden_marker}[SMC PRIMARY] {smc_signal.signal_type} @ {smc_signal.entry_price:.2f} "
-                    f"(SMC={smc_conf:.0%}, ML={ml_prediction.signal} {ml_prediction.confidence:.0%}, "
-                    f"Final={combined_confidence:.0%})"
-                )
-
-                return SMCSignal(
-                    signal_type=smc_signal.signal_type,
-                    entry_price=smc_signal.entry_price,
-                    stop_loss=smc_signal.stop_loss,
-                    take_profit=smc_signal.take_profit,
-                    confidence=combined_confidence,
-                    reason=f"SMC-PRIMARY: {smc_signal.reason}{reason_suffix}",
-                )
-
-            # ============================================================
-            # SMC MEDIUM CONFIDENCE (60-75%) - REQUIRE ML AGREEMENT
-            # ============================================================
-            elif smc_conf >= 0.60:
-                # SMC moderately confident -> Need ML confirmation
-                if ml_agrees and ml_prediction.confidence >= 0.60:
-                    # Both agree -> Take the trade
-                    combined_confidence = (smc_conf + ml_prediction.confidence) / 2
-                    combined_confidence *= london_penalty
-
-                    logger.info(
-                        f"{golden_marker}[SMC+ML CONFIRM] {smc_signal.signal_type} @ {smc_signal.entry_price:.2f} "
-                        f"(SMC={smc_conf:.0%}, ML={ml_prediction.signal} {ml_prediction.confidence:.0%}, "
-                        f"Final={combined_confidence:.0%})"
-                    )
-
-                    return SMCSignal(
-                        signal_type=smc_signal.signal_type,
-                        entry_price=smc_signal.entry_price,
-                        stop_loss=smc_signal.stop_loss,
-                        take_profit=smc_signal.take_profit,
-                        confidence=combined_confidence,
-                        reason=f"SMC+ML: {smc_signal.reason} | ML confirms",
-                    )
-                else:
-                    # ML doesn't agree -> Skip (SMC not strong enough alone)
                     if self._loop_count % 60 == 0:
                         logger.info(
-                            f"[SMC MEDIUM SKIP] SMC {smc_signal.signal_type} {smc_conf:.0%} needs ML confirm, "
+                            f"[SELL FILTER] SELL blocked: ML {ml_prediction.signal} "
-                            f"but ML says {ml_prediction.signal} {ml_prediction.confidence:.0%}"
+                            f"{ml_prediction.confidence:.0%} (need SELL >=75%)"
                         )
                     return None
 
             # ============================================================
-            # SMC LOW CONFIDENCE (< 60%) - SKIP
+            # CALCULATE FINAL CONFIDENCE (SMC-ONLY MODE)
             # ============================================================
+            if ml_agrees:
+                # ML boosts confidence (average SMC + ML)
+                combined_confidence = (smc_conf + ml_prediction.confidence) / 2
+                reason_suffix = f" | ML BOOST: {ml_prediction.signal} ({ml_prediction.confidence:.0%})"
             else:
-                if self._loop_count % 120 == 0:
+                # ML ignored, use SMC confidence as-is
-                    logger.info(f"[SMC LOW] {smc_signal.signal_type} confidence {smc_conf:.0%} < 60% -> Skip")
+                combined_confidence = smc_conf
-                return None
+                reason_suffix = f" | ML: {ml_prediction.signal} ({ml_prediction.confidence:.0%})"
+
+            # Apply London penalty if applicable
+            combined_confidence *= london_penalty
+
+            # Apply regime adjustment for high volatility
+            if regime_state and regime_state.regime == MarketRegime.HIGH_VOLATILITY:
+                combined_confidence *= 0.9
+
+            logger.info(
+                f"{golden_marker}[SMC-ONLY] {smc_signal.signal_type} @ {smc_signal.entry_price:.2f} "
+                f"(SMC={smc_conf:.0%}, ML={ml_prediction.signal} {ml_prediction.confidence:.0%}, "
+                f"Final={combined_confidence:.0%})"
+            )
+
+            return SMCSignal(
+                signal_type=smc_signal.signal_type,
+                entry_price=smc_signal.entry_price,
+                stop_loss=smc_signal.stop_loss,
+                take_profit=smc_signal.take_profit,
+                confidence=combined_confidence,
+                reason=f"SMC-ONLY: {smc_signal.reason}{reason_suffix}",
+            )
 
         # No valid signal
         return None